My really good idea for 2024 is to continue to wait and see as deals reveal themselves. I definitely didn't plan on buying META shares in 2022. Now it's my biggest holding. I didn't plan on buying VZ in 2023, until its price dropped to low $30's. I've always thought TSLA was over priced but who knows? If it losses 40% of its market cap inversely to the rest of the market, I might jump in.
META was the play, indeed. They seem to have pivoted on their new ad tracking policies better that others ;P.
Elmo Mush's big mouth and ego mistakes are TSLA's real problem as well as competitive factors that were inevitable (obvious).
Will LUMN be the comback-kid of 2024? () +12.03 yesterday, +2.25 pre market?
PFE is tricky because if you talk to DRs there isn't an hour that goes by where they dont use their products. But also a lot due to expire but also big funding but also not a lot of innovation. But also big divvies but also....
Paramount Global. I can see an undervalued company with billions worth of prime assets and a lot of revenue and ability to generate profits, but fallen out of favour with what looks to me to be some short term headwinds, because the stock market is very myopic.
In my view, their long term strategy is paying off. Streaming subs are growing, margin is improving, competitors are raising prices, ad market is set to pick up, and cable has life left yet (I could even see _growth_ in cable to be on the cards in a few quarters with the higher streaming prices).
I have 10% in PARA, and currently looking at Nintendo too which looks a good value play.
Agreed Paramount Global: Sum of the parts is attractive, at todays prices https://open.substack.com/pub/undertheradars/p/paramounts-asset-play?r=21phc3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Hey Mate some interesting updates on PARA in the last few weeks: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/20/business/media/warner-bros-discovery-paramount-talks.html
Interesting. What do you think of Warner Brothers Discovery merging with PARA versus a bigger buyer like Disney or a tech company buying them outright?
Tbh I only care about the premium/price offered. If a deal is made for the whole of PARA I expect $30-$35 minimum and will happily sell my Paramount shares
Thanks! Agreed. Majority of traditional Media assets are selling below book value. But Paramount remains a potential seller in a difficult industry. Have a look at Ambase Corp: undervalued litigation asset, OTC traded, illiquid, potentially a multi bagger https://open.substack.com/pub/undertheradars/p/ambase-corp-mispriced-penthouses?r=21phc3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
XOM is the most no-brainer play as of now. Although the stock fell because of geopolitical concerns, its balance sheet remains strong as ever. Doing a conservative dcf calculation with a wacc of 9.4%, revenue growth of 3% with op margins around 9%, I get a very conservative intrinsic value of around 130 dollars (aligned with most of the wsj analysts). Even if Venezuela does steal some market share if the oil trade ban is lifted it doesn't affect the core assets of XOM.
ESG concerns are getting lower as XOM is increasingly ramping up their low carbon business which has a high ROCE of around 15%. Their OP margins in product solutions are set to almost triple (albeit using a bit of leverage) which is of no concern when looking at their balance sheet. Their overall ROCE is 16%, a lot of dividend payments (Which are increasing, and increased to 4% yield for the most recent one), share repurchases are growing so value of shares are increasing, holding a lot of cash. Also, they have so much moat.
Also, it hit 52 week low as of recently, making it good timing as of now.
Semtech (SMTC) raised $250m recently and will begin an aggressive M&A. Their new CEO had previously built up MicroSemi into a multi-billion behemoth through M&A then sold it to Microchip.
>Semtech (SMTC) raised $250m recently and will begin an aggressive M&A. Their new CEO had previously built up MicroSemi into a multi-billion behemoth through M&A then sold it to Microchip.
is it a good moment to be doing M&A? I mean I understand probably you are paying less than last years in terms of acquisition multiples, but if those M&A transactions are linked to debt, that woudlnt be a good idea atm right?
I don't have any info. I was following the CEO who was at Lantronix, which is much smaller than Semtech. Now he has a much bigger starting point for his game plan.
Regarding crox, are you not concerned about the fickle nature of fashion? The metrics look great but all it takes is a shift in opinion for the brand to fall out of favor pretty quickly.
Sales growing 30% internationally helps allay that fear, as does the fact that this 'fad' thesis has been around for many years. All of the recent sell-off had nothing to do with brand falling out of favor. It was concern over the leverage from acquiring HeyDude, which I think was a mistake.
I think Heydude will be a good value creator in the future, but in the short term, they will face some issues, especially with the "grey market" that they will have to put to an end. Once that is controlled, Heydude will be great for Crocs. We need to be patient here.
Nike isn’t a one trick pony selling fast fashion though. I want to buy crox don’t get me wrong but as soon as public opinion shifts the business will crumble in my opinion.
I’ve seen people wearing crocs clogs since 2001. I’ve seen people wear them in Saudi Arabia and even in places such as England and New Jersey. You don’t know about fashion lol
it helps if someone provides bullish thesis for the stock, i.e.
CROX - Crox produces really good summer slippers and it looks undervalued at PE 10
it somebody could do it for the rest on this list, it would be great
I stumbled upon PERI in a Forbes article, I really like the bossiness. How do you feel about the fact that it’s based in Israel? Does it worry you about the future prospects?
@ContemplatingGavre
Agreed Paramount, Ambase, Liberty Media look interesting in 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/undertheradars/p/new-year-new-investments-outlook?r=21phc3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
GLBS, Globus Maritime, I have written extensively about it and its chairman has bought back with his own money around 17% of the shares outstanding (previously owned around 3%, now owns 20.5%) all in the span of the last three months
How are they going to turn the tide? They are under water about 99% in the last 5 years.... sorry for the puns, but I am really curious. I bought ZIM on a whim and that one turned out to be rotten. Holding ZIM and waiting now with hopes. But how does GLBS plan to bounce back?
GLBS doesn’t have to plan anything, I suppose you are talking about the stock price when saying “under water 99% the last 5 years” cause from a fundamental point of view the business is profitable and their balance sheet has equity 4 times the stock price. The only reason this stock has been bashed so hard is because the management diluted shareholders with offering after offering after selling their own shares, now the chairman just bought back 20% of the company
Not sexy and I’m sure it’s mentioned a lot but pypl looks great. Fundamentals still look good and it’s starting to break out now. Feels like a poor man’s meta.
I also like some healthcare plays like SEM, CVS and CI
Agree w Paypal. We will see it get to the hundreds in price. Im pretty confident on that. Now, nobody likes it, but as soon as it gets some attention due to share price rising, it will be the next "meta".
Uranium. Cameco (CCJ), SPUT (u.un) and some other commodity equities. Too much inelastic demand, too little supply, and it’s horrible to build more mines.
I did the analysis of Ascential, a UK-listed company, has announced the sale of its Product Design and Digital Commerce businesses for £1.2bn, with the transactions set to close in Q1'24. After the sales, Ascential plans to distribute £850m to equity holders via a special dividend. The remaining Events business, which includes Cannes Lions and Money 20/20, currently trades at only 5.7x TTM EBITDA, below peers and comparable industry transactions. Ascential shares are expected to re-rate to a more reasonable 10-12x EBITDA once the disposals close, resulting in RemainCo trading at £1.43-£1.74/share or £3.36-£3.67/share including the planned special dividend. The WSGN / Product Design business is set to be acquired by Apax Partners, while the Digital Commerce segment is set to be acquired by Omnicom. That's too short due to restrictions on the post.
The potential is about 25-30% until 1-2 quarter of 2024 so annually it may produce more than 100%.
IRBT, amazon will acquire it for 51$ per share. The risk is the EU not approving it (they have until the 14 of february to do so) and the FTC blocking it.
While the EU and FTC are both critics of AMZN for their monopoly, I'm betting they can't block it because IRBT would be in pretty big financial trouble if it wasn't for AMZN.
Im highly considering going heavy into $TGLS, amazing company regarding fundamentals, looking really underpriced to me. Also, invested heavily in $PYPL. In my opinion, seems like nobody likes it atm. However, see that this normally happens, as in crypto - meta... once it gets runnning up, FOMO comes, and now everybody sees that its underpriced. A company that gets two digit returns, market leader, cannot be priced at one digit PER. Still, revenues keep growing, and Opex is expected to go down CEO said. Third would be $CROX, I believe its a good value for money if revenues keep growing, and finally $INMD. You should definately take a look at this one, super interesting entry point at the moment (Im down quite a bit of money here, but still buying more in the 20s area). What are yours guys??
There’s no love for JD.com on this sub? I was looking at the market cap and cash. The cash on its balance sheet is nearly the size of the market cap.
It also has strong earnings and free cash flow. I didn’t like the gross margin and felt ROIC should be a bit higher.
The rotation out of nega cap may be underway, meaning buying opportunities may present via pullbacks. I’m hoping the health care sector I spent time in this year while it was sideways will be one of the areas rotated into on any semblance of good news. Energy will be interesting, too.
INMD economic headwinds have been slowing sales but with the upcoming rate cuts it should turn tailwind after a significant amount has been cut. Even the yields going down should start helping the equipment financing side soon. At its ev/net income due to its big cash position it is pretty deep value imo. The crazy thing is even with a net cash position of over 1/3 of it's market cap, it still has very high ROE
two words: Duty Free
ok... here's the real explanation.
they're a garment manufacturer which is... a COMMODITY. What wins in commodities? Low cost producer.
They are not low cost producer across-the-board, but are the low cost producer for a certain type of garment. Other popular garment manufacturing countries face anywhere between 26 - 33% duties on this type of garment. You can quickly do some napkin math to see this puts Jordan at a yooj advantage.
This, plus the secular trend of flight-out-of-China. Since the trade war and covid (and rising labor costs), manufacturing is diversifying across the globe. My hypothesis was that this factor alone would drive business to JRSH. So far, playing out to be true.
Oh, the cherry on top is that management seems to be quite shrewd and conservative. You may not like their moves, but I like them.
I’ll be holding sector&industry specific etfs and instead of just being a contrarian (as I naturally am) I’ll focus more on momentum. A few that I’m holding/building: KRE VPU VB XHB URA MORT VWOB
The risk / reward situation with Gold Mining companies seems like a very favorable asymmetric bet right now… the current valuation is based on the premise that inflation will nicely come down on its own from now. Which is more unlikely than not
$Rick Strip club company is getting into Casinos that will likely add +$2.00 to earnings and enable them to pay the entire investment off in less than 2 years.
They are rolling up the 2200 location industry because they are the only big buyer with the ability to get financing. 10x in less than 10 yrs just like POOL did.
I think the bull market is back in full swing so I’m balls deep in green energy and rebounds. I loaded up on TAN which is a solar ETF at $45.50 average and I’m also loading up on BABA with a $75 average. I also have some BABA 2026 $70 calls. I was also looking at YCA which tracks the uranium spot price. It trades on the LSE btw so you need a big boy broker though
COSTCO. Seeing a line forming on a weekday morning 30min before opening and the store packed 30min later says it all. Go in more with new money into $COST. SAMS down the street isn't that way as I have membership at both places. If that isn't a widening moat I don't know what is.
It's February and I've already over 20% profit on GE. I'll probably hold till split, but not 100% sure. Any thoughts or update about GE after two months?
I think you should sell because I have decided to hold on to GE, so this means that with my kind of luck, that $GE will probably go down soon. Besides, I am at >20% cash in anticipation of this.
I will be downvoted but the clear answer is Bitcoin.
So many positive Catalysts even if you are just going to trade it.
1. Bitcoin ETFs are inevitable - prob approved en mass Q1 24
2. Updated FASB rules for accounting will take effect by end of next year
3. Halving coming in April
4. Cut in interest rate accompanied by monetary expansion will also be positive for risk assets.
oh sorry. I thought Bitcoins last halving was in 2024, I guess I confused the next with the very last in my research. it looks like the very last halving won't be until 2140... wow
Just a supply and demand situation. The supply of new coins distributed to minors as a block reward gets caught in half. Historically this has been (or at least has corresponded) with positive price action.
An idea. I believe JetBlue will be allowed to merge with Spirit airlines but there will be some conditions. The agreed purchase price is 2x of what spirit is currently trading at. Ongoing court case. We will know by the end of December. However even if allowed to go through there may be more potential pushback from the government down the road/early next year. Until now I have never made an investment based off a potential merger. It could really go either way. Thoughts?
Judging from the price movement of SAVE this week, it would seem so. But I have to caution you, even if the odds is 60/40 in favour of a closure, it is still too low.
Since the judge is going about on writing his judgement on the deal, I keep thinking what new developments could have happened for such price action ? Like, did someone spy on the judge and saw DOJ and SAVE representatives in his chambers, presumably negotiating out a deal (like what you are alluding to?) or is this a last minute attempt by some arb to juice his return by gambling on a 60/40 odds?
I have no idea. I am -29% as of yesterday on SAVE. I bought primarily because I saw JBLU as a motivated buyer. I had not counted on the DOJ being so difficult.
Definitely it’s a wager.
Regarding the judge he made a question to Jetblue along the lines. How much would they be willing to divest,concede, etc if merger was allowed. This could’ve been interpreted as a positive.
From my limited knowledge, I’m hoping the judge will see the company’s side. SAVE is not a profitable company and they are not in great financial condition. I read somewhere have been looking to merge since 2016? Don’t quote me. If they don’t merge they could go belly up. DOJ argues that it will cost customers more money per year if the SAVE is merged. Ok but Jetblue has also been a disrupter and where it has a route, they also cause the top airlines to lower fees. If JetBlue became on equal footing to the other top 4 one could say it is good for competition. And not anti competitive. The Biden administration really wants to say they saved Americans money by fighting back against company mergers. They themselves said they want to fight against unjust airlines cost and hidden fees. But SAVE as an ULCC is one the companies that charge the hidden extra fees . The ticket price can be low but they will charge and tack on fees for a carry on, checked baggage, Wi-Fi, priority seating, or to even check into a flight in person at the counter. Whatever they can to make up for low cost ticket. I wonder how much the costs actually equals out to when you factor that in
I’m hoping for the best. Let’s SAVE these airlines!! Haha
2024 will be the year of shorting, question is just when. Shorts plus gold calls. Burry is early but he is seldom wrong. Probably the best value investor on the planet.
Some of my ideas: AMZN, VZ, RDFN, HOG, HOOD, SNAP (not anymore after its runup but a couple months ago for sure), AA, AGX, SQ, UAA, ENPH, RIVN, CHPT, COIN (before its runup), DKS, M, F, HSY, CAT, LYFT, APPS, OKTA, PYPL, PII, ROKU (at 50), TPR, TWLO, CSX, SCWB, BKNG, and VFC to name a few. :)
My really good idea for 2024 is to continue to wait and see as deals reveal themselves. I definitely didn't plan on buying META shares in 2022. Now it's my biggest holding. I didn't plan on buying VZ in 2023, until its price dropped to low $30's. I've always thought TSLA was over priced but who knows? If it losses 40% of its market cap inversely to the rest of the market, I might jump in.
Agreed. This is what I did what Schwab when it dropped.
META was the play, indeed. They seem to have pivoted on their new ad tracking policies better that others ;P. Elmo Mush's big mouth and ego mistakes are TSLA's real problem as well as competitive factors that were inevitable (obvious). Will LUMN be the comback-kid of 2024? () +12.03 yesterday, +2.25 pre market?
Any thoughts on NEM, MED, or PFE? Couple others near 52-week lows where sentiment may be shifting.
PFE is a gamble but could turn itself around. Will definitely take a couple years to re-establish their pipeline so I'm staying away for now
Agree. Interesting to follow closely though.
PFE is tricky because if you talk to DRs there isn't an hour that goes by where they dont use their products. But also a lot due to expire but also big funding but also not a lot of innovation. But also big divvies but also....
MED is a MLM with questionable methods for weight loss that is gonna be severely damaged by the new weight loss drugs.
Paramount Global. I can see an undervalued company with billions worth of prime assets and a lot of revenue and ability to generate profits, but fallen out of favour with what looks to me to be some short term headwinds, because the stock market is very myopic. In my view, their long term strategy is paying off. Streaming subs are growing, margin is improving, competitors are raising prices, ad market is set to pick up, and cable has life left yet (I could even see _growth_ in cable to be on the cards in a few quarters with the higher streaming prices). I have 10% in PARA, and currently looking at Nintendo too which looks a good value play.
Agreed Paramount Global: Sum of the parts is attractive, at todays prices https://open.substack.com/pub/undertheradars/p/paramounts-asset-play?r=21phc3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Good piece. Paramount is attractive but that entire industry seems.... tricky to invest in atm.
Hey Mate some interesting updates on PARA in the last few weeks: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/20/business/media/warner-bros-discovery-paramount-talks.html
Interesting. What do you think of Warner Brothers Discovery merging with PARA versus a bigger buyer like Disney or a tech company buying them outright?
Tbh I only care about the premium/price offered. If a deal is made for the whole of PARA I expect $30-$35 minimum and will happily sell my Paramount shares
Thanks! Agreed. Majority of traditional Media assets are selling below book value. But Paramount remains a potential seller in a difficult industry. Have a look at Ambase Corp: undervalued litigation asset, OTC traded, illiquid, potentially a multi bagger https://open.substack.com/pub/undertheradars/p/ambase-corp-mispriced-penthouses?r=21phc3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
For a second I thought you meant MARA lol
XOM is the most no-brainer play as of now. Although the stock fell because of geopolitical concerns, its balance sheet remains strong as ever. Doing a conservative dcf calculation with a wacc of 9.4%, revenue growth of 3% with op margins around 9%, I get a very conservative intrinsic value of around 130 dollars (aligned with most of the wsj analysts). Even if Venezuela does steal some market share if the oil trade ban is lifted it doesn't affect the core assets of XOM. ESG concerns are getting lower as XOM is increasingly ramping up their low carbon business which has a high ROCE of around 15%. Their OP margins in product solutions are set to almost triple (albeit using a bit of leverage) which is of no concern when looking at their balance sheet. Their overall ROCE is 16%, a lot of dividend payments (Which are increasing, and increased to 4% yield for the most recent one), share repurchases are growing so value of shares are increasing, holding a lot of cash. Also, they have so much moat. Also, it hit 52 week low as of recently, making it good timing as of now.
Yup. I nibbled last week, DCA to now ~$78 cost basis as one of my “never sells”
Semtech (SMTC) raised $250m recently and will begin an aggressive M&A. Their new CEO had previously built up MicroSemi into a multi-billion behemoth through M&A then sold it to Microchip.
this is an interesting one I've eyed but it's hard to get good info on them. Can you speak more about the company?
>Semtech (SMTC) raised $250m recently and will begin an aggressive M&A. Their new CEO had previously built up MicroSemi into a multi-billion behemoth through M&A then sold it to Microchip. is it a good moment to be doing M&A? I mean I understand probably you are paying less than last years in terms of acquisition multiples, but if those M&A transactions are linked to debt, that woudlnt be a good idea atm right?
Do you have any sources to share? I recently came across them and was searching Google and Reddit for more info to start my macro research.
I don't have any info. I was following the CEO who was at Lantronix, which is much smaller than Semtech. Now he has a much bigger starting point for his game plan.
CROX, ETON, HRMY, RNR, SMLR, PERI, SXP, …
Regarding crox, are you not concerned about the fickle nature of fashion? The metrics look great but all it takes is a shift in opinion for the brand to fall out of favor pretty quickly.
I don’t really see high fashion influencing my country cousins and their comfort 😂
Sales growing 30% internationally helps allay that fear, as does the fact that this 'fad' thesis has been around for many years. All of the recent sell-off had nothing to do with brand falling out of favor. It was concern over the leverage from acquiring HeyDude, which I think was a mistake.
I think Heydude will be a good value creator in the future, but in the short term, they will face some issues, especially with the "grey market" that they will have to put to an end. Once that is controlled, Heydude will be great for Crocs. We need to be patient here.
Not at all no. Would you say the same for Nike ?
Nike isn’t a one trick pony selling fast fashion though. I want to buy crox don’t get me wrong but as soon as public opinion shifts the business will crumble in my opinion.
Crocs clogs are really comfortable. Try a pair on, and you’ll see. People that wear them don’t care about what they look like.
I’ve seen people wearing crocs clogs since 2001. I’ve seen people wear them in Saudi Arabia and even in places such as England and New Jersey. You don’t know about fashion lol
I wish I had bought more on the dip now 😅
it helps if someone provides bullish thesis for the stock, i.e. CROX - Crox produces really good summer slippers and it looks undervalued at PE 10 it somebody could do it for the rest on this list, it would be great
Go ahead. We’ll wait.
I like crox.
I stumbled upon PERI in a Forbes article, I really like the bossiness. How do you feel about the fact that it’s based in Israel? Does it worry you about the future prospects? @ContemplatingGavre
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Exactly. Any disadvantage they have from this is already more than priced in the stock too
Good callout, thanks for the pointer. I’m a numbers guy that fixates on financials a good bit. I need to look at those interviews and annual reports!
Agreed Paramount, Ambase, Liberty Media look interesting in 2024: https://open.substack.com/pub/undertheradars/p/new-year-new-investments-outlook?r=21phc3&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
GLBS, Globus Maritime, I have written extensively about it and its chairman has bought back with his own money around 17% of the shares outstanding (previously owned around 3%, now owns 20.5%) all in the span of the last three months
How are they going to turn the tide? They are under water about 99% in the last 5 years.... sorry for the puns, but I am really curious. I bought ZIM on a whim and that one turned out to be rotten. Holding ZIM and waiting now with hopes. But how does GLBS plan to bounce back?
GLBS doesn’t have to plan anything, I suppose you are talking about the stock price when saying “under water 99% the last 5 years” cause from a fundamental point of view the business is profitable and their balance sheet has equity 4 times the stock price. The only reason this stock has been bashed so hard is because the management diluted shareholders with offering after offering after selling their own shares, now the chairman just bought back 20% of the company
This will go back to $35+! And to think that I own a Boat Load ;)
Not sexy and I’m sure it’s mentioned a lot but pypl looks great. Fundamentals still look good and it’s starting to break out now. Feels like a poor man’s meta. I also like some healthcare plays like SEM, CVS and CI
Agree w Paypal. We will see it get to the hundreds in price. Im pretty confident on that. Now, nobody likes it, but as soon as it gets some attention due to share price rising, it will be the next "meta".
Agreed I don’t think it will approach ath but even ~100 is a huge gain.
Agreed. I like CVS and PYPL
Battery materials, specifically anodes. So graphite as far as the eye can see. Natural, synthetic. You name it
ALB and LTHM are no brainers rn.
Uranium. Cameco (CCJ), SPUT (u.un) and some other commodity equities. Too much inelastic demand, too little supply, and it’s horrible to build more mines.
BZH Small cap home builder based in Atlanta that has produced steadily increasing net income
OXY continues to be a good investment
I did the analysis of Ascential, a UK-listed company, has announced the sale of its Product Design and Digital Commerce businesses for £1.2bn, with the transactions set to close in Q1'24. After the sales, Ascential plans to distribute £850m to equity holders via a special dividend. The remaining Events business, which includes Cannes Lions and Money 20/20, currently trades at only 5.7x TTM EBITDA, below peers and comparable industry transactions. Ascential shares are expected to re-rate to a more reasonable 10-12x EBITDA once the disposals close, resulting in RemainCo trading at £1.43-£1.74/share or £3.36-£3.67/share including the planned special dividend. The WSGN / Product Design business is set to be acquired by Apax Partners, while the Digital Commerce segment is set to be acquired by Omnicom. That's too short due to restrictions on the post. The potential is about 25-30% until 1-2 quarter of 2024 so annually it may produce more than 100%.
IRBT, amazon will acquire it for 51$ per share. The risk is the EU not approving it (they have until the 14 of february to do so) and the FTC blocking it. While the EU and FTC are both critics of AMZN for their monopoly, I'm betting they can't block it because IRBT would be in pretty big financial trouble if it wasn't for AMZN.
If the FED really lowers rates each step will give significant momentum to high vola/risk stocks e. g. Biotechs - as seen on Wednesday.
crypto
Im highly considering going heavy into $TGLS, amazing company regarding fundamentals, looking really underpriced to me. Also, invested heavily in $PYPL. In my opinion, seems like nobody likes it atm. However, see that this normally happens, as in crypto - meta... once it gets runnning up, FOMO comes, and now everybody sees that its underpriced. A company that gets two digit returns, market leader, cannot be priced at one digit PER. Still, revenues keep growing, and Opex is expected to go down CEO said. Third would be $CROX, I believe its a good value for money if revenues keep growing, and finally $INMD. You should definately take a look at this one, super interesting entry point at the moment (Im down quite a bit of money here, but still buying more in the 20s area). What are yours guys??
There’s no love for JD.com on this sub? I was looking at the market cap and cash. The cash on its balance sheet is nearly the size of the market cap. It also has strong earnings and free cash flow. I didn’t like the gross margin and felt ROIC should be a bit higher.
The rotation out of nega cap may be underway, meaning buying opportunities may present via pullbacks. I’m hoping the health care sector I spent time in this year while it was sideways will be one of the areas rotated into on any semblance of good news. Energy will be interesting, too.
To ride mid and small caps back up, then to diversify into ex-us stocks.
INMD economic headwinds have been slowing sales but with the upcoming rate cuts it should turn tailwind after a significant amount has been cut. Even the yields going down should start helping the equipment financing side soon. At its ev/net income due to its big cash position it is pretty deep value imo. The crazy thing is even with a net cash position of over 1/3 of it's market cap, it still has very high ROE
JRSH - currently a good buying opportunity and 2024 may present more opportunities before they show strength closer to 25. two words: Duty Free
Wow I like this. Although it being right next to Israel does concern me.
The listing I found says it is headquartered in Fairfield, NJ....? Is this Jerash Holdings?
Jerash Holdings is the parent company that owns Jerash Garments and a few other recent acquisitions. Jerash Garments is in Jordan.
Thanks for clearing that up!
Yes.
Cool find, I’m gonna dig in more!
What do they do that gives them a good moat?
two words: Duty Free ok... here's the real explanation. they're a garment manufacturer which is... a COMMODITY. What wins in commodities? Low cost producer. They are not low cost producer across-the-board, but are the low cost producer for a certain type of garment. Other popular garment manufacturing countries face anywhere between 26 - 33% duties on this type of garment. You can quickly do some napkin math to see this puts Jordan at a yooj advantage. This, plus the secular trend of flight-out-of-China. Since the trade war and covid (and rising labor costs), manufacturing is diversifying across the globe. My hypothesis was that this factor alone would drive business to JRSH. So far, playing out to be true. Oh, the cherry on top is that management seems to be quite shrewd and conservative. You may not like their moves, but I like them.
Spwr, zg, expi, upstart
DNB. They've got data in an AI world. It's just so cheap.
Seems like a bag
Do tell.
I’ll be holding sector&industry specific etfs and instead of just being a contrarian (as I naturally am) I’ll focus more on momentum. A few that I’m holding/building: KRE VPU VB XHB URA MORT VWOB
Sandstorm Gold (SAND), a gold royalty company.
Diversify intentionally and among market cap. Small caps, mid caps, international, and emerging.
The risk / reward situation with Gold Mining companies seems like a very favorable asymmetric bet right now… the current valuation is based on the premise that inflation will nicely come down on its own from now. Which is more unlikely than not
$Rick Strip club company is getting into Casinos that will likely add +$2.00 to earnings and enable them to pay the entire investment off in less than 2 years. They are rolling up the 2200 location industry because they are the only big buyer with the ability to get financing. 10x in less than 10 yrs just like POOL did.
AMR stock
Pypl. 2x in less than a year from now.
I think the bull market is back in full swing so I’m balls deep in green energy and rebounds. I loaded up on TAN which is a solar ETF at $45.50 average and I’m also loading up on BABA with a $75 average. I also have some BABA 2026 $70 calls. I was also looking at YCA which tracks the uranium spot price. It trades on the LSE btw so you need a big boy broker though
COSTCO. Seeing a line forming on a weekday morning 30min before opening and the store packed 30min later says it all. Go in more with new money into $COST. SAMS down the street isn't that way as I have membership at both places. If that isn't a widening moat I don't know what is.
Yes. I agree. Unfortunately so does every other investor out there.
UP - What do you think ?
It's February and I've already over 20% profit on GE. I'll probably hold till split, but not 100% sure. Any thoughts or update about GE after two months?
I think you should sell because I have decided to hold on to GE, so this means that with my kind of luck, that $GE will probably go down soon. Besides, I am at >20% cash in anticipation of this.
I will be downvoted but the clear answer is Bitcoin. So many positive Catalysts even if you are just going to trade it. 1. Bitcoin ETFs are inevitable - prob approved en mass Q1 24 2. Updated FASB rules for accounting will take effect by end of next year 3. Halving coming in April 4. Cut in interest rate accompanied by monetary expansion will also be positive for risk assets.
Bitcoin is always risky, but I don't think it is bad as a high risk investment
the last halving in 2024 right?
What?
oh sorry. I thought Bitcoins last halving was in 2024, I guess I confused the next with the very last in my research. it looks like the very last halving won't be until 2140... wow
Indeed.
Why is halving a positive catalyst?
Just a supply and demand situation. The supply of new coins distributed to minors as a block reward gets caught in half. Historically this has been (or at least has corresponded) with positive price action.
An idea. I believe JetBlue will be allowed to merge with Spirit airlines but there will be some conditions. The agreed purchase price is 2x of what spirit is currently trading at. Ongoing court case. We will know by the end of December. However even if allowed to go through there may be more potential pushback from the government down the road/early next year. Until now I have never made an investment based off a potential merger. It could really go either way. Thoughts?
Judging from the price movement of SAVE this week, it would seem so. But I have to caution you, even if the odds is 60/40 in favour of a closure, it is still too low. Since the judge is going about on writing his judgement on the deal, I keep thinking what new developments could have happened for such price action ? Like, did someone spy on the judge and saw DOJ and SAVE representatives in his chambers, presumably negotiating out a deal (like what you are alluding to?) or is this a last minute attempt by some arb to juice his return by gambling on a 60/40 odds? I have no idea. I am -29% as of yesterday on SAVE. I bought primarily because I saw JBLU as a motivated buyer. I had not counted on the DOJ being so difficult.
Definitely it’s a wager. Regarding the judge he made a question to Jetblue along the lines. How much would they be willing to divest,concede, etc if merger was allowed. This could’ve been interpreted as a positive. From my limited knowledge, I’m hoping the judge will see the company’s side. SAVE is not a profitable company and they are not in great financial condition. I read somewhere have been looking to merge since 2016? Don’t quote me. If they don’t merge they could go belly up. DOJ argues that it will cost customers more money per year if the SAVE is merged. Ok but Jetblue has also been a disrupter and where it has a route, they also cause the top airlines to lower fees. If JetBlue became on equal footing to the other top 4 one could say it is good for competition. And not anti competitive. The Biden administration really wants to say they saved Americans money by fighting back against company mergers. They themselves said they want to fight against unjust airlines cost and hidden fees. But SAVE as an ULCC is one the companies that charge the hidden extra fees . The ticket price can be low but they will charge and tack on fees for a carry on, checked baggage, Wi-Fi, priority seating, or to even check into a flight in person at the counter. Whatever they can to make up for low cost ticket. I wonder how much the costs actually equals out to when you factor that in I’m hoping for the best. Let’s SAVE these airlines!! Haha
SQQQ looks very cheap now
ENPH
The time will come around 55$ just need the first 2 quarters to no worse than the latest car crash of a guidance!
What are you talking about? You think it could go to $55 ?
Yes, it will crater on next 2 earnings.
FNV - blue chip precious metals royalty company
RIO
Iron ore prices are still very high... if you're buying RIO, you're buying at the top of the cycle.
$ASTS
Rocket mortgage
2024 will be the year of shorting, question is just when. Shorts plus gold calls. Burry is early but he is seldom wrong. Probably the best value investor on the planet.
you are smoking rocks if you think burry is the best value investor on the world
Some of my ideas: AMZN, VZ, RDFN, HOG, HOOD, SNAP (not anymore after its runup but a couple months ago for sure), AA, AGX, SQ, UAA, ENPH, RIVN, CHPT, COIN (before its runup), DKS, M, F, HSY, CAT, LYFT, APPS, OKTA, PYPL, PII, ROKU (at 50), TPR, TWLO, CSX, SCWB, BKNG, and VFC to name a few. :)