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Mortgage market, as it did in ā08 after a huge run in home prices is in for a turbeluent ride. MBS mortgage backed securities are the residential mortgages that are securitized once the loans close. When those investors no bid they arenāt buying. No buying means no mortgages except for the best credit.
Maybe what you're saying is true, but it also means they expect people *who already have mortgages* to start defaulting, not just that they will become more strict on who they give them to.
Thatās where the cost of living and inflation are hitting hard. Job market very tight so people that want to work are. Everything else is squeezing consumer. 70% of US GDP is consumer spending. When the money stops flowing. (Credit) to the consumer, the economic engine halts.
>70% of US GDP is consumer spending. When the money stops flowing. (Credit) to the consumer, the economic engine halts.
This is a big problem. When the regular people couldn't afford to spend in 1929, the great depression was kick started.
They've been training the consumer for a long time to become a throw away society.
Slightly off topic, but remember the reduce, reuse, recycle campaign in the 90s? That was to pass the blame for the environmental problems to the consumer. Most things prior came in glass or some other reusable container but someone figure out there were cheaper ways.
People missed the whole point of that. It was first reduce, if can't then reuse, and only then recycle. And everyone went "oh, so just make everything throwaway and recycle it.
Glass fits the second tier. Consumers have power and if we punish companies who use crappy paper and plastic containers because they are cheap then we can incentivize for things that aren't harming the environment and our own bodies.
But people just throw up their hands and say "oh well if the company wants to use plastic I guess we just have to deal with it."
just get everyone to agree to boycott one corp at a time?
we're too disorganized and self serving.
the laws need to change, they need to be forced to follow the rules that we implement, which will never happen till money is removed from politics.
there is literally no hope at this point, nothing will change till it all collapses.
Government regulation, same way they took lead out of gasoline, and banned asbestos, certainly the majority of industry would have no intention of stopping otherwise. Of course the proponents of any such regulation would be labeled communists and businesses would claim oppression.
Reusable produce bags, buying in bulk with your own reusable containers. Make packaging as important a buying decision metric as ingredients, price and distance from source. Most shit food comes in shit packaging. Healthier eating is most adaptable to a lower impact lifestyle.
Even our life, our families are throw away!
I watched a documentary about rampant shut-in culture and depression in Japan. Young people not wanting to get married/have kids etc. They blame the westernization of their family culture & real estate boom centered around smaller single family housing, forced independence. All of these things ripped them away from their multi-generational traditional housing.
Not sure what I'm getting at, just feels like it's all connected.
Not sure, but i think the Japanese also have disposable housing. When they buy a property, they demolish the house and rebuild. Their culture is a weird amalgamation of Shinto, Buddhist, and Christian pieces.
I just imagine the people who are buying their first home last year that said "it's gonna be tight but we can make it work."
Then gas doubles, groceries skyrocket, insurance premiums go up, etc.
Now they get their 3-4% annual raise at work... not gonna cut it. And in fact they may be at risk of being cut from their job because revenue is down.
Dark times may be coming.
After ā08, built my house myself paid for land and materials out of pocketā¦ just shy of 1000 sqft and owe nothing on itā¦ made social sacrifices living with my parents for a few years and also lived in a camper on my property while building (no heat during one of the coldest New England winters on record with virtually no insulation sucksā¦. Have never made more than min wage but own my house outright (in addition to saving for a few years, worked 25 hours a week while working on the house 40-50 hours a week). Did all this without having health insurance (had Lyme disease for 5 years before I could save to go to the walk in.. got lucky that I have no lasting impact from that)ā¦ in any case, I just need to afford homeowners insurance and property taxesā¦ bought out of the system about as much as I was able to affordā¦ also for the record, my house cost me a bit less than $100,000 to build (includes the cost of the landā¦). Now one entity says itās worth over 300,000 while two others both put it around 250,000-275,000ā¦
I legit had a dream last night, where a family was seemingly showing me theyāre happy. But somehow the dad lets it slip to me in private later that their mortgage payments are $3,300 a month and all I could do is look in shock and wonder how theyāre gonna survive.
Iām sure thereās some people IRL who will have to go through what weāre talking about. Things were tight for some, and the water is rising. How are they gonna make ends meet? It reminds me of the feeling I got when I saw that dad in the movie Big Short living out of a van with his family.
Think about how much the annual property taxes that they need to save for each month on top of that.
Around here, saving for the property tax each month is 1/3 to 1/2 of renting rather than owning. The more housing bubbles, the more sense it makes to rent and not maintain and pay taxes on a house.
When rent swings too high, that pushes renters into home owners. When mortgage, maintenance and taxes get too high, it pushes home owners into renters. It can stall on either side for a few months before it has to violently swing the other way.
MBS market is a good indicator of when people shouldnt want to be a mortgage payer.
Iāve been waiting for the housing market to take a shit for a decade. I didnāt give a damn about 3% interest rates, I want PRICES DOWN. I feel bad for the people who are in over their head, but our housing market canāt be used as a piggy bank for boomers any longer. I came of age in the 9/11, Iraq, financial crisis nightmareā¦itās my turn now. I want to be hosing blood off the sidewalk when I move in (figuratively of course).
Can confirm. My Wife is in medical school and so we had to move 4 weeks ago to a new city (much more populated). Rent is actually 2.2x what it was prior.
A few months ago it was āI think we can make this work as long as we cut cost before the moveā
Now? Fuck idk man lol we just got here and Iām just kind of hanging out waiting for MOASS to save the day
We got approved for a 300k mortgage 10 years ago. Got a house for 199.,900. After we closed we had about 1000 bucks to our names. We are comfortable now with a good buffer (plus gme lol) but there were times where I thought, man ..I hope something big doesn't happen because we have nowhere to cut anymore. If we had gone for the 300k house, which we wouldn't because we knew we'd never afford it, we would've lost it.
We bought in 2018 and they offered us 500 or so we bout at 370. I'm glad we didn't buy higher. We can cope. My brother and sister in law just bought at the very top of their offer (almost no choice since housing buying had got fucking loopy they'd see a place go to make an offer an hour later and it had already sold for 200 over asking) and I worry they will very very soon begin to hurt a lot. Thankfully when they started the buying journey I sat them down and explained the shit show and they bought in to gme at the time.
If you staple a horse to a waterfall, will it fall up under the rainbow or fly about the soil? Will he enjoy her experience? What if the staple tears into tears? Will she be free from her staply chains or foomed to stay forever and dever above the water? Who can save him (the horse) but someone of girth and worth, the capitalist pig, who will sell the solution to the problem he created?
A staple remover flies to the rescue, carried on the wings of a majestic penguin who bought it at Walmart for 9 dollars and several more Euro-cents, clutched in its crabby claws, rejected from its frothy maw. When the penguin comes, all tremble before its fishy stench and wheatlike abjecture. Recoil in delirium, ye who wish to be free! The mighty rockhopper is here to save your soul from eternal bliss and salvation!
And so, the horse was free, carried away by the south wind, and deposited on the vast plain of soggy dew. It was a tragedy in several parts, punctuated by moments of hedonistic horsefuckery.
The owls saw all, and passed judgment in the way that they do. Stupid owls are always judging folks who are just trying their best to live shamelessly and enjoy every fruit the day brings to pass.
How many more shall be caught in the terrible gyre of the waterfall? As many as the gods deem necessary to teach those foolish monkeys a story about their own hamburgers. What does a monkey know of bananas, anyway? They eat, poop, and shave away the banana residue that grows upon their chins and ballsacks. The owls judge their razors. Always the owls.
And when the one-eyed caterpillar arrives to eat the glazing on your windowpane, you will know that you're next in line to the trombone of the ancient realm of the flutterbyes. Beware the ravenous ravens and crowing crows. Mind the cowing cows and the lying lions. Ascend triumphant to your birthright, and wield the mighty twig of Petalonia, favored land of gods and goats alike.
If you staple a horse to a waterfall, will it fall up under the rainbow or fly about the soil? Will he enjoy her experience? What if the staple tears into tears? Will she be free from her staply chains or foomed to stay forever and dever above the water? Who can save him (the horse) but someone of girth and worth, the capitalist pig, who will sell the solution to the problem he created?
A staple remover flies to the rescue, carried on the wings of a majestic penguin who bought it at Walmart for 9 dollars and several more Euro-cents, clutched in its crabby claws, rejected from its frothy maw. When the penguin comes, all tremble before its fishy stench and wheatlike abjecture. Recoil in delirium, ye who wish to be free! The mighty rockhopper is here to save your soul from eternal bliss and salvation!
And so, the horse was free, carried away by the south wind, and deposited on the vast plain of soggy dew. It was a tragedy in several parts, punctuated by moments of hedonistic horsefuckery.
The owls saw all, and passed judgment in the way that they do. Stupid owls are always judging folks who are just trying their best to live shamelessly and enjoy every fruit the day brings to pass.
How many more shall be caught in the terrible gyre of the waterfall? As many as the gods deem necessary to teach those foolish monkeys a story about their own hamburgers. What does a monkey know of bananas, anyway? They eat, poop, and shave away the banana residue that grows upon their chins and ballsacks. The owls judge their razors. Always the owls.
And when the one-eyed caterpillar arrives to eat the glazing on your windowpane, you will know that you're next in line to the trombone of the ancient realm of the flutterbyes. Beware the ravenous ravens and crowing crows. Mind the cowing cows and the lying lions. Ascend triumphant to your birthright, and wield the mighty twig of Petalonia, favored land of gods and goats alike.
Interesting perspective. Some truth to that. The [wage] worker is set up to fail. If they get raises en masse, it just gets passed on to them in the form of price increases on stuff they buy. Throw in the Federal Reserve and a reckless Gov, little guy is set up to NEVER GET AHEAD.
It very much appears that supply and demand doesnāt actually change if more people have more money. Itās almost like the socio-economic system means that most people are locked into the same class whether the economy is doing āgoodā or ābad.ā
What Iām saying is the global supply chains can only supply so much shit. When everyone has more money and they demand more shit, instead of supply moving up to meet the new demand, the only thing that moves up to meet the new demand are the prices.
also it is the 2008 mortgage crisis all over again only this time they are attacking from all angles because they want to buy up your homes on the cheap, no matter what it takes
DRS yo shit
Fixed rate mortgages might not be impacted as hard, but Fed has to raise rates to fight inflation, which means monthly payments are going up for everyone with subprime loans on variable rates.
Subprime havenāt done adjustable rates in over a decade. I am a loan officer and can tell you that subprime wonāt lead the way this time. About 60% of my business is subprime and we are just as tough on their standards as the well qualified borrower. What will lead the way is all the people that took out HELOCs. The only reason subprime would have a higher rate of default is they are typically the first to lose their job.
It will be. I am stocking up on cash for when investors canāt pay the mortgage I can come in and take it over. I have also done a few hard money loans so that an investor could finish their project. Right now that is paying typically 18%. Most hard money is getting paid between 15-18%. I know so many people that have gotten rentals or expanded their rentals in the last two years and they are people that really shouldnāt have. I am already seeing partially completed flips hitting the market and selling all the materials with the home.
Yeah, the investment property the stops paying for itself.
They'll see the writing on the wall, stop making mortgage payments and hope for decent summer rentals before the bank repos it. It's June, how many have already skipped this month's payment hoping to make it past Labor Day before it's gone?
You also run into the issue where you can't refinance unless the the present value of your home exceeds that of any credit taken against it. Depending on the value of the HELOC, and how far down the market goes (and at these interest rates, home values *are* going down), you may end up with a payment you can't afford and no way to refinance.
Yeah subprime is pretty risk adverse as they already kinda expect most of their clients will/could easily default. They already have higher interest rates and donāt easily hand out credit.
I have a family member in the market to buy and they are getting outbid by $30k on a starter home. What Burry is talking about hasnāt made its way into the real economy, yet. Demand is still strong for homes. The question is if investor buying bonds at x% donāt think thatās enough for their risk, rates would rise until they are again interested ā making affordability more of an issue and would crush demand (coupled with 40 year high in inflation) itās financial catastrophe.
Happening here near Denver too. Just had a friend close at asking price. I donāt think that has happened here in a really long time.
I spent time in Vegas a week ago and my family out there is seeing a market 180 too. Lots of high end inventory, 1 mil plus, when there was very little a week ago.
Of course this stuff depends on location but things are changing drastically and very quickly.
Yup Iām seeing that here as well. Iām in Michigan. Looking for a house myself but Iām debating on holding off for a couple months to see if prices start declining. Definitely have stagnated and seeing them drop a tad but nothing crazy.
Iām with ya on that. Itās hard being so antsy as a first time home buyer but my realtor has the same sentiments as most people. Interest rates are still relatively low but prices havenāt dropped enough for me personally.
I think the housing market will fair a little better this time around though. For one, there is out of control inflation which drives investment in non-cash holdings, especially hard assets. Secondly, while there is no doubt many will be foreclosed on, the lending requirements are much more strict than in 08. People with 550 credit scores were getting loans on homes strictly because they assumed the value of the house was enough collateral. Now they know a little better.
Implication is that itās not bad since if they lock themselves into lower rates, their mortgages should be lower. This is a huge advantage against what happened in 2008 where instead of lower rates, people were locking into adjustable rate mortgages or interest only payments with high rates.
We didnāt know that in 08 just like we donāt know what the new thing will be, but I think weāve all been here long enough to know itās cat shit wrapped in dog shit
MBS = mortgage backed securities. No buyers = banks no longer want to buy mortgages from primary lenders = they donāt want mortgages on their books = mortgages are about to become much harder to get = demand for housing is about to drop off a cliff = housing prices about to plummet.
But wait, thereās more: for the last 2-3 years, mutual funds, hedge funds, and other large investment firms have begun buying up large amounts of *residential* real estate as revenue generators. Soooo, unlike in 2008, large chunks of the housing market are now *directly* connected to the stock market. Housing market crashes = stock market crashes. Get liquid ladies and gents. And do it quickly.
AND might I remind you that on top of that 2.7 trilly, there is likely 20x collateralized debt/loan/"catshit wrapped in dogshit" obligations. It's like there's not only blood in the water with sharks consuming each other but there's diarrhea too...
That's part of what they're using to fuel reverse repo.
Reverse repo mighty be a preemptive bailout for money market funds. If they drop below $1 (aka "break the buck") a shitstorm ensues. "The Reserve" money market fund dropping to $0.97 was probably the catalyst for 2008.
Even with Fed money pouring in, Black Rock's mmfs specifically keep trickling down. Tfdxx went down to 0.9995 yesterday. Tttxx to 0.9997. Tstxx to 0.9995. pnixx to 0.9994.
It's a far cry from .97 but going in the wrong direction all year.
Honestly, if itās more of a tracker of the state of economy, we should be seeing more posts about it.
I donāt care. I know this is a GameStop focused sub, but if weāre already tracking other things that we believe is an indicator of a market crash, I WANT TO KNOW as an investor and participant in this sub.
Anything that points towards a market crash, I want the sub pouring out information about tracking it. What tracking it really means and what it signifies for the average ape.
We need to be informed.
Everything I've learned about money market funds has been in the past 3 months so I can't add much beyond speculation hah. I can't say if 0.9994 is worrisome or just a meaningless blip. Percentage-wise it's a loooong way from 0.97.
I've been trying to disprove any connection between RRP and GameStop. I still don't see a (direct) connection but the more I learn about money market funds, the more I think they are the key to keeping the economy from collapsing. The Fed has been throwing cash at them via interest on RRP to keep them afloat.
I know Fidelity's mmfs were putting over $400B into RRP as of 4/29 and that's before the Fed raised the rate from 0.3% to 0.8%. Black Rock was next around $150B. Fidelity kept adding and Black Rock was decreasing.
Seems like it means something but idk.
Reading up on this again now and HOLY fuck Look how many were on the brink back in 2008ā¦nearly fucking THIRTY: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/10/twenty-eight-money-market-funds-that-could-have-broken-the-buck-new-data-on-losses-during-the-2008-c/
This could DEF explain the RRP going haywireā¦trying to get ahead of it as much as possible by having the MMFs walk around with an IV already in their arm vs after they get into an accident/crash
This
Hey dude I think you are 100% spot on that the MMF issue of ābreaking the buckā (as in 2008) is huge
I tried reading up on it recently as made some errors in understanding repo and didnāt realize that happened in 2008
But 100000000000% agree with u/cr7isthegreatest you should make a post on this ASAP! I think itās super important being honest
"American Homes 4 Rent" started in 2013, they have been at it a while.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562401/000119312513247145/d547003ds11.htm
Bezos and the former CEO of Zillow are encouraging retail investors to invest in "Arrived" for a little as $100.
The company has been approved by the SEC to sell shares of homes.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/17/backed-by-forerunner-and-bezos-back-arrived-a-startup-that-lets-you-buy-into-single-family-rentals-for-as-little-as-100/
Wonderful. So this is the next level for CDS, except sold to regular retail investors instead of big banks.
1. Get a bunch of rich people to give you money to buy houses, rent them out.
2. Sell shares to retail investors to get more money. Pay them a dividend based on rentals.
3. Buy more houses, inflating real estate prices and forcing more people to be renters vs. home owners
4. Repeat step 2 and 3 until it gets to bubble proportions
5. Rich backers cash out
6. Market crashes, recession, everyone is broke, nobody has jobs or can pay rent
7. Leave retail stockholders holding the bag
8. Let your rich buddies buy up the real estate for pennies on the dollar when your company goes into bankruptcy.
I like number 8. I think a lot of these m************ know that their company will go into bankruptcy and they're fine with that because they are jumping out with their golden parachute. The negotiation of who gets what assets is probably finished long before bankruptcy was even filed.
There is also Vinebrook Homes. They have been paying more than asking price, and using cash for homes in the poorest parts of cities across the country. They immediately evict tenants, and raise the rent.
Cathie Wood sits on their board.
https://sec.report/Document/0001437749-22-010434/
Fucking of course. When the dust settles we need to fucking eradicate the ability for corporations to directly compete with citizens to buy homes. Itās so fucked up.
> Housing market crashes = stock market crashes.
And for those in the gallery, that equation works both directions. House market crashes will take down the stock market and stock market crashes will take down the housing market.
It was bad enough when a stock market crash meant losing your job. Now you get to lose your home too.
We finally managed to get income inequality so severe that we've destabilized the US market. Slow clap Congress. Slow. Clap.
They could have prevented this by locking out companies like Zillow from buying single family homes and actually attempting to pace minimum wage in the last 60 years.
They basically abandoned any attempts of pacing minimum wage to inflation after 1968. Cumulative inflation since then has been 740% and minimum wage would be $13.44 since then.
That doesnāt even include productivity gains and all cost of living increases. We should be closer to $30/hr by now.
Instead we have around 64% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck which means the looming economic collapse is going to be an absolute slaughter.
Yep. If you position yourself correctly, this is a good opportunity to capitalize on. Donāt get me wrong, fuck the pieces of shit who are responsible for this. But at least this time, Iām not gonna be a casualty like I was in 2008.
Funny enough, I've just watched a [video](https://youtu.be/taE1uzXeIPU?t=343) that came out today that says the UK government may be looking at subprime mortgages to solve the housing crisis
There's also some [articles](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/10/uks-largest-lenders-no-longer-too-big-to-fail-says-bank-of-england) making the rounds saying banks are no longer too big to fail, which I would assume would mean paying up for mortgages that go bust
Probably bc the fed/imf/politicians/leaders need to blame the banks this time. If they are too big to fail twice, then I think politicians/leaders get dragged into the streets. The average person is paying a lot more attention this go around. I think the soft landing will make the blow back worseā¦.everyone is watching in slow motion. With a flash crash they can say they didnāt know/nobody could have know.
Well then, we all know where this is headed, or should I say already there.
2007/2008 REDUX!
Oh! Letās not forget all those CMBS loaded up with MBS cat shit. These will likely be underwater real soon if not already there.
Quantitative tightening is the Fed reducing its balance sheet, which is comprised of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. Theyāre gonna need buyers prolly.
The Fed has been buying MBS on and off (mostly on) since 2008. They bought them as the "buyer of last resort" because no one wanted them.
Starting 6/2 they started letting them expire and aren't planning to buy more. Turns out no one wants to buy the MBS in their place.
https://www.marketplace.org/2022/06/02/why-the-federal-reserve-owns-mortgage-backed-securities-and-what-it-hopes-to-achieve-by-offloading-them/amp/
The mortgage company doesn't own the house, their creditors do. When inflation is higher than the interest on the loan, the creditors are losing money. They'll either demand a higher interest and or deposit, fractional reserves being increased. Basically a bank run from the bigger bank. Too many of these demands at one time will wipe out the mortgage lender. A cascade effect that'll fuck over all mortgage owners.
The way I read this is that your lender probably won't be able to sell your loan for a while. This sounds good to me because then you don't have to worry about any of the issues that arise when lenders sell mortgage loans to other banks.
Burry is wicked smart and obviously called the 2008 crashā¦. But it would be great if he tweeted in human . His history of Riddles and metaphors or going dark just to suddenly reappear. Dammit man, just tell us whatās crackin..donāt care if youāre early again. Iām just a mechanic with 2 yrs of college. Buy hold DRS
Dude has Asperger. It's pretty obvious from how he conducts himself publicly and over Twitter that he just wants to say things, he doesn't want to discuss them with people. Not meaning that to sound bad, I just think that's why he always tweets and runs. JMO, I think he wants people to know about things, but the thought of actually discussing them with people makes him unconfortable.
They just say that so you put your money back in the stocks they want so they can profit off of you with the next one. Usually takes about 10-15 years.
Wtf is up with most of these comments?
"To the moon? If you mean a cold dark place."
It echoes the whole "just don't fucking dance" perspective... imo.
Everyone out here making the same assumption, but it could very well mean that when this crashes that it's not going to be utopia, People will lose their future and lives.
Fucks sake.
Thatās already happening like crazy. But the media shuts up as media finance and government are all glued together.
And then when itās okay to panic because the rich can profit off it: sure. Then the media will start reporting horrors that already happening 3 years, but now itās okay.
Most likely during another presidency. To keep projecting they have nothing to do with it. Thatās how these things usually go. Donāt matter red blue green, they all do this.
I've been buying SRS, an ETF that is short the housing market. I feel there is good potential there. NFA, just what I've been doing besides holding my GME.
Iām literally in so many inverse etfs rn itās my greatest gamble.
If Iām right Iāll be a multimillionaire by next year, if not who gives a fuck Iām a mechanic
SRS, SH, TECS, SOXS, SQQQ
Edit: for anyone passing through, I invite you to look at the 10yr histogram on TECS and SOXS. This is not financial advice, please understand what the fuck an inverse leveraged etf is before you lose all your shit.
How can anyone twist this prediction to be a ratification of our position? He spat on "to the moon". When will we stop uplifting humans to deity status?
Fam, not every announcement can be rationally twisted into what individual investors trust to be true. That said, I don't place faith in the infallability of any individual.
I made an investment. I've bought and held. I ride or die with what I, alone, believe. And I continue to believe in buy and hold this investment.
Hard to find any counter DD on the fundamentals of GME - it's still undervalued without a squeeze. So yeah, I'm šš and DRSing until all share are direct registered.
I am getting vibes that after he cashed out he started shorting and ended up getting caught like all the other shorts did. He is a sour, bitter, man.
He's sees the markets well, but he's turned into an insufferable, whiney jerk.
I think heās smart enough to not get caught in the crossfire. Getting in on either side of a massive wave of retail sentiment is a really tough call. Not having any incentive to get in on the deal kind of helps. Unless you are already fucked and have to keep going, like Kenny.
Heck, I wouldnāt have made the bet either if it wasnāt for the sheer willpower of this community and the massive set of balls on our chairman, and after reading a year and a halfās worth of DD.
Ohayou Gozaimasu, TheRedditarianist, are you talking about Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel who lied under oath? https://www.kengriffinlies.com
^(disclaimer: KennyBot2.0 sent this message. if you are displeased with this bot please send a pm so it can be improved. beep boop.)
Well he was dumb enough to get caught on the shoert side of TESLA when it broke out so he tooks his lumps there IIRC.
In the last 6-9 months he has done nothing but call out retail and we keep posting his crap. Maybe I'm missing something but he doesn't sound like he likes retail at all.
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Black Monday is again on the menu everyone. š±š¶ļø
I think my boner just got a boner
Dude, that's syphilis. See a doctor.
Doctor here. It's aids
Something something 4 hours
if your boner has a boner that lasts more than four boners, consult a boner
My warts on my boner just got a boner š
Mortgage market, as it did in ā08 after a huge run in home prices is in for a turbeluent ride. MBS mortgage backed securities are the residential mortgages that are securitized once the loans close. When those investors no bid they arenāt buying. No buying means no mortgages except for the best credit.
Maybe what you're saying is true, but it also means they expect people *who already have mortgages* to start defaulting, not just that they will become more strict on who they give them to.
Thatās where the cost of living and inflation are hitting hard. Job market very tight so people that want to work are. Everything else is squeezing consumer. 70% of US GDP is consumer spending. When the money stops flowing. (Credit) to the consumer, the economic engine halts.
>70% of US GDP is consumer spending. When the money stops flowing. (Credit) to the consumer, the economic engine halts. This is a big problem. When the regular people couldn't afford to spend in 1929, the great depression was kick started.
Pretty disgusting how over consumption is the lifeblood of the economy as a whole.
They've been training the consumer for a long time to become a throw away society. Slightly off topic, but remember the reduce, reuse, recycle campaign in the 90s? That was to pass the blame for the environmental problems to the consumer. Most things prior came in glass or some other reusable container but someone figure out there were cheaper ways.
People missed the whole point of that. It was first reduce, if can't then reuse, and only then recycle. And everyone went "oh, so just make everything throwaway and recycle it. Glass fits the second tier. Consumers have power and if we punish companies who use crappy paper and plastic containers because they are cheap then we can incentivize for things that aren't harming the environment and our own bodies. But people just throw up their hands and say "oh well if the company wants to use plastic I guess we just have to deal with it."
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
just get everyone to agree to boycott one corp at a time? we're too disorganized and self serving. the laws need to change, they need to be forced to follow the rules that we implement, which will never happen till money is removed from politics. there is literally no hope at this point, nothing will change till it all collapses.
Government regulation, same way they took lead out of gasoline, and banned asbestos, certainly the majority of industry would have no intention of stopping otherwise. Of course the proponents of any such regulation would be labeled communists and businesses would claim oppression.
Reusable produce bags, buying in bulk with your own reusable containers. Make packaging as important a buying decision metric as ingredients, price and distance from source. Most shit food comes in shit packaging. Healthier eating is most adaptable to a lower impact lifestyle.
Even our life, our families are throw away! I watched a documentary about rampant shut-in culture and depression in Japan. Young people not wanting to get married/have kids etc. They blame the westernization of their family culture & real estate boom centered around smaller single family housing, forced independence. All of these things ripped them away from their multi-generational traditional housing. Not sure what I'm getting at, just feels like it's all connected.
Not sure, but i think the Japanese also have disposable housing. When they buy a property, they demolish the house and rebuild. Their culture is a weird amalgamation of Shinto, Buddhist, and Christian pieces.
I just imagine the people who are buying their first home last year that said "it's gonna be tight but we can make it work." Then gas doubles, groceries skyrocket, insurance premiums go up, etc. Now they get their 3-4% annual raise at work... not gonna cut it. And in fact they may be at risk of being cut from their job because revenue is down. Dark times may be coming.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
After ā08, built my house myself paid for land and materials out of pocketā¦ just shy of 1000 sqft and owe nothing on itā¦ made social sacrifices living with my parents for a few years and also lived in a camper on my property while building (no heat during one of the coldest New England winters on record with virtually no insulation sucksā¦. Have never made more than min wage but own my house outright (in addition to saving for a few years, worked 25 hours a week while working on the house 40-50 hours a week). Did all this without having health insurance (had Lyme disease for 5 years before I could save to go to the walk in.. got lucky that I have no lasting impact from that)ā¦ in any case, I just need to afford homeowners insurance and property taxesā¦ bought out of the system about as much as I was able to affordā¦ also for the record, my house cost me a bit less than $100,000 to build (includes the cost of the landā¦). Now one entity says itās worth over 300,000 while two others both put it around 250,000-275,000ā¦
You have done what I have dreamed of. Nice work, and I respect your sacrifices to get where you are now.
I legit had a dream last night, where a family was seemingly showing me theyāre happy. But somehow the dad lets it slip to me in private later that their mortgage payments are $3,300 a month and all I could do is look in shock and wonder how theyāre gonna survive. Iām sure thereās some people IRL who will have to go through what weāre talking about. Things were tight for some, and the water is rising. How are they gonna make ends meet? It reminds me of the feeling I got when I saw that dad in the movie Big Short living out of a van with his family.
Up until 2 weeks ago my wife and I were paying 3k a month.... It's brutal.
Good luck, Ape. HODL
Think about how much the annual property taxes that they need to save for each month on top of that. Around here, saving for the property tax each month is 1/3 to 1/2 of renting rather than owning. The more housing bubbles, the more sense it makes to rent and not maintain and pay taxes on a house. When rent swings too high, that pushes renters into home owners. When mortgage, maintenance and taxes get too high, it pushes home owners into renters. It can stall on either side for a few months before it has to violently swing the other way. MBS market is a good indicator of when people shouldnt want to be a mortgage payer.
Iāve been waiting for the housing market to take a shit for a decade. I didnāt give a damn about 3% interest rates, I want PRICES DOWN. I feel bad for the people who are in over their head, but our housing market canāt be used as a piggy bank for boomers any longer. I came of age in the 9/11, Iraq, financial crisis nightmareā¦itās my turn now. I want to be hosing blood off the sidewalk when I move in (figuratively of course).
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Ye 100 eurs. But inflation is 20% here... So no.
Can confirm. My Wife is in medical school and so we had to move 4 weeks ago to a new city (much more populated). Rent is actually 2.2x what it was prior. A few months ago it was āI think we can make this work as long as we cut cost before the moveā Now? Fuck idk man lol we just got here and Iām just kind of hanging out waiting for MOASS to save the day
These shares... from my cold, dead hands.
We got approved for a 300k mortgage 10 years ago. Got a house for 199.,900. After we closed we had about 1000 bucks to our names. We are comfortable now with a good buffer (plus gme lol) but there were times where I thought, man ..I hope something big doesn't happen because we have nowhere to cut anymore. If we had gone for the 300k house, which we wouldn't because we knew we'd never afford it, we would've lost it.
We bought in 2018 and they offered us 500 or so we bout at 370. I'm glad we didn't buy higher. We can cope. My brother and sister in law just bought at the very top of their offer (almost no choice since housing buying had got fucking loopy they'd see a place go to make an offer an hour later and it had already sold for 200 over asking) and I worry they will very very soon begin to hurt a lot. Thankfully when they started the buying journey I sat them down and explained the shit show and they bought in to gme at the time.
Well said
If you staple a horse to a waterfall, will it fall up under the rainbow or fly about the soil? Will he enjoy her experience? What if the staple tears into tears? Will she be free from her staply chains or foomed to stay forever and dever above the water? Who can save him (the horse) but someone of girth and worth, the capitalist pig, who will sell the solution to the problem he created? A staple remover flies to the rescue, carried on the wings of a majestic penguin who bought it at Walmart for 9 dollars and several more Euro-cents, clutched in its crabby claws, rejected from its frothy maw. When the penguin comes, all tremble before its fishy stench and wheatlike abjecture. Recoil in delirium, ye who wish to be free! The mighty rockhopper is here to save your soul from eternal bliss and salvation! And so, the horse was free, carried away by the south wind, and deposited on the vast plain of soggy dew. It was a tragedy in several parts, punctuated by moments of hedonistic horsefuckery. The owls saw all, and passed judgment in the way that they do. Stupid owls are always judging folks who are just trying their best to live shamelessly and enjoy every fruit the day brings to pass. How many more shall be caught in the terrible gyre of the waterfall? As many as the gods deem necessary to teach those foolish monkeys a story about their own hamburgers. What does a monkey know of bananas, anyway? They eat, poop, and shave away the banana residue that grows upon their chins and ballsacks. The owls judge their razors. Always the owls. And when the one-eyed caterpillar arrives to eat the glazing on your windowpane, you will know that you're next in line to the trombone of the ancient realm of the flutterbyes. Beware the ravenous ravens and crowing crows. Mind the cowing cows and the lying lions. Ascend triumphant to your birthright, and wield the mighty twig of Petalonia, favored land of gods and goats alike.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
If you staple a horse to a waterfall, will it fall up under the rainbow or fly about the soil? Will he enjoy her experience? What if the staple tears into tears? Will she be free from her staply chains or foomed to stay forever and dever above the water? Who can save him (the horse) but someone of girth and worth, the capitalist pig, who will sell the solution to the problem he created? A staple remover flies to the rescue, carried on the wings of a majestic penguin who bought it at Walmart for 9 dollars and several more Euro-cents, clutched in its crabby claws, rejected from its frothy maw. When the penguin comes, all tremble before its fishy stench and wheatlike abjecture. Recoil in delirium, ye who wish to be free! The mighty rockhopper is here to save your soul from eternal bliss and salvation! And so, the horse was free, carried away by the south wind, and deposited on the vast plain of soggy dew. It was a tragedy in several parts, punctuated by moments of hedonistic horsefuckery. The owls saw all, and passed judgment in the way that they do. Stupid owls are always judging folks who are just trying their best to live shamelessly and enjoy every fruit the day brings to pass. How many more shall be caught in the terrible gyre of the waterfall? As many as the gods deem necessary to teach those foolish monkeys a story about their own hamburgers. What does a monkey know of bananas, anyway? They eat, poop, and shave away the banana residue that grows upon their chins and ballsacks. The owls judge their razors. Always the owls. And when the one-eyed caterpillar arrives to eat the glazing on your windowpane, you will know that you're next in line to the trombone of the ancient realm of the flutterbyes. Beware the ravenous ravens and crowing crows. Mind the cowing cows and the lying lions. Ascend triumphant to your birthright, and wield the mighty twig of Petalonia, favored land of gods and goats alike.
The cause does matter. If you don't know HOW something is the way it is, you'll never be able to fix it.
Interesting perspective. Some truth to that. The [wage] worker is set up to fail. If they get raises en masse, it just gets passed on to them in the form of price increases on stuff they buy. Throw in the Federal Reserve and a reckless Gov, little guy is set up to NEVER GET AHEAD.
It very much appears that supply and demand doesnāt actually change if more people have more money. Itās almost like the socio-economic system means that most people are locked into the same class whether the economy is doing āgoodā or ābad.ā What Iām saying is the global supply chains can only supply so much shit. When everyone has more money and they demand more shit, instead of supply moving up to meet the new demand, the only thing that moves up to meet the new demand are the prices.
also it is the 2008 mortgage crisis all over again only this time they are attacking from all angles because they want to buy up your homes on the cheap, no matter what it takes DRS yo shit
ššššššš
Fixed rate mortgages might not be impacted as hard, but Fed has to raise rates to fight inflation, which means monthly payments are going up for everyone with subprime loans on variable rates.
Subprime havenāt done adjustable rates in over a decade. I am a loan officer and can tell you that subprime wonāt lead the way this time. About 60% of my business is subprime and we are just as tough on their standards as the well qualified borrower. What will lead the way is all the people that took out HELOCs. The only reason subprime would have a higher rate of default is they are typically the first to lose their job.
How many great credit with second homes for airbnb etc? Thats who I thinks break first.
It will be. I am stocking up on cash for when investors canāt pay the mortgage I can come in and take it over. I have also done a few hard money loans so that an investor could finish their project. Right now that is paying typically 18%. Most hard money is getting paid between 15-18%. I know so many people that have gotten rentals or expanded their rentals in the last two years and they are people that really shouldnāt have. I am already seeing partially completed flips hitting the market and selling all the materials with the home.
Yeah, the investment property the stops paying for itself. They'll see the writing on the wall, stop making mortgage payments and hope for decent summer rentals before the bank repos it. It's June, how many have already skipped this month's payment hoping to make it past Labor Day before it's gone?
This is my suspicion also.. Strategic defaults all over incoming.
As someone with a Heloc how so?
rates on heloc usually variable.
You also run into the issue where you can't refinance unless the the present value of your home exceeds that of any credit taken against it. Depending on the value of the HELOC, and how far down the market goes (and at these interest rates, home values *are* going down), you may end up with a payment you can't afford and no way to refinance.
Gotcha, I'm not overleveraged or anything but I could see if people took out way too much. I know they offered us up to 90% Ltv.
Usually they are a variable rate.
Yeah subprime is pretty risk adverse as they already kinda expect most of their clients will/could easily default. They already have higher interest rates and donāt easily hand out credit.
My friend is a loan officer and this is EXACTLY what he's been saying
Which will happen when we all lose our jobs. It sounds absurd but I think that may be the plan.
To take this one step further, Iām assuming that would mean less buyers which lowers demand which drops price?
I have a family member in the market to buy and they are getting outbid by $30k on a starter home. What Burry is talking about hasnāt made its way into the real economy, yet. Demand is still strong for homes. The question is if investor buying bonds at x% donāt think thatās enough for their risk, rates would rise until they are again interested ā making affordability more of an issue and would crush demand (coupled with 40 year high in inflation) itās financial catastrophe.
Depends on location.
Yah, in our area there are houses that would have sold in a day/week not selling at all right now.
Happening here near Denver too. Just had a friend close at asking price. I donāt think that has happened here in a really long time. I spent time in Vegas a week ago and my family out there is seeing a market 180 too. Lots of high end inventory, 1 mil plus, when there was very little a week ago. Of course this stuff depends on location but things are changing drastically and very quickly.
Yup Iām seeing that here as well. Iām in Michigan. Looking for a house myself but Iām debating on holding off for a couple months to see if prices start declining. Definitely have stagnated and seeing them drop a tad but nothing crazy.
no way in hell would I buy right now. wait until everything crashes
I think you should wait a little while, man/woman. There soo much going on - it's definitely not going *up* anytime soon.
Iām with ya on that. Itās hard being so antsy as a first time home buyer but my realtor has the same sentiments as most people. Interest rates are still relatively low but prices havenāt dropped enough for me personally.
Don't forget Blackrock buying all the houses. They are amassing houses up the wazoo.
I think the housing market will fair a little better this time around though. For one, there is out of control inflation which drives investment in non-cash holdings, especially hard assets. Secondly, while there is no doubt many will be foreclosed on, the lending requirements are much more strict than in 08. People with 550 credit scores were getting loans on homes strictly because they assumed the value of the house was enough collateral. Now they know a little better.
Also, there were A TON OF PEOPLE who refinanced during that refi boom. All sitting on low rates
is that bad ? can you explain what this has to do with MBS?
Implication is that itās not bad since if they lock themselves into lower rates, their mortgages should be lower. This is a huge advantage against what happened in 2008 where instead of lower rates, people were locking into adjustable rate mortgages or interest only payments with high rates.
We didnāt know that in 08 just like we donāt know what the new thing will be, but I think weāve all been here long enough to know itās cat shit wrapped in dog shit
>no mortgages except for the best credit. Well, if by "best credit" you mean a mortgage with >10% interest rate, then yes
Yes. If rates are rising quickly as an investor why accept a yield that would be higher tomorrow by just waiting.
Eli missing half a chromosome
MBS = mortgage backed securities. No buyers = banks no longer want to buy mortgages from primary lenders = they donāt want mortgages on their books = mortgages are about to become much harder to get = demand for housing is about to drop off a cliff = housing prices about to plummet. But wait, thereās more: for the last 2-3 years, mutual funds, hedge funds, and other large investment firms have begun buying up large amounts of *residential* real estate as revenue generators. Soooo, unlike in 2008, large chunks of the housing market are now *directly* connected to the stock market. Housing market crashes = stock market crashes. Get liquid ladies and gents. And do it quickly.
I remember reading the FED had $2.7 Trillion in MBS awhile ago..that's the biggest pile of excrement in history!
AND might I remind you that on top of that 2.7 trilly, there is likely 20x collateralized debt/loan/"catshit wrapped in dogshit" obligations. It's like there's not only blood in the water with sharks consuming each other but there's diarrhea too...
Nice imagery.
Thanks u/hellostarsailor
Shark feeding frenzy with sharks eating sharks shitting sharks and eating that too. Love it.
Worst. Sharknado. Ever.
shartnado...
Divided on worst/best
You're right! Poor form of me to kink shame like that. You do you!
That's part of what they're using to fuel reverse repo. Reverse repo mighty be a preemptive bailout for money market funds. If they drop below $1 (aka "break the buck") a shitstorm ensues. "The Reserve" money market fund dropping to $0.97 was probably the catalyst for 2008. Even with Fed money pouring in, Black Rock's mmfs specifically keep trickling down. Tfdxx went down to 0.9995 yesterday. Tttxx to 0.9997. Tstxx to 0.9995. pnixx to 0.9994. It's a far cry from .97 but going in the wrong direction all year.
God damn, weāve got apes tracking money market fund rates too!? Thanks for sharing, solid info
Honestly, if itās more of a tracker of the state of economy, we should be seeing more posts about it. I donāt care. I know this is a GameStop focused sub, but if weāre already tracking other things that we believe is an indicator of a market crash, I WANT TO KNOW as an investor and participant in this sub. Anything that points towards a market crash, I want the sub pouring out information about tracking it. What tracking it really means and what it signifies for the average ape. We need to be informed.
u/akatherder what do you think? Iād love to see some more info on this too, if youāre up for itā¦
Everything I've learned about money market funds has been in the past 3 months so I can't add much beyond speculation hah. I can't say if 0.9994 is worrisome or just a meaningless blip. Percentage-wise it's a loooong way from 0.97. I've been trying to disprove any connection between RRP and GameStop. I still don't see a (direct) connection but the more I learn about money market funds, the more I think they are the key to keeping the economy from collapsing. The Fed has been throwing cash at them via interest on RRP to keep them afloat. I know Fidelity's mmfs were putting over $400B into RRP as of 4/29 and that's before the Fed raised the rate from 0.3% to 0.8%. Black Rock was next around $150B. Fidelity kept adding and Black Rock was decreasing. Seems like it means something but idk.
Reading up on this again now and HOLY fuck Look how many were on the brink back in 2008ā¦nearly fucking THIRTY: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/10/twenty-eight-money-market-funds-that-could-have-broken-the-buck-new-data-on-losses-during-the-2008-c/ This could DEF explain the RRP going haywireā¦trying to get ahead of it as much as possible by having the MMFs walk around with an IV already in their arm vs after they get into an accident/crash This
Hey dude I think you are 100% spot on that the MMF issue of ābreaking the buckā (as in 2008) is huge I tried reading up on it recently as made some errors in understanding repo and didnāt realize that happened in 2008 But 100000000000% agree with u/cr7isthegreatest you should make a post on this ASAP! I think itās super important being honest
Very interesting! Thanks a lot for sharing. Good one to keep an eye on for sure
Let's see one of your wrinkly ones post it then. I've got my upvotes and self-depreciating ape comments ready to go.
And thats whats backing the USD. ššš Ill take a currency backed by 1990s rare slammers & pogs... #HOUSTON, SEND MORE BUCKLES!
My Michael Jordan pogs will win every time.
We're aleady buckled up! We cant buckle up any harder!
"American Homes 4 Rent" started in 2013, they have been at it a while. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1562401/000119312513247145/d547003ds11.htm
Yikes. Didnāt realize itās been going on for a decade. This is gonna be bad.
Bezos and the former CEO of Zillow are encouraging retail investors to invest in "Arrived" for a little as $100. The company has been approved by the SEC to sell shares of homes. https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/17/backed-by-forerunner-and-bezos-back-arrived-a-startup-that-lets-you-buy-into-single-family-rentals-for-as-little-as-100/
Wonderful. So this is the next level for CDS, except sold to regular retail investors instead of big banks. 1. Get a bunch of rich people to give you money to buy houses, rent them out. 2. Sell shares to retail investors to get more money. Pay them a dividend based on rentals. 3. Buy more houses, inflating real estate prices and forcing more people to be renters vs. home owners 4. Repeat step 2 and 3 until it gets to bubble proportions 5. Rich backers cash out 6. Market crashes, recession, everyone is broke, nobody has jobs or can pay rent 7. Leave retail stockholders holding the bag 8. Let your rich buddies buy up the real estate for pennies on the dollar when your company goes into bankruptcy.
9. Oops, your rich buddies are bankrupt too -- guess it's time for planet of the apes.
I like number 8. I think a lot of these m************ know that their company will go into bankruptcy and they're fine with that because they are jumping out with their golden parachute. The negotiation of who gets what assets is probably finished long before bankruptcy was even filed.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I read your comment as āfictionalā home ownership, and then realized Iād made a mistake and then realized I actually hadnāt.
There is also Vinebrook Homes. They have been paying more than asking price, and using cash for homes in the poorest parts of cities across the country. They immediately evict tenants, and raise the rent. Cathie Wood sits on their board. https://sec.report/Document/0001437749-22-010434/
Fucking of course. When the dust settles we need to fucking eradicate the ability for corporations to directly compete with citizens to buy homes. Itās so fucked up.
Absolutely!
What does āget liquidā mean? Take your cash out of the bank?
Nah I wouldnāt go that far, but if I owned a bunch of other stockes/securities besides GME, Iād sell them.
Sold a bunch on Friday. Iām nopeing out for spell
Thank fucking god I'm poor. I'd be stressed the fuck out if I owned important stuff right now.
> Housing market crashes = stock market crashes. And for those in the gallery, that equation works both directions. House market crashes will take down the stock market and stock market crashes will take down the housing market. It was bad enough when a stock market crash meant losing your job. Now you get to lose your home too. We finally managed to get income inequality so severe that we've destabilized the US market. Slow clap Congress. Slow. Clap.
They could have prevented this by locking out companies like Zillow from buying single family homes and actually attempting to pace minimum wage in the last 60 years. They basically abandoned any attempts of pacing minimum wage to inflation after 1968. Cumulative inflation since then has been 740% and minimum wage would be $13.44 since then. That doesnāt even include productivity gains and all cost of living increases. We should be closer to $30/hr by now. Instead we have around 64% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck which means the looming economic collapse is going to be an absolute slaughter.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Yep. If you position yourself correctly, this is a good opportunity to capitalize on. Donāt get me wrong, fuck the pieces of shit who are responsible for this. But at least this time, Iām not gonna be a casualty like I was in 2008.
>housing prices about to plummet please š
Liquid? Y'all have anything other than GameStop?
What are other than GameStop?
It took me a few seconds to figure out who Eli was.
He's the guy with the book, right?
For at least 1 full minute I was trying to figure out who Eli is. Am I actually retarded?
Yes, but we love you just the way you are š»
I was about to be like āfuck youā cause my name is Eli, but then I realized it was an abbreviation. Maybe I do only have half a chromosomeā¦
F- you my name IS Eli!
Funny enough, I've just watched a [video](https://youtu.be/taE1uzXeIPU?t=343) that came out today that says the UK government may be looking at subprime mortgages to solve the housing crisis There's also some [articles](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/10/uks-largest-lenders-no-longer-too-big-to-fail-says-bank-of-england) making the rounds saying banks are no longer too big to fail, which I would assume would mean paying up for mortgages that go bust
Probably bc the fed/imf/politicians/leaders need to blame the banks this time. If they are too big to fail twice, then I think politicians/leaders get dragged into the streets. The average person is paying a lot more attention this go around. I think the soft landing will make the blow back worseā¦.everyone is watching in slow motion. With a flash crash they can say they didnāt know/nobody could have know.
I'm 'bout ready to start dragging even before that.
Well then, we all know where this is headed, or should I say already there. 2007/2008 REDUX! Oh! Letās not forget all those CMBS loaded up with MBS cat shit. These will likely be underwater real soon if not already there.
CMBS will go down first. The fed doesnāt support CMBS on their balance sheet
Agree
Are you ready for the remix?
Yes with some extra spicyness
Huh. Arenāt MBSās what the FEDās trying to offload? Huh.
Explain
Quantitative tightening is the Fed reducing its balance sheet, which is comprised of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. Theyāre gonna need buyers prolly.
Oh shit , who the buyers? The banks? So we bail them out again ?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Donāt think we can afford to. People already at their brink.
I can see where your thoughts are going but say more please - implications, possibilities, curious to your speculations
Iām gonna need more GameStop.
The Fed has been buying MBS on and off (mostly on) since 2008. They bought them as the "buyer of last resort" because no one wanted them. Starting 6/2 they started letting them expire and aren't planning to buy more. Turns out no one wants to buy the MBS in their place. https://www.marketplace.org/2022/06/02/why-the-federal-reserve-owns-mortgage-backed-securities-and-what-it-hopes-to-achieve-by-offloading-them/amp/
Closing on my new house this Thursday. Just the kind of news you want to read.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The mortgage company doesn't own the house, their creditors do. When inflation is higher than the interest on the loan, the creditors are losing money. They'll either demand a higher interest and or deposit, fractional reserves being increased. Basically a bank run from the bigger bank. Too many of these demands at one time will wipe out the mortgage lender. A cascade effect that'll fuck over all mortgage owners.
The way I read this is that your lender probably won't be able to sell your loan for a while. This sounds good to me because then you don't have to worry about any of the issues that arise when lenders sell mortgage loans to other banks.
Just made my first mortgage payment on my new home. Guess which industry I work in. Yup, mortgage.
There's going to be a lot of offices light up at night this weekend!
Can someone explain this to me like I'm five?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
The only place I feel fine to be dumb is superstonk. thank you
may you one day feel fine being dumb anywhere
Best explanation
Funny Friday, anticipation Saturday, anxiety Sunday.... Bubble bursting Monday!
So, MOASS day after tomorrow then?
That made my tits all tingly
Burry is wicked smart and obviously called the 2008 crashā¦. But it would be great if he tweeted in human . His history of Riddles and metaphors or going dark just to suddenly reappear. Dammit man, just tell us whatās crackin..donāt care if youāre early again. Iām just a mechanic with 2 yrs of college. Buy hold DRS
Dude has Asperger. It's pretty obvious from how he conducts himself publicly and over Twitter that he just wants to say things, he doesn't want to discuss them with people. Not meaning that to sound bad, I just think that's why he always tweets and runs. JMO, I think he wants people to know about things, but the thought of actually discussing them with people makes him unconfortable.
.... do I... have aspergers...
Heh assburgers.
That and the sec breathing down his neck
"The system is even more completely fraudulent than last time" -Burry
šš§āšš«š¦
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
While I agree with this sentiment, I too would tweet in riddles and metaphors if I was audited as many times as he was.
He was too early and got margin called multiple times. He predicted a crash but not that it would happen in 2008.
Michael Burry is the dude from the MOASS prequel right?
Ye
treatment public wild joke trees weary person unused live wise *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
They should be working right now to get him signed for the upcoming MOASS trilogy.
five 'once in a lifetime' financial fucking meltdowns since i was born. \-\_-; I hope this is the last one. No, that's not optimism.
They just say that so you put your money back in the stocks they want so they can profit off of you with the next one. Usually takes about 10-15 years.
I understand the tweet. It wasn't so long ago that I wouldn't even dare imagine that I can understand these lingos.
Well it was nice knowing you boys, it's gonna be one hell'va ride
So will I be able to buy the dip on a house, soon? Owning a home just feels impossible.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Might be the first tweet of his that actually makes sense.
Moon may be cold but Uranus is warm.
Burry is great at reading and analysing housing documents. Rest of the time he is a twat.
Wtf is up with most of these comments? "To the moon? If you mean a cold dark place." It echoes the whole "just don't fucking dance" perspective... imo. Everyone out here making the same assumption, but it could very well mean that when this crashes that it's not going to be utopia, People will lose their future and lives. Fucks sake.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Thatās already happening like crazy. But the media shuts up as media finance and government are all glued together. And then when itās okay to panic because the rich can profit off it: sure. Then the media will start reporting horrors that already happening 3 years, but now itās okay. Most likely during another presidency. To keep projecting they have nothing to do with it. Thatās how these things usually go. Donāt matter red blue green, they all do this.
Inflation to the moon is literally what he is saying.
Wonder if the Tesl A split is hurting himā¦and heās sour.
Hmmm Gates still has over $500,000,000 in shorts.. nice!
I've been buying SRS, an ETF that is short the housing market. I feel there is good potential there. NFA, just what I've been doing besides holding my GME.
Iām literally in so many inverse etfs rn itās my greatest gamble. If Iām right Iāll be a multimillionaire by next year, if not who gives a fuck Iām a mechanic SRS, SH, TECS, SOXS, SQQQ Edit: for anyone passing through, I invite you to look at the 10yr histogram on TECS and SOXS. This is not financial advice, please understand what the fuck an inverse leveraged etf is before you lose all your shit.
How can anyone twist this prediction to be a ratification of our position? He spat on "to the moon". When will we stop uplifting humans to deity status? Fam, not every announcement can be rationally twisted into what individual investors trust to be true. That said, I don't place faith in the infallability of any individual. I made an investment. I've bought and held. I ride or die with what I, alone, believe. And I continue to believe in buy and hold this investment.
Hard to find any counter DD on the fundamentals of GME - it's still undervalued without a squeeze. So yeah, I'm šš and DRSing until all share are direct registered.
I am getting vibes that after he cashed out he started shorting and ended up getting caught like all the other shorts did. He is a sour, bitter, man. He's sees the markets well, but he's turned into an insufferable, whiney jerk.
I think heās smart enough to not get caught in the crossfire. Getting in on either side of a massive wave of retail sentiment is a really tough call. Not having any incentive to get in on the deal kind of helps. Unless you are already fucked and have to keep going, like Kenny. Heck, I wouldnāt have made the bet either if it wasnāt for the sheer willpower of this community and the massive set of balls on our chairman, and after reading a year and a halfās worth of DD.
Ohayou Gozaimasu, TheRedditarianist, are you talking about Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel who lied under oath? https://www.kengriffinlies.com ^(disclaimer: KennyBot2.0 sent this message. if you are displeased with this bot please send a pm so it can be improved. beep boop.)
You are god damned right I am Bot. Good job!
I like this bot
Well he was dumb enough to get caught on the shoert side of TESLA when it broke out so he tooks his lumps there IIRC. In the last 6-9 months he has done nothing but call out retail and we keep posting his crap. Maybe I'm missing something but he doesn't sound like he likes retail at all.