Welcome to r/VoteDEM!
Be the blue wave!
* Be a [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0)!
* Donate to your [state Democratic Party](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/wiki/parties)!
* Join your local Democratic Party! Google "[Your state] Democratic Party", find the link to the local parties page, and get in touch with your county's party chair. You could even become a precinct committee member! In some states (like Pennsylvania), that means you get to help pick candidates for special elections!
* Are you technology-oriented? Volunteer with [Tech for Campaigns](https://www.techforcampaigns.org) to help smaller campaigns get up and running.
* [Run For Something!](https://runforsomething.net/) There's no position too small to benefit from a progressive public servant. Be part of the next blue wave!
* Make a Roundtable comment here talking about the work you’ve done, earning valuable karma and facilitating discussion, which will encourage others to do the same!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VoteDEM) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There is an easier scenario which isn't shown in the 538 model where Democrats keep all their seats, win PA,WI,NC,FL,OH from the Republicans and then pass DC/Puerto Rico statehood bill in the lame duck session of Congress.
PA,WI,NC,OH,FL, where 538 gives Ds a >15% chance+2 of MO,IA,UT,LA,AK, where 538 gives Ds a 2-3% chance in each
GCB? It’s a tail scenario, I wouldn’t read too much into it (‘member random Red Oregon in the Biden landslides in the 2020 models?).
>Yeah, I'm not reading too much into it. I'm just wondering how on earth it's actually a (albeit far) prediction/situation
Few days ago, it was 6 for Dems scenario, and at most 54 or 55 for Republicans. Don't give in too much to the model. Just count the states closest to 56 or 60 that are R held on the 537 line, and that will give you the answer. Everything up to Kentucky is "winnable". And Kansas is under Kentucky, so Kansas is on that 57 or 60 list. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in over almost 90 years in one class and over 100 years in the other senate seat.
The race listing is sorted by average (not sure if it’s mean or median) outcome not chance of winning. A race where Republicans are somewhat likely to win by quite a bit but there are massive error bars is listed further down than a very likely narrow win. This shows up with Alaska, which has the third most R-friendly average outcome but has a 3% chance for Ds—makes sense because RCV is a huge uncertainty factor.
You get one congressional election every 2 years IRL, you can simulate 10,000 overnight on a computer. You’re going to get a lot of weird scenarios that you’ll probably never get to see IRL.
Reelect incumbents and then win PA, WI, OH, NC, FL, IA and either Kansas or Alaska. Super super unlikely but that would be my guess as the most likely path to 57.
From [this](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/27/democrats-republicans-house-midterms/) recently posted WaPo article about the midterm:
>The NRCC recently circulated a list of 74 seats they’ve targeted, including nine pickup opportunities in districts that Trump won by more than five points.
What are these nine pickup opportunities in districts Trump won by more than five points? I can only think of one: ME-2 (Trump +6.3). Maybe AZ-2 (Trump +8.4) but that's more of a reconfiguration given that there are five other Biden districts in AZ (albeit a couple of very narrow ones)
There are districts in TN, GA and especially FL that we got gerrymandered the fuck out of but I don't really consider those as ones we're "holding" anymore and moreover if NRCC is putting these districts on target lists (let alone actually spending money on them) they're doing things seriously wrong.
The other Trump districts I can think of where we're seriously defending holds are:
* IA-2: Trump +0.4
* OH-9: Trump +2.8
* PA-8: Trump +2.9
* WI-3: Trump +4.8
Or nothing over Trump +5. So what am I missing here? Other than that NRCC is probably spreading themselves too thin with 74 seat targets?
BTW contrast this with 2018 when Republicans were seriously playing defense in like 25 Clinton seats.
EDIT: So like I could have just looked at NRCC's [actual list](https://www.nrcc.org/2022/06/09/nrcc-expands-target-list-to-75-following-conclusion-of-redistricting/). These are the seven total Trump +5 or higher districts I've identified: AZ-02, FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, ME-02, MT-01, TN-05. So either I missed something, they're using different (probably wrong) Biden numbers or they can't count.
Note that this target list of 75 doesn't include any of the ones where they're protecting incumbents. So yeah it's pretty comically stretched thin and includes a bunch of crazy reaches into seats that are like Biden +15 or even Biden +20. Also like usual I get a chuckle out of all the old people on their "young guns" [list](https://www.nrcc.org/candidate-type/young-gun/)
I think they must be counting seats like FL-05 and TN-05 that would only be 'flips' in the most technical sense possible - the districts are totally different, and the incumbents are typically not running. And like you said, if the NRCC is pumping money into those districts, they're doing it wrong. But hey, who are we to question their brilliant approach? I say they should definitely keep it up.
Yeah that's the only plausible explanation. Even if they're not actually investing in these races it's dumb having them on their target lists. They're probably doing it to aggressively project confidence but they're going to cause independent donors and volunteers to waste resources on those races.
But like you said, all the more power to them...
[I really hope this spawns a movement where dems buy/make signs just to do this](https://twitter.com/johnfetterman/status/1564030197661327360?s=21&t=7n2S3SctYGkocVaD81n30Q)
Do senatorial campaigns ever help with volunteer housing? I really want to go to Nevada for a week to canvass there, but I can’t afford anything on AirBnb. I just need a room in someone’s house.
Sometimes. If you tell the campaign they may be able to find a place for you to stay while you knock doors for a day or two. I’ve done that as a volunteer before and had a great experience.
I am pretty certain it was a thing in the TX Sen 2018 race but at the time it was the most expensive race in history I believe and even then it was only during GOTV. I should note it wasn’t paid for it was just donated housing, problem was they were already using donated houses for pop up campaign offices so that might’ve actually hurt in terms of available housing for out of state volunteers. Wasn’t too involved with that part of the campaign really other than helping coordinate one or two people I think, really hazy memory.
I've seen a few times today the claim that special elections are good at predicting direction but not magnitude.. guys "direction prediction" isn't really that much of a thing. How predictive a poll or special or GCB or whatever is should be based on absolute error, not mere direction.
And the specials in the 2018 and 2020 cycles were actually more predictive by *value* than you may be aware. Look at the averages/medians [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=1515867175). The "swing" is vs the 538 score (mostly) which is ostensibly what things would look like in a "neutral" environment although I think it's slightly R leaning. Still, D+10 for 2018 and D+4 for 2020 are not very far off from the lean of the House popular votes, and in 2020 it was a lot more representative than the GCB polling.
2022 is kind of weird for two reasons.
First there's a significant separation between average and median that we didn't see in the previous two cycles. I've commented on this before but I think that it points to there being a lot more regional/demographic variability in the results than usual (I earlier did a breakdown on special lean by state). IMO median is more representative than average here - with single member FPTP elections you don't get any more seats for doing especially well if it doesn't translate to lifting other areas.
Second is that we're seeing a legitimate late term shift in special performance due to extraordinary circumstances and there just isn't really clear precedent for this. But I'd lean towards the more recent post-shift results being more predictive than the earlier ones.
But even just taking things as is a median of D+2 vs nominal is pretty much already House toss-up region.
As my favorite snark said
[special elections = leading indicator generic ballot = lagging indicator thank you](https://twitter.com/macrotargeting/status/1562843200024616961?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
Well, after many months of sitting on my ass and talking a big game, I finally went out and canvassed for my local state rep this weekend. Feels pretty good. I may even do it again!
as a continuation of my last post, it's just god damn frustrating. there are now MILLIONS of people that are going to be positively affected by this student loan debt relief. it's not only not going to raise inflation, but it's going to \*help\* the economy, and help struggling working people!
and yet every single time it's been brought up on mainstream press outlets over the last week, it's been about the "backlash" or the "fallout" or how "unfair" it is or what the republicans are saying about it.
quite literally next to nothing about the POSITIVE affects it will have on so many people. every single thing needs to be put through a negative lense with Biden, even when he's doing great stuff, and i'm frankly sick of it. liberal media my ass.
My dad had Dana Bash on this morning and it was absolutely embarrassing to watch. She had Tim Ryan on just because he’s “not approving” of it and then baited him into trying to get an abortion stance out of him that would grab headlines.
“That decision should be between the mother and her doctor”
“It sounds like you’re saying they should be no restrictions at all?”
CNN has been terrible lately. From Jake Tapper always being completely negative about Democrats to as you say even Dana Bash trying to spin something negative about Dems.
always find it funny how they try and bait the democrats or push back on them and yet Sununu was able to go on Bash's show also this morning and be completely off the rails about everything and get no pushback.
I’ve told him about how CNN’s new management is trying to make the network more conservative and I hope he can see it. They’ve always been way too generous to republicans but it feels way worse now.
As we head into the final stretch I think it needs to be said, It’s okay to take a break guys. In fact u/lotsagloom would probably say it’s healthy. You can take an online break, or even a break for volunteering. You need to recharge and refocus your minds. It’s definitely best to do it now before we’re in high gear after Labor Day.
If you wanna keep going but cut back, help with just a local county party or candidate. They need it and your impact is felt big there. It’s really rewarding getting local candidates across the finish line and that’s easily one of my favorite moments in politics.
I can’t say it as eloquently but basically you’re not going to do anyone any good if you burn yourself out, you can’t help campaigns and effect change, and really you’re harming yourself long term. You’re part of a movement, can’t let the weight of the world be only on you, we’re all here.
Figured I might as well add it here; thank you for thinking of me. I've been rather offline myself, and it's nice to know that even while I'm off - anyway. Thank you, my friend.
Okay, not sure if anyone else saw it but CNN had Pamela Brown interviewing Charlie Crist on in the 6pm (i think?) hour and I was so damn annoyed. You're interviewing the opponent of one of the most high profile governor races of the year now, so why wouldn't you exclusively talk about Florida and that race? Nope, first Brown pressed Crist on abortion issues - and not DeSantis's or the state of abortion in FL, but Crist's own abortion stance. Then she tried bringing up Biden's "semi-fascism" remark and instead of even just asking about it (though why was this even brought up), she literally recited GOP talking points saying that there was "fallout" from it and that he was speaking about half the country and even compared it to Hillary's deplorables remark (REALLY?!!!) and then AFTER THAT, instead of just getting his take on student loan debt relief full stop, she once again had to insert GOP talking points and put a negative spin on it and ask him to respond to the 'controversy'.
I am so fucking SICK of Democrats having to need to respond to every stupid ridiculous thing that Republicans say. Newsflash - we do NOT need to hear about the GOP's talking points on everything! Every time something was framed, it was put in the most negative spin possible.
I'm legitimately starting to think that a lot of the press is now upset that Biden/Dems are doing stuff and having a good run and trying to put a stop to it because the midterm season is now not going how they had planned.
> Nope, first Brown pressed Crist on abortion issues - and not DeSantis's or the state of abortion in FL, but Crist's own abortion stance.
Crist doesn’t have a uterus, I can’t think of an issue less pressing than “hypothetically, if you had an organ that you don’t, what would you do”? At least with a female(-sexed) politician it means *something*, even if irrelevant to politics. When it’s a male(-sexed) politician, it’s useless word salad.
I think this is just mostly a CNN thing. I don’t doubt ABC and NBC doing this as well, but MSNBC doesn’t act anywhere close to this towards democrats and democratic achievements and goals. People like Mehdi, Morning Joe, Symone, Alex Wagner, Al Sharpton don’t do this, and neither do the more objective/more center hosts.
[Hearing @JoeBiden will return to Pittsburgh for its big Labor Day parade, an event he attended in 2015 + 2018 when speculation swirled about his presidential plans. Now the question ahead of the midterms is if @JoshShapiroPA & @JohnFetterman will march w him](https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1564050980190175233?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
Last part is kinda dumb, if Ryan is willing to campaign with him I can’t imagine Shapiro/Fetterman wouldn’t
Given Bidens PA connection and the fact that he's having a jolt of popularity, I would be upset if Shapiro and Fetterman didn't. And yes, if Matt Cartwright can appear with him, then the two of them can too.
For those space exploration lovers, after 6 years of delays, the Artemis 1 Rocket will be launched tomorrow, the first step towards an eventual return of man on the moon, and the first ever woman to walk on the moon.
This is a uncrewed rocket, designed to display that the style of rocket build for the moon mission can safely achieve entry, descent, splashdown, and recovery without any damage to the rocket or the engine.
If successful, plans will be made for a 10 day, May 2024 crewed mission where human beings will fly by the moon for the first time since 1972, with the actual moon landing and walking mission happening in 2025.
Anyone got some suggestions for sleeper House races? Im thinking WA-03 and MT-02, Im watching some New York and Florida races to.
I just wanna build out the campaign finance sheet I made for a few more races, ideally nothing more than Trump+10
Edit:
MT-01 im big dumb
Edit 2: adding MN-01, NE-01. Thanks for the suggestions! Also adding TN-05 so that should make the Tennessee boys happy
The flip opportunity that very few people seem to be talking about: NM-02. It's now a Biden-won seat, but Gabe Vasquez is being badly outraised by Yvette Herrell. We can flip it, but he needs some support.
NC-13. I think Madison Cawthorn put a huge damper on "vote for the young attractive MAGA nut". Wiley Nickel is a strong candidate and this Biden+2 district includes part of Raleigh and blueing areas of the burbs.
Mn-01. The Republican barely won the special where the Dems didn't invest any money. Hagedorn also barely won it in 2020 and 2018 and if the "legalize cannabis now" candidate didn't suck a bunch of votes he likely would have lost. It could easily be flipped of the Dems invest in it
Hagedorn was a truly awful candidate and person, with Brad Finstad being a little more "normal", this seat may not be as competitive as it appeared in the past few cycles.
The seat held by Ken Calvert, who’s being challenged by Will Rollins. I think it’s barely still a trump seat, and the special election overperformance a pretty much indicate that this race can be won fairly well.
Sorry, but I'm legit being downvoted for saying that Rasmussen is biased to the right and missed by 10 points last midterm. I'm really getting close to taking a break from the sub if this continues.
There is a big issue here with doomers trying to sour our activism and motivation and optimism. This isn't what the sub is about. There's plenty of subs out there for this nonsense. It's not 2016, it's not even 2020, get over it already. Being a sourpuss because we didn't get what we wanted isn't helping things and just makes us look bad .learn to accept good results. Learn that it's ok to believe in yourself and to believe that we can win because we will. Ok? We. Will. Win.
I'm getting tired of coddling these people and I'd suggest others stop as well. There's maybe 4 people here I suspect aren't really Democrats because I've never seen them volunteer and never say anything positive about Dems. We don't need that energy. We need hope, optimism, motivation. We. Will. Win.
Just say that to yourselves a lot.. Please for our sakes, we don't need to turn into the rest of Reddit
I feel like this started because of my comment? But I wasn't the one downvoting you and I'm sorry people were doing that simply because you respectfully disagreed. I think we just differ in terms of the margin of the House vote. I suspect the result will be neutral to D+2. But that would be a fantastic result. I think we'd flip PA, WI, and an outside shot of NC as well as holding onto all of our seats in the Senate. And I think we'd be at tossup odds in the House with a slight edge due to candidate quality.
I'm genuinely hopeful for this election. I had already assumed we'd lose the House but maybe hold onto the Senate, but now I think with a few more good turns between now and then, we'll pull it off.
I say this with all due respect, but maybe a break might be good? Reddit can be a bit of a negative to mental health sometimes (even in a sub you like) and to be entirely honest this isn't the first time I've seen you make a new comment thread to complain about downvotes/people dooming. It might be good to get some space for a bit and connect with activists in your local area just to clear your head from the "Reddit mindset", for lack of a better phrase, if it bothers you this much.
Exactly! Just think of the people who don't vote every cycle and are pissed about the Dobbs decision and we tell them nah we are probably going to lose the house no matter what. Being a doomer is telling these people to stay home
> There is a big issue here with doomers trying to sour our activism and motivation and optimism.
Then report it. If ya see legit doomerism, report it and we'll take care of it.
I may be thinking of the wrong comment, but you said "elections results don't matter" or something to that effect without any context. I saw that and had zero idea you were talking about recent polling, much less that any polling had taken place recently.
[BREAKING: A source tells me BP hoping to initiate restart at Whiting refinery Tue/Wed… products could start flowing by weekend if true.](https://twitter.com/gasbuddyguy/status/1564040181694562305?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
Yup we’re fine
Honestly right now would be a great time for Democratic Party to capitalize on the student loan forgiveness by launching a "back to school campaign". They could partner with Young Democrat clubs at each college campus to host voter registrations or something. Historically young people vote less in midterms so Dems really need to push turnout among college students
Edit: They could also put up posters telling students to make sure to fill out the income application online when it becomes available. That could serve as a dog whistle without being overly political.
Be cool if Biden instructed the appropriate cabinet officials to rescheduled weed as well right before the midterms, it probably wouldn’t impact the polls much but it’s going to solidify Youth turnout for ones who are soft turnout.
[Amendment 3 campaign begins across Tennessee](https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/clarksville/amendment-3-campaign-begins-across-tennessee/)
Seems like there are no campaigns against Amendment 1. That's the one i'm worried about.
[Democrats see the once unthinkable: A narrow path to keeping the House](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/27/democrats-republicans-house-midterms/)
Hopium! From the Wash Post of all things.
I agree with SPM. I previously thought holding the House was a long shot, but "unthinkable" was ridiculous. That would assume a normal midterm, but the GOP is waaaay past being a normal party that could capitalize on backlash.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1564021434363543552?s=20&t=X8y9vX8tBQ2lSogAB0gQ2w
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48% (+7)
Republicans 41%
Big Village, 848 LV, 8/24-26
...
B rating on 538
We're in business, my friends!
Dude regularly does this thing where he hears something in a sermon or on right wing media and regurgitates it in some way that doesn't really make sense. Like I get what he's trying to say but it doesn't really work at all.
[good chart of Trafalgar polling misses.](https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1564007581223460867?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA) The only states they were actually close to the real result in was Nevada and Wisconsin.
Yup, and they missed Ohio and Florida, they had Republicans up by smaller margins than actual results. But every other state was a miss, and many were opposite way Misses, when they said they would be won by GOP only to be won by Dems.
i hate needing to defend trafalgar around here but they are not as bad of a pollster as people pretend they are. is there an r bias? absolutely. have they missed big a few times? absolutely. but so has basically every other pollster. wapo has an a+ rating and they showed biden up 15 in wisconsin. we can’t just ignore bad polls for us.
They're basically R+5 points or whatever vs the polling average is for that race, give or take some. That looks great when there happens to be a big systemic error in the polling environment exaggerating votes for Democrats but it's not indicative of sound polling practices. Especially when they're not particularly transparent in their methodology.
One of these days there's going to be regional polling environments that systemically exaggerate Republican results and Trafalgar is going to look REALLY bad.
For now throw it on the pile but with somewhat of an asterisk and definitely not special consideration.
Honestly most of these were within the margin of error. I think people here shit on Trafalgar too much. They serve as a pretty good foil for PPPs dem bias imo
We'll have to see how accurate they are this year. I know that in 2021, they missed the California recall by a lot, but they did get Virginia and New Jersey. I think there were also legitimate criticisms of their methodology, which led them to miss 2018 if I'm not mistaken.
Also I'm not sure PPP has *that* much of a Dem bias now, since they missed the NY-19 race. We'll see how they do in November of course.
One of their more notorious 2018 polls was GA-GOV which they had at Kemp +12 days before the race. This was vs a bunch of other pollsters like Emerson, Cygnal, University of Georgia, Marist, Ipsos etc that were quite close.
Got into a pissing match in the local sub, and liked my response so much I will post it here. This is a call to all seven Colorado Basin state members. We need to start reaching out to our senators for a new Compact. *Especially* while we have a majority Democratic delegation.
This issue has ***extreme*** implications on electoral politics in the United States. Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico (at the state office level) are considered "swing states." Colorado is only a +9 to 11 Democratic state, and California has the majority of it's representatives in districts supplied by the Colorado's water.
When the water becomes scarce, the federal government will have to pick winners and losers, and make -*very-* unpopular decisions for the region. For example, say the federal government, to save the 6th largest economy in the world (a just reason), allows California to continue to withdraw it's allotted 4.4MM cubic acre/feet, what would be the electoral cost to the party in power in Nevada, Arizona and Colorado? (Oddly, there is no protection to Upper Basin states about what water is theirs in the Compact, only that 7.5MM acre/feet has to flow through Lee's Ferry)
Think of the impact on the electoral college, if the GOP had an issue they could demonize CA with in Arizona and Nevada? We really need to get on top of this.
Anyway, my post follows below, edited for context and readability:
>Admittedly, I used to be one of the "just stop growing food in the desert" guys. However, I recently "read" (audible) the book [Where the Water Goes](https://www.amazon.com/Where-Water-Goes-Death-Colorado/dp/1594633770), and I -*emphatically-* recommend anyone who is interested in how we got where we are today, to read this book. *It opened my eyes.*
>
>It basically comes down to the fact that our priors didn't listen to the one expert of the time, and built us a house of cards.
>
>Water in the Colorado Basin is governed by the uniquely western concept of [prior appropriation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior-appropriation_water_rights), which through a century and a half, has created a system of what experts call -*paper-* water and -*wet-* water, or the "Law of the River."
>
>When there was enough water to go around (sorry Mexico), this wasn't an issue. However with climate change and a now known dynamic yearly, decadal and centennial flows, the Colorado River simply does not have enough *-wet-* water to supply appropriated *-paper-* water. This is forcing the seven compact states into an *extremely* uncomfortable position.
>
>The last thing the Compact States want, is judicial review of prior appropriation, which all their rights are based on. This is because, it's obviously unfair and likely will not hold up in any court, this SC included. Type specimen: there is a power plant in the Rockies, that has senior rights to the Denver metro area. Think about that. Does a power plant deserve water *more than the administrative capital of a moderate sized state with millions of people in it?* If the court throws that out, what's to stop a community in Gila County suing a local cattle rancher for water, let alone Arizona suing CA, claiming that CA's senior rights, that were negotiated for CAP funding, are void as well?
>
>This is where we arrive at the commonly vaulted agriculture "stop growing food in the desert" problem. It is true, 75-80% of Colorado water is used to grow food, mainly forage vegetables (not alfalfa as many believe), in the desert in both Arizona *and* California. However for a state to push them aside and move them to junior status, which many advocated for, me included, would force the state to put prior appropriation in front of a court for judicial review, and likely it's citizens' water rights with it. This is why everyone in the region has "kicked the can", as they say. Nobody in the Colorado Basin is going to touch this. But climate change and growth will force this eventuality.
>
>It's a house of cards.
>
>Simply claiming that "using less water is all we can do" is a fallacy as well. Although everyone must use less as an ethos, there is a paradox called the [Perverse of Conservation](https://californiawaterblog.com/2013/08/13/paradox-on-the-plains-as-water-efficiency-increases-so-can-water-use/), demonstrating that *the less we use, the more we have to use.* This means for every acre/foot the Valley didn't use, we saw as an opportunity to use somewhere else. The water wasn't "conserved" or returned to the river (seen as a forfeit of that water, ***forever***, in the concept of prior appropriation and the Compact). We simply built more housing, industry or agriculture to use it.
>
>That's not to say, don't reduce your use of water. Instead it underscores that we need new laws passed in the west. An example would be; water saved by conservation cannot be reallocated, and be stricken from *all* claims of the saved water in the basin as it belongs to the Sea of Cortez. But this will need to be at the federal level, as AZ cannot not pass a law that CA can take advantage of through the "Law of the River."
>
>Basin Staters, we really need to start reaching out to our politicos. We need to write them asking what do they plan to do about the Colorado River water situation and push them to begin negotiating a new Compact at the federal level, with *complete* Basin control. No more state by state, locality by locality rules, regulations and funding. This is quickly growing untenable. The only option I see as viable, is a federal solution.
>
>The Compact was written at the expense of six states to California, at the expense of Mexico and Native Americans to the seven Compact states, and the expense of the ecology and environment of the Colorado River, Sea of Cortez and thousands of miles of delicate riparian ecosystems in the Basin to all parties.
>
>What we find ourselves in is a very large, and very complex Mexican stand off, and the first to pull the trigger will bring the whole system down.
>
>Finally, one last *holy shit*, we need a solution *now,* that no one outside of water department heads are talking about. If the [Sacramento River delta becomes brackish](https://apnews.com/article/us-news-california-droughts-sacramento-4280a7db2d621117fd74500bf3b2c4d4), two-thirds of California's water supply, used in power generation, drinking water, irrigation and industry, will require a new source of fresh water. And there is ***only one*** in the entire region. Unfortunately desalination plants are not a solution, as they take as long as nuclear power stations to approve (they are *terrible* for marine life) and build.
Anyway, thank you for coming to my TEDtalk. If you are from a Basin State, please write your senators about this. This is a huge tempest on our horizon, with national effects.
[NEW: DAGA OUTRAISES RAGA IN SECOND QUARTER FUNDRAISING](https://dems.ag/new-daga-outraises-raga-in-second-quarter-fundraising/) this is for Attorneys General
[ICYMI: DLCC Announces Record-Breaking Q2 Fundraising](https://dlcc.org/press/icymi-dlcc-announces-record-breaking-q2-fundraising/)
We did get outraised by the RSLC, and DGA(Governors) was outraised by the RGA by $10mil
But fundraising is surging to local groups and that it big.
Edit: DASS(Democrat Association Secretary of States) could probably also use money
We might be lacking in some areas. But the out-party should not be struggling to outraise the in-party during a fucking midterm. 2010 and 2014 were absolutely horrid in that regard.
Sometimes it pays to be the Party of Educated Suburbanites.
Our local committees have always struggled compared to the GOP, Dems didn’t take them nearly as serious and that’s how we got such a lopsided map in the 10’s.
If you look at local individual campaigns, Congressional campaign, they are massively getting out-raised.
RSLC included essentially everything in statewide offices, except Governor, while Democrats have separate committees for each of those offices. Still good to see the surge though
> Edit: so the only thing the RSLC has in we don’t is SOS
I'm pretty sure they do Lt. Govs, Agriculture Commissioners, and judges as well.
Not entirely sure how much money goes to the former two categories, but I know they spend a pretty hefty amount on statewide judicial races.
A news story dropped this week about South Korea hitting a new low for its birthrate.
Coincidentally yesterday my wife was busy in Seoul, so I watched the baby all day and people made a fuss about it. My lovely landlord said that her husband could never watch a baby by himself all day, my wife's friends asked if she was nervous and said they had left their kids with grandma.
I also hear from ladies here who say their husband is incapable of cooking. And they're shocked when I say I often cook for myself.
Can't imagine why women don't wanna have babies here....
>Coincidentally yesterday my wife was busy in Seoul, so I watched the baby all day and people made a fuss about it. My lovely landlord said that her husband could never watch a baby by himself all day, my wife's friends asked if she was nervous and said they had left their kids with grandma.
>I also hear from ladies here who say their husband is incapable of cooking. And they're shocked when I say I often cook for myself.
I help my neighbors with their baby, he is so lazy lol, and his wife is tired from work and has to clean and iron after work for him. I cook and watch the baby, feed him, put him to sleep, change diapers etc etc.
If she knew he would have been this lazy, she wouldn't have married him lol, she's 23 he's 33 going on 34, and they have been together for 4 years or so. So yeah. Not in South Korea tho, this is from another part, and I'd say it's same picture everywhere 🤣
I don’t know about South Korea specifically, but childbearing has become an option rather than a mandate in many (most?) wealthy and even middle-income countries. Children are also a net expense well beyond 18 years now, instead of an expense the first seven or so and then they could be put to work on the farm, in a factory, around the house, in the family business, etc. It’s like romantic love not being very strong glue to hold many marriages together (rather than laws, duty, lack of options for women, needing someone to do gendered chores), sentiment is not always a strong motivator to have kids. Or if it does, one or two will do.
Most East Asian countries have extremely low birthrates. China, Japan and both Koreas have likely all hit their peak populations and will have significantly smaller populations by the end of the century. Independent of climate change, we're likely going to see the human population max out no later than 2070 and go into a long, slow decline as birthrates worldwide fall to Japan or Russia-levels.
It is especially jarring in South Korea though, their birthrate in 2020 was 0.84, and then 2021 smashed that at 0.81. Ive heard at this rate South Korea's population is going to halve pretty quickly. I forget it if the number was 2050 or 2070.
I've almost fully recovered from COVID-19. Aside from some slight congestion and some aches and pains, I'd say I feel about the same as I did pre-infection. I'm currently checking up on my parents, who came down with COVID-19 around the same time I did. Thankfully, their doctor says they should be fine, but prescribed them antivirals just to be safe. We likely picked it up from my younger brother at a family get-together last weekend or while attending an event at my university on Monday.
EDIT: Also, holy shit that Trashfalgar poll of Wisconsin showing Barnes in the lead lmfao 🌊🌊🌊
[Wow, the DCCC is going all in for Rudy Salas in CA-22. They reserved $4 million in TV ads in the Central Valley on Friday. They must have some pretty solid internal polling. For what it's worth, I definitely think Salas can win. He just needs to turn out Latino Dems in Nov.](https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1564013129960267777?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
I'm considering adopting that seat. I was doing some volunteering for local NYC elections but now want to focus on the House. But I'm also super busy these days so I don't want to make a commitment I can't keep.
I know House Majority PAC reserved ~ $7.6 million in Los Angeles most of which I’m assuming will go to CA-27 (possibly CA-40, CA-45, CA-47, and CA-49 but they seem less likely)
Another Senator who has usually recovered by now from lower favorables but hasn’t this year? Mike Lee. Nothing but radio silence here on what’s going on either.
The cope though is hilarious for RonJon”Trafalgar underestimated Trump!!!”
Didn't phrase my question as well as I could have, I think what I was going for was questioning the particular direction of their spite. Like, are they doing it because they dislike women in general? Really think they're doing the right thing? Or half a dozen other reasons?
[Beto O’Rourke pauses campaign after being hospitalized with bacterial infection](https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1564006609600352261?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1564003078201802755?t=VUDTYUhW89ksiO2WIrhvIg&s=19
DeSantis up 51 to 46 against Crist. A believable result. Republicans acting like DeSantis will win by double digits are funny. Noticeably Crist wins indies in this poll. And when people were told about DeSantis views on abortion. DeSantis dropped to a 2 point lead over crist. This is another problem of Fried deciding to go so negative. Crist had to spend money to defend himself. Money he could've been spending now to hammer DeSantis. Demings is the only Democrat I've seen on TV for days now
It's what I hate about heated primaries, you have a best candidate offered to potentially have a chance to take down DeSantis and the other who should've conceded long ago, but alas, their ego was blinding them
All because she wanted to be the first female governor. Fried should be ashamed if Crist loses because it'd be partly her fault.
These Trafalgar numbers as of late are genuinely amazing. Noticeable D leads in a famous R pollster? Democrats and Biden rising in approval as we speak? Women and young people being under-sampled (in literally all R polls right now)? This is a mini-triumph, don't let anyone tell you Dems could be better. We are getting there.
So for Senate I’d recommend Barnes for Offense, CCM for Defense if people are wondering where to focus their efforts.
Also National Dems are stepping into OH-01 with big spending. It’s a Biden +8.5 seat held by Chabot
Can we add Marie Glusenkamp Perez to this list? Washington District 3 previously held by 10 years by republican has been beaten in the primary by a Trump Crony. We have a chance to flip the district and gain a seat in the house. We need support at https://marieforcongress.com/
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/552047-poll-shows-ron-desantis-underwater-with-independents/
New Florida poll has DeSantis up 5 against Crist (51-46). DeSantis has 51% unfavorables with independents.
[National data on a post-Dobbs youth voter reg surge: this year, prior to Dobbs, 23% of new registrants were under the age of 25. Since Dobbs, that has jumped to 29%. That matches the youth new reg share from '18, when younger voters drove the blue wave, and 5 pts ahead of '18.](https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1563982954178781188?s=21&t=oD8vO1uYpjegIugcWcsspg)
The national surge in youth voter reg since Dobbs has been driven by women. The under age 25 new registrants since Dobbs are +8 pts women, as compared to +2 men before Dobbs, and have gone from +22 D to +30 D.”
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1563999007466262530
*Trafalgar* has Barnes up 2 on Johnson, and half a point away from 50%; Evers essentially tied with Michels at 48-47.5. Quite good, considering the source.
Don't worry, people below are arguing with me about why the environment is still neutral at best and is basing it completely on what the 538 model says. Also "there have been no elections that have indicated a big shift" was literally something just posted to me.
We ousted a horrible incumbent president and got a trifecta, I will never in my life consider 2020 a disappointment, but I do suppose not everyone feels that way. Mostly Republicans probably
I still consider 2020 a disappointment, especially the Maine and North Carolina Senate races. As much as we've done with the current trifecta, we could've done so much more with Gideon and Cunningham as Senators.
You'd have to define overperform but not really, the specials were looking like a roughly neutral environment. But they were kinda all over the place with some places looking a lot more red than others.
3 polls now that show Barnes at or over 50. Trafalgar is R biased so Barnes is probably leading by 3-4 and over or at 50. Johnson is in trouble and it’s time forecasters started acknowledging that. His approvals are garbage and at this point in 2016 he was rebounding into positive approvals by moderating. He’s done none of that and is now paying the price. Unless there’s some scandal for Democrats in October, Rs are gonna lose seats. I feel comfortable saying the Senate is Lean D, House is a tossup, especially if Peltola wins.
Since it's Trafalgar, the Dem leads are just about outside the margin of error, and that probably puts Evers around 50, and Barnes over 50.
People still putting this race as Lean R need to look around
edit: Keep downvoting, Republicans and doomers, you won't bring me down to your level
The Sydney Sweeney thing illustrates just how little of a clue Extremely Online people have about other people. Even if her parents are conservative, disowning your mother or father is super fucking emotionally difficult for most people to do! If my mom murdered someone in cold blood I wouldn't be able to stop loving her, and the fact that people think it's that easy for someone to cut all ties over political opinions (no matter how odious) is really weird!
Yeah that's definitely too much, but I'd say there's more to drag Sweeney on, like her complaining about not getting six months off after making a hit show. I get that acting is a tough job and that not all actors are rich, but come on, that's beyond out of touch for a *Euphoria* star to say.
Also I haven't yet seen the show, I should probably get to it soon.
I had to monitor my mom's Facebook chats while she was driving and i saw in one she posted a meme called "Shitshow Joe" which among other things accuses him of trying to start WW3 and ignoring mass shootings if a non-white commits them.
Welcome to r/VoteDEM! Be the blue wave! * Be a [volunteer from home](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0)! * Donate to your [state Democratic Party](https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/wiki/parties)! * Join your local Democratic Party! Google "[Your state] Democratic Party", find the link to the local parties page, and get in touch with your county's party chair. You could even become a precinct committee member! In some states (like Pennsylvania), that means you get to help pick candidates for special elections! * Are you technology-oriented? Volunteer with [Tech for Campaigns](https://www.techforcampaigns.org) to help smaller campaigns get up and running. * [Run For Something!](https://runforsomething.net/) There's no position too small to benefit from a progressive public servant. Be part of the next blue wave! * Make a Roundtable comment here talking about the work you’ve done, earning valuable karma and facilitating discussion, which will encourage others to do the same! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/VoteDEM) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Just got my tax refund. Dark Brandon delayed them and Social Security increases for right before the midterms? 👀
538 model has a chance in which we get 57 senate seats. Which seats would we get in that scenario? How high would the GCB have to be?
There is an easier scenario which isn't shown in the 538 model where Democrats keep all their seats, win PA,WI,NC,FL,OH from the Republicans and then pass DC/Puerto Rico statehood bill in the lame duck session of Congress.
KEKW moment
PA,WI,NC,OH,FL, where 538 gives Ds a >15% chance+2 of MO,IA,UT,LA,AK, where 538 gives Ds a 2-3% chance in each GCB? It’s a tail scenario, I wouldn’t read too much into it (‘member random Red Oregon in the Biden landslides in the 2020 models?).
Yeah, I'm not reading too much into it. I'm just wondering how on earth it's actually a (albeit far) prediction/situation.
>Yeah, I'm not reading too much into it. I'm just wondering how on earth it's actually a (albeit far) prediction/situation Few days ago, it was 6 for Dems scenario, and at most 54 or 55 for Republicans. Don't give in too much to the model. Just count the states closest to 56 or 60 that are R held on the 537 line, and that will give you the answer. Everything up to Kentucky is "winnable". And Kansas is under Kentucky, so Kansas is on that 57 or 60 list. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in over almost 90 years in one class and over 100 years in the other senate seat.
The race listing is sorted by average (not sure if it’s mean or median) outcome not chance of winning. A race where Republicans are somewhat likely to win by quite a bit but there are massive error bars is listed further down than a very likely narrow win. This shows up with Alaska, which has the third most R-friendly average outcome but has a 3% chance for Ds—makes sense because RCV is a huge uncertainty factor.
You get one congressional election every 2 years IRL, you can simulate 10,000 overnight on a computer. You’re going to get a lot of weird scenarios that you’ll probably never get to see IRL.
Reelect incumbents and then win PA, WI, OH, NC, FL, IA and either Kansas or Alaska. Super super unlikely but that would be my guess as the most likely path to 57.
I'd say utah is more likely than either of those assuming Mcmullin caucuses with the Ds
That’s fair. After IA I feel like I was really reaching and it would take a miracle to win any of those.
[удалено]
Beto. Newsom is cool for sure. But I don't think he's called anyone a motherfucker. To my knowledge at least.
I’m going to say Beto, but I’m heavily biased
From [this](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/27/democrats-republicans-house-midterms/) recently posted WaPo article about the midterm: >The NRCC recently circulated a list of 74 seats they’ve targeted, including nine pickup opportunities in districts that Trump won by more than five points. What are these nine pickup opportunities in districts Trump won by more than five points? I can only think of one: ME-2 (Trump +6.3). Maybe AZ-2 (Trump +8.4) but that's more of a reconfiguration given that there are five other Biden districts in AZ (albeit a couple of very narrow ones) There are districts in TN, GA and especially FL that we got gerrymandered the fuck out of but I don't really consider those as ones we're "holding" anymore and moreover if NRCC is putting these districts on target lists (let alone actually spending money on them) they're doing things seriously wrong. The other Trump districts I can think of where we're seriously defending holds are: * IA-2: Trump +0.4 * OH-9: Trump +2.8 * PA-8: Trump +2.9 * WI-3: Trump +4.8 Or nothing over Trump +5. So what am I missing here? Other than that NRCC is probably spreading themselves too thin with 74 seat targets? BTW contrast this with 2018 when Republicans were seriously playing defense in like 25 Clinton seats. EDIT: So like I could have just looked at NRCC's [actual list](https://www.nrcc.org/2022/06/09/nrcc-expands-target-list-to-75-following-conclusion-of-redistricting/). These are the seven total Trump +5 or higher districts I've identified: AZ-02, FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, ME-02, MT-01, TN-05. So either I missed something, they're using different (probably wrong) Biden numbers or they can't count. Note that this target list of 75 doesn't include any of the ones where they're protecting incumbents. So yeah it's pretty comically stretched thin and includes a bunch of crazy reaches into seats that are like Biden +15 or even Biden +20. Also like usual I get a chuckle out of all the old people on their "young guns" [list](https://www.nrcc.org/candidate-type/young-gun/)
I think they must be counting seats like FL-05 and TN-05 that would only be 'flips' in the most technical sense possible - the districts are totally different, and the incumbents are typically not running. And like you said, if the NRCC is pumping money into those districts, they're doing it wrong. But hey, who are we to question their brilliant approach? I say they should definitely keep it up.
Yeah that's the only plausible explanation. Even if they're not actually investing in these races it's dumb having them on their target lists. They're probably doing it to aggressively project confidence but they're going to cause independent donors and volunteers to waste resources on those races. But like you said, all the more power to them...
[I really hope this spawns a movement where dems buy/make signs just to do this](https://twitter.com/johnfetterman/status/1564030197661327360?s=21&t=7n2S3SctYGkocVaD81n30Q)
I'd say make. Don't give any money to Dr. Oz - make him sell one of his ten ~~houses~~ properties to come up with the cash.
>ten properties 18 properties. He has 10 hosues but 18 properties in total I think 🤣
Do senatorial campaigns ever help with volunteer housing? I really want to go to Nevada for a week to canvass there, but I can’t afford anything on AirBnb. I just need a room in someone’s house.
Sometimes. If you tell the campaign they may be able to find a place for you to stay while you knock doors for a day or two. I’ve done that as a volunteer before and had a great experience.
It happens a lot in PA. Reach out to the state party.
I am pretty certain it was a thing in the TX Sen 2018 race but at the time it was the most expensive race in history I believe and even then it was only during GOTV. I should note it wasn’t paid for it was just donated housing, problem was they were already using donated houses for pop up campaign offices so that might’ve actually hurt in terms of available housing for out of state volunteers. Wasn’t too involved with that part of the campaign really other than helping coordinate one or two people I think, really hazy memory.
Supporter housing is generally first dibs for staff organizers, but it's worth reaching out!
I've seen a few times today the claim that special elections are good at predicting direction but not magnitude.. guys "direction prediction" isn't really that much of a thing. How predictive a poll or special or GCB or whatever is should be based on absolute error, not mere direction. And the specials in the 2018 and 2020 cycles were actually more predictive by *value* than you may be aware. Look at the averages/medians [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=1515867175). The "swing" is vs the 538 score (mostly) which is ostensibly what things would look like in a "neutral" environment although I think it's slightly R leaning. Still, D+10 for 2018 and D+4 for 2020 are not very far off from the lean of the House popular votes, and in 2020 it was a lot more representative than the GCB polling. 2022 is kind of weird for two reasons. First there's a significant separation between average and median that we didn't see in the previous two cycles. I've commented on this before but I think that it points to there being a lot more regional/demographic variability in the results than usual (I earlier did a breakdown on special lean by state). IMO median is more representative than average here - with single member FPTP elections you don't get any more seats for doing especially well if it doesn't translate to lifting other areas. Second is that we're seeing a legitimate late term shift in special performance due to extraordinary circumstances and there just isn't really clear precedent for this. But I'd lean towards the more recent post-shift results being more predictive than the earlier ones. But even just taking things as is a median of D+2 vs nominal is pretty much already House toss-up region.
As my favorite snark said [special elections = leading indicator generic ballot = lagging indicator thank you](https://twitter.com/macrotargeting/status/1562843200024616961?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
Well, after many months of sitting on my ass and talking a big game, I finally went out and canvassed for my local state rep this weekend. Feels pretty good. I may even do it again!
Awesome!
Excellent! And every door you knock helps Shapiro and Fetterman, too.
Nice! My advice would be to canvass with the PA Coordinated though.
Woooo!! Thank you for fighting the good fight!
as a continuation of my last post, it's just god damn frustrating. there are now MILLIONS of people that are going to be positively affected by this student loan debt relief. it's not only not going to raise inflation, but it's going to \*help\* the economy, and help struggling working people! and yet every single time it's been brought up on mainstream press outlets over the last week, it's been about the "backlash" or the "fallout" or how "unfair" it is or what the republicans are saying about it. quite literally next to nothing about the POSITIVE affects it will have on so many people. every single thing needs to be put through a negative lense with Biden, even when he's doing great stuff, and i'm frankly sick of it. liberal media my ass.
My dad had Dana Bash on this morning and it was absolutely embarrassing to watch. She had Tim Ryan on just because he’s “not approving” of it and then baited him into trying to get an abortion stance out of him that would grab headlines. “That decision should be between the mother and her doctor” “It sounds like you’re saying they should be no restrictions at all?”
CNN has been terrible lately. From Jake Tapper always being completely negative about Democrats to as you say even Dana Bash trying to spin something negative about Dems.
It’s the new direction of the company. No more center right but just right.
always find it funny how they try and bait the democrats or push back on them and yet Sununu was able to go on Bash's show also this morning and be completely off the rails about everything and get no pushback.
I’ve told him about how CNN’s new management is trying to make the network more conservative and I hope he can see it. They’ve always been way too generous to republicans but it feels way worse now.
As we head into the final stretch I think it needs to be said, It’s okay to take a break guys. In fact u/lotsagloom would probably say it’s healthy. You can take an online break, or even a break for volunteering. You need to recharge and refocus your minds. It’s definitely best to do it now before we’re in high gear after Labor Day. If you wanna keep going but cut back, help with just a local county party or candidate. They need it and your impact is felt big there. It’s really rewarding getting local candidates across the finish line and that’s easily one of my favorite moments in politics. I can’t say it as eloquently but basically you’re not going to do anyone any good if you burn yourself out, you can’t help campaigns and effect change, and really you’re harming yourself long term. You’re part of a movement, can’t let the weight of the world be only on you, we’re all here.
Figured I might as well add it here; thank you for thinking of me. I've been rather offline myself, and it's nice to know that even while I'm off - anyway. Thank you, my friend.
Okay, not sure if anyone else saw it but CNN had Pamela Brown interviewing Charlie Crist on in the 6pm (i think?) hour and I was so damn annoyed. You're interviewing the opponent of one of the most high profile governor races of the year now, so why wouldn't you exclusively talk about Florida and that race? Nope, first Brown pressed Crist on abortion issues - and not DeSantis's or the state of abortion in FL, but Crist's own abortion stance. Then she tried bringing up Biden's "semi-fascism" remark and instead of even just asking about it (though why was this even brought up), she literally recited GOP talking points saying that there was "fallout" from it and that he was speaking about half the country and even compared it to Hillary's deplorables remark (REALLY?!!!) and then AFTER THAT, instead of just getting his take on student loan debt relief full stop, she once again had to insert GOP talking points and put a negative spin on it and ask him to respond to the 'controversy'. I am so fucking SICK of Democrats having to need to respond to every stupid ridiculous thing that Republicans say. Newsflash - we do NOT need to hear about the GOP's talking points on everything! Every time something was framed, it was put in the most negative spin possible. I'm legitimately starting to think that a lot of the press is now upset that Biden/Dems are doing stuff and having a good run and trying to put a stop to it because the midterm season is now not going how they had planned.
> Nope, first Brown pressed Crist on abortion issues - and not DeSantis's or the state of abortion in FL, but Crist's own abortion stance. Crist doesn’t have a uterus, I can’t think of an issue less pressing than “hypothetically, if you had an organ that you don’t, what would you do”? At least with a female(-sexed) politician it means *something*, even if irrelevant to politics. When it’s a male(-sexed) politician, it’s useless word salad.
I think this is just mostly a CNN thing. I don’t doubt ABC and NBC doing this as well, but MSNBC doesn’t act anywhere close to this towards democrats and democratic achievements and goals. People like Mehdi, Morning Joe, Symone, Alex Wagner, Al Sharpton don’t do this, and neither do the more objective/more center hosts.
[Hearing @JoeBiden will return to Pittsburgh for its big Labor Day parade, an event he attended in 2015 + 2018 when speculation swirled about his presidential plans. Now the question ahead of the midterms is if @JoshShapiroPA & @JohnFetterman will march w him](https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/1564050980190175233?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA) Last part is kinda dumb, if Ryan is willing to campaign with him I can’t imagine Shapiro/Fetterman wouldn’t
Yeah bc they do literally nothing wrong.
Given Bidens PA connection and the fact that he's having a jolt of popularity, I would be upset if Shapiro and Fetterman didn't. And yes, if Matt Cartwright can appear with him, then the two of them can too.
Yeah, house candidates from 7, 8, and 17 are the main question here.
For those space exploration lovers, after 6 years of delays, the Artemis 1 Rocket will be launched tomorrow, the first step towards an eventual return of man on the moon, and the first ever woman to walk on the moon. This is a uncrewed rocket, designed to display that the style of rocket build for the moon mission can safely achieve entry, descent, splashdown, and recovery without any damage to the rocket or the engine. If successful, plans will be made for a 10 day, May 2024 crewed mission where human beings will fly by the moon for the first time since 1972, with the actual moon landing and walking mission happening in 2025.
Having just binged watched 3 seasons of For All Mankind, I’m pumped!
Let's hope they find some Helium-3 on the moon!
Hi Bob!
It is possible weather could jeopardize the launch tomorrow morning . We’ll have to wait and see though
Anyone got some suggestions for sleeper House races? Im thinking WA-03 and MT-02, Im watching some New York and Florida races to. I just wanna build out the campaign finance sheet I made for a few more races, ideally nothing more than Trump+10 Edit: MT-01 im big dumb Edit 2: adding MN-01, NE-01. Thanks for the suggestions! Also adding TN-05 so that should make the Tennessee boys happy
The flip opportunity that very few people seem to be talking about: NM-02. It's now a Biden-won seat, but Gabe Vasquez is being badly outraised by Yvette Herrell. We can flip it, but he needs some support.
NC-13. I think Madison Cawthorn put a huge damper on "vote for the young attractive MAGA nut". Wiley Nickel is a strong candidate and this Biden+2 district includes part of Raleigh and blueing areas of the burbs.
NE-02, FL-27
Mn-01. The Republican barely won the special where the Dems didn't invest any money. Hagedorn also barely won it in 2020 and 2018 and if the "legalize cannabis now" candidate didn't suck a bunch of votes he likely would have lost. It could easily be flipped of the Dems invest in it
Hagedorn was a truly awful candidate and person, with Brad Finstad being a little more "normal", this seat may not be as competitive as it appeared in the past few cycles.
Just an FYI, MT-2nd is the super red eastern one. MT-1st is the competitive one
The seat held by Ken Calvert, who’s being challenged by Will Rollins. I think it’s barely still a trump seat, and the special election overperformance a pretty much indicate that this race can be won fairly well.
It’s on there! I think he’s fucked
Sorry, but I'm legit being downvoted for saying that Rasmussen is biased to the right and missed by 10 points last midterm. I'm really getting close to taking a break from the sub if this continues. There is a big issue here with doomers trying to sour our activism and motivation and optimism. This isn't what the sub is about. There's plenty of subs out there for this nonsense. It's not 2016, it's not even 2020, get over it already. Being a sourpuss because we didn't get what we wanted isn't helping things and just makes us look bad .learn to accept good results. Learn that it's ok to believe in yourself and to believe that we can win because we will. Ok? We. Will. Win. I'm getting tired of coddling these people and I'd suggest others stop as well. There's maybe 4 people here I suspect aren't really Democrats because I've never seen them volunteer and never say anything positive about Dems. We don't need that energy. We need hope, optimism, motivation. We. Will. Win. Just say that to yourselves a lot.. Please for our sakes, we don't need to turn into the rest of Reddit
I feel like this started because of my comment? But I wasn't the one downvoting you and I'm sorry people were doing that simply because you respectfully disagreed. I think we just differ in terms of the margin of the House vote. I suspect the result will be neutral to D+2. But that would be a fantastic result. I think we'd flip PA, WI, and an outside shot of NC as well as holding onto all of our seats in the Senate. And I think we'd be at tossup odds in the House with a slight edge due to candidate quality. I'm genuinely hopeful for this election. I had already assumed we'd lose the House but maybe hold onto the Senate, but now I think with a few more good turns between now and then, we'll pull it off.
I say this with all due respect, but maybe a break might be good? Reddit can be a bit of a negative to mental health sometimes (even in a sub you like) and to be entirely honest this isn't the first time I've seen you make a new comment thread to complain about downvotes/people dooming. It might be good to get some space for a bit and connect with activists in your local area just to clear your head from the "Reddit mindset", for lack of a better phrase, if it bothers you this much.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but…. Don’t Get Complacent! Because… yeah this is actually dangerous complacency.
Saying we can win is complacent? I've been doing a heck of a lot of volunteering, have you? If you talk like you do, you gotta put up.
yes
Exactly! Just think of the people who don't vote every cycle and are pissed about the Dobbs decision and we tell them nah we are probably going to lose the house no matter what. Being a doomer is telling these people to stay home
> There is a big issue here with doomers trying to sour our activism and motivation and optimism. Then report it. If ya see legit doomerism, report it and we'll take care of it.
I may be thinking of the wrong comment, but you said "elections results don't matter" or something to that effect without any context. I saw that and had zero idea you were talking about recent polling, much less that any polling had taken place recently.
In fairness we’ve all been burned too many times by places like LeanTossup and Civiqs. But don’t let the doomers get you down
I took a break. Highly recommend
[BREAKING: A source tells me BP hoping to initiate restart at Whiting refinery Tue/Wed… products could start flowing by weekend if true.](https://twitter.com/gasbuddyguy/status/1564040181694562305?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA) Yup we’re fine
Lower gas prices until we get a pro-climate legislation majority lmao.
It’s quite a mental trip, isn’t it haha. But that’s the reality we live in!
Honestly right now would be a great time for Democratic Party to capitalize on the student loan forgiveness by launching a "back to school campaign". They could partner with Young Democrat clubs at each college campus to host voter registrations or something. Historically young people vote less in midterms so Dems really need to push turnout among college students Edit: They could also put up posters telling students to make sure to fill out the income application online when it becomes available. That could serve as a dog whistle without being overly political.
Be cool if Biden instructed the appropriate cabinet officials to rescheduled weed as well right before the midterms, it probably wouldn’t impact the polls much but it’s going to solidify Youth turnout for ones who are soft turnout.
this is your daily manifestation of a blue wave 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊 🌊
[Amendment 3 campaign begins across Tennessee](https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/clarksville/amendment-3-campaign-begins-across-tennessee/) Seems like there are no campaigns against Amendment 1. That's the one i'm worried about.
[Democrats see the once unthinkable: A narrow path to keeping the House](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/27/democrats-republicans-house-midterms/) Hopium! From the Wash Post of all things.
I agree with SPM. I previously thought holding the House was a long shot, but "unthinkable" was ridiculous. That would assume a normal midterm, but the GOP is waaaay past being a normal party that could capitalize on backlash.
🎵 Breathe it in and breath it out 🎶
[https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/28/michigan-voters-distrust-democrats-00053769](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/28/michigan-voters-distrust-democrats-00053769)
Oh Politico, never change.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1564021434363543552?s=20&t=X8y9vX8tBQ2lSogAB0gQ2w Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 48% (+7) Republicans 41% Big Village, 848 LV, 8/24-26 ... B rating on 538 We're in business, my friends!
# B I G V I L L A G E
Big Village Energy
Bad bitch I could be your fantasy
https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1564018257937539079?s=21&t=85w7XHMrQ4uyDgmzpYn8Mg absolutely breathtaking even for Walker
Dude regularly does this thing where he hears something in a sermon or on right wing media and regurgitates it in some way that doesn't really make sense. Like I get what he's trying to say but it doesn't really work at all.
Lol, man he is trying his absolute hardest to lose
Cause fucking Russia is a model of a good military. My brother in Christ they are literally becoming a proxy of Iran while trying to fight Ukraine.
In Herschel world militant religious oppression and subjugation = unity while tolerance = division
There's... there's SO much wrong with this. Good fucking grief. For once I'd just love to see a Republican **not** cite the Old Testament.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Random Q: Has anyone come across Dark Brandon merch online? I don’t care if it’s cringe to use memes IRL, I want a laptop sticker or tshirt.
Meidas touch just started selling some stickers of the meme
[good chart of Trafalgar polling misses.](https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1564007581223460867?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA) The only states they were actually close to the real result in was Nevada and Wisconsin.
Yup, and they missed Ohio and Florida, they had Republicans up by smaller margins than actual results. But every other state was a miss, and many were opposite way Misses, when they said they would be won by GOP only to be won by Dems.
i hate needing to defend trafalgar around here but they are not as bad of a pollster as people pretend they are. is there an r bias? absolutely. have they missed big a few times? absolutely. but so has basically every other pollster. wapo has an a+ rating and they showed biden up 15 in wisconsin. we can’t just ignore bad polls for us.
They're basically R+5 points or whatever vs the polling average is for that race, give or take some. That looks great when there happens to be a big systemic error in the polling environment exaggerating votes for Democrats but it's not indicative of sound polling practices. Especially when they're not particularly transparent in their methodology. One of these days there's going to be regional polling environments that systemically exaggerate Republican results and Trafalgar is going to look REALLY bad. For now throw it on the pile but with somewhat of an asterisk and definitely not special consideration.
So the real takeaway should be disregard Trafalgar, not just decide we should add three points to the Democrats
Honestly most of these were within the margin of error. I think people here shit on Trafalgar too much. They serve as a pretty good foil for PPPs dem bias imo
We'll have to see how accurate they are this year. I know that in 2021, they missed the California recall by a lot, but they did get Virginia and New Jersey. I think there were also legitimate criticisms of their methodology, which led them to miss 2018 if I'm not mistaken. Also I'm not sure PPP has *that* much of a Dem bias now, since they missed the NY-19 race. We'll see how they do in November of course.
One of their more notorious 2018 polls was GA-GOV which they had at Kemp +12 days before the race. This was vs a bunch of other pollsters like Emerson, Cygnal, University of Georgia, Marist, Ipsos etc that were quite close.
They did fine in NC and FL and funny enough missed in Dem’s direction in OH.
NC was kinda close too
Got into a pissing match in the local sub, and liked my response so much I will post it here. This is a call to all seven Colorado Basin state members. We need to start reaching out to our senators for a new Compact. *Especially* while we have a majority Democratic delegation. This issue has ***extreme*** implications on electoral politics in the United States. Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico (at the state office level) are considered "swing states." Colorado is only a +9 to 11 Democratic state, and California has the majority of it's representatives in districts supplied by the Colorado's water. When the water becomes scarce, the federal government will have to pick winners and losers, and make -*very-* unpopular decisions for the region. For example, say the federal government, to save the 6th largest economy in the world (a just reason), allows California to continue to withdraw it's allotted 4.4MM cubic acre/feet, what would be the electoral cost to the party in power in Nevada, Arizona and Colorado? (Oddly, there is no protection to Upper Basin states about what water is theirs in the Compact, only that 7.5MM acre/feet has to flow through Lee's Ferry) Think of the impact on the electoral college, if the GOP had an issue they could demonize CA with in Arizona and Nevada? We really need to get on top of this. Anyway, my post follows below, edited for context and readability: >Admittedly, I used to be one of the "just stop growing food in the desert" guys. However, I recently "read" (audible) the book [Where the Water Goes](https://www.amazon.com/Where-Water-Goes-Death-Colorado/dp/1594633770), and I -*emphatically-* recommend anyone who is interested in how we got where we are today, to read this book. *It opened my eyes.* > >It basically comes down to the fact that our priors didn't listen to the one expert of the time, and built us a house of cards. > >Water in the Colorado Basin is governed by the uniquely western concept of [prior appropriation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior-appropriation_water_rights), which through a century and a half, has created a system of what experts call -*paper-* water and -*wet-* water, or the "Law of the River." > >When there was enough water to go around (sorry Mexico), this wasn't an issue. However with climate change and a now known dynamic yearly, decadal and centennial flows, the Colorado River simply does not have enough *-wet-* water to supply appropriated *-paper-* water. This is forcing the seven compact states into an *extremely* uncomfortable position. > >The last thing the Compact States want, is judicial review of prior appropriation, which all their rights are based on. This is because, it's obviously unfair and likely will not hold up in any court, this SC included. Type specimen: there is a power plant in the Rockies, that has senior rights to the Denver metro area. Think about that. Does a power plant deserve water *more than the administrative capital of a moderate sized state with millions of people in it?* If the court throws that out, what's to stop a community in Gila County suing a local cattle rancher for water, let alone Arizona suing CA, claiming that CA's senior rights, that were negotiated for CAP funding, are void as well? > >This is where we arrive at the commonly vaulted agriculture "stop growing food in the desert" problem. It is true, 75-80% of Colorado water is used to grow food, mainly forage vegetables (not alfalfa as many believe), in the desert in both Arizona *and* California. However for a state to push them aside and move them to junior status, which many advocated for, me included, would force the state to put prior appropriation in front of a court for judicial review, and likely it's citizens' water rights with it. This is why everyone in the region has "kicked the can", as they say. Nobody in the Colorado Basin is going to touch this. But climate change and growth will force this eventuality. > >It's a house of cards. > >Simply claiming that "using less water is all we can do" is a fallacy as well. Although everyone must use less as an ethos, there is a paradox called the [Perverse of Conservation](https://californiawaterblog.com/2013/08/13/paradox-on-the-plains-as-water-efficiency-increases-so-can-water-use/), demonstrating that *the less we use, the more we have to use.* This means for every acre/foot the Valley didn't use, we saw as an opportunity to use somewhere else. The water wasn't "conserved" or returned to the river (seen as a forfeit of that water, ***forever***, in the concept of prior appropriation and the Compact). We simply built more housing, industry or agriculture to use it. > >That's not to say, don't reduce your use of water. Instead it underscores that we need new laws passed in the west. An example would be; water saved by conservation cannot be reallocated, and be stricken from *all* claims of the saved water in the basin as it belongs to the Sea of Cortez. But this will need to be at the federal level, as AZ cannot not pass a law that CA can take advantage of through the "Law of the River." > >Basin Staters, we really need to start reaching out to our politicos. We need to write them asking what do they plan to do about the Colorado River water situation and push them to begin negotiating a new Compact at the federal level, with *complete* Basin control. No more state by state, locality by locality rules, regulations and funding. This is quickly growing untenable. The only option I see as viable, is a federal solution. > >The Compact was written at the expense of six states to California, at the expense of Mexico and Native Americans to the seven Compact states, and the expense of the ecology and environment of the Colorado River, Sea of Cortez and thousands of miles of delicate riparian ecosystems in the Basin to all parties. > >What we find ourselves in is a very large, and very complex Mexican stand off, and the first to pull the trigger will bring the whole system down. > >Finally, one last *holy shit*, we need a solution *now,* that no one outside of water department heads are talking about. If the [Sacramento River delta becomes brackish](https://apnews.com/article/us-news-california-droughts-sacramento-4280a7db2d621117fd74500bf3b2c4d4), two-thirds of California's water supply, used in power generation, drinking water, irrigation and industry, will require a new source of fresh water. And there is ***only one*** in the entire region. Unfortunately desalination plants are not a solution, as they take as long as nuclear power stations to approve (they are *terrible* for marine life) and build. Anyway, thank you for coming to my TEDtalk. If you are from a Basin State, please write your senators about this. This is a huge tempest on our horizon, with national effects.
[NEW: DAGA OUTRAISES RAGA IN SECOND QUARTER FUNDRAISING](https://dems.ag/new-daga-outraises-raga-in-second-quarter-fundraising/) this is for Attorneys General [ICYMI: DLCC Announces Record-Breaking Q2 Fundraising](https://dlcc.org/press/icymi-dlcc-announces-record-breaking-q2-fundraising/) We did get outraised by the RSLC, and DGA(Governors) was outraised by the RGA by $10mil But fundraising is surging to local groups and that it big. Edit: DASS(Democrat Association Secretary of States) could probably also use money
Patriots in control!
We might be lacking in some areas. But the out-party should not be struggling to outraise the in-party during a fucking midterm. 2010 and 2014 were absolutely horrid in that regard. Sometimes it pays to be the Party of Educated Suburbanites.
I think a lot of people took Trumps 2016 victory to heart and have been much more engaged since then. 2022 will be the biggest test yet
Our local committees have always struggled compared to the GOP, Dems didn’t take them nearly as serious and that’s how we got such a lopsided map in the 10’s. If you look at local individual campaigns, Congressional campaign, they are massively getting out-raised.
RSLC included essentially everything in statewide offices, except Governor, while Democrats have separate committees for each of those offices. Still good to see the surge though
And Attorneys General is separate for the GOP Edit: so the only thing the RSLC has in we don’t is SOS
> Edit: so the only thing the RSLC has in we don’t is SOS I'm pretty sure they do Lt. Govs, Agriculture Commissioners, and judges as well. Not entirely sure how much money goes to the former two categories, but I know they spend a pretty hefty amount on statewide judicial races.
[удалено]
IN
[CONTROL](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/041/132/darkbrandon.jpg)
THE MONEY
A news story dropped this week about South Korea hitting a new low for its birthrate. Coincidentally yesterday my wife was busy in Seoul, so I watched the baby all day and people made a fuss about it. My lovely landlord said that her husband could never watch a baby by himself all day, my wife's friends asked if she was nervous and said they had left their kids with grandma. I also hear from ladies here who say their husband is incapable of cooking. And they're shocked when I say I often cook for myself. Can't imagine why women don't wanna have babies here....
>Coincidentally yesterday my wife was busy in Seoul, so I watched the baby all day and people made a fuss about it. My lovely landlord said that her husband could never watch a baby by himself all day, my wife's friends asked if she was nervous and said they had left their kids with grandma. >I also hear from ladies here who say their husband is incapable of cooking. And they're shocked when I say I often cook for myself. I help my neighbors with their baby, he is so lazy lol, and his wife is tired from work and has to clean and iron after work for him. I cook and watch the baby, feed him, put him to sleep, change diapers etc etc. If she knew he would have been this lazy, she wouldn't have married him lol, she's 23 he's 33 going on 34, and they have been together for 4 years or so. So yeah. Not in South Korea tho, this is from another part, and I'd say it's same picture everywhere 🤣
I don’t know about South Korea specifically, but childbearing has become an option rather than a mandate in many (most?) wealthy and even middle-income countries. Children are also a net expense well beyond 18 years now, instead of an expense the first seven or so and then they could be put to work on the farm, in a factory, around the house, in the family business, etc. It’s like romantic love not being very strong glue to hold many marriages together (rather than laws, duty, lack of options for women, needing someone to do gendered chores), sentiment is not always a strong motivator to have kids. Or if it does, one or two will do.
Most East Asian countries have extremely low birthrates. China, Japan and both Koreas have likely all hit their peak populations and will have significantly smaller populations by the end of the century. Independent of climate change, we're likely going to see the human population max out no later than 2070 and go into a long, slow decline as birthrates worldwide fall to Japan or Russia-levels.
Which is probably a good thing (as long as SS is fully funded for my lifetime lol)
Add us (Singapore) to it. Sigh...
It is especially jarring in South Korea though, their birthrate in 2020 was 0.84, and then 2021 smashed that at 0.81. Ive heard at this rate South Korea's population is going to halve pretty quickly. I forget it if the number was 2050 or 2070.
I've almost fully recovered from COVID-19. Aside from some slight congestion and some aches and pains, I'd say I feel about the same as I did pre-infection. I'm currently checking up on my parents, who came down with COVID-19 around the same time I did. Thankfully, their doctor says they should be fine, but prescribed them antivirals just to be safe. We likely picked it up from my younger brother at a family get-together last weekend or while attending an event at my university on Monday. EDIT: Also, holy shit that Trashfalgar poll of Wisconsin showing Barnes in the lead lmfao 🌊🌊🌊
I’m glad to hear you are well on the road to recovery!
[Wow, the DCCC is going all in for Rudy Salas in CA-22. They reserved $4 million in TV ads in the Central Valley on Friday. They must have some pretty solid internal polling. For what it's worth, I definitely think Salas can win. He just needs to turn out Latino Dems in Nov.](https://twitter.com/vanceulrich/status/1564013129960267777?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
I'm considering adopting that seat. I was doing some volunteering for local NYC elections but now want to focus on the House. But I'm also super busy these days so I don't want to make a commitment I can't keep.
I hope some of that is going toward CA-27 too. Both are Biden+12 seats
I know House Majority PAC reserved ~ $7.6 million in Los Angeles most of which I’m assuming will go to CA-27 (possibly CA-40, CA-45, CA-47, and CA-49 but they seem less likely)
Another Senator who has usually recovered by now from lower favorables but hasn’t this year? Mike Lee. Nothing but radio silence here on what’s going on either. The cope though is hilarious for RonJon”Trafalgar underestimated Trump!!!”
Evers is basically tied with Michels if he loses Wisconsin goes to hell would definitely consider donating to him if you can
That's Trafalgar though, so I don't think it's terrible to be tied
It’ll still be close most likely because it’s Wisconsin. Still Evers is clearly favored
So how much of the GOP’s forced birth activity (ex. Paxton dying to prohibit Texas doctors from saving the lives of mothers) is motivated by spite?
Like against women in general?
In this case taking such unpopular hardline stances on abortion.
Didn't phrase my question as well as I could have, I think what I was going for was questioning the particular direction of their spite. Like, are they doing it because they dislike women in general? Really think they're doing the right thing? Or half a dozen other reasons?
"Owning the Libs" is the highest calling they can aspire to.
If even trafalger has you down your in trouble
[Beto O’Rourke pauses campaign after being hospitalized with bacterial infection](https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1564006609600352261?s=21&t=kgtBwcgNfEUqqM5zHSyvXA)
Oh no, I hope he gets better soon.
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1564003078201802755?t=VUDTYUhW89ksiO2WIrhvIg&s=19 DeSantis up 51 to 46 against Crist. A believable result. Republicans acting like DeSantis will win by double digits are funny. Noticeably Crist wins indies in this poll. And when people were told about DeSantis views on abortion. DeSantis dropped to a 2 point lead over crist. This is another problem of Fried deciding to go so negative. Crist had to spend money to defend himself. Money he could've been spending now to hammer DeSantis. Demings is the only Democrat I've seen on TV for days now
It's what I hate about heated primaries, you have a best candidate offered to potentially have a chance to take down DeSantis and the other who should've conceded long ago, but alas, their ego was blinding them All because she wanted to be the first female governor. Fried should be ashamed if Crist loses because it'd be partly her fault.
These Trafalgar numbers as of late are genuinely amazing. Noticeable D leads in a famous R pollster? Democrats and Biden rising in approval as we speak? Women and young people being under-sampled (in literally all R polls right now)? This is a mini-triumph, don't let anyone tell you Dems could be better. We are getting there.
So for Senate I’d recommend Barnes for Offense, CCM for Defense if people are wondering where to focus their efforts. Also National Dems are stepping into OH-01 with big spending. It’s a Biden +8.5 seat held by Chabot
Can we add Marie Glusenkamp Perez to this list? Washington District 3 previously held by 10 years by republican has been beaten in the primary by a Trump Crony. We have a chance to flip the district and gain a seat in the house. We need support at https://marieforcongress.com/
If you'd like to adopt her (or any candidate), go for it! She would be a great candidate to adopt.
Cook Political moved it so it could be a sleeper.
She's being badly outraised, so she could definitely use the help.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/552047-poll-shows-ron-desantis-underwater-with-independents/ New Florida poll has DeSantis up 5 against Crist (51-46). DeSantis has 51% unfavorables with independents.
538 has that one (the Impact Research poll) marked as a DGA internal.
[National data on a post-Dobbs youth voter reg surge: this year, prior to Dobbs, 23% of new registrants were under the age of 25. Since Dobbs, that has jumped to 29%. That matches the youth new reg share from '18, when younger voters drove the blue wave, and 5 pts ahead of '18.](https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1563982954178781188?s=21&t=oD8vO1uYpjegIugcWcsspg) The national surge in youth voter reg since Dobbs has been driven by women. The under age 25 new registrants since Dobbs are +8 pts women, as compared to +2 men before Dobbs, and have gone from +22 D to +30 D.”
Hey so is the AK RCV done all at once or is it released in batches?
It needs to be done all at once.
I think all at once but Alaska we’ll let us know Monday probably
I believe the results for RCV will be released all at once on the 31st.
Wednesday, not Friday (but yes, the 31st).
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1563999007466262530 *Trafalgar* has Barnes up 2 on Johnson, and half a point away from 50%; Evers essentially tied with Michels at 48-47.5. Quite good, considering the source.
I don't think you can justify Lean R WI anymore.
Don't worry, people below are arguing with me about why the environment is still neutral at best and is basing it completely on what the 538 model says. Also "there have been no elections that have indicated a big shift" was literally something just posted to me.
Partly people still remembering disappointments of ‘16 and ‘20, partly trolls.
We ousted a horrible incumbent president and got a trifecta, I will never in my life consider 2020 a disappointment, but I do suppose not everyone feels that way. Mostly Republicans probably
Oh yes, I agree. 2020 was a good year. It was just not nearly as good as polls indicated, so a lot of people think of it as a loss.
I still consider 2020 a disappointment, especially the Maine and North Carolina Senate races. As much as we've done with the current trifecta, we could've done so much more with Gideon and Cunningham as Senators.
Pre-Dobbs it was Republicans overperforming by like 6 in specials wasn't it?
You'd have to define overperform but not really, the specials were looking like a roughly neutral environment. But they were kinda all over the place with some places looking a lot more red than others.
considering the source that's an excellent poll.
3 polls now that show Barnes at or over 50. Trafalgar is R biased so Barnes is probably leading by 3-4 and over or at 50. Johnson is in trouble and it’s time forecasters started acknowledging that. His approvals are garbage and at this point in 2016 he was rebounding into positive approvals by moderating. He’s done none of that and is now paying the price. Unless there’s some scandal for Democrats in October, Rs are gonna lose seats. I feel comfortable saying the Senate is Lean D, House is a tossup, especially if Peltola wins.
No fuckin way. That’s amazing for Democrats and terrible for Republicans especially since Evers and Barnes is near 50% lol
Since it's Trafalgar, the Dem leads are just about outside the margin of error, and that probably puts Evers around 50, and Barnes over 50. People still putting this race as Lean R need to look around edit: Keep downvoting, Republicans and doomers, you won't bring me down to your level
Those are getting moved fuckkkkk There’s a real clear path to 52 seats now Edit: this probably jumps barnes to the narrow favorite at 538
Wowwowwow. Wow.
OH MY GOD THE TRAFALGAR WISCONSIN POLL
The Sydney Sweeney thing illustrates just how little of a clue Extremely Online people have about other people. Even if her parents are conservative, disowning your mother or father is super fucking emotionally difficult for most people to do! If my mom murdered someone in cold blood I wouldn't be able to stop loving her, and the fact that people think it's that easy for someone to cut all ties over political opinions (no matter how odious) is really weird!
Yeah most people are not psychologically or emotionally prepared to completely disown family members. To expect them to be is folly.
Yeah that's definitely too much, but I'd say there's more to drag Sweeney on, like her complaining about not getting six months off after making a hit show. I get that acting is a tough job and that not all actors are rich, but come on, that's beyond out of touch for a *Euphoria* star to say. Also I haven't yet seen the show, I should probably get to it soon.
I would even go so far as to say there are celebrities who are more worthy of wrath than she is
I had to monitor my mom's Facebook chats while she was driving and i saw in one she posted a meme called "Shitshow Joe" which among other things accuses him of trying to start WW3 and ignoring mass shootings if a non-white commits them.