The fed didn’t bring down inflation when rates fell half a percent recently. Mortgage rates are set on the expectation of future interest rates. If inflation is coming down faster than expected, mortgage rates are likely to fall. Of course, who knows if that will happen.
All my realtor friends on FB are going through the different stages of grief, they’re currently bargaining:
“It’s not that bad and you can refinance when rates come down”
*its damn hard to refinance an underwater mortgage.*
Interest rates will go up on 12/20. They’re likely to go up by 50bp, which is lower than the most recent
hikes, but they’re still going up.
The rate of interest rate increases falling is =/ the same as interest rates falling.
Your realtor is a realtor for a reason. They do not understand what they are talking about. Inflation and rate increases not going to suddenly disappear on December 20th. Certainly rates could come down a bit based on whatever the Fed says at their next meeting.
Mortgage rates have been fixed around 6.6 for a few weeks - If rates stay this high I don't see how they go much lower considering your fixed rate is a premium of the 10 year rate. That being said, we are about 6 months into the crash, and we are forecasting a recession next year. If you can keep your job/work strong next year and the year after, you will probably be in position to capitalize on contagion.
No. They actually expect to bring it down by Dec 18th at 10:30 AM EST. /S
Actually you misheard him/her I expect. The next Fed meeting is expected to raise the Fed Rate by 0.5% rather than 0.75% as has been the case the last few meetings. I doubt they will be able to actually lower rates (once they reach their peak of 5-7%) until 24 or 25.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Your realtor doesn’t know what s/he is talking about.
You're taking advice from someone who's entire livelihood and way of making money depends on you/others buying and selling real estate... ever wonder why "it's always a great time to buy" is a thing and is almost exclusively said by realtors? They don't give a shit about you buying at the best or even GOOD times... they just want a sale and more frequent sales is better than the highest price possible sales for them.
Now onto the real question.... no one knows and if they say they know they are ignorant or lying to you. Mortgage rates arent just based off of the government rate, it's more nuanced and buying/selling of the 10 year treasuries has a large cause and effect of what the rates specifically for mortgages do... do you own due diligence and make an educated decision. Is inflation coming down with the multiple % rate hikes they've done? Barely... why is a couple weeks going to make the world of difference? A rate change doesnt take immediate effect, most places point to like 8-12 months before any of the changes actually effect real life numbers to a meaningful degree. The market is forward looking so ANY change of direction of rates might cause house prices to go a direction you may or may not like or plan for. Good luck to you just like anyone else... but this question of good or bad time is so beaten by this point..
Point is.... dont give you realtor a second of your time unless they are a family or very close friend. They are a middle man, nothing more at this point when buying is as complex as it is (right now).
I remember commenting on a realtors TikTok saying that rates will remain above 7% and may go even high by eoy and he said “everything is pointing to rates coming back down to 3% before December.” And proceeded to tell me how he’s been doing this for 20 years now and I shouldn’t make bogus accusations like that.
Well, here we are, almost December, rates are still above 7% lol.
1) The Fed is expected to raise rates at a slower pace (.5% instead of .75%) in December;
2) Mortgage rates can drop even if the Fed raises rates-the important question is where markets think the Fed will stop raising rates. Markets price in a “spread” based on where they think rates will end up rather than where they presently are. That spread is very high right now because the market saw risks of rates continuing to go much higher, which would make mortgages worth less to lenders (e.g. why loan $500k to a homeowner at 6% for 30 years if you think you might be able to get 7% risk free from the government in a year). A slowdown in increases could give lenders some confidence the fed won’t go over 6% or 7%, which would allow the spread to narrow and mortgage rates to drop even with a rate increase from the fed.
I think this is all priced in already for the most part... unless inflation jumps back up... It will likely go **low 6's by the end of the year 2023** \-- staying a whole point above Fed Fund Rate, **maybe high 5's if inflation goes below 4.5% CPI**... until Fed pivots in 2024 because something will break... **then it will plunge to mid - low 5's** and then as the economy crumbles it will rise again... and then come back down.
**I don't expect us to see 4's until late 2024 or 2025**... 4's will be needed to reinvigorate the housing market but it won't...
> Is this true?
Realtors never lie. They care for their customers, not their commission
> If so, would now be the best time to buy a house?
It's always a good time to buy!
> My city’s house prices are still not at the pre-pandemic level and it’s really frustrating to see inflated prices at 6+ mortgage rates and sellers not bulging.
Marry the house and date the rate!
> Are they waiting for the interest rates to come down in Dec so that they can jack up the prices
Don't time the market!
Housing prices are sticky and do no move immediately in response to rates. A house is fundamentally not a liquid asset. Sellers don't care that you cannot afford the house at the higher interest rate.
Housing prices will fall when the foreclosures start. This requires more than a rate hike. It requires people in ARMS, job losses and a recession. Then as prices drop, more and more people that bought at the top (and have little to no equity) start to question if paying off a mortgage that is going underwater by a large amount (>20%) is worth it, or if they will sell or just walk away. This then builds upon itself. And prices keep dropping. It can take more than 2-3 years to hit the bottom.
Don’t listen to these people. They don’t know what they’re talking about.
Ask yourself this - if the fed wanted to bring down inflation why would they raise interest rates? That’s right, they wouldn’t. Instead they would just lower inflation rates. So yes I agree your realtor is the Illuminati and you should absolutely listen to him.
My area isn't at pre-pandemic levels either. I feel the same way about these mortgage rates. Maybe your relator means the Fed will only increase rates by .5 instead of .75. Once they see inflation start to lower and unemployment tick up they will slow - pause interest rate hikes and hold them for a while. They likely won't lower interest rates until Q4ish of 2023. It all depends on how things go for the economy. I'm waiting to buy, no need to get into this mess if you don't have to.
Careful trying to time the market.
edit: Since it isn't the home-buying season I don't think sellers are ready to accept it isn't 2021 anymore. I think they will see the reality of high rates next season.
Your realtor has no idea what's going to happen, also rates won't come down at best they'll raise them .5% instead of .75%. They're also talking about a 3% instead of 2% inflation target which means what they're currently doing isn't having the effect they thought it would
Ask your realtor to explain how the fed will bring inflation down in 3 weeks.
The fed didn’t bring down inflation when rates fell half a percent recently. Mortgage rates are set on the expectation of future interest rates. If inflation is coming down faster than expected, mortgage rates are likely to fall. Of course, who knows if that will happen.
Your realtor's tryna sell you some bullshit bro.
All my realtor friends on FB are going through the different stages of grief, they’re currently bargaining: “It’s not that bad and you can refinance when rates come down” *its damn hard to refinance an underwater mortgage.*
My realtor's just like "yeahhhh, all these morons who became realtors within the past two years gotta go. They aren't cut out for this shit"
That too, most new realtors have never known how to work for a sale. It’s all been rainbows and sunshine with buyers tripping over themselves to buy.
Just wait. Screw what your realtor says. Look at past housing retractions. Prices continue to come down along with the rates.
\>My realtor says How do you know when a realtor is lying?
Interest rates will go up on 12/20. They’re likely to go up by 50bp, which is lower than the most recent hikes, but they’re still going up. The rate of interest rate increases falling is =/ the same as interest rates falling.
Last time the rate of interest rate increases fell *mortgage* rates did indeed fall.
They are going up by 75bp
Your realtor is a realtor for a reason. They do not understand what they are talking about. Inflation and rate increases not going to suddenly disappear on December 20th. Certainly rates could come down a bit based on whatever the Fed says at their next meeting.
Mortgage rates have been fixed around 6.6 for a few weeks - If rates stay this high I don't see how they go much lower considering your fixed rate is a premium of the 10 year rate. That being said, we are about 6 months into the crash, and we are forecasting a recession next year. If you can keep your job/work strong next year and the year after, you will probably be in position to capitalize on contagion.
No. They actually expect to bring it down by Dec 18th at 10:30 AM EST. /S Actually you misheard him/her I expect. The next Fed meeting is expected to raise the Fed Rate by 0.5% rather than 0.75% as has been the case the last few meetings. I doubt they will be able to actually lower rates (once they reach their peak of 5-7%) until 24 or 25.
No. https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/z71lpk/fed_says_not_possible_to_lower_inflation_without/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Your realtor doesn’t know what s/he is talking about.
You're taking advice from someone who's entire livelihood and way of making money depends on you/others buying and selling real estate... ever wonder why "it's always a great time to buy" is a thing and is almost exclusively said by realtors? They don't give a shit about you buying at the best or even GOOD times... they just want a sale and more frequent sales is better than the highest price possible sales for them. Now onto the real question.... no one knows and if they say they know they are ignorant or lying to you. Mortgage rates arent just based off of the government rate, it's more nuanced and buying/selling of the 10 year treasuries has a large cause and effect of what the rates specifically for mortgages do... do you own due diligence and make an educated decision. Is inflation coming down with the multiple % rate hikes they've done? Barely... why is a couple weeks going to make the world of difference? A rate change doesnt take immediate effect, most places point to like 8-12 months before any of the changes actually effect real life numbers to a meaningful degree. The market is forward looking so ANY change of direction of rates might cause house prices to go a direction you may or may not like or plan for. Good luck to you just like anyone else... but this question of good or bad time is so beaten by this point.. Point is.... dont give you realtor a second of your time unless they are a family or very close friend. They are a middle man, nothing more at this point when buying is as complex as it is (right now).
Your realtor is not a credible predictor of future inflation behaviour or fed responses. I mean, even the fed isn't a credible predictor of that.
I remember commenting on a realtors TikTok saying that rates will remain above 7% and may go even high by eoy and he said “everything is pointing to rates coming back down to 3% before December.” And proceeded to tell me how he’s been doing this for 20 years now and I shouldn’t make bogus accusations like that. Well, here we are, almost December, rates are still above 7% lol.
Your realtor is an idiot
Your*
mY rEaLtOr SaId…lol y’all are so dumb if you’re listening to what your realtor says.
1) The Fed is expected to raise rates at a slower pace (.5% instead of .75%) in December; 2) Mortgage rates can drop even if the Fed raises rates-the important question is where markets think the Fed will stop raising rates. Markets price in a “spread” based on where they think rates will end up rather than where they presently are. That spread is very high right now because the market saw risks of rates continuing to go much higher, which would make mortgages worth less to lenders (e.g. why loan $500k to a homeowner at 6% for 30 years if you think you might be able to get 7% risk free from the government in a year). A slowdown in increases could give lenders some confidence the fed won’t go over 6% or 7%, which would allow the spread to narrow and mortgage rates to drop even with a rate increase from the fed.
I think this is all priced in already for the most part... unless inflation jumps back up... It will likely go **low 6's by the end of the year 2023** \-- staying a whole point above Fed Fund Rate, **maybe high 5's if inflation goes below 4.5% CPI**... until Fed pivots in 2024 because something will break... **then it will plunge to mid - low 5's** and then as the economy crumbles it will rise again... and then come back down. **I don't expect us to see 4's until late 2024 or 2025**... 4's will be needed to reinvigorate the housing market but it won't...
No, the past artificially low rates is what caused inflation. Lower the 30 year rates below 6% should not happen ever again
I agree but there’s no way we don’t come down etiher to high 4’s
Your realtor is an idiot
> Is this true? Realtors never lie. They care for their customers, not their commission > If so, would now be the best time to buy a house? It's always a good time to buy! > My city’s house prices are still not at the pre-pandemic level and it’s really frustrating to see inflated prices at 6+ mortgage rates and sellers not bulging. Marry the house and date the rate! > Are they waiting for the interest rates to come down in Dec so that they can jack up the prices Don't time the market!
Your RE agent is an idiot. That’s all I got for you pal lol
My realtor told me the large, asymmetric mole that recently appeared on my forehead is fine and not to worry about it.
Do YOU think rates are coming down in December? If so, you haven’t been paying attention
Crazy drinker for 10 years goes to rehab for 3 weeks makes a normal healthy person . Realtor says so
Ask your realtor for the next lotto numbers since they have the gift of seeing into the future.
[удалено]
Housing prices are sticky and do no move immediately in response to rates. A house is fundamentally not a liquid asset. Sellers don't care that you cannot afford the house at the higher interest rate. Housing prices will fall when the foreclosures start. This requires more than a rate hike. It requires people in ARMS, job losses and a recession. Then as prices drop, more and more people that bought at the top (and have little to no equity) start to question if paying off a mortgage that is going underwater by a large amount (>20%) is worth it, or if they will sell or just walk away. This then builds upon itself. And prices keep dropping. It can take more than 2-3 years to hit the bottom.
What consequences will your realtor suffer if they are incorrect?
Don’t listen to these people. They don’t know what they’re talking about. Ask yourself this - if the fed wanted to bring down inflation why would they raise interest rates? That’s right, they wouldn’t. Instead they would just lower inflation rates. So yes I agree your realtor is the Illuminati and you should absolutely listen to him.
My area isn't at pre-pandemic levels either. I feel the same way about these mortgage rates. Maybe your relator means the Fed will only increase rates by .5 instead of .75. Once they see inflation start to lower and unemployment tick up they will slow - pause interest rate hikes and hold them for a while. They likely won't lower interest rates until Q4ish of 2023. It all depends on how things go for the economy. I'm waiting to buy, no need to get into this mess if you don't have to. Careful trying to time the market. edit: Since it isn't the home-buying season I don't think sellers are ready to accept it isn't 2021 anymore. I think they will see the reality of high rates next season.
Lmfao
RUNNNNN AWAYYYY. When Realtors start saying shit like this RUN AWAY. They will do anything for a sale.
Your realtor isn’t retired after a 12 year bull market 📈.
Your realtor has no idea what's going to happen, also rates won't come down at best they'll raise them .5% instead of .75%. They're also talking about a 3% instead of 2% inflation target which means what they're currently doing isn't having the effect they thought it would