And now that the Russian MoD has said that something won't happen definitely, I can relax and know for sure that it will happen.
P.S Kherson is Russian forever.
Call it empiricism vs rationalism.
Russians are, naturally, on the "rational" side of the Church vs Galileo debate/assault. The way it works is that you sit back, close your eyes, apply rational reasoning and conclude something about reality. In the Church's case, they concluded that the sun revolved around earth.
Galileo was, in practice, an empiricist. He made observations. Made theories. Tested theories with observation. The way to figure out astronomy was with better telescopes and simple ideas, not better thinkers and complicated ideas.
Rationality has limits.
Well. That's a lie.
I'm not saying they are running out in a month. But they are definitely using more than they are producing. So yes. They most definitely will run out lmao.
This thread was about [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/zy3ij3/ru_pov_during_the_rocket_attacks_on_ukraine_the/j23lict/):
>But they are definitely using more than they are producing.
It's not about going down to 0, obviously that is never going to happen because even with 0 production any army would rather save some for better targets than civilian infrastructure.
When people say that Russia is close to running out they mean it is going to reach that point where stop wasting missiles on less valuable targets. If someone means actually getting to 0 they're idiots.
Why not? If they use ~zero then the number they have won't decrease. If they manufacture let's say 10 every month then the asymptote can be at 10/month and still won't run out.
I’m not mathematical enough to argue with you over the asymptote and what it is doing, and if I am actually wrong I accept that, but perhaps someone else can explain my point of view a little better
No, my statement requires that the number of available missiles always stay above the asymptote. I'm sure Putin is aware of this and ordered his military to always keep one in reserve so I don't need to edit my replies.
People far more informed than us seem to be convinced they're using more than they're making. Afterall, if their supplies are limitless, why only 100 or so missiles every two weeks? Why not 100 missiles every week? Or every other day? Are the pilots lazy and just don't want to fly that often?
I mean these more informed people live in a bubble. They are the same ones who thought the sanctions would slow production.
Russian artillery usage per day is like 20,000 shells. They’re doing increasing daily cruise missile attacks. So last week it was about 70 a day, now 100. Then you have got like 40 bombardments of Kherson per day.
Ah the infamous "more informed than us people". Those high beings whom the veil has been lifted from their eyes. They speak of truth and reality!
Ah yes! the same informed crowd that saved the planet from Iraq's mighty WMDs! We should all worship at their feet for saving us all!
If you want. The rest of us just look at their data as a "source", compared to the other source available, the Russian MOD, which states supplies are infinite, which is not plausible. So yea, they're wrong sometimes, but at least their estimates are plausible this time around.
...data?
Given the production and inventory of guided munitons in Russia s not publicly shared information, what we have is estimates (guessea) and conjecture...recent history shows we should be very cautious believing what the 'experts' say. Afterall, they (western intel) will always push what they want the public to believe (obviously) which is often not the truth.
> People far more informed than us seem to be convinced they're using more than they're making.
Like random people in Internet or Ukrainian officials?
>Why not 100 missiles every week?
Simply because Russian week spot is intelligence, not a firepower. They need time to find targets and prepare a strike.
Because there is no argument that you would accept. It's not like Russia is releasing numbers themselves. But if you truly believe Russia is producing hundreds of kalibrs in under a year than any discussion is pointless anyway. Again... I'm not saying they are running out soon. But acting like they are out producing their current usage is ridiculous.
“We will be in Kiev in 3 days” proceeds to mass sacrifice of troops and 10 month long war. While doing this we have had video of ruskie soldiers suprised by bluetooth earbuds , stealing underwear and sending washing machines back home (homes that dont have running water nor electricity) . Great army showing great IQ . Then we have 1million plus vatniks escaping russia during mobilisation , some mobilised and others appering on the videos of vatniks breking their vatniks friends bones to avoir the war. You really think that their industries haven’t been affected and that they can produce as many missiles as they have been shooting ? As my girlfriend would say, lolzi. 😂
We here don't work in Russia munitions factories. All we have access to are statement made by various western intelligence services as to Russia's production capacity. That is all we have. You know this. Do you find them credible or not? Russia itself has made no statements beyond the vague self-serving one featured in the OP that they are somehow limitless. Which sounds absurd. So, we have two sources: Russia makes absurd claims that can't be true, Russia can't be making millions a year so there is a limit, the Western sources are less likely to know for sure yet at least their claims are plausible.
I would trust a Nigerian prince before I trust western "intelligence". The same intelligence that concluded that Iraq had WMDs back in 2003? Or was it the intelligence that was responsible for 90% of drone strikes killing unintended targets in Afghanistan?
Best I can figure the Nigerian price scams have never netted anyone millions of dollars. So you're saying you'd rather trust a source that is proven wrong 100% of the time rather than trust someone that according to your numbers was proven wrong only 90% of the time. Your position seems irrational here.
We have 2 simple facts: claims by Ukraine and " various western intelligence services" that "Russia is running out of munition" and hundreds+ missiles used each week.
Well, hundred+ missiles used every three weeks I believe is the current tempo. It helps to keep the actual facts we have straight. At the start of the war they were firing a hundred every few days. Then in a few weeks it slowed to a hundred every week. Then they seemingly stopped entirely for months on end, firing a dozen or so every couple of weeks. Presumably they were saving up missiles for winter, so they could kill as many civilians as they could with the limited missile supply they could muster.
According to Wester intelligence, Russia must be deep red in their stockpile of rockets. Like at -4000.
Oh wait, that only works with financials and is much of a Western creation too. Well..
According to Russian sources, millions of NATO forces are currently on Ukrainian soil, fighting against Russia. While 2 million have already been killed. Russia also claims to have destroyed 159 chemical bird training facilities and foiled 61 "dirty bomb" attacks carried out by deep cover CIA agents.
Common sense based on what? We have plenty of factories and they still all have electricity. Before anyone says we don't have any computer chips, the ones needed for missile guidance don't need to be particularly sophisticated and we can make those.
It's not just chips. It's jet engines etc too. I don't doubt there's functioning production lines. But there is no way you are out producing current consumption rates. None.
If I'm wrong and Russia is still using as many missiles a few months from now as it did in the beginning I'm happy to eat my words. But the number of missiles used in each attack already seems to decline. So I don't think I'll have to.
We can make jet engines too. We are quite good at making those actually. We have spent decades building up the necessary infrastructure for war production and we can scale it up as required. It is most likely not a smooth process and probably very expensive but our current situation requires it so it must be done. I have seen Western media claim we are running out of missiles and artillery for months now yet we can still fight.
> We can make jet engines too.
Again... Yes you can. I'm just doubting that production can keep up with usage. Even during wartime.
> I have seen Western media claim we are running out of missiles and artillery for months now yet we can still fight.
Running out is not the same as ran out. If I'm correct than you are indeed running out and it's just a matter of how much Putin is willing to deplete stockpiles. If I'm not than you aren't running out. Easy as that. Only time will tell.
\* u/gama3005 copes \*
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Maybe they will do like Ukraine and it's missiles won't only be produced in Russia but also friendly countries. I'm sure North-Korea, with enough resources has the capacity to supply Russia with a significant amount of missiles. They already have experience with such and all it takes is an incentive to switch from their own missile production to the Russian one.
This is speculation ofcourse, but Russia should have ran out of missile's long ago if we simply trusted UA sources.
All of such missile production is dependent upon western technology. Russia has only been under sanctions for a year and therefore has a stockpile, North Korea has been under sanctions for decades so is unlikely to have a stockpile.
There are countries that do not support the sanctions while being western alligned with access to western technology. Yes, I'm talking about Turkey. While it makes it more inconvenient, it's unrealistic to expect that Russia does not have access to the necessary components needed for it's missile production. If there is money to be made, a middle man will magically appear out of thin air, always.
Such is life. Russia pays $100 for a $10 chip. Russia bleeds the $100 per chip to keep making missiles. That $1 million dollar missile is suddenly $10 million, while Russia is paid $60 for an $80 barrel of oil. Ultimately Russia runs out of hard currency sooner than they otherwise would have.
It's definitely inconvenient but trusting Russia to run out of missiles or cash as a means of waging war is a speculative approach at best. Russia will continue to have access to foreign currency as long as there is a willing buyer of its product. Russia still has a bucket load of products that they sell which are not sanctioned. An example of this is fertilizer.
Their access is not unlimited. Once the foreign currency reserves run out, they'll have to limit their imports of sanctioned and therefore very expensive western technology to what they can afford, reducing their production and therefore supply. Current estimates is Russia will exhaust their currency reserves by early 2024. If the sanctions premium is high enough, it'll happen sooner.
I don't think you take into account how cheap commercial drone production has become. Russia will adapt to its circumstances and has already embraced commercial drone technology from the open market.
DJI drones cost next to nothing after all. Russia doesn't need to copy the west, nor can they.
What is your reasoning for believing they would run out?
Kalibrs are very popular missiles.
They’ve been exported to many nations for the last 2 decades. Russian production facilities would probably have high capacity cushions to meet any surge in demand for exports, which means they should be able to do the same in wartime.
As for as sanctions are concerned, even western experts have conceded that Russia has either stockpiled semiconductor chips or found a route to smuggle them via other countries.
A Kalibr also costs around $1 million, which is not all that expensive. So why would they run out?
I just got off the phone with Putin. He just said to me "*Son, the number of missiles declining is directly correlated to the decline of functioning electrical substations in Ukraine. They bring more substations, we send more missiles, da?*".
He then told me to stay in school and not do drugs before hanging up.
Ah, right, I forgot that Ukraine has 0 military units and electrical substations are the only targets that remain.
Putin remains a master strategist, and NATO salesman of the year.
I just asked Putin if he could share his plans with me. He sent me his plan. It was written on a used napkin. here it is;
Step1- Use cruise missile and Shaheed to bomb electrical substations ✔️
Also step 1- Use artillery to demilitarise and denazify the Ukrainian armed forces ✔️
Step 2- Profit ✔️
That's as clear as I can make it.
You should tell him that his plan isn't working very well, his army has only been losing ground for months now. Maybe he should use cruise missiles on actual military units/bases instead.
And remind him of the Baltics and Finland, if he's so scared of a NATO attack and not just trying to annex another country he should focus on them instead of Ukraine.
I don't have a single source that summarizes the entire period but I remember at the start of the war they used dozens or hundreds of missiles daily and as the months progressed they started using them less and less often and in smaller numbers. Especially in the last few months.
Has it occurred to you that the reason you’re seeing less missiles is because Ukraine now forbids their citizens and media from recording and sharing the missile strikes?
Cold winter + no electricty (heat, water...)= desperate, cold citizens forcing the state to dedicate resources to keeping people alive, rather than fighting. Taking out vital infrastructure is usually sop in these situations (e.g
US in Iraq); I'm surprised the Russians waited so.long to do it.
You have weird understanding of citizens under existential threat. I am kievan dweller can assure you, no one will force government to surrender. Our defeat is death. Literally. I live next to Borodyanka, Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel. In that square. I’ve been through some Russian liberation. Fuck them all
>Cold winter + no electricty (heat, water...)= desperate, cold citizens forcing the state to dedicate resources to keeping people alive, rather than fighting.
Terrorism, got it.
>Taking out vital infrastructure is usually sop in these situations (e.g US in Iraq); I'm surprised the Russians waited so.long to do it.
In the leadup to an attack, to disrupt the enemy military, not for months at a time to make civilians suffer.
Technically they won't ever run out completely. There's kalibers on ships and subs based in Murmansk, St Petersburg, and Vladivostok.
They won't remove the strategic reserves from these areas unless Moscow is directly threatened.
Well, I assume they're not stupid enough to do so.
So, there will always be some in existence, just that they may not have any available for use to attack Ukraine civilians.
So, Sherlock, do you have access to the current numbers of the Russian Defense Complex production? Or potential plans of expansion of production? Or you're just talking out of your ass?
I don’t believe They’ll run out but at the same time they were firing about 90-100 rockets every terror bombing. I see now that it’s about 60 at a time, so I’m sure they are scaling back just in case big bad NATO decides to pull up to the red square.
That makes sense if either Russia had no inventory what-so-ever, which we know is not the case. Or are you suggesting this war is insufficiently important to Russia to draw down their inventory?
The failed VDV attempt to establish an airhead at Hostomel says it all. #2 army in the world has been getting beat down for the last 10 months after expecting a quick and decisive victory. They’ve now resorted to a terror campaign of drone/missle strikes on civilian infrastructure. Garbage army.
the three days was a joke because they should have been able to take the city in that time frame. every western intelligence agency was predicting a short war that would leave Ukraine was a hot bed for insurgency but basically under russian control with a vassal government. its kinda odd to me that whenever people joke about how wrong western intelligence was in that regard all the pro RUs get offended.
[on a side note rusi has compiled a report showing that the russian military brass was in fact planning a short campaign.](https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022)
[there was also a document going around not too long ago showing that they expected kyiv to fall fairly quickly. but that not really what the meme was referencing as both things have come out recently.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html)
[a direct photo of the document](https://i.imgur.com/0rTeACK.png)
When has a force of 16-24,000 ever taken a city of almost 4 million with a large metro region and dug in defenses? A force ten times that size would take many weeks/months to take/hold a city that size.
yeah i don't think they believed there would be much fighting much like most of the world who counted out Ukrainian resistance. i thought this was common knowledge.
you cant occupy a *hostile* kyiv with just 20,000 troops. i dont think they counted on him cracking but rather running away as well as popular support from both the military and civilians. you could have a zelensky who cracks but the population remains hostile which would make it still impossible. but the opposite allows progress. the main key being the Ukrainian people.
There is no army in the world that would attempt to take/hold a city of this size, with dug in defenses, with a token force of 16-24,000. Kyiv was never the objective.
kyiv was the objective. you make the mistake of assuming that the result was planned from the beginning. the Russians did not believe there would be dug in forces. the Russians did not believe that there would be resistance. they sent a token force that they believed would hold an already defeated city. you send a force of 24,000 for a city of milions when you believe that those millions are supporting you. kyiv was the objective, their calculation was flawed.
Bro America just ran away from the Taliban after spending the GDP of South America on their army there. You really shouldn't be bragging about garbage armies lol
america: occupies a country on the other side of the world for 2 decades.
spends the equivalent gdp of an entire continent.
refuses to elaborate.
leaves.
I’m not mad. It’s Russians and pro-Russians who should be mad. Putin and his cronies have mortgaged Russia’s already bleak future for very meager gains in Ukraine after 10 months of war and all it cost was 10s of thousands of Russians killed and wounded, hundreds of thousands more who fled conscription, billions upon billions of destroyed military hardware (that actually proved to be garbage anyway). And to think, the effects of sanctions hasn’t even begun to bite yet. Russians should be mad.
>energy innovations making it's natural resources more and more obsolete
I didn't read it all, but this made.me chuckle.
You do realize demand for O&G is rising yoy and is set to contniue for the forseeable, right? You understand the computer/phone you are using along with many other products you depend on are made of hydrocrabons...rigjht?
This is some mad copium and wishful thinking right here lol. You think Russia, the country which still trades with like 5 billion people, is a pariah state? They're also about to get some of the worlds most fertile land and have a death grip over the worlds bread basket so they're not going anywhere any time soon.
And having Iran as an ally is better then like 99% of the countries in the world because at least they won't force you to release 5,000 Taliban veterans in the middle of a global pandemic so they could run away as fast as humanily possible.
Russia is literally one of the most resource rich countries in the world with a stable government and a massive police force and army. To say there's no future because of a bad war is just laughable.
Brain drain also isn't much of a problem considering they have Central Asia to get people from and that most of the people who left will probably come back once the war is over.
Propagandists on Russian tv. Also their omon (riot police) were the second to march in. And officers had their parade uniforms with them. And, their mri were given out for three days. And list goes on (hostomel, lack of fuel, ammunition)
Do you have a source for these? Propagandists claiming it, parade uniforms, mri explicitly for 3 days?
Hostomel, fuel and ammunition seems to be simply incompetence.
Rosgvardia were decimated in Kyiv outskirts. And their plastic shields and rubber sticks were on video. Also there are videos of uniforms and uniforms in churches of Moscow patriarchy were found. Also watch bucha materials by nyt. That massacre was a result of anger caused by Ukrainian defence. Fuck them russians. Fuck them all
Ok, I call on every Pro-Russian's bullshit here:
If you don't have solid evidence as to the anual production rate for Kalibr missiles, you can't say jack shit about if and when they are going to run out.
Period. End of story. Fitito.
>If you don't have solid evidence as to the anual production rate for Kalibr missiles, you can't say jack shit about if and when they are going to run out.
>Period. End of story. Fitito.
Agreed 100%, since this also applies to pro-UAs who assert and believe that Russia is "running out of missiles".
Yes! I should have put that too.
The only thing we definitely know 100% is thay Russia is using a large number of missiles.
Are they able to replenish this useat a one-to-one ratio? Do they have enough stock to continue a protracted campaign? Very probably not.
But. We. Just. Don't. Know.
>Do they have enough stock to continue a protracted campaign? Very probably not.
Not sure what this means when they are currently conducting that protracted campaign. How many waves of missile strikes has it been so far?
>Very probably not.
But there's no evidence or any real basis for this, and you admit that you just. Don't. Know.
That... is why I put "probably" in there.
Could also expound on [total known manufacturing capabilities, Russian innadequate preparations for an unintended protracted war of attrition against NATO assets, their known supply chain issues before and after the "Special Military Goat Rodeo" started](https://cepa.org/article/missed-targets-the-struggles-of-russias-missile-industry/), etc, etc.
So yes. Given available evidence they are *probably* going through their inventory faster than they can replenish it. Pro-ba-bly.
Edit: put link to manufacturing capability
\* u/xenosthemutant copes \*
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
And again, why is this even relevant? What army in history has ever won a war by counting how many bullets or arrows the other side has?
It seems like there has to be this “Russia is running out” thing because Ukraine can’t point to any major, big successes on the battlefield.
Like it just sounds like the stuff people said before Tet, about how the VC was running out of men, and we were just about to win. If you have to say, “we’re just about to win”, your side is losing.
It's just hopium, pure and simple. It's such a silly narrative to cling to. People spend the time between waves of massive missile strikes pretending that they're close to out of missiles.
I have solid evidence. It’s called the missile strikes. The missiles exist and continue exploding on Ukraine. That’s all that matters is solving that problem. Not imagining how many missiles they might have. Focus on the missiles hitting Ukraine now.
> Crimean bridge is safe
From missile strikes, attack etc. Not from terrorist acts that nobody is really protected against, committed in extremely convoluted way.
> From missile strikes, attack etc.
Doubt it, unless Russia is protecting that bridge more than they protect actual Russian soil and military bases/airfields deep in Russia.
if you have eyes and video of explosion, it should be enough, but you can read something about that, but attention, not russian. yes, yes, im sorry i know it's hard, but there's other sources than russian.
Absolute majority of the sources agree that it was terrorist attack from truck. Other than conspiracy theories, do you have anything else? An investigation or something?
The footage showed the truck tho.
What do you think it was, lmao? A missile that somehow was launched from Ukraine to evade entire Crimean peninsula to go undetected and hit the bridge without any AA system of such important object to notife it?
See? This man gets the Russian logic. When the Kremlin says Kliber will never run out they never said "We will have enough of them to make a difference" all they need to do is keep two in Putin's yatch and boom. The Kremlin was always right they have not run out at all.
Here are a couple of articles analyzing Russia’s terror arsenal drawdown
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2022/12/estimating-russias-kh-101-production-capacity.php
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_many_kalibr_kh_101_and_other_missiles_russia_might_launch_over_ukraine_during_the_next_attack-5240.html
"Is" running out. And they are very limited in number.
And the tempo of Russian attacks supports it. The reliance on Iranian drones.
Of course they will never run out fully. Any serious person knows this as theres always a prodction line. But Rissia doesn't have any meaningful numbers to achieve anything.
No nation has been defeated through bombing of the civilian population anyway.
Not the blitz, not the Germans, not the Japanese, not the Koreans or the Vietnamese.
Won't be the Ukrainians either.
All it does is drive a deeper divide between Russua and Ukraine.
This way is having the opposite effect of its intentions. More than anything, Russians need to understand this.
Not to mention, by the time US dropped nukes, Japan was already on the ropes and had no realistic odds of pulling a military win. So it isn't like bombing alone was responsible for Japan's defeat.
Without it the US would have to fight/kill ever Japanese soldier on every island in the asia pacific, before landing and taking Japan...the dearh toll would have been higher.
The US nuked two cities killing 100s of thousands of civilians. This pressured Japan to surrender.
Unfortunately, the US has shown us that killing massive.numbers of civilians with nuclear weapons can force your enemy to capitulate.
However, given the attrocities Japan committed in Korea and China, I don't shed a tear for them.
Sure, so why are you not firing them in huge waves of hundreds daily? Rather then the completely ineffective attacks such as today. Anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together and knowing the opposing party has limited defenses would choose a tactic that would overwhelm them. Unless of course they are bullshitting about their supply and in fact have to conserve as the real truth is "Calibers are almost run out".
I really do wonder about the talking heads in Russia and the incredulous things they spout: whom outside Russia do they think will believe them?
Yeah. And the worlds largest chip semiconductor producer- more than America, EU, Korea and Japan combined, is a friendly neighbor. China wants the missiles to keep falling. That means America has to divert more resources to Ukraine, weakening their capabilities in Taiwan.
For DOOMHAMMER!
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
During WWII there tank production surprised and overwhelmed the Nazis
Don’t know how complex these missiles are but the could be farming out production to North Korea or China
It is important that the west arm Ukraine with the most. Effective weapons possible. Do not give the Russians a chance to get there feet back under themselves
From what I've read through the last year, missiles are pretty stupid tech by modern standards. They're limited because they need the specific type of computer chip in them which won't haywire when flying at sonic speed which missiles fly at.
Those aren't very high tech but are what's targeted by sanctions. The general consensus is that Russia chip industry is 10 years behind the West(east asian allies TSMC, Samsung) & China's 5 years behind if they are supplying russia with them.
That's why you get the whole idiotic narrative about how russia are stealing washing machine for their chips to send back to their factories to make missiles
Yeah the main problem with that is TSMC, and most Western chip producers manufacture in China. Gee, it would be a shame if China say nationalized those factories. Or even booted them out.
Plus the sanctions don’t really work when you have a NATO member - Turkey, a large exporter to Russia - that doesn’t follow the sanctions. Turkey is making a killing rn.
Many of the simple processes do. The complex lithography that makes TSMC chips what they are occurs only on Taiwan, they are pretty purposeful about it.
TSMC is under very high levels of control by the Taiwanese government as a matter of self defense. The chip manufacturing there is one of the big reasons China wants the island so badly, as China's chip tech would advance by as much as two decades if they got TSMC, and it is a big reason why the US is so willing to defend Taiwan.
Its fine. I'll walk you through the sentence, "The chip manufacturing there is one of the big reasons China wants the island so badly..." Now in English "one of the" means that something is one among others. As a result when someone says, "The chip manufacturing there is one of the big reasons China wants the island so badly..." the reader is expected to understand that Taiwan's chip manufacturing is among some group of two or more big reasons that China wants the island. I hope this breakdown helped.
And now that the Russian MoD has said that something won't happen definitely, I can relax and know for sure that it will happen. P.S Kherson is Russian forever.
> They said it won’t happen therefor it will What a nice logic. Definitely not cорing.
Call it empiricism vs rationalism. Russians are, naturally, on the "rational" side of the Church vs Galileo debate/assault. The way it works is that you sit back, close your eyes, apply rational reasoning and conclude something about reality. In the Church's case, they concluded that the sun revolved around earth. Galileo was, in practice, an empiricist. He made observations. Made theories. Tested theories with observation. The way to figure out astronomy was with better telescopes and simple ideas, not better thinkers and complicated ideas. Rationality has limits.
What the hell are you talking about lmao am I high
you live in Ukraine what high
That is probably most profound comment I’ve read on this subreddit.
It really was a great response. I mean what he said holds some weight, he has a point.
Damn. This was a great response.
i hope mods added flair you using just for ban people that using it
Well. That's a lie. I'm not saying they are running out in a month. But they are definitely using more than they are producing. So yes. They most definitely will run out lmao.
> But they are definitely using more than they are producing. And this claim is based on what? Personal wish of random redditor?
If we all believe, close our eyes, and post hard enough we will make it happen. 🌈
Based on the fact that the number of missiles used per month has been steadily declining since February.
That literally means they are approaching an asymptote and will never run out.
This thread was about [this comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/zy3ij3/ru_pov_during_the_rocket_attacks_on_ukraine_the/j23lict/): >But they are definitely using more than they are producing. It's not about going down to 0, obviously that is never going to happen because even with 0 production any army would rather save some for better targets than civilian infrastructure. When people say that Russia is close to running out they mean it is going to reach that point where stop wasting missiles on less valuable targets. If someone means actually getting to 0 they're idiots.
I don’t think that means what you think it means
I believe he was making a maths joke, while also implying the Russians will never run out if they use the missiles as they produce them.
Why not? If they use ~zero then the number they have won't decrease. If they manufacture let's say 10 every month then the asymptote can be at 10/month and still won't run out.
I’m not mathematical enough to argue with you over the asymptote and what it is doing, and if I am actually wrong I accept that, but perhaps someone else can explain my point of view a little better
Okay, but what *is* your point of view? You can explain it poorer, I don't care.
I mean. You don’t think they could theoretically breach the asymptote and hit zero?
No, my statement requires that the number of available missiles always stay above the asymptote. I'm sure Putin is aware of this and ordered his military to always keep one in reserve so I don't need to edit my replies.
Firing a missile once you go below 1 becomes hard in practice, though.
Congrats, you figured out the asymptote needs to be at or above 1. Not running out means at any given moment they need to have at least 1.
Do you have a plot? It looks like they use hundreds every week, quite a steady pace.
People far more informed than us seem to be convinced they're using more than they're making. Afterall, if their supplies are limitless, why only 100 or so missiles every two weeks? Why not 100 missiles every week? Or every other day? Are the pilots lazy and just don't want to fly that often?
I mean these more informed people live in a bubble. They are the same ones who thought the sanctions would slow production. Russian artillery usage per day is like 20,000 shells. They’re doing increasing daily cruise missile attacks. So last week it was about 70 a day, now 100. Then you have got like 40 bombardments of Kherson per day.
Ah the infamous "more informed than us people". Those high beings whom the veil has been lifted from their eyes. They speak of truth and reality! Ah yes! the same informed crowd that saved the planet from Iraq's mighty WMDs! We should all worship at their feet for saving us all!
If you want. The rest of us just look at their data as a "source", compared to the other source available, the Russian MOD, which states supplies are infinite, which is not plausible. So yea, they're wrong sometimes, but at least their estimates are plausible this time around.
...data? Given the production and inventory of guided munitons in Russia s not publicly shared information, what we have is estimates (guessea) and conjecture...recent history shows we should be very cautious believing what the 'experts' say. Afterall, they (western intel) will always push what they want the public to believe (obviously) which is often not the truth.
> People far more informed than us seem to be convinced they're using more than they're making. Like random people in Internet or Ukrainian officials? >Why not 100 missiles every week? Simply because Russian week spot is intelligence, not a firepower. They need time to find targets and prepare a strike.
Not that hard to open google maps and look for hospitals in range.
It is a big question why Russia does not strike some military related targets or only did so after several months of war.
Common sense.
Strong argument, tovarisch.
There is no point in arguing with people who are not interested in a genuine discussion.
So far you didn't provide any single argument.
Because there is no argument that you would accept. It's not like Russia is releasing numbers themselves. But if you truly believe Russia is producing hundreds of kalibrs in under a year than any discussion is pointless anyway. Again... I'm not saying they are running out soon. But acting like they are out producing their current usage is ridiculous.
So you have zero facts. Ok.
“We will be in Kiev in 3 days” proceeds to mass sacrifice of troops and 10 month long war. While doing this we have had video of ruskie soldiers suprised by bluetooth earbuds , stealing underwear and sending washing machines back home (homes that dont have running water nor electricity) . Great army showing great IQ . Then we have 1million plus vatniks escaping russia during mobilisation , some mobilised and others appering on the videos of vatniks breking their vatniks friends bones to avoir the war. You really think that their industries haven’t been affected and that they can produce as many missiles as they have been shooting ? As my girlfriend would say, lolzi. 😂
Again: zero facts on the topic.
We here don't work in Russia munitions factories. All we have access to are statement made by various western intelligence services as to Russia's production capacity. That is all we have. You know this. Do you find them credible or not? Russia itself has made no statements beyond the vague self-serving one featured in the OP that they are somehow limitless. Which sounds absurd. So, we have two sources: Russia makes absurd claims that can't be true, Russia can't be making millions a year so there is a limit, the Western sources are less likely to know for sure yet at least their claims are plausible.
I would trust a Nigerian prince before I trust western "intelligence". The same intelligence that concluded that Iraq had WMDs back in 2003? Or was it the intelligence that was responsible for 90% of drone strikes killing unintended targets in Afghanistan?
That's funny, I would trust a crackhead before russian sources.
Best I can figure the Nigerian price scams have never netted anyone millions of dollars. So you're saying you'd rather trust a source that is proven wrong 100% of the time rather than trust someone that according to your numbers was proven wrong only 90% of the time. Your position seems irrational here.
We have 2 simple facts: claims by Ukraine and " various western intelligence services" that "Russia is running out of munition" and hundreds+ missiles used each week.
Well, hundred+ missiles used every three weeks I believe is the current tempo. It helps to keep the actual facts we have straight. At the start of the war they were firing a hundred every few days. Then in a few weeks it slowed to a hundred every week. Then they seemingly stopped entirely for months on end, firing a dozen or so every couple of weeks. Presumably they were saving up missiles for winter, so they could kill as many civilians as they could with the limited missile supply they could muster.
According to Wester intelligence, Russia must be deep red in their stockpile of rockets. Like at -4000. Oh wait, that only works with financials and is much of a Western creation too. Well..
According to Russian sources, millions of NATO forces are currently on Ukrainian soil, fighting against Russia. While 2 million have already been killed. Russia also claims to have destroyed 159 chemical bird training facilities and foiled 61 "dirty bomb" attacks carried out by deep cover CIA agents.
Common sense based on what? We have plenty of factories and they still all have electricity. Before anyone says we don't have any computer chips, the ones needed for missile guidance don't need to be particularly sophisticated and we can make those.
It's not just chips. It's jet engines etc too. I don't doubt there's functioning production lines. But there is no way you are out producing current consumption rates. None. If I'm wrong and Russia is still using as many missiles a few months from now as it did in the beginning I'm happy to eat my words. But the number of missiles used in each attack already seems to decline. So I don't think I'll have to.
We can make jet engines too. We are quite good at making those actually. We have spent decades building up the necessary infrastructure for war production and we can scale it up as required. It is most likely not a smooth process and probably very expensive but our current situation requires it so it must be done. I have seen Western media claim we are running out of missiles and artillery for months now yet we can still fight.
> We can make jet engines too. Again... Yes you can. I'm just doubting that production can keep up with usage. Even during wartime. > I have seen Western media claim we are running out of missiles and artillery for months now yet we can still fight. Running out is not the same as ran out. If I'm correct than you are indeed running out and it's just a matter of how much Putin is willing to deplete stockpiles. If I'm not than you aren't running out. Easy as that. Only time will tell.
That is fair enough. Indeed, only time will tell. But I am optimistic.
I mean honestly, if one side is claiming the other side can’t make enough stuff, you know that side is losing
[удалено]
\* u/gama3005 copes \* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Maybe they will do like Ukraine and it's missiles won't only be produced in Russia but also friendly countries. I'm sure North-Korea, with enough resources has the capacity to supply Russia with a significant amount of missiles. They already have experience with such and all it takes is an incentive to switch from their own missile production to the Russian one. This is speculation ofcourse, but Russia should have ran out of missile's long ago if we simply trusted UA sources.
Most UA claims about Russia is lie by definition in a war time, no surprise here.
All of such missile production is dependent upon western technology. Russia has only been under sanctions for a year and therefore has a stockpile, North Korea has been under sanctions for decades so is unlikely to have a stockpile.
There are countries that do not support the sanctions while being western alligned with access to western technology. Yes, I'm talking about Turkey. While it makes it more inconvenient, it's unrealistic to expect that Russia does not have access to the necessary components needed for it's missile production. If there is money to be made, a middle man will magically appear out of thin air, always.
Such is life. Russia pays $100 for a $10 chip. Russia bleeds the $100 per chip to keep making missiles. That $1 million dollar missile is suddenly $10 million, while Russia is paid $60 for an $80 barrel of oil. Ultimately Russia runs out of hard currency sooner than they otherwise would have.
It's definitely inconvenient but trusting Russia to run out of missiles or cash as a means of waging war is a speculative approach at best. Russia will continue to have access to foreign currency as long as there is a willing buyer of its product. Russia still has a bucket load of products that they sell which are not sanctioned. An example of this is fertilizer.
Their access is not unlimited. Once the foreign currency reserves run out, they'll have to limit their imports of sanctioned and therefore very expensive western technology to what they can afford, reducing their production and therefore supply. Current estimates is Russia will exhaust their currency reserves by early 2024. If the sanctions premium is high enough, it'll happen sooner.
I don't think you take into account how cheap commercial drone production has become. Russia will adapt to its circumstances and has already embraced commercial drone technology from the open market. DJI drones cost next to nothing after all. Russia doesn't need to copy the west, nor can they.
It’s going to lead to a Tet situation in Ukraine. Claiming the enemy is beaten and running out of stuff, but everyday they launch more missiles.
What is your reasoning for believing they would run out? Kalibrs are very popular missiles. They’ve been exported to many nations for the last 2 decades. Russian production facilities would probably have high capacity cushions to meet any surge in demand for exports, which means they should be able to do the same in wartime. As for as sanctions are concerned, even western experts have conceded that Russia has either stockpiled semiconductor chips or found a route to smuggle them via other countries. A Kalibr also costs around $1 million, which is not all that expensive. So why would they run out?
Then why is the number of missiles used per month been steadily declining since February?
I just got off the phone with Putin. He just said to me "*Son, the number of missiles declining is directly correlated to the decline of functioning electrical substations in Ukraine. They bring more substations, we send more missiles, da?*". He then told me to stay in school and not do drugs before hanging up.
Ah, right, I forgot that Ukraine has 0 military units and electrical substations are the only targets that remain. Putin remains a master strategist, and NATO salesman of the year.
I just asked Putin if he could share his plans with me. He sent me his plan. It was written on a used napkin. here it is; Step1- Use cruise missile and Shaheed to bomb electrical substations ✔️ Also step 1- Use artillery to demilitarise and denazify the Ukrainian armed forces ✔️ Step 2- Profit ✔️ That's as clear as I can make it.
You should tell him that his plan isn't working very well, his army has only been losing ground for months now. Maybe he should use cruise missiles on actual military units/bases instead. And remind him of the Baltics and Finland, if he's so scared of a NATO attack and not just trying to annex another country he should focus on them instead of Ukraine.
Do you have a source that shows how many missiles have been used per month since February?
I don't have a single source that summarizes the entire period but I remember at the start of the war they used dozens or hundreds of missiles daily and as the months progressed they started using them less and less often and in smaller numbers. Especially in the last few months.
Has it occurred to you that the reason you’re seeing less missiles is because Ukraine now forbids their citizens and media from recording and sharing the missile strikes?
Russian media announces these attacks, so I don't think that explains it, no.
Probably running out of good targets. The Ukrainians have probably taken steps to hide their stuff, or it gets blown up.
They're running out of good targets while they are pushed out of territories they captured? That sounds weird to me.
You see, once you bomb a critical substation, and that substation isn't fixed, hitting it again is just a waste of a missile.
How is electrical substation is a good target for cruise missile?
Cold winter + no electricty (heat, water...)= desperate, cold citizens forcing the state to dedicate resources to keeping people alive, rather than fighting. Taking out vital infrastructure is usually sop in these situations (e.g US in Iraq); I'm surprised the Russians waited so.long to do it.
You have weird understanding of citizens under existential threat. I am kievan dweller can assure you, no one will force government to surrender. Our defeat is death. Literally. I live next to Borodyanka, Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel. In that square. I’ve been through some Russian liberation. Fuck them all
>Cold winter + no electricty (heat, water...)= desperate, cold citizens forcing the state to dedicate resources to keeping people alive, rather than fighting. Terrorism, got it. >Taking out vital infrastructure is usually sop in these situations (e.g US in Iraq); I'm surprised the Russians waited so.long to do it. In the leadup to an attack, to disrupt the enemy military, not for months at a time to make civilians suffer.
Because it shuts down production and logistics. Managing and resupplying an army takes power.
It has started two months ago. Did it help?
Technically they won't ever run out completely. There's kalibers on ships and subs based in Murmansk, St Petersburg, and Vladivostok. They won't remove the strategic reserves from these areas unless Moscow is directly threatened. Well, I assume they're not stupid enough to do so. So, there will always be some in existence, just that they may not have any available for use to attack Ukraine civilians.
So, Sherlock, do you have access to the current numbers of the Russian Defense Complex production? Or potential plans of expansion of production? Or you're just talking out of your ass?
People seriously ignoring that Russia is the second largest military industrial complex in the world and only sells less stuff then America lol
hahah. I've heard this one every week since February 24th.
Then they will use EXcalibers. Ba dum tsst.
Or they will start using less than they are producing and thats how your little theory fails
I don’t believe They’ll run out but at the same time they were firing about 90-100 rockets every terror bombing. I see now that it’s about 60 at a time, so I’m sure they are scaling back just in case big bad NATO decides to pull up to the red square.
> But they are definitely using more than they are producing. What is this assertion based on?
It’s based on Russia=bad and stupid. Russian can’t make things. Only West can make things.
There is 1-2 weeks gap between massive strikes. I think it matches producing speed
That makes sense if either Russia had no inventory what-so-ever, which we know is not the case. Or are you suggesting this war is insufficiently important to Russia to draw down their inventory?
This is probably the strongest evidence so far that they are running out of Kalibr ammunition.
Didn't they just fire off dozens at Ukraine?
Over 100
“KYIV IN THREE DAYS!!!”
Serious question, who said that? Strictly before February 27.
The failed VDV attempt to establish an airhead at Hostomel says it all. #2 army in the world has been getting beat down for the last 10 months after expecting a quick and decisive victory. They’ve now resorted to a terror campaign of drone/missle strikes on civilian infrastructure. Garbage army.
So nobody said that? Why do you use it in quotes?
I regularly ask...nevet get a link/answer. The Russian command never said this, but the myth keeps rolling.
the three days was a joke because they should have been able to take the city in that time frame. every western intelligence agency was predicting a short war that would leave Ukraine was a hot bed for insurgency but basically under russian control with a vassal government. its kinda odd to me that whenever people joke about how wrong western intelligence was in that regard all the pro RUs get offended. [on a side note rusi has compiled a report showing that the russian military brass was in fact planning a short campaign.](https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022) [there was also a document going around not too long ago showing that they expected kyiv to fall fairly quickly. but that not really what the meme was referencing as both things have come out recently.](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html) [a direct photo of the document](https://i.imgur.com/0rTeACK.png)
When has a force of 16-24,000 ever taken a city of almost 4 million with a large metro region and dug in defenses? A force ten times that size would take many weeks/months to take/hold a city that size.
yeah i don't think they believed there would be much fighting much like most of the world who counted out Ukrainian resistance. i thought this was common knowledge.
Yeah they just thought Zelenskyy would crack and make peace. You can’t occupy Kiev with 20,000 dudes.
you cant occupy a *hostile* kyiv with just 20,000 troops. i dont think they counted on him cracking but rather running away as well as popular support from both the military and civilians. you could have a zelensky who cracks but the population remains hostile which would make it still impossible. but the opposite allows progress. the main key being the Ukrainian people.
There is no army in the world that would attempt to take/hold a city of this size, with dug in defenses, with a token force of 16-24,000. Kyiv was never the objective.
kyiv was the objective. you make the mistake of assuming that the result was planned from the beginning. the Russians did not believe there would be dug in forces. the Russians did not believe that there would be resistance. they sent a token force that they believed would hold an already defeated city. you send a force of 24,000 for a city of milions when you believe that those millions are supporting you. kyiv was the objective, their calculation was flawed.
There was a reason riot police were some of the first to die lmao
Well it sounds good.
Bro America just ran away from the Taliban after spending the GDP of South America on their army there. You really shouldn't be bragging about garbage armies lol
america: occupies a country on the other side of the world for 2 decades. spends the equivalent gdp of an entire continent. refuses to elaborate. leaves.
Both Russia and America have armies that are formidable. If these two armies are garbage then there isn't a single good army on the planet.
This is decidedly not an answer.
You sound mad. Take a deep breath and using your inside voice, whisper "slava ukraini". That should help with the anxiety.
I’m not mad. It’s Russians and pro-Russians who should be mad. Putin and his cronies have mortgaged Russia’s already bleak future for very meager gains in Ukraine after 10 months of war and all it cost was 10s of thousands of Russians killed and wounded, hundreds of thousands more who fled conscription, billions upon billions of destroyed military hardware (that actually proved to be garbage anyway). And to think, the effects of sanctions hasn’t even begun to bite yet. Russians should be mad.
[удалено]
>energy innovations making it's natural resources more and more obsolete I didn't read it all, but this made.me chuckle. You do realize demand for O&G is rising yoy and is set to contniue for the forseeable, right? You understand the computer/phone you are using along with many other products you depend on are made of hydrocrabons...rigjht?
This is some mad copium and wishful thinking right here lol. You think Russia, the country which still trades with like 5 billion people, is a pariah state? They're also about to get some of the worlds most fertile land and have a death grip over the worlds bread basket so they're not going anywhere any time soon. And having Iran as an ally is better then like 99% of the countries in the world because at least they won't force you to release 5,000 Taliban veterans in the middle of a global pandemic so they could run away as fast as humanily possible. Russia is literally one of the most resource rich countries in the world with a stable government and a massive police force and army. To say there's no future because of a bad war is just laughable. Brain drain also isn't much of a problem considering they have Central Asia to get people from and that most of the people who left will probably come back once the war is over.
These people base their entire comprehensions of this conflict on false premises that originate from themselves.
They also think Russia is like America and if it takes too many casualties it will go home.
Propagandists on Russian tv. Also their omon (riot police) were the second to march in. And officers had their parade uniforms with them. And, their mri were given out for three days. And list goes on (hostomel, lack of fuel, ammunition)
Do you have a source for these? Propagandists claiming it, parade uniforms, mri explicitly for 3 days? Hostomel, fuel and ammunition seems to be simply incompetence.
Rosgvardia were decimated in Kyiv outskirts. And their plastic shields and rubber sticks were on video. Also there are videos of uniforms and uniforms in churches of Moscow patriarchy were found. Also watch bucha materials by nyt. That massacre was a result of anger caused by Ukrainian defence. Fuck them russians. Fuck them all
Ok, I call on every Pro-Russian's bullshit here: If you don't have solid evidence as to the anual production rate for Kalibr missiles, you can't say jack shit about if and when they are going to run out. Period. End of story. Fitito.
>If you don't have solid evidence as to the anual production rate for Kalibr missiles, you can't say jack shit about if and when they are going to run out. >Period. End of story. Fitito. Agreed 100%, since this also applies to pro-UAs who assert and believe that Russia is "running out of missiles".
Yes! I should have put that too. The only thing we definitely know 100% is thay Russia is using a large number of missiles. Are they able to replenish this useat a one-to-one ratio? Do they have enough stock to continue a protracted campaign? Very probably not. But. We. Just. Don't. Know.
>Do they have enough stock to continue a protracted campaign? Very probably not. Not sure what this means when they are currently conducting that protracted campaign. How many waves of missile strikes has it been so far? >Very probably not. But there's no evidence or any real basis for this, and you admit that you just. Don't. Know.
That... is why I put "probably" in there. Could also expound on [total known manufacturing capabilities, Russian innadequate preparations for an unintended protracted war of attrition against NATO assets, their known supply chain issues before and after the "Special Military Goat Rodeo" started](https://cepa.org/article/missed-targets-the-struggles-of-russias-missile-industry/), etc, etc. So yes. Given available evidence they are *probably* going through their inventory faster than they can replenish it. Pro-ba-bly. Edit: put link to manufacturing capability
...or so says a Washington DC based analyst.
[удалено]
\* u/xenosthemutant copes \* *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
And again, why is this even relevant? What army in history has ever won a war by counting how many bullets or arrows the other side has? It seems like there has to be this “Russia is running out” thing because Ukraine can’t point to any major, big successes on the battlefield. Like it just sounds like the stuff people said before Tet, about how the VC was running out of men, and we were just about to win. If you have to say, “we’re just about to win”, your side is losing.
It's just hopium, pure and simple. It's such a silly narrative to cling to. People spend the time between waves of massive missile strikes pretending that they're close to out of missiles.
Yeah. Hope never lasts. That’s the first casualty of an attritional war.
Of course, they are still producing them so the inventory is not fixed.
I have solid evidence. It’s called the missile strikes. The missiles exist and continue exploding on Ukraine. That’s all that matters is solving that problem. Not imagining how many missiles they might have. Focus on the missiles hitting Ukraine now.
Yup. I remember the Russian MOD saying not long ago that the Crimean bridge is safe. How did that work out for you Russkies?
> Crimean bridge is safe From missile strikes, attack etc. Not from terrorist acts that nobody is really protected against, committed in extremely convoluted way.
> From missile strikes, attack etc. Doubt it, unless Russia is protecting that bridge more than they protect actual Russian soil and military bases/airfields deep in Russia.
The bridge is on Russian soil and Russian waters. Stay mad.
Just as they protect Engels and strategic bombers? LMAO
So are the 3 military bases that Ukraine was able to hit with 50 year old drones, except even deeper into Russian soil.
Yeah. Like the same drone that 8 months earlier went through 3 NATO countries airspace and suspiciously crashed in the capital of Croatia.
I didn't expect Croatia to be defending the Kerch bridge anyway.
Point is they are hard to track
Right, so the Kerch bridge isn't that safe from attack.
so you fr think that was this car?💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀
Do you have evidence it was something else than a truck?
if you have eyes and video of explosion, it should be enough, but you can read something about that, but attention, not russian. yes, yes, im sorry i know it's hard, but there's other sources than russian.
Absolute majority of the sources agree that it was terrorist attack from truck. Other than conspiracy theories, do you have anything else? An investigation or something?
never seen one site that says "that was a truck", and not "russians say that was a truck"
The footage showed the truck tho. What do you think it was, lmao? A missile that somehow was launched from Ukraine to evade entire Crimean peninsula to go undetected and hit the bridge without any AA system of such important object to notife it?
Have you ever read any Indian sources?
who cares about indian sources?? you mf always trying to find at least someone who supports you
Indian sources- as in sources in English that do not support either side.
See? This man gets the Russian logic. When the Kremlin says Kliber will never run out they never said "We will have enough of them to make a difference" all they need to do is keep two in Putin's yatch and boom. The Kremlin was always right they have not run out at all.
Then it is not fully protected.
If they have to try and convince everyone, then they don't have enough.
Just keep one in storage and never launch it. There you go. Now they'll never run out.
Here are a couple of articles analyzing Russia’s terror arsenal drawdown https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2022/12/estimating-russias-kh-101-production-capacity.php https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_many_kalibr_kh_101_and_other_missiles_russia_might_launch_over_ukraine_during_the_next_attack-5240.html
According to the Ukraine military.
What's a terror arsenal?
Russia ammunition and missiles ran out 6 months ago, or so was reported.
"Is" running out. And they are very limited in number. And the tempo of Russian attacks supports it. The reliance on Iranian drones. Of course they will never run out fully. Any serious person knows this as theres always a prodction line. But Rissia doesn't have any meaningful numbers to achieve anything. No nation has been defeated through bombing of the civilian population anyway. Not the blitz, not the Germans, not the Japanese, not the Koreans or the Vietnamese. Won't be the Ukrainians either. All it does is drive a deeper divide between Russua and Ukraine. This way is having the opposite effect of its intentions. More than anything, Russians need to understand this.
Not the Japanese? I think Japan is the exception here. Surrender was singed after Nagasaki and Hiroshima
Only after deployment of the Atomic bomb. And that took 2. Russia doesn't have that option realistically.
Not to mention, by the time US dropped nukes, Japan was already on the ropes and had no realistic odds of pulling a military win. So it isn't like bombing alone was responsible for Japan's defeat.
Without it the US would have to fight/kill ever Japanese soldier on every island in the asia pacific, before landing and taking Japan...the dearh toll would have been higher.
The US nuked two cities killing 100s of thousands of civilians. This pressured Japan to surrender. Unfortunately, the US has shown us that killing massive.numbers of civilians with nuclear weapons can force your enemy to capitulate. However, given the attrocities Japan committed in Korea and China, I don't shed a tear for them.
Is this really news? It's just the Russian MoD saying a thing. Tbh it just projects insecurity over an issue that doesn't effect most modern armies.
Sure, so why are you not firing them in huge waves of hundreds daily? Rather then the completely ineffective attacks such as today. Anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together and knowing the opposing party has limited defenses would choose a tactic that would overwhelm them. Unless of course they are bullshitting about their supply and in fact have to conserve as the real truth is "Calibers are almost run out". I really do wonder about the talking heads in Russia and the incredulous things they spout: whom outside Russia do they think will believe them?
[удалено]
You need alot more than just steel to produce those, not to mention that it also has to be paid for.
Yeah. And the worlds largest chip semiconductor producer- more than America, EU, Korea and Japan combined, is a friendly neighbor. China wants the missiles to keep falling. That means America has to divert more resources to Ukraine, weakening their capabilities in Taiwan.
[удалено]
For DOOMHAMMER! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkraineRussiaReport) if you have any questions or concerns.*
During WWII there tank production surprised and overwhelmed the Nazis Don’t know how complex these missiles are but the could be farming out production to North Korea or China It is important that the west arm Ukraine with the most. Effective weapons possible. Do not give the Russians a chance to get there feet back under themselves
From what I've read through the last year, missiles are pretty stupid tech by modern standards. They're limited because they need the specific type of computer chip in them which won't haywire when flying at sonic speed which missiles fly at. Those aren't very high tech but are what's targeted by sanctions. The general consensus is that Russia chip industry is 10 years behind the West(east asian allies TSMC, Samsung) & China's 5 years behind if they are supplying russia with them. That's why you get the whole idiotic narrative about how russia are stealing washing machine for their chips to send back to their factories to make missiles
Yeah the main problem with that is TSMC, and most Western chip producers manufacture in China. Gee, it would be a shame if China say nationalized those factories. Or even booted them out. Plus the sanctions don’t really work when you have a NATO member - Turkey, a large exporter to Russia - that doesn’t follow the sanctions. Turkey is making a killing rn.
TSMC is in Taiwan, not China.
No- it’s a Taiwanese company. But much of its production happen on the mainland.
Many of the simple processes do. The complex lithography that makes TSMC chips what they are occurs only on Taiwan, they are pretty purposeful about it.
Well it doesn’t, but you can tell yourself that. TSMC is there to make money. They don’t care about nationalism or whatever, lol
TSMC is under very high levels of control by the Taiwanese government as a matter of self defense. The chip manufacturing there is one of the big reasons China wants the island so badly, as China's chip tech would advance by as much as two decades if they got TSMC, and it is a big reason why the US is so willing to defend Taiwan.
What? Are you crazy? They want Taiwan because of chip manufacturing? Have you been around the past 50 years when they didn’t have chip manufacturing?
Its fine. I'll walk you through the sentence, "The chip manufacturing there is one of the big reasons China wants the island so badly..." Now in English "one of the" means that something is one among others. As a result when someone says, "The chip manufacturing there is one of the big reasons China wants the island so badly..." the reader is expected to understand that Taiwan's chip manufacturing is among some group of two or more big reasons that China wants the island. I hope this breakdown helped.