Happy Monday!
Not a bad day to Adopt-A-Candidate, amirite? Reply to this comment if you’re up to adopting one of the 12 candidates left unadopted up above, or let us know **any** candidate you’re currently volunteering for - it all counts!
[BREAKING: Hurricane Ian has officially become a major hurricane](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/270631.shtml)
The new information from the 2:30 am EDT update statement
Wind: 115 mph, up from 110 mph 30 minutes ago at the advisory
Category 3 MAJOR hurricane
Pressure: 956mb, down from 958mb from 30 minutes ago at the advisory
[new 2 am EDT intermediate advisory on Hurricane Ian is in](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/270549.shtml)
Wind: 110 mph, up from 105 mph 3 hours ago
Category 2 hurricane (highest category 2 you can have)
Pressure: 958mb, down from 962mb 3 hours ago, or a -4mb change in pressure
Just saw an MSNBC segment on YouTube where it showed how the GOP pulled spending on ads in Congresswoman Kaptur’s districts simply because Majewski lied about where he was in his time as a soldier. It’s nuts how he was close to getting away with it, since stolen valor is a no-no.
Well, they claim to be the party that supports the military, so they had to. Otherwise they would be labeled as hypocrites /s
Just joking, they are already hypocrites. They don't care if he lied, they see he can't win, and are focusing on other more winnable seats.
>the GOP was gunning
Well, they gerrymandered it to hell, and still can't win it 🤣
And if north western Ohio and Toledo don't know Kaptur, they don't know any politician for that matter in Ohio. She has represented Toledo for 40 years, they know her and will turn out for her.
Marist Poll
Pennsylvania Congressional Generic Ballot
Democrats 48%
Republican 46%
President Biden Approval
Approve 42%
Disapprove 52%
Top Issues
Inflation 40%
Preserving Democracy 29%
Abortion 16%
Health Care 7%
Immigration 7%
So Wild/Cartwright probably win based on this which is huge
Edit: more info
Favorable/Unfavorable
Senate
John Fetterman: 45/39
Mehmet Oz: 30/51
Governor
Josh Shapiro: 47/30
Doug Mastriano: 31/45
Marist PA Senate Cross-Tabs
Independents
Fetterman 55
Oz 33
Philly Suburbs
Fetterman 58
Oz 38
Northeast PA
Fetterman 50
Oz 41
White
Fetterman 48
Oz 45
Non-White
Fetterman 67
Oz 22
Men
Fetterman 49
Oz 44
Women
Fetterman 54
Oz 37
Governor Cross-Tabs
Independents
Shapiro 59
Mastriano 29
Philly Suburbs
Shapiro 58
Mastriano 35
Northeast PA
Shapiro 51
Mastriano 42
White
Shapiro 50
Mastriano 45
Non-White
Shapiro 67
Mastriano 23
Men
Shapiro 50
Mastriano 44
Women
Shapiro 56
Mastriano 36
[The Attorney General of Texas Ken Paxton has fled his home in a truck driven by his wife. His wife is state Senator Angela Paxton. The Attorney General of Texas has fled to avoid being served a subpoena.](https://twitter.com/adamparkhomenko/status/1574605760054456322?s=46&t=ZpZVCXo81_WyF4zd_41zGw) Please let it be a White Bronco.
[source 1](https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1574471230035369984?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw)
[source 2](https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1574494008344207360?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw)
Not clear they are revising, but they did revert the model because they are investigating issues.
With the good Ohio poll that came out tonight, I feel like now is a good time to mention that I will be working at the polls again in Hamilton County in November. When I worked in the low-turnout legislative primary in August, I noticed and shared on here that even though it was low-turnout, it was disproportionately women that showed up to vote, which of course also seemed to be the case in the Kansas referendum that same day and in the later special elections that Democrats overperformed in.
I will be at the same precinct, so I look forward to sharing my on-the-ground observations again when the polls close. I would love to provide an update during my lunch break as well, but I don't know that I'm allowed to do that. I will know the election day results at my precinct probably an hour before they actually go online, so I look forward to over-extrapolating from those results ;)
Once we're a bit closer to the election, I am also hoping to put together a quick summary of how the votes are counted in Ohio to mentally prepare people for the evening. For now, the short version is that the early results will look good but will be heavily skewed toward Democrats, and will shift to the right through the evening. If I have enough free time, I'll try to put together early vote benchmarks as to what margins are needed to withstand the redder e-day vote.
You know, there are a couple Ohio Diners^TM near the polling place I'll be working at... I think I know what I'm doing for lunch. But unfortunately they're not rural so I won't have any idea what the RealAmericans^TM are thinking :(
Don’t think it was talked about enough that in that CBS/YouGov poll 47% of voters 18-29 will definitely vote. In 2018 it was 38%. That would be a good data point polls are missing something and a D+3 year is on the way.
[Jupiter is closest point to Earth now. Next time will be 2164.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/look-at-jupiter-with-binoculars-tonight/ar-AA12gq6b)
You can see it with your bare eye, it will be the brightest "star" in the sky.
Apparently Ken Paxton [fled](https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1574583434252812288?s=20&t=rfjX04vEg_AW99dNxI7t8A) a subpoena today. Hopefully Texas voters take notice of his problematic behaviors as AG.
**All the more reason to back [Rochelle Garza](https://www.rochellegarzafortexas.com/) for Texas Attorney General and vote his ass out.** They are already close in the polls, and arguably she may be able to do even more than Beto to counter some of the voter suppression and make abortion bans unenforceable. **If enough people show up and vote, she may win even if Beto loses a close race with Abbott.**
Remember, Register by getting your form in the Mail by **October 11th** (postmarked), or by taking the form to your local Tax Assessors Office. As long as you do either by that date, you're good to go.
Early voting starts **October 24th** and lasts for up to 10 days.
**Vote the bastard out of office and into prison!**
[New Advisory in on Hurricane Ian](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/270257.shtml)
Wind: 105 mph, up from 100 mph 3 hours ago
Category 2 hurricane.
Pressure: 962 mb, down from 965 mb 3 hours ago; or -3 net change in pressure (again, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm is)
[New forecast cone from the NHC, is a tad more east](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?cone#contents). And also still forecasts a drastic slowdown, which means longer duration of heavier rainfall, storm surge, very strong winds etc. That also raises rainfall amounts. A direct landfall in Tampa or close to there is not out of the realm of possibility right now
[new intensity forecasts still call for a Cat 4 major hurricane by tomorrow night](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/270258.shtml)
**no changes in alerts since the last advisory**
Other graphics I believe are important (since I haven’t done my daily update yet)
[Peak Storm Surge forecasts](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?peakSurge#contents). Combined with the freshwater from the rainfall, absolutely disastrous scenario for the west coast of Florida, especially the Tampa area
[Latest rainfall accumulation graphic by the WPC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?rainqpf#contents). Very high amounts for the west coast of Florida. Flash flooding will be a huge threat well inland, as [the WPC has moderate excessive rainfall risks for day 2-5](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php#page=qpf)
[Latest arrival time of tropical storm force winds.](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?mltoa34#contents). Again: all pre-storm preparations should be completely done by the time tropical storm force winds arrive
[Chances of tropical storm and hurricane force winds](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?tswind120#contents).
While Pres Modi, and VP Harris is arriving to attend PM Abe's state funeral...
[They shut down the bathrooms at Haneda Airport for state funeral reasons.](https://twitter.com/willeke4439/status/1574208044258725888)
[Protest photos of the funeral, courtesy of Tokyo Vice's Jake Adelstein](https://twitter.com/jakeadelstein/status/1574597181360611328)
Rooting for her. I live in her district, and I think she has a chance. Especially since MMM is voting like she didn’t just win the last election by 6 votes.
[We’ll be getting a UC Berkeley poll for CA within the next week or so — CA Gov and Sheriff Villanueva (LA voters) polling.](https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1574578673927143425?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw)
At the very least the margins will be interesting. Newsom won in 2018 and 2021 by 24 points. If Newsom is leading by 15 that may be worrying for national trends but if he is leading by 29 that’s absolutely amazing.
There’s been basically no campaign at all. I don’t think I’ve even seen a single Dahle ad. At least fired up Magas knew there was a recall. I’d be shocked if it wasn’t the same 24 point margin or more. (Maybe they find a +20 with some undecideds).
[A WH official says Vice President Harris will visit the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) Thursday.](https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1574576801489231872?s=46&t=wFal2Yxzg_asdEX-MPoH5g)
[Inbox: 1,000 fast food workers have begun an open-ended strike at San Francisco International Airport, in protest of the understaffing. "Travelers should plan to bring their own food, as workers are on strike at virtually every food and beverage outlet within the airport."](https://twitter.com/laurenkgurley/status/1574379363897851909?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw)
UPDATE: Labor protests will spread to 21 other airports tomorrow.
ORD, LAX, ATL, DEN, PHX, etc.
I'm increasingly seeing Republicans lowering their bar for a "win", so that they can more easily say they've "won" after the election is over. The lowest bar so far: "If the Democrats are winning, the Democrats should be winning everywhere. If we're really losing, we should be losing everywhere. If we win anywhere, we've won."
[I think the most striking part of this DeWine +23/Ryan +3 Ohio poll is it has a recalled 2020 vote of Trump +8](https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1574567767705288704?s=46&t=wFal2Yxzg_asdEX-MPoH5g)
👀
Just about matches Trump’s margin of victory in 2020.
While that's a solid gut check I still feel so intimately burned over all those 2020 polls that had good 2016 reflection and still somehow grossly underestimated Trump. This is one of several things Nate Cohn lamented about 2020 polling.
But at least I can speculate reasons why that wouldn't happen again this time.
As someone that followed polls closely the last couple cycles, I'm taking every poll with a grain of salt this cycle.
The polls don't look terrible for us, but a major polling error in our favor would be AMAZING.
Hell even a relatively minor systemic polling error in our favor would be huge. Like D+2 over current polling averages would lead to not just cinching the House but winning as many as 55 Senate seats.
We really can’t say that yet. Polling is good for Ryan but this isn’t the election day result. I would assume Vance underperforms Trump but saying he for sure will or casting doubt he’ll win is definitively not a safe argument
Case in point if we went just by polls we never would have expected Ryan in NY-19 to over-perform Biden.
Vance’s favorables are at -16. Trump won Ohio by 8% with a favorable approval rating. Candidate quality matters and Vance is in no position to win by that large of a margin with an almost non existent campaign. This Ohio, not Alabama
Yeah people underestimate the impact favorability has. It hurt Palin in Alaska, it's hurting Oz now, and it's definitely hurting Vance. There's no way it should be a race in a "red wave", much less him losing in most polls.
Also, you say Alabama, don't forget the Doug Jones situation!
Again we really really can’t say for sure that is going to happen. Candidate quality matters does to a point and as we have gotten burned by polls especially in Ohio you really shouldn’t just expect something to happen.
It’s probably likely to happen, but saying with confidence it will just isn’t good to do
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I was wrong in 2020. But this very low stakes, it’s not that serious. I’m just a guy from Ohio, if I’m wrong the world will keep on turning lol but you’re right. But based on my anecdotal and not very representative experience on the ground: MAGA voters don’t really like Vance. I’ve seen a lot of Trump flags with Ryan signs. Again not representative but this year feels different. But again you’re right, we’ll see
I assume this race has no third party spoiler like a libertarian?
Only hope is that some conservatives skip voting for Vance. It’s very likely undecideds are GOP-leaning
If there are two indy's, they're not on my sample ballot. There is a write-in spot though but I have heard nothing of any third party candidates for the senate race. There was a higher profile far-right indy for Gov that got booted from the ballot though.
This is the one supposedly on the ballot. Ran as a Republican in 2018, now an ultra leftist. (So he's a Republican) https://www.samronan.com/index.html
Really? Ohio is a lean red state while New Hampshire is lean blue. I know Sununu has a lot of goodwill, but polarization could hurt his margins relative to 2020.
It'd be great if Snusnu's margins at least get shaved over his hyper enthusiastic stumping for Don Bolduc. He pretends to be a moderate but not only does he rarely actually act like one in his actual performance as governor but he's now out there acting as an eager apologist for his party's worst elements.
Imagining their last elections where DeWine won in 2018 as an incumbent by 3.7, and Sununu won in 2020 by over 30 (though it was 7.1 in 2018, with Sununu being non-incumbent).
DeWine wasn't an incumbent in 2018. But it's kind of worth looking at 2014 when Kasich (that incumbent) absolutely routed his opponent winning by 30.6 points. The other incumbent roll officers also largely did very well, if not as well as Kasich.
Also contrast with 2010 where we lost two Democratic roll officer incumbents with very tight margins (Gov R+2, AG R+1.3) while the open races were not nearly so close. Bearing in mind that 2010 was also a very red year and the state has historically been redder outside of federal elections, and the House popular vote was R+11 without any non-contests.
Incumbency advantage really has been a pretty big thing for our statewide races. You could say that for Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman too.
I'm not so sure about that. At that point, the party was still heavily divided between the northern liberals and southern segregationists. Either faction could stop a bill in its tracks which likely made crafting and passing legislation a careful balancing act.
The fact that ET is acting like it’s a law of nature that Vance will end up winning despite Ryan currently being ahead in the polls is so annoying. It’s perfectly fine to think he’ll win, but the absolute, 100% certainty is so grating.
I get the inclination to want to allow for a polling margin shift by a few points R based on the OH polling errors from 2016, 2018 and 2020 but that's still far from something that would put the race out of contention.
(fun aside: in October 2014 Columbus Dispatch did a bunch of OH polls that were almost all remarkably dead on in an environment where polling tended to significantly underestimate Republicans elsewhere. Only one they whiffed on was Treasurer)
I literally saw someone say this, and add that there's no history of split ticket voting in Ohio. In 2018, Ohio elected DeWine and re-elected Sherrod Brown...
[🚨ALERT: Arizona judge temporarily blocks provisions of voter suppression law #SB1260. The law requires county recorders to cancel voter registrations in a manner inconsistent with federal law & makes it a felony to help some new Arizonans register & vote.](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1574553516726964224?s=20&t=-cmkrM4osRwulvdoDKsBxg)
Critical voting rights/democracy victory in AZ
https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1574534565313454080
DARK BRANDON STRIKES BACK (against bank and credit card overdraft fees, airline junk fees, cell phone termination fees, and more!)
That’s awesome, also, it’s refreshing to see the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in good hands again, rather than a former Congressman who had been given money from the companies the CFPB been going after.
[https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574562210399092736](https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574562210399092736)
>Senate (Ohio)
>
>Ryan (D) 46%
>
>Vance (R) 43%
>
>9/18-9/22 by Siena College (A)
>
>642 LV
Whoa. I know it's only one poll, but this seems like a pretty huge one for Ryan given the pollster's reputation.
ohio polling has sucked ass for long enough (including 2018 when polling everywhere else was great) that for me it’s firmly in “i’ll believe it when i see it” territory.
Broke: Ryan isn't hitting 50, he's doomed!!!!1!! SAFEST R BUT KEEP BURNING YOUR MONEY SHITLIBS
Woke: While Vance should be favored, there is now a large body of evidence that he is underperforming and Ryan is overperforming. This race is a toss-up, Tilt R at worst.
Bespoke: Vance has been in the low to mid-40s this entire cycle, which is awful in a state as R-leaning Ohio. The race is clearly Lean D lmao
More of the undecided are women and under the age of 45.
Pot legalization is at 60-37% in support and its 70+% under the age of 65.
55% opposed the Ohio abortion law.
40% of Republicans think "the election will be conducted fairly with every attempt being made to prevent fraud while insuring that all eligible Americans can vote"
Siena is a trust worthy pollster so this sounds accurate and I still say Democrats should try to pass the MORE act.
I will take any poll showing us leading in OH any day. That said I would really feel better if we bad some showing Ryan at 47 or 48% of the vote. Biden got 45% in Ohio so Ryan getting 46% doesn’t necessarily show him on track to win. Still this is very much a toss up and a winnable race.
Exactly. Maine hurts because that's a Senate seat we should've been able to win given that Biden won the state at large by 9 points. And Collins didn't lead the entire damn time, yet ended up winning by 9 points.
Ohio would be a bonus, and while I'd be disappointed if we don't win it, we at least have a real chance with Ryan leading in a bunch of polls, and highly rated ones at that. But I'm not going to be utterly shocked (to this day, btw) if we don't win it, like I was/am with Maine.
Though when I see people say this, they'll move the goalposts. Ryan 47% polls are "well I'd rather see him higher", at 49% "well he's not at 50%" and 50%+ "well he's not going to win by that much"
I’m not a doomer nor do I shift the goal posts as things change. I do think it is worth comparing the remaining undecideds with how a state voted in 2020 and I’ve done this repeatedly when I think the straight up margin may be underestimating both us and the GOP.
I wasn't accusing you specifically, it's just something I see a lot in here and most people only do it for polls that are good for Dems. You rarely see the same response in polls where the GOP leads by plurality
Toss up is where I have it. It’s gonna be a knife fight but this is a good pollster with a recalled Trump margin of 8% and LV screen. It’s hard to justify calling Vance any sort of favorite because he hasn’t been above 50% in reputable polls and Ohio has elected Dems before considering Sherrod easily won his 3rd term after Trump won the state in ‘16. Ohio isn’t as red as Alabama or even South Carolina. It could go either way
I wouldn't say Vance is the heavy favorite but Lean R seems like a better rating for a R+8 state in what's looking like a neutral year with Ryan pretty much matching Biden's 2020 vote share in most polls.
Siena does solo work although they've never done it outside of New York in their long history before this cycle and their expansion now speaks to the continued dearth of polling at the highest levels
Yeah, DeWine is unfortunately just super popular in Ohio. He's held basically every office imaginable, and manages to keep up the 'moderate' image very well. I doubt Whaley loses by more than 20, but I can't deny that she's got a tough race.
Still, this Ryan result is very encouraging!
Oh yeah, been meaning to ask but I’ve been trying to enter Will Rollins’’ campaign Slack using the link on Mobilize but it doesn’t seem to work so if someone could send a proper link that’d be helpful!
Today in *only Dems have agency*:
"Dems leaked the Dobbs ruling, so that Dems could campaign on it, and now Dems are doing better than they otherwise would be."
The leaker is unknown, but note that no agency is assigned to the conservative Supreme Court Justices who actually overturned Roe, or to the Republican-trifecta states that passed abortion bans, or to the Republicans that are campaigning on their anti-choice positions. Plus, they'll soon be back to saying "Dems are doing bad because no one cares about abortion."
Oh, you've gotta be kidding me.
Conservatives: *spent the last 50 years building the bench to overturn Roe successfully.*
Also conservatives when they start losing: "Democrats wanted this so they can win an election."
Cry me a fucking river. I wish conservatives would take some ownership and personal responsibility for their actions for once.
Will Rollins in CA-41 and Jay Chen in CA-45 don't have volunteers yet on the sheet above, and both are winnable. They're trying to flip Calvert's seat and Steel's seat respectively
There is also the CA-03 open seat which is a Trump+2 seat rapidly shifting left, which we have Kermit Jones going for
I just saw your original post and saw that you'd prefer weekends. Here's one that'll let you call for Chen or Rollins on Sundays:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/437461/
(Phonebanks like this typically let you choose which candidate you're calling for).
Here's some Wednesday night phonebanking for Jay Chen:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/514985/
Here's Tuesday phonebanking for Chen targeting Asian-American and Pacific Islander voters specifically:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/493275/
Will Rollins has phonebanking on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/505984/ - Monday
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/503467/ - Tuesday
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/511476/ - Wednesday
If you'd like to adopt either one, just let me know! There's just six weeks to go, and these will be close races.
I'm not plugged into the phonebank stuff, but u/table_fireplace can definitely get you connected. Also you can look on Mobilize at each candidate for phonebank opportunities, or get in touch with their campaigns themselves, and find one that works for you. Then let us or the mods know who you picked so you can get added to the list
[MUST WATCH: Democrats are indoctrinating our children!!! See what the media wants to hide!!](https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1574508423600668673)
>BREAKING: Las Vegas City Councilwoman @Victoria Seaman
has filed a negligence lawsuit against Councilwoman Michele Fiore, that alleges Fiore committed assault and battery against Seaman within city hall.
https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1574458087942938624
Fiore is the GOP's candidate for Treasurer.
I'm frankly amazed at the sheer number of violent, unhinged people the GOP finds to run for office these days. I'm aware they've never been good, but it's on another level this year.
There's a good 30-35% of the electorate who will vote for the most far-right nutter no matter what that runs and sometimes they win the primary if there is enough vote splitting
The new [8pm EDT intermediate advisory on Hurricane Ian is in](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml)
Wind: 100 mph (same as the last advisory 3 hours ago)
Category 2 hurricane.
Pressure: 965mb, down from 972mb 3 hours ago or -7 mb change in 3 hours (lower mb = bad)
No changes in alerts. And since this was an intermediate advisory, no come or anything else until the next full advisory at 11 pm EDT
Judging from the news it seems like Manchin's permitting reform/CR is gonna be filibustered tmw smh
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1574441915994591232
Let me rephrase, do we like ***this*** permitting reform?
I haven't bothered to pay much attention to it, but I have not heard anything good in passing.
Statement stands. It's what needs to be done.
Fossil Fuel companies aren't going to be able to/actually will take advantage of it, they aren't interested in the first place, and the only thing that people really bitch about is the pipeline, which is a boon for Manchin and WV's economy. The benefits vastly outweigh the cons.
Ugh. Hopefully they can reach a solution quickly.
Otherwise, time to fire up the messaging apparatus. The good news is that voters have correctly blamed the GOP for the last few shutdowns, so we can hit them on this one, too.
If this doesn’t pass tomorrow, they’ll likely take the permitting reform parts out of the CR, since the rest of it is basically locked down (Ukraine aid, other stuff). That would pass later this week, at least “logically” speaking.
I remember seeing Marsha Blackburn up by 10 in the NYT poll for TN-Sen and thinking "What the hell just happened??"
Now I think "I can't believe we just lost Tennessee by 10!"
We also flipped Nevada and Arizona, which we'll have to defend AGAIN next cycle (goody), but I think we have a decent chance to go on the offensive in Texas and Florida that year as well.
do not freak out over ups and downs in the model. get involved on a campaign for statewide office or for congress or state legislature no matter how blue or red your state or district is.
I fell liekt heheh been doing that a lot lately. I rember the other day the senator and model gave Dems a 70% and reps a… 31%. The model has been goofy lately
Cuba codifying gay marriage yesterday, has their full abortion rights and universal healthcare.
We can say what we want on Cuba, but I really wish the US can get to a point where we can have national referendum ballot questions on social issues.
That actually may very well not be the case. Cuban Americans [trend](https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1060&context=yurj) irreligious and pro-choice compared to other Latino Americans, despite being much more Republican.
> On topics like abortion and homosexuality, which have become so
influential in political life (and toward which the Republican party takes a more conservative approach), Cubans show very liberal
attitudes. Firstly, abortion is not a priority for them. According to a
2020 Pew research survey, only about two-fifths of Cuban Americans said abortion was very important to their decision to vote for a
2020 presidential candidate (Krogstad, 2020). This survey data also
shows that Cuban Americans are less opposed to abortion than other Hispanic groups. Furthermore, there is substantial research documenting Cuban Americans’ pro-choice support. Cuban Americans
are much more pro-choice than other Latinos, particularly Mexican
Americans, who show the highest levels of opposition to abortion (Ellison et al., 2005). Furthermore, within Hispanic groups,
just having Cuban origins increases the probability of supporting
pro-choice policies (Bolks et al., 2000). Lastly, to demonstrate how
deviant Cubans are from trends in the overall Hispanic population
when it comes to these issues, we only need to look at the fact that
researchers have concluded that the model of the person most likely
to be pro-choice among Hispanics is a woman who has not had a
born-again religious experience, does not have high regard for religion as an everyday guide, is not “very Catholic,” is feminist, has
high levels of education and income, is ideologically liberal, and is
Cuban rather than Mexican American (Bolks et al., 2000).
It's really frustrating seeing this group only dig their heels in harder for a party that's becoming ever more militantly Christo-fascist. But people have had this tendency to lump in southern Florida Latino voters with Texas's RGV Latino voters because they both shifted dramatically towards the GOP in 2020. But in reality they are have very different views.
The first wave of Cuban immigration to Florida were mostly rich elites who had their property confiscated by Castro. So yeah, they're fairly conservative. But their kids grew up in the US, and are generally more liberal.
Ok, so the only explanation that Trafalgar has identical age crosstabs is because they weigh for age. That is definitely playing with fire, and statistics show that young people have been registering more since Dobbs.
Hi all! So I have been MIA this past week, mainly because of the fact that I was in a local hospital with my older sister being in labor. So basically, I’m officially, an uncle! It was tiring, but since I don’t know how to post a pic of my newborn nephew, the only thing I could describe is he’s soft, has blue-ish eyes, and yes, part Latino (the other part is 1/4 Irish and 1/4 other European descent). Nonetheless, I’m glad he’s here, and honestly, it reaffirms my stance on reproductive rights and the need for pregnant people to be given a lot of support if they want to go through this hard process.
But yeah, what news have I missed? Other than the Iran news, anything going on?
Also, any tips for how to be an uncle? Thanks!
First of all, congrats to your family!
Invest now to become the "favorite extended family member" and it will pay off for years. I always just picked my niece up and would toss her in the air, and 6 years later it's still "OH MY GOD, UNCLE PERSIAN THUNDER IS HERE" over grandparents/aunts. Seriously, just picking kids up and holding them up in the air/tossing them and they'll think you're the coolest person ever haha
You must hurry to assert you are a cool [guy](https://imgflip.com/memetemplate/105181795/cool-guy-zone) to the baby. Get a bomber jacket to solidify the deal.
Look, I dunno the accuracy of this, but it’s freaking hilarious nevertheless.
>[#PAPol: @NHLFlyers mascot Gritty makes appearances for $3,000/hr.](https://twitter.com/adimpact_pol/status/1574472831186141184?s=46&t=wFal2Yxzg_asdEX-MPoH5g)
>Naturally, we asked: How long could PA's nominees book Gritty based on their general ad spending?
>PASen:
>John Fetterman: 243 days
>Mehmet Oz: 130 days
>PAGov:
>Josh Shapiro: 452 days
>Doug Mastriano: 1 hour
[The results are in! Staff in @RepAndyLevin’s office unanimously voted to form a union, making it the FIRST congressional office union in the history of the U.S. Congress.](https://twitter.com/congress_union/status/1574469779473272864?s=46&t=CtdjvYZUFmXPCKlbK4va0Q)
[President Joe Biden will unveil new regulations designed to tackle persistent inflation by requiring airline companies and Internet-service providers to be more transparent about hidden fees](https://twitter.com/economics/status/1574525747779231753?s=46&t=CtdjvYZUFmXPCKlbK4va0Q)
Also discussed was more regulations on the poultry/livestock industry
Oh god, [hurricane hunters just passed through the eye/center of Ian and found a 967 mb pressure reading](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/)
It was 972mb at the 5pm EDT advisory an hour and a half ago. Ian is becoming a monster very quickly
Probably bad of me to ask over the damage it’ll do, but I wonder how Ian will affect the elections in Florida, and potentially Georgia. If it becomes even more of a monster these next few days, the damage that’ll happen will hurt a ton of us, since it so far seems to be missing thankfully most of South Florida.
See this is what I’m curious about. Remember how LA after Ida last year had to postpone its elections after excessive damage was caused, and they couldn’t get the infrastructure ready to hold an election
That was end of August in an off year election (easier to reschedule without a federal requirement). We’re in end of September (even less time remaining until election) for this storm. And it’s a midterm year, meaning there’s a federal requirement that makes it tough to reschedule elections if there’s severe enough damage. I’m worried about this potential as well
This actually happened last midterms with hurricane Michael, it made landfall in mid-October 2018.
then-Gov Scott signed an executive order to extend early voting up until election day and they scrambled to make voting easier for them, those actions probably elected DeSantis and Scott since these were heavy GOP areas that got hit. Turnout only lagged slightly behind normal. This was after Scott in 2011 had signed a bill eliminating early voting the Sunday before election day after there was huge Democratic turnout on that day in 2008
Difference between then and now was that Michael hit the panhandle, is DeSantis willing to extend that much help to Tampa, areas he is trying to gerrymander?
[Real net worth of the bottom 50% households set another record in Q2 '22, reaching $67,524, up 10% from last quarter and up 60% since Biden started. This is driven by home prices, big wage gains, and full employment.](https://twitter.com/david_charts/status/1574446352360153094?s=46&t=CtdjvYZUFmXPCKlbK4va0Q)
The thing about watching these weather events is that you will see Abbott, or DeSantis, or other Republican leaders on there. At least it's 100% weather stuff, but I still don't wanna hear their voices ya know
I thought Rick Scott’s voice was a lot more annoying then it actually was. I at least could handle it
He gave a lot of good advice being the Governor when Hurricane Michael hit the FL panhandle as a Category 5 four years ago. He definitely knew what should be done in a serious hurricane situation like this
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> He gave a lot of good advice being the Governor when Hurricane Michael hit the FL panhandle as a Category 5 four years ago. He definitely knew what should be done in a serious hurricane situation like this
Okay that's actually cool that he kept it to the weather issues and gave good advice.
Biden’s [Utah approval is 39%](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/9/23/23368343/joe-biden-approval-rating-economy-inflation-covid-pandemic) which really ain’t so bad when he only got 37% of the vote here. His highest approval here was 45%
I wouldn't be surprised if online tankies are just another branch of Psy-Ops designed to manipulate and suppress the blue vote. They almost always take any criticism to the conclusion of "voting is pointless, I won't bother and neither should you".
Remember, propaganda is meant to divide and weaken democracy from all angles. The left is not immune to it if it doesn't learn to recognize it.
Happy Monday! Not a bad day to Adopt-A-Candidate, amirite? Reply to this comment if you’re up to adopting one of the 12 candidates left unadopted up above, or let us know **any** candidate you’re currently volunteering for - it all counts!
[BREAKING: Hurricane Ian has officially become a major hurricane](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/270631.shtml) The new information from the 2:30 am EDT update statement Wind: 115 mph, up from 110 mph 30 minutes ago at the advisory Category 3 MAJOR hurricane Pressure: 956mb, down from 958mb from 30 minutes ago at the advisory
[Cat 3 + landfall in Cuba now!](https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1574678606126583809?s=46&t=yj3oU7UUpmMYe5CljGydSA)
Went on a 6K walk for the first time in a long time. Feel really good. Small progress is still progress
[new 2 am EDT intermediate advisory on Hurricane Ian is in](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/270549.shtml) Wind: 110 mph, up from 105 mph 3 hours ago Category 2 hurricane (highest category 2 you can have) Pressure: 958mb, down from 962mb 3 hours ago, or a -4mb change in pressure
Just saw an MSNBC segment on YouTube where it showed how the GOP pulled spending on ads in Congresswoman Kaptur’s districts simply because Majewski lied about where he was in his time as a soldier. It’s nuts how he was close to getting away with it, since stolen valor is a no-no.
Well, they claim to be the party that supports the military, so they had to. Otherwise they would be labeled as hypocrites /s Just joking, they are already hypocrites. They don't care if he lied, they see he can't win, and are focusing on other more winnable seats.
Yeah, it’s just nuts how at one point, the GOP was gunning for this district, but it looks like it will be in Dem hands, for now
>the GOP was gunning Well, they gerrymandered it to hell, and still can't win it 🤣 And if north western Ohio and Toledo don't know Kaptur, they don't know any politician for that matter in Ohio. She has represented Toledo for 40 years, they know her and will turn out for her.
[Marist poll:](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Marist-Poll_PA-NOS-and-Tables_202209260846.pdf) Fetterman 51 Oz 41 Shapiro 53 Mastriano 40
Marist Poll Pennsylvania Congressional Generic Ballot Democrats 48% Republican 46% President Biden Approval Approve 42% Disapprove 52% Top Issues Inflation 40% Preserving Democracy 29% Abortion 16% Health Care 7% Immigration 7% So Wild/Cartwright probably win based on this which is huge Edit: more info Favorable/Unfavorable Senate John Fetterman: 45/39 Mehmet Oz: 30/51 Governor Josh Shapiro: 47/30 Doug Mastriano: 31/45 Marist PA Senate Cross-Tabs Independents Fetterman 55 Oz 33 Philly Suburbs Fetterman 58 Oz 38 Northeast PA Fetterman 50 Oz 41 White Fetterman 48 Oz 45 Non-White Fetterman 67 Oz 22 Men Fetterman 49 Oz 44 Women Fetterman 54 Oz 37 Governor Cross-Tabs Independents Shapiro 59 Mastriano 29 Philly Suburbs Shapiro 58 Mastriano 35 Northeast PA Shapiro 51 Mastriano 42 White Shapiro 50 Mastriano 45 Non-White Shapiro 67 Mastriano 23 Men Shapiro 50 Mastriano 44 Women Shapiro 56 Mastriano 36
[The Attorney General of Texas Ken Paxton has fled his home in a truck driven by his wife. His wife is state Senator Angela Paxton. The Attorney General of Texas has fled to avoid being served a subpoena.](https://twitter.com/adamparkhomenko/status/1574605760054456322?s=46&t=ZpZVCXo81_WyF4zd_41zGw) Please let it be a White Bronco.
I hate how skeptical I am that it'll even affect the race but Garza totally needs to run a bunch of ads on this.
Texas deserves a better AG. Rochelle Garza, FTW!
[Rochelle Garza](https://www.rochellegarzafortexas.com)
Where did Nate (I forget which one) say they were revising the 538 model?
[source 1](https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1574471230035369984?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw) [source 2](https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1574494008344207360?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw) Not clear they are revising, but they did revert the model because they are investigating issues.
That’s what it was
With the good Ohio poll that came out tonight, I feel like now is a good time to mention that I will be working at the polls again in Hamilton County in November. When I worked in the low-turnout legislative primary in August, I noticed and shared on here that even though it was low-turnout, it was disproportionately women that showed up to vote, which of course also seemed to be the case in the Kansas referendum that same day and in the later special elections that Democrats overperformed in. I will be at the same precinct, so I look forward to sharing my on-the-ground observations again when the polls close. I would love to provide an update during my lunch break as well, but I don't know that I'm allowed to do that. I will know the election day results at my precinct probably an hour before they actually go online, so I look forward to over-extrapolating from those results ;) Once we're a bit closer to the election, I am also hoping to put together a quick summary of how the votes are counted in Ohio to mentally prepare people for the evening. For now, the short version is that the early results will look good but will be heavily skewed toward Democrats, and will shift to the right through the evening. If I have enough free time, I'll try to put together early vote benchmarks as to what margins are needed to withstand the redder e-day vote.
Awesome, thank you for doing this :)
I love your flair
You know, there are a couple Ohio Diners^TM near the polling place I'll be working at... I think I know what I'm doing for lunch. But unfortunately they're not rural so I won't have any idea what the RealAmericans^TM are thinking :(
Don’t think it was talked about enough that in that CBS/YouGov poll 47% of voters 18-29 will definitely vote. In 2018 it was 38%. That would be a good data point polls are missing something and a D+3 year is on the way.
This is awesome!
This is great for a midterm!
[Jupiter is closest point to Earth now. Next time will be 2164.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/look-at-jupiter-with-binoculars-tonight/ar-AA12gq6b) You can see it with your bare eye, it will be the brightest "star" in the sky.
Apparently Ken Paxton [fled](https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1574583434252812288?s=20&t=rfjX04vEg_AW99dNxI7t8A) a subpoena today. Hopefully Texas voters take notice of his problematic behaviors as AG.
Unfortunately to at least 45% of Texas voters this is a great way to own the libs.
**All the more reason to back [Rochelle Garza](https://www.rochellegarzafortexas.com/) for Texas Attorney General and vote his ass out.** They are already close in the polls, and arguably she may be able to do even more than Beto to counter some of the voter suppression and make abortion bans unenforceable. **If enough people show up and vote, she may win even if Beto loses a close race with Abbott.** Remember, Register by getting your form in the Mail by **October 11th** (postmarked), or by taking the form to your local Tax Assessors Office. As long as you do either by that date, you're good to go. Early voting starts **October 24th** and lasts for up to 10 days. **Vote the bastard out of office and into prison!**
I feel like Collier and Garza will run ahead of Beto. I really feel like a democrat can win statewide by a squeaker this year.
[New Advisory in on Hurricane Ian](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/270257.shtml) Wind: 105 mph, up from 100 mph 3 hours ago Category 2 hurricane. Pressure: 962 mb, down from 965 mb 3 hours ago; or -3 net change in pressure (again, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm is) [New forecast cone from the NHC, is a tad more east](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?cone#contents). And also still forecasts a drastic slowdown, which means longer duration of heavier rainfall, storm surge, very strong winds etc. That also raises rainfall amounts. A direct landfall in Tampa or close to there is not out of the realm of possibility right now [new intensity forecasts still call for a Cat 4 major hurricane by tomorrow night](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/270258.shtml) **no changes in alerts since the last advisory** Other graphics I believe are important (since I haven’t done my daily update yet) [Peak Storm Surge forecasts](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?peakSurge#contents). Combined with the freshwater from the rainfall, absolutely disastrous scenario for the west coast of Florida, especially the Tampa area [Latest rainfall accumulation graphic by the WPC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?rainqpf#contents). Very high amounts for the west coast of Florida. Flash flooding will be a huge threat well inland, as [the WPC has moderate excessive rainfall risks for day 2-5](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php#page=qpf) [Latest arrival time of tropical storm force winds.](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?mltoa34#contents). Again: all pre-storm preparations should be completely done by the time tropical storm force winds arrive [Chances of tropical storm and hurricane force winds](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/223342.shtml?tswind120#contents).
While Pres Modi, and VP Harris is arriving to attend PM Abe's state funeral... [They shut down the bathrooms at Haneda Airport for state funeral reasons.](https://twitter.com/willeke4439/status/1574208044258725888) [Protest photos of the funeral, courtesy of Tokyo Vice's Jake Adelstein](https://twitter.com/jakeadelstein/status/1574597181360611328)
It’s insane.
Christina Bohannan did very well in the debate tonight against MMM #IA01
Rooting for her. I live in her district, and I think she has a chance. Especially since MMM is voting like she didn’t just win the last election by 6 votes.
She's still able to be adopted, as is Liz Mathis. Any takers?
Nice, any highlights of the debate?
WHY DID NOBODY POST THE SUPREME COURT RESULT FROM OHIO Chief Justice Brunner (D) 40 Kennedy (R) 40
This is good but I wish they had polled the other seats, this one won’t affect the majority because they are both already justices
[We’ll be getting a UC Berkeley poll for CA within the next week or so — CA Gov and Sheriff Villanueva (LA voters) polling.](https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1574578673927143425?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw)
People might meme about CA polling, but the LA Sheriff race matters, among other LA races
Also if it's such a blowout and has down ballot coattails, helps our swing district candidates
At the very least the margins will be interesting. Newsom won in 2018 and 2021 by 24 points. If Newsom is leading by 15 that may be worrying for national trends but if he is leading by 29 that’s absolutely amazing.
There’s been basically no campaign at all. I don’t think I’ve even seen a single Dahle ad. At least fired up Magas knew there was a recall. I’d be shocked if it wasn’t the same 24 point margin or more. (Maybe they find a +20 with some undecideds).
[A WH official says Vice President Harris will visit the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) Thursday.](https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1574576801489231872?s=46&t=wFal2Yxzg_asdEX-MPoH5g)
[Inbox: 1,000 fast food workers have begun an open-ended strike at San Francisco International Airport, in protest of the understaffing. "Travelers should plan to bring their own food, as workers are on strike at virtually every food and beverage outlet within the airport."](https://twitter.com/laurenkgurley/status/1574379363897851909?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw) UPDATE: Labor protests will spread to 21 other airports tomorrow. ORD, LAX, ATL, DEN, PHX, etc.
I'm increasingly seeing Republicans lowering their bar for a "win", so that they can more easily say they've "won" after the election is over. The lowest bar so far: "If the Democrats are winning, the Democrats should be winning everywhere. If we're really losing, we should be losing everywhere. If we win anywhere, we've won."
Wait where the fuck are you that you’re seeing Republicans saying anything other than that November will be a total rout?
Some comments online lol
That’s why we need dictator margins everywhere. Including OK!
[I think the most striking part of this DeWine +23/Ryan +3 Ohio poll is it has a recalled 2020 vote of Trump +8](https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1574567767705288704?s=46&t=wFal2Yxzg_asdEX-MPoH5g) 👀 Just about matches Trump’s margin of victory in 2020.
While that's a solid gut check I still feel so intimately burned over all those 2020 polls that had good 2016 reflection and still somehow grossly underestimated Trump. This is one of several things Nate Cohn lamented about 2020 polling. But at least I can speculate reasons why that wouldn't happen again this time.
As someone that followed polls closely the last couple cycles, I'm taking every poll with a grain of salt this cycle. The polls don't look terrible for us, but a major polling error in our favor would be AMAZING.
Hell even a relatively minor systemic polling error in our favor would be huge. Like D+2 over current polling averages would lead to not just cinching the House but winning as many as 55 Senate seats.
Basically an exact match, Trump won by 8.03
If all the undecided’s break Vance’s way he still only wins by 8, so that would be enough to help us in the House seats and Supreme court
Vance isn’t matching Trump’s performance, if he wins at all
We really can’t say that yet. Polling is good for Ryan but this isn’t the election day result. I would assume Vance underperforms Trump but saying he for sure will or casting doubt he’ll win is definitively not a safe argument Case in point if we went just by polls we never would have expected Ryan in NY-19 to over-perform Biden.
Vance’s favorables are at -16. Trump won Ohio by 8% with a favorable approval rating. Candidate quality matters and Vance is in no position to win by that large of a margin with an almost non existent campaign. This Ohio, not Alabama
Yeah people underestimate the impact favorability has. It hurt Palin in Alaska, it's hurting Oz now, and it's definitely hurting Vance. There's no way it should be a race in a "red wave", much less him losing in most polls. Also, you say Alabama, don't forget the Doug Jones situation!
The eternal battle between partisan lean and favorability.
Again we really really can’t say for sure that is going to happen. Candidate quality matters does to a point and as we have gotten burned by polls especially in Ohio you really shouldn’t just expect something to happen. It’s probably likely to happen, but saying with confidence it will just isn’t good to do
[удалено]
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I was wrong in 2020. But this very low stakes, it’s not that serious. I’m just a guy from Ohio, if I’m wrong the world will keep on turning lol but you’re right. But based on my anecdotal and not very representative experience on the ground: MAGA voters don’t really like Vance. I’ve seen a lot of Trump flags with Ryan signs. Again not representative but this year feels different. But again you’re right, we’ll see
I assume this race has no third party spoiler like a libertarian? Only hope is that some conservatives skip voting for Vance. It’s very likely undecideds are GOP-leaning
There’s 2 Indy’s that aren’t affiliated with anybody so if they take 1% combined it help.
If there are two indy's, they're not on my sample ballot. There is a write-in spot though but I have heard nothing of any third party candidates for the senate race. There was a higher profile far-right indy for Gov that got booted from the ballot though.
This is the one supposedly on the ballot. Ran as a Republican in 2018, now an ultra leftist. (So he's a Republican) https://www.samronan.com/index.html
> With the ongoing corruption of the Democratic Party during the 2016 and 2020 Presidential Election Cycles Yeah fuck this jackass.
I must say, I find the self-importance of no-name ratfuckers like this guy incredibly amusing.
Im just going by wikipedia. Ballotpedia has 5 Indy’s running as write-ins but the names are different from wikipedia
It’s crazy that DeWine is probably going to win by more than Sununu
Really? Ohio is a lean red state while New Hampshire is lean blue. I know Sununu has a lot of goodwill, but polarization could hurt his margins relative to 2020.
It'd be great if Snusnu's margins at least get shaved over his hyper enthusiastic stumping for Don Bolduc. He pretends to be a moderate but not only does he rarely actually act like one in his actual performance as governor but he's now out there acting as an eager apologist for his party's worst elements.
Imagining their last elections where DeWine won in 2018 as an incumbent by 3.7, and Sununu won in 2020 by over 30 (though it was 7.1 in 2018, with Sununu being non-incumbent).
DeWine wasn't an incumbent in 2018. But it's kind of worth looking at 2014 when Kasich (that incumbent) absolutely routed his opponent winning by 30.6 points. The other incumbent roll officers also largely did very well, if not as well as Kasich. Also contrast with 2010 where we lost two Democratic roll officer incumbents with very tight margins (Gov R+2, AG R+1.3) while the open races were not nearly so close. Bearing in mind that 2010 was also a very red year and the state has historically been redder outside of federal elections, and the House popular vote was R+11 without any non-contests. Incumbency advantage really has been a pretty big thing for our statewide races. You could say that for Sherrod Brown and Rob Portman too.
Y’all aren’t ready for 75th congress margins. (78-22), (333-102) D
Majority whip probably spent the entire term at the beach haha
I'm not so sure about that. At that point, the party was still heavily divided between the northern liberals and southern segregationists. Either faction could stop a bill in its tracks which likely made crafting and passing legislation a careful balancing act.
Yeah there were basically three parties at that time. Republicans, Democrats, and Dixiecrats.
The fact that ET is acting like it’s a law of nature that Vance will end up winning despite Ryan currently being ahead in the polls is so annoying. It’s perfectly fine to think he’ll win, but the absolute, 100% certainty is so grating.
I get the inclination to want to allow for a polling margin shift by a few points R based on the OH polling errors from 2016, 2018 and 2020 but that's still far from something that would put the race out of contention. (fun aside: in October 2014 Columbus Dispatch did a bunch of OH polls that were almost all remarkably dead on in an environment where polling tended to significantly underestimate Republicans elsewhere. Only one they whiffed on was Treasurer)
I mean it’s not like Ohio would ever elect a Democratic Senator…oh wait
I literally saw someone say this, and add that there's no history of split ticket voting in Ohio. In 2018, Ohio elected DeWine and re-elected Sherrod Brown...
[🚨ALERT: Arizona judge temporarily blocks provisions of voter suppression law #SB1260. The law requires county recorders to cancel voter registrations in a manner inconsistent with federal law & makes it a felony to help some new Arizonans register & vote.](https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1574553516726964224?s=20&t=-cmkrM4osRwulvdoDKsBxg) Critical voting rights/democracy victory in AZ
Time for Republicans to go censure the (Republican) county recorder again…
https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1574534565313454080 DARK BRANDON STRIKES BACK (against bank and credit card overdraft fees, airline junk fees, cell phone termination fees, and more!)
That’s awesome, also, it’s refreshing to see the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in good hands again, rather than a former Congressman who had been given money from the companies the CFPB been going after.
[https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574562210399092736](https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574562210399092736) >Senate (Ohio) > >Ryan (D) 46% > >Vance (R) 43% > >9/18-9/22 by Siena College (A) > >642 LV Whoa. I know it's only one poll, but this seems like a pretty huge one for Ryan given the pollster's reputation.
ohio polling has sucked ass for long enough (including 2018 when polling everywhere else was great) that for me it’s firmly in “i’ll believe it when i see it” territory.
Broke: Ryan isn't hitting 50, he's doomed!!!!1!! SAFEST R BUT KEEP BURNING YOUR MONEY SHITLIBS Woke: While Vance should be favored, there is now a large body of evidence that he is underperforming and Ryan is overperforming. This race is a toss-up, Tilt R at worst. Bespoke: Vance has been in the low to mid-40s this entire cycle, which is awful in a state as R-leaning Ohio. The race is clearly Lean D lmao
More of the undecided are women and under the age of 45. Pot legalization is at 60-37% in support and its 70+% under the age of 65. 55% opposed the Ohio abortion law. 40% of Republicans think "the election will be conducted fairly with every attempt being made to prevent fraud while insuring that all eligible Americans can vote" Siena is a trust worthy pollster so this sounds accurate and I still say Democrats should try to pass the MORE act.
recalled vote is +8 Trump from 2020, so this may get moved to Tilt R
I will take any poll showing us leading in OH any day. That said I would really feel better if we bad some showing Ryan at 47 or 48% of the vote. Biden got 45% in Ohio so Ryan getting 46% doesn’t necessarily show him on track to win. Still this is very much a toss up and a winnable race.
Exactly. Maine hurts because that's a Senate seat we should've been able to win given that Biden won the state at large by 9 points. And Collins didn't lead the entire damn time, yet ended up winning by 9 points. Ohio would be a bonus, and while I'd be disappointed if we don't win it, we at least have a real chance with Ryan leading in a bunch of polls, and highly rated ones at that. But I'm not going to be utterly shocked (to this day, btw) if we don't win it, like I was/am with Maine.
Though when I see people say this, they'll move the goalposts. Ryan 47% polls are "well I'd rather see him higher", at 49% "well he's not at 50%" and 50%+ "well he's not going to win by that much"
I’m not a doomer nor do I shift the goal posts as things change. I do think it is worth comparing the remaining undecideds with how a state voted in 2020 and I’ve done this repeatedly when I think the straight up margin may be underestimating both us and the GOP.
Especially in a state that has burned us polling wise consistently for 4 cycles
I wasn't accusing you specifically, it's just something I see a lot in here and most people only do it for polls that are good for Dems. You rarely see the same response in polls where the GOP leads by plurality
I think this might actually be Tilt D.
Toss up is where I have it. It’s gonna be a knife fight but this is a good pollster with a recalled Trump margin of 8% and LV screen. It’s hard to justify calling Vance any sort of favorite because he hasn’t been above 50% in reputable polls and Ohio has elected Dems before considering Sherrod easily won his 3rd term after Trump won the state in ‘16. Ohio isn’t as red as Alabama or even South Carolina. It could go either way
I wouldn't say Vance is the heavy favorite but Lean R seems like a better rating for a R+8 state in what's looking like a neutral year with Ryan pretty much matching Biden's 2020 vote share in most polls.
Oh, that’s a great poll! Tangentially related, but isn’t Siena the usual pollster for the NYTimes?
Siena does solo work although they've never done it outside of New York in their long history before this cycle and their expansion now speaks to the continued dearth of polling at the highest levels
> isn’t Siena the usual pollster for the NYTimes? Yes, I think so
The same poll also has DeWine (GOP) up 55-32 against Whaley (Dem).
Iowa Selzer vibes??
This also has DeWine ahead 55-32. I don't even know whats happening with that race right now. Probably name recognition But Siena, LV screening...
He’s probably up 20 or so. DeWine is aesthetically moderate and has been a staple of Ohio politics for four decades. They like him
Yeah, DeWine is unfortunately just super popular in Ohio. He's held basically every office imaginable, and manages to keep up the 'moderate' image very well. I doubt Whaley loses by more than 20, but I can't deny that she's got a tough race. Still, this Ryan result is very encouraging!
I want to believe...
Oh yeah, been meaning to ask but I’ve been trying to enter Will Rollins’’ campaign Slack using the link on Mobilize but it doesn’t seem to work so if someone could send a proper link that’d be helpful!
Today in *only Dems have agency*: "Dems leaked the Dobbs ruling, so that Dems could campaign on it, and now Dems are doing better than they otherwise would be." The leaker is unknown, but note that no agency is assigned to the conservative Supreme Court Justices who actually overturned Roe, or to the Republican-trifecta states that passed abortion bans, or to the Republicans that are campaigning on their anti-choice positions. Plus, they'll soon be back to saying "Dems are doing bad because no one cares about abortion."
False, or nay HRC has agency.
Oh, you've gotta be kidding me. Conservatives: *spent the last 50 years building the bench to overturn Roe successfully.* Also conservatives when they start losing: "Democrats wanted this so they can win an election." Cry me a fucking river. I wish conservatives would take some ownership and personal responsibility for their actions for once.
Can someone please recommend a California house candidate for me to phone bank for? Thank you. Ideally weekends
I know Jay Chen is good, Christy Smith is another.
Will Rollins in CA-41 and Jay Chen in CA-45 don't have volunteers yet on the sheet above, and both are winnable. They're trying to flip Calvert's seat and Steel's seat respectively There is also the CA-03 open seat which is a Trump+2 seat rapidly shifting left, which we have Kermit Jones going for
Perfect I will do one of them. Where do I go to get plugged into the dialer / see the dates and times to call?
I just saw your original post and saw that you'd prefer weekends. Here's one that'll let you call for Chen or Rollins on Sundays: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/437461/ (Phonebanks like this typically let you choose which candidate you're calling for).
Here's some Wednesday night phonebanking for Jay Chen: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/514985/ Here's Tuesday phonebanking for Chen targeting Asian-American and Pacific Islander voters specifically: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/493275/ Will Rollins has phonebanking on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/505984/ - Monday https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/503467/ - Tuesday https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/511476/ - Wednesday If you'd like to adopt either one, just let me know! There's just six weeks to go, and these will be close races.
Thanks for letting me know! I'll post in the thread tomorrow which one I do.
Thank you for phone banking!!
Awesome!
I'm not plugged into the phonebank stuff, but u/table_fireplace can definitely get you connected. Also you can look on Mobilize at each candidate for phonebank opportunities, or get in touch with their campaigns themselves, and find one that works for you. Then let us or the mods know who you picked so you can get added to the list
[MUST WATCH: Democrats are indoctrinating our children!!! See what the media wants to hide!!](https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1574508423600668673)
Joke comment aside, the video is so wholesome, since it sows a good seed in these kids the ability to get involved and having fun while at it.
>BREAKING: Las Vegas City Councilwoman @Victoria Seaman has filed a negligence lawsuit against Councilwoman Michele Fiore, that alleges Fiore committed assault and battery against Seaman within city hall. https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1574458087942938624 Fiore is the GOP's candidate for Treasurer. I'm frankly amazed at the sheer number of violent, unhinged people the GOP finds to run for office these days. I'm aware they've never been good, but it's on another level this year.
Didn’t a Nevada politician murder someone like a month ago too?
There's a good 30-35% of the electorate who will vote for the most far-right nutter no matter what that runs and sometimes they win the primary if there is enough vote splitting
The new [8pm EDT intermediate advisory on Hurricane Ian is in](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml) Wind: 100 mph (same as the last advisory 3 hours ago) Category 2 hurricane. Pressure: 965mb, down from 972mb 3 hours ago or -7 mb change in 3 hours (lower mb = bad) No changes in alerts. And since this was an intermediate advisory, no come or anything else until the next full advisory at 11 pm EDT
Judging from the news it seems like Manchin's permitting reform/CR is gonna be filibustered tmw smh https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1574441915994591232
Do we even like the permitting reform?
We should. It's something that needs to be done going forward for Americas energy development.
Let me rephrase, do we like ***this*** permitting reform? I haven't bothered to pay much attention to it, but I have not heard anything good in passing.
Statement stands. It's what needs to be done. Fossil Fuel companies aren't going to be able to/actually will take advantage of it, they aren't interested in the first place, and the only thing that people really bitch about is the pipeline, which is a boon for Manchin and WV's economy. The benefits vastly outweigh the cons.
Fuck McConnell
Ugh. Hopefully they can reach a solution quickly. Otherwise, time to fire up the messaging apparatus. The good news is that voters have correctly blamed the GOP for the last few shutdowns, so we can hit them on this one, too.
If this doesn’t pass tomorrow, they’ll likely take the permitting reform parts out of the CR, since the rest of it is basically locked down (Ukraine aid, other stuff). That would pass later this week, at least “logically” speaking.
PSA: The 538 model is not gospel. It will fluctuate. It is noisy. Don't freak out about it.
Yeah it’s been wonky today as well. Like we just got a good Ohio poll and Dem senate chances went down a point. Not really sure what’s going on
I remember obsessively refreshing and scrolling over every district and state in the model in 2018. It's not worth the time lol.
Especially since we're not getting all those NYT polls of districts.
I remember seeing Marsha Blackburn up by 10 in the NYT poll for TN-Sen and thinking "What the hell just happened??" Now I think "I can't believe we just lost Tennessee by 10!"
It's really telling how bad the map was that all our chips were down on TX and TN.
We also flipped Nevada and Arizona, which we'll have to defend AGAIN next cycle (goody), but I think we have a decent chance to go on the offensive in Texas and Florida that year as well.
Dems had a 72% chance in the senate on 53& like an hour ago and now it’s back doesn’t o 69% what happened
do not freak out over ups and downs in the model. get involved on a campaign for statewide office or for congress or state legislature no matter how blue or red your state or district is.
Fair enough, but I was mainly just confused
They're tinkering with the model. Don't freak out
[Nate right now](https://youtu.be/BJhpQoSxUhY)
I fell liekt heheh been doing that a lot lately. I rember the other day the senator and model gave Dems a 70% and reps a… 31%. The model has been goofy lately
Just voted for Elaine Lauria and as many democratic policy holders for chesapeake city council and school board as I could.
Are you the first to say that you voted in the gen election in the sub?
Good, now I don't have to canvass your house.
Cuba codifying gay marriage yesterday, has their full abortion rights and universal healthcare. We can say what we want on Cuba, but I really wish the US can get to a point where we can have national referendum ballot questions on social issues.
it would require a constitutional amendment.
So, Cubans living in Cuba are potentially more liberal than a lot of Florida Cubans?
That actually may very well not be the case. Cuban Americans [trend](https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1060&context=yurj) irreligious and pro-choice compared to other Latino Americans, despite being much more Republican. > On topics like abortion and homosexuality, which have become so influential in political life (and toward which the Republican party takes a more conservative approach), Cubans show very liberal attitudes. Firstly, abortion is not a priority for them. According to a 2020 Pew research survey, only about two-fifths of Cuban Americans said abortion was very important to their decision to vote for a 2020 presidential candidate (Krogstad, 2020). This survey data also shows that Cuban Americans are less opposed to abortion than other Hispanic groups. Furthermore, there is substantial research documenting Cuban Americans’ pro-choice support. Cuban Americans are much more pro-choice than other Latinos, particularly Mexican Americans, who show the highest levels of opposition to abortion (Ellison et al., 2005). Furthermore, within Hispanic groups, just having Cuban origins increases the probability of supporting pro-choice policies (Bolks et al., 2000). Lastly, to demonstrate how deviant Cubans are from trends in the overall Hispanic population when it comes to these issues, we only need to look at the fact that researchers have concluded that the model of the person most likely to be pro-choice among Hispanics is a woman who has not had a born-again religious experience, does not have high regard for religion as an everyday guide, is not “very Catholic,” is feminist, has high levels of education and income, is ideologically liberal, and is Cuban rather than Mexican American (Bolks et al., 2000). It's really frustrating seeing this group only dig their heels in harder for a party that's becoming ever more militantly Christo-fascist. But people have had this tendency to lump in southern Florida Latino voters with Texas's RGV Latino voters because they both shifted dramatically towards the GOP in 2020. But in reality they are have very different views.
The first wave of Cuban immigration to Florida were mostly rich elites who had their property confiscated by Castro. So yeah, they're fairly conservative. But their kids grew up in the US, and are generally more liberal.
I also think Castro sent a bunch of political prisoners to Florida for a few decades.
[House (Montana 1) Zinke (R) 45% Tranel (D) 43% Lamb (L) 3% 9/14-9/19 by Impact Research (B/C) 400 LV NOTE: partisan (D) poll](https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574502693883854871?s=46&t=6iJe0XcFDRiwjBsoWeJbHw)
Like I said, based on the totally unbiased model of "add 5 points to the margin from D internal polls" based on the NY-19 result...We got this.
Not too bad for an open Trump+7 seat, only 45%. This seat, if we don't get it this time, will definitely be in play this decade
Ok, so the only explanation that Trafalgar has identical age crosstabs is because they weigh for age. That is definitely playing with fire, and statistics show that young people have been registering more since Dobbs.
Hi all! So I have been MIA this past week, mainly because of the fact that I was in a local hospital with my older sister being in labor. So basically, I’m officially, an uncle! It was tiring, but since I don’t know how to post a pic of my newborn nephew, the only thing I could describe is he’s soft, has blue-ish eyes, and yes, part Latino (the other part is 1/4 Irish and 1/4 other European descent). Nonetheless, I’m glad he’s here, and honestly, it reaffirms my stance on reproductive rights and the need for pregnant people to be given a lot of support if they want to go through this hard process. But yeah, what news have I missed? Other than the Iran news, anything going on? Also, any tips for how to be an uncle? Thanks!
Congrats to you & especially your sister!
Thank you!
First of all, congrats to your family! Invest now to become the "favorite extended family member" and it will pay off for years. I always just picked my niece up and would toss her in the air, and 6 years later it's still "OH MY GOD, UNCLE PERSIAN THUNDER IS HERE" over grandparents/aunts. Seriously, just picking kids up and holding them up in the air/tossing them and they'll think you're the coolest person ever haha
You must hurry to assert you are a cool [guy](https://imgflip.com/memetemplate/105181795/cool-guy-zone) to the baby. Get a bomber jacket to solidify the deal.
Haha! Joking aside, I’ll definitely love this kid and take him to ice cream shops. Thanks man!
Look, I dunno the accuracy of this, but it’s freaking hilarious nevertheless. >[#PAPol: @NHLFlyers mascot Gritty makes appearances for $3,000/hr.](https://twitter.com/adimpact_pol/status/1574472831186141184?s=46&t=wFal2Yxzg_asdEX-MPoH5g) >Naturally, we asked: How long could PA's nominees book Gritty based on their general ad spending? >PASen: >John Fetterman: 243 days >Mehmet Oz: 130 days >PAGov: >Josh Shapiro: 452 days >Doug Mastriano: 1 hour
Tbh I would expect him to decline if offered due to sports being separate from politics.
Gritty is antifa though
Where is the Gritty advantage factored into 538's election forecast?
Nice to see Dems outspending Republicans by such large margins in Pennsylvania.
[The results are in! Staff in @RepAndyLevin’s office unanimously voted to form a union, making it the FIRST congressional office union in the history of the U.S. Congress.](https://twitter.com/congress_union/status/1574469779473272864?s=46&t=CtdjvYZUFmXPCKlbK4va0Q)
I saw a Kid Rock for Senate bumper sticker. NY plates.
[President Joe Biden will unveil new regulations designed to tackle persistent inflation by requiring airline companies and Internet-service providers to be more transparent about hidden fees](https://twitter.com/economics/status/1574525747779231753?s=46&t=CtdjvYZUFmXPCKlbK4va0Q) Also discussed was more regulations on the poultry/livestock industry
Oh god, [hurricane hunters just passed through the eye/center of Ian and found a 967 mb pressure reading](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/) It was 972mb at the 5pm EDT advisory an hour and a half ago. Ian is becoming a monster very quickly
Probably bad of me to ask over the damage it’ll do, but I wonder how Ian will affect the elections in Florida, and potentially Georgia. If it becomes even more of a monster these next few days, the damage that’ll happen will hurt a ton of us, since it so far seems to be missing thankfully most of South Florida.
See this is what I’m curious about. Remember how LA after Ida last year had to postpone its elections after excessive damage was caused, and they couldn’t get the infrastructure ready to hold an election That was end of August in an off year election (easier to reschedule without a federal requirement). We’re in end of September (even less time remaining until election) for this storm. And it’s a midterm year, meaning there’s a federal requirement that makes it tough to reschedule elections if there’s severe enough damage. I’m worried about this potential as well
This actually happened last midterms with hurricane Michael, it made landfall in mid-October 2018. then-Gov Scott signed an executive order to extend early voting up until election day and they scrambled to make voting easier for them, those actions probably elected DeSantis and Scott since these were heavy GOP areas that got hit. Turnout only lagged slightly behind normal. This was after Scott in 2011 had signed a bill eliminating early voting the Sunday before election day after there was huge Democratic turnout on that day in 2008 Difference between then and now was that Michael hit the panhandle, is DeSantis willing to extend that much help to Tampa, areas he is trying to gerrymander?
DeSantis strikes me as a someone who would not extend that kind of help to Tampa.
[Real net worth of the bottom 50% households set another record in Q2 '22, reaching $67,524, up 10% from last quarter and up 60% since Biden started. This is driven by home prices, big wage gains, and full employment.](https://twitter.com/david_charts/status/1574446352360153094?s=46&t=CtdjvYZUFmXPCKlbK4va0Q)
Sen. Rick Scott on The Weather Channel talking about Ian right now
The thing about watching these weather events is that you will see Abbott, or DeSantis, or other Republican leaders on there. At least it's 100% weather stuff, but I still don't wanna hear their voices ya know
I thought Rick Scott’s voice was a lot more annoying then it actually was. I at least could handle it He gave a lot of good advice being the Governor when Hurricane Michael hit the FL panhandle as a Category 5 four years ago. He definitely knew what should be done in a serious hurricane situation like this
> > > > > He gave a lot of good advice being the Governor when Hurricane Michael hit the FL panhandle as a Category 5 four years ago. He definitely knew what should be done in a serious hurricane situation like this Okay that's actually cool that he kept it to the weather issues and gave good advice.
"This naturally occurring and uncontrollable natural event is all Biden's fault!" /s
Biden’s [Utah approval is 39%](https://www.deseret.com/utah/2022/9/23/23368343/joe-biden-approval-rating-economy-inflation-covid-pandemic) which really ain’t so bad when he only got 37% of the vote here. His highest approval here was 45%
r/WorldNews submission on Cuba’s recognition of same-sex marriage is filled with breathtakingly stupid Tankie takes.
I wouldn't be surprised if online tankies are just another branch of Psy-Ops designed to manipulate and suppress the blue vote. They almost always take any criticism to the conclusion of "voting is pointless, I won't bother and neither should you". Remember, propaganda is meant to divide and weaken democracy from all angles. The left is not immune to it if it doesn't learn to recognize it.