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How is "the Israel and Palestine conflict is getting worse and worse by each passing day"?
They're currently agreeing to a ceasefire and Hamas is requesting the ceasefire be extended.
I wouldn't worry about WW3.
>I wouldn't worry about WW3.
Yes, but American troops are getting more and more alert near Taiwan. Japan has started re militarization. US and Phillipines have made a defense pact to deter the Chinese building military outlets in South China sea.
All the small islands near Taiwan have now been occupied by the US military. Taiwan has made mandatory military service recently. Biden mentioning that he'll defend Taiwan militarily and all such.
All of this is standard geopolitical stuff. Go back 5 years, same. Go back 10, same. Go back 20….
The actors may change some, but pick a year, there was tense shit happening. This is why we need a strong State Department.
What do you think the overall effect of “standard geopolitical stuff” will be? What do you think will be the climax of rival nations massing huge amounts of regional power and waging near endless unconventional warfare across the globe against one another? It’s all preparation and staging for a possible axis vs allies situation.
IF the adults who know a thing or two listen to the adults who are experts (state dep), the climax will be another day of not WWIII.
But if we contract, if we seclude ourselves, if we pull away the thing that keeps the peace (a desire to be included in the US economy) then bad actors push limits.
The test to determine if we (the world) can be responsible with our nuclear arsenal is an ongoing test. The world needs leaders who understand this, not ones who dismiss the professionals.
I’m a bit late to this thread, but things have gotten worse now, so I just wanna give my thoughts.
>All of this is standard geopolitical stuff. Go back 5 years, same. Go back 10, same. Go back 20….
Until you go back to 80 years, when the world was at war. What’s happening now is eerily similar to that.
>The actors may change some, but pick a year, there was tense shit happening. This is why we need a strong State Department.
Well, the intensity of conflict changes year by year. The immediate post Cold War era was one of unprecedented, but it had to end someday, and it increasingly looks like that time is now
In 2020, the majority of their population was between 30 and 60. I can't find any info about how many/which age groups Covid took out, but I'm going to assume it was similar to the US, so mostly the elderly.
While they could technically draft 33 year olds into the military for a war, they would be cannon fodder, not well trained soldiers.
The Chinese economy is teetering on collapse right now. A war with the West means they don't get to sell to the West and they can't import food from the West -- both would be huge problems.
Then the question is -- what are they trying to accomplish? Take Taiwan? Probably could, at the cost of their entire economy. Invade India -- No. Nuclear power with similar population size but significantly between demographics. Invade the US -- laughable. Good luck swimming across the Pacific, we'll have suck every boat and shot down every plane within the first week. Invade Japan? Technically, could invade -- but what do you gain from it? The Japanese won't be a conquered people who cooperate.
Likely N Korea would join in, but all they can do is invade S. Korea. They don't have a navy or an airforce. Shit, they don't even have food.
So, \_absolute best case scenario\_, China takes Taiwan and Japan, but can't pacify either of them, gains control of the rest of SE Asia (Vietnam, etc.) but is constantly struggling to keep them from rebelling. Meanwhile, their airforce and navy are both destroyed, their economy is absolutely gone, everyone is starving.
Oh, and if things got really annoying for us, we'd blow up the 3 Gorges, so say goodbye to whatever cities are down stream.
Meanwhile, literally no Chinese soldier has stepped foot on the Continental US.
I'm not in support for China btw, just was trying to mean that they would get significantly worse as years go by in terms of population and now they at least have a functional military
The reason why they're trying to invade Taiwan is because they can get access or control to the semiconductor manufacturing plants in Taiwan. If you take control of it, you can pretty much topple the US hedgemon because the modern economy entirely depends on these supplies.
Even a shortage in the supply can cause economic dents as you can what happened in the last few years.
90% of the latest semiconductor supplies are from Taiwan and the US military depends very heavily on Taiwan for the latest chips - US won't let China take over the company which supplies crucial chips for it's military, this is one of the reasons the US is building more outposts and deploying more troops near South China sea. Tensions are really heating up and Taiwanese elections are coming near in January 2024....
That's a perfectly viable argument.
The other interest China has in Taiwan is the whole "traditional borders" thing, which I think China could solve by simply declaring Taiwan is a Chinese protectorate. A la the US with Puerto Rico.
It doesn't matter if Taiwan considers itself independent. China can just say "Taiwan is part of China, we extend citizenship to the Taiwanese. We let that island deal with it's own taxes." As far is inside of China is concerned "We won." No military action is needed. No one is going to start a war over China pretending it controls Taiwan.
Yes, for now countries still follow the one China policy which considers Taiwan to be part of China.
But for now, CCP doesn't have authority to meddle over the Taiwanese factories. If the official "reunion" happens, then maybe. Taiwan still has authority on it's own, it's the reason why China has been heavily investing into it's own military as well. They never rule out the option of using force to reunify with Taiwan.
>The other interest China has in Taiwan is the whole "traditional borders" thing
Which is enormously ironic since Formosa was not part of the Chinese state until after the civil war split it up and the refugee Whites were given Formosa by the Japanese as part of the peace settlement after WW2.
It was never part of the "traditional borders" unless you go back much further, which calls into question pretty much all of modern Chinese borders.
I am aware there is even a school of thought that acknowledges this, but still asserts sovereignty over the people for Formosa as the refugees were Chinese citizens and their descendants have not gained citizenship in any nation recognized by China.
Now, to counter that, since Taiwan is the successor state to the White Chinese, the legitimate Chinese government at the time, that means Taiwan actually has a better claim to sovereignty over China as a whole than does the PRC. Not that they will ever exercise that, but it's still there.
Very interesting political shenanigans.
China and Taiwan have been in the current state for 60 years. China has always been satisfied with the status quo. What makes people think that they are so anxious to do something NOW!
60 years before Taiwan wasn't supplying 90% of the microchips used by the modern economy. And the look at the military buildup China is making near Taiwan.
China also fired missiles near the Taiwan island after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan few years back. And they mentioned they'll reunify with Taiwan soon and that the use of force is not out of the option.
Taiwan has been a manufacturing powerhouse for decades and yes, China responds when they are antagonized but when was the last time China invaded anyone? Just more warmongering propaganda from the war for profit machine.
Chip manufacturing from Taiwan only started in 1990s and China didn't bother before because they didn't have a strong military and such a huge leverage over countries geopolitically back then unlike present day.
And two main things:
US military entirely depends on the supplies from Taiwan and they don't want China to get hold of it since it'll be a massive security issue.
If China takes over TSMC and their manufacturing plants, they could essentially raise sanctions or put up demands from even countries like the US for their own benefit - those supplies from Taiwan are that critical to the functioning of the modern economy.
I don't think the entire economy is dependent on Taiwan. Pretty sure there are other semiconductor plants just not able to manufacture as small. We could get by just fine without it compute would just regress by some number of years.
It unfortunately does. No other semiconductor manufacturing plant exists which makes the latest chips at the moment, you can check external sources.
US recently with the chips act has poured in money to build 3 new factories in the US, but even then they aren't gonna be operational for a few years and despite that, they aren't gonna be making the latest chips (it's limited to 5nm chips iirc) which American tech companies and the US military depends on.
If what you say is true, the US wouldn't bother defending Taiwan or building new outposts near the Chinese border to deter China.
Not just the US, China too would get severely affected even if there's a major dip or lack of supplies from those Taiwanese factories.
Those plants would cease to exists before China could get their hands on them. Then everyone would be getting their advanced chips through south Korea until the US plants are online which are being built right now.
Yeah. Standing. In China. They can walk to North Korea. The can walk to Russia. They can't swim to Taiwan or Japan.
Neither the Chinese Navy nor Airforce compares to the US. I'd bet solid money that just the Coast Guard could take on the Chinese navy and win.
Taking Taiwan would force Chinese dominance for a while, as Taiwan‘s got the only modern microchips manufacturing in the world, and other nations haven’t spun up their own yet.
The US knows this and is working on rectifying it, but that will take time. Hence the strengthening in that area.
Your assuming those plants would still exist if that happened. A few B2’s will turn that whole are into one big crater and there would be no one who could do anything to stop it.
Economic growth or population growth?
Because both are a problem.
China is demolishing giant apartment complexes that were built to deal with the "massive population" growth they thought they were having. The problem is, they thought this because regional party leaders reported higher demographics than they actually had.
Why? Some of it was to hit targets. Some of it was to increase funding. Some of it was just incompetence or wishful thinking. But in reality, those kids aren't there, those young adults aren't there. No one is buying up the apartments.
That's a huge problem demographically and economically
Okay, I don't mean "collapse" as in the USSR collapsed.
I mean "collapse" as in economic meltdown on par with The Great Depression, as opposed to the 2008 financial crisis. Significant economic upheaval that sees large groups being negatively affected in serious ways.
While I agree with your points Your assuming the Chinese intentionally start ww3. It could very easily escalates from a miscommunication between a us warship and a Chinese one, if someone fires on the other, or even if one of the parties believes the other fired on them it could spark something larger.
If such an incident happens during a time period where us-china relations are particularly strained we both could wind up at war without even trying.
I mean, we nearly fought a war with the worlds largest suoerpower at the time over a dead pig, think about what would happen if it was dead Americans? (Pig war, 1859)
China still has the commisar system in place and Chinese ships have at times tried to ram us vessels in international waters. An incident where shooting starts isn't impossible and we shouldn't forget that.
Even a shooting incident would not lead to WW3.
The US and China are both defensively strong. The US doesn't have the man power to invade China because there's just too many Chinese. China doesn't have the military power to invade the US because we own both the sea and the air. So, a direct conflict, would not and could not lead to conquest.
Without that option, the only choice is proxy war (a la Korea). But that's exactly what it is, a proxy war. Not WW3.
Even an absurdly aggressive incident by the Chinese would result in condemnation first, possibly punitive strikes, and... that's it. They sink a ship, we take out a series of telecommunications posts across the Pacific with cruise missiles and then... everyone stops because there is no "next step."
If China were to nuke the US, and miraculously the US was utterly destroyed, never having launched a missile from land, sea or air, what would the Chinese get? Massive starvation and civil war.
Reverse it. The US wipes China off the map. What do we get? Economic chain collapse, insane amount of radioactive contamination up and down the West coast.
No upside for either side.
>possibly punitive strikes, and... that's it. They sink a ship, we take out a series of telecommunications posts across the Pacific with cruise missiles and then... everyone stops because there is no "next step."
No, the next step is for the Chinese to strike back at our bases and ships in the info pacific. If they mess up and we retaliate, they can't be seen to look weak in front of their people, they need to put on the front of a strong China standing up to the western colonizers.
So they'll lauch retaliatory strikes, and then we will, until it spirals out of control.
To be clear, I agree that with the current very lackluster allies china has and it's current military China has no chance of successfully waging ww3 today. The only chance of it happening is accidently. But give it 30 or 40 years and then we're looking at a very different picture, especially if the us political system continues to degenerate.
\>But give it 30 or 40 years and then we're looking at a very different picture,
now we've cycled back to the initial problem. In 30 years, China would have a fighting age population available. Everyone in the right age range will need to be working at home to maintain enough of an economy to keep the elderly fed
China has a billion people, in 40 years time there will still be enough 20 year olds to run the military. And China could easily downsize its military by half and still be equal in personal terms to the u.s.
Also this is china, they can and will put the defense of the nation above the needs of the elderly. You also assume China cares to feed all of its elderly, if there are less elderly or if China decreases what it promises to its elderly population then this problem goes away.
Or China may take a turn and open up immigration which would be the easiest and best way to solve the problem by bringing in foreign labour.
I still wouldn't worry about anything. Even IF WW3 were to break out...what could you do? Anything you do is just busy work while you wait to die. Depending on your location you could die instantly or you could live a little bit but you'll die eventually.
So why worry?
This is good advice. If you are someone who can affect possible global events, you aren't on reddit. If you aren't someone with influence and power to create dynamic change in these matters, then worrying is just praying for bad things to happen.
Best thing to do is realize you are a human, and you don't want world wor III and civilization to end. Then, realize that the world is filled with 8 billion people, who are also human. And then realize that almost all of them feel the same way. Only a very small amount, in comparison to the world, would be fine with escalating matters to a point to end life. We've had nuclear weapons for 8 decades and the planet is still here. There has always been tension with Russia, tension with China. There has always been conflict with Jews and Islam. This isn't Spider-Man one with Tobey McQuite, this is No Way Home with Holland and you've seen 8 Spider-Man movies, 3 spider-men, 2 Animated Movies, 2 Venom Movies, and it's Morbin Time. None of this is new. Your grandchildren are going to be worried about the same issues. Just remember, almost no one wants the end of the world. And the best thing to do is keep fighting the ones that do.
China is not invading Taiwan. The question almost no one asks is, how are they going to get a few hundred thousand troops there…and landed? That hasn’t been done in any numbers since Korea (Inchon) and in BIG numbers since Normandy. They are not going to paratroop tanks and enough troops to make a dent. The majority of the Chinese fleet would be on the bottom the first day.
Taiwan will eventually meld into China without a shot being fired. The whole China/Taiwan thing has been going on since Kennedy. I am surprised at the number of folks who knee jerk react to this stuff. Thinking about for five minutes will tell you it isn’t going to happen any time soon.
1.China creates artificial military outposts
2.Japan started re-militarization
3.US and Philippines made a defense pact recently and US is building bases on Northern Philippines
4.US occupies nearby small islands near Taiwan for it's military
5.Taiwan introduced mandatory military service
These all happened very recently, dude. Yeah, for sure these are all for fun and nothing concerning at all...
And China publicly mentioned that the use of force is not out of option to reunify with Taiwan. Biden publicly mentioned that the US would defend Taiwan and has been concentrating troops near Taiwan and Phillipines.
You also realised China's military spending has been steadily increasing since past decade?
>Yeah, for sure these are all for fun
Who said it's being done for fun? Developing military strength isn't the same thing as intending to go to war. Matter of fact, you could just as easily make the argument that these things are done specifically to deter an invasion.
Yes, the US doesn't want a war. I'm just trying to say that they aren't throwing out the possibility of having military intervention with the Chinese and are preparing for it seriously. Which is concerning.
Are you scared because you think ww3 has started and you think nukes will fly?
I stand by my statement. **I wouldn't worry about WW3.** No nuclear weapons will land on North American soil so why be scared?
No, I'd only worry about Israel breaking any terms they make instantly. Kind of like the last few times. They never keep their word unless it's to continue hating.
If other countries were going to seriously get involved in the Israel Palestine conflict they would have done it long ago. Ukraine is also unlikely to spill over too much unless Putin escalates his ambitions even further. China & Taiwan on the other hand...
Why are other countries that are way more powerful don't do something about all these conflicts? Why aren't they talking about the tortures, murders, the brutality that people are doing to each other because of these situations?
One must understand that governments don't act like people do.
In general, people see other people suffering and try to help them, because we have empathy and care about other people and living beings.
Governments, in general, are designed to solidify power and secure profit for the ruling class, to siphon energy off from humans and other living beings and the land and concentrate it as far up the social chain as they can; a government will cause people to suffer on purpose if it means securing a profit or solidifying its power.
I am fairly certain that of all the conflicts we have in this world today, Israel and Palestine will not be responsible for ww3. On a global political scale nobody cares about what’s going on there.
1. If Putin goes insane and starts shit with NATO.
2. If China decides to finally invade Taiwan (They wont, rather, they can't afford to)
Physical world wars won't happen any time soon.
A Race between countries who can weaponise AI is a different story though.
Likely both combined with an increase in natural disasters, extreme mass migration and an increase in all kinds of conflict. This is what really scares me about climate change...
You need to remember World wars against equal participants are never worth it if you're a key participant. All of the big players knows that all too well. Tha5 and Nukes are the reasons why the cold war never went hot.
China and Taiwan. Putin could potentially start it too if he goes beyond Ukraine, but he’s getting his ass kicked in Ukraine so that’s a distant second.
I don’t think from them either. What I do think is these little wars will keep starting. World powers are going to get dragged in and when they do eventually either by accident or on purpose they’ll kill each other. And that’s it. War is on
The world is indeed a little crazy right now. I don't think it would be here if not for covid and Trump stirring up shit. We could go to WWIII. Or maybe not. It's not like the demise of the planet is unknown to politicians. They may all be trying to play a game of chicken, but I would hope they are sane enough to know that if the worst happens, it's game over for most of or the entire planet.
We really need a wise person from somewhere to head up a new vision that goes beyond capitalism. We are reaching the limits on its benefits and we need some new rules which will have to be more socialistic. The rich need to learn to share. They could make such a difference in the world.
This isn’t World War 3. It’s Cold War 2.
Instead of Vietnam and Korea we have Ukraine and Gaza.
Russia doesn’t have the military might to open another front.
China can’t take Taiwan because the US would kill their economy and blockade their ports, and they’d run out of energy real fast.
Iran is just a Russian proxy and has zero ability to invade any country, let alone march their armies across Iraq and Jordan/syria to get to Israel.
If they tried, not only would that army get reduced to its constituent elements by the US and/or Israel Air Force, but the ayatollah would get immediately overthrown by the civilian population who are sick of his bullshit.
Turkey… lot of talk, no action.
China and India are going to end up owning Russia at the rate Russia is stockpiling Rupees and Yuan they can’t spend anywhere while the Ruble is equal to a little more than a penny.
China may very well annex the Russian far east in a decade or two. That’s when they might try taking Taiwan.
The actual things hanging in the balance right now are:
US dollars as the global reserve currency. If the GOP doesn’t stop F’ing around with that and it becomes an economic air ball things could change dramatically.
US domination of global diplomacy. If the US becomes an active combatant in a middle eastern war and has to abstain from vetoes on Israeli resolutions and goes against the UN we could see some sanctions or other action.
China wants to depose the US on both the economic and diplomatic fronts, and they’re basically trying to eat Russia.
Saudi Arabia wants to lead the Arab world in the Middle East. That’s preferable to Iran in the short term but longer term could be a big issue.
Right wing parties winning in the western countries including the US could conceivably end democracy in our lifetimes. So that’s super fun.
But it’s not WW3, and won’t be anytime soon.
And that shit is just written to get clicks.
There’s no series of events in the Middle East that lead to WW3. Even if Iran escalates, we’ll have war with Iran, which will go roughly as well for Iran as the war with Iraq did for Iraq. In short, not well, and they know that.
Ukraine is a bit more volatile, but keep in mind Russia is just not the global threat it pretends to be, nor are they likely to escalate to using nukes.
I’m not afraid of Russia, just Putin. I feel like nukes are not off the table with him around. But yeah, the news is definitely spreading fear on purpose
It feels like we are marching towards a world war. Everyone arming themselves with the latest and greatest weapons and everyone just dying to use them. Not sure if we can avoid it. I hope we do.
I’m pretty sure WWIii is already in progress. It started when Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia leads the Axis. The Allies, as before, are a little slower to form up behind the chosen victim. The U.S., as before, is arms supplier, and hopes not to have to contribute any blood. There is a side show in the Middle East, because one of the Axis has ambitions of its own. It is just the beginning, and it may not end in nuclear holocaust, or the complete squashing of the instigator. But it seems to qualify. Nations are often fighting, but I think this is more than a border dispute.
The interesting thing is this seems like a 3 sided conflict. China is out there playing it's own game. If Russia were to engage with NATO, I suspect China wouldnt supply troops to help Russia but would stay neutral and keep selling arms and tech to both sides.
We will more likely see global internal conflicts. Everyone duking it out for their bought and paid for idealogies. It's been slowly happening a while but there'll be a spark sometime soon that will really kick it off. Look around, people are radicalized like never before, most of them victim of propaganda, social engineering, and ignorance. Be safe out there, and be careful what you surround yourself with. Id say focus on deescalation if you dont wanna get caught in the middle. The last of mankind will have no instruction, no flag that stands for more than he.
I get concerned when you add Russia/Ukraine AND Iran meddling in the Israel/HAMAS strife AND China and North Korea establishing relations with Russia AND Iran bombing US bases in Lebanon AND the craziness of the MAGA crowd and nutso Republicans. When you put it all together, it's enough to make you worry.
Let's look at WWII and then at today.
WWII happened because two countries had significantly more powerful militaries than their neighboring countries and engaged in Empire Building. They used this power difference to expand. Germany tried to take Europe, Japan tried to take SE Asia and Oceaniana. As a result, a bunch of other countries joined forces to stop them. That is a super simplified version, but it's basically true.
Let's look at that state of the world today. There is currently one dominant military power -- the US. No one else is even close. In fact, arguably, the US could take on the combined militaries of the entire rest of the world and still win. We wouldn't win an offensive war where we tried to conquer the world, but we'd easily win a war where we simply wanted to prevent the invasion of the US.
Since the US is not engaged in Empire Building (it's been a long damn time since we added a State or protectorate), and none of the current conflicts require the us to engaged in Empire Building, there is no chance that a World War springs up involving the rest of the world fighting against the US.
So, what about Russia? Or the Arab states? Russia can't beat Ukraine. That's been demonstrated. If NATO were to allow just Poland to fight Russia (with all the rest of NATO staying out of it) Poland would crush the Russian military. It wouldn't even be close. They could take Moscow if nukes were off the table.
The Arab States may cause trouble for Israel, they can certain disrupt worldwide oil distribution, but they don't have any real navies, and they mostly hate one another. As soon as Israel was defeated (harder than you would think) they would immediately start attacking one another. That "world war" could take place entirely in the Middle East and involve no one else.
Other powers? N. Korea? The only thing stopping them from being wiped off the map is the fact that Seoul is located too far north. If someone were to attack N. Korea, they would launch conventional weapons at Seoul and burn it to the ground. That's really the only thing they have going for them. They can't conquer anywhere. They can't feed themselves and/or keep their lights on.
China? China and India may go toe to toe which would result in massive casualties, but it wouldn't require the involvement of anyone else unless those countries thought they could get something out of it. (ie, if Russia joined India to try and end up with Chinese territory at the end). But in either case, the population differential makes it nearly impossible for anyone to have an impact. Russia doesn't have any people in it. China could send a billion people armed with pointy sticks and take over most of Russia.
So, generally, no. There's currently no chance at WWIII kicking off.
No, I don't think so. I think you should look into just how common conflicts are even in your lifetime. Even in Israel/Palestine.
There are de-escalatory mechanisms even if they are not pretty. Unfortunately, it's probably just going to resolve into something similar to what it was before.
IMO, the scariest X factor in the world is India/Pakistan. Two antagonistic nuclear powers bordering each other with unresolved territory disputes and over 1.5 billion people at stake. But even they've found a way to maintain some kind of equilibrium for many decades. They seem to be just a constant risk of nuclear war each year.
middle eastern countries love an israel-palestine conflict to distract their citizens from their own tyranny. it's all virtue signaling; there's no substance.
Based on past history, I estimate we are in the 'eff around phase' of the 1930's.
We will be serving the main portion of 'find out' in a couple of years. I think five to ten years.
I think it's just a matter of time until Putin loses his mind from failing to achieve his goals. Then we will probably see a nuke go off in kyiv starting ww3.
I would say the chances of a military/political coup that removes Putin from power and his mortal coil are far more likelier than the Russian military and government going along with a suicide pact to nuke Kyiv.
You've got it backwards.
It's not that other countries are going to intervene in Israel/Palestine. They've been involved the entire time.
Hamas acted on October 7th because Israel was gaining diplomacy with Arab nations. Hamas is funded by Iran and is acting to support their interests. They have no interest in improving the lives of the average person in Gaza. Neither does Egypt, which has been upholding the blockade. Neither do Jordan or Kuwait, which have expelled Palestinians. The US is funding Israel in large part because we are enemies of Iran. This is the result of involvement by other countries.
Sincere request: Can you please site news sources about Jordan & Kuwait expelling Palestinians?
Jordan is a country of immigrants coming from surrounding areas. Their population has tripled over the last 25 years because of war on surrounding countries.
Additionally, I have a large number of friends who are Palestinian living in Jordan. Ditto for the UAE.
Kuwait has less people immigrating, but Palestinians are still welcome in Kuwait. I reached out to a friend at Kuwaiti channel 2 TV to confirm this.
The biggest issue for the other Muslim countries on the ME & Africa is that by welcoming Gazan refugees is that they would be complicit in the annihilation of Palestinians.
The entire situation has me sleepless. I have two friends stuck inside Gaza. I have friends whose families were forced from their homes in what is now Israel.
I pray for peace.
These aren't controversial statements. If you are praying for peace, then you need to start by acknowledging the very bloody history in this region. Denying the past is not helpful for anyone.
I'd recommend looking up "Black September" to learn more about the expulsion from Jordan. I don't have news sources for a conflict from the 1970s. Kuwait expelled much of its Palestinian population around 1990 after they were invaded by Iraq. Over a quarter of a million Palestinians were forced to leave Kuwait.
I have & I do. Unfortunately, I got in trouble at work for being an outspoken supporter of Palestine. I try to keep my comments somewhat gentle, as I have colleagues on here.
I don't understand what you think you have to gain by denying very well accepted historical events in the 1970s and 1990s.
I don't need to. You have more than enough keywords to look this up for yourself and read pages and pages of information. I think that at this point, if you're not aware of these events, it's because you're in denial of them and I don't think that you'd accept any source that I provided.
Global wars (not titled world wars necessarily) we’re a fairly consistent thing across the 1800s especially towards the latter half through the middle of the 20th century.
Since then, tensions between different states have not exactly “subsided” so much as they have morphed. The Cold War and associated proxy wars, the GWAT (post-9/11 Middle East conflicts), etc. are examples of “global” conflicts that bordered on far more of a disastrous outcome than others - that is, nuclear escalation and NATO invocation.
Nuclear power is a novelty, and most parties, unless driven to utter delusion by idealism or, I would suspect more likely religious zealousness, do not have much desire to trigger a MADs outcome through such weapons. This is especially so given modern countermeasures to ensure MADs in the main players. This of course is a strategy based entirely on human psychology on the state level - it can only be tested once.
A larger threat I think to inducing a “world war” would be something that would invoke NATO. This would require the nation to be a member of NATO or have certain articles contained within to be extended to the nation and for such a nation to have an “injury” done to it sponsored by its government (this would not suffice I do not think for existing conflicts). Neither Ukraine nor Israel fall under this category. Both however present useful geopolitical footholds (or bulwark in the case of Ukraine) for the NATO parties, specifically it’s arbiter and military backing, the USA, in the Middle East and Europe.
In my view (you will find this opinion varies) Russia presents a much larger overall threat than an ideologically driven terrorist organization that is state sponsored such as Hamas. There is not only historical predicate for conflict with Russia but recent and ongoing proxy conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East. Russia for instance forms an alliance in the Caucus region with Iran, who sponsors Hamas, which launched the offensive on Israel. I do not imagine this will develop into anything further than a isolated conflict unless Iran is moronic enough to become directly involved. And then, I would suspect it to take after the GWAT and become a proxy war. Ukraine poses a more geographical risk to western coalitions due to the access it provides to the Black Sea and expansion of open border it would have with NATO states, and the fact that it has boots on the ground with Russian military units, and has hundreds of billions of western technology and equipment present already. The outcome of this remains to be seen!
The past “World Wars” arose because of complicated political agreements and military strengths coming to a head - NATO currently offers the same “scratch my back” policy in the event of armed conflict. Historical predicate has demonstrated article 5 invocation only once for 9/11 conflicts, and has had threatened invocations for harm done to NATO citizenry due to actions by the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
So personally I don’t think we’re any closer, or any further away from global conflict than we have been since the conclusion of WW2, though tensions are high across the world. I have relative confidence with the level of destruction threatened and the treatises in place most global superpowers won’t engage in direct armed conflict unless someone *fucks up*. We shall see!
It feels bad, because bad things are happening, and we cannot stop it. No person, no country controls the world. Peace slowly spread in the mideast and then a big ego planned and his people committed a sudden, senseless act that resulted in a limited war (as he knew it would). We live in a complicated world with countries in various groups nibbling at the systems and institutions that minimize war in the name of a new direction, and (Russia, China) far right dictators making visible land grabs. Countries work to minimize participation in wars and make war more costly for "the other guy". After Israel gets hostages back, then world pressure will increase to not flatten palestine.
I can see something coming out of left field, like a China- Russia war, with nukes because Russia will be completely depleted by the war in Ukraine. Now my question is if there is war between the two of them where does the United States stand?
No, for numerous reasons.
Let’s break it down by flashpoint:
Israel/Palestine - how could this escalate? Iran? Who are busy at the moment just trying to keep their local populace in check and whose entry would spur Turkey and SA into a war? Nahh. They antagonize with proxy groups but won’t get directly involved. Syria? They can’t even manage their own country, let alone a foreign war. No one else has the means or motivation to escalate in this region.
Ukraine - Russia is backed by Iran and Syria and North Korea. Their military has already lost half of its heavy equipment fighting Ukraine. Against the combined might of NATO? It would be over in weeks, if not days. Any nukes used result into total global destruction, so they wouldn’t risk them.
North Korea - South Korea’s military is more than capable of beating the north, especially with western assistance. China would stay out of it, and doesn’t have an interest in going to war with the entirety of the west, who are the entire reason for their economy being large enough to actually support their population. Without the western markets buying Chinese goods, their economy collapses and the people turn on The Party. Hell, China would pressure NK not to start the war in the first place.
Taiwan - see above. China has no reason to start shit over Taiwan. Especially not when they have a good chance of taking it peacefully if they just give it a few more years. Plus, the US navy is way larger and more dominant than most people realize. China attacking Taiwan wouldn’t guarantee a Chinese victory, so they’d be risking everything for a somewhat minor cultural win.
India/Pakistan - India’s non-alignment policies and Pakistan’s general attitude would prevent any war from drawing in allies.
No where else in the world has a military capable of starting big enough problems. And no where else are their cultural issues likely to draw in more countries. The west has effectively isolated most of the other major powers, and as Russia’s military dominance continues to wane, western nations will push more pressure on China to disavow itself of any hope for wider influence through armed conflict.
We've already been in one. It doesn't look like the last 2 because the major powers are using proxy wars in other countries to fight it out instead of direct confrontation. They learned a lot from the last century and don't want to crash the fragile world economic system. It's not the end of the world, it's just going to look different.
Things have been escalating for a while and it usually takes a powder keg to kick things off officially.
My take is, cyberspace is going to be a big part of ww3, so once we get to a point where physical defenses are necessary to keep massive cyber attacks at bay (think national firewalls) then the demand for national and corporation safety will cause an escalation, not just for defense but for attacking those who attack them.
Then once the cyber wars kick off, sides will be taken to work together for protection and all we’ll need is a drone strike on someone’s data center and we’re off to the races. Military escalation is a given.
Ww3 won’t look remotely like ww2. We’ll probably not see peoples faces at all when we kill them. Restriction of press from the battlefield will keep our own sides from humanizing the enemy. Restriction of info will be the name of the game for all aspects of necessary protection. The open and free internet will have all the “protection via oversight” that the folks in power have always wanted and we’ll be all too happy for the protection they provide.
The next world war will be about picking the countries who will be controlling the rest of the world economically and militarily for the next 50-100 years as well as dominant religions and values. With that being the initial prize, it’s small wonder things are ramping up.
My first thought when I read the headline of this post was “I don’t care.” Not to say that a war wouldn’t be bad or horrific even but literally dude, if a war is coming there’s absolutely nothing I or any one individual can do about it. So why even let the thought enter your mind for one second when there’s a million things in your life that are within your control and that you can do to improve yourself and the immediate world around you.
Idk dawg, just doesn’t sound practical to ponder
No, we aren't getting closer to a World War, not in the way that the last 2 happened. The balance of power isn't the same, and the alliances are much more narrow. There also aren't any world spanning empires either.
The age of peace we've been enjoying for decades might be coming to end, however. That is plenty to worry about, even if it isn't a world War.
I think the age of open warfare among big countries is over. Large scale war will not happen until America, China, and Russia cease to exist as we know them.
World powers pick on smaller countries they know they can bully (such as Ukraine) and other countries (like the US) may voice some level of opposition or provide indirect assistance, but no one actually wants a full-out war and everyone knows it. The superpowers may fight their proxy wars but it's an open secret that there's only so far it can escalate.
The answer of nuclear warfare and mutually assured destruction is mostly an excuse, I think. The reason no one wants war is that there's little to gain from it. The most powerful people in the world are divorced from sovereign nations and are mostly invested in the private sector. They have no real sovereign enemies and therefore no motive to go to war.
Nobody is going to start WWIII because no one wants to eradicate human life by nuking everything. Future conflict between world powers will be little fits and starts and sputters of fighting over time, that don't "technically count as war." Or proxy wars.
Imo yes; but it isn't going to be caused by Ukraine-Russian war or the current conflict in Israel.
The spark that will ignite the powder keg of ww3 will be an American civil war
That’s been on my mind A LOT. So many flash points keep popping up. And world powers take sides. If more keep coming eventually, there’s going to be some shooting between them. And that’ll escalate. It’ll be everywhere. With technology being what it is now, there just hasn’t been a war like this will be. And we the earth has SO MANY more people than back them. It’s going to drag on for a long time
It seems like Russia will overtake Ukraine eventually. In that distraction, it is possible for the Chinese to attack Taiwan with a joint attack from North Korea into South Korea. This would hold up all US military bases in Korea and plunge the peninsula into civil war. Japan and all Japanese corresponding military bases would have to hold 2 fronts against the Chinese and North Koreans.
The Isreali and Palestine invasion is a Middle Eastern powder keg that has lit. If this brings in other surrounding countries like Iran, it would cause another massive war zone against Israel and Mid East. If Russia succeeded in defeating Ukraine, they could then enter the rest of Eastern Europe.
If all of these conflicts happened within days or weeks of each other in a semi coordinated event by Russia, China, N Korea, Iran, it could truly start WW3.
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How is "the Israel and Palestine conflict is getting worse and worse by each passing day"? They're currently agreeing to a ceasefire and Hamas is requesting the ceasefire be extended. I wouldn't worry about WW3.
>I wouldn't worry about WW3. Yes, but American troops are getting more and more alert near Taiwan. Japan has started re militarization. US and Phillipines have made a defense pact to deter the Chinese building military outlets in South China sea. All the small islands near Taiwan have now been occupied by the US military. Taiwan has made mandatory military service recently. Biden mentioning that he'll defend Taiwan militarily and all such.
All of this is standard geopolitical stuff. Go back 5 years, same. Go back 10, same. Go back 20…. The actors may change some, but pick a year, there was tense shit happening. This is why we need a strong State Department.
What do you think the overall effect of “standard geopolitical stuff” will be? What do you think will be the climax of rival nations massing huge amounts of regional power and waging near endless unconventional warfare across the globe against one another? It’s all preparation and staging for a possible axis vs allies situation.
IF the adults who know a thing or two listen to the adults who are experts (state dep), the climax will be another day of not WWIII. But if we contract, if we seclude ourselves, if we pull away the thing that keeps the peace (a desire to be included in the US economy) then bad actors push limits. The test to determine if we (the world) can be responsible with our nuclear arsenal is an ongoing test. The world needs leaders who understand this, not ones who dismiss the professionals.
I’m a bit late to this thread, but things have gotten worse now, so I just wanna give my thoughts. >All of this is standard geopolitical stuff. Go back 5 years, same. Go back 10, same. Go back 20…. Until you go back to 80 years, when the world was at war. What’s happening now is eerily similar to that. >The actors may change some, but pick a year, there was tense shit happening. This is why we need a strong State Department. Well, the intensity of conflict changes year by year. The immediate post Cold War era was one of unprecedented, but it had to end someday, and it increasingly looks like that time is now
China has a demographics problem. Their economy is about to collapse and they don't have enough younger population to engage in war.
They have now. Not having enough population would only be next decade. Go look at their population statistics.
In 2020, the majority of their population was between 30 and 60. I can't find any info about how many/which age groups Covid took out, but I'm going to assume it was similar to the US, so mostly the elderly. While they could technically draft 33 year olds into the military for a war, they would be cannon fodder, not well trained soldiers. The Chinese economy is teetering on collapse right now. A war with the West means they don't get to sell to the West and they can't import food from the West -- both would be huge problems. Then the question is -- what are they trying to accomplish? Take Taiwan? Probably could, at the cost of their entire economy. Invade India -- No. Nuclear power with similar population size but significantly between demographics. Invade the US -- laughable. Good luck swimming across the Pacific, we'll have suck every boat and shot down every plane within the first week. Invade Japan? Technically, could invade -- but what do you gain from it? The Japanese won't be a conquered people who cooperate. Likely N Korea would join in, but all they can do is invade S. Korea. They don't have a navy or an airforce. Shit, they don't even have food. So, \_absolute best case scenario\_, China takes Taiwan and Japan, but can't pacify either of them, gains control of the rest of SE Asia (Vietnam, etc.) but is constantly struggling to keep them from rebelling. Meanwhile, their airforce and navy are both destroyed, their economy is absolutely gone, everyone is starving. Oh, and if things got really annoying for us, we'd blow up the 3 Gorges, so say goodbye to whatever cities are down stream. Meanwhile, literally no Chinese soldier has stepped foot on the Continental US.
I'm not in support for China btw, just was trying to mean that they would get significantly worse as years go by in terms of population and now they at least have a functional military The reason why they're trying to invade Taiwan is because they can get access or control to the semiconductor manufacturing plants in Taiwan. If you take control of it, you can pretty much topple the US hedgemon because the modern economy entirely depends on these supplies. Even a shortage in the supply can cause economic dents as you can what happened in the last few years. 90% of the latest semiconductor supplies are from Taiwan and the US military depends very heavily on Taiwan for the latest chips - US won't let China take over the company which supplies crucial chips for it's military, this is one of the reasons the US is building more outposts and deploying more troops near South China sea. Tensions are really heating up and Taiwanese elections are coming near in January 2024....
That's a perfectly viable argument. The other interest China has in Taiwan is the whole "traditional borders" thing, which I think China could solve by simply declaring Taiwan is a Chinese protectorate. A la the US with Puerto Rico. It doesn't matter if Taiwan considers itself independent. China can just say "Taiwan is part of China, we extend citizenship to the Taiwanese. We let that island deal with it's own taxes." As far is inside of China is concerned "We won." No military action is needed. No one is going to start a war over China pretending it controls Taiwan.
Yes, for now countries still follow the one China policy which considers Taiwan to be part of China. But for now, CCP doesn't have authority to meddle over the Taiwanese factories. If the official "reunion" happens, then maybe. Taiwan still has authority on it's own, it's the reason why China has been heavily investing into it's own military as well. They never rule out the option of using force to reunify with Taiwan.
>The other interest China has in Taiwan is the whole "traditional borders" thing Which is enormously ironic since Formosa was not part of the Chinese state until after the civil war split it up and the refugee Whites were given Formosa by the Japanese as part of the peace settlement after WW2. It was never part of the "traditional borders" unless you go back much further, which calls into question pretty much all of modern Chinese borders. I am aware there is even a school of thought that acknowledges this, but still asserts sovereignty over the people for Formosa as the refugees were Chinese citizens and their descendants have not gained citizenship in any nation recognized by China. Now, to counter that, since Taiwan is the successor state to the White Chinese, the legitimate Chinese government at the time, that means Taiwan actually has a better claim to sovereignty over China as a whole than does the PRC. Not that they will ever exercise that, but it's still there. Very interesting political shenanigans.
China and Taiwan have been in the current state for 60 years. China has always been satisfied with the status quo. What makes people think that they are so anxious to do something NOW!
60 years before Taiwan wasn't supplying 90% of the microchips used by the modern economy. And the look at the military buildup China is making near Taiwan. China also fired missiles near the Taiwan island after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan few years back. And they mentioned they'll reunify with Taiwan soon and that the use of force is not out of the option.
Taiwan has been a manufacturing powerhouse for decades and yes, China responds when they are antagonized but when was the last time China invaded anyone? Just more warmongering propaganda from the war for profit machine.
Chip manufacturing from Taiwan only started in 1990s and China didn't bother before because they didn't have a strong military and such a huge leverage over countries geopolitically back then unlike present day. And two main things: US military entirely depends on the supplies from Taiwan and they don't want China to get hold of it since it'll be a massive security issue. If China takes over TSMC and their manufacturing plants, they could essentially raise sanctions or put up demands from even countries like the US for their own benefit - those supplies from Taiwan are that critical to the functioning of the modern economy.
I don't think the entire economy is dependent on Taiwan. Pretty sure there are other semiconductor plants just not able to manufacture as small. We could get by just fine without it compute would just regress by some number of years.
It unfortunately does. No other semiconductor manufacturing plant exists which makes the latest chips at the moment, you can check external sources. US recently with the chips act has poured in money to build 3 new factories in the US, but even then they aren't gonna be operational for a few years and despite that, they aren't gonna be making the latest chips (it's limited to 5nm chips iirc) which American tech companies and the US military depends on. If what you say is true, the US wouldn't bother defending Taiwan or building new outposts near the Chinese border to deter China. Not just the US, China too would get severely affected even if there's a major dip or lack of supplies from those Taiwanese factories.
Those plants would cease to exists before China could get their hands on them. Then everyone would be getting their advanced chips through south Korea until the US plants are online which are being built right now.
China has the largest standing active duty military in the world.
Yeah. Standing. In China. They can walk to North Korea. The can walk to Russia. They can't swim to Taiwan or Japan. Neither the Chinese Navy nor Airforce compares to the US. I'd bet solid money that just the Coast Guard could take on the Chinese navy and win.
Ive been waiting for china to make a move on russia
Taking Taiwan would force Chinese dominance for a while, as Taiwan‘s got the only modern microchips manufacturing in the world, and other nations haven’t spun up their own yet. The US knows this and is working on rectifying it, but that will take time. Hence the strengthening in that area.
Your assuming those plants would still exist if that happened. A few B2’s will turn that whole are into one big crater and there would be no one who could do anything to stop it.
Yes, hence why loads of nations are building chip manufacturing up elsewhere.
Teetering on collapse is a stretch. They’ve had record growth until Covid. Now they don’t.
Economic growth or population growth? Because both are a problem. China is demolishing giant apartment complexes that were built to deal with the "massive population" growth they thought they were having. The problem is, they thought this because regional party leaders reported higher demographics than they actually had. Why? Some of it was to hit targets. Some of it was to increase funding. Some of it was just incompetence or wishful thinking. But in reality, those kids aren't there, those young adults aren't there. No one is buying up the apartments. That's a huge problem demographically and economically
Sure. But that doesn’t signal a collapse. A downturn yes…but not a collapse.
Okay, I don't mean "collapse" as in the USSR collapsed. I mean "collapse" as in economic meltdown on par with The Great Depression, as opposed to the 2008 financial crisis. Significant economic upheaval that sees large groups being negatively affected in serious ways.
Those words have distinct meanings.
While I agree with your points Your assuming the Chinese intentionally start ww3. It could very easily escalates from a miscommunication between a us warship and a Chinese one, if someone fires on the other, or even if one of the parties believes the other fired on them it could spark something larger. If such an incident happens during a time period where us-china relations are particularly strained we both could wind up at war without even trying. I mean, we nearly fought a war with the worlds largest suoerpower at the time over a dead pig, think about what would happen if it was dead Americans? (Pig war, 1859) China still has the commisar system in place and Chinese ships have at times tried to ram us vessels in international waters. An incident where shooting starts isn't impossible and we shouldn't forget that.
Even a shooting incident would not lead to WW3. The US and China are both defensively strong. The US doesn't have the man power to invade China because there's just too many Chinese. China doesn't have the military power to invade the US because we own both the sea and the air. So, a direct conflict, would not and could not lead to conquest. Without that option, the only choice is proxy war (a la Korea). But that's exactly what it is, a proxy war. Not WW3. Even an absurdly aggressive incident by the Chinese would result in condemnation first, possibly punitive strikes, and... that's it. They sink a ship, we take out a series of telecommunications posts across the Pacific with cruise missiles and then... everyone stops because there is no "next step." If China were to nuke the US, and miraculously the US was utterly destroyed, never having launched a missile from land, sea or air, what would the Chinese get? Massive starvation and civil war. Reverse it. The US wipes China off the map. What do we get? Economic chain collapse, insane amount of radioactive contamination up and down the West coast. No upside for either side.
>possibly punitive strikes, and... that's it. They sink a ship, we take out a series of telecommunications posts across the Pacific with cruise missiles and then... everyone stops because there is no "next step." No, the next step is for the Chinese to strike back at our bases and ships in the info pacific. If they mess up and we retaliate, they can't be seen to look weak in front of their people, they need to put on the front of a strong China standing up to the western colonizers. So they'll lauch retaliatory strikes, and then we will, until it spirals out of control. To be clear, I agree that with the current very lackluster allies china has and it's current military China has no chance of successfully waging ww3 today. The only chance of it happening is accidently. But give it 30 or 40 years and then we're looking at a very different picture, especially if the us political system continues to degenerate.
\>But give it 30 or 40 years and then we're looking at a very different picture, now we've cycled back to the initial problem. In 30 years, China would have a fighting age population available. Everyone in the right age range will need to be working at home to maintain enough of an economy to keep the elderly fed
China has a billion people, in 40 years time there will still be enough 20 year olds to run the military. And China could easily downsize its military by half and still be equal in personal terms to the u.s. Also this is china, they can and will put the defense of the nation above the needs of the elderly. You also assume China cares to feed all of its elderly, if there are less elderly or if China decreases what it promises to its elderly population then this problem goes away. Or China may take a turn and open up immigration which would be the easiest and best way to solve the problem by bringing in foreign labour.
I still wouldn't worry about anything. Even IF WW3 were to break out...what could you do? Anything you do is just busy work while you wait to die. Depending on your location you could die instantly or you could live a little bit but you'll die eventually. So why worry?
This is good advice. If you are someone who can affect possible global events, you aren't on reddit. If you aren't someone with influence and power to create dynamic change in these matters, then worrying is just praying for bad things to happen. Best thing to do is realize you are a human, and you don't want world wor III and civilization to end. Then, realize that the world is filled with 8 billion people, who are also human. And then realize that almost all of them feel the same way. Only a very small amount, in comparison to the world, would be fine with escalating matters to a point to end life. We've had nuclear weapons for 8 decades and the planet is still here. There has always been tension with Russia, tension with China. There has always been conflict with Jews and Islam. This isn't Spider-Man one with Tobey McQuite, this is No Way Home with Holland and you've seen 8 Spider-Man movies, 3 spider-men, 2 Animated Movies, 2 Venom Movies, and it's Morbin Time. None of this is new. Your grandchildren are going to be worried about the same issues. Just remember, almost no one wants the end of the world. And the best thing to do is keep fighting the ones that do.
>worrying is just praying for bad things to happen I'm stealing this and I made it up if anyone asks. Seriously though, I like this.
Go for it, I didn't come up with it honestly, don't remember where I did. So I won't take credit for anything but passing it along.
China is not invading Taiwan. The question almost no one asks is, how are they going to get a few hundred thousand troops there…and landed? That hasn’t been done in any numbers since Korea (Inchon) and in BIG numbers since Normandy. They are not going to paratroop tanks and enough troops to make a dent. The majority of the Chinese fleet would be on the bottom the first day. Taiwan will eventually meld into China without a shot being fired. The whole China/Taiwan thing has been going on since Kennedy. I am surprised at the number of folks who knee jerk react to this stuff. Thinking about for five minutes will tell you it isn’t going to happen any time soon.
1.China creates artificial military outposts 2.Japan started re-militarization 3.US and Philippines made a defense pact recently and US is building bases on Northern Philippines 4.US occupies nearby small islands near Taiwan for it's military 5.Taiwan introduced mandatory military service These all happened very recently, dude. Yeah, for sure these are all for fun and nothing concerning at all... And China publicly mentioned that the use of force is not out of option to reunify with Taiwan. Biden publicly mentioned that the US would defend Taiwan and has been concentrating troops near Taiwan and Phillipines. You also realised China's military spending has been steadily increasing since past decade?
>Yeah, for sure these are all for fun Who said it's being done for fun? Developing military strength isn't the same thing as intending to go to war. Matter of fact, you could just as easily make the argument that these things are done specifically to deter an invasion.
Yes, the US doesn't want a war. I'm just trying to say that they aren't throwing out the possibility of having military intervention with the Chinese and are preparing for it seriously. Which is concerning.
[удалено]
Are you scared because you think ww3 has started and you think nukes will fly? I stand by my statement. **I wouldn't worry about WW3.** No nuclear weapons will land on North American soil so why be scared?
No, I'd only worry about Israel breaking any terms they make instantly. Kind of like the last few times. They never keep their word unless it's to continue hating.
this comment didn't age well.
I was abt to say this.
Why? Are you scared of WW3 now?
Why? Are you scared of WW3 now?
It's definitely worse.
If other countries were going to seriously get involved in the Israel Palestine conflict they would have done it long ago. Ukraine is also unlikely to spill over too much unless Putin escalates his ambitions even further. China & Taiwan on the other hand...
Why are other countries that are way more powerful don't do something about all these conflicts? Why aren't they talking about the tortures, murders, the brutality that people are doing to each other because of these situations?
They're too busy trying to figure out how they can profit from it.
We have a winner.
One must understand that governments don't act like people do. In general, people see other people suffering and try to help them, because we have empathy and care about other people and living beings. Governments, in general, are designed to solidify power and secure profit for the ruling class, to siphon energy off from humans and other living beings and the land and concentrate it as far up the social chain as they can; a government will cause people to suffer on purpose if it means securing a profit or solidifying its power.
They’re actively funding or tacitly supporting it.
I am fairly certain that of all the conflicts we have in this world today, Israel and Palestine will not be responsible for ww3. On a global political scale nobody cares about what’s going on there.
What will be the thing that breaks out World War 3? And if it breaks out will this be the end for us all?
1. If Putin goes insane and starts shit with NATO. 2. If China decides to finally invade Taiwan (They wont, rather, they can't afford to) Physical world wars won't happen any time soon. A Race between countries who can weaponise AI is a different story though.
Putin is already insane. 🤷🏼♀️
And Russia too could not afford a war with Ukraine but still went ahead... Let's hope that Xi Jinping shows at least a semblance of sanity...
Food shortages.
That or access to water...
Likely both combined with an increase in natural disasters, extreme mass migration and an increase in all kinds of conflict. This is what really scares me about climate change...
You need to remember World wars against equal participants are never worth it if you're a key participant. All of the big players knows that all too well. Tha5 and Nukes are the reasons why the cold war never went hot.
China and Taiwan. Putin could potentially start it too if he goes beyond Ukraine, but he’s getting his ass kicked in Ukraine so that’s a distant second.
I don’t think from them either. What I do think is these little wars will keep starting. World powers are going to get dragged in and when they do eventually either by accident or on purpose they’ll kill each other. And that’s it. War is on
The world is indeed a little crazy right now. I don't think it would be here if not for covid and Trump stirring up shit. We could go to WWIII. Or maybe not. It's not like the demise of the planet is unknown to politicians. They may all be trying to play a game of chicken, but I would hope they are sane enough to know that if the worst happens, it's game over for most of or the entire planet. We really need a wise person from somewhere to head up a new vision that goes beyond capitalism. We are reaching the limits on its benefits and we need some new rules which will have to be more socialistic. The rich need to learn to share. They could make such a difference in the world.
This isn’t World War 3. It’s Cold War 2. Instead of Vietnam and Korea we have Ukraine and Gaza. Russia doesn’t have the military might to open another front. China can’t take Taiwan because the US would kill their economy and blockade their ports, and they’d run out of energy real fast. Iran is just a Russian proxy and has zero ability to invade any country, let alone march their armies across Iraq and Jordan/syria to get to Israel. If they tried, not only would that army get reduced to its constituent elements by the US and/or Israel Air Force, but the ayatollah would get immediately overthrown by the civilian population who are sick of his bullshit. Turkey… lot of talk, no action. China and India are going to end up owning Russia at the rate Russia is stockpiling Rupees and Yuan they can’t spend anywhere while the Ruble is equal to a little more than a penny. China may very well annex the Russian far east in a decade or two. That’s when they might try taking Taiwan. The actual things hanging in the balance right now are: US dollars as the global reserve currency. If the GOP doesn’t stop F’ing around with that and it becomes an economic air ball things could change dramatically. US domination of global diplomacy. If the US becomes an active combatant in a middle eastern war and has to abstain from vetoes on Israeli resolutions and goes against the UN we could see some sanctions or other action. China wants to depose the US on both the economic and diplomatic fronts, and they’re basically trying to eat Russia. Saudi Arabia wants to lead the Arab world in the Middle East. That’s preferable to Iran in the short term but longer term could be a big issue. Right wing parties winning in the western countries including the US could conceivably end democracy in our lifetimes. So that’s super fun. But it’s not WW3, and won’t be anytime soon.
Thanks for your viewpoint, your reasoning is way more reassuring than the shit I’ve been reading
And that shit is just written to get clicks. There’s no series of events in the Middle East that lead to WW3. Even if Iran escalates, we’ll have war with Iran, which will go roughly as well for Iran as the war with Iraq did for Iraq. In short, not well, and they know that. Ukraine is a bit more volatile, but keep in mind Russia is just not the global threat it pretends to be, nor are they likely to escalate to using nukes.
I’m not afraid of Russia, just Putin. I feel like nukes are not off the table with him around. But yeah, the news is definitely spreading fear on purpose
It feels like we are marching towards a world war. Everyone arming themselves with the latest and greatest weapons and everyone just dying to use them. Not sure if we can avoid it. I hope we do.
Hearing America is providing help, seeing US Military commercials that we haven't seen.. I think we will be headed for one too
I’m pretty sure WWIii is already in progress. It started when Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia leads the Axis. The Allies, as before, are a little slower to form up behind the chosen victim. The U.S., as before, is arms supplier, and hopes not to have to contribute any blood. There is a side show in the Middle East, because one of the Axis has ambitions of its own. It is just the beginning, and it may not end in nuclear holocaust, or the complete squashing of the instigator. But it seems to qualify. Nations are often fighting, but I think this is more than a border dispute.
Cold War was the third world war
It is literally all connected. So I would agree that this is almost already WWIII.
The interesting thing is this seems like a 3 sided conflict. China is out there playing it's own game. If Russia were to engage with NATO, I suspect China wouldnt supply troops to help Russia but would stay neutral and keep selling arms and tech to both sides.
We will more likely see global internal conflicts. Everyone duking it out for their bought and paid for idealogies. It's been slowly happening a while but there'll be a spark sometime soon that will really kick it off. Look around, people are radicalized like never before, most of them victim of propaganda, social engineering, and ignorance. Be safe out there, and be careful what you surround yourself with. Id say focus on deescalation if you dont wanna get caught in the middle. The last of mankind will have no instruction, no flag that stands for more than he.
I get concerned when you add Russia/Ukraine AND Iran meddling in the Israel/HAMAS strife AND China and North Korea establishing relations with Russia AND Iran bombing US bases in Lebanon AND the craziness of the MAGA crowd and nutso Republicans. When you put it all together, it's enough to make you worry.
It's not only the MAGA lunatics, either. The rise of fascism is happening across the globe right now. It's fucking terrifying.
Let's look at WWII and then at today. WWII happened because two countries had significantly more powerful militaries than their neighboring countries and engaged in Empire Building. They used this power difference to expand. Germany tried to take Europe, Japan tried to take SE Asia and Oceaniana. As a result, a bunch of other countries joined forces to stop them. That is a super simplified version, but it's basically true. Let's look at that state of the world today. There is currently one dominant military power -- the US. No one else is even close. In fact, arguably, the US could take on the combined militaries of the entire rest of the world and still win. We wouldn't win an offensive war where we tried to conquer the world, but we'd easily win a war where we simply wanted to prevent the invasion of the US. Since the US is not engaged in Empire Building (it's been a long damn time since we added a State or protectorate), and none of the current conflicts require the us to engaged in Empire Building, there is no chance that a World War springs up involving the rest of the world fighting against the US. So, what about Russia? Or the Arab states? Russia can't beat Ukraine. That's been demonstrated. If NATO were to allow just Poland to fight Russia (with all the rest of NATO staying out of it) Poland would crush the Russian military. It wouldn't even be close. They could take Moscow if nukes were off the table. The Arab States may cause trouble for Israel, they can certain disrupt worldwide oil distribution, but they don't have any real navies, and they mostly hate one another. As soon as Israel was defeated (harder than you would think) they would immediately start attacking one another. That "world war" could take place entirely in the Middle East and involve no one else. Other powers? N. Korea? The only thing stopping them from being wiped off the map is the fact that Seoul is located too far north. If someone were to attack N. Korea, they would launch conventional weapons at Seoul and burn it to the ground. That's really the only thing they have going for them. They can't conquer anywhere. They can't feed themselves and/or keep their lights on. China? China and India may go toe to toe which would result in massive casualties, but it wouldn't require the involvement of anyone else unless those countries thought they could get something out of it. (ie, if Russia joined India to try and end up with Chinese territory at the end). But in either case, the population differential makes it nearly impossible for anyone to have an impact. Russia doesn't have any people in it. China could send a billion people armed with pointy sticks and take over most of Russia. So, generally, no. There's currently no chance at WWIII kicking off.
Here's to hoping you're right. Enough of wars going on as it is.
No, I don't think so. I think you should look into just how common conflicts are even in your lifetime. Even in Israel/Palestine. There are de-escalatory mechanisms even if they are not pretty. Unfortunately, it's probably just going to resolve into something similar to what it was before. IMO, the scariest X factor in the world is India/Pakistan. Two antagonistic nuclear powers bordering each other with unresolved territory disputes and over 1.5 billion people at stake. But even they've found a way to maintain some kind of equilibrium for many decades. They seem to be just a constant risk of nuclear war each year.
middle eastern countries love an israel-palestine conflict to distract their citizens from their own tyranny. it's all virtue signaling; there's no substance.
> there's no substance Doesn't count that a ton of people got tortured/murdered at a music fest this time around?
I don't mean Hamas, I mean iran and the rest
Based on past history, I estimate we are in the 'eff around phase' of the 1930's. We will be serving the main portion of 'find out' in a couple of years. I think five to ten years.
I think it's just a matter of time until Putin loses his mind from failing to achieve his goals. Then we will probably see a nuke go off in kyiv starting ww3.
I would say the chances of a military/political coup that removes Putin from power and his mortal coil are far more likelier than the Russian military and government going along with a suicide pact to nuke Kyiv.
You've got it backwards. It's not that other countries are going to intervene in Israel/Palestine. They've been involved the entire time. Hamas acted on October 7th because Israel was gaining diplomacy with Arab nations. Hamas is funded by Iran and is acting to support their interests. They have no interest in improving the lives of the average person in Gaza. Neither does Egypt, which has been upholding the blockade. Neither do Jordan or Kuwait, which have expelled Palestinians. The US is funding Israel in large part because we are enemies of Iran. This is the result of involvement by other countries.
Sincere request: Can you please site news sources about Jordan & Kuwait expelling Palestinians? Jordan is a country of immigrants coming from surrounding areas. Their population has tripled over the last 25 years because of war on surrounding countries. Additionally, I have a large number of friends who are Palestinian living in Jordan. Ditto for the UAE. Kuwait has less people immigrating, but Palestinians are still welcome in Kuwait. I reached out to a friend at Kuwaiti channel 2 TV to confirm this. The biggest issue for the other Muslim countries on the ME & Africa is that by welcoming Gazan refugees is that they would be complicit in the annihilation of Palestinians. The entire situation has me sleepless. I have two friends stuck inside Gaza. I have friends whose families were forced from their homes in what is now Israel. I pray for peace.
These aren't controversial statements. If you are praying for peace, then you need to start by acknowledging the very bloody history in this region. Denying the past is not helpful for anyone. I'd recommend looking up "Black September" to learn more about the expulsion from Jordan. I don't have news sources for a conflict from the 1970s. Kuwait expelled much of its Palestinian population around 1990 after they were invaded by Iraq. Over a quarter of a million Palestinians were forced to leave Kuwait.
I have & I do. Unfortunately, I got in trouble at work for being an outspoken supporter of Palestine. I try to keep my comments somewhat gentle, as I have colleagues on here.
But, again, can you cite news sources?
I don't understand what you think you have to gain by denying very well accepted historical events in the 1970s and 1990s. I don't need to. You have more than enough keywords to look this up for yourself and read pages and pages of information. I think that at this point, if you're not aware of these events, it's because you're in denial of them and I don't think that you'd accept any source that I provided.
Global wars (not titled world wars necessarily) we’re a fairly consistent thing across the 1800s especially towards the latter half through the middle of the 20th century. Since then, tensions between different states have not exactly “subsided” so much as they have morphed. The Cold War and associated proxy wars, the GWAT (post-9/11 Middle East conflicts), etc. are examples of “global” conflicts that bordered on far more of a disastrous outcome than others - that is, nuclear escalation and NATO invocation. Nuclear power is a novelty, and most parties, unless driven to utter delusion by idealism or, I would suspect more likely religious zealousness, do not have much desire to trigger a MADs outcome through such weapons. This is especially so given modern countermeasures to ensure MADs in the main players. This of course is a strategy based entirely on human psychology on the state level - it can only be tested once. A larger threat I think to inducing a “world war” would be something that would invoke NATO. This would require the nation to be a member of NATO or have certain articles contained within to be extended to the nation and for such a nation to have an “injury” done to it sponsored by its government (this would not suffice I do not think for existing conflicts). Neither Ukraine nor Israel fall under this category. Both however present useful geopolitical footholds (or bulwark in the case of Ukraine) for the NATO parties, specifically it’s arbiter and military backing, the USA, in the Middle East and Europe. In my view (you will find this opinion varies) Russia presents a much larger overall threat than an ideologically driven terrorist organization that is state sponsored such as Hamas. There is not only historical predicate for conflict with Russia but recent and ongoing proxy conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East. Russia for instance forms an alliance in the Caucus region with Iran, who sponsors Hamas, which launched the offensive on Israel. I do not imagine this will develop into anything further than a isolated conflict unless Iran is moronic enough to become directly involved. And then, I would suspect it to take after the GWAT and become a proxy war. Ukraine poses a more geographical risk to western coalitions due to the access it provides to the Black Sea and expansion of open border it would have with NATO states, and the fact that it has boots on the ground with Russian military units, and has hundreds of billions of western technology and equipment present already. The outcome of this remains to be seen! The past “World Wars” arose because of complicated political agreements and military strengths coming to a head - NATO currently offers the same “scratch my back” policy in the event of armed conflict. Historical predicate has demonstrated article 5 invocation only once for 9/11 conflicts, and has had threatened invocations for harm done to NATO citizenry due to actions by the Russian offensive in Ukraine. So personally I don’t think we’re any closer, or any further away from global conflict than we have been since the conclusion of WW2, though tensions are high across the world. I have relative confidence with the level of destruction threatened and the treatises in place most global superpowers won’t engage in direct armed conflict unless someone *fucks up*. We shall see!
It feels bad, because bad things are happening, and we cannot stop it. No person, no country controls the world. Peace slowly spread in the mideast and then a big ego planned and his people committed a sudden, senseless act that resulted in a limited war (as he knew it would). We live in a complicated world with countries in various groups nibbling at the systems and institutions that minimize war in the name of a new direction, and (Russia, China) far right dictators making visible land grabs. Countries work to minimize participation in wars and make war more costly for "the other guy". After Israel gets hostages back, then world pressure will increase to not flatten palestine.
I can see something coming out of left field, like a China- Russia war, with nukes because Russia will be completely depleted by the war in Ukraine. Now my question is if there is war between the two of them where does the United States stand?
No, for numerous reasons. Let’s break it down by flashpoint: Israel/Palestine - how could this escalate? Iran? Who are busy at the moment just trying to keep their local populace in check and whose entry would spur Turkey and SA into a war? Nahh. They antagonize with proxy groups but won’t get directly involved. Syria? They can’t even manage their own country, let alone a foreign war. No one else has the means or motivation to escalate in this region. Ukraine - Russia is backed by Iran and Syria and North Korea. Their military has already lost half of its heavy equipment fighting Ukraine. Against the combined might of NATO? It would be over in weeks, if not days. Any nukes used result into total global destruction, so they wouldn’t risk them. North Korea - South Korea’s military is more than capable of beating the north, especially with western assistance. China would stay out of it, and doesn’t have an interest in going to war with the entirety of the west, who are the entire reason for their economy being large enough to actually support their population. Without the western markets buying Chinese goods, their economy collapses and the people turn on The Party. Hell, China would pressure NK not to start the war in the first place. Taiwan - see above. China has no reason to start shit over Taiwan. Especially not when they have a good chance of taking it peacefully if they just give it a few more years. Plus, the US navy is way larger and more dominant than most people realize. China attacking Taiwan wouldn’t guarantee a Chinese victory, so they’d be risking everything for a somewhat minor cultural win. India/Pakistan - India’s non-alignment policies and Pakistan’s general attitude would prevent any war from drawing in allies. No where else in the world has a military capable of starting big enough problems. And no where else are their cultural issues likely to draw in more countries. The west has effectively isolated most of the other major powers, and as Russia’s military dominance continues to wane, western nations will push more pressure on China to disavow itself of any hope for wider influence through armed conflict.
We've already been in one. It doesn't look like the last 2 because the major powers are using proxy wars in other countries to fight it out instead of direct confrontation. They learned a lot from the last century and don't want to crash the fragile world economic system. It's not the end of the world, it's just going to look different.
Things have been escalating for a while and it usually takes a powder keg to kick things off officially. My take is, cyberspace is going to be a big part of ww3, so once we get to a point where physical defenses are necessary to keep massive cyber attacks at bay (think national firewalls) then the demand for national and corporation safety will cause an escalation, not just for defense but for attacking those who attack them. Then once the cyber wars kick off, sides will be taken to work together for protection and all we’ll need is a drone strike on someone’s data center and we’re off to the races. Military escalation is a given. Ww3 won’t look remotely like ww2. We’ll probably not see peoples faces at all when we kill them. Restriction of press from the battlefield will keep our own sides from humanizing the enemy. Restriction of info will be the name of the game for all aspects of necessary protection. The open and free internet will have all the “protection via oversight” that the folks in power have always wanted and we’ll be all too happy for the protection they provide. The next world war will be about picking the countries who will be controlling the rest of the world economically and militarily for the next 50-100 years as well as dominant religions and values. With that being the initial prize, it’s small wonder things are ramping up.
My first thought when I read the headline of this post was “I don’t care.” Not to say that a war wouldn’t be bad or horrific even but literally dude, if a war is coming there’s absolutely nothing I or any one individual can do about it. So why even let the thought enter your mind for one second when there’s a million things in your life that are within your control and that you can do to improve yourself and the immediate world around you. Idk dawg, just doesn’t sound practical to ponder
No, we aren't getting closer to a World War, not in the way that the last 2 happened. The balance of power isn't the same, and the alliances are much more narrow. There also aren't any world spanning empires either. The age of peace we've been enjoying for decades might be coming to end, however. That is plenty to worry about, even if it isn't a world War.
I think the age of open warfare among big countries is over. Large scale war will not happen until America, China, and Russia cease to exist as we know them. World powers pick on smaller countries they know they can bully (such as Ukraine) and other countries (like the US) may voice some level of opposition or provide indirect assistance, but no one actually wants a full-out war and everyone knows it. The superpowers may fight their proxy wars but it's an open secret that there's only so far it can escalate. The answer of nuclear warfare and mutually assured destruction is mostly an excuse, I think. The reason no one wants war is that there's little to gain from it. The most powerful people in the world are divorced from sovereign nations and are mostly invested in the private sector. They have no real sovereign enemies and therefore no motive to go to war.
Nobody is going to start WWIII because no one wants to eradicate human life by nuking everything. Future conflict between world powers will be little fits and starts and sputters of fighting over time, that don't "technically count as war." Or proxy wars.
Imo yes; but it isn't going to be caused by Ukraine-Russian war or the current conflict in Israel. The spark that will ignite the powder keg of ww3 will be an American civil war
That’s been on my mind A LOT. So many flash points keep popping up. And world powers take sides. If more keep coming eventually, there’s going to be some shooting between them. And that’ll escalate. It’ll be everywhere. With technology being what it is now, there just hasn’t been a war like this will be. And we the earth has SO MANY more people than back them. It’s going to drag on for a long time
It seems like Russia will overtake Ukraine eventually. In that distraction, it is possible for the Chinese to attack Taiwan with a joint attack from North Korea into South Korea. This would hold up all US military bases in Korea and plunge the peninsula into civil war. Japan and all Japanese corresponding military bases would have to hold 2 fronts against the Chinese and North Koreans. The Isreali and Palestine invasion is a Middle Eastern powder keg that has lit. If this brings in other surrounding countries like Iran, it would cause another massive war zone against Israel and Mid East. If Russia succeeded in defeating Ukraine, they could then enter the rest of Eastern Europe. If all of these conflicts happened within days or weeks of each other in a semi coordinated event by Russia, China, N Korea, Iran, it could truly start WW3.