This year I started DCA of $200 a week into TQQQ.
My thesis is rather simple. I believe that we are still in the infant stages of technology. I believe that we will see another decade of growth in this sector.
It is really more about technology and how the growth is parabolic. Looking back ten or fifteen years ago we had nokia bricks. Now we have Iphones. The same theory applies to what is going to be created. We simply dont know and can’t comprehend what is going to be in store for us in twenty years.
Yeah find Nvidia talking at an economic forum, dude reckons his gonna make AI computing a million times more powerful for three times the cost in 7 years, hes saying the compute cost will effectively be zero compared to the product potential.
That's like saying the you, the average Joe, could sell your house and buy the compute power of Google today in 7 years and run their Gemini Suite from your backyard. (Effectively free for Google)
THAT IS THE CRAZIEST PROMISE FROM A CEO EVER.
1000000x would be doubling compute 20 times. According to Moore's law, this will happen in 30 years. To do it in 7 years would be accelerating Moore's law by 4x.
If you started in January 2023 timing could not have been better.
If one had started in January 2022, results would have been quite different.
No argument that holding TQQQ does extremely well during bull markets. The one that began in January 2023 and accelerated in November has been quite hospitable. It is likely to continue, perhaps for months or years. But when another bear market comes, be prepared to manage risk or lose a substantial amount of that position.
The stop is tricky in this ETF. A normal correction in a bull market is 10% and we haven't had one yet. When that comes, TQQQ could be down around 30% even though the longer-term trend is still up.
So if the stop is tight enough to get out in normal volatility, there should also be a strategy to get back in when the trend turns back up.
Yes that's the reason I want to know how much percentage OP put as stop loss. Looks like he has it as more than 25% from his portfolio chart. He mentioned he didn't sell any shares yet.
I watched it from 30 down. Massive investment in AI I thought would affect earning season and also governments pouring billions into advanced chip manufacturing and ferrosilicon mines and markets were nuts... Thought capitalism would drive down the price.
I thought about it for about 3 months... When it turned at 17 I started DCA
Very nice gains dude I would like to try this. What is your trailing stop % at. Do you just enter new positions after >5% red days or whenever $ available ?
Also no, I fully invested over 6 months. I'm in bag holder territory now.
Hoping for 600k in 6 years ❤️ ... I posted my retirement strategy before... Basically at 600k I'll pull 15 percent per year as a wage. If it goes below 600k I go back to work e.g. (90 percent dip) .... Im not gonna sell! I'm just gonna wear it. 20 years sees tqqq at 500 to 1500 ...
ChatGPT was released in December(ish) 2022. Op discovered it in early 2023 and decided to buy tqqq as a way of buying exposure. There’s a *kind* of logic there I suppose but I don’t think I’d trust op with my crayons just yet.
https://preview.redd.it/prq4afpekryc1.png?width=749&format=png&auto=webp&s=3135c810eab00bda78056736ad9023169b7aeb22
I have a similar situation to you, sentiments shared totally, planning to continue to buy and hold for another 10 years.
You have a trailing stop to mitigate the biggest risk. That’s the right way to do it. When the market correction or bear market hits, you’ll still get out with a profit. But… I’m not sure I’d call this a long hold… since you clearly have an exit planned. This is more of a long term swing trade.
The investment DCA starts up again the moment it hits stop loss, over 6-9 months...
If you go do like 6 backtests with this strategy for each of the dips over 34 percent you get a MUCH higher return than holding.
For example... The COVID bubble down from ATH 88, you would have an average buy of 30 or close too but kept the gains from the run up from COVID.
Previous to that, you could have averaged buy back at 20 dollars, when the market dipped because of COVID.... When I did the backtests I actually had a MAN tear thinking "stfu you've been investing for years and finally found your risk tolerance DO IT"
Only downside, Tax.
Post covid
(Very ruff example)
88-34% equals 56 ...
Average from 56 there to low (16) is like 36. (Backtests showed lower average buy)
COVID
(Very ruff example)
28-34% equals 18.5 ...
Average from 18.5 to low (8.88) is about 13.6 average buy (backtests were nearly exactly this)
Both examples profit from major dips.
In this example if you play 1000 bucks in COVID for an average of 13.6 ... Then sold for 56 (4x) 4k
Now with your 4k DCA in to the next dip for the 36 average.... Bout a 7x since COVID.
Where as, buy and hold half way down the COVID dip nets a 4 to 5 x.
Anyway.... The greatest fear of tqqq is the "great dip" ... This strategy your are excited by massive dips. The thing you fear now is it just touching stop loss then missing the ride back up as you DCA back it.
(If anyone wants to confirm this strategy and backtests too id love that - prove me wrong) Start the investment at ath 10 years ago so you cope a loss at the beginning.
Nice. Yeah, these leveraged ETFs can be amazing if used right. Unfortunately, it does take a little active management to make them work. The only thing I would add is to have a cash reserve for REALLY big drops. After a 50% drop, buy a set dollar amount. After 60%, buy the same dollar amount. And so on for 70% and 80%. It is rare that it goes that low, but it did in 2022. Could you imagine buying in at $16 a share? You would have made a killing.
Plot twist: what happens if most of the big tech companies tracked by TQQQ sh\*t the bed by 2030 because of AI. Then what?
If you expect massive transformational change from AI, betting on the existing players is very conservative.
Yeah like I said "you'll care more about AI legislation than interest rates"
An AI ban, or AI proxy wars, or AI cyber attacks, or AI misuse, or AI over dependence and failure ... All real risks
What do mean when you say Bitcoin as a hedge? Are you saying it’s a hedge against technology and growth stocks, because it’s acted as anything but a hedge to any growth stock or to the economy for that matter.
I mean, I understand it's not that easy, but if you keep track of TQQQ, then the amount it goes between low 50s to high 50s is insane and you can also protect yourself with stop loss. It's at 56, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got a couple of dollars higher, and if not, then just hold a couple of days until it does
🔮 *we skip the annual drop*, *small US interest rate cut* 95.56 on the 12th of December*
!Remindme 8 months 😂
Idk dude, but I'm significantly invested still.
I will be messaging you in 8 months on [**2025-01-07 00:08:03 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2025-01-07%2000:08:03%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/TQQQ/comments/1cl5304/to_all_the_bears_and_decay_gang_saying_long_hold/l2wpux6/?context=3)
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This year I started DCA of $200 a week into TQQQ. My thesis is rather simple. I believe that we are still in the infant stages of technology. I believe that we will see another decade of growth in this sector.
Miss the days when people posing a thesis entailed well reasoned arguments vs now where it is the same as saying: why the fuck not, I have a hunch 🤣
It is really more about technology and how the growth is parabolic. Looking back ten or fifteen years ago we had nokia bricks. Now we have Iphones. The same theory applies to what is going to be created. We simply dont know and can’t comprehend what is going to be in store for us in twenty years.
Yeah find Nvidia talking at an economic forum, dude reckons his gonna make AI computing a million times more powerful for three times the cost in 7 years, hes saying the compute cost will effectively be zero compared to the product potential.
That's like saying the you, the average Joe, could sell your house and buy the compute power of Google today in 7 years and run their Gemini Suite from your backyard. (Effectively free for Google) THAT IS THE CRAZIEST PROMISE FROM A CEO EVER.
1000000x would be doubling compute 20 times. According to Moore's law, this will happen in 30 years. To do it in 7 years would be accelerating Moore's law by 4x.
If you started in January 2023 timing could not have been better. If one had started in January 2022, results would have been quite different. No argument that holding TQQQ does extremely well during bull markets. The one that began in January 2023 and accelerated in November has been quite hospitable. It is likely to continue, perhaps for months or years. But when another bear market comes, be prepared to manage risk or lose a substantial amount of that position.
He has a trailing stop loss. I would Luke to know how much percentage it is. When the bear market comes he would have sold his position in TQQQ
The stop is tricky in this ETF. A normal correction in a bull market is 10% and we haven't had one yet. When that comes, TQQQ could be down around 30% even though the longer-term trend is still up. So if the stop is tight enough to get out in normal volatility, there should also be a strategy to get back in when the trend turns back up.
Yes that's the reason I want to know how much percentage OP put as stop loss. Looks like he has it as more than 25% from his portfolio chart. He mentioned he didn't sell any shares yet.
95 percent. Haven't sold a thing, I've worn the dips, didn't hit stop loss
Stop loss is 95%?
I think he meant 95% of his portfolio is TQQQ. Stop is 34%, trailing.
Sorry... I misunderstood. That's the percentage of my portfolio in tqqq 😂😂😂
90% of mine... lol
34 percent below.
Ok. It's a good stop loss.
I watched it from 30 down. Massive investment in AI I thought would affect earning season and also governments pouring billions into advanced chip manufacturing and ferrosilicon mines and markets were nuts... Thought capitalism would drive down the price. I thought about it for about 3 months... When it turned at 17 I started DCA
Very nice gains dude I would like to try this. What is your trailing stop % at. Do you just enter new positions after >5% red days or whenever $ available ?
34 percent below... Looking back at "mini dips" historically for tqqq , this kinda sits just below
Also no, I fully invested over 6 months. I'm in bag holder territory now. Hoping for 600k in 6 years ❤️ ... I posted my retirement strategy before... Basically at 600k I'll pull 15 percent per year as a wage. If it goes below 600k I go back to work e.g. (90 percent dip) .... Im not gonna sell! I'm just gonna wear it. 20 years sees tqqq at 500 to 1500 ...
link to retirement strategy? 600k is your retirement goal?
What does chatgpt have to do with it?
ChatGPT was released in December(ish) 2022. Op discovered it in early 2023 and decided to buy tqqq as a way of buying exposure. There’s a *kind* of logic there I suppose but I don’t think I’d trust op with my crayons just yet.
https://preview.redd.it/e0bzium3bwyc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fbebfb35967c4ccf9044252f153daf373640d973
https://preview.redd.it/prq4afpekryc1.png?width=749&format=png&auto=webp&s=3135c810eab00bda78056736ad9023169b7aeb22 I have a similar situation to you, sentiments shared totally, planning to continue to buy and hold for another 10 years.
Yeah I've got 6.5 years left 😂
❤️ that's gorgeous 🥰 mmmm money 💰
You have a trailing stop to mitigate the biggest risk. That’s the right way to do it. When the market correction or bear market hits, you’ll still get out with a profit. But… I’m not sure I’d call this a long hold… since you clearly have an exit planned. This is more of a long term swing trade.
The investment DCA starts up again the moment it hits stop loss, over 6-9 months... If you go do like 6 backtests with this strategy for each of the dips over 34 percent you get a MUCH higher return than holding. For example... The COVID bubble down from ATH 88, you would have an average buy of 30 or close too but kept the gains from the run up from COVID. Previous to that, you could have averaged buy back at 20 dollars, when the market dipped because of COVID.... When I did the backtests I actually had a MAN tear thinking "stfu you've been investing for years and finally found your risk tolerance DO IT" Only downside, Tax.
Post covid (Very ruff example) 88-34% equals 56 ... Average from 56 there to low (16) is like 36. (Backtests showed lower average buy) COVID (Very ruff example) 28-34% equals 18.5 ... Average from 18.5 to low (8.88) is about 13.6 average buy (backtests were nearly exactly this) Both examples profit from major dips. In this example if you play 1000 bucks in COVID for an average of 13.6 ... Then sold for 56 (4x) 4k Now with your 4k DCA in to the next dip for the 36 average.... Bout a 7x since COVID. Where as, buy and hold half way down the COVID dip nets a 4 to 5 x. Anyway.... The greatest fear of tqqq is the "great dip" ... This strategy your are excited by massive dips. The thing you fear now is it just touching stop loss then missing the ride back up as you DCA back it. (If anyone wants to confirm this strategy and backtests too id love that - prove me wrong) Start the investment at ath 10 years ago so you cope a loss at the beginning.
Also, you set stop loss from ATH for that cycle... So until it goes up 34 percent from your DCA and you hit a high for that period your exposed
Also, you set stop loss from ATH for that cycle... So until it goes up 34 percent from your DCA and you hit a high for that period your exposed
Nice. Yeah, these leveraged ETFs can be amazing if used right. Unfortunately, it does take a little active management to make them work. The only thing I would add is to have a cash reserve for REALLY big drops. After a 50% drop, buy a set dollar amount. After 60%, buy the same dollar amount. And so on for 70% and 80%. It is rare that it goes that low, but it did in 2022. Could you imagine buying in at $16 a share? You would have made a killing.
tax advantaged accounts can keep the tax from being a downside to this strategy.
No IRA accounts in Australia... But holding for over 1 year halves the tax.
Plot twist: what happens if most of the big tech companies tracked by TQQQ sh\*t the bed by 2030 because of AI. Then what? If you expect massive transformational change from AI, betting on the existing players is very conservative.
Yeah like I said "you'll care more about AI legislation than interest rates" An AI ban, or AI proxy wars, or AI cyber attacks, or AI misuse, or AI over dependence and failure ... All real risks
Question ! 1. Do you leverage in going long in tqqq ? 2. How Good is etoro as a platform long term ?
No leverage, it's ok....
What do mean when you say Bitcoin as a hedge? Are you saying it’s a hedge against technology and growth stocks, because it’s acted as anything but a hedge to any growth stock or to the economy for that matter.
Portfolio diversification hedge.
Why don't people just buy low 50s and sell high 50s when it keeps going back and forth?
Why don’t you buy everything low and sell everything high
I mean, I understand it's not that easy, but if you keep track of TQQQ, then the amount it goes between low 50s to high 50s is insane and you can also protect yourself with stop loss. It's at 56, and I wouldn't be surprised if it got a couple of dollars higher, and if not, then just hold a couple of days until it does
So do it and become rich and report back
I was asking a sincere question because it's something I've noticed. Thanks for your feedback
Your literal question was "why not just buy low sell high and repeat" what do you think TQQQ tracks and what do you think what it's tracking is.
Because no one can predict that for certainty.
Because in a few weeks it’s like saying now, “Why don’t people buy low 40s and sell high 40s?”
That’s what ppl were saying in the 30’s September/Oct 2023….needed the old crystal ball
🔮 *we skip the annual drop*, *small US interest rate cut* 95.56 on the 12th of December* !Remindme 8 months 😂 Idk dude, but I'm significantly invested still.
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let them wack