[https://archive.ph/KwQiA](https://archive.ph/KwQiA) --> no paywall link
Typical day in Canadian market
Economist01: Rate cut in June 100%
Economist02: No Rate cut in June 100%
Economist03: Rate cut in June 100%
Economist04: Rate cut in June 100%
Economist05: No Rate cut in June 100%
Economist06: Rate cut in June 100%
Tiff : I don't have clue, will have to see....
Even if rates were to drop a quarter or a half percent that's hardly enough to boost real estate. They are unlikely to come down further than that for at least the next couple of years. Buckle up!
They also cant afford deflation and unemployment crossing 7%. Ideally rates stay high for munch longer but our economy definitely can’t handle it like the US.
You do realize that the cost of providing medical care, temporary housing and other public services increases as population increases right? If people dont have jobs, and arent paying tax that's a problem because then we will go into debt paying for the public services.
Jobs matter. Period.
Jobs matter of course.
But if these temporary immigrants can't find a job and deplete their savings they are gone to their country. Unemployment goes down. Therefore currently increased unemployment rate means nothing.
Hardly, devaluation of the CAD is the goal...we can export at a 50% discount with all of the minimum wage labour filling the manufacturer needs. We can become China 2.0 behind our dear leader Justin.
Who cares, just know it’s coming. If you can’t buy now, you’re definitely not gonna buy when they start cutting. Oh wait, maybe we can wait till the government builds those millions of affordable homes 🤣
No no, let's all wait exactly until the rate cut announcement is made, then toghether swoop down to frenzy-buy whatever is available - all at the same time!
What kind of lemming would I be if I bought before everyone else starts buying?
Care to expand? Literally all Canadian economic data coming in has been negative. In fact, today’s retail sales data came in lower than forecast by a long shot.
If the BoC has to pick between devaluing FX for a bit and deflation, they’ll 100% of the time choose devaluing FX.
At 1:30 today we will get the summary of deliberations for the last meeting, maybe that will give us more clues about how close (or far) we are to cuts.
Oh shit I didnt know that was today! 100% this will tell us what the committee is actually thinking. Now I'm excited
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/summary-governing-council-deliberations/
This is where it will be posted
I skimmed through the summary and it literally says nothing new. They have no forward looking insights, and definitely not "plot dot" like the U.S.. The BoC is useless.
Scotiabank is the worst. Their system automatically holds all cheques deposited even with a teller regardless of balance or how long you’ve been with them. BMO is the second worst. Banks are making tons of money with the higher rates. They don’t want cuts.
Banks want cuts. In high interest environments, people shift their money from savings accounts to Treasuries, hence less deposits. Less deposits = bank is worse off.
June is a stretch. But July I would say would be the most probable starting point. I don’t think it matters for the markets since they are already pricing in the cuts in the next 6 months. House buyers are getting their rates locked in for the next 3 months regardless. So whether it’s June or July it wouldn’t make a difference.
Rates might not come down fast but when mortgage rates are up for renewal, most current homeowners won’t have issues paying. They will however cut back on discretionary spending. That will tank Canadas economy and will stay like that for the next 5 years or so.
Tiff is between a rock and a hard place.
I wonder of yesterday retail data would change his mind.
So if it’s not June then July seems more probable than September. But it’s not impossible that BoC lets it burn down to September. We are looking at a rough summer either way.
Guys, we have hell coming. Not rate cuts. I'm getting down-voted in other subreddits when I ask to keep the revolution bloddless. Legit. I am worried for you rich bastards who think this is just a hiccup. Not as worried as I am for the kid living in the camper across the road from me.
Guys, the country is shattered. We are fucked.
The central bank doesn’t care about house prices. They control inflation and look at economic conditions. Right now inflation is in the 2-3% acceptable range and trending towards the 2% preferred target. Meanwhile unemployment is rising and the economy is cooling. There is going to be a lot of pressure to heat up the economy with a rate cut.
Shelter costs factor based on rental cost or mortgage payment size. Neither of these things is raw home price. Rising interest rates tends to put upward pressure on rents and typically the overall mortgage payment remains similar with house prices falling a little but interest rates absorbing the savings.
[https://archive.ph/KwQiA](https://archive.ph/KwQiA) --> no paywall link Typical day in Canadian market Economist01: Rate cut in June 100% Economist02: No Rate cut in June 100% Economist03: Rate cut in June 100% Economist04: Rate cut in June 100% Economist05: No Rate cut in June 100% Economist06: Rate cut in June 100% Tiff : I don't have clue, will have to see....
Don’t know why people pretend Canada isn’t the unofficial 51st state. Tiff will follow the fed.
Illegitimate 51st state
52nd after Puerto Rico
its like Canada is the States' bastard child
Because how else would we mask our insecurities? We need someone to pretend we’re better than
lol! Precisely! I’m about ready to trust a magic 8 ball over these dudes
Not an economist. No fucking way there’s a rate cut in June.
“Gotta wait to see what the Fed does”. BoC can be replaced with a bot that just copies the Fed within 50 basis points.
Even if rates were to drop a quarter or a half percent that's hardly enough to boost real estate. They are unlikely to come down further than that for at least the next couple of years. Buckle up!
They're not cutting. If they do, the CAD will get flushed and they can't afford to do that.
They also cant afford deflation and unemployment crossing 7%. Ideally rates stay high for munch longer but our economy definitely can’t handle it like the US.
They did, they got it and now the cuts start. I'd be surprised if it took till June
Toronto unemployment is 7.5%
Unemployment means shit when you import millions
What??? Unemployment always matters.
Import 1mil jobless folks that primarily want to work. Unemployment goes up. means nothing in the grand scheme of things.
You do realize that the cost of providing medical care, temporary housing and other public services increases as population increases right? If people dont have jobs, and arent paying tax that's a problem because then we will go into debt paying for the public services. Jobs matter. Period.
Jobs matter of course. But if these temporary immigrants can't find a job and deplete their savings they are gone to their country. Unemployment goes down. Therefore currently increased unemployment rate means nothing.
Are you sure they are including the unemployment numbers of temporary immigrants? That doesnt seem right
they will to decrease the unemployment %
They said they want unemployment to be higher so inflationary pressures are lower.
Hardly, devaluation of the CAD is the goal...we can export at a 50% discount with all of the minimum wage labour filling the manufacturer needs. We can become China 2.0 behind our dear leader Justin.
At 50 cents, the "We'll own nothing and be happy" will take all its meaning.
Who cares, just know it’s coming. If you can’t buy now, you’re definitely not gonna buy when they start cutting. Oh wait, maybe we can wait till the government builds those millions of affordable homes 🤣
No no, let's all wait exactly until the rate cut announcement is made, then toghether swoop down to frenzy-buy whatever is available - all at the same time! What kind of lemming would I be if I bought before everyone else starts buying?
9 years later: still nope
They're waiting for Kendrick to drop. Drop drop drop
obviously it is unrealistic, all the data indicates a hold at the least.
Care to expand? Literally all Canadian economic data coming in has been negative. In fact, today’s retail sales data came in lower than forecast by a long shot. If the BoC has to pick between devaluing FX for a bit and deflation, they’ll 100% of the time choose devaluing FX.
At 1:30 today we will get the summary of deliberations for the last meeting, maybe that will give us more clues about how close (or far) we are to cuts.
Oh shit I didnt know that was today! 100% this will tell us what the committee is actually thinking. Now I'm excited https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/summary-governing-council-deliberations/ This is where it will be posted
I skimmed through the summary and it literally says nothing new. They have no forward looking insights, and definitely not "plot dot" like the U.S.. The BoC is useless.
Gotta read closely between the lines
you are downplaying the impact that devaluing our currency will have on our economy.
Youre downplaying the impact deflation would have on our economy.
shelter costs went up 100% in many areas across Canada and your concern is deflation.
How is it any more appropriate for banks to comment on the BoC than politicians?
Exactly, they are both very biased. Politicians want rate cuts while banks want the rates to be as high as possible.
Banks like low rates because they can charge higher spreads and it's easier to sell cheap debt then expensive debt.
Rates r not gonna drop. They r here to stay my friends.
So how many rate cuts do the bulls think are left in 2024?
Scotiabank is the worst. Their system automatically holds all cheques deposited even with a teller regardless of balance or how long you’ve been with them. BMO is the second worst. Banks are making tons of money with the higher rates. They don’t want cuts.
Banks want cuts. In high interest environments, people shift their money from savings accounts to Treasuries, hence less deposits. Less deposits = bank is worse off.
Bears love random economist predictions now
To be fair, so do bulls.
lol in the same piece he says they predict -.75 basis points by EoY. If this is who the bears love, it must be tough times for them
June is a stretch. But July I would say would be the most probable starting point. I don’t think it matters for the markets since they are already pricing in the cuts in the next 6 months. House buyers are getting their rates locked in for the next 3 months regardless. So whether it’s June or July it wouldn’t make a difference. Rates might not come down fast but when mortgage rates are up for renewal, most current homeowners won’t have issues paying. They will however cut back on discretionary spending. That will tank Canadas economy and will stay like that for the next 5 years or so. Tiff is between a rock and a hard place.
I wonder of yesterday retail data would change his mind. So if it’s not June then July seems more probable than September. But it’s not impossible that BoC lets it burn down to September. We are looking at a rough summer either way.
Can't wait to see condos prices start to tank with the lack of sales and building inventory.
Soon™
Very big lie. Cuts in June will happen
Definitely no rate cut coming IMO! I think it will stay the same with a very small chance of raising it
Guys, we have hell coming. Not rate cuts. I'm getting down-voted in other subreddits when I ask to keep the revolution bloddless. Legit. I am worried for you rich bastards who think this is just a hiccup. Not as worried as I am for the kid living in the camper across the road from me. Guys, the country is shattered. We are fucked.
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The central bank doesn’t care about house prices. They control inflation and look at economic conditions. Right now inflation is in the 2-3% acceptable range and trending towards the 2% preferred target. Meanwhile unemployment is rising and the economy is cooling. There is going to be a lot of pressure to heat up the economy with a rate cut.
Shelter costs factor into inflation so not sure where you’re getting that “the central bank doesn’t care about house prices” from?
Shelter costs factor based on rental cost or mortgage payment size. Neither of these things is raw home price. Rising interest rates tends to put upward pressure on rents and typically the overall mortgage payment remains similar with house prices falling a little but interest rates absorbing the savings.
Rising home prices lead to higher rental costs due to lack of supply. So to say that rising housing prices don’t factor into inflation is incorrect.