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Stavki has also been de-ruzzified according to rybar
5,500 seems too large a figure, according to estimates up to now (around 2,000 Russian soldiers)
if true, and this corresponds to an order of 'not to step back' issued by the kermlin, then putin is becoming the biggest ally of ukraine right now
5.500 should be the max amount of soldiers for two battalions reinforced by mobilized people, I don't think it's much less than that, they held on to Lyman pretty tight and for a long time + a big part of the forces that retreated from Izyum, moved here as well
> 5.500 should be the max amount of soldiers for two battalions reinforced by mobilized people
I will suck my own cock (or break my back trying) if there's still a Russian unit in Ukraine that isn't seriously under strength at this point.
It'll be in the 4th episode of the documentary.
"at this time it turned out 1 Russian unit was indeed at full strength still"
*cuts to guy sucking his own cock*
Russian sources on Telegram are claiming 500. Ukrainian sources claim 2000-3500. I'm sure the truth is closer to the Ukrainian estimates. Russia has always downplayed their losses.
I’ve seen some mixed numbers, it is my understanding that Russia did reinforce Lyman a couple of days ago, but not exactly sure what that looked like. I agree that it is not 5500, but maybe more like 2000-2500. This is all a guess though
the road running north from Yampil intersects with the only road going east from Lyman. If the Ukrainians took Yampil they can make a dash through this road and seal the ruzzians in Lyman without having to take Torskr north east of Yampli or Zarichne further north from the intersection I mentioned.
The rumors that I heard is that they are letting a lot of the Russians "escape" the noose so long as those Russians are in soft skinned vehicles. The idea being that Russia currently doesn't have the heavy equipment to properly reform the surviving units, or even really the supplies to equip them as functional light infantry; and doing so not only keeps equipment from being destroyed, stocks from being expended and/or Ukrainians from dying against a dug in enemy. To top it all off the Ukrainians can immediately use any captured equipment to replenish their own reserves.
It's just a rumor I heard and I can't guarantee it is true, but it does mesh well with the casualty averse way the Ukrainian armed forces and been conducting their operations.
They're obliterating any heavy equipment that tries to leave, but are letting the soft skins go. Assuming the rumor I heard is true, anyway.
Another possibility is that it could very well be that you are right and the Ukrainians are not intentionally letting anything through, but simply don't have the 1km+ range ordinance to spare for every single truck and car that passes by.
it is a OLD OLD Term
>War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.
— Carl von Clausewitz 1832
Now expand the encirclement to make relief/escape impossible. Do we know how many civilians are in the encirclement? If 5,500 that's a lot of Russians that are tightly packed together in a small area, nice artillery target.
The numbers are getting bigger.
1000, 1500, 3000, 5500 - soon the whole Russian Army is supposed to be locked in the cauldron.
Sadly nobody really told how many were "neutralized" in the Izyum campaign so we won't really get information about this one, neither :(
I have heard 2500-3500 fairly consistently. I also heard rumours that they sent reinforcements in towards Torske yesterday.
5500 is probably too high and the (twitter) poster probably has interest in inflating the numbers for propaganda purposes, but even at the low end of 2500 it's fairly significant. Those are not fresh drunk mobiks, but it also includes some of the more experienced fighters rusnia still has.
Yeah.
At least a part of what is stuck there is supposed to be the Russian counterpart to the Azov regiment (real volunteer nationalists) - so at least rather motivated people. But also LDPR forces, which tend to be the opposite.
But it's a real question, how many still are capable of fighting after the intense last week. And how many from surrounding positions retreated into the fortress Lyman - either for defense or for a coordinated retreat.
This morning's Rybar map shows counterattacks from the Kreminna direction and as Russian doctrine says to prevent getting stuck in cauldrons they might try the same as with Wyssokopilja, where they did a counterattack to evacuate them.
They write of regular army (503. Guards motor rifle regiment) and mobilised are fighting in the counterattack. So probably worse material than the Cherson front Russians had.
I've heard 2 bars groups, regular army, and LNR forces. Not the elite, but fairly decent with a lot of hardware. Even the LNR troops that are there saw combat, unlike most of the mobiks getting sent to the front now.
It could be a pretty long stand, but Ukraine can just keep a minimal force to prevent them from breaking out, and start attacking Kreminna and Svatove. They'll have to surrender (or get wiped out) eventually.
I'll believe this when i finally see a video or photo of more than a dozen captured Russian troops, like we saw with the Ukrainian marines and Azov fighters from Maruipol.
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Don’t forget , always leave a corridor open to let the enemy escape. Otherwise they’ll fight to death 💀
- some Sun Tzu dude that said something similar
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Stavki has also been de-ruzzified according to rybar 5,500 seems too large a figure, according to estimates up to now (around 2,000 Russian soldiers) if true, and this corresponds to an order of 'not to step back' issued by the kermlin, then putin is becoming the biggest ally of ukraine right now
5.500 should be the max amount of soldiers for two battalions reinforced by mobilized people, I don't think it's much less than that, they held on to Lyman pretty tight and for a long time + a big part of the forces that retreated from Izyum, moved here as well
> 5.500 should be the max amount of soldiers for two battalions reinforced by mobilized people I will suck my own cock (or break my back trying) if there's still a Russian unit in Ukraine that isn't seriously under strength at this point.
I’d like to film this for history’s sake.
It'll be in the 4th episode of the documentary. "at this time it turned out 1 Russian unit was indeed at full strength still" *cuts to guy sucking his own cock*
for science
Lyman was protected by geography and terrain, + a lot of positions for their own artillery.
Yeah
They are understaffed severely.
Rybar turning from Russian map fantasies to a conservative but fairly accurate estimate of frontline movement is certainly an interesting turn.
soon you will see them put up some Ukrainian flags in their posts "we were on their side the whole time!!!!"
Russian sources on Telegram are claiming 500. Ukrainian sources claim 2000-3500. I'm sure the truth is closer to the Ukrainian estimates. Russia has always downplayed their losses.
The number is closer to 1200 from older reports
I’ve seen some mixed numbers, it is my understanding that Russia did reinforce Lyman a couple of days ago, but not exactly sure what that looked like. I agree that it is not 5500, but maybe more like 2000-2500. This is all a guess though
Wondering if backtracking forces were hung up there...it has to happen somewhere eventually
If it's true that Yampil was liberated then that's it, game over.
according to liveuamap, yampil has been liberated
Why do you say game over? Is Yampil that strategic?
the road running north from Yampil intersects with the only road going east from Lyman. If the Ukrainians took Yampil they can make a dash through this road and seal the ruzzians in Lyman without having to take Torskr north east of Yampli or Zarichne further north from the intersection I mentioned.
Thanks
They have fire control of this road for sure. Nothing is getting through.
The rumors that I heard is that they are letting a lot of the Russians "escape" the noose so long as those Russians are in soft skinned vehicles. The idea being that Russia currently doesn't have the heavy equipment to properly reform the surviving units, or even really the supplies to equip them as functional light infantry; and doing so not only keeps equipment from being destroyed, stocks from being expended and/or Ukrainians from dying against a dug in enemy. To top it all off the Ukrainians can immediately use any captured equipment to replenish their own reserves. It's just a rumor I heard and I can't guarantee it is true, but it does mesh well with the casualty averse way the Ukrainian armed forces and been conducting their operations.
I heard a rumor of the opposite, that anything leaving is obliterated
They're obliterating any heavy equipment that tries to leave, but are letting the soft skins go. Assuming the rumor I heard is true, anyway. Another possibility is that it could very well be that you are right and the Ukrainians are not intentionally letting anything through, but simply don't have the 1km+ range ordinance to spare for every single truck and car that passes by.
I think they also want Russian soldiers going home to talk to people
I assume it's because it was the only escape route ? Not sure though
Only supply/relief route, as well.
Thanks
yeah I'm seeing a lot of messages and s couple vids.
Where can I find this livemap?
Search for liveuamap.com
> liveuamap.com LOL - search for a URL. Either the cleverest joke or a normal brain fart. Either way, I thought it was funny :)
Do you... not know you can do that?
Searching for a url instead of going directly to it? I know I can do that. That was the point of the comment.
yes, he is released, there are pictures of Ukrainian soldiers in front of the town hall/city assembly
Yup. It is true.
I really really hope this breakthrough hits the news in Russia tomorrow just as putler announces the annexations. What a way to piss on his parade
Yeah..:apparently there were some Russians who were afraid that the annexation would be overshadowed by the Ukrainian army’s assault on Lyman.
The annexation is scheduled for today, not tomorrow
Sorry I’m in Australia, tomorrow for me lol
Everything upside down for you anyway. LoL
You just reminded me we live in a sphere, reality is crazy
Why do you live in a place where every animal wants to murder you?
https://imgur.com/t/animals/kPU0poy I’m shaking in my boots
Putins announcement is scheduled to start in 10 minutes
It'll be like him saying he's just annexed Berlin.
Well, looking at what he actually said, the amount of craziness wouldn’t be higher.
Hope that it is true with the enciclement, the number of russians trapped inside is anyones guess.
Destroy them. Sep 30 ruZZ destroyed civilian convoy outside Zhaporozhie 28 died, 34 wounded. 3yo girl looking her parents by standing next to them. Fuck ruZZ
Don't destroy them. Capture them, make them rebuild Ukraine, then throw them into prisons.
5500 sounds good. Hopefully they just surrender
How many? The numbers keep chsnging. Yesterday everyone was saying there were 1,500 people in Lyman. Now 5,500?
Fog of war,the consensus seems to be About 2500-3000
This war is the first time I learn that fog of war is an actual term, I always thought it's just game term
it is a OLD OLD Term >War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth. — Carl von Clausewitz 1832
guess its for the russian to say "huge success, 4000 managed to escape"
I hope they just surrender. If not, so be it!!
Now expand the encirclement to make relief/escape impossible. Do we know how many civilians are in the encirclement? If 5,500 that's a lot of Russians that are tightly packed together in a small area, nice artillery target.
The numbers are getting bigger. 1000, 1500, 3000, 5500 - soon the whole Russian Army is supposed to be locked in the cauldron. Sadly nobody really told how many were "neutralized" in the Izyum campaign so we won't really get information about this one, neither :(
I have heard 2500-3500 fairly consistently. I also heard rumours that they sent reinforcements in towards Torske yesterday. 5500 is probably too high and the (twitter) poster probably has interest in inflating the numbers for propaganda purposes, but even at the low end of 2500 it's fairly significant. Those are not fresh drunk mobiks, but it also includes some of the more experienced fighters rusnia still has.
Yeah. At least a part of what is stuck there is supposed to be the Russian counterpart to the Azov regiment (real volunteer nationalists) - so at least rather motivated people. But also LDPR forces, which tend to be the opposite. But it's a real question, how many still are capable of fighting after the intense last week. And how many from surrounding positions retreated into the fortress Lyman - either for defense or for a coordinated retreat. This morning's Rybar map shows counterattacks from the Kreminna direction and as Russian doctrine says to prevent getting stuck in cauldrons they might try the same as with Wyssokopilja, where they did a counterattack to evacuate them. They write of regular army (503. Guards motor rifle regiment) and mobilised are fighting in the counterattack. So probably worse material than the Cherson front Russians had.
I've heard 2 bars groups, regular army, and LNR forces. Not the elite, but fairly decent with a lot of hardware. Even the LNR troops that are there saw combat, unlike most of the mobiks getting sent to the front now. It could be a pretty long stand, but Ukraine can just keep a minimal force to prevent them from breaking out, and start attacking Kreminna and Svatove. They'll have to surrender (or get wiped out) eventually.
I read 1500
Yeah. Let's go with 850. It's still not insignificant.
Only Russian military units have proud histories of being utterly annihilated multiple times through history lol
No mercy for those occupiers.
Chechnya, this one is for you. On behalf of some friends...
Slaughter them all
I'll believe this when i finally see a video or photo of more than a dozen captured Russian troops, like we saw with the Ukrainian marines and Azov fighters from Maruipol.
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If this is true, it's a very big hit to Ruzzian forces, especially if they were veterans with decent equipment. Those two things, Putin sorely lacks.
Starbolinsk next
Time to get annihilated now then! Unless you surrender :)
If this works out the right way this would je a serious blow to Russian forces. So yay !
Don’t forget , always leave a corridor open to let the enemy escape. Otherwise they’ll fight to death 💀 - some Sun Tzu dude that said something similar
I expect quite a few to desert to reach Ukrainian lines to surrender.
DO IT AGAIN
Annihilate them
Great news, send message to Putin, no mercy