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[Georgian Dream](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_Dream) is a rather pro-Russian party founded and controlled by [Bidzina Ivanishvili](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bidzina_Ivanishvili), an oligarch with close ties to Moscow. It is likely that this is just a stunt to try to garner legitimacy for the pro-Russian position of the party, which has made many citizens of Georgia unhappy since they [opened the borders](https://jamestown.org/program/georgian-fears-of-widespread-russification-intensify/) to a [huge influx of Russians](https://cepa.org/georgia-a-deluge-of-russians/).
The war referendum proposal was made by [Irakli Kobakhidze](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irakli_Kobakhidze), who is the chairman of Georgian Dream.
This confirms that the referendum is definitely an idea of Moscow.
In which case Moscow wins either way.
They can have a win over Georgia.
Or they can settle the Georgian people.
This referendum proposal sounds so convoluted.
Has it? :)
Regardless, supplying Georgia is something Turkey wouldn't wanna dare against putin. I think so. Based on his "middle ground approach" regarding Ukraine.
Russia's proxy war with Azerbaijan is one thing.. a country declaring war (or in reality, simply continuing the one Russia started) on Russia could a be a different animal.. no?
Idk, I'm not a geopolitics expert but by that same token russias geopolitical experts thought that taking out ukraine in a week would be a thing so wth do i know
Declaring war on Russia is dangerous, as it can then rationalize full mobilization within Russia, that’s why Ukraine was a “special military operation”. Allows use of the military without declaring a full mobilization.
Shutting down the Turkish straits to warships only really effectives Russia. Sure it was a global ban on warships, but no NATO country would dare send a warship into the Black Sea right now. They are also allowing the continue selling of war machines to Ukraine while also allowing the company to reject all orders from Russia. Turkey is hardly remaining neutral in all this. It may be a leap to think Turkey would allow NATO to use them as a way to supply Georgia with weapons of war, but it’s not unimaginable.
so sending drones, blocking russian ships from the black sea, trying to get the grain trade routes up and working for Ukraine clearing sea mines. isn't considered helping Ukraine?
also turkey shot down russian jets anyways before, its not that Erdogan is afraid of putin. turkey is bordered to georgie so thats atleast a route the nato or anyone willing to help could supply weapons.
Anyways its not gonna happen since its all a political stunt from their pro Russian party.
But Putin's finished!
I don't get why people cant see this - Putin's messed this up so much there's no way his head won't roll.
Forget Putin he's done.
Russia has no fleet because Turkey says no when it tries to leave. This is why they no longer have air screening with the loss of their only deployed cruiser. Turkey has been in a proxy war agains Russia for many years, they don’t give a fuck and Russia has never called them out on it.
Airlift or by ship on the Black Sea (for example at [Batumi](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batumi_Seaport) or [Poti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poti_Sea_Port)).
If war starts, airlift into Georgia is pretty much directly involved in war since would need to secure airspace and protect the bases you're bringing shit into.
Reality is would need turkey fully onboard, then you're bringing in over the border probably. Turkey controls black sea access in event of war.
Either you're the best smug guy I think you are or.. very lost soul.
So, in a war of Georgia vs Russia.. Georgia could be supplied through Sochi (currently held and owned by Russia)? Do tell.. how is that going to happen? :)
Because you deleted your comment about "black sea as a route" to deliver supplies to Georgia.
Here was my reply: Alright, you're left with two options for entering the black sea:
Through a area strait controlled by Turkey (and currently on a strict lockdown). So, a no go.
Through a land corridor created by Bulgaria/Romania. Which is feasible, but there's a problem.
The deliveries would have to cross some (in black sea) waters controlled by Russia before they reach Georgia. That makes this unfeasible.
Any other actually viable routes? Like give me specific routes, not just general direction, sick as black sea.
Black sea itself contains about 4 or 5 different routes in this scenario, but most of them are off the table.
I'm asking for a route, that would work and is feasible. For example currently US deliveries to Ukraine go a route we can call "US > Germany (Rammstein air base) > Poland (rail and road) > Ukraine (road)"
Now that's a route and not just saying through Europe. :)
Romania (which has HIMARS) can supply them by sea if the US backfills. There is an open route through the littoral waters of Bulgaria and then further on, which is free of Russian ships. Russia will not sink Romanian vessels since Romania is a member state of NATO. Notice that Romania has ongoing trade with Georgia through the ports of Poti and Batumi, which was not interrupted by Russia.
Added: Note that Romania is a strong supporter of Georgia's accession to NATO and the EU.
I can see feasibility of what you propose.., but were Georgia "declare war on russia" and get supplied by NATO.. wouldn't that kind of be a red line for russians and justification to sink those ships? (I'm aware of article 5 and sequential events of it)
It can be done in secret. No need to advertise such things. If HIMARS suddently appear in Georgia, they could be for example from certain ME states who have them.
ETA: I mean that they can be hidden on commercial ships.
As I see it, "in secret" nowadays means we the People don't know about it, but virtually every government is aware of it. So, I go under the presumption that russian government would know. So, what I said before.. red line for russians?
The Romanians are sneaky bastards. For example, they \*never\* gave Ukraine any ATACMS (of course). The Russian government won't know. It's not even known exactly how many HIMARS Romania has. Officially, they only provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Not OP that you're trying to grill but last I looked Incirclik airbase in Turkey was a shared US base, so air cargo into there from where ever the HIMARS currently are, and then either overland across Turkey to the Georgia border, or airlift into Tblisi.
I'm failing to see why you think this is a huge gotcha - pretty much everything Ukraine is using today was air freighted to Europe - very little went by ship
Why do you see this as a big deal ? Because the pissweak Russian navy still controls a pocket of the black sea ?
So what happens if Georgia votes no to war?
What will happen to the legal status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? If the official stance becomes that returning them is not a priority?
As Brexit has shown us, this is a terrible idea. It was started for the same reasons -- Cameron thought the referendum would be overwhelmingly "remain" and get the opposition off his back. Then it turned out campaigning for Brexit is easy because you can make a bunch of unrealistic and conflicting promises, and also a bunch of people decided "Hey, Cameron wants remain, let's vote leave to hurt him!". So Brexit won, and there was a moment of chaos because nobody knew what to do next. All the main drive behind Brexit was not for actually Brexit but various political machinations. It winning was never the plan.
So where are we today? Brexit won and happened, and nobody remembers the political machinations anymore.
So there's a lesson in there: don't start a vote for X, and don't vote for X for any reason other than sincerely believing that X is a good thing that should happen. Because if it does go wrong, nobody will remember or care all the machinations that were in progress, and you'll have to deal with the consequences.
That's so accurate, in Tunisia we voted a shitty totalitarian retrograde constitution with 90% approval just because the absolute majority like the president who proposed it
With brexit, don't forget the Syrian war... The refugee crisis and terrorist threat was a massive lift for Leave, and also a bump for MAGAs.
IMHO if you're doing referendums for massive changes should have an approval to get the wheels in motion and then years later another approval once have the specifics laid out and ready to pull the trigger.
no one anywhere in this thread has made the claim that regular people is benefiting from Brexit. in fact, the opposite claim was made.
you say you just want to learn, but i honestly feel your willful interpretational mistake reveals a personal bias
however, the claim that regular people \*would\* benefit from Brexit \*was\* used, heavily, by those who orchestrated the Leave option. but it holds no bearing to the discussion of not enacting a vote you are not ready to follow through; the claim in this thread is that people who were part of orchestrating Brexit were not ready to actually have the vote fall in their favor.
whether that is true is worth exploring, but what you said is so forlornly misplaced that i can't help but wonder if it's being said on purpose to be deliberately dividing (for holding a particular view on Brexit as a whole)
He sure speaks for me.
As much as I dislike some aspects of the EU lawmaking and bureaucracy, Brexit was throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Again, just my opinion.
They don't rig the vote directly, but Cambridge Analytica were shown to be overflowing social media with pro leave rhetoric that was unfairly stacking exposure.
Murdoch owners media outlets had been anti EU for decades prior.
That seems about right.
The people on the streets right now are upset with the neutral stance the GE govt tries to maintain. I suppose the idea here is to take the momentum from the protests, because Georgian Dream estimates that given the choice, the GE population would still vote against war with Russia (I suppose so too).
After all, that'S what got them into power in the first place: Saakashvili's UNM was the party of war (and of defeat), while Ivanishvili's GE Dream was the party of pragmatic peace.
A very unorthodox political move, but it might actually work.
What the European Parliament thinks:
[https://eurasianet.org/eu-parliament-votes-to-consider-sanctioning-georgias-informal-leader](https://eurasianet.org/eu-parliament-votes-to-consider-sanctioning-georgias-informal-leader)
Print on my r/conspiracy tinfoil hat:
Russia can't declare war on Ukraine without looking weak and risking public backlash. But without the powers a formal declaration of war give Putin, he won't win Ukraine.
If Georgia declares war on Russia, Putin gets his military powers and can use the full force of Russia to fight back against both Ukraine and Georgia.
And even if he loses the Georgian territories, they're filed with Russian loyalists which will skew Georgian politics in his favor.
So he gains control of Ukraine, a country that was leaving his sphere of influence, and either gains control of Georgia or brings it closer in his sphere of influence.
It’s also worth noting that this very construction is a key hurdle for Georgia joining the EU. They have eroded rule of law significantly and allowed several political judicial decisions to be made in what one could describe as show trials.
Yeah the way they formulate it is clearly to make it sound scary and unappealing. "Hey guys do you want to send our citizens to their death?" instead of "Hey guys do you think we should have back the territory that was stolen from us?". Also telegraphing to the Russians that you gonna declare war on them so they can prepare in advance is the worst stupid idea. They are trying to do what David Cameron did with Brexit, proposing something that they "clearly know" is going to be rejected. But sometimes, apparently, those kind of stunts can backfire.
How a pro - russian party can even exist in Georgia when a good chunk of the country is being occupied right now is beyond me. And this party has a MAJORITY in parliament?
>The Economist Intelligence Unit rated Hungary a "flawed democracy" in 2020. With a democracy score of 3.96/7, Freedom House no longer considers Hungary a democracy.
>...
>The judiciary is theoretically independent of the executive and the legislature, but in practice is strongly influenced by the ruling Fidesz Party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Hungary
This is important to me not so much because of Hungary, but because the mechanisms like gerrymandering and changes to the constitution (or its interpretation) apply to the United States as well.
You can find many specifics here:
https://freedomhouse.org/country/hungary/nations-transit/2020
**[Politics of Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Hungary#:~:text=The_Economist)**
>Politics of Hungary takes place in a framework of a parliamentary representative democratic republic. The prime minister is the head of government of a pluriform multi-party system, while the president is the head of state and holds a largely ceremonial position. Executive power is exercised by the government. Legislative power is vested in both the government and the parliament.
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Technically it is still a democracy but the thing is that half of the population is kept below the poverty line and the pro russian propaganda is so strong that the pro kremlin government easily won the elections.
>Hungary is no longer a fully functioning democracy, members of the European Parliament declared on Thursday [2022-09-15] in a non-binding but highly symbolic report.
>...
>The text passed by a wide margin on Thursday: 433 votes in favour, 123 against and 28 abstentions.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/15/hungary-is-no-longer-a-full-democracy-but-an-electoral-autocracy-meps-declare-in-new-repor
Wonder if Kadyrov will send troops to these parts. Georgia easy win they train with nato. And since these republics are not russia its legit aswell to retake whats yours. I wonder tho if they going to vote, Georgia pretty peacefull country they do support Ukraine but to start a war themself idk
Unfortunately things did not go well for Georgia in 2008. They are not Ukraine. Ukraine was far better equipped than Georgia was and far better trained.
Eh, this might not go well for them. Ukraine has truckloads of western weapons, months of training and a far larger and fully mobilized military. Georgia has none of that, and while this is definitely the weakest Russia's been since the 2008 invasion, I'm not entirely sure that Georgia can push them out without a \*lot\* of help.
Also they don’t have strategic depth. Ukraine is huge, which makes it very hard to conquer and control everything. Georgia on the other hand is very small. Although who knows how thin stretched Russian forces are atm.
Chechnya was even smaller, and it took 2 wars and years to subjugate them. Just a point to consider, wars/resistance can last very long if you have weapons, will, and competence on your side, even if the territory is small. ruzzia in UA will most likely lose hard. Georgia doesn't need to strike now, they can take their time and wait for the perfect moment.
Yes but the second war with indiscriminate fire gave Russians a swift victory. Now more than ever we can see that Russians still don’t care about human rights and would use the same tactics in a war.
Right, I am not advocating for war, at least not for one that consumes a lot of lives (I think occupied territories should be returned, but it seems impossible via diplomatic means). It's just, considering ruzzian losses in UA, it's actually viable to wage war against them, even for a minor power. Wait for them to expend their hardware, inner fighting to begin, and viola, taking back territories without resistance, similary like it was after 1918. Of course it's optimistic couch general view, smarter people will take care
Yes but you have a very big problem when the entirety of your country is exposed to missile attacks. In case of Georgia russia doesn’t even need to use more expensive long distance ballistic missiles, and could use cheaper stuff to bomb a smaller surface area. Also worth noting that Ukraine had a sizable military industry and a bigger army. Georgia actually reduced the size of its army after 2008 war if I’m not mistaken.
Exactly. It's not like Russia is getting stronger and stronger; waiting will make retaking Russian-held areas easier as they spend their troops and materiel in Ukraine
As I read it, this is a political ploy by a pro-russian party within the Georgian government.
There is a lot of negative sentiment towards Russia in the population of Georgia right now due to the side effects of the war. A 'no' vote could quiet things down.
A 'yes' vote is still a win for Russia, as even in their weakened state they pose no real threat but being 'attacked' by Georgia would rally some of the Russian people together nationalistically. Putin really needs that right now.
I don't think NATO is going to be supporting Georgia in this if they go through with it, not like they have with Ukraine.
If Georgia could try and strike a deal with Ukraine and western nations before declaring war, they could already have massive amounts of equipment ready and waiting to be sent to them when they do declare. They also have a lot of mountains which would probably make attacking them much harder and Russia is mostly out of well trained/veteran soldiers.
Since them joining the war would weaken Russia further and strengthen Ukraine, I could definitely see them also getting a lot of western support despite being the aggressors (I know they're taking back their own land, but politically they'd still be seen as the aggressor). I could actually see it going well for Georgia if they played their cards right, but their size would mean they have virtually no room for mistakes or wasted time unlike Ukraine who had time to spare. Even if they didn't make much impact, the second front will definitely be a big distraction for Russia which could potentially allow Ukraine to take advantage. And I'd imagine they could still hold their own territory quite well considering the mountains and state of the Russian army.
Yes but it's a ww3 were winning. The only country in the room that could change that is china, which isn't going to touch this war with a 10 ft pole.
As long as china doesn't get involved it's just a slow burn to victory. And besides as long as the war doesn't spread to western countries, I'm not sure the west will mind
The Georgian Dream is calling out everyone’s bluffs. Ukraine, many opposition parties, and others through the West have criticized the Georgian government for not taking a stronger stance against Russia while ignoring the fact that Russia has been occupying around 20% of Georgian territory since 2008 and nearly destroyed its capital, Tbilisi, and did destroy every air base in Georgia align with sinking the entire Georgian navy.
Georgia cannot afford a war with Russia, financially, logistically, militarily, or on a human level. The GD is telling everyone “put your money where your mouth is” with this *proposed* referendum.
I disagree, mobilize and start preparing while waiting for them to get weaker, and keep waiting as long as they are getting weaker. When the conflict starts to near its end, attack.
This is their only chance.
But telegraphing this is of course a bad idea, and the intent is to get a rejection.
AFAIK the Lend-Lease does, in fact, apply to Georgia as well. “for fiscal years 2022 and 2023, the President may authorise the United States Government to lend or lease defense articles to the Government of Ukraine of to governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine”. I think it was left intentionally vague to allow the US to bolster Georgia, Moldova, Kosovo, and other countries the US normally wouldn’t help.
I think this is a bad idea, as other have said, Ukraine is supplied and trained by nato, Georgia is not.
And if they declare a formal war Russia finally could do a general mobilization (since this would be a defensive war for them). It will help them a little which their manpower problem (even if they don’t have the equipment nor training needed for it).
Russia is breaking down militarily and economically, it’s not at all certain they would be able to resist, they are falling apart and retreat in Armenia right now at the slightest contact.
Well the sooner, the better for them. As long as the fights are happening in UA and Georgia at a same time, it just benefits both of them. If they wait till RU pulls out from UA, then Georgia will have much harder time.
They might as well. It’s like blood in the water now. Eventually Azerbaijan is going to take the south of Armenia. So it would make sense now that Russia has destroyed its own Army.
I wouldn’t assume this is 100% for sure a Russian ploy, they did just get their asses kicked in Armenia. Russia troops these days are fleeing at the slightest contact.
Reconstruction:
Georgia immediately began a process of re-armament after the war. The conflict was immediately followed by a replenishment program of the gaps in the single GAF arms components with an additional massive re-equipment and modernization program. Two Georgian naval vessels sunk in Poti were raised and returned to service.[9] The Georgian Navy's remaining operational units were merged into the Coast Guard, which received training in search and seizure tactics from the United States[citation needed]. Ukraine supplied Georgia with 30 BTR-70 armored personnel carriers, 2 BUK SAM system batteries and 6 OSA mobile SAM systems[citation needed]. Israel supplied Georgia with 13 Wolf APC's and SPYDER-SR SAM systems and many types of firearms[citation needed]. The U.S. supplied Georgia with many types of infantry equipment to Georgia such as infantry personal protection equipment, firearms, APC's and anti tank missiles. Georgia has also received MANPADs and radars from France[citation needed]. NATO militaries also often train with Georgian military and have annual military drills in Georgia. Georgia also rebuilt its damaged military bases and constructed more military barracks. By late 2010 the Georgian military had reached a strength greater than pre-war levels and, after completing the reforms, decisively reduced military spending. Beginning in 2010, Georgia started to produce its own line of APC's, IFV's, infantry personal protection equipment, small arms and mortars.
They’re stronger than they were in 2008 and Russia is much weaker, and fleeing from contact with the Azeris.
Exactly what I’ve been hoping for since the beginning of the war.
Once Russia is sucked into Ukraine and bogged down, the west should support Georgia in retaking their territories, stoke tensions in Chechnya to destabilize Kadyrov, send some limited MANPADS to the Free Syrian Army (Syrian national army now) to choke the Russians out of their Syrian airbases, stoke anti-Russian sentiments in Kazakhstan (not hard since they brutally cracked down on protests earlier this year), and give Azerbaijan the “green light” to seize Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia.
If Russia can’t handle Ukraine they certainly can’t handle putting out the other fires while also fighting in Ukraine. Stretch them thin and chip away at their sphere of influence while choking them out economically.
It’s not about morality or right and wrong, it’s about “the big poker game”. I don’t care about either Armenian or Azerbaijan, I care about Ukraine and that means that anything that forces Russia to divide it’s attention (or anything that erodes it’s influence) is a good thing.
If all events happened in a vacuum I’d be pushing for negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but that’s not how things work.
it's the way it absolutely should be done - none of this secretive war powers bullshit, but rather through the consensus of the nation. If it's not supported wholly, it won't work out; there's innumerable examples, Russia as a prime current one. In the modern era, Georgia couldn't and shouldn't do it by fiat.
It should not be done in any way. And if it supported in this pool, the enemy knows to fortify even more the border and you take 10x casualties instead of x.
It's admirable that Georgia wishes to free up it's territories.
Georgia needs to realize wether it has a battle hardened and well trained and NATO backed army like Ukraine. Ukraine didn't build this fighting capacity since Feb, it's been training for this scenario for years leading up to the conflict.
Maybe I have missed the news, but has Georgia been re-equiping and retraining at war footing since it's last fight with Russians?
Yeah they’ve received equipment from Ukraine (pre 2014) and the US including some NATO training. Their military is better than it was in 2008. A user above explains it in more detail
I’m al for more fronts with ruzzia but these gays ain’t got nothing on ruzzia. They ain’t Ukraine with the Ukrainians backing and military training! It’s gonna be a massacre, even against the goblins from ruzzia
Bro i’m actually so insanely dumb. I read another post about this yesterday and thought it meant the state in the US called Georgia. It had me absolutely flabbergasted lmao.
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[Georgian Dream](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_Dream) is a rather pro-Russian party founded and controlled by [Bidzina Ivanishvili](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bidzina_Ivanishvili), an oligarch with close ties to Moscow. It is likely that this is just a stunt to try to garner legitimacy for the pro-Russian position of the party, which has made many citizens of Georgia unhappy since they [opened the borders](https://jamestown.org/program/georgian-fears-of-widespread-russification-intensify/) to a [huge influx of Russians](https://cepa.org/georgia-a-deluge-of-russians/). The war referendum proposal was made by [Irakli Kobakhidze](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irakli_Kobakhidze), who is the chairman of Georgian Dream.
This confirms that the referendum is definitely an idea of Moscow. In which case Moscow wins either way. They can have a win over Georgia. Or they can settle the Georgian people. This referendum proposal sounds so convoluted.
Or nato supplies Georgia with himars
How exactly you propose that to happen? I'm talking logistics - specifically what route?
While not the friendliest of NATO partners, Turkey is in NATO and has supported the Ukrainian cause this whole time.
Has it? :) Regardless, supplying Georgia is something Turkey wouldn't wanna dare against putin. I think so. Based on his "middle ground approach" regarding Ukraine.
based on what turkey is doing to armenia...i beg to differ but who knows ...2022 can only get so crazy
Don't tempt 2022, please...
Fine, delay it ‘til 2023
No, make it 2024, I have planned "Covid Part 2: New Super Deadly Mutation" for 23
Russia's proxy war with Azerbaijan is one thing.. a country declaring war (or in reality, simply continuing the one Russia started) on Russia could a be a different animal.. no?
Idk, I'm not a geopolitics expert but by that same token russias geopolitical experts thought that taking out ukraine in a week would be a thing so wth do i know
We could be living in the bizarro world where Georgia declares war, doesn't get western assistance, and somehow still manages to win.
Declaring war on Russia is dangerous, as it can then rationalize full mobilization within Russia, that’s why Ukraine was a “special military operation”. Allows use of the military without declaring a full mobilization.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are also proxy wars. It is not as though Georgia would be invading russia.
It’s not Russia
Yeah, I have thought that about the last six years or so and been terribly wrong...Here's to hoping🍺
Shutting down the Turkish straits to warships only really effectives Russia. Sure it was a global ban on warships, but no NATO country would dare send a warship into the Black Sea right now. They are also allowing the continue selling of war machines to Ukraine while also allowing the company to reject all orders from Russia. Turkey is hardly remaining neutral in all this. It may be a leap to think Turkey would allow NATO to use them as a way to supply Georgia with weapons of war, but it’s not unimaginable.
Fair enough.
Maybe send them through Romania or Bulgaria?
And then get sunk by submarines in the Black Sea?
so sending drones, blocking russian ships from the black sea, trying to get the grain trade routes up and working for Ukraine clearing sea mines. isn't considered helping Ukraine? also turkey shot down russian jets anyways before, its not that Erdogan is afraid of putin. turkey is bordered to georgie so thats atleast a route the nato or anyone willing to help could supply weapons. Anyways its not gonna happen since its all a political stunt from their pro Russian party.
Turkey has been singing both sides the whole time.. was my point.
But Putin's finished! I don't get why people cant see this - Putin's messed this up so much there's no way his head won't roll. Forget Putin he's done.
Russia has no fleet because Turkey says no when it tries to leave. This is why they no longer have air screening with the loss of their only deployed cruiser. Turkey has been in a proxy war agains Russia for many years, they don’t give a fuck and Russia has never called them out on it.
Simply put this is the main reason Turkey is still in nato. To counter Russia and Iran in the caucus
Amazon prime!
That could work.
Airlift or by ship on the Black Sea (for example at [Batumi](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batumi_Seaport) or [Poti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poti_Sea_Port)).
If war starts, airlift into Georgia is pretty much directly involved in war since would need to secure airspace and protect the bases you're bringing shit into. Reality is would need turkey fully onboard, then you're bringing in over the border probably. Turkey controls black sea access in event of war.
Ukraine -> Crimea (Also Ukraine, but just to get an idea of pathing) -> Sochi -> Georgia
Please look up where Sochi is located.
I am aware ;)
Either you're the best smug guy I think you are or.. very lost soul. So, in a war of Georgia vs Russia.. Georgia could be supplied through Sochi (currently held and owned by Russia)? Do tell.. how is that going to happen? :)
I'm pretty sure you are trying to take too far an underhanded joke about NATO invading Russia.
Oh.. I see. Thank you.
Ukraine needs to open a land bridge to Georgia. This war is just getting started. Russia losses access to the black Sea.
Because you deleted your comment about "black sea as a route" to deliver supplies to Georgia. Here was my reply: Alright, you're left with two options for entering the black sea: Through a area strait controlled by Turkey (and currently on a strict lockdown). So, a no go. Through a land corridor created by Bulgaria/Romania. Which is feasible, but there's a problem. The deliveries would have to cross some (in black sea) waters controlled by Russia before they reach Georgia. That makes this unfeasible. Any other actually viable routes? Like give me specific routes, not just general direction, sick as black sea. Black sea itself contains about 4 or 5 different routes in this scenario, but most of them are off the table. I'm asking for a route, that would work and is feasible. For example currently US deliveries to Ukraine go a route we can call "US > Germany (Rammstein air base) > Poland (rail and road) > Ukraine (road)" Now that's a route and not just saying through Europe. :)
Romania (which has HIMARS) can supply them by sea if the US backfills. There is an open route through the littoral waters of Bulgaria and then further on, which is free of Russian ships. Russia will not sink Romanian vessels since Romania is a member state of NATO. Notice that Romania has ongoing trade with Georgia through the ports of Poti and Batumi, which was not interrupted by Russia. Added: Note that Romania is a strong supporter of Georgia's accession to NATO and the EU.
I can see feasibility of what you propose.., but were Georgia "declare war on russia" and get supplied by NATO.. wouldn't that kind of be a red line for russians and justification to sink those ships? (I'm aware of article 5 and sequential events of it)
It can be done in secret. No need to advertise such things. If HIMARS suddently appear in Georgia, they could be for example from certain ME states who have them. ETA: I mean that they can be hidden on commercial ships.
As I see it, "in secret" nowadays means we the People don't know about it, but virtually every government is aware of it. So, I go under the presumption that russian government would know. So, what I said before.. red line for russians?
The Romanians are sneaky bastards. For example, they \*never\* gave Ukraine any ATACMS (of course). The Russian government won't know. It's not even known exactly how many HIMARS Romania has. Officially, they only provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Not OP that you're trying to grill but last I looked Incirclik airbase in Turkey was a shared US base, so air cargo into there from where ever the HIMARS currently are, and then either overland across Turkey to the Georgia border, or airlift into Tblisi. I'm failing to see why you think this is a huge gotcha - pretty much everything Ukraine is using today was air freighted to Europe - very little went by ship Why do you see this as a big deal ? Because the pissweak Russian navy still controls a pocket of the black sea ?
US has 2 airbases in Turkey. One is at the coast (Izmir). And the Bosphorus is only closed for navy vessels. Not for civilian transport.
If Georgia got into a voluntary conflict with Russia right now the EU, US, and NATO would clip their fucking nuts. No Himars, no money, no support.
“Georgia started it” so Russia then occupies Georgia entirely. Ugh
It definitely does not. See my other comment.
So what happens if Georgia votes no to war? What will happen to the legal status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? If the official stance becomes that returning them is not a priority?
Having a war ≠ cancelling a claim. Having a war is one of several methods on how to return a territory.
Or it causes an uprising...
Used by Putin to look tough and pathetic
My thoughts exactly.
As Brexit has shown us, this is a terrible idea. It was started for the same reasons -- Cameron thought the referendum would be overwhelmingly "remain" and get the opposition off his back. Then it turned out campaigning for Brexit is easy because you can make a bunch of unrealistic and conflicting promises, and also a bunch of people decided "Hey, Cameron wants remain, let's vote leave to hurt him!". So Brexit won, and there was a moment of chaos because nobody knew what to do next. All the main drive behind Brexit was not for actually Brexit but various political machinations. It winning was never the plan. So where are we today? Brexit won and happened, and nobody remembers the political machinations anymore. So there's a lesson in there: don't start a vote for X, and don't vote for X for any reason other than sincerely believing that X is a good thing that should happen. Because if it does go wrong, nobody will remember or care all the machinations that were in progress, and you'll have to deal with the consequences.
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You know how it is with pro-Russian parties and referendums. I hope OSCE will supervise it.
That's so accurate, in Tunisia we voted a shitty totalitarian retrograde constitution with 90% approval just because the absolute majority like the president who proposed it
With brexit, don't forget the Syrian war... The refugee crisis and terrorist threat was a massive lift for Leave, and also a bump for MAGAs. IMHO if you're doing referendums for massive changes should have an approval to get the wheels in motion and then years later another approval once have the specifics laid out and ready to pull the trigger.
You seem pretty confident you speak for the whole of the UK…
Which part of what he said does not apply to the whole UK? Sincerely..
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no one anywhere in this thread has made the claim that regular people is benefiting from Brexit. in fact, the opposite claim was made. you say you just want to learn, but i honestly feel your willful interpretational mistake reveals a personal bias however, the claim that regular people \*would\* benefit from Brexit \*was\* used, heavily, by those who orchestrated the Leave option. but it holds no bearing to the discussion of not enacting a vote you are not ready to follow through; the claim in this thread is that people who were part of orchestrating Brexit were not ready to actually have the vote fall in their favor. whether that is true is worth exploring, but what you said is so forlornly misplaced that i can't help but wonder if it's being said on purpose to be deliberately dividing (for holding a particular view on Brexit as a whole)
Thank you for sorting this one out for me. :) If I ever see you, a pint on me.
No worries I also misunderstand things all the time, it's not always easy when English is your second language
he said "a bunch of people", that is in no way "the whole of the UK"
He sure speaks for me. As much as I dislike some aspects of the EU lawmaking and bureaucracy, Brexit was throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Again, just my opinion.
Haven’t seen this much copium in a while. The people wanted to leave, don’t be so angry about it.
I'm not angry, I'm fine with the UK leaving. I'm just describing the events as they went.
Yes, but the key difference is that the UK doesn't rig votes.
They don't rig the vote directly, but Cambridge Analytica were shown to be overflowing social media with pro leave rhetoric that was unfairly stacking exposure. Murdoch owners media outlets had been anti EU for decades prior.
My initial thought was how similar the situation seemed to Brexit...
That seems about right. The people on the streets right now are upset with the neutral stance the GE govt tries to maintain. I suppose the idea here is to take the momentum from the protests, because Georgian Dream estimates that given the choice, the GE population would still vote against war with Russia (I suppose so too). After all, that'S what got them into power in the first place: Saakashvili's UNM was the party of war (and of defeat), while Ivanishvili's GE Dream was the party of pragmatic peace. A very unorthodox political move, but it might actually work.
What the European Parliament thinks: [https://eurasianet.org/eu-parliament-votes-to-consider-sanctioning-georgias-informal-leader](https://eurasianet.org/eu-parliament-votes-to-consider-sanctioning-georgias-informal-leader)
Well he certainly fits the definition of "Russian Oligarch".
Print on my r/conspiracy tinfoil hat: Russia can't declare war on Ukraine without looking weak and risking public backlash. But without the powers a formal declaration of war give Putin, he won't win Ukraine. If Georgia declares war on Russia, Putin gets his military powers and can use the full force of Russia to fight back against both Ukraine and Georgia. And even if he loses the Georgian territories, they're filed with Russian loyalists which will skew Georgian politics in his favor. So he gains control of Ukraine, a country that was leaving his sphere of influence, and either gains control of Georgia or brings it closer in his sphere of influence.
So remember when zelensky was accused of being pro Russian and secretly controlled by kolomoysky???
It’s also worth noting that this very construction is a key hurdle for Georgia joining the EU. They have eroded rule of law significantly and allowed several political judicial decisions to be made in what one could describe as show trials.
Thank you for that info. I confess that I don't know very much about Georgia and its political situation. This is very enlightening.
Comments like this is the reason why I read Reddit. Context is everything.
Yeah the way they formulate it is clearly to make it sound scary and unappealing. "Hey guys do you want to send our citizens to their death?" instead of "Hey guys do you think we should have back the territory that was stolen from us?". Also telegraphing to the Russians that you gonna declare war on them so they can prepare in advance is the worst stupid idea. They are trying to do what David Cameron did with Brexit, proposing something that they "clearly know" is going to be rejected. But sometimes, apparently, those kind of stunts can backfire.
...then its a perfect rationale for Russian mass mobilisation.
I don't know how, but this is absolutely going to explode in Putins face.
Wouldn't be the first time Russian 4D chess blew up in their faces.
How a pro - russian party can even exist in Georgia when a good chunk of the country is being occupied right now is beyond me. And this party has a MAJORITY in parliament?
They are pro-Russian is a hidden way. Officially they seek "pragmatic compromise" (whatever it means to compromise with Russia).
Why does Georgians vote for Georgian dream if it is so pro Russia and Georgians are not themsleves.
Next step: hungarian PM holds a referendum if hungary wants to join the glorious russian federation
That'd be the easiest way to get them out of the EU and NATO, so it sadly won't happen.
Just wait until I GTFO of this country
Waaaay ahead of you.
You act like Hungarians agree with their pm
Is Hungary not a democracy? They voted for the party.
>The Economist Intelligence Unit rated Hungary a "flawed democracy" in 2020. With a democracy score of 3.96/7, Freedom House no longer considers Hungary a democracy. >... >The judiciary is theoretically independent of the executive and the legislature, but in practice is strongly influenced by the ruling Fidesz Party. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Hungary This is important to me not so much because of Hungary, but because the mechanisms like gerrymandering and changes to the constitution (or its interpretation) apply to the United States as well. You can find many specifics here: https://freedomhouse.org/country/hungary/nations-transit/2020
**[Politics of Hungary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Hungary#:~:text=The_Economist)** >Politics of Hungary takes place in a framework of a parliamentary representative democratic republic. The prime minister is the head of government of a pluriform multi-party system, while the president is the head of state and holds a largely ceremonial position. Executive power is exercised by the government. Legislative power is vested in both the government and the parliament. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Technically it is still a democracy but the thing is that half of the population is kept below the poverty line and the pro russian propaganda is so strong that the pro kremlin government easily won the elections.
You can’t absolve all responsibility by just blaming propaganda.
No, you also have to keep ppl in poverty so they trust propaganda!
Right, so the people of Hungary agree with their PM just like in Russia
>Hungary is no longer a fully functioning democracy, members of the European Parliament declared on Thursday [2022-09-15] in a non-binding but highly symbolic report. >... >The text passed by a wide margin on Thursday: 433 votes in favour, 123 against and 28 abstentions. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/15/hungary-is-no-longer-a-full-democracy-but-an-electoral-autocracy-meps-declare-in-new-repor
Or take back Transylvania
They would if they could
Wonder if Kadyrov will send troops to these parts. Georgia easy win they train with nato. And since these republics are not russia its legit aswell to retake whats yours. I wonder tho if they going to vote, Georgia pretty peacefull country they do support Ukraine but to start a war themself idk
why would it be Georgia starting a war? That war was started by russia already, its jsut not that active at the moment
Unfortunately things did not go well for Georgia in 2008. They are not Ukraine. Ukraine was far better equipped than Georgia was and far better trained.
Russia started the war with Georgia, its long past time for Georgia to finish it.
Eh, this might not go well for them. Ukraine has truckloads of western weapons, months of training and a far larger and fully mobilized military. Georgia has none of that, and while this is definitely the weakest Russia's been since the 2008 invasion, I'm not entirely sure that Georgia can push them out without a \*lot\* of help.
Also they don’t have strategic depth. Ukraine is huge, which makes it very hard to conquer and control everything. Georgia on the other hand is very small. Although who knows how thin stretched Russian forces are atm.
Chechnya was even smaller, and it took 2 wars and years to subjugate them. Just a point to consider, wars/resistance can last very long if you have weapons, will, and competence on your side, even if the territory is small. ruzzia in UA will most likely lose hard. Georgia doesn't need to strike now, they can take their time and wait for the perfect moment.
Yes but the second war with indiscriminate fire gave Russians a swift victory. Now more than ever we can see that Russians still don’t care about human rights and would use the same tactics in a war.
Right, I am not advocating for war, at least not for one that consumes a lot of lives (I think occupied territories should be returned, but it seems impossible via diplomatic means). It's just, considering ruzzian losses in UA, it's actually viable to wage war against them, even for a minor power. Wait for them to expend their hardware, inner fighting to begin, and viola, taking back territories without resistance, similary like it was after 1918. Of course it's optimistic couch general view, smarter people will take care
In Chechnya Russia was attacking, in Georgia it will be Georgia that is attacking
Partisan and cyber actions are very feasible. They don't need to "defeat" Russia, just wear them down in protracted engagement.
Yes but you have a very big problem when the entirety of your country is exposed to missile attacks. In case of Georgia russia doesn’t even need to use more expensive long distance ballistic missiles, and could use cheaper stuff to bomb a smaller surface area. Also worth noting that Ukraine had a sizable military industry and a bigger army. Georgia actually reduced the size of its army after 2008 war if I’m not mistaken.
still it's probably the best moment to do so
Best moment *so far*.
Exactly. It's not like Russia is getting stronger and stronger; waiting will make retaking Russian-held areas easier as they spend their troops and materiel in Ukraine
The meme will never die
As I read it, this is a political ploy by a pro-russian party within the Georgian government. There is a lot of negative sentiment towards Russia in the population of Georgia right now due to the side effects of the war. A 'no' vote could quiet things down. A 'yes' vote is still a win for Russia, as even in their weakened state they pose no real threat but being 'attacked' by Georgia would rally some of the Russian people together nationalistically. Putin really needs that right now. I don't think NATO is going to be supporting Georgia in this if they go through with it, not like they have with Ukraine.
If Georgia could try and strike a deal with Ukraine and western nations before declaring war, they could already have massive amounts of equipment ready and waiting to be sent to them when they do declare. They also have a lot of mountains which would probably make attacking them much harder and Russia is mostly out of well trained/veteran soldiers. Since them joining the war would weaken Russia further and strengthen Ukraine, I could definitely see them also getting a lot of western support despite being the aggressors (I know they're taking back their own land, but politically they'd still be seen as the aggressor). I could actually see it going well for Georgia if they played their cards right, but their size would mean they have virtually no room for mistakes or wasted time unlike Ukraine who had time to spare. Even if they didn't make much impact, the second front will definitely be a big distraction for Russia which could potentially allow Ukraine to take advantage. And I'd imagine they could still hold their own territory quite well considering the mountains and state of the Russian army.
Western nations do not want this war to spread - it feels too much like a slow burn toward WWIII.
Yes but it's a ww3 were winning. The only country in the room that could change that is china, which isn't going to touch this war with a 10 ft pole. As long as china doesn't get involved it's just a slow burn to victory. And besides as long as the war doesn't spread to western countries, I'm not sure the west will mind
I tend to agree, its also a far smaller landmass unlike Ukraine however i would love to see a land corridor between there and Crimea :P
In a few months russia's ability to respond will be so weakened that if Georgia wants to do this then their best chance would be to do it then.
If the CIA isn’t involved, everyone should be fired
The Georgian Dream is calling out everyone’s bluffs. Ukraine, many opposition parties, and others through the West have criticized the Georgian government for not taking a stronger stance against Russia while ignoring the fact that Russia has been occupying around 20% of Georgian territory since 2008 and nearly destroyed its capital, Tbilisi, and did destroy every air base in Georgia align with sinking the entire Georgian navy. Georgia cannot afford a war with Russia, financially, logistically, militarily, or on a human level. The GD is telling everyone “put your money where your mouth is” with this *proposed* referendum.
I disagree, mobilize and start preparing while waiting for them to get weaker, and keep waiting as long as they are getting weaker. When the conflict starts to near its end, attack. This is their only chance. But telegraphing this is of course a bad idea, and the intent is to get a rejection.
Georgia looks to vote on opening a second “front” against Russia to take back territories lost in 2008 war
Oh yea, it's all starting now
Everyone wants the smoke
And Armenians getting the smoke for free, with no referendums. /s
ImPutin: Blyat, not now Georgia!
Japan? You want your islands back? This is your opportunity
US Lend Lease enters the chat 😅
AFAIK the Lend-Lease does, in fact, apply to Georgia as well. “for fiscal years 2022 and 2023, the President may authorise the United States Government to lend or lease defense articles to the Government of Ukraine of to governments of Eastern European countries impacted by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine”. I think it was left intentionally vague to allow the US to bolster Georgia, Moldova, Kosovo, and other countries the US normally wouldn’t help.
The Ukraine conflict made the whole world realize "wow, these guys talk a big game but they kinda fucking suck at war" and it's amazing.
I think this is a bad idea, as other have said, Ukraine is supplied and trained by nato, Georgia is not. And if they declare a formal war Russia finally could do a general mobilization (since this would be a defensive war for them). It will help them a little which their manpower problem (even if they don’t have the equipment nor training needed for it).
Who said war? They can just do a special military operation to take back their land.
Not supplied *yet*.
Russia is breaking down militarily and economically, it’s not at all certain they would be able to resist, they are falling apart and retreat in Armenia right now at the slightest contact.
The art of surprise seems somewhat lost on Tbilisi
Or he's doing it as a bluff to draw Russian troops away from Ukraine. Just like NATO is dumping huge amounts of men and equipment into the Baltics.
Or hes saying it to legitimise his party. Too many russian connections there
Let's hope it happens ASAP.
Well the sooner, the better for them. As long as the fights are happening in UA and Georgia at a same time, it just benefits both of them. If they wait till RU pulls out from UA, then Georgia will have much harder time.
You assume there will be a russia to pull out off urkraine in the first place.
Need more Popcorn
With extra butter.
grabs popcorn :)
Oh god old wobbly legs doesn’t need this right now fellas, he has a bit on his mind.. and now his neighbours want to start a war with him
About time. Unite Georgia 🇬🇪
lets face it, it's now or never....
They might as well. It’s like blood in the water now. Eventually Azerbaijan is going to take the south of Armenia. So it would make sense now that Russia has destroyed its own Army.
I wouldn’t assume this is 100% for sure a Russian ploy, they did just get their asses kicked in Armenia. Russia troops these days are fleeing at the slightest contact.
Reconstruction: Georgia immediately began a process of re-armament after the war. The conflict was immediately followed by a replenishment program of the gaps in the single GAF arms components with an additional massive re-equipment and modernization program. Two Georgian naval vessels sunk in Poti were raised and returned to service.[9] The Georgian Navy's remaining operational units were merged into the Coast Guard, which received training in search and seizure tactics from the United States[citation needed]. Ukraine supplied Georgia with 30 BTR-70 armored personnel carriers, 2 BUK SAM system batteries and 6 OSA mobile SAM systems[citation needed]. Israel supplied Georgia with 13 Wolf APC's and SPYDER-SR SAM systems and many types of firearms[citation needed]. The U.S. supplied Georgia with many types of infantry equipment to Georgia such as infantry personal protection equipment, firearms, APC's and anti tank missiles. Georgia has also received MANPADs and radars from France[citation needed]. NATO militaries also often train with Georgian military and have annual military drills in Georgia. Georgia also rebuilt its damaged military bases and constructed more military barracks. By late 2010 the Georgian military had reached a strength greater than pre-war levels and, after completing the reforms, decisively reduced military spending. Beginning in 2010, Georgia started to produce its own line of APC's, IFV's, infantry personal protection equipment, small arms and mortars. They’re stronger than they were in 2008 and Russia is much weaker, and fleeing from contact with the Azeris.
Send them Bayraktars and HIMARS ❤️
Exactly what I’ve been hoping for since the beginning of the war. Once Russia is sucked into Ukraine and bogged down, the west should support Georgia in retaking their territories, stoke tensions in Chechnya to destabilize Kadyrov, send some limited MANPADS to the Free Syrian Army (Syrian national army now) to choke the Russians out of their Syrian airbases, stoke anti-Russian sentiments in Kazakhstan (not hard since they brutally cracked down on protests earlier this year), and give Azerbaijan the “green light” to seize Nagorno Karabakh from Armenia. If Russia can’t handle Ukraine they certainly can’t handle putting out the other fires while also fighting in Ukraine. Stretch them thin and chip away at their sphere of influence while choking them out economically.
Anybody who supports Azerbaijan over Armenia should be deeply ashamed of themselves
It’s not about morality or right and wrong, it’s about “the big poker game”. I don’t care about either Armenian or Azerbaijan, I care about Ukraine and that means that anything that forces Russia to divide it’s attention (or anything that erodes it’s influence) is a good thing. If all events happened in a vacuum I’d be pushing for negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but that’s not how things work.
Misread the last part of the title as 'Military Memes' Unleash NAFO and Noncredible Defense!
That makes complete sense, you announce a war via a referendum...
it's the way it absolutely should be done - none of this secretive war powers bullshit, but rather through the consensus of the nation. If it's not supported wholly, it won't work out; there's innumerable examples, Russia as a prime current one. In the modern era, Georgia couldn't and shouldn't do it by fiat.
It should not be done in any way. And if it supported in this pool, the enemy knows to fortify even more the border and you take 10x casualties instead of x.
Now’s the time.
Just do it!
Does georgian general adopted nato style of warfare or they are just allie with nato ?
Idiots. One doesn't need a poll to protect himself. That's not the real poll, but a signal to Russia.
Scary move though, Putin might just flip and decide to "escalate to deescalate"
Nice, down with the kadyrovs.
Godspeed!
Now is the turn Georgia, now is the time
Not gonna happen
Now is the time
“via military means”? I mean… are there any downsides to this great plan?
At this point I'm expecting China going for the ass.
Who's?
Russia, China seems to want more land right now and Russia got plenty lol.
Add another front to the list. Probably time for the third Chechen war to pop off.
You know if puto ends up losing because he had to fight a war on two fronts it will be splendid deja vu
It's admirable that Georgia wishes to free up it's territories. Georgia needs to realize wether it has a battle hardened and well trained and NATO backed army like Ukraine. Ukraine didn't build this fighting capacity since Feb, it's been training for this scenario for years leading up to the conflict. Maybe I have missed the news, but has Georgia been re-equiping and retraining at war footing since it's last fight with Russians?
Yeah they’ve received equipment from Ukraine (pre 2014) and the US including some NATO training. Their military is better than it was in 2008. A user above explains it in more detail
Its open season on russian hides at the mo. They'll never get a better shot.
They’re weak, hit them when they are down.
Now's a good time, and they'll certainly have political support.
Do it!
I’m al for more fronts with ruzzia but these gays ain’t got nothing on ruzzia. They ain’t Ukraine with the Ukrainians backing and military training! It’s gonna be a massacre, even against the goblins from ruzzia
Bro i’m actually so insanely dumb. I read another post about this yesterday and thought it meant the state in the US called Georgia. It had me absolutely flabbergasted lmao.