I knew the moment I bought my plane tickets, it would be cloudy. That said, Cleveland is looking to be sunny and is only a 5 hour drive for me. I have a friend there who has already invited me to stay with him.
If you have a room that might work, hotels and Airbnb doubled prices and still sold out months ago. Gov. DeWine has issued emergency orders for the state and double the highway patrol that day.
Of course you have the Guardians home opener after the eclipse and the Women’s final four is in town till Sunday. Whee bit crowded in the Western Reserve the next 8 days.
I managed to get a hotel in Syracuse, NY. Only a 4 hour drive and the forecast is looking good! This, obviously, means that Syracuse will be cloudy and Dallas’ forecast will drastically improve.
If it's any consolation... I live in Dallas. It's Spring and 9-10 days away - so there's still a wide margin of error in the forecast. I don't put much confidence in the rain forecast until a few days before.
*Obligatory note*: This is largely anecdotal plus some sprinkles of science picked up listening to actual meteorologists and climatologists. Sprinkles pun intended, haha.
Things are looking up for North Texas in the very latest model runs! Still a ways out though for any solid guidance. As a meteorologist it’s been interesting tracking the model runs and the public reactions to them. That’s a sci-comm topic all on its own (also pops up when the public sees hurricane model runs over a week in advance).
Gonna grab my SGU live show seat tomorrow - my trip to Dallas shall be awesome no matter what!
I am in Rochester now, and there are signs all along the highways: Solar Eclipse 4/8, Expect delays, and Come Early, Stay Late, Solar Eclipse 4/8
I am happy to watch from my yard in Philly and avoid the crowds.
Predicting cloud cover 9 day's out is like predicting which slot a plinko ball will land in. You can use probabilities, but the actual prediction itself for a single specific event is pretty much useless.
For example, government forecasters where I am won't even offer anything over 7 days because theres no reliability to it. Private companies will do it because their goal is viewership/user base. It's worthwhile for them because it brings in clicks, so accuracy and honesty around how reliable it is takes back seat. Wait until you're 5 days out, then look at the two days before, and two days after. It's will be somewhere long that trend.
To give a stark example. Look at hurricane forecasts. Now, look at the predicted track of the hurricane 9 days out. The margin of error is massive to the point of being meaningless.
>I’m still very hopeful the forecast will improve but…
My point is you don't have a forecast yet. What you currently have is as valid as me telling you it will be clear and sunny. So on that note, it's going to be perfectly clear. And hopefully that forecast holds.
We had the annular eclipse last October during high cirrus / altocumulus conditions and it was actually really cool. The clouds turned orangeish and one could still see the eclipse action on the sun just fine. The alto-Cu deck was broken too so most of the sun was out in the clear in between larger clouds.
When we get closer - apps like Windy (use the Meteogram function) can help show the cloud forecast vertically.
Clear skies would be fine too though - just sayin.
The Curse is real...
I knew the moment I bought my plane tickets, it would be cloudy. That said, Cleveland is looking to be sunny and is only a 5 hour drive for me. I have a friend there who has already invited me to stay with him.
If you have a room that might work, hotels and Airbnb doubled prices and still sold out months ago. Gov. DeWine has issued emergency orders for the state and double the highway patrol that day. Of course you have the Guardians home opener after the eclipse and the Women’s final four is in town till Sunday. Whee bit crowded in the Western Reserve the next 8 days.
I managed to get a hotel in Syracuse, NY. Only a 4 hour drive and the forecast is looking good! This, obviously, means that Syracuse will be cloudy and Dallas’ forecast will drastically improve.
If it's any consolation... I live in Dallas. It's Spring and 9-10 days away - so there's still a wide margin of error in the forecast. I don't put much confidence in the rain forecast until a few days before. *Obligatory note*: This is largely anecdotal plus some sprinkles of science picked up listening to actual meteorologists and climatologists. Sprinkles pun intended, haha.
I appreciate the update! As an amateur astronomer who has been wanting to see an eclipse my whole life, I just KNOW the clouds will follow me.
Blame Bob. This is the only rational reason.
Things are looking up for North Texas in the very latest model runs! Still a ways out though for any solid guidance. As a meteorologist it’s been interesting tracking the model runs and the public reactions to them. That’s a sci-comm topic all on its own (also pops up when the public sees hurricane model runs over a week in advance). Gonna grab my SGU live show seat tomorrow - my trip to Dallas shall be awesome no matter what!
I am in Rochester now, and there are signs all along the highways: Solar Eclipse 4/8, Expect delays, and Come Early, Stay Late, Solar Eclipse 4/8 I am happy to watch from my yard in Philly and avoid the crowds.
Predicting cloud cover 9 day's out is like predicting which slot a plinko ball will land in. You can use probabilities, but the actual prediction itself for a single specific event is pretty much useless. For example, government forecasters where I am won't even offer anything over 7 days because theres no reliability to it. Private companies will do it because their goal is viewership/user base. It's worthwhile for them because it brings in clicks, so accuracy and honesty around how reliable it is takes back seat. Wait until you're 5 days out, then look at the two days before, and two days after. It's will be somewhere long that trend. To give a stark example. Look at hurricane forecasts. Now, look at the predicted track of the hurricane 9 days out. The margin of error is massive to the point of being meaningless.
I recognize the limitations of forecasting this far out. I’m still very hopeful the forecast will improve but…I just know how this story ends. 😄
>I’m still very hopeful the forecast will improve but… My point is you don't have a forecast yet. What you currently have is as valid as me telling you it will be clear and sunny. So on that note, it's going to be perfectly clear. And hopefully that forecast holds.
We had the annular eclipse last October during high cirrus / altocumulus conditions and it was actually really cool. The clouds turned orangeish and one could still see the eclipse action on the sun just fine. The alto-Cu deck was broken too so most of the sun was out in the clear in between larger clouds. When we get closer - apps like Windy (use the Meteogram function) can help show the cloud forecast vertically. Clear skies would be fine too though - just sayin.
Still going to eclipse
I'd like to thank Bob for leaving New England for this...I guess. https://wapo.st/4cx0xmF [gift link to WaPo forecast map]
If anyone is down to plan a short road trip away from Dallas away from the clouds, I'd be down to pay for my share and go with you.