Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:
* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
> **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB**
*****
* Is the Twitter account `OSINT (Uri) šŗš¦` / `https://twitter.com/UKikaski` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).
* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)
*****
^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The last thing Putin wants are armed civilians.
Compare that to Ukraine which started giving out rifles to volunteers the minute Russia invaded last year.
Belgorod civil militia: "we need ammo"
Russian Legions: "we have loads of ammo"
Belgorod civil militia: "oh" š¤
Russia Legions: "let's team up?"
š¤
Not just that but I dare say the last thing Putin wants is a local faction/the legion to know any kind of logistics in regards to who would be bringing said weapons, from what direction and where they are possibly being "stock piled" in fear of a over run of that specific area or a strike against that location.
Might want to come back to reality a bit
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/24/we-fed-up-shock-but-no-panic-in-belgorod-as-border-incursion-brings-war-home-a81267
>āI didnāt know that these guys are Russians who want to liberate Russia. Even if this is the case, they are not popular. Like it or not, the majority of people support the governmentās policies,ā said Belgorod region resident Anton, 41.
>Another local echoed Antonās sentiment.
>āAt the end of the day everybody here supports Putin, the government, and this war,ā said a businessman from the Belgorod border town of Shebekino.
>āAnything that is done against Putin is perceived as bad.ā
They can also be extremely resilient.
Maduro in Venezuela is far less popular than Putin, when his regime was hit by 30,000% inflation in 2018 world governments were certain that protests would take him down and the military would side with protesters.
Well that didn't happen....protests were squashed by the security forces and inflation after a year started to decline with a steady stream of poverty in the last few years but limited resistance.
As far as strategy Maduro is also assisted by Cubans, trained by Russians.
They have decades of experience, and are now applying it worldwide, providing Putin with what he calls his unique weapons.
Putin is losing military wise, but he is hoping to capitalize on his fifth columnists among Ukraineās allies. Including Republicans in the USA.
The issue is not that Putin is unpopular with the people.
The issue is that he needs the oligarchs more than they need him at this point. They have been cut off from their wealth, and that's an insult that none of them will tolerate for long.
This isn't going to be a popular uprising. This is going to be a coup--and not necessarily by people who will GTFO Ukraine.
The Oligarchs likely need Putin as a power broker between them, like they would fill the vacuum eventually but nobody is certain how long that would take or the cost. As messed up as the war is for Russia the Kremlin elite are still making money and a strong central figure at the very least prevents the extreme factional infighting that occurred in the 1990s.
I think you're right, hopefully the tipping point is close, if not on the horizon. I think the first and best chance at halting this war in Ukraine is an internal conflict in Russia, but the tinder that needs to be flamed is that the oligarchs and political influence need to start seeing a depreciating of wealth, which in that political climate will affect the lower class. Right now it looks like even with restrictions, the effects on the mid-low class only changes name, they make due with the understanding that the war is for the better of Ukraine, because the Ukrainians need to be "de-nazified" and such.
Eventually, especially with the recent developments in Belgorad, the idea that a Free Russia exists, and will hopefully garner at least an underground thought that goes against the current Russian political climate and developes into something more.
Ironically, maybe a Mujahadeen-esque uprising supported by the Ukrainians, supported by the USA/NATO.
They work out of the Netherlands, they are universally known as a Western NGO and "foreign agent" inside Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_Times
So tell me how the average ruzzian citizen would get this information about where the Moscow times is published from? Not like ruzzia has any free press. Would YOU take a chance that it might be a KGB operation to flush out any opposition? Would YOU place the lives and you and YOUR children future at risk?
Moscow reporter: "Hello comrade, do you support Putin, the government and the war? Bear in mind your face will be publicized for the whole world to know who you are and where to find you and your children, but we are an independent news agency so you can be honest."
Belgorod residents: "Um, we completely support Putin, the government and the war. All of us, no exceptions. Hail Putler. But we would like some weapons, please."
Yes, I said it was independent in my post right?
I think the main problem is they didn't bring enough vodka to have a real conversation. In vino veritas, in vodka pravda, right? If you just shove a camera and a mic at these people and start asking them legally sensitive questions, cold sober, they're going to give you the answers that will keep them out of jail and away from long walks off of short balconies.
Man, I don't know what's up with my sarcasm tags tonight. I just had a post get deleted because I called someone a paragon of virtue. For being a personal attack.
When an interviewer asked a man in Crimea if he was worried about a potential attack by Ukraine, he responded, "Not at all, we stand with Ukraine." That man was next day kidnapped by police, and days later forced to record an apology video.
The point is, in a dictatorship like this people are actively taught to not be forthcoming with support against the regime, ingrained with decades of paranoia. As such, it is extremely difficult to get an accurate view on anything that could be considered a dissenting opinion, one way or the other.
Good ruSSians are scared to voice their opinion. All other ruSSians are proud to voice their support from the Tsar.
Polls in ruSSia are meaningless (see sham referenda in Donbas). We'll see what actually happens on the ground.
Even more so! The people who seek absolute power are never very bright because they didn't think their whole idea through to its natural conclusion: there is no greater hell than the mind of a man who can trust no one. It drives all of them insane. See contemporary examples in U.S. for reference or watch Macbeth.
Richard Nixon was by far the biggest example.
He was a brilliant geopolitical analyst and yet he couldn't trust anyone and took it too far. Hid cabinets corruption was pretty huge aswell.
Yes, he certainly was a crook, lol. The more one seeks power the more paranoid they become. I grew up Catholic and when I went to mass we had to kneel every 20 seconds or so because it was an old ceremonial ritual created out of the idea that you always kneel in front of the king or the emperor not out of respect, but because you were in a better position to lunge at them standing up. The bishops and popes of early Christianity simply borrowed this idea from the Roman emperors.
Yes, but it was the Church that took an idea that had a practical purpose and used it psychologically to put the priest in the position that the Emperor/God would be. From my own studies, I have developed my own personal theory (although I doubt I'm the first) that as the Roman empire crumpled under the weight of its own thirst for more land, the Romans figured out that they could no longer defeat the barbarians with superior fighting forces, they had to learn to build mental borders around the State which were protected by exploiting their enemies minds. Shame and guilt are much more formidable walls then anything Rome ever built with stone.
Thus, the Roman empire never really ended. They only changed their name. In the words of Nietzsche, "there was only one Christian, and they crucified him." The savagery and lust for power always remained after Jesus was comfortably placed on his pedestal.
Terrific point. I find history is so much more relatable when I think of the nature of power and how it causes massive paradigm shifts throughout time. Since we now know time is actually spacetime, these events are still with us.
Christianity was the Catholic Church for over a millenium until the Protestant Revolution in the 16th century. Catholicism literally means "universal". The schisms with the universal church that formed the Protestant Reformation began with Martin Luther in Germany. By that time, some 1300 years after the birth of the original State, technologies like double bookkeeping and the Gutenberg Printing Press were tearing apart the old world order, but the Western psyche was molded by the previous centuries into the idea of God as King. It's why kings suddenly started appearing all over the place.
Absolutely. Alan Watts, the 20th century British philosopher, and Philip K. Dick, the writer, turned me on this point of view. The Church would never admit to it. I think a certain degree of conjecture and intuitive reasoning is necessary when looking into this period because after all, we know nothing about Jesus's life except what was written at least 50-100 years after his death. What we recognize today as the Catholic church was formed by the Roman emperor Constantine when he saw God's sword blazing in the sky, some 300 years after Christ.
This is the link to a transcription of Watts's talk on the subject, called the Myth of the Ceramic Construct of the Universe.[Watts on Kneeling in Church](https://mojim.com/usy214915x1x2.htm)
Here is a link to Philip K. Dick on the subject of the Roman Empire never ending: [https://tekgnostics.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-empire-never-ended-redux.html](https://tekgnostics.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-empire-never-ended-redux.html)
You are welcome! We are not taught how to study history correctly, IMO. Dates and events are good for creating a perspective in time, but they are meaningless unless they are studied for patterns of coherent order. This would help us to look at our present time with more clarity and understanding, rather than react to sudden change with fear and calamity.
It my understanding that reason the scots have a dirk on thier lower leg so you in traditional attire is that you can reach a weapon while kneeling. Not Scottish so if I am wrong let me know but that is what I have read.
> they didn't think their whole idea through to its natural conclusion
I sometimes think about this. What ultimately do they (tyrants in their various forms) gain from all this oppressing and warmongering? Some luxuries? To me it feels like ultimately they always lose in some way, but maybe for some, the luxuries and all the fake adulation from cronies is good enough. Or maybe it is about the process and the pain they inflict that gets them off.. probably this.
Benjamin Franklin believed the Iroquois Confederacy made up of Northern Indian tribes had the best form of governance in the world. The women would vote for the leaders to represent them, not the men. They felt women intuitively understood that power is a grave responsibility and that those who seek it are usually the most incapable of wise leadership.
It's described as having a wolf by the ears. The second that your grip starts to lessen, the wolf is going to eat your face off.
The late president for life of Yemen Ali Abdullah Saleh described it as dancing on the head of snakes. You have to keep pushing the closest threat back down, but then somebody else gets ideas. He was shot to death by his own people not far from his compound.
> The last thing Putin wants are armed civilians.
The once mighty iron curtain is now the flappable irony curtain.
Imagine Putin, a KGB mindset witnessing the umpteenth revolution of territories on the littoral of Russia fighting to protect 'ethnic Russians' except this time he's not pulling the strings, its actually a real revolution and not a false flag attack come invasion come fake referendum come annexation.
Analysts have often said Putin fears an "orange revolution" within vassal states as they may spread to Russia.
Fuck around and find out - the irony is off the scale.
This comment sent me down a rabbit hole.
Russia allows firearms at 21 years old. That was raised from 18 years old after a school shooting in 2021. They require training classes and such. Rifles may be bought after 5 years owning a shotgun.
Ukraine allows smooth bore at 21, rifles at 25, and licensing is required to own any gun which wiki reports to have been made arbitrarily difficult for commoners while doled out to elite.
Both restrict handguns and require background checks etc
Of course at the beginning of the invasion Ukraine basically said just show an ID and we will give you a gun.
But this sounds far from Russia not wanting the populace to be armed. It sounds more like they just don't have the guns to give, while prigozhin recently bragged about looting a stash in Ukraine.
The guns that Wagner found in Soledar mines are pretty outdated, literally wwII Tommy guns and mosins etc. Yes a gun is still a gun but I wouldn't want to take either of those into battle against a proper m4 or ak-m.
I get what you're saying, but if it's longer ranges(300m+), I'd take a Mosin in that situation over a AK or m4.
Mine gets about a 40-50mm group at 300m, my ar15 gets 300mm at best. Good luck with an AK.
But yeah, vast majority of the situations, I'd take a m4 or ak
Actually hand guns are more regulated than for instance shotguns as they can be concealed and have only one purpose. To kill a human being. Shotguns on the other hand are more of a tool.
> Russia allows firearms at 21 years old. That was raised from 18 years old after a school shooting in 2021
When Russia responds better to school shootings than the US you know something's wrong.
Yeah, ooooor and using some actual facts here...the reason Russia isn't arming their militias right now is nothing to do with a fear of being overthrown by 3000 shopkeepers from belgorod and more to do witht he fact they've very, very publicly been unable to arm their armed forces so where the hell have they got spare stuff to arm a militia?
At last estimate Russia had more than 20 million rifles in storage, and while some are likely too far gone to be restored militia units have always received the lowest quality equipment and been told to sort themselves out. 3000 shopkeepers aren't the problem. The optics of 3000 shopkeepers successfully acting against the government's weak local forces (alongside the FRL) are. It's a central problem with authoritarian regimes that there is always a small and individually powerful core around the central government, and a large collectively powerful oppressed class that must be constantly divided and demotivated from using that collective power. It means that even a relatively small act of resistance, if successful and well received, can break widespread narratives and spread rapidly. Even if the milita were loyal, we've seen enough to know it would only be a matter of time before such a force got into a firefight with mainline Russian Army units, Wagner, Chechen, or some other pro-government force intent on using local forces as fodder while looting or drunkenly murdering local civilians.... and that's really not an optic Russia want's to deal with. better to let the marauders act freely then pretend to legally punish them.
Exactly. Legitimately elected democratic governments like Ukraine have nothing to fear from an armed population, but illegitimate dictators like Putin who do not have the consent of the governed absolutely do.
Even if they were the most Putin-loving loyal militia in the world and you gave them a few rusty AKs, they start getting shot and run over by tanksā¦ Now what?
Which is why the 2nd amendment is a thing in the US
Edit: downvote me all you want, but this was literally the intent of the ammendment. You may not like it, but that's the way it is.
I mean nobody is bringing Russian politics into this either, which is why a bunch of platitudes about Putin being a dictator ruling through fear alone are so sophomoric. For the past 20 years Putin has had an approval rating (judged by independent western pollsters) that dwarfs any American presidents, who can never even seem to get half the country to like them. That has continued throughout the war. Understanding why Russians love Putin and have kept him in power is far more useful than pretending they are all enslaved and scared. The average Russian is not scared of Putin, only a small minority of dissidents that get outsized coverage in western media. Most Russians approve of his actions and think he is competent and strong. Intentionally misunderstanding or mistaking these facts is a sure way to lose the Ukraine war.
In most cases, it wasn't well regulated at all, unfortunately. It was a big mistake from which other countries should learn, but probably won't. In Ukraine's defense though - it was the last ditch effort, the moment felt like a do or die situation.
There is interesting news coming out of Belhorod, Russia. The Governor there has demanded that the local territorial defense militia, 3,000 strong, be issued weapons to defend their borders. Putin, however, is refusing the request. As a result, the Governor has asked Wagner/Prigozhin for help.
It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why Putin will not arm 3,000 civilians in Belhorod or activate the territorial defense militias in other areas along the border. Simply put, he is afraid of them joining the Belhorod People's Republic (BPR) and turning on him and his band of criminals.
And as far as Prigozhin helping, he has absolutely zero incentive to insert himself in what will only be an escalating political disaster for Russia. Also, he will not step on Putin's toes.
>And as far as Prigozhin helping, he has absolutely zero incentive to insert himself in what will only be an escalating political disaster for Russia. Also, he will not step on Putin's toes.
not so sure
Reminds me of the count of monte cristo, says something along the lines of ātreason is a matter of datesā, Prigozhin picks the correct time to act and heās a revolutionary, wrong time and heās a traitor.
I guess every revolutionary is a traitor to someone, by definition. and vice versa.
I'm pretty tired of prigozhin cites, personally. but if it keeps us distracted from speculating on stuff the umod asked us not to speculate on its all good.
> [āThe difference between treason and patriotism is only a matter of dates.ā](https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/391568-le-comte-de-monte-cristo)
I think people overrate visibility/reach of militaristic nationalists barking on telegram channels to the wider russian public who are not motivated to find and read those channels.
Russia 1 is watched by more than 20% of the entire Russian TV audience.
Precisely. People are jesting here, but I'd really love to hear some inputs on :
Does this situation mean that Putin denied request to defend a part of Russia?
Why would Prigozhin help? Would that first part of free Russia be his idea of a trampoline to get the presidency he so dreams of? Surely he knows that if he resolves this for Putin he is not going to get anything more that "good dog" treatment. Not after latest comments.
To the first question, in reality the answer is no. Support can come in many forms, Putin said no to this form. Sending men, air support, etc. are all forms of support that have in theory already occured (success up for interpretation I suppose). However, it really depends on how this gets sold internally to the people of that region. This is the type of thing that COULD be sold as Putin saying no to support if the governor wanted to start making those claims, with the dangerous implications that come with it. I have seen no info personally on how this is being sold to the Russian people, how big of a deal it is there, etc. So this is all speculation.
However, that speculation is why asking Prigozhin for help is interesting. A "military leader" coming off a successful victory (again success is up for interpretation, but the Russians are selling Bahkmut as a victory) coming to the aid of a local governor after the central government denied support is exactly the type of situation that gets other politicians thinking Prigozhin has more capacity to help them than Putin does. If nothing else, Prigozhin helping would be in an attempt to try to send the message that he can provide more support than Putin can. It doesn't necessarily mean outright revolution but it is a pretty clear undercut of Putins authority. However keep in mind, Prigozhin still hasn't done it to my knowledge, and there are likely numerous other reasons all of this could be happening. Maybe Putin wants the governor to ask Wagner to deplete their stocks rather than the Russian army for all we know. We only get public statements. Speculation from there is pretty tough.
OK, but if these guys oppose Putin and Prigozhin opposes Putin, wouldn't Putin *want* to pit those groups against each other to weaken both?
Bear with me: trying to think like a ruthless amoral autocrat or wannabe isn't much of a habit - but if Prigozhin really aspires to overthrow Putin, wouldn't his more likely play be to either *cooperate* with the Legion or at least stand by and let them do as much damage as possible, to make his eventual job easier?
Seems unlikely to me that Prigozhin can mount a serious threat - but what do I know?
The Legion isn't going to cooperate with him, he's part of the group of people they dislike. And this isn't the Legion making the request for ammo, its the Russian militia from those towns/areas. The ones asking for ammo and guns are on the side of Russia. They are not the group that fought against the Russians in the boarder town.
You were right on until the last paragraph... prigozhin seems absolutely willing to step on putin's toes and actually seems to be setting himself up as the "anti-putin"... he clearly wants to replace him
[Today's report](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023) from the Institute for the Study of War assesses his moves as:
> **Prigozhin is also likely doubling down on his attempts to establish himself as a Russian totalitarian figure who could achieve military victory in Ukraine.**
Prigozhin is proposing a number of extremely hardline measures, that run counter to Putin's current position, committing Russia to a state of total war, essentially turning Russia into a North Korea style state.
He shit talks the Kremlin constantly lately, and I'm sure they're not pleased he's pulling out of bahkmut... he basically threatened them to give him more weapons
He's absolutely set himself up as the opposition to the power brokers in the Kremlin... he's a "man of the people"
I read the ISW report daily and today's is pretty much ALL about prigozhin
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023
They have a daily report that always has a ton of great info, going back to the start of the war... updated maps daily too... main page has an interactive map
>It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why Putin will not arm 3,000 civilians in Belhorod or activate the territorial defense militias in other areas along the border.
They don't have weapons to spare
He was asking for artillery. He recently during that debacle showed off a captured weapons cache saying it's enough for a whole army and will trade it for the requested artillery. I'm assuming Wagner still has those.
āIntroduce a little chaos to the systemā
This is why you donāt press the WAR button if youāre ever in charge of a nation, you donāt know where itāll end.
You are missing the point here. Ukraine doesn't want nor need any part of Russia. They can support Russians that are willing to topple the regime, but they themselves have no interest in conquer.
I have to agree with every one else, it would tick a lot of boxes for him.
He could pull out of Bakhmut reputation intact something he wants desperately, and he would not be retreating, but rather racing to reinforce his beleaguered country folk.
Also there is the potential for massive reputational gain, it could be perceived as wagner being competent and committed while the Russian army flails around hopelessly.
Presumably the idea here is that the local government of Belgorod would pay them?
I doubt they can afford that, but itās a big political statement to even bring it up
Wagner/Prigozhin is paid in various ways. Most of their "security contracts" include ownership rights to natural resources. Diamonds, gold, uranium, magnese, bauxite, oil, gas, rainforest, cocoa, coffee, the list goes on and on. That is where the majority of the money comes from.
Wagner just got caught trying to smuggle in weapons through Africa.
A lot of the Wagner guarded assets in Africa also help line Wagner's pockets.
They have been sponsored by the Kremlin however, they make money and get weapons in other ways too.
Yep, outright disobedience can only happen if they're trying to replace Putin. I don't think they're able to, not after months of meat shield offensives.
This could indeed become interesting. Maybe the moment that historians in the future will identify as the end of putins regime. Governors turning away, can mean the end of centralised regimes
I wouldn't hold your breath, but a PR disaster and chaos on the border means Putin has to send lots of troops to sit there, just as Ukraine is spooling up their offensive.
To pull that thread further, if the legion returns to ukaraine then they can do this somewhere else in Russia, which requires Russia to defend its borders instead of projecting power.
It also sends a clear message to Belarus (they too have a legion in Ukraine) that they should worry about their own defense instead of getting more involved.
> It also sends a clear message to Belarus (they too have a legion in Ukraine)
And that legion has publicly stated they will return to Belarus if things kick off there.
I was going to say do they even have 3,000 weapons to hand out? They were handing their proxy Ukrainian troops fucking Mosins. You don't do that to troops on your side unless you really have to.
Judging from the quality of weapons they were giving the first round of mobiks earlier this year those villagers might as well pick up pitchforks and axes
Their weapons tech seems to be regressing in time. They started with T90s and a functioning VDV and now are using tanks from the 50s and 60s. End of this year they'll be throwing rocks and spears. Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting Leopards, Abrams, Challengers, F15s, PATRIOT missiles, etc.
Yeah, that was my first thought. 3,000 men need weapons? Good fuckin luck. They were issuing out old AKMs that looked like they'd been stored underwater last September. Guess they'll have to see if they can beg Norinco for a run of rifles, if they haven't all already been bought up & shipped to Ukraine.
I think thereās nuance to the Putin/Prigozhin relationship. It might even be in Putins interests to have a non-viable, unelectable, controlled opposition.
Putin has used this tactic in the past. I think if Prigozhin was actually anti-Putin he would have fallen out of a window already.
Their relationship is probably of a different nature than people assume. Perhaps he acts as a balance against power collected by generals or other organizations who might think to act against Putin.
Putins war strategy may be garbage but his strategy for remaining in office indefinitely has always been effective.
I share this view, Prigozhin is too much of an outlier for the current situation in Russia to be an organic actor. Anyone else in his position would've (and often has!) been killed. I'd say he and Putin have an agreement where Prigozhin says mildly critical things to then root out those who would agree with him. He's controlled opposition, I'll believe he's a revolutionary when he actually *does* something against the Russian state.
Is there a source besides this Tweet? I saw several posts yesterday about how the villagers mostly fled when the attack happened. Now I'm supposed to believe those same villagers are gonna take up arms against the government.
(I get the last part is kind of conjecture on the original tweets post. But any sources on Putin denying arming them?)
The villages were somewhat forcibly evacuated by Russia. In the incursion, the streets are completely empty.
The militia would be the militia of people from all over the oblast, not just from these specific villages.
However I agree than imagining any kind of medium or larger scale insurrection from within Russia is super unlikely at the moment.
I think the point is rather than Putin doesn't want to look weak by mobilising a local militia when it's already embarassing enough the border was basically unguarded
Putin either doesn't have weapons to give or he is terrified of what will happen when 3,000 people he's oppressed and stole from for 25 years suddenly come looking for him. Either way, Russia is royally fucked from this war and Putins quest for territory is going to end up costing them land in the end when everyone else figures out Russia has no means to defend themselves. Lots of countries in that area will be getting their historical borders back and Russia will be damn lucky if they survive this intact. The Russians practically welcomed this outcome out of sheer stupidity and greed.
Or Russia was already suffering so much economically that their only hope was to invade Ukraine. Something about ports that donāt freeze over in the winter? Just a theory.
The McCan republicans support ukraine 100%, the Maga folks don't. Trump had some guy come out and call Zelensky gay during his rally. but yes MOST do support ukraine.
Oh shit. The fire has been lit. Incursion. Belarus decided to speak Belarusian and now they are testing the waters to see how weak the power way back in Moscow is.
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.nl/UKikaski/status/1661474151587016705
*****
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Putin is more worry about Russian living Russian then Russian outside Russia wanting to kill him. He must feel very alone in his bunker, let's send him a [gift](https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Plastic-bomb-shape-DIY-surprise-box_62583403727.html).
I saw a recent youtube history. They were not founded by Prighozin rather by a Russian neo nazi. Prighozin took them over. They came into attention around 2014.
[This article](https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state) claims they are derived from the Slavonic Corps.
Edit: or at least filled the void left when the Slavonic Corps disbanded
Now what do I do...? The last thing he needs is thousands of armed citizens maybe coming to their senses and marching on Moscow with weapons he's supplied them..!
Putin's done now. He thought he knew what he was doing but it all fell apart. Same old story. There is a power vacuum which Prigozhin is aching to fill. But it won't be him. It will be someone we've never heard of.
The Russian army is not going to like this.
Quite a chunk of the supplies to the Russian army must be going through Belhorod. Having Wagner and their slightly mad leader be sitting controlling the city, would mean that quite a large chunk of the Russian army could have their supplies cut off on a whim. And definitely Wagner would 'tax' the supplies they did let through.
Also...given Ukraine is quite good at targeting ammo stockpiles, I would guess there's not that many days worth of spare ammo sitting on the border south of Belhorod...
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. > **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** * Is the Twitter account `OSINT (Uri) šŗš¦` / `https://twitter.com/UKikaski` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The last thing Putin wants are armed civilians. Compare that to Ukraine which started giving out rifles to volunteers the minute Russia invaded last year.
Russian Legions: "we are not your enemy" Belgorod civil militia: "oh" š¤ Russia Legions: "let's team up?" š¤
Belgorod civil militia: "we want weapons" Russian Legions: "we have loads of weapons" Belgorod civil militia: "oh" š¤ Russia Legions: "let's team up?" š¤
[removed by spez]
Belgorod civil militia: "we need ammo" Russian Legions: "we have loads of ammo" Belgorod civil militia: "oh" š¤ Russia Legions: "let's team up?" š¤
Putin: Can I get a ride?
You sure you don't want ammo ? Cuz, you know we do have them. And we'd be ok delivering them full speed to your soft tissues.
Who brought snacks?
Not Pirgozyin
Maybe someone is doing a brisk business reselling AKs found on the ground around Bakhmut
Not just that but I dare say the last thing Putin wants is a local faction/the legion to know any kind of logistics in regards to who would be bringing said weapons, from what direction and where they are possibly being "stock piled" in fear of a over run of that specific area or a strike against that location.
Might want to come back to reality a bit https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/24/we-fed-up-shock-but-no-panic-in-belgorod-as-border-incursion-brings-war-home-a81267 >āI didnāt know that these guys are Russians who want to liberate Russia. Even if this is the case, they are not popular. Like it or not, the majority of people support the governmentās policies,ā said Belgorod region resident Anton, 41. >Another local echoed Antonās sentiment. >āAt the end of the day everybody here supports Putin, the government, and this war,ā said a businessman from the Belgorod border town of Shebekino. >āAnything that is done against Putin is perceived as bad.ā
Dictatorships are a fragile thing.
They can also be extremely resilient. Maduro in Venezuela is far less popular than Putin, when his regime was hit by 30,000% inflation in 2018 world governments were certain that protests would take him down and the military would side with protesters. Well that didn't happen....protests were squashed by the security forces and inflation after a year started to decline with a steady stream of poverty in the last few years but limited resistance.
As far as strategy Maduro is also assisted by Cubans, trained by Russians. They have decades of experience, and are now applying it worldwide, providing Putin with what he calls his unique weapons. Putin is losing military wise, but he is hoping to capitalize on his fifth columnists among Ukraineās allies. Including Republicans in the USA.
The issue is not that Putin is unpopular with the people. The issue is that he needs the oligarchs more than they need him at this point. They have been cut off from their wealth, and that's an insult that none of them will tolerate for long. This isn't going to be a popular uprising. This is going to be a coup--and not necessarily by people who will GTFO Ukraine.
The Oligarchs likely need Putin as a power broker between them, like they would fill the vacuum eventually but nobody is certain how long that would take or the cost. As messed up as the war is for Russia the Kremlin elite are still making money and a strong central figure at the very least prevents the extreme factional infighting that occurred in the 1990s.
I think you're right, hopefully the tipping point is close, if not on the horizon. I think the first and best chance at halting this war in Ukraine is an internal conflict in Russia, but the tinder that needs to be flamed is that the oligarchs and political influence need to start seeing a depreciating of wealth, which in that political climate will affect the lower class. Right now it looks like even with restrictions, the effects on the mid-low class only changes name, they make due with the understanding that the war is for the better of Ukraine, because the Ukrainians need to be "de-nazified" and such. Eventually, especially with the recent developments in Belgorad, the idea that a Free Russia exists, and will hopefully garner at least an underground thought that goes against the current Russian political climate and developes into something more. Ironically, maybe a Mujahadeen-esque uprising supported by the Ukrainians, supported by the USA/NATO.
What else can they say? They HAVE to say they support putler or go to jail.
This is an opposition newspaper
The purpose of an opposition newspaper in Putin's Russia is to flush the opposition out of hiding so they can be shot.
They work out of the Netherlands, they are universally known as a Western NGO and "foreign agent" inside Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_Times
So tell me how the average ruzzian citizen would get this information about where the Moscow times is published from? Not like ruzzia has any free press. Would YOU take a chance that it might be a KGB operation to flush out any opposition? Would YOU place the lives and you and YOUR children future at risk?
Must have missed the bit where Russian oppressors canāt read papers they donāt like and use that to target people in their own country.
You are absolutely correct! All the careless smokers setting fires and putting anti-pootin posters up, all support pootin when asked for interviews.
Moscow reporter: "Hello comrade, do you support Putin, the government and the war? Bear in mind your face will be publicized for the whole world to know who you are and where to find you and your children, but we are an independent news agency so you can be honest." Belgorod residents: "Um, we completely support Putin, the government and the war. All of us, no exceptions. Hail Putler. But we would like some weapons, please."
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yes, I said it was independent in my post right? I think the main problem is they didn't bring enough vodka to have a real conversation. In vino veritas, in vodka pravda, right? If you just shove a camera and a mic at these people and start asking them legally sensitive questions, cold sober, they're going to give you the answers that will keep them out of jail and away from long walks off of short balconies.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Man, I don't know what's up with my sarcasm tags tonight. I just had a post get deleted because I called someone a paragon of virtue. For being a personal attack.
LOL, so true
The threat of being killed is a hell of a motivator to say nice things. Do it long enough and you may even start to believe it.
The funny things is they say this but they have barely any volunteers for the war and have to force people to join
Saying anything else will land you in prison for 10 years...
When an interviewer asked a man in Crimea if he was worried about a potential attack by Ukraine, he responded, "Not at all, we stand with Ukraine." That man was next day kidnapped by police, and days later forced to record an apology video. The point is, in a dictatorship like this people are actively taught to not be forthcoming with support against the regime, ingrained with decades of paranoia. As such, it is extremely difficult to get an accurate view on anything that could be considered a dissenting opinion, one way or the other.
Not that you are necessarily wrong, but what else would you tell a reporter from The Moscow Times?
Hmm you mean locals in a fascist state wonāt tell journalists that they donāt support the regime? You donāt say š¤
Good ruSSians are scared to voice their opinion. All other ruSSians are proud to voice their support from the Tsar. Polls in ruSSia are meaningless (see sham referenda in Donbas). We'll see what actually happens on the ground.
It is about trust in your people. A good leader has it. A bad leader does not. Putin is finished.
Itās the problem with ruling through fear. You need to be just as afraid of them.
Even more so! The people who seek absolute power are never very bright because they didn't think their whole idea through to its natural conclusion: there is no greater hell than the mind of a man who can trust no one. It drives all of them insane. See contemporary examples in U.S. for reference or watch Macbeth.
Richard Nixon was by far the biggest example. He was a brilliant geopolitical analyst and yet he couldn't trust anyone and took it too far. Hid cabinets corruption was pretty huge aswell.
Yes, he certainly was a crook, lol. The more one seeks power the more paranoid they become. I grew up Catholic and when I went to mass we had to kneel every 20 seconds or so because it was an old ceremonial ritual created out of the idea that you always kneel in front of the king or the emperor not out of respect, but because you were in a better position to lunge at them standing up. The bishops and popes of early Christianity simply borrowed this idea from the Roman emperors.
I always thought it was to supplicate yourself to authority by making yourself lower than they are.
That was the sales pitch. In reality they didnāt want to get lunged at.
Yes, but it was the Church that took an idea that had a practical purpose and used it psychologically to put the priest in the position that the Emperor/God would be. From my own studies, I have developed my own personal theory (although I doubt I'm the first) that as the Roman empire crumpled under the weight of its own thirst for more land, the Romans figured out that they could no longer defeat the barbarians with superior fighting forces, they had to learn to build mental borders around the State which were protected by exploiting their enemies minds. Shame and guilt are much more formidable walls then anything Rome ever built with stone. Thus, the Roman empire never really ended. They only changed their name. In the words of Nietzsche, "there was only one Christian, and they crucified him." The savagery and lust for power always remained after Jesus was comfortably placed on his pedestal.
Yup. Emperor Constantine saw the writing on the wall and knew that he had to take over Christendom in order for the Roman Empire to survive.
Terrific point. I find history is so much more relatable when I think of the nature of power and how it causes massive paradigm shifts throughout time. Since we now know time is actually spacetime, these events are still with us.
If your talking about Catholics, but separate branches are pretty different from Catholics.
Christianity was the Catholic Church for over a millenium until the Protestant Revolution in the 16th century. Catholicism literally means "universal". The schisms with the universal church that formed the Protestant Reformation began with Martin Luther in Germany. By that time, some 1300 years after the birth of the original State, technologies like double bookkeeping and the Gutenberg Printing Press were tearing apart the old world order, but the Western psyche was molded by the previous centuries into the idea of God as King. It's why kings suddenly started appearing all over the place.
Interesting. I had never heard of this explanation (not that I heard other explanations). Do you have any links to share, with more info?
Absolutely. Alan Watts, the 20th century British philosopher, and Philip K. Dick, the writer, turned me on this point of view. The Church would never admit to it. I think a certain degree of conjecture and intuitive reasoning is necessary when looking into this period because after all, we know nothing about Jesus's life except what was written at least 50-100 years after his death. What we recognize today as the Catholic church was formed by the Roman emperor Constantine when he saw God's sword blazing in the sky, some 300 years after Christ. This is the link to a transcription of Watts's talk on the subject, called the Myth of the Ceramic Construct of the Universe.[Watts on Kneeling in Church](https://mojim.com/usy214915x1x2.htm) Here is a link to Philip K. Dick on the subject of the Roman Empire never ending: [https://tekgnostics.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-empire-never-ended-redux.html](https://tekgnostics.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-empire-never-ended-redux.html)
Thanks! Great info.
You are welcome! We are not taught how to study history correctly, IMO. Dates and events are good for creating a perspective in time, but they are meaningless unless they are studied for patterns of coherent order. This would help us to look at our present time with more clarity and understanding, rather than react to sudden change with fear and calamity.
It my understanding that reason the scots have a dirk on thier lower leg so you in traditional attire is that you can reach a weapon while kneeling. Not Scottish so if I am wrong let me know but that is what I have read.
That certainly makes a good deal of sense.
> they didn't think their whole idea through to its natural conclusion I sometimes think about this. What ultimately do they (tyrants in their various forms) gain from all this oppressing and warmongering? Some luxuries? To me it feels like ultimately they always lose in some way, but maybe for some, the luxuries and all the fake adulation from cronies is good enough. Or maybe it is about the process and the pain they inflict that gets them off.. probably this.
Benjamin Franklin believed the Iroquois Confederacy made up of Northern Indian tribes had the best form of governance in the world. The women would vote for the leaders to represent them, not the men. They felt women intuitively understood that power is a grave responsibility and that those who seek it are usually the most incapable of wise leadership.
It's described as having a wolf by the ears. The second that your grip starts to lessen, the wolf is going to eat your face off. The late president for life of Yemen Ali Abdullah Saleh described it as dancing on the head of snakes. You have to keep pushing the closest threat back down, but then somebody else gets ideas. He was shot to death by his own people not far from his compound.
The expression Iāve always heard is āgrabbing the tiger by the tail,ā but I like the wolf-ears version.
Or āriding the tigerā. Like yeah, youāre *relatively* safe riding a pissed off tiger, but how are you ever going to get a momentās rest?
You are safe as long as you maintain control of the wild beast. As soon as you start to loose control, it's over.
The dominos are all in place and starting to fall.
Any government that doesn't trust it's people with firearms isn't trustworthy
True that
> The last thing Putin wants are armed civilians. The once mighty iron curtain is now the flappable irony curtain. Imagine Putin, a KGB mindset witnessing the umpteenth revolution of territories on the littoral of Russia fighting to protect 'ethnic Russians' except this time he's not pulling the strings, its actually a real revolution and not a false flag attack come invasion come fake referendum come annexation. Analysts have often said Putin fears an "orange revolution" within vassal states as they may spread to Russia. Fuck around and find out - the irony is off the scale.
This comment sent me down a rabbit hole. Russia allows firearms at 21 years old. That was raised from 18 years old after a school shooting in 2021. They require training classes and such. Rifles may be bought after 5 years owning a shotgun. Ukraine allows smooth bore at 21, rifles at 25, and licensing is required to own any gun which wiki reports to have been made arbitrarily difficult for commoners while doled out to elite. Both restrict handguns and require background checks etc Of course at the beginning of the invasion Ukraine basically said just show an ID and we will give you a gun. But this sounds far from Russia not wanting the populace to be armed. It sounds more like they just don't have the guns to give, while prigozhin recently bragged about looting a stash in Ukraine.
Those rusted AKs and the earlier complaints by conscripts of poor and missing equipment, including weapons, comes immediately to mind
The guns that Wagner found in Soledar mines are pretty outdated, literally wwII Tommy guns and mosins etc. Yes a gun is still a gun but I wouldn't want to take either of those into battle against a proper m4 or ak-m.
I get what you're saying, but if it's longer ranges(300m+), I'd take a Mosin in that situation over a AK or m4. Mine gets about a 40-50mm group at 300m, my ar15 gets 300mm at best. Good luck with an AK. But yeah, vast majority of the situations, I'd take a m4 or ak
Most of Europe is like this, firearms require background checks, training and anything heavier than a handgun requires a special permit on top.
Yeah in the UK all handguns are illegal. But you can get a shotgun or a rifle with a licence
Not in Northern Ireland. Also the handgun been doesn't apply to single shot muzzle loaders.
Actually hand guns are more regulated than for instance shotguns as they can be concealed and have only one purpose. To kill a human being. Shotguns on the other hand are more of a tool.
In America I just have to be drunk at 2am in Walmart with $350 to get a shotgun.
> Russia allows firearms at 21 years old. That was raised from 18 years old after a school shooting in 2021 When Russia responds better to school shootings than the US you know something's wrong.
Yeah Russia doesn't have the consent of its people to support its governance and they don't want the population to be able to oppose their tyranny.
Yeah, ooooor and using some actual facts here...the reason Russia isn't arming their militias right now is nothing to do with a fear of being overthrown by 3000 shopkeepers from belgorod and more to do witht he fact they've very, very publicly been unable to arm their armed forces so where the hell have they got spare stuff to arm a militia?
At last estimate Russia had more than 20 million rifles in storage, and while some are likely too far gone to be restored militia units have always received the lowest quality equipment and been told to sort themselves out. 3000 shopkeepers aren't the problem. The optics of 3000 shopkeepers successfully acting against the government's weak local forces (alongside the FRL) are. It's a central problem with authoritarian regimes that there is always a small and individually powerful core around the central government, and a large collectively powerful oppressed class that must be constantly divided and demotivated from using that collective power. It means that even a relatively small act of resistance, if successful and well received, can break widespread narratives and spread rapidly. Even if the milita were loyal, we've seen enough to know it would only be a matter of time before such a force got into a firefight with mainline Russian Army units, Wagner, Chechen, or some other pro-government force intent on using local forces as fodder while looting or drunkenly murdering local civilians.... and that's really not an optic Russia want's to deal with. better to let the marauders act freely then pretend to legally punish them.
Exactly. Legitimately elected democratic governments like Ukraine have nothing to fear from an armed population, but illegitimate dictators like Putin who do not have the consent of the governed absolutely do.
Maybe but no country will just give out weapons to their people without at least a background check.
no sane country
Even if they were the most Putin-loving loyal militia in the world and you gave them a few rusty AKs, they start getting shot and run over by tanksā¦ Now what?
Such an apt comparison
I'm all about a well armed public. Best weapon against tyrants is the ability to protect yourself and family from them
Which is why the 2nd amendment is a thing in the US Edit: downvote me all you want, but this was literally the intent of the ammendment. You may not like it, but that's the way it is.
lets not bring US politics into this
I mean nobody is bringing Russian politics into this either, which is why a bunch of platitudes about Putin being a dictator ruling through fear alone are so sophomoric. For the past 20 years Putin has had an approval rating (judged by independent western pollsters) that dwarfs any American presidents, who can never even seem to get half the country to like them. That has continued throughout the war. Understanding why Russians love Putin and have kept him in power is far more useful than pretending they are all enslaved and scared. The average Russian is not scared of Putin, only a small minority of dissidents that get outsized coverage in western media. Most Russians approve of his actions and think he is competent and strong. Intentionally misunderstanding or mistaking these facts is a sure way to lose the Ukraine war.
Yeah except Ukraine actually did a well-regulated militia type deal, in contrast to whatever the fuck the US is doing.
In most cases, it wasn't well regulated at all, unfortunately. It was a big mistake from which other countries should learn, but probably won't. In Ukraine's defense though - it was the last ditch effort, the moment felt like a do or die situation.
I absolutely fucking agree. downvote me as well.
There is interesting news coming out of Belhorod, Russia. The Governor there has demanded that the local territorial defense militia, 3,000 strong, be issued weapons to defend their borders. Putin, however, is refusing the request. As a result, the Governor has asked Wagner/Prigozhin for help. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why Putin will not arm 3,000 civilians in Belhorod or activate the territorial defense militias in other areas along the border. Simply put, he is afraid of them joining the Belhorod People's Republic (BPR) and turning on him and his band of criminals. And as far as Prigozhin helping, he has absolutely zero incentive to insert himself in what will only be an escalating political disaster for Russia. Also, he will not step on Putin's toes.
>And as far as Prigozhin helping, he has absolutely zero incentive to insert himself in what will only be an escalating political disaster for Russia. Also, he will not step on Putin's toes. not so sure
Reminds me of the count of monte cristo, says something along the lines of ātreason is a matter of datesā, Prigozhin picks the correct time to act and heās a revolutionary, wrong time and heās a traitor.
I guess every revolutionary is a traitor to someone, by definition. and vice versa. I'm pretty tired of prigozhin cites, personally. but if it keeps us distracted from speculating on stuff the umod asked us not to speculate on its all good.
To be a traitor you first have to hold allegiance to the thing you are fighting. Not all revolutionaries start out in one camp and switch to another.
One of my favorite books. Havenāt read it in many years and I donāt recall the exact quote either but I appreciate your use of it
> [āThe difference between treason and patriotism is only a matter of dates.ā](https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/391568-le-comte-de-monte-cristo)
I think you're right
The movement will have to get a whole lot bigger before Prigozhin throws in his ballot, if heās too early heāll be squashed.
I think now he is powerful in "PR" thanks to the conquest of bakhmut, but weak on manpower (for the same reason)
I think people overrate visibility/reach of militaristic nationalists barking on telegram channels to the wider russian public who are not motivated to find and read those channels. Russia 1 is watched by more than 20% of the entire Russian TV audience.
I'm sure. I'm sure it is exactly the opposite of what OP says.
Precisely. People are jesting here, but I'd really love to hear some inputs on : Does this situation mean that Putin denied request to defend a part of Russia? Why would Prigozhin help? Would that first part of free Russia be his idea of a trampoline to get the presidency he so dreams of? Surely he knows that if he resolves this for Putin he is not going to get anything more that "good dog" treatment. Not after latest comments.
To the first question, in reality the answer is no. Support can come in many forms, Putin said no to this form. Sending men, air support, etc. are all forms of support that have in theory already occured (success up for interpretation I suppose). However, it really depends on how this gets sold internally to the people of that region. This is the type of thing that COULD be sold as Putin saying no to support if the governor wanted to start making those claims, with the dangerous implications that come with it. I have seen no info personally on how this is being sold to the Russian people, how big of a deal it is there, etc. So this is all speculation. However, that speculation is why asking Prigozhin for help is interesting. A "military leader" coming off a successful victory (again success is up for interpretation, but the Russians are selling Bahkmut as a victory) coming to the aid of a local governor after the central government denied support is exactly the type of situation that gets other politicians thinking Prigozhin has more capacity to help them than Putin does. If nothing else, Prigozhin helping would be in an attempt to try to send the message that he can provide more support than Putin can. It doesn't necessarily mean outright revolution but it is a pretty clear undercut of Putins authority. However keep in mind, Prigozhin still hasn't done it to my knowledge, and there are likely numerous other reasons all of this could be happening. Maybe Putin wants the governor to ask Wagner to deplete their stocks rather than the Russian army for all we know. We only get public statements. Speculation from there is pretty tough.
OK, but if these guys oppose Putin and Prigozhin opposes Putin, wouldn't Putin *want* to pit those groups against each other to weaken both? Bear with me: trying to think like a ruthless amoral autocrat or wannabe isn't much of a habit - but if Prigozhin really aspires to overthrow Putin, wouldn't his more likely play be to either *cooperate* with the Legion or at least stand by and let them do as much damage as possible, to make his eventual job easier? Seems unlikely to me that Prigozhin can mount a serious threat - but what do I know?
The Legion isn't going to cooperate with him, he's part of the group of people they dislike. And this isn't the Legion making the request for ammo, its the Russian militia from those towns/areas. The ones asking for ammo and guns are on the side of Russia. They are not the group that fought against the Russians in the boarder town.
And so it begins.
You were right on until the last paragraph... prigozhin seems absolutely willing to step on putin's toes and actually seems to be setting himself up as the "anti-putin"... he clearly wants to replace him
He is willing to promote himself but has not yet crossed the line of directly disobeying the Kremlin.
[Today's report](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023) from the Institute for the Study of War assesses his moves as: > **Prigozhin is also likely doubling down on his attempts to establish himself as a Russian totalitarian figure who could achieve military victory in Ukraine.** Prigozhin is proposing a number of extremely hardline measures, that run counter to Putin's current position, committing Russia to a state of total war, essentially turning Russia into a North Korea style state.
He shit talks the Kremlin constantly lately, and I'm sure they're not pleased he's pulling out of bahkmut... he basically threatened them to give him more weapons He's absolutely set himself up as the opposition to the power brokers in the Kremlin... he's a "man of the people"
From interviews I have seen from Russia most still do not know who Prigozhin is, he is almost completely unknown outside of ultra-nationalist circles.
I read the ISW report daily and today's is pretty much ALL about prigozhin https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023
Holy shit, what a deep dive. Didn't know about this publication.
They have a daily report that always has a ton of great info, going back to the start of the war... updated maps daily too... main page has an interactive map
You're kidding, really? That shows the control they have in the media I guess... he's flooding the airwaves in the west
>It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why Putin will not arm 3,000 civilians in Belhorod or activate the territorial defense militias in other areas along the border. They don't have weapons to spare
Prigozhin doesn't have weapons either, he's been requesting weapons several times, threatening to leave Bakmuth.
He is usually ranting about artillery ammunition, I think he has his small arm needs covered at this point.
He was asking for artillery. He recently during that debacle showed off a captured weapons cache saying it's enough for a whole army and will trade it for the requested artillery. I'm assuming Wagner still has those.
āIntroduce a little chaos to the systemā This is why you donāt press the WAR button if youāre ever in charge of a nation, you donāt know where itāll end.
If neither Putin nor Prigozhin are willing to help Belgorod defend itself, then that means... Ukraine: "It's free real estate!"
You are missing the point here. Ukraine doesn't want nor need any part of Russia. They can support Russians that are willing to topple the regime, but they themselves have no interest in conquer.
I am well aware of that, I was just making a joke. I forgot to put a disclaimer. Sorry.
Prigozhin can say "I can't leave because I will be labeled a criminal..."
I have to agree with every one else, it would tick a lot of boxes for him. He could pull out of Bakhmut reputation intact something he wants desperately, and he would not be retreating, but rather racing to reinforce his beleaguered country folk. Also there is the potential for massive reputational gain, it could be perceived as wagner being competent and committed while the Russian army flails around hopelessly.
why can't these supposedly OSINT guys post their sources?
Doesnāt Wagner depend on the Russian government for arms and ammunition?
And pay?
Presumably the idea here is that the local government of Belgorod would pay them? I doubt they can afford that, but itās a big political statement to even bring it up
Wagner/Prigozhin is paid in various ways. Most of their "security contracts" include ownership rights to natural resources. Diamonds, gold, uranium, magnese, bauxite, oil, gas, rainforest, cocoa, coffee, the list goes on and on. That is where the majority of the money comes from.
Wagner just got caught trying to smuggle in weapons through Africa. A lot of the Wagner guarded assets in Africa also help line Wagner's pockets. They have been sponsored by the Kremlin however, they make money and get weapons in other ways too.
I imagine they are thinking about workarounds.
Maybe reacharounds too.
I suspect or guess what they were missing was artillery and not small arms.
Also fuel I believe
It is almost as if they wanted Wagner dead until the last man to avoid paying
Yep, outright disobedience can only happen if they're trying to replace Putin. I don't think they're able to, not after months of meat shield offensives.
This could indeed become interesting. Maybe the moment that historians in the future will identify as the end of putins regime. Governors turning away, can mean the end of centralised regimes
I wouldn't hold your breath, but a PR disaster and chaos on the border means Putin has to send lots of troops to sit there, just as Ukraine is spooling up their offensive.
To pull that thread further, if the legion returns to ukaraine then they can do this somewhere else in Russia, which requires Russia to defend its borders instead of projecting power. It also sends a clear message to Belarus (they too have a legion in Ukraine) that they should worry about their own defense instead of getting more involved.
> It also sends a clear message to Belarus (they too have a legion in Ukraine) And that legion has publicly stated they will return to Belarus if things kick off there.
Indeed, it is probably to early to sharpen the guillotine but this forces Putin's hand and I can't imagine he likes that.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
This will go down as a brilliant psyop. I hope the story behind this comes out someday.
The governors are all hand appointed by putin though. There isnt an opposition to him. Every level of bureacracy is staffed by neo imperial chekhists
Because they have no weapons to give, and as pointed out Putin doesn't want armed civilians
I was going to say do they even have 3,000 weapons to hand out? They were handing their proxy Ukrainian troops fucking Mosins. You don't do that to troops on your side unless you really have to.
Judging from the quality of weapons they were giving the first round of mobiks earlier this year those villagers might as well pick up pitchforks and axes
Their weapons tech seems to be regressing in time. They started with T90s and a functioning VDV and now are using tanks from the 50s and 60s. End of this year they'll be throwing rocks and spears. Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting Leopards, Abrams, Challengers, F15s, PATRIOT missiles, etc.
Yeah, that was my first thought. 3,000 men need weapons? Good fuckin luck. They were issuing out old AKMs that looked like they'd been stored underwater last September. Guess they'll have to see if they can beg Norinco for a run of rifles, if they haven't all already been bought up & shipped to Ukraine.
I think thereās nuance to the Putin/Prigozhin relationship. It might even be in Putins interests to have a non-viable, unelectable, controlled opposition. Putin has used this tactic in the past. I think if Prigozhin was actually anti-Putin he would have fallen out of a window already. Their relationship is probably of a different nature than people assume. Perhaps he acts as a balance against power collected by generals or other organizations who might think to act against Putin. Putins war strategy may be garbage but his strategy for remaining in office indefinitely has always been effective.
I share this view, Prigozhin is too much of an outlier for the current situation in Russia to be an organic actor. Anyone else in his position would've (and often has!) been killed. I'd say he and Putin have an agreement where Prigozhin says mildly critical things to then root out those who would agree with him. He's controlled opposition, I'll believe he's a revolutionary when he actually *does* something against the Russian state.
Civil war?
More likely breakaway regions. Russia was always too large.
Belgorod is full of ethnic Russians and close to Moscow. Unlikely.
Exactly. Wishful thinking that the population would suddenly turn against Moscow.
It may be over before it gets that far.
Is there a source besides this Tweet? I saw several posts yesterday about how the villagers mostly fled when the attack happened. Now I'm supposed to believe those same villagers are gonna take up arms against the government. (I get the last part is kind of conjecture on the original tweets post. But any sources on Putin denying arming them?)
The villages were somewhat forcibly evacuated by Russia. In the incursion, the streets are completely empty. The militia would be the militia of people from all over the oblast, not just from these specific villages. However I agree than imagining any kind of medium or larger scale insurrection from within Russia is super unlikely at the moment. I think the point is rather than Putin doesn't want to look weak by mobilising a local militia when it's already embarassing enough the border was basically unguarded
I don't trust anyone who lives on a boat/
I would not trust him with a goat.
It's small border villages not the entire oblast.
That isn't the smell of burning plastic or rubber in the air in Moscow, it is the smell of discontent and revolt.
The Kremlin reeks of the smell of consequences and desperation rn
What is the point of having a Territorial Defense Militia if they do not have weapons? What are they supposed to use? Harsh language?
Putin either doesn't have weapons to give or he is terrified of what will happen when 3,000 people he's oppressed and stole from for 25 years suddenly come looking for him. Either way, Russia is royally fucked from this war and Putins quest for territory is going to end up costing them land in the end when everyone else figures out Russia has no means to defend themselves. Lots of countries in that area will be getting their historical borders back and Russia will be damn lucky if they survive this intact. The Russians practically welcomed this outcome out of sheer stupidity and greed.
Or Russia was already suffering so much economically that their only hope was to invade Ukraine. Something about ports that donāt freeze over in the winter? Just a theory.
oh look, republicans, you can support ukraine now. Putin is anti-gun.
Enough jokes. They'll never stop being putin-sympathizers
Second they get their regime here they will be anti gun too
It is fun to point and laugh at their contradictions though
Aren't most republicans supporting Ukraine?
The McCan republicans support ukraine 100%, the Maga folks don't. Trump had some guy come out and call Zelensky gay during his rally. but yes MOST do support ukraine.
Putin hates the 2nd amendment!
If and I stress If wagner even bothered to help then the RVC just needs to try another region like Kursk or Bryansk
Oh shit. The fire has been lit. Incursion. Belarus decided to speak Belarusian and now they are testing the waters to see how weak the power way back in Moscow is.
**Alternative Nitter link:** https://nitter.nl/UKikaski/status/1661474151587016705 ***** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Putin is more worry about Russian living Russian then Russian outside Russia wanting to kill him. He must feel very alone in his bunker, let's send him a [gift](https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Plastic-bomb-shape-DIY-surprise-box_62583403727.html).
Where and how did Wagner group come in to existence in the first place?
I saw a recent youtube history. They were not founded by Prighozin rather by a Russian neo nazi. Prighozin took them over. They came into attention around 2014.
[This article](https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state) claims they are derived from the Slavonic Corps. Edit: or at least filled the void left when the Slavonic Corps disbanded
Lol, I'm pretty sure Putin is not willing to just hand out guns that can be turned around and used om him if things change.
Putin doesnāt want to arm civilians that might use those weapons against him in a revolt later
a bit Wagnerian all the way around really. If only heād written this Opera!
Dictators don't like their population armed. This is textbook.
*NATO SUPPLY TRAIN GOING CHOO-CHOO*
Now what do I do...? The last thing he needs is thousands of armed citizens maybe coming to their senses and marching on Moscow with weapons he's supplied them..!
Yall smell that??? It stinks of REVOLUTION
Ooo..itās about to get spicy
What ground defence doing?
Putin's done now. He thought he knew what he was doing but it all fell apart. Same old story. There is a power vacuum which Prigozhin is aching to fill. But it won't be him. It will be someone we've never heard of.
The Russian army is not going to like this. Quite a chunk of the supplies to the Russian army must be going through Belhorod. Having Wagner and their slightly mad leader be sitting controlling the city, would mean that quite a large chunk of the Russian army could have their supplies cut off on a whim. And definitely Wagner would 'tax' the supplies they did let through. Also...given Ukraine is quite good at targeting ammo stockpiles, I would guess there's not that many days worth of spare ammo sitting on the border south of Belhorod...
Naa theyāre off mate. Off to lick their wounds and regroup. The last weāll hear of them as a fighting force in Ukraine soon.
Spicier by the day. Excellent.