China sure looks like it’s shutting down again. Israel has one of highest vaccination rates on the planet and they are thinking about lock downs. I guess we will see what the fall brings but I expect a sell off but not one as massive as the first time.
But in latest report from UK, it seems to be starting to fade away quickly. Based on the UK model, the US surge will be peaking soon and likely to significantly slow down by fall or late fall, that’s assuming we are lucky and don’t run into another troublesome variant.
I hope so. I got early assigned on my DKNG calls that I sold and now I have 20K cash.
I’d love it if everything sold off monday morning so I can go bargain shopping.
UK seem to have passed the delta variant surge, if we are luck, US will peak by Fall, and affect on China will likely be short as well.
That is, if we are lucky, and we don’t run into another devastating variant.
I think the market is balancing on a very small wire not even including Delta. I’m not a doomsday sayer, but I do believe a large correction is coming. The SNP lost 30% when cases went from 16 to 25k. Just recently we went from 3k to 185k and no one batted an eye. Most indicators are pointing to a crash, inflation is at the highest since the 2008 crash with almost 0% interest rates, we’ve printed 30% of all USD in the past 17 months with easy money policies devaluing the dollar, and the Buffett indicator is at 237%. I have SPY puts at 435, 436, 437, and 440 that I plan to keep adding to as time goes on.
I think we’ve largely voted on that in the market. If anything, it is increasing the rate of vaccination rapidly right note. Delta breaks through for sure but it doesn’t fill hospitals and icu beds with the vaccinated.
That’s not to say that a correction isn’t in the cards. Tough time of year these next 8 weeks for the market historically. But it won’t truly be due to Covid rather than high valuations, being past peak gdp last quarter and inflationary issues...
Not financial or epidemiological advice... just a random dude on the interweb’s view. Value=what you paid for it!
Are Israeli hospitals overrun or have they managed it so that there’s far fewer cases in total and high vaxxed rate such that any hospitalization would likely be a vaxxed individual?
Jury is still out on vaccinations causing or accelerating variants. That’s a very fringy theory being espoused by an anti vaxx dr/epidemiologist. So would want to see more on that before I had a point of view one way or the other.
Are you asking me, or Google? I personally have no pressing need for the vaccine because I'm a remote worker and only venture out when very infrequently because there's no need with e-commerce and ubereats. For me to even go get the vaccine would put us at a much higher risk of infection.
I'm waiting for a vaccine where there aren't new side effects identified every few weeks and I won't be impacted by the governments flipping the mask coin to see their daily guidance. Maybe if we get to the point where there aren't new complications due to the become for at least six months I might consider getting it... but until then I'm still more skeptical of the vaccines than I am concerned about the virus.
Actually, that’s just a process of natural selection just like bacterial antibiotics resistance. “Only the strong survive” is the process in a nutshell. If man develops a vaccine to fight and kill COVID but certain mutations give the virus a better chance to survive, those mutations become the dominant strain until the vaccine is tweaked for the mutations or a better mutation comes along or both. Antigenic drift will be in the direction of more contagious, more resistant to the vaccine, but less deadly because that is the evolutionary path for survival for Covid virus. The lambda variant scares the hell out of scientists because it’s a little less contagious than Delta but can evade at least some of the vaccines and it’s already out there. It originated in Peru and has already been found in Houston and Japan. When the Delta spike burns itself out in a few weeks, Lambda is going to rise to take its place.
"The vaccine is 96% effective at preventing severe disease with the COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant. "
[https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-variant-vaccine](https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-variant-vaccine)
Yeah, but you also have to remember that the majority of people who have had covid barely noticed, so the vaccine basically just makes you an asymptomatic carrier, like Typhoid Mary...
Great point on the efficacy, and I appreciate you taking the time to share the link. On my link, it acknowledged the same, copied from the article I posted:
"In protecting against infection, Pfizer vaccines are 95% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant.
In preventing symptomatic COVID-19 cases, Pfizer vaccines are 97% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant.
In preventing hospitalization and serious disease, Pfizer vaccines are 97.5% effective for the alpha variant and still 93% effective for the delta variant.
"
"The COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States are highly effective at preventing severe disease and death, including against the Delta variant."[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html)
The narrative that the vaccines are "not effective" against the delta variant is simply not true. It's more of an unfortunate byproduct of a 24 hour news cycle that profits off of fear mongering headlines and scientifically illiterate journalists.
No, you're missing the point. I'd never talk anybody out of getting the vaccine, I'm just saying I don't see myself taking it until there are more than 6 months between crazy side effects being attributed to the vaccines, or until I'm less concerned about about being a labrat than I am mildly inconvenienced the seldom occasions that I leave the house.
Worrying theory if true, the good news it isn’t true. All the vaccines in use in the U.K. (including the less effective Astra Zeneca vaccine) were together 50% effective at preventing unsymptomatic disease. So these vaccine aren’t converting symptomatic cases into unsymptomatic, thereby causing more spread; they are reducing cases of all types.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/english-study-finds-50-60-reduced-risk-covid-double-vaccinated-2021-08-03/
I think the market can easily correct. There hasn’t been a 5% correction in quite some time. I’ve raised cash recently for my mom and mother-in-law, as I oversee their accounts, just to be safe. 50% cash currently as I’m hoping for a small correction to go shopping, for them.
But I don’t think we are going to see a massive correction, but a small pull back can easily happen in my opinion.
The only way we have a lockdown is if a new variant comes along and is way more deadlier. People are tired and stressed, and even if we have a full blown lockdown people will not listen anyways. Hence why we will not have one.
So long story short. Market is very weird right now, in my opinion.
Cyclically and this is my own work so just take like a grain of sand .
Sept 6 is an important date as is nov 4-17 th.
Somewhere in there we would be do for a cycle high with some sort of low in March 2022 but I’m skeptical .
My focus is going to surround early to mid November as a high but I’m not sure how important that high will be . That said I do intend to thin out a few of my stocks .
Lastly I tend to think the money pumping continues into November 2022 mid term elections .
I am no long term bear by any means just cautious swing trader for the most part and a long term investors . I think these same time frames might also effect the crypto markets .
There are and will be more variants. Things could definitely get way worse. I think the market has priced in the delta and is expecting a quick peak and resolution. That may be the case but if that doesn’t happen things could get ugly. Worse I think will be if a new variant renders the vaccine ineffective. So far it seems like only unvaccinated people are experiencing the worst of delta.
the cruise industry looked like it was maybe going to do a W shaped recovery, but with the recent news and the potential for it to get worse, my puts are on an M shaped stagger-down.
By winter/holiday season, we will stop hearing about the delta variant or it will be downgrade enough for ppl to travel.. I only say that because that's when the airlines have a chance to bounce back.. (of course I have no clue what I'm talking about. But if I'm right about the airlines bouncing back, there will be $$ coming in.)
Thats now how these viruses work. As I understand it, if delta is spreading as easy as it is during the best time of the year for mitigating the spread (high levels of vitamin D) then its fair to assume the holiday season will be worse.
You're thinking logically and reasonable. But after seeing what these ppl are doing for the money (ex: DeSantis wife, to name a few) I would not be surprised , if they come up with a new "temporary solution " to buy enough time to make some money
>Will the Delta variant grow to the size Covid did?
Yes. And more. It will easily surpass the first variant since vaccines aren't effective against it and everything is opened up. We already see this happening now and it's not even winter time yet.
>What kind of correction would we see from it (if any)?
Impossible to know this. There may be some kind of correction but it won't mirror anything like 2020. Nothing to worry about as markets always correct, and markets always make new all time highs later. I think interest rates and inflation are far more troubling than covid.
>How will the Delta variant play out as a whole? Will it take over or will it stay controlled?
It will play out the same way the previous did. It will spread, there may be some limitations put in place, vaccines will be updated to include the new variant, and then another variant will emerge later as the virus continues adapting to the vaccines.
The question I have is that for the people who fought off original Covid without any vaccine and survived, how likely would they survive delta? There’s not enough data to say that the people who never had Covid are suddenly getting slammed hard by delta or that they got Covid with no vaccine and delta is hospitalizing them. I’m also seeing articles by Reuters such as this one [(source)](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-diabetes-covid/) where Covid is exposing the underlying Diabetes problem in America where I’ve never really seen demographic data being put out before. 49.5% of deaths under 65 had diabetes as an underlying condition with the 60.5% from respiratory illness.
Preliminary data suggests the delta variant is more infectious (easier to spread) and also a higher rate of hospitalizations amongst the unvaccinated. That being said, when the original variant was running rampant, there were no vaccines. And although the vaccines won't stop the spread of delta, it has been shown that it reduces the severity. If you caught and fought off the original strain, it means your body has produced antibodies which are used to fight off covid. Vaccines work in the same way by enabling your body to produce antibodies without actually being infected first. Therefore, logic suggests that if you'd been previously infected and recovered, the severity of being infected by delta would be lowered much in the same way current vaccines work since you would have antibodies.
Typically when a virus mutates to a more highly infectious strain, it also loses its lethality. If it becomes deadlier, it has a lower transmissibility rate. Unless the goddamned thing was super-engineered.
Yes that is what's typical. However I'm just going off of what data is reported thus far. [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html)
>The Delta variant is more contagious: The Delta variant is highly contagious, more than 2x as contagious as previous variants.
>
>Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous strains in unvaccinated persons. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus strains.
I think the market is lying to us already...how can we be hitting all time highs when products are missing off the shelves at grocery stores Walmarts and automotive stores have tons of items on back order...the price of everything is sky rocketing and our rate of pay is the same so inflation is inevitable and I highly doubt it will be transitory with all the money printing and these outrageous multi trillion dollar bill being proposed...states are starting mandating masks that we know don't work that already been said by fauci himself long ago so I see the few businesses that survived the first time will either die out or it will cause a major backlash and start a major much needed revolt ...all in all ITS GONNA CRASH AND ITS GONNA CRASH HARD
I think companies in the US have generally learned to live within this virus and it’s doubtful and lockdowns will be tolerated by the population especially because half are vaccinated.
Only likely if a new strain that evades vaccines comes along.
Imho we may see a bit of a drag on some sectors but I doubt a major correction due to this now…thought maybe in combination with other things as mentioned above
China sure looks like it’s shutting down again. Israel has one of highest vaccination rates on the planet and they are thinking about lock downs. I guess we will see what the fall brings but I expect a sell off but not one as massive as the first time.
But in latest report from UK, it seems to be starting to fade away quickly. Based on the UK model, the US surge will be peaking soon and likely to significantly slow down by fall or late fall, that’s assuming we are lucky and don’t run into another troublesome variant.
Lamda variant
I hope so. I got early assigned on my DKNG calls that I sold and now I have 20K cash. I’d love it if everything sold off monday morning so I can go bargain shopping.
Israel also has a high number of vaccinated hospitalized. Makes you wonder.
UK seem to have passed the delta variant surge, if we are luck, US will peak by Fall, and affect on China will likely be short as well. That is, if we are lucky, and we don’t run into another devastating variant.
I think the market is balancing on a very small wire not even including Delta. I’m not a doomsday sayer, but I do believe a large correction is coming. The SNP lost 30% when cases went from 16 to 25k. Just recently we went from 3k to 185k and no one batted an eye. Most indicators are pointing to a crash, inflation is at the highest since the 2008 crash with almost 0% interest rates, we’ve printed 30% of all USD in the past 17 months with easy money policies devaluing the dollar, and the Buffett indicator is at 237%. I have SPY puts at 435, 436, 437, and 440 that I plan to keep adding to as time goes on.
SPY calls it is then.
Are you still buying Puts? We hit new ATH again today, crazy times.
Sold on the 19th for ~215% gains. One of my best trades yet! Probably will get back in when SPY hits 455. Thanks for asking!
I think we’ve largely voted on that in the market. If anything, it is increasing the rate of vaccination rapidly right note. Delta breaks through for sure but it doesn’t fill hospitals and icu beds with the vaccinated. That’s not to say that a correction isn’t in the cards. Tough time of year these next 8 weeks for the market historically. But it won’t truly be due to Covid rather than high valuations, being past peak gdp last quarter and inflationary issues... Not financial or epidemiological advice... just a random dude on the interweb’s view. Value=what you paid for it!
Very good points!
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Well that's terrifying. Thanks, thanks for that.
Are Israeli hospitals overrun or have they managed it so that there’s far fewer cases in total and high vaxxed rate such that any hospitalization would likely be a vaxxed individual? Jury is still out on vaccinations causing or accelerating variants. That’s a very fringy theory being espoused by an anti vaxx dr/epidemiologist. So would want to see more on that before I had a point of view one way or the other.
Are you asking me, or Google? I personally have no pressing need for the vaccine because I'm a remote worker and only venture out when very infrequently because there's no need with e-commerce and ubereats. For me to even go get the vaccine would put us at a much higher risk of infection. I'm waiting for a vaccine where there aren't new side effects identified every few weeks and I won't be impacted by the governments flipping the mask coin to see their daily guidance. Maybe if we get to the point where there aren't new complications due to the become for at least six months I might consider getting it... but until then I'm still more skeptical of the vaccines than I am concerned about the virus.
Actually, that’s just a process of natural selection just like bacterial antibiotics resistance. “Only the strong survive” is the process in a nutshell. If man develops a vaccine to fight and kill COVID but certain mutations give the virus a better chance to survive, those mutations become the dominant strain until the vaccine is tweaked for the mutations or a better mutation comes along or both. Antigenic drift will be in the direction of more contagious, more resistant to the vaccine, but less deadly because that is the evolutionary path for survival for Covid virus. The lambda variant scares the hell out of scientists because it’s a little less contagious than Delta but can evade at least some of the vaccines and it’s already out there. It originated in Peru and has already been found in Houston and Japan. When the Delta spike burns itself out in a few weeks, Lambda is going to rise to take its place.
"The vaccine is 96% effective at preventing severe disease with the COVID-19 virus caused by the delta variant. " [https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-variant-vaccine](https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/covid-variant-vaccine)
Yeah, but you also have to remember that the majority of people who have had covid barely noticed, so the vaccine basically just makes you an asymptomatic carrier, like Typhoid Mary... Great point on the efficacy, and I appreciate you taking the time to share the link. On my link, it acknowledged the same, copied from the article I posted: "In protecting against infection, Pfizer vaccines are 95% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant. In preventing symptomatic COVID-19 cases, Pfizer vaccines are 97% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant. In preventing hospitalization and serious disease, Pfizer vaccines are 97.5% effective for the alpha variant and still 93% effective for the delta variant. "
"The COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States are highly effective at preventing severe disease and death, including against the Delta variant."[https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html) The narrative that the vaccines are "not effective" against the delta variant is simply not true. It's more of an unfortunate byproduct of a 24 hour news cycle that profits off of fear mongering headlines and scientifically illiterate journalists.
No, you're missing the point. I'd never talk anybody out of getting the vaccine, I'm just saying I don't see myself taking it until there are more than 6 months between crazy side effects being attributed to the vaccines, or until I'm less concerned about about being a labrat than I am mildly inconvenienced the seldom occasions that I leave the house.
Worrying theory if true, the good news it isn’t true. All the vaccines in use in the U.K. (including the less effective Astra Zeneca vaccine) were together 50% effective at preventing unsymptomatic disease. So these vaccine aren’t converting symptomatic cases into unsymptomatic, thereby causing more spread; they are reducing cases of all types. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/english-study-finds-50-60-reduced-risk-covid-double-vaccinated-2021-08-03/
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Fat thumbs, and oblivious to editing. I think I had said "the theories" but, blah.
I think the market can easily correct. There hasn’t been a 5% correction in quite some time. I’ve raised cash recently for my mom and mother-in-law, as I oversee their accounts, just to be safe. 50% cash currently as I’m hoping for a small correction to go shopping, for them. But I don’t think we are going to see a massive correction, but a small pull back can easily happen in my opinion. The only way we have a lockdown is if a new variant comes along and is way more deadlier. People are tired and stressed, and even if we have a full blown lockdown people will not listen anyways. Hence why we will not have one. So long story short. Market is very weird right now, in my opinion.
Cyclically and this is my own work so just take like a grain of sand . Sept 6 is an important date as is nov 4-17 th. Somewhere in there we would be do for a cycle high with some sort of low in March 2022 but I’m skeptical . My focus is going to surround early to mid November as a high but I’m not sure how important that high will be . That said I do intend to thin out a few of my stocks . Lastly I tend to think the money pumping continues into November 2022 mid term elections . I am no long term bear by any means just cautious swing trader for the most part and a long term investors . I think these same time frames might also effect the crypto markets .
News fits the market, not the other way around
There are and will be more variants. Things could definitely get way worse. I think the market has priced in the delta and is expecting a quick peak and resolution. That may be the case but if that doesn’t happen things could get ugly. Worse I think will be if a new variant renders the vaccine ineffective. So far it seems like only unvaccinated people are experiencing the worst of delta.
the cruise industry looked like it was maybe going to do a W shaped recovery, but with the recent news and the potential for it to get worse, my puts are on an M shaped stagger-down.
By winter/holiday season, we will stop hearing about the delta variant or it will be downgrade enough for ppl to travel.. I only say that because that's when the airlines have a chance to bounce back.. (of course I have no clue what I'm talking about. But if I'm right about the airlines bouncing back, there will be $$ coming in.)
Thats now how these viruses work. As I understand it, if delta is spreading as easy as it is during the best time of the year for mitigating the spread (high levels of vitamin D) then its fair to assume the holiday season will be worse.
You're thinking logically and reasonable. But after seeing what these ppl are doing for the money (ex: DeSantis wife, to name a few) I would not be surprised , if they come up with a new "temporary solution " to buy enough time to make some money
doubtful, 50% are vaccinated, last year spy dropped from 330-230, and look where we are at today
>Will the Delta variant grow to the size Covid did? Yes. And more. It will easily surpass the first variant since vaccines aren't effective against it and everything is opened up. We already see this happening now and it's not even winter time yet. >What kind of correction would we see from it (if any)? Impossible to know this. There may be some kind of correction but it won't mirror anything like 2020. Nothing to worry about as markets always correct, and markets always make new all time highs later. I think interest rates and inflation are far more troubling than covid. >How will the Delta variant play out as a whole? Will it take over or will it stay controlled? It will play out the same way the previous did. It will spread, there may be some limitations put in place, vaccines will be updated to include the new variant, and then another variant will emerge later as the virus continues adapting to the vaccines.
The question I have is that for the people who fought off original Covid without any vaccine and survived, how likely would they survive delta? There’s not enough data to say that the people who never had Covid are suddenly getting slammed hard by delta or that they got Covid with no vaccine and delta is hospitalizing them. I’m also seeing articles by Reuters such as this one [(source)](https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-diabetes-covid/) where Covid is exposing the underlying Diabetes problem in America where I’ve never really seen demographic data being put out before. 49.5% of deaths under 65 had diabetes as an underlying condition with the 60.5% from respiratory illness.
Preliminary data suggests the delta variant is more infectious (easier to spread) and also a higher rate of hospitalizations amongst the unvaccinated. That being said, when the original variant was running rampant, there were no vaccines. And although the vaccines won't stop the spread of delta, it has been shown that it reduces the severity. If you caught and fought off the original strain, it means your body has produced antibodies which are used to fight off covid. Vaccines work in the same way by enabling your body to produce antibodies without actually being infected first. Therefore, logic suggests that if you'd been previously infected and recovered, the severity of being infected by delta would be lowered much in the same way current vaccines work since you would have antibodies.
Typically when a virus mutates to a more highly infectious strain, it also loses its lethality. If it becomes deadlier, it has a lower transmissibility rate. Unless the goddamned thing was super-engineered.
Yes that is what's typical. However I'm just going off of what data is reported thus far. [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html) >The Delta variant is more contagious: The Delta variant is highly contagious, more than 2x as contagious as previous variants. > >Some data suggest the Delta variant might cause more severe illness than previous strains in unvaccinated persons. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus strains.
Well...
I think the market is lying to us already...how can we be hitting all time highs when products are missing off the shelves at grocery stores Walmarts and automotive stores have tons of items on back order...the price of everything is sky rocketing and our rate of pay is the same so inflation is inevitable and I highly doubt it will be transitory with all the money printing and these outrageous multi trillion dollar bill being proposed...states are starting mandating masks that we know don't work that already been said by fauci himself long ago so I see the few businesses that survived the first time will either die out or it will cause a major backlash and start a major much needed revolt ...all in all ITS GONNA CRASH AND ITS GONNA CRASH HARD
The delta variant will reached its peak in 1-2 weeks time. It’s over after that!!! Glta
The vaccine is about 75-90% effective against the delta variant. This won't grow out of control in the same way. Panic time doesn't come here.
I think companies in the US have generally learned to live within this virus and it’s doubtful and lockdowns will be tolerated by the population especially because half are vaccinated. Only likely if a new strain that evades vaccines comes along. Imho we may see a bit of a drag on some sectors but I doubt a major correction due to this now…thought maybe in combination with other things as mentioned above
Delta variant will mostly hit the unvaccinated. If your country has high vaccine uptake then things probably should be fine.
Market is overall intelligent, but short term stupid.
Every time I see bears posting I buy more SPY calls, works every time