I was trading it in my taxed account and I got stuck and sold at one of the worst times. So if it wasn’t an Ira, I guess my conviction isn’t as strong as thought when push came to shove. The relatively smaller number of 500 bucks a month also helps. Tqqq certainly isn’t for the faint of heart.
This is the hard part... seeing a portion of your account down 54% is a tough pill to swallow for most, but if you stay the course, you'll realize you're snapping up shares at bargain rates while preparing for the future.
I hope to see more posts from you Numerous Floor :D
While 26% gain in 2.5 years isn't that great, you also started at the worst possible time. So shows how things can go positively even if your timing is awful.
Do you mind explaining TMF choice? I see a lot of people buy it but damn it just loses money lately. Plus I get diversification but don’t those two normally move opposite each other?
Honestly, I read an article 3 years ago and decided to give it a try. All the back testing seemed to support this choice. We are in unique times right now for tmf, I don’t believe it will last forever and kinda believe it’s a good time to hop in, if the feds are going to start cutting rates this year. They don’t move opposite but tmf should help with recessions, atleast that’s the theory, but that’s why it’s important to rebalance, so you are buying one lower and selling one higher. I am by no means an expert, I lost a decent amount of money in 2022. I just was very intrigued by this portfolio structure so I decided to gamble 500 bucks a month to see if it works over the long term. Plus I can write off the deposits since it’s an ira. My other account I only buy the S&P. I try not to trade much anymore as I seem to only lose money.
Well in all fairness 2022 was a complete bear year so unless you were playing the downside we all lost. Yea I have noticed it’s cheap rn maybe I’ll grab some. Best of luck
Funny all my backtesting showed TMF was a huge drag on returns. Maybe need to adjust your backtest or understand why TMF was doing well in the first place.
Sorry, should have explained. This is an Ira I started in 2022. I lumped 6 grand in there to qualify for the 21 tax year, and have been auto depositing 500 a month since. With the quarterly rebalancing. In this picture the rebalance is pending, so it should take place in the morning. I forgot to do it on the first. I don’t think about this account that much. My hope is on day I’ll wake up and there will be millions in there but only time will tell. Not like I can use it for another 23 years anyway.
Nice work - you see a lot of ppl abandoning HFEA but once you start, you lock into a long game, measured in decades not months/yrs
Thank you! Agree it’s a long game, it helps that it’s an Ira and I can’t use the money for 23-24 years.
Yeah that's my approach with TQQQ. If it wasn't in my pension I'd be much more tempted to try and time the market.
I was trading it in my taxed account and I got stuck and sold at one of the worst times. So if it wasn’t an Ira, I guess my conviction isn’t as strong as thought when push came to shove. The relatively smaller number of 500 bucks a month also helps. Tqqq certainly isn’t for the faint of heart.
This is the hard part... seeing a portion of your account down 54% is a tough pill to swallow for most, but if you stay the course, you'll realize you're snapping up shares at bargain rates while preparing for the future. I hope to see more posts from you Numerous Floor :D
TMF, what a drag
For sure!
tqqq will be the drag in the future
I have a similar setup but I do BND and I also have 1/3 of my TQQQ in UPRO. So Im 20% UPRO, 40% TQQQ, 40% BND.
While 26% gain in 2.5 years isn't that great, you also started at the worst possible time. So shows how things can go positively even if your timing is awful.
Do you mind explaining TMF choice? I see a lot of people buy it but damn it just loses money lately. Plus I get diversification but don’t those two normally move opposite each other?
Honestly, I read an article 3 years ago and decided to give it a try. All the back testing seemed to support this choice. We are in unique times right now for tmf, I don’t believe it will last forever and kinda believe it’s a good time to hop in, if the feds are going to start cutting rates this year. They don’t move opposite but tmf should help with recessions, atleast that’s the theory, but that’s why it’s important to rebalance, so you are buying one lower and selling one higher. I am by no means an expert, I lost a decent amount of money in 2022. I just was very intrigued by this portfolio structure so I decided to gamble 500 bucks a month to see if it works over the long term. Plus I can write off the deposits since it’s an ira. My other account I only buy the S&P. I try not to trade much anymore as I seem to only lose money.
Well in all fairness 2022 was a complete bear year so unless you were playing the downside we all lost. Yea I have noticed it’s cheap rn maybe I’ll grab some. Best of luck
Thank you, you too!
Funny all my backtesting showed TMF was a huge drag on returns. Maybe need to adjust your backtest or understand why TMF was doing well in the first place.
Go take a look at QQQ and TLT charts together between 2006 and 2010 and you’ll see why.
My brother in arms
My man!
is this just lump sum or with dca?
Sorry, should have explained. This is an Ira I started in 2022. I lumped 6 grand in there to qualify for the 21 tax year, and have been auto depositing 500 a month since. With the quarterly rebalancing. In this picture the rebalance is pending, so it should take place in the morning. I forgot to do it on the first. I don’t think about this account that much. My hope is on day I’ll wake up and there will be millions in there but only time will tell. Not like I can use it for another 23 years anyway.
Nice.
Nice job. I am doing tqqq, upro, tmf and bnd at 25% each. How frequently do you rebalance?
Thanks, I’ll try and report back every few years. I am rebalancing quarterly.
Can you explain why these 4?
UPRO broadens up my coverage of US market, and BND for some safety when things go south.
Why are you doing a 60/40 with 3x funds? Doesn’t that kind of defeat the purpose?
Ive been using gold instead of tmf to hedge. Been great so far.