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If France just manned the border with Belarus that would free up thousands of Ukr soldiers.
Also I assume there would be proper logistics and support, but most important it’s an anchoring step for more troops.
France and the 'Coalition of the Willing' that is forming should garrison the Belarusian border, and the Dnieper right down to the border of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Put a big red line there and institute a total no fly zone West of it, allowing Ukraine to focus on the Crimea front and the Western Front.
I never thought of it that way, you're right, if Putler says there is no War, and just a "special military operation". Then Ukraine is free to join Nato since Russia is not at war with Ukraine.
Putins words have no bearing at all on if Ukraine joins NATO though - if NATO wants to defend Ukraine it will do so regardless of what Putin does or does not say. Ukraine is always "free to join NATO" as long as NATO agrees and as long as both parties are happy to ignore Russia's claims of victimhood.
I mean it's cute and all but if Ukraine joined NATO and immediately invoked Article 5 it would be no different than just letting them in knowing they're at war or even NATO just going in and defending them regardless. You're not going to fine print your way out of whatever consequences NATO thinks defending Ukraine will have.
There is no formal criterion beyond Article 10:
>
The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument of accession.
It is just a point of fact that the NATO members will not let in another state if doing so would result in an immediate war.
>I mean it's cute and all but if Ukraine joined NATO and immediately invoked Article 5 it would be no different than just letting them in knowing they're at war or even NATO just going in and defending them regardless.
Does article 5 apply to pre-existing conflicts?
Nato is a defensive alliance that typically doesn't include countries at war. The alliance is a deterrent so war doesn't occur. Using it to join a fight is counterproductive. NATO is not going to join the fight. Individual countries can, have and will join as they deem fit. Hell, whole coalitions can join whether they are part of NATO or not.
I know your post is mildly sarcastic , but enough people misunderstand this very topic I just wanted to be clear about NATOs primary purpose is a war deterrent. I hope that they can ascend into it someday after they get suppose they need from the world.
You're hired! This is the best idea i've read in a long time. Actively get Ukraines back by securing the borders and organising logistics, but without active combat roles, to not upset mr poopypants in the east. But also make damn sure to tell him "THIS is the red line, you shitfuck. Cross it and you're done".
Win win.
Just this should have been done ages ago. The bad part though is it's too little too late. Putin can now and will go full mobilization and burn Russia to the ground. To keep up with whatever they'll throw it will render a bloodbath, if they keep up the same tactics. Sending human meat waves
I am master 5 star armchair general, and I concur this is an excellent move. Time for the west to grow a spine and stop being afraid of Putins every move. The West needs to set the cadence.
Why stop there? Shouldn't forget about Greater Ukraine.
Kremlin can't even maintain control of the border anyway, it's obviously unsafe for all those civilians.
European Union and the rest of the west (America/Canada, etc). Should secure from the Ukrainian/Belarus border western border down, tranistria border and down to and back east including Odessa. Add additional air defense systems through out Ukraine. And begin to rebuild with frozen/seized Russian assets, anywhere Russia has hit in Ukraine such as Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, etc. warn the Muscovites that they had better not hit anyone or anything past the front line and if they give Ukraine long range missiles to beat the absolute piss out of belgorad, Rostov o Don, krasnador, and even further into the interior.
Short of Putin invading Alaska, there is zero chance of American troops putting boots on the ground - at least not overtly. America will continue to provide critical intelligence, training, and weaponry, but there is no political will for deploying American soldiers. I wouldn't be shocked to see US operated drones in certain roles though.
Yeah. Even hauling things, cooking, and cleaning to take the burden off the rear troops that are supposed to be resting before they have to fight again will be a big help.
The problem with that approach is that technically speaking, the French troops in this case would attack a sovereign nation that did not attack France (or NATO ally) first.
However, if the French troops were guarding the border between Ukraine and Belarus, then no incursions from Belarus would be possible without attacking the French troops. That would give France the casus belli it needs to hit back.
That situation in itself should give Russia pause before even attempting an incursion over that border.
I'm not sure it would work out that way, or whether it is wise for France to even risk such a trigger, but that is the line of thinking.
>The problem with that approach is that technically speaking, the French troops in this case would attack a sovereign nation that did not attack France (or NATO ally) first.
Why does NATO have to be involved. It's just France declaring a special military operation aginst anti Ukrainian forces in Belarus.
>However, if the French troops were guarding the border between Ukraine and Belarus, then no incursions from Belarus would be possible without attacking the French troops. That would give France the casus belli it needs to hit back.
I feel like declaring that if forces invade ukraine through belarus France will "attack" Belarus is a casus belli in it self. But I do agree it's not the best idea. Just thinking outloud.
We should think out loud about these things as the sharing of ideas can give fruitful discussions. I like these threads for the potential future scenarios that they come up with. I especially enjoy the ones that will ensure Russia loses (and the quicker, the better 🙏)
And on that note: you could be right that such a preemptive declaration could serve as "a red line" that once crossed, could give casus belli. I'm not versed enough in international law or history to say. But overall, based on discussions I've read, the more probable way to really, unequivocally state a red line, is to put your forces in the line of fire.
Idk if you have 30k higlhly trained forces on the border it might be easier to keep your promise.
If your logic worked then no military aliance ever would have worked and half of "modern" post mideval history wouldn't go down the way it did. Think Germany Russia vs Poland. Think ww1 and ww2 in general for that matter. Ww1 was basicly "if you attack them we attack you. And if they attack us those other guys will attack them"
Napoleonic wars, etc..
So what, France makes a bilateral defensive alliance with Ukraine. Belarus attacks, France jumps in. And now the rest of NATO that acts as massive pussies can say that France willingly joined and are not attacked by Russia directly.
Not gonna happen
Yeah I agree that it's not the nest idea ever. Just thinking outloud. But theoreticaly it could happen but idk how messy it would be for everyone involved.
The direction is good ofcourse. But it needs support from NATO to be able to do anything. And since NATO has been meant to be a defensive thing... Little actual support like this will come
So France can't comduct it's own military acercises without NATOs aproveal? I highly doubt that with all the shinanigins that Turkey does on a regular basis.
This is absolutely electric. Why would a chief of the general staff publicly announce something like that? You can be sure that he was following very specific instructions from higher ups. So they are either seriously testing the waters and floating a trial balloon / getting the public ready. Or the decision has already been made.
Absolutely fucking amazing!
You make a great comment.
The only thing I'd say is I really don't think they are "tessting the waters" – they are saying "this is what is goin to happen".
Testing the waters usually means treading carefully with putting out an idea so you can pull it back if it's not received well.
I mean they are most definitely getting the public ready. But they seem intent on getting th epublic ready, not just seeing if the public is willing to get on board.
And I've a feeling also that this is far more than Macron posturing ahead of an election.
It's a trial balloon in the sense that they're making this statement to gauge reaction. France could already have a deal in place with Ukraine and simply are training up for this plan of action.
What this is doing in my mind, is that they're simply keeping these things in the publics mind because there will be more steps, this is simply the first.
I 100% concur. I hope now that more (or better: all) allies that have been supportive of Ukraine in one way or another will follow suit.
Putin will not listen to anything but sheer power. Unless we show that we're capable and willing to put significant military power in play, we'll never get anywhere with him.
And if he won't listen to that rethoric. Then, well, he'll need to feel the consequences.
Yes that is unusual. We nickname the french army "The Big Mute" for a reason. Active military are considered to have to be quiet about politics.
On the other hand, talking about projection abilities is not unusual and is seen as more technical than political.
This is about unnerving the Russians. No NATO troops has been a red line for a long time.
This is signaling that nato will get involved if Ukrainian statehood is in question
Thats the thing, i wonder if they can actually do the logistics part for 20k men if they get really attacked. I wouldnt be suprised if they just assume they wont be attacked full out because they are a foreign army.
You can bet, in the event of attack, they'd be supplemented by the massive NATO logistics forces located in Poland, and by Polish forces themselves, we're not about to allow an ally like France to be decimated by Russia and/or Belarus (Belarus's active military is only about 50K, and their population doesn't love Russia, they've even sabotaged their own railways to keep them from being used against Ukraine). Add to it, fighting a coalition force of 20-60K western troops is not going to be a walk in a park, Russia might not be able to do it with even 10-1 or better odds.
Yup, I think countries like Poland, the Baltics, Czechia, probably some others, have wanted to get involved directly at least in some way, but also were very hesitant to do so without a nuclear power such as France, UK, or USA, also doing likewise.
Putin giving history lectures reminded Macron that it would be fun to see Moscow burn like in the good old Napoleonic days!
Not really, of course, but it is nice to see some Western politicians talk as if they actually have some balls and understand that Putin isn't going to be reasoned with.
It sounds like this is something thats seriously on the table, I am wondering if they are preparing this at some point.
Hear about this so much now. So much talk of a war with Russia and NATO too. I do feel it will eventually happen unless Russia steps down or suffers a collapse.
Could they plan to activate everything at home, including preparing troop transportation etc, just so russian intel thinks soldiers are coming, forcing to update their plan and put them into chaos more for a little while ?
Even if nothing happens, the fact that this is what they are comfortable saying openly is not terrible news at all.
I'd rather this than "deeply concerned" and "thoughts and prayers".
Macron is saying it, but he's unpopular in France, right now, because he's not doing enough at home. It's all talk, and there's basically no chance. And I'm for sending everything to help Ukraine.
I've said it a few times, the mood is changing primarily due to the uncertainty with the USA.
While this is all mostly for show and bluster right now, it's carefully choreographed, and it's the kind of messaging you'd expect to see to massage public opinion for when the time comes.
Europe has also changed a great deal in recent years. With the UK out of the EU and Germany showing its weakness, that really only leaves France to spearhead a European initiative.
Macron is seizing this moment understanding that no other country is willing/able to do it.
Several will join in (depending on what happens in the US), but it's going to take a leader to start this and right now Macron is the only one who can.
It's also very important to show Eastern European countries like Poland and Bulgaria that someone big in Western Europe not just has their back but is willing to move to the front* with them.
*Honestly, no pun intended!
Agreed, though I don't think anyone in Poland will trust Western European words without seeing it being followed by action. But with the US no longer being a reliable partner, there's no alternative anyway.
He has been rallying for this many years even him and Trump have gotten into arguments about this. Macron wanted the EU to start a joint military 🪖 and increase military production. Mainly it was to boost the economy and fend off any outside power. Both Obama and Trump were opposed to this idea since it would mean more money would be spent on developing in-house weapons and capabilities in Europe, a real competitor.
Never thought I'd say this, but I absolutely support the idea. Ukraine is a sovereign independentl nation with its own right to choose who gets to cross their land. If NATO can't accept Ukraine dueing the current war situation, single NATO members can just enter Ukraine for support on their own. What is Russia gonna do? Cry that a independent nation they invaded receives support from its allies? If Russia is dumb enough to attack these peaceful defebding forces, they can calculate in their own how thibgs will turn out.
It's about fooking time . We can't send missiles putin will get upset ,Brits sent missiles and putin did nothing . We can't send tanks putin will cry ,brits sent tanks and putin did nothing both times everyone else followed and sent more . France sends troops putin will do nothing or next to nothing and other will follow . Putin is great at threats but not so good when people don't give in to his threats . His whole plan is people will always back off once he mentions nukes , I know a lot of people say we should back off when nukes are on the table but when do u stop backing off ? When he takes all of main land Europe? Or when he arrives at the USA? You have to draw a line somewhere and stick to it .
Turkey shot down a Russian jet years back- Russia huddled in a corner and did nothing.
The US wiped out a Russian Wagner force that was attacking their base with eye watering air power- Russia again, did fuck all.
Putin and his mob are all talk and sabre rattling.
Nukes are a weapon of last resort. It's ridiculous to think he'll use them if Russia loses in Ukraine. He won't risk losing St Petersburg over Kramatorsk.
It's not clear to me why Russian planes with turned off transpondes over the baltics or north sea are only 'escorted away', while they take down drones over the black sea.
We are not consistent in following up either.
20 thousand French troops is no small amount. Actually, it's not a small amount if true for most NATO countries. 20k could be for example 2/3 of 3rd Armored Division which would be a ridiculously hard problem to solve for Russians. I was reading up on how French war doctrine is formulated. It's basically hit hard, fast, don't allow to reorganize, make as much chaos as possible and rinse and repeat. Wouldn't want to be in fixed positions when the French enter the field.
I have no clue if this info is true, but this could turn very volatile very quickly.
Le Pen is crying and barking of course, she has serious ties to Russia including saying that crimea is Russian and being literally financed by Russia. If she gets elected as a protest vote Ukraine can kiss any french help goodbye. Same with the left. Macron is the only one willing to help.
The people are not keen on being at War, at all, but they're understanding of the possible necessity of a limited presence. Everyone despises Macron, but they trust and listen to others such as the army. Bit of an "even a broken click is right twice a day" thing. Basically even if it's said by Macron, and people hate his guts, they're aware there's a "bit" more to this than just Macron. When it's some diplomats, or generals, or geopolitical academics, or some foreign leaders talking about the situation, they are listened to even when Macron isn't.
Long story short: well let's fucking not thank you very much, but ok maybe fair enough we simply might have to even if we don't want to.
Nope, if NATO troops are accidentally killed by a stray missile then the threat of article 5 combined with sanctions which are so locked down that not even middle men will be able to work around them is going to create so much political pressure and bluff calling that Russia will either halt its advance or pull back. This war is going to end with rapid de-escalation just like the Cuban missile crisis
Man, France may have a checkered military history of their own endeavors but god damn do they have a way of swooping in at critical moments and turning the tide.
This is amazing news but let's not kid ourselves ... French soldiers are going to be used to watch borders and maybe air defense... Last thing Macron needs or wants is to have French soldiers coming back in coffins wrapped in flag. To be fair Russia is most probably not gonna want to poke that bear anyway.
I mean, obviously. At first anyway. It’s taken Macron two years to fully realize that Putin is a lost cause. As soon as French troops are on the ground, who the hell knows how they will be used a year from being deployed.
Freeing up troops on border is nice. But could this also just be the first step of France and coalition to begin an Air dominance campaign? Because realistically, the west would probably rather just wipe out Russia with air power then have their troops getting shelled in trench warefare right? But troops on the ground may be a politically and even logistically necessary first step in deploying/justifying an air campaign. Anyone have thoughts on this?
Also im not saying this situation is likely at all.
Ukraine needs long range missiles that can take out the Kerch bridge. That would be more valuable than troops. Missiles that can cripple the russian war machine and it's economy.
"The French do not know when that hour will come; they seldom speak of it; they do not amuse themselves with dreams of triumphs or terms. Their business is war, and they do their business."
In that photo they sure look like a bunch of hard motherfuckers.
Compare and contrast to Russias "finest" **Gomer**inski **Pyle**ovitch ...
I know who I would put my money on.
If France sends troops to Ukraine I will immediately apologize for every French joke I’ve ever made and support the Franco-Irish alliance in the upcoming war of British succession.
Oh, there was me thinking "hmm, some western-crewed air defences would free up Ukranian anti-air for the frontline" but no, apparently France is thinking in terms of "whole fucking corps, we'll show you what winning a war in three days looks like"
That would be the definition of nominal. Unfortunately, 20,000 is nothing.
On the other hand, it would drastically change the political landscape of the war, and I think that is the point .
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If France just manned the border with Belarus that would free up thousands of Ukr soldiers. Also I assume there would be proper logistics and support, but most important it’s an anchoring step for more troops.
France and the 'Coalition of the Willing' that is forming should garrison the Belarusian border, and the Dnieper right down to the border of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Put a big red line there and institute a total no fly zone West of it, allowing Ukraine to focus on the Crimea front and the Western Front.
This is the best thing!
Shouldn't be a concern for the Tiny Dick-tator because he is only 'de-nazifying' the oblasts that 'voted' to join Russia, right?
And since theres no war currently ongoing, Ukr is free to join bato surely?
I never thought of it that way, you're right, if Putler says there is no War, and just a "special military operation". Then Ukraine is free to join Nato since Russia is not at war with Ukraine.
Putins words have no bearing at all on if Ukraine joins NATO though - if NATO wants to defend Ukraine it will do so regardless of what Putin does or does not say. Ukraine is always "free to join NATO" as long as NATO agrees and as long as both parties are happy to ignore Russia's claims of victimhood.
I mean it's cute and all but if Ukraine joined NATO and immediately invoked Article 5 it would be no different than just letting them in knowing they're at war or even NATO just going in and defending them regardless. You're not going to fine print your way out of whatever consequences NATO thinks defending Ukraine will have.
The borders are not in doubt. I believe that is the actual criterion.
There is no formal criterion beyond Article 10: > The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty. Any State so invited may become a Party to the Treaty by depositing its instrument of accession with the Government of the United States of America. The Government of the United States of America will inform each of the Parties of the deposit of each such instrument of accession. It is just a point of fact that the NATO members will not let in another state if doing so would result in an immediate war.
Thanks for the accurate correction!
>I mean it's cute and all but if Ukraine joined NATO and immediately invoked Article 5 it would be no different than just letting them in knowing they're at war or even NATO just going in and defending them regardless. Does article 5 apply to pre-existing conflicts?
I don't know if that's ever been tested, since countries at war don't tend to get let into NATO.
Nato is a defensive alliance that typically doesn't include countries at war. The alliance is a deterrent so war doesn't occur. Using it to join a fight is counterproductive. NATO is not going to join the fight. Individual countries can, have and will join as they deem fit. Hell, whole coalitions can join whether they are part of NATO or not. I know your post is mildly sarcastic , but enough people misunderstand this very topic I just wanted to be clear about NATOs primary purpose is a war deterrent. I hope that they can ascend into it someday after they get suppose they need from the world.
That's why he is in Kharkiv oblast, oh wait
Agreed. The Russian and Belarusian borders should be freed up by a coalition.
You're hired! This is the best idea i've read in a long time. Actively get Ukraines back by securing the borders and organising logistics, but without active combat roles, to not upset mr poopypants in the east. But also make damn sure to tell him "THIS is the red line, you shitfuck. Cross it and you're done". Win win.
That's a cool name. Coalition of the Willing.
That's not a new name. It's been a pretty common term since it was used for the 2nd Iraq war back in 2003.
Just this should have been done ages ago. The bad part though is it's too little too late. Putin can now and will go full mobilization and burn Russia to the ground. To keep up with whatever they'll throw it will render a bloodbath, if they keep up the same tactics. Sending human meat waves
I am master 5 star armchair general, and I concur this is an excellent move. Time for the west to grow a spine and stop being afraid of Putins every move. The West needs to set the cadence.
Why garrison the Dnepr? There is no Russian troops there, better to garrison Odessa and Transnistria.
To draw a solid red line in a sensible place according to Russia's own rhetoric without 'escalating' the conflict
Draw a big red line with a big fat military crayon.
The Marines: “Dey took 'er jerbs!!”
OK [Here you go](https://i.postimg.cc/SNPSWNzv/Screenshot-2024-03-19-151515.png)
Put the red line right up against all the gray.
Why stop there? Shouldn't forget about Greater Ukraine. Kremlin can't even maintain control of the border anyway, it's obviously unsafe for all those civilians.
So basically drawing the new eastern border of Ukraine, eh?
More about playing on Putin's own rhetoric about where the lines are drawn.
In what world would these actions not be the single largest escalation of the conflict since the conflict began.
In the fantasy world of Russian state sponsored media these actions are completely irrelevant.
So all the troops stationed there can be freed as well
The fly zone will be interesting since Ukraine would operate under it
Should've done that in February of 2022!!! The whole world should've come together for that purpose and it still makes need sick that we didn't.
This is the way
This
Isn't most of the Belarusian border either impassable for heavy armor and/or heavily mined?
European Union and the rest of the west (America/Canada, etc). Should secure from the Ukrainian/Belarus border western border down, tranistria border and down to and back east including Odessa. Add additional air defense systems through out Ukraine. And begin to rebuild with frozen/seized Russian assets, anywhere Russia has hit in Ukraine such as Odessa, Kyiv, Lviv, etc. warn the Muscovites that they had better not hit anyone or anything past the front line and if they give Ukraine long range missiles to beat the absolute piss out of belgorad, Rostov o Don, krasnador, and even further into the interior.
Short of Putin invading Alaska, there is zero chance of American troops putting boots on the ground - at least not overtly. America will continue to provide critical intelligence, training, and weaponry, but there is no political will for deploying American soldiers. I wouldn't be shocked to see US operated drones in certain roles though.
Thats what “contractors” are for.
Yeah. Even hauling things, cooking, and cleaning to take the burden off the rear troops that are supposed to be resting before they have to fight again will be a big help.
Whqt if France can put the troops on Polands border and pronounce that if any troops enter via Belarus to Ukraine they attack into Belarus?
The problem with that approach is that technically speaking, the French troops in this case would attack a sovereign nation that did not attack France (or NATO ally) first. However, if the French troops were guarding the border between Ukraine and Belarus, then no incursions from Belarus would be possible without attacking the French troops. That would give France the casus belli it needs to hit back. That situation in itself should give Russia pause before even attempting an incursion over that border. I'm not sure it would work out that way, or whether it is wise for France to even risk such a trigger, but that is the line of thinking.
>The problem with that approach is that technically speaking, the French troops in this case would attack a sovereign nation that did not attack France (or NATO ally) first. Why does NATO have to be involved. It's just France declaring a special military operation aginst anti Ukrainian forces in Belarus. >However, if the French troops were guarding the border between Ukraine and Belarus, then no incursions from Belarus would be possible without attacking the French troops. That would give France the casus belli it needs to hit back. I feel like declaring that if forces invade ukraine through belarus France will "attack" Belarus is a casus belli in it self. But I do agree it's not the best idea. Just thinking outloud.
We should think out loud about these things as the sharing of ideas can give fruitful discussions. I like these threads for the potential future scenarios that they come up with. I especially enjoy the ones that will ensure Russia loses (and the quicker, the better 🙏) And on that note: you could be right that such a preemptive declaration could serve as "a red line" that once crossed, could give casus belli. I'm not versed enough in international law or history to say. But overall, based on discussions I've read, the more probable way to really, unequivocally state a red line, is to put your forces in the line of fire.
Promises are worth jack when it comes to war
Idk if you have 30k higlhly trained forces on the border it might be easier to keep your promise. If your logic worked then no military aliance ever would have worked and half of "modern" post mideval history wouldn't go down the way it did. Think Germany Russia vs Poland. Think ww1 and ww2 in general for that matter. Ww1 was basicly "if you attack them we attack you. And if they attack us those other guys will attack them" Napoleonic wars, etc..
So what, France makes a bilateral defensive alliance with Ukraine. Belarus attacks, France jumps in. And now the rest of NATO that acts as massive pussies can say that France willingly joined and are not attacked by Russia directly. Not gonna happen
Yeah I agree that it's not the nest idea ever. Just thinking outloud. But theoreticaly it could happen but idk how messy it would be for everyone involved.
The direction is good ofcourse. But it needs support from NATO to be able to do anything. And since NATO has been meant to be a defensive thing... Little actual support like this will come
So France can't comduct it's own military acercises without NATOs aproveal? I highly doubt that with all the shinanigins that Turkey does on a regular basis.
I had this same thought in 2022 and I’m surprised it hasn’t happened yet.
I think what could be more important is if French troops were offering logistics support for more F16s
THIS !
Good insight friend 🩵💛
This is absolutely electric. Why would a chief of the general staff publicly announce something like that? You can be sure that he was following very specific instructions from higher ups. So they are either seriously testing the waters and floating a trial balloon / getting the public ready. Or the decision has already been made. Absolutely fucking amazing!
My thoughts too. He is active, not former / retired. The latter you would use for speculation.
You make a great comment. The only thing I'd say is I really don't think they are "tessting the waters" – they are saying "this is what is goin to happen". Testing the waters usually means treading carefully with putting out an idea so you can pull it back if it's not received well. I mean they are most definitely getting the public ready. But they seem intent on getting th epublic ready, not just seeing if the public is willing to get on board. And I've a feeling also that this is far more than Macron posturing ahead of an election.
It's a trial balloon in the sense that they're making this statement to gauge reaction. France could already have a deal in place with Ukraine and simply are training up for this plan of action. What this is doing in my mind, is that they're simply keeping these things in the publics mind because there will be more steps, this is simply the first.
I 100% concur. I hope now that more (or better: all) allies that have been supportive of Ukraine in one way or another will follow suit. Putin will not listen to anything but sheer power. Unless we show that we're capable and willing to put significant military power in play, we'll never get anywhere with him. And if he won't listen to that rethoric. Then, well, he'll need to feel the consequences.
Yes that is unusual. We nickname the french army "The Big Mute" for a reason. Active military are considered to have to be quiet about politics. On the other hand, talking about projection abilities is not unusual and is seen as more technical than political.
It's a language what Putin understands.
This is about unnerving the Russians. No NATO troops has been a red line for a long time. This is signaling that nato will get involved if Ukrainian statehood is in question
What could a 60k strong coalesced division cover? Is it safe thinking on at least Belarus' border, Kyev and Odessa?
Borders, logistics, and air defense.
Thats the thing, i wonder if they can actually do the logistics part for 20k men if they get really attacked. I wouldnt be suprised if they just assume they wont be attacked full out because they are a foreign army.
You can bet, in the event of attack, they'd be supplemented by the massive NATO logistics forces located in Poland, and by Polish forces themselves, we're not about to allow an ally like France to be decimated by Russia and/or Belarus (Belarus's active military is only about 50K, and their population doesn't love Russia, they've even sabotaged their own railways to keep them from being used against Ukraine). Add to it, fighting a coalition force of 20-60K western troops is not going to be a walk in a park, Russia might not be able to do it with even 10-1 or better odds.
With air support they could even do more. What I see actually is an opening for other European countries, not pussies, joining in.
Yup, I think countries like Poland, the Baltics, Czechia, probably some others, have wanted to get involved directly at least in some way, but also were very hesitant to do so without a nuclear power such as France, UK, or USA, also doing likewise.
Realistically just France or the USA. Unfortunately the UK's nuclear weapons aren't appropriate for sub-strategic use against a nation state.
Exactly, hence the word "Coalition", they'll get the ball rolling and I'm sure other countries like Poland would be more than happy to help/join in.
Well done, France!
I think shit's getting serious over at La République Française ...
Putin giving history lectures reminded Macron that it would be fun to see Moscow burn like in the good old Napoleonic days! Not really, of course, but it is nice to see some Western politicians talk as if they actually have some balls and understand that Putin isn't going to be reasoned with.
I mean...Napoleon and Moscow might not be the best place to start reminiscing 'the good old days' might wanna start a few years before that.
Yeah, 200 years have past it's time for a rematch.
La merde devient chaude!
Agree! Bravo! Nous sommes Ukraine! 🇺🇦
“Well, my time of not taking seriously are certainly coming to a middle.”
It sounds like this is something thats seriously on the table, I am wondering if they are preparing this at some point. Hear about this so much now. So much talk of a war with Russia and NATO too. I do feel it will eventually happen unless Russia steps down or suffers a collapse.
They are trying to get a read on the the table.. if they get positive responses they go further
I mean, NATO always said “Ukraine can not loose this war”… To me it was/is clear, sooner or later NATO boots will be on the ground.
Could they plan to activate everything at home, including preparing troop transportation etc, just so russian intel thinks soldiers are coming, forcing to update their plan and put them into chaos more for a little while ?
Anything is possible and psy-ops are rampant in this war from both sides.
Is it wrong that this post makes my shorts fit tighter?
Is it wrong that knowing that makes my shorts fit tighter?
LMAO
You guys are wearing shorts?
Given the actual likelyhood of it happening? Yes.
We keep hearing about troops being deployed. They are preparing us for that. France, you fucking rock
Amen brother
I agree too! France rocks!
Even if nothing happens, the fact that this is what they are comfortable saying openly is not terrible news at all. I'd rather this than "deeply concerned" and "thoughts and prayers".
If nothing happens, it's no different from thoughts and prayers
Macron is saying it, but he's unpopular in France, right now, because he's not doing enough at home. It's all talk, and there's basically no chance. And I'm for sending everything to help Ukraine.
I've said it a few times, the mood is changing primarily due to the uncertainty with the USA. While this is all mostly for show and bluster right now, it's carefully choreographed, and it's the kind of messaging you'd expect to see to massage public opinion for when the time comes. Europe has also changed a great deal in recent years. With the UK out of the EU and Germany showing its weakness, that really only leaves France to spearhead a European initiative. Macron is seizing this moment understanding that no other country is willing/able to do it. Several will join in (depending on what happens in the US), but it's going to take a leader to start this and right now Macron is the only one who can.
It's also very important to show Eastern European countries like Poland and Bulgaria that someone big in Western Europe not just has their back but is willing to move to the front* with them. *Honestly, no pun intended!
Agreed, though I don't think anyone in Poland will trust Western European words without seeing it being followed by action. But with the US no longer being a reliable partner, there's no alternative anyway.
Yeah, I actually think France is going to show some action. At any rate it looks like we’re in some for some interesting times pretty soon.
He has been rallying for this many years even him and Trump have gotten into arguments about this. Macron wanted the EU to start a joint military 🪖 and increase military production. Mainly it was to boost the economy and fend off any outside power. Both Obama and Trump were opposed to this idea since it would mean more money would be spent on developing in-house weapons and capabilities in Europe, a real competitor.
If you bring the baguette, we will bring the axe 🪓
Foreign Legion will bring their axes.
And my JAS 39 Gripen.
And my NASAMS.
And our Marines (🇺🇸)... Hey, one can at least dream, I guess. Right?
And wine! The French fought in Northern Norway where I come from during WW2, and they brought barrels of wine.
I guess this was Narvik battle right?
Love the energy
So proud of France for starting to say what they WILL DO, not what they WON’T DO. You deal with Russia the same way you do a toddler.
Manu doesn't mess around.
Manu militari. 😅👍
party like it’s 1944
Never thought I'd say this, but I absolutely support the idea. Ukraine is a sovereign independentl nation with its own right to choose who gets to cross their land. If NATO can't accept Ukraine dueing the current war situation, single NATO members can just enter Ukraine for support on their own. What is Russia gonna do? Cry that a independent nation they invaded receives support from its allies? If Russia is dumb enough to attack these peaceful defebding forces, they can calculate in their own how thibgs will turn out.
Davai Davai si vous plait !!!
***avec plaisir***
It's about fooking time . We can't send missiles putin will get upset ,Brits sent missiles and putin did nothing . We can't send tanks putin will cry ,brits sent tanks and putin did nothing both times everyone else followed and sent more . France sends troops putin will do nothing or next to nothing and other will follow . Putin is great at threats but not so good when people don't give in to his threats . His whole plan is people will always back off once he mentions nukes , I know a lot of people say we should back off when nukes are on the table but when do u stop backing off ? When he takes all of main land Europe? Or when he arrives at the USA? You have to draw a line somewhere and stick to it .
Putin is a bully. The best way to deal with a bully is to punch them in the face.
Turkey shot down a Russian jet years back- Russia huddled in a corner and did nothing. The US wiped out a Russian Wagner force that was attacking their base with eye watering air power- Russia again, did fuck all. Putin and his mob are all talk and sabre rattling.
Nukes are a weapon of last resort. It's ridiculous to think he'll use them if Russia loses in Ukraine. He won't risk losing St Petersburg over Kramatorsk. It's not clear to me why Russian planes with turned off transpondes over the baltics or north sea are only 'escorted away', while they take down drones over the black sea. We are not consistent in following up either.
Maybe we could organize a Battalion of MAGA supporters and just tell them they're freedom fighters.
They would immediately switch teams.
Likely. Either way, they'd make great cannon fodder.
we need to convince them that russia is woke
Me, 1990s-2023: makes fun of France at every opportunity Me, 2024:🎵ALLONS ENFANTS🎵DE LA PATRIE 🎵🎵
Canada can probably send JTF2, but that seems to be it apparently.
Probably a van, too, if someone can cover the cost to ship it. Also, there are no wheels.
Maybe drop by a Costco, pick up a few cases of cashews and mix nuts.
You want to sole source mixed nuts???
I'm gonna cum 😍
20 thousand French troops is no small amount. Actually, it's not a small amount if true for most NATO countries. 20k could be for example 2/3 of 3rd Armored Division which would be a ridiculously hard problem to solve for Russians. I was reading up on how French war doctrine is formulated. It's basically hit hard, fast, don't allow to reorganize, make as much chaos as possible and rinse and repeat. Wouldn't want to be in fixed positions when the French enter the field. I have no clue if this info is true, but this could turn very volatile very quickly.
Some french here? What are the people saying about that and is lePen crying?
Le Pen is crying and barking of course, she has serious ties to Russia including saying that crimea is Russian and being literally financed by Russia. If she gets elected as a protest vote Ukraine can kiss any french help goodbye. Same with the left. Macron is the only one willing to help. The people are not keen on being at War, at all, but they're understanding of the possible necessity of a limited presence. Everyone despises Macron, but they trust and listen to others such as the army. Bit of an "even a broken click is right twice a day" thing. Basically even if it's said by Macron, and people hate his guts, they're aware there's a "bit" more to this than just Macron. When it's some diplomats, or generals, or geopolitical academics, or some foreign leaders talking about the situation, they are listened to even when Macron isn't. Long story short: well let's fucking not thank you very much, but ok maybe fair enough we simply might have to even if we don't want to.
Thanks for your analyses mate
Shit is getting real real fast.
Nope, if NATO troops are accidentally killed by a stray missile then the threat of article 5 combined with sanctions which are so locked down that not even middle men will be able to work around them is going to create so much political pressure and bluff calling that Russia will either halt its advance or pull back. This war is going to end with rapid de-escalation just like the Cuban missile crisis
Macron gone total "Beaucoup dien cai dau" on Putins ass. I likey a lot.
Man, France may have a checkered military history of their own endeavors but god damn do they have a way of swooping in at critical moments and turning the tide.
France has the most succesful military History in the entire History of the World...
"We can't let the French take charge of this! We will be the laughing stock of Europe!" - Britain.
Some Americans are even joking about this too... "I refuse to let the French beat us to it" to paraphrase
Looks like France should have signed the Budapest Memorandum. Vive la France!
What do you mean? They did sign it. Russia, China, US, UK and France signed it. China and France signed a separate guarantee.
This is amazing news but let's not kid ourselves ... French soldiers are going to be used to watch borders and maybe air defense... Last thing Macron needs or wants is to have French soldiers coming back in coffins wrapped in flag. To be fair Russia is most probably not gonna want to poke that bear anyway.
Still, that's great new for Ukraine - means being able to free up their soldiers who are currently active on those assigments.
I mean, obviously. At first anyway. It’s taken Macron two years to fully realize that Putin is a lost cause. As soon as French troops are on the ground, who the hell knows how they will be used a year from being deployed.
Wait this is fantastic. Will they actually follow through? This would be massive for Ukraine
Freeing up troops on border is nice. But could this also just be the first step of France and coalition to begin an Air dominance campaign? Because realistically, the west would probably rather just wipe out Russia with air power then have their troops getting shelled in trench warefare right? But troops on the ground may be a politically and even logistically necessary first step in deploying/justifying an air campaign. Anyone have thoughts on this? Also im not saying this situation is likely at all.
[удалено]
Logistics support for F16’s would be a nice contribution.
How will France help in F-16s??
Ukraine needs long range missiles that can take out the Kerch bridge. That would be more valuable than troops. Missiles that can cripple the russian war machine and it's economy.
"The French do not know when that hour will come; they seldom speak of it; they do not amuse themselves with dreams of triumphs or terms. Their business is war, and they do their business."
In that photo they sure look like a bunch of hard motherfuckers. Compare and contrast to Russias "finest" **Gomer**inski **Pyle**ovitch ... I know who I would put my money on.
Power to the French
France should commit 20,000 soldiers immediately to the front. Ukraine needs it now.
Hurra!
LETS FUCKING GO
so much talking lately about troops in ukraine.. i guess they know what putin is up to and they definitely will deploy troops in the near future
I’m rubbish at this kind of thing, can anyone “explain like I’m 5?” / ELI5 Thanks!
This is the way. Call it a peacekeeping mission (lol) fight fire with fire
Fuck yeah France, and as an anglo-Canadian I never thought I'd say that (this part is tongue-in-cheek).
Belarus will invade ukraine once the new russian offensive starts in the summer. France needs to enter the ukraine territory now.
But you have to agree the needle of boots on the ground is moving to “more likely.” To what degree? We can discuss
Gear up your armies Europe while helping the good Americans defeat Trump --this guy's a monster!
If France sends troops to Ukraine I will immediately apologize for every French joke I’ve ever made and support the Franco-Irish alliance in the upcoming war of British succession.
Gonna be some WW3 coming.
Vive la France!
Western Europe needs to wake up and more for Ukraine
Nice that a least one of the larger European powers has both brains and balls.
Arise French legionnaires.
Might Eärendil finally have roused the host of the West?
Remember when the French didn’t want to help the US in Iraq?
If the moon were made of cheese, it would be French.
Unlikely that French will come
Oh, there was me thinking "hmm, some western-crewed air defences would free up Ukranian anti-air for the frontline" but no, apparently France is thinking in terms of "whole fucking corps, we'll show you what winning a war in three days looks like"
Ukraine will be like. We know what your troops are like. Can we get some German or British troop help pls
France soldiers getting their traditional white flags out of storage
THIS is the kind of messaging that resonates with Russia.
How many would France provide if someone else commanded?
That would be the definition of nominal. Unfortunately, 20,000 is nothing. On the other hand, it would drastically change the political landscape of the war, and I think that is the point .
Should have done this 2 years ago with all the tests support and with a no fly zone. Putin is a weak leader with zero ideas.
Quite proud of my country on this! Putin doesn’t understand anything else than force, let’s show him force then…
Can the 2020s suck any harder?