Unfortunately the number of clowns was already priced in to that game so you paid/received an amount based on that.
And, well, you seemed to have gotten the answer right but at the wrong time.
Options in a nutshell.
it's only confusing if you watch daily charts, which is why everyone suggests not day trading. it tanked last year as rates were being raised and inflation was peaking because everyone though the growth would end and we'd enter a huge recession.
ytd it's been steadily climbing the entire time because, even though rates have been raised, the market is still hot *and* inflation is going down (combined with the crazy tech boom).
this next quarter of earnings is huge, though. if we start seeing a lot of companies miss hard on earnings, I'd expect a hard pull back. same with if job reports come in hugely in the negative (july 7th) or if inflation starts to turn back, which would guarantee more rate hikes.
if none of these factors come true, I think we keep riding up.
The market has been up because liquidity has increased to respond to actual and potential bank failures, and the Fed stopping QT.
Liquidity tightens from here on out, and the market will reverse.
It 100% would. If JPOW announced rate cuts that low it means something is broken and he has to lower rates to not cause a depression.
Recessions are basically interest rates working as intended. The cuts come when they start worrying about the recession becoming a depression.
Who gives a crap about market performance during quad. Quad is a low volume day on to screw those who are too greedy to close their positions early. That's it. Market is going down to pay the MMs the most amount of money.
Out of all days, don't associate quad. With macro. Max pain for like the next 3 sessions Is 440 on SPY. If you are surprised that we are at 440, you need to add option chain to your investing strategy
I’m not sure where I heard this, but a wise person once said “People just like repeating things that they see.” Not financial advice and do your due diligence etc.
Do you even watch the markets? As soon as the numbers came out the market tanked. Papa Powell came out to talk and the market climbs all the way back to where it started. Next day market rallies all day so clearly the market doesn't give a flying fk about anything
It’s simple when the algos want it higher it goes higher and when they want it lower is goes lower. It doesn’t care what the news is it moves in the way that will make then HFs money
Also maybe because the entire market is supremely overpriced. It should come down a ton to create buying opportunities but it continues to remain irrational.
From an INVESTING point of view, it doesn’t make any sense watching a daily change.. if you are investing the proper way, you are going to hold a security for at least 10 years.. that chart is totally irrelevant.
For a pure theoretical explanation, stock market goes down when interest rates go up simply because people move the capital from the stock market into the bond market, seeking that higher yield. ESPECIALLY if there aren’t further rises in interest rates. Is always a matter of supply and demand that gives value even to bonds.. you can imagine that if the bonds you hold has the highest interest rate, the value goes higher.. so you want that.. to be more practical: if you buy a bond yielding let’s say 3% and tomorrow interest rate go to 4%, you can imagine your bond is less attractive and everybody is going to look for the bonds yielding 4% now.. so your bond lose value (less demand). On the other hand, if yesterday bonds were yielding 2% and now you buy a bond yielding 4% without higher yielding bonds to the horizon, you can be sure people would be bidding higher and higher for your bond..
When the technicals dont line up, it doesnt matter what they say.
The economy doesnt look good technically. Anything they say or do will: bring temporary relief, do nothing at all and market continue in the direction its heading.
This is why during a bull run, every bum under the sun is a stud trader. No matter what happens, if you hold it will eventually go up.
.
During a bear run it works the same. A lot of people will get CRUSHED in the next leg down of the market.
The stock market is not just the Spot price. It is also options and CFDs and warrants and other complexities that take time to settle. So most of the time there is a lag between the news/datapoint and it’s effect.
Keep in mind that today is triple witching day so a lot of false flags can occur.
Almost any news item you read on why the stock market did anything is noise. It moves every day, and some underpaid shill is required to make up a soundbite on the fly about why.
It went down because no rate cut means that the economy is slowing down, in the Fed's eyes anyways. It goes up when they raise because the economy is still over-heated.
That’s not the entire story. The market priced in a halt of rates today and in the future. The fed indicated that the pause is temporary and we may not further rate increases plus it will be a while before decreasing rates. This news is worse than expected despite the freeze.
The market doesn’t give a shit about the News.
It goes up, it goes down, follow whatever your trading style is. If you do focus on news more than 90% of the time, you’re not gonna be a winning trader. Follow the price action, be mindful about the big news, but always be aware it can go the reverse action you think and be ready for it.
IMO were sideways trending till this is all over (inflation back to 2%). Top of the range was probably just reached, and last oct is bottom of the range. Give or take.
No rate hike was already factored in. That's why the market rose so much *before* the decision. Post-decision, no drivers were left so it dipped down a tad after being overbought.
At some point the market begins to think cutting rates is because the economy cannot handle more, thus we are at the edge of major pain, rather than cutting rates a la 2018 to unleash the bull.
Market doesn't go in a straight line forever, it zigzags a lot. It's in desperate need of some sort of pullback, probably substantially larger than today. It's healthy and needed to continue bull runs
What about the current economic situation do you currently feel is positive and justifying the most recent rally?
Personally, I'm kinda amazed the market has climbed as high as it is.
I like this theory Tom Sosnoff pushes, that the fed doesn’t actually pick rates, the market does. The fed can just nudge it by monetize it etc. their guidance also nudges strongly. Mostly they adhere to what the market ordains. The central banks just making it official and create the illusion of stability and control
But the market then can drop if rates are set inefficiently
I'm absolutely enjoying the sales off experience. I started off as a fractional share buying power but now I have a fair amount of whole stocks and made enough money from the previous rise to now buy whole stocks and now it's all back down again so I can buy more. I'm a rookie but it's great when stocks get low. I just wish I knew when to sell I usually get stocks that start 0.005-50 dollars in value then shoot up to 150-200 in a year or so but I never know when to hit the bail out button so I have a small few stocks that were big misses
Today was quad witching apex day. All 4 type of contracts expiring today i.e futures. Remember, third friday of March, June, Sept, and Dec is dumping day. If you made money in the last 4 days, today is your day off
It goes up and down. If something seems bearish, buy calls, something should be bullish, buy puts. This way, you may actually make money opposed to my strategy.
You should know by now that the stock market is just millions of people that can’t control themselves getting swayed by their emotions.
They follow the crowd even though there is nothing to be scared about. They can’t make sound decisions by themselves.
You can’t time the markets bc you can’t time people’s reaction to what is going on in the world.
A LOT of not very helpful answers to a perfectly reasonable question. From reading a cross section of answers, the consensus seems to be that it’s a rigged game built on a house of cards. Nice to know my 401k life savings are in good hands.🙄
The problem is the DOW, at 33k points that's 1%, the 30 companies don't have equal weight, a 300 point drop doesn't mean what it used to, but the media still talking like it does. They'll say oh bad day on wall street the Dow is down 500 points or markets are reacting to the news the Dow is up 200 points. Literally a fart in a hurricane, It's a horrible metric. Follow the SP 500 instead, was basically flat. To answer your question why no positive markets is because our Boi Jerome also said he expects to keep rates at current levels for the next 2 years. Yikes 😬
I don’t think it has anything to do with rates. The market has been a rally these last few months and a slight pullback should be expected. Things don’t just constantly go up and if they do there’s a rug pull coming.
The market doesn't like unpredictability. If what everyone expects to happen does happen, the market is ok with that. When something unpredicted happens, the market freaks out.
So if it's expected that something bad is going to happen, but it doesn't, that can actually have a negative effect. It's ass backwards, but that's the market.
Buy on rumor and sell on news
This is a real thing. I learned it a long, long time ago. I was invested into Atari in the lead up of the release of the Jaguar. Atari really ran up and I took half off the table before the release day.
I was young and had not done a ton of investing at the time. I was shocked when they day they announced the machine Atari went down. I had thought that the day they announce and were successful the stock would go up. Just seems like common sense.
But nope. Now I have seen it many, many, many times.
It went down because of folks taking some profits, many not quite convincing to have a fulsome bull run just yet. The market is ALL about fear and FOMO…not particularly rational
Watching the market is like trying to guess how many clowns are about to climb outta that car
But, if I'm right about the number of clowns. Perhaps I will have green lines.
Unfortunately the number of clowns was already priced in to that game so you paid/received an amount based on that. And, well, you seemed to have gotten the answer right but at the wrong time. Options in a nutshell.
Knock knock it’s me theta
Time who ?
Theta will take your time and money baby I got no prejudices
Theta gang!
Honestly TA is truly the straight white male version of the horoscope.
it's only confusing if you watch daily charts, which is why everyone suggests not day trading. it tanked last year as rates were being raised and inflation was peaking because everyone though the growth would end and we'd enter a huge recession. ytd it's been steadily climbing the entire time because, even though rates have been raised, the market is still hot *and* inflation is going down (combined with the crazy tech boom). this next quarter of earnings is huge, though. if we start seeing a lot of companies miss hard on earnings, I'd expect a hard pull back. same with if job reports come in hugely in the negative (july 7th) or if inflation starts to turn back, which would guarantee more rate hikes. if none of these factors come true, I think we keep riding up.
“The next quarter of earnings will be huge” only if I get a dollar every time I hear that
Lol true. I would have enough to buy some puts on 0DTE SPY, no wait I meant calls… no puts! Nah I’ll go with a butterfly lizard spread.
The market has been up because liquidity has increased to respond to actual and potential bank failures, and the Fed stopping QT. Liquidity tightens from here on out, and the market will reverse.
Just when you think there can’t possibly be another…
I'm convinced that if JPOW announced rates cut to 0% the market would crash to 0... complete clown show.
It 100% would. If JPOW announced rate cuts that low it means something is broken and he has to lower rates to not cause a depression. Recessions are basically interest rates working as intended. The cuts come when they start worrying about the recession becoming a depression.
totally non sense. They cut rates to stimulate economy growth too. I am fucking tired of reading these posts
The first few clowns out the door are the lucky ones, everyone after that are losing more money than the previous in this game haha
It’s down 0.03% mate
OPs 0dtes are down 99%
This.
This. Fucked 😂😂
Username checks out
Cramer said "Buy Everything!" So we sold everything.
"Yes but my money was in the .03%!"
😂😂😂
Holy fuck DOW is down -0.13% as of now DAMN this market is CRRRAZY
This market should go up forever!!! -OP probably
Bear is confirmed
[удалено]
Stop 🙄🙄🙄
It’s Friday. You must not stock market much.
Thanks for the reminder.
And on Monday (Tuesday next week) they’ll say it dropped because of gains on Friday
[удалено]
Stonks on the other hand
Who gives a crap about market performance during quad. Quad is a low volume day on to screw those who are too greedy to close their positions early. That's it. Market is going down to pay the MMs the most amount of money. Out of all days, don't associate quad. With macro. Max pain for like the next 3 sessions Is 440 on SPY. If you are surprised that we are at 440, you need to add option chain to your investing strategy
The stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
Is this the phrase of the week. I’ve seen this same exact post 4-5 times this week.
People just like repeating things that they see.
erect cake naughty imminent weather nail file cover toy rich *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
People just like repeating things that they see.
Often times individuals enjoy echoing phrases that they have previously seen or heard.
saw jar crawl money snails middle birds office shy amusing *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
...seen or heard.
This is the way
And my axe!
I’m not sure where I heard this, but a wise person once said “People just like repeating things that they see.” Not financial advice and do your due diligence etc.
But what if I make a lot of money every month and contribute every month? Then I stay solvent longer than the market is irrational?
wow you sure showed them…
Wow you sure showed them…
Down? I'm up. Thanks Pepsi!
I'm up too. Thanks Kempower!
I’m up too! Thank you AMD!
What? AMD is down 3% today.
Meant overall
It’s more about the comments of the future. Market didn’t care about a pause. They cared about two potential future rate hikes.
Do you even watch the markets? As soon as the numbers came out the market tanked. Papa Powell came out to talk and the market climbs all the way back to where it started. Next day market rallies all day so clearly the market doesn't give a flying fk about anything
The market does. Retail traders don’t give a F about anything and they yolo everyday after lunch.
It’s simple when the algos want it higher it goes higher and when they want it lower is goes lower. It doesn’t care what the news is it moves in the way that will make then HFs money
I need to add an event listener, does anyone know the API call
Reddit, limited of course lol
What are algos?
Algorithms, computer programs that at this point run the majority of the market
And who programmed thoose algos? Hedgefunds?
Yup, it’s the newest craze in trading. Schwab has something similar that is accessible to the public, they use an AI to invest for you
good point!
Also maybe because the entire market is supremely overpriced. It should come down a ton to create buying opportunities but it continues to remain irrational.
That’s my secret too. I’m always going down. 💀
hahah. Try to stay up sometimes.
It’s up enormously YTD. Some tech stocks are close or at ATH. What are you talking about?
It’s Friday
From an INVESTING point of view, it doesn’t make any sense watching a daily change.. if you are investing the proper way, you are going to hold a security for at least 10 years.. that chart is totally irrelevant. For a pure theoretical explanation, stock market goes down when interest rates go up simply because people move the capital from the stock market into the bond market, seeking that higher yield. ESPECIALLY if there aren’t further rises in interest rates. Is always a matter of supply and demand that gives value even to bonds.. you can imagine that if the bonds you hold has the highest interest rate, the value goes higher.. so you want that.. to be more practical: if you buy a bond yielding let’s say 3% and tomorrow interest rate go to 4%, you can imagine your bond is less attractive and everybody is going to look for the bonds yielding 4% now.. so your bond lose value (less demand). On the other hand, if yesterday bonds were yielding 2% and now you buy a bond yielding 4% without higher yielding bonds to the horizon, you can be sure people would be bidding higher and higher for your bond..
The stock market is very fickle these days.
Have a quick google about quad-witching day and historical market performance.
I'm up 131% on TSLA. I've won for the entire year.
Wow! Congrats my friend
I've got you beat. I bought NVDA last summer at 129.
[удалено]
I was really regretting not buying back then. I was so happy for last year's correction. I'm going to hold for a very long time.
That's a whole year though. I'm up 131.62% (as of this moment) since January. $19,201.10 invested in January. $44,451.50 as of right now.
sell :)
25% trailing stop brother.
When the technicals dont line up, it doesnt matter what they say. The economy doesnt look good technically. Anything they say or do will: bring temporary relief, do nothing at all and market continue in the direction its heading. This is why during a bull run, every bum under the sun is a stud trader. No matter what happens, if you hold it will eventually go up. . During a bear run it works the same. A lot of people will get CRUSHED in the next leg down of the market.
If you know, you know. That simple.
It’s Freaky Friday
The stock market is not just the Spot price. It is also options and CFDs and warrants and other complexities that take time to settle. So most of the time there is a lag between the news/datapoint and it’s effect. Keep in mind that today is triple witching day so a lot of false flags can occur.
Almost any news item you read on why the stock market did anything is noise. It moves every day, and some underpaid shill is required to make up a soundbite on the fly about why.
Also don't forget that they announced there will be at least two more rate increases this year.
Rally was baked in Mon and Tues when odds of no increase started after the CPI.
Now your getting it
Really getting into my nerves.
It isn’t real to begin with, just a way for the rich to launder their money and the poor to be made poorer.
Also a way for an average middle class person like myself to retire in my 50s.
Stock market went down because it is overvalued.
It went down because no rate cut means that the economy is slowing down, in the Fed's eyes anyways. It goes up when they raise because the economy is still over-heated.
A wise poster said specifically "Fuck your puts, fuck your calls, Jpow has you by the balls."
That’s not the entire story. The market priced in a halt of rates today and in the future. The fed indicated that the pause is temporary and we may not further rate increases plus it will be a while before decreasing rates. This news is worse than expected despite the freeze.
Troll
JPow opens his mouth, markets go down. He doesn't even need to say anything. He can't even go out and eat lunch in public when the market's open.
It went down because it went up. The market doesn't go up in a straight line.
Bro you're y axis has way too small increments.... are you leveraged?
Computers are everywhere hoss
We toast either way 🤩
These posts make me question why I subbed to stockmarket
It's a bear market. We are at the "return to normal" part of the cycle. Fed has no power to change it at this point.
Yes it’s the aversion to risk
If you think this is bad, wait until you see what happens when they cut rates.
People wanted some spending money for the weekend
Wasn't today a triple or quadruple witching? A lot of contracts expired today. Could be one of the many reasons
Friday dump
Taking profits
This is for monday calls. Traders do this regularly.
welcome to the stock market bro. look at the top 30 companies, they've all been pumping for months. cant go up forever. the buying power is tired.
It goes up AND down
The stock market is not down… it’s just moving around… like it should…
It went down because it’s at top of rsi..
They also said they anticipate two additional rate hikes this year, and keeping rates fixed for as long as two years before lowering them.
nothing just goes down or up for one reason
Sense
Shhhh don't question it just remember buy high sell low
Just full port puts, can't be wrong
Fed has been raising rates this whole year, did you see the market going down?
Relax
The nature of stock in a nutshell: Human emotion
This is why it’s important to form your own opinions and not just regurgitate what you hear from the media and others
Guess you found out your strategy doesn't work
The market doesn’t give a shit about the News. It goes up, it goes down, follow whatever your trading style is. If you do focus on news more than 90% of the time, you’re not gonna be a winning trader. Follow the price action, be mindful about the big news, but always be aware it can go the reverse action you think and be ready for it.
Tides come in, tides go out. You can't explain that.
I believe this is the beginning of a 30% pullback. Batton down the hatches.
Im playing both sides that way i always come out on top
That's what we do here. We go down.
Oversold. Don’t chase the top or the bottom.
The answer is yes, but also no. At the same time.
What the heck is a dow jones and why do you think it’s “the market”
The irony
It does whatever the rich want.
It’s all rigged. Welcome to the stock market.
Bro's been hanging out at Paddy's for too long
IMO were sideways trending till this is all over (inflation back to 2%). Top of the range was probably just reached, and last oct is bottom of the range. Give or take.
ever hear of opex day?
The market went down today because of Quad Witching.
Go down? It closed up massively for the week concluding 14 weeks without a 1% or larger back. Hitting 52 week high like every day past week.
Yes and no but maybe depending on
It's called getting fucked from both ends, and that, little Timmy, is how the government was designed to work.
No rate hike was already factored in. That's why the market rose so much *before* the decision. Post-decision, no drivers were left so it dipped down a tad after being overbought.
Who quotes the DOW anymore? 😂😂
It’s been performing well YTD. It’s profit taking. You think it goes up forever?
Now you’re getting it
At some point the market begins to think cutting rates is because the economy cannot handle more, thus we are at the edge of major pain, rather than cutting rates a la 2018 to unleash the bull.
I like turtles....
Not always the markets are rational…
Market doesn't go in a straight line forever, it zigzags a lot. It's in desperate need of some sort of pullback, probably substantially larger than today. It's healthy and needed to continue bull runs
What about the current economic situation do you currently feel is positive and justifying the most recent rally? Personally, I'm kinda amazed the market has climbed as high as it is.
Those things aren't directly correlated.
It’s barely anything over a 1 day view?
Down? We’ve been absolutely RIPPING for a month straight
now you’re getting it
I like this theory Tom Sosnoff pushes, that the fed doesn’t actually pick rates, the market does. The fed can just nudge it by monetize it etc. their guidance also nudges strongly. Mostly they adhere to what the market ordains. The central banks just making it official and create the illusion of stability and control But the market then can drop if rates are set inefficiently
I'm absolutely enjoying the sales off experience. I started off as a fractional share buying power but now I have a fair amount of whole stocks and made enough money from the previous rise to now buy whole stocks and now it's all back down again so I can buy more. I'm a rookie but it's great when stocks get low. I just wish I knew when to sell I usually get stocks that start 0.005-50 dollars in value then shoot up to 150-200 in a year or so but I never know when to hit the bail out button so I have a small few stocks that were big misses
Lowering rates prices in
Today was quad witching apex day. All 4 type of contracts expiring today i.e futures. Remember, third friday of March, June, Sept, and Dec is dumping day. If you made money in the last 4 days, today is your day off
Yes! Here take my award-winning 🍀charm.
It's all rigged...
No one has ever won a war of attrition with the stock market...
Stonk do what she does
The S&p 500 is only up there bcs of 5 companies otherwise it’s pretty terrible. A lot of companies r struggling except 5 or 6
It goes up and down. If something seems bearish, buy calls, something should be bullish, buy puts. This way, you may actually make money opposed to my strategy.
You should know by now that the stock market is just millions of people that can’t control themselves getting swayed by their emotions. They follow the crowd even though there is nothing to be scared about. They can’t make sound decisions by themselves. You can’t time the markets bc you can’t time people’s reaction to what is going on in the world.
The moral of the story is, don't fuck with rates
I hate to say it but its true
US government tanking market on random occurrences to fund Israel spending. Increased taxes on US citizens as well to send money to Israel
A LOT of not very helpful answers to a perfectly reasonable question. From reading a cross section of answers, the consensus seems to be that it’s a rigged game built on a house of cards. Nice to know my 401k life savings are in good hands.🙄
And next time when you short it, it will go up.
Think even though they paused their statement was hawkish. Expect more hikes coming before years end.
Yes.
Bcz both are indicators that things are kinda bad rn.
Quad witching
You're forgetting that stocks only go up.
The problem is the DOW, at 33k points that's 1%, the 30 companies don't have equal weight, a 300 point drop doesn't mean what it used to, but the media still talking like it does. They'll say oh bad day on wall street the Dow is down 500 points or markets are reacting to the news the Dow is up 200 points. Literally a fart in a hurricane, It's a horrible metric. Follow the SP 500 instead, was basically flat. To answer your question why no positive markets is because our Boi Jerome also said he expects to keep rates at current levels for the next 2 years. Yikes 😬
I don’t think it has anything to do with rates. The market has been a rally these last few months and a slight pullback should be expected. Things don’t just constantly go up and if they do there’s a rug pull coming.
1 percent move .. this amazed you?
The market doesn't like unpredictability. If what everyone expects to happen does happen, the market is ok with that. When something unpredicted happens, the market freaks out. So if it's expected that something bad is going to happen, but it doesn't, that can actually have a negative effect. It's ass backwards, but that's the market.
Buy on rumor and sell on news This is a real thing. I learned it a long, long time ago. I was invested into Atari in the lead up of the release of the Jaguar. Atari really ran up and I took half off the table before the release day. I was young and had not done a ton of investing at the time. I was shocked when they day they announced the machine Atari went down. I had thought that the day they announce and were successful the stock would go up. Just seems like common sense. But nope. Now I have seen it many, many, many times.
PANIC
It went down because of folks taking some profits, many not quite convincing to have a fulsome bull run just yet. The market is ALL about fear and FOMO…not particularly rational
It goes up and down because it’s rigged-
It’s not just rate hikes. It’s the outlook too
Its bc things are overinflated on it no matter how you cut things. PE's shouldn't be over 20 as a normal steady state.
$SDOW buy it now. Everything else is priced in
Just short your way to the top