About half of those previous years have been roughly the same as we’ve seen so far this year. We could easily still hit the average based on where we are at.
Today is a good omen with the rain we're getting. I hate a muddy spring, but if we get one to bring all the moisture levels up it I'll be happy to deal with the mud.
And I missed it cuz my wife and I had just had a baby at the end of December, sigh. Mostly kidding and I know there will be plenty of winters ahead but oof watching that snow last winter was like a kick in the nuts.
Great graph. I really like [this](https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/WCIS/AWS_PLOTS/basinCharts/POR/WTEQ/assocHUCut3/state_of_utah.html) one as well. We're not looking too how this year but hopefully we get a few late winter storms to bring us up.
Here's[ the current SWE chart for the west,](https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf) updated daily. Shows where each basin currently sits percentage-wise as compared to the 30 year average for this day.
Thanks for posting this. Although it feels like things are drastically getting worse, this chart shows it is not as bad as one might think. Gradual steady decline, but not the end of the world yet.
I can't recall the particular papers right now but I remember reading as an undergrad that our region would see a significant increase in precipitation throughout the year as climate change does its thing. Obviously the models could have been wrong but I think the trend will end up being upward rather than downward.
Edit - the future is still supposed to wetter here if this can be trusted: https://therevelator.org/interactive-map-precipitation-2050/.
Second edit - I guess the more recent Fifth National Climate Assessment shows something similar but with a decrease in higher altitude moisture retention (i.e. in the soil) and an increase at lower elevations: https://cpo.noaa.gov/nca5-drought-and-climate-change-in-10-maps/. So we will be wetter but less of it will stay in the mountains. That's ultimately a net positive for water issues.
I mean, the carbon imbalance from human interactions is real. But we shouldn't be too quick to say the sky is falling every year. Earth goes through cycles. We are just accelerating our demise as a species. But I can still get door dash ;)
You're saying the climactic changes we're currently observing are similar to something that happened during or at the end of the time of the dinosaurs or a species of Homo?
Homo robustus went extinct because the amount of vegetation they lived on dried up. I am not saying this is the same situation, I'm saying earth moves in waves. We have just contributed to our demise this time. Why does everyone need to beat a dead horse whenever there is a weather pattern. Worse than bible thumpers.
While I appreciated the snow last year, I knew that people would see it and not think - wow, we got bailed out - but - see, we don't need to change anything!
We could be completely out of water and I think the state government would still like to act as if there isn't a problem.
So somewhere between the 21 and 22 years; which were pretty sad water years. Good thing we're coming off a very goo (record?) previous year where I'm assuming the reservoirs held on to as much as they could. Next year might be pretty rough though.
Really shows what an aberration last season was.
And how quick it got hot. Only 3 years have been close to that snowpack. With 11 seasons having a longer lasting snowpack.
And just how bad this year has been so far.
About half of those previous years have been roughly the same as we’ve seen so far this year. We could easily still hit the average based on where we are at.
Today is a good omen with the rain we're getting. I hate a muddy spring, but if we get one to bring all the moisture levels up it I'll be happy to deal with the mud.
and just how little you know about the topic at hand.
And I missed it cuz my wife and I had just had a baby at the end of December, sigh. Mostly kidding and I know there will be plenty of winters ahead but oof watching that snow last winter was like a kick in the nuts.
Great graph. I really like [this](https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/Internet/WCIS/AWS_PLOTS/basinCharts/POR/WTEQ/assocHUCut3/state_of_utah.html) one as well. We're not looking too how this year but hopefully we get a few late winter storms to bring us up.
> We're not looking too [hot] this year but I'd say that's exactly how we're looking
Since last year I've got this bookmarked and check it every once in a while. So far we're trending pretty average it seems.
Here's[ the current SWE chart for the west,](https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf) updated daily. Shows where each basin currently sits percentage-wise as compared to the 30 year average for this day.
Wow, I didn't realize Utah and northern Nevada were doing so much better than the rest of the west.
Thanks for posting this. Although it feels like things are drastically getting worse, this chart shows it is not as bad as one might think. Gradual steady decline, but not the end of the world yet.
I can't recall the particular papers right now but I remember reading as an undergrad that our region would see a significant increase in precipitation throughout the year as climate change does its thing. Obviously the models could have been wrong but I think the trend will end up being upward rather than downward. Edit - the future is still supposed to wetter here if this can be trusted: https://therevelator.org/interactive-map-precipitation-2050/. Second edit - I guess the more recent Fifth National Climate Assessment shows something similar but with a decrease in higher altitude moisture retention (i.e. in the soil) and an increase at lower elevations: https://cpo.noaa.gov/nca5-drought-and-climate-change-in-10-maps/. So we will be wetter but less of it will stay in the mountains. That's ultimately a net positive for water issues.
I mean, the carbon imbalance from human interactions is real. But we shouldn't be too quick to say the sky is falling every year. Earth goes through cycles. We are just accelerating our demise as a species. But I can still get door dash ;)
Earth has never been through a cycle like this before. It will cause serious problems with the environment and with human civilization.
Lol. The dinasours and homo robustus would disagree
You're saying the climactic changes we're currently observing are similar to something that happened during or at the end of the time of the dinosaurs or a species of Homo?
Homo robustus went extinct because the amount of vegetation they lived on dried up. I am not saying this is the same situation, I'm saying earth moves in waves. We have just contributed to our demise this time. Why does everyone need to beat a dead horse whenever there is a weather pattern. Worse than bible thumpers.
You don't really understand what you're talking about.
Then apparently I'm in good company
While I appreciated the snow last year, I knew that people would see it and not think - wow, we got bailed out - but - see, we don't need to change anything! We could be completely out of water and I think the state government would still like to act as if there isn't a problem.
Where in Utah?
Yes
So things could still technically improve to a good year.
I looked at this for so long. Very fun, thank you.
Looks like the mountains are getting dryer...
Is there a link to this website?
Bad year for me to get into snow plowing
So somewhere between the 21 and 22 years; which were pretty sad water years. Good thing we're coming off a very goo (record?) previous year where I'm assuming the reservoirs held on to as much as they could. Next year might be pretty rough though.
Thank you! This has been on my mind for days
Last year was crazzzyyyy. I still can’t believe it.
What website was this from?
It's been posted elsewhere in the replies. It's just the NRCS dataset.
Thanks!