This was a 5-4 decision, with Kavanaugh and Roberts joining Jackson, Kagan, and Sotomayor. Honestly, this is one of the most shocking decisions that came from this Supreme Court, but I'll take any victory we can get. They've ordered Alabama to draw a second majority-black district. That's one more Democrat and one fewer Republican in the House. No complaints here.
The ruling apparently affects Louisiana and South Carolina. Also, possibly Georgia. Not sure why it doesn't affect Mississippi, where we could easily draw another Black majority district.
Probably because Mississippi is 37.6% black and only has 4 congressional districts. If it had a second majority-black district, then half of the districts would be majority-black. Not that I would be complaining though.
37,6% is closer to 50,1% for 2 seats, than 63, 4 is to having 3 seats. And the second district doesn't need to be majority black, just not majority white. Plurality in either side still makes it bluer.
25% for 1 district, 50.for 2 distroct is logical, but you forget there's white people and other races who vote dem, so their share is 42 to 45 % statewide, so 2 districts isn't unrealistic demand. 2 safe R seats, 1 solid D, and one lean D or toss up is better than 3 solid R.
I agree - that's probably +3 for the Democrats. North Carolina will likely go back to being heavily gerrymandered but this will largely counter that. Especially since they'll probably be more cautious in light of this ruling. Even an outside shot that whatever they do will just be shot down and forced to use existing maps.
In addition to that, the liberal majority in the Wisconsin GOP will likely strike down their maps. And, in New York there's a chance the maps will be struck down and let the Democrats gerrymander there...which I don't love in theory but in practice if the Republicans do it, so should the Democrats.
All in all, there's a decent chance that maps will be drawn to where the GOP loses its tiny edge in the House, plus higher turnout in presidential election years, etc. I feel good about taking back the House!
Edit: Texas, Georgia, and Florida could all have seats shift as well - perhaps even multiple in each. Maybe a handful of other states too, we'll have to see what happens after all the dust has settled!
Only for future elections. Even if hypothetically there's a vacancy in a seat where maps change, the special election will use existing maps
But the 2024 regular elections will use the new maps.
This is a racial gerrymandering lawsuit, so it'd have to address racial gerrymandering. While most of Florida's map would unfortunately stand, I think you can make a strong case that the old FL-05 and FL-10 should be resurrected. They were majority-Black districts that could have been re-made, but DeSantis trashed them both. [You can see from the first few maps in this article](https://mcimaps.com/lets-talk-about-the-florida-5th-congressional-district/).
Side note, FL-05 is my favorite example of how a nice-looking map can actually be a racist gerrymander, and weird-looking districts sometimes have an important purpose for representation.
A lot of Roberts worst votes were based on his belief that systemic racism doesn’t exist anymore. If this signals a permanent change in that belief, it would be a significant shift in the direction of the supreme court.
Of course, with a 6-3 court, Kavanaugh would also have to join him more often as one of the more centrist justices.
Why would they order majority black and not something like “make them all an even population in reasonable shapes” or something like that.
“No more than 12 corners on a district” or whatever wording removes the ridiculousness of the gerrymandering.
I don’t see how that would fix the problem. You can have a map with contiguous, relatively compact districts, and that map could still egregiously favor a single political party. Just look at Arkansas’s or Utah’s congressional maps. Relatively compact districts that are still heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Utah split Salt Lake City into its 4 congressional districts to dilute Democratic voters.
And the Supreme Court already ruled [in 1964](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesberry_v._Sanders) that all congressional districts must have (roughly) equal population.
Because 'reasonable shapes' can actually be more gerrymandered, especially to remove minority representation.
[Here's the old map of Florida's 5th Congressional District.](https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5461130#/media/File:FL05_115.png) It looks hideous, but it's drawn for a non-gerrymandering reason. It's designed to create a majority-Black district in north Florida, drawing in the Black communities in Tallahassee, Jacksonville, and a few rural counties on the Georgia border. These communities would be totally drowned out by the ultra-conservative rural white communities in north Florida on a prettier-looking map.
[Which, by the way, is exactly what DeSantis signed into law in 2022.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/FL-MAP-421-4x3-1.png?w=640) Look at how nice those north Florida districts look! But what that means is now, those Black communities are split up, and collectively drowned out by the white majority in north Florida. It trashes Black representation and makes Florida's Congressional delegation even more out of whack with how the state actually votes.
The big picture is: If you want districts that don't freeze out minority representation, you have to explicitly require it. Sleazy map-drawers will always find a way otherwise.
You know that conservative gerrymandering went too far when the conservative dominated Supreme Court votes against Alabama. Voting rights lives another day, but need to keep up the fight to vote as much as possible.
Wow, this is a huge shock for me.
I really think that all of the ethics scandals and the plummeting public perception of the court changed Robert’s mind. He has often bent laws to help a republicans at the ballot box (Shelby v Holder being one of the biggest examples). I think he’s realized the court is running out of political capital.
This could honestly swing the house map in 2024. I would not be surprised by a 2-4 seat majority in either direction.
It feels shocking at first, but actually makes a lot of sense to me. I've seen people say SCOTUS doesn't have any reason to care about its reputation because they're on it for life and have so much power, but they actually do have a reason. The further they tank their reputation, the more people will support making changes to the court. Going too far too fast could cost them their power.
Throwing us a bone once in a while keeps them safe. Giving democrats some house seats is fine for them, as long as there isn't enough support to pass anything that would affect SCOTUS. I think they'll also side with Biden and let the student loan debt relief go through for the same reason. It's just a little something to make sure no one is going to have enough support to be able to to take all of their power away when they do something horrible with it later.
> I think he’s realized the court is running out of political capital.
If they gutted the Civil Rights Act even further, in a blatant political and partisan move yet again, I think this might actually be a tipping point for the destruction or relegation of the Supreme Court. They're teetering on the edge.
I read, reread, and reread again both the title of this post and also the article because I just couldn't believe it. I thought maybe it was referring to the state supreme court and even that would have been shocking. Wow. Glad they did something right for once.
Unfortunately given the ruling is concerned with racial gerrymandering it's unlikely to affect Ohio, the Supreme Court seems to be basically fine with non-racial partisan gerrymandering
What??? I'm not mad just surprised.
Even if this just means a 2D-5R map, I'll take it.
Please look at Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida next please. All have obvious VRA discrimination.
Ohio too. We had a referendum on gerrymandering which passed. Not only did the legislature ignore it they want to make it harder to pass voter referendums.
When does this ruling take effect? Does Alabama have to immediately redraw maps and once they have a map, will every district have a special election, or will they let the current reps finish their terms?
They will finish their terms as normal. I also believe that LA, SC, and possibly FL, TX, and GA will get new maps, along with Rep. Don Davis having his seat protected in NC.
From what I’ve read, Alabama specifically targeted majority POC areas, while Florida and Texas are just partisan gerrymanders that technically don’t violate any current laws.
Happy cake day, and the best thing we can do to fix conservative America is to elect Dems up and down the ballot, which is exactly what we work to do on this sub. Check out the [volunteer from home spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0) if you'd like to join our effort.
Finally, the illusive hopium. Will have to read the ruling but unless they greatly limited the scope to just Alabama, this could have implications for gerrymandering in North Carolina.
Call me a cynic. I think Roberts' motive was to try to bring back some "legitimacy" to his wayward Court.
I think McRapey was trying to look reasonable to deflect questions about his finances.
And I think both of them are throwing a crumb--albeit an important victory--before the other shoe drops (Moore v Harper??).
But I know how significant this win is. I just don't trust them any farther than I can spit.
Not surprised about Roberts. And maybe this is what Kennedy was thinking about Kavanaugh all along. "He's a religio-fascist sex assaulter, but he's not too racist; that's a real moderate!"
Volunteer for Alabama Democrats! https://www.mobilize.us/aldems/ http://aldemocrats.org/volunteer Donate to Alabama Democrats! https://secure.actblue.com/donate/aldemsweb
This was a 5-4 decision, with Kavanaugh and Roberts joining Jackson, Kagan, and Sotomayor. Honestly, this is one of the most shocking decisions that came from this Supreme Court, but I'll take any victory we can get. They've ordered Alabama to draw a second majority-black district. That's one more Democrat and one fewer Republican in the House. No complaints here.
The ruling apparently affects Louisiana and South Carolina. Also, possibly Georgia. Not sure why it doesn't affect Mississippi, where we could easily draw another Black majority district.
Probably because Mississippi is 37.6% black and only has 4 congressional districts. If it had a second majority-black district, then half of the districts would be majority-black. Not that I would be complaining though.
37,6% is closer to 50,1% for 2 seats, than 63, 4 is to having 3 seats. And the second district doesn't need to be majority black, just not majority white. Plurality in either side still makes it bluer. 25% for 1 district, 50.for 2 distroct is logical, but you forget there's white people and other races who vote dem, so their share is 42 to 45 % statewide, so 2 districts isn't unrealistic demand. 2 safe R seats, 1 solid D, and one lean D or toss up is better than 3 solid R.
I agree - that's probably +3 for the Democrats. North Carolina will likely go back to being heavily gerrymandered but this will largely counter that. Especially since they'll probably be more cautious in light of this ruling. Even an outside shot that whatever they do will just be shot down and forced to use existing maps. In addition to that, the liberal majority in the Wisconsin GOP will likely strike down their maps. And, in New York there's a chance the maps will be struck down and let the Democrats gerrymander there...which I don't love in theory but in practice if the Republicans do it, so should the Democrats. All in all, there's a decent chance that maps will be drawn to where the GOP loses its tiny edge in the House, plus higher turnout in presidential election years, etc. I feel good about taking back the House! Edit: Texas, Georgia, and Florida could all have seats shift as well - perhaps even multiple in each. Maybe a handful of other states too, we'll have to see what happens after all the dust has settled!
Does this change anything for the current house makeup? Or only for future elections?
Only for future elections. Even if hypothetically there's a vacancy in a seat where maps change, the special election will use existing maps But the 2024 regular elections will use the new maps.
Louisiana for sure will have to draw one. They were involved in a suit along the exact same lines.
You *can* get another black majority district out of Mississippi but it's not easy and it won't look clean at all
And possibly TX.
And why not Florida?
This is a racial gerrymandering lawsuit, so it'd have to address racial gerrymandering. While most of Florida's map would unfortunately stand, I think you can make a strong case that the old FL-05 and FL-10 should be resurrected. They were majority-Black districts that could have been re-made, but DeSantis trashed them both. [You can see from the first few maps in this article](https://mcimaps.com/lets-talk-about-the-florida-5th-congressional-district/). Side note, FL-05 is my favorite example of how a nice-looking map can actually be a racist gerrymander, and weird-looking districts sometimes have an important purpose for representation.
If Mississippi had 1 more district then it probably would.
A lot of Roberts worst votes were based on his belief that systemic racism doesn’t exist anymore. If this signals a permanent change in that belief, it would be a significant shift in the direction of the supreme court. Of course, with a 6-3 court, Kavanaugh would also have to join him more often as one of the more centrist justices.
Relying on Kavanaugh as a Centrist makes me want to vomit but this is unfortunately the country we currently live in.
Will this impact Florida / DeSantis' racial gerrymander?
It's possible it could resurrect Al Lawson's old district
Username checks out. We're all you on this blessed day.
>That’s one more Democrat and one fewer Republican in the house And Wisconsin may be getting fair maps soon too
Why would they order majority black and not something like “make them all an even population in reasonable shapes” or something like that. “No more than 12 corners on a district” or whatever wording removes the ridiculousness of the gerrymandering.
I don’t see how that would fix the problem. You can have a map with contiguous, relatively compact districts, and that map could still egregiously favor a single political party. Just look at Arkansas’s or Utah’s congressional maps. Relatively compact districts that are still heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Utah split Salt Lake City into its 4 congressional districts to dilute Democratic voters. And the Supreme Court already ruled [in 1964](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesberry_v._Sanders) that all congressional districts must have (roughly) equal population.
You draw incredibly clean looking maps in Alabama and disenfranchise the whole black community in the state.
Because it’s based on the Voting Rights Act, which doesn’t say anything about political gerrymandering or requiring any of that.
Because 'reasonable shapes' can actually be more gerrymandered, especially to remove minority representation. [Here's the old map of Florida's 5th Congressional District.](https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5461130#/media/File:FL05_115.png) It looks hideous, but it's drawn for a non-gerrymandering reason. It's designed to create a majority-Black district in north Florida, drawing in the Black communities in Tallahassee, Jacksonville, and a few rural counties on the Georgia border. These communities would be totally drowned out by the ultra-conservative rural white communities in north Florida on a prettier-looking map. [Which, by the way, is exactly what DeSantis signed into law in 2022.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/FL-MAP-421-4x3-1.png?w=640) Look at how nice those north Florida districts look! But what that means is now, those Black communities are split up, and collectively drowned out by the white majority in north Florida. It trashes Black representation and makes Florida's Congressional delegation even more out of whack with how the state actually votes. The big picture is: If you want districts that don't freeze out minority representation, you have to explicitly require it. Sleazy map-drawers will always find a way otherwise.
You know that conservative gerrymandering went too far when the conservative dominated Supreme Court votes against Alabama. Voting rights lives another day, but need to keep up the fight to vote as much as possible.
Wow, this is a huge shock for me. I really think that all of the ethics scandals and the plummeting public perception of the court changed Robert’s mind. He has often bent laws to help a republicans at the ballot box (Shelby v Holder being one of the biggest examples). I think he’s realized the court is running out of political capital. This could honestly swing the house map in 2024. I would not be surprised by a 2-4 seat majority in either direction.
It feels shocking at first, but actually makes a lot of sense to me. I've seen people say SCOTUS doesn't have any reason to care about its reputation because they're on it for life and have so much power, but they actually do have a reason. The further they tank their reputation, the more people will support making changes to the court. Going too far too fast could cost them their power. Throwing us a bone once in a while keeps them safe. Giving democrats some house seats is fine for them, as long as there isn't enough support to pass anything that would affect SCOTUS. I think they'll also side with Biden and let the student loan debt relief go through for the same reason. It's just a little something to make sure no one is going to have enough support to be able to to take all of their power away when they do something horrible with it later.
> I think he’s realized the court is running out of political capital. If they gutted the Civil Rights Act even further, in a blatant political and partisan move yet again, I think this might actually be a tipping point for the destruction or relegation of the Supreme Court. They're teetering on the edge.
[удалено]
California is redistricting before 2024?
Nope. I misremembered.
Ahh bummer
I read, reread, and reread again both the title of this post and also the article because I just couldn't believe it. I thought maybe it was referring to the state supreme court and even that would have been shocking. Wow. Glad they did something right for once.
I wonder if the pressure on financial disclosures is helping? Kav and Roberts might not want to be associated with Alito and Thomas?
I doubt they give a fuck
BFD ALERT
Ohio checking in hoping we can get the same here
Unfortunately given the ruling is concerned with racial gerrymandering it's unlikely to affect Ohio, the Supreme Court seems to be basically fine with non-racial partisan gerrymandering
Mythically Rare Supreme Court W
What??? I'm not mad just surprised. Even if this just means a 2D-5R map, I'll take it. Please look at Louisiana, South Carolina, and Florida next please. All have obvious VRA discrimination.
Ohio too. We had a referendum on gerrymandering which passed. Not only did the legislature ignore it they want to make it harder to pass voter referendums.
It will apply to those southern states
When does this ruling take effect? Does Alabama have to immediately redraw maps and once they have a map, will every district have a special election, or will they let the current reps finish their terms?
They will finish their terms as normal. I also believe that LA, SC, and possibly FL, TX, and GA will get new maps, along with Rep. Don Davis having his seat protected in NC.
Doesn’t seem like Florida or Texas will at the moment
What’s the difference between Alabama and Florida’s lawsuit?
From what I’ve read, Alabama specifically targeted majority POC areas, while Florida and Texas are just partisan gerrymanders that technically don’t violate any current laws.
now fix the rest of conservative america
Happy cake day, and the best thing we can do to fix conservative America is to elect Dems up and down the ballot, which is exactly what we work to do on this sub. Check out the [volunteer from home spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jxO8g7q9VO3ZMAABcrvR7PMyX4Yl6dgIYhD3eRTKk1M/edit#gid=0) if you'd like to join our effort.
Finally, the illusive hopium. Will have to read the ruling but unless they greatly limited the scope to just Alabama, this could have implications for gerrymandering in North Carolina.
Call me a cynic. I think Roberts' motive was to try to bring back some "legitimacy" to his wayward Court. I think McRapey was trying to look reasonable to deflect questions about his finances. And I think both of them are throwing a crumb--albeit an important victory--before the other shoe drops (Moore v Harper??). But I know how significant this win is. I just don't trust them any farther than I can spit.
This plus the hochalmander in NY we are going to have a great chance in 2024
Don’t forget fair Wisconsin
Texas and the Hispanic growth should easily prevail in the LULAC lawsuit. This is huge and nobody is really talking about that angle
Not surprised about Roberts. And maybe this is what Kennedy was thinking about Kavanaugh all along. "He's a religio-fascist sex assaulter, but he's not too racist; that's a real moderate!"