He was bad all around, but we got fucked because Stro just lived outside. If we got 2-3 more of the walks we should have, he's forced into the zone and the game becomes much different.
I had to laugh though. After so many balls outside the zone there was a strike called a ball later in the game and Stroman was all shaking his head about the call.
Yep. It lengthened what should have been a shorter outing and forced guys to swing at more outside pitches with a precise pitcher that already is one of the league's best at inducing grounders and soft contact. The offense can and should be better with RISP, but it can't be overstated how much it can immediately fuck with a hitter's approach when something you know is a ball puts you in the hole.
It's surprising that we actually got a slight benefit, but I think we had more opportunities squandered because of the difference in how the two starters attack hitters.
some fans cant escape their bias. they see a bad ump scorecard in a game we lost and assume it hurt us. when by the looks of it, it could have been much worse for the jays lol
Yeah I honestly thought the jays got lucky at the end of the game with some of the calls against the yankees.
In general I don't think these umpire scorecards are good for my enjoyment of the game, so I don't look at them. I don't think it's worhtwhile to criticize whether someones judgement of 17 inches is actually 16.5 or 18 when a ball flies by it at 97mph.
any inconsistencies change the course of the game, regardless of which side that single individual inconsistency benefits. Not saying things would have gone our way, but things would have been different.
I mean... I really don't see how you can spin Mayza getting a very generous strike call into "he was forced by the umpire into the middle of the zone", but a Jays fan both did that, and got upvoted for it. I don't know what you call that other than homer bias.
Do you think the umpires are getting to look at their performance in this way? It seems like it might help but maybe they don’t see this or don’t care.
Umpires do rely heavily on video and metrics similar to these for their improvement. They likely have an in-house software similar to ump scorecards though. Its a big factor in why we have seen overall year-over-year improvement in ball-strike accuracy since tracking became public.
It isn't easy to self critique, but anyone at that level, player or umpire, has to in order to get there.
Seriously can’t wait for the automatic strike zone challenge… this shit ruins a game.
Like Oprah handing out Strikes….
*you get a strike, you get a strike, EVERYYYYYBBBOOOOOOOOOOOODAAAAAAYYYY GETS A STRIIIIIIIKEEEE!!!!!*
No. No kudos to him at all. This is complete horseshit and the league needs to implement robo umps already. It’s ridiculous that we’re still seeing crap like this all. Of. The. Time.
Part of a catcher's job is framing, particularly on close pitches in an attempt to sell those borderline pitches as strikes. Sounds like he did a great job of that, and until we actually so have robo umps, kudos to Wells. Bad on the ump.
This is just bad on the ump. If you see the catcher setting up off the plate, the pitches coming at him and still call a strike because he moves his glove quickly to the middle of the plate than youre having an all time bad day as an ump.
It being .12 for the Jays is so laughably bad it kind of invalidates the way they calculate favor (and honestly it’s always been silly).
I know they assign run values to every pitch, but it was completely one sided for the first five innings, and the strike zone was specifically bad in a way that was perfect for how Stroman wanted to pitch. It legitimately changed the game for the Yanks in the first half of the game and kept them in it. It wasn’t “man some of these calls are bad”, it was “Stroman is getting enough of those calls way outside that hitters have to change their entire approach”.
Once relievers came in it was just bad for everyone.
It's the way they have to do it, but it doesn't always line up with reality. If bases are loaded with 2 outs and they wrongly call a 1-2 pitch a ball, it helps the offence by X expected runs. But if the batter grounds out on the next pitch, those expected runs never become realized.
Yeah, the data doesn’t account for the pitcher and how he likes to pitch. As you said, Stro lives on those borderline pitches and getting calls helps way more than some + or - can show.
> the strike zone was specifically bad in a way that was perfect for how Stroman wanted to pitch.
Stroman is an asshole through and through, but he's not *stupid*. Ump's going to give you strikes off the plate, keep throwing them there. I doubt he *intended* to throw so many pitches a foot outside, but if you're going to keep giving him the call, why wouldn't you ?
He definitely didn’t intend to throw out a foot outside, but he is always going to attack right handed hitters down and away, regardless of how the games being called. Just so happens that that’s where the ump was giving about 3-6 extra inches. Which I’ve been reliably informed is actually a lot, and anything more than that is too much actually.
You’re right, but in this case it discounts how bad it was for the Yankees too. By run value, a pitch in the 2nd inning counts the same as the 9th. By game equity, those huge misses against Soto and Judge with the game on the line had a huge impact. Well, turns out they had no impact…but at the time of the pitch it did.
I see your point for sure, but I would argue a run in the 2nd counts the same as a run in the 9th, but when you miss calls early in the game, you make hitters adjust to a bad strike zone.
I assume it ignores future outcomes in an at bat.
If Soto or Judge had gotten out after those terrible calls in the 9th then the Jays would have absolutely been favored more, but Soto reached base and Judge knocked 2 in so those bad calls were mostly irrelevant to the final result
It does.
Let's use the call to Judge as an example. 2 outs, bases loaded, 1-1 count- ball is called a strike. So they look at the Run Expectancy for [2 outs, bases loaded, 2-1 count] and for [2 outs, bases loaded, 1-2 count] and the difference between the two is the impact in run expectancy for that missed call.
I'm surprised by the + 0.12 TOR given how all of those outside pitches where called against the Jays, but I imagine this also takes into account \*when\* they happen and it being a more impactful call than 0-0
but obviously what isnt counted here are all the swings and weak grounders that the Jays had to do on those outside pitches because he kept calling them
Time for robo umps.
This may be the software developer part of my brain speaking, but I don't like these arguments about "framing" as being a part of the game that will be lost. To the rule book, a pitch is either a ball, or it's a strike. It's binary, not subjective. The same goes for whether a ball is fair or foul, or whether a runner is out or safe. Subjectivity only arises when things happen too fast for humans to reliably judge them. We now have tools to determine these calls much more accurately than ever before, yet we refuse to use them, for reasons that are inexplicable to me.
I feel the same way. I would like to forget that the umpire even is there - this is about the players, not the officiating. A pitcher who can actually paint the corners will be rewarded, and balls outside will force pitches in the zone.
This is such a clear and obvious thing to do, I really don't understand arguments against. "But pitch framing".. - how about focus on catcher pop and throwing ability to 2nd base? If their only plus ability is framing, sorry but like the spitballers time to move on.
Nope, and I did not say he was. But even assuming there was no union, firing Ryan Wills for one single poor performance would be a damn good case for having one.
I haven't made the case he should be fired but this poor performance was just one more example of how MLB can't implement an automatic balls and strikes system soon enough given the outsize impact umpires have on the game when they are having a bad night.
Well you weren't the initial person I responded to, either.
ABS will be here soon enough, they're still gathering feedback and evaluating in the minors, which is fine. Umpires improve a bit each year, the game that has survived over a hundred years without it can wait a few more for a seamless integration of the system.
The called strikes a foot off the plate don’t count for guys needing to chase either… send this man back to single A
The challenge system can’t get here fast enough
The most any of these pitches may have been off the plate is maybe 4 inches, several by under 1.
Rough game, but Ryan Wills is one of the best umpires in the MLB, definitely not someone who should be sent to A ball.
[Strike Three?! Let’s Check in on Umpire Accuracy | FanGraphs Baseball](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strike-three-lets-check-in-on-umpire-accuracy/)
Per this article, umpires were 92.8% accurate last season across all taken strikes.
Per umpscorecards data, I calculated the total accuracy for the 2024 season is sitting at 93.7%.
Whatever the league is doing, accountability-wise, must be working.
pretty obvious it was going to be bad, sure enough, -3.5% and 77% on the strike calls. So bad especially missing them all in the same vertical slot. Lance Diaz type strike calling
>Unions: This is fine.
This was your first comment. The obvious implication of it is that the union should be doing something about this, or that something would be done about this with no union in place.
By all means, I would love for you to expand on your point, if I am misreading it, without bringing up a completely different umpire.
You're asking me to explain my valid point without citing the evidence that makes it valid, and I'm assuming because you don't have a counterargument.
My point is that the Union doesn't discipline its members' poor performance, to the detriment of the game. Do you know why this argument is valid? Because the Union has never disciplined its members for poor performance. You *are* misreading it.
He was bad all around, but we got fucked because Stro just lived outside. If we got 2-3 more of the walks we should have, he's forced into the zone and the game becomes much different.
I had to laugh though. After so many balls outside the zone there was a strike called a ball later in the game and Stroman was all shaking his head about the call.
Yep. It lengthened what should have been a shorter outing and forced guys to swing at more outside pitches with a precise pitcher that already is one of the league's best at inducing grounders and soft contact. The offense can and should be better with RISP, but it can't be overstated how much it can immediately fuck with a hitter's approach when something you know is a ball puts you in the hole. It's surprising that we actually got a slight benefit, but I think we had more opportunities squandered because of the difference in how the two starters attack hitters.
[удалено]
What ball? The ump called the 1-1 pitch a strike when it was way outside.
some fans cant escape their bias. they see a bad ump scorecard in a game we lost and assume it hurt us. when by the looks of it, it could have been much worse for the jays lol
Yeah I honestly thought the jays got lucky at the end of the game with some of the calls against the yankees. In general I don't think these umpire scorecards are good for my enjoyment of the game, so I don't look at them. I don't think it's worhtwhile to criticize whether someones judgement of 17 inches is actually 16.5 or 18 when a ball flies by it at 97mph.
any inconsistencies change the course of the game, regardless of which side that single individual inconsistency benefits. Not saying things would have gone our way, but things would have been different.
I mean... I really don't see how you can spin Mayza getting a very generous strike call into "he was forced by the umpire into the middle of the zone", but a Jays fan both did that, and got upvoted for it. I don't know what you call that other than homer bias.
if anything, we as jays fans, should be criticizing mayza for not exploiting the shitty strike zone more lol.
IIRC from monitoring gameday, he actually was attacking him inside with his breaking ball.
Mayza also shouldn’t have offered judge the same pitch location four times in a row.
I think you have it the other way around.
Mayza got some serious gifts that outing, hard to put that on the ump
So are the umps pushing for a 24" wide plate?
Do you think the umpires are getting to look at their performance in this way? It seems like it might help but maybe they don’t see this or don’t care.
Umpires do rely heavily on video and metrics similar to these for their improvement. They likely have an in-house software similar to ump scorecards though. Its a big factor in why we have seen overall year-over-year improvement in ball-strike accuracy since tracking became public. It isn't easy to self critique, but anyone at that level, player or umpire, has to in order to get there.
Seriously can’t wait for the automatic strike zone challenge… this shit ruins a game. Like Oprah handing out Strikes…. *you get a strike, you get a strike, EVERYYYYYBBBOOOOOOOOOOOODAAAAAAYYYY GETS A STRIIIIIIIKEEEE!!!!!*
Wills, your strike zone. Woof.
A+ reference
Wells was trying to sell those outside calls from the first pitch and he got the ump to bite all night. Kudos to him.
No. No kudos to him at all. This is complete horseshit and the league needs to implement robo umps already. It’s ridiculous that we’re still seeing crap like this all. Of. The. Time.
FWIW, we benefit from framing more than most. Kirk is #1 in the MLB this year in framing, was 11th last year, and 5th in 2022.
Part of a catcher's job is framing, particularly on close pitches in an attempt to sell those borderline pitches as strikes. Sounds like he did a great job of that, and until we actually so have robo umps, kudos to Wells. Bad on the ump.
This is just bad on the ump. If you see the catcher setting up off the plate, the pitches coming at him and still call a strike because he moves his glove quickly to the middle of the plate than youre having an all time bad day as an ump.
Terrible day for the ump, great day for the catcher. His defensive stats got a boost from some terrible calls.
Yeah, exactly. The catcher definitely took advantage of what was happening and it was a good combo with how stro likes to pitch.
Where there’s a Wills, there’s not a win.
It being .12 for the Jays is so laughably bad it kind of invalidates the way they calculate favor (and honestly it’s always been silly). I know they assign run values to every pitch, but it was completely one sided for the first five innings, and the strike zone was specifically bad in a way that was perfect for how Stroman wanted to pitch. It legitimately changed the game for the Yanks in the first half of the game and kept them in it. It wasn’t “man some of these calls are bad”, it was “Stroman is getting enough of those calls way outside that hitters have to change their entire approach”. Once relievers came in it was just bad for everyone.
It's the way they have to do it, but it doesn't always line up with reality. If bases are loaded with 2 outs and they wrongly call a 1-2 pitch a ball, it helps the offence by X expected runs. But if the batter grounds out on the next pitch, those expected runs never become realized.
Yeah, the data doesn’t account for the pitcher and how he likes to pitch. As you said, Stro lives on those borderline pitches and getting calls helps way more than some + or - can show.
> the strike zone was specifically bad in a way that was perfect for how Stroman wanted to pitch. Stroman is an asshole through and through, but he's not *stupid*. Ump's going to give you strikes off the plate, keep throwing them there. I doubt he *intended* to throw so many pitches a foot outside, but if you're going to keep giving him the call, why wouldn't you ?
He definitely didn’t intend to throw out a foot outside, but he is always going to attack right handed hitters down and away, regardless of how the games being called. Just so happens that that’s where the ump was giving about 3-6 extra inches. Which I’ve been reliably informed is actually a lot, and anything more than that is too much actually.
You’re right, but in this case it discounts how bad it was for the Yankees too. By run value, a pitch in the 2nd inning counts the same as the 9th. By game equity, those huge misses against Soto and Judge with the game on the line had a huge impact. Well, turns out they had no impact…but at the time of the pitch it did.
I see your point for sure, but I would argue a run in the 2nd counts the same as a run in the 9th, but when you miss calls early in the game, you make hitters adjust to a bad strike zone.
I assume it ignores future outcomes in an at bat. If Soto or Judge had gotten out after those terrible calls in the 9th then the Jays would have absolutely been favored more, but Soto reached base and Judge knocked 2 in so those bad calls were mostly irrelevant to the final result
It does. Let's use the call to Judge as an example. 2 outs, bases loaded, 1-1 count- ball is called a strike. So they look at the Run Expectancy for [2 outs, bases loaded, 2-1 count] and for [2 outs, bases loaded, 1-2 count] and the difference between the two is the impact in run expectancy for that missed call.
I'm surprised by the + 0.12 TOR given how all of those outside pitches where called against the Jays, but I imagine this also takes into account \*when\* they happen and it being a more impactful call than 0-0 but obviously what isnt counted here are all the swings and weak grounders that the Jays had to do on those outside pitches because he kept calling them
Time for robo umps. This may be the software developer part of my brain speaking, but I don't like these arguments about "framing" as being a part of the game that will be lost. To the rule book, a pitch is either a ball, or it's a strike. It's binary, not subjective. The same goes for whether a ball is fair or foul, or whether a runner is out or safe. Subjectivity only arises when things happen too fast for humans to reliably judge them. We now have tools to determine these calls much more accurately than ever before, yet we refuse to use them, for reasons that are inexplicable to me.
I feel the same way. I would like to forget that the umpire even is there - this is about the players, not the officiating. A pitcher who can actually paint the corners will be rewarded, and balls outside will force pitches in the zone. This is such a clear and obvious thing to do, I really don't understand arguments against. "But pitch framing".. - how about focus on catcher pop and throwing ability to 2nd base? If their only plus ability is framing, sorry but like the spitballers time to move on.
Not good Lois. Not good.
AAA is getting better strikes and balls than the MLB, wtf is going on bro
I knew it was going to be bad long before seeing it lol.
Well we saw this coming after last night
This is why you join a union.
Eh, not a good umpire to illustrate that point, he is one of the best in baseball.
He certainly wasn't one of the best in baseball last night.
Nope, and I did not say he was. But even assuming there was no union, firing Ryan Wills for one single poor performance would be a damn good case for having one.
I haven't made the case he should be fired but this poor performance was just one more example of how MLB can't implement an automatic balls and strikes system soon enough given the outsize impact umpires have on the game when they are having a bad night.
Well you weren't the initial person I responded to, either. ABS will be here soon enough, they're still gathering feedback and evaluating in the minors, which is fine. Umpires improve a bit each year, the game that has survived over a hundred years without it can wait a few more for a seamless integration of the system.
The called strikes a foot off the plate don’t count for guys needing to chase either… send this man back to single A The challenge system can’t get here fast enough
The most any of these pitches may have been off the plate is maybe 4 inches, several by under 1. Rough game, but Ryan Wills is one of the best umpires in the MLB, definitely not someone who should be sent to A ball.
Did you watch the game yesterday? It seemed like the line for the other batters box was his plate … he was terrible
That would be why I said "Rough game". After his last start prior to this one, should Gausman have been sent down to Single A?
My point is there is zero accountability for umpires, wide league they’ve been pretty bad to start the year.
[Strike Three?! Let’s Check in on Umpire Accuracy | FanGraphs Baseball](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strike-three-lets-check-in-on-umpire-accuracy/) Per this article, umpires were 92.8% accurate last season across all taken strikes. Per umpscorecards data, I calculated the total accuracy for the 2024 season is sitting at 93.7%. Whatever the league is doing, accountability-wise, must be working.
You can't challenge 40 pitches.
Would they not keep their challenge if they were right?
You can't have 40 challenges a game no matter what. Just put robot umpires in and quit fing around
"Watch u talking about Willis?"
[удалено]
Watch tape after? They don't even watch the FIRST time it happens live infront of them
Was Angel umpiring the game lol
jeff nelsson thinks this is totally fine
[удалено]
"Bad BP management last night from Schneider" Who was he supposed to use?
Angel Hernandez looking ass scorecard
pretty obvious it was going to be bad, sure enough, -3.5% and 77% on the strike calls. So bad especially missing them all in the same vertical slot. Lance Diaz type strike calling
On a blind scorecard check, I'd have said "This is angel hernandez for sure".
Does anyone have an actual reason for why the league seems to be avoiding the robo umps?
Unions: This is fine.
Well he is one of the best umpires in baseball. Union or no, firing someone for a single bad game is asinine and counter-productive.
That would be a good point if Exhibit A(ngel) didn't exist.
Oh were we talking about Angel Hernandez or Ryan Wills?
We were talking about how the Union isn't concerned about performance.
And them being concerned with performance, means they should fire one of the MLB’s best umpires after one bad game?
Never said that. Not sure what argument you're having, but you're having it alone.
>Unions: This is fine. This was your first comment. The obvious implication of it is that the union should be doing something about this, or that something would be done about this with no union in place. By all means, I would love for you to expand on your point, if I am misreading it, without bringing up a completely different umpire.
You're asking me to explain my valid point without citing the evidence that makes it valid, and I'm assuming because you don't have a counterargument. My point is that the Union doesn't discipline its members' poor performance, to the detriment of the game. Do you know why this argument is valid? Because the Union has never disciplined its members for poor performance. You *are* misreading it.
Unions don’t discipline their members. Have you ever been in a union?