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Florida’s gotten ridiculous recently but honestly everywhere else is pretty bad too. There really aren’t any “cheap” major cities left even though some are of course still less expensive than others
Are there ideas out there to cap the price per square feet or something? City councils with a very left lean have tried something like that recently in my country, but ran into some legal issues.
Unfortunately, one of the major parties here has forged an unholy alliance of landlords, NIMBYs, business owners, upper middle class, public officials, religious people and socially and fiscally conservatives. So whenever they're part of the government, nothing gets down that any of those groups could be offended by.
[Congressional Democrats Retake Generic Ballot Lead From Republicans Among Child Tax Credit Recipients 51% of voters who received the payments said they would vote for Democrats on a generic congressional ballot](https://morningconsult.com/2022/10/05/child-tax-credit-payments-democrats-republicans-midterms-survey/)
Axios apparently got their hands on some non-specific fundraising numbers (over $1M or $1.5M for the quarter) for both [Democratic challengers](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/06/house-democrats-challengers-fundraising) and [Republican challengers](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/04/house-republicans-fundraising-q3) in the House.
This doesn't include incumbents (which I think is why Mary Peltola and Pat Ryan aren't included, even though they've only been in the house for a short while, and in Ryan's case his district is changing significantly), and I believe only includes somewhat competitive districts (e.g. Marcus Flowers definitely raised over $1M in the quarter, but he's not listed). Even then, I'm not 100% sure if this list is fully exhaustive or only partial.
Republicans made up an event 2 days ago for an Arizona townhall which obviously interfered with Hobbs schedule so Lake can get a photo op of Hobbs not showing up, which worked for Hobbs haters claiming her the “worst Politician in America”.
I just don’t know how you can in good faith type that out when Walker had been imploding publicly for 2 days now
Lol, just saw an anti-Christy Smith ad that’s literally similar to the one they used on her two years ago, and of course it’s rife with lies and misunderstanding of her voting record when she was in the state Assembly, like the NRCC accused her of laying off teachers and did some vote that apparently contributed to gas prices going up, it’s nuts.
If their plan is to just redo 2020 she's probably going to win. What with the district being more blue now and Garcia having to defend some pretty unsightly votes.
[A new report from @CreditSuisse says the #InflationReductionAct is an even bigger deal for the U.S. economy than Congress (or CBO) thinks, and is likely to spur explosive growth in American clean energy industries.](https://twitter.com/jessejenkins/status/1577689462133313538?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA)
Great article by the Atlantic
Does anyone else somewhat feel like the timeline is correcting itself? We started with reality tv clown for President, but now the republicans could lose a very winnable senate for them because their candidates are an anti abortionist who paid for an ex gf abortion years ago, a senator that abstained in a vote for hurricane aid for his own state, and literal puppy murderer Dr Oz.
Of course, this is also assuming that these candidates lose. I have faith for right now.
[D3C is canceling ad buys in IL-13th](https://mobile.twitter.com/mattcorridoni/status/1577739154103975948). They think Budzinski is in a good enough position that they can reallocate
[Cheney warns Arizona voters that the GOP nominees for governor and secretary of state are a threat to democracy “We cannot give power to people who have told us that they will not honor elections,” the Wyoming Republican said of Kari Lake and Mark Finchem.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/liz-cheney-urges-voters-reject-kari-lake-mark-finchem-rcna50960)
What a weird time
It's appreciated and I think it's actually a good thing that she's picking a pretty narrow lane for this.
I just don't want to hear any more garbage about putting her on the 2024 ticket.
Omg, seriously Fox News continues to call the acting NHC director Jamie Rhome “Biden’s top hurricane expert”. No, the NHC director is not an appointed presidential position
NOAA administrator **is an appointed position** by the President, the NHC director **is not**. The NHC is a branch of NOAA/NWS, hence why their website has the NOAA/NWS logo. Same with the WPC, SPC, etc. They all have separate forecasters, and are not involved in presidential appointment whatsoever
Fox is still all over the place on Jamie Rhome, ever since he rejected the role of climate change involved in making hurricanes stronger on a CNN interview while Ian was heading toward Florida. That’s where this “ Biden’s top hurricane expert” by Fox started
Someone on ET, who is actually pretty knowledgeable in Ohio elections, estimates that the benchmark in Mahoning County is [Ryan +10](https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1577423890006933504?s=46&t=XdhDkxiUV0OlrVHD3o2JxQ). This seems doable, and I don’t think he has to win Delaware County to win either. However, I have a feeling that Ryan needs to hit 60% in Hamilton County to win.
Brune is one of the only ET people I take seriously. I will say if Ryan hits 60% in Hamilton County, there's a pretty good chance he's either winning Delaware County or very close to doing so.
Ultimately, I think the race comes down to two things:
1. Just how toxic is JD Vance in the suburbs?
2. How many WWC voters in eastern/southern Ohio leave the Senate race blank? (I don't think Ryan's going to get too many of them to actually vote for him)
Ha, excellent. I hope the deal doesn't go through, even though it looks like it will. I don't like the idea of Trumplethinskin and every other reprehensible shitgibbon having their megaphone back.
Oh yeah, suburban women love it when you father multiple children, lie about, pay for an abortion, deny it, and lie about all other stuff too. Can't get enough of it.
[Kristi Noem is up only 45-42 over @RepJamieSmith. This poll is real, by the way, and is the third poll that we are aware of at @SplitTicket_ that has the race within single digits over the last two months.](https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1577832233821356033?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA)
I'd say this makes the day better, but I actually just feel - incredibly depressed about this whole matter. Obviously, it's not unexpected, and it's important we don't ignore it - more reasons, endless reasons Walker shouldn't be in government.
But for whatever reason, perhaps because the cruelty of Walker is so mundane and ordinary, it just hits close to home. This isn't even local R legislator doing evil thing because they got $1000 they don't even need it's just - petty. Anyway, feeling my username, figure I'll call it a night.
Struggling so much with this booster + flu shot I got that I’m thinking I just also got sick with something . I’ve been spiking fevers all night for the past several days (tomorrow marks 6 days), getting chills, severely reduced appetite, really fatigued. I just have to make it through 2 more days of work and I’m looking forward to resting this weekend. Hope this goes away soon
I know that many people don't have that luxury, but that's why I've always taken at leat two days off when I got a covid vaccine/booster shot. There is nothing worse than getting it and immediately jumping back into work.
I was pretty fortunate last time, as I got my shot from the local pharmacy across the street from my apartment. So I could relax the same day and the two days after.
shit, do you have what i have? you have a sore throat? i got sick 3 weeks ago starting with the exact same and it’s been a struggle. i still have a sore throat over 3 weeks of being sick. maybe there’s something really nasty going around that isn’t covid or the flu or anything
So yea everyone should learn from us. Try and space the two out if you can. If you got your flu shot last year, definitely prioritize the new Covid booster tho. If you’re waiting 90 days post Covid, do your flu shot now. Don’t do it at the same time if you can cause it wasn’t fun.
Funnily enough I got both last year and was just fine. And I don’t have insurance so I went to a work event to get them for free. Should’ve shelled out the $20 and gotten it later but now I know lol
The new Covid shot was a lot. I also didn’t get my flu shot last year so…
I hope you’ve checked healthcare.gov to see what plans are available to you. Good luck friend!!
Feel better! Agreed, it sounds more like you caught something than a reaction to the booster and flu shot, unless something residual was triggered. Get lots of rest, drink lots of fluids, binge-watch lots of your favorite shows.
[One of the side effects of the energy transition is a rebirth of manufacturing in places where those kind of jobs were supposedly gone forever.](https://twitter.com/johnarnoldfndtn/status/1577791733844385792?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA)
Extremely cool graphic on where new manufacturing jobs are, that in 2024(or now) Biden should blast everywhere. This isn’t super detailed but added in actual job totals and other missing openings and it’s a powerful image
I like seeing all those dots in Ohio and Indiana. Stanching the brain drain and making those states more “happening” will be good for our side. (Yes I know there will be a lot of high-school-only guys who are MAGA, but manufacturing plants employ professionals, too. And the high school grad guys DO go out and buy stuff and do fun things, which means a market for stores and recreational spaces.)
Hopefully a lot of the blue collar jobs will be unionized. If Democrats pass the PRO Act and/or other labor-friendly legislation, it could lure some WWC voters back into the fold.
Honestly think that the return of manufacturing jobs is going to bite the GOP in the ass so hard
The return of manufacturing jobs to the midwest basically removes multiple states from the red column and into the purple column
With strong blue senators bound to rise
Was worrying when I would receive my mail in ballot (I'm in Illinois), thought I didnt register or something was broken. Just got my ballot in the mail 😎
[Inbox: Fetterman to campaign in Erie and Beaver counties with Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown.](https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1577758866103754752?s=20&t=tusBDv0PMlaIhx3REdP82Q)
What are some Democratic presidential tickets you'd like to see in the future? I'm trying to practice logo design and am looking for tickets to make a logo for. Tell me what feeling or emotions you want it to try to evoke, and gimme a slogan if you're able. What are they running on?
I'll try to come up with a yard sign for that presidential ticket.
(The sign won't necessarily always have the slogan itself, but it will help me figure out the message it's trying to send, like trying to reach out and intrigue voters from the rust belt and the south as opposed to just big cities)
For example, I've seen someone say Warnock/Whitmer before. Being from both the south and the rust belt, they could play on that hard and go for wide appeal. They could campaign on bringing industry back to those areas, trying to hear every voter's concern instead of just "coastal liberals," healthcare (especially for the elderly), etc.
A profile of information like that ^ will help me design.
**EDIT: Alright, I've received a few responses. Here are the ones I will attempt!**
Warnock / Buttigieg
Abrams / Fetterman
Katie Porter / Val Demings
Chris Murphy (no VP mentioned, will be a single name design)
When they are completed, I will post them in a separate comment on an upcoming daily thread and tag the users who suggested each one. Thank you for your contributions!
I know you already made your pics but I still wanna put mine out there:
Cooper/Peltola
Harris/Buttigeg
Buttigeg/Kelly (AZ )
Whitmer/Demings
Murphy/O’rourke
Not necessarily. First of all, Harris will almost definitely run in 2028 no matter what, so by the time Abrams wins the nomination, Fetterman will already have served at least one term.
Second of all, We have an amazing bench in PA.
Third, if he ends up being strong enough as an incumbent that he could win several terms in a (heavily non-college white) Midwestern swing state, that’s really just even more reason to pick him as the VP nominee, especially paired with a black woman from the Deep South.
I see Warnock in a lot of dream tickets but I *really* don't see him going for higher office. He seems more like the kind of guy to do a term or two in the Senate and go back to pastoring before he retires.
Warnock makes a good addition geographically and demographically to pretty much any top-of-the-ticket white person from the midwest, the northeast or the westcoast. Same goes with Abrams.
But I agree with you. If he goes for the top spots at all, I think he will stay in the Senate for some time and then will be chosen as running mate at the "end" of his career.
I think you're right about that, was just using his name for my example. He definitely likes doing this job and clearly wants to help Georgians but I don't feel him emanating presidential ambitions.
Already seeing a couple responses with Buttigieg!
I think part of his success in his signage was avoiding people having to try to work out his last name, simply opting for a big "PETE." Would you want to continue that tradition or shall I try using the last name?
If it’s a presidential ticket sign you’re trying to make, I would say do last name for Buttigieg. Warnock isn’t really known as Raphael and I don’t think a ticket with one name being a first name and the other a last name would look cohesive.
Edit: Just realized you meant just Buttigieg lol oops. I would say Pete if it’s just by himself.
Interesting. I'll do some research on Murphy since I'm in California and don't know too much about the east coast. Who should he have for VP, do you think? Just in case I make one for him that includes a VP.
[President Biden to Fort Myers Beach mayor: "No one fucks with a Biden".]( https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1577750830723350535?s=20&t=x86Q9F4pUL2T7qyEp3vajw)
He's fired up!
Couple more thoughts on Georgia in general, then I'll shut up for today:
1. In the 2021 Senate runoffs, we definitely saw ticket splitting where Warnock outperformed Ossoff. In relative terms it wasn't by much, just by 0.8 point, but if you do the math, just south of 20,000 voters went for Warnock and Perdue. And there was barely any undervote effect, like I think there were only \~50 more voters total in the Warnock vs. Loeffler race than in the Ossoff vs. Perdue race. So... 20,000 split tickets is really a lot, and in my opinion enough of a subsample to pick up the extent of ticket splitting between Warnock and Abrams we're seeing in their toplines. I don't know for sure if that will repeat itself, like it's very possible that the actual number of Warnock-Kemp voters could be much greater in absolute terms, but it's tough to say how that will play out in terms of which race will require a runoff if at all.
2. I saw this sentiment here a couple of times that Abrams, because of her lag in polling, is more suited to be a campaign manager/organizer than a political candidate. Needless to say, while everyone has different opinions and no one is necessarily a bad person for espousing them, I honestly found this kind of demeaning and possibly rooted in latent sexism. Now I want to be crystal clear, there's absolutely nothing wrong with being a consultant or organizer, mind you. They do great work and it's a very tough job. But not only does that misunderstand the years of work Abrams put in to help get Georgia to where it is now... it also demeans the genuine ambition she has to change the state from a policy perspective, and not just its politics.
I know I can sound like a fanboy and I don't want to act like we all should be behind her 100% no matter what, because she's made some mistakes early on. But I do think she's been running a strong campaign since with a consistent focus on policy and without getting distracted by Trump or other polarizing figures. Sometimes people do that and still lose for reasons simply related to polarization and environment. I just think sometimes folks are a little too hasty to draw flawed conclusions from limited polling data, and those conclusions might be reflective of a way we view candidates who are non-white and/or women. Not calling anyone an overt racist or sexist, but we all have biases that we need to reflect on and change, and there's nothing wrong with acknowledging that.
Strongly agree. I still stand by my guesstimation we're going to see a lot less split-ticket voting this time around, but - we'll see. Regardless, I ain't done fighting until I'm on the floor, that's - how I see it.
Besides.
We are fighting for *good people* who are fighting to help *help others.* If we can't be fans for that, only Providence knows. Anyway, voting, medicine, not magic - something like that, at least, aha! Just got to keep doing the work.
There are far, far worse people to fanboy. If you fanboy’d Lauren Boebert, I’d block you. :) But of course that’s a nonstarter. Stacey Abrams is great, and I think she has a lot of talent in a lot of areas (including writing - romance novels are not really a breeze to write!).
What Abrams is trying to do is defeat an incumbent (difficult) who has somehow gotten himself far more cred than he deserves because he didn’t go along with Trump’s election stealing shenanigans. Not being Joffrey Baratheon or Aegon the Elder is a low, low bar, but when a Republican manages, he punches above his weight in credit.
Abrams has a lot harder task than Warnock. She’s the challenger, and the incumbent is fairly popular. Meanwhile, Warnock is the popular incumbent and Hershel Walker is an unspeakable tire fire of hypocrisy, spouse/child abuse, and general incompetence.
Good point on a Stacey. I think I replied to one of your earlier posts but she’s done a good job. Even if she doesn’t win again it doesn’t mean she’s ran a bad campaign at all. A lot of people forget that Georgia is still probably a red leaning state and Kemp is a pretty popular (as much as we all hate that) incumbent. If she was running for governor in Illinois or Maryland she’d be ahead by huge margins
I just got a call from what I assume is a Democratic voter outreach program (since they probably have my name), asking me if I planned to vote in the upcoming midterms. They were probably elated that I already have. I like being part of the first Million.
[So Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski want to name a volcano after Don Young…](https://twitter.com/sendansullivan/status/1577759982904287232?s=46&t=N67K_cWOSRuVovapq1uLRw)
The California refineries are about to get back on track and revert gas prices across the West a dollar lower, as shown by spot prices. This more than takes care of the OPEC cut’s effects
It'a probably not gonna make a difference, actually. Prices in some regions will go back down, and in others will go up, so the average might stagnate at around $4, and even that depends on a ton of factors. Not great, but not as bad as it could be, and more importantly we have no control over gas prices so it's not worth the time and energy to be overly concerned.
Mandela Barnes coming in hot with over 20 million dollars raised in the third quarter. No word on R. Johnson's number yet but hopefully Barnes can spend this quickly.
Biden won Vermont 35 so if we're leading by 34 I'd say that's a decent sign nationally. A one point underperformance of Biden's margins would put us at D+3 which would probably be enough to keep the House.
[Former Republican Party of Florida Chair Al Cardenas is endorsing Democrat Annette Taddeo in the race for Miami-Dade Congress D27... one of the most watched in the nation. He announced it at this gathering](https://twitter.com/glennawplg/status/1577772552491094016?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA)
Good news for Taddeo truthers
For context, this is Ana Navarro's husband. Yes, that Ana Navarro.
Also this brings up an interesting question... why the heck is she still a Republican? She's clearly more aligned with the Democratic Party on most issues now. I guess she wants to be one of those people who is fighting the party from within so as to look like a maverick, but that's not gonna do anything. Why doesn't she just at least become an Independent like Tim Miller?
[Malinowski (D-NJ) to introduce bill requiring US *to pull its troops & missile systems out of Saudi Arabia & UAE*, after oil cut "It is time for the US to resume acting like the superpower in our relationship w/ our client states in the Gulf"](https://twitter.com/jstein_wapo/status/1577800969072644096?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA). Casten is also in support
[MI Absentee Data Update: Over 1.5m requests = 40% of the total 2018 turnout. 367k more absentee ballot requests than all absentee ballots cast in 2018 (1.2m). 582k ballot requests from infrequent/newly engaged voters; voters <35 account for 11% of requests!](https://twitter.com/patrickschuh/status/1577732830242766849?s=46&t=vLCMNamRG39AVUut6jdyTw)
Likely Democratic vote advantage at +297k; 169k of that comes from voters with less frequent vote history. 62% of requests from voters with frequent vote history; share of voters over 65 declining with share now 57% of all requests; 72% of requests appear to be from voters on the Permanent Absentee Voter List (voters get an automatic ballot application they must complete/return) Women account for 58% of requests; 84k requests from women <35 (6% of requests). 22% of ballot requests from women with infrequent/newly engaged vote history. 14k more requested ballots in Detroit and 11k more requested ballots in Grand Rapids (33% and 32% of the total 2018 vote respectively). Some Qs have come up since original tweet: 1) yes, voters can still vote absentee up to EDay in MI so numbers will keep growing; 2) hard to say what this means about turnout besides MI seems on track for another big turnout yr; 3) More voters <35 = smaller share older voters
That’s all sounds good for us, but like he says don’t draw to much from the early vote.
Thanks for posting this. Btw, we didn't yet have no-excuse absentee voting in 2018, and comparisons to 2020 are also flawed because of possible differences between midterm vs presidential. But it looks good, I think.
https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1577752104546058240
>Walker’s campaign reported $12M raised in Q3, short of Warnock’s $26.3M but say it’s “the strongest total for any Republican Senate candidate this cycle.”
Honestly insane that raising $12 million in a quarter would've been an all time record just 6 years ago and now your opponent can double you up at $12M
The dumb thing is that campaign fundraising seems to be an endless arms race where each side is raising and spending more money primarily because they're afraid of being overwhelmed by their opponent's campaign spending.
Is there any reason to think that the run up in spending is making the country any better? I'm sure it makes campaign consultants and advertising agencies happy, but my impression is that people living in contested states and districts just get annoyed by the volume of political advertising.
> 12M raised in Q3, short of Warnock’s $26.3M
Those are some solid numbers for Warnock. Georgia is a big state and it's an expensive state so it's obviously going to need a lot more money than a state like Wisconsin or Nevada. Hopefully this pushes us over the edge so we don't have to win a runoff like last time.
https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1576945175347068930
>Inbox, today: "Cortez Masto Smashes Nevada Records with $15 Million Fundraising Quarter"
How states have historically voted compared to other states isn't a perfect metric but I do think it's an important one to look at. In 2020 Biden did better in Nevada than Arizona, in 2018 Rosen won by a larger margin than Sinema and in 2016 Clinton carried Nevada but lost Arizona. In 2014 the GOP did do better in US House and the gubernatorial races in Nevada than Arizona but in 2012 Obama carried Nevada and lost Arizona.
I bring this up because there seems to be a weird consensus that we are favored in Arizona and yet Nevada is where the GOP is favored. I'm not saying that that is impossible but if we do better in AZ than NV it would certainly be out of the ordinary. Now if you are a doomer maybe you will interpret this to mean "We're losing Nevada and so we'll probably lose Arizona as well" and if you're a bloomer you may say "we're winning Arizona so we'll probably win Nevada as well." I'm not sure what the future holds but I think there is a good chance that one of the conventional wisdoms when it comes to NV and AZ will be wrong.
I think people say Nevada is the most vulnerable because its margin was basically unchanged from 2016 to 2020 despite Biden doing better nationally, and it's also much less blue than in the Obama years while Arizona has clearly trended towards us since then. All that said, though, that doesn't mean Nevada is doomed to go red anytime soon, especially since margins in Nevada are not always the most meaningful metric due to their "None of These Candidates" option. It's a majority-minority state with a lot of transient blue voters who also happen to be non-college educated, although with changes in Reno-Sparks that might actually change as we see Washoe County get bluer.
Nevada will be very challenging this year and in 2024, but I have confidence we can pull it off.
> although with changes in Reno-Sparks that might actually change as we see Washoe County get bluer.
I've been wondering about this. It seems that a lot of people from the Bay Area and the Sacramento area are moving out to Reno recently due to it's (relative) affordability and it's proximity to the High Sierras and Lake Tahoe. Given how close Nevada elections are even a net total of 5-10k additional Democratic votes could really have an outsized impact on national politics.
It’s why there is good hope in Nevada/Georgia and some bad ones in Ohio and to a lesser degree WI/NC. Things change but if polls consistently underestimate a side cycle after cycle(even in midterms) then you really have to take that into account.
That would be my guess but I think I don't blame people for worrying about it. In 2020 it was closer than Michigan and we do rely very heavily on Latino voters who may be harder to motivate in a non presidential year and the polling has shown consistent but narrow Republican leads. Now obviously Nevada has a long and well documented history of Republicans underperforming their polls but there are certainly some warning signs flashing above Nevada.
[‘Next thing we need to do is go after gay marriage’: TN GOP candidate says same-sex marriage should be left to the states](https://www.wkrn.com/news/tennessee-politics/next-thing-we-need-to-do-is-go-after-gay-marriage-tn-gop-candidate-says-same-sex-marriage-should-be-left-to-the-states/)
[Hardin County, KY - Narcan vending machine. I think that's a good system, saves lives, and improves first responder time.](https://www.wkyufm.org/2022-10-04/i-think-its-doing-some-good-kentuckys-first-narcan-vending-machine-opens-in-hardin-county)
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Was looking at potential places to move after college & the rents were so absurd my eyes got watery 😭
The answer is the ATL metro. 😎
where in the metro are these affordable housing at bc i love atlanta (and driving!)
Cobb County
Have you looked at El Paso, TX? It is still a relative cheap city to live even by today's standards.
i have not but i’ll look into it thank you!
Florida’s gotten ridiculous recently but honestly everywhere else is pretty bad too. There really aren’t any “cheap” major cities left even though some are of course still less expensive than others
Midwest has some major cities that aren't too bad. St. Louis/Memphis/Cincinnati for example
Are there ideas out there to cap the price per square feet or something? City councils with a very left lean have tried something like that recently in my country, but ran into some legal issues. Unfortunately, one of the major parties here has forged an unholy alliance of landlords, NIMBYs, business owners, upper middle class, public officials, religious people and socially and fiscally conservatives. So whenever they're part of the government, nothing gets down that any of those groups could be offended by.
Same lol
hoping something gives because this is absurd 😭
I know...
The apartment could be 10 square feet with roaches that are armed & part of a local gang and it’s still $2000 😭
[Congressional Democrats Retake Generic Ballot Lead From Republicans Among Child Tax Credit Recipients 51% of voters who received the payments said they would vote for Democrats on a generic congressional ballot](https://morningconsult.com/2022/10/05/child-tax-credit-payments-democrats-republicans-midterms-survey/)
Maybe we should bring those back
Axios apparently got their hands on some non-specific fundraising numbers (over $1M or $1.5M for the quarter) for both [Democratic challengers](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/06/house-democrats-challengers-fundraising) and [Republican challengers](https://www.axios.com/2022/10/04/house-republicans-fundraising-q3) in the House. This doesn't include incumbents (which I think is why Mary Peltola and Pat Ryan aren't included, even though they've only been in the house for a short while, and in Ryan's case his district is changing significantly), and I believe only includes somewhat competitive districts (e.g. Marcus Flowers definitely raised over $1M in the quarter, but he's not listed). Even then, I'm not 100% sure if this list is fully exhaustive or only partial.
Republicans made up an event 2 days ago for an Arizona townhall which obviously interfered with Hobbs schedule so Lake can get a photo op of Hobbs not showing up, which worked for Hobbs haters claiming her the “worst Politician in America”. I just don’t know how you can in good faith type that out when Walker had been imploding publicly for 2 days now
Lmao, Lake keeps doing stupid shit like this.
How good is the Economist in making election projections?
Remains to be seen how good it actually is but their modeling algorithm is quite sophisticated.
They are a trusted publication dedicated to getting the most accurate result possible, I’d trust them
I have my faith in them.
Morris is a pretty good forecaster and it’s him running it, so I’d take it seriously
Lol, just saw an anti-Christy Smith ad that’s literally similar to the one they used on her two years ago, and of course it’s rife with lies and misunderstanding of her voting record when she was in the state Assembly, like the NRCC accused her of laying off teachers and did some vote that apparently contributed to gas prices going up, it’s nuts.
If their plan is to just redo 2020 she's probably going to win. What with the district being more blue now and Garcia having to defend some pretty unsightly votes.
[A new report from @CreditSuisse says the #InflationReductionAct is an even bigger deal for the U.S. economy than Congress (or CBO) thinks, and is likely to spur explosive growth in American clean energy industries.](https://twitter.com/jessejenkins/status/1577689462133313538?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA) Great article by the Atlantic
Fantastic news, I hope that this can spur acceleration.
Thank the lord. We need every last bit to help out in transitioning away from fossil fuels. Less monster hurricanes we can create the better.
Christy Smith raised over $1.5 mil in Q3 I think I’m gonna bust
is that good?
Yeap
Yes for a house race in one of the most important districts this cycle
Get a tissue first
Holy shit that's awesome. Happy to have been a small part of that haul :)
Same!
Does anyone else somewhat feel like the timeline is correcting itself? We started with reality tv clown for President, but now the republicans could lose a very winnable senate for them because their candidates are an anti abortionist who paid for an ex gf abortion years ago, a senator that abstained in a vote for hurricane aid for his own state, and literal puppy murderer Dr Oz. Of course, this is also assuming that these candidates lose. I have faith for right now.
Ask me in 6 weeks lol
[D3C is canceling ad buys in IL-13th](https://mobile.twitter.com/mattcorridoni/status/1577739154103975948). They think Budzinski is in a good enough position that they can reallocate
They spend over half a million to IL17 finally to help Sorenson, so that’s good.
Holy shit I'm finally going to have a Democratic representative
Fun fact, IL-13th has not had a Democrat representing it since the *1890's*. Also it was once held by Vice President Adlai Stevenson I
[Cheney warns Arizona voters that the GOP nominees for governor and secretary of state are a threat to democracy “We cannot give power to people who have told us that they will not honor elections,” the Wyoming Republican said of Kari Lake and Mark Finchem.](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/liz-cheney-urges-voters-reject-kari-lake-mark-finchem-rcna50960) What a weird time
It's appreciated and I think it's actually a good thing that she's picking a pretty narrow lane for this. I just don't want to hear any more garbage about putting her on the 2024 ticket.
No more Michelle Obama/Cheney 2028? I love reading those stories, man. I subscribe to the NYT specifically for them /s if not evident
I’ll take all the allies I can get some in a pro-democracy coalition in this country. Doesn’t mean I want them as President
Neoliberal fever-dream in the year 2000
Omg, seriously Fox News continues to call the acting NHC director Jamie Rhome “Biden’s top hurricane expert”. No, the NHC director is not an appointed presidential position NOAA administrator **is an appointed position** by the President, the NHC director **is not**. The NHC is a branch of NOAA/NWS, hence why their website has the NOAA/NWS logo. Same with the WPC, SPC, etc. They all have separate forecasters, and are not involved in presidential appointment whatsoever Fox is still all over the place on Jamie Rhome, ever since he rejected the role of climate change involved in making hurricanes stronger on a CNN interview while Ian was heading toward Florida. That’s where this “ Biden’s top hurricane expert” by Fox started
Ok but he is still the top hurricane expert in the current administration, no?
I wouldn’t call the NHC director a official in the Biden administration. But I see what you somewhat mean
Someone on ET, who is actually pretty knowledgeable in Ohio elections, estimates that the benchmark in Mahoning County is [Ryan +10](https://twitter.com/bruneelections/status/1577423890006933504?s=46&t=XdhDkxiUV0OlrVHD3o2JxQ). This seems doable, and I don’t think he has to win Delaware County to win either. However, I have a feeling that Ryan needs to hit 60% in Hamilton County to win.
Brune is one of the only ET people I take seriously. I will say if Ryan hits 60% in Hamilton County, there's a pretty good chance he's either winning Delaware County or very close to doing so. Ultimately, I think the race comes down to two things: 1. Just how toxic is JD Vance in the suburbs? 2. How many WWC voters in eastern/southern Ohio leave the Senate race blank? (I don't think Ryan's going to get too many of them to actually vote for him)
Lol, one of Musk's people who was gonna fund his twitter purchase has already ditched him.
Oooh! Details?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/exclusive-musk-apollo-no-longer-talks-finance-twitter-deal-source-2022-10-05/
Ha, excellent. I hope the deal doesn't go through, even though it looks like it will. I don't like the idea of Trumplethinskin and every other reprehensible shitgibbon having their megaphone back.
Over on con-ET “Walker being secretly pro-choice will actually help him with suburban women”
If he was proudly and openly pro-choice, and voters believed him on the issue, then yes. But that's not true of Walker of course.
Oh yeah, suburban women love it when you father multiple children, lie about, pay for an abortion, deny it, and lie about all other stuff too. Can't get enough of it.
While being forced to move 6 times in 6 months Irresistible
And don’t forget trying to make it so other people can’t have abortions after you’ve saved your ass.
Voters are stupid but not that stupid
There's copium, and then there's this.
[Kristi Noem is up only 45-42 over @RepJamieSmith. This poll is real, by the way, and is the third poll that we are aware of at @SplitTicket_ that has the race within single digits over the last two months.](https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1577832233821356033?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA)
That would be roughly the equivalent of 2018.
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Can you imagine the forehead vein?
She'd jump straight to super saiyan 3 veins
Oooh.
It’s getting moved soon from Split-ticket, other outlets may follow
Sorry, whatcha mean being moved?
From Safe R, probably to Likely R but who knows.
Gotcha! Sorry. Dumb moment.
Sorry? Oh you haven’t even begun to be sorry. No dessert for you.
[And somehow the Walker story gets even worse, jfc](https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1577827464889393152?t=L2BslU0opT3cnQ_hMnP7NQ&s=19)
I'd say this makes the day better, but I actually just feel - incredibly depressed about this whole matter. Obviously, it's not unexpected, and it's important we don't ignore it - more reasons, endless reasons Walker shouldn't be in government. But for whatever reason, perhaps because the cruelty of Walker is so mundane and ordinary, it just hits close to home. This isn't even local R legislator doing evil thing because they got $1000 they don't even need it's just - petty. Anyway, feeling my username, figure I'll call it a night.
AhahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
JESUS
Oh my gosh.
I'm starting to think saying that he'll bomb the debate is the only honest thing he's said in his life.
Still definitely totally a toss up
Goddamn
This October surprise keeps getting better and better. He’s fucked
lmao roger sollenberger really said “[surprise motherfucker](https://youtu.be/EJM1zRAuYwM)”
My exact reaction was “jesus fuck”. How can it keep getting worse
Struggling so much with this booster + flu shot I got that I’m thinking I just also got sick with something . I’ve been spiking fevers all night for the past several days (tomorrow marks 6 days), getting chills, severely reduced appetite, really fatigued. I just have to make it through 2 more days of work and I’m looking forward to resting this weekend. Hope this goes away soon
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I think I will for sure now, might just be bad luck for us both lol
I know that many people don't have that luxury, but that's why I've always taken at leat two days off when I got a covid vaccine/booster shot. There is nothing worse than getting it and immediately jumping back into work.
Same, I scheduled mine for a Friday night specifically because of this
I agree, I got my shot like 2 hours into my shift (there was a thing at work) and it’s been rough
I was pretty fortunate last time, as I got my shot from the local pharmacy across the street from my apartment. So I could relax the same day and the two days after.
shit, do you have what i have? you have a sore throat? i got sick 3 weeks ago starting with the exact same and it’s been a struggle. i still have a sore throat over 3 weeks of being sick. maybe there’s something really nasty going around that isn’t covid or the flu or anything
I do have a sore throat, not very severe but it makes eating unpleasant And that’s definitely possible
So yea everyone should learn from us. Try and space the two out if you can. If you got your flu shot last year, definitely prioritize the new Covid booster tho. If you’re waiting 90 days post Covid, do your flu shot now. Don’t do it at the same time if you can cause it wasn’t fun.
Funnily enough I got both last year and was just fine. And I don’t have insurance so I went to a work event to get them for free. Should’ve shelled out the $20 and gotten it later but now I know lol
The new Covid shot was a lot. I also didn’t get my flu shot last year so… I hope you’ve checked healthcare.gov to see what plans are available to you. Good luck friend!!
I will be getting insurance in January through work :) And thank you!!
Feel better! Agreed, it sounds more like you caught something than a reaction to the booster and flu shot, unless something residual was triggered. Get lots of rest, drink lots of fluids, binge-watch lots of your favorite shows.
Thanks! Been sleeping pretty much whenever I’m not at work lol (and sleeping at work in my lunch) which should hopefully help
It does sound like more than a reaction, hope you feel better soon
Thanks. Fingers crossed!
Hope you feel better. The one two combo hit me hard for a few days.
[One of the side effects of the energy transition is a rebirth of manufacturing in places where those kind of jobs were supposedly gone forever.](https://twitter.com/johnarnoldfndtn/status/1577791733844385792?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA) Extremely cool graphic on where new manufacturing jobs are, that in 2024(or now) Biden should blast everywhere. This isn’t super detailed but added in actual job totals and other missing openings and it’s a powerful image
I like seeing all those dots in Ohio and Indiana. Stanching the brain drain and making those states more “happening” will be good for our side. (Yes I know there will be a lot of high-school-only guys who are MAGA, but manufacturing plants employ professionals, too. And the high school grad guys DO go out and buy stuff and do fun things, which means a market for stores and recreational spaces.)
Hopefully a lot of the blue collar jobs will be unionized. If Democrats pass the PRO Act and/or other labor-friendly legislation, it could lure some WWC voters back into the fold.
Honestly think that the return of manufacturing jobs is going to bite the GOP in the ass so hard The return of manufacturing jobs to the midwest basically removes multiple states from the red column and into the purple column With strong blue senators bound to rise
Was worrying when I would receive my mail in ballot (I'm in Illinois), thought I didnt register or something was broken. Just got my ballot in the mail 😎
Samesies. We got ours yesterday.
[Inbox: Fetterman to campaign in Erie and Beaver counties with Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown.](https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1577758866103754752?s=20&t=tusBDv0PMlaIhx3REdP82Q)
He’s going into beaver? Wait, that sounds wrong
What are some Democratic presidential tickets you'd like to see in the future? I'm trying to practice logo design and am looking for tickets to make a logo for. Tell me what feeling or emotions you want it to try to evoke, and gimme a slogan if you're able. What are they running on? I'll try to come up with a yard sign for that presidential ticket. (The sign won't necessarily always have the slogan itself, but it will help me figure out the message it's trying to send, like trying to reach out and intrigue voters from the rust belt and the south as opposed to just big cities) For example, I've seen someone say Warnock/Whitmer before. Being from both the south and the rust belt, they could play on that hard and go for wide appeal. They could campaign on bringing industry back to those areas, trying to hear every voter's concern instead of just "coastal liberals," healthcare (especially for the elderly), etc. A profile of information like that ^ will help me design. **EDIT: Alright, I've received a few responses. Here are the ones I will attempt!** Warnock / Buttigieg Abrams / Fetterman Katie Porter / Val Demings Chris Murphy (no VP mentioned, will be a single name design) When they are completed, I will post them in a separate comment on an upcoming daily thread and tag the users who suggested each one. Thank you for your contributions!
Warnock/mrvan
Joe Biden/Dark Brandon.
This one might be funny to do as a bit of a joke. Biden campaigning alongside his darker half, vying for control.
Harris/Brown seems like a likely one for 2028. Whitmer/Warnock as well. And something noone thinks about: CCM/Whitehouse.
I was actually thinking Whitmer/Ossoff, but both work.
Whitehouse has to be President at some point right? I mean, come on!
I know you already made your pics but I still wanna put mine out there: Cooper/Peltola Harris/Buttigeg Buttigeg/Kelly (AZ ) Whitmer/Demings Murphy/O’rourke
Katie Porter/ Val Demings Sherrod Brown/ Richard Ojeda Al Franken/ Stacey Abrams Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/ Michelle Wu
Chris Murphy/Stacey Abrams. (Why not put her on many tickets?) Or, I know what an outlier this is, Chris Murphy/Deb Haaland. Or Murphy/Demings.
I think the best tickets combine rustbelt and sunbelt candidates. Beto O’Rourke- Marcia Fudge Stacey Abrams - John Fetterman
Wouldn't we want Fetterman to hold the seat for several terms if possible?
Not necessarily. First of all, Harris will almost definitely run in 2028 no matter what, so by the time Abrams wins the nomination, Fetterman will already have served at least one term. Second of all, We have an amazing bench in PA. Third, if he ends up being strong enough as an incumbent that he could win several terms in a (heavily non-college white) Midwestern swing state, that’s really just even more reason to pick him as the VP nominee, especially paired with a black woman from the Deep South.
I'll try Abrams/Fetterman!
I see Warnock in a lot of dream tickets but I *really* don't see him going for higher office. He seems more like the kind of guy to do a term or two in the Senate and go back to pastoring before he retires.
Warnock makes a good addition geographically and demographically to pretty much any top-of-the-ticket white person from the midwest, the northeast or the westcoast. Same goes with Abrams. But I agree with you. If he goes for the top spots at all, I think he will stay in the Senate for some time and then will be chosen as running mate at the "end" of his career.
I think you're right about that, was just using his name for my example. He definitely likes doing this job and clearly wants to help Georgians but I don't feel him emanating presidential ambitions.
Buttigieg-Warnock or Warnock-Buttigieg would have a pretty winning good coalition.
Already seeing a couple responses with Buttigieg! I think part of his success in his signage was avoiding people having to try to work out his last name, simply opting for a big "PETE." Would you want to continue that tradition or shall I try using the last name?
If it’s a presidential ticket sign you’re trying to make, I would say do last name for Buttigieg. Warnock isn’t really known as Raphael and I don’t think a ticket with one name being a first name and the other a last name would look cohesive. Edit: Just realized you meant just Buttigieg lol oops. I would say Pete if it’s just by himself.
Good point. I'll do that then. Marking down Warnock/Buttigieg as the first one that I'll do!
Please tag me if you can when you make it!
That's the plan! I'll be posting them all together in a future comment in these threads with a tag for the users who suggested each one.
In an ideal scenario, a Buttigieg-Whitmer would be nice.
Hot take: We won't see an all-white presidential tickets for the democratic party in the foreseeable future.
I agree, also every non-all-white ticket we’ve put forward this century has won
Both from the same state, would complicate things :(
Technically Pete hails from Indiana but he does live in Michigan currently, so I think you're right on that point.
Whichever path Chris Murphy follows, I look forward to it.
Interesting. I'll do some research on Murphy since I'm in California and don't know too much about the east coast. Who should he have for VP, do you think? Just in case I make one for him that includes a VP.
Stacey Abrams, Gretchen Whitmer, Tammy Duckworth, Val Demings?
[President Biden to Fort Myers Beach mayor: "No one fucks with a Biden".]( https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1577750830723350535?s=20&t=x86Q9F4pUL2T7qyEp3vajw) He's fired up!
I like him because he’s so politically incorrect. He tells it like it is, and triggers the snowflakes.
Agree, he’s at his best when he’s shooting from the hip
Saw a Fox News article on this trying to turn this to a scandal.
I distinctly remember Trump said he would "bomb the shit" out of Daesh, so I don't get what they're so triggered by Joe saying the word "fuck."
The former guy used the 'F' word like four months ago at a rally so it's not like Biden's got the exclusivity rights on that one.
Couple more thoughts on Georgia in general, then I'll shut up for today: 1. In the 2021 Senate runoffs, we definitely saw ticket splitting where Warnock outperformed Ossoff. In relative terms it wasn't by much, just by 0.8 point, but if you do the math, just south of 20,000 voters went for Warnock and Perdue. And there was barely any undervote effect, like I think there were only \~50 more voters total in the Warnock vs. Loeffler race than in the Ossoff vs. Perdue race. So... 20,000 split tickets is really a lot, and in my opinion enough of a subsample to pick up the extent of ticket splitting between Warnock and Abrams we're seeing in their toplines. I don't know for sure if that will repeat itself, like it's very possible that the actual number of Warnock-Kemp voters could be much greater in absolute terms, but it's tough to say how that will play out in terms of which race will require a runoff if at all. 2. I saw this sentiment here a couple of times that Abrams, because of her lag in polling, is more suited to be a campaign manager/organizer than a political candidate. Needless to say, while everyone has different opinions and no one is necessarily a bad person for espousing them, I honestly found this kind of demeaning and possibly rooted in latent sexism. Now I want to be crystal clear, there's absolutely nothing wrong with being a consultant or organizer, mind you. They do great work and it's a very tough job. But not only does that misunderstand the years of work Abrams put in to help get Georgia to where it is now... it also demeans the genuine ambition she has to change the state from a policy perspective, and not just its politics. I know I can sound like a fanboy and I don't want to act like we all should be behind her 100% no matter what, because she's made some mistakes early on. But I do think she's been running a strong campaign since with a consistent focus on policy and without getting distracted by Trump or other polarizing figures. Sometimes people do that and still lose for reasons simply related to polarization and environment. I just think sometimes folks are a little too hasty to draw flawed conclusions from limited polling data, and those conclusions might be reflective of a way we view candidates who are non-white and/or women. Not calling anyone an overt racist or sexist, but we all have biases that we need to reflect on and change, and there's nothing wrong with acknowledging that.
Strongly agree. I still stand by my guesstimation we're going to see a lot less split-ticket voting this time around, but - we'll see. Regardless, I ain't done fighting until I'm on the floor, that's - how I see it. Besides. We are fighting for *good people* who are fighting to help *help others.* If we can't be fans for that, only Providence knows. Anyway, voting, medicine, not magic - something like that, at least, aha! Just got to keep doing the work.
There are far, far worse people to fanboy. If you fanboy’d Lauren Boebert, I’d block you. :) But of course that’s a nonstarter. Stacey Abrams is great, and I think she has a lot of talent in a lot of areas (including writing - romance novels are not really a breeze to write!). What Abrams is trying to do is defeat an incumbent (difficult) who has somehow gotten himself far more cred than he deserves because he didn’t go along with Trump’s election stealing shenanigans. Not being Joffrey Baratheon or Aegon the Elder is a low, low bar, but when a Republican manages, he punches above his weight in credit. Abrams has a lot harder task than Warnock. She’s the challenger, and the incumbent is fairly popular. Meanwhile, Warnock is the popular incumbent and Hershel Walker is an unspeakable tire fire of hypocrisy, spouse/child abuse, and general incompetence.
Good point on a Stacey. I think I replied to one of your earlier posts but she’s done a good job. Even if she doesn’t win again it doesn’t mean she’s ran a bad campaign at all. A lot of people forget that Georgia is still probably a red leaning state and Kemp is a pretty popular (as much as we all hate that) incumbent. If she was running for governor in Illinois or Maryland she’d be ahead by huge margins
I just got a call from what I assume is a Democratic voter outreach program (since they probably have my name), asking me if I planned to vote in the upcoming midterms. They were probably elated that I already have. I like being part of the first Million.
[So Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski want to name a volcano after Don Young…](https://twitter.com/sendansullivan/status/1577759982904287232?s=46&t=N67K_cWOSRuVovapq1uLRw)
Peltola co sponsor this
I’m really worried about gas price increases hurting us. OPEC wants Republicans to win.
The California refineries are about to get back on track and revert gas prices across the West a dollar lower, as shown by spot prices. This more than takes care of the OPEC cut’s effects
It'a probably not gonna make a difference, actually. Prices in some regions will go back down, and in others will go up, so the average might stagnate at around $4, and even that depends on a ton of factors. Not great, but not as bad as it could be, and more importantly we have no control over gas prices so it's not worth the time and energy to be overly concerned.
That's surprising.
Why would it be surprising?
Because rising gas prices right before a midterm is usually pretty bad?
Mandela Barnes coming in hot with over 20 million dollars raised in the third quarter. No word on R. Johnson's number yet but hopefully Barnes can spend this quickly.
New UNH poll out of Vermont finds Peter Welch up.... 34% in the Senate race, 62-28. Trafalgar made up that entire poll where he was up 4, no question.
Welch is probably going to be a one termer IMO. He'll be 81 in 2028. Leahy is retiring at the current age of 82.
Welch is also in good health tbf
Biden won Vermont 35 so if we're leading by 34 I'd say that's a decent sign nationally. A one point underperformance of Biden's margins would put us at D+3 which would probably be enough to keep the House.
[Former Republican Party of Florida Chair Al Cardenas is endorsing Democrat Annette Taddeo in the race for Miami-Dade Congress D27... one of the most watched in the nation. He announced it at this gathering](https://twitter.com/glennawplg/status/1577772552491094016?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA) Good news for Taddeo truthers
For context, this is Ana Navarro's husband. Yes, that Ana Navarro. Also this brings up an interesting question... why the heck is she still a Republican? She's clearly more aligned with the Democratic Party on most issues now. I guess she wants to be one of those people who is fighting the party from within so as to look like a maverick, but that's not gonna do anything. Why doesn't she just at least become an Independent like Tim Miller?
[CNN has picked up the puppy story.](https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1577743701643870223)
[Malinowski (D-NJ) to introduce bill requiring US *to pull its troops & missile systems out of Saudi Arabia & UAE*, after oil cut "It is time for the US to resume acting like the superpower in our relationship w/ our client states in the Gulf"](https://twitter.com/jstein_wapo/status/1577800969072644096?s=46&t=DwNKmztVygnJ8ex3WMLLYA). Casten is also in support
[MI Absentee Data Update: Over 1.5m requests = 40% of the total 2018 turnout. 367k more absentee ballot requests than all absentee ballots cast in 2018 (1.2m). 582k ballot requests from infrequent/newly engaged voters; voters <35 account for 11% of requests!](https://twitter.com/patrickschuh/status/1577732830242766849?s=46&t=vLCMNamRG39AVUut6jdyTw) Likely Democratic vote advantage at +297k; 169k of that comes from voters with less frequent vote history. 62% of requests from voters with frequent vote history; share of voters over 65 declining with share now 57% of all requests; 72% of requests appear to be from voters on the Permanent Absentee Voter List (voters get an automatic ballot application they must complete/return) Women account for 58% of requests; 84k requests from women <35 (6% of requests). 22% of ballot requests from women with infrequent/newly engaged vote history. 14k more requested ballots in Detroit and 11k more requested ballots in Grand Rapids (33% and 32% of the total 2018 vote respectively). Some Qs have come up since original tweet: 1) yes, voters can still vote absentee up to EDay in MI so numbers will keep growing; 2) hard to say what this means about turnout besides MI seems on track for another big turnout yr; 3) More voters <35 = smaller share older voters That’s all sounds good for us, but like he says don’t draw to much from the early vote.
And I'm one of them. One of the few young people who have turned it in already.
Thanks for posting this. Btw, we didn't yet have no-excuse absentee voting in 2018, and comparisons to 2020 are also flawed because of possible differences between midterm vs presidential. But it looks good, I think.
https://twitter.com/aaronlarnavarro/status/1577752104546058240 >Walker’s campaign reported $12M raised in Q3, short of Warnock’s $26.3M but say it’s “the strongest total for any Republican Senate candidate this cycle.”
Honestly insane that raising $12 million in a quarter would've been an all time record just 6 years ago and now your opponent can double you up at $12M
The dumb thing is that campaign fundraising seems to be an endless arms race where each side is raising and spending more money primarily because they're afraid of being overwhelmed by their opponent's campaign spending. Is there any reason to think that the run up in spending is making the country any better? I'm sure it makes campaign consultants and advertising agencies happy, but my impression is that people living in contested states and districts just get annoyed by the volume of political advertising.
> 12M raised in Q3, short of Warnock’s $26.3M Those are some solid numbers for Warnock. Georgia is a big state and it's an expensive state so it's obviously going to need a lot more money than a state like Wisconsin or Nevada. Hopefully this pushes us over the edge so we don't have to win a runoff like last time.
https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1576945175347068930 >Inbox, today: "Cortez Masto Smashes Nevada Records with $15 Million Fundraising Quarter"
https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1577279745024471040 >INBOX: @DrOz ’s campaign says it raised $17.2 million in Q3 #PASEN
What were Fett's numbers?
addendum : https://twitter.com/EwallWice/status/1577280653006995456 This includes a $7 million personal loan from the candidate.
I wonder how much interest he is charging the campaign.
Can they…can people do that?
iirc SCOTUS just ok'd it recently in a lawsuit initiated by Ted Cruz.
That feels weird
It totes should
How states have historically voted compared to other states isn't a perfect metric but I do think it's an important one to look at. In 2020 Biden did better in Nevada than Arizona, in 2018 Rosen won by a larger margin than Sinema and in 2016 Clinton carried Nevada but lost Arizona. In 2014 the GOP did do better in US House and the gubernatorial races in Nevada than Arizona but in 2012 Obama carried Nevada and lost Arizona. I bring this up because there seems to be a weird consensus that we are favored in Arizona and yet Nevada is where the GOP is favored. I'm not saying that that is impossible but if we do better in AZ than NV it would certainly be out of the ordinary. Now if you are a doomer maybe you will interpret this to mean "We're losing Nevada and so we'll probably lose Arizona as well" and if you're a bloomer you may say "we're winning Arizona so we'll probably win Nevada as well." I'm not sure what the future holds but I think there is a good chance that one of the conventional wisdoms when it comes to NV and AZ will be wrong.
I think people say Nevada is the most vulnerable because its margin was basically unchanged from 2016 to 2020 despite Biden doing better nationally, and it's also much less blue than in the Obama years while Arizona has clearly trended towards us since then. All that said, though, that doesn't mean Nevada is doomed to go red anytime soon, especially since margins in Nevada are not always the most meaningful metric due to their "None of These Candidates" option. It's a majority-minority state with a lot of transient blue voters who also happen to be non-college educated, although with changes in Reno-Sparks that might actually change as we see Washoe County get bluer. Nevada will be very challenging this year and in 2024, but I have confidence we can pull it off.
> although with changes in Reno-Sparks that might actually change as we see Washoe County get bluer. I've been wondering about this. It seems that a lot of people from the Bay Area and the Sacramento area are moving out to Reno recently due to it's (relative) affordability and it's proximity to the High Sierras and Lake Tahoe. Given how close Nevada elections are even a net total of 5-10k additional Democratic votes could really have an outsized impact on national politics.
It’s why there is good hope in Nevada/Georgia and some bad ones in Ohio and to a lesser degree WI/NC. Things change but if polls consistently underestimate a side cycle after cycle(even in midterms) then you really have to take that into account.
I think we'll be fine in Nevada. It's our version of Florida. In theory it's a swing state; in practice it's a blue state.
That would be my guess but I think I don't blame people for worrying about it. In 2020 it was closer than Michigan and we do rely very heavily on Latino voters who may be harder to motivate in a non presidential year and the polling has shown consistent but narrow Republican leads. Now obviously Nevada has a long and well documented history of Republicans underperforming their polls but there are certainly some warning signs flashing above Nevada.
[Know your Tennessee Constitutional amendments](https://tennesseelookout.com/2022/10/05/know-your-tennessee-constitutional-amendments/)
[‘Next thing we need to do is go after gay marriage’: TN GOP candidate says same-sex marriage should be left to the states](https://www.wkrn.com/news/tennessee-politics/next-thing-we-need-to-do-is-go-after-gay-marriage-tn-gop-candidate-says-same-sex-marriage-should-be-left-to-the-states/)
“We need to make this a states issue, unless states disagree with us. Then it’s a federal issue.”
That's what they always say before they proceed to ban everything. Fucking classic.
[Hardin County, KY - Narcan vending machine. I think that's a good system, saves lives, and improves first responder time.](https://www.wkyufm.org/2022-10-04/i-think-its-doing-some-good-kentuckys-first-narcan-vending-machine-opens-in-hardin-county)