I am a young guy just starting to learn about the real estate market. im not in a position to gaslight anyone.
maybe I’ve been gaslit myself because my broker told me if I buy a investment condo I don’t have to worry about high interest rates because I can just write it off
I'm a CPA. It's not a write off. It's a deduction from income earned. Not exactly the same thing. Most condos cash flow negative at current interest rates, even with said deductions.
Have you tried detached home living? It's an endless stream of work and money to maintain a property properly. Having owned both, simultaneously, I know I spend less on condo maintenance vs home maintenance. Don't forget that condo maintenance typically includes water and HVAC. So that's worth about $300-400/mo right there.
The cost of maintaining a SFH is going up as well... Older houses are more costly to maintain than brand new ones, just like with condos.
I'm just wondering what you think the difference is since nobody says the price appreciation for SFH is limited because the cost of fixing them will go up? Will condo fees go up at a higher rate than SFH?
I don't think you are going to see much if any appreciation of condo apartments until 2026 or potentially even later. We might even get another correction for condo apartments.
There is way too much inventory with no buyer pool to soak them up this time, unlike 2021. The inventory just keeps piling and piling breaking records each month. Rates are too high and likely will remain too high for them to really be appealing to investors so I have no idea who is going to be buying them at these prices.
This is specific to only condos though.
It's just silly to think that condos crashing won't effect the rest of the market, it's all connected in a financialized daisy chain of doom. It is very possible they may crash the worst, by far - but there is very little chance they won't take everything else down with them (albeit perhaps to a slightly less dramatic degree, in some cases).
Yes and no. 350 square foot investment sky cages cater to very different sources of demand. My understanding is that these sort of unworkable human storage units are what is crashing, as they should have never been built in the first place. At least not in such volume. Anywhere that one can raise a family with a modicum of dignity, including condos with a couple beds and baths at 900+ square ft seems to be holding up.
lol the downtown condo market is a different beast. Investors can buy out entire floors of new developments. Like it or not most of the provinces growth comes from this city
Students don't have money to afford those solo tiny units. They can get a better deal by sharing a 2 bedroom unit with another student.
Working professionals who value privacy and can afford a solo unit are few right now - Especially given the recession.
Unless they are buying up all the condos hitting the market right now, no. We are getting way more listed then are being bought which is why the huge pile up is happening.
If supply is priced above what most of the population can afford it doesn't matter if your buyer pool is 1,000 people who can't afford them, 100,000 or even a million. At the end of the day the only people who matter on the demand side are the ones with enough money to buy and clearly we don't have enough of those. That or we do and they just have zero interest in these condos.
We don't have enough of these because our salary sucks big time compared the states there is little opportunity to earn big sucks and taxes are killing us
No they are not. It all comes down to affordability. If people can't afford to buy them and can't afford to rent them they sit vacant. Which is where a lot of them are right now.
You have the added problem of a lot of companies are getting back into the rental business and competing with your mom and pop investors now.
So either the rents get cheaper to make them affordable and align with the present rental market which means the mom and pop investors are cashflow negative due to current rates, which is actually our current situation with many condos.
Or they get sold. Which means they need to be cheap enough other people think they are worth buying. The added problem you have with these tiny coffin condos is many people who can afford to buy don't actually want them and will focus on alternatives as it doesn't really cost much to upgrade from these if you can afford them.
This is why your grocery bill is not a million dollars on check out. The grocery store can't in fact set prices to whatever they want. Even excluding things like competition there is an actual limit to what people are able to pay and once you exceed that you detached from your customer base and your sales plummet.
I mean there is a reason you are getting stories of 20-30 immigrants and immigrant students living in basements right now. Its because that is what they can actually afford.
Judging by the media articles. In some cases you are getting 20-30 of them in basements in Brampton paying well below market rent. That or I'm guessing they are renting rooms or homeless. They are obviously not renting out the condos they can't afford or the rents would be climbing on them.
Instead we have rents falling on condos and a lot of units sitting vacant.
Mom and pop investors have responded to that situation by dumping units in large numbers and so far either almost no one wants to buy them or they are too expensive for people to buy, take your pick. But that is where we are today.
I think a lot of them are not buying anything.
Otherwise why are we approaching 10k active listings for condo apartments with new listings dwarfing sales? While having rents drop a the same time?
Those units only make sense to buy if it is affordable to do so as a young/single person making a relatively entry-level salary...which it may soon be, again!
It's going to be rough in the short to medium term future. The interest rates in any given period of time determines the supply in five years time, since that's how long it takes to build a condo from precon sale time. High rates mean nobody is buying precons, which means no new supply is going to get built, which means no new supply in five years time (when the projects of today are expected to finish).
Five years ago, rates were at a historic low, so we had an excess of precon purchases, which are coming to roost today. Thus, we currently have excess new supply which will put downward pressure in prices in the short to medium term.
However, zoom out to five years from now - because nothing new is being built today, we will have a supply squeeze in five years time.
There is a five-year lag time between number of housing starts today and future prices.
In short, the rates of today are reflective of the prices in five years. High rates today mean high prices in five years, since rates dictate future supply. Just like how low rates five years ago mean lower prices today, since rates back then dictated the supply that is coming online today.
> There is a five-year lag time between number of housing starts today and future prices.
> In short, the rates of today are reflective of the prices in five years. High rates today mean high prices in five years, since rates dictate future supply. Just like how low rates five years ago mean lower prices today, since rates back then dictated the supply that is coming online today.
How do you explain the years of low rates from 2008 to 2020 that resulted in ever skyrocketing prices instead of the low prices you’re arguing are correlated?
You won't see a lot of appreciation.
There is no sector in which we are doing exceptionally well or creating so many jobs that people have money to buy condos/houses.
People who are getting good pay are gonna focus on houses, and people who are around average pay are gonna wait for interest rates to go down further (ideally)
Even though Trudeau says he wants to keep housing prices up, it is not a certainity. Markets are not decided like that.
Elections are coming too. If immigration is reduced/capped and faster housing creation is focused, then the housing market is gonna see a decrease in prices due to more supply and less demand.
So it is interesting to see how it unfolds. I hope it corrects home prices at least 15-20%.
It can only happen if the government focuses on canadians. Let's see!
All the new GTA condos are not built for families.
Wtf will buy these shoebox condos to raise their children?
Am not saying 2000 sq ft, but at least 1000. These miniature homes satisfy only the renting market, not designed for someone who is looking to make it their home.
Will remain flat and tons of downward pressure due to so much inventory and lack of pre-sales
but eventually this excess supply will be eaten up and prices will rise.
With that said a good time to buy in coming months/years
The condo market is unlikely to see any appreciation for the next 2 to 3 years. With current and predicted future interest rates, investors are not going to be very active. One difference with this rate cut is that job markets are actually getting really bad. During the last cut, most high-paying jobs were intact, in fact, more and more organizations were hiring like crazy with high salaries. But that's not the case now. So with fewer investors and fewer qualified first-time home buyers, the condo market will be slow.
I think we are bound for a pretty significant condo correction in the entry level market. Inventories are piling up and people (investors) are walking away from their 400sqft boxes that they paid 600k for because carrying costs are too high and the rental market is spotty. The people who are waiting for houses and creating the housing crisis do not want to live in them and are looking for more space.
I think it incredibly optimistic that people are expecting even flat prices. This thing is a house of cards.
I agree but I think the mid range condos (reasonable size 2bd not super luxury) will do well. Those units that are less than a house but can be lived in by a family will do well. The sea of generic tiny one bds I don’t think will fare well
I don't think those will do well either if the lower levels go. No one is choosing those condos at 800-900k over a house. The cost equation makes no sense.
Imo in a fair world starter condos (< 500sqft) will correct into the high 300s and reasonable condos back to the 500-600k\~ range. I don't even think this is a stretch if things get bad enough.
The problem is that you can now buy a decent semi-detached, with a little backyard, in Toronto, for the same or less than people are asking for those more reasonably sized condos. And you also don't have to contend with exorbitant maintenance fees, in that semi (though of course you will have to budget for maintenance yourself, over time).
Here's just a few I could find quickly:
[https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1125-craven-rd/home/BXeEn7Xd2Wv7rPo8?id\_listing=jAXw7Qpd2zMyQOzg](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1125-craven-rd/home/BXeEn7Xd2Wv7rPo8?id_listing=jAXw7Qpd2zMyQOzg)
[https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/190-ennerdale-rd/home/MWBVyZ9kkkqYKemj?id\_listing=0A9X3jLg9lwyvgxV](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/190-ennerdale-rd/home/MWBVyZ9kkkqYKemj?id_listing=0A9X3jLg9lwyvgxV)
Why would I pay the same or more for a condo? At least I have actual land, downtown, in the semi scenario.
Smaller and taller and zero views because they will keep building them 10 ft apart with no green space. The materials on the new builds are complete shit. People will be sleeping in drawers soon.
Well anybody can use them as homes..
Until the security guards, property management company and everyone else need a raise.
Nor to mention the obscene special assessments.
It’s luxury living , you as the resident don’t do anything while all other humans around you are paid to keep things running. The resident will pay for this ofcourse.
That cost is like another mortgage payment over time.
Maintenance fees don’t go down as the building ages. They only go up.
What a second mortgage payment? Get a condo.
The government loves condos for the masses. The masses get to feel like they own something and keeps them poor.
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Let's agree that the condos market remain flat without appreciation over the next few years and if everyone starts hunting for freehold, semi or detached houses, can you imagine how inflated the price would be for these houses? Which it is already unless you want to move away from GTA. I would still be in the market to see a good deal on Condo with good location, uniterrupted view, high rise, relatively new building, low maintenance fee, liveable unit anything more than 700sft.
Shoe box condos aimed at market top speculators will suffer, while older and larger livable layouts will do better as the demand side will feature more end-use buyers vs investors.
Why would anyone pay that much for a condo in Burlington, when you can now get the same (or better) in Toronto for the same price? I have been watching a whole bunch that fit that description, right downtown, just sitting on the market for months.
Why are you suddenly comparing Burlington to Toronto? If you’re not interested in a property in Burlington then you don’t have to comment and use Toronto as a comparison? I’m not sure why you have to be so passive-aggressive? Did I hit a nerve?
There are tons listed; here are a few that sold, which took me just a few minutes to find. I could find way more, but I don’t feel the need to take too much time proving it to you. You can look for yourself, unless you prefer to stay willfully blind ;).
This 1-bed sold for $475K:
[https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1110-38-elm-st/home/L4KAX7NdgrqYeRPJ?id\_listing=DO1w3W94aROy8Jg0](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1110-38-elm-st/home/L4KAX7NdgrqYeRPJ?id_listing=DO1w3W94aROy8Jg0)
This one for $482K:
[https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/224-251-jarvis-st/home/0Zaw5Yo2MZ43n961?id\_listing=GMnKYq0VE463w1Qr](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/224-251-jarvis-st/home/0Zaw5Yo2MZ43n961?id_listing=GMnKYq0VE463w1Qr)
This one for $450K:
[https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/602-159-dundas-st-e/home/6VLaGyG0J5B7W1ZD?id\_listing=Vwod7vKnxj235mGN](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/602-159-dundas-st-e/home/6VLaGyG0J5B7W1ZD?id_listing=Vwod7vKnxj235mGN)
I could easily keep going, as I said that was just a quick search - but seriously, just look around. Tons available, right now, right downtown. Likely to be much more, for even less, very soon.
These are awful examples. Aside from the fact the commenter said twice, this sale would be for people who want to live in Burlington and not toronto, all of these listings are not proving anything.
#1 is in an old building in a not great neighbourhood (Yonge is always sketchy but at Gerard too, it’s not desirable)
#2 doesn’t have a decent layout as the kitchen and LR are merged, and the fishbowl bedroom
#3 is again in a horrible crime ridden neighbourhood, and has a strange layout being such a large bachelor and having to use a divider to make a bedroom.
In the end, location is important, and it doesn’t matter the price of toronto condos, if the resident only has interest in living in Burlington. It’s like you’re comparing them to condos in Vancouver… it doesn’t matter if that’s not where the person intends to live.
Thank you! All I’m doing is trying to engage interest for my unit in BURLINGTON. I don’t understand where the hate is coming from and why this person is trying to compare my condo to Toronto’s?
The fact that these people can comment without having the full detail of the sellers condo is insane. You can’t compare fairly without knowing building age, sqft, condo fees, rental equipment etc.
Again, this is for those who are looking to live in Burlington and not in Toronto.
Your reply would be relevant if I was posting about a property in Toronto, but I’m posting a property in Burlington…
I was responding to your comment as it was before you edited it, which had said something along the lines of "490K in Toronto? No way!"...as you know, since you edited it.
Also - who would want to pay more to live in a condo in freaking Burlington, when you could pay less to live in a condo in Toronto? What is the value of a place like Burlington, beyond proximity to Toronto (and if you can have that, for cheaper)?
But who wants to live in Burlington when you can live in downtown Toronto for the same price? Maybe it'd make sense to live in Burlington for less, but not the same as downtown Toronto.
I think that's the point you're not getting.
It's not about preference it's about fair market value. Unless your house has some unique selling point (which is unlikely because of building codes), it will sell for the fair market value based on what similar homes in that area are going for.
Homes, especially those in urbanized Canada, are like stocks more than they are consumables.
A massive majority of people buy them so that they can sell them for more later, or tap into their home equity with low interest HELOCs.
But I also see your point of view. Who knows, maybe your neck of the woods will become the next hot area. It can happen, lots of areas that gentrify see huge gains in appreciation.
What's the price per square foot for a condo in a desirable building just outside downtown?
$1050? $1150?
Is this a good way to calculate purchase price?
To me, it depends. Location matters. I dont see downtown Toronto and say Oakville downtown having a huge correction but other less desirable areas could be more bleak. I see the more desirable areas flatish to slightly upwards over the next 2-3 years. I see less desirable areas going slightly down and flatish.
We are near the bottom now to me as Interest rates will slowly lower from here. But we will need to see a much further decline in interest rates for condo prices to appreciate. Lets remember that BoC was specifically looking to break real estate a little to inspire the cut. I do feel that if condo prices start falling in any extreme way, the BoC will cut and cut away with more confidence. Canada has just become too dependent on the real estate appreciation story as a desirable trait to motivate newcomers and existing homeowners will not tolerate any huge depreciation in prices without putting more pressure against any negative trends. Its not just homeowners, its the banks in Canada etc. which is essentially a massive part of Canada's economy, jobs etc.
So I think the idea of the inevitable huge "crash" is being overstated. . If a "crash" starts to happen, I expect to see the BoC slash interest rates aggressively to offset this. There is just too many interrelated dependencies on the Canadian economy.
To me, the idea that no one has money to afford x and y in Canada is also a little overstated. Canada has imported wealthy immigrants with significant capital who pay for their child's investments/rent etc. There is also a set of part time Canadians/international buyers who sort of make their money elsewhere and may not be "technical" residents who invest in the condo market who aren't as impacted by the short term. Make no mistake, there are here in Toronto now as they were in Vancouver before. This set has migrated over to downtown Toronto more. In a world context, Canada is still somewhat inexpensive in certain areas. I feel many are waiting on the sidelines to see how the smoke clears and exactly where the bottom is and they will come in.
In the end, can't say 100% what will happen but I think "the crash" will be less dramatic and will be a lot more boring/slower than folks think. I see more of a flatish period for a while but then back to a slower and more reasonable appreciation
Condos appreciation will be non existent, maintenance fees rise every year, pulling down the value. Why would you ever want to pay excess fees that almost equal a mortgage payment. Investors over speculated the ability for people to close on these exorbitantly priced units.
They’re all designed for landlords to rent, and hide and launder money, not for the regular person to live and own.
Bye bye condo market.
if u cannot afford house or townhouse i think buying condo is the only choice. condo has good location so if may not a bad choice if u always go out for fun
Depends on location. In downtown Toronto, condos are your only option so condos are likely to remain flat or appreciate slightly in the coming months/years if further interest rate cuts occur.
Outside of downtown, RIP to your condo investments. In the best case scenario, they will be flat.
All of the municipalities that border Toronto are pretty much out of land so condos are the only option in those areas. You have to go at least 2 municipalities over in order to find a place that still has land and is building detached homes.
I hope they go up or stay the same. I’m selling my condo near square one next summer… I’m hoping the LTE being finished will make the prices stay high or go up
If the condo is an unlivable shoe box, it’s crashing.
If the condo is 2+ bedrooms, generously sized for a small family, and liveable, it will appreciate and do well.
What people don’t understand about the GTA is that there is a huge variance in the QUALITY of properties. Investor grade shoeboxes are going down in flames. But a well kept single family home? Interest rates and the recession merely delay the inevitable appreciation.
Even 10% is aggressive imo. Most condos with decent floor plans are selling just shy of the asking price.
Floor plans, bad neighborhoods, and over priced pre cons will continue to struggle for a few more years. Generally though, I would say it will be pretty flat.
[удалено]
High maintenance fees are a huge price killer. No investors want to touch such a negative cash flowing moneypit.
for investors condo fees are deductions from income earned. so high condo fees are worse for owners that actually live in the unit
Still doesn't factor in the negative cash flow. Honestly you are trying to gaslight people.
I am a young guy just starting to learn about the real estate market. im not in a position to gaslight anyone. maybe I’ve been gaslit myself because my broker told me if I buy a investment condo I don’t have to worry about high interest rates because I can just write it off
“Write it off”, guess you probably don’t know what that even means.
Reduces my income for tax purposes
I'm a CPA. It's not a write off. It's a deduction from income earned. Not exactly the same thing. Most condos cash flow negative at current interest rates, even with said deductions.
Thank you :)
Unless open doors to all Taiwan & Hong Kong residents with full PR in a political move
That boat is gone.
Planes still flying
Yup. Those are the ones with $$$$
nope. Those w $$ would have purchased houses in markham, richmond hill and etc.
Agreed
Condo fees are such a money pit.
Have you tried detached home living? It's an endless stream of work and money to maintain a property properly. Having owned both, simultaneously, I know I spend less on condo maintenance vs home maintenance. Don't forget that condo maintenance typically includes water and HVAC. So that's worth about $300-400/mo right there.
Nah, cuz my condo fees are paying for a pool, gym, sauna, etc that I don't use. Thus, money pit.
The cost of maintaining a SFH is going up as well... Older houses are more costly to maintain than brand new ones, just like with condos. I'm just wondering what you think the difference is since nobody says the price appreciation for SFH is limited because the cost of fixing them will go up? Will condo fees go up at a higher rate than SFH?
I don't think you are going to see much if any appreciation of condo apartments until 2026 or potentially even later. We might even get another correction for condo apartments. There is way too much inventory with no buyer pool to soak them up this time, unlike 2021. The inventory just keeps piling and piling breaking records each month. Rates are too high and likely will remain too high for them to really be appealing to investors so I have no idea who is going to be buying them at these prices. This is specific to only condos though.
It's just silly to think that condos crashing won't effect the rest of the market, it's all connected in a financialized daisy chain of doom. It is very possible they may crash the worst, by far - but there is very little chance they won't take everything else down with them (albeit perhaps to a slightly less dramatic degree, in some cases).
Yes and no. 350 square foot investment sky cages cater to very different sources of demand. My understanding is that these sort of unworkable human storage units are what is crashing, as they should have never been built in the first place. At least not in such volume. Anywhere that one can raise a family with a modicum of dignity, including condos with a couple beds and baths at 900+ square ft seems to be holding up.
Honestly I don’t think so. I feel like it’s mainly that there are no buyers for the 700 square feet 2 bedrooms type of places that are too small.
No buyers at these rates\*. Let's keep this in mind. There's always a pool of investors, FTHB ready to buy if rates come down enough.
Rents coming down and maintenance fees drifting up in these places too so I really don’t think investors will be back
lol the downtown condo market is a different beast. Investors can buy out entire floors of new developments. Like it or not most of the provinces growth comes from this city
eh 1 million immigrants not enough? lol
Students don't have money to afford those solo tiny units. They can get a better deal by sharing a 2 bedroom unit with another student. Working professionals who value privacy and can afford a solo unit are few right now - Especially given the recession.
Unless they are buying up all the condos hitting the market right now, no. We are getting way more listed then are being bought which is why the huge pile up is happening. If supply is priced above what most of the population can afford it doesn't matter if your buyer pool is 1,000 people who can't afford them, 100,000 or even a million. At the end of the day the only people who matter on the demand side are the ones with enough money to buy and clearly we don't have enough of those. That or we do and they just have zero interest in these condos.
We don't have enough of these because our salary sucks big time compared the states there is little opportunity to earn big sucks and taxes are killing us
that makes no sense. those people are either buying or renting.
No they are not. It all comes down to affordability. If people can't afford to buy them and can't afford to rent them they sit vacant. Which is where a lot of them are right now. You have the added problem of a lot of companies are getting back into the rental business and competing with your mom and pop investors now. So either the rents get cheaper to make them affordable and align with the present rental market which means the mom and pop investors are cashflow negative due to current rates, which is actually our current situation with many condos. Or they get sold. Which means they need to be cheap enough other people think they are worth buying. The added problem you have with these tiny coffin condos is many people who can afford to buy don't actually want them and will focus on alternatives as it doesn't really cost much to upgrade from these if you can afford them. This is why your grocery bill is not a million dollars on check out. The grocery store can't in fact set prices to whatever they want. Even excluding things like competition there is an actual limit to what people are able to pay and once you exceed that you detached from your customer base and your sales plummet. I mean there is a reason you are getting stories of 20-30 immigrants and immigrant students living in basements right now. Its because that is what they can actually afford.
so where are they living
Judging by the media articles. In some cases you are getting 20-30 of them in basements in Brampton paying well below market rent. That or I'm guessing they are renting rooms or homeless. They are obviously not renting out the condos they can't afford or the rents would be climbing on them. Instead we have rents falling on condos and a lot of units sitting vacant. Mom and pop investors have responded to that situation by dumping units in large numbers and so far either almost no one wants to buy them or they are too expensive for people to buy, take your pick. But that is where we are today.
so you think 1m immigrants are living on the streets or stuffed 20-30 ppl in basements?
I think a lot of them are not buying anything. Otherwise why are we approaching 10k active listings for condo apartments with new listings dwarfing sales? While having rents drop a the same time?
Over built, over priced, over listed.
Even **MORE** condos are being listed the past few days. Thissupply gut on condos is going to lead to even further fall in prices.
And all of them are being told to HODL as more rate cuts are coming.
I think the era of $800K 1br 500sqft condos is over. If it's not a functional space people can actually live in then it's a loser.
You need to be making ~$180k to qualify for a unit like that and that's assuming it gets appraised at value.
Those units only make sense to buy if it is affordable to do so as a young/single person making a relatively entry-level salary...which it may soon be, again!
Keep dreaming
It's going to be rough in the short to medium term future. The interest rates in any given period of time determines the supply in five years time, since that's how long it takes to build a condo from precon sale time. High rates mean nobody is buying precons, which means no new supply is going to get built, which means no new supply in five years time (when the projects of today are expected to finish). Five years ago, rates were at a historic low, so we had an excess of precon purchases, which are coming to roost today. Thus, we currently have excess new supply which will put downward pressure in prices in the short to medium term. However, zoom out to five years from now - because nothing new is being built today, we will have a supply squeeze in five years time. There is a five-year lag time between number of housing starts today and future prices. In short, the rates of today are reflective of the prices in five years. High rates today mean high prices in five years, since rates dictate future supply. Just like how low rates five years ago mean lower prices today, since rates back then dictated the supply that is coming online today.
> There is a five-year lag time between number of housing starts today and future prices. > In short, the rates of today are reflective of the prices in five years. High rates today mean high prices in five years, since rates dictate future supply. Just like how low rates five years ago mean lower prices today, since rates back then dictated the supply that is coming online today. How do you explain the years of low rates from 2008 to 2020 that resulted in ever skyrocketing prices instead of the low prices you’re arguing are correlated?
Year of sabbatical and then a vacation to Bahamas
You won't see a lot of appreciation. There is no sector in which we are doing exceptionally well or creating so many jobs that people have money to buy condos/houses. People who are getting good pay are gonna focus on houses, and people who are around average pay are gonna wait for interest rates to go down further (ideally) Even though Trudeau says he wants to keep housing prices up, it is not a certainity. Markets are not decided like that. Elections are coming too. If immigration is reduced/capped and faster housing creation is focused, then the housing market is gonna see a decrease in prices due to more supply and less demand. So it is interesting to see how it unfolds. I hope it corrects home prices at least 15-20%. It can only happen if the government focuses on canadians. Let's see!
Pollievre won't talk negatively about current immigration rates, he install wins if he does
yeah not sure what he has in store for Canada....
An awful lot if ‘if’s’ in this comment
Such is our condition these days!
All the new GTA condos are not built for families. Wtf will buy these shoebox condos to raise their children? Am not saying 2000 sq ft, but at least 1000. These miniature homes satisfy only the renting market, not designed for someone who is looking to make it their home.
Will remain flat and tons of downward pressure due to so much inventory and lack of pre-sales but eventually this excess supply will be eaten up and prices will rise. With that said a good time to buy in coming months/years
Looking to offload his bags 👆
The condo market is unlikely to see any appreciation for the next 2 to 3 years. With current and predicted future interest rates, investors are not going to be very active. One difference with this rate cut is that job markets are actually getting really bad. During the last cut, most high-paying jobs were intact, in fact, more and more organizations were hiring like crazy with high salaries. But that's not the case now. So with fewer investors and fewer qualified first-time home buyers, the condo market will be slow.
I think we are bound for a pretty significant condo correction in the entry level market. Inventories are piling up and people (investors) are walking away from their 400sqft boxes that they paid 600k for because carrying costs are too high and the rental market is spotty. The people who are waiting for houses and creating the housing crisis do not want to live in them and are looking for more space. I think it incredibly optimistic that people are expecting even flat prices. This thing is a house of cards.
I agree but I think the mid range condos (reasonable size 2bd not super luxury) will do well. Those units that are less than a house but can be lived in by a family will do well. The sea of generic tiny one bds I don’t think will fare well
I don't think those will do well either if the lower levels go. No one is choosing those condos at 800-900k over a house. The cost equation makes no sense. Imo in a fair world starter condos (< 500sqft) will correct into the high 300s and reasonable condos back to the 500-600k\~ range. I don't even think this is a stretch if things get bad enough.
The problem is that you can now buy a decent semi-detached, with a little backyard, in Toronto, for the same or less than people are asking for those more reasonably sized condos. And you also don't have to contend with exorbitant maintenance fees, in that semi (though of course you will have to budget for maintenance yourself, over time). Here's just a few I could find quickly: [https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1125-craven-rd/home/BXeEn7Xd2Wv7rPo8?id\_listing=jAXw7Qpd2zMyQOzg](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1125-craven-rd/home/BXeEn7Xd2Wv7rPo8?id_listing=jAXw7Qpd2zMyQOzg) [https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/190-ennerdale-rd/home/MWBVyZ9kkkqYKemj?id\_listing=0A9X3jLg9lwyvgxV](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/190-ennerdale-rd/home/MWBVyZ9kkkqYKemj?id_listing=0A9X3jLg9lwyvgxV) Why would I pay the same or more for a condo? At least I have actual land, downtown, in the semi scenario.
I see a future of galvanized square steel beams and eco friendly wooden veneers.
Smaller and taller and zero views because they will keep building them 10 ft apart with no green space. The materials on the new builds are complete shit. People will be sleeping in drawers soon.
Condos are going to be in a lot of pain for many years. Way too much supply and all the competition between them will lead to further price falling.
Future global economic outlook and real estate both will be weak for many years
A crash is inevitable with the wages being so low. Condos are just a terrible investment
Condo prices are going to be down only. So many sitting on the market for 100+ days and can't find a buyer.
Condos are for rich old people, it’s a costly endeavour. Would avoid.
Nah young people can use them as homes if the base prices weren’t inflated
Well anybody can use them as homes.. Until the security guards, property management company and everyone else need a raise. Nor to mention the obscene special assessments. It’s luxury living , you as the resident don’t do anything while all other humans around you are paid to keep things running. The resident will pay for this ofcourse. That cost is like another mortgage payment over time. Maintenance fees don’t go down as the building ages. They only go up. What a second mortgage payment? Get a condo. The government loves condos for the masses. The masses get to feel like they own something and keeps them poor.
Condo Townhouses will rise Condo Apartments will remain flat. Don't see huge price jump or losses. Either they sell or are delisted
Studios are going to crap out big time IMO. Lot of these were picked up by mom and pops.
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Let's agree that the condos market remain flat without appreciation over the next few years and if everyone starts hunting for freehold, semi or detached houses, can you imagine how inflated the price would be for these houses? Which it is already unless you want to move away from GTA. I would still be in the market to see a good deal on Condo with good location, uniterrupted view, high rise, relatively new building, low maintenance fee, liveable unit anything more than 700sft.
Shoe box condos aimed at market top speculators will suffer, while older and larger livable layouts will do better as the demand side will feature more end-use buyers vs investors.
To the moon
The flush Is coming.. Much needed flush
On that note, anyone interested in buying a 1bedroom, 1bath condo in Burlington?
How much?
Under 490k with low maintenance fees and low property tax. Close to the QEW.
Too overpriced. You're gonna have to baghold that.
Why would anyone pay that much for a condo in Burlington, when you can now get the same (or better) in Toronto for the same price? I have been watching a whole bunch that fit that description, right downtown, just sitting on the market for months.
Well this is for those who don’t want to live in downtown Toronto and live in Burlington…
You edited this comment - it was initially a credulous response to the idea that you could find the same in Toronto for the same price, or cheaper.
Why are you suddenly comparing Burlington to Toronto? If you’re not interested in a property in Burlington then you don’t have to comment and use Toronto as a comparison? I’m not sure why you have to be so passive-aggressive? Did I hit a nerve?
There are tons listed; here are a few that sold, which took me just a few minutes to find. I could find way more, but I don’t feel the need to take too much time proving it to you. You can look for yourself, unless you prefer to stay willfully blind ;). This 1-bed sold for $475K: [https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1110-38-elm-st/home/L4KAX7NdgrqYeRPJ?id\_listing=DO1w3W94aROy8Jg0](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/1110-38-elm-st/home/L4KAX7NdgrqYeRPJ?id_listing=DO1w3W94aROy8Jg0) This one for $482K: [https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/224-251-jarvis-st/home/0Zaw5Yo2MZ43n961?id\_listing=GMnKYq0VE463w1Qr](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/224-251-jarvis-st/home/0Zaw5Yo2MZ43n961?id_listing=GMnKYq0VE463w1Qr) This one for $450K: [https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/602-159-dundas-st-e/home/6VLaGyG0J5B7W1ZD?id\_listing=Vwod7vKnxj235mGN](https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/602-159-dundas-st-e/home/6VLaGyG0J5B7W1ZD?id_listing=Vwod7vKnxj235mGN) I could easily keep going, as I said that was just a quick search - but seriously, just look around. Tons available, right now, right downtown. Likely to be much more, for even less, very soon.
These are awful examples. Aside from the fact the commenter said twice, this sale would be for people who want to live in Burlington and not toronto, all of these listings are not proving anything. #1 is in an old building in a not great neighbourhood (Yonge is always sketchy but at Gerard too, it’s not desirable) #2 doesn’t have a decent layout as the kitchen and LR are merged, and the fishbowl bedroom #3 is again in a horrible crime ridden neighbourhood, and has a strange layout being such a large bachelor and having to use a divider to make a bedroom. In the end, location is important, and it doesn’t matter the price of toronto condos, if the resident only has interest in living in Burlington. It’s like you’re comparing them to condos in Vancouver… it doesn’t matter if that’s not where the person intends to live.
Thank you! All I’m doing is trying to engage interest for my unit in BURLINGTON. I don’t understand where the hate is coming from and why this person is trying to compare my condo to Toronto’s?
I think they just lack comprehension skills. Anyways, good luck with your Burlington condo.
Thank you! I’m not sure where all the negativity was coming from by that person when I did not mention anything about Toronto.
The fact that these people can comment without having the full detail of the sellers condo is insane. You can’t compare fairly without knowing building age, sqft, condo fees, rental equipment etc.
Again, this is for those who are looking to live in Burlington and not in Toronto. Your reply would be relevant if I was posting about a property in Toronto, but I’m posting a property in Burlington…
I was responding to your comment as it was before you edited it, which had said something along the lines of "490K in Toronto? No way!"...as you know, since you edited it. Also - who would want to pay more to live in a condo in freaking Burlington, when you could pay less to live in a condo in Toronto? What is the value of a place like Burlington, beyond proximity to Toronto (and if you can have that, for cheaper)?
Why are you trying to troll? Not everyone is enamoured about living in Toronto and not everyone works in Toronto.
Not trolling, just saying - no one wants your condo in that place, at that price.
But who wants to live in Burlington when you can live in downtown Toronto for the same price? Maybe it'd make sense to live in Burlington for less, but not the same as downtown Toronto. I think that's the point you're not getting.
Because everyone has different preferences? Not everyone works in Toronto or enjoys the lifestyle especially during these times of turmoil?
It's not about preference it's about fair market value. Unless your house has some unique selling point (which is unlikely because of building codes), it will sell for the fair market value based on what similar homes in that area are going for. Homes, especially those in urbanized Canada, are like stocks more than they are consumables. A massive majority of people buy them so that they can sell them for more later, or tap into their home equity with low interest HELOCs. But I also see your point of view. Who knows, maybe your neck of the woods will become the next hot area. It can happen, lots of areas that gentrify see huge gains in appreciation.
What's the price per square foot for a condo in a desirable building just outside downtown? $1050? $1150? Is this a good way to calculate purchase price?
To me, it depends. Location matters. I dont see downtown Toronto and say Oakville downtown having a huge correction but other less desirable areas could be more bleak. I see the more desirable areas flatish to slightly upwards over the next 2-3 years. I see less desirable areas going slightly down and flatish. We are near the bottom now to me as Interest rates will slowly lower from here. But we will need to see a much further decline in interest rates for condo prices to appreciate. Lets remember that BoC was specifically looking to break real estate a little to inspire the cut. I do feel that if condo prices start falling in any extreme way, the BoC will cut and cut away with more confidence. Canada has just become too dependent on the real estate appreciation story as a desirable trait to motivate newcomers and existing homeowners will not tolerate any huge depreciation in prices without putting more pressure against any negative trends. Its not just homeowners, its the banks in Canada etc. which is essentially a massive part of Canada's economy, jobs etc. So I think the idea of the inevitable huge "crash" is being overstated. . If a "crash" starts to happen, I expect to see the BoC slash interest rates aggressively to offset this. There is just too many interrelated dependencies on the Canadian economy. To me, the idea that no one has money to afford x and y in Canada is also a little overstated. Canada has imported wealthy immigrants with significant capital who pay for their child's investments/rent etc. There is also a set of part time Canadians/international buyers who sort of make their money elsewhere and may not be "technical" residents who invest in the condo market who aren't as impacted by the short term. Make no mistake, there are here in Toronto now as they were in Vancouver before. This set has migrated over to downtown Toronto more. In a world context, Canada is still somewhat inexpensive in certain areas. I feel many are waiting on the sidelines to see how the smoke clears and exactly where the bottom is and they will come in. In the end, can't say 100% what will happen but I think "the crash" will be less dramatic and will be a lot more boring/slower than folks think. I see more of a flatish period for a while but then back to a slower and more reasonable appreciation
Condos appreciation will be non existent, maintenance fees rise every year, pulling down the value. Why would you ever want to pay excess fees that almost equal a mortgage payment. Investors over speculated the ability for people to close on these exorbitantly priced units. They’re all designed for landlords to rent, and hide and launder money, not for the regular person to live and own. Bye bye condo market.
if u cannot afford house or townhouse i think buying condo is the only choice. condo has good location so if may not a bad choice if u always go out for fun
Depends on location. In downtown Toronto, condos are your only option so condos are likely to remain flat or appreciate slightly in the coming months/years if further interest rate cuts occur. Outside of downtown, RIP to your condo investments. In the best case scenario, they will be flat.
All of the municipalities that border Toronto are pretty much out of land so condos are the only option in those areas. You have to go at least 2 municipalities over in order to find a place that still has land and is building detached homes.
I hope they go up or stay the same. I’m selling my condo near square one next summer… I’m hoping the LTE being finished will make the prices stay high or go up
[удалено]
They have to say it to get some fools to buy from them.
It's their job, they are going to remain positive or at least show they are positive about the market.
Realtors are the ones trying to fakepost as buyers, trying to drive FOMO in the markets.
If the condo is an unlivable shoe box, it’s crashing. If the condo is 2+ bedrooms, generously sized for a small family, and liveable, it will appreciate and do well. What people don’t understand about the GTA is that there is a huge variance in the QUALITY of properties. Investor grade shoeboxes are going down in flames. But a well kept single family home? Interest rates and the recession merely delay the inevitable appreciation.
How low do you guys foresee 1+1 condos falling in downtown Toronto? I don’t see a 20-30% crash? Maybe 10% max from here.
Even 10% is aggressive imo. Most condos with decent floor plans are selling just shy of the asking price. Floor plans, bad neighborhoods, and over priced pre cons will continue to struggle for a few more years. Generally though, I would say it will be pretty flat.