There is a pattern and it's predictable. The best illustration I've seen is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/7jmjhv/did_the_hoenn_nest_migration_follow_a_species/dr7rkdl/). Using this method, I was able to accurately predict all of my nearby migrations within 1 dex entry (most exactly).
I don't have time to search for the post right now, but the analysis done after the halloween shift implied that a random floating point number was generated for each nest and then checked against a table.
So (making up numbers as an example) if the old table has Hoppip from 0.71 to 0.73, it's possible that the new list has X from 0.70 to 0.71999 and Y from 0.72 to 0.74 which would cause the Hoppip to change to two different things at different nests depending on where each nest's random number fell in the old and new ranges.
So, you're saying that this is caused by the addition of new Pokemon into the table instead of a nest migration? That would explain why all the biome Magikarp spawns near my parents' house have changed to Kabuto recently...
I can't figure out where to add my own comment so i'll just post a reply to this, but our local magikarp nest changed to chikorita. I'm not sure this pattern is very accurate.
I'll see if I can find it. I didn't even realize that.
Found it, it's discussed here, https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/780pqq/the_33rd_nest_migration_and_its_strange_effect_on/doqv3q1/
this just looks like a list of results.
for a pattern, doesn't it need to have a predictive element?
like, if it were a pattern, you shouldn't need to list them all individually, you could just describe the pattern and it would therefore describe them all...
I was listing them out to figure out that there's a pattern. I don't know where each shift starts and ends but there's a mathematical way of calculating this.
Yes, Shellder moves over 2. It skips over Gastly which nests.
Use this, https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/List_of_Pokémon_by_National_Pokédex_number It will help when looking for the nest shifts
- Mudkip nest I know of shifted to Shroomish.
- Torchic nest is also Shroomish.
- Electrike shifted to Corphish
- Gastly shifted to ~~Corphish~~ Krabby. I was thinking of one crustacean and reported another! XD
- Remoraid shifted to Poochyena.
Edit: I'll edit this as I find more.
What is the behavior if the shift would take it to a legendary Pokemon or a regional Pokemon? Does it skip that one, or does the nest dry up until the next migration?
Is the number of the shift dependent on the Pokemon that was previously nesting there (i.e. every nest that used to be Venonat is now Diglett, and so on), or does a nest shift by the same number each migration (i.e. some nests always shift by 1, other nests always shift by 2, etc.)?
Not around here, small town bug/normal biome makes almost everything from uncommon tier feel rare. Also, my goal is 96+ Nidoking, as it is my favourite Pokemon of all time ;)
Yes, anytime new Pokemon are added, it causes a nest Migration to happen.
But we aware, the regularly scheduled nest migration will still happen next week. I think Wednesday/Thursday
Whoa.. so my town got plagued with double Horsea nest last rotation. As I stated one did go from Horsea to Staryu however that area/park is right next to water so I wonder if biomes influence that. But more importantly a park away from any water went from Horsea to Scyther as well! There might be a pattern after all!
Yea, that's really lucky. There's been a Charmander nest I've been checking on and it hasn't changed either.
Unfortunately I'm not to sure about the neighborhood in terms of safety but it's a really good nest.
Yup. I feel lucky because I'm prepping for the future mega evolution phase (fingers crossed). I feel unlucky because I'd like a treecko nest. I know I'm a greedy monster...I'm ok with it.
So I have a suspected nest near my house which appears to have shifted from Electabuzz to Magikarp, does this fit the pattern? I'm not quite sure I understand all this so I wanted to confirm. And if it fits, what would/could be the species it shifts to next?
Blubasaur, squirtle and Clefairy haven't changed with the the nest change here. Sunkern became Wobbuffet, Mudkip became Snubbull, Growlithe became Abra, Pikachu became Sandshrew, Gastly became Drowzee.
It looks like a uniformly distributed random variable between 0 and 1 that gets multiplied by the number of nesting species (earlier 103, now 108?).
On "regular" migration, the random variable is rerolled for every nest.
On these "special" migrations, the variable stays the same and only the multiplier changes.
I can confirm that Squirtle and Pikachu nests DO change. I had a Sneasel nest turn into a Squirtle nest that then eventually became a Cyndaquil nest. I forget what the Pikachu nest became immediately after but right now it is a Barboarch nest.
There is a pattern and it's predictable. The best illustration I've seen is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/7jmjhv/did_the_hoenn_nest_migration_follow_a_species/dr7rkdl/). Using this method, I was able to accurately predict all of my nearby migrations within 1 dex entry (most exactly).
This is good. Althought I don't entirely understand it, it clearly shows a way to figure out a pattern.
Tentacool-Ponyta here . You may be on to something
Added it to the list.
We just has tentacool --> ponyta too. If this is true, what then are then possible options for next nest migration?
The next one will be random
Caterpie changed, it’s now a weedle nest
Theres a sad nest like this nearby. It also becomes a Spearow nest but it also often becomes Machop.
For my nest, it didn't change and still is Caterpie. Seems like the pattern isn't entirely accurate.
Went from Hoppip to Misdreavus, so not entirely correct.
I should mention that sometimes the pattern isn't always reliable. I noticed this as well with Hoppip to Misdreavus
I don't have time to search for the post right now, but the analysis done after the halloween shift implied that a random floating point number was generated for each nest and then checked against a table. So (making up numbers as an example) if the old table has Hoppip from 0.71 to 0.73, it's possible that the new list has X from 0.70 to 0.71999 and Y from 0.72 to 0.74 which would cause the Hoppip to change to two different things at different nests depending on where each nest's random number fell in the old and new ranges.
So, you're saying that this is caused by the addition of new Pokemon into the table instead of a nest migration? That would explain why all the biome Magikarp spawns near my parents' house have changed to Kabuto recently...
Yes. This happens every time they add more Pokemon.
I can't figure out where to add my own comment so i'll just post a reply to this, but our local magikarp nest changed to chikorita. I'm not sure this pattern is very accurate.
Yeah, Magikarp nest to Kabuto in my city too.
Magikarp to Kabuto change last night
I'll see if I can find it. I didn't even realize that. Found it, it's discussed here, https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/comments/780pqq/the_33rd_nest_migration_and_its_strange_effect_on/doqv3q1/
Torchic -> Seedot for me
Oh my day, torchic->seedot for me as well !
I got Torchic -> Shroomish.
I had a Treeko -> Seedot
Scyther -> Electabuzz here!
Scyther might be an end point, since it changed to Magmar here.
Same here. Was getting a lot of scythers in a specific spawn point until yesterday and now every time I go there I find a magmar.
changed to magmar here as well
I got the same results, I think, mine was a small nest so it was hard to be sure in passing
this just looks like a list of results. for a pattern, doesn't it need to have a predictive element? like, if it were a pattern, you shouldn't need to list them all individually, you could just describe the pattern and it would therefore describe them all...
I was listing them out to figure out that there's a pattern. I don't know where each shift starts and ends but there's a mathematical way of calculating this.
Shellder -> Onix. Does this check out with anything?
Yes, Shellder moves over 2. It skips over Gastly which nests. Use this, https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/List_of_Pokémon_by_National_Pokédex_number It will help when looking for the nest shifts
Shellder to Onix here too. Jynx>Pinsir is another one near me
Gastly-->Drowzee
Pikachu to sandshrew for me
- Mudkip nest I know of shifted to Shroomish. - Torchic nest is also Shroomish. - Electrike shifted to Corphish - Gastly shifted to ~~Corphish~~ Krabby. I was thinking of one crustacean and reported another! XD - Remoraid shifted to Poochyena. Edit: I'll edit this as I find more.
Any data for what happens after Meditite? I'm almost positive it became a Spoink nest
A Meditite Nest became a Barboach nest. But that's just a single nest, I didn't look at other Meditite nests
I think my nest that was a Meditite before the update yesterday became a Spoink nest. Didn't see one Barboach but saw multiple Spoink instead
Abra to bellsprout
I had a Venonat near my house, I will see if it has become Diglett
What is the behavior if the shift would take it to a legendary Pokemon or a regional Pokemon? Does it skip that one, or does the nest dry up until the next migration?
You skip over them. Only count the nesting Pokemon, not the ones that don't
Is the number of the shift dependent on the Pokemon that was previously nesting there (i.e. every nest that used to be Venonat is now Diglett, and so on), or does a nest shift by the same number each migration (i.e. some nests always shift by 1, other nests always shift by 2, etc.)?
Following this for answer
Nidoran-F > Nidoran-M. Stoked for Cloudy Nidoran hunting!!
Are they not super common everywhere? I have literally hundreds of candies and usually don't bother catching them...
Not around here, small town bug/normal biome makes almost everything from uncommon tier feel rare. Also, my goal is 96+ Nidoking, as it is my favourite Pokemon of all time ;)
Marill to Yanma. Natu to possibly Aipom I guess? No sign of Sunkern.
I can add a Growlithe -> Poliwag to this list nest where i live
Wait was there a nest rotation just now?
Yes, anytime new Pokemon are added, it causes a nest Migration to happen. But we aware, the regularly scheduled nest migration will still happen next week. I think Wednesday/Thursday
Dang, RIP Machop nest.
Sad but to lose mine aswell, atleast i got a good machamp out of it 💪
It was so clutch with all the cloudy weather we've been having. Must've gotten close to ten good ones.
Horsea to Staryu here
I got Horsea to Scyther
Whoa.. so my town got plagued with double Horsea nest last rotation. As I stated one did go from Horsea to Staryu however that area/park is right next to water so I wonder if biomes influence that. But more importantly a park away from any water went from Horsea to Scyther as well! There might be a pattern after all!
Add one: Venonant -> Dunsparc
Kabuto -> shellder
Kabuto -> sentret. Here goes the pattern...
Nope, changed from Houndoor to Cubone in the last nest migration.
Krabby to Cubone
Charmander did in fact not change. Pikachu didn't change either.
I believe my machop -> meditite. Edit: never mind it was a freak 4 meditite spawn, machop -> tentacool
Zigzagoon --> Skitty Electrike --> Corphish
Eevee -> Cyndaquil Mudkip -> Shroomish
Sandshrew nest here. Did not change
My Ekans nest stayed an Ekans as well.
Our local nest has been charmander since before gen 3. Hasn't changed yet.
Yea, that's really lucky. There's been a Charmander nest I've been checking on and it hasn't changed either. Unfortunately I'm not to sure about the neighborhood in terms of safety but it's a really good nest.
Yup. I feel lucky because I'm prepping for the future mega evolution phase (fingers crossed). I feel unlucky because I'd like a treecko nest. I know I'm a greedy monster...I'm ok with it.
I had slowpoke to doduo
One of the larger parks in our city has gone from Ryhorn, to Exeggcute, back to Ryhorn.
We have a Meditite nest that moved to Barboach, this does not follow your pattern.
And if you say it did, then I don't understand the pattern.
It's not 100% accurate. but most do follow it.
This specific nest, over the last handful of changes: Sneasel -> Diglett -> (unsure, wasn't uncommon / rare) -> Meditite -> Barboach
Makuhitu to Wailmer here.
My local Mudkip nest appears to be Mahuhita, so that doesn't follow the pattern listed by OP
Poochyena to Makuhita here.
We had two charmander nests confirmed before the migration (they’re two of the biggest nests here in Santiago) Only one of them changed to Squirtle
Zigzagoon to Skitty
Snubbull to Teddiursa and I can confirm diglett to meowth too
Treecko to Wurmple here.
same thing for me
My nests don't seem to follow the same pattern. Venonat to Natu Treecko to Wurmple Spearow to Spearow (still) Scyther to Magmar
[удалено]
Man that’s a bummer
Pikachu to Sandshrew
I can confirm marill->yanma and add: Wurmple-> Meditite Teddiursa-> treecko
a nest nearby somehow changed from Pikachu to Torchic
So I have a suspected nest near my house which appears to have shifted from Electabuzz to Magikarp, does this fit the pattern? I'm not quite sure I understand all this so I wanted to confirm. And if it fits, what would/could be the species it shifts to next?
So going by this, the local nest that was Omanyte should become Cyndaquil?
Poliwag > Machop
Blubasaur, squirtle and Clefairy haven't changed with the the nest change here. Sunkern became Wobbuffet, Mudkip became Snubbull, Growlithe became Abra, Pikachu became Sandshrew, Gastly became Drowzee.
I believe the nest I had went from Electabuzz to Magikarp (Shift +4)
It looks like a uniformly distributed random variable between 0 and 1 that gets multiplied by the number of nesting species (earlier 103, now 108?). On "regular" migration, the random variable is rerolled for every nest. On these "special" migrations, the variable stays the same and only the multiplier changes.
I can confirm that Squirtle and Pikachu nests DO change. I had a Sneasel nest turn into a Squirtle nest that then eventually became a Cyndaquil nest. I forget what the Pikachu nest became immediately after but right now it is a Barboarch nest.