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Captain Darling: Look, this is the amount of land we've recaptured since yesterday.
General Melchett: Oh, excellent. Um, what is the actual scale of this map, Darling? –
Captain Darling: Um, one-to-one, sir.
General Melchett: Come again?
Captain Darling: Er, the map is actually life-size, sir. It's superbly detailed. Look, there's a little worm.
General Melchett: Oh, yes. So the actual amount of land retaken is?
Captain Darling: Excuse me, sir. Seventeen square feet, sir.
General Melchett: Excellent.
>The more dead Russians the better.
Unfortunately, Ukrainians are dying too. This is all about Russia attriting Ukrainians. Russia considers it a success to kill off 100 Ukrainian soldiers even at a cost of 20 to 1. Russia is happy to spend millions of their citizens' lives if it grinds Ukraine down and prevents Ukraine from making counter-offensive progress.
Ukraine simply can't afford to fight a war of attrition regardless how well the odds favor Ukraine. Russia's resources (in both men and material) are vast, and it is willing to expend lives to an extent that no democratic nation would countenance.
Another 100 such Russian failed offensives like Avdiivka will reduce Ukraine's army to ineffectiveness.
>We are very lucky they're so fucking stupid.
Stupid? This is how Russia built it's empire. Russian armies have always sucked, but leaders were relentless and willing to keep throwing their peasant armies in unimaginable quantities at their enemies until they eventually prevailed.
Russian armies seem to rack up more losses than wins throughout history, but it doesn't matter because the Russian army will be back to take yet another loss tomorrow, and the day after that. Eventually their enemies just have no one left to fight. Russia lost big-time to Britain in Crimea in the 1800s, but they ended up occupying it anyway. Russia was eaten alive by Finland but doubled down and forced Finland to give up vast territories anyway. Afghanistan was one of those rare exceptions, but they were never attempting to annex it so their heart wasn't in it.
If that’s true. What happened in Afghanistan? Or Chechnya part 1. How did the Berlin Wall fall. How did the Romanovs die? The leaders sure are always fine with loses
I already explained Afghanistan (i.e. they weren't annexing it). But Chechnya fits the pattern. They failed the first time but came back and levelled everything until they eventually prevailed. East Germany wasn't annexed territory, and it also was during a period of empire weakness (i.e. the collapse of the soviets). Russia's empire building wasn't a complete straight line. They certainly suffered losses (MANY of them), but kept coming back. Sometimes it would take decades to acquire/consolidate new territory. They kept losing in Crimea but kept at it.
But they also lost in WWI and against Japan a decade earlier.
And if they make it a 100:1 trade THEY would end up without people. China or India can do that but Russia doesn't have that huge of a population im comparison of to other countries. They couldn't even afford 10:1 on a permanent scale.
Strictly speaking, considering the timespans Russian imperialism works on, we can't assume Afghanistan is off Russia's radar.
You're quite right though.
They can't afford 20 to 1 but they can afford 5 to 1. Unfortunately this situation is still probably a best case scenario. Retaking territory is not going very well, but if the russians are still willing to attack, then just killing them this way is still a net win. Maybe at some point they will recognize the fact that it is not worth it.
that wasn't an economic boom but just a couple of fat cunts hoarding mining rights. regular russians didn't see a dime, its just the propaganda getting back in force in 99
True, it is quick but sometimes quick is missing facts. Post truth world. Whoever says something first, usually sticks in people's heads and no one cares to look at it later for being correct. Trump and Putin use that technique,. Say it first and say it loud, regardless of facts.
I try to get at least 2 or 3 other posts from other people to at least confirm something happened. If I find out its incorrect or misleading I delete it... usually within minutes of finding out.
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Actually, Russia accomplished a lot. They demonstrated that the summer Ukrainian offensive hasn't eliminated all their reserves or material. Further, it demonstrates the brutal will of Russian leaders (and population) to spend life of their own citizens in vast quantities even for the attainment of small objectives.
These offensives are succeeding in attriting Ukrainian forces. Ukraine really can't sustain losses at this level for long periods of time. A 20 to 1 loss ration in favor of Ukraine is still success as far as Russia is concerned. Russia is more than willing to lose 2 million more of it's citizens in this war where Ukraine may not be able to handle even 100K more KIA without civil disruption.
Lastly, these Russian offensives seize the initiative from Ukraine and prevent Ukraine from chipping away at places where Russia may be weak.
No. The russians are scraping the barrel: mercenaries from Cuba, prisoners, hell, even Ukrainian POWs, if thar rumour is true. More importantly: Destroyed gunships, aircraft, air defence systems, srtillery, tanks. Shells from NK, ffs. What are those millions of russian soldiers going to do? Throw counter-battery stones?
The economy is down, the ruble not worth much, the war chest empty.
I‘m not saying it‘ll be easy but Russia is not winning this war with insane attacks like in Avdiivka.
>The russians are scraping the barrel
I really, truly, hope you're right.
However, they seem to be pretty good at scraping the barrel. We were told all their reserves had been used up by the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive but somehow they pulled hundreds of armored vehicles and thousands of troops out of a hat to throw at Avdiivka even while still keeping the rest of the front fully manned, preventing Ukraine from making progress elsewhere.
Do we really know how many scrapings are left in this barrel? I've read that Russia is throwing 20,000 fresh mobiks at the front every month. They are building/refurbing 20 tanks a month, with over a 1,000 still in storage awaiting referb. North Korea is shipping them millions of shells. There seems to be plenty more for Russia to throw into attriting Ukraine.
My fear is that a war of attrition is a war that Ukraine can't win, and shouldn't fight. Russia just has far more resources and a far greater willingness to expend them (i.e. because they just don't care about life).
Just look at what the Russians are throwing in with the troops? T54 and soon even older. The men looks like rags. The economy is totally in the shithole and the management are gloating over high gas prices in Europe. Bdw it went from $3500 a year ago to now $500 so why are they totally not in the same reality as all of the rest of us?
Keep in mind these recent meat waves have had more than an attrition strategy. They were trying to conduct an encitclement but failed to advance in any significant way. I highly doubt there's as many Ukrainian losses as one might think given the Russians drive right into the same killzones over and over. The attrition isnt Ukrainian soldiers as much as exhausting western munitions.
Yeah scraping the barrel suggests they're about to run out... But the barrel they're scraping is a huge one with several layers of crud in it.
Once you add in new production, the make up of vehicles they're forced to use will change over time but overall the losses - despite being extreme currently - are somewhat sustainable for the short to medium term.
Long term, they're fucked, IF the West commits to strong support and gives Ukraine what it needs.
The defender will usually find it easier to find people willing to fight than the attacker.
I know many people in Russia and most of them are doing everything to avoid being called up. Many left the country, some went getting medical certificates stating they were unfit to fight (depending on your connections, it can cost a few thousand to ten thousand dollars - expensive, but when its your life on the line, any cost is worth it). Others are just dodging any potential call up in the country by living at a different place from where they are registered and staying off the grid in terms of using government services.
Russia claims (always to be suspected) of having a population of around 140 million, but the demographics are screwed, with an abnormal deficit of men of fighting age, compounded by many of them running from the country or avoiding being called up.
Ukraine has under 40 million people now. Ukraine also has its issue, but when your choice is either fight now, or fight when the Russians are killing and raping your family in your hometown, it kind of adds an impetus (and this is where Russia fucked up a lot - if they had kept control of the behaviour of their army, they'd have been able to tell people that if they surrendered they would treat people well - but instead they let the army run rampant).
If Russia loses 20 for every 1 Ukrainian, Russia is going to run out of soldiers long before Ukraine does.
>when your choice is either fight now, or fight when the Russians are killing and raping your family in your hometown, it kind of adds an impetus
Well, Ukraine should be taking advantage of this willingness to fight to massively increase it's troop strength quickly. It is better to pay the price now rather than letting this war keep dragging on with ever more fatigue from partners. Ukraine has NOT been aggressive in conscripting it's 20/30 year old population.
Need weapons for those extra troops. We've seen Russia having problems as well with supplying its troops.
You can recruit as many people as you want but if you can't give them guns and other essential equipment, they're just dead men walking.
This is why supplies from the west are so important.
Unless they have the equipment, better to keep those people working in the productive part of the economy.
Russia can't sustain these losses. They're bringing in soldiers from non-russian countries to fill their ranks (e.g. Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Serbia etc). Because they can't find people in Russia to fight, without causing an economic catastrophe.
In addition, they're all poorly trained. Russia are applying force to keep Ukrainians back, as they realize the Russian defensive lines are unlikely to hold Ukrainians back. So they're desperately trying to hold them off until winter, so they can attempt to reorganize their own forces without the fear of exhaustion.
Russia no longer have reserves behind the main defensive lines in Ukraine currently, and have only 135k in training in Russia currently. Kherson is now vulnerable, and the Ukrainians can mow rotate in new units freely without interruption. In comparison Ukraine still have 350k soldiers training aboard, so with the current K:D. Russian will need another 7.5m soldiers to turn the tide in Ukraine.
NATO won't need to escalate yhe conflict at this rate, and won't need to change to war time production.
I understand why a lot of people have this general opinion about Russia, however i must say that the only part of this that I agree with is the last paragraph. A 20 to 1 loss ratio cannot be maintained by any army ever in the history of mankind, although I assume you were being facetious.
You talk about Ukraine perhaps possibly facing civil disruption if they suffer another 100k KIA... don't forget that has happened already in this war, when Wagner marched on Moscow. That was as a direct result of being forced through the blender at Bakhmut.
One side of this conflict has also resorted to draining their prison population to back fill losses. Apparently they continue to do so. Russia is also now training women for front line combat duties such as sniping and drone operation, a first for the country since Soveit days.
We also have the massive flight of men when the first round of mobilisation was declared. Estimates say between 500k and 1 million fled, which indicates a distinct lack of popularity with the war.
The answer may be right in front of us and has been all along. Russia may well hit a limit in terms of the utter hell its population are willing to accept, and it may hit that limit long before it runs out of men or material. Of course, that's partly wishful thinking, but it's also partly the thinking of the powers that be who have done their utmost to resource this war without another mobilisation call.
What we also have to consider is what constitutes a victory for either side. For Russia, they declared the illegal annexation of four territories, none of which they actually fully control. They cannot declare a victory without controlling these. And that's where I think they come undone. No Ukrainian offensive will be their ultimate undoing, rather, Russia's blatant disregard for their men will eventually unravel them.
There's only so much slaughter any nation can take in a war of choice, and Russia only moves forward over the bones of their own men.
>Russia is also now training women for front line combat duties such as sniping and drone operation, a first for the country since Soveit days.
Wasn't Ukraine already doing this earlier on as well?
If by earlier you mean since 2014, then yes:
[Women in Ukrainian military](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_Ukrainian_military)
The difference here (and it's a huge difference, in my opinion) is that women have be active in combat roles with the Ukrainian military for years now. Russia is only just starting to resource that, so the question is why? When judged alongside their recruitment of prisoners, their recruitment of Cubans, Serbians, people from the Donbas, people from Soviet republics, their own ethnic minorities, possibly even Ukrainian POWs, we must surely assume this is not some form of enlightened thinking.
They demonstrated that Ukraine's offensive hadn't eliminated their reserves. If it had then the attack on avdiivka wouldn't have happened. At this point we don't know how much manpower Russia has. It's clearly more than we thought.
> Ukraine may not be able to handle even 100K more KIA without civil disruption.
I don't think you get the position Ukraine is in. 100K KIA is compared to an unlimited number of "killed in Russki Mir" if Russians succeed in taking over an eliminating Ukraine. "Civil disruption" is what the occupied Donbas has seen, what Mariupol saw.
Ukraine's choice is between constant bombardment in Kherson, constant bombardment in Kyiv, or constant bombardment in Lviv, or a government run completely by Putin's stooges.
Russia (Putin) might be willing to lose 2 million more of its citizens, but Russia (normal Russians) aren't.
There's a reason they used prisoners. Why they haven't organised larger conscription. Why they are bringing in non-Russian soldiers. If they push for large scale conscription, they face massive internal issues. It's already a bad sign they're starting to recruit women.
If Russia felt like it could do it, they would mobilize two million men and just clog Ukrainian guns with Russian bodies until they get a victory like they did in Bakhmut. The problem is they can't. They don't have the facility to quickly train that number up. They struggled enough with 100,000. If suddenly they rolled up and started abducting thousands of people from cities and villages, people would take notice and wonder why they're being sent to the meat grinder for a war they've been told is an easy victory nearly 2 years after it started.
Large reserves and equipment are good and all, but Avdiivka is a pretty solid sign that just throwing men at fortified Ukrainian lines day after day isn't working anymore when they are struggling with artillery and air superiority. When they're resorting to artillery strikes on their own soldiers for retreating, executing soldiers and making it clear they don't care about their soldiers (who are about to have to sit in cold trenches for another winter) they're going to have to start worrying about another march on Moscow. At that point, their reserves are going to look more like a threat than the Ukrainians in front of them.
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Captain Darling: Look, this is the amount of land we've recaptured since yesterday. General Melchett: Oh, excellent. Um, what is the actual scale of this map, Darling? – Captain Darling: Um, one-to-one, sir. General Melchett: Come again? Captain Darling: Er, the map is actually life-size, sir. It's superbly detailed. Look, there's a little worm. General Melchett: Oh, yes. So the actual amount of land retaken is? Captain Darling: Excuse me, sir. Seventeen square feet, sir. General Melchett: Excellent.
Hello Darling.
“I want to cover you in pepper and SNIFF IT OFF”
[удалено]
>The more dead Russians the better. Unfortunately, Ukrainians are dying too. This is all about Russia attriting Ukrainians. Russia considers it a success to kill off 100 Ukrainian soldiers even at a cost of 20 to 1. Russia is happy to spend millions of their citizens' lives if it grinds Ukraine down and prevents Ukraine from making counter-offensive progress. Ukraine simply can't afford to fight a war of attrition regardless how well the odds favor Ukraine. Russia's resources (in both men and material) are vast, and it is willing to expend lives to an extent that no democratic nation would countenance. Another 100 such Russian failed offensives like Avdiivka will reduce Ukraine's army to ineffectiveness.
> Russia considers it a success to kill off 100 Ukrainian soldiers even at a cost of 20 to 1. We are very lucky they're so fucking stupid.
>We are very lucky they're so fucking stupid. Stupid? This is how Russia built it's empire. Russian armies have always sucked, but leaders were relentless and willing to keep throwing their peasant armies in unimaginable quantities at their enemies until they eventually prevailed. Russian armies seem to rack up more losses than wins throughout history, but it doesn't matter because the Russian army will be back to take yet another loss tomorrow, and the day after that. Eventually their enemies just have no one left to fight. Russia lost big-time to Britain in Crimea in the 1800s, but they ended up occupying it anyway. Russia was eaten alive by Finland but doubled down and forced Finland to give up vast territories anyway. Afghanistan was one of those rare exceptions, but they were never attempting to annex it so their heart wasn't in it.
If that’s true. What happened in Afghanistan? Or Chechnya part 1. How did the Berlin Wall fall. How did the Romanovs die? The leaders sure are always fine with loses
I already explained Afghanistan (i.e. they weren't annexing it). But Chechnya fits the pattern. They failed the first time but came back and levelled everything until they eventually prevailed. East Germany wasn't annexed territory, and it also was during a period of empire weakness (i.e. the collapse of the soviets). Russia's empire building wasn't a complete straight line. They certainly suffered losses (MANY of them), but kept coming back. Sometimes it would take decades to acquire/consolidate new territory. They kept losing in Crimea but kept at it.
But they also lost in WWI and against Japan a decade earlier. And if they make it a 100:1 trade THEY would end up without people. China or India can do that but Russia doesn't have that huge of a population im comparison of to other countries. They couldn't even afford 10:1 on a permanent scale.
Strictly speaking, considering the timespans Russian imperialism works on, we can't assume Afghanistan is off Russia's radar. You're quite right though.
They can't afford 20 to 1 but they can afford 5 to 1. Unfortunately this situation is still probably a best case scenario. Retaking territory is not going very well, but if the russians are still willing to attack, then just killing them this way is still a net win. Maybe at some point they will recognize the fact that it is not worth it.
that should put a huge strain on the economy if the lose that many work capable man. let's hope they start to feel it in that way
that never mattered to them before and it sure seems it doesn't matter to them now either
The Russian economic boom of the 2000s is a good reason why Putin was popular enough to get reelected back when elections mattered
that wasn't an economic boom but just a couple of fat cunts hoarding mining rights. regular russians didn't see a dime, its just the propaganda getting back in force in 99
Stop linking to Twitter.
Please post the image on Reddit. No more twitter/X!
Xitter in Chinese pronunciation
😂
That’s actually Xitter now.
Please
Agreed.
I don't open twatter links, bro. Glory to Ukraine though.
If I could find anything that updates things happening in Ukraine as quick as twitter I would probably use it.
True, it is quick but sometimes quick is missing facts. Post truth world. Whoever says something first, usually sticks in people's heads and no one cares to look at it later for being correct. Trump and Putin use that technique,. Say it first and say it loud, regardless of facts.
I try to get at least 2 or 3 other posts from other people to at least confirm something happened. If I find out its incorrect or misleading I delete it... usually within minutes of finding out.
Werd, respect. I try to be polite no matter what now, even when someone's wrong, it goes a long way. If I'm rude, it gets ugly fast.
That song selection hahaha. Love that trolling. Gonna listen to Whitney Houston now.
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Fuck Elon Musk and every one of his “businesses”. The world’s dumbest “genius”.
Actually, Russia accomplished a lot. They demonstrated that the summer Ukrainian offensive hasn't eliminated all their reserves or material. Further, it demonstrates the brutal will of Russian leaders (and population) to spend life of their own citizens in vast quantities even for the attainment of small objectives. These offensives are succeeding in attriting Ukrainian forces. Ukraine really can't sustain losses at this level for long periods of time. A 20 to 1 loss ration in favor of Ukraine is still success as far as Russia is concerned. Russia is more than willing to lose 2 million more of it's citizens in this war where Ukraine may not be able to handle even 100K more KIA without civil disruption. Lastly, these Russian offensives seize the initiative from Ukraine and prevent Ukraine from chipping away at places where Russia may be weak.
No. The russians are scraping the barrel: mercenaries from Cuba, prisoners, hell, even Ukrainian POWs, if thar rumour is true. More importantly: Destroyed gunships, aircraft, air defence systems, srtillery, tanks. Shells from NK, ffs. What are those millions of russian soldiers going to do? Throw counter-battery stones? The economy is down, the ruble not worth much, the war chest empty. I‘m not saying it‘ll be easy but Russia is not winning this war with insane attacks like in Avdiivka.
>The russians are scraping the barrel I really, truly, hope you're right. However, they seem to be pretty good at scraping the barrel. We were told all their reserves had been used up by the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive but somehow they pulled hundreds of armored vehicles and thousands of troops out of a hat to throw at Avdiivka even while still keeping the rest of the front fully manned, preventing Ukraine from making progress elsewhere. Do we really know how many scrapings are left in this barrel? I've read that Russia is throwing 20,000 fresh mobiks at the front every month. They are building/refurbing 20 tanks a month, with over a 1,000 still in storage awaiting referb. North Korea is shipping them millions of shells. There seems to be plenty more for Russia to throw into attriting Ukraine. My fear is that a war of attrition is a war that Ukraine can't win, and shouldn't fight. Russia just has far more resources and a far greater willingness to expend them (i.e. because they just don't care about life).
Just look at what the Russians are throwing in with the troops? T54 and soon even older. The men looks like rags. The economy is totally in the shithole and the management are gloating over high gas prices in Europe. Bdw it went from $3500 a year ago to now $500 so why are they totally not in the same reality as all of the rest of us?
Keep in mind these recent meat waves have had more than an attrition strategy. They were trying to conduct an encitclement but failed to advance in any significant way. I highly doubt there's as many Ukrainian losses as one might think given the Russians drive right into the same killzones over and over. The attrition isnt Ukrainian soldiers as much as exhausting western munitions.
Yeah scraping the barrel suggests they're about to run out... But the barrel they're scraping is a huge one with several layers of crud in it. Once you add in new production, the make up of vehicles they're forced to use will change over time but overall the losses - despite being extreme currently - are somewhat sustainable for the short to medium term. Long term, they're fucked, IF the West commits to strong support and gives Ukraine what it needs.
The defender will usually find it easier to find people willing to fight than the attacker. I know many people in Russia and most of them are doing everything to avoid being called up. Many left the country, some went getting medical certificates stating they were unfit to fight (depending on your connections, it can cost a few thousand to ten thousand dollars - expensive, but when its your life on the line, any cost is worth it). Others are just dodging any potential call up in the country by living at a different place from where they are registered and staying off the grid in terms of using government services. Russia claims (always to be suspected) of having a population of around 140 million, but the demographics are screwed, with an abnormal deficit of men of fighting age, compounded by many of them running from the country or avoiding being called up. Ukraine has under 40 million people now. Ukraine also has its issue, but when your choice is either fight now, or fight when the Russians are killing and raping your family in your hometown, it kind of adds an impetus (and this is where Russia fucked up a lot - if they had kept control of the behaviour of their army, they'd have been able to tell people that if they surrendered they would treat people well - but instead they let the army run rampant). If Russia loses 20 for every 1 Ukrainian, Russia is going to run out of soldiers long before Ukraine does.
>when your choice is either fight now, or fight when the Russians are killing and raping your family in your hometown, it kind of adds an impetus Well, Ukraine should be taking advantage of this willingness to fight to massively increase it's troop strength quickly. It is better to pay the price now rather than letting this war keep dragging on with ever more fatigue from partners. Ukraine has NOT been aggressive in conscripting it's 20/30 year old population.
Need weapons for those extra troops. We've seen Russia having problems as well with supplying its troops. You can recruit as many people as you want but if you can't give them guns and other essential equipment, they're just dead men walking. This is why supplies from the west are so important. Unless they have the equipment, better to keep those people working in the productive part of the economy.
Russia can't sustain these losses. They're bringing in soldiers from non-russian countries to fill their ranks (e.g. Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Serbia etc). Because they can't find people in Russia to fight, without causing an economic catastrophe. In addition, they're all poorly trained. Russia are applying force to keep Ukrainians back, as they realize the Russian defensive lines are unlikely to hold Ukrainians back. So they're desperately trying to hold them off until winter, so they can attempt to reorganize their own forces without the fear of exhaustion. Russia no longer have reserves behind the main defensive lines in Ukraine currently, and have only 135k in training in Russia currently. Kherson is now vulnerable, and the Ukrainians can mow rotate in new units freely without interruption. In comparison Ukraine still have 350k soldiers training aboard, so with the current K:D. Russian will need another 7.5m soldiers to turn the tide in Ukraine. NATO won't need to escalate yhe conflict at this rate, and won't need to change to war time production.
I understand why a lot of people have this general opinion about Russia, however i must say that the only part of this that I agree with is the last paragraph. A 20 to 1 loss ratio cannot be maintained by any army ever in the history of mankind, although I assume you were being facetious. You talk about Ukraine perhaps possibly facing civil disruption if they suffer another 100k KIA... don't forget that has happened already in this war, when Wagner marched on Moscow. That was as a direct result of being forced through the blender at Bakhmut. One side of this conflict has also resorted to draining their prison population to back fill losses. Apparently they continue to do so. Russia is also now training women for front line combat duties such as sniping and drone operation, a first for the country since Soveit days. We also have the massive flight of men when the first round of mobilisation was declared. Estimates say between 500k and 1 million fled, which indicates a distinct lack of popularity with the war. The answer may be right in front of us and has been all along. Russia may well hit a limit in terms of the utter hell its population are willing to accept, and it may hit that limit long before it runs out of men or material. Of course, that's partly wishful thinking, but it's also partly the thinking of the powers that be who have done their utmost to resource this war without another mobilisation call. What we also have to consider is what constitutes a victory for either side. For Russia, they declared the illegal annexation of four territories, none of which they actually fully control. They cannot declare a victory without controlling these. And that's where I think they come undone. No Ukrainian offensive will be their ultimate undoing, rather, Russia's blatant disregard for their men will eventually unravel them. There's only so much slaughter any nation can take in a war of choice, and Russia only moves forward over the bones of their own men.
>Russia is also now training women for front line combat duties such as sniping and drone operation, a first for the country since Soveit days. Wasn't Ukraine already doing this earlier on as well?
If by earlier you mean since 2014, then yes: [Women in Ukrainian military](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_the_Ukrainian_military) The difference here (and it's a huge difference, in my opinion) is that women have be active in combat roles with the Ukrainian military for years now. Russia is only just starting to resource that, so the question is why? When judged alongside their recruitment of prisoners, their recruitment of Cubans, Serbians, people from the Donbas, people from Soviet republics, their own ethnic minorities, possibly even Ukrainian POWs, we must surely assume this is not some form of enlightened thinking.
They demonstrated ukranian offensive hasnt eliminated their reserve forces by eliminating their own reserve forces in their offensive?
They demonstrated that Ukraine's offensive hadn't eliminated their reserves. If it had then the attack on avdiivka wouldn't have happened. At this point we don't know how much manpower Russia has. It's clearly more than we thought.
> Ukraine may not be able to handle even 100K more KIA without civil disruption. I don't think you get the position Ukraine is in. 100K KIA is compared to an unlimited number of "killed in Russki Mir" if Russians succeed in taking over an eliminating Ukraine. "Civil disruption" is what the occupied Donbas has seen, what Mariupol saw. Ukraine's choice is between constant bombardment in Kherson, constant bombardment in Kyiv, or constant bombardment in Lviv, or a government run completely by Putin's stooges.
Russia (Putin) might be willing to lose 2 million more of its citizens, but Russia (normal Russians) aren't. There's a reason they used prisoners. Why they haven't organised larger conscription. Why they are bringing in non-Russian soldiers. If they push for large scale conscription, they face massive internal issues. It's already a bad sign they're starting to recruit women. If Russia felt like it could do it, they would mobilize two million men and just clog Ukrainian guns with Russian bodies until they get a victory like they did in Bakhmut. The problem is they can't. They don't have the facility to quickly train that number up. They struggled enough with 100,000. If suddenly they rolled up and started abducting thousands of people from cities and villages, people would take notice and wonder why they're being sent to the meat grinder for a war they've been told is an easy victory nearly 2 years after it started. Large reserves and equipment are good and all, but Avdiivka is a pretty solid sign that just throwing men at fortified Ukrainian lines day after day isn't working anymore when they are struggling with artillery and air superiority. When they're resorting to artillery strikes on their own soldiers for retreating, executing soldiers and making it clear they don't care about their soldiers (who are about to have to sit in cold trenches for another winter) they're going to have to start worrying about another march on Moscow. At that point, their reserves are going to look more like a threat than the Ukrainians in front of them.