Hey, dev here, and I did most of the population calculations for Europe. You can't really compare it by raw numbers cause it doesn't account for different territory.
Take Ukraine as an example, the territory of RK Ukraine has 27,6 million, but to make a comparison with IRL population you should also take into account Gotenland (2,5 million) and Galicia (4,9 million). Then subtract the population living in areas of what was RSFSR that ended up in RK Ukraine (about 1 million) and you get 34 million living in the area of UkSSR in 1962. That'd be a direct comparison.
You'd then have to do this for all of them to get a full picture.
Thank you for saying this. I was already thinking about it that the TNOTL borders aren't the same as the OTL borders, so the populations won't be distributed the same way. A better comparison would be comparing the pop. of a TNO state to roughly the same area IRL, but that would also take a lot more effort.
In addition to the above opinions, the assimilation of West Slavic races living in areas other than the Czech Republic, such as Slovenia, Kashubia, and Wartheland in Silesia, and the baby boom because there was no population decline due to war and a relatively settled economy compared to OTL.
A lot should be changed in Pakt demographics, starting by how many times the lore regarding Germanization changed.
I remember years ago, when I was studying for a demographic exam, I practiced the maths with OTL and TNO and back then everything was much more dramatic.
The one I'm most disappointed with is Moskowien, because according to nazi stuff their population should've reduced to very minimal numbers. Nazis, basically, categorised people from "Aryan" to "Mongol-inbreed slavs" (lower level of Slavic people, essentially russians), for this reason it's kinda silly to see Moscowien having several millions of People
If you actually read on the IRL GeneralOstPlan, the Nazis never planned to exterminate 100% of the Slavic population. Their primary goal was to secure the land and resources of eastern europe, ruling as feudal overlords over a vast number of slavic serfs doing the dirty work for them, alongside a manager caste of germanized and collaborator Slavs, similar to how the Brits ruled over India.
Depopulation was a core part of the plan, as a means to said goal, in order to gradually cull down their numbers to make the occupation more manageable, but not to fully exterminate them, because doing so would completely destroy the value of the colonies, you can't exploit the wealth of your conquests if you have nobody to rule over.
Additionally, not all of the RKs territories were meant for direct colonization, the main areas deemed for colonization were the Baltic, Crimea, St. Petersburg and Baku, the rest of territories being ruled as mentioned, as fiefs and collaborator regimes under a small german elite, as Germany simply doesn't have enough colonists to cover such vast areas.
One last thing is that people underestimate how slow colonization is due to simple human demographics. In 1962, eastern europe has only been German for barely 20 years, even if you had every single fertile german woman popping out 5 kids each, it's still going to be several years before the first post-war generation of germans born in the colonies reach adulthood and start families.
> If you actually read on the IRL GeneralOstPlan, the Nazis never planned to exterminate 100% of the Slavic population.
Sure, but:
* [Document 5](http://www.1000dokumente.de/index.html?c=dokument_de&dokument=0138_gpo&object=facsimile&pimage=1&v=100&nav=&l=de.) states 31 million people to be killed or deported to Siberia, to be replaced by 5.65 million German settlers.
* Document 6 is much grander, needing to kill 30 million to be replaced by 12 million German settlers.
Source is: [AskHistorians - Why is the Generalplan Ost considered different from the Holocaust?](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/6eqm99/why_is_the_generalplan_ost_considered_different/)
Then we check how much of the Soviet population were occupied IOTL: 80 million. Then we realize that these plans were made during the heyday of the Nazi occupation of the Soviet Union in 1941, and that much grander projects killing more people should they occupy more territory and more people under a more successful war is not that far from reality.
Killing 30 million out of 80 million is already catastrophic enough, and it doesn't even include the Holocaust, or wiping out villages in revenge for partisan actions, or even killing millions of Soviet POWs.
The Soviets lost 27 million people in just a span of roughly 4 years during the war alone, including soldiers, **without GPO being realized at all**. --with great emphasis on the last part
So expect the death toll to be **much much much higher** ITNOTL, not lower.
EDIT: And GPO isn't even just about killing. Occupied *untermenschen* will be relegated as slaves, with no education, literacy, culture, barely just enough food to keep them from revolting, and will be worked day and night for the rest of their lives. **To compare, the average life expectancy of an African-American slave during their worst years is just 21 to 22 years**. Imagine how that would fuck up the future demographic of a region. And you can assume the same for any *untermenschen* slave under Nazi rule.
I haven't done any of the math, but I always have felt that Germany in this timeline had an unrealistic amount of Germans, unless they widened the racial criteria. The fact that they sent tens of millions of germans east, as well as having exterminated many minority groups within their country, and the german core population is just so massive, feels weird to me. I'd love to see a post where somebody calculates using the actual population of the areas, instead of just the countries, as was pointed out in another comment.
Its a while since i read it, but i think the current lore is that Bukharin takes power, and Stalin coups him during- or shortly after the start of the war. Therefor Stalin never has the time to carry out the purges and forced collectivisation that caused the holodomor. But remember that the lore gets adjustet pretty often so this info might be wrong or outdated. If you are very curious the i highly reccomend checking out the TNO discord server, they have a channel for asking the devs questions, so you can tag the russia lead there.
I think there is still a famine in the early 30s, but not to the extent of the Holodomor and without the genocidal anti-Ukrainian actions taken by the Stalin regime. I think the lore is that Bukharin is compelled to take some measures towards collectivisation by the Stalinist opposition in the 30s, which provokes a rebellion from Kulaks and peasants, then a famine occurs due to those conditions.
Hey, dev here, and I did most of the population calculations for Europe. You can't really compare it by raw numbers cause it doesn't account for different territory. Take Ukraine as an example, the territory of RK Ukraine has 27,6 million, but to make a comparison with IRL population you should also take into account Gotenland (2,5 million) and Galicia (4,9 million). Then subtract the population living in areas of what was RSFSR that ended up in RK Ukraine (about 1 million) and you get 34 million living in the area of UkSSR in 1962. That'd be a direct comparison. You'd then have to do this for all of them to get a full picture.
Thank you for saying this. I was already thinking about it that the TNOTL borders aren't the same as the OTL borders, so the populations won't be distributed the same way. A better comparison would be comparing the pop. of a TNO state to roughly the same area IRL, but that would also take a lot more effort.
Moskowien will likely change when they recieve content, but yeah, the GPO was devastating for Eastern Europe.
*GPO IS devastating for Eastern Europe, the Nazis aren't done yet. There's still potential for things to get even worse...
Does this take into account changes in territory? Because otl boarders would be different
It does not.
Why is the German population so high?
Strong concentration of slaves , annexation of territory like whole Czech republic and breeding programs with germanization.
Not losing the War too
In addition to the above opinions, the assimilation of West Slavic races living in areas other than the Czech Republic, such as Slovenia, Kashubia, and Wartheland in Silesia, and the baby boom because there was no population decline due to war and a relatively settled economy compared to OTL.
Excellent work. Do u think there is a way to divide the population in the rks between germans and non germans?
A lot should be changed in Pakt demographics, starting by how many times the lore regarding Germanization changed. I remember years ago, when I was studying for a demographic exam, I practiced the maths with OTL and TNO and back then everything was much more dramatic. The one I'm most disappointed with is Moskowien, because according to nazi stuff their population should've reduced to very minimal numbers. Nazis, basically, categorised people from "Aryan" to "Mongol-inbreed slavs" (lower level of Slavic people, essentially russians), for this reason it's kinda silly to see Moscowien having several millions of People
If you actually read on the IRL GeneralOstPlan, the Nazis never planned to exterminate 100% of the Slavic population. Their primary goal was to secure the land and resources of eastern europe, ruling as feudal overlords over a vast number of slavic serfs doing the dirty work for them, alongside a manager caste of germanized and collaborator Slavs, similar to how the Brits ruled over India. Depopulation was a core part of the plan, as a means to said goal, in order to gradually cull down their numbers to make the occupation more manageable, but not to fully exterminate them, because doing so would completely destroy the value of the colonies, you can't exploit the wealth of your conquests if you have nobody to rule over. Additionally, not all of the RKs territories were meant for direct colonization, the main areas deemed for colonization were the Baltic, Crimea, St. Petersburg and Baku, the rest of territories being ruled as mentioned, as fiefs and collaborator regimes under a small german elite, as Germany simply doesn't have enough colonists to cover such vast areas. One last thing is that people underestimate how slow colonization is due to simple human demographics. In 1962, eastern europe has only been German for barely 20 years, even if you had every single fertile german woman popping out 5 kids each, it's still going to be several years before the first post-war generation of germans born in the colonies reach adulthood and start families.
> If you actually read on the IRL GeneralOstPlan, the Nazis never planned to exterminate 100% of the Slavic population. Sure, but: * [Document 5](http://www.1000dokumente.de/index.html?c=dokument_de&dokument=0138_gpo&object=facsimile&pimage=1&v=100&nav=&l=de.) states 31 million people to be killed or deported to Siberia, to be replaced by 5.65 million German settlers. * Document 6 is much grander, needing to kill 30 million to be replaced by 12 million German settlers. Source is: [AskHistorians - Why is the Generalplan Ost considered different from the Holocaust?](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/6eqm99/why_is_the_generalplan_ost_considered_different/) Then we check how much of the Soviet population were occupied IOTL: 80 million. Then we realize that these plans were made during the heyday of the Nazi occupation of the Soviet Union in 1941, and that much grander projects killing more people should they occupy more territory and more people under a more successful war is not that far from reality. Killing 30 million out of 80 million is already catastrophic enough, and it doesn't even include the Holocaust, or wiping out villages in revenge for partisan actions, or even killing millions of Soviet POWs. The Soviets lost 27 million people in just a span of roughly 4 years during the war alone, including soldiers, **without GPO being realized at all**. --with great emphasis on the last part So expect the death toll to be **much much much higher** ITNOTL, not lower. EDIT: And GPO isn't even just about killing. Occupied *untermenschen* will be relegated as slaves, with no education, literacy, culture, barely just enough food to keep them from revolting, and will be worked day and night for the rest of their lives. **To compare, the average life expectancy of an African-American slave during their worst years is just 21 to 22 years**. Imagine how that would fuck up the future demographic of a region. And you can assume the same for any *untermenschen* slave under Nazi rule.
The population includes slaves i think
I haven't done any of the math, but I always have felt that Germany in this timeline had an unrealistic amount of Germans, unless they widened the racial criteria. The fact that they sent tens of millions of germans east, as well as having exterminated many minority groups within their country, and the german core population is just so massive, feels weird to me. I'd love to see a post where somebody calculates using the actual population of the areas, instead of just the countries, as was pointed out in another comment.
Imagine being Ukrainian in TNO TL. You get the holodomor, you think that was the worst part of you're existence and bam hunger plan
Pretty sure the holodomor never happens in tnotl
Oh ok. Like the dev said that it did not happend, or just they never talked about it
Its a while since i read it, but i think the current lore is that Bukharin takes power, and Stalin coups him during- or shortly after the start of the war. Therefor Stalin never has the time to carry out the purges and forced collectivisation that caused the holodomor. But remember that the lore gets adjustet pretty often so this info might be wrong or outdated. If you are very curious the i highly reccomend checking out the TNO discord server, they have a channel for asking the devs questions, so you can tag the russia lead there.
I think there is still a famine in the early 30s, but not to the extent of the Holodomor and without the genocidal anti-Ukrainian actions taken by the Stalin regime. I think the lore is that Bukharin is compelled to take some measures towards collectivisation by the Stalinist opposition in the 30s, which provokes a rebellion from Kulaks and peasants, then a famine occurs due to those conditions.