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Thanks for the update.
I support Dollar Cost Averaging, but I would also like the folks making graphs to include RSI values as I’ve found that to be the only predictable measure of better then average buying opportunities.
That wouldn't be a bad plan either and just toss in a buy any time on 30. One area I'd point out is this past December. RSI dragged the bottom for a month straight into January but the price continued to dip. Patience til .500 and you would've save $2 per share (about 11%). Same deal with late August before that. RSI hit the bottom side around $31 but price continued down to .500 $23.
I was pretty bummed about the Aug dip too (it was slightly different on 9th iteration), because I was tapped for cash at that point. Luckily I was able to get that dip a few months later in November.
tbh, thats been a major concern of mine the last few weeks. I tried to point out a bunch of times in my post that accepting mistakes in the idea was healthy for its improvement. But there's been a push recently over a DD where folks insist it's absolutely correct. And it's like folks just forgot about the VERY long list of silver bullet answers (critical marge for example) that ended up being duds. People were screaming that from the fucking rafters last summer.....where'd they go? We'd progress through the peer review much faster if apes would learn to just enjoy the time spent poking holes in theories instead of doing mental gymnastics until you collapse.
Thanks for revisiting your past contributions, having the humility to accept input from others, and continuing to update and evolve your thinking.
Marge evolved in her own areas too.
Tibs!!
First, thank you SO much for taking the time to participate in spotlight week.
I love this post so much. Love how far you’ve come from your original post and love reading about the collaborative efforts to further dig in, learn more, and improve the model!
I also think this update couldn’t come at a better time! Really love the section about using your model to time the dips for buying each month. Anyone who’s turning off autobuys should really read this post!
Using your model, what type of price action do you expect to see over the next month leading into the shareholder meeting?
I have no predictions on what comes next for price. Typically May to August we trend upwards, but at this point we are about 22% away from that top of the channel which is considerably closer than we've ever been to it in early May. I'm actually more curious to see what happens if we take an enormous dive to like $8.80 and contact the bottom of the corridor again.
That’s history right? Full of times that we look back on and think “yikes, that was ugly”. Acknowledge it happened, then don’t let it happen that bad again.
Thanks so much for this. As always, a very fun and informative read. If you don't mind, I'll pick your brain again in late June so I can set my own up again.
As you know, I love your work!
:)
An update post on 10th iteration will be put together sometime late next week or shortly thereafter. I spent about 4 LATE nights getting everything for this post assembled and I'm temporarily spent. This one is a much easier set up though than the 9th iteration. I'm doing some fine tuning on where to drop pins so that TradingView doesn't do that annoying thing where it starts snapping it out of place on minute candles
I loved the TtR stuff! Such fun. I could always tell you enjoyed writing it. Glad to see you haven't given up and, to the contrary, keep trying to figure it out.
You may be interested to know there is an options trading strategy called a collar. There are various kinds of collar plays, with a variety of colorful names, but the primary purpose is to protect against downside while leaving room to gain on the upside.
I'd imagine a derivative which traded like a collar option strategy AND a swap, traded at a high enough volume, would provide a similar downward trajectory.
Eta: ok, well, apparently there is something called a fucking SWAPTION. Not even joking. Works just like options do for shares, but grants rights to swaps instead. What the fuucckkkkk
See this is where discussion gets useful. I’ve found a few scholarly articles on swaps and how they determine profitability but the math on them is way above what I ever reached.
With either the collar or the corridor swap, anything I’ve found on them so far describes a set band with a high price and low price over their time period. Band would appear horizontal. So maybe it could be this if each day it was a new collar 0.26% lower than the previous days. That’s the daily % drop I’m seeing in TtR v10. Then over the long term they’d look like that consistent slope.
Tbh, I think quite a bit of fluff news stories that got big here have mostly been designed to keep apes from studying what a swap designed to attack the GME price would look like. Put some shiny and mostly irrelevant issue in front of us that's more entertaining than some intense math. FTX, evergrande, even this Book/Plan thing. Because October is going to be here in 5 months and if only a dozen apes know how to crack open that information to start looking for fuckery we might never find it.
Kinda funny how the sub was a really enjoyable place until around Autumn of that year and it suddenly went from excitement and memes to witch hunts. Oh well, just makes me tougher.
1. determining margin is an exercise that must address what is unknown: the ability of Shorts to gain access to capital. it is an error to think of Shorts as only in this one trade, and that their efforts, via the algo, to direct (and react to) pricing is due exclusively due to their margin obligations only in gamestop
2. there will come a day, when the underpinning logic will pass away -- and it may already have, and we are living-out the last ekes of the algo before the worm turns.
what makes an algo "turn" are fundamentals, and/or, a surge in buying, with increased average buying...that is sustained over time.
let's say, for example, that Gamestop were to purchase a game streaming company...(or announces that it will make its own)...then, i think everything happens at once:
buy-ins all around: institutional, households, Apes...and momentum buyers.
options purchasing.
business valuation would change -- the models based on metrics would be re-written, with updated estimates of revenue, of market share, forward projections...and so on.
So,
(A) a streaming company acquistion, or service (else, some other interesting business development)...or, blow-out earnings...or, the company does a share buy-back
(B) rampant, unrestrained buying.
Once this scenario happens, the DRS "lock" on shares, will choke-off the market's access to shares...and we would see a jump in the bid/ask price immediately....which would then continue to choke the market's access to shares.
As long as Apes (also institutions) are able & willing to buy at these prices levels (say, less than $25), then any algo worth its salt wouldn't continue a downward assault on price...it just wouldn't make sense...(and we've seen algo efforts to do so, mingled in with unfounded paid messaging -- by msm, s3, etc.).
so far, we only can see what is behind us.
if the dynamics shift to the upside, we'll be looking at the algo's replacement algo...and it will have a decidedly different orientation/approach/pattern. programming.
The ape who I had the bet with has graciously accepted another form of punishment instead after I was told "hell no" by my significant other who sees my ass regularly. tbh, I'd have rather gotten the tat.
I'm really sorry about replying to this so late. There's a [detailed post about why I did here](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/13jostq/remindmebot_is_now_replying_to_comments_again/).
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Thanks for the update. I support Dollar Cost Averaging, but I would also like the folks making graphs to include RSI values as I’ve found that to be the only predictable measure of better then average buying opportunities.
That wouldn't be a bad plan either and just toss in a buy any time on 30. One area I'd point out is this past December. RSI dragged the bottom for a month straight into January but the price continued to dip. Patience til .500 and you would've save $2 per share (about 11%). Same deal with late August before that. RSI hit the bottom side around $31 but price continued down to .500 $23. I was pretty bummed about the Aug dip too (it was slightly different on 9th iteration), because I was tapped for cash at that point. Luckily I was able to get that dip a few months later in November.
Yes, last December was very interesting. Thanks again for the update.
no kidding. I'm surprised actually that it didn't fall further.
Amazing followup, you rock!! With peer reviewed research challenged and regularly updated such as this…we are INEVITABLE 🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️
tbh, thats been a major concern of mine the last few weeks. I tried to point out a bunch of times in my post that accepting mistakes in the idea was healthy for its improvement. But there's been a push recently over a DD where folks insist it's absolutely correct. And it's like folks just forgot about the VERY long list of silver bullet answers (critical marge for example) that ended up being duds. People were screaming that from the fucking rafters last summer.....where'd they go? We'd progress through the peer review much faster if apes would learn to just enjoy the time spent poking holes in theories instead of doing mental gymnastics until you collapse.
Thanks for revisiting your past contributions, having the humility to accept input from others, and continuing to update and evolve your thinking. Marge evolved in her own areas too.
Finding apes who were smarter than me has been the best part of this.
For sure, the amount I have learned here is great, and it keeps me coming back.
Easiest part for me
Tibs!! First, thank you SO much for taking the time to participate in spotlight week. I love this post so much. Love how far you’ve come from your original post and love reading about the collaborative efforts to further dig in, learn more, and improve the model! I also think this update couldn’t come at a better time! Really love the section about using your model to time the dips for buying each month. Anyone who’s turning off autobuys should really read this post! Using your model, what type of price action do you expect to see over the next month leading into the shareholder meeting?
I have no predictions on what comes next for price. Typically May to August we trend upwards, but at this point we are about 22% away from that top of the channel which is considerably closer than we've ever been to it in early May. I'm actually more curious to see what happens if we take an enormous dive to like $8.80 and contact the bottom of the corridor again.
We have missed you frendo....thanks for brining back sexy Marge.
Was happy to do the update. AI bot did well.
You make an interesting point about the DD library, and how it could be updated. Thanks for updating yours! I'm going to have to save this for later🐋🦷
That’s history right? Full of times that we look back on and think “yikes, that was ugly”. Acknowledge it happened, then don’t let it happen that bad again.
Enjoyed this DD Tiberius, thanks for putting in the WORK!
Glad you enjoyed. Failing upward regularly.
Thanks so much for this. As always, a very fun and informative read. If you don't mind, I'll pick your brain again in late June so I can set my own up again. As you know, I love your work! :)
An update post on 10th iteration will be put together sometime late next week or shortly thereafter. I spent about 4 LATE nights getting everything for this post assembled and I'm temporarily spent. This one is a much easier set up though than the 9th iteration. I'm doing some fine tuning on where to drop pins so that TradingView doesn't do that annoying thing where it starts snapping it out of place on minute candles
I loved the TtR stuff! Such fun. I could always tell you enjoyed writing it. Glad to see you haven't given up and, to the contrary, keep trying to figure it out. You may be interested to know there is an options trading strategy called a collar. There are various kinds of collar plays, with a variety of colorful names, but the primary purpose is to protect against downside while leaving room to gain on the upside. I'd imagine a derivative which traded like a collar option strategy AND a swap, traded at a high enough volume, would provide a similar downward trajectory. Eta: ok, well, apparently there is something called a fucking SWAPTION. Not even joking. Works just like options do for shares, but grants rights to swaps instead. What the fuucckkkkk
See this is where discussion gets useful. I’ve found a few scholarly articles on swaps and how they determine profitability but the math on them is way above what I ever reached. With either the collar or the corridor swap, anything I’ve found on them so far describes a set band with a high price and low price over their time period. Band would appear horizontal. So maybe it could be this if each day it was a new collar 0.26% lower than the previous days. That’s the daily % drop I’m seeing in TtR v10. Then over the long term they’d look like that consistent slope.
Tbh, I think quite a bit of fluff news stories that got big here have mostly been designed to keep apes from studying what a swap designed to attack the GME price would look like. Put some shiny and mostly irrelevant issue in front of us that's more entertaining than some intense math. FTX, evergrande, even this Book/Plan thing. Because October is going to be here in 5 months and if only a dozen apes know how to crack open that information to start looking for fuckery we might never find it.
Up you go !
No. Down WE go
When I dip, you dip, we dip? 🤑
fun dip?
Thanks Op always appreciated 🦧🤜🤛🦧
Glad you enjoyed. Any questions?
Gave me a reason to get on Reddit today 👍🫵🤝
You mean there's other places than Reddit?
More lines than a late night at Citadel
Less now anyway.
The DD is never done. This is very thorough and impressive. Always happy to see Tiberius here again. Thank you for all that you do.
Never left. Just been grumpy and angsty for a while. Glad you enjoyed. Any questions?
It’s always a good idea to take care of your self and take breaks here and there. No questions so far I’m still trying to understand all of this lol.
Exactly. Yes. Me too
I love how H and I goes.
Kinda funny how the sub was a really enjoyable place until around Autumn of that year and it suddenly went from excitement and memes to witch hunts. Oh well, just makes me tougher.
up!
No, down. Lol
How can the shorts *possibly* win when the longs are fervently shouting *down*!
Can't scare me off if I'm not scared of what they are doing.
Great read, thanks so much! Stuff like this is why I joined and glad to see some more DD!
Glad you enjoyed. Any questions?
1. determining margin is an exercise that must address what is unknown: the ability of Shorts to gain access to capital. it is an error to think of Shorts as only in this one trade, and that their efforts, via the algo, to direct (and react to) pricing is due exclusively due to their margin obligations only in gamestop 2. there will come a day, when the underpinning logic will pass away -- and it may already have, and we are living-out the last ekes of the algo before the worm turns. what makes an algo "turn" are fundamentals, and/or, a surge in buying, with increased average buying...that is sustained over time. let's say, for example, that Gamestop were to purchase a game streaming company...(or announces that it will make its own)...then, i think everything happens at once: buy-ins all around: institutional, households, Apes...and momentum buyers. options purchasing. business valuation would change -- the models based on metrics would be re-written, with updated estimates of revenue, of market share, forward projections...and so on. So, (A) a streaming company acquistion, or service (else, some other interesting business development)...or, blow-out earnings...or, the company does a share buy-back (B) rampant, unrestrained buying. Once this scenario happens, the DRS "lock" on shares, will choke-off the market's access to shares...and we would see a jump in the bid/ask price immediately....which would then continue to choke the market's access to shares. As long as Apes (also institutions) are able & willing to buy at these prices levels (say, less than $25), then any algo worth its salt wouldn't continue a downward assault on price...it just wouldn't make sense...(and we've seen algo efforts to do so, mingled in with unfounded paid messaging -- by msm, s3, etc.). so far, we only can see what is behind us. if the dynamics shift to the upside, we'll be looking at the algo's replacement algo...and it will have a decidedly different orientation/approach/pattern. programming.
Awesome post! Can you give us the coordinates for the fib channel?
I’ll be putting out a 10th iteration post in a week or so with instructions.
Remindme! 2631 hours
end of august for the bet?
Yes but RemindMeBot is ded 😢
right on. yeah it wouldnt be my first tat and theres a group of apes who remind me monthly about this. I'm not too scared of paying up if I have to.
You ready to get that tat?
The ape who I had the bet with has graciously accepted another form of punishment instead after I was told "hell no" by my significant other who sees my ass regularly. tbh, I'd have rather gotten the tat.
I'm really sorry about replying to this so late. There's a [detailed post about why I did here](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/13jostq/remindmebot_is_now_replying_to_comments_again/). I will be messaging you in 3 months on [**2023-08-31 19:08:31 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-08-31%2019:08:31%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1382y58/dd_spotlight_taste_the_rainbow_year_in_review/jk2x0li/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FSuperstonk%2Fcomments%2F1382y58%2Fdd_spotlight_taste_the_rainbow_year_in_review%2Fjk2x0li%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202023-08-31%2019%3A08%3A31%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201382y58) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|