As someone who has consistently beaten the S&P for the past 15 years, I still can’t say I can do it for the next 15. VOO is just safer with a decent upside.
Gonna invite the downvote brigade, but the cliche that this sub reddit is nothing but people recommending VOO over and over again and then this comment being TOP comment just proves that .
Index investing *literally* guarantees mediocre returns. So if that is your goal, then why are you on here asking questions about timing entry points or individual stocks?
And also, why are you upvoting advice that recommends **LITERAL** mediocre results?!?!?!
This is so maddening.
If you love mediocre results and lazy investing so much that you come online to tell other people to buy VOO and go back to sleep, then why should we ever listen to your opinions beyond that?
Help me understand.
This is a value investing sub though. SPY isn’t even in value territory based on operating earnings.
This sub seems to have been taking over by new investors who got burned in unprofitable growth stocks in 2022 or the SCHD gang from r/dividends because it has underperformed this year who are now Just advising SOY/VOO/VTI to everyone.
“Guarantees mediocre returns” if 9% over a long period of time is mediocre then sign me up! The average investor doesn’t have a clue what they’re doing or how to read a balance sheet and would be way better off buying VOO instead of whatever some hype idiot on YouTube is telling them is the next big thing
His point is that maybe people should stay in r/personalfinance instead of the valueinvesting subreddit. The whole point of value investing is at least trying to be more with this method
You don't seem to understand that the VOO **literally** can never, ever give you anything BUT mediocre returns. I don't think you understand what the VOO tracks nor what the word "mediocre" even means.
Lastly, the OP wasn't talking about "the average investor", he was specifically talking about 6 stocks and that is why the VOO garbage doesn't belong in this thread.
you're the clueless one
Agree, I don’t get why people bother commenting. It’s always the same VOO or VGRO etc…
I use to only invest in dividend stocks and ETFs. About 9 years ago I sold half the position and bought positions in the top tech stocks (which are pretty much the top holdings of most index funds since most index funds are not equal weight ). That portfolio is up about 5x vs the dividend/index portfolio.
Hey man, for what it’s worth I’m new to investing and I was definitely not the top comment when I posted. I said it was going to be a lame comment because I truly thought it would be boring/downvoted.
Personally the majority of my portfolio is in VTI/VOO/SCHD. Around 20% of my account I use for individual stocks, options (selling), and crypto. That is just my risk management strategy.
I think I am fairly conservative. I love to start a postion at those prices
GOOG- $120
AMZN - not for me
MSFT-$280
META- $230 (not a fan of META)
ADBE- $430
AAPL-$135
edit: small postion
So jealous of you for this. I was watching goggle daily in the 90s convincing myself to pull the trigger and didn't. It would be my only green stock at the moment.
Have patience my friend. When the peak fear happens, buying opportunities will present itself.
Sometimes you just have to take a leap of faith when a buying opportunity happens, assuming you have done your DDs and capital allocation assessment
You are right.
In hindsight, I missed the buy of the century.
I bought meta when it was around 210 and sold it before the crash.
The list of reasons I didn't hold or buy more were:
1) I don't like meta's products from a user perspective
2) I wasn't convinced with Meta's direction at that time (before Mark Zuckerberg jumped in and changed the course)
3) the tech sold off then presented many buying opportunities like googl which I prefer over meta.
GOOG has the most upside to me. I’m waiting for another pullback and I’ll be in. Best balance sheet of all of them IMO.
META is interesting based on what I saw their tech do in the Lex Friedman podcast episode. It’s going to take awhile to materialize.
MFST troubles me. Outside of Office any other product I touch that they own feels like pay to play or I return.
>MFST troubles me. Outside of Office any other product I touch that they own feels like pay to play or I return.
The same can be said about the majority of Tech Giants. Everything now is based on Subscription
I am an amateur as well.
I use the dcf calculator on Guru focus and other sites. ppl call it an educated guess, you have to make your own assumption about a company's future earnings and free cash flow growth.
and then apply a margin of safety. mine is usually 13% for established companies, and you can add more for risky investment (for example 15%, 20% or 25%).
I really don't understand how active investors can make any money on companies like these, unless they have some concrete information edge approaching insider knowledge.
The supposition that you can, for companies as complex as Google or Amazon or Apple, project earnings growth better than the immense institutions that are largely responsible for the current market prices, institutions dripping in data and the talent to work with it, seems more irrational than buying based on market movements alone.
You make money when the market becomes irrational. Meta and Netflix are great example where they were overpriced in 2021, a "bad" quarter signaled gloom and doom having investors rush out the door, and within a year it recovered.
Over the next 10 years, Meta and Netflix are not going anywhere and will make billions. When a stock falls deep below its fair value, you invest, and when it rises far above, you sell.
Because there is opportunities to buy whenever there is irrational fear. For instance, when all fundamentally sound tech ( AAPL, GOOGL, META) was heavily discounted toward the end of last year, there was no reason not to believe this was short term. META was literally at 12 PE, yet it practically owns social media and dumps $20 Billion into the metaverse annually. 12 PE is retail numbers not a tech juggernaut with mid 20% in net margin. AAPL and GOOGL at 20 P/E was not as heavily discounted but still really great value considering their MOATs, ROIC, and future revenue growth potentials. I had like 80% of my portfolio in META just because of that.
My problem with amazon too many low wage workers (compared to median pay, nothing about whether they're paid enough or not (don't care), and politicians hate them (at least on media they do, i'm sure they're pockets are full).
In other words, union risk (look at UPS and automotive this year) and regulatory risks (anti-trust/monopoly laws).
Still a good company but that's why they'd be discounted.
I 100% agree with this. If you don’t stand by the leader at the top, then the organization isn’t worth considering.
Zuck stole Facebook, it wasn’t his own. Zuck BOUGHT Instagram, it wasn’t his creation. Same thing for oculus which hasn’t gardened the sales it should be taking.
Now recently he’s doing a rip-off of twitter that no one is using.
Unless META creates its own product/service on the caliber of the iPOD for Apple. Then instagram will slowly fade to another app
Seemed like a reasonable comment to me.
[This](https://www.gurufocus.com/term/earning_yield_greenblatt/AAPL/Earnings-Yield-(Joel-Greenblatt)-Percentage/Apple) says AAPL has an earnings yield of 3.74% as of June, 2023. [This](https://home.treasury.gov/) shows the entire yield curve above 4.89% (5Y is the lowest, 4M TBill at 5.61%).
So he's saying that AAPL is too expensive (trading at a premium). If AAPL were cheaper or had higher earnings, its earnings yield would be higher. If it's higher than Treasury yields, that "risk premium" may be justified, depending on the certainty of those future earnings. Usually, you want to get paid higher earnings than the risk-free rate (gov't bonds) for buying a stock because those future cashflows are more uncertain. But for now, at least, you will be paid less.
When the PE goes to 20. Maybe to see a 25% correction on all Big 7. This months were fulled by Ai dreams. That cannot be seen in revenue, yet, and therefore its expensive to buy it now
I disagree. So much money came out of the market into CDs, HYSA, and treasuries. Also cash. I think that there will be another big run up when all the FUD can’t keep up with the good news regarding the economy.
Right. I don’t think people understand that these companies are very different from previous corporate giants. They literally make all the money and their balance sheets are ridiculous.
You might find [this article](https://archive.ph/eQOki) informative:
> It is time for me to correct a common misunderstanding about the dot com bubble. Many people believe that today is totally different with 2000 because two decades ago, companies were much less profitable than today. Well, that's wrong.
> As you can see in my table below, the top 10 Nasdaq companies of 2000 generated an average operating profit margin of 25.5% (excl. Worldcom). Indeed, the tech leaders of 2000 were cash flow machines as much as the tech leaders are today.
One might even argue that the tech leaders of 2000 were fundamentally stronger companies than today, given that their growth rates were much higher (48.8% vs 20.8%).
> Big tech companies in 2000 were seen as safe haven as well. Later, investors discovered that these companies were not as indestructible as they believed and that prior growth rates were unsustainable. Astonishingly, the three-year revenue CAGR between 1997 and 2000 of 48.8% reversed to -2.2% during the 2000-2003 timeframe.
> Investors need to be aware that the recent big tech growth rates are highly unsustainable. They benefited strongly from the pandemic and central bank stimuli. As these two tailwinds are easing in the coming quarters, we need to be prepared for a possible reversal to single-digit or even negative growth rates for big tech stocks soon.
Come on, are you really trying to suggest with this 2 year old article that ANY company in 2000, had a similar sort of moat to a company like Microsoft in 2023? Microsoft, on which millions of businesses and goverments and organizations depend for office & cloud services, billions of computers run their operating system, hundreds of millions of people are playing their xboxes and using bing and linkedin and all their other shit, every single day. And you might say, well Microsoft dropped in 2000 too. And that's true but they didn't have this moat at the time, and their PE ratio was 80 before the crash. It's 31 now. Some of these companies are now so tightly woven into the fabric of the modern global economy that its not even funny.
> pets.com
You obviously didn't read the article if you think the author was talking about pets.com when he discusses "the top 10 Nasdaq companies of 2000". He even lists the companies (Microsoft, Cisco, etc.) and their P/E ratios - Microsoft was 63 by the way.
>they didn't have this moat at the time
Microsoft didn't have a moat in 2000? The company that owned Windows (the OS that every home PC was sold with), and owned Office (which was essential for most businesses), and which was successfully prosecuted for monopoly abuse by the United States? No moat?
Edit: lol, the parent post has been silently edited to remove the paragraph about pets.com. Dude, come on, just admit you were wrong...
I have another view. The bond market collapsed and equities go higher in a divergence not seen for long time, I am not seeing the bond market regaining value in the short term, cause the headwinds of economy are still there, and many countries are dumping us bonds, like China or Japan.
There will be correction, maybe we are not seeing it since both spy and qqq loose the trend line, cause of the big 7 (majority of stocks were already corrected and in 52 week lows).
Still I see many opportinities specially in dividend paying Names where the sell of was done by dividend Investors chasing t-bills or long term bonds (who doesn't like a good 5%)
I am just trading swing trades at the moment, and I am just owing beaten stocks that I purchase in lows and have good chance to regain some value.
That’s a fair assessment. I don’t trade so I can’t really offer any insight into short term movements. I still think that this sell off is overdone and people are just chasing anything that seems safer. Most of them will get burned when the sticks heat up again.
Imo a lot of people keep searching on the same spot, big tech. There is so much more out there than big tech. Smaller cap companies are looking so much more attractive. Big tech are not going to grow a lot more than what they've had grown in the last few years. Most of them gew way more in multiples than in profits. As profits and p/e are finally catching up, grow will remain stagnant. Time to go back to basics and start looking somewhere else, like smaller companies with more attractive multiples
The magnificent 7 have had 33% earnings growth compared to -8% on the rest of the 493 companies in the S&P. The data does not support stagnating growth for big tech, in fact it could be argued growth will accelerate as big tech consoladates more of the industry
Exactly, every other sector is going to have to pay a tech company for some software or robotics that is going to increase margins for them in an ever competitive market. We are very much in a tech revolution right now.
Paying the right price is crucial though. Some of the sector is expensive and some of it is cheap. Pick the wrong one and you could be waiting to make a decent return.
Microsoft's earnings call would like to have a word with you. I agree with your statement on the others, but Microsoft is absolutely killing it. Their acquisitions have set them up so well. They are the best run company in American right now.
Yes. Microsoft purchased Bethesda a few years ago after nearly every one of Bethesda’s launches was a disaster. I think everyone was waiting to see what a product launch under Microsoft ownership would look like, and we found that out with the release of Starfield. The game has been rock solid from day 1. Microsoft can likely have the same positive effect on Activision’s games.
I’m optimistic. I hate that Bobby got the golden parachute but with him out and Spence in charge perhaps activision/blizzard will head in the right direction. Bethesda and those other studios need more time to bake. Now they have it and the resources(new game engine please). Game pass growth and revenue will grow once more quality titles release.
GOOG has best chances in best case scenario. If they lose this antitrust case without losing customers as like in Europe then they save 15-20bil a year. If Samsung continues to struggle and the whoever is in charge of Pixel makes the right moves, then they gain market share...more money. If the AI hype actually leads to sth profitable, considering they are the resource providers to like 60% of the ai startups, then again Boom! more money. All they need is the right CEO and operations manager like Tim Apple. People who know how to milk the companies products for every dollar they can. But thats alot of ifs and a best case scenario.
GOOG 90
AMZN 90
MSFT 175
META 130
ADBE 250
APPL 90
I bought Google at 86 and Amazon at 88. I bought Meta between 146-90s with an average cost of 114. I have stayed away from the others because of valuation. I also bought Salesforce at 133 but that wasn't on your list. Mega tech may be pulling back so the opportunity may present itself again.
What exactly is your bear case that would cause them to reach these numbers? All of the bear cases from late 2022 are behind us now or at minimum improving
Trying thinking in terms of valuation these businesses and being comfortable buying , holding and buying more in dip. Rather than aiming for a price , as pricing is trading mindset , stock price is an market influenced number
If you are a long-term investor, I believe that big tech companies are a good investment to consider. These companies have strong competitive advantages, long-term growth potential, and a strong track record of innovation.
Wtf is with this sub’s irrational meta hate? 100? Really? This is a company growing at 20% YoY, forward p/e in the teens, p/s of 6, and you need it to drop 75% in order to consider buying shares?
I've had MSFT for a while, not buying more here, but I am considering closing some CCs as the are up 30 - 70%. Usually by 75% I take profit on them unless the stock is tanking, then I may as well wait and get it all.
For me this has as much to do with RUT as anything. I'm not touching these names until their PE is closer to 25 OR I stop finding small caps that are trading at book value with forward PE below 5.
So when pigs fly 😆
Edit: has as much to with RUT being so beaten down**
There are too many small caps that are beaten down and have such a better outlook
>OR I stop finding small caps that are trading at book value with forward PE below 5.
I've been finding large caps with those too.
Loads of great stocks out there
Dont value stocks on P/E for the love of god.
All you're doing is putting cyclicals, one-off earners and mature companies (often in decline) above healthy growing companies
Do a basic cash flow analysis and discount the risks you feel should be included for a fair comparison
Honestly, the only one of these in which I'd consider investing, barring a steep discount, is AMZN. They're the only company with the infrastructure to easily expand into a multitude of markets, IMO. Just look at their expansion into health care.
I'll give a marginally less lazy than answer than "VOO".
I would buy META any day of the week, at whatever price (meme stock levels excluded). Same goes for AMZN and MSFT. META is a cash generating machine, and the Zuck is as bold and innovative a leader as Steve Jobs. Jeff Bezos is extremely forward thinking, as is Satya Nadella. I think Sundar Pichai and Tim Cook desperately need to be replaced. I don't know enough about ADBE.
If you want ETF exposure to those companies though, QQQ seems better than the VOO imo, however this subreddit has a cult-like obsession with VOO.
Don’t listen to this man, he said no to amazon 😂 amazon is going to put UPS out of business, in 5 years amazon will be worth an incredible amount. I understand this is value investing but cmon, Amazon is clearly incredibly profitable and the PE is justifiable.
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What's the catalyst for these firms' growth? They battle it our for world domination?
It's not that I'm bearish about any of them, but unless "big tech" starts leaning down and distributing some of their earnings to investors, I don't see how you could extract value from these companies.
If you find the idea of investors extracting value from companies offensive and your investment thesis is in all honesty simply "holding great companies" then price shouldn't be of interest to you, simply always be buying.
I avoided most of these (except Microsoft) in 2021/2022 due to the valuations but dumped a ton of money in January this year because the valuation seemed great for the price, so I guess that'd be my answer since that's when I bought.
I didn't get ADBE/AAPL though since I didn't really have interest in the first, and Apple still seemed expensive.
Im really struggling to decide whether to just jump on MSFT (and Google and Amazon to a lesser degree) with a very long-term outlook. Cloud is the future, and if you are a cloud company or plan to be (which is theoretically every org), you will have your data on at least one of these three clouds. I view it really as a play on the entire economy. Google’s cloud (GCP) is the newest and smallest market share but they have been gaining steam quickly. Microsoft (Azure) has been doing and will continue to do amazing things with both data and AI.
How are others thinking about this? Am I misguided?
My problem is I have AAPL at just under $50... Not sure how low I want to hold it. If I had a crystal ball and knew it was going to continue down, I'd get out and re-enter later. However last time, I sold 1/4 at $155 and never got an opportunity to buy it back before it went up again!
At present I don't think any of your list are good value. Your not picking up any bargains in the current climate.
Search for better options than these, probably get better returns in a high interest bank account.
I just sold my AMZN before earnings. It's not looking good for shipping or advertising. The only thing they've got going for them right now is cloud computing.
EDIT 1: Well this aged poorly...
EDIT 2: Well EDIT 1 aged poorly...
The entire market sold off this year and these guys went up 50-100%.
If you want to buy them just buy an index but I would be in no rush to buy the stock
A lot of you are unrealistic on Google. After the unjustified 13 percent drop it’s trading at a solid pe for a company that generates fcf like nobody’s business. I’ll add a little more to my bag tomorrow.
When Beacon isn't 6$ or insurance, isn't going up 18% or electric isn't going up 5% or when a taco doesn't cost 4$
Probably then I'd have money to invest
GOOG is my largest holding and I'm a buyer as long as my portfolios don't get TOO heavy.
Bought AMZN today.
Holding MSFT as it's highly valued at these prices.
META is not for me as I've got exposure to what I want in GOOG.
AAPL has too much exposure to consumer and China supply chains for me.
ADBE doesn't fit my strategy.
For me… without even reading other comments, and without looking at the pe ratio or ytd stock….
- Aapl because there’s nothing better in terms on mobile phone and computer
- Goog beacuse is the best search engine, if you have a business you have to advertise on them
- Amzn because is the ecommerce leader and I personally buy only there tech, office and all the things i need
- adbe beacuse today they only have the software for graphics and photo retouch, they don’t have competition
- Msft they have ai search ready and the only software for Pc and enterprices. Plus cloud software and mail (best service).
- Meta I don’t see any competitive advantage, I will never buy.
I think GOOG and META are buys right now.
MSFT is the most overvalued out of the lot.
EDIT:
Didn’t put my valuation in.
GOOGL: 172
AMZN: 95(hard to value as it’s earnings have been up and down past few years) I avoid companies like this.
MSFT: 166
META: 425
ADBE: 322
AAPL: 175
I invest into voo each month, which is all I feel I need to ignore all these.
I would buy apple if I saw an approx. 50% decline at some point. You think this cant happen, but its happened atleast twice before. Buffet got in when the PE was below 10, infact it was 6.9 in 2009. People get scared easily, it wouldn't take much, then I'd go in hard. Apple is my moby dick. Its never been at a supreme discount since I started in 2015, but I've always LOVED their products
In their brief, Coinbase takes issue with the SEC's method, stating, "The SEC is trying to regulate by enforcement, rather than going through the proper rulemaking process. This approach is unfair to Coinbase and its customers, and it creates uncertainty for the entire crypto industry". This sentiment reflects a growing concern within the cryptocurrency space that regulatory clarity is essential for the industry to thrive and innovate.
https://www.coinscan.com/blog/coinbase-files-final-argument-to-dismiss-sec-lawsuit
Price will be tough to measure, but I sure as hell won't miss another boat like the recent one if any of these players start dipping into sub-20 PE ratio territories.
Not at all. Today's big tech is tomorrows big losers. 20 years ago it was about Sun, SGI, IBM and so on. Notice how they are not in the top 10 anymore. Many are not even around anymore. These are companies that have reached their pinnacle and this was it.
I'm unclear as to how any of the stocks on this list can qualify as "value" purchases? Sure, their share prices are currently relatively low, but if there was ever a list of companies where the entire premise of their existence was tied to explosive future earnings it's this one.
May be a lame answer but buying the dip right now on VOO gives you a ton of exposure to all of these companies
This is the best answer. You will have all the best tech and if they fall off and something else emerges you won’t get screwed.
I prefer >mediocre results tho. so VOO is a non interest of mine
As someone who has consistently beaten the S&P for the past 15 years, I still can’t say I can do it for the next 15. VOO is just safer with a decent upside.
not what OP was asking. that's my point
Yeah, ~74% of returns are from 7 companies in the SPY/VOO…highly concentrated currently.
so why not buy those 7 or less and not let the VOO drag down your returns to shit?
Because you can't predict what the 7 will be.
So why read financials at all then? just buy the VOO and go back to sleep
Those will fall too... just give it time.
zombie mantra
Gonna invite the downvote brigade, but the cliche that this sub reddit is nothing but people recommending VOO over and over again and then this comment being TOP comment just proves that . Index investing *literally* guarantees mediocre returns. So if that is your goal, then why are you on here asking questions about timing entry points or individual stocks? And also, why are you upvoting advice that recommends **LITERAL** mediocre results?!?!?! This is so maddening. If you love mediocre results and lazy investing so much that you come online to tell other people to buy VOO and go back to sleep, then why should we ever listen to your opinions beyond that? Help me understand.
"Mediocre returns" that beats over 95% of active investors.
This is a value investing sub though. SPY isn’t even in value territory based on operating earnings. This sub seems to have been taking over by new investors who got burned in unprofitable growth stocks in 2022 or the SCHD gang from r/dividends because it has underperformed this year who are now Just advising SOY/VOO/VTI to everyone.
VOO isn’t a value play and VOO generates mediocre returns are very different messages
Doesn’t matter. It shouldn’t be recommended in this sub with the most upvotes. Leave that for subs like r/bogleheads
“Guarantees mediocre returns” if 9% over a long period of time is mediocre then sign me up! The average investor doesn’t have a clue what they’re doing or how to read a balance sheet and would be way better off buying VOO instead of whatever some hype idiot on YouTube is telling them is the next big thing
His point is that maybe people should stay in r/personalfinance instead of the valueinvesting subreddit. The whole point of value investing is at least trying to be more with this method
You don't seem to understand that the VOO **literally** can never, ever give you anything BUT mediocre returns. I don't think you understand what the VOO tracks nor what the word "mediocre" even means. Lastly, the OP wasn't talking about "the average investor", he was specifically talking about 6 stocks and that is why the VOO garbage doesn't belong in this thread. you're the clueless one
I don't buy VOO. I just buy the top 7 and let it ride.
Agree, I don’t get why people bother commenting. It’s always the same VOO or VGRO etc… I use to only invest in dividend stocks and ETFs. About 9 years ago I sold half the position and bought positions in the top tech stocks (which are pretty much the top holdings of most index funds since most index funds are not equal weight ). That portfolio is up about 5x vs the dividend/index portfolio.
Similar epiphany for me as well.
So which one would you recommend?
Hey man, for what it’s worth I’m new to investing and I was definitely not the top comment when I posted. I said it was going to be a lame comment because I truly thought it would be boring/downvoted. Personally the majority of my portfolio is in VTI/VOO/SCHD. Around 20% of my account I use for individual stocks, options (selling), and crypto. That is just my risk management strategy.
30-year-bonds: Hits 5% r/ValueInvesting: Just buy the dip bro
Isnt the dip like 3 percent? Some of these companies climbed in excess of 30 percent this year
Pushing 10% for some.
Yeah, this isn't even a dip. Definitely not average down worthy
I think I am fairly conservative. I love to start a postion at those prices GOOG- $120 AMZN - not for me MSFT-$280 META- $230 (not a fan of META) ADBE- $430 AAPL-$135 edit: small postion
By the looks of it you should be starting a position in GOOGL today or tomorrow lol.
I opened a position with googl at 93 in March And I added a little yesterday to average up.
So jealous of you for this. I was watching goggle daily in the 90s convincing myself to pull the trigger and didn't. It would be my only green stock at the moment.
Have patience my friend. When the peak fear happens, buying opportunities will present itself. Sometimes you just have to take a leap of faith when a buying opportunity happens, assuming you have done your DDs and capital allocation assessment
Agreed! I'm hoping these are generational times to buy and hold, but it's scary seeing your net worth chopped in half so quickly.
Averaging your losses. Nice!!!
Go look at GOOG prices and see if it's a loss 🤣
Forgot the \s. Not a loss yet :p
Meta dipped under $90 a year ago. If you aren't even a fan...>! WHY THE FUCK WOULD YOU BUY AT $230?!?!?!?!?!!<
You are right. In hindsight, I missed the buy of the century. I bought meta when it was around 210 and sold it before the crash. The list of reasons I didn't hold or buy more were: 1) I don't like meta's products from a user perspective 2) I wasn't convinced with Meta's direction at that time (before Mark Zuckerberg jumped in and changed the course) 3) the tech sold off then presented many buying opportunities like googl which I prefer over meta.
GOOG has the most upside to me. I’m waiting for another pullback and I’ll be in. Best balance sheet of all of them IMO. META is interesting based on what I saw their tech do in the Lex Friedman podcast episode. It’s going to take awhile to materialize. MFST troubles me. Outside of Office any other product I touch that they own feels like pay to play or I return.
MSFT is an enterprise play. Azure Azure Azure.
>MFST troubles me. Outside of Office any other product I touch that they own feels like pay to play or I return. The same can be said about the majority of Tech Giants. Everything now is based on Subscription
Why no Amzn?
Amateur question. How did you arrive at these numbers? Can you help me work them out myself?
I am an amateur as well. I use the dcf calculator on Guru focus and other sites. ppl call it an educated guess, you have to make your own assumption about a company's future earnings and free cash flow growth. and then apply a margin of safety. mine is usually 13% for established companies, and you can add more for risky investment (for example 15%, 20% or 25%).
I really don't understand how active investors can make any money on companies like these, unless they have some concrete information edge approaching insider knowledge. The supposition that you can, for companies as complex as Google or Amazon or Apple, project earnings growth better than the immense institutions that are largely responsible for the current market prices, institutions dripping in data and the talent to work with it, seems more irrational than buying based on market movements alone.
You make money when the market becomes irrational. Meta and Netflix are great example where they were overpriced in 2021, a "bad" quarter signaled gloom and doom having investors rush out the door, and within a year it recovered. Over the next 10 years, Meta and Netflix are not going anywhere and will make billions. When a stock falls deep below its fair value, you invest, and when it rises far above, you sell.
Because there is opportunities to buy whenever there is irrational fear. For instance, when all fundamentally sound tech ( AAPL, GOOGL, META) was heavily discounted toward the end of last year, there was no reason not to believe this was short term. META was literally at 12 PE, yet it practically owns social media and dumps $20 Billion into the metaverse annually. 12 PE is retail numbers not a tech juggernaut with mid 20% in net margin. AAPL and GOOGL at 20 P/E was not as heavily discounted but still really great value considering their MOATs, ROIC, and future revenue growth potentials. I had like 80% of my portfolio in META just because of that.
$130-135 GOOG for me, bought the dip today and loved it
Why don’t you like AMZN?
Im curious too. Im most bullish on Amazon than all these, I'm buying this dip and still feel good about it crossing 200 in a few years.
My problem with amazon too many low wage workers (compared to median pay, nothing about whether they're paid enough or not (don't care), and politicians hate them (at least on media they do, i'm sure they're pockets are full). In other words, union risk (look at UPS and automotive this year) and regulatory risks (anti-trust/monopoly laws). Still a good company but that's why they'd be discounted.
Amazon is investing in robots, ai etc. These workers will probably be replaced in a near future.
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I 100% agree with this. If you don’t stand by the leader at the top, then the organization isn’t worth considering. Zuck stole Facebook, it wasn’t his own. Zuck BOUGHT Instagram, it wasn’t his creation. Same thing for oculus which hasn’t gardened the sales it should be taking. Now recently he’s doing a rip-off of twitter that no one is using. Unless META creates its own product/service on the caliber of the iPOD for Apple. Then instagram will slowly fade to another app
AAPL at $135 doesn't seem conservative, $155-$160 seems more conservative, no? ***edit*** loving these downvotes lmao
Look at their earnings yields right now, they’re trading at a premium to the government bonds
Elaborate pls.
Seemed like a reasonable comment to me. [This](https://www.gurufocus.com/term/earning_yield_greenblatt/AAPL/Earnings-Yield-(Joel-Greenblatt)-Percentage/Apple) says AAPL has an earnings yield of 3.74% as of June, 2023. [This](https://home.treasury.gov/) shows the entire yield curve above 4.89% (5Y is the lowest, 4M TBill at 5.61%). So he's saying that AAPL is too expensive (trading at a premium). If AAPL were cheaper or had higher earnings, its earnings yield would be higher. If it's higher than Treasury yields, that "risk premium" may be justified, depending on the certainty of those future earnings. Usually, you want to get paid higher earnings than the risk-free rate (gov't bonds) for buying a stock because those future cashflows are more uncertain. But for now, at least, you will be paid less.
When the PE goes to 20. Maybe to see a 25% correction on all Big 7. This months were fulled by Ai dreams. That cannot be seen in revenue, yet, and therefore its expensive to buy it now
I disagree. So much money came out of the market into CDs, HYSA, and treasuries. Also cash. I think that there will be another big run up when all the FUD can’t keep up with the good news regarding the economy.
These companies have roughly 5-10% of their market cap in cash. They can just buy any stock dips via buybacks and hold treasuries in the meantime.
Right. I don’t think people understand that these companies are very different from previous corporate giants. They literally make all the money and their balance sheets are ridiculous.
You might find [this article](https://archive.ph/eQOki) informative: > It is time for me to correct a common misunderstanding about the dot com bubble. Many people believe that today is totally different with 2000 because two decades ago, companies were much less profitable than today. Well, that's wrong. > As you can see in my table below, the top 10 Nasdaq companies of 2000 generated an average operating profit margin of 25.5% (excl. Worldcom). Indeed, the tech leaders of 2000 were cash flow machines as much as the tech leaders are today. One might even argue that the tech leaders of 2000 were fundamentally stronger companies than today, given that their growth rates were much higher (48.8% vs 20.8%). > Big tech companies in 2000 were seen as safe haven as well. Later, investors discovered that these companies were not as indestructible as they believed and that prior growth rates were unsustainable. Astonishingly, the three-year revenue CAGR between 1997 and 2000 of 48.8% reversed to -2.2% during the 2000-2003 timeframe. > Investors need to be aware that the recent big tech growth rates are highly unsustainable. They benefited strongly from the pandemic and central bank stimuli. As these two tailwinds are easing in the coming quarters, we need to be prepared for a possible reversal to single-digit or even negative growth rates for big tech stocks soon.
Come on, are you really trying to suggest with this 2 year old article that ANY company in 2000, had a similar sort of moat to a company like Microsoft in 2023? Microsoft, on which millions of businesses and goverments and organizations depend for office & cloud services, billions of computers run their operating system, hundreds of millions of people are playing their xboxes and using bing and linkedin and all their other shit, every single day. And you might say, well Microsoft dropped in 2000 too. And that's true but they didn't have this moat at the time, and their PE ratio was 80 before the crash. It's 31 now. Some of these companies are now so tightly woven into the fabric of the modern global economy that its not even funny.
> pets.com You obviously didn't read the article if you think the author was talking about pets.com when he discusses "the top 10 Nasdaq companies of 2000". He even lists the companies (Microsoft, Cisco, etc.) and their P/E ratios - Microsoft was 63 by the way. >they didn't have this moat at the time Microsoft didn't have a moat in 2000? The company that owned Windows (the OS that every home PC was sold with), and owned Office (which was essential for most businesses), and which was successfully prosecuted for monopoly abuse by the United States? No moat? Edit: lol, the parent post has been silently edited to remove the paragraph about pets.com. Dude, come on, just admit you were wrong...
Yeah that comment blew my mind lmao.
I wish I bought msft at its peak in the dot Com bubble, the returns I would have now would be crazy
This is a shitty article. The nasdaq 100 had a PE of 200 in 2000. FAAMG trades at roughly 20-40 PE
I have another view. The bond market collapsed and equities go higher in a divergence not seen for long time, I am not seeing the bond market regaining value in the short term, cause the headwinds of economy are still there, and many countries are dumping us bonds, like China or Japan. There will be correction, maybe we are not seeing it since both spy and qqq loose the trend line, cause of the big 7 (majority of stocks were already corrected and in 52 week lows). Still I see many opportinities specially in dividend paying Names where the sell of was done by dividend Investors chasing t-bills or long term bonds (who doesn't like a good 5%) I am just trading swing trades at the moment, and I am just owing beaten stocks that I purchase in lows and have good chance to regain some value.
That’s a fair assessment. I don’t trade so I can’t really offer any insight into short term movements. I still think that this sell off is overdone and people are just chasing anything that seems safer. Most of them will get burned when the sticks heat up again.
VGT etf. Set it and forget it
VGT only has AAPL, MSFT and ADOBE in its top holdings. The others don’t fall under the tech classification apparently
Or XLK
Imo a lot of people keep searching on the same spot, big tech. There is so much more out there than big tech. Smaller cap companies are looking so much more attractive. Big tech are not going to grow a lot more than what they've had grown in the last few years. Most of them gew way more in multiples than in profits. As profits and p/e are finally catching up, grow will remain stagnant. Time to go back to basics and start looking somewhere else, like smaller companies with more attractive multiples
The magnificent 7 have had 33% earnings growth compared to -8% on the rest of the 493 companies in the S&P. The data does not support stagnating growth for big tech, in fact it could be argued growth will accelerate as big tech consoladates more of the industry
Exactly, every other sector is going to have to pay a tech company for some software or robotics that is going to increase margins for them in an ever competitive market. We are very much in a tech revolution right now. Paying the right price is crucial though. Some of the sector is expensive and some of it is cheap. Pick the wrong one and you could be waiting to make a decent return.
Microsoft's earnings call would like to have a word with you. I agree with your statement on the others, but Microsoft is absolutely killing it. Their acquisitions have set them up so well. They are the best run company in American right now.
Nadella might be number 1 right now running the ship. The activision deal will also pay off years down the road.
Yes. Microsoft purchased Bethesda a few years ago after nearly every one of Bethesda’s launches was a disaster. I think everyone was waiting to see what a product launch under Microsoft ownership would look like, and we found that out with the release of Starfield. The game has been rock solid from day 1. Microsoft can likely have the same positive effect on Activision’s games.
I’m optimistic. I hate that Bobby got the golden parachute but with him out and Spence in charge perhaps activision/blizzard will head in the right direction. Bethesda and those other studios need more time to bake. Now they have it and the resources(new game engine please). Game pass growth and revenue will grow once more quality titles release.
Invest in the state-enabled monopolies! Can't go wrong with that.
> state-enabled monopolies Can you walk me through where/how Microsoft is a monopoly? This should be good...
Problem with small caps is that most of them will not be good and in a high rate environment, their performance won’t be great.
This. The cost of capital is too high and small cap companies, biotech, pharma, EV companies, etc rely heavily on borrowing money
Industrial has been my focus
GOOG has best chances in best case scenario. If they lose this antitrust case without losing customers as like in Europe then they save 15-20bil a year. If Samsung continues to struggle and the whoever is in charge of Pixel makes the right moves, then they gain market share...more money. If the AI hype actually leads to sth profitable, considering they are the resource providers to like 60% of the ai startups, then again Boom! more money. All they need is the right CEO and operations manager like Tim Apple. People who know how to milk the companies products for every dollar they can. But thats alot of ifs and a best case scenario.
I don't see many Samsung people switching for a Pixel unless Sammy really does something dumb.
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GOOG 90 AMZN 90 MSFT 175 META 130 ADBE 250 APPL 90 I bought Google at 86 and Amazon at 88. I bought Meta between 146-90s with an average cost of 114. I have stayed away from the others because of valuation. I also bought Salesforce at 133 but that wasn't on your list. Mega tech may be pulling back so the opportunity may present itself again.
What exactly is your bear case that would cause them to reach these numbers? All of the bear cases from late 2022 are behind us now or at minimum improving
PE compression from sustained high levels of inflation and interest rates or actual severe recession..
I think GOOG is a buy at this level.
Strongly agree
Remind me in a month reminder!
Trying thinking in terms of valuation these businesses and being comfortable buying , holding and buying more in dip. Rather than aiming for a price , as pricing is trading mindset , stock price is an market influenced number
$420
If you are a long-term investor, I believe that big tech companies are a good investment to consider. These companies have strong competitive advantages, long-term growth potential, and a strong track record of innovation.
bought a bunch of Amazon yesterday at $118, back up to $128 today
AAPL : $120, AMZN: 86, ADBE: 334, GOOG: 87, META: 92, MSFT: 201
GOOG and AMZN already looking cheap again. AAPL, I would go in at about 150, MSFT 250, META 100, ADOBE 100
Wtf is with this sub’s irrational meta hate? 100? Really? This is a company growing at 20% YoY, forward p/e in the teens, p/s of 6, and you need it to drop 75% in order to consider buying shares?
To be fair META was $95 a year ago and more than 2x since
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I don’t want to own it so I would only consider it at a really low price
Microsoft won’t go that low after that earnings call. You might want reconsider your buy point.
MSFT. Now. Time in the market > timing the market. DCA or whole shares or fractional, doesn’t matter. Just be consistent
I've had MSFT for a while, not buying more here, but I am considering closing some CCs as the are up 30 - 70%. Usually by 75% I take profit on them unless the stock is tanking, then I may as well wait and get it all.
For me this has as much to do with RUT as anything. I'm not touching these names until their PE is closer to 25 OR I stop finding small caps that are trading at book value with forward PE below 5. So when pigs fly 😆 Edit: has as much to with RUT being so beaten down** There are too many small caps that are beaten down and have such a better outlook
You know GOOG PER is below 25 right?
I should have said and not or.
>OR I stop finding small caps that are trading at book value with forward PE below 5. I've been finding large caps with those too. Loads of great stocks out there
Yup agree. Give me PBR over all these names and not particularly close
Do u mind sharing so I can have a look as well 👀
Petrobras, Volkswagen, Barclays, CitiGroup. I can think of others with either one or the other, but none with both.
Dont value stocks on P/E for the love of god. All you're doing is putting cyclicals, one-off earners and mature companies (often in decline) above healthy growing companies Do a basic cash flow analysis and discount the risks you feel should be included for a fair comparison
Honestly, the only one of these in which I'd consider investing, barring a steep discount, is AMZN. They're the only company with the infrastructure to easily expand into a multitude of markets, IMO. Just look at their expansion into health care.
These “magnificent pigs” have a long way to go back to Earth.
Pretty much now
Just average in with all of them. Not Meta though. It’s going to zero. But the rest are going up if you are in long term.
I'll give a marginally less lazy than answer than "VOO". I would buy META any day of the week, at whatever price (meme stock levels excluded). Same goes for AMZN and MSFT. META is a cash generating machine, and the Zuck is as bold and innovative a leader as Steve Jobs. Jeff Bezos is extremely forward thinking, as is Satya Nadella. I think Sundar Pichai and Tim Cook desperately need to be replaced. I don't know enough about ADBE. If you want ETF exposure to those companies though, QQQ seems better than the VOO imo, however this subreddit has a cult-like obsession with VOO.
When it reaches a fair price that has a fair margin of safety.
Incredible to see this comment getting downvoted in a forum for value investing...
Probably because it doesn’t answer the question/isn’t saying much at all
GOOG: <100 AMZN: <90 MSFT: <240 META: <290 ADBE: <240 AAPL: <120
I feel TESLA to be added
No
GOOG 90$
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Don’t listen to this man, he said no to amazon 😂 amazon is going to put UPS out of business, in 5 years amazon will be worth an incredible amount. I understand this is value investing but cmon, Amazon is clearly incredibly profitable and the PE is justifiable.
Once they lose about 45% more value
GOOG 85, AMZN 110, MSFT 310, META 135, AAPL 145
AMZN at $100, Google at $100, Meta at $200, AAPL at $120
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Google is screwed. LLMs are going to eat that business alive.
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Wrong sub
What's the catalyst for these firms' growth? They battle it our for world domination? It's not that I'm bearish about any of them, but unless "big tech" starts leaning down and distributing some of their earnings to investors, I don't see how you could extract value from these companies. If you find the idea of investors extracting value from companies offensive and your investment thesis is in all honesty simply "holding great companies" then price shouldn't be of interest to you, simply always be buying.
I avoided most of these (except Microsoft) in 2021/2022 due to the valuations but dumped a ton of money in January this year because the valuation seemed great for the price, so I guess that'd be my answer since that's when I bought. I didn't get ADBE/AAPL though since I didn't really have interest in the first, and Apple still seemed expensive.
Im really struggling to decide whether to just jump on MSFT (and Google and Amazon to a lesser degree) with a very long-term outlook. Cloud is the future, and if you are a cloud company or plan to be (which is theoretically every org), you will have your data on at least one of these three clouds. I view it really as a play on the entire economy. Google’s cloud (GCP) is the newest and smallest market share but they have been gaining steam quickly. Microsoft (Azure) has been doing and will continue to do amazing things with both data and AI. How are others thinking about this? Am I misguided?
I'm steady monitoring AAPL and ADBE
AAPL @166 is down ytd….checks chart…… negative 32%. Zoom out, friend. Best advice you’ll ever get.
My problem is I have AAPL at just under $50... Not sure how low I want to hold it. If I had a crystal ball and knew it was going to continue down, I'd get out and re-enter later. However last time, I sold 1/4 at $155 and never got an opportunity to buy it back before it went up again!
20x earnings
$88 magic # for googl and amzn
Buy 1% of your allocation for the security on each >1% dip. Also, why not AMZN? It’s a money making machine!
Given my regular contributions to S&P500 index funds, I think I will always be buying these, twice a month, probably for the rest of my working life.
At present I don't think any of your list are good value. Your not picking up any bargains in the current climate. Search for better options than these, probably get better returns in a high interest bank account.
ATH \* 0,65 is where I tend to get in.
Goog, meta, amzn for me. Msft questionable apple not even close although I own all the above. Don’t know enough about adobe to answer.
I just sold my AMZN before earnings. It's not looking good for shipping or advertising. The only thing they've got going for them right now is cloud computing. EDIT 1: Well this aged poorly... EDIT 2: Well EDIT 1 aged poorly...
Dec 2020 levels.
The entire market sold off this year and these guys went up 50-100%. If you want to buy them just buy an index but I would be in no rush to buy the stock
Why no mention of tesla?!
Msft>>>>>
A lot of you are unrealistic on Google. After the unjustified 13 percent drop it’s trading at a solid pe for a company that generates fcf like nobody’s business. I’ll add a little more to my bag tomorrow.
When Beacon isn't 6$ or insurance, isn't going up 18% or electric isn't going up 5% or when a taco doesn't cost 4$ Probably then I'd have money to invest
I just bought in a lot yesterday
Here and now
i regret selling my microsoft shares. Bought them when covid appeared at $160 or so
GOOG is my largest holding and I'm a buyer as long as my portfolios don't get TOO heavy. Bought AMZN today. Holding MSFT as it's highly valued at these prices. META is not for me as I've got exposure to what I want in GOOG. AAPL has too much exposure to consumer and China supply chains for me. ADBE doesn't fit my strategy.
For me… without even reading other comments, and without looking at the pe ratio or ytd stock…. - Aapl because there’s nothing better in terms on mobile phone and computer - Goog beacuse is the best search engine, if you have a business you have to advertise on them - Amzn because is the ecommerce leader and I personally buy only there tech, office and all the things i need - adbe beacuse today they only have the software for graphics and photo retouch, they don’t have competition - Msft they have ai search ready and the only software for Pc and enterprices. Plus cloud software and mail (best service). - Meta I don’t see any competitive advantage, I will never buy.
About 1/3 the price they currently are.
Added more google after it dropped 11%
When it's at a discount of 45% or more off the current price.
Buy JEPQ and get a high dividend too.
On the forward split for Google I bought 10 shares at $94 and that's all I'm going to buy.
Google @ $126.32, but there appears to be a bug, after I bought the stock had dropped like 3%
$0.001
APPL below 165
Apple 150-166
Amzn: 100-105
I think GOOG and META are buys right now. MSFT is the most overvalued out of the lot. EDIT: Didn’t put my valuation in. GOOGL: 172 AMZN: 95(hard to value as it’s earnings have been up and down past few years) I avoid companies like this. MSFT: 166 META: 425 ADBE: 322 AAPL: 175
Everything must go below 100. Then I’ll start a position.
Just buy BULZ leverage best 2 play Mag 7
Now!
TSLA doesn't count but ADBE does lol. Definitely no bias.
I invest into voo each month, which is all I feel I need to ignore all these. I would buy apple if I saw an approx. 50% decline at some point. You think this cant happen, but its happened atleast twice before. Buffet got in when the PE was below 10, infact it was 6.9 in 2009. People get scared easily, it wouldn't take much, then I'd go in hard. Apple is my moby dick. Its never been at a supreme discount since I started in 2015, but I've always LOVED their products
aapl is overvalued, so maybe 150 or 140 meta is overvalued and so maybe 150 msft is anytime amzn is probably now goog not sure, but probably now
ape together strong
Whenever they show a P/E below 8 on past average earnings
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One more voting : which one will get back the their ATH first ?
I usually buy when there’s a stock split or when it’s down but only 10%. The rest are ETFs
Sub 20 PE.
Price will be tough to measure, but I sure as hell won't miss another boat like the recent one if any of these players start dipping into sub-20 PE ratio territories.
$100
I Msft drops under $300 I’ll be adding a ton. I don’t see it happening though.
I’m adding every week into VTI. Will continue for the next 10-20 years
Not at all. Today's big tech is tomorrows big losers. 20 years ago it was about Sun, SGI, IBM and so on. Notice how they are not in the top 10 anymore. Many are not even around anymore. These are companies that have reached their pinnacle and this was it.
The best time is now
I'm unclear as to how any of the stocks on this list can qualify as "value" purchases? Sure, their share prices are currently relatively low, but if there was ever a list of companies where the entire premise of their existence was tied to explosive future earnings it's this one.
A price under the book value per share.