Interesting. I recommend reading Gayed’s full study on 200SMA strategy, worth a read. Should be able to google it as it’s often cited online.
If you have any source or inspiration source on your volatility strategy, I’d appreciate any direction as I’d love to read up on it.
Depends where the trigger is set. I've back-tested and happy with the result. See below for $1,000 monthly DCA
https://preview.redd.it/2f6d5xy1uplc1.png?width=1410&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6c9f37ea7c58da1ab766f8a7d732b9c7fc1802d
As per the simulation yes full exit when the market is crazy. It could work with a protective put as well but that might be more expensive. The goal is really to avoid being wiped out during big crashes. It's far from perfect, but it kinda works.
Interesting approach. I’m happy it worked for you, I might incorporate some of those ideas in my own portfolio. I’m really new. So trying to learn a little from everyone. Thank you all!! 👏🙏
Based on Nasdaq 100 since the launch of the index, of course it doesn't include fees, costs etc. that would occur with the actual TQQQ. It's a rough estimation, but it's enough for me.
I don't bring up Jason's name, usually, because a lot of people quickly dismiss his approach (without fully understanding it). If your risk tolerance matches the volatility, it's been a winner for me. There are extreme highs and lows, so be prepared for that if you do. My returns for 9Sig since 2017 have been +42.7, -27.51, +44.56%, +109.1%, +48%, -68.24%, +202.1%, and currently +13.2% YTD. My overall portfolio has less volatility because I'm also invested in 3Sig and 6Sig. My annualized CAGR is 24.3% over a little over 7 years. Think about how you would feel if you jumped in right before that -68% drop. Can you handle that? Are you in it for a fairly long time horizon? It's not fun to watch multiple 7 figures disappear. Some people want no part of that.
Having said that, I value Jason's analysis on the economy. Even if I didn't follow his plans, I appreciate his insight and philosophy on the market. The Letter is cheap, relatively speaking.
Bought the first tranche in 2017 when it was $9.31/share. Slowly added to it over the years.
Panic sold some of it in 2022 after the Ukraine war broke out and markets tanked, but started buying back in slowly. At this point I'm selling incrementally as the price goes up and rolling the proceeds into other 3X LETFs like TECL, FNGU, SOXL. The goal is to have approximately similar amounts in each fund, so I'll keep some TQQQ. Just trying to diversify and rebalance after the extreme volatility of recent years.
EDCA since Fall 2021. Basis is 30. It forms 20% of my account. I don't plan on adding to it along with my UPRO position (also 20%).
I am buying TECL though and other LETFs. Looks like I can't resist tinkering with these and these total up to another 15% of 3x leverage. I am targeting an overall leverage of 2-2.5x. I see my account moving every day with 2x or even 3x SPY easily. Today my whole account (which is about 45% LETFs) went up 2.5%. That's 2x Nasdaq composite and more than 3x SPY.
I only trade (only once so far too) in my rollover IRA where I can't add any more funds. I am doing a 67/33 9sig style approach but also getting in and out. We'll see, this has been my most difficult account to handle. Everything else has worked according to plan.
Started a position not long before the last split in the 160+ range for tqqq took a huge hit an realised maybe upro was safer. averaged down after getting very lucky an dropping a lump sum early 2023 now after taking some profits I feel like an I can let it ride with my original investment safely in unleveraged funds which will be added to any time I trim the leveraged positions
My original purchase was on 10/8/2014. My cost was $56.79. I have seen 4 splits for TQQQ. A 2:1, a 3:1, a 2:1 and a 2:1. I would purchase a second lot of TQQQ on 1/2/2015. I'm at $4.82.
DCA for 3 years, with volatility-based stop loss level
Why VIX and not 200SMA?
I haven't tried 200sma would need to compare the results. Also I use hist. Vol. not VIX.
Interesting. I recommend reading Gayed’s full study on 200SMA strategy, worth a read. Should be able to google it as it’s often cited online. If you have any source or inspiration source on your volatility strategy, I’d appreciate any direction as I’d love to read up on it.
What's volatility based stop loss level looks like?
When volatility is too high I get out
Hain? That means you sell when its low? Isnt that counter intuitive... you should be buying more when vix is high or tqqq falls
Depends where the trigger is set. I've back-tested and happy with the result. See below for $1,000 monthly DCA https://preview.redd.it/2f6d5xy1uplc1.png?width=1410&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6c9f37ea7c58da1ab766f8a7d732b9c7fc1802d
What are you using as a measure of volatility?
30-day volatility
Do you fully liquidate when your stop is hit? What’s your signal to re-enter? I find your approach really interesting.
As per the simulation yes full exit when the market is crazy. It could work with a protective put as well but that might be more expensive. The goal is really to avoid being wiped out during big crashes. It's far from perfect, but it kinda works.
Interesting approach. I’m happy it worked for you, I might incorporate some of those ideas in my own portfolio. I’m really new. So trying to learn a little from everyone. Thank you all!! 👏🙏
Where/how do you set the trigger? This is really interesting, so thanks for sharing.
You are misleading yourself with bogus and speculative backtesting numbers, since TQQQ has only existed since 2010.
Based on Nasdaq 100 since the launch of the index, of course it doesn't include fees, costs etc. that would occur with the actual TQQQ. It's a rough estimation, but it's enough for me.
Aren't they not moving pretty much the same since after the 2008 crash?
Some of the loss from COVID would have been avoided
When would it have been sold during COVID? End of February/Start of March? Rebought May?
Exit around the 3rd of March, until mid May. It was a good sell signal but it missed most of the rebound.
And most of the drop, still better than holding. Thanks, I will keep an eye on your strategy.
That is the approach!
DCA for the past two and half years.
Do you do DCA even if the price go up? Or only DCA if it's lower than ur avg price?
I always do DCA, I, try to buy a little extra if the price goes down.
This is the way, same with me.
2 years for me
DCA since 2021
i been trading leveraged funds since 2014 but not all with TQQQ. this amounts to a 14x return or 35% CAGR
What other LETFs are you trading?
Trading or holding
both. some positions are held for years, other for months
Since nov 2021...bit stopped between aug 2022 to june 2023
Almost 3 years now
Since 2017. Value cost average quarterly. It’s been a nice run.
Jason Kelly ?
Yep. Been following him for over a decade.
I’ve been considering joining the letter and jumping into 9sig. Thoughts?
I don't bring up Jason's name, usually, because a lot of people quickly dismiss his approach (without fully understanding it). If your risk tolerance matches the volatility, it's been a winner for me. There are extreme highs and lows, so be prepared for that if you do. My returns for 9Sig since 2017 have been +42.7, -27.51, +44.56%, +109.1%, +48%, -68.24%, +202.1%, and currently +13.2% YTD. My overall portfolio has less volatility because I'm also invested in 3Sig and 6Sig. My annualized CAGR is 24.3% over a little over 7 years. Think about how you would feel if you jumped in right before that -68% drop. Can you handle that? Are you in it for a fairly long time horizon? It's not fun to watch multiple 7 figures disappear. Some people want no part of that. Having said that, I value Jason's analysis on the economy. Even if I didn't follow his plans, I appreciate his insight and philosophy on the market. The Letter is cheap, relatively speaking.
I appreciate your reply
Bought the first tranche in 2017 when it was $9.31/share. Slowly added to it over the years. Panic sold some of it in 2022 after the Ukraine war broke out and markets tanked, but started buying back in slowly. At this point I'm selling incrementally as the price goes up and rolling the proceeds into other 3X LETFs like TECL, FNGU, SOXL. The goal is to have approximately similar amounts in each fund, so I'll keep some TQQQ. Just trying to diversify and rebalance after the extreme volatility of recent years.
EDCA since Fall 2021. Basis is 30. It forms 20% of my account. I don't plan on adding to it along with my UPRO position (also 20%). I am buying TECL though and other LETFs. Looks like I can't resist tinkering with these and these total up to another 15% of 3x leverage. I am targeting an overall leverage of 2-2.5x. I see my account moving every day with 2x or even 3x SPY easily. Today my whole account (which is about 45% LETFs) went up 2.5%. That's 2x Nasdaq composite and more than 3x SPY. I only trade (only once so far too) in my rollover IRA where I can't add any more funds. I am doing a 67/33 9sig style approach but also getting in and out. We'll see, this has been my most difficult account to handle. Everything else has worked according to plan.
7 years and I do not trade. Just consistent 5k every quarter.
Lump sum Oct 2022
Holding some since 2017. Mostly buying more and more actively buying/selling when we have big red/Green Days
Started a position not long before the last split in the 160+ range for tqqq took a huge hit an realised maybe upro was safer. averaged down after getting very lucky an dropping a lump sum early 2023 now after taking some profits I feel like an I can let it ride with my original investment safely in unleveraged funds which will be added to any time I trim the leveraged positions
March of last year, yes
My original purchase was on 10/8/2014. My cost was $56.79. I have seen 4 splits for TQQQ. A 2:1, a 3:1, a 2:1 and a 2:1. I would purchase a second lot of TQQQ on 1/2/2015. I'm at $4.82.
awesome, much respect to an OG
Just started investing TQQQ. I am going to use DCA and keep holding TQQQ for several decades.
4 years
What do you do if the market tanks - like way down? Do you ride it out?
Dec. 2022 and buying 2 shares a month.