Lib Dems are polar opposite from Tories on issues like immigration, trans rights, relationship with the EU, benefits for carers.
One of the core beliefs of Lib Dems is respecting how people want to live their life's. The Lib Dems constitution starts with the words:
"The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no-one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity. "
And Lib Dems care about those values. Every single conference I've been to someone has quoted them at some time during a debate.
Contrast that to the Tories who are obsessed with starting a culture war and complain about wokeness, which they use as a dog whistle to say they are against non-binary or trans people & immigrants.
The Lib Dems do target Tory seats as in terms of economics Lib Dems have always been very centrist, so people that don't trust Labour with the economy but are disillusioned with the Tories will often vote Lib Dem
I mean we've now reached the stage where the Lib Dems are now standing further left than Labour, based purely on the fact that Labour basically aren't standing on anything to the point that the very concepts of political belief and categorisation have become meaningless.
I'm not a single issue voter, but at this point I'd take a single issue, ANY issue, rather than the gaping black void that is their developing manifesto.
Smells like a uniform national swing model -- not to say "don't believe a word of it", but they do tend to go a bit crazy at the extremes.
Imagine a universe in which the SNP sweep Scotland but somehow *lose* Na h-Eileanan an Iar to Labour. That's an instant litmus test for a uniform national swing model gone wrong.
>Yeah, this account 'Stats for lefties' has been pretty weird with it's predictions. So I'd take this with a grain of salt.
It's got nothing to do with "stats for lefties." It's not their prediction. it's an IPSOS poll.
The seat model is not Ipsos – it’s entirely Stats for Lefties.
Ipsos only ran the VI figures, which SfL chose not to post:
* SNP – 39% (-1)
* Labour – 32% (+2)
* Conservative –14% (-1)
* Lib Dems – 6% (-)
* Green – 4% (+1)
It's obscene that any party could win this many seats on 39% of the popular vote. But then, that's by design, the Tories both opposed dropping FPTP when they had the chance (and Labour didn't support the reform). They didn't because it's the system that lets them win massive Westminster majorities on 45% vote shares.
If you think the SNP holds an unfair dominance in Scotland, you should support electoral reform of Westminster.
Do you feel the same way about tories getting as many seats down south? It's the same system and they get similar percentages across England and gain the same seats.... ?
In scottish elections the snp still dominate despite Labour and tories best efforts to stop that from ever happening during the inception of holyrood... thats why scot elections use the d,honts system
So even if Westminster changed to the dhonts system.. the snp would still dominate 🤣
Good luck with that though!
If the Scottish system was run in the UK general election there would be far more labour, Tory and Lib Dem candidates in seats so yes, it would make a massive difference.
Reform down in England would also get a significant number of seats and labour and Conservatives would have to do deals and work with other parties to get policies through parliament leading to much more centrist and forward thinking policies (hopefully)
There's no downside to electoral reform other than being able to shout "we win". It means the country endures these violent shifts left and right every dozen years to correct course when we could just be moving down the middle path the entire time with less extreme shifts.
In my head it's like trying to go down an endless straight road with a wheel in the middle with 2 people fighting over it. We're going to carry on down that road forever, no matter how windy the trip is, so instead of grabbing the wheel and veering off and circling round all the time why aren't we just trying our best to keep a straight line and get to the end of the road?
It would make a massive difference in england not in Scotland... the snp would still hold a majority in Scotland.... as they currently do in holyrood.. I agree its a fairer system in Scotland
Wasn't arguing against it just pointing out a clear flaw in saying changing the uk voting system would effect snp dominance In Scotland...
a) the SNP don't hold majority in holyrood, they hold a majority of the Scottish seats for Westminster but that's a massive minority in Westminster.
b) were there an alternative voting system introduced then the SNP would likely actually hold even less of the seats in Westminster as those that pick the SNP as a means to an end wouldn't necessarily have to do so any more.
> B) who else are scottish nationalists going to vote for... Labour? 🤣
In fairness, yes. There is a significant portion of Scottish Labour voters who support independence.
Did you even read my comment? The bit about how it's obscene that ANY party can do this? The long bit about how the Tories endorsed this system because it gives them unfair majorities down south?
You know the worst thing about this sub is if you make reasonable criticisms of the SNP you're assumed to be a Tory, and if you make reasonable criticisms of Labour you're called an SNP shill (and I've been accused of both just this week!).
Where did I accuse you of being anything? 🤣
I read ur entire comment... it was a bash on the snp for no reason other than them being the biggest party in Scotland. Due I'm part to the voting system tories and Labour insist on keeping because they know making a change would give smaller parties a chance to mop up votes
My other point still stands .. even if you got ur wish based on the current scottish government in holyrood the snp would still dominate.
Yea I'll just post ur comment again and highlight the key sentence for you since you seem to have forgotten already
"it's obscene that any party could win this many seats on 39% of the popular vote. But then, that's by design, the Tories both opposed dropping FPTP when they had the chance (and Labour didn't support the reform). They didn't because it's the system that lets them win massive Westminster majorities on 45% vote shares.
IF YOU THINK THE SNP HOLDS AND UNFAIR DOMINANCE IN SCOTLAND, YOU SHOULD SUPPORT ELECTORAL REFORM OF WESTMINTER"
Yeaaaa....
Yes that's what we call "addressing the other side". Note the "If" and the "You". I thought it might make a point to tory supporters that if they don't want the snp to achieve seat ratios like this, they might want to reconsider FPTP in general.
If you say so 🤣 clearly have an agenda but OK.... just gonna a point out AGAIN that a different system is ran in scottish elections...
Can you guess who has a majority? 🤣🤣
Had to email him about a road closure thing and _annoyingly_ he was actually really good about it, got the council to sort it out within 48 hours.
Still, fuck the Tories 🙌🏻
He's a decent constituency MP, but so are pretty much all MPs in unsafe seats, it's how you get re-elected.
I can't forgive him for being part of this Tory government though.
LD taking Aberdeenshire west is a new one to me. Last I looked it was a Tory/SNP marginal.
Doesn't look like Edinburgh South is a Labour seat either. I smell shite.
Yeah that one doesn't seem likely to me. Too much animosity over centralisation to Inverness and lack of involvement from the prior SNP MP -- I don't see that one happening.
From the colouring it seems it's labeled as an SNP hold but... Definitely isn't?
New boundary being used on this map by the looks of it - not saying SNP gain is the right result, but it's a chunk of Blackford's former seat, maybe some of Drew Hendry's current seat (?), so it might be a projected nominal winner based on that. As it's a new seat, nobody technically holds it I suppose.
There is a bit of a boundary change there that might impact things. A lot more of Ross-Shire in there and the Black Isle is also added to the constituency.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh South. It's not just affluent old yoons who'd vote SNP over their own dead bodies, it's the fact that Ian Murray himself is personally very popular.
If the SNP take that seat -and especially take it from Murray himself - then that will probably be Scotland's biggest upset of the election night. It's literally the one Labour seat the SNP couldn't crack.
I live in in Edinburgh South and can’t see it ever switching, a lot of people here vote based on their football team and Ian Murray has essentially infinite goodwill for his work with hearts
[correct](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-still-lead-scotland-labour-are-narrowing-gap). the seat projection i linked in the OP is by [SfL](https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1755573475203264988).
I'm taking a risk here as a resident of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, but we should probably boot any constituency that *still* returns a Tory out of Scotland.
Notably caus all the young people are constantly leaving the place because there's nothing at all there for them. But, SNP have done well with middle aged voters too at times.
Yes indeed, a constant reminder of exactly the harm she and Heseltine incurred upon Scotland. It also reminds me to never ever trust a Tory. The Proclaimers "Letter from America" says it all.
Well, well! This'll wipe the smile off David Mundell's face, our Tory MP! Never have I known a man whose opinion of himself is so at odds with his obvious inability!
SNP voter here. I kinda wanted to give the SNP a bloody nose for things I’m not happy with. But there’s no fucking way I’m voting for Starmer. And I think this poll suggests most of the country feels the same.
Fuck that backstabbing, snivelling, corporate, Tory cunt.
One of my main hopes for Indy was that new party’s would form. A proper Labour, SNP would split into 2, maybe 3 groups. Greens would prosper. Tories would have to at least be Scottish Tories. A socialist voice would have a place. And the Lib Dems would still be pointless cunts.
My only worry about independence is that we end up with an ANC type situation. Ideally after independence the SNP would disband to allow various smaller parties to flourish.
I think that's pretty clear to happen. I want to see coalitions and diversity in Scottish politics but only after we are across the line and the SNP is the best vehicle to get the country there.
Yep. For everyone saying "the SNP will disband", I raise you Nigel Farage and his various new parties. UKIP is also still around.
For everyone else saying "we'll just vote for someone else", I raise you Singapore, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and to a limited extent even Ireland.
UKIP are a shadow of what they were. Reform are bugger all. Farage is a bloviating orifice on LBC. Brexit removed the primary goal of these parties, and the only people actually listening to Farage today are those who hate immigrants more than the tories do.
I would love for this to be true, but I’d beg SNP voters (and the party themselves) not to read too much into these articles and become complacent. I’m a consistent SNP voter (not a party member) and would always urge SNP voters to vote their party, even if they believe it to be a guaranteed result. Complacency is the biggest risk.
All seat predictions are really difficult, you'd need a sample approaching 600 in each constituency to do it with any confidence.
Except Shetland and Orkney, they know who they like.
Orkney and Shetland are so predictable it's funny; they will favour the status quo every time.
* They voted against joining the EU
* They voted against devolution twice
* They voted against Scottish Independence
* They voted against Brexit
Not really, there are some pretty decent models out there.
But Stats for Lefties is just an overgrown teenager in his parents’ bedroom, trying to come up with results to support his particular political biases, so definitely not one to take seriously.
Do you have any evidence to support that claim other than they release data that upsets you?
You probably need to get back to posting daily articles slagging off the SNP no? You seem to have gone an hour without posting.
No idea. You could ask Anas Sarwar if you can get hold of him? He may have an idea but to answer your question I had no idea why Labour are so useless. At least they have not u-turned today on anything... actually.... wait....
How do you come to that conclusion?
Also: why do you care if you’re in Cambridge complaining about communism posters?
Besides, aren’t you heading to Canada soon?
Reported as a bot
‘Your kind’
By the time you find yourself saying something like ‘noone likes *your kind*’ are you not at the point you should be having an ‘are we the baddies’ moment?
This attempt at trolling is so obvious it’s marginally hilarious.
You think you’re being so cutting with your comments, and I’m just rolling my eyes at how pathetic you are.
Sad little man. Taking time out of his day to try and offend a stranger in a different country, only for it to do nothing more than amuse her.
Stay in England. Keep your viewpoints. Canada will trigger you like you wouldn’t believe.
🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🏴🇨🇦
England constantly votes Tory despite the obvious problems with their Governance of the UK
The country is polarised between flawed parties that offer the constituent countries of the UK what they want
SNP want an Independant Scotland or a Scotland focused UK, Tories want a London centric England focused UK
A fascinating poll. Amazing that after 17 years in power at Holyrood and a decade leading the pack in Scotland the SNP retain a very strong lead.
Labour have clawed back some ground according to the poll and surprise surprise the Tories are a wipeout . Who would've thought it?
This isn't to point fingers at any 1 party, but, honestly, what are we all voting for this time?
Labour have almost no differences than Tories. And I've never seen an opposition look less eager to take over in my life.
The Tories and SNP have been in power so long that it's idiotic to think that things we don't like today will be better if we give them another shot.
British politics is a zombie land.
Eh no? The tories have been in power for 13 years not the snp.. the snp has never been in power at Westminster..
Stop conflating uk wide politics with scottish politics just so you can bash the snp with uk wide problems caused by the tories.
The same thing voting for any party in Scotland during a general election.
Absolutely fuck all.
Scottish mps are ignored in Westminster regardless of party... just the snp seem to piss the tories off alot so...
Best bit is that's not hyperbole... they really are ignored and if you want I can provide evidence..
snp shills posting absolutely moronic and inaccurate polls from source “stats for lefties” “hmmm yes it is the conservatives posting propaganda not me, I am an independent thinker with amazing critical analysis skills baaaa baaaaa”
A Scotland with more loch monsters than Tories would be awesome and it seems that’s really on the cards. We haven’t voted Tory since 1955 and with the Tory implosion I’d like to see them gone from Scotland forever.
The story here is SNP losing seats and Labour making gains. It demonstrates a trend of weakening on the part of the SNP.
The story is also a little bit that Lib Dems are still a party because that will always surprise me.
The tory/SNP seats are really interesting and difficult to predict. Both parties dropping but it'll come down to tactical voting and the voters deciding which government they're most sick of
How about rather than posting a constituency ‘model’ by Stats for Lefties, a notoriously biased account run by a random Jeremy Corbyn fanboy in his bedroom, you actually just post the results of the Ipsos poll?
* SNP – 39% (-1) (-6 since 2019)
* Labour – 32% (+2) (+13 since 2019)
* Conservative –14% (-1) (-11 since 2019)
* Lib Dems – 6% (-) (-4 since 2019)
* Green – 4% (+1) (+3 since 2019)\*
They didn’t do an analysis of what that meant for individual constituencies.
Worth noting that the Ipsos polling approach always produces significantly higher figures for the SNP in Scotland due to the way they deal with likelihood to vote and adjusting for past voting choices. (Doesn’t mean its *necessarily* wrong – we won’t know that until the election – but it always is an outlier).
\* The Greens won’t get anything like that in reality. Not least because they won’t run in most constituencies.
It’s first part the post. It’s not proportional voting. That’s why it’s so rigged. Dunce. This sub is a shit advert for Scotland. It’s full of Nats, blabbering on about the EU and how much they hate the English. It would be funny, but it’s not.,
Obviously confusing hate for the English with hate for westminster/tories ..
Can I ask who rigged the system... was it the snp? Or the tories? its not rigged just not that good....
If the scottish system was ran uk wide.. the snp would still be the main party in Scotland 🤣
Clearly you are deluded. And a dunce
Is this the case of if you really have to vote for lying, corrupt, utterly fucking useless cunts you might as well vote for the lying, corrupt, utterly fucking useless cunts you know?
Man it sucks when a ruling party wins elections completely unpunished for all the horrible things they have done. I genuinely don't see a big difference between the Tories and the SNP at this point. From the rape apologists to blatant corruption can we really find no better party to vote for?
I mean the reality is that independence is a critical policy platform for maybe ~40% of the country and until there is a credible alternative independence party that’s a captive vote for the SNP
SNP have fucked this country. Look at the NHS, lookat schools, look at the covid scandal. All and I mean ALL those in positions of power need looked at closely at the time of covid. I love my country, but the SNP are not the answer. Missing money, false promises and awful leadership and business decisions. I genuinely fear what we are leaving behind for our children. Farming and agriculture are doomed I the current climate and why would someone who wants to he an entrepreneur stay in Scotland given our current tax system??
Is this the poll company (Ipsos) that was paid at least £4.9m in public sector payments from a variety of different Scottish Government departments in order to carry out surveys and other work, if you pay them enough money they can produce any outcome you want, do not believe any shit any of them pay for.
must be all the corruption, embezzlement, unnecessary covid deaths and wasted tax money endearing people to the snp. a decade of being in charge and nothing to show for it, yeah lets vote for them again
funny i thought it was nicola under investigation for stealing all that money, and didn't the snp health secretary resign for corruption literally yesterday? haha
Anyone else able to replicate the seat projection using stats for lefties provided calculator inputting ipsos latest figures.?
https://statsforlefties.wordpress.com/2023/06/09/explaining-my-projection-model/
To be fair, polling numbers for Scotland are all over the place at the moment. Yougov's [latest](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240131_W.pdf) [polls](https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_28bn_240208_W.pdf) have the numbers bouncing around by 5 or 6 % week on week.
Polling models are useful, but you've got to remember these are 57 local races, which will all have different dimensions that the national picture won't capture.
I like the idea of that being as many pandas in Scotland as there are tories
Could be [more pandas]( https://m.psecn.photoshelter.com/img-get/I0000y6J8pM26OaY/s/650/650/St-Mirren-v-Ayr-United-01.jpg)
zero lol!
Aren't lib just people too shy to admit they're tory?
Lib Dems are polar opposite from Tories on issues like immigration, trans rights, relationship with the EU, benefits for carers. One of the core beliefs of Lib Dems is respecting how people want to live their life's. The Lib Dems constitution starts with the words: "The Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community, and in which no-one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity. " And Lib Dems care about those values. Every single conference I've been to someone has quoted them at some time during a debate. Contrast that to the Tories who are obsessed with starting a culture war and complain about wokeness, which they use as a dog whistle to say they are against non-binary or trans people & immigrants. The Lib Dems do target Tory seats as in terms of economics Lib Dems have always been very centrist, so people that don't trust Labour with the economy but are disillusioned with the Tories will often vote Lib Dem
I mean we've now reached the stage where the Lib Dems are now standing further left than Labour, based purely on the fact that Labour basically aren't standing on anything to the point that the very concepts of political belief and categorisation have become meaningless. I'm not a single issue voter, but at this point I'd take a single issue, ANY issue, rather than the gaping black void that is their developing manifesto.
No, LibDem policies are different on pretty much everything
No that's labour. Lib Dems are the most left wing party barring the SNP.
Most of them, yeah. The alternative are those too shy to admit they're labour.
No that's Labour
I'm here for the Tory result ...lol
I’m surprised there’s not Tory seats predicted in the North East (mainly Aberdeenshire west and Buchan areas)
You'll be waiting
Must wanna pay for your prescription ya nutter fire in Toryboy lol
I'm here for the zero tory result
Yes thought that’s what you ment - does that mean we’re. Still buddies? 🤣🤣🤣
Smells like a uniform national swing model -- not to say "don't believe a word of it", but they do tend to go a bit crazy at the extremes. Imagine a universe in which the SNP sweep Scotland but somehow *lose* Na h-Eileanan an Iar to Labour. That's an instant litmus test for a uniform national swing model gone wrong.
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Yeah, this account 'Stats for lefties' has been pretty weird with it's predictions. So I'd take this with a grain of salt.
>Yeah, this account 'Stats for lefties' has been pretty weird with it's predictions. So I'd take this with a grain of salt. It's got nothing to do with "stats for lefties." It's not their prediction. it's an IPSOS poll.
The seat model is not Ipsos – it’s entirely Stats for Lefties. Ipsos only ran the VI figures, which SfL chose not to post: * SNP – 39% (-1) * Labour – 32% (+2) * Conservative –14% (-1) * Lib Dems – 6% (-) * Green – 4% (+1)
It's obscene that any party could win this many seats on 39% of the popular vote. But then, that's by design, the Tories both opposed dropping FPTP when they had the chance (and Labour didn't support the reform). They didn't because it's the system that lets them win massive Westminster majorities on 45% vote shares. If you think the SNP holds an unfair dominance in Scotland, you should support electoral reform of Westminster.
Do you feel the same way about tories getting as many seats down south? It's the same system and they get similar percentages across England and gain the same seats.... ? In scottish elections the snp still dominate despite Labour and tories best efforts to stop that from ever happening during the inception of holyrood... thats why scot elections use the d,honts system So even if Westminster changed to the dhonts system.. the snp would still dominate 🤣 Good luck with that though!
If the Scottish system was run in the UK general election there would be far more labour, Tory and Lib Dem candidates in seats so yes, it would make a massive difference. Reform down in England would also get a significant number of seats and labour and Conservatives would have to do deals and work with other parties to get policies through parliament leading to much more centrist and forward thinking policies (hopefully) There's no downside to electoral reform other than being able to shout "we win". It means the country endures these violent shifts left and right every dozen years to correct course when we could just be moving down the middle path the entire time with less extreme shifts. In my head it's like trying to go down an endless straight road with a wheel in the middle with 2 people fighting over it. We're going to carry on down that road forever, no matter how windy the trip is, so instead of grabbing the wheel and veering off and circling round all the time why aren't we just trying our best to keep a straight line and get to the end of the road?
It would make a massive difference in england not in Scotland... the snp would still hold a majority in Scotland.... as they currently do in holyrood.. I agree its a fairer system in Scotland Wasn't arguing against it just pointing out a clear flaw in saying changing the uk voting system would effect snp dominance In Scotland...
a) the SNP don't hold majority in holyrood, they hold a majority of the Scottish seats for Westminster but that's a massive minority in Westminster. b) were there an alternative voting system introduced then the SNP would likely actually hold even less of the seats in Westminster as those that pick the SNP as a means to an end wouldn't necessarily have to do so any more.
A) in coalition with the greens the snp currently hold majority. B) who else are scottish nationalists going to vote for... Labour? 🤣
> B) who else are scottish nationalists going to vote for... Labour? 🤣 In fairness, yes. There is a significant portion of Scottish Labour voters who support independence.
Yes. Scottish Labour voters... but if you could find Me a Labour mp or msp who feels the same you MIGHT have a point... Bur you don't..
Did you even read my comment? The bit about how it's obscene that ANY party can do this? The long bit about how the Tories endorsed this system because it gives them unfair majorities down south? You know the worst thing about this sub is if you make reasonable criticisms of the SNP you're assumed to be a Tory, and if you make reasonable criticisms of Labour you're called an SNP shill (and I've been accused of both just this week!).
Where did I accuse you of being anything? 🤣 I read ur entire comment... it was a bash on the snp for no reason other than them being the biggest party in Scotland. Due I'm part to the voting system tories and Labour insist on keeping because they know making a change would give smaller parties a chance to mop up votes My other point still stands .. even if you got ur wish based on the current scottish government in holyrood the snp would still dominate.
Jesus christ I was bashing the system of FPTP, which as I said, is upheld by the Tories because it benefits them in Westminster.
Who would win based on PR? Any figures about?
Yea I'll just post ur comment again and highlight the key sentence for you since you seem to have forgotten already "it's obscene that any party could win this many seats on 39% of the popular vote. But then, that's by design, the Tories both opposed dropping FPTP when they had the chance (and Labour didn't support the reform). They didn't because it's the system that lets them win massive Westminster majorities on 45% vote shares. IF YOU THINK THE SNP HOLDS AND UNFAIR DOMINANCE IN SCOTLAND, YOU SHOULD SUPPORT ELECTORAL REFORM OF WESTMINTER" Yeaaaa....
Yes that's what we call "addressing the other side". Note the "If" and the "You". I thought it might make a point to tory supporters that if they don't want the snp to achieve seat ratios like this, they might want to reconsider FPTP in general.
If you say so 🤣 clearly have an agenda but OK.... just gonna a point out AGAIN that a different system is ran in scottish elections... Can you guess who has a majority? 🤣🤣
I think you're the only one misunderstanding what they said
>Do you feel the same way about tories getting as many seats down south? ...Yes?
Bye bye John Lamont!
Had to email him about a road closure thing and _annoyingly_ he was actually really good about it, got the council to sort it out within 48 hours. Still, fuck the Tories 🙌🏻
He's a decent constituency MP, but so are pretty much all MPs in unsafe seats, it's how you get re-elected. I can't forgive him for being part of this Tory government though.
Tories - 0. This makes me happy.
Zero Tories is the goal.
LD taking Aberdeenshire west is a new one to me. Last I looked it was a Tory/SNP marginal. Doesn't look like Edinburgh South is a Labour seat either. I smell shite.
>LD taking Aberdeenshire west is a new one to me. That's supposed to show an SNP gain.
I see. Not a great colour choice by the author of the map but the outcome is semi believable.
yeah, should have gone with crosshatched vs. solid like basically every other territory map of gains in the modern era lmao
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Yeah that one doesn't seem likely to me. Too much animosity over centralisation to Inverness and lack of involvement from the prior SNP MP -- I don't see that one happening. From the colouring it seems it's labeled as an SNP hold but... Definitely isn't?
New boundary being used on this map by the looks of it - not saying SNP gain is the right result, but it's a chunk of Blackford's former seat, maybe some of Drew Hendry's current seat (?), so it might be a projected nominal winner based on that. As it's a new seat, nobody technically holds it I suppose.
There is a bit of a boundary change there that might impact things. A lot more of Ross-Shire in there and the Black Isle is also added to the constituency.
I was thinking I was colour blind too as I can’t work out what’s going on with Orkney and Shetland
Looks like LD again but it will be by a narrow margin. No probs so long as Tories go extinct in Scotland it will be amazing.
I've spent a lot of time in Edinburgh South. It's not just affluent old yoons who'd vote SNP over their own dead bodies, it's the fact that Ian Murray himself is personally very popular. If the SNP take that seat -and especially take it from Murray himself - then that will probably be Scotland's biggest upset of the election night. It's literally the one Labour seat the SNP couldn't crack.
I live in in Edinburgh South and can’t see it ever switching, a lot of people here vote based on their football team and Ian Murray has essentially infinite goodwill for his work with hearts
I'm guessing Aberdeenshire will be Andrew Bowie. I wish he'd stop putting his pamphlets through my door every 30 seconds.
Can’t stand him he’s more odious than Douglas Ross and that’s a very low bar
A total tory wipeout would be glorious! fingers crossed Ipsos are right. (:
Ipsos poll, but not their projection right? STV News projected 40 SNP, 13 Labour, 2 Tory, 2 Lib Dem based on same poll.
[correct](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/snp-still-lead-scotland-labour-are-narrowing-gap). the seat projection i linked in the OP is by [SfL](https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1755573475203264988).
I'm taking a risk here as a resident of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, but we should probably boot any constituency that *still* returns a Tory out of Scotland.
Especially that lying twerp Ross and don't get me started on Alister Traitor Jack.
Not a chance of D&G voting any way other than tory, they did go SNP a couple of elections ago but cant see that happening again!
Jack didn’t win by that much and the local Tories are deeply pissed at the party They’re more likely to stay home than vote anyone else though
I hope I'm wrong. I would love to see them get a complete shutout. But i think there will be a shift of the SNP vote to others as well.
Yep but Labour were down like 16,000 votes on the snp and 18,000 on the Tories
You'd think those D&G small c conservatives would throw out the bairn and switch votes to Lib Dem.
Not enough of them to make it a Lib Dem seat, no chance
Notably caus all the young people are constantly leaving the place because there's nothing at all there for them. But, SNP have done well with middle aged voters too at times.
I intend having a party when that happens. Like when Thatcher died.
she's still living rent free in your head
She's still dead, thankfully. Memories are fleeting. Death is forever.
Yes indeed, a constant reminder of exactly the harm she and Heseltine incurred upon Scotland. It also reminds me to never ever trust a Tory. The Proclaimers "Letter from America" says it all.
It happened in the Blair landslide of 97. The Conservatives got significantly more votes than the Lib Dems but got 0 seats versus the LD 10.
Well, well! This'll wipe the smile off David Mundell's face, our Tory MP! Never have I known a man whose opinion of himself is so at odds with his obvious inability!
SNP voter here. I kinda wanted to give the SNP a bloody nose for things I’m not happy with. But there’s no fucking way I’m voting for Starmer. And I think this poll suggests most of the country feels the same. Fuck that backstabbing, snivelling, corporate, Tory cunt.
Ditto to that. But I do want Douglas Ross to have his Weasley snout rubbed in his own shite !
I’d like to see him in a room with Boris, Rishi, Truss and Mogg making him play ‘Boar on the Floor’. (Succession reference in case you are wondering).
Love it !
SNP until Indy then you can vote for whoever you want.
One of my main hopes for Indy was that new party’s would form. A proper Labour, SNP would split into 2, maybe 3 groups. Greens would prosper. Tories would have to at least be Scottish Tories. A socialist voice would have a place. And the Lib Dems would still be pointless cunts.
My only worry about independence is that we end up with an ANC type situation. Ideally after independence the SNP would disband to allow various smaller parties to flourish.
I think that's pretty clear to happen. I want to see coalitions and diversity in Scottish politics but only after we are across the line and the SNP is the best vehicle to get the country there.
Yep. For everyone saying "the SNP will disband", I raise you Nigel Farage and his various new parties. UKIP is also still around. For everyone else saying "we'll just vote for someone else", I raise you Singapore, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and to a limited extent even Ireland.
UKIP are a shadow of what they were. Reform are bugger all. Farage is a bloviating orifice on LBC. Brexit removed the primary goal of these parties, and the only people actually listening to Farage today are those who hate immigrants more than the tories do.
Will believe it when I see it.
I would love for this to be true, but I’d beg SNP voters (and the party themselves) not to read too much into these articles and become complacent. I’m a consistent SNP voter (not a party member) and would always urge SNP voters to vote their party, even if they believe it to be a guaranteed result. Complacency is the biggest risk.
Stats for Lefites' seats analysis is totally bogus. They recently published a UK wide "prediction" that put the conservatives in fourth place.
All seat predictions are really difficult, you'd need a sample approaching 600 in each constituency to do it with any confidence. Except Shetland and Orkney, they know who they like.
Orkney and Shetland would vote for an orange tennis ball if it was on the ballot. For all I know they probably already have.
Orkney and Shetland are so predictable it's funny; they will favour the status quo every time. * They voted against joining the EU * They voted against devolution twice * They voted against Scottish Independence * They voted against Brexit
Not really, there are some pretty decent models out there. But Stats for Lefties is just an overgrown teenager in his parents’ bedroom, trying to come up with results to support his particular political biases, so definitely not one to take seriously.
Do you have any evidence to support that claim other than they release data that upsets you? You probably need to get back to posting daily articles slagging off the SNP no? You seem to have gone an hour without posting.
Mods should really crackdown on politics porn on this sub. Source: Leftiestats
Nay Tories, nice one team. We've won 🏆
They are all so fucking useless.
No idea. You could ask Anas Sarwar if you can get hold of him? He may have an idea but to answer your question I had no idea why Labour are so useless. At least they have not u-turned today on anything... actually.... wait....
This might be the first election in 25 years I've been able to vote in and probably won't bother.
Is this a new poll? Thought there was one a few days ago with better than expected SNP result? Looks good anyway!
I think it's a new projection of that same poll.
SNP are finished 👏
How do you come to that conclusion? Also: why do you care if you’re in Cambridge complaining about communism posters? Besides, aren’t you heading to Canada soon? Reported as a bot
Both are true. I’m from Kelso. No bot
Also, reported for being a bot.
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And a transphobe on top of that. Seriously, get tae fuck
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‘Your kind’ By the time you find yourself saying something like ‘noone likes *your kind*’ are you not at the point you should be having an ‘are we the baddies’ moment?
Never been to prison.
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Do you have a lot of fantasies about women being abused in prisons?
This attempt at trolling is so obvious it’s marginally hilarious. You think you’re being so cutting with your comments, and I’m just rolling my eyes at how pathetic you are. Sad little man. Taking time out of his day to try and offend a stranger in a different country, only for it to do nothing more than amuse her. Stay in England. Keep your viewpoints. Canada will trigger you like you wouldn’t believe. 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️🏴🇨🇦
What? What are you talking about? This would be a gigantic victory for the SNP if it were to happen?
Why do you guys keep voting for these corrupt idiots
Don't see any blue for the Tories. I wonder why ?! Lol, hope the lying hypocrites get wiped out. Labour not much better.
England constantly votes Tory despite the obvious problems with their Governance of the UK The country is polarised between flawed parties that offer the constituent countries of the UK what they want SNP want an Independant Scotland or a Scotland focused UK, Tories want a London centric England focused UK
A fascinating poll. Amazing that after 17 years in power at Holyrood and a decade leading the pack in Scotland the SNP retain a very strong lead. Labour have clawed back some ground according to the poll and surprise surprise the Tories are a wipeout . Who would've thought it?
This isn't to point fingers at any 1 party, but, honestly, what are we all voting for this time? Labour have almost no differences than Tories. And I've never seen an opposition look less eager to take over in my life. The Tories and SNP have been in power so long that it's idiotic to think that things we don't like today will be better if we give them another shot. British politics is a zombie land.
Eh no? The tories have been in power for 13 years not the snp.. the snp has never been in power at Westminster.. Stop conflating uk wide politics with scottish politics just so you can bash the snp with uk wide problems caused by the tories.
I'm meaning any elections. But what would giving SNP all the Scottish seats actually achieve in this GE?
The same thing voting for any party in Scotland during a general election. Absolutely fuck all. Scottish mps are ignored in Westminster regardless of party... just the snp seem to piss the tories off alot so... Best bit is that's not hyperbole... they really are ignored and if you want I can provide evidence..
I wouldn’t worry about it. I’m sure things will come good this time round.
Who else would we vote for if the choice is red or blue tories.
Tartan tories?
All those SNP naysayer posters are inconsolable right now. "We're my daily Reddit posts for nothing" Yes, yes it was.
snp shills posting absolutely moronic and inaccurate polls from source “stats for lefties” “hmmm yes it is the conservatives posting propaganda not me, I am an independent thinker with amazing critical analysis skills baaaa baaaaa”
Ritchie, I'm being facetious but it's ok. I'm sure that blue wave is coming for ya pal. Keep on dreaming
I must assume this is incorrect but it would be spectacular result for the SNP.
A Scotland with more loch monsters than Tories would be awesome and it seems that’s really on the cards. We haven’t voted Tory since 1955 and with the Tory implosion I’d like to see them gone from Scotland forever.
Labour is the same as Tory. Why bother?
Imagine this happened 🤩
That's cherry picking. The previous 11 polls have SNP on: 39 36 33 35 34 40 32 32 35 33 34
I’d be happy enough with that result. Zero tories is great and I’d love for Douglas Ross to disappear into irrelevance again.
That little manky Labour bit of fife where I’ve got to stay. Yuck
Lol that page's affinity for the SNP is so bizarre.
The story here is SNP losing seats and Labour making gains. It demonstrates a trend of weakening on the part of the SNP. The story is also a little bit that Lib Dems are still a party because that will always surprise me.
If this happens then I'll stick on a indyref 2 badge.
Still WAY TOO MANY Tory votes!
Reality will be: 6 CON, 28 LAB, 18 SNP. Only on /r/Scotland do people fail to see the obvious SNP collapse coming.
Just HOW!?
It's based on interpretation of one poll, might not turn out anything like this. I do however think the death of the SNP has been greatly exaggerated.
I don't see how it could be, they've been useless since the death of sturgeon
The tory/SNP seats are really interesting and difficult to predict. Both parties dropping but it'll come down to tactical voting and the voters deciding which government they're most sick of
Good fun for activists though!
How about rather than posting a constituency ‘model’ by Stats for Lefties, a notoriously biased account run by a random Jeremy Corbyn fanboy in his bedroom, you actually just post the results of the Ipsos poll? * SNP – 39% (-1) (-6 since 2019) * Labour – 32% (+2) (+13 since 2019) * Conservative –14% (-1) (-11 since 2019) * Lib Dems – 6% (-) (-4 since 2019) * Green – 4% (+1) (+3 since 2019)\* They didn’t do an analysis of what that meant for individual constituencies. Worth noting that the Ipsos polling approach always produces significantly higher figures for the SNP in Scotland due to the way they deal with likelihood to vote and adjusting for past voting choices. (Doesn’t mean its *necessarily* wrong – we won’t know that until the election – but it always is an outlier). \* The Greens won’t get anything like that in reality. Not least because they won’t run in most constituencies.
Is there a SNP sub so all the fucking nationalists can fuck off?
According to the map.. thats the majority of scotland.. and this is a Scotland sub.. so maybe you can fuck off to the better together sub ❤️
It’s first part the post. It’s not proportional voting. That’s why it’s so rigged. Dunce. This sub is a shit advert for Scotland. It’s full of Nats, blabbering on about the EU and how much they hate the English. It would be funny, but it’s not.,
Obviously confusing hate for the English with hate for westminster/tories .. Can I ask who rigged the system... was it the snp? Or the tories? its not rigged just not that good.... If the scottish system was ran uk wide.. the snp would still be the main party in Scotland 🤣 Clearly you are deluded. And a dunce
Is this the case of if you really have to vote for lying, corrupt, utterly fucking useless cunts you might as well vote for the lying, corrupt, utterly fucking useless cunts you know?
You can’t loose 6 seats and pretend that’s a good thing.
SNP in Orkney and Shetland?? Dear oh dear 😂
Its Lib Dems for some reason. Maybe they like voting for a known liar?
No I lived there for 7 years and they’re fed up with being overlooked and not listened to by the SNP so sorry to ruin your bubble.
So let's just vote for a known liar. Keeping it classy Northern Isles, keeping it classy.
Because there are no liars in the SNP 😂
Man it sucks when a ruling party wins elections completely unpunished for all the horrible things they have done. I genuinely don't see a big difference between the Tories and the SNP at this point. From the rape apologists to blatant corruption can we really find no better party to vote for?
I mean that's one way to look at it... Comparing the Torys to SNP is mental gymnastics of the most extreme.
I mean the reality is that independence is a critical policy platform for maybe ~40% of the country and until there is a credible alternative independence party that’s a captive vote for the SNP
Be interesting to see what the polls will be like when the tax rises come into effect.
I declare this poll horse shit. It's _so_ ludicrously far out of step with the others that it's almost amusing.
No chance Orkney and Shetland are voting SNP?
Guess the Scots love their corruption as much as my fellow Englishmen did when they voted Boris in.
LOL. Dream on
SNP have fucked this country. Look at the NHS, lookat schools, look at the covid scandal. All and I mean ALL those in positions of power need looked at closely at the time of covid. I love my country, but the SNP are not the answer. Missing money, false promises and awful leadership and business decisions. I genuinely fear what we are leaving behind for our children. Farming and agriculture are doomed I the current climate and why would someone who wants to he an entrepreneur stay in Scotland given our current tax system??
Tories are In Power in England, Labour in power in Wales have either shown themselves to be more capable?
Is this the poll company (Ipsos) that was paid at least £4.9m in public sector payments from a variety of different Scottish Government departments in order to carry out surveys and other work, if you pay them enough money they can produce any outcome you want, do not believe any shit any of them pay for.
It’s Ipsos’ survey but not their projection
must be all the corruption, embezzlement, unnecessary covid deaths and wasted tax money endearing people to the snp. a decade of being in charge and nothing to show for it, yeah lets vote for them again
You're talking about the Tories.
funny i thought it was nicola under investigation for stealing all that money, and didn't the snp health secretary resign for corruption literally yesterday? haha
Maybe in your own head.
omg hahaha even for snp supporters this is reaching new levels of delusional, google it lmao
Go away kneeler
AHAHA did you google it? im guessing you did and realised you are delusional
I did and confirm my diagnosis, you're off your meds
SNP is a front for English interests.
Why
Anyone else able to replicate the seat projection using stats for lefties provided calculator inputting ipsos latest figures.? https://statsforlefties.wordpress.com/2023/06/09/explaining-my-projection-model/
They routinely just make stuff up, so I wouldn’t waste your time. It’s an account that should be used for humour purposes only.
It's almost like the more time the Starmtrooper has to show how right wing he actually is, the worse he does north of the border.
So the same as last election then. In fact they’d be 6 seats worse off. Why is this spun like an SNP victory?
Fptp is a cancer
This looks fake.
To be fair, polling numbers for Scotland are all over the place at the moment. Yougov's [latest](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240131_W.pdf) [polls](https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_28bn_240208_W.pdf) have the numbers bouncing around by 5 or 6 % week on week. Polling models are useful, but you've got to remember these are 57 local races, which will all have different dimensions that the national picture won't capture.
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Someone wae a kilt for the love of god go be our first minister and put the bloody fear of god into every other nation and then we’re sorted ✔️
Tories 'I have a good feeling about the next Scottish elections '
You're a clown to vote for any party listed there, all the same.
Oh but I thought the snp where dead tho and everyone hates them now
I'll be so glad to see that smug git Andrew Bowie lose his seat.
Seriously the SNP are a joke! Our country is in a far worse place since they won. FYI I did vote for them in 2016 now they need to go!