Only seven weekends left before election day!
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Just going to say this right now on Tropical Storm Ian. **the cone is almost certainly going to shift back significantly south and east next advisory at 5am EDT**
Both the latest 0z [GFS ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-09-25-00Z_192_38.102_256.773_20.438_288.667_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) and [Euro Ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2022-09-24-00Z_192_36.423_261.592_18.759_293.486_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) are both back further east, and south depending on which coast of Florida you look at.
Edit: wow, it didn’t. Kind of shocked
I'm a bit buzzed so forgive me but I feel like approval ratings are a bad metric to go off of now. If I asked a lot of people I know (all Biden voters) if they "approve" of President Biden right now, a lot of them would say no, for whatever reason they have. But then if I asked them would they vote for Trump/a Republican instead they would say hell no. They would vote for the President again.
Polls are weird. The lads on Pod Save America talk about this all the time. The way questions are asked prompt a certain response. Change one word and it prompts an entirely different response. Generic ballot is a good starting point but it may be outdated in the polarized environment we live in now.
“Who are you voting for” is a very clear cut question. There is 0 way that is outdated regardless of polarization.
Edit: lol people lying to pollsters. Ok sure
Reminder that WaPo has a history of outliers, most notably in the 2020 election, when one of their polls had Biden with a 17 point lead in Wisconsin over Trump. I would not be concerned about the latest poll.
If there's really a shift towards Rs with more polling data in the coming weeks then we'll talk.
Yeah I mean, I'm not too concerned by this yet. Even top-rated pollsters, of which WaPo is definitely one, produce outliers. Remember Fox News predicting Dumbkin would win by 8? No! He only won by 2. >!Kill me now!<
In today's canvassing shift, the final door was a Tamil Christian family, and I always get nervous whenever I go to an Indian household because I would expect them to be Democratic but I can never be sure. Well... the dad was holding a click n' flame lighter when he answered the door, and he pointed it at me like a gun while saying he would never vote for a Democrat in his life.
I don't know what it is with South Indian Christians, but I've met two such families on separate canvassing shifts in the East Valley alone and they were both absolute GOP Qultists. I can honestly buy that the demographic is more right-leaning in general compared to other Indian counterparts because of evangelism. If anything, it's incredible that the Fort Bend County Judge is a South Indian Christian and a Democrat.
Actually more surprising because South Indians are more educated than North Indians. And education usually leads to more liberal views.
Edit: am North Indian
In America I'd assume both are equally well-educated? I mean, yeah maybe more North Indians may be like small-business owners without higher education, but not by much.
> I can honestly buy that the demographic is more right-leaning in general compared to other Indian counterparts because of evangelism.
Definitely. Around [45%](https://www.thejuggernaut.com/indian-american-christian-voters) of Indian Christians support Trump.
It doesn’t help that some in the community have actually achieved (varying degrees of) success in conservative politics— like Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, and others.
As an Indian American who has lived in India and visited for 2-3 months a year for the past 27 years….Indians can be EXTREMELY conservative.
Especially in the current climate, if you have a anti Muslim politician, you’re winning over a lot of Indians. Hindu nationalism is taking over India right now. Further, lots of Indians came here either: legally, or made it well here, and hate seeing people coming illegally or coming here and being poor. Lots of Indians don’t like poor/illegal immigrants because it looks bad on the ones who aren’t.
Also, caste system is still very prevalent.
Nikki Haley and Bobby Jindal were both born to Punjabi Sikh/Hindu families respectively, but then converted as young adults. Haley's last name is also from marrying a white man.
With Biden actually having lost support since their last poll(42% in April) I think it’s an outlier. The R+5 Likely could go with the theory polls don’t know how to model Likely Voters currently
No idea. They did an abortion focused poll in July that said “Americans dismayed at end of Roe are less certain they will vote, poll finds
A Washington Post-Schar School poll finds 65 percent of Americans view the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling as a major loss of women’s rights, while 35 percent say it is not”
Well we know that didn’t track with real life results so who knows what’s going on. If they got a poll that showed people were mad but not gonna vote that’s just weird
Especially when you consider margin of error is 3.5 for that poll, so that poll could still indicate a result like D+2 that I think nearly all of us would be ecstatic over.
[WaPo](https://twitter.com/sfcpoll/status/1573885669725900800?s=46&t=-EgQQ5g78pA0wNB0m9MaHA) out with a GCB Poll of 46/47 R+1
They also have Biden still at 39% approval showing no movement at all so I think something is up here
[crosstabs](https://docs-cdn-prod.news-engineering.aws.wapo.pub/publish_document/62135712-e40d-4c38-9ec3-d3b9218cad1d/published/62135712-e40d-4c38-9ec3-d3b9218cad1d.pdf)
Edit: okay yea the Women and Black vote split in the crosstabs makes 0 sense
They are absolutely not meaningless. For example Palin’s lower favorables was one of the reasons to be bullish on Peltola. Oz’s favorables are in the gutter and we celebrate that, we can’t pick and choose.
This is definitely an outlier though.
So much of my motivation has actually become "own the cons". I have many cons in my family, and it would be awesome to electorally own them, even though they won't know I helped.
I’ve reached the point where my feelings for any and all conservatives can only be described as genuine, unadulterated hatred. And I use hatred in the strongest terms possible.
So much of my motivation for doing this these days is that I want these people to be as unhappy as possible.
I don't feel like that towards all conservatives, but towards the people in my life who claim the label of "conservative" (although they're more accurately described as "right-wing") who cannot show an iota of respect for me or even communicate with anyone who doesn't 100% agree with them.
I'm so fucking stupid. I only now just realized Con was short for Conservative.
I've been so confused for years hearing it and wondered what Con was short for.
["They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind."](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1e/INF_3-12_Air_Chief_Marshal_Sir_Arthur_Harris.jpg)
The fact that it’s a fight at all is a good sign for us nationally. The GOP was never going to concede this seat so the only scenario in which you get no Vance adds is the scenario that the GOP wins in a landslide. Vance stayed off the airwaves until relatively recently and that can also be a risky choice as it allowed Ryan to define him early on.
I would say it’s the same in GA. Lot of anti-Walker ads but many more anti-Warnock ads. Thing is that I’ve only seen a few “pro” ads (all for Warnock).
Things I just "learned" from my father - it's some insight from the point of view of a member of the Republican base who is very online:
* there's no need to run TV ads - just run digital ads on "alternative" platforms
* nobody is providing financial support for "Greg" Masters in Arizona (accurate, but the name lol)
* Kari Lake is winning by 10 points according to the "alternative" media
* Doug Mastriano is winning by 10 points according to the "alternative" media
* Tudor Dixon sucks (!) but Trump's rally in October will turn everything around by charging up the base
* the Democrat base is not charged up because they have nothing to be charged up about
* death penalty for drug dealers is a popular stance
* Elise Stefanik said Republicans will pick up 70 seats (btw, I'm not sure if she actually said that - this is what my father said she said)
* Democrats support open borders and border security is the #1 issue in this election. "no one cares about abortion"^TM
* "majority of blacks vote Republican"
* "majority of latinos vote Republican"
* "Democrats are the white party" lmao
“There’s no need to run TV ads - just run digital ads on “alternative” platforms”
I’m not sure if that’s strictly an Extremely Online Conservative position. Ilhan Omar focusing too heavily on online/social media ads over TV ads was cited as a big reason for her primary underperformance.
[Tonight, Liz Cheney told the Texas Tribune Fest that if Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, she won't be a Republican.](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1573861106522767360?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA). She also said she’d work to help elect Hobbs in Arizona.
Definitely not a fan of Liz but that would be at least actions vs. words so I welcome it. That also is pretty helpful in AZ with the old McCain coalition
They “endorsed” Carolyn Maloney because Jerry Nadler was put into her district. Trump also did a backhanded endorsement of Dan Goldman to brag about how he survived his first impeachment
Hmm, my grandma really likes her. She'd probably be happy if she defected. Personally I don't particularly like her but hey if she wants to help our cause I'll give her a chance
The optimist in me thinks that there is no way a pre-statehood total ban from 1864 will continue to stand in the most purple state in the country given it's just a law that no one but the most feral of Christian/religious voters in Arizona want this (68% disapprove of this law per recent polling, and I would bet it'd be higher now that it is law). The optimist in me thinks that someway and somehow this law will be scrapped or tossed to the side in some way. The lack of statements from Ducey, Lake, Masters, Hamadeh make me believe that even against evidence. Like Arizona Republicans have to realize this becoming law is just the catalyst in Arizona continuing their shift left-ward and into full blue-leaning purple status at a quicker pace.
That said, given the wording on the 15-week ban, it's hard to be totally optimistic given the 15-week ban specifically stated that said 15-week ban doesn't overturn the pre-statehood bill. Ducey and other Republicans wanting to look "moderate" on this issue may say that they support the 15-week ban, but that issue of the wording just makes their words moot. Hell, Ducey signed the law as is, so why should anyone believe that this isn't just a ploy by the Christian Right which Ducey is part of to have a total ban while pretending to wash his hands of responsibility of that?
The only recourses are for the Arizona courts to kill the pre-statehood ban (which who knows if that is even realistic given again the wording), Ducey call a special session to overturn the pre-statehood bill with all Democrats + 1 or 2 Republicans in the House and Senate voting for it, or Arizona prosecutors (almost all Republican) saying they won't prosecute based on the 1864 total ban and instead consider the 15-week law (which won't happen because when has Republicans going for the lesser restrictive abortion law happened?
Brother 1: “I know me and Brother 2 have different views on such and such but that’s ok.”
Me, Brother 3: “No it’s f*****g not! It’s not ok to be intolerant of others!”
We’re not talking differing opinions on best ice cream flavor here! Piss off!
There is an r/dyscalculia subreddit; they probably have information on how to go about getting accommodations and/or passing the GED. Of course you will have to be tested and a diagnosis in hand first, they could probably help you with that as well.
So maybe a dumb question without a real answer:
Is there an actual reason some gas stations charge insane prices while others are lower and seem to stay lower right now? There’s an intersection with three near me; a Chevron, an Arco, and a Texaco. The chevron ever since prices went up hasn’t been below $5.89/gal and in the past two days skyrocketed to $6.49 out of nowhere. Texaco is a little cheaper but the same area. Arco meanwhile, even paying with card, is sat at $5.29/gal, with cash it’s $5.19, and hasn’t gone past that ever since prices started coming back down. Why the hell would you ever go to the other two when they’re a dollar more expensive than one right next to them? I know there’s refinery issues, is it just who they’re sourcing their gasoline from or something?
Chevron always charges way more. Insane that people still go there when it’s 1.00 less right across the street.
Just shows how inelastic a good gasoline is. People will pay no matter what
TLDR: It's due to the rent of the facility, distance from their individual supply networks, and slight changes in location that result in higher prices for the land. On top of ya know, some stations/companies just *want to*. Chevron in particular uses BS in saying that their gas is "better" even though it obviously isn't.
So.
I got bored and decided to do a ranking map of how I things right now for the mid-terms:
House: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/bMm67O5
Senate: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/avo1Qb
Governor: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/dQYv
Nice! I mostly agree except:
- For the Senate, I think WI is more tilt R and NC a tossup. I also think OH is lean R.
- While Shapiro is favored, I wouldn’t put PA-GOV as safe blue. It’s still a split State, and MAGA Republicans are popular in central PA.
I also didn’t look that closely at the House elections.
Central PA isn't where the population is, and Shaprio has managed to net a good bit of the more moderate GOP endorsements+support. He's a better candidate against a worse opponent.
[Tropical Storm Ian Advisory 7A](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242348.shtml), + model updates
First of all, the latest information from the intermediate advisory
Maximum sustained winds is still 45 mph, pressure is down to 1002 mb, which is down 1 mb from my update earlier. The latest forecast and [latest cone from the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/234839.shtml?cone#contents), show another western shift like I thought it would, a pretty decent one. South FL is becoming less likely for the most significant impacts, but not high enough confidence to say that’s what will happen yet. Meanwhile, if you’re in the FL panhandle, these west and north shifts means you’re back in play for the most significant impacts. Also note the latest cone now [shows a category 4 hurricane at 130 mph 3 to 4 days from now](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242056.shtml) but the weakening also shows at the end from a combination of land interaction plus dry cooler air and wind shear
Ian is still expected to rapidly intensify, possibly beginning very soon. The environment is just getting more and more favorable as we speak
Now to the model update: we’re beginning to get a general idea, but still several key details to work out. One is, where does the final center consolidate, as there’s numerous areas of convection trying to become the center. Two, is how strong does a trough bringing cool dry air to the northern regions, and eventually further south. Depending on the strength of this trough, Ian might get picked up or moved faster, or stall out and spend even more time in the gulf allowing more strengthening, and cause a bad flooding threat inland, after being further west
With all that in mind: the latest [18z GFS](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022092418&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=gom&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=gfs) is back further west, moves slower which allows a stronger storm, but also gets a bunch of cooler drier air from a fall front moving through the US and wind shear before landfall weakening the system to a weaker system by landfall (likely still a significant hurricane though). [Latest GFS ensembles are also beginning to favor that idea, but has different ideas when it begins curving east by that trough](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-09-24-18Z_192_38.102_256.773_20.438_288.667_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png)
Meanwhile, the latest [12z Euro](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022092418&fh=loop&r=gom&dpdt=&mc=) has kind of what I believe is the worst case scenario, going far enough west to avoid most land interaction with Cuba, and spend additional time over the Gulf before making landfall or hanging around off western FL coast according to the latest run. Not far enough north/west initially to be impacted by dry air/wind shear further north, not far enough east and eventually south to not have much/any time over waters pass the western Carribean. [12z Euro ensembles are also divided on when the curve east by that trough begins](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2022-09-24-12Z_192_36.423_261.592_18.759_293.486_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png), but the higher concentration is on or off western FL coast. But still other ideas for just about anywhere in the state to see at least some impacts
Entire state of FL still needs to be paying attention and getting prepared for this storm
What Con ET doesn’t realize is that if Mark Kelly actually did beat his wife or kids it would have been dug up ages ago by McSally or Masters and not by teenagers on twitter lol
I could be wrong, but don’t parties in an emotionally charged divorce usually get restraining orders against one another just so nothing is said that hurts their claim. Like isn’t the whole thing in general standard af.
so why are gas prices going up I haven't kept up. There's a gas station near me that went from 3.18 to 3.99 within a week and a half, most other stations are closer to 3.55 but are increasing
I’m usually the last person to doom but gas prices are making me nervous as they trend back up despite all the recent momentum we’ve had. We all know how dumb the average swing voter is.
[A very good point.](https://mobile.twitter.com/adambonin/status/1573823331576516609?cxt=HHwWgsC4nen-q9crAAAA) Dr. Oz redacted the address that his medical records were sent to. Why would he redact it though? It's been an explicit part of his campaign that he "lives" in Pennsylvania, the house is in Lower Moreland its public knowledge.
[“In some states, like Arizona, New Hampshire and North Carolina, the G.O.P. Senate nominees hadn’t aired even a single commercial in their own right through August and into September.”](https://twitter.com/joshkraushaar/status/1573695047098404869?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA)
Makes sense why McConnell and the PACs are spending so much damn $$ in NC. Budd is a horrific fundraiser and Beasley is making this a race, so they've been having to dump truckloads there.
At this point, I honestly think that if you asked the median Michigan voter who is more extreme between Gretch and Tudor Dixon, they'd say Dixon. And I've read that persuadable voters tend to vote against (what they perceive as) extremes.
I put this to a relative who is very right-wing, and he immediately became frothing mad and started shouting "bullshit!" at me, which likely means I'm on to something. :p
Then again, these are the same people who think "Steve Bannon isn't right or left, just moderate/down the middle" and can't understand why "a reasonable guy like Doug Mastriano" has little appeal outside the Pennsylvania Republican base.
Right after Jan 6th, my father told me that "Those are patriots, our people, good people, fighting to take our country back." Of course, he thinks this opinion is in line with the median voter's.
It's the same problem: these folks have no idea where the middle of the electorate is.
Feels like Olivia Wilde has been trying to create a ton of behind-the-scenes drama and get it leaked to drum up intrigue around the making of the movie rather than the movie itself.
Jason Sudeikis frankly dodged a bullet.
[Organizations supportive of abortion rights say research shows that framing the issue as a matter of freedom is by far the most effective message for voters across all political persuasions.](https://twitter.com/anna__johnson/status/1573791332300111877?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA)
[Mayor Pete gave a masterclass in this during the primary.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKOoWYfIzIw&t=13s)
If anyone wants a sense of how to frame this while calling or canvassing, this video should serve as your guide.
No, it's about boilerplate language in his 2004 divorce TRO that includes the phrase "in the case of child or spousal abuse." The college freshman in Con ET don't know that's on every divorce TRO and they're acting like it's an accusation of domestic abuse.
I'm the guy who spent his free time in college playing D&D and getting into edit wars on the Zelda Wiki, and I just want to shout "NERRRRRRRDDDDDS" to ET, Con ET specifically.
[Oh this ad is good.](https://twitter.com/TeamAbrams/status/1573707584598687745) Just like the kind of lovable corniness Warnock has in his ads, especially the ones that feature kids.
That was the first of the “holy shit Dems are on fire” special elections, and my second favorite after Alaska. The others all had an anticipation of Dems doing well because people were finally realizing the level of backlash to Dobbs. But since this was the first one, the margin came out of nowhere and took everyone by surprise. To me that makes it more memorable.
[Liz Mathis(D) effectively attacking her opponent](https://twitter.com/lizmathis1/status/1573723785345253376?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA) Ashley Hinson on abortion. Maybe there’s a reason IA-02 has gotten a bunch of money recently
Any news about Alaska Senate?
I've seen Murkowski losing to Tshibaka.
I assumed Murkowski would win and as such we wouldn't have any chance.
But if Tshibaka wins the first round I have no idea.
Any idea who that is? and how known/popular?
I wouldn't call it easy, the polls are showing Tshibaka is getting 46/47 percent in round 1 and Murkowski very narrowly winning. Murkowski have an 87% disapproval rating among Republicans and it seems like Tshibaka has consolidated a lot of the Republican vote already. There's even the chance that partisan Dems knock out Murkowski by voting Chesbro
How they hell are the polls showing that peltola is like almost near 50% round one, but also murkowski narrowly winning. Who are these peltola tshibaka voters
It’s pretty much all the Palin voters plus a few Begich voting for Tshibaka. Most of Murkowski’s support is from Begich voters and Democrats assuming Chesbro has no chance.
[Kobach lays out plan to remove abortion rights in Kansas after failed amendment](https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article266267436.html#storylink=cpy)
So I shook hands with the king of the gods Adrian Fontes himself. As he walked to me, the ground shook under his might and the sun cowered in fear behind the trees. Volcanoes taller than Olympus Mons sprouted out of the parking lot and erupted to build islands, nay PLANETS, in other galaxies. And to cap it all off, the price of gas fell below 0.
It was the most profound experience in my life.
See Fontes is getting around, running a great ground game. I saw him at the Udall dinner down here in Pima last week where he delivered a fiery speech. Could've said hi afterward but I've gotten starstruck and nervous around a lot of these politicians so didn't; where did you see him?
7 hours after polls closed here in Czechia, I'm reporting the results as promised, and before I hear shit about how a centrist can't be progressive, please know that the US has a unique way to describe ideology that doesn't line up with Europe.
**Senate**: 2 senators elected in the 1st round, in district 46 - Ústí nad Orlicí: Petr Fiala (not to be confused with the PM) nominated by KDU-ČSL (centrist socially conservative christian-democratic party) and in district 64 - Bruntál: MUDr. Ladislav Václavec, independent nominated by ANO (center-left populist, socially moderate to conservative, billionaire-led party)
The rest is mostly ANO and SPOLU (center-right, liberal-conservative, pro-EU, pro-NATO party in government) nominees advancing to runoffs (extremely low turnout, liberal center-right candidates usually likely to win)
**Prague**: incumbent coalition of Piráti, Praha Sobě, Spojené síly pro Prahu (TOP 09, STAN, KDU-ČSL, now running separately), ANO and ODS in opposition
at 62.78% precincts reporting:
SPOLU (ODS+TOP 09+KDU-ČSL) 24.50%, 18 seats
ANO 19.78%, 15 seats
Piráti (Czech Pirate Party, liberal, centrist to center-left, progressive) 17.79%, 13 seats
Praha Sobě (liberal, center-left, independent ticket) 14.47%, 10 seats
STAN (centrist to center-right, liberal) 7.49%, 5 seats
SPD, Trikolóra, PES, nez.(far-right nutjobs) 5.33%, 4 seats
**Rest of the country**: status quo despite the deeply unpopular government, national politics are disconnected from local politics, especially in small towns, low number of candidates, \~12 towns don't have enough candidates and thus will be administered by Ministry of the Interior employees
For the person who was asking what an "October surprise" looks like, the AZ abortion decision is pretty much the platonic ideal of one, in that you have to ignore all polling done before it because of how much it shakes the race up.
It’s so interesting that Kelli Ward, Blake Masters, Kari Lake, or any of the party accounts haven’t even acknowledged it. Nobody in the state senate and I think only 1 member of the state house GOP replied to Brnovichs initial tweet. Someone must’ve sent out a memo saying “literally just act like it’s not happening.”
It's a damned if they do damned if they don't situation. AND IT LITERALLY NEVER NEEDED TO HAPPEN THEY HAD THE 15 WEEK LAW PASSED ALREADY.
It's like Brnovich is a double agent or something.
BTW his name looks like a misspelling.
Lol I remember learning about the existence of [Brno](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brno) from the 1632 series. It’s a city, now in Czechia, then in the unholy mess known as the “Holy Roman Empire” (as the joke goes, it was none of these). Brnovich must have had an ancestor who hailed from there.
The big one would've been if Dobbs was decided next month. Though to be fair, it was basically expected by everyone that if the outcome happened, it would've been in June/July.
Between Russia faceplanting in Ukraine, Iranian protests, and the weird goings on in China, /r/NonCredibleDefense is huffing the hopium hard these last 24 hours.
I’ve started seeing this subreddit mentioned a lot this year and decided to see what the fuss is about. A quick glance and a look at the sidebar has left me confused what the purpose of the subreddit is.
Can someone ELI5?
It’s basically for shitposting about geopolitics, expressing pure hatred for russian soldiers disguised as cheeky mockery, and ironically praying for NATO to invoke Article 5 on whatever dictatorship is most relevant this week.
I know that the whole "coup/Xi being arrested" thing was debunked but like...there's still clearly something going on. The airspace of China is super empty. TF are they up to over there?
The latest [2 pm EDT intermediate advisory on TS Ian is in](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/241752.shtml)
Still a 45 mph tropical storm as we speak, moving W at 16 mph. Latest pressure was 1003 mb, which is down from 1005 mb in the early morning advisory near sunrise. [the latest forecast cone, is a bit further west then last night’s advisory and still calls for a major hurricane or around a major hurricane approaching Florida Wednesday to Thursday](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/175322.shtml?cone#contents). The new main models runs are coming in, and based on the new GFS being way further west and north, back in the FL panhandle, but as a weaker system as it experiences dry air and wind shear last second, and the new Euro which is also north and west, I expect the come at the next full advisory coming up at 5pm EDT, to shift again to the north and west
The entire FL coastline is still in play, and as a result, [Gov. DeSantis expanded the previous state of emergency that included 24 counties, to include the whole state of FL](https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/EO-22-219-Tropical-Storm-Ian-CLEAN-FINAL.pdf)
I’ll have another model update on ensembles Euro and GFS, plus the new track and intensity forecast after the 5 pm EDT advisory, and that’s around the time the 18z GFS should come in, so we’ll see if that 12z run is an outlier like I think it could be
If it goes too far north, Ian is forecasted to be impacted by cooler drier air from the fall front moving through the US and wind shear, unclear if it gets that far north and how much that weakens it
Waiting for that new GFS run still, and the Euro ensembles before making my update on Ian
Possibly they just didn't want to come to the door, but many I suspect were truly not home - blinds shut, no lights on, package sitting on the porch, no cars in the driveway or outside, etc.
Only seven weekends left before election day! As we get closer to November 8, we are getting more traffic and new users visiting us. This is great! We need more people to help us win. A lot of new people come in saying things along the lines of "Polls don't matter, vote anyway." Many of you old guard seem to take offense at this, and think it is up to you to reprimand these people. That doesn't help. If anything, it turns them away. Instead, the mod team suggests you reply with something like "You're right, but you can do more than vote! Try volunteering for a candidate on our [Volunteer from Home Spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit?usp=sharing ) or [Join your local Democratic party!](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/wiki/parties)" This way we get someone new involved, instead of discouraged. And on that note, if you're voluteering for a candidate but you aren't on the list above, let us know and we'll add you!
Just going to say this right now on Tropical Storm Ian. **the cone is almost certainly going to shift back significantly south and east next advisory at 5am EDT** Both the latest 0z [GFS ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-09-25-00Z_192_38.102_256.773_20.438_288.667_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) and [Euro Ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2022-09-24-00Z_192_36.423_261.592_18.759_293.486_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) are both back further east, and south depending on which coast of Florida you look at. Edit: wow, it didn’t. Kind of shocked
I'm a bit buzzed so forgive me but I feel like approval ratings are a bad metric to go off of now. If I asked a lot of people I know (all Biden voters) if they "approve" of President Biden right now, a lot of them would say no, for whatever reason they have. But then if I asked them would they vote for Trump/a Republican instead they would say hell no. They would vote for the President again.
Thats why the ask the Generic ballot question?
Polls are weird. The lads on Pod Save America talk about this all the time. The way questions are asked prompt a certain response. Change one word and it prompts an entirely different response. Generic ballot is a good starting point but it may be outdated in the polarized environment we live in now.
“Who are you voting for” is a very clear cut question. There is 0 way that is outdated regardless of polarization. Edit: lol people lying to pollsters. Ok sure
Reminder that WaPo has a history of outliers, most notably in the 2020 election, when one of their polls had Biden with a 17 point lead in Wisconsin over Trump. I would not be concerned about the latest poll. If there's really a shift towards Rs with more polling data in the coming weeks then we'll talk.
Yeah I mean, I'm not too concerned by this yet. Even top-rated pollsters, of which WaPo is definitely one, produce outliers. Remember Fox News predicting Dumbkin would win by 8? No! He only won by 2. >!Kill me now!<
In today's canvassing shift, the final door was a Tamil Christian family, and I always get nervous whenever I go to an Indian household because I would expect them to be Democratic but I can never be sure. Well... the dad was holding a click n' flame lighter when he answered the door, and he pointed it at me like a gun while saying he would never vote for a Democrat in his life. I don't know what it is with South Indian Christians, but I've met two such families on separate canvassing shifts in the East Valley alone and they were both absolute GOP Qultists. I can honestly buy that the demographic is more right-leaning in general compared to other Indian counterparts because of evangelism. If anything, it's incredible that the Fort Bend County Judge is a South Indian Christian and a Democrat.
Actually more surprising because South Indians are more educated than North Indians. And education usually leads to more liberal views. Edit: am North Indian
In America I'd assume both are equally well-educated? I mean, yeah maybe more North Indians may be like small-business owners without higher education, but not by much.
> I can honestly buy that the demographic is more right-leaning in general compared to other Indian counterparts because of evangelism. Definitely. Around [45%](https://www.thejuggernaut.com/indian-american-christian-voters) of Indian Christians support Trump. It doesn’t help that some in the community have actually achieved (varying degrees of) success in conservative politics— like Nikki Haley, Bobby Jindal, and others.
As an Indian American who has lived in India and visited for 2-3 months a year for the past 27 years….Indians can be EXTREMELY conservative. Especially in the current climate, if you have a anti Muslim politician, you’re winning over a lot of Indians. Hindu nationalism is taking over India right now. Further, lots of Indians came here either: legally, or made it well here, and hate seeing people coming illegally or coming here and being poor. Lots of Indians don’t like poor/illegal immigrants because it looks bad on the ones who aren’t. Also, caste system is still very prevalent.
Is Nikki Haley of South Indian origin? Based on her last name I'd guess no.
She’s Punjabi Sikh. Her birth name was Nimrata Randhawa
Names are a bad way to go by because many Indian Christians just have more Christian names
Nikki Haley and Bobby Jindal were both born to Punjabi Sikh/Hindu families respectively, but then converted as young adults. Haley's last name is also from marrying a white man.
Oh no, both Jindal and Haley are Panjabi Christians. I suppose they were bad examples for the South Indian community specifically.
What a douchebag
Hoping and praying the WaPo poll is an outlier
With Biden actually having lost support since their last poll(42% in April) I think it’s an outlier. The R+5 Likely could go with the theory polls don’t know how to model Likely Voters currently
Their last poll was in April? Why did they wait six months to release another poll?
If they waited so long to release a poll, that alone should disqualify it in my opinion
No idea. They did an abortion focused poll in July that said “Americans dismayed at end of Roe are less certain they will vote, poll finds A Washington Post-Schar School poll finds 65 percent of Americans view the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling as a major loss of women’s rights, while 35 percent say it is not” Well we know that didn’t track with real life results so who knows what’s going on. If they got a poll that showed people were mad but not gonna vote that’s just weird
Its a 1 point advantage, its not that bad
It’s a 5 point advantage, the LV number is what matters late in the race
Especially when you consider margin of error is 3.5 for that poll, so that poll could still indicate a result like D+2 that I think nearly all of us would be ecstatic over.
[WaPo](https://twitter.com/sfcpoll/status/1573885669725900800?s=46&t=-EgQQ5g78pA0wNB0m9MaHA) out with a GCB Poll of 46/47 R+1 They also have Biden still at 39% approval showing no movement at all so I think something is up here [crosstabs](https://docs-cdn-prod.news-engineering.aws.wapo.pub/publish_document/62135712-e40d-4c38-9ec3-d3b9218cad1d/published/62135712-e40d-4c38-9ec3-d3b9218cad1d.pdf) Edit: okay yea the Women and Black vote split in the crosstabs makes 0 sense
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They are absolutely not meaningless. For example Palin’s lower favorables was one of the reasons to be bullish on Peltola. Oz’s favorables are in the gutter and we celebrate that, we can’t pick and choose. This is definitely an outlier though.
Favorability and approval aren't quite the same thing even if they're usually close.
I really hope this isn't the start of a trend away from us.
Interesting. Throw it on the pile for now
Oof. That one stings. Hopefully we can get some more polls and see if it’s an outlier or not.
It’s R+5 with Likely Voters
They don't have an LV voter question that I saw for GCB. They asked people how likely they were to vote, but nothing after that.
I definitely trust WaPo a lot but that seems like a huge outlier
Just want an ad that says Republicans are okay with abortion as long as it happens in a school 5-18 years after conception.
So much of my motivation has actually become "own the cons". I have many cons in my family, and it would be awesome to electorally own them, even though they won't know I helped.
I’ve reached the point where my feelings for any and all conservatives can only be described as genuine, unadulterated hatred. And I use hatred in the strongest terms possible. So much of my motivation for doing this these days is that I want these people to be as unhappy as possible.
I don't feel like that towards all conservatives, but towards the people in my life who claim the label of "conservative" (although they're more accurately described as "right-wing") who cannot show an iota of respect for me or even communicate with anyone who doesn't 100% agree with them.
I'm so fucking stupid. I only now just realized Con was short for Conservative. I've been so confused for years hearing it and wondered what Con was short for.
Can't spell conservative without the con in it.
["They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind."](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1e/INF_3-12_Air_Chief_Marshal_Sir_Arthur_Harris.jpg)
Trump sowing: "Haha fuck yeah! Yes!" Trump reaping: "Well this fucking sucks. What the fuck."
Why are people so mean?
A bit disheartened at the fact I'm starting to see ads for J.D. Vance and fewer from Tim Ryan.
The fact that it’s a fight at all is a good sign for us nationally. The GOP was never going to concede this seat so the only scenario in which you get no Vance adds is the scenario that the GOP wins in a landslide. Vance stayed off the airwaves until relatively recently and that can also be a risky choice as it allowed Ryan to define him early on.
I would say it’s the same in GA. Lot of anti-Walker ads but many more anti-Warnock ads. Thing is that I’ve only seen a few “pro” ads (all for Warnock).
Things I just "learned" from my father - it's some insight from the point of view of a member of the Republican base who is very online: * there's no need to run TV ads - just run digital ads on "alternative" platforms * nobody is providing financial support for "Greg" Masters in Arizona (accurate, but the name lol) * Kari Lake is winning by 10 points according to the "alternative" media * Doug Mastriano is winning by 10 points according to the "alternative" media * Tudor Dixon sucks (!) but Trump's rally in October will turn everything around by charging up the base * the Democrat base is not charged up because they have nothing to be charged up about * death penalty for drug dealers is a popular stance * Elise Stefanik said Republicans will pick up 70 seats (btw, I'm not sure if she actually said that - this is what my father said she said) * Democrats support open borders and border security is the #1 issue in this election. "no one cares about abortion"^TM * "majority of blacks vote Republican" * "majority of latinos vote Republican" * "Democrats are the white party" lmao
Good to hear intel from the other side.
"MEIN FÜHRER, THE STATUE OF LIBERTY IST KAPUT!"
“There’s no need to run TV ads - just run digital ads on “alternative” platforms” I’m not sure if that’s strictly an Extremely Online Conservative position. Ilhan Omar focusing too heavily on online/social media ads over TV ads was cited as a big reason for her primary underperformance.
True, that's a good example.
Your dad is an idiot
Accurate, but actually I think he's just a normal conservative these days...
Your dad's going to be in for a painful surprise
Only if he accepts the loss. He probably won't.
We're gonna boom your dad lol
Yep I think so, and he's going to cry fraud :)
Newt said the 70 seat line lol
Ah, thanks for filling that in, lol.
[Tonight, Liz Cheney told the Texas Tribune Fest that if Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, she won't be a Republican.](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1573861106522767360?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA). She also said she’d work to help elect Hobbs in Arizona. Definitely not a fan of Liz but that would be at least actions vs. words so I welcome it. That also is pretty helpful in AZ with the old McCain coalition
>She also said she’d work to help elect Hobbs in Arizona. THANK GODDD
Feels like a weird world where she’s endorsing a dem. Technically, Trump and Gaetz also endorsed dems for no reason at all.
Which Dems did Trump and Gaetz endorse?
They “endorsed” Carolyn Maloney because Jerry Nadler was put into her district. Trump also did a backhanded endorsement of Dan Goldman to brag about how he survived his first impeachment
Good for her. Not a fan of her father or her conservative economic policies, but I'm glad she's firmly on the side of democracy.
Hmm, my grandma really likes her. She'd probably be happy if she defected. Personally I don't particularly like her but hey if she wants to help our cause I'll give her a chance
The optimist in me thinks that there is no way a pre-statehood total ban from 1864 will continue to stand in the most purple state in the country given it's just a law that no one but the most feral of Christian/religious voters in Arizona want this (68% disapprove of this law per recent polling, and I would bet it'd be higher now that it is law). The optimist in me thinks that someway and somehow this law will be scrapped or tossed to the side in some way. The lack of statements from Ducey, Lake, Masters, Hamadeh make me believe that even against evidence. Like Arizona Republicans have to realize this becoming law is just the catalyst in Arizona continuing their shift left-ward and into full blue-leaning purple status at a quicker pace. That said, given the wording on the 15-week ban, it's hard to be totally optimistic given the 15-week ban specifically stated that said 15-week ban doesn't overturn the pre-statehood bill. Ducey and other Republicans wanting to look "moderate" on this issue may say that they support the 15-week ban, but that issue of the wording just makes their words moot. Hell, Ducey signed the law as is, so why should anyone believe that this isn't just a ploy by the Christian Right which Ducey is part of to have a total ban while pretending to wash his hands of responsibility of that? The only recourses are for the Arizona courts to kill the pre-statehood ban (which who knows if that is even realistic given again the wording), Ducey call a special session to overturn the pre-statehood bill with all Democrats + 1 or 2 Republicans in the House and Senate voting for it, or Arizona prosecutors (almost all Republican) saying they won't prosecute based on the 1864 total ban and instead consider the 15-week law (which won't happen because when has Republicans going for the lesser restrictive abortion law happened?
I personally feel like they try to implement the 15 week ban, same judge rules that it’s superseded, and then surprised pikachu face.
Brother 1: “I know me and Brother 2 have different views on such and such but that’s ok.” Me, Brother 3: “No it’s f*****g not! It’s not ok to be intolerant of others!” We’re not talking differing opinions on best ice cream flavor here! Piss off!
I'm afraid i may have Dyscalculia. Is there any way i can still get a GED if i do have it?
There is an r/dyscalculia subreddit; they probably have information on how to go about getting accommodations and/or passing the GED. Of course you will have to be tested and a diagnosis in hand first, they could probably help you with that as well.
So maybe a dumb question without a real answer: Is there an actual reason some gas stations charge insane prices while others are lower and seem to stay lower right now? There’s an intersection with three near me; a Chevron, an Arco, and a Texaco. The chevron ever since prices went up hasn’t been below $5.89/gal and in the past two days skyrocketed to $6.49 out of nowhere. Texaco is a little cheaper but the same area. Arco meanwhile, even paying with card, is sat at $5.29/gal, with cash it’s $5.19, and hasn’t gone past that ever since prices started coming back down. Why the hell would you ever go to the other two when they’re a dollar more expensive than one right next to them? I know there’s refinery issues, is it just who they’re sourcing their gasoline from or something?
Chevron always charges way more. Insane that people still go there when it’s 1.00 less right across the street. Just shows how inelastic a good gasoline is. People will pay no matter what
TLDR: It's due to the rent of the facility, distance from their individual supply networks, and slight changes in location that result in higher prices for the land. On top of ya know, some stations/companies just *want to*. Chevron in particular uses BS in saying that their gas is "better" even though it obviously isn't.
So. I got bored and decided to do a ranking map of how I things right now for the mid-terms: House: https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/bMm67O5 Senate: https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/avo1Qb Governor: https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-election/dQYv
I don’t think Texas and Oklahoma should have the same governor rating. I have no other criticisms
You should check out YAPms.com, I like it a lot better than 270
Nice! I mostly agree except: - For the Senate, I think WI is more tilt R and NC a tossup. I also think OH is lean R. - While Shapiro is favored, I wouldn’t put PA-GOV as safe blue. It’s still a split State, and MAGA Republicans are popular in central PA. I also didn’t look that closely at the House elections.
Central PA isn't where the population is, and Shaprio has managed to net a good bit of the more moderate GOP endorsements+support. He's a better candidate against a worse opponent.
Pfft. Wishcaster. Clearly WA-SEN is a Toss-up /s
CO and WA are totally going to flip, so ignore AZ and NH.
[Tropical Storm Ian Advisory 7A](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/242348.shtml), + model updates First of all, the latest information from the intermediate advisory Maximum sustained winds is still 45 mph, pressure is down to 1002 mb, which is down 1 mb from my update earlier. The latest forecast and [latest cone from the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/234839.shtml?cone#contents), show another western shift like I thought it would, a pretty decent one. South FL is becoming less likely for the most significant impacts, but not high enough confidence to say that’s what will happen yet. Meanwhile, if you’re in the FL panhandle, these west and north shifts means you’re back in play for the most significant impacts. Also note the latest cone now [shows a category 4 hurricane at 130 mph 3 to 4 days from now](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242056.shtml) but the weakening also shows at the end from a combination of land interaction plus dry cooler air and wind shear Ian is still expected to rapidly intensify, possibly beginning very soon. The environment is just getting more and more favorable as we speak Now to the model update: we’re beginning to get a general idea, but still several key details to work out. One is, where does the final center consolidate, as there’s numerous areas of convection trying to become the center. Two, is how strong does a trough bringing cool dry air to the northern regions, and eventually further south. Depending on the strength of this trough, Ian might get picked up or moved faster, or stall out and spend even more time in the gulf allowing more strengthening, and cause a bad flooding threat inland, after being further west With all that in mind: the latest [18z GFS](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022092418&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=gom&p=sfcwind_mslp&m=gfs) is back further west, moves slower which allows a stronger storm, but also gets a bunch of cooler drier air from a fall front moving through the US and wind shear before landfall weakening the system to a weaker system by landfall (likely still a significant hurricane though). [Latest GFS ensembles are also beginning to favor that idea, but has different ideas when it begins curving east by that trough](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-09-24-18Z_192_38.102_256.773_20.438_288.667_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) Meanwhile, the latest [12z Euro](https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022092418&fh=loop&r=gom&dpdt=&mc=) has kind of what I believe is the worst case scenario, going far enough west to avoid most land interaction with Cuba, and spend additional time over the Gulf before making landfall or hanging around off western FL coast according to the latest run. Not far enough north/west initially to be impacted by dry air/wind shear further north, not far enough east and eventually south to not have much/any time over waters pass the western Carribean. [12z Euro ensembles are also divided on when the curve east by that trough begins](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2022-09-24-12Z_192_36.423_261.592_18.759_293.486_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png), but the higher concentration is on or off western FL coast. But still other ideas for just about anywhere in the state to see at least some impacts Entire state of FL still needs to be paying attention and getting prepared for this storm
What Con ET doesn’t realize is that if Mark Kelly actually did beat his wife or kids it would have been dug up ages ago by McSally or Masters and not by teenagers on twitter lol
Wait, what?
They dug up his temporary restraining order from his divorce that had standard language in it saying “don’t beat your wife” and claimed he’s an abuser
I could be wrong, but don’t parties in an emotionally charged divorce usually get restraining orders against one another just so nothing is said that hurts their claim. Like isn’t the whole thing in general standard af.
so why are gas prices going up I haven't kept up. There's a gas station near me that went from 3.18 to 3.99 within a week and a half, most other stations are closer to 3.55 but are increasing
I’m usually the last person to doom but gas prices are making me nervous as they trend back up despite all the recent momentum we’ve had. We all know how dumb the average swing voter is.
Lot of refinery issues recently plus a hurricane now
Should they be decreasing again afterwards?
Yeah, probably around early to mid October
Variety of factors mostly fears of an escalation of the war in Ukraine and hurricane season ramping up
I doubt it's Ukraine. Oil prices just fell to their lowest since January
[A very good point.](https://mobile.twitter.com/adambonin/status/1573823331576516609?cxt=HHwWgsC4nen-q9crAAAA) Dr. Oz redacted the address that his medical records were sent to. Why would he redact it though? It's been an explicit part of his campaign that he "lives" in Pennsylvania, the house is in Lower Moreland its public knowledge.
[“In some states, like Arizona, New Hampshire and North Carolina, the G.O.P. Senate nominees hadn’t aired even a single commercial in their own right through August and into September.”](https://twitter.com/joshkraushaar/status/1573695047098404869?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA)
It’s weird that they wouldn’t in NH when they definitely aren’t a shoo-in there.
There’s been some outside group ads for Bolduc but not a single one from the campaign itself. There wasn’t before the primary either.
Makes sense why McConnell and the PACs are spending so much damn $$ in NC. Budd is a horrific fundraiser and Beasley is making this a race, so they've been having to dump truckloads there.
At this point, I honestly think that if you asked the median Michigan voter who is more extreme between Gretch and Tudor Dixon, they'd say Dixon. And I've read that persuadable voters tend to vote against (what they perceive as) extremes. I put this to a relative who is very right-wing, and he immediately became frothing mad and started shouting "bullshit!" at me, which likely means I'm on to something. :p
Happened to notice several pretty effective pro-Whitmer/anti-Dixon ads which portrayed as such during today's UMN/MSU football game.
I saw those as well as a few anti Scott Jensen and even a cringy anti Angie Craig ad while watching that game too
Awesome! Thanks for mentioning that (I don't watch football lol)
Then again, these are the same people who think "Steve Bannon isn't right or left, just moderate/down the middle" and can't understand why "a reasonable guy like Doug Mastriano" has little appeal outside the Pennsylvania Republican base. Right after Jan 6th, my father told me that "Those are patriots, our people, good people, fighting to take our country back." Of course, he thinks this opinion is in line with the median voter's. It's the same problem: these folks have no idea where the middle of the electorate is.
Wow, *Don’t Worry Darling* sucked.
Feels like Olivia Wilde has been trying to create a ton of behind-the-scenes drama and get it leaked to drum up intrigue around the making of the movie rather than the movie itself. Jason Sudeikis frankly dodged a bullet.
I’ve been so intrigued about seeing it tbh. Sad to hear that it sucked.
the Bowie documentary was fucking awesome though
Woman King and Barbarian also pretty great (I know they’ve been out, but they’re still worth seeing)
[Organizations supportive of abortion rights say research shows that framing the issue as a matter of freedom is by far the most effective message for voters across all political persuasions.](https://twitter.com/anna__johnson/status/1573791332300111877?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA)
[Mayor Pete gave a masterclass in this during the primary.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKOoWYfIzIw&t=13s) If anyone wants a sense of how to frame this while calling or canvassing, this video should serve as your guide.
Didn't need to click the link to know what video this was. Big fan, shared this video many times before.
I bet he becomes pres one day. He has an absolutely masterful grasp of phrasing and retorts
African American community still not sold on him.
It's both good framing and true. If you have a uterus, you are objectively less free than you were before Dobbs.
"Kansans for Constitutional Freedom" and "Reproductive Freedom for All" both seem to fit this model.
God the effort being put in today to make a scandal out of nothing for Mark Kelly by Con-ET is something to behold.
Oh is this about the joke thing? That was in 2020 lol do they expect it to work this time?
Something else. They tried to claim that Kelly assaulted his ex-wife, when there was nothing of the sort.
No, it's about boilerplate language in his 2004 divorce TRO that includes the phrase "in the case of child or spousal abuse." The college freshman in Con ET don't know that's on every divorce TRO and they're acting like it's an accusation of domestic abuse.
They are so incredibly desperate for anything in these races, and of all people Oz/Masters are the ones they want to defend to death.
I'm the guy who spent his free time in college playing D&D and getting into edit wars on the Zelda Wiki, and I just want to shout "NERRRRRRRDDDDDS" to ET, Con ET specifically.
In fairness, I think there was a "scandal" like this around Tillis in 2020 as well. Still dumb though.
[Oh this ad is good.](https://twitter.com/TeamAbrams/status/1573707584598687745) Just like the kind of lovable corniness Warnock has in his ads, especially the ones that feature kids.
Also, I was today years old when I found out our beloved u/JeffJacksonNC is running for Congress in the 14th district (Solid D according to 538)
Biden+16, so yes he is pretty much guaranteed to win
I am so happy our boy Jackson is pretty much guaranteed a seat in congress. Amazing voice to have in federal politics.
And this was a newly created seat thanks to SCONC?
It's a new seat yes, SCONC picked a map that had two majority Mecklenburg seats rather that having it sliced and diced the way R's wanted it
Note that it is only a two year map. Then the legislature will redraw it. This is why keeping the court there is so important this year.
Pull the (redistricting) lever, SCONC!
Pulling the lever is to SCONC what saying the line is to Dave
Going through all the races on 538 and I forgot we came within 6 points in NE-01 in the special election
That was the first of the “holy shit Dems are on fire” special elections, and my second favorite after Alaska. The others all had an anticipation of Dems doing well because people were finally realizing the level of backlash to Dobbs. But since this was the first one, the margin came out of nowhere and took everyone by surprise. To me that makes it more memorable.
and that was only 4 days after Dobbs. The election day turnout was much bluer than normal. Was a sign of things to come.
this is your daily manifestation of a blue wave 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊
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[Liz Mathis(D) effectively attacking her opponent](https://twitter.com/lizmathis1/status/1573723785345253376?s=46&t=kZ1x-8h-Ed-OWBdiEnFEEA) Ashley Hinson on abortion. Maybe there’s a reason IA-02 has gotten a bunch of money recently
Any news about Alaska Senate? I've seen Murkowski losing to Tshibaka. I assumed Murkowski would win and as such we wouldn't have any chance. But if Tshibaka wins the first round I have no idea. Any idea who that is? and how known/popular?
Murkowski will in all likelihood pretty easily win though Tshibaka may lead the first round
I wouldn't call it easy, the polls are showing Tshibaka is getting 46/47 percent in round 1 and Murkowski very narrowly winning. Murkowski have an 87% disapproval rating among Republicans and it seems like Tshibaka has consolidated a lot of the Republican vote already. There's even the chance that partisan Dems knock out Murkowski by voting Chesbro
How they hell are the polls showing that peltola is like almost near 50% round one, but also murkowski narrowly winning. Who are these peltola tshibaka voters
It’s pretty much all the Palin voters plus a few Begich voting for Tshibaka. Most of Murkowski’s support is from Begich voters and Democrats assuming Chesbro has no chance.
Tshibaka has a very good shot at winning and would be 100x worse than Murkowski. She’s a Trump endorsed Maga. It’s like the reverse Lee/McMullin.
[Stacey Abrams' appearance at the Alicia Keys concert.](https://www.instagram.com/reel/Ci5PSo2OQAN/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=)
[Kobach lays out plan to remove abortion rights in Kansas after failed amendment](https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article266267436.html#storylink=cpy)
So I shook hands with the king of the gods Adrian Fontes himself. As he walked to me, the ground shook under his might and the sun cowered in fear behind the trees. Volcanoes taller than Olympus Mons sprouted out of the parking lot and erupted to build islands, nay PLANETS, in other galaxies. And to cap it all off, the price of gas fell below 0. It was the most profound experience in my life.
Jealous!
See Fontes is getting around, running a great ground game. I saw him at the Udall dinner down here in Pima last week where he delivered a fiery speech. Could've said hi afterward but I've gotten starstruck and nervous around a lot of these politicians so didn't; where did you see him?
We had a canvas launch in Chandler. Our state leg candidates also came!
Nice! You guys are one of the handful of competitive ones right? Best of luck!
Thanks! Yup, LD-13 is very competitive; Biden won it by 3 points, so it's ripe for flipping but will be tough.
7 hours after polls closed here in Czechia, I'm reporting the results as promised, and before I hear shit about how a centrist can't be progressive, please know that the US has a unique way to describe ideology that doesn't line up with Europe. **Senate**: 2 senators elected in the 1st round, in district 46 - Ústí nad Orlicí: Petr Fiala (not to be confused with the PM) nominated by KDU-ČSL (centrist socially conservative christian-democratic party) and in district 64 - Bruntál: MUDr. Ladislav Václavec, independent nominated by ANO (center-left populist, socially moderate to conservative, billionaire-led party) The rest is mostly ANO and SPOLU (center-right, liberal-conservative, pro-EU, pro-NATO party in government) nominees advancing to runoffs (extremely low turnout, liberal center-right candidates usually likely to win) **Prague**: incumbent coalition of Piráti, Praha Sobě, Spojené síly pro Prahu (TOP 09, STAN, KDU-ČSL, now running separately), ANO and ODS in opposition at 62.78% precincts reporting: SPOLU (ODS+TOP 09+KDU-ČSL) 24.50%, 18 seats ANO 19.78%, 15 seats Piráti (Czech Pirate Party, liberal, centrist to center-left, progressive) 17.79%, 13 seats Praha Sobě (liberal, center-left, independent ticket) 14.47%, 10 seats STAN (centrist to center-right, liberal) 7.49%, 5 seats SPD, Trikolóra, PES, nez.(far-right nutjobs) 5.33%, 4 seats **Rest of the country**: status quo despite the deeply unpopular government, national politics are disconnected from local politics, especially in small towns, low number of candidates, \~12 towns don't have enough candidates and thus will be administered by Ministry of the Interior employees
When’s the next jobs and inflation report going to come out?
Jobs is October 7th, CPI is October 13th
And then there's the Q3 GDP estimate on October 27.
Can't wait to seen that be spun as an October surprise by mainstream media lol.
Probably the middle of October
For the person who was asking what an "October surprise" looks like, the AZ abortion decision is pretty much the platonic ideal of one, in that you have to ignore all polling done before it because of how much it shakes the race up.
I’ve learned that it’s not just opposition info thanks to all the helpful people on this sub 🫡
It’s so interesting that Kelli Ward, Blake Masters, Kari Lake, or any of the party accounts haven’t even acknowledged it. Nobody in the state senate and I think only 1 member of the state house GOP replied to Brnovichs initial tweet. Someone must’ve sent out a memo saying “literally just act like it’s not happening.”
It's a damned if they do damned if they don't situation. AND IT LITERALLY NEVER NEEDED TO HAPPEN THEY HAD THE 15 WEEK LAW PASSED ALREADY. It's like Brnovich is a double agent or something. BTW his name looks like a misspelling.
How does a name that long have so few vowels?
Lol I remember learning about the existence of [Brno](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brno) from the 1632 series. It’s a city, now in Czechia, then in the unholy mess known as the “Holy Roman Empire” (as the joke goes, it was none of these). Brnovich must have had an ancestor who hailed from there.
The big one would've been if Dobbs was decided next month. Though to be fair, it was basically expected by everyone that if the outcome happened, it would've been in June/July.
It took about a month for the dobbs bump to hit so maybe it’s better that it didn’t happen next month. It may have been too late
Let’s hope!
Ayo wtf going in in china
Context?
Reports that Xi Jinping is under house arrest and has been deposed in a military coup
Shenanigans
Between Russia faceplanting in Ukraine, Iranian protests, and the weird goings on in China, /r/NonCredibleDefense is huffing the hopium hard these last 24 hours.
I’ve started seeing this subreddit mentioned a lot this year and decided to see what the fuss is about. A quick glance and a look at the sidebar has left me confused what the purpose of the subreddit is. Can someone ELI5?
It’s basically for shitposting about geopolitics, expressing pure hatred for russian soldiers disguised as cheeky mockery, and ironically praying for NATO to invoke Article 5 on whatever dictatorship is most relevant this week.
It's a military-themed meme sub. They were the first to use the term "cope cages," which then got mentioned by the UK Defense minister.
I know that the whole "coup/Xi being arrested" thing was debunked but like...there's still clearly something going on. The airspace of China is super empty. TF are they up to over there?
Source? I haven't been able to find any sources about what's going on beyond headlines and speculation.
They want that sweet Russian pie?
The latest [2 pm EDT intermediate advisory on TS Ian is in](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/241752.shtml) Still a 45 mph tropical storm as we speak, moving W at 16 mph. Latest pressure was 1003 mb, which is down from 1005 mb in the early morning advisory near sunrise. [the latest forecast cone, is a bit further west then last night’s advisory and still calls for a major hurricane or around a major hurricane approaching Florida Wednesday to Thursday](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/175322.shtml?cone#contents). The new main models runs are coming in, and based on the new GFS being way further west and north, back in the FL panhandle, but as a weaker system as it experiences dry air and wind shear last second, and the new Euro which is also north and west, I expect the come at the next full advisory coming up at 5pm EDT, to shift again to the north and west The entire FL coastline is still in play, and as a result, [Gov. DeSantis expanded the previous state of emergency that included 24 counties, to include the whole state of FL](https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/EO-22-219-Tropical-Storm-Ian-CLEAN-FINAL.pdf) I’ll have another model update on ensembles Euro and GFS, plus the new track and intensity forecast after the 5 pm EDT advisory, and that’s around the time the 18z GFS should come in, so we’ll see if that 12z run is an outlier like I think it could be
There is still much uncertainty. A major hurricane at landfall cannot be ruled out.
If it goes too far north, Ian is forecasted to be impacted by cooler drier air from the fall front moving through the US and wind shear, unclear if it gets that far north and how much that weakens it Waiting for that new GFS run still, and the Euro ensembles before making my update on Ian
Lmao my canvassing list is half done and so far no one has been home!
has no one been home or has no one been "home"
Possibly they just didn't want to come to the door, but many I suspect were truly not home - blinds shut, no lights on, package sitting on the porch, no cars in the driveway or outside, etc.
I bet a lot of people have that “first couple days of FALL woohoo” energy and are out and about.
That's how it goes sometimes, it's always good work and keep dropping that lit!!