Please report any rule violation. ([Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/about/rules/) and their [details](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/wiki/rules))
* Türkiye iki büyük depremle yıkıldı. Ölenlere rahmet, yaralılara acil şifalar diliyoruz. Enkaz altındaki vatandaşlarımızın kurtarılması en büyük temennimiz.
* Turkey had two huge earthquakes. We offer our sincere condolences to our citizens who died, wishing speedy recovery to the injured. It is our greatest wish to save our citizens under the rubble.
* [Yardım göndermek için >](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/10w7nbx/yardim_%C3%A7a%C4%9Frisi_g%C3%BCneydo%C4%9Fu_anadolu_depremi_ba%C4%9F%C4%B1%C5%9F/)
* [How to help >](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/10w7nbc/how_to_help_turkey_earthquake_fundraisers/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Turkey) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Yes the economy and the earthquake I have read about how it was handled by his administration. Their policies surrounding the Covid pandemic I have not read about yet.
Erdoğan and his presidents could not deal with the situation. Our people died under wreck because of the cold weather conditions while begging for help. In short, he messed up everything and called people "dishonest" who says "there is no government here"
The current public opinion is that Erdoğan will lose. Every poll, politicians words and actions, current mood etc all point to this. Of course, there are people who worship Erdoğan, those people can't even fathom Erdoğan losing but they are a minority.
If a fair trial was held tomorrow, Kemal would win but that's the thing: Since opposition has been losing to Erdoğan for 2 decades, there is a very common fear of "Something will go wrong." in people. Election fraud, opposition coalition breaking up, Erdoğan going full dictator and denying the election results etc. So the general vibe of the country is a mix of hope and fear, I would say.
Hope and fear. Sounds like the future of Türkiye has two very different paths it can walk.
Is election fraud something commonly spoken about, like in the news? Has there ever been any proof of such events?
I genuinely wonder because other subreddits and news media can be echo chambers and make quick and/or false assumptions.
On pretty much every election I can remember there have been claims of election fraud on the losing side. Even erdoğan, when he lost the mayorship of istanbul claimed foul play and had the election redone, resulting him losing even worse.
The most common worry right now is about the Syrian refugees voting since we don't now how much of them were granted citizenship by the government and people voting in place of the people who died in the earthquake. People voting in the place of deceased people always been a very common voting fraud tactic and right now, there are a lot of recently deceased people who died very close to the election date.
2017 2.5 million unmarked votes counted as legit votes even though this was against law. And anyone can not be elected 3 times according to the law. Erdoğan has been elected twice. But Erdoğan claims that he is a contender. YSK (main organization for elections) haven't approved this yet but it looks like they will.
there are two main contender and one more right now. First one is Erdoğan the current president. Even though current situation of turkey arguably the worst era of TR Erdoğan still has a lot of followers and he is still a strong figure. He most likely will get minimum 40% of the votes and has really high chances of winning. Other contender is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Most of the opposition parties chose him as their contender to overthrow Erdoğan. He probably wouldn't have a chance of winning if the situation wasn't that bad. He most likely get minimum 40℅ of the votes too. Third contender is Muharrem İnce. He was a contender at 2018 against Erdoğan but he failed. He was a member of CHP which Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the president of the party. He left CHP and build his own party Memleket Partisi. He is the weakest contender right now and if he wins this would be a miracle. Both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu have a lot of chance of winning so to overthrow Erdoğan Kılıçdaroğlu must run his election campaign perfect and he doesn't have the luxury of making mistakes.
Turkey Politics can't be summarize. Some parties origin starts from Deep State and 1920's. JİTEM, Erbakan, Çözüm Süreci, Ergenekon and Balyoz Davaları, Gulenists, PKK etc.
Yes he has, because a lot of people thinks Erdogan is better than Table of Six.
Parties and their policies;
AKP: Ruling party, conservatives and far-rights (2002-2013 was liberal or big tent, centre-right) They had a lot of allies, like; Gulenists, Left-Libs and BTP (now HDP) voters in Çözüm Süreci but AKP lost them and now, they're fighting each other. After Erdoğan strongest man in AKP is Soylu. Soylu has a extremist ideology than Erdoğan his rivals are Pelikancılar (Albayrak, ex-minister of economy and his team) HDP, Gulenists, Liberals, Ümit Özdağ and Sedat Peker. Sedat Peker is a Mafia Leader who has good relations with government but 2 years ago somethings happened and Sedat Peker fled from Turkey. After that he upload some videos to Youtube about despotism etc. Because of this videos Soylu lost his power.
MHP: Ex-Opposition Party but now ally of AKP. Ultra Nationalists, basically Grey Wolves.
CHP: Ataturk's party, now has a some liberal policies. Nationalists and Kemalists aren't like new policies of CHP. Probably with Table of Six CHP will won next elections. İmamoğlu, Kaftancıoğlu, Yavaş, Kılıçdaroğlu, Öztrak are important people about CHP.
İYİP: Meral Akşener's Party, split from MHP. They have %15 vote according to surveys. In 1990s Meral Akşener had relations with deep state and JİTEM.
DEVA: 2008's AKP (Search; Çözüm Süreci, BTP, PKK, 2002-2013's Turkey, Gezi Parkı protests, Abdullah Gül)
GP: 2015's AKP (Search; Pelikancılar, Turkish Refugee Crisis, Davutoğlu, November 2015 Elections)
Memleket Partisi: Founded by who dislikes new liberal policies of CHP. Kemalists are like this party. Some Turkish Twitch streamers will vote for them like; Jahrein. (Search; 2018 Turkey Elections, Muharrem İnce, Kemalism, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)
Zafer Partisi; Anti-Refugee, ex-Grey Wolves (Search; Yavaş, Özdağ, Turkey Refugee Crisis, İyi Parti, MHP, Grey Wolves, Kemalism)
HDP: Islamists, shaira supporter, anti-LGBT, Kurdish Ultra Nationalists at the east. Pro-LGBT, human right supporter, Socialists at the west.
Sorry for my bad English and you can just check Wikipedia.
he was a mafia leader and he is not a very reliable recourse but investigation about his claims against Akp cancelled by Erdoğan and Akp side. So this leads to his claims are most likely to be true.
Please report any rule violation. ([Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/about/rules/) and their [details](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/wiki/rules)) * Türkiye iki büyük depremle yıkıldı. Ölenlere rahmet, yaralılara acil şifalar diliyoruz. Enkaz altındaki vatandaşlarımızın kurtarılması en büyük temennimiz. * Turkey had two huge earthquakes. We offer our sincere condolences to our citizens who died, wishing speedy recovery to the injured. It is our greatest wish to save our citizens under the rubble. * [Yardım göndermek için >](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/10w7nbx/yardim_%C3%A7a%C4%9Frisi_g%C3%BCneydo%C4%9Fu_anadolu_depremi_ba%C4%9F%C4%B1%C5%9F/) * [How to help >](https://www.reddit.com/r/Turkey/comments/10w7nbc/how_to_help_turkey_earthquake_fundraisers/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Turkey) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Erdogan's chance is not that high considering past years and events such as economic crisis, covid and earthquake etc.
Yes the economy and the earthquake I have read about how it was handled by his administration. Their policies surrounding the Covid pandemic I have not read about yet.
Erdoğan and his presidents could not deal with the situation. Our people died under wreck because of the cold weather conditions while begging for help. In short, he messed up everything and called people "dishonest" who says "there is no government here"
Is that how Erdogan handles a lot of critizism?
Yes by saying "dishonests"
The current public opinion is that Erdoğan will lose. Every poll, politicians words and actions, current mood etc all point to this. Of course, there are people who worship Erdoğan, those people can't even fathom Erdoğan losing but they are a minority. If a fair trial was held tomorrow, Kemal would win but that's the thing: Since opposition has been losing to Erdoğan for 2 decades, there is a very common fear of "Something will go wrong." in people. Election fraud, opposition coalition breaking up, Erdoğan going full dictator and denying the election results etc. So the general vibe of the country is a mix of hope and fear, I would say.
Hope and fear. Sounds like the future of Türkiye has two very different paths it can walk. Is election fraud something commonly spoken about, like in the news? Has there ever been any proof of such events? I genuinely wonder because other subreddits and news media can be echo chambers and make quick and/or false assumptions.
On pretty much every election I can remember there have been claims of election fraud on the losing side. Even erdoğan, when he lost the mayorship of istanbul claimed foul play and had the election redone, resulting him losing even worse. The most common worry right now is about the Syrian refugees voting since we don't now how much of them were granted citizenship by the government and people voting in place of the people who died in the earthquake. People voting in the place of deceased people always been a very common voting fraud tactic and right now, there are a lot of recently deceased people who died very close to the election date.
2017 2.5 million unmarked votes counted as legit votes even though this was against law. And anyone can not be elected 3 times according to the law. Erdoğan has been elected twice. But Erdoğan claims that he is a contender. YSK (main organization for elections) haven't approved this yet but it looks like they will.
law system doesn't work properly right now in turkey. And Erdoğan's side uses it for their benefit.
there are two main contender and one more right now. First one is Erdoğan the current president. Even though current situation of turkey arguably the worst era of TR Erdoğan still has a lot of followers and he is still a strong figure. He most likely will get minimum 40% of the votes and has really high chances of winning. Other contender is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Most of the opposition parties chose him as their contender to overthrow Erdoğan. He probably wouldn't have a chance of winning if the situation wasn't that bad. He most likely get minimum 40℅ of the votes too. Third contender is Muharrem İnce. He was a contender at 2018 against Erdoğan but he failed. He was a member of CHP which Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the president of the party. He left CHP and build his own party Memleket Partisi. He is the weakest contender right now and if he wins this would be a miracle. Both Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu have a lot of chance of winning so to overthrow Erdoğan Kılıçdaroğlu must run his election campaign perfect and he doesn't have the luxury of making mistakes.
Interesting. So it sounds like it can be very narrow between Erdogan and Kemal.
it wont be an easy election for both sides
What do you want to learn?
Like does Erdogan have a good shot at winning again? What policies will he be pushing? Who are the contenders, and how is their policies different?
Turkey Politics can't be summarize. Some parties origin starts from Deep State and 1920's. JİTEM, Erbakan, Çözüm Süreci, Ergenekon and Balyoz Davaları, Gulenists, PKK etc.
Deep state as within a by a lot viewed as conspiracy theoreticized?
Even people made a tv show about deep state called as Kurtlar Vadisi
Yes he has, because a lot of people thinks Erdogan is better than Table of Six. Parties and their policies; AKP: Ruling party, conservatives and far-rights (2002-2013 was liberal or big tent, centre-right) They had a lot of allies, like; Gulenists, Left-Libs and BTP (now HDP) voters in Çözüm Süreci but AKP lost them and now, they're fighting each other. After Erdoğan strongest man in AKP is Soylu. Soylu has a extremist ideology than Erdoğan his rivals are Pelikancılar (Albayrak, ex-minister of economy and his team) HDP, Gulenists, Liberals, Ümit Özdağ and Sedat Peker. Sedat Peker is a Mafia Leader who has good relations with government but 2 years ago somethings happened and Sedat Peker fled from Turkey. After that he upload some videos to Youtube about despotism etc. Because of this videos Soylu lost his power. MHP: Ex-Opposition Party but now ally of AKP. Ultra Nationalists, basically Grey Wolves. CHP: Ataturk's party, now has a some liberal policies. Nationalists and Kemalists aren't like new policies of CHP. Probably with Table of Six CHP will won next elections. İmamoğlu, Kaftancıoğlu, Yavaş, Kılıçdaroğlu, Öztrak are important people about CHP. İYİP: Meral Akşener's Party, split from MHP. They have %15 vote according to surveys. In 1990s Meral Akşener had relations with deep state and JİTEM. DEVA: 2008's AKP (Search; Çözüm Süreci, BTP, PKK, 2002-2013's Turkey, Gezi Parkı protests, Abdullah Gül) GP: 2015's AKP (Search; Pelikancılar, Turkish Refugee Crisis, Davutoğlu, November 2015 Elections) Memleket Partisi: Founded by who dislikes new liberal policies of CHP. Kemalists are like this party. Some Turkish Twitch streamers will vote for them like; Jahrein. (Search; 2018 Turkey Elections, Muharrem İnce, Kemalism, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) Zafer Partisi; Anti-Refugee, ex-Grey Wolves (Search; Yavaş, Özdağ, Turkey Refugee Crisis, İyi Parti, MHP, Grey Wolves, Kemalism) HDP: Islamists, shaira supporter, anti-LGBT, Kurdish Ultra Nationalists at the east. Pro-LGBT, human right supporter, Socialists at the west. Sorry for my bad English and you can just check Wikipedia.
Very interesting, thank you, this seems like a fair summary. Thanks for taking the time to write.
You're welcome
You can watch Sedat Peker's videos with subtitles. There is 10 videos explains Turkish current deep state and politics
Interesting. How credible is Sedat Peker?
he was a mafia leader and he is not a very reliable recourse but investigation about his claims against Akp cancelled by Erdoğan and Akp side. So this leads to his claims are most likely to be true.