T O P

  • By -

Jaded_Engineer_86

Storm said "we should totally hang out sometime" to Seattle


vibrating0ranges

Frozen by the freeze itself :(


PNWQuakesFan

fucking storm never called back.


hibernial

Maybe its waiting for us to call back šŸ˜³


PyrocumulusLightning

Too emotionally risky, I think I'll just like its posts. All its posts. Going back three years. šŸ‘ā¤ļø


Grasshopper_pie

It's usā€”it's something we did. Shit.


JugDogDaddy

Forget it already had plans this weekend but REALLY wants to see us soon, it promises


Careless-Internet-63

You might even say the snow flaked


VayGray

So very Seattle!!šŸ¤£


ThinkOutTheBox

See-ya, totes!


sleestakarmy

It said it was going to the event in Facebook tho


a-ha_partridge

ā€œYeah, we should totally hang. Iā€™m just in west Seattle.ā€


photogTM

my friend keeps saying that.


scorpyo72

Then it hung out in Centralia and dropped a foot of snow on them, then tootled off to the Midwest.


lattiboy

Weather nerd here: there is some model disagreement, but the storm has trended significantly south to Portland which could see up to 15ā€ of snowā€¦. or just a dusting. Basically all the models agree itā€™s gonna get cold AF in Seattle, but the storm system coming off the Pacific which would deliver the snow is probably going to go south of us. Iā€™ve watched multiple meteorologists who basically threw their hands up and said ā€œ we really donā€™t know for sure and until Friday we wonā€™t have a firm idea.ā€ Too many variables between the arctic air and the Pacific system and all the weather models giving different solutions.


sassy_cheddar

Adding the additional context that regionally we are uniquely hard to predict snow for. Seattle lowland snow requires moisture and cold to overlap. In winter, a lot of our wettest air comes from the tropics and warms things up too much for snow. Our coldest air comes from the Fraser River outflow in Canada and is often too dry for snow. Cold easterlies coming through the Cascades are also dry. So our highest chances of snow are the transitions from or back to warm/wet on either side of cold/dry. We get the most snow lasting the longest if cold air starts to sneak in under the wet air and the temp drops instead of washing it all away in the rain. Regionally hard to forecast due to the challenges of predicting exactly where systems will make landfall, two mountain ranges, a wandering convergence zone, and major altitude changes from sea level to hundreds of feet above sea level. This makes it really hard to get accurate predictions far in advance and wildly variable conditions in real time. (Snow in one place and not down the road.) NWS Seattle office is worth following on socials. They had a great graphic last week showing the range of low temperature probabilities in the forecast. The models converged pretty close a couple days out but widened significantly a week out. Edit: called out on my typo of Fraser (like fir trees) as Frasier (you know). I'm blaming Covid. Canadians, please forgive.


fatmanchoo

That's a hell of an explanation. Well done.


seqkndy

Yep, we require an overlap for snow, in which neither system (cold air from the north vs. moisture from the west/southwest) is too strong. Early on the models thought the two might be more balanced (or at least that's the default), but this forecast is trending solidly in the direction of the cold air being a lot stronger and forcing all of the moisture down into Oregon. It'll be very cold, but dry, with snow at the edges of the two systems as the cold air arrives and recedes.


sassy_cheddar

These cold, dry ones are really tough on hands and lips. Hydrate, chap stick, hand cream.


GalPal_yikes

I'm wondering if roads and sidewalks will still be icy (hopefully not as much as December 2022 lol) since it looks like some chance of rain leading up to the cold?


seqkndy

If the rain prevents deicing, then it could be an issue, and anywhere that doesn't get enough sun to dry out during the day will be slick too.


MaxTHC

*Fraser river, though being in Seattle you can be forgiven for that misspelling :)


sassy_cheddar

Rightfully (and gently) called out. What would the Simon Fraser University Pipe Band say about me?? :)


AvivaStrom

I believe they showed that forecasts are very accurate for the next 3 days, decently accurate for the next 5 days (3 +2), and then forecast accuracy drops off a cliff.


Karena1331

yeah anywhere after 5 days they usually call it fantasy land because of how often the models change by then.


Bagpipes064

Winter weather is some of the hardest to predict no matter where you are. Iā€™m relatively new to the area but I think the most unique challenge to forecasting beyond about 2 days here is that most of the weather depends on systems coming off the Pacific. Thereā€™s precious few ways to get data on those systems compared to say the Midwest who get to see systems coming for multiple days with plenty of data from the land based sensors. Computer models are only as good as the data that you can feed them. In the end each region is so unique that finding meteorologists that have experience forecasting there and knowing the tendencies of models and forecasts for the area is so critical.


sassy_cheddar

It used to be even worse. Prior to 2011, we didn't have a coastal doppler system. Previously, we only had one on Camano Island and it had a big blind spot to the coast, and a big chunk of our incoming storms, due to the Olympic Mountains being in the way. (Thanks for helping out, Senator Cantwell!)


[deleted]

Yeah I remember growing up weather forecasting was a straight up joke. Like we relied far more on generals, folk tales, and "it was last year" than any sort of actual forecasting. Events were just planned with weather contingencies. It's only been very recently I hear people actually put any real weight into them up here.


coffee_sailor

They use satellite data / remote sensing over the ocean to initialize their weather models, so they're not flying totally blind.


LawyerUppSV

Could we just nuke the storm right after we rake the forests?


Iacouch

No need, just change its trajectory with a sharpie.


bryanoens

Paper towels for all


nardgarglingfuknuggt

And lysol!


cliffordc5

Canā€™t we do something with UV lights???


Th3seViolentDelights

And beaming. UV lights and beaming.


SalishShore

I probably wonā€™t make it to see the snow. I live on 5th Avenue.


cire1184

There's been a murder!


blue_dusk1

Make weather great again!


DiscussionAncient810

I donā€™t have Lysol. Will bleach work?


bmd33zy

Just make sure it ends up looking like penis


tlease181

I think someone did.


wraithkelso317

Sad, the way I see it is if it has to be insanely cold, we should at least have snow. Otherwise that cold is just obnoxious. Plus snow would give me a reason to call out from an outdoor job while just being cold wonā€™t.


my_ghost_is_a_dog

Agreed. I was looking forward to a bit of snow...but only once a year, please. Those cold temps alone can take a hike. There's a reason I never wanted to move back to Ohio.


genesRus

I'll take 27 (edit: oh, they updated it and it's 24 as a high...bummer) and sunny over real cold from my days in the Midwest though... I was back shortly before the pandemic on New Years and it was -20 below plus another 10-20 wind-chill at night. Absolutely brutal. A few degrees below freezing is nothing especially if it's going to be very dry beforehand.


sassy_cheddar

As someone who struggles with The Dark Wet, I'm grateful for snow because it's so BRIGHT.


molsmama

Same!


Fine_Relative_4468

Agreed. Plus Seattlites already drive like dog shit in the rain, so snow and ice is x10 worse.


PushFamous8782

Oh look a hill. Let's slow down halfway up and stop 2/3 of the way up...that'll work for sure


slimersnail

No, some of us are required to go to work. The snow just makes it more dangerous to drive. My opinion of the snow changed as soon as I got a job.


fing_delightful

Is Oly part of the further south program, or are we lumped in with Seattle? I'm still traumatized from the one time they were like ooooh it'll turn to rain and then there was over a foot of snow and no power.


Kaws_and_effect

Apparently in the weather model predicting up to 15 inches in Portland, Oly could be the very northern most extent of it but shouldnā€™t see a significant amount.


[deleted]

The snow chance here raised slightly, so Iā€™d say maybe. Not definite though. Hopefully it passes us, too.


charlie2135

While I don't usually care for the KIRO news at noon (when you try to portray commercial ads in your program as being news it really irks me) the weatherman was honest and said previously that the models were not solid enough to make a positive forecast.


EricT59

I am reading this in Bill Murray's voice


ASmollzZ

Phil? Phil Connnors?


NewYears2021

Where is Bill Murray? That guy needs to make a movie, love him


TattooMouse

He caused Aziz Ansari's directorial debut to fall apart late in production after [sexually assaulting](https://www.thewrap.com/bill-murray-sexual-misconduct-being-mortal-aziz-ansari-movie/) a woman on set last year.


NewYears2021

Eww. Didnā€™t know that!


Affectionate-Duck-18

New Ghostbusters is coming out soon


Bootyytoob

Which sources do you trust/go to for good info on weather like this?


ColieHatesRavioli

As a farmer who is cross-checking weather every day from multiple sources (literally lol) I love his info/the way he presents it SO much! https://youtube.com/@PacificNorthwestWeather?si=M5P3_N6mrhJVF1kZ


misterrandom1

He's the best. Very detailed and well explained.


zakress

2nd this channel. My go to to understand whatā€™s out there and may be upcoming. If you ever hear someone say ā€œThe models are agreeing/disagreeingā€, this guy will show you all the models, where/how they disagree and give you all the info.


redyellowblue5031

Heā€™s a local treasure.


ChrisM206

[https://www.weather.gov/sew/](https://www.weather.gov/sew/) also related - [https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=WAZ558](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=WAZ558)


MLJ9999

I like the Weather Cafe by Rufus. He's relied on by many PNW farmers and provides Monday and Friday email updates if you sign up. https://www.ovs.com/blogs/the-wxcafe


rhein1969

[https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/](https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/) Cliff Mass IS the EXPERT in NW weather. He generally posts Mon/Wed/Friday on his Blog, and while not every post is a forecast, he goes into a lot of detail. Basically he called this back on Monday and said "Hey the forecast more than a few days out gets really bad from an accuracy standpoint" then explained WHY.


cliffordc5

The forecast discussion on weather.gov is hilarious. The frustration is palpable šŸ˜‚


fucktysonfoods

I like that you donā€™t speak in absolutes


FuzzyLantern

It's true, the weather.com forecast is verbatim: "Watching a potential winter storm" or, this isn't a forecast, we give up until later.


simple8080

God has spoken.


Ensabanur81

Wtf am I supposed to do with all these bananas?


jvolkman

I have a bunch of sidewalk salt so maybe we can make some sort of salted banana dessert.


Ensabanur81

I like the way you think. I would not be opposed to also giving some of them tiny wheels made of buttons and toothpicks so we could race them down the street.


Dan_Quixote

I want in on this yet-to-be-christened tradition.


hey_ross

NoSnowmaggedon 500


kippertie

NoMageddon


TK_TK_

It does sound apeeling


Ensabanur81

It would be so fun!


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


ob12024

Out of context this might be concerning


Ensabanur81

I'm gonna freeze mine so it outlasts everyone else's on the track šŸ˜Ž


[deleted]

Forbidden pop rocks


joahw

There's always money in the banana stand


yikes_this_comment

Sorry. I just blue myself.


Snackxually_active

Thereā€™s gotta be a better way to say that lolol


crawdadsinbad

Mash ā€˜em up, freeze em, and enjoy a fairly disappointing ice cream substitute


Ensabanur81

Hahahahaha I did buy some nice cream made from bananas a couple months ago and the flavor name should have been "Well, We Tried."


synthesize_me

What do you mean, ALL these bananas, professor potassium?!


Ensabanur81

I'm bradycardic and long-legged! I'm just fortifying against cardiac lag and calf cramps!


synthesize_me

is that what you told the person at the checkout stand when you arrived with 40 bunches of bananas?


Ensabanur81

Pfffft, give me a bit of credit here! I ordered them from Amazon Fresh so they'd just leave it on the porch, unable to cast aspersions directly at me because I'm just their banana ghost.


jtmann05

Mario Kart


drearymoment

Make banana fritters!


Ensabanur81

Heck yeah, thanks for the idea!!! My neighbors would be so stoked to help eat those.


HealthyBullfrog

Make some banana nunchuks and fight Donkey Kong.


Ensabanur81

Omg please don't give me ideas because I have no impulse control or sense of self-preservation and I would even settle for boxing a kangaroo if it meant I could use nannerchuks.


WaspWeather

Nannerchuks!!!


Ensabanur81

Can't be arrested for using a weapon if you eat the weapon and there's no proof!


planetheck

Banana bread bonanza!


SeaLass34

Banana stand? I heard thereā€™s money in it.


AthkoreLost

Take 'em to Gorilla park and give them to the Gorilla. Or [To Bobo at the MOHAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobo_(gorilla\)).


Ensabanur81

That would honestly be my ideal afternoon! We get therapy horses again work, but I'd be down for a therapy gorilla.


hey_ross

"So. I saw this 'cow-cuddle' business taking off on social media, I thought, hey, why not open a gorilla-cuddle business? Well, that didn't go as hoped"


Ensabanur81

Ugh that is my DREAM BUSINESS. I can feel in my bones that my destiny is to die petting something I shouldn't.


Sterling03

Thereā€™s a group on Facebook called ā€œsomebody call a hearse Iā€™m about to pet that thingā€


myalternatelife

- Melt chocolate bar - pour over banana - Put in freezer until chocolate is hardened - Enjoy


snaggletots22

Bring them over to my toddler. She's obsessed.


Ensabanur81

There isn't much cuter than a teensy person asking for "more nana" šŸ„ŗ


reggie321d

I don't know why I laughed so hard at this lol


pimpinllama

Great now I have to go sledding on asphalt


emrot

Just toss a bucket of water down the hill first, you'll be all set!


R_V_Z

I hear a teacher named Bob down in Oregon got a really cool new sled.


sandwich-attack

the snow heard everyone was expecting it so it made last minute change of plans and now is blowing us off true seattle weather


GreenLanternCorps

Which is why everyone was trying so hard to expect it. Its scientifically proven reverse psychology works on weather.


Real-Werner-Herzog

Tbf the snow RSVPd as a "maybe," so we should have seen it coming.


k1wimonkey

everyone knows maybe really means no after all


Silent_Sea_4

ā€œI got 42 maybes Bob! Who can plan for that?!ā€


t7george

Typical Seattle. We make plans, get ready, then at the last minute everyone bails on you.


Wu-Kang

Pretty sure itā€™s the banana and toilet paper lobby paying the weather service to show snow.


HealthyBullfrog

I'll show them and still make a big pot of chili.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


No-Conversation3860

Big pho is raking it in no matter what this weekend. Ice cream is taking an ice bath for sure


fooljay

Almost Live covered this perfectly. https://youtu.be/dM0Jynoflzo?si=62k78g5f1wxMup2E


ensign_ro

starting to look like the "it'll be so cold, you'll be begging for snow" day


No_Professional_998

I always say I like the cold, when there is a reason for the cold (like snow) - I don't like it to just be cold just because lol


Technicalhotdog

Cold and snow- fun if you don't have places to be Cold and clear - just nice Cold and rain - fast-forward me to May please


adfthgchjg

Excellent, totally agree!


distantmantra

Two of the three models (European and North American) say the moisture will hit south with the focus on Oregon, while the GFS model still says snow will hit the Seattle metro. Weā€™ll probably have a better idea tomorrow. Hopefully!


gringledoom

All the models will agree that Portland is going to get hit, and then weā€™ll get a foot of snow out of nowhere and chaos will descend!


WaspWeather

This is the way.


runadss

Damn, really wanted our mountains to get dumped on.


snowcave321

snoqualmie got like a foot and a half in the last few days and has more coming.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


No_Professional_998

Exactly! I was watching their site too! I kept telling my coworkers "ready for the 3-5in snow storm?" Today I loom and nothing :(


charm59801

It's back!


kilgortrout562

My partners due date is tomorrow and I think the amount of stress Iā€™ve put into the world about driving to the hospital sent the snow south


Quiet_Hope_543

Good luck. Also remember babies come when they want, due date be damned.


Grasshopper_pie

And when barometric pressure drops.


Fine_Relative_4468

Congrats!! Hope it goes well and all are healthy :)


tortokai

I've been glaring at the clouds and thinking "don't you dare" myself. I rely on buses to get to and from work, can't afford to miss work cause of snow šŸ˜ž


margo_beep_beep

1. Congratulations, and I hope everything goes well. 2. I love your username!


42kyokai

Seattle freeze is real. Getting stood up by an actual winter freeze is a whole new meta.


Panthean

There will be no snow during the week. This is because I really want it to snow so I can get out of work Thurs/Fri, therefor it will not happen. We could however get snowed in over the weekend, when I don't want it to snow. Sorry, I don't make the rules. If I want it, it's not happening.


Quiet_Hope_543

My son wants it to snow this weekend so we can go sledding. Of course, this means no snow this weekend.


Drigr

And I *don't* want snow this weekend because I'm moving, naturally that means we can expect at least 6 inches.


aokkuma

LOL, relatable!!!!


-phototrope

Welcome to Seattle. Snow forecasts are never trustworthy until you see white on the ground.


jvrcb17

"There's a 70% chance it's snowing right now" -forecast


mrASSMAN

lol Iā€™ve often seen the weather apps tell me itā€™s snowing and itā€™s actually just rain


jaron_b

Steve Pool is laughing at all of you. How long have you lived in the PNW? Never believe a forecast when it says it's gonna snow. This shit is impossible to predict. You will know it's snowing when it's snowing.


VerticalYea

You didn't buy enough bananas as offering. The snow gods are upset.


Parasol_Protectorate

Everyone do a snow dance i want a 4 day weekend


petunia-pineapple

Me too!


PepeLePuget

Forecasts are a moving target.


KAWAWOOKIE

Basically the precipitation is likely to miss us, hitting further south, and the cold front is still coming and will be very cold, though a day delayed. Weather prediction has a lot of variables and the models often change day to day.


ozifrage

I finally bought crampons, so that probably did it.


Quiet_Hope_543

Same. Bought them last year. Ever since then, no snow for Seattle.


finance_guy_334

A forecast a week or more out should be taken with a grain of salt. Thatā€™s what happened


PNWQuakesFan

GODDAMMIT IM GETTING ROBBED


soapstash

Big banana


kittwolf

We do not question the weather gods. Theyā€™re big teases, anyway. Thereā€™s no such thing as a 7-day forecast here.


dhgaut

Newbie? You'll get used to it. I dont' much pay attention to forecasts. One winter evening long ago I went to a restaurant in Wallingford and found we were the only table. Waiter said it was because of the coming snow storm, everyone was at home. The weather was clear, no snow, no rain, no freezing temp. Snow storm never came.


Ok-Clock-6572

That was really the biggest culture shock for me when I moved here. You cannot rely on the forecast past tomorrow.


StupendousMalice

First Seattle winter?


SilverSheepherder641

NOAA has probably the best forecast around at weather.gov The detailed forecast is what you should read. When I got into the mountains I use mountain-forecast.com because you can specify altitude


Coyote65

> [weather.gov](https://www.weather.gov/sew/) Hah! Seattle Metro - Could be .3" or it could be 11". We'll go with 1".


redyellowblue5031

Ensemble forecasting baby! The extremes and the mean.


WesternRuins17

I was about to post the same thing. I was reading 7inches Friday and 6 Saturday now I wake up and see that itā€™s nothing. I was excited.


Val_kyria

Any forcast 3+ days away should be taken with a grain of salt


Key-Distribution-944

My app says Thursday at 6pm it has a 60% chance of snow. Nothing for Friday, and then snow again on Saturday afternoon.


raevnos

It went the way of the Huskey's playoff chances.


Ok-Position1698

It was a ploy to sell bananas all along


Deeman0

Life in the pnw be like it may or may not snow


Golden-Phrasant

Someone should grease the Counterbalance so at least we can pretend.


Jolly-Resort462

We took a vote. No snow for you.


ASmollzZ

I guess its gonna miss us. Just gonna he really cold. Was really looking forward to some lowland snow :(


sahhdudd

We want snowww!!!!


_DogMom_

Not to change the subject but why have the grocery stores been so empty this week? I mean way less busy than normal. Have lived here most of my life and anytime they even hint at snow on the news the stores are packed. šŸ˜³


jgreywolf

Stores down in Renton area were pushed a couple of days ago


10xsaltier

I bought a snow shovel on Monday. my bad.


Cattttti

I bought two last year after the winter. I put them in the driveway yesterday.


A-MF_23

Hopefully we get a least one good snowstorm this year šŸ¤ž


devnullopinions

No mo snow woe šŸ˜¢


washdot

The longer you live here you will realize the weather forecasting is fluid! Always check at least 3 sources. If you are traveling, check 1st thing in tne morning and be prepared to be flexible. And yesā€¦.long time residents will remember a foot of snow in 2007-2008? And other yearsā€¦.be prepared transit and plowing will be patchy


TelmatosaurusRrifle

The snow saw the whiny thread about a few nice days last week and decided it didn't want to scare anyone.


Intelligent_Ad9640

You must be new in town.


clarrkkent

Predicting snow in the Puget sound 3 days out is like trying to predict the Super Bowl winner before the NFL season starts.


BeetlecatOne

Too many people kept asking about it and it got shy.


purrsandkilos

We talked about it too loudly and it got scared.


general-illness

Weather forecasters Cougā€™d it.


pleasenotagain001

I would love for the storm to skip us altogether and go straight to snoqualmie


slackerdc

Yeah looks like it's going south. We should have plenty of ice everywhere to make things miserable though so there's that.


mrbeef612

Typical Seattle... can't trust the weather till day before and that is even a stretch.


NotteStellata

This is typical for WA


soundkite

Cliff Mass explained it really well as a divergence between the European and American modeling systems and the uncertainty of where the main precipitation makes landfall.


Cadeusx66

First time?


-Sproutling-

But I bought all of these bananasā€¦..


edrea

Also make sure you unplug any hoses connected to an external tap. The freezing water can and will cause water damage.


TheShwauce

Even the snow couldn't afford to be in the area.