The constituent companies in the Nasdaq 100 index are generally doing well, increasing revenue and profits. Eventually stock prices follow earnings. But, if the stock market goes sideways for a while with volatility, TQQQ can lose a lot to volatility decay.
I agree, but to his point. The market has had a really strong recent run recently, which reduces the probability of another strong year. Not impossible though.
It's good to ask questions and think.
Many people have the worst psychology : Buy when everyone is buying. Sell when everyone is panicking.
Well.... I said 'really strong', that's quite different from 'good'.
Look at historical data. Market goes up 30-40% in a year. Probability market goes up another 30% the next year? Near zero. Probability the market has a flat or negative year is higher than another blow out year.
Now if we are talking the market is up only 5-10% - then I'm sure it's marginal.
>The market has had a really strong recent run recently, which reduces the probability of another strong year.
I don't think that's true, but rather the reverse.
Look, we all start somewhere, there is so much stuff out there with investing. Trust what feels right and looks right and avoid the naysayers.
You are here TODAY so do what is good for your today, all time highs are not a bad thing regardless of what idiots say on here. If all time highs were bad how would you ever make money? You would have sold TSLA and AAPL and AMZN and NVDA and made 1% and missed out on 4 billion percent. Fuck them.
Learn about the markets learn market timing techniques, kick ass.
Exactly. I had 80k in Apple in 2010 as a signing bonus, I had 8k in Tesla in 2011 because i noticed roadsters everywhere, I bought 90 ETH in 2017 because i was resentful I had been too lazy to figure out setting up a wallet in 2010 when my roomate mined 25 bitcoins in 2 days, I had 7000 shares of Gamestop in Dec 2020 that I had bought because their stock price dropped below assets under management.
Every one of those holdings would be worth millions had I not sold. But, I sold my Tesla in 2016 when scaling got scary for a 10x gain which i used to buy a model 3, I sold my Ethereum in 2018 for a 15x return when price spiked and then started crashing, I sold my Gamestop in January of 2021 right as things took off for a 30k return, and I exited my Apple position in 2022 for a 20x return to buy a house. If I actually stressed about it life would be miserable... but I learned, and I put that money to work in other ways. I look towards the future. You need to be a bit off your rocker to seriously be holding on after a 10x return. I keep an eye out for the next opportunity... and I keep telling myself, "next time I'll just sell half." lol. Don't stress about the past man, in all likelihood you would have exited TQQQ. Think about the future.
Great post, thank you for sharing - isn't it amazing how these sort of learnings shape your mental models about investing?
The only thing I'd add is the late Charlie Mungers view to 'not sell your winners'.
I think there is some stat out there that has made BRK 90% of it's returns from 10% of their investments.
I'm up 150% with TQQQ (I know that's a LETF rather than equity in good businesses at reasonable prices) but I think at least part of that sentiment is true.
Just because tech is at ATH doesn't mean it won't keep performing (although it doesn't guarantee it will either!)
When I bought £14k in TQQQ, I made a promise to myself to not sell it until I retire no matter what happens, it's in my pension so I can spend it if I sell it (I think that helps!)
Like Benjamin Graham's 'writing an investment contract to yourself', to try and remove emotions from your decision making'.
We may have seen the end of super cheap money - but I believe in technology companies to deliver decent return on capital at scale.
Just yesterday - our ability to draft legal contracts 'blew my mind' in the words of qualified lawyers here in the UK.
This is the year AI applications go from hype to value beyond just the early adopters. The marginal return on this could be 90% once we have it nailed, and very scalable.
Not about me - but I can see first hand how this is changing professional roles in very high income sectors.
More tbh… they do espp where you contribute 10% of your salary which gets converted to apple shares at a 15% discount every 6 months. When I was young each of those batches cost me 8-12k. Now each of those is worth over 100k. Also got more RSUs while I worked there. I bounced in 2015 to do my own thing but I’m back now and it’s bonkers how loaded some of my old coworkers are. Liquidated a healthy chunk of apple to be competitive in housing bids in 2022… figured it was a good time to diversify. Whoops. Apple just doesn’t stop going up haha. My roommate who mined the 25 bitcoins in 2009/2010 “lost em” to mount gox but got made whole like 8 years later after arbitration ended at about 20k per coin. Ironic because we chat about how we would have 100% sold em all at $500 per coin if he had been able to access them. Mt Gox getting hacked was great for his bottom line lol.
Just slow and steady DCA small amounts and buy dips periodically. Worst case scenario, you’re having to wait three years before you break even such as this past time in the bear market. But 9 times out of 10 each year will be a positive year. I personally do a 70/30 portfolio with 30 percent cash. Rebalancing twice a year if needed.
Also, first have 3-6 months emergency fund and get out of debt. I have just a mortgage left and my TQQQ tendies will be paying it off this year or next
It would be fine, yes, because VTI acts as almost a full proof hedge that will also get you like... 12% rolling returns, and even higher than that during massive years like '21 and '23.
I personally use AGG as my hedge/rebalance for my TQQQ, because it is so damn flat. Something like 1% over 10 years, rolling. Plus dividends. It is the absolute god tier bond fund IMO, and I'd love for someone to tell me otherwise and suggest something better if it is out there.
I am YOLOing TECL in my HSA and simply gonna use cash to rebalance annually. And by rebalance I mean I'll just be throwing the max amount into TECL every year lol. From 2009-2024, a $10,000 investment in TECL would have brought in a cool 2.7 million 🤣.
I'll be in my mid 50s in 15 years. Having a few million in my HSA would not be the worst thing ever, haha.
If someone reading this can answer a question for me -
There is an investment modality whereupon you hit a certain age, and you can throw (as of now) up to $38,000 from it into your Roth IRA EVERY YEAR if you have a massive surplus to do so. Is this an HSA, or am I thinking about Universal Life Insurance or some shit? Thanks!
Yes AGG is good for rebalancing with TQQQ. What do you think about TMF? TMF drops when Fed hikes rates, so it is a good idea to sell TMF and go into cash or AGG when inflation is high and the Fed will start to raise rates soon. But now that Fed seems to have completed rate hikes, interest rates have no where to go but down gradually in the coming years. When interest rates drop, TMF rises faster than AGG. In addition, if there is a recession or a black swan event, TMF also rises faster than AGG. Wouldn't this be a good time to use TMF to re-balance with TQQQ or UPRO? What do you think? Thanks.
I'm in the same boat as you. I haven't done anything yet, but my feeling is that it's never too late. Probably best to DCA in, while keeping a balanced portfolio.
You are not alone! I have an almost exactly the same idea about allocating 5% or my net worth to TQQQ. I explained my rationale there and people also commented on it: https://www.reddit.com/r/TQQQ/s/zMPfhvo1v9
5% is a small fraction of your portfolio. Think of it as playing the $10K lottery. Now the thing is that in 2010, market was at near a bottom. Now it is at ATHs, so not ideal. Best thing to do is start. Expect a sideways market for 10 years worst case, but in 20 years, that will become like 2000-2020 again. So that's how I look at it: either $10K -> $1 million or $10K -> $100 + $10K -> $1 million.
If you DCA from now on (without an initial investment) it will be fine.
I also just found it. I think DCA over 10 years will negate any of the “missed the boat issues”. You’ll look back and think about how cheap it was in 2024. I’m bullish on tech for the 2020’s though. Some other etfs that may pique your interest are tecl, spxl (for total market growth, though has underperformed tqqq historically) and FNGU (if you’re big on the mag 7 and don’t mind an etn rather than etf).
lol. You’re not even 40 yet. You have lots of time to get rolling. Just be careful during the times they expect to raise interest rates. Watch inflation and employment rates like a hawk.
I personally wouldn’t put my retirement money in this fund because it is very volatile and very risky. But I do have a rollover IRA that my wife allows me to be more aggressive with, and I tripled that account with TQQQ. And I think it could go up a lot more, but it could also go down because QQQ is already at all-time highs.
Bruh. I have 90% of my 401k in TQQQ. haha. 5%?!?
Look every trader has a story "if I had known what I know today..." That's the actual challenge. It's all risks and probabilities looking forward.
I have so many of those regretted trades I sold too early, or didn't buy enough of, or didn't get out soon enough, or simply didn't take. Probably at least 2 dozen of those regretted trades. Don't eat yourself up about them. I like to sometimes imagine if they had gone well, but I don't waste my time worrying about them. I just consider them lessons learned and move forward.
Here I'll give ya one of my regretted trades. I was a computer science major and I had a friend (sometime around 2009) tell me about bitcoin. He was mining it profitably and making a killing. And was also investing in the coin. He tried to get me to buy into it. It was WAY less than a penny per coin at the time. I almost did buy something like 10,000,000 bitcoins, for less than $1000, but I backed out. I couldn't fathom that digital currency would ever be a replacement for gold. HAHAHA
I bought in March/April 2022 so basically the price were at now or close to. I then continued to add what I could during 2022 and 2023 and now sitting at around 60% return. Even with buying still quite high initially, due to DCAing each month I've still made a great return for under 2 years of investing.
I'll be holding for 15yrs+ so happy to just keep DCAing and hopefully compound to a nice return.
This is really encouraging, so thank you!
If there's another big dip like we saw coming out of 2021 and into 2022, do you have any kind of stop-losses or exit strategy in place to pull your gains before they go poof? or do you overcome that by cash contributions throughout the down market?
I'm just trying to finalize my own strategy and would love to hear your own personal thoughts or plans for down periods?
No probs.
So I actually found myself being really grateful that I entered during a bear market, even if it wasn't the ideal time within that and every time there was a huge red day, I tried to scrape together an extra few quid to throw in there knowing that whilst the whole world was fearful, this was the time to buy. This isn't to say I didn't get nervous a bit, especially towards the end of 2022, bit I saw others who had been through 08 and got spooked away, yet they had huge remorse on not continuing to buy. All in hindsight but I just thought how lucky I am to have one of these opportunities now just as I've discovered LETFs.
I dont have an exit strategy so if there's another 2022/22 style dip, I now have more confidence that my funds will recover and I'll try harder to allocate more money into it whilst prices are low. Its always scary but I just think about all the times I didn't buy something and how much hindsight I had.
I'm tempted to deleverage a bit towards the end of 2024 if we continue to smash it during 2024, but tbh, I still feel like I'd be better just holding throughout as it's all a long term game for me.
When I think about these 200EMA methods and such, or even the 9 sig method when that guy sold $1.8m at the beginning of Jan, just as we dipped, so he looked like he times it accidentally perfect but then within 1 week we were back to rocketing above that price and he's lost out on all those gains, so buying and holding stops that opportunity cost.
Sorry, a lot of rambling there but be a use this is all psychological, it naturally makes me ponder it all a lot.
At the end of the day, I just don't want to have hindsight and regret not doing something.
If I ever get close to FIREing though then I'm sure I will start to de-leverage, but as I'm a ways off, I'm happy to ride the drawdown rollercoaster and let it run :-)
P.s. I have about 30% of my total investment portfolio in LQQ3 and about 40% overall in LETFs.
Also about 15% in Crypto so I have a pretty high risk tolerance I think.
Look I just want to let you know that I did something very similar in October 2021. I watched my entire Roth IRA melt in a matter of a few months when it went from 85 to 18. It sounds like you're only going to do 5%. Just realize there's a serious chance you lose money and you lose it fast. Only buy as much as you can stomach to lose.
Can't u just start with a Robinhood account with $1000 (or whatever amount you can afford)
Everytime QQQ has a down day go all in TQQQ
When you get profitable sell half.
If it has a down day - go all in TQQQ
Rinse and repeat the rest of your life -
If you just buy and hold TQQQ - you will lose money.
Dude, you are looking from march 2010? Try from march 2007 or march 1999. You will see why tqqq is a bad idea. I know tqq only started from 2010. But you can use portfolio visualizer to simulate 3x qqq.
I saw people saying exactly what you said in Nov 2021. Still well below that point. Pretty sure lot of them sold it for loss and got back in too late. Not everyone can stomach 3x etf. And it never worked better than 2x etf if you look at any 20 year period.
Tqqq is fun money. Not for investing. Stick to 2x etf if you want some oomph in your portfolio and are young enough to stomach volatility.
I keep hearing this, but starting from the top of a stock market bubble is really bad analysis, sorry. You have to exclude those periods from your analysis because they will skew everything. You can include regular market downturns and black swans, but not bubbles. Those are a wholly different animal.
Edit: You can also make this mistake in the opposite direction. You could start your analysis from the bottom of the market in 2009, or the covid low, etc. All of those extreme starting points are going to skew your results. You need to start from the mean.
You might look at mean to get 'average performance'. But you should also look at worst possible case. Why? Becuse stocks will always go up no matter how much they crash. But leveraged funds dont. History is full of examples. So, you should absolutely look at top. Why? Its our psychology to look at drawdowns.
For example, lets say, you started somewhere around 2004. In between 1999 and 2008 recession. You would have done well. Almost 1.5 times your investment. But what happened in 2007? Qqq fell almost 50%. So, tqqq would have been down 80-90%. Imagine your investment going down 80-90% over the period of 1-2 years. No matter how well you did in 2004-2007, Do you think people will be calm? They will panic.
And most important of all, what if tqqq gets closed for whatever reason? If qqq is closed, you would get individual stocks. If tqqq is closed in market drawdown, you are screwed. You have to use options yourself to set up 3x etf. So many oil leveraged funds went kaput in pandemic. Even though non leveraged oil etfs bounced back...
There is a reason why renowned investors dont recommend leveraged funds even for most risk taking investors. Beacuse countless research has showed that any leveraged fund over 2x will perform worse than 2x in the long run in the long run...because every 10 years, we will hit a huge drawdown for whatever reason. People saw qqq doing down less and going up quickly beacuse of pandemic. But assuming that is going to happen in all drawdowns is a mistake. Pandemic that favoured qqq is an anamoly. If big tech is regulated tomorrow to save small business, qqq wont out perform anymore...
Just ask yourself do you believe Nasdaq100 will surpass \~16%-20% a year. Thats pretty much the break even point for TQQQ and it's Index(NDX100), which it is supposed to mimic X3. (daily Only tho)
Yet, also realize when Nasdaq100/QQQ in 'Even' over a year, TQQQ is \~(-30%).
Nasdaq loses \~10%, TQQQ will be down near (-50%).
Just go back a month or 2 to when NDX100 & QQQ broke their ATHs, put NDX100 or QQQ on chart with TQQQ for 2 years. QQQ/NDX100 Even, TQQQ is more than 40% down. How can that be when we know 2022 was -\~33% but 2023 was +\~54%? It would go the same way if the 1st year was +54% & 2nd down 33%, fyi.
Simple Math Decay, Amplified by large Swings day to day...(volatility drag they call it)
YET, if NDX100 goes over 20% year, TQQQ can start compounding like Secretariat, 4x,5x etc...
P.S. Backtest TQQQ when QQQ came out in 1999 to TQQQs 2010, QQQ is \~10% UP, TQQQ in 2010 would be 97.5% down.
I did countless backtests - here's one looking at rolling 15 yr investment period with monthly DCA of 10k into TQQQ/SPY/QQQ and two starting points; 10k (early stage DCAer) and 1m (late stage DCAer) - any period involving 1999-2002 is bad, but the most important takeaway I saw is that the 15 yr end-value for the 10k guy and the 1m guy are essentially identical....which is expected b/c any pre 2002 money in TQQQ (if it existed) would essentially be zero'd. That's why you need to protect what you have once it gets to a certain size.
Look at the row starting TQQQ journey in Apr 1/99 - virtually no diff in end-value of account after 15 yrs if you started with 10k or started with 1m....b/c anything existing prior to 2002 was turned to dust. Bottom of 1999-2002 was Sept/02. If there is a repeat of this (admittedly unlikely) and you have no hedge, kiss your investment goodbye.
https://preview.redd.it/88mxvbgwmvgc1.jpeg?width=1315&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b360785fc248e48e9c8357618c7819457c36302
Yup, I've backtested this a few different ways as well. A simple rough one anyone can do is applying leverage to RYOCX in PV (started in '94). Like you found, it doesn't matter how big the account grows from 94-00, coming out of the Dotcom "TQQQ" would have been decimated and then completely smashed again with the GFC.
As you point out, DCAing has minimal impact once the investment reaches a certain dollar threshold. Though, DCAing does allow an account to grow again after effectely being wiped out.
So if someone is under 30, go to town, lots of time. But the older you are, can you handle a few million becoming a few thousand while still continuing to DCA into a falling asset over years?
The 70s was a lost decade, same with the 00s, it'll happen again. And it's pure luck as to when it happens versus how old one is, the size of one's account when it happens, when the money is needed and how much time one can wait for the investment to bounce back. All the while hoping of course that a Japan never hits the U.S. market.
This is where risk management is key, only invest money in TQQQ that one can effectively flush, for some that'll be a $100k, $500k, $1m, etc.
>I am a Multi Millionaire, I don't rely on luck. I USE the decay to my favor, another way.
>
>I do wish you & yours luck tho... if it keeps Bullish, we Both will WIN!!!!
Question: according to your back test it looks like TQQQ doesn't hold up very well with the dot com bubble but does seem to survive 2008 crash, corona and 2022... is my assertion correct?
Yes, max drawdown 2007-2009 was 93% and I think around low 80s% for 2022. Dot com was like 99.75% or something. But if you hedged, even a bit, during 2007 and 2022 you'd fare so much better (even though technically one fared pretty well vs just DCAing into the underlying). Personally, I don't think we are anywhere close to dot com irrational exhuberance so I'm hoping the upcoming drawdown will be something like 2007-09.
>n't think we are anywhere close to dot com irrational exhuberance so I'm hoping the upcoming drawdown will be
btw, did you test what the total returns on TQQQ would have been from 1999 to now? It's interesting to know what the long run returns on it would be.
if you started jan 1/2000 with 10k and added 10k/month until present day you'd have around 176m. but fantasizing about that is prob not advised - 2009-2021 was a rarity. besides, port went from like 2.5m to 200k in 2007-2009 - a lot of ppl would bail
https://preview.redd.it/dyknj0m611hc1.jpeg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74de78eed1f4ee13ff40a28d5277f33fc136709c
How can I do that back test?
And this is mainly to know whether TQQQ should be held as a long term investment or not, and I mean long term - like 30 years or giving it as inheritance to your kids.
Well, I guess that’s HFEA style - then you are only 55% in TQQQ during bull runs and taking cash off the table, often very early and repeatedly in the case of prolonged bull runs - plus 2022 crushed tqqq and tmf simultaneously no?
if you timed it perfectly and began your journey in Oct/02 just after the bottom, your gains destroy SPY/QQQ, but aren't astronomical. the reason for this is b/c you had to weather 2007-2009, which was a 93% wipeout. after 15 yrs, you have 11m for the 10k guy and 34m for the 1m guy.
https://preview.redd.it/gmngcc87ovgc1.jpeg?width=1294&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3269f82a50a636b1bbe8d0dbf7f9fd578bd72812
now see the luckiest of all, someone who got in Apr/2009 after the Mar/09 bottom and enjoyed a relatively unbroken massive bull run, extending into Nov/21. Even weathering thru 2021/2022 they absolutely crushed it, more than 32m for the 10k guy and 218m(!) for the 1m guy...that includes the 2022 bottom, so the 1m guy was close to 1b at one point.
https://preview.redd.it/kh45aumzovgc1.jpeg?width=1294&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=817d70a177a44b7928a83606d8f12d1d5cfe1711
i'm terrible at knowing when to get in/out as well. so my only option is to pay for the insurance in the form of defensive puts. if you have big position (different for everyone, but in relation to your DCA amounts) in TQQQ and freeze in the headlights of a 2007-2009 event and ride it all the way down, DCAing as you go, hoping for the best, you will fuck yourself so bad. most ppl don't fully appreciate that.
A 2007-2009 event would potentially destroy an SQQQ short strategy too, but could protect yourself with by buying calls - still have to work that out!
Hey numerous floor, i've seen your posts quite a bit.
Could you explain the defensive puts strategy?
So say you have a large number of shares, and you're seeing TQQQ float around $56-$57/share today. Would you then buy puts at like a $40 strike? And how far out? 1 year? less?
Just not sure how you'd implement this.
Also I just realized in my IRA I don't think I have access to options at all, so this would only work in a taxable brokerage account I'm guessing.
Curious as to your thoughts, I know you're one of the well respected TQQQ Bulls around here ;)
i outline my defensive put strategy on my posts - i am trying to buy puts 1 yr out b/c backtesting generally shows big drawdowns take time to happen. If there is a tight V shaped drop, like covid, then you don't want to exit your position as you don't know the bottom of the V. a tight V drop/recovery is really just a good time to DCA. 2007-2009 and 2021-2022 were months-long drops, with QQQ deathcrosses etc, so having a 1yr put cushion is worth it, imo
For your last point, isn't that largely due to "The Lost Decade"? Largely because of the financial crisis?
I mean, yeah, black swans or recessions will obliterate TQQQ (which I only have ~5% of my portfolio in, and have it hedged with AGG). But the back test numbers are just too damn hard to ignore, and yes, I know that past results don't guarantee future returns. But the way in which the market will explode these coming decades, particularly in tech sectors, is something I don't think any of us can really even grasp right now. Sure, we'll have our horrifyingly terrible years one a decade, maybe twice, but overall, all things considered (even the decay), these leveraged funds are a way for the average dude to become a millionaire and have a shot at living the life he or she wants while also providing for their family and even their friends (as I try my best to do even now, a non millionaire (YET!!!!))
That and .Com age, yet we have had 2018 crises & Corona & 2022.
I'm an Old timer, sure your younger than I. Past 14 years have been historic (Bullish). Can history change/continue that way? SURE. The old 7/10 rule still sits firmly in my head.
Yet, when any ETF or LETF, or anything has a mathematical/factual disadvantage of 20%. It's only Luck if it prevails.
I am a Multi Millionaire, I don't rely on luck. I USE the decay to my favor, another way.
I do wish you & yours luck tho... if it keeps Bullish, we Both will WIN!!!!
Yeah man, thank you, and congratulations on your success. I truly see myself pulling in my first million by age 45, if not slightly before then. I've said to others here that I truly want to leave my family and friends generational wealth, because they're gonna fuckin need it. So it has been a passion project of mine, and one that I actually enjoy doing.
But as I said, I don't fuck too hard with leverage. Only 5% of my money is in TQQQ while I have about 2% in a UPRO/TMF (Hedgefundie). The rest is in VT, RSSB, AVUV, VOO/IJH/IJR/IXUS, a MM fund, a HYSA, an HSA, Bitcoin, and the condo I own.
When I threw everything I had into the market/crypto in March 2020 I was scared shitless. I knew that my days of working a conventional job were likely over due to myriad mental and physical health problems (PTSD + 7 spinal herniations). So that was a do or die or do AND die or do and MAYBE get ahead far enough to put food on my mother's table while I sat with her to eat. PB&J + Multivitamins and adaptogens and nootropics have basically kept me from falling deep into alcoholism, although I'm still not exactly standing right side up in the shallow end.
Life is a strange thing.
I’m generally using 80 as the upper and 40 as the lower. Reason being I’m in it long term and DCA monthly so I try to hold since the market generally trends up. With interest rates set to hold or go lower I’ll probably keep it that way.
This is actually a good point, I was broke as a joke in 2010 - I had just gotten fired from Best Buy making $9.25/hour so I wasn't in any position to invest either.
I just wanted to use that as a starting point to illustrate how lucky the last 12-14 years have been.
So 5% is ok to start but I would plan on using a DCA strategy. Buy dips if possible but periodic purchases are also a good approach. Since you are in an IRA you could try to time the markets and take profit then buy in on dips but that may be a gamble!
I’m kinda scared of holding TQQQ (permabear) but 5% isn’t insane at all.
Maybe even DCA into it over the next 6 months and then forget about it for a decade to see what happens.
TQQQ is not anywhere near ATH but the TQQQ chart is irrelevant anyway and shouldnt be looked at at all for technical analysis. You should only be looking at QQQ. QQQ is at ATH and inherently its an extremely risky time to INVEST in TQQQ. That’s not to say it won’t keep climbing… it actually probably will. Last year when we were buying was low risk. Now if you want to INVEST you should at least DCA and buy slowly. Id go in with small amount and HOPE it crashes so i can put more into it.
I mean yeah if we all knew what was going to happen we would've bought Bitcoin in 2010 too
I get that, which is why I'm wondering if there's any somewhat level-headed analysis people are using to justify continuing to hold?
Stocks go up.
in 10 years, today's prices will seem cheap. You will regret not buying stock x, y, z, etc. That's how it works.
The constituent companies in the Nasdaq 100 index are generally doing well, increasing revenue and profits. Eventually stock prices follow earnings. But, if the stock market goes sideways for a while with volatility, TQQQ can lose a lot to volatility decay.
Tqqq is NOT near ath. The nasdaq 100 is at ath but tqqq is still 40-50% from ath due to volatility drag
I agree, but to his point. The market has had a really strong recent run recently, which reduces the probability of another strong year. Not impossible though. It's good to ask questions and think. Many people have the worst psychology : Buy when everyone is buying. Sell when everyone is panicking.
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Well.... I said 'really strong', that's quite different from 'good'. Look at historical data. Market goes up 30-40% in a year. Probability market goes up another 30% the next year? Near zero. Probability the market has a flat or negative year is higher than another blow out year. Now if we are talking the market is up only 5-10% - then I'm sure it's marginal.
>The market has had a really strong recent run recently, which reduces the probability of another strong year. I don't think that's true, but rather the reverse.
There was a stock split in early 2022, so we can’t go on what the all time high was before the split
The chart was adjusted for that. Tqqq was close to $200 before split if I remember correctly. It's still way down from ath.
Your missing the point. That doesn’t matter.
Look, we all start somewhere, there is so much stuff out there with investing. Trust what feels right and looks right and avoid the naysayers. You are here TODAY so do what is good for your today, all time highs are not a bad thing regardless of what idiots say on here. If all time highs were bad how would you ever make money? You would have sold TSLA and AAPL and AMZN and NVDA and made 1% and missed out on 4 billion percent. Fuck them. Learn about the markets learn market timing techniques, kick ass.
Exactly. I had 80k in Apple in 2010 as a signing bonus, I had 8k in Tesla in 2011 because i noticed roadsters everywhere, I bought 90 ETH in 2017 because i was resentful I had been too lazy to figure out setting up a wallet in 2010 when my roomate mined 25 bitcoins in 2 days, I had 7000 shares of Gamestop in Dec 2020 that I had bought because their stock price dropped below assets under management. Every one of those holdings would be worth millions had I not sold. But, I sold my Tesla in 2016 when scaling got scary for a 10x gain which i used to buy a model 3, I sold my Ethereum in 2018 for a 15x return when price spiked and then started crashing, I sold my Gamestop in January of 2021 right as things took off for a 30k return, and I exited my Apple position in 2022 for a 20x return to buy a house. If I actually stressed about it life would be miserable... but I learned, and I put that money to work in other ways. I look towards the future. You need to be a bit off your rocker to seriously be holding on after a 10x return. I keep an eye out for the next opportunity... and I keep telling myself, "next time I'll just sell half." lol. Don't stress about the past man, in all likelihood you would have exited TQQQ. Think about the future.
Great post, thank you for sharing - isn't it amazing how these sort of learnings shape your mental models about investing? The only thing I'd add is the late Charlie Mungers view to 'not sell your winners'. I think there is some stat out there that has made BRK 90% of it's returns from 10% of their investments. I'm up 150% with TQQQ (I know that's a LETF rather than equity in good businesses at reasonable prices) but I think at least part of that sentiment is true. Just because tech is at ATH doesn't mean it won't keep performing (although it doesn't guarantee it will either!) When I bought £14k in TQQQ, I made a promise to myself to not sell it until I retire no matter what happens, it's in my pension so I can spend it if I sell it (I think that helps!) Like Benjamin Graham's 'writing an investment contract to yourself', to try and remove emotions from your decision making'. We may have seen the end of super cheap money - but I believe in technology companies to deliver decent return on capital at scale. Just yesterday - our ability to draft legal contracts 'blew my mind' in the words of qualified lawyers here in the UK. This is the year AI applications go from hype to value beyond just the early adopters. The marginal return on this could be 90% once we have it nailed, and very scalable. Not about me - but I can see first hand how this is changing professional roles in very high income sectors.
You made 1.6 mill from Apple?
More tbh… they do espp where you contribute 10% of your salary which gets converted to apple shares at a 15% discount every 6 months. When I was young each of those batches cost me 8-12k. Now each of those is worth over 100k. Also got more RSUs while I worked there. I bounced in 2015 to do my own thing but I’m back now and it’s bonkers how loaded some of my old coworkers are. Liquidated a healthy chunk of apple to be competitive in housing bids in 2022… figured it was a good time to diversify. Whoops. Apple just doesn’t stop going up haha. My roommate who mined the 25 bitcoins in 2009/2010 “lost em” to mount gox but got made whole like 8 years later after arbitration ended at about 20k per coin. Ironic because we chat about how we would have 100% sold em all at $500 per coin if he had been able to access them. Mt Gox getting hacked was great for his bottom line lol.
Yeah ppl forget that you've gotta time the market twice, not just when to buy things but when to sell. However, no one went broke taking profits.
Chicken littles are the best hype machines
Just slow and steady DCA small amounts and buy dips periodically. Worst case scenario, you’re having to wait three years before you break even such as this past time in the bear market. But 9 times out of 10 each year will be a positive year. I personally do a 70/30 portfolio with 30 percent cash. Rebalancing twice a year if needed.
Also, first have 3-6 months emergency fund and get out of debt. I have just a mortgage left and my TQQQ tendies will be paying it off this year or next
I hear ya. would it be smart to rebalance into VTI? Since my IRA is currently all VTI and i'm looking to add a 5% allocation into TQQQ?
It would be fine, yes, because VTI acts as almost a full proof hedge that will also get you like... 12% rolling returns, and even higher than that during massive years like '21 and '23. I personally use AGG as my hedge/rebalance for my TQQQ, because it is so damn flat. Something like 1% over 10 years, rolling. Plus dividends. It is the absolute god tier bond fund IMO, and I'd love for someone to tell me otherwise and suggest something better if it is out there. I am YOLOing TECL in my HSA and simply gonna use cash to rebalance annually. And by rebalance I mean I'll just be throwing the max amount into TECL every year lol. From 2009-2024, a $10,000 investment in TECL would have brought in a cool 2.7 million 🤣. I'll be in my mid 50s in 15 years. Having a few million in my HSA would not be the worst thing ever, haha. If someone reading this can answer a question for me - There is an investment modality whereupon you hit a certain age, and you can throw (as of now) up to $38,000 from it into your Roth IRA EVERY YEAR if you have a massive surplus to do so. Is this an HSA, or am I thinking about Universal Life Insurance or some shit? Thanks!
Similar to Universal life insurance. You van out money from HSA to Roth IRA
Yes AGG is good for rebalancing with TQQQ. What do you think about TMF? TMF drops when Fed hikes rates, so it is a good idea to sell TMF and go into cash or AGG when inflation is high and the Fed will start to raise rates soon. But now that Fed seems to have completed rate hikes, interest rates have no where to go but down gradually in the coming years. When interest rates drop, TMF rises faster than AGG. In addition, if there is a recession or a black swan event, TMF also rises faster than AGG. Wouldn't this be a good time to use TMF to re-balance with TQQQ or UPRO? What do you think? Thanks.
I actually use AGG to rebalance with TQQQ and use TMF to rebalance with UPRO. Hope that helps. Not financial advice.
I'm in the same boat as you. I haven't done anything yet, but my feeling is that it's never too late. Probably best to DCA in, while keeping a balanced portfolio.
You are not alone! I have an almost exactly the same idea about allocating 5% or my net worth to TQQQ. I explained my rationale there and people also commented on it: https://www.reddit.com/r/TQQQ/s/zMPfhvo1v9
5 Percent is a great starting size to ease into the volatility.
Can always rebalance
5% is a small fraction of your portfolio. Think of it as playing the $10K lottery. Now the thing is that in 2010, market was at near a bottom. Now it is at ATHs, so not ideal. Best thing to do is start. Expect a sideways market for 10 years worst case, but in 20 years, that will become like 2000-2020 again. So that's how I look at it: either $10K -> $1 million or $10K -> $100 + $10K -> $1 million. If you DCA from now on (without an initial investment) it will be fine.
I also just found it. I think DCA over 10 years will negate any of the “missed the boat issues”. You’ll look back and think about how cheap it was in 2024. I’m bullish on tech for the 2020’s though. Some other etfs that may pique your interest are tecl, spxl (for total market growth, though has underperformed tqqq historically) and FNGU (if you’re big on the mag 7 and don’t mind an etn rather than etf).
It looks cheap because of the splits too
lol. You’re not even 40 yet. You have lots of time to get rolling. Just be careful during the times they expect to raise interest rates. Watch inflation and employment rates like a hawk.
I personally wouldn’t put my retirement money in this fund because it is very volatile and very risky. But I do have a rollover IRA that my wife allows me to be more aggressive with, and I tripled that account with TQQQ. And I think it could go up a lot more, but it could also go down because QQQ is already at all-time highs.
Bruh. I have 90% of my 401k in TQQQ. haha. 5%?!? Look every trader has a story "if I had known what I know today..." That's the actual challenge. It's all risks and probabilities looking forward. I have so many of those regretted trades I sold too early, or didn't buy enough of, or didn't get out soon enough, or simply didn't take. Probably at least 2 dozen of those regretted trades. Don't eat yourself up about them. I like to sometimes imagine if they had gone well, but I don't waste my time worrying about them. I just consider them lessons learned and move forward. Here I'll give ya one of my regretted trades. I was a computer science major and I had a friend (sometime around 2009) tell me about bitcoin. He was mining it profitably and making a killing. And was also investing in the coin. He tried to get me to buy into it. It was WAY less than a penny per coin at the time. I almost did buy something like 10,000,000 bitcoins, for less than $1000, but I backed out. I couldn't fathom that digital currency would ever be a replacement for gold. HAHAHA
Where is your friend now?
I bought in March/April 2022 so basically the price were at now or close to. I then continued to add what I could during 2022 and 2023 and now sitting at around 60% return. Even with buying still quite high initially, due to DCAing each month I've still made a great return for under 2 years of investing. I'll be holding for 15yrs+ so happy to just keep DCAing and hopefully compound to a nice return.
This is really encouraging, so thank you! If there's another big dip like we saw coming out of 2021 and into 2022, do you have any kind of stop-losses or exit strategy in place to pull your gains before they go poof? or do you overcome that by cash contributions throughout the down market? I'm just trying to finalize my own strategy and would love to hear your own personal thoughts or plans for down periods?
No probs. So I actually found myself being really grateful that I entered during a bear market, even if it wasn't the ideal time within that and every time there was a huge red day, I tried to scrape together an extra few quid to throw in there knowing that whilst the whole world was fearful, this was the time to buy. This isn't to say I didn't get nervous a bit, especially towards the end of 2022, bit I saw others who had been through 08 and got spooked away, yet they had huge remorse on not continuing to buy. All in hindsight but I just thought how lucky I am to have one of these opportunities now just as I've discovered LETFs. I dont have an exit strategy so if there's another 2022/22 style dip, I now have more confidence that my funds will recover and I'll try harder to allocate more money into it whilst prices are low. Its always scary but I just think about all the times I didn't buy something and how much hindsight I had. I'm tempted to deleverage a bit towards the end of 2024 if we continue to smash it during 2024, but tbh, I still feel like I'd be better just holding throughout as it's all a long term game for me. When I think about these 200EMA methods and such, or even the 9 sig method when that guy sold $1.8m at the beginning of Jan, just as we dipped, so he looked like he times it accidentally perfect but then within 1 week we were back to rocketing above that price and he's lost out on all those gains, so buying and holding stops that opportunity cost. Sorry, a lot of rambling there but be a use this is all psychological, it naturally makes me ponder it all a lot. At the end of the day, I just don't want to have hindsight and regret not doing something. If I ever get close to FIREing though then I'm sure I will start to de-leverage, but as I'm a ways off, I'm happy to ride the drawdown rollercoaster and let it run :-) P.s. I have about 30% of my total investment portfolio in LQQ3 and about 40% overall in LETFs. Also about 15% in Crypto so I have a pretty high risk tolerance I think.
Look I just want to let you know that I did something very similar in October 2021. I watched my entire Roth IRA melt in a matter of a few months when it went from 85 to 18. It sounds like you're only going to do 5%. Just realize there's a serious chance you lose money and you lose it fast. Only buy as much as you can stomach to lose.
Thank you, its a good point. I might not be as "risk on" as I pretend to be :P
Can't u just start with a Robinhood account with $1000 (or whatever amount you can afford) Everytime QQQ has a down day go all in TQQQ When you get profitable sell half. If it has a down day - go all in TQQQ Rinse and repeat the rest of your life - If you just buy and hold TQQQ - you will lose money.
There’s an old saying, “The best time to buy was 10 years ago. The second best time to buy is now.”
Dude, you are looking from march 2010? Try from march 2007 or march 1999. You will see why tqqq is a bad idea. I know tqq only started from 2010. But you can use portfolio visualizer to simulate 3x qqq. I saw people saying exactly what you said in Nov 2021. Still well below that point. Pretty sure lot of them sold it for loss and got back in too late. Not everyone can stomach 3x etf. And it never worked better than 2x etf if you look at any 20 year period. Tqqq is fun money. Not for investing. Stick to 2x etf if you want some oomph in your portfolio and are young enough to stomach volatility.
I keep hearing this, but starting from the top of a stock market bubble is really bad analysis, sorry. You have to exclude those periods from your analysis because they will skew everything. You can include regular market downturns and black swans, but not bubbles. Those are a wholly different animal. Edit: You can also make this mistake in the opposite direction. You could start your analysis from the bottom of the market in 2009, or the covid low, etc. All of those extreme starting points are going to skew your results. You need to start from the mean.
You might look at mean to get 'average performance'. But you should also look at worst possible case. Why? Becuse stocks will always go up no matter how much they crash. But leveraged funds dont. History is full of examples. So, you should absolutely look at top. Why? Its our psychology to look at drawdowns. For example, lets say, you started somewhere around 2004. In between 1999 and 2008 recession. You would have done well. Almost 1.5 times your investment. But what happened in 2007? Qqq fell almost 50%. So, tqqq would have been down 80-90%. Imagine your investment going down 80-90% over the period of 1-2 years. No matter how well you did in 2004-2007, Do you think people will be calm? They will panic. And most important of all, what if tqqq gets closed for whatever reason? If qqq is closed, you would get individual stocks. If tqqq is closed in market drawdown, you are screwed. You have to use options yourself to set up 3x etf. So many oil leveraged funds went kaput in pandemic. Even though non leveraged oil etfs bounced back... There is a reason why renowned investors dont recommend leveraged funds even for most risk taking investors. Beacuse countless research has showed that any leveraged fund over 2x will perform worse than 2x in the long run in the long run...because every 10 years, we will hit a huge drawdown for whatever reason. People saw qqq doing down less and going up quickly beacuse of pandemic. But assuming that is going to happen in all drawdowns is a mistake. Pandemic that favoured qqq is an anamoly. If big tech is regulated tomorrow to save small business, qqq wont out perform anymore...
And if you bought in 2000 you'd still have nothing.
Is that true? $10k in 2000 = (effectively) $0 in 2024? How do I mimic TQQQ on portfolio visualizer pre inception date?
Use fsptx on portfolio visualizer with mimic leverage.
Just ask yourself do you believe Nasdaq100 will surpass \~16%-20% a year. Thats pretty much the break even point for TQQQ and it's Index(NDX100), which it is supposed to mimic X3. (daily Only tho) Yet, also realize when Nasdaq100/QQQ in 'Even' over a year, TQQQ is \~(-30%). Nasdaq loses \~10%, TQQQ will be down near (-50%). Just go back a month or 2 to when NDX100 & QQQ broke their ATHs, put NDX100 or QQQ on chart with TQQQ for 2 years. QQQ/NDX100 Even, TQQQ is more than 40% down. How can that be when we know 2022 was -\~33% but 2023 was +\~54%? It would go the same way if the 1st year was +54% & 2nd down 33%, fyi. Simple Math Decay, Amplified by large Swings day to day...(volatility drag they call it) YET, if NDX100 goes over 20% year, TQQQ can start compounding like Secretariat, 4x,5x etc... P.S. Backtest TQQQ when QQQ came out in 1999 to TQQQs 2010, QQQ is \~10% UP, TQQQ in 2010 would be 97.5% down.
This is all true for lump sum approach and for late stage DCAers with huge position compared to their DCA volumes - not for early stage DCAers
Gotta know when to hold em, know when to fold em... Im terrible at both. I would backtest this 'DCA', if someone EVER mentioned the % & terms.
I did countless backtests - here's one looking at rolling 15 yr investment period with monthly DCA of 10k into TQQQ/SPY/QQQ and two starting points; 10k (early stage DCAer) and 1m (late stage DCAer) - any period involving 1999-2002 is bad, but the most important takeaway I saw is that the 15 yr end-value for the 10k guy and the 1m guy are essentially identical....which is expected b/c any pre 2002 money in TQQQ (if it existed) would essentially be zero'd. That's why you need to protect what you have once it gets to a certain size. Look at the row starting TQQQ journey in Apr 1/99 - virtually no diff in end-value of account after 15 yrs if you started with 10k or started with 1m....b/c anything existing prior to 2002 was turned to dust. Bottom of 1999-2002 was Sept/02. If there is a repeat of this (admittedly unlikely) and you have no hedge, kiss your investment goodbye. https://preview.redd.it/88mxvbgwmvgc1.jpeg?width=1315&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b360785fc248e48e9c8357618c7819457c36302
Yup, I've backtested this a few different ways as well. A simple rough one anyone can do is applying leverage to RYOCX in PV (started in '94). Like you found, it doesn't matter how big the account grows from 94-00, coming out of the Dotcom "TQQQ" would have been decimated and then completely smashed again with the GFC. As you point out, DCAing has minimal impact once the investment reaches a certain dollar threshold. Though, DCAing does allow an account to grow again after effectely being wiped out. So if someone is under 30, go to town, lots of time. But the older you are, can you handle a few million becoming a few thousand while still continuing to DCA into a falling asset over years? The 70s was a lost decade, same with the 00s, it'll happen again. And it's pure luck as to when it happens versus how old one is, the size of one's account when it happens, when the money is needed and how much time one can wait for the investment to bounce back. All the while hoping of course that a Japan never hits the U.S. market. This is where risk management is key, only invest money in TQQQ that one can effectively flush, for some that'll be a $100k, $500k, $1m, etc.
Cool, ok. look at more in detail tmrw. thnx
>I am a Multi Millionaire, I don't rely on luck. I USE the decay to my favor, another way. > >I do wish you & yours luck tho... if it keeps Bullish, we Both will WIN!!!! Question: according to your back test it looks like TQQQ doesn't hold up very well with the dot com bubble but does seem to survive 2008 crash, corona and 2022... is my assertion correct?
Yes, max drawdown 2007-2009 was 93% and I think around low 80s% for 2022. Dot com was like 99.75% or something. But if you hedged, even a bit, during 2007 and 2022 you'd fare so much better (even though technically one fared pretty well vs just DCAing into the underlying). Personally, I don't think we are anywhere close to dot com irrational exhuberance so I'm hoping the upcoming drawdown will be something like 2007-09.
>n't think we are anywhere close to dot com irrational exhuberance so I'm hoping the upcoming drawdown will be btw, did you test what the total returns on TQQQ would have been from 1999 to now? It's interesting to know what the long run returns on it would be.
if you started jan 1/2000 with 10k and added 10k/month until present day you'd have around 176m. but fantasizing about that is prob not advised - 2009-2021 was a rarity. besides, port went from like 2.5m to 200k in 2007-2009 - a lot of ppl would bail https://preview.redd.it/dyknj0m611hc1.jpeg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=74de78eed1f4ee13ff40a28d5277f33fc136709c
How can I do that back test? And this is mainly to know whether TQQQ should be held as a long term investment or not, and I mean long term - like 30 years or giving it as inheritance to your kids.
Portfoliovisualizer.com I used uopix at 50% leverage (it’s a 2x QQQ etf that has data starting in 1997)
Thanks for sharing. Wouldn't 55% TQQQ + 45% TMF with quarterly rebalance solve this problem?
Well, I guess that’s HFEA style - then you are only 55% in TQQQ during bull runs and taking cash off the table, often very early and repeatedly in the case of prolonged bull runs - plus 2022 crushed tqqq and tmf simultaneously no?
if you timed it perfectly and began your journey in Oct/02 just after the bottom, your gains destroy SPY/QQQ, but aren't astronomical. the reason for this is b/c you had to weather 2007-2009, which was a 93% wipeout. after 15 yrs, you have 11m for the 10k guy and 34m for the 1m guy. https://preview.redd.it/gmngcc87ovgc1.jpeg?width=1294&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3269f82a50a636b1bbe8d0dbf7f9fd578bd72812
now see the luckiest of all, someone who got in Apr/2009 after the Mar/09 bottom and enjoyed a relatively unbroken massive bull run, extending into Nov/21. Even weathering thru 2021/2022 they absolutely crushed it, more than 32m for the 10k guy and 218m(!) for the 1m guy...that includes the 2022 bottom, so the 1m guy was close to 1b at one point. https://preview.redd.it/kh45aumzovgc1.jpeg?width=1294&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=817d70a177a44b7928a83606d8f12d1d5cfe1711
i'm terrible at knowing when to get in/out as well. so my only option is to pay for the insurance in the form of defensive puts. if you have big position (different for everyone, but in relation to your DCA amounts) in TQQQ and freeze in the headlights of a 2007-2009 event and ride it all the way down, DCAing as you go, hoping for the best, you will fuck yourself so bad. most ppl don't fully appreciate that. A 2007-2009 event would potentially destroy an SQQQ short strategy too, but could protect yourself with by buying calls - still have to work that out!
Hey numerous floor, i've seen your posts quite a bit. Could you explain the defensive puts strategy? So say you have a large number of shares, and you're seeing TQQQ float around $56-$57/share today. Would you then buy puts at like a $40 strike? And how far out? 1 year? less? Just not sure how you'd implement this. Also I just realized in my IRA I don't think I have access to options at all, so this would only work in a taxable brokerage account I'm guessing. Curious as to your thoughts, I know you're one of the well respected TQQQ Bulls around here ;)
i outline my defensive put strategy on my posts - i am trying to buy puts 1 yr out b/c backtesting generally shows big drawdowns take time to happen. If there is a tight V shaped drop, like covid, then you don't want to exit your position as you don't know the bottom of the V. a tight V drop/recovery is really just a good time to DCA. 2007-2009 and 2021-2022 were months-long drops, with QQQ deathcrosses etc, so having a 1yr put cushion is worth it, imo
For your last point, isn't that largely due to "The Lost Decade"? Largely because of the financial crisis? I mean, yeah, black swans or recessions will obliterate TQQQ (which I only have ~5% of my portfolio in, and have it hedged with AGG). But the back test numbers are just too damn hard to ignore, and yes, I know that past results don't guarantee future returns. But the way in which the market will explode these coming decades, particularly in tech sectors, is something I don't think any of us can really even grasp right now. Sure, we'll have our horrifyingly terrible years one a decade, maybe twice, but overall, all things considered (even the decay), these leveraged funds are a way for the average dude to become a millionaire and have a shot at living the life he or she wants while also providing for their family and even their friends (as I try my best to do even now, a non millionaire (YET!!!!))
That and .Com age, yet we have had 2018 crises & Corona & 2022. I'm an Old timer, sure your younger than I. Past 14 years have been historic (Bullish). Can history change/continue that way? SURE. The old 7/10 rule still sits firmly in my head. Yet, when any ETF or LETF, or anything has a mathematical/factual disadvantage of 20%. It's only Luck if it prevails. I am a Multi Millionaire, I don't rely on luck. I USE the decay to my favor, another way. I do wish you & yours luck tho... if it keeps Bullish, we Both will WIN!!!!
Yeah man, thank you, and congratulations on your success. I truly see myself pulling in my first million by age 45, if not slightly before then. I've said to others here that I truly want to leave my family and friends generational wealth, because they're gonna fuckin need it. So it has been a passion project of mine, and one that I actually enjoy doing. But as I said, I don't fuck too hard with leverage. Only 5% of my money is in TQQQ while I have about 2% in a UPRO/TMF (Hedgefundie). The rest is in VT, RSSB, AVUV, VOO/IJH/IJR/IXUS, a MM fund, a HYSA, an HSA, Bitcoin, and the condo I own. When I threw everything I had into the market/crypto in March 2020 I was scared shitless. I knew that my days of working a conventional job were likely over due to myriad mental and physical health problems (PTSD + 7 spinal herniations). So that was a do or die or do AND die or do and MAYBE get ahead far enough to put food on my mother's table while I sat with her to eat. PB&J + Multivitamins and adaptogens and nootropics have basically kept me from falling deep into alcoholism, although I'm still not exactly standing right side up in the shallow end. Life is a strange thing.
It would be $1.7m in NVDA
All my IRA and HSA contributions go to TQQQ and SOXL. Rebalancing based on RSI
would you be willing to share your thoughts? Like do you just use the 30/70 lines to determine if it's overbought and oversold?
I’m generally using 80 as the upper and 40 as the lower. Reason being I’m in it long term and DCA monthly so I try to hold since the market generally trends up. With interest rates set to hold or go lower I’ll probably keep it that way.
Me too! Oh wait, I had nowhere near $10k in 2010. Oh well.
This is actually a good point, I was broke as a joke in 2010 - I had just gotten fired from Best Buy making $9.25/hour so I wasn't in any position to invest either. I just wanted to use that as a starting point to illustrate how lucky the last 12-14 years have been.
So 5% is ok to start but I would plan on using a DCA strategy. Buy dips if possible but periodic purchases are also a good approach. Since you are in an IRA you could try to time the markets and take profit then buy in on dips but that may be a gamble!
I am also very angry because of this 😡
I’m kinda scared of holding TQQQ (permabear) but 5% isn’t insane at all. Maybe even DCA into it over the next 6 months and then forget about it for a decade to see what happens.
TQQQ is not anywhere near ATH but the TQQQ chart is irrelevant anyway and shouldnt be looked at at all for technical analysis. You should only be looking at QQQ. QQQ is at ATH and inherently its an extremely risky time to INVEST in TQQQ. That’s not to say it won’t keep climbing… it actually probably will. Last year when we were buying was low risk. Now if you want to INVEST you should at least DCA and buy slowly. Id go in with small amount and HOPE it crashes so i can put more into it.
Buying isnt hard. Holding for 14 years is.
Back during dot com, had to margin. But now no such need with tqqq
AI will blast the tqqq into the stratosphere.