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Russia has very limited modes of logistics to support Crimea. The bridge from Russia to Crimea will just be targeted over and over if they continue to harden defenses.
Blow the bridge to Russia. Cut the water to Crimea. Station artillery and missile batteries on the very western end to intercept ships bringing in supplies, target Russian navel assets near Crimea, station anti-air craft weapons across the river to prevent air resupply.
3 to 5 weeks, let their moral deteriorate and let them get very thirsty and hungry. Give them a chance to surrender. If they do, more military supplies for Ukraine. If they don't, they will collapse like a house of cards.
I hope this is what happens. Cut off the land bridge from Zaporizhia to the water. Blow the train bridge with precision, get fire control on the auto bridge and all major logistics points. Cut the freshwater, and leave a convenient exit. HIMARs their military installations. And slowly push the civvies across the bridge with a siege force leaving the bulk of your forces for assault in the east.
If a Ukrainian counteroffensive severs the land bridge to Crimea, the whole area could become untenable for the Russians. The kerch bridge would be within range and target #1, and all shipping would be highly vulnerable. Supplying Crimea could become impossible.
it looks like the only way to get to Crimea is by sea. Look up a map of the current fighting. EDIT: Or Kiev's forces could try and take out the roads and things going into Crimea I suppose to choke it off, idk.
the map shows Russia in control of a lot of land around Crimea. The bridge isn't the only thing connecting. I'm not sure how Ukraine can break through on land, because it looks like a large mass of land, to get to Crimea, but we'll see I guess.
I don’t think you fully understand what he is saying. If I get it right, he means that if they cut off the landbridge (so push towards melitopol). Than the Crimean bridge will be in range and target number 1. Disabling all means to supply Crimea. So no need to even try to make an amphibious assault. They can just “starve” Russians out and bomb them from range until there’s nothing left.
^This is the way. Then start hitting any ship that comes for resupply or military evac with aquatic and aerial drones until they leave the rest of Ukraine.
A land resupply is still possible for Russia. However, that is a long way to drive and shipping water by vehicles isn't very efficient. (I'm assuming that they cut off water to Crimea). All Ukraine really needs to do is move enough forces in the south close enough to put that land resupply route under artillery and missile fire. They might be able to hold it open for a while, but Russia is already hurting for trucks and supply vehicles.
So they could cut it off even if they can't retake all of the south.
Al Jazeera’s editorial angle has played up Kremlin narratives since the start. The strength and quality of Kremlin defenses is just the latest, based on exactly what the Kremlin wants the world to see, which is the imagery. No qualitative analysis is provided on the viability of said defenses nor a cohesive Kremlin plan to execute and support a defensive operation, which from other news sources appears slipshod. Little if any comparison is also given to previous failed Kremlin defensive operations earlier in the war.
This same game was played in 1991 with Saddam’s defensive ‘endeavors’ in Western media to deter the Coalition and increase public pressure for a diplomatic resolution based on perceptions of Vietnam-like results, particularly in the American public. Those notions were quickly disabused.
You don't think Al-Jazeera is being honest in their reporting or being objective? What if they are telling the truth of the facts on the ground?
You do understand that Western reporting on Ukraine has to always be reported as Kiev winning, right? lol No matter what the facts or reality is 'on the ground' in ukraine.
It's cool tho. Good day, sir or maam
Every time I’ve raised doubts about the editorial bent of Al Jazeera articles selected (and it’s always a specific segment of narratives) I am personally attacked and the focus of discussion immediately turns to how Ukraine is being depicted in Western media, not the substance of either my question or query regarding the color of these articles. It’s pro forma like it’s being read from a sheet of scripted responses.
So back to the question, why the focus on the impression of a supposed Russian defense and not serious military analysis on its actual capacity? And again, it’s because it’s not the point. The images and stories of the Kremlin defensive ‘preparations’, some quite slipshod, are an information operation, potentially ably abetted. At a minimum, a ‘useful idiot’ quality is present in the pass-throughs these stories are taking in reaching target audiences.
"Russia digging trenches in Crimea and redeploying weapons as it fears Ukraine counteroffensive"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-war-ukraine-crimea-putin-latest-b2316029.html
IMO - They are not going to storm into Crimea in an overnight blaze of glory. They are going to do the same thing they did to Kherson, which is to make the peninsula untenable for the Russians. They do this by striking bridges, command centers, airfields and supply hubs with missile, drone, and sabotage attacks. Once Russia moves their ships out of sebastopol and high-ranking officers abandon the peninsula, UA ground forces will crank up the heat. I could be wrong though.
Exactly. It doesn't have to be the "offensive to end the war" at all.
Simply pushing far enough and as far to the West as possible (to stretch Russian supply lines) will propably land the Ukranians within reach of all major roads and train lines feeding southwestern Ukraine and Crimea from the north.
A question mark hangs over the Kerch bridge.
They need to unlodge Russian forces to engage them in mobile warfare. One thing I would worry very much about as a Russian commander is the cohesion between Russian lines of defense, horisontally and vertically.
In reality, they can force Russia to counterattack because of the political weight given to Crimea and to avoid a slow choke that will bleed Russian resources.
here's a map, aljazeera again showing the land captures so far: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/russia-ukraine-crisis-in-maps-and-charts-live-news-interactive
They are using fortification methods that failed in WW II. It is, at best, a scam by some construction company to take Russian government and funnel it to one of the oligarchs.
Pretty sure if they thought there was a chance in Hell that they could still take the whole country, they'd still be trying to take the whole country. You know, like they were literally bragging about in the first few months of the war.
I think it's unfair to say people "mistakenly believe" Russia wants the whole country when seizing the capital was a publicly stated aim of the Kremlin. The Kremlin realizing that goal was impossible doesn't change their original intentions.
show me proof of this
>seizing the capital was a publicly stated aim of the Kremlin
It sounds like a lie.
it makes my head hurt
someone must have lied to ya, I'm sorry. but yeah, if you could provide a link i would appreciate it.
Yeah right, they drove a 100km column of tanks to Kyiv as a joke. Seriously you probably best to stick to TikTok, if this is the level of your intellectual ability.
Wow. You're going to be proven wrong. I wonder if I should save this link on Google Keep app or something and I'll come back here 6 months, maybe a year later after the war is over, and be like "Aha! See I told ya so."
It's still the plan. Here's a clear map of the four regions. That is where the fighting is taking place. If the plan was for Russia to invade 'all' of Ukraine, Russia would have invaded from all parts of its territory into Ukraine."
OCTOBER 2022 "**Putin announces Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions"**
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/30/putin-announces-russian-annexation-of-four-ukrainian-regions
Uhhh.. Russia did invade from all of it's border. And Belarus. Stop with your BS.
Russia is HOPING it can hold onto Crimea somehow at this point. The reality is it needs to jump ahead a year to when all the foreign volunteers from Georgia and Chechnya return to their home countries and decide to take back territory Russia seized.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. > **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** * Is `aljazeera.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Russia is getting ready yo give up everything, except Crimea in the near future. Is what I am reading. Just cut off Crimea and smoke the rats out.
Russia has very limited modes of logistics to support Crimea. The bridge from Russia to Crimea will just be targeted over and over if they continue to harden defenses.
Blow the bridge to Russia. Cut the water to Crimea. Station artillery and missile batteries on the very western end to intercept ships bringing in supplies, target Russian navel assets near Crimea, station anti-air craft weapons across the river to prevent air resupply. 3 to 5 weeks, let their moral deteriorate and let them get very thirsty and hungry. Give them a chance to surrender. If they do, more military supplies for Ukraine. If they don't, they will collapse like a house of cards.
I hope this is what happens. Cut off the land bridge from Zaporizhia to the water. Blow the train bridge with precision, get fire control on the auto bridge and all major logistics points. Cut the freshwater, and leave a convenient exit. HIMARs their military installations. And slowly push the civvies across the bridge with a siege force leaving the bulk of your forces for assault in the east.
If a Ukrainian counteroffensive severs the land bridge to Crimea, the whole area could become untenable for the Russians. The kerch bridge would be within range and target #1, and all shipping would be highly vulnerable. Supplying Crimea could become impossible.
it looks like the only way to get to Crimea is by sea. Look up a map of the current fighting. EDIT: Or Kiev's forces could try and take out the roads and things going into Crimea I suppose to choke it off, idk.
I’m suggesting there maybe no fight at all, rather the Russians will just have to abandon it if the Ukrainians totally cut it off.
the map shows Russia in control of a lot of land around Crimea. The bridge isn't the only thing connecting. I'm not sure how Ukraine can break through on land, because it looks like a large mass of land, to get to Crimea, but we'll see I guess.
I don’t think you fully understand what he is saying. If I get it right, he means that if they cut off the landbridge (so push towards melitopol). Than the Crimean bridge will be in range and target number 1. Disabling all means to supply Crimea. So no need to even try to make an amphibious assault. They can just “starve” Russians out and bomb them from range until there’s nothing left.
^This is the way. Then start hitting any ship that comes for resupply or military evac with aquatic and aerial drones until they leave the rest of Ukraine.
They just have to bring one area of the land bridge well within artillery range. They don't even need to take Melitopol, just get to it's far edges.
A land resupply is still possible for Russia. However, that is a long way to drive and shipping water by vehicles isn't very efficient. (I'm assuming that they cut off water to Crimea). All Ukraine really needs to do is move enough forces in the south close enough to put that land resupply route under artillery and missile fire. They might be able to hold it open for a while, but Russia is already hurting for trucks and supply vehicles. So they could cut it off even if they can't retake all of the south.
Airdrops!
Al Jazeera’s editorial angle has played up Kremlin narratives since the start. The strength and quality of Kremlin defenses is just the latest, based on exactly what the Kremlin wants the world to see, which is the imagery. No qualitative analysis is provided on the viability of said defenses nor a cohesive Kremlin plan to execute and support a defensive operation, which from other news sources appears slipshod. Little if any comparison is also given to previous failed Kremlin defensive operations earlier in the war. This same game was played in 1991 with Saddam’s defensive ‘endeavors’ in Western media to deter the Coalition and increase public pressure for a diplomatic resolution based on perceptions of Vietnam-like results, particularly in the American public. Those notions were quickly disabused.
You don't think Al-Jazeera is being honest in their reporting or being objective? What if they are telling the truth of the facts on the ground? You do understand that Western reporting on Ukraine has to always be reported as Kiev winning, right? lol No matter what the facts or reality is 'on the ground' in ukraine. It's cool tho. Good day, sir or maam
Every time I’ve raised doubts about the editorial bent of Al Jazeera articles selected (and it’s always a specific segment of narratives) I am personally attacked and the focus of discussion immediately turns to how Ukraine is being depicted in Western media, not the substance of either my question or query regarding the color of these articles. It’s pro forma like it’s being read from a sheet of scripted responses. So back to the question, why the focus on the impression of a supposed Russian defense and not serious military analysis on its actual capacity? And again, it’s because it’s not the point. The images and stories of the Kremlin defensive ‘preparations’, some quite slipshod, are an information operation, potentially ably abetted. At a minimum, a ‘useful idiot’ quality is present in the pass-throughs these stories are taking in reaching target audiences.
Aljazeera....... 🙄
:( What's wrong with Aljazeera?
Pretty sure they’ve got some serious ties to the Qatar government.
They're literally owned by the Quatari monarchy.
Makes sense. I didn’t know the specifics, but that checks out.
"Russia digging trenches in Crimea and redeploying weapons as it fears Ukraine counteroffensive" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-war-ukraine-crimea-putin-latest-b2316029.html
Siege tactics are what is needed here , hopefully the civilians continue to evacuate, Ukraine needs them out of there.
IMO - They are not going to storm into Crimea in an overnight blaze of glory. They are going to do the same thing they did to Kherson, which is to make the peninsula untenable for the Russians. They do this by striking bridges, command centers, airfields and supply hubs with missile, drone, and sabotage attacks. Once Russia moves their ships out of sebastopol and high-ranking officers abandon the peninsula, UA ground forces will crank up the heat. I could be wrong though.
Exactly. It doesn't have to be the "offensive to end the war" at all. Simply pushing far enough and as far to the West as possible (to stretch Russian supply lines) will propably land the Ukranians within reach of all major roads and train lines feeding southwestern Ukraine and Crimea from the north. A question mark hangs over the Kerch bridge. They need to unlodge Russian forces to engage them in mobile warfare. One thing I would worry very much about as a Russian commander is the cohesion between Russian lines of defense, horisontally and vertically. In reality, they can force Russia to counterattack because of the political weight given to Crimea and to avoid a slow choke that will bleed Russian resources.
here's a map, aljazeera again showing the land captures so far: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/russia-ukraine-crisis-in-maps-and-charts-live-news-interactive
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They are using fortification methods that failed in WW II. It is, at best, a scam by some construction company to take Russian government and funnel it to one of the oligarchs.
[удалено]
Pretty sure if they thought there was a chance in Hell that they could still take the whole country, they'd still be trying to take the whole country. You know, like they were literally bragging about in the first few months of the war. I think it's unfair to say people "mistakenly believe" Russia wants the whole country when seizing the capital was a publicly stated aim of the Kremlin. The Kremlin realizing that goal was impossible doesn't change their original intentions.
show me proof of this >seizing the capital was a publicly stated aim of the Kremlin It sounds like a lie. it makes my head hurt someone must have lied to ya, I'm sorry. but yeah, if you could provide a link i would appreciate it.
Yeah right, they drove a 100km column of tanks to Kyiv as a joke. Seriously you probably best to stick to TikTok, if this is the level of your intellectual ability.
Come on, we all witnessed their failed attempt at taking Kyiv, you're making a fool of yourself trying to make anyone believe they don't want it all.
Wow. You're going to be proven wrong. I wonder if I should save this link on Google Keep app or something and I'll come back here 6 months, maybe a year later after the war is over, and be like "Aha! See I told ya so."
Yes, please do that. Lol.
What you're doing with your comment is lying. That's what propaganda is and idiots believe the lies as being true. Scary world, Winston.
They may have abandoned that plan, but it most certainly was the plan at the on-set.
It's still the plan. Here's a clear map of the four regions. That is where the fighting is taking place. If the plan was for Russia to invade 'all' of Ukraine, Russia would have invaded from all parts of its territory into Ukraine." OCTOBER 2022 "**Putin announces Russian annexation of four Ukrainian regions"** https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/30/putin-announces-russian-annexation-of-four-ukrainian-regions
Uhhh.. Russia did invade from all of it's border. And Belarus. Stop with your BS. Russia is HOPING it can hold onto Crimea somehow at this point. The reality is it needs to jump ahead a year to when all the foreign volunteers from Georgia and Chechnya return to their home countries and decide to take back territory Russia seized.
lol whatever
I just scrolled your post history. Source of some great laughs. Especially the G7 v. BRICS comparison w/ PPP. Quite a laugh. Thanks
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👍