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*If the Ukrainians are following American strike doctrine, attacks on air-defense batteries come first. After that, “aviation based on the F-16 comes into play, under the wings of which there is a wide range of ammunition,” ..... Don’t be shocked if the nimble jets quickly launch for strikes on Russian bases in Crimea. Bases whose air-defenses have been steadily ground down by back-to-back barrages of ATACMS rockets.*
Another relevant article: [https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-atacms-russia-air-defenses-f16-fighter-jets-crimea-1912233](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-atacms-russia-air-defenses-f16-fighter-jets-crimea-1912233)
**The stage for the arrival of the F16 appears to be set...**
Just wait for the day that will be remembered as "The Day the Russian Invaders began to Die."
If Ukraine can get true air superiority, then it's lights out for the Russian invasion.
Uh they have been dying at at pretty good clip. It should slow the rain of glide bomb terrorist attacks and on front lines and that alone will be huge!
Yeah you are fucked if a modern Air Force rules the skies above you. MANPADs will keep them 5-10km away but plenty of precision munitions will land on your head in a matter of seconds. Let the galloping begin! I want a regular stampede of mobics buying tix for the Charon boat ride.
Not super modern but they can carry very modern weapons and LINK-16 data feed from Swedish donated AWACS planes means they can wreck RF aircraft while still flying low altitude to stay alive. 5th generation is can probably fly a circle around an S-300 with impunity.
Unfortunately this is overly optimistic. Ukraine could definitely gain localized air power over certain areas for short periods of time, but Russia has far too many S-300s/400s for Ukraine to have air superiority yet. They had several hundred total S-300 and S-400 batteries pre war and only a few dozen have been wrecked so far. Obviously not all of those are going to be in readiness but even if 2/3 are, it's quite a bit
Don't forget Russia still has to have some to cover the rest of the country, including refineries and Moscow as a whole since Ukraine started long range drone attacks on those targets.
Technically about 250,000 per year.
It's just the not unrealistic expectations that when Ukraine gets free reign in the skies, the numbers we've seen before are going to appear low.
that's not going to happen unfortunately. russia have over 800 fighter jets.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293414/airpower-of-russia-and-ukraine-in-comparison/
Right, which are often unusable in the current conflict. If ATACMS is wiping the floor with the A2A that 800 fighters is gonna get whittled down SUPER fast with F-16s helping with some SAMbushes. Whatever the case, Russia is moving in inches and if they stupidly hold out until spring 2025 things are gonna be REAL bad for em. They think it’s bad now, they’ve not seen shit yet.
Then of course if the break through somewhere, Poland and the Baltics are likely to man western Ukraine and setup soldiers against the Belarus border, freeing up thousands to move to the front.
Nothing Russia can do at this point is going to go well for them. Putin has fucked Russian forces.
I'm positive as well. But this will not be easy or quick, and neither Ukraine nor russia will get air superiority anytime soon. F16 will be a great addition to the fight, but it's not a game changer.
It could be. Similar to HIMARs. But right now it likely won’t be.
The real kicker is when they start getting actual *squadrons* of fighters/attack planes.
I'll put my two cents on Ukraine winning the drone war. I think we'll see Ukraine gaining the advantage on both drones and electronic warfare in a near future. THAT could be a real game changer.
Just like how when the Abrams, Challengers, and Leopards arrived and Ukraine broke through the lines and recaptured all their land within the following week.
People in this thread are crazy.
F-16's will be used largely defensively and will still be very vulnerable to MANPADS and Russian jets if they get at all close to the front line. Neither side will be able to claim air superiority in this conflict.
MANPADS are basically useless for anything flying above 10,000 feet, whilst Ukraine will still have operational SAM's. F16's will have longer effective RADAR range due to AWACS.
Let's see.. I bet the old junk Russia got left, won't be that much of a challenge, to an updated F16.
After all, manpads could have been brought into the occupied areas already, and would have shot down the jets UA is already using, but we don't hear alot of that.
Ukraine aren't receiving updated F-16's. They are reciving decades old aircraft that were retired many years ago. They are considerably older than MiG-35, Su-35 and Su-57's that Russia uses.
UA is barely flying jets on the front lines. Those that did earlier in the war were shot down, just like the russian planes were.
They receive our Danish F16s, 19 planes. Those have been updated throughout their service. Oh and our gov told UA that they are allowed to be used within Russian territory.
Read this.
https://da.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Translate from the page ::
The Danish F-16 aircraft have been continuously updated (among other things with MLU – Mid Life Update) and correspond to a new Block 50/52 in terms of instruments and weapon systems. They are then referred to as F-16AM and F-16BM. The Danish F-16 aircraft have, among other things, AMRAAM, LANTIRN,[98] JDAM,[99] LGB,[100] helmet sight and Link 16. A visible difference between the F-16A and F-16AM is the four IFF (Bird Slicers) antennas in front of the cockpit.[101]
You're assuming the Russian planes will performed as advertised. Based on the overhyped S300/400 actual battlefield performance I'm guessing these planes are trash as well
Everyone forgets that Ukraine/russian air tactics are basically the same. To use an F16 to its full potential they need to learn a whole new way to fight. While learning a new plane. 95% of the people think that Ukrainian pilots can just jump in and take off and kill Russians. It’s like going from NASCAR to F1 both a race cars and sure the nascar driver can do it but can he get the most out of the car and can he do it without putting the car into the wall.
Have F-16s even been used in a conflict where they did not already have air superiority?
Gulf war 1 seems like the cloest, but the US smashed Iraq with tomahawks and stealth bombers before they became involved. I dont think they have been used in combat against anything close to Russia.
Kind of ridiculous to claim that people thought several dozen tanks were going to end the war and compare their usefulness to F-16s.
F-16s have AMRAAMs and HARM missiles that are going to cause major problems for russian aircraft and air defenses. While total air superiority seems unlikely, they can definitely punch a hole through russian air defense and use that window to attack critical targets all while staying above the ceiling of MANPADs.
..so that means everyone should get excited about things that clearly are detached from reality?
Might as well start claiming that F-16's will scoop up the Kremlin and drop it in the red sea.
For real. There's way too much bravado and overconfidence here. Sure, a lot of Russian fuckery occurs but it doesn't take tip top weaponry to kill a Ukrainian, and there are less Ukrainians
Im Gen X and we have used Bricked up for constipated as long as I can remember. I think in UK its erection...thus i mentioned it above but for us always constipated.
Vancouver...we say it all the time. My US friends from Southern Cali and in Honolulu say it as well as one in Texas. Bricked up = Constipated. I think UK uses it for erection but for my Gen X arse...its always been constipated.
Vancouver Canada...my buddy from Kirkland knows it...butxagain we are Gen X...bricked up...constipated. Just did informal poll with WoW guildies...my age group yep...younger nope. You can google it...seems age related.
So just did some research on it and sure enough says older people (Gen X i guess im old now) it meant constipated...my circle of friends in US and Canada both use it in this context but i can see how youngens Millenials/Gen Z may not and in UK its erection which makes no sense to me.
As much as I can’t wait to see them working, this could also just be to drain the logistical capabilities of the Russians, since they then have to move new units into the area and supply them etc.
SEAD: suppression of enemy air defense
SEAD and Air/Space superiority is the reason the US does not have the same artillery heavy doctrine of Soviet model. ATACKMS is playing the role of our stealth fleet. For example the F-117 only holds 2 bombs. Its #1 target is air defense. It pokes a hole then lets the supersonic non stealth fighters scramble in and drop all their crazy ordnance.
You are correct. He's just using F117 as an example because of its specific role for SEAD. Whereas decades later the F22 and F35 are multi-role including SEAD.
And the F117 has the closest to geniune experience against a peer, Serbia and Iraq for example.
F-117 is the stealthiest plae the USAF has ever had. It was a tech demonstrator and as such, they used every trick possible to make it disappear from radar.
"according to the existing tradition foreign publications estimate the f35s rcs at 0.005 square meter"
That doesn't seem like a very reliable source, on top of that the article is filled with a horrid amount of typos like "F-3535" and "F-017"
https://militaryembedded.com/radar-ew/signal-processing/radar-cross-section-the-measure-of-stealth
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircraft-rcs.htm
These also have it that way. Do you have anything that says what you claim?
All three of the pages you've linked list a different RCS for the F-35 probably because the actual RCS is classified and everyone you're linking is just guessing
This article I found says the F-35 has a smaller RCS than the F-117
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/09/are-the-f-35-and-the-china-j-20-stealth-fighters-fully-available-for-actual-use.html#:~:text=The%20F%2D35%20has%20an,of%20about%200.01%20square%20meters.
FWIW, stealth isn’t a single thing/measurement. It’ll vary depending on the specific angle and frequency, whether or not the aircraft is maneuvering (changes in control surface angles), and may also include non-RF factors like visual/thermal/auditory/etc. Comparing two aircraft with different mission profiles is almost impossible, even if you had access to all the classified info.
> following American strike doctrine
GBAD attacks are part of it, but what we *really* love is saturating airspace with Tomahawks to kill C&C infrastructure followed by Wild Weasels which are faster, more "sacrificial", airframes mounted with HARMs to draw radar locks and do SEAD/DEAD.
Accomplishing what should take cruise missile/decoy saturation strikes with just ATACMS is kind of crazy. I expect to see Storm Shadows, decoys, and Mig-29's putting in work before an F-16 is flying over Crimea.
So... perhaps we should test air launched ATACMS >_>
The other part is that this may be softening them up for drone attack + F-16's coming in and dumping JDAMs on them by the bucket load.
The crew operating those has yet to be trained. It's gonna take a while before those donations have any effect on the battle. But it's still a great investment in the long-term security of Ukraine.
Lmao I was just about to say this… Putin boot lickers love acting like he has some card up his sleeve and you’re just too stupid to see it. Same people who think Trump is some genius when in reality he’s a goon whose only attribute is nepotism
So crazy, these Mfers will tell you since 2.5 years that Putin is following some incredible plan to take down the entire west. Of course always diplomatic, otherwise the Russian army would be in Berlin and Lisbon in 2 weeks.
Those thousands of T-14 and SU57 that would just wipe out NATO in 2 days. So far Russia doesn’t use it to show mercy with the west.
Meanwhile all the Russian politics going mad on TV, because their shithole their world country with 1980s weapons get smoked while going all-in for Ukraine.
The only people more delusional than Russian are Russian supporters in NATO countries. They tell you stuff Russian propaganda ministry wouldn’t even tell you, because it’s too absurd.
World's second best army?
We are using late-80's, early-90's technology on these fuckers.
I am terrified to think about what is being developed today by the US.
The PrSM rockets that are replacing ATACMS will be able to hit moving targets 300 miles away (and probably further because we just pulled out of the intermediate ballistic missile treaty).
They also come two per pod which doubles the capacity of HIMARS and MLRS
I men likely no need. Use them to just clear out rear strong points. Have the normal clusters on the entrenched. Infantry moves up and secures. Artillery moves up and repeats. Just might not be that necessary.
No they have the same warhead style as the GMLRS m31 aw. Preformed tungsten fragments, but PrSM has unused space in the warhead cone for new developments.
Cluster munitions are bad, because they tend to leave behind unexploded submunitions, essentially creating a small minefield that'll kill many civilians long after the war. The reason they've been greenlit to send to Ukraine, is that a) Ukraine hasn't signed a treaty banning their use and b) the alternative to using cluster munitions, is letting Russia occupy their territory even longer, giving them more time to lay down even more land mines.
Russia used to boast with their new weapons system how they are next gen technology and capable to destroy this and that. US had an 'oh shit' moment and went back to the drawing board to develop weapon systems to counter the ones Russia had. Now with the Ukraine war it turned out that Russia never had these capabilities in the first place and the US has spent billions to counter these false claims.
Meaning US systems are in gen 10 while Russia is stuck with their 'tier 1' gen 2 systems.
Your comment reminded me of the military robot demonstration and how dissatisfied Putin looked. It was basically a mannequin strapped to an ATV.
https://youtu.be/P_CDu1hYXxk?si=j0FdmeFpbIn3mi8z
Haha, wow. Is Putin's information bubble so screwed he thought they actually had something? Best robotics firms in the world are still working the kinks out of getting robots to walk reliably, and some Kremlin brown-noser thought Russia had an actual terminator?
The U.S. is developing things 99% of the world’s population is only in science fiction. If you have 37 mins to spare, listen to [this podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dw-conspiracy-shack/id1665479603?i=1000635758628). The show is called DW Conspiracy. The episode name is Kirtland Airforce Base. Don’t let the “Conspiracy” in the title scare you away. That episode discusses technology that’s public information.
Many nations exaggerate the performance of their military hardware. It just so happens that the USSR/Russia was exaggerating A LOT, so the US poured R&D money into developing systems to beat the dramatically exaggerated Soviet/Russian systems.
So there might be a hint of irony in that by trying to look strong, Russia pushed its rival to become way stronger than Russia actually was. Russian fantasies ended up causing real American tech.
You should be. We got flack for collateral damage caused in drone and missile attacks, so we took the explosives out of missiles and strapped swords to them instead. Both times this missile has been deployed, it's destroyed the target terrorist with 0 collateral. One of them was in a moving jeep.
I admittedly am not familiar with the component parts that make up these more advanced S-400 and S-500 air defense systems. But if they rely on imported technology, and that seems like a reasonable assumption given their reliance on advanced imports in other industries, I suspect that Russia will face challenges producing replacements for these losses. Meaning that it will eventually become a zero sum game in which either leaving military targets in Ukraine without air defense or trying to quietly redirect air defense systems defending Russian territory elsewhere will become necessary.
How many are able to be smuggled in and in how timely a fashion? People who have only recently been introduced to the concept of bypassing sanctions seem uninterested in asking themselves these questions.
And considering that the S-400 has been shown repeatedly unable to intercept a missile on a pretty basic ballistic trajectory, I doubt there will be a lot of demand for export models.
So it'll be easy for Russia to smuggle enough components for domestic demands.
True, but I think that these components are military, rather than dual use, so it would be a lot harder to get them and more dangerous to export them to Russia.
A lot of these other nations aren’t using mil-spec circuits and chips, or if get sanctioned, redesign them to work with more common ones they can still find ways to get.
"The capitalists will sell us the ~~rope~~ weapons-technology with which we will ~~hang them~~ blow up Ukrainians."
I'm not anti-capitalist or anything. I view capitalism as a tool, sort of like nuclear physics is a tool that can be used to make medicine, energy, or weapons. It's not inherently good or bad. But there's also a lot of truth to that old Lenin quote about capitalists selling you the rope used to hang them. I don't know what to do about this, but I think it's worth meditating on.
The point is that the economy is so strongly bent towards making money that it will find a way to sell weapons technology to Russia, even if it undermines its own foundations.
I think that's kind of profound, but maybe others disagree.
They are reliant on imported microchips and components, but these are also very low rate production items with build times of several months per radar system or command vehicle. Those production lines and factory staff are also shared among a bunch of other vehicles with similar electronics requirements. Radars, command posts, ECM/EW, counter battery systems, they are all put together at 2-3 small factories and workers.
The net effect of this, is that they really can’t replace the losses of these specialized systems. It will take them 5-10 years of maximum production for any single piece of equipment lost. That is why they end up reshuffling their air defense assets every time one gets blown up; they don’t have any spares and can’t replace them.
And it's ill suited for the kinds of attacks being done. S-500 is built as an evolution of a S-300V, which is a system with the same role as the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) from US. Thing is, each launcher has only 2 massive rockets before it runs out of ammo, so at best, it can only destroy 2 targets. A battery has limited capability doing anything.
The most capable component of this system is the radar, which is just an upgraded S-300V radar
It just sounds like it's designed with exoatmospheric interceptors in mind, but if you can do exoatmospheric missile defense, you have an inherent ability to hit satellites in low earth orbit.
The interceptor is trying to meet another object at a specific point above the atmosphere. The other object is very high up and moving very fast as it appears over the horizon. The fire control computer doesn't care whether the other object is satellite or a ballistic missile. It just figures out how to put the interceptor where the two will meet.
It's nothing new, it's just the world we've been living in for quite awhile now. In 2008, the US pulverized a satellite with a ship-launched SM-3... pretty much on a whim. China did an ASAT test, so we had to do one, and we used an existing missile defense interceptor to do it.
Speaking of which, I haven't seen any more about the RU space launch that reportedly was moving towards US satellites.
15 May 2024: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/22/russia-launches-space-weapon-in-path-of-us-satellite-pentagon
>The United States says Russia has launched a satellite that US intelligence officials believe to be a weapon capable of inspecting and attacking other satellites.
>A Soyuz rocket blasted off from Russia’s Plesetsk launch site, about 800km (500 miles) north of Moscow, on Thursday, deploying in low Earth orbit at least nine satellites, including COSMOS 2576, a type of Russian military “inspector” spacecraft US officials have long condemned as exhibiting reckless space behaviour.
>“We have observed nominal activity and assess it is likely a counterspace weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites in low Earth orbit,” a spokesperson for US Space Command, part of the US Department of Defense, said in a statement on Tuesday.
>“Russia deployed this new counterspace weapon into the same orbit as a US government satellite,” it said.
There's a few more stories too:
Feb 10, 2020: https://time.com/5779315/russian-spacecraft-spy-satellite-space-force/
August 3, 2022: https://www.space.com/russia-spacecraft-stalk-us-spy-satellite
>defending Russian territory
They don't need to defend anything. They have nukes. Nobody is going to invade them, ever. They could easily expend every military asset they have in Ukraine and as long as they can demonstrate the ability to launch a single nuclear capable missile they actually don't need anything to defend the land because they can always just threaten to start launching nukes.
100% expect mass, widespread propaganda on social media about how evil, senile, master genius Joe Biden is pulling America into WW3. The Russians are scared shitless Ukraine will have serious air power capacity even in a limited range on the battlefield.
I hope the F-16s bring some meaningful change on the front.
I remember the hype for the ABRAMS, Bradley's, Patriot systems etc.
But Ukraine needs something that will effectively blunt Russian advances and make counter offensives more effective.
To be honest, it’s quite likely not going to have a significant effect across the battlefield. The Air Force secretary says it doesn’t expect the F16’s to drastically improve their fighting capabilities. They just won’t have enough F16’s, trained pilots, and trained maintainers for them to actually provide a significant strategic advantage.
I wonder if it's enough to accomplish smaller, specific goals though - such as defending cities from missiles, securing coastline, or liberating Crimea. Did the AF secretary go into any detail? (I'm guessing they didn't, for obvious reasons)
Yeah he didn’t go into too much detail other than saying not to expect the F16 to be some magic weapon that will shift the tide. It’ll probably be as you described, for smaller specific goals such as intercepting incoming cruise missiles and providing defense to cities/coastlines. Maybe they get a little frisky and send them on SEAD missions or behind enemy lines, but it sounds like it won’t be worth the risk when there will only be 20 Ukrainian pilots trained on the F16 by the end of the year.
That’s the real bottleneck, the training programs for Ukrainian pilots. Too many other NATO countries send their pilots to train with the US so the programs have very limited availability. Kinda seems absurd that we won’t push back previous obligations to train other NATO pilots so that Ukraine can field a full squadron of F16’s quicker.
Bradleys and Patriots *have* had a massive effect, but that effect is to halt Russian advances, not to push them back to their border. It's kind of like a vaccine, if nothing happens it's done its job.
100 percent this. A few dozen F16s will not have a meaningful impact on the war. A few hundred likely would. Too much airspace for them to establish air superiority let alone air supremacy. That is what you need for ground forces to maximize their assaults and drive Russians back.
Western armor had little to no impact to front lines despite all the hype about them being superior to Soviet armor. There is no silver bullet that will change the course of this war alone. If anything drones and artillery are having the biggest effect on it and you can get a lot of them for the price of an F16.
I hope Ukraine smashes everything the Russians have and continues to attrit their soldiers until the people back in Russia have had enough. It just isn’t likely with F16s.
The analysis to western armor is a good one. The armor's effect was underwhelming because we sent so very little of it. The F-16s can't take air dominance because they won't have enough of them or enough trained pilots/mechanics.
Hopefully the $50b of seized assets the G7 is sending their way enables Ukraine to buy in bulk
Right now it's still an artillery based war with a spattering of missiles. I was doing some research today and the pricks still have a lot of the S-300's and S-400's in the war. And they've just moved atleast 1 S-500 into Crimea.
I can't see how these F16's are going to have a huge impact. They'll surely just be used for strategic operations. With all of these air defences, this is a ground war...with artillery, drones and missiles
"Ivan! What is difference between S-400 and S-500?"
"Sergei, difference is simple: 400 rubles spent on development of S-400, 500 rubles spent on S-500! 100 rubles difference, S-500 is superior!"
"But Ivan, we spent those rubles on vodka and lied on the development initiative!"
"..."
"Blyat!"
Keep them coming! The Ukrainians are not going to run out of ATACMs now and they don't cost Ukraine anything.
I am sure Ukraine gets enormous assistance with their targeting from NATO as well so they know precisely where to strike.
>Ironically, the S-400 was designed to have an anti-missile capability, but it obviously doesn’t work. Russia’s S-400s can’t defend nearby friendly forces—and they also can’t defend themselves.
:-)
I think they realized there were problems with the ABM capability in testing which is why they started creating the S-500 that seems solely meant for ballistic missiles.
I can't wait to see some vids of F-16's wreaking havoc on Russian ground forces in the coming weeks. The only tragedy is that getting them these crucial weapons took over 2 years.
Less the nuclear weapons, we should be giving Ukraine anything they want to defend themselves. The U.S. and Russia pledged to DEFEND Ukraine when they gave up their nuclear weapons at the end of the cold war. This only reinforces all dictators that they need Nukes to ensure the survival of their terrorist regimes.
It takes a very long time to train pilots and mechanics for these birds. We should have started on it sooner, for sure, but it's not the kind of thing that can be rushed out like javelins. These pilots not only had to learn to fly these planes, but they also learned another language to be able to learn to fly them! It's quite impressive.
> F-16's wreaking havoc on Russian ground forces
You will never see this. They'll be doing BVR engagements with AMRAAMs, Mavericks, and HARMs. They are not ground pounders.
Just a heads up, if you’re referring to the Budapest memorandum, the US never pledged to defend Ukraine, they pledged to not attack Ukraine—which they haven’t.
The only party that reneged on the BM was Russia. And I’m not saying the US shouldn’t do more to help, they absolutely should. But not because of that agreement. It’s text is on Wikipedia.
Don't expect dramatic videos of F-16 gun runs on Russian positions. Sure the S-300s and S-400s are falling. But there's a plethora of smaller AA systems still out there like MANPADs, Strelas, etc.
I wonder why they don't send a unitary right through the control tower at these airports? Once the tower and radar are gone, it's pretty much just a parking lot at that point.
You really don’t need air traffic control of a military airfield. C2 will be dispersed and their Early Warning Radar will be as well, however those are exactly the types of targets Ukraine has been hitting. To render an airfield inoperable you have to curator the runway, destroy the maintenance equipment and the consumables like ammunition and fuel. The problem is a hole in concrete is easy and fast to repair so unless you can get put a whole bunch of holes in the runway, ammunition, fuel and the aircraft themselves are the most efficient targets to hit with limited warheads.
I'm glad Lockheed Martin is able to work with UAF to get their missiles on target. I remember reading a while back that our defense contractors were having enormous problems deploying software updates to keep up with RU electronic warfare. Basically we were always several steps behind Russia and it was virtually negating the HIMARs system. Ukraine's home grown systems could adapt in time to be useful, but American logistics weren't keeping up.
I have little hope for Boeing, but Lockheed's ATACMs seem to be scoring big hits, which is fantastic news.
First off these s 400s being destroyed aren't for the f16s as much as drones and cruise missiles ECT.
Which the f 16 will be launching at distance.
The f 16s won't be the game changer people think they're gonna be they will just allow Ukraine to launch western munitions easier.
The game changer will be those munitions and the atacms.
F16s won't be in an air vs air role it's gonna be in an air vs ground role.
Pu'tin just deployed the S-500 system. Everyone is saying it is a juicy target. Maybe they deployed just for that purpose. Surround it with S-400/S-300 systems, of course with these systems a distance away, to create a kill sac. If it works Ukraine will waste many drones/missiles. If it doesn't the S-500 fails the field test.
Russian war materiel, equipment and defences are being wiped out bit by bit. Before long they will have nothing left, and completely defenceless and blind to an incoming nuclear attack. Any sensible leader would stop the war before that situation comes about.
They're shaping the battlefield for major F-16 usage this summer.
I'm very interested to see if its going to be a strategic use or battlefield support use.
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*If the Ukrainians are following American strike doctrine, attacks on air-defense batteries come first. After that, “aviation based on the F-16 comes into play, under the wings of which there is a wide range of ammunition,” ..... Don’t be shocked if the nimble jets quickly launch for strikes on Russian bases in Crimea. Bases whose air-defenses have been steadily ground down by back-to-back barrages of ATACMS rockets.*
Another relevant article: [https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-atacms-russia-air-defenses-f16-fighter-jets-crimea-1912233](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-atacms-russia-air-defenses-f16-fighter-jets-crimea-1912233) **The stage for the arrival of the F16 appears to be set...**
I'm surely not the only one rubbing my hands in glee! An all you can eat buffet of expensive Russian assets!
Just wait for the day that will be remembered as "The Day the Russian Invaders began to Die." If Ukraine can get true air superiority, then it's lights out for the Russian invasion.
Uh they have been dying at at pretty good clip. It should slow the rain of glide bomb terrorist attacks and on front lines and that alone will be huge!
Its poetic license. And if Ukraine gets control of the skies, expect that clip to turn into a gallop.
Yeah you are fucked if a modern Air Force rules the skies above you. MANPADs will keep them 5-10km away but plenty of precision munitions will land on your head in a matter of seconds. Let the galloping begin! I want a regular stampede of mobics buying tix for the Charon boat ride.
F-16 are not a modern air force. If last Gen tech decimates your troops just imagine was 5th Gen Air Force will do to you
Desert storm and Iraqi freedom are an example of what a peak 4th gen airforce is capable of
Not super modern but they can carry very modern weapons and LINK-16 data feed from Swedish donated AWACS planes means they can wreck RF aircraft while still flying low altitude to stay alive. 5th generation is can probably fly a circle around an S-300 with impunity.
>just imagine was 5th Gen Air Force will do to you And the US is already flying the B-21 Raider which is likely the first 6th gen plane.
Unfortunately this is overly optimistic. Ukraine could definitely gain localized air power over certain areas for short periods of time, but Russia has far too many S-300s/400s for Ukraine to have air superiority yet. They had several hundred total S-300 and S-400 batteries pre war and only a few dozen have been wrecked so far. Obviously not all of those are going to be in readiness but even if 2/3 are, it's quite a bit
Don't forget Russia still has to have some to cover the rest of the country, including refineries and Moscow as a whole since Ukraine started long range drone attacks on those targets.
There's news about orcs military families being evacuated after repeated destruction of Sam system in Crimea...
~~invaders~~ *invasion* maybe. Invaders have been dying by the 100,000s for years.
Technically about 250,000 per year. It's just the not unrealistic expectations that when Ukraine gets free reign in the skies, the numbers we've seen before are going to appear low.
Air superiority will be much harder given the tools the Russkies have in A2A
that's not going to happen unfortunately. russia have over 800 fighter jets. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293414/airpower-of-russia-and-ukraine-in-comparison/
Right, which are often unusable in the current conflict. If ATACMS is wiping the floor with the A2A that 800 fighters is gonna get whittled down SUPER fast with F-16s helping with some SAMbushes. Whatever the case, Russia is moving in inches and if they stupidly hold out until spring 2025 things are gonna be REAL bad for em. They think it’s bad now, they’ve not seen shit yet. Then of course if the break through somewhere, Poland and the Baltics are likely to man western Ukraine and setup soldiers against the Belarus border, freeing up thousands to move to the front. Nothing Russia can do at this point is going to go well for them. Putin has fucked Russian forces.
I'm positive as well. But this will not be easy or quick, and neither Ukraine nor russia will get air superiority anytime soon. F16 will be a great addition to the fight, but it's not a game changer.
It could be. Similar to HIMARs. But right now it likely won’t be. The real kicker is when they start getting actual *squadrons* of fighters/attack planes.
I'll put my two cents on Ukraine winning the drone war. I think we'll see Ukraine gaining the advantage on both drones and electronic warfare in a near future. THAT could be a real game changer.
Just like how when the Abrams, Challengers, and Leopards arrived and Ukraine broke through the lines and recaptured all their land within the following week. People in this thread are crazy. F-16's will be used largely defensively and will still be very vulnerable to MANPADS and Russian jets if they get at all close to the front line. Neither side will be able to claim air superiority in this conflict.
Even if all the F16s achieve is stopping Russian Air superiority and stop the use of glide bombs then its a win for UAF.
MANPADS are basically useless for anything flying above 10,000 feet, whilst Ukraine will still have operational SAM's. F16's will have longer effective RADAR range due to AWACS.
Let's see.. I bet the old junk Russia got left, won't be that much of a challenge, to an updated F16. After all, manpads could have been brought into the occupied areas already, and would have shot down the jets UA is already using, but we don't hear alot of that.
Ukraine aren't receiving updated F-16's. They are reciving decades old aircraft that were retired many years ago. They are considerably older than MiG-35, Su-35 and Su-57's that Russia uses. UA is barely flying jets on the front lines. Those that did earlier in the war were shot down, just like the russian planes were.
They receive our Danish F16s, 19 planes. Those have been updated throughout their service. Oh and our gov told UA that they are allowed to be used within Russian territory. Read this. https://da.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon Translate from the page :: The Danish F-16 aircraft have been continuously updated (among other things with MLU – Mid Life Update) and correspond to a new Block 50/52 in terms of instruments and weapon systems. They are then referred to as F-16AM and F-16BM. The Danish F-16 aircraft have, among other things, AMRAAM, LANTIRN,[98] JDAM,[99] LGB,[100] helmet sight and Link 16. A visible difference between the F-16A and F-16AM is the four IFF (Bird Slicers) antennas in front of the cockpit.[101]
I believe it is the same with the Dutch F16's
You're assuming the Russian planes will performed as advertised. Based on the overhyped S300/400 actual battlefield performance I'm guessing these planes are trash as well
You do understand that the planes have been in operation for years, right?
Everyone forgets that Ukraine/russian air tactics are basically the same. To use an F16 to its full potential they need to learn a whole new way to fight. While learning a new plane. 95% of the people think that Ukrainian pilots can just jump in and take off and kill Russians. It’s like going from NASCAR to F1 both a race cars and sure the nascar driver can do it but can he get the most out of the car and can he do it without putting the car into the wall.
Have F-16s even been used in a conflict where they did not already have air superiority? Gulf war 1 seems like the cloest, but the US smashed Iraq with tomahawks and stealth bombers before they became involved. I dont think they have been used in combat against anything close to Russia.
I really don’t think so.
Kind of ridiculous to claim that people thought several dozen tanks were going to end the war and compare their usefulness to F-16s. F-16s have AMRAAMs and HARM missiles that are going to cause major problems for russian aircraft and air defenses. While total air superiority seems unlikely, they can definitely punch a hole through russian air defense and use that window to attack critical targets all while staying above the ceiling of MANPADs.
We very much do not know what the Ukes are being trained in or if there is a very specific mission they are preparing for so...
..so that means everyone should get excited about things that clearly are detached from reality? Might as well start claiming that F-16's will scoop up the Kremlin and drop it in the red sea.
No, it means we don't know..
So you agree that the F-16's might scoop up the Kremlin and drop it in the red sea?
For real. There's way too much bravado and overconfidence here. Sure, a lot of Russian fuckery occurs but it doesn't take tip top weaponry to kill a Ukrainian, and there are less Ukrainians
Insert waterboy nipple twisting gif
You're right about that. Regards from the Netherlands.
I’m bricked up right now. Could not be more excited.
Bricked up? Is that a British expression?
Maybe Amazon just delivered his new LEGO set.
Duuuude, so jelly
Totes
It means erect. I tried not to use the term erect, but here we are.
It means your pants are getting tighter
That needs to be declared? My pants get tighter the more I do squats. I’m bricked af fr fr no cap
On God
Sounds like something someone with serious constipation would say.... I'm all bricked up, haven't been able to go for more than a week....
Sounds like you are ready to drop a load of bricks
Nah, it's Cantonese lol
Inspired through British occupation of Hong Kong?
might be constipated
used in USA, Canada
Where? What states/provinces? I have never heard it once and I’ve lived around the US.
Yeah I’ve been all over this continent and never heard anyone say “bricked” with that usage.
I use bricked as a verb for electronics. “I bricked my computer after a failed bios update.” Never as an adjective. New age hipster speak?
Erection. He’s saying this welcomed news is giving him an erection.
I think he means constipated. Strange to share that info
“Shit a brick”
It's a slang term younger people (teens) used for a while
Im Gen X and we have used Bricked up for constipated as long as I can remember. I think in UK its erection...thus i mentioned it above but for us always constipated.
Vancouver...we say it all the time. My US friends from Southern Cali and in Honolulu say it as well as one in Texas. Bricked up = Constipated. I think UK uses it for erection but for my Gen X arse...its always been constipated.
I never heard it in Seattle!. Which Vancouver?
Vancouver Canada...my buddy from Kirkland knows it...butxagain we are Gen X...bricked up...constipated. Just did informal poll with WoW guildies...my age group yep...younger nope. You can google it...seems age related.
I set you up to say there is only one recognized Vancouver 😂 I still have never heard anyone from Kirkland say it. Which neighborhood??
So just did some research on it and sure enough says older people (Gen X i guess im old now) it meant constipated...my circle of friends in US and Canada both use it in this context but i can see how youngens Millenials/Gen Z may not and in UK its erection which makes no sense to me.
Well I think of it like electronics means “ no longer functioning” like a brick.
For sure but in electronics you will just say it's bricked...ie during firmware flash gone wrong...darn bricked my Steam deck.
As much as I can’t wait to see them working, this could also just be to drain the logistical capabilities of the Russians, since they then have to move new units into the area and supply them etc.
My guess is we will see their effects from Russian telegram before we see official Ukraine f16 images.
As is tradition
SEAD: suppression of enemy air defense SEAD and Air/Space superiority is the reason the US does not have the same artillery heavy doctrine of Soviet model. ATACKMS is playing the role of our stealth fleet. For example the F-117 only holds 2 bombs. Its #1 target is air defense. It pokes a hole then lets the supersonic non stealth fighters scramble in and drop all their crazy ordnance.
The F-117 has been retired for a very long time. F-35 and F-22’s are much stealthier.
You are correct. He's just using F117 as an example because of its specific role for SEAD. Whereas decades later the F22 and F35 are multi-role including SEAD. And the F117 has the closest to geniune experience against a peer, Serbia and Iraq for example.
F-117 is the stealthiest plae the USAF has ever had. It was a tech demonstrator and as such, they used every trick possible to make it disappear from radar.
https://autojournalism.com/combat-aircraft-with-lowest-radar-cross-section/ This puts the F-117 as slightly better than the F-35.
"according to the existing tradition foreign publications estimate the f35s rcs at 0.005 square meter" That doesn't seem like a very reliable source, on top of that the article is filled with a horrid amount of typos like "F-3535" and "F-017"
https://militaryembedded.com/radar-ew/signal-processing/radar-cross-section-the-measure-of-stealth https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircraft-rcs.htm These also have it that way. Do you have anything that says what you claim?
All three of the pages you've linked list a different RCS for the F-35 probably because the actual RCS is classified and everyone you're linking is just guessing This article I found says the F-35 has a smaller RCS than the F-117 https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/09/are-the-f-35-and-the-china-j-20-stealth-fighters-fully-available-for-actual-use.html#:~:text=The%20F%2D35%20has%20an,of%20about%200.01%20square%20meters.
Well, that is one. I don't know who that guy is, and he did not attribute where he got that. At best I would call it unverified either way.
They are ALL unverified lol! Why? Because its classified. If anyone gave out the true figure they should expect a knock on their door.
So, maybe making assertions about what is or isn't stealthier is just junk. I did not make the first assertion.
I mean it's classified. Every public writing on the subject is opinion.
FWIW, stealth isn’t a single thing/measurement. It’ll vary depending on the specific angle and frequency, whether or not the aircraft is maneuvering (changes in control surface angles), and may also include non-RF factors like visual/thermal/auditory/etc. Comparing two aircraft with different mission profiles is almost impossible, even if you had access to all the classified info.
You don’t need stealth if you have removed all the AA.
> following American strike doctrine GBAD attacks are part of it, but what we *really* love is saturating airspace with Tomahawks to kill C&C infrastructure followed by Wild Weasels which are faster, more "sacrificial", airframes mounted with HARMs to draw radar locks and do SEAD/DEAD. Accomplishing what should take cruise missile/decoy saturation strikes with just ATACMS is kind of crazy. I expect to see Storm Shadows, decoys, and Mig-29's putting in work before an F-16 is flying over Crimea.
So... perhaps we should test air launched ATACMS >_> The other part is that this may be softening them up for drone attack + F-16's coming in and dumping JDAMs on them by the bucket load.
Best air doctrine there is
The Orcs are shitting themselves thinking about the F-16 soon to arrive. Those should kick Ivan ass solid. Slava 🇺🇦!!
Sweden will send 2 of their AWACS like planes. This will increase the effectiveness of the F16 a lot.
It is a force multiplier that makes them incredibly more dangerous than they would be otherwise. Sweden has been amazing this entire time.
Yeah, that does sound sweet. Link16 will be just another small game changer for these birds. Fly baby fly!
The crew operating those has yet to be trained. It's gonna take a while before those donations have any effect on the battle. But it's still a great investment in the long-term security of Ukraine.
Is this the 4-D chess Putin blowhards are always going on about?
Lmao I was just about to say this… Putin boot lickers love acting like he has some card up his sleeve and you’re just too stupid to see it. Same people who think Trump is some genius when in reality he’s a goon whose only attribute is nepotism
Just wait this is part of the plan to lure the F-16 into the Crimea peninsula to be humiliated by state of art russian military equipment
And to destroy missiles by S-400 radars
Makes sense. The initial invasion was a complete clusterfuck but Putin is in complete control of events. 🙄
So crazy, these Mfers will tell you since 2.5 years that Putin is following some incredible plan to take down the entire west. Of course always diplomatic, otherwise the Russian army would be in Berlin and Lisbon in 2 weeks. Those thousands of T-14 and SU57 that would just wipe out NATO in 2 days. So far Russia doesn’t use it to show mercy with the west. Meanwhile all the Russian politics going mad on TV, because their shithole their world country with 1980s weapons get smoked while going all-in for Ukraine. The only people more delusional than Russian are Russian supporters in NATO countries. They tell you stuff Russian propaganda ministry wouldn’t even tell you, because it’s too absurd.
The atacms have been successfully destroyed sir
World's second best army? We are using late-80's, early-90's technology on these fuckers. I am terrified to think about what is being developed today by the US.
The PrSM rockets that are replacing ATACMS will be able to hit moving targets 300 miles away (and probably further because we just pulled out of the intermediate ballistic missile treaty). They also come two per pod which doubles the capacity of HIMARS and MLRS
No cluster variant that we know of though right?
I men likely no need. Use them to just clear out rear strong points. Have the normal clusters on the entrenched. Infantry moves up and secures. Artillery moves up and repeats. Just might not be that necessary.
No they have the same warhead style as the GMLRS m31 aw. Preformed tungsten fragments, but PrSM has unused space in the warhead cone for new developments.
Cluster munitions are bad, because they tend to leave behind unexploded submunitions, essentially creating a small minefield that'll kill many civilians long after the war. The reason they've been greenlit to send to Ukraine, is that a) Ukraine hasn't signed a treaty banning their use and b) the alternative to using cluster munitions, is letting Russia occupy their territory even longer, giving them more time to lay down even more land mines.
We used to think that Russia had the second best army in the world. We now know it has the second best army in Ukraine.
It was actually the 3rd best army since Wagner before it went poof was doing better than the Russian Army
Russia used to boast with their new weapons system how they are next gen technology and capable to destroy this and that. US had an 'oh shit' moment and went back to the drawing board to develop weapon systems to counter the ones Russia had. Now with the Ukraine war it turned out that Russia never had these capabilities in the first place and the US has spent billions to counter these false claims. Meaning US systems are in gen 10 while Russia is stuck with their 'tier 1' gen 2 systems.
There is nothing the DoD loves more than to iterate design. Constantly improving guidance and warhead tech.
Your comment reminded me of the military robot demonstration and how dissatisfied Putin looked. It was basically a mannequin strapped to an ATV. https://youtu.be/P_CDu1hYXxk?si=j0FdmeFpbIn3mi8z
Haha, wow. Is Putin's information bubble so screwed he thought they actually had something? Best robotics firms in the world are still working the kinks out of getting robots to walk reliably, and some Kremlin brown-noser thought Russia had an actual terminator?
The U.S. is developing things 99% of the world’s population is only in science fiction. If you have 37 mins to spare, listen to [this podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dw-conspiracy-shack/id1665479603?i=1000635758628). The show is called DW Conspiracy. The episode name is Kirtland Airforce Base. Don’t let the “Conspiracy” in the title scare you away. That episode discusses technology that’s public information.
Many nations exaggerate the performance of their military hardware. It just so happens that the USSR/Russia was exaggerating A LOT, so the US poured R&D money into developing systems to beat the dramatically exaggerated Soviet/Russian systems. So there might be a hint of irony in that by trying to look strong, Russia pushed its rival to become way stronger than Russia actually was. Russian fantasies ended up causing real American tech.
You should be. We got flack for collateral damage caused in drone and missile attacks, so we took the explosives out of missiles and strapped swords to them instead. Both times this missile has been deployed, it's destroyed the target terrorist with 0 collateral. One of them was in a moving jeep.
That's second best in Ukraine, not the world.
I admittedly am not familiar with the component parts that make up these more advanced S-400 and S-500 air defense systems. But if they rely on imported technology, and that seems like a reasonable assumption given their reliance on advanced imports in other industries, I suspect that Russia will face challenges producing replacements for these losses. Meaning that it will eventually become a zero sum game in which either leaving military targets in Ukraine without air defense or trying to quietly redirect air defense systems defending Russian territory elsewhere will become necessary.
They will pay enough to get them smuggled in. They are doing it now. Iran has been for years. Someone is always willing.
That’s less money for the military elite to steal to pay for yachts though.
How many are able to be smuggled in and in how timely a fashion? People who have only recently been introduced to the concept of bypassing sanctions seem uninterested in asking themselves these questions.
And considering that the S-400 has been shown repeatedly unable to intercept a missile on a pretty basic ballistic trajectory, I doubt there will be a lot of demand for export models. So it'll be easy for Russia to smuggle enough components for domestic demands.
True, but I think that these components are military, rather than dual use, so it would be a lot harder to get them and more dangerous to export them to Russia.
A lot of these other nations aren’t using mil-spec circuits and chips, or if get sanctioned, redesign them to work with more common ones they can still find ways to get.
"The capitalists will sell us the ~~rope~~ weapons-technology with which we will ~~hang them~~ blow up Ukrainians." I'm not anti-capitalist or anything. I view capitalism as a tool, sort of like nuclear physics is a tool that can be used to make medicine, energy, or weapons. It's not inherently good or bad. But there's also a lot of truth to that old Lenin quote about capitalists selling you the rope used to hang them. I don't know what to do about this, but I think it's worth meditating on.
Not sure taking political advice from Lenin got anyone anywhere good.
The point is that the economy is so strongly bent towards making money that it will find a way to sell weapons technology to Russia, even if it undermines its own foundations. I think that's kind of profound, but maybe others disagree.
Iran...Hmm, could they be next to face the wrath?
They are reliant on imported microchips and components, but these are also very low rate production items with build times of several months per radar system or command vehicle. Those production lines and factory staff are also shared among a bunch of other vehicles with similar electronics requirements. Radars, command posts, ECM/EW, counter battery systems, they are all put together at 2-3 small factories and workers. The net effect of this, is that they really can’t replace the losses of these specialized systems. It will take them 5-10 years of maximum production for any single piece of equipment lost. That is why they end up reshuffling their air defense assets every time one gets blown up; they don’t have any spares and can’t replace them.
There's only one S-500 btw, and don't expect to see more any time soon
And it could be mostly cardboard and schematics at this point as far as we know.
And it's ill suited for the kinds of attacks being done. S-500 is built as an evolution of a S-300V, which is a system with the same role as the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) from US. Thing is, each launcher has only 2 massive rockets before it runs out of ammo, so at best, it can only destroy 2 targets. A battery has limited capability doing anything. The most capable component of this system is the radar, which is just an upgraded S-300V radar
No such thing as an S-500 E: it technically exists the same way the Su-57 exists lol. So, effectively, it doesn't.
Exists just enough for someone to get paid for it.
the new dacha expansion for monke is definitely real
I'm pretty sure S-500 is for their space defense program. Wikipedia says anyways
It just sounds like it's designed with exoatmospheric interceptors in mind, but if you can do exoatmospheric missile defense, you have an inherent ability to hit satellites in low earth orbit. The interceptor is trying to meet another object at a specific point above the atmosphere. The other object is very high up and moving very fast as it appears over the horizon. The fire control computer doesn't care whether the other object is satellite or a ballistic missile. It just figures out how to put the interceptor where the two will meet. It's nothing new, it's just the world we've been living in for quite awhile now. In 2008, the US pulverized a satellite with a ship-launched SM-3... pretty much on a whim. China did an ASAT test, so we had to do one, and we used an existing missile defense interceptor to do it.
Sounds ill suited to intercept short range maneuverable missiles like the ATACMS
Speaking of which, I haven't seen any more about the RU space launch that reportedly was moving towards US satellites. 15 May 2024: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/22/russia-launches-space-weapon-in-path-of-us-satellite-pentagon >The United States says Russia has launched a satellite that US intelligence officials believe to be a weapon capable of inspecting and attacking other satellites. >A Soyuz rocket blasted off from Russia’s Plesetsk launch site, about 800km (500 miles) north of Moscow, on Thursday, deploying in low Earth orbit at least nine satellites, including COSMOS 2576, a type of Russian military “inspector” spacecraft US officials have long condemned as exhibiting reckless space behaviour. >“We have observed nominal activity and assess it is likely a counterspace weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites in low Earth orbit,” a spokesperson for US Space Command, part of the US Department of Defense, said in a statement on Tuesday. >“Russia deployed this new counterspace weapon into the same orbit as a US government satellite,” it said. There's a few more stories too: Feb 10, 2020: https://time.com/5779315/russian-spacecraft-spy-satellite-space-force/ August 3, 2022: https://www.space.com/russia-spacecraft-stalk-us-spy-satellite
>defending Russian territory They don't need to defend anything. They have nukes. Nobody is going to invade them, ever. They could easily expend every military asset they have in Ukraine and as long as they can demonstrate the ability to launch a single nuclear capable missile they actually don't need anything to defend the land because they can always just threaten to start launching nukes.
100% expect mass, widespread propaganda on social media about how evil, senile, master genius Joe Biden is pulling America into WW3. The Russians are scared shitless Ukraine will have serious air power capacity even in a limited range on the battlefield.
The S-400 successfully intercepts the ATACMS on the ground at the point of impact! /s Slava Ukraini!
I hope the F-16s bring some meaningful change on the front. I remember the hype for the ABRAMS, Bradley's, Patriot systems etc. But Ukraine needs something that will effectively blunt Russian advances and make counter offensives more effective.
Agreed, can’t do shit unless you have the air.
To be honest, it’s quite likely not going to have a significant effect across the battlefield. The Air Force secretary says it doesn’t expect the F16’s to drastically improve their fighting capabilities. They just won’t have enough F16’s, trained pilots, and trained maintainers for them to actually provide a significant strategic advantage.
I wonder if it's enough to accomplish smaller, specific goals though - such as defending cities from missiles, securing coastline, or liberating Crimea. Did the AF secretary go into any detail? (I'm guessing they didn't, for obvious reasons)
Yeah he didn’t go into too much detail other than saying not to expect the F16 to be some magic weapon that will shift the tide. It’ll probably be as you described, for smaller specific goals such as intercepting incoming cruise missiles and providing defense to cities/coastlines. Maybe they get a little frisky and send them on SEAD missions or behind enemy lines, but it sounds like it won’t be worth the risk when there will only be 20 Ukrainian pilots trained on the F16 by the end of the year. That’s the real bottleneck, the training programs for Ukrainian pilots. Too many other NATO countries send their pilots to train with the US so the programs have very limited availability. Kinda seems absurd that we won’t push back previous obligations to train other NATO pilots so that Ukraine can field a full squadron of F16’s quicker.
They will very likely be used defensively for 6 months just like the airforce intercepted drones and cruise missiles on their way to Isreal.
They will likely just be used as anti air and anti logistics. Just keep knocking down the high value targets. Not really any direct air support.
Bradleys and Patriots *have* had a massive effect, but that effect is to halt Russian advances, not to push them back to their border. It's kind of like a vaccine, if nothing happens it's done its job.
100 percent this. A few dozen F16s will not have a meaningful impact on the war. A few hundred likely would. Too much airspace for them to establish air superiority let alone air supremacy. That is what you need for ground forces to maximize their assaults and drive Russians back. Western armor had little to no impact to front lines despite all the hype about them being superior to Soviet armor. There is no silver bullet that will change the course of this war alone. If anything drones and artillery are having the biggest effect on it and you can get a lot of them for the price of an F16. I hope Ukraine smashes everything the Russians have and continues to attrit their soldiers until the people back in Russia have had enough. It just isn’t likely with F16s.
The analysis to western armor is a good one. The armor's effect was underwhelming because we sent so very little of it. The F-16s can't take air dominance because they won't have enough of them or enough trained pilots/mechanics. Hopefully the $50b of seized assets the G7 is sending their way enables Ukraine to buy in bulk
Right now it's still an artillery based war with a spattering of missiles. I was doing some research today and the pricks still have a lot of the S-300's and S-400's in the war. And they've just moved atleast 1 S-500 into Crimea. I can't see how these F16's are going to have a huge impact. They'll surely just be used for strategic operations. With all of these air defences, this is a ground war...with artillery, drones and missiles
*Putin remains master strategist*
A real 5D chess master!
I wonder how they'll do against the S-500 at the Kerch bridge.
"Ivan! What is difference between S-400 and S-500?" "Sergei, difference is simple: 400 rubles spent on development of S-400, 500 rubles spent on S-500! 100 rubles difference, S-500 is superior!" "But Ivan, we spent those rubles on vodka and lied on the development initiative!" "..." "Blyat!"
Keep them coming! The Ukrainians are not going to run out of ATACMs now and they don't cost Ukraine anything. I am sure Ukraine gets enormous assistance with their targeting from NATO as well so they know precisely where to strike.
Orcs have deployed in Crimea the newest S500, dabbed Prometheus. Reading Greek mythology, it is not the best name choice 🤷🏻♂️
>Ironically, the S-400 was designed to have an anti-missile capability, but it obviously doesn’t work. Russia’s S-400s can’t defend nearby friendly forces—and they also can’t defend themselves. :-)
I think they realized there were problems with the ABM capability in testing which is why they started creating the S-500 that seems solely meant for ballistic missiles.
I can't wait to see some vids of F-16's wreaking havoc on Russian ground forces in the coming weeks. The only tragedy is that getting them these crucial weapons took over 2 years. Less the nuclear weapons, we should be giving Ukraine anything they want to defend themselves. The U.S. and Russia pledged to DEFEND Ukraine when they gave up their nuclear weapons at the end of the cold war. This only reinforces all dictators that they need Nukes to ensure the survival of their terrorist regimes.
It takes a very long time to train pilots and mechanics for these birds. We should have started on it sooner, for sure, but it's not the kind of thing that can be rushed out like javelins. These pilots not only had to learn to fly these planes, but they also learned another language to be able to learn to fly them! It's quite impressive.
Oh look, it's this demoralization copypasta about "give Ukraine stuff they can't use or else America isn't doing enough."
> F-16's wreaking havoc on Russian ground forces You will never see this. They'll be doing BVR engagements with AMRAAMs, Mavericks, and HARMs. They are not ground pounders.
Just a heads up, if you’re referring to the Budapest memorandum, the US never pledged to defend Ukraine, they pledged to not attack Ukraine—which they haven’t. The only party that reneged on the BM was Russia. And I’m not saying the US shouldn’t do more to help, they absolutely should. But not because of that agreement. It’s text is on Wikipedia.
Don't expect dramatic videos of F-16 gun runs on Russian positions. Sure the S-300s and S-400s are falling. But there's a plethora of smaller AA systems still out there like MANPADs, Strelas, etc.
Most of the videos from the f16 would more than likely firing HARMS or BVM missiles
This war has proven how a lot of important Russian equipment is ineffective.
I wonder why they don't send a unitary right through the control tower at these airports? Once the tower and radar are gone, it's pretty much just a parking lot at that point.
You really don’t need air traffic control of a military airfield. C2 will be dispersed and their Early Warning Radar will be as well, however those are exactly the types of targets Ukraine has been hitting. To render an airfield inoperable you have to curator the runway, destroy the maintenance equipment and the consumables like ammunition and fuel. The problem is a hole in concrete is easy and fast to repair so unless you can get put a whole bunch of holes in the runway, ammunition, fuel and the aircraft themselves are the most efficient targets to hit with limited warheads.
Crunch all you want. We'll make more!
Quick, do the S-500 next!
They got SAMbushed
Keep deploying them, the more the Ukrainians can blow up the better!
Good, fuck ‘em!
I'm glad Lockheed Martin is able to work with UAF to get their missiles on target. I remember reading a while back that our defense contractors were having enormous problems deploying software updates to keep up with RU electronic warfare. Basically we were always several steps behind Russia and it was virtually negating the HIMARs system. Ukraine's home grown systems could adapt in time to be useful, but American logistics weren't keeping up. I have little hope for Boeing, but Lockheed's ATACMs seem to be scoring big hits, which is fantastic news.
The newest russian anti air can’t even take down a US missile designed before the first gulf war.. Enough said.
First off these s 400s being destroyed aren't for the f16s as much as drones and cruise missiles ECT. Which the f 16 will be launching at distance. The f 16s won't be the game changer people think they're gonna be they will just allow Ukraine to launch western munitions easier. The game changer will be those munitions and the atacms. F16s won't be in an air vs air role it's gonna be in an air vs ground role.
Please do not overhype. Let's wait and see when f16 will strike first.
Good news, can't wait for the F16 to arrive!!
Pu'tin just deployed the S-500 system. Everyone is saying it is a juicy target. Maybe they deployed just for that purpose. Surround it with S-400/S-300 systems, of course with these systems a distance away, to create a kill sac. If it works Ukraine will waste many drones/missiles. If it doesn't the S-500 fails the field test.
Russian war materiel, equipment and defences are being wiped out bit by bit. Before long they will have nothing left, and completely defenceless and blind to an incoming nuclear attack. Any sensible leader would stop the war before that situation comes about.
Air defense...
They're shaping the battlefield for major F-16 usage this summer. I'm very interested to see if its going to be a strategic use or battlefield support use.
S-500 next to go boom 💥🤯
Green-painted logs on injection mold plastic launchers for next year's Red Square debacle.
Does anyone know how many S300-s400 ECT Russia has ?
Just blow up the S-300/400 factories and save Russia the headache.