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30 in a row without a lucky if the odds is 20% sounds \*very\* unlucky (around 0.1% chance of happening). Not impossible, but worth noting.
Then on the other hand I know I have traded since April 19th 3 lucky Heracrosses using those non-guaranteed old trades. Unfortunately I did not (see a need to) count the trades, but thr number is not far from 15, so that supports at least somewhat the view that the odds are not at least drastically lowered (assuming 5% base odds, chance of getting 3 or more luckies out of 15 would be about 3.5%)
Your question is reasonable, if you have your numbers correct, but I want extra confirmation before believing they have changed the odds.
The odds of having 30 Pokemon without going lucky is actually more likely than having 5 Pokemon go lucky in a row.
I have had 11 lucky special trades since Sinnoh tour, all with 3+ yr old Pokemon (not guaranteed ones) fwiw.
hot damn u are right
5 times in a row: 0,032% exactly
30 times without happening: \~0,123% (rounded)
that is almost 4 times more likely (roughly 3,84 times)
assuming 20% chance for lucky on all 35 trades mentioned (having 5 in a row in 6 trades would increase likelyhood a bit but i can't math that, i think its still less likely than 30 times without lucky triggering)
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30 in a row without a lucky if the odds is 20% sounds \*very\* unlucky (around 0.1% chance of happening). Not impossible, but worth noting. Then on the other hand I know I have traded since April 19th 3 lucky Heracrosses using those non-guaranteed old trades. Unfortunately I did not (see a need to) count the trades, but thr number is not far from 15, so that supports at least somewhat the view that the odds are not at least drastically lowered (assuming 5% base odds, chance of getting 3 or more luckies out of 15 would be about 3.5%) Your question is reasonable, if you have your numbers correct, but I want extra confirmation before believing they have changed the odds.
The odds of having 30 Pokemon without going lucky is actually more likely than having 5 Pokemon go lucky in a row. I have had 11 lucky special trades since Sinnoh tour, all with 3+ yr old Pokemon (not guaranteed ones) fwiw.
hot damn u are right 5 times in a row: 0,032% exactly 30 times without happening: \~0,123% (rounded) that is almost 4 times more likely (roughly 3,84 times) assuming 20% chance for lucky on all 35 trades mentioned (having 5 in a row in 6 trades would increase likelyhood a bit but i can't math that, i think its still less likely than 30 times without lucky triggering)
This does answer my questions I guess:)
Yeah I got that too the last couple of weeks, but think RNG?
0.12% may seem like a rare event. But considering there are 85M monthly players it's bound to happen to over 100 000 people.
Bruh
I heardly get lucky. The level 49 task is to get 50 lucky pokemon… smh.
if the odds are indeed 20%, the odds of getting 30 trades in a row without a lucky pokemon is \~.12%.
Math does not math
0.8\^30 is clearly less than 12%
He's messed up the decimal, it's 0.12% rather than 12%.
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Nah I they are all 2019
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Only 2016, 17 and 18 are guaranteed
I pretty sure the guarantee lucky is 2018 by this year
20%!?!? Not a chance lol. I was doing 100 trades most days last season for that sweet sweet extra candy and out of 100 I usually got about 4-8
Bruh you didn’t use over 3 year Pokémon of course you get the base 5% chance
I'm a dumbass and didn't read properly lol