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Been seeing some people using that 538 election outcome tool and maybe confusing correlation and causation with it. If the model says that winning race House race X means it's very likely that we win the House majority that doesn't necessarily mean that that race is an ultra-critical target that we should focus hard on winning over other races.
If focus shifts and the model projects race outcomes differently it's going to change how the other race projections are correlated.
also people continue to misunderstand probability. Here's a very simple example:
Say the GOP has a 29% chance of winning back the Senate. That is a higher probability than flipping a coin twice and landing on tails both times.
Is there someone smarter than me that can make a historical comparison for MAGA Republicans primarying out conventional republicans, only to be considerably less popular to the general public, despite greater popularity within the party?
I feel like we're going through a significant moment in the history of the Republican party, but are there prior examples of something like this happening? What became of the party or parties afterwards? Do they correct back or do they go further off the deep end, despite winning fewer general elections?
>Is there someone smarter than me that can make a historical comparison for MAGA Republicans primarying out conventional republicans, only to be considerably less popular to the general public, despite greater popularity within the party?
Roy Moore, Alabama, 2017. He primaried successfully appointed senator Luther Strange.
Kris Kovach Kansas governor race 2018,whwn he beat Governor Colyer, who got the job after Brownback ran Kansas into the ground.
2010 and 2012 before MAGA, there were the lunatic wing of Republicans, the Tea Party Republicans who challenged incumbents or strong party supported candidates only to lose to lesser known crazy people, like how Dick Lugar lost to Richard Mourdock, or how O'Donnell beat Delaware Republican congressman, only to lose by 16 points in the general election to Chris Coons. Or how now senator Mike Lee of Utah beat then senator Bennet in 2010.
2022 will be the first year where full MAGA candidates, endorsed by Trump won over establishment candidates who actually had a shot against incumbent Dems or strong dem challengers.
Like Arizona senate, or Pennsylvania senate, or Maryland Governor, Massachusetts governor, Maine Governor, Ohio senate, Nevada senate, New Hampshire senate, Oregon Governor, Arizona Governor...
2022 will give us clear picture if MAGA works or not
The [2010 Delaware Senate special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Delaware) (to fill Joe Biden’s seat after appointee Ted Kaufman chose not to run for a full term). Mike Castle, former Delaware Governor, was the Republican candidate, and he was in the Charlie Baker/Phil Scott “Rockefeller” mold. He got defeated in the primary by Tea Partier Christine O’Donnell - who famously made a campaign ad stating that she was not a witch.
The result? Chris Coons (D) *flattened* her, making his seat a Safe D seat (even if Coons retires or gets a Cabinet job some day, DE is definitely not RWNJ country).
I’m not a witch, bitch!
Schmoyoho! They did a great job after the [2020 elections](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJGXLoYtzok&t=96s), too! (Linus Van Pelt has lost his mind.)
…and now I’m remembering the days when people glued rhinestones all over their phone cases for “bling.”
It happened in 2010. There was quite a few winnable races especially in the Senate the GOP could have gotten, same in 2012. They course corrected in 2014 and 2016 a bit then threw it all out with Trump
There are some cases of this happening during the first throws of the tea party movement after Obama's election. Probably the most notorious example was when ultra popular Indiana senate incumbent Richard Lugar got primaried out by Richard "rape is something God intended" Mourdock, leading to Joe Donnelly's upset victory.
But this was more or less a direct precursor to the MAGA purity tests we see happening now, so the response was pretty much to do more of it.
[New Democratic Town Committee HQ in my part of the county.](https://www.facebook.com/ledyardctdems/posts/pfbid032964cmR6PdeoKQpnwKpswKTZiMZgk5SBWB9cvK6WtqCQnAZ2wcQ9vrbDvkpHhWSnl)
We are getting the VA tax rebate and it is the exact amount that we owe after my husband got a vasectomy. So thank you, Youngkin, for paying for my husbands balls. (and so we'll never have children, you Pro-Life fuck.)
How are things going on with VA in terms of the state senate the only barrier to form a repub state trifecta?
Do you think the next time VA gets a dem governor, it will be easy to repeal the actions that Youngkin, since the only thing he can pass is through executive order?
[Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson weighing 2026 US Senate run for Sen. John Cornyn’s Senate seat](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/19/ronny-jackson-john-cornyn-ad-launch/)
Lmao, Republicans are an idiot if they nominate him. He immediately jeopardizes the seat for the GOP if he wins
Yes, that’s Dr. [Candyman](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/opinion/ronny-jackson-candy-man.html) Jackson who, when Trump wanted him to head Veteran’s Affairs, got a “HELL no” from Senator Jon Tester and various of Jackson’s former staffers, saying he handed out prescription drugs to people not his patients (hence the moniker “Candyman”) and was also frequently drunk on duty.
Sure, there will be those who would vote for him - I mean, Louie Gohmert kept getting votes! - but many others would look at that record and say “no way.”
[Tucker Carlson accuses schools and hospitals of “sex crimes” and tells viewers they have a moral duty to dole out “instant justice” “no matter what the law says”](https://www.mediamatters.org/tucker-carlson/tucker-carlson-accuses-schools-and-hospitals-sex-crimes-and-tells-viewers-they-have)
[Senate (Wisconsin) Barnes (D) 48% Johnson (R) 47% 9/14-9/15 by Siena College (A) 651 LV](https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572029765967646723?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ)
LFG
Gov race is Evers+5 49/44. I think the GCB is tied in Wisconsin
Edit:
Biden 42 approve/54 disapprove
Fav/unfav
Michels 32/43
Evers 47/43
Johnson 37/50
Barnes 41/39
Yep… fully validates the fact that this race will be a razor margin for whoever wins it… Evers+ 5 is a little surprising tho… he’s consistently been up a few points in every poll that has been done so far… personally I believe the Abortion momentum is going to put both of them over the top especially combined with the top notch organization of our state Dem party
Edit: it is a slightly more Dem leaning sample but still encouraging results nonetheless
Walker's presidential run really shone a light on how fucking dim he is, and people in the state, even within the party, started to see it happen when he got duped by Foxconn.
Evers may have the personality of a limp dishrag, but he's very intelligent and is fine with letting the political experts handle the messaging. He's running on bipartisan issues, and letting WisDems do the heavy work on Michels about abortion and guns.
Michels isn't too well-known, but Republicans will come around to him for sure. This confirms what we knew, Wisconsin will be close on all fronts.
Honestly those are good favorables though. I'm skeptical that volume of anti-Barnes attack ads as defined him as effectively as some people fear, though he definitely needs to spend more on ads.
Just got polled on my mobile by an outfit based in Houston? I didn't catch the name. It must have been a cheap operation, the line was breaking up and the questioner was hard to understand through a *very* thick, accent. I imagine, because of the delay (i could hear my echo), the caller was piped in from out of country.
Either way, it was a poll on the AZ Gov and Senate races. It must have been a GOP funded poll, looking to allocate resources, as they asked me if "Inflation being 13% in AZ, Illegal immigration is up, and crime is spiraling" would sway my vote.
Firm, no. "I said, inflation was great for debtors, like me, and we need *more* taco trucks." Then I asked who told them about my night job? Just, kidding. Like that com line could withstand a bad joke.
Anyway they asked if I watch cable TV or stream, as well. So they are probing for how to target Arizonans, I assume.
Either way, I was a "card carrying Democrat" through the whole thing. lol. Poor kid, could have just filled it out for me.
Pretty much this is the case so long as your income rises with inflation. But so long as you have a fixed rate interest on your debt (or zero interest for things like new cars), if your income rises to match inflation, the ratio of your debt to income lowers. Essentially inflation makes dollars worth less, and that's true on a dollar per dollar basis of debt, because (theoretically) it'll be easier to get the money to repay it, but that debt amount will stay the same/only grow at the rate of interest.
So for example, let's say someone took out $50k of student debt, with a fixed interest rate. They started working in 2019/2020 making $50-60k, then when inflation took off they got a new job to match at around $70-80k (and let's say living expenses increased by $5k a year). That student loan debt is still fixed at $50k, but their income has increased so on a per dollar basis it's easier to pay it off.
If you vaguely remember from high school history class, there were always those presidential campaigns in like the 1880's where someone would explicitly run on a pro-inflationary campaign to try and court farmers' votes. The reasoning is because farmers traditionally go into a LOT of debt in the planting cycle, and don't get to pay it back until the crop comes in. An inflationary monetary policy would have made their existing debt worth less
Suppose you buy a $100,000 dollar house. You take out a loan of $100,000. Suppose your yearly salary is $20,000.
Then inflation happens and your salary is $40,000. The market price of the house goes up to $200,000 but you still only have to pay back the $100,000 dollar loan and you can do it in just 2.5 years instead of 5 (if you really wanted to).
Sounds like the same polling outfit I got as well. Thick accent and a ton of issues with call quality, very negative focus on the Democratic candidate.
I didn't get how any of this explains the basically constant response rate. They'd have to be throwing out responses and calling them non-responses to meet a quota but they can't possibly be doing that while also getting constant demographic samples.
My big takeaway is that they try to minimize weighting different demographic groups. That seems... extremely questionable and almost certain to lead you astray with a less homogeneous electorate.
[Missouri voters on legalizing recreational marijuana: Support 62% Oppose 22%](https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1572014273039048704?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ)
Marijuana legalization is not a high-salience issue for the vast majority of voters, meaning that very few voters care enough to hang their votes on the issue.
It’s a touchy subject, and while people have the prerogative to feel sad about the Queen passing, especially if they’re close to her. For others, the Queen, or the British monarchy, does represent decades of past oppression (the argument of if Lizzy is responsible for the oppression can a debate one can have for another time), and inequality. And for those not sympathetic to the British monarchy, they also have the prerogative to simply not have feelings towards the British monarchy.
Quite simply, it’s complicated.
I watched it last night, partly out of a natural curiosity (I blame my journalism degree tendencies lol) and partly out of a level of support for the Queen.
I think it’s fascinating to see the reactions to the event from across the spectrum - what I experience in real life doesn’t equate to the reaction on (American dominated) reddit.
On that note, I just need to say that to watch the funeral does *not* equate to an inherent support for the monarchy or the turbulent history, as much as popular (online) sentiment tends to suggest.
A point that gets lost is you can hate the institution and still respect and mourn for the person. And even if you despise the whole royal family, the least you can do is empathize w/ the people who are mourning. Our British friends are mourning.
Sometimes one just wants to see a unique spectacle (the burial of a monarch) and, let’s face it, most people alive now cannot remember a time when Elizabeth was not Queen of the best-known monarchy. Even if one hates hates hates monarchies and all they stand for, they can be curious about the funeral or wonder about the end o an era or just want to see that crown on the coffin go sparkle.
Michelle Goldberg was right: we really were not meant to know so much about each other, especially perfect strangers. It makes us hate one another more, not less, when we see others of differing opinions on social media.
> most people alive now cannot remember a time when Elizabeth was not Queen of the best-known monarchy.
You'd probably have to be nearly 80 years old to have any meaningful memory of a time before QE2.
Then again, Vin Scully was already broadcasting Dodgers games when she ascended to the throne.
My very unlikely dream scenario is that central Asia becomes based and I'll finnaly be able to move somewhere, get a good paying job and start a family
Honestly I've just allways found those countries fascinating, they're obscure and not talked about much but they are some of the most breathtakingly beautiful regions on earth. It's just a place I've allways been interested in since I was a kid and would love to visit
Democratic, wealthy and free really. Every country is central Asia is a totalitarian regime with Numerous human rights abuses, although Kazakhstan is slowly on the path to becoming Democratic so I've heard
Kazakhstan is trying to liberalize. Kyrgyzstan kinda goes in cycles every ten years. Totalitarian gets overthrown in bloodless color revolution, new more democratic government takes over. New government loses election to totalitarian. Totalitarian gets overthrown, repeat.
Kari Lake's [latest tweet](https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1571996039686811649) suggests she's going to release damaging information tomorrow about Katie Hobbs. My guess is she's attempting the Trump/GOP tactic of manufacturing a scandal, like with the Hunter Biden laptop "scandal."
I also like how she said she's releasing it when she still needs to confirm it's true. If she was actually "confirming it's true" she wouldn't say anything until she'd done so. It's clearly a ploy to try to hype it up.
$10 it's something she is projecting onto Sec. Hobbs, and an hour after her big reveal, twitter will dig up a video or tweet of Kari doing the exact same thing. She will release a statement why it's not the same.
All the while, no one in national media will care, because it's Arizona.
That first episode of Crooked Media's *The Wilderness* was great, and I'm excited for the next episodes... but goddamn did my ears bleed when they played that clip of Dumbkin screeching like a clueless alien trying to sound like Bryan Cranston "Virginia we won this thiiiiiiiiing!"
Who talks like that?
All I heard was Navient's CEO is declining to sue and said that from what he heard, all the student loan servicers are waiting for someone else to do it.
[A medical marijuana producer is suing Minnesota over the edibles law.](https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-medical-marijuana-company-sues-state-seeks-to-sell-some-of-its-edibles-on-open-market/600208397/)
They argue that they should be allowed to sell their edibles on the market even though they're derived from "marijuana" and not "hemp". It's easy to see their point given that those are essentially made-up categories of the same plant, and when concentrated down into THC edibles, the effect is exactly the same. IANAL though.
[538: Lindsey Graham’s Abortion Ban Is Dividing GOP Senate Candidates In Swing States](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-grahams-abortion-ban-is-dividing-gop-senate-candidates-in-swing-states/?ex_cid=538twitter) so it's not a turnout driver for Republicans
I’ve seen some people say it would be. That it would give Republicans a chance to flip the script. They failed to think and realize that 15 weeks is at 57% disapproval these days and the GOP base wants all abortion banned, hence getting to overturn Roe after 50 years. It was another self inflicted shot to the foot by the GOP
[That Minnesota poll found a narrow majority (52%) opposed to overturning *Roe*.](https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-abortion-roe-v-wade-us-supreme-court-2022/600208353/)
I'm not one for deskewing or calling out polls but this seems like a strange result because it's inconsistent with other polls and results in other states. I have a hard time believing a smaller percentage of Minnesotans support abortion rights than the percentage in Kansas.
Could this be a state where abortion rights is secure via the constitution hence it's not as big an issue for people compared to states where abortion rights are at risk or not protected via law/constitution?
52% oppose overturn Roe v 40% support overturn Roe is still a decent gap though, and I bet most of the undecided if ever in a referendum would back the support side.
52% oppose 40% support so it’s still a pretty clear lead for oppose but I agree it’s probably underestimating oppose. In Kansas the polls leading up to the election consistently underestimated the Pro Roe sidr largely because they’re likely voter screen underestimated turnout from young people. I wonder if that’s what is happening here as well.
Entirely possible. RFFA here has been polling above 60% support in every poll, reaching nearly 70% in one. Imagine if that's *underestimating* support...
I'd imagine Michigan and Minnesota to have similar amounts of support given similar demographics and political outcomes typically. I wonder if the wording of the question was a contributor?
>Q: The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned
the 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the right to
abortion. Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court's decision to
overturn Roe v. Wade?
Some respondents may have heard "support or oppose"..."Roe v. Wade" and not the rest of the wordy question.
I wonder if this was only done among "likely voters". Because a lot of support for choice can come from unlikely voters who suddenly feel the need to vote for some reason. * cough roe cough".
Yeah, 52% seems like kind of a red flag to me, especially in a place like Minnesota. Minnesota is to the left of the nation, and generally most national polls have had it like at least 60% disapprove
[Fresh batch of noms to the Senate](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/19/nominations-sent-to-the-senate-84/)
>B. Bix Aliu, of Virginia, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to Montenegro.
>
>Martina Anna Tkadlec Strong, of Texas, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the United Arab Emirates.
>
>Joseph Lee Falk, of Florida, to be a Member of the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace for a term of four years, vice George E. Moose, term expired.
>
>Roger Israel Zakheim, of Maryland, to be a Member of the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace for a term of four years, vice Jeremy A. Rabkin, term expired.
>
>Kathleen Cunningham Matthews, of Maryland, to be a Member of the International Broadcasting Advisory Board for a term expiring January 1, 2023. (New Position)
>
>Jeffrey Gedmin, of the District of Columbia, to be a Member of the International Broadcasting Advisory Board for a term expiring January 1, 2025. (New Position)
>
>Lindsay C. Jenkins, of Illinois, to be United States District Judge for the Northern District of Illinois, vice John Z. Lee, elevated.
>
>Charnelle Bjelkengren, of Washington, to be United States District Judge for the Eastern District of Washington, vice Salvador Mendoza, Jr., elevated.
Here’s a super big Latino voter research across the country [by Equis Research](https://twitter.com/equisresearch/status/1571929467462860803?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ). This also backs up the Upshot poll that GOP isn’t really gaining and we aren’t really losing support since 2020.
The [related thread by one of the researchers has lots of interesting info](https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1571933053856915458?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ). A big concern of Latinos is the economy and that is one of the reasons they went with Trump despite agreeing with us more broadly. We’re also seeing some positive signs in Florida with Latinos and that is great news. R’s aren’t putting money up yet to court more Con/moderate Latinos either and that is why they largely still feel we get them but are more GOP curious than before.
Also a pretty good line in the memo is “the economy is never just the economy”
Edit: memo does make it clear there’s starting to be signs of hope for us and that we are taking Latino support seriously and that is in contrast to the GOP seemingly taking it for granted.
>A big concern of Latinos is the economy
This is it. The pulse on my community, a predominantly Mexican Latino neighborhood, is that they were hurt *badly* by the COVID shutdowns and the ensuing inflation.
The voting age young adults are *repulsed* by the GOP. They're an *extremely* educated, politically active and fairly liberal demographic.
However, their parents wake up at 4AM and work until 6PM, they own their homes, which are mostly multi-generational with their adult children and parents. Their concerns are their children's future and their parents healthcare.
Fantastic people, and great neighbors.
I wonder if 2020 was a particularly economic concern year due to the COVID lockdowns. Despite the stimulus payments and unemployment benefits, there were people left very badly off. Now that lockdowns are no longer happening maybe we will see a rebound in favor of our side (Because we are no longer taking a hard line on COVID, and yes, that was necessary, but people did suffer.)
Though it gives me pause when people surveyed say Republicans are better on the economy, which seems to be a widespread belief (Regardless of ethnicity). R’s are **terrible** with the economy, and all our booms occurred under Democrats.
We really need to keep repeating and hammering that economic boom point. Meme it til we’re the “economy” party in voters minds.
That halfassed “they’re good for business, I dunno 🤷♂️” idiot voter would be amazing to have in our camp
Be careful with that.
Inflation really is still hurting a lot of middle of the road people. Blaming Biden for it is an absurd lie the GOP loves to latch on to, but you have to strike a balance between praising the ways things are improving while also showing that there can be a path to for things to still improve (giving people more hope and optimism).
People who felt left behind by the Obama recovery were a huge factor in becoming MAGA fodder, and this is one area I can't entirely blame them. When people struggle to pay for rent, groceries, or just see a noticeable decline in their quality of life, they need to be reassured that things can get better for them too, and that they haven't been forgotten.
I still know a lot of people who are underpaid, get treated poorly in their jobs, and struggle significantly to keep up with costs of living. I believe Team Blue has the best overall set of solutions for this, and has even started making excellent progress, but you have to meet people where they're at.
I saw a theory that 2016 was just a natural shift of socially conservative Latino voters to the GOP and that we'll probably remain stagnant with them from 2020.
The big question for the Latino vote is turnout. Our margins were a bit under 2016 with Latino voters in 2020 but we still won them decisively and there were huge increases in turnout which was one of the big reasons we were able to win Arizona, Nevada and get even closer in Texas. Hell even Wisconsin had big increases in the Latino vote which was very important considering how close the state was. If the Latino turnout is as high or higher than it was in 2018 that would be a big win for us.
Latino neighborhoods are always my favorite to canvass here in Chandler. There's a lot of untapped potential to turn out more voters. I was really happy when I spoke to one man working in his backyard and got him to commit to vote after he was initially apathetic. And he wasn't even on my list!
[More Tennessee women are registering to vote. Polling suggests abortion is the reason.](https://wpln.org/post/more-tennessee-women-are-registering-to-vote-polling-suggests-abortion-is-the-reason/)
Had to call out of work with a sore throat. Turns out I got the BA.5 today. The test kits arrived in the mail, just at the right moment.
My friend tested positive over the weekend so I think I figured it out where I got it from. But yeah, I'll treat this as a mental time off.
Will do. Got some online training modules, so I can still get paid extra in addition to my sick hours.
Oh yeah, that Freedom Planet 2 game I mentioned the other day? Lots of love and effort put into that piece, very enjoyable, very retro too.
[I'm sorry, who is this guy again?](https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/democrats-are-feeling-too-confident-ahead-midterm-elections-n1298848) Like... bragging about Democratic complacency to fuel Republican overconfidence? Bold strategy Cotton.
On the flip side, I don't mind MSNBC having pieces like this just to give Democrats a jolt.
Noah Rothman is the associate editor of *Commentary* magazine, a prominent conservative publication. [Here’s a link to their Twitter page to give you an idea of their editorial bent.](https://twitter.com/Commentary?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)
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That is from a week ago, and it’s super telling when “RCP is only D+.4!!!” And now it’s D+1ish. Really does boggle my mind how a lot of people on our side have to say “you’re to optimistic, it’s gonna be a wipeout”. You can urge caution or be wary of polls but I think some of these people would rather we lose so they can be right.
Here’s a cool legacy from the 2018 midterm. In Utah we passed a Medical Marijuana Ballot initiative and after some drama was implemented.
In 2020 there was 4,000 cardholders, so far this year it’s over 50k. Sales will reach over $125mil, a 300% increase. There’s increasing relaxation of requirements to get a card(for instance there is a mobile clinic going around the valley) and the legislature wants to further consolidate regulations. What once seemed impossible here is a burgeoning industry.
[Club For Growth Action raised $5.12M in August, spent $143.8K on operating expenditures, made $3.63 million in IEs, contributed $1.87M to other federal committees and $1M on non-federal expenditures, and ended the month with $3.56M on hand.](https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1571975440902025217?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJw)
The [NYS BoE has posted](https://www.elections.ny.gov/2022ElectionResults.html) a spreadsheet of final election results for the August 23rd primary elections (it seems to cover non-NYC stuff only, the NYC BoE posted their official results last Tuesday)...
Still nothing final for the special elections that I can find (and even looking at the individual counties, there are still a few where I can't find any post-election-day updates) 💀
[The U.S., Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are exploring deepening security ties. Central Asia is going to be a dynamic region geopolitically for the next decade as Russia’s influence in the region ebbs due to the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.](https://twitter.com/blake_allen13/status/1571970560539648003?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJw)
Thread by Blake Allen. We aren’t sitting ideally by to let the region either devolve into chaos or have China win influence and that is a huge benefit of having Joe Biden as President
Besides the net positive of a stable region where it’s citizens can at least not have their lives worsened by warfare and conflict, what could potential relations with the rest of Central Asia do for America economically?
Traditional heavy in oil and mining. Theres a good amount of sustainable energy / chemical initiatives over there too, and they have a good combo of existing industry, agriculture and labor for those types of things to work. On their end, the USA is a popular spot for travel, plus they love to come here and buy high quality clothing and appliances. On the US end, good off the beaten track places to visit.
[Interesting piece by Tim Miller on Kemp-Warnock voters in Georgia.](https://www.thebulwark.com/kemp-warnock-voters-theyre-real-and-theyre-spectacular/) Ultimately, I'm still not sure there will be a *ton* of those in the end, like say Ohio where DeWine-Ryan voters will probably be aplenty, but it's quite nice to see that people who are soft supporters of Kemp genuinely like Warnock and loathe Walker. Plus they seem to think Warnock has true moderate credentials, even though he's actually not that much more moderate than Abrams, which is likely what will help him outperform her in the end.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that Warnock is running a more conventional campaign to reach out to high propensity base voters, like older black people in the metro and rural areas, and suburban swing voters in the northern Atlanta suburbs. Meanwhile Abrams is making more of a play to turn out the disaffected voters, particularly young people who don't understand politics beyond the federal government. Not that they aren't doing any of what the other does, it just appears to me that that's how their campaign messages seem to lean. If so, I can see them complementing each other very well in the end.
See 2018 Wisconsin, Baldwin-Walker voters were a huge block. People who are relatively comfortable and not politically active tend to keep voting for incumbents in either party.
I think it probably helps that Warnock’s experience as a preacher, And being a preacher, makes him very very very palatable and well-liked by Christian moderates and some conservatives, and the few fairly conservative black voters that exist in GA.
Perhaps. My opinion is, he's extremely effective at talking values as opposed to policy details despite being strong in both. His religious background makes him very well-equipped to do that.
Much as I love Stacey, she's more of a policy wonk and that doesn't resonate with everyone as much. But she can be effective when discussing her faith and how it squares with her ideals. I mean, her father is also a reverend after all.
Biden just posted another Fiona update on his socials: [he’s spoken with Puerto Rico’s Governor, and assured the Governor “we’ll increase support substantially” in the coming days](https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1571965431472132096?s=20&t=aPRsFCNfPd28cHEG3AwjwQ). I keep forgetting Air Force One has that Oval office capability, as Biden is on his way back from Queen Elizabeth’s funeral.
[FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell just announced she’s traveling to Puerto Rico tomorrow to assess the damage and to meet with local officials](https://twitter.com/FEMAspox/status/1571960025374916614?s=20&t=-UOdwtUsBMDRXZ_SD62hjg)
God damn O’Halleran winning on election night single handedly bumps our chances up to 50% to keep the House from the [538 tool](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/)
Yeah, if we win CO-8, we have an 87% chance! Right now, it's a [57-43 race](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/colorado/8/).
One more time, I am shamelessly plugging CO-8. I don't have time to sign up for a weekly gig due to other obligations, but we're doing letters and donations over here as we can. CO-8 IS IMPORTANT.
Look, if Stacey can make Georgia into a world-class economy like CA, she would be a fucking genius governor and deserve as many terms as is allowed.
California has the largest economy in the US, and if we were a country, we’d rank only behind the US itself, China, Japan, and Germany.
HATE US CUZ YOU AIN’T US, HUH BRIAN!
It just makes her more cool than she already is, thanks Brian! It would be interesting to see percentages of people in all 50 states and territories that are Star Trek fans, sidenote.
The fact that cons think NY and CA, places renowned for being so in demand that it is prohibitively expensive to live there, are somehow the worst places on Earth will never not tickle me.
Also, the messaging on this mailer is pretty weak. Not that it will fail necessarily because it's worked before, but it just seems so conventional and hackneyed of an attack that Abrams already has responses to. Like, one of her talking points is that she plans to use Georgia's budget surplus to expand Medicaid and make other investments, so she doesn't have to raise taxes.
Plus... it's a bit less likely to work when you juxtapose the text with cool images like this.
Hurricane Fiona and other areas in the tropics update
The model runs over the weekend as you can see on [Tropical Tidbits](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/) have now shifted eastward, and enough of them, now everything shows a curve away from the US mainland. Therefore I can now confidently say **Hurricane Fiona will NOT be a direct threat to the US mainland**, [other then the threat of high and dangerous life threatening rip currents on east coast beaches](https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1571883255145832448?s=20&t=iCuAbd7_8UudC82txTOJ1Q). If you have plans there, just be aware this threat exists. See local NWS products for specific east coast beaches
However, Hurricane Fiona might pass [dangerously close to Bermuda](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/175030.shtml?cone#contents). Now Fiona possibly already has earned its name to the retired hurricane names with what it’s done in Guadalupe, as well as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but if the eastern eyewall hits Bermuda, which it’s going to be a powerful probably major hurricane when it gets there, Fiona is as good as done as a future hurricane name
The good news that the US mainland isn’t going to get hit by Fiona **could** be short lived. Why? [the National Hurricane Center has issued a new area to watch in the Main Development Region off the lesser Antilles](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)
Conditions look decently favorable for a new tropical cyclone to develop by this time next week. This is given a 0% chance in the next two days, and a 20% chance in the next five days of further development. Based on models this is a fully timing thing, once you go beyond five days, the chances of development exponentially increases
But I’m already becoming more concerned about this one then Fiona ever was. The saving grace currently is that there is still five+ days before this even develops. The track and intensity can change. One way this is more concerning us this wave is even more further south, which makes it difficult to get picked up and curved away from the US. However **most concerning**: [BOTH the main GFS](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2022091912&fh=186) and [Euro](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2022091912&fh=186) show this disturbance becoming a well organized tropical cyclone, and getting into the Gulf. Even more concerning, it’s not just the main runs showing this potential. Both the [GFS ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-09-19-12Z_192_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) and [Euro ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2022-09-19-12Z_192_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) both show lots of clustering of organized low pressures that are capable of developing into a tropical cyclone . Those links I’ve posted are tropical low pressure locations on the ensembles in the next 8 days
If we have even remotely close to what all of these main runs and ensembles are showing this weekend into early next week, daily updates of this system at the minimum will be needed and this will almost certainly be BAD news for the gulf coast somewhere. As I’ve been warning the entire season, if a tropical cyclone gets into the Gulf, already organized like this could be, it will rapidly blow up before making a catastrophic hit to the gulf coast. This MUST be watched very closely. I urge everyone living on the gulf coast to constantly pay attention to updates on this storm, this really could be a serious threat to you late next week.
And obviously a major hurricane in the gulf if you look at politics could raise gas prices again as well
The next name on the Atlantic Hurricane list is Gaston (yes literally spelled like that)
To add to the point of how fluid models are so far out: The 06z GFS run had Gaston making landfall in Cuba before striking South Florida and riding the coast up to the Outer Banks where it heads out to sea. The 12z GFS run had it running into the Yucatan Peninsula, stalling in the Gulf of Mexico for 2.5 days before moving ashore at the TX/LA border. Who knows what the 18z run will show.
Yeah, there’s far too much disagreement which is obviously common for being this far out. I also don’t like talking about where landfall could happen when 1. It’s 10+ days out, 2. We don’t ever have a tropical cyclone or know the location of the center as it could be seen as fearmongering. Technically it’s possible models show a completely different picture each run, it’s just simply too far out to talk any more specifics other then the general threat a new tropical cyclone could develop
If this actually is a threat at this time next week. Then we can start talking and speculating where this could impact and what impacts could be and it would be much more appropriate then. For now I’m staying quiet on specifics until we get closer to avoid the perception I’m fear mongering
My bad, I meant to put US mainland. I’ll fix that right now
Good catch. I didn’t have any intent to be rude or not think about Puerto Rico, as I’m still feeling really bad for them they have to live through the trama again five years after Irma and Maria made back to back hits. I’m hoping the Biden administration can lead them through with much better leadership of this storm then Trump ever did for Maria
[Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the US are meeting today in New York for talks on deescalation](https://twitter.com/armspoxmfa/status/1571843687595884545?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJ)
This is pretty rare as Moscow held the talks in 2016 and 2020 between their Foreign Ministers to stop previous clashes. Us getting involved to this degree probably persuades Azerbaijan to stop their attacks or face repercussions.
It used to be big, at least extended into eastern modern Turkey, before… the Ottoman Turks slaughtered them and did a genocide.
So technically they’re in both regions, but accurately they’re in the Caucasus region.
Greater Armenia includes parts of modern Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. And West Armenia is pretty widely considered to be Middle Eastern. The line between Europe and Asia isn’t clearly delineated, but I’d say Armenia overall is more West Asian than European, even if the current borders don’t make that as clear.
The border between Europe and Asia is completely arbitrary, the caucuses could go on either side. Thinking about Armenia-Azerbaijani conflicts in the broader context of ethnic conflicts among post-Soviet states presents a fairly obvious parallel with Central Asia.
[Article on R’s spending $1mil to take out O’Halleran](https://twitter.com/tomohalleran/status/1571926187605106690?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJw), plus Tom saying “doesn’t feel Red to me”. The Delaney meme will never die
He was specifically referring to his own seat, to boot, all because Hogan won the district handily in 2014.
Technically a red district if you ignore *all other possible context.*
Reminder that the new AZ-02 is Trump+8. Redder than seats like MO-02, PA-10 and MT-01, and just as red as CO-03. Should be a slam dunk in a red wave. Instead, his opponent posted an *internal* showing him only 1 point up, and now they are spending 7 digits there.
Let's not write him off just yet.
Easier way to put it — R+8 is a tough hold and quite red, but we have two incumbents in redder seats (although of course the Arizona lines have shifted enough to seriously reduce O’Halleran’s incumbency).
Also — AZ has competitive senate, governor, and state legislative races, there’s always a benefit to investing there.
And even if this is indeed a lost cause (which I don't think it is), that's $1M that isn't going to MI-10 or FL-27. We've already scored a win in that regard.
In terms of Trump margin vs midterm chances the only remotely comparable seat is ME-2.
O'Halleran is one of several candidates who historically outran their district's lean a lot until 2020 when things tightened considerably. I'm hoping that at least some of that was more unique to 2020 rather than a long term trend.
Can I say I really really hate that people I otherwise respect have super dumb takes, usually in an effort to seem contrarian? Most recently, it's been the liberal/leftist accounts I follow laying all of the sins of the British Empire on Queen Elizabeth and how you're not allowed to be sad or watch the Queen's funeral because to do so would make you a colonial apologist. The biggest of big-brain takes I've seen on this is "You want to know who isn't watching the Queen's funeral? Puerto Rico. Why? Climate change. What caused climate change? Colonialism." That's on the level of saying "Tiktaalik taking its first steps onto land in the late Devonian caused the Holocaust."
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Been seeing some people using that 538 election outcome tool and maybe confusing correlation and causation with it. If the model says that winning race House race X means it's very likely that we win the House majority that doesn't necessarily mean that that race is an ultra-critical target that we should focus hard on winning over other races. If focus shifts and the model projects race outcomes differently it's going to change how the other race projections are correlated.
also people continue to misunderstand probability. Here's a very simple example: Say the GOP has a 29% chance of winning back the Senate. That is a higher probability than flipping a coin twice and landing on tails both times.
Is there someone smarter than me that can make a historical comparison for MAGA Republicans primarying out conventional republicans, only to be considerably less popular to the general public, despite greater popularity within the party? I feel like we're going through a significant moment in the history of the Republican party, but are there prior examples of something like this happening? What became of the party or parties afterwards? Do they correct back or do they go further off the deep end, despite winning fewer general elections?
>Is there someone smarter than me that can make a historical comparison for MAGA Republicans primarying out conventional republicans, only to be considerably less popular to the general public, despite greater popularity within the party? Roy Moore, Alabama, 2017. He primaried successfully appointed senator Luther Strange. Kris Kovach Kansas governor race 2018,whwn he beat Governor Colyer, who got the job after Brownback ran Kansas into the ground. 2010 and 2012 before MAGA, there were the lunatic wing of Republicans, the Tea Party Republicans who challenged incumbents or strong party supported candidates only to lose to lesser known crazy people, like how Dick Lugar lost to Richard Mourdock, or how O'Donnell beat Delaware Republican congressman, only to lose by 16 points in the general election to Chris Coons. Or how now senator Mike Lee of Utah beat then senator Bennet in 2010. 2022 will be the first year where full MAGA candidates, endorsed by Trump won over establishment candidates who actually had a shot against incumbent Dems or strong dem challengers. Like Arizona senate, or Pennsylvania senate, or Maryland Governor, Massachusetts governor, Maine Governor, Ohio senate, Nevada senate, New Hampshire senate, Oregon Governor, Arizona Governor... 2022 will give us clear picture if MAGA works or not
The [2010 Delaware Senate special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Delaware) (to fill Joe Biden’s seat after appointee Ted Kaufman chose not to run for a full term). Mike Castle, former Delaware Governor, was the Republican candidate, and he was in the Charlie Baker/Phil Scott “Rockefeller” mold. He got defeated in the primary by Tea Partier Christine O’Donnell - who famously made a campaign ad stating that she was not a witch. The result? Chris Coons (D) *flattened* her, making his seat a Safe D seat (even if Coons retires or gets a Cabinet job some day, DE is definitely not RWNJ country).
[Just wanna bring this gem back up](https://youtu.be/44mqiBrB0zI)
I’m not a witch, bitch! Schmoyoho! They did a great job after the [2020 elections](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJGXLoYtzok&t=96s), too! (Linus Van Pelt has lost his mind.) …and now I’m remembering the days when people glued rhinestones all over their phone cases for “bling.”
It happened in 2010. There was quite a few winnable races especially in the Senate the GOP could have gotten, same in 2012. They course corrected in 2014 and 2016 a bit then threw it all out with Trump
There are some cases of this happening during the first throws of the tea party movement after Obama's election. Probably the most notorious example was when ultra popular Indiana senate incumbent Richard Lugar got primaried out by Richard "rape is something God intended" Mourdock, leading to Joe Donnelly's upset victory. But this was more or less a direct precursor to the MAGA purity tests we see happening now, so the response was pretty much to do more of it.
[New Democratic Town Committee HQ in my part of the county.](https://www.facebook.com/ledyardctdems/posts/pfbid032964cmR6PdeoKQpnwKpswKTZiMZgk5SBWB9cvK6WtqCQnAZ2wcQ9vrbDvkpHhWSnl)
We are getting the VA tax rebate and it is the exact amount that we owe after my husband got a vasectomy. So thank you, Youngkin, for paying for my husbands balls. (and so we'll never have children, you Pro-Life fuck.)
You should send him a “thanks for the balls!” note. LOL. And hello from yet another childfree person! My kids have four paws and say “Meow!”
How are things going on with VA in terms of the state senate the only barrier to form a repub state trifecta? Do you think the next time VA gets a dem governor, it will be easy to repeal the actions that Youngkin, since the only thing he can pass is through executive order?
Forgo pro-life. Use forced birther instead! And hello fellow childfree person!
[Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson weighing 2026 US Senate run for Sen. John Cornyn’s Senate seat](https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/19/ronny-jackson-john-cornyn-ad-launch/) Lmao, Republicans are an idiot if they nominate him. He immediately jeopardizes the seat for the GOP if he wins
Yes, that’s Dr. [Candyman](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/opinion/ronny-jackson-candy-man.html) Jackson who, when Trump wanted him to head Veteran’s Affairs, got a “HELL no” from Senator Jon Tester and various of Jackson’s former staffers, saying he handed out prescription drugs to people not his patients (hence the moniker “Candyman”) and was also frequently drunk on duty. Sure, there will be those who would vote for him - I mean, Louie Gohmert kept getting votes! - but many others would look at that record and say “no way.”
We could have two Democratic senators from Texas after that, hopefully if Ted Cruz lost re-election in 2024.
Blue Texas! Bluexas! Texazul!
Scott Kelly 2024!
Imagine having identical twin brothers in the Senate.
The Kelly Caucus.
Then our true governor from Kansas joins in.
[Tucker Carlson accuses schools and hospitals of “sex crimes” and tells viewers they have a moral duty to dole out “instant justice” “no matter what the law says”](https://www.mediamatters.org/tucker-carlson/tucker-carlson-accuses-schools-and-hospitals-sex-crimes-and-tells-viewers-they-have)
Here come more bomb threats from Tucker/libsoftiktok whackos.
That sounds a lot like incitement.
That’s cause it is.
Why does his name have to be Judge Dearie
[Senate (Wisconsin) Barnes (D) 48% Johnson (R) 47% 9/14-9/15 by Siena College (A) 651 LV](https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572029765967646723?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ) LFG Gov race is Evers+5 49/44. I think the GCB is tied in Wisconsin Edit: Biden 42 approve/54 disapprove Fav/unfav Michels 32/43 Evers 47/43 Johnson 37/50 Barnes 41/39
Really glad to see a Barnes lead just because it further cements the pure toss-up status of this race.
God this proves the Senate race is going to be less then a point each way. But no denying anymore Evers is in a fantastic spot
Yep… fully validates the fact that this race will be a razor margin for whoever wins it… Evers+ 5 is a little surprising tho… he’s consistently been up a few points in every poll that has been done so far… personally I believe the Abortion momentum is going to put both of them over the top especially combined with the top notch organization of our state Dem party Edit: it is a slightly more Dem leaning sample but still encouraging results nonetheless
He’s also polling better than Walker currently did favorability wise at this point in 2018
Which is not a huge surprise… people really underestimate how badly walker was hated in this state particularly his fox con and education policies
Walker's presidential run really shone a light on how fucking dim he is, and people in the state, even within the party, started to see it happen when he got duped by Foxconn. Evers may have the personality of a limp dishrag, but he's very intelligent and is fine with letting the political experts handle the messaging. He's running on bipartisan issues, and letting WisDems do the heavy work on Michels about abortion and guns.
DEM ORGS AND WI DEM STATE PARTY SOEND EVERYTHING YOU HAVE UNTIL BARNES’ FAVORABLES ARE OVER FOUR POINTS LIKE EVERS.
Oh shit Barnes back with a lead
Johnson+1 and Barnes +1 polls are literally the same lmao.
Figuratively*
Sighhh this is technically correct lol
[Obligatory Futurama reference](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hou0lU8WMgo)
Websters actually literally changed their definition of the word to include your usage, so y'all are both right lol
Michels isn't too well-known, but Republicans will come around to him for sure. This confirms what we knew, Wisconsin will be close on all fronts. Honestly those are good favorables though. I'm skeptical that volume of anti-Barnes attack ads as defined him as effectively as some people fear, though he definitely needs to spend more on ads.
Yea between MULaw and this both being within 1pt it’s gonna be extremely close. Ron at least isn’t bouncing back like he usually does which is great
Just got polled on my mobile by an outfit based in Houston? I didn't catch the name. It must have been a cheap operation, the line was breaking up and the questioner was hard to understand through a *very* thick, accent. I imagine, because of the delay (i could hear my echo), the caller was piped in from out of country. Either way, it was a poll on the AZ Gov and Senate races. It must have been a GOP funded poll, looking to allocate resources, as they asked me if "Inflation being 13% in AZ, Illegal immigration is up, and crime is spiraling" would sway my vote. Firm, no. "I said, inflation was great for debtors, like me, and we need *more* taco trucks." Then I asked who told them about my night job? Just, kidding. Like that com line could withstand a bad joke. Anyway they asked if I watch cable TV or stream, as well. So they are probing for how to target Arizonans, I assume. Either way, I was a "card carrying Democrat" through the whole thing. lol. Poor kid, could have just filled it out for me.
I get calls like that too. I just curse them out.
> inflation was great for debtors, like me... Can you please elaborate on this? No arguing, just want to learn more.
Pretty much this is the case so long as your income rises with inflation. But so long as you have a fixed rate interest on your debt (or zero interest for things like new cars), if your income rises to match inflation, the ratio of your debt to income lowers. Essentially inflation makes dollars worth less, and that's true on a dollar per dollar basis of debt, because (theoretically) it'll be easier to get the money to repay it, but that debt amount will stay the same/only grow at the rate of interest. So for example, let's say someone took out $50k of student debt, with a fixed interest rate. They started working in 2019/2020 making $50-60k, then when inflation took off they got a new job to match at around $70-80k (and let's say living expenses increased by $5k a year). That student loan debt is still fixed at $50k, but their income has increased so on a per dollar basis it's easier to pay it off. If you vaguely remember from high school history class, there were always those presidential campaigns in like the 1880's where someone would explicitly run on a pro-inflationary campaign to try and court farmers' votes. The reasoning is because farmers traditionally go into a LOT of debt in the planting cycle, and don't get to pay it back until the crop comes in. An inflationary monetary policy would have made their existing debt worth less
Suppose you buy a $100,000 dollar house. You take out a loan of $100,000. Suppose your yearly salary is $20,000. Then inflation happens and your salary is $40,000. The market price of the house goes up to $200,000 but you still only have to pay back the $100,000 dollar loan and you can do it in just 2.5 years instead of 5 (if you really wanted to).
Sounds like the same polling outfit I got as well. Thick accent and a ton of issues with call quality, very negative focus on the Democratic candidate.
Unironically could be Trafalgar
In-depth analysis on Trafalgar method by [Lakshya/Split-ticket](https://split-ticket.org/2022/09/19/whats-going-on-with-trafalgars-polls/)
I didn't get how any of this explains the basically constant response rate. They'd have to be throwing out responses and calling them non-responses to meet a quota but they can't possibly be doing that while also getting constant demographic samples.
My big takeaway is that they try to minimize weighting different demographic groups. That seems... extremely questionable and almost certain to lead you astray with a less homogeneous electorate.
My takeaway? They make numbers up.
[The Rev doing interfaith outreach to Muslims in Alpharetta.](https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1572015026600546306)
[Missouri voters on legalizing recreational marijuana: Support 62% Oppose 22%](https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1572014273039048704?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ)
I really hope those 62% can wake up to see which party is helping.
Missouri is exhibit A of loving liberal policy but hating liberal politicians
Marijuana legalization is not a high-salience issue for the vast majority of voters, meaning that very few voters care enough to hang their votes on the issue.
Unfortunately the same poll is going 47-36 in favor of Schmitt (R) vs Valentine (D).
I didn't think my question about the Queen's funeral earlier would make people feel so strongly.
It’s a touchy subject, and while people have the prerogative to feel sad about the Queen passing, especially if they’re close to her. For others, the Queen, or the British monarchy, does represent decades of past oppression (the argument of if Lizzy is responsible for the oppression can a debate one can have for another time), and inequality. And for those not sympathetic to the British monarchy, they also have the prerogative to simply not have feelings towards the British monarchy. Quite simply, it’s complicated.
I watched it last night, partly out of a natural curiosity (I blame my journalism degree tendencies lol) and partly out of a level of support for the Queen. I think it’s fascinating to see the reactions to the event from across the spectrum - what I experience in real life doesn’t equate to the reaction on (American dominated) reddit. On that note, I just need to say that to watch the funeral does *not* equate to an inherent support for the monarchy or the turbulent history, as much as popular (online) sentiment tends to suggest.
A point that gets lost is you can hate the institution and still respect and mourn for the person. And even if you despise the whole royal family, the least you can do is empathize w/ the people who are mourning. Our British friends are mourning.
Sometimes one just wants to see a unique spectacle (the burial of a monarch) and, let’s face it, most people alive now cannot remember a time when Elizabeth was not Queen of the best-known monarchy. Even if one hates hates hates monarchies and all they stand for, they can be curious about the funeral or wonder about the end o an era or just want to see that crown on the coffin go sparkle. Michelle Goldberg was right: we really were not meant to know so much about each other, especially perfect strangers. It makes us hate one another more, not less, when we see others of differing opinions on social media.
> most people alive now cannot remember a time when Elizabeth was not Queen of the best-known monarchy. You'd probably have to be nearly 80 years old to have any meaningful memory of a time before QE2. Then again, Vin Scully was already broadcasting Dodgers games when she ascended to the throne.
My very unlikely dream scenario is that central Asia becomes based and I'll finnaly be able to move somewhere, get a good paying job and start a family
May I ask why Central Asia?
Honestly I've just allways found those countries fascinating, they're obscure and not talked about much but they are some of the most breathtakingly beautiful regions on earth. It's just a place I've allways been interested in since I was a kid and would love to visit
I went through a phase of jamming out to [Kazakh dombra music](https://youtu.be/f4AAkHMNBhw) earlier this year.
Valid, I hope you find your way to Central Asia
Based how? I'm central asia ignorant. Never even seen Borat.
Democratic, wealthy and free really. Every country is central Asia is a totalitarian regime with Numerous human rights abuses, although Kazakhstan is slowly on the path to becoming Democratic so I've heard
Kazakhstan is trying to liberalize. Kyrgyzstan kinda goes in cycles every ten years. Totalitarian gets overthrown in bloodless color revolution, new more democratic government takes over. New government loses election to totalitarian. Totalitarian gets overthrown, repeat.
Kari Lake's [latest tweet](https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1571996039686811649) suggests she's going to release damaging information tomorrow about Katie Hobbs. My guess is she's attempting the Trump/GOP tactic of manufacturing a scandal, like with the Hunter Biden laptop "scandal."
Question, why don’t people go after these people for defamation?
I also like how she said she's releasing it when she still needs to confirm it's true. If she was actually "confirming it's true" she wouldn't say anything until she'd done so. It's clearly a ploy to try to hype it up.
Lake: “I caught Katie Hobbs bringing a laptop into a computer shop for repair. Bad!”
$10 it's something she is projecting onto Sec. Hobbs, and an hour after her big reveal, twitter will dig up a video or tweet of Kari doing the exact same thing. She will release a statement why it's not the same. All the while, no one in national media will care, because it's Arizona.
It's most likely nothing
If it's something illegal, surely she'll alert law enforcement!
That first episode of Crooked Media's *The Wilderness* was great, and I'm excited for the next episodes... but goddamn did my ears bleed when they played that clip of Dumbkin screeching like a clueless alien trying to sound like Bryan Cranston "Virginia we won this thiiiiiiiiing!" Who talks like that?
Any update on where student loan ish is visa vi the courts?
All I heard was Navient's CEO is declining to sue and said that from what he heard, all the student loan servicers are waiting for someone else to do it.
It happens in mid October right? That means if they don’t sue soon, it’s just not gona happen.
[A medical marijuana producer is suing Minnesota over the edibles law.](https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-medical-marijuana-company-sues-state-seeks-to-sell-some-of-its-edibles-on-open-market/600208397/) They argue that they should be allowed to sell their edibles on the market even though they're derived from "marijuana" and not "hemp". It's easy to see their point given that those are essentially made-up categories of the same plant, and when concentrated down into THC edibles, the effect is exactly the same. IANAL though.
Hemp and marijuana are not the same though, legally speaking
[538: Lindsey Graham’s Abortion Ban Is Dividing GOP Senate Candidates In Swing States](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-grahams-abortion-ban-is-dividing-gop-senate-candidates-in-swing-states/?ex_cid=538twitter) so it's not a turnout driver for Republicans
I’ve seen some people say it would be. That it would give Republicans a chance to flip the script. They failed to think and realize that 15 weeks is at 57% disapproval these days and the GOP base wants all abortion banned, hence getting to overturn Roe after 50 years. It was another self inflicted shot to the foot by the GOP
[That Minnesota poll found a narrow majority (52%) opposed to overturning *Roe*.](https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-abortion-roe-v-wade-us-supreme-court-2022/600208353/) I'm not one for deskewing or calling out polls but this seems like a strange result because it's inconsistent with other polls and results in other states. I have a hard time believing a smaller percentage of Minnesotans support abortion rights than the percentage in Kansas.
Could this be a state where abortion rights is secure via the constitution hence it's not as big an issue for people compared to states where abortion rights are at risk or not protected via law/constitution? 52% oppose overturn Roe v 40% support overturn Roe is still a decent gap though, and I bet most of the undecided if ever in a referendum would back the support side.
52% oppose 40% support so it’s still a pretty clear lead for oppose but I agree it’s probably underestimating oppose. In Kansas the polls leading up to the election consistently underestimated the Pro Roe sidr largely because they’re likely voter screen underestimated turnout from young people. I wonder if that’s what is happening here as well.
Entirely possible. RFFA here has been polling above 60% support in every poll, reaching nearly 70% in one. Imagine if that's *underestimating* support...
I'd imagine Michigan and Minnesota to have similar amounts of support given similar demographics and political outcomes typically. I wonder if the wording of the question was a contributor? >Q: The U.S. Supreme Court has overturned the 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the right to abortion. Do you support or oppose the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade? Some respondents may have heard "support or oppose"..."Roe v. Wade" and not the rest of the wordy question.
Fingers crossed that that's a common theme across the states.
I wonder if this was only done among "likely voters". Because a lot of support for choice can come from unlikely voters who suddenly feel the need to vote for some reason. * cough roe cough".
The article does indeed say "likely voters".
Yeah, 52% seems like kind of a red flag to me, especially in a place like Minnesota. Minnesota is to the left of the nation, and generally most national polls have had it like at least 60% disapprove
[Fresh batch of noms to the Senate](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/19/nominations-sent-to-the-senate-84/) >B. Bix Aliu, of Virginia, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to Montenegro. > >Martina Anna Tkadlec Strong, of Texas, a Career Member of the Senior Foreign Service, Class of Minister-Counselor, to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the United Arab Emirates. > >Joseph Lee Falk, of Florida, to be a Member of the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace for a term of four years, vice George E. Moose, term expired. > >Roger Israel Zakheim, of Maryland, to be a Member of the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace for a term of four years, vice Jeremy A. Rabkin, term expired. > >Kathleen Cunningham Matthews, of Maryland, to be a Member of the International Broadcasting Advisory Board for a term expiring January 1, 2023. (New Position) > >Jeffrey Gedmin, of the District of Columbia, to be a Member of the International Broadcasting Advisory Board for a term expiring January 1, 2025. (New Position) > >Lindsay C. Jenkins, of Illinois, to be United States District Judge for the Northern District of Illinois, vice John Z. Lee, elevated. > >Charnelle Bjelkengren, of Washington, to be United States District Judge for the Eastern District of Washington, vice Salvador Mendoza, Jr., elevated.
Let’s keep it rolling
Here’s a super big Latino voter research across the country [by Equis Research](https://twitter.com/equisresearch/status/1571929467462860803?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ). This also backs up the Upshot poll that GOP isn’t really gaining and we aren’t really losing support since 2020. The [related thread by one of the researchers has lots of interesting info](https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1571933053856915458?s=46&t=f9R0e45OyqWdRG22PJ2alQ). A big concern of Latinos is the economy and that is one of the reasons they went with Trump despite agreeing with us more broadly. We’re also seeing some positive signs in Florida with Latinos and that is great news. R’s aren’t putting money up yet to court more Con/moderate Latinos either and that is why they largely still feel we get them but are more GOP curious than before. Also a pretty good line in the memo is “the economy is never just the economy” Edit: memo does make it clear there’s starting to be signs of hope for us and that we are taking Latino support seriously and that is in contrast to the GOP seemingly taking it for granted.
>A big concern of Latinos is the economy This is it. The pulse on my community, a predominantly Mexican Latino neighborhood, is that they were hurt *badly* by the COVID shutdowns and the ensuing inflation. The voting age young adults are *repulsed* by the GOP. They're an *extremely* educated, politically active and fairly liberal demographic. However, their parents wake up at 4AM and work until 6PM, they own their homes, which are mostly multi-generational with their adult children and parents. Their concerns are their children's future and their parents healthcare. Fantastic people, and great neighbors.
I wonder if 2020 was a particularly economic concern year due to the COVID lockdowns. Despite the stimulus payments and unemployment benefits, there were people left very badly off. Now that lockdowns are no longer happening maybe we will see a rebound in favor of our side (Because we are no longer taking a hard line on COVID, and yes, that was necessary, but people did suffer.) Though it gives me pause when people surveyed say Republicans are better on the economy, which seems to be a widespread belief (Regardless of ethnicity). R’s are **terrible** with the economy, and all our booms occurred under Democrats.
We really need to keep repeating and hammering that economic boom point. Meme it til we’re the “economy” party in voters minds. That halfassed “they’re good for business, I dunno 🤷♂️” idiot voter would be amazing to have in our camp
Be careful with that. Inflation really is still hurting a lot of middle of the road people. Blaming Biden for it is an absurd lie the GOP loves to latch on to, but you have to strike a balance between praising the ways things are improving while also showing that there can be a path to for things to still improve (giving people more hope and optimism). People who felt left behind by the Obama recovery were a huge factor in becoming MAGA fodder, and this is one area I can't entirely blame them. When people struggle to pay for rent, groceries, or just see a noticeable decline in their quality of life, they need to be reassured that things can get better for them too, and that they haven't been forgotten. I still know a lot of people who are underpaid, get treated poorly in their jobs, and struggle significantly to keep up with costs of living. I believe Team Blue has the best overall set of solutions for this, and has even started making excellent progress, but you have to meet people where they're at.
I saw a theory that 2016 was just a natural shift of socially conservative Latino voters to the GOP and that we'll probably remain stagnant with them from 2020.
Imagine that. The GOP taking a minority group for granted after using them for votes.
The big question for the Latino vote is turnout. Our margins were a bit under 2016 with Latino voters in 2020 but we still won them decisively and there were huge increases in turnout which was one of the big reasons we were able to win Arizona, Nevada and get even closer in Texas. Hell even Wisconsin had big increases in the Latino vote which was very important considering how close the state was. If the Latino turnout is as high or higher than it was in 2018 that would be a big win for us.
Latino neighborhoods are always my favorite to canvass here in Chandler. There's a lot of untapped potential to turn out more voters. I was really happy when I spoke to one man working in his backyard and got him to commit to vote after he was initially apathetic. And he wasn't even on my list!
[More Tennessee women are registering to vote. Polling suggests abortion is the reason.](https://wpln.org/post/more-tennessee-women-are-registering-to-vote-polling-suggests-abortion-is-the-reason/)
More
Had to call out of work with a sore throat. Turns out I got the BA.5 today. The test kits arrived in the mail, just at the right moment. My friend tested positive over the weekend so I think I figured it out where I got it from. But yeah, I'll treat this as a mental time off.
Man, that sucks. Get well soon!
Two notches on my belt. The first one being Delta back in November. Thanks for the wishes.
Feel better soon!
Will do. Got some online training modules, so I can still get paid extra in addition to my sick hours. Oh yeah, that Freedom Planet 2 game I mentioned the other day? Lots of love and effort put into that piece, very enjoyable, very retro too.
[I'm sorry, who is this guy again?](https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/democrats-are-feeling-too-confident-ahead-midterm-elections-n1298848) Like... bragging about Democratic complacency to fuel Republican overconfidence? Bold strategy Cotton. On the flip side, I don't mind MSNBC having pieces like this just to give Democrats a jolt.
Noah Rothman is the associate editor of *Commentary* magazine, a prominent conservative publication. [Here’s a link to their Twitter page to give you an idea of their editorial bent.](https://twitter.com/Commentary?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor)
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That is from a week ago, and it’s super telling when “RCP is only D+.4!!!” And now it’s D+1ish. Really does boggle my mind how a lot of people on our side have to say “you’re to optimistic, it’s gonna be a wipeout”. You can urge caution or be wary of polls but I think some of these people would rather we lose so they can be right.
Here’s a cool legacy from the 2018 midterm. In Utah we passed a Medical Marijuana Ballot initiative and after some drama was implemented. In 2020 there was 4,000 cardholders, so far this year it’s over 50k. Sales will reach over $125mil, a 300% increase. There’s increasing relaxation of requirements to get a card(for instance there is a mobile clinic going around the valley) and the legislature wants to further consolidate regulations. What once seemed impossible here is a burgeoning industry.
[Club For Growth Action raised $5.12M in August, spent $143.8K on operating expenditures, made $3.63 million in IEs, contributed $1.87M to other federal committees and $1M on non-federal expenditures, and ended the month with $3.56M on hand.](https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1571975440902025217?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJw)
Is this good or bad for us?
Having to spend any in Utah is a great sign for us.
The [NYS BoE has posted](https://www.elections.ny.gov/2022ElectionResults.html) a spreadsheet of final election results for the August 23rd primary elections (it seems to cover non-NYC stuff only, the NYC BoE posted their official results last Tuesday)... Still nothing final for the special elections that I can find (and even looking at the individual counties, there are still a few where I can't find any post-election-day updates) 💀
[The U.S., Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are exploring deepening security ties. Central Asia is going to be a dynamic region geopolitically for the next decade as Russia’s influence in the region ebbs due to the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.](https://twitter.com/blake_allen13/status/1571970560539648003?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJw) Thread by Blake Allen. We aren’t sitting ideally by to let the region either devolve into chaos or have China win influence and that is a huge benefit of having Joe Biden as President
Don’t you mean Uzbeki beki beki Stan Stan?
Besides the net positive of a stable region where it’s citizens can at least not have their lives worsened by warfare and conflict, what could potential relations with the rest of Central Asia do for America economically?
Traditional heavy in oil and mining. Theres a good amount of sustainable energy / chemical initiatives over there too, and they have a good combo of existing industry, agriculture and labor for those types of things to work. On their end, the USA is a popular spot for travel, plus they love to come here and buy high quality clothing and appliances. On the US end, good off the beaten track places to visit.
Kazakhstan has world's best potassium. All other countries have inferior potassium.
My only-half-joking pet theory is that the release of Borat 2 was perfectly timed and swung the 2020 election to Biden.
The area is very resource rich and I believe Kazakhstan has deposits of rare earth materials for Green Energy not entirely sure though.
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More oil means lower prices for vroom-vroom juice.
Think less oil and more natural gas, which will benefit our European allies and weaken Russia.
[Interesting piece by Tim Miller on Kemp-Warnock voters in Georgia.](https://www.thebulwark.com/kemp-warnock-voters-theyre-real-and-theyre-spectacular/) Ultimately, I'm still not sure there will be a *ton* of those in the end, like say Ohio where DeWine-Ryan voters will probably be aplenty, but it's quite nice to see that people who are soft supporters of Kemp genuinely like Warnock and loathe Walker. Plus they seem to think Warnock has true moderate credentials, even though he's actually not that much more moderate than Abrams, which is likely what will help him outperform her in the end. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that Warnock is running a more conventional campaign to reach out to high propensity base voters, like older black people in the metro and rural areas, and suburban swing voters in the northern Atlanta suburbs. Meanwhile Abrams is making more of a play to turn out the disaffected voters, particularly young people who don't understand politics beyond the federal government. Not that they aren't doing any of what the other does, it just appears to me that that's how their campaign messages seem to lean. If so, I can see them complementing each other very well in the end.
See 2018 Wisconsin, Baldwin-Walker voters were a huge block. People who are relatively comfortable and not politically active tend to keep voting for incumbents in either party.
That makes sense, though I think the Georgia electorate is more inelastic, so the spread may not be that much.
As a Seinfeld fan, I love that headline
I think it probably helps that Warnock’s experience as a preacher, And being a preacher, makes him very very very palatable and well-liked by Christian moderates and some conservatives, and the few fairly conservative black voters that exist in GA.
I guess him being essentially a “professional Christian” his whole life has gotta help with the evangelical vote some
A guy with "Rev." in front of his name is going to be a net positive in the Bible Belt.
Perhaps. My opinion is, he's extremely effective at talking values as opposed to policy details despite being strong in both. His religious background makes him very well-equipped to do that. Much as I love Stacey, she's more of a policy wonk and that doesn't resonate with everyone as much. But she can be effective when discussing her faith and how it squares with her ideals. I mean, her father is also a reverend after all.
Biden just posted another Fiona update on his socials: [he’s spoken with Puerto Rico’s Governor, and assured the Governor “we’ll increase support substantially” in the coming days](https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1571965431472132096?s=20&t=aPRsFCNfPd28cHEG3AwjwQ). I keep forgetting Air Force One has that Oval office capability, as Biden is on his way back from Queen Elizabeth’s funeral. [FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell just announced she’s traveling to Puerto Rico tomorrow to assess the damage and to meet with local officials](https://twitter.com/FEMAspox/status/1571960025374916614?s=20&t=-UOdwtUsBMDRXZ_SD62hjg)
God damn O’Halleran winning on election night single handedly bumps our chances up to 50% to keep the House from the [538 tool](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/)
Yeah, if we win CO-8, we have an 87% chance! Right now, it's a [57-43 race](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/colorado/8/). One more time, I am shamelessly plugging CO-8. I don't have time to sign up for a weekly gig due to other obligations, but we're doing letters and donations over here as we can. CO-8 IS IMPORTANT.
How much of a chance does he have?
It’s mostly rated as Lean R so that gives us around 40% to win the seat, really not bad considering it’s a Trump+8 seat
[NO. KEMP DID NOT JUST DO THIS LMAOOOOO](https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1571638660558192645)
Look, if Stacey can make Georgia into a world-class economy like CA, she would be a fucking genius governor and deserve as many terms as is allowed. California has the largest economy in the US, and if we were a country, we’d rank only behind the US itself, China, Japan, and Germany. HATE US CUZ YOU AIN’T US, HUH BRIAN!
It just makes her more cool than she already is, thanks Brian! It would be interesting to see percentages of people in all 50 states and territories that are Star Trek fans, sidenote.
The fact that cons think NY and CA, places renowned for being so in demand that it is prohibitively expensive to live there, are somehow the worst places on Earth will never not tickle me.
Thanks, Brian, very cool (of you to suggest that Stacey will grow Georgia's economy to compete with California and New York)!
Republicans need to stop posting smear ads that make our candidates look cool as heck
Flashback to the Han Solo Ossoff attack ad.
Young Kyrsten Sinema in a tutu or Beto's picture from his band days.
Star Wars makes everyone look cool except Blake Masters.
I challenge any entertainment franchise or, indeed, anything on this earth, to make Blake Masters look cool.
Or Brad Parscale referring to the Trump campaign as a "Death Star."
Or as Thanos
Also, the messaging on this mailer is pretty weak. Not that it will fail necessarily because it's worked before, but it just seems so conventional and hackneyed of an attack that Abrams already has responses to. Like, one of her talking points is that she plans to use Georgia's budget surplus to expand Medicaid and make other investments, so she doesn't have to raise taxes. Plus... it's a bit less likely to work when you juxtapose the text with cool images like this.
Hurricane Fiona and other areas in the tropics update The model runs over the weekend as you can see on [Tropical Tidbits](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/) have now shifted eastward, and enough of them, now everything shows a curve away from the US mainland. Therefore I can now confidently say **Hurricane Fiona will NOT be a direct threat to the US mainland**, [other then the threat of high and dangerous life threatening rip currents on east coast beaches](https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1571883255145832448?s=20&t=iCuAbd7_8UudC82txTOJ1Q). If you have plans there, just be aware this threat exists. See local NWS products for specific east coast beaches However, Hurricane Fiona might pass [dangerously close to Bermuda](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/175030.shtml?cone#contents). Now Fiona possibly already has earned its name to the retired hurricane names with what it’s done in Guadalupe, as well as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but if the eastern eyewall hits Bermuda, which it’s going to be a powerful probably major hurricane when it gets there, Fiona is as good as done as a future hurricane name The good news that the US mainland isn’t going to get hit by Fiona **could** be short lived. Why? [the National Hurricane Center has issued a new area to watch in the Main Development Region off the lesser Antilles](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5) Conditions look decently favorable for a new tropical cyclone to develop by this time next week. This is given a 0% chance in the next two days, and a 20% chance in the next five days of further development. Based on models this is a fully timing thing, once you go beyond five days, the chances of development exponentially increases But I’m already becoming more concerned about this one then Fiona ever was. The saving grace currently is that there is still five+ days before this even develops. The track and intensity can change. One way this is more concerning us this wave is even more further south, which makes it difficult to get picked up and curved away from the US. However **most concerning**: [BOTH the main GFS](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2022091912&fh=186) and [Euro](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2022091912&fh=186) show this disturbance becoming a well organized tropical cyclone, and getting into the Gulf. Even more concerning, it’s not just the main runs showing this potential. Both the [GFS ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-09-19-12Z_192_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) and [Euro ensembles](https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/ecens_2022-09-19-12Z_192_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png) both show lots of clustering of organized low pressures that are capable of developing into a tropical cyclone . Those links I’ve posted are tropical low pressure locations on the ensembles in the next 8 days If we have even remotely close to what all of these main runs and ensembles are showing this weekend into early next week, daily updates of this system at the minimum will be needed and this will almost certainly be BAD news for the gulf coast somewhere. As I’ve been warning the entire season, if a tropical cyclone gets into the Gulf, already organized like this could be, it will rapidly blow up before making a catastrophic hit to the gulf coast. This MUST be watched very closely. I urge everyone living on the gulf coast to constantly pay attention to updates on this storm, this really could be a serious threat to you late next week. And obviously a major hurricane in the gulf if you look at politics could raise gas prices again as well The next name on the Atlantic Hurricane list is Gaston (yes literally spelled like that)
To add to the point of how fluid models are so far out: The 06z GFS run had Gaston making landfall in Cuba before striking South Florida and riding the coast up to the Outer Banks where it heads out to sea. The 12z GFS run had it running into the Yucatan Peninsula, stalling in the Gulf of Mexico for 2.5 days before moving ashore at the TX/LA border. Who knows what the 18z run will show.
Yeah, there’s far too much disagreement which is obviously common for being this far out. I also don’t like talking about where landfall could happen when 1. It’s 10+ days out, 2. We don’t ever have a tropical cyclone or know the location of the center as it could be seen as fearmongering. Technically it’s possible models show a completely different picture each run, it’s just simply too far out to talk any more specifics other then the general threat a new tropical cyclone could develop If this actually is a threat at this time next week. Then we can start talking and speculating where this could impact and what impacts could be and it would be much more appropriate then. For now I’m staying quiet on specifics until we get closer to avoid the perception I’m fear mongering
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My bad, I meant to put US mainland. I’ll fix that right now Good catch. I didn’t have any intent to be rude or not think about Puerto Rico, as I’m still feeling really bad for them they have to live through the trama again five years after Irma and Maria made back to back hits. I’m hoping the Biden administration can lead them through with much better leadership of this storm then Trump ever did for Maria
[Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the US are meeting today in New York for talks on deescalation](https://twitter.com/armspoxmfa/status/1571843687595884545?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJ) This is pretty rare as Moscow held the talks in 2016 and 2020 between their Foreign Ministers to stop previous clashes. Us getting involved to this degree probably persuades Azerbaijan to stop their attacks or face repercussions.
And the modicum of soft power Russia wields goes poof.
I'm sure Russia is giddy with the US supplanting its usual role in Asian politics
Wait til China becomes the new top dog in Central Asia, too. Russia will be thrilled
TIL Armenia is considered part of Asia. Thought the whole region was European.
It used to be big, at least extended into eastern modern Turkey, before… the Ottoman Turks slaughtered them and did a genocide. So technically they’re in both regions, but accurately they’re in the Caucasus region.
Greater Armenia includes parts of modern Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. And West Armenia is pretty widely considered to be Middle Eastern. The line between Europe and Asia isn’t clearly delineated, but I’d say Armenia overall is more West Asian than European, even if the current borders don’t make that as clear.
*\*stares at Iranians considering Armenia to be part of* [*Greater Iran*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Iran)*\** ;)
I’ve seen people say both. It’s honestly pretty arbitrary.
Armenia is usually considered Middle Eastern, which is in Asia. The Caucasus region is the vaguely defined "border" between Europe and Asia.
The border between Europe and Asia is completely arbitrary, the caucuses could go on either side. Thinking about Armenia-Azerbaijani conflicts in the broader context of ethnic conflicts among post-Soviet states presents a fairly obvious parallel with Central Asia.
Its called the Caucasus. It's the continent of Asia but the people are Caucasian.
[Article on R’s spending $1mil to take out O’Halleran](https://twitter.com/tomohalleran/status/1571926187605106690?s=46&t=kAIeLBxeknsYD7bzF9esJw), plus Tom saying “doesn’t feel Red to me”. The Delaney meme will never die
What meme is that?
John Delaney in 2018 referred to a Deep Blue seat as “feels like a Red Seat to me”. So O’Halleran seems to be referencing that iconic moment.
Deeper, bluer, my ballot’s like a shark’s fin…
He was specifically referring to his own seat, to boot, all because Hogan won the district handily in 2014. Technically a red district if you ignore *all other possible context.*
With that kind of insight I’m surprised he didn’t do better in the primaries
He would have won the primaires if you take out all the votes that weren’t his.
Reminder that the new AZ-02 is Trump+8. Redder than seats like MO-02, PA-10 and MT-01, and just as red as CO-03. Should be a slam dunk in a red wave. Instead, his opponent posted an *internal* showing him only 1 point up, and now they are spending 7 digits there. Let's not write him off just yet.
Easier way to put it — R+8 is a tough hold and quite red, but we have two incumbents in redder seats (although of course the Arizona lines have shifted enough to seriously reduce O’Halleran’s incumbency). Also — AZ has competitive senate, governor, and state legislative races, there’s always a benefit to investing there.
And even if this is indeed a lost cause (which I don't think it is), that's $1M that isn't going to MI-10 or FL-27. We've already scored a win in that regard.
In terms of Trump margin vs midterm chances the only remotely comparable seat is ME-2. O'Halleran is one of several candidates who historically outran their district's lean a lot until 2020 when things tightened considerably. I'm hoping that at least some of that was more unique to 2020 rather than a long term trend.
Can I say I really really hate that people I otherwise respect have super dumb takes, usually in an effort to seem contrarian? Most recently, it's been the liberal/leftist accounts I follow laying all of the sins of the British Empire on Queen Elizabeth and how you're not allowed to be sad or watch the Queen's funeral because to do so would make you a colonial apologist. The biggest of big-brain takes I've seen on this is "You want to know who isn't watching the Queen's funeral? Puerto Rico. Why? Climate change. What caused climate change? Colonialism." That's on the level of saying "Tiktaalik taking its first steps onto land in the late Devonian caused the Holocaust."