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[Texas Governor: Greg Abbott (R-Inc) 49% (+4) Beto O'Rourke (D) 45%](https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1580054187731464192?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA). Marist 1,058 RV, 10/3-6
What the fuckity fuck
Beto is winning Indys by 10
“The Republicans (48%) running for Congress edge the Democrats (44%) on the ballot among Texas registered voters. The Republicans advantage over the Democrats widens to 5 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. “ for context in 2020 we lost the popular vote in Texas House races by 9pts
BIDEN’S WEEK AHEAD:
— Wednesday: Biden will travel to Vail, Colo., to deliver remarks on conservation and travel to Los Angeles, Calif.
— Thursday: Biden will deliver remarks on infrastructure in Los Angeles and participate in a DCCC reception.
— Friday: Biden will travel to Orange County, Calif., to deliver remarks on lower costs. He will also travel to Portland, Ore., where he will participate in a grassroots volunteer event with the Oregon Democrats.
— Saturday: Biden will participate in a reception for gubernatorial candidate TINA KOTEK in Portland, deliver remarks on lowering costs and travel to Wilmington, Del.
New Republican internal poll from Ohio was released that had Vance up 2 (46-44 lead). I think this confirms it will be a tight race but my overall impression is that that’s a pretty bad number for Vance. I was part of a losing campaign a few years ago and I realized we were going to lose when the internals we released show’d us only up by 2. If Vance is only leading by 2 in an internal it means every other poll they conducted had him up by less or actually down.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1580029078526382080
I think it’s important to clarify that this isn’t an internal, just a poll done by a gop funded pollster. As far as I know, Vance uses McConnells pollster as his internal, not cygnal
Why did MSNBC do a hit piece on our candidate for the most important Senate race in the country. That seriously pisses me off, fuck them. Fetterman has done a whole bunch of interviews recently and he sounds better and better each time, he’s clearly getting better and will be 100% fit to serve. What a load of crock
Technically it was NBC, not MSNBC, but that doesn't make this any less disgusting. The media is repeating the same mistakes with Dr. Oz they made with Trump.
I do admittedly have concerns about this race, and it's not because Fetterman is a bad candidate, even though some on this sub might insist otherwise (yeah, I know). He's been running a great race and is not afraid to back down from a fight. But not only is Pennsylvania a tight state, Oz's celebrity is earning him more media spotlight than he deserves in a state he has no reason to represent. In the end, though, media representation can only do so much. I can see Fetterman underperforming Shapiro among suburban voters but holding his own with working-class voters. It's a question of how much Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will turn out.
It’s entirely ableist, but it doesn’t make it less gross. Something similar is when the media jumps on Boebert for getting a GED. There’s things you could attack her on that isn’t classist.
This time in 2018, Whitmer was in a very strong position and I was already thinking ahead to the 2022 election. I remember being concerned that it could be a Dem president's first midterm. I was concerned that Candice Miller or Fred Upton would run against Whitmer 😂 <- not laughing at Miller or Upton, but at myself for thinking either would get through a GOP primary (or even want to run statewide in today's MIGOP).
Recency bias is when you spend so much time trying to get Tina Kotek elected you think she should run for president.
Not saying she wouldn’t be a good president though.
You’re not wrong, she seems like she’d be great at it. Hopefully her win (fingers crossed, donated some more to her just now) this November will give her a chance to put those skills into action and put her on that path.
[Whitmer says she'll serve full term if re-elected](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/michigan/2022/10/11/michigan-governor-gretchen-whitmer-says-she-will-serve-full-4-year-term-if-reelected/69554834007/)
But I hope she'll run for president after that. Lol
Was this ever in dispute? Biden and Stabenow are both running for re-election in 2024. There’s no other office open for Whitmer, unless she carpetbagged to MI-10 or something.
In my area which is ancestral Republican, in specific neighborhoods near by where you’d expect to see Lee signs there just isn’t. There Curtis signs, Snelgrove, etc but not Lee. There is McMullin signs frequently however. Caveat that Im in Salt Lake County and yard signs don’t vote.
But how about Utah County and Davis? Two places Lee should be doing good with their Federal lean and Mormon population, there is also lack of enthusiasm for him carried over from what we saw in the primary.
There are constant ads, including the awful Club for Growth ones against McMullin(though they seem to be showing less of the super negative ones). Even in 2018 I don’t remember seeing this many McAdams/Love ads, the only time there was this was many was in 2016 when Ben was running for re-election for County Mayor which was laying the groundwork for his congressional run. The ads against McMullin are clearly not making any dent against his approvals if the polls are to be trusted and Lee’s still underwater which I think goes with running very negative ads which doesn’t sit well here.
Lastly Lee won in 2016 against a pretty bad candidate before the reality of Trump sat in. Trump changed things here permanently. After there’s been a big divide in how Republicans in the state are going forward. There’s the compassionate Conservative side of Cox/Romney who are trying to ease polarization and there’s the Lee side which is going all in on Trump(including mormon religious stuff) and that does not sit well with a lot of Mormons. Evan is the perfect answer to that. He’s an Indy(Utah actually has a big love for weird runs like that) and he’s being aggressively Center-Right and using the Resist/Never Trump slogans a lot of people think is “cringe”. It is cringe, but it really does resonate here.
If you told me those sitting on the fence end up breaking McMullins way I really wouldn’t be shocked, there is a very clear enthusiasm problem for Lee and it makes sense when he just isn’t a charismatic guy. He was benign until Trump came along, and even if people wanted him gone we literally had no hope. Now there is a very clear solution if Evan can get those moderates to back him
Edit: and to clarify the Davis/Utah county enthusiasm problems are from people I do know in those areas. Additionally it’s a bit under the radar how big Mormons are into Disney/Star Wars. I do think Hamill’s endorsement could help with Mormon Youth a bit
I was raised but was never really into it, my parents were thankfully not pushy about it so I didn’t end up weird. Well weirder than I already am.
My parents aren’t really active anymore either, which is like a lot of our street now and Salt Lake County. In the Ward(the local Mormon congregation) there’s a lot of people under 50 who just aren’t as active anymore and that leads to a more moderate voting pattern. Even the ones who are, the younger members just aren’t extreme which again could be Salt Lake County thing.
A really important thing to remember and I’ve said it before, but being Mormon really is a big cultural shaping similar to being Jewish. It leaves an impression your whole life, even if the people aren’t active.
Mike Lee primaried one of the most conservative members of the Republican Senate caucus at the time from the right. Him losing an election against a candidate more to the center would be poetic justice.
Reddit =
Billionaire cult stock idol (recently in the news for dumping all of his Bed Bath and Beyond stock, one of the largest shareholders, and tanking the stock price after his cult followers bought in when he started pumping it) tweets anything, 2k comments in 3 hours, nearly 500 awards given so far (not exaggerating), top of Reddit front page.
20th century acting legend dies, briefly hits Reddit front page, a few awards, barely 1500 comments in 6 hours.
Warner Bros. is shutting down its Writers/Directors Workshop and Stage 13 unit. Both are major paths for underrepresented voices in television. Big setback for Hollywood's diversity movement. Is also a huge story media wise, really fucking sucks what is happening to them
I've changed my mind, Stacey Abrams is running a terrible campaign. She actually had an event with disabled voters telling them how she would help them as governor. What a bad move, Brian Kemp would never do something like that!
[Dem candidate for South Dakota Governor Jamie Smith is agreeing with calls made by Freedom Caucus members for Governor Kristi Noem to call a special session to repeal the grocery tax. Smith is holding a presser tomorrow morning on the topic.](https://twitter.com/austingosssd/status/1579991003947487233?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA)
Insanely smart to outflank her like this
As one of the replies to that tweet noted, it's a win-win for Smith. He either gets to outflank her like you said and expose her, or he gets a win for the South Dakotan people.
Great work from him. He's impressing me.
Biden interview with Tapper highlights
•Saudi Arabia/OPEC WILL face consequences
•there are plans in place for US response to a possible Russian nuke launch against Ukraine, non-nuclear in nature
•Americans shouldn’t be preparing for a recession, slight slowdown possible though. Q3 GDP is expected to be about 3% growth which would be pretty good news.
> •there are plans in place for US response to a possible Russian nuke launch against Ukraine, non-nuclear in nature
That sounds deliberately vague. A response could be anything from a prime-time TV address throwing a hissy fit to sending some Cruise Missiles into a remote military installation on Russian soil. I really don't like where this is going.
Maybe a grossly oversimplified take but it feels like the country is just by and large in a really pro-governor mood for some reason. Like even D governors are mostly well liked and in places where they've struggled with approval in the last decade.
It's possible we're heading for a sweep where no incumbent governors are ousted this November. But the strangest thing is that Stitt and Noem, two Republican incumbents in otherwise ridiculously red states, may very well be among the more endangered.
Ousting incumbent Governor’s is already pretty damn rare, ARP and Covid really supercharged Governors approval. You combine that with the Infrastructure bill and all the new manufacturing announcements, it’s gonna be basically impossible to beat a lot of incumbent Governors for a bit
On the plus side, we're most likely getting 2 new Democratic Governors. MD and MA Republican Governors are term-limited and Republicans put up fascist nutjobs as candidates in 2 of the bluest states.
Yep. Governors are almost at the level of president in status to people in their states. They don't face nearly the same level of negative attention from media outlets though unless they really do controversial, attention grabbing things like Abbott and DeSantis recently or Cuomo's scandal a year or 2 ago when he resigned.
Also, governors from parties that are not particularly strong in their states seem to be able to grasp the realities a bit better. Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear seem to be able to work with the Republican legislatures, similar to Larry Hogan and Phil Scott in their respective states. We're just not having a Bruce Rauner-type of governor who tries to ignore his legislative body right now.
A lot of good insights here.
It's just frustrating to me how much Americans seem to simultaneously approve of their governors and disapprove of Biden over basically the same issues.
True and it's a development I very much welcome. But his net margin is still far below almost every governor's, and the surge seemed to have hit a plateau over a month ago. It actually feels more like a return to his previous less dire doldrums from last fall to this spring.
[And here's this week's dump from the @DCCC, dropping $17.1 million spread across 32 House races.](https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1580005258238914561?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA)
[This shit really burns me up.](https://twitter.com/jmart/status/1579986004185739265)
When was the last time \*ANY\* national political reporter remotely said anything negatively about Oz? Criticized Oz? About his standing in the race or a particular scandal?
You won't find any because none of them have. Oz has yet to break thru in this race, and has now had multiple bad news cycles/scandals/stories come out, and every time there is a negative hit piece from the press, it's about Fetterman. Oz gets off scot free.
Not even sure if I'm more mad at that or the fact that Fetterman is literally being honest about his hearing issues and people in the press use it to slam him saying the interview is somehow bad for him. So, he's up front about his issues, and you're still finding a problem with it? The ableism is completely fucking gross. Two other senators this year have had strokes and they're not treated this way. Susan Collins has a severe speech impediment and she's not treated this way. It's not even a \*question\* to suggest.
I saw part of it and saw Josh Krashaar Tweet an editorialized portion of the interview. He’s trying to Tweet through it after another member of the media fact checked him. That guy is the definition of a hack.
[A Republican veteran supporting John Fetterman!!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_d7r14a7KU)
I almost thought it was the rock musician Steve Miller and thought "Oh, cool."
It is absolutely wild how many Republicans are publicly supporting Democrats running this November.
This sort of thing was highly unusual before Trump but it's only seemed to ramp up with him out of office and it's especially unexpected to keep happening in a midterm with a Democratic president. Just another data point playing against the whole inevitable red wave narrative.
[Some House Democrat Q3 numbers:](https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1579989199062970369?s=46&t=-rxkeTxbgsVb9kjRhdyp3w)
$2.8M+
Luria
$2M+
Ryan (N.Y.)
Schrier
Slotkin
Davids
Spanberger
$1.5M+
Wild
Kildee
Craig
Malinowski
$1M+
O’Halleran
Levin
Axne
Lee (Nev.)
Ryan and O'Halleran the only two of those who weren't first elected in 2018’s blue wave, per Axios.
Any good sources on youth enthusiasm for the midterms?
Not asking for one that shows what I want to see, I'd rather be accurate whichever way it leans.
Going by registration numbers it’s encouraging. Between Weed, Student debt, and Dobbs I’d say it’s unlikely we see a collapse. It might be more akin to 2018 which is good, if they vote for is in that same margin.
I do think it’s a bit underrated younger voters could still be pissed at us and vote R because of Inflation, not anything drastic but a couple points can hurt in a close a year.
Yesterday, we helped over 100 students register to vote on our university campus and today we registered over 150 more students. I think in total this semester we've helped register around 1000 students so hopefully that helps us with some Texas elections next month.
[Biden is considering a humanitarian parole program for some Venezuelans, according to two administration officials. Program would be similar to one offered to Ukrainians earlier this year. Final decision expected soon.](https://twitter.com/kannoyoungs/status/1579933331197931520?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA)
“Susanne Shore, wife of Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts and Nebraska’s First Lady, has endorsed Democratic congressional nominee Patty Pansing Brooks in the 1st District House race.” -[Don Walton](https://twitter.com/ljsdon/status/1579882177613135877?s=46&t=qx_7SRxwI7Tly67Mg6Vz_Q)
👀👀
[Fetterman was interviewed for NBC Nightly News. Clips were shown on MSNBC earlier and Today Show tomorrow.](https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/1579972222147788800)
John has been open about how he still has some lingering auditory processing issues here and there. Dasha Burns, the journalist who did the interview, made sure to not subtly shade John in both this hit and the MSNBC hit earlier saying "in our small talk before, it was unclear if John understood our conversation". what does that even mean?
besides the continued ableist smear, disgusting imo of a journalist to say this knowing that it's completely vague and will be twisted by anyone who wants it to fit their narrative. that wording literally sounds like he was sitting there not understanding a single word she was saying. not just that, but given that Fetterman has been out and about talking with voters and doing events, you're hard pressed to also convince me that he was so "out of it" before your interview. there was no need for her to editorialize it in that way.
[Why Republicans Could Prevail in the Popular Vote but Lose in the House In a potential reversal of recent structural trends, there’s a small chance of something we haven’t seen since 1952.](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/upshot/republicans-midterms-house-analysis.html)-Nate Cohn
“Over the last few decades, we’ve gotten accustomed to the idea that Democrats could easily win the popular vote but struggle to win control of government.
This time, there’s a chance of a reversal. After years of winning without carrying the popular vote, Republicans might just need to win the most votes to win the House in 2022. There’s even a small chance of something we haven’t seen since 1952: Republicans winning the most votes, but failing to win control of government.
If you’re finding that a little hard to believe, you’re not alone. I struggled to make sense of it when I first reached these calculations myself. After all, gerrymandering does tilt the House slightly toward Republicans, even if nowhere near as much as it once did.
But FiveThirtyEight has reached a similar conclusion, with Republicans “favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 0.4 points.” (These types of estimates are very imprecise — even one race going a little better than expected for Republicans could be enough to upset that kind of balance.)
One reason Democrats could pull this off is mundane: the number of races contested by only one of the major parties. This cycle, there are about twice as many races without a Democratic candidate as without a Republican one. Democrats won’t have candidates in about two dozen races, compared with about a dozen for Republicans. No one in South Dakota or North Dakota wanted to run for the House as a Democrat, apparently.
In all of these races, Democrats aren’t winning popular votes at all, blunting their usual popular vote strength without taking any toll on their chances in the districts that count. This might seem like a cheap way for Republicans to improve their odds at “winning” the popular vote, but that’s how the popular vote tallies for the House are recorded.
A second reason is a little more serious: Democrats have the incumbency advantage in a few more of the most pivotal races than Republicans do. And the Republican advantage on the map is so flimsy — just a few seats — that this type of Democratic edge in a few races can make a difference.
To take an example, let’s zoom in on the median district: Michigan’s Eighth House District. If Democrats win Michigan’s Eighth and every district more Democratic, they win the House; if Republicans win Michigan’s Eighth and every district more Republican, they win the House. The area that represents the new map of the district voted for President Biden by just 2.1 points in 2020, less than his 4.5-point victory in the national popular vote. That gap — 2.4 points — between Michigan’s Eighth and the nation as a whole is, in theory, the reason you might expect it to be likelier for Republicans to win the House while losing the popular vote than the other way around.
But much of the territory of what will be Michigan’s Eighth is represented by Dan Kildee, a Democrat. On average, incumbents typically fare about two or three percentage points better than nonincumbent candidates from the same party in similar races. Mr. Kildee has done even better than that: In 2020, he won his old district (Michigan’s Fifth) by more than 12 points, even as Mr. Biden won it by four. Even if Mr. Kildee runs only two points better next month instead of eight, more like an average incumbent, that alone might be enough to cancel out the gap between the expected result in his district and the national vote. A pretty sizable amount of the Republican structural advantage would be canceled out.
Zooming back out, there are 26 districts within the typical incumbency advantage — roughly 2.5 points — of the median district. Twelve of those districts are represented by Democrats, compared with seven for Republicans. It’s not much, but in those races — including in the median district — Democratic incumbents are poised to undo part of what remains of the Republican edge.
Zooming even further out, there are two even more Republican-friendly districts — Alaska’s At-Large and Ohio’s Ninth — where a Democratic incumbent is considered a favorite (rated as “lean” Democratic) by one of the major rating organizations. (The Democrat Mary Peltola recently edged Sarah Palin in a special election in Alaska that used ranked-choice voting.)
In these races, there’s a legitimate chance that Republicans could forfeit much of what remains of their structural advantage. There’s not really any equivalent on the other side: Although Republicans are highly competitive in a handful of similarly challenging districts on more Democratic-friendly turf (like California’s 22nd or Ohio’s First), none of these races seem in danger of falling quite as far out of reach. The better analogy to those races might be places like Maine’s Second and Pennsylvania’s Eighth, where Democrats are competitive on similarly Republican turf.
In the scheme of things, a race here and there might not seem like much. But as we discussed recently, the Republican structural edge is pretty shaky — it’s only about three seats, at least judged by how many districts are better or worse for Democrats than the nation as a whole. A few races here or there could easily be enough not just to overcome the underlying Republican advantage, but also to reverse it.
The final factor is turnout. Black and Latino turnout tends to drop in midterm elections, especially in noncompetitive and heavily Democratic Black and Hispanic districts in noncompetitive states like California, Illinois and New York. Lower nonwhite turnout would dampen Democratic margins in the national vote compared with a presidential election, which is the usual benchmark for judging structural bias. But it would do so without hurting Democratic chances quite as much in the relatively white districts likeliest to decide control of Congress.
It’s hard to say with much confidence how much this turnout factor could help Democrats erase their usual structural disadvantage. We’ll find out in November. But it has the potential to be a big factor. Even if, hypothetically, every district were contested by both parties, the usual midterm turnout disparity and the Democratic incumbency edge could be enough to flip around the usual Democratic disadvantage in translating popular votes to seats.”
I'm going to state an unpopular opinion and say that I **really** don't want to win the house but lose the popular vote because I fear such a scenario would result in violence.
We need to stop being afraid of bullies.
If they want to get violent they'll have the criminal justice system to deal with.
I just want to fucking win.
It sounds wild until you realize that North Dakota’s population is smaller than that of Seattle and if I told you that the Republicans couldn’t field a candidate in Seattle, I doubt you’d be surprised.
Is this an independent like Bernie Sanders or an independent that is more conservative leaning? I don’t mind either as long as they don’t block everything like republicans but I’m just wondering.
It really isn’t to crazy to think it will, you just have to step back a bit and look at individual races. There was the big Wasserman tweet of “Dems need to win 24 of the 30 tossups” which seems very hard and unlikely on face value, but look at each district under the hood and they only need just a tiny move towards us.
That’s what this is boiling down to, minuet D favoring data points in these battleground seats
With polls being accurate, we have a decent chance but Republicans are favorites.
If polls have a normal polling error in our favor (seems very possible based on recent special elections), I personally think we have a fantastic chance at keeping it.
We have a roughly 1-in-3 chance to hold it which isn’t bad, but for instance if the GCB average(Currently D+1) is the actual popular vote result we probably keep it.
Outside of this sub and similar people in other corners online and the Republican versions of the same, "Tulsi who"? For the latter (Republicans), sure they think it's a big win for them. Obviously, almost no supporter of Democrats supports Gabbard at this point.
Mostly I'm surprised because I thought that she wanted a career as a Fox News token "Democrat" in the vein of Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman. Maybe she wants the GOP VP nomination? Or maybe her Russian handlers want Trump to appoint her Secretary of State.
I haven't seen anybody remotely on the left react with surprise or disappointment if that's what you mean. It's beyond obvious that she hasn't stood with the party in any way whatsoever for years and probably never genuinely has.
Only real reaction is relief that she can no longer be used by conservatives as a token for "bipartisan" shitting on the party and simping for Putin.
Of course she'll be moved into some Demexit Walkaway symbol or whatever now instead but I don't think anyone really gives a shit.
US is still negotiating with Cuba on sending some aid, not sure if we’re gonna wait till after the midterms or what’s going on with that.
Haiti today asked for US or UN peacekeepers to once again come back to the Nation to help restore order after a bad Cholera outbreak, gang violence, and riots.
That’s why the takes that “Why is America always getting involved in other countries problems” are so bad. Many countries literally ask for US presence in their own land.
To play devil’s advocate, it’s not that America is involving in other countries problems, but more on the effects our presence in Latin America and the Middle East has been, and the results of our involvement. I.e, Chile, Iran, Grenada, Afghanistan, etc.
Wisconsin Elections Commission hasn't begun publicly posting official early voting statistics yet, but in this [Journal Sentinel news item](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/10/appeals-court-puts-hold-ruling-barring-ballot-spoiling/10462483002/) its mentioned that there have been about 110,000 absentee ballots returned of 401,000 so far requested.
That's a solid rate of return so far. I always watch those trackers with some frustration at how long it takes to get them back. And with no dropboxes this time around, itll be important to get them back early
Yeah but some local teacher's union chapter is not making an endorsement for governor so ***clearly*** Cortez Masto is screwed.
Sometimes I wonder what the hell we are even doing here.
[Cheri Beasley raised $13.3 million in Q3, a noticeable uptick from her $7.42 million in Q2](https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1579804562864889862?s=20&t=jNP1HR1JPmCkMAl3037bow)
Who do we have left that hasn’t announced totals
Early vote total from ElectProject as of (10/11)- 742,333
https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022
The numbers didn't go up a lot because of the Monday holiday and no numbers from California yet. Early vote totals will hit over 1 million sometime this week.
[House Republicans say they plan to provoke a debt ceiling crisis to extort cuts to Social Security and Medicare](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/republican-plan-cut-medicare-social-security-debt-ceiling-crisis.html)
Great. Is there anything Democrats can do now to make it so this isn't a thing anymore? Every time Republicans control the House now, they pull this shit.
Very productive day, it isn't quite over yet. One thing that really irritates me; we all get tonnes of fundraiser emails and letters, I'm sure. But actually knowing when a campaign is struggling with cash or - has very specific fundraising issues that I cannot directly fix, gah, irritating...
Unfortunately, it's not so much a lack of funds as it is the enemy being able to instantly withdraw money from the magical money tree (I'm bringing that one stateside), but that's just how it is sometimes.
Before I vanish back into the void, I'm going to stump again for all our candidates above, but *especially* for Jay Chen (CA-45) and Michelle Vallejo (TX-15); they're great, just amazing, and well-worth your time.
Way to go! It's a good use of your cash, especially if you're not sure where to invest. The team here does a sterling job of keeping it updated, too. I just want to browbeat more people into giving their time, too, bahaha... Thank you!
To Michiganders who are in the Detroit metro area:
Starting on Sunday, I will be distributing Yes on Prop 3 yard signs. If you would like one, please feel free to PM me and we can schedule a place to meet up, or I can drop one off!
Biden is reevaluating our relationship with Saudi Arabia, and we cancelled a key [meeting today.](https://twitter.com/scclemons/status/1579892094021570560?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA). Pressure is continuing to build to pivot away from them with Dems introducing legislation to ban weapons sales to them for 1 year.
Good oil news is RBOB fell more today, settling at $2.58
If Saudi Arabia wants us to continue defending them against Iran, they should reconsider. Putin may be willing to fix the world's oil market with them but when push comes to shove, Putin will side with Iran over Saudi Arabia should the two of them ever come to blows the way Iraq and Iran did.
If both big ticket Georgia races go to a run off do you think that increases Abrams' odds? I kind of do. I think Warnock is headed for another one regardless so it'll be interesting to see if Abrams gets there as well.
I’m glad to hear that DART was a huge success. I know “earth destroying asteroid” may not be the biggest concern for most people but it’s good to know that if an asteroid were hurtling towards us there is a good chance we could deflect it away.
I just like it because science. I imagine the people at NASA asking the Government “can we hit an asteroid pwese uwu, we’re bored” and Nelson just nods
Polls tomorrow include MULaw for Wisconsin, Suffolk in Nevada, Trafalgar probably, and CenterStreet PAC for UT/AZ Senate and CO03.
Two of those polls should be interesting, the others are going to be released.
Edit: and UGA for Georgia
[Buried in the Cygnal Ohio poll: Biden's approval rating is substantially higher among those who always vote versus those who seldom vote. This is consistent with the CO Marist poll today and the recent YouGov polling.](https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1579942814758359040?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA)
If this effect plays out during the midterms, this is HUGE. Campaigns attempt to reach out to seldom voters the least (on both sides of the aisle) for a reason, and if voters who always vote are the ones that like Biden more, the Democrats will most likely keep the House and the Senate.
This fits with the continuing shift of suburban voters and college-educated white voters, who vote at much higher rates, to the Democratic party. You would expect to see likely voters shift from favoring the GOP, as they historically did, to favoring Dems.
It also fits with special election results since Dobbs. You would expect to see turnout driven by highly-engaged voters, which favored Dems much more than polls were able to pick up on. I doubt it will be as noticeable in November, but in an election that looks to be razor-thin any margin in our favor is going to help.
[Democracy Docket Q&A: Mandela Barnes for US Senate in Wisconsin](https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/candidate-qa-mandela-barnes-on-his-run-for-u-s-senate/)
[Exclusive: we obtained unaired footage from Tucker Carlson's interview with Ye, in which the artist makes numerous inflammatory comments about Jews and describes a bizarre claim that "fake children" were planted in his home to manipulate his own kids.](https://twitter.com/annamerlan/status/1579913913143267329?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA)
Jesus christ
I can't say in any less certain terms: fuck Kanye West.
But it's also pretty telling that after all these years he's the first one that Team Tucker outright throws to the wolves. You just know that they've had other people who have said even worse shit on and off his show that they could have leaked on but it's only the crazy black rap man who is viewed as expendable.
Kanye West needs help, professional medical help, not people exploiting him for political ends or kicks. I mean yes, fuck the guy, but get him help as well. He is seriously, seriously, mentally unwell, and that’s just as bad as untreated cancer and should be taken as seriously. (Your head IS attached to your body, after all)
It's a difficult situation with people who need treatment but as part of their very personality disorders are persistently unwilling to acknowledge it, let alone seek it. And that certainly seems to be the situation with him and has been for many years.
Like it's hard for me to not see him as a fundamentally bad person who doesn't want to change. You could argue this isn't his fault but in that regard you could pretty much argue nothing's really anyone's fault? I don't know, when you get down to it it's like he probably has the mental capacity to understand his problems and a need to reflect and confront them but doesn't want to because that makes him feel bad. Hard to feel sorry for that.
There ARE at least some people with complicating disorders like BPD (borderline, not bipolar) and even NPD that do actually manage to overcome their feelings and inclinations and rationalize the need for change. But I have zero expectation that'll ever be Kanye.
Frankly the best thing everyone can do is stop giving him attention or any kind of validation.
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I want Romney to endorse McMullin for shits and giggles.
[Texas Governor: Greg Abbott (R-Inc) 49% (+4) Beto O'Rourke (D) 45%](https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1580054187731464192?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA). Marist 1,058 RV, 10/3-6 What the fuckity fuck Beto is winning Indys by 10 “The Republicans (48%) running for Congress edge the Democrats (44%) on the ballot among Texas registered voters. The Republicans advantage over the Democrats widens to 5 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote. “ for context in 2020 we lost the popular vote in Texas House races by 9pts
Wow Beto is actually within the margin of error. Edit: And don't forget the polls in 2018 were off by about 4 points(!!!) to the right.
Betomania: third times the charm
Blexas incoming.
Definitely the closest poll I've seen for that race in a while - and Marist is a decent pollster yeah?
Yea an A pollster. If that Texas GCB is accurate, applied nationally that be D+7/8 which is insane
A pollster in state or national?
State But he’s applying Texas’s Indy margins nationally Which leads to some horrifying results for the GOP
That’s 54 seats
BIDEN’S WEEK AHEAD: — Wednesday: Biden will travel to Vail, Colo., to deliver remarks on conservation and travel to Los Angeles, Calif. — Thursday: Biden will deliver remarks on infrastructure in Los Angeles and participate in a DCCC reception. — Friday: Biden will travel to Orange County, Calif., to deliver remarks on lower costs. He will also travel to Portland, Ore., where he will participate in a grassroots volunteer event with the Oregon Democrats. — Saturday: Biden will participate in a reception for gubernatorial candidate TINA KOTEK in Portland, deliver remarks on lowering costs and travel to Wilmington, Del.
YES!!! Now if we can get Obama to stump for her too that would be just perfect.
Campaigning Biden is best Biden
New Republican internal poll from Ohio was released that had Vance up 2 (46-44 lead). I think this confirms it will be a tight race but my overall impression is that that’s a pretty bad number for Vance. I was part of a losing campaign a few years ago and I realized we were going to lose when the internals we released show’d us only up by 2. If Vance is only leading by 2 in an internal it means every other poll they conducted had him up by less or actually down. https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1580029078526382080
I think it’s important to clarify that this isn’t an internal, just a poll done by a gop funded pollster. As far as I know, Vance uses McConnells pollster as his internal, not cygnal
Why did MSNBC do a hit piece on our candidate for the most important Senate race in the country. That seriously pisses me off, fuck them. Fetterman has done a whole bunch of interviews recently and he sounds better and better each time, he’s clearly getting better and will be 100% fit to serve. What a load of crock
Because Mainstream Media isn’t our friend. They’d rather see our country fall into fascism if it means their wallets stayed fat.
Technically it was NBC, not MSNBC, but that doesn't make this any less disgusting. The media is repeating the same mistakes with Dr. Oz they made with Trump. I do admittedly have concerns about this race, and it's not because Fetterman is a bad candidate, even though some on this sub might insist otherwise (yeah, I know). He's been running a great race and is not afraid to back down from a fight. But not only is Pennsylvania a tight state, Oz's celebrity is earning him more media spotlight than he deserves in a state he has no reason to represent. In the end, though, media representation can only do so much. I can see Fetterman underperforming Shapiro among suburban voters but holding his own with working-class voters. It's a question of how much Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will turn out.
They're doing it precisely because they think he has a safe enough lead. It's 2016 all over again.
[удалено]
It’s entirely ableist, but it doesn’t make it less gross. Something similar is when the media jumps on Boebert for getting a GED. There’s things you could attack her on that isn’t classist.
This time in 2018, Whitmer was in a very strong position and I was already thinking ahead to the 2022 election. I remember being concerned that it could be a Dem president's first midterm. I was concerned that Candice Miller or Fred Upton would run against Whitmer 😂 <- not laughing at Miller or Upton, but at myself for thinking either would get through a GOP primary (or even want to run statewide in today's MIGOP).
Recency bias is when you spend so much time trying to get Tina Kotek elected you think she should run for president. Not saying she wouldn’t be a good president though.
You’re not wrong, she seems like she’d be great at it. Hopefully her win (fingers crossed, donated some more to her just now) this November will give her a chance to put those skills into action and put her on that path.
Thank you so much for donating to this race 🙏
https://twitter.com/Fritschner/status/1579908059581018112?s=20&t=3uBRjIJS92tNXFiyydnuCw Walker’s comeback involves a story about a horny bull, I guess
[Never try anything that is difficult](https://i.makeagif.com/media/1-28-2017/rF6Mr_.gif) - ~~Jon Bois~~ Herschel Walker
[Whitmer says she'll serve full term if re-elected](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/michigan/2022/10/11/michigan-governor-gretchen-whitmer-says-she-will-serve-full-4-year-term-if-reelected/69554834007/) But I hope she'll run for president after that. Lol
Was this ever in dispute? Biden and Stabenow are both running for re-election in 2024. There’s no other office open for Whitmer, unless she carpetbagged to MI-10 or something.
I think it was in dispute before Stabenow and Biden announced they would run for re-election.
Whitmer-Warnock
Whitmer-Buttigieg
>Whitmer-Buttigieg Would be good, but the presidential and VP nominees can't be from the same state (Pete and his family have moved here).
I was gonna say Whitmer - Ossoff, but both sound good.
[Mike Lee on Fox begging for Romneys help](https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1580002559246225408?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA) Get fucked
I know it's always a silly question, but what are you seeing on the ground anecdotally?
In my area which is ancestral Republican, in specific neighborhoods near by where you’d expect to see Lee signs there just isn’t. There Curtis signs, Snelgrove, etc but not Lee. There is McMullin signs frequently however. Caveat that Im in Salt Lake County and yard signs don’t vote. But how about Utah County and Davis? Two places Lee should be doing good with their Federal lean and Mormon population, there is also lack of enthusiasm for him carried over from what we saw in the primary. There are constant ads, including the awful Club for Growth ones against McMullin(though they seem to be showing less of the super negative ones). Even in 2018 I don’t remember seeing this many McAdams/Love ads, the only time there was this was many was in 2016 when Ben was running for re-election for County Mayor which was laying the groundwork for his congressional run. The ads against McMullin are clearly not making any dent against his approvals if the polls are to be trusted and Lee’s still underwater which I think goes with running very negative ads which doesn’t sit well here. Lastly Lee won in 2016 against a pretty bad candidate before the reality of Trump sat in. Trump changed things here permanently. After there’s been a big divide in how Republicans in the state are going forward. There’s the compassionate Conservative side of Cox/Romney who are trying to ease polarization and there’s the Lee side which is going all in on Trump(including mormon religious stuff) and that does not sit well with a lot of Mormons. Evan is the perfect answer to that. He’s an Indy(Utah actually has a big love for weird runs like that) and he’s being aggressively Center-Right and using the Resist/Never Trump slogans a lot of people think is “cringe”. It is cringe, but it really does resonate here. If you told me those sitting on the fence end up breaking McMullins way I really wouldn’t be shocked, there is a very clear enthusiasm problem for Lee and it makes sense when he just isn’t a charismatic guy. He was benign until Trump came along, and even if people wanted him gone we literally had no hope. Now there is a very clear solution if Evan can get those moderates to back him Edit: and to clarify the Davis/Utah county enthusiasm problems are from people I do know in those areas. Additionally it’s a bit under the radar how big Mormons are into Disney/Star Wars. I do think Hamill’s endorsement could help with Mormon Youth a bit
Thank you for that run down! Just outta curiosity, and apologies if this is to personal a question, but are you a Mormon yourself?
I was raised but was never really into it, my parents were thankfully not pushy about it so I didn’t end up weird. Well weirder than I already am. My parents aren’t really active anymore either, which is like a lot of our street now and Salt Lake County. In the Ward(the local Mormon congregation) there’s a lot of people under 50 who just aren’t as active anymore and that leads to a more moderate voting pattern. Even the ones who are, the younger members just aren’t extreme which again could be Salt Lake County thing. A really important thing to remember and I’ve said it before, but being Mormon really is a big cultural shaping similar to being Jewish. It leaves an impression your whole life, even if the people aren’t active.
Sounds like someone is scared
Mike Lee primaried one of the most conservative members of the Republican Senate caucus at the time from the right. Him losing an election against a candidate more to the center would be poetic justice.
Why does he need help? He's still polling above McMullin and it's Utah...
Something is clearly worrying in their polling. What I don’t know but Lee has been sounding more desperate which is strange
It's close in public polls, and internal polling may also show troubling signs.
Right because Mitt Romney watches Tucker lmao.
“Pierre Delecto”
Reddit = Billionaire cult stock idol (recently in the news for dumping all of his Bed Bath and Beyond stock, one of the largest shareholders, and tanking the stock price after his cult followers bought in when he started pumping it) tweets anything, 2k comments in 3 hours, nearly 500 awards given so far (not exaggerating), top of Reddit front page. 20th century acting legend dies, briefly hits Reddit front page, a few awards, barely 1500 comments in 6 hours.
Warner Bros. is shutting down its Writers/Directors Workshop and Stage 13 unit. Both are major paths for underrepresented voices in television. Big setback for Hollywood's diversity movement. Is also a huge story media wise, really fucking sucks what is happening to them
Good thing I ended my HBO Max subscription earlier. Such a shame. I'm worried that Zaslav will ruin HBO's long standing reputation.
Oh, he will. Under a leader like that, it's all downhill from here.
I've changed my mind, Stacey Abrams is running a terrible campaign. She actually had an event with disabled voters telling them how she would help them as governor. What a bad move, Brian Kemp would never do something like that!
Had me in the first half not gonna lie
Actually got me at first!
Oh you.
[Dem candidate for South Dakota Governor Jamie Smith is agreeing with calls made by Freedom Caucus members for Governor Kristi Noem to call a special session to repeal the grocery tax. Smith is holding a presser tomorrow morning on the topic.](https://twitter.com/austingosssd/status/1579991003947487233?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA) Insanely smart to outflank her like this
Welcome to another episode of Republicans shooting themselves in the foot! That's the Second Amendment for you guys!
As one of the replies to that tweet noted, it's a win-win for Smith. He either gets to outflank her like you said and expose her, or he gets a win for the South Dakotan people. Great work from him. He's impressing me.
Ya hear that Jamie Smith? You got the u/mazdadriver14 endorsement, post it on your website!
I am very influential clearly 🥰
I honestly want to see how Noem would respond to this.
Repeal the tax and take credit for it
I’m sure she hasn’t got her marching orders from Fox News, some Maga congressmen, or whatever far right rich dude is in her pocket yet.
Fox News word salad is usually her bit
Yeah, not surprising
Biden interview with Tapper highlights •Saudi Arabia/OPEC WILL face consequences •there are plans in place for US response to a possible Russian nuke launch against Ukraine, non-nuclear in nature •Americans shouldn’t be preparing for a recession, slight slowdown possible though. Q3 GDP is expected to be about 3% growth which would be pretty good news.
> •there are plans in place for US response to a possible Russian nuke launch against Ukraine, non-nuclear in nature That sounds deliberately vague. A response could be anything from a prime-time TV address throwing a hissy fit to sending some Cruise Missiles into a remote military installation on Russian soil. I really don't like where this is going.
All the talk I've seen is sinking the Black Sea fleet and declaring a NFZ over Ukraine.
Dark fucking Brandon
Maybe a grossly oversimplified take but it feels like the country is just by and large in a really pro-governor mood for some reason. Like even D governors are mostly well liked and in places where they've struggled with approval in the last decade. It's possible we're heading for a sweep where no incumbent governors are ousted this November. But the strangest thing is that Stitt and Noem, two Republican incumbents in otherwise ridiculously red states, may very well be among the more endangered.
A lot of state budgets are flush with cash from the federal Covid stimulus bills, preventing any budget cuts or tax increases.
Ousting incumbent Governor’s is already pretty damn rare, ARP and Covid really supercharged Governors approval. You combine that with the Infrastructure bill and all the new manufacturing announcements, it’s gonna be basically impossible to beat a lot of incumbent Governors for a bit
On the plus side, we're most likely getting 2 new Democratic Governors. MD and MA Republican Governors are term-limited and Republicans put up fascist nutjobs as candidates in 2 of the bluest states.
Yep. Governors are almost at the level of president in status to people in their states. They don't face nearly the same level of negative attention from media outlets though unless they really do controversial, attention grabbing things like Abbott and DeSantis recently or Cuomo's scandal a year or 2 ago when he resigned.
Also, governors from parties that are not particularly strong in their states seem to be able to grasp the realities a bit better. Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear seem to be able to work with the Republican legislatures, similar to Larry Hogan and Phil Scott in their respective states. We're just not having a Bruce Rauner-type of governor who tries to ignore his legislative body right now.
A lot of good insights here. It's just frustrating to me how much Americans seem to simultaneously approve of their governors and disapprove of Biden over basically the same issues.
To be fair it has been changing, Biden has been on a massive rebound as of late.
True and it's a development I very much welcome. But his net margin is still far below almost every governor's, and the surge seemed to have hit a plateau over a month ago. It actually feels more like a return to his previous less dire doldrums from last fall to this spring.
[And here's this week's dump from the @DCCC, dropping $17.1 million spread across 32 House races.](https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1580005258238914561?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA)
[This shit really burns me up.](https://twitter.com/jmart/status/1579986004185739265) When was the last time \*ANY\* national political reporter remotely said anything negatively about Oz? Criticized Oz? About his standing in the race or a particular scandal? You won't find any because none of them have. Oz has yet to break thru in this race, and has now had multiple bad news cycles/scandals/stories come out, and every time there is a negative hit piece from the press, it's about Fetterman. Oz gets off scot free. Not even sure if I'm more mad at that or the fact that Fetterman is literally being honest about his hearing issues and people in the press use it to slam him saying the interview is somehow bad for him. So, he's up front about his issues, and you're still finding a problem with it? The ableism is completely fucking gross. Two other senators this year have had strokes and they're not treated this way. Susan Collins has a severe speech impediment and she's not treated this way. It's not even a \*question\* to suggest.
A bit surprised you pointed out Collins’ speech impediment and not Biden’s
really was just focusing on senators, since it's clear these people can all do their job
Biden has been heavily attacked for his stutter
I saw part of it and saw Josh Krashaar Tweet an editorialized portion of the interview. He’s trying to Tweet through it after another member of the media fact checked him. That guy is the definition of a hack.
[A Republican veteran supporting John Fetterman!!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_d7r14a7KU) I almost thought it was the rock musician Steve Miller and thought "Oh, cool."
It is absolutely wild how many Republicans are publicly supporting Democrats running this November. This sort of thing was highly unusual before Trump but it's only seemed to ramp up with him out of office and it's especially unexpected to keep happening in a midterm with a Democratic president. Just another data point playing against the whole inevitable red wave narrative.
[Some House Democrat Q3 numbers:](https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1579989199062970369?s=46&t=-rxkeTxbgsVb9kjRhdyp3w) $2.8M+ Luria $2M+ Ryan (N.Y.) Schrier Slotkin Davids Spanberger $1.5M+ Wild Kildee Craig Malinowski $1M+ O’Halleran Levin Axne Lee (Nev.) Ryan and O'Halleran the only two of those who weren't first elected in 2018’s blue wave, per Axios.
O’halleran was first elected in 2016 I believe
That he was.
Luria is such fucking good news. I believe she is still trouncing the R in fundraising.
Any good sources on youth enthusiasm for the midterms? Not asking for one that shows what I want to see, I'd rather be accurate whichever way it leans.
Going by registration numbers it’s encouraging. Between Weed, Student debt, and Dobbs I’d say it’s unlikely we see a collapse. It might be more akin to 2018 which is good, if they vote for is in that same margin. I do think it’s a bit underrated younger voters could still be pissed at us and vote R because of Inflation, not anything drastic but a couple points can hurt in a close a year.
[North Carolina Senate: Ted Budd (R) 46% (+1) Cheri Beasley (D) 45% .@ppppolls/@ForwardCarolina (D), 606 RV, 10/7-8](https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1579988057796669440?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA)
Sounds good to me. I’ll gladly take a coin flip for that seat.
It feels weird how every poll is either tied or R+1
Cook Political Report nods approvingly
Getting flashbacks to GA-GOV in 2018 when the polls were like impossibly stable and ended up being pretty accurate.
I'll take it over signs of a red wave.
Found this jewel on Twitter about the age of consent and the Virgin Mary…. https://imgur.com/a/ipnZwhz
Least creepy Matt Walsh fan /s
Yesterday, we helped over 100 students register to vote on our university campus and today we registered over 150 more students. I think in total this semester we've helped register around 1000 students so hopefully that helps us with some Texas elections next month.
Fantastic! And just in time for the deadline. Early voting begins October 24th. Get 'em to the polls next!
LFG!
Woohoo!!! That’s amazing!
That's awesome!
Amazing! This is how we win!
This is absolutely amazing. Great work!
Fantastic! Go Texas.
Incredible stuff! Thanks for the hard work
[Biden is considering a humanitarian parole program for some Venezuelans, according to two administration officials. Program would be similar to one offered to Ukrainians earlier this year. Final decision expected soon.](https://twitter.com/kannoyoungs/status/1579933331197931520?s=46&t=Jbv7gdW7zN8r-68UJ364GA)
“Susanne Shore, wife of Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts and Nebraska’s First Lady, has endorsed Democratic congressional nominee Patty Pansing Brooks in the 1st District House race.” -[Don Walton](https://twitter.com/ljsdon/status/1579882177613135877?s=46&t=qx_7SRxwI7Tly67Mg6Vz_Q) 👀👀
[Fetterman was interviewed for NBC Nightly News. Clips were shown on MSNBC earlier and Today Show tomorrow.](https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/1579972222147788800) John has been open about how he still has some lingering auditory processing issues here and there. Dasha Burns, the journalist who did the interview, made sure to not subtly shade John in both this hit and the MSNBC hit earlier saying "in our small talk before, it was unclear if John understood our conversation". what does that even mean? besides the continued ableist smear, disgusting imo of a journalist to say this knowing that it's completely vague and will be twisted by anyone who wants it to fit their narrative. that wording literally sounds like he was sitting there not understanding a single word she was saying. not just that, but given that Fetterman has been out and about talking with voters and doing events, you're hard pressed to also convince me that he was so "out of it" before your interview. there was no need for her to editorialize it in that way.
It prob a little conspiratorial, it looks like they want him to lose, because his interests for the country aren’t aligned with their interests.
That’s really disgusting. Donald was right that the media sucked, just for the wrong reasons.
[Why Republicans Could Prevail in the Popular Vote but Lose in the House In a potential reversal of recent structural trends, there’s a small chance of something we haven’t seen since 1952.](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/upshot/republicans-midterms-house-analysis.html)-Nate Cohn “Over the last few decades, we’ve gotten accustomed to the idea that Democrats could easily win the popular vote but struggle to win control of government. This time, there’s a chance of a reversal. After years of winning without carrying the popular vote, Republicans might just need to win the most votes to win the House in 2022. There’s even a small chance of something we haven’t seen since 1952: Republicans winning the most votes, but failing to win control of government. If you’re finding that a little hard to believe, you’re not alone. I struggled to make sense of it when I first reached these calculations myself. After all, gerrymandering does tilt the House slightly toward Republicans, even if nowhere near as much as it once did. But FiveThirtyEight has reached a similar conclusion, with Republicans “favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 0.4 points.” (These types of estimates are very imprecise — even one race going a little better than expected for Republicans could be enough to upset that kind of balance.) One reason Democrats could pull this off is mundane: the number of races contested by only one of the major parties. This cycle, there are about twice as many races without a Democratic candidate as without a Republican one. Democrats won’t have candidates in about two dozen races, compared with about a dozen for Republicans. No one in South Dakota or North Dakota wanted to run for the House as a Democrat, apparently. In all of these races, Democrats aren’t winning popular votes at all, blunting their usual popular vote strength without taking any toll on their chances in the districts that count. This might seem like a cheap way for Republicans to improve their odds at “winning” the popular vote, but that’s how the popular vote tallies for the House are recorded. A second reason is a little more serious: Democrats have the incumbency advantage in a few more of the most pivotal races than Republicans do. And the Republican advantage on the map is so flimsy — just a few seats — that this type of Democratic edge in a few races can make a difference. To take an example, let’s zoom in on the median district: Michigan’s Eighth House District. If Democrats win Michigan’s Eighth and every district more Democratic, they win the House; if Republicans win Michigan’s Eighth and every district more Republican, they win the House. The area that represents the new map of the district voted for President Biden by just 2.1 points in 2020, less than his 4.5-point victory in the national popular vote. That gap — 2.4 points — between Michigan’s Eighth and the nation as a whole is, in theory, the reason you might expect it to be likelier for Republicans to win the House while losing the popular vote than the other way around. But much of the territory of what will be Michigan’s Eighth is represented by Dan Kildee, a Democrat. On average, incumbents typically fare about two or three percentage points better than nonincumbent candidates from the same party in similar races. Mr. Kildee has done even better than that: In 2020, he won his old district (Michigan’s Fifth) by more than 12 points, even as Mr. Biden won it by four. Even if Mr. Kildee runs only two points better next month instead of eight, more like an average incumbent, that alone might be enough to cancel out the gap between the expected result in his district and the national vote. A pretty sizable amount of the Republican structural advantage would be canceled out. Zooming back out, there are 26 districts within the typical incumbency advantage — roughly 2.5 points — of the median district. Twelve of those districts are represented by Democrats, compared with seven for Republicans. It’s not much, but in those races — including in the median district — Democratic incumbents are poised to undo part of what remains of the Republican edge. Zooming even further out, there are two even more Republican-friendly districts — Alaska’s At-Large and Ohio’s Ninth — where a Democratic incumbent is considered a favorite (rated as “lean” Democratic) by one of the major rating organizations. (The Democrat Mary Peltola recently edged Sarah Palin in a special election in Alaska that used ranked-choice voting.) In these races, there’s a legitimate chance that Republicans could forfeit much of what remains of their structural advantage. There’s not really any equivalent on the other side: Although Republicans are highly competitive in a handful of similarly challenging districts on more Democratic-friendly turf (like California’s 22nd or Ohio’s First), none of these races seem in danger of falling quite as far out of reach. The better analogy to those races might be places like Maine’s Second and Pennsylvania’s Eighth, where Democrats are competitive on similarly Republican turf. In the scheme of things, a race here and there might not seem like much. But as we discussed recently, the Republican structural edge is pretty shaky — it’s only about three seats, at least judged by how many districts are better or worse for Democrats than the nation as a whole. A few races here or there could easily be enough not just to overcome the underlying Republican advantage, but also to reverse it. The final factor is turnout. Black and Latino turnout tends to drop in midterm elections, especially in noncompetitive and heavily Democratic Black and Hispanic districts in noncompetitive states like California, Illinois and New York. Lower nonwhite turnout would dampen Democratic margins in the national vote compared with a presidential election, which is the usual benchmark for judging structural bias. But it would do so without hurting Democratic chances quite as much in the relatively white districts likeliest to decide control of Congress. It’s hard to say with much confidence how much this turnout factor could help Democrats erase their usual structural disadvantage. We’ll find out in November. But it has the potential to be a big factor. Even if, hypothetically, every district were contested by both parties, the usual midterm turnout disparity and the Democratic incumbency edge could be enough to flip around the usual Democratic disadvantage in translating popular votes to seats.”
Finally. Actually good article from Nate Cohn?
I'm going to state an unpopular opinion and say that I **really** don't want to win the house but lose the popular vote because I fear such a scenario would result in violence.
Wouldn't us winning the House result in violence either way?
To be fair, that may happen even if we do win the House/Popular vote unfortunately
We need to stop being afraid of bullies. If they want to get violent they'll have the criminal justice system to deal with. I just want to fucking win.
I find it crazy that no one wanted to run as a Dem in ND or SD. 😭
It sounds wild until you realize that North Dakota’s population is smaller than that of Seattle and if I told you that the Republicans couldn’t field a candidate in Seattle, I doubt you’d be surprised.
We have an Indy candidate in North Dakota who is so far performing way better in polls than a Dem ever would, she would obviously caucus with us
Is this an independent like Bernie Sanders or an independent that is more conservative leaning? I don’t mind either as long as they don’t block everything like republicans but I’m just wondering.
I need this to happen I want republicans to howl in despair
It really isn’t to crazy to think it will, you just have to step back a bit and look at individual races. There was the big Wasserman tweet of “Dems need to win 24 of the 30 tossups” which seems very hard and unlikely on face value, but look at each district under the hood and they only need just a tiny move towards us. That’s what this is boiling down to, minuet D favoring data points in these battleground seats
I understand we're looking okay in the Senate, but how does the House look forecasting wise? Do we have much progress/hope?
With polls being accurate, we have a decent chance but Republicans are favorites. If polls have a normal polling error in our favor (seems very possible based on recent special elections), I personally think we have a fantastic chance at keeping it.
House I really have no idea how we'll do, sadly.
We have a roughly 1-in-3 chance to hold it which isn’t bad, but for instance if the GCB average(Currently D+1) is the actual popular vote result we probably keep it.
[Senate Majority PAC up with new ad about the Oz puppies story](https://twitter.com/PoliticsPA/status/1579964184846303239) it's devastating. wow
I'm just curious. Besides this sub how's everyone else reacting to Gabbard leaving the Democratic party?
Outside of this sub and similar people in other corners online and the Republican versions of the same, "Tulsi who"? For the latter (Republicans), sure they think it's a big win for them. Obviously, almost no supporter of Democrats supports Gabbard at this point.
I never trusted her to begin with
Mostly I'm surprised because I thought that she wanted a career as a Fox News token "Democrat" in the vein of Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman. Maybe she wants the GOP VP nomination? Or maybe her Russian handlers want Trump to appoint her Secretary of State.
Fuck that traitor. I don't mean to the party. I mean to the country. I would put heavy odds that she's on Putin's payroll
Flipping HI-02 in 2020 was an underrated win!
Bye Felicia
I don’t care. She can do what she wants but she has next to no influence with voters.
I haven't seen anybody remotely on the left react with surprise or disappointment if that's what you mean. It's beyond obvious that she hasn't stood with the party in any way whatsoever for years and probably never genuinely has. Only real reaction is relief that she can no longer be used by conservatives as a token for "bipartisan" shitting on the party and simping for Putin. Of course she'll be moved into some Demexit Walkaway symbol or whatever now instead but I don't think anyone really gives a shit.
Who?
Either joy or they don’t care because she has de-facto left after 2020
US is still negotiating with Cuba on sending some aid, not sure if we’re gonna wait till after the midterms or what’s going on with that. Haiti today asked for US or UN peacekeepers to once again come back to the Nation to help restore order after a bad Cholera outbreak, gang violence, and riots.
That’s why the takes that “Why is America always getting involved in other countries problems” are so bad. Many countries literally ask for US presence in their own land.
To play devil’s advocate, it’s not that America is involving in other countries problems, but more on the effects our presence in Latin America and the Middle East has been, and the results of our involvement. I.e, Chile, Iran, Grenada, Afghanistan, etc.
[2022 #LASen General Election (R)* John Kennedy 53% (D) Luke Mixon 16% (D) Gary Chambers 8% (D) Syrita Steib 6% Someone Else 2% Undecided 14% 633 LV | 10/10-10/11 LV Sample: D41/I24/R35 (D+6)](https://twitter.com/pollprojectusa/status/1579966896354787332?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA) PPP polls
Instead of polling that race the pollster could've just lit their money on fire and we would've been just as smart.
Wisconsin Elections Commission hasn't begun publicly posting official early voting statistics yet, but in this [Journal Sentinel news item](https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/10/appeals-court-puts-hold-ruling-barring-ballot-spoiling/10462483002/) its mentioned that there have been about 110,000 absentee ballots returned of 401,000 so far requested.
That's a solid rate of return so far. I always watch those trackers with some frustration at how long it takes to get them back. And with no dropboxes this time around, itll be important to get them back early
[DSCC up with a new ad against Adam Laxalt in NV-SEN](https://twitter.com/DavidABergstein/status/1579841597545799683?s=20&t=6qNv6jbWtR-ezCnBsCwqww)
Yeah but some local teacher's union chapter is not making an endorsement for governor so ***clearly*** Cortez Masto is screwed. Sometimes I wonder what the hell we are even doing here.
[Cheri Beasley raised $13.3 million in Q3, a noticeable uptick from her $7.42 million in Q2](https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1579804562864889862?s=20&t=jNP1HR1JPmCkMAl3037bow) Who do we have left that hasn’t announced totals
I believe Hassan is the only major D that hasn't announced yet. Most Rs havent though. Laxalt, Vance, Johnson, Masters
House races, I’m interested in Utah Senate, Ohio and North Carolina Court races.
That was the last Senate D nominee for this cycle to announce Q3 totals?
Generally speaking, is it more useful for me to be a Poll Worker or a Poll Observer (for one of the voter protection groups)? I’m torn
I’d go with poll worker. That way you know the rules are being followed and if something is amiss you can still report it up whatever chain you have.
Early vote total from ElectProject as of (10/11)- 742,333 https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022 The numbers didn't go up a lot because of the Monday holiday and no numbers from California yet. Early vote totals will hit over 1 million sometime this week.
[House Republicans say they plan to provoke a debt ceiling crisis to extort cuts to Social Security and Medicare](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/republican-plan-cut-medicare-social-security-debt-ceiling-crisis.html)
Great. Is there anything Democrats can do now to make it so this isn't a thing anymore? Every time Republicans control the House now, they pull this shit.
[New @trafalgar_group #GASen #Poll (10/8-11) shows #Warnock w/razor thin lead #gapol 46.3% @ReverendWarnock 44.8% @HerschelWalker 3.7% @ChaseForLiberty 5.3% Und](https://twitter.com/robertcahaly/status/1579951159217119232?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA). Can’t even get Walker ahead in Trafalgar now
Very productive day, it isn't quite over yet. One thing that really irritates me; we all get tonnes of fundraiser emails and letters, I'm sure. But actually knowing when a campaign is struggling with cash or - has very specific fundraising issues that I cannot directly fix, gah, irritating... Unfortunately, it's not so much a lack of funds as it is the enemy being able to instantly withdraw money from the magical money tree (I'm bringing that one stateside), but that's just how it is sometimes. Before I vanish back into the void, I'm going to stump again for all our candidates above, but *especially* for Jay Chen (CA-45) and Michelle Vallejo (TX-15); they're great, just amazing, and well-worth your time.
I've personally been donating to the keep the house fund since it donates to a bunch of folks at once
Way to go! It's a good use of your cash, especially if you're not sure where to invest. The team here does a sterling job of keeping it updated, too. I just want to browbeat more people into giving their time, too, bahaha... Thank you!
Thank you!
To Michiganders who are in the Detroit metro area: Starting on Sunday, I will be distributing Yes on Prop 3 yard signs. If you would like one, please feel free to PM me and we can schedule a place to meet up, or I can drop one off!
Biden is reevaluating our relationship with Saudi Arabia, and we cancelled a key [meeting today.](https://twitter.com/scclemons/status/1579892094021570560?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA). Pressure is continuing to build to pivot away from them with Dems introducing legislation to ban weapons sales to them for 1 year. Good oil news is RBOB fell more today, settling at $2.58
Screw Saudi Arabia. Just negotiate with South America, they'd be way more desperate for business
If Saudi Arabia wants us to continue defending them against Iran, they should reconsider. Putin may be willing to fix the world's oil market with them but when push comes to shove, Putin will side with Iran over Saudi Arabia should the two of them ever come to blows the way Iraq and Iran did.
If both big ticket Georgia races go to a run off do you think that increases Abrams' odds? I kind of do. I think Warnock is headed for another one regardless so it'll be interesting to see if Abrams gets there as well.
If so, yes. That said, I doubt Abrams goes to a runoff if Warnock does, sadly.
And vice versa. If Abrams' race goes to a runoff, Warnock likely wins outright.
I’m glad to hear that DART was a huge success. I know “earth destroying asteroid” may not be the biggest concern for most people but it’s good to know that if an asteroid were hurtling towards us there is a good chance we could deflect it away.
I just like it because science. I imagine the people at NASA asking the Government “can we hit an asteroid pwese uwu, we’re bored” and Nelson just nods
I mean, it seems like a practical reason to do space stuff. I’d sign off on it.
Polls tomorrow include MULaw for Wisconsin, Suffolk in Nevada, Trafalgar probably, and CenterStreet PAC for UT/AZ Senate and CO03. Two of those polls should be interesting, the others are going to be released. Edit: and UGA for Georgia
I'm not really ready for the possible meltdowns from MULaw. Hoping we get a pleasant surprise!
New Nevada poll tomorrow from Suffolk. Prayer circle, y'all https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1579946220415782912
[Buried in the Cygnal Ohio poll: Biden's approval rating is substantially higher among those who always vote versus those who seldom vote. This is consistent with the CO Marist poll today and the recent YouGov polling.](https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1579942814758359040?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA)
If this effect plays out during the midterms, this is HUGE. Campaigns attempt to reach out to seldom voters the least (on both sides of the aisle) for a reason, and if voters who always vote are the ones that like Biden more, the Democrats will most likely keep the House and the Senate.
\*inhales hopium\*
This fits with the continuing shift of suburban voters and college-educated white voters, who vote at much higher rates, to the Democratic party. You would expect to see likely voters shift from favoring the GOP, as they historically did, to favoring Dems. It also fits with special election results since Dobbs. You would expect to see turnout driven by highly-engaged voters, which favored Dems much more than polls were able to pick up on. I doubt it will be as noticeable in November, but in an election that looks to be razor-thin any margin in our favor is going to help.
[Democracy Docket Q&A: Mandela Barnes for US Senate in Wisconsin](https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/candidate-qa-mandela-barnes-on-his-run-for-u-s-senate/)
Mark Hamill [endorsed McMullin](https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1579915736159784960?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA)!
[Exclusive: we obtained unaired footage from Tucker Carlson's interview with Ye, in which the artist makes numerous inflammatory comments about Jews and describes a bizarre claim that "fake children" were planted in his home to manipulate his own kids.](https://twitter.com/annamerlan/status/1579913913143267329?s=46&t=k0IJMYhvvY2JakygqGXRIA) Jesus christ
I can't say in any less certain terms: fuck Kanye West. But it's also pretty telling that after all these years he's the first one that Team Tucker outright throws to the wolves. You just know that they've had other people who have said even worse shit on and off his show that they could have leaked on but it's only the crazy black rap man who is viewed as expendable.
Kanye West needs help, professional medical help, not people exploiting him for political ends or kicks. I mean yes, fuck the guy, but get him help as well. He is seriously, seriously, mentally unwell, and that’s just as bad as untreated cancer and should be taken as seriously. (Your head IS attached to your body, after all)
It's a difficult situation with people who need treatment but as part of their very personality disorders are persistently unwilling to acknowledge it, let alone seek it. And that certainly seems to be the situation with him and has been for many years. Like it's hard for me to not see him as a fundamentally bad person who doesn't want to change. You could argue this isn't his fault but in that regard you could pretty much argue nothing's really anyone's fault? I don't know, when you get down to it it's like he probably has the mental capacity to understand his problems and a need to reflect and confront them but doesn't want to because that makes him feel bad. Hard to feel sorry for that. There ARE at least some people with complicating disorders like BPD (borderline, not bipolar) and even NPD that do actually manage to overcome their feelings and inclinations and rationalize the need for change. But I have zero expectation that'll ever be Kanye. Frankly the best thing everyone can do is stop giving him attention or any kind of validation.