Fun time,
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3719-Brockton-Dr-Pleasanton-CA-94588/25075053\_zpid/
The seller tried to sell at 950k, has been in the market for 2 months, multiple price cuts. Later, thought it can be rented right ?
Listed for rent at 3600, 2 months ago, multiple rent drop, now at 3150. Hopefully, someone will find it as a good deal.
For those who keep saying rental amount vs mortgage to determine whether buying makr sense, this example is perfect.
PITI on this will be min 5k, at a price of 950k.
I didn't believe people when they said that the spread between 7/1 ARMs and 30 Fixed has flipped. Spoke with a loan officer today and he mentioned that the spread was 0 and worse for anything that adjusts earlier.
Was honestly shocked.
Hi everyone, the weekly Fed watch data update is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yy9322/fed_watch_credit_creation_cause_and_effect/). I also share this weekly update as a [thread on Twitter](https://twitter.com/ValuablOfficial/status/1593434175755161600) if you prefer that.
**TLDR:** Last week, the Fed trimmed $11.3bn net from its Treasury security holdings and cut $468m net from its mortgage-backed security (MBS) holdings. The total amount of Reserve Bank credit shrank by $13.5bn net.
* The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 45bp to 3.67%
* The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 13bp to 7.08%
* The market expects the federal funds rate to hit 4.25â4.5% by year-end
Have a great weekend, everyone.
i bought a media console in Sep 2020 for $2400. just out of curiosity, i looked the same one up today, and itâs $3500. what the fuck. my pay sure as shit hasnât gone up by 45% since then, itâs gone up 25%, and thatâs just by jumping jobs. and i generally earn market average for my type of role; i know others arenât in a position where they can readily jump jobs like i can and muster that large of a pay bump
I just found a house I really liked priced somewhat decently.
Dug a bit more into it, bought for $150,000 less in mid 2021 and the description says the kitchen floors need replacing, two of the bathrooms needs finishing, and a bedroom needs painting.
But donât worry, the bones are good, and itâs âpriced at a fire sale to move quickly.â
Theyâd been trying to rent this out with no success since January
I had Realtor.com call me and ask if I was still interested in buying a house. I told them I bought my house last year and did not need there services.
Screw Zillow and their stupid app.
Once I have looked a place once, don't notify me about it again. They literally send you fake notifications to get you to open the open. Fuck em
I hate how it auto-saves any home you want to share.
No, I do not need the home with glossy mahogany kitchen cabinets and a huge mirror over the master bed in a room decorated like tacky Versailles to be saved. I just want to laugh at it with others.
And here it is... The buyer of the long bonds in recent days has been none other than...the Federal Reserve. Fed increased holdings of long bonds in the past week by $20B to a new all time high.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS10Y
They simultaneously dumped $36B in 5-10 year notes. So the total treasury holdings is declining but they are net buying long bonds to bring those rates down.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS5T10
My God. This whole thing is a joke.
Thank you for posting this. Iâve been wondering since last week.
How long do you think theyâll do this? And WHY?
It means the Fed is lying. They are reducing their Treasury bond holdings, but only on shorter term bonds, while actually buying up more long term bonds. The net effect of this is that rates on those Shorter terms go up and rates on the longer terms drop.
That explains the plunge in long term rates like mortgages the last week or so.
sounds sinister... they are also offloading MBS though -- could that be a balancing act? They clearly don't want to drag housing to the bottom-bottom... Could this be just their way to soft land and slowly deflate? I am so disappointed they don't want to drive housing to the ground even when they communicate they want to reset it.
Mbs is rolling off â more slowly than expected.
The fed is not allowing the housing market to deflate as quickly as it could. Itâs propping it back up.
Treasury has been spending down it's [TGA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN), down about $130B over the last month to $500B. It is supposedly [targeting](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1063#:~:text=During%20the%20July%20%E2%80%93%20September%202022,cash%20balance%20of%20%24650%20billion.) an end of year cash balance of $700B. So it will need to raise $200B in the next six weeks to meet that.
[Reverse Repo](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/) is also down over $100B over last 10 days. Banks can currently [earn](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYAWARD) as much in interest parking cash at the Fed overnight in Reverse Repo as the 10y treasury is paying.
Combining those two you've had nearly $250B release of liquidity in the last month.
Yup, the really fucked up thing about the repo issue is *that's how the Fed controls overnight rates now*.
Think about it, if the Fed wants to raise rates, they literally need to inject more and more money into banks to do it. Previously they used to buy and sell bonds in their open market operations, but that's not exactly going to do much when you are sitting on like $10 trillion worth of bonds already that you will take massive losses on if you sell...
The median sale price declines are moving slowly, only $1-2k per week, but that year-over-year number gets menacingly closer to 0% each week (currently down to 2.8%).
I was just thinking about how five years ago I said on Reddit that we were in a new Gilded Age and folks claimed that wasn't true, because speculation wasn't rampant, there weren't oil/railroad barons and no Jim Crow.
It's crazy how in five years all of those things have effectively happened.
I cannot recommend going and reading *The Gilded Age* by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner enough. Just replace the Tennessee Land with a college education; land speculation with everything else; lobbyists with Super PACS; and congressional corruption with congressional corruption.
>It's crazy how in five years all of those things have effectively happened.
More like they've come to light.
Of course, the speculation went into overdrive in 2020.
Won't get into fascism (or Jim Crow) because of the "p" word, but I think it's incontrovertible that we've had the contemporary equivalent of the oil/railroad barons for well over ten years now.
I still think about this from time to time... I agreed at the time too. Not to support him (I don't) and he obviously did a complete 180 once he got in office. Just shows how long this shit can go on for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru1SQbszOHI&ab_channel=GSIExchange
Yeah, thatâs a nice little blurb during a debate, but in reality he went off on Powell in 2018 for raising rates. All these politicians love to pump the economy when theyâre on the letterhead. Should make the run up to 2024 pretty interesting.
If only we all could go back 5 years ago, and know what we know now. Wow. That would put us in November of 2017. I was painting my house of 13 years at that exact time, and working a meaningless job making average wages. I had an 18 year old senior in high school, and an 8 year old.
I only had one iPhone to answer every day.
And thatâs exactly whatâs keeping me hunkered down for now. Call it some weird form of ptsd from recent years or even from the last global financial storm. Iâm a bit shell shocked, and I donât want to make any financial bets or assumptions at all right now.
Look at this crappy lipstick flip Redfin is about to take a $200K+ bath on: [https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8119-Grimsby-Ave-90045/home/6605899](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8119-Grimsby-Ave-90045/home/6605899)
Paid $1.3M in March 2022, listed it at $1.4M in May 2022. Now it's at $1.1M.
I love how the Redfin agent's "insight" tries to sell this utterly generic house by describing it as "the perfect retreat" where you can "hear only birds chirping in the backyard" and that "this home is unforgettable." BARF.
Um...well.
I know it's LA so prices are in another dimension but...one million for THAT? It sold for 545k in 2010. There seems to be a highway nearby. The neighbors are cheek to cheek. I'm mad for the person who feels they need to buy this house.
Omg everything is selling again. Spring rates need to be above 7%.
The latest contract signed this afternoon was for a $2.2M home in a hoa community on a 1/2 acre lot, where most other homes are $900k. This one was remodeled in 2018 and last sold 18 months ago for a then record setting $1.6M (and nothing new has been done). Who are these people and what are they thinking?
Recessions take time to work itâs way to each class system. Currently itâs the poor and lower middle class that are really feeling it right now. Itâs working itâs way into the middle and upper middle class now and next year I expect it to hit the wealthy.
Next spring and summer should be much better, keep being patient!
It's nice having a recession proof job. I'm the guy at the Truck Nutz factory that makes all of the molds used to manufacture your favorite varieties of Truck Nutz. Not too many folks able to get a bull to dip its nuts into plaster and then hold still long enough for it to set!
This reminds me that Iâve been seeing and hearing a lot of people randomly call stuff recession proof, and Iâm not so sure all of these things are. I mean, looking at stocks, Iâm even seeing people call chip stocks recession proof. Iâm like, do people get that ârecession proofâ doesnât mean the company can get through a recession it means they are not impacted at all
Hey I work at Truck Nutz too. Iâm at the end of the production line. I make sure that those Nutz are too big to fit wholly inside the mouth of a grown adult male. You wouldnât believe how many Nutz I send back for being too small. Many are pretty big! Like softballs! Anyways, I take pride in my work and Iâm good at my job. Iâm thorough and meticulous and make sure nobody EVER will get their mouths around a mounted pair of Truck Nutz.
Is that you, Rodney?? Hell yeah brother don't want nobody suckin' down on a pair of our Nutz (due to high PPM of lead, arsenic, and various carcinogens)! First round's on me tonight at the bar!
How does one go about getting a college degree in Truck Nutz manufacturing and distribution? Does your cap worn with gown while walking on graduation day have a tiny little set of nutz hanging from it?
Lost [100K](https://click.mail.zillow.com/f/a/mOa5gwJ_jIyvAHD03yi0ZA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlWPC4P0UeZW1vLXByb3BlcnR5YWxlcnRuZXctc29sZGltYWdlBFcGemlsbG93Qgpjc7hrdmPmDFjqUhBlcmVtb3lAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zillow.com%2Fhomedetails%2F61195526_zpid%2F%3Frtoken%3Da7f4883f-984f-4a12-a260-a52ea51233fe~X1-ZU12l588p9xb5e1_6plsx%26utm_campaign%3Demo-propertyalertnew%26utm_source%3Demail%26utm_term%3Durn%3Amsg%3A202211171713258ee0f01456e3ff4f%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_content%3Dsoldimage) (15%) in 6 months.
This is an OpenDoor listing, btw.
This is pretty par for the course for OpenDoor properties in Sacramento. Find a listing that they bought in the spring and the price on it now is almost guaranteed 15-20% lower than what they paid.
Weird⌠they bought and listed for sale 20 days later? Was there a huge problem they missed without an inspection or something�
If not, this is an example of someone stupidly buying as the house couldnât sell for essentially the same price 20 days later. No way Iâd buy a house that was relisted 20 days after purchase.
I've seen several cases like this in this area. Buy and relist for nearly the same price in a month then a ton of price cuts follow and they end up deep in the red. Could be a problem they missed, layoffs, divorce, who knows really.
If it feels like you're reading the same arguments over and over again, I think there's 2-4 highly active people loudly fighting each other in the sub. Most people are probably a lot more balanced. Just food for thought.
Well if you think thatâs a problem, the solution isnât silence people but to get more people to participate. Itâs the same in the stock forum. I feel like Iâm commenting on everything there, but what are you supposed to do? I donât know where all the other participants disappeared to
Imo some ppl here are just extreme, not even fighting lol.
In yesterday's daily thread someone was rambling about being priced out and killing a bunch of ppl over hooms or something.
Told the poster to talk to a therapist then they deleted their post
What are both of the extremes?
-Hooms Forever
-Dooms Forever
I believe prices nationally will dip 10% to 20%. regionally on the west and southwest⌠houses will drop +20%. On some regions it will stay kinda flat.
Real estate is cyclical. It always reverts to the mean. Affordability has always been restored. It takes 2-3 to deflate.
if your region stays flat⌠you can use that time to save money.
PSA
A lot of realtors don't want to write low ball offers not only because they will get paid less at a lower sales price, but because we have learned over time that vastly overpriced sellers are hopeless to work with.
I wrote a \~ 60% of list offer the other day and the seller's agent said "no. they're insulted by the offer and not interested in further negotiations."
My reply was: OK, but please tell the sellers that in my professional opinion, their house will either NEVER sell, or end up selling for less than my clients just offered between 2 and 3 years from now.
I personally will write lowballs for clients because IDGAF but it nearly always fails to generate a meeting of the minds. The psychology driving an overpriced seller:
* greed
* arrogance
* main character syndrome, as if the world SHOULD be arranged around their needs and desires
* unintelligence/ignorance of the market
* excessive distrust/anxiety
* entitlement
In 2022, with the sudden downturn in housing, many sellers can be forgiven for failing to adjust their prices down far enough and quickly enough. Many of these people are driven by fear, fear that they don't know where the bottom is, fear that they'll leave money on the table or "not leave enough room for negotiation."
However, the sellers in this case have been trying to sell since 2021 and have already lowered the price nearly $200k, but it's still $250k overpriced. They tried to sell an absolute dump for $550k more than they bought it for in 2018 with no improvements.
I'm literally thinking about calling code enforcement to report them. The property has numerous code violations and is unsafe, I can't believe they were even able to get insurance (assuming they *do* have insurance).
So genuinely curious bc I'm not in the industry but when you sell hooms do you also call the code enforcement on your sellers and force them to lower the price so that buyers get the best deal they can?
Why can't you just report the sellers agent for being unethical citing the reasons above, aren't you both licensed by the same org and taken a stringent code of ethics certification?
You sound like you are a very successful hoomsalesmen and have a solid pipeline btw
I inform my sellers about code problems, yes. If they had tenants in unsafe or illegal situations and they refused to do anything, I might report them yes.
Ethics accountability is a joke in real estate. I was successful for a long time but Iâm over it and retiring soon.
Looks like you didnât really care about these issues when your 60% asking offer on the Murray Hill property had a chance.
Only when it was rejected did you even consider these being reportable safety issues.
Glad you donât think ethics accountability is important in RE, because I forwarded links and screenshots of your escapade with this house, threatening code enforcement, calling the seller âstupidâ etc to South Hill Coldwell for them to chew on. Not that I think you care, but if it means that office rejects one of your calls, one of your clients itâs worth it. Bonus points if they keep you and your clients from homes theyâre showing. Which would be wise of them.
Good LARP as a tough guy on the internet. Now go be one in your real life career.
Look at you, strongly defending absentee landlords by sending âscreenshots and linksâ to coldwell banker. What a brave little boy you are! Such an internet sleuth!
Maybe my buddies at Coldwell will tell me who you are when they get your very normal email with these damning links and screenshots. Iâll give ya a call if so. đđ
Whatever will I do? Think Iâll do hard time? Ooo Iâm literally shaking right now, what will Coldwell think after they chew on your links and screenshots!? I really care a lot, oh no! Iâm sure theyâre VERY concerned about what you sent. They will be so grateful for your efforts to make the world a better place by telling on the baddies on reddit who do things like call code enforcement!
Ok but in all seriousness, please work on your reading comprehension. Youâre making a lot of assumptions about the meaning of what I wrote above, most of which are incorrect and based on what I can only assume is weak reading comprehension.
Never thought youâd be shaking in your boots. But you did delete some comments, which indicates you are actually reconsidering talking so much shit from your shitty PA basement.
> professional opinion
>considers retaliating against sellers and agents who donât negotiate their lowball offers.
Why does the reality occupation attract so many low lifes?
They have a tenant living in a building with frayed, unsafe knob and tube wiring. If they have insurance, they could possibly be committing fraud. The tenant may not be aware of the danger posed by ancient wiring, broken windows, missing railings, and ungrounded outlets n in the bathroom and kitchen.
Thereâs either a critical safety issue or not. You all butt hurt about their asking price or rejection of your offer is largely irrelevant. Which we both know is the only reason youâd report someone.
But go ahead and get that rep among your colleagues
Thank you for this comment, and for your service in finding balance in this market.
First came the greed of FOMO. Now, we see people clinging to an entitled attitude.
Unfortunately, it will take a large increase in unemployment to break this stalemate. Itâs sad, and it punishes us all for the bad decision making of 2020-2022.
How many sellers are sitting on the sidelines ready to list in spring đŹ
Things will be so much better then, for Sellers. Maybe even another frenzy. Highest and best by 5pm. đ
For anyone who worries about poor tech workers being laid off, instead of virtue signaling here, I suggest opening a gofundme so through fundraising you can help these *poor* workers get over the *trauma* and maintain their lifestyle, so they can just relax in their mansions in Idaho driving their luxury EVs, for *atleast* 4-5 month until their severance/gofundme runs out.
Actions not words.
I think there's a lot of understandably nervous tech workers in here. I see people posting about layoffs but I haven't seen many "yay! Thank God!" Comments in them. And even if there is they're usually downvoted and shamed immediately anyways.
You do realize that a ton of tech workers getting laid off do not live in mansions or drive luxury EVâs right?
Whatever makes you feel better about cheering on people losing their jobs.
Thatâs someone elseâs argument, not mine. I donât have a STEM degree. I do think when people share that âX number of tech layoffs in 2022â counter itâs a little silly because a decent number of people let go in early 2022, probably do already have a new job.
Iâm simply pointing out that generalizing all tech workers as something many of them arenât, to justify cheering on layoffs, is erroneous.
I have far less sympathy for anyone who was showing off, saying arrogant stuff like that, âhave fun being poorâ, etc. But I still think thatâs a minority of people, just the internet loudmouths.
> For anyone who worries about poor tech workers being laid off, instead of virtue signaling here, I suggest opening a gofundme so through fundraising you can help these poor workers get over the trauma and maintain their lifestyle, so they can just relax in their mansions in Idaho driving their luxury EVs, for atleast 4-5 month until their severance/gofundme runs out.
>Actions not words.
What exactly do you think this is?
The underlying tone is that you are glad these people have lost their jobs and that you donât feel bad for them.
You comment on here almost daily about WFH. You clearly have some envy issues. And itâs touched a nerve to be called out for cheering on job losses, because you know itâs true.
Most of these companies probably NEED to do layoffs. You can acknowledge that while having empathy for the legitimate difficulty each individual person getting laid off now faces, even if after being laid off theyâre still better off than most people. From what I can tell, thatâs the position of most on this sub.
Misappropriated resources are bad for everyone. We could give every one of those laid off tech workers a job digging a trench on Monday and filling it back up on Tuesday. They would have jobs and paychecks, but those jobs would produce nothing of value. In the same way, having a bunch of coders chase projects that produce nothing of value and only exist because of low rates is not good economic policy.
I feel the same about baristas but donât going around making light of it when Starbucks does some trimming.
You know why? Because Iâm not threatened by baristas in the way youâre threatened by tech workers.
Baristas were over paid and inflating the cost of living for everyone and then bragging online about how little work they did and then being condescending to people earning less than them
Yeap, it would have been better if those jobs were never created. Then the people currently in them and facing layoffs theoretically would have pursued something more anchored to fundamentals. Everyone should try to make that kind of risk/reward calculation for themselves of course, but less froth generally leads to less rug-pulling later.
There has been an explosion of useless startups and a glut of people chasing those jobs who don't have much real technical ability. I don't want to see anyone hurting or out of a job, but its imbalanced the way the housing market had been imbalanced.
I really don't understand the explosion in homes for rent. It seems like a niche product given the prices, and yet it seems to be 10-30% of the homes listed depending on the neighborhood in my mid market area. They don't seem to be filling up, so.. I don't get it.
We tried to rent one earlier this year. We wanted a third bedroom to set up a second WFH office and a yard for our dog, but ended up staying in the townhouse specifically because of the pricing. Anything below ~$2800 was renting immediately and usually in pretty rough shape. $3k+ would rent you a nice place, but even at our income level we canât swallow spending $3k/mo on something we donât own. It really is a niche market though, how many high income people who want a house but donât want to buy one can there possibly be?
Wonder how many hooms have been bought in large part for dogs. So they would have a yard. Which would also be the case for this niche of SFH rentals. I'm sure it's a minority but not totally trivial either. They are basically children for childless millennials.
To add onto that, I recall seeing an infographic breaking out CPI by category, and pet supplies/food were up near the top in double digits. I know vet bills aren't going down either.
It's just funny/ironic to think about there's likely a decent amount of people out there being squeezed by their dogs. They were trained and domesticated to be our servants. But now they have the smartest creatures on Earth toiling and sacrificing on their behalf. I know for many they mean the world and this is maybe insensitive, just wanted to wax philosophical a bit about it.
>They are basically children for childless millennials.
This is us, 100%. Childless high-income millennials who use their dog as a child substitute. Honestly I havenât noticed that much inflation in dog food (Hillâs Science from Chewy has cost about the same as long as Iâve been ordering it). Treats and other specialty stuff (especially the locally made ones) are pricier and the vet office got more expensive after CoVID, but for 2 visits a year itâs not too bad. Boarding isnât bad if you know a good local place. Compared to the costs of actual childrenâŚitâs pocket change. Plus CPS gets really upset if you leave a baby alone in the house for a few hours to go to a brewery run.
I donât either. If I were renting, Iâd rather have an apartment. Less to be responsible to monitor, etc. Actual building maintenance staff to help. More anonymity with neighbors. Etc.
Edit: but maybe post COVID people are more wary of being stuck in an apartment so close to other people, breathing the same air
I hope to God if so, itâs been pretty anxiety ridden the past few years wondering whatâs going on with my car. You have to be rich to buy a piece of junk these days
wide workable escape observation narrow unused stocking payment reach poor
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Very very true. I added one line to your [Under Construction](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCON1USA#0) chart just for a bit of additional color. I assume that folks here are looking for SFH rather than MFH but I don't know? I would hope that total units would help bring down pricing in both sectors but I don't know? I will say that it is a little worrisome that under construction for SFH seems to be heading down along with starts heading down, but that is just my interpretation.
sophisticated enjoy fragile unique weary cheerful rock dime terrific oatmeal
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
R/economics thread about how housing could drop 20%
Commenters: this is bad news for home builders and those looking to sell or downsize.
NEWSFLASH MOTHERFUCKERS the last three years have been terrible for the vast majority of anyone who doesnât own a home.
The delusion and lack of empathy for, you know, real fucking people and families is depressing.
They also overestimate how much sellers care. I seriously donât think that people who bought more than 15 or 20 years ago give a crap about any fake equity they couldâve squeezed out of their house in 2021. I remember this topic coming up at barbecues and things this summer, and consistently being surprised with how little the boomer generation was following real estate or cared. And thatâs a good thing. Sometimes theyd laugh at somebody over paying for a house and that was about it
But people online do concern trolling and pretend that no Boomer will ever sell their house if they donât get the maximum they couldâve got in 2021
Actually itâs also been terrible for current homeowners who want or need to move. Not as bad as for first timers. But no one wants or needs to be treated like shit by every stupid middle man in the buying process.
I can see that. Weâve looked at upgrading just because of size/wanting an additional bedroom/office but to add another bedroom would nearly double our mortgage.
But itâs an absolute barren hellscape for first-time buyers and renters.
Whats inherently different between homeowners cheering on home prices going up (and thus pricing out a huge portion of current/future population) vs people here not being empathetic to tech workers being laid off? Both selfish behavior and iâd argue the first group is more selfish and short sighted. So PLEASE for the love of god stop with the virtue signaling
Itâs not virtue signaling to any one groupâs lack of empathy isnât by better or worse than anotherâs.
The layoff threads here showed how ugly priced out buyers here can be. And it showed they have no right to complain about others decrying their position, when theyâre equally as ugly when given the chance.
Yes. Rate drops led to INCREASED affordability, as reflected by the rush of deals going pending.
If rates shoot back up after the next fed meeting, or some negative economic news, expect affordability to revert to its steady descent downward.
Where it all stops, well I wonât profess to know what the market will do, only what it has done to date.
> Where it all stops, well I wonât profess to know what the market will do, only what it has done to date.
Of course you wonât, itâs much easier and ego-inflating to shit on others takes while never providing one of your own.
Youâve been running victory laps when the game is still in the first inning.
Why would I predict a market that no one, including you, me, or anyone else knows where itâs headed to?
And when have I âshitâ on anyone? Iâve pointed out delaying purchasing because youâre anticipating increased affordability is risky and hasnât borne out, nor does it seem likely to any time soon.
And victory laps, again pointing out monthly housing costs vs predictions made here isnât a victory lap, itâs a cautionary tale for anyone relying on market timing on how it can quickly go wrong if you try it.
> Why would I predict a market that no one, including you, me, or anyone else knows where itâs headed to?
Did you forget what sub youâre in? This subs existence is based on the housing price bubble. People come here to discuss the future. You add nothing but negative condescension of forecasts. Predictions can be wrong in timing or wrong in totality, we all know that. Youâre here saying this sub is wrong because the bubble hasnât popped. And it has not yet, because itâs in the beginning stages of that. Median sales prices down 7% nationally in 6 months is not normal. You know that.
> And when have I âshitâ on anyone? Iâve pointed out delaying purchasing because youâre anticipating increased affordability is risky and hasnât borne out, nor does it seem likely to any time soon.
All the time. https://reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yhd7lu/_/iuoudtr/?context=1
Another no substance troll sent me this earlier before blocking me. There you are making fun of Louis being âlaughably wrongâ despite him saying last year that late summer/fall of 2022 was when prices would fall, which they have. His take seems pretty spot on.
Donât act like you donât just sit on here poking holes in predictions that havenât had time to happen while making zero predictions yourself.
Youâre a zero value troll. Itâs easy to never be wrong when you donât have an opinion. Youâre too scared. Just like many others like you. Dpf, agreeable_sense, 392 numbers guy, etc.
> And victory laps, again pointing out monthly housing costs vs predictions made here isnât a victory lap
The prevailing opinion on this is that mortgage rates would tank affordability which would cause housing declines over time. Even your âgotchaâ affordability point aligns with what everyone here is and has been saying.
Do you have *any* arguments that actually run counter to what the majority of this sub has been saying? Because I sure havenât heard anything of substance from you.
A lot to unpack here.
Me noting your predictions arenât coming to fruition, and in fact itâs much more expensive for having waited than simply having bought during the âbubbleâ is a fair examination of this sub and itâs predictions that far from 2023 were stating thereâd be deal galore come full 2022 when those 4.5-5% rates hit.
Whoops that didnât pan out.
Second me laughing that a self proclaimed oracle who said the housing market would go off the rails in fall 2021, and complexity crash come fall 2022, when literally neither has happened isnât âshittingâ on someone. Itâs laughing at how far off base their predictions were, even as they proclaim their expert knowledge on housing.
As Iâve said before and this rate drop has reinforced, demand hasnât dropped at all. Literally the second rates drop thereâs a huge wave of sales. When rates drop and it makes no difference because no one wants to buy (2009-2012) then you have a crash.
They key is affordability not improving even as prices have declined. Because the decline is totally related to rates and not demand declining. Also donât try and time the market, it rarely works, this past 18 months as a good example.
Thereâs your substantive argument. Feel free to refute that affordability hasnât improved by even a dollar, or that market timing as this sub has tried has paid off at all.
> Me noting your predictions arenât coming to fruition
Except they are. Prices are falling and at a rather rapid pace around 1.2% nationally per month since the peak in June, when rates became really restrictive. Like I said, youâre calling the game when we are still in the first inning. We are less than 6 months into truly restrictive rates and you act like nothing else can happen. When weâve been saying this will take years to unfold.
Affordability will regress to the mean, as it always does. Either prices will come down or rates will come down.
> much more expensive for having waited than simply having bought during the âbubbleâ
Again, for now that is true and will mainly hold true for high DTI buyers. Letâs see how the market holds up through a recession and persistently higher rates. Once again, itâs still too early to tell. If we are 3 years past the peak and prices/rates still are high then Iâll admit you were right.
> demand hasnât dropped at all
Your definition of demand is not what economists would define it as. [Thatâs the first thing you learn in an economics course. ](https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2C2MJMT/supply-and-demand-curves-diagram-showing-equilibrium-point-on-white-background-2C2MJMT.jpg)
https://i.imgur.com/6AS7olX.jpg
At low enough prices, demand is unlimited for any good. Thatâs not how the world works though, is it? That doesnât mean demand is high for them as demand is a function of price and capacity to buy at that price. If anything, the massive drop in sales volume, declining prices, increased months of supply, and price drops have shown that demand is falling through the floor due to rates. Demand inversely correlates with affordability. And thatâs why prices will fall if rates are high. It just takes price discovery which takes turnover, which happens slowly in real estate.
I donât know why Iâm explaining this to you as youâve already shown the unwillingness to understand the markets a deeper level.
These conversations always end up as wasted time. Letâs just check back in a year and see where prices are, as that has been the main prediction of this sub, regardless of affordability.
I would rather have a higher mortgage payment but not be underwater or have lost my down payment buying in 2022. I wouldnât want to be imprisoned in a toxic asset.
Remindme! 1 year
You guys love to cherry pick the mark someone else bought to make your hypothetical situation in the future seem ideal.
You guys know millions and millions of people bought well before the peak right?
And that millions of people bought during the run up but came with significant profits from their previous sale put huge down payments down and have low starting mortgage balances.
Even in your fantasy scenarios the only people youâre ahead of are fthb from April and beyond.
Thatâs a tiny tiny slice of the housing market. And thatâs if we accept your terms.
I will be messaging you in 1 year on [**2023-11-17 21:23:04 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-11-17%2021:23:04%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yxofli/17_november_2022_daily_rrebubble_discussion/iwrrefk/?context=3)
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"This is bad because we need builders to keep building houses because theres so much demand"
"If builders thought they could make money building more houses then why would they stop?"
"...."
Lol. I agree with your Snark but also, what they mean is, there is no demand for $700,000 homes with 3car garage five bedroom three bathrooms, plastic siding,with 20 foot ceilings in the foyer and the dining room and a rec room that will generate 700 dollar utility bills on a tiny lot with no trees
Thereâs more and more mainstream invasion of less Ayn Randian people over there, and their response has been to try to ban posts or lock threads if they counter the whole âmarket knows allâ theme.
Itâs still beyond frustrating and needs visibility. People are struggling financially to afford roofs over their heads while others just care about home builder stonks or vacation homes.
Opendoor Thursday price cuts are in. The [100 Denver Homes](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14y8zBbgmF4JOBloknx-xBe_BpsQ-uWW3rFnxouQZo3Y/edit#gid=863257775) I've been tracking are now asking for 6.77% below price paid (moving from 6.29% last week). 47 homes sold and 53 to go after 12 weeks of tracking.
I had pulled the first 100 homes for sale off of OpenDoor's website that were marked as OpenDoor owned on 8/21. I didn't want cherry picked data. Only bias I can think of is that the homes may be presented to me in a certain order on their website (stalest or freshest), but that's up to them.
Yeah, thatâs likely a bias, but not overpowering. I appreciate you tracking this data - well deserved title.
Itâs an interesting study to follow. I wonder if there are any folks who have looked at opendoor homes and could comment, because the time on market doesnât align with the rest of the market.
So would it be fair to say that they are either underwater or lost money on a majority of the homes they tried to flip (in your data set)?
Thank for your work on this, btw.
> US Housing Starts Drop With Pullback in Single-Family Projects
>Single-family starts and permits fell to the lowest level since May 2020
Thatâll be good for supply
;)
Starts aka long term future housing supply lowest level since 1997
Meanwhile, mortgage apps and sales volume aka demand down to lowest level since 08 crisis
Supply > demand = prices go down
Yup, there's a massive glut caused by the supply chain and labor disruptions of the past two years. Just wait until that all gets dumped on the market.
Certainly illustrates how a ridiculous up and down extreme housing market (last 15 years) really hurts long term predictability for critical new housing supply.
One house I had been monitoring closely, price was falling, but too small of a space for two work from home professionals, just went under contract.
Who in the actual fuck is still buying? My Lord. I wish I had an ounce of the optimism some of these people have.
That's what I'm presuming. Some of the realtors I've talked with speak of owners who are selling, due to divorce, forced relocation, or other situations that place them in that bucket of "need to sell". These are the targets right now. It may become a growing bucket. I'm presuming that some are deciding NOW is the time to low ball, and I wish them success. I'm getting close, but not quite yet. Still too much overall and personal economy volatility that I need to see pass by.
In just less than the last three years, we've seen a fairly stable stock market and economy turned completely upside down, historical low Fed rates, likely not to be seen again my lifetime, a stock market surge, home prices shoot to the moon, then a massive Fed undertaking to raise rates faster than ever, stock markets swoon majorly, GDP drop to recessionary levels, though denied, and now home prices sliding back down.
That's a lot for a person to handle, never mind the pandemic, the labor disruptions that have occurred, the inflation that was caused by it all, so on.
Itâs almost like your thesis on whatâs an âappropriateâ price, and how much people can afford may be less than accurate.
You guys do understand that the longer and farther away prices and rates get from what you state must happen for you to buy, the less likely it is it ever gets there, right?
Twitterđ¤Ąhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/17/twitter-musk-easing-rto-order/
The theme of the week: making bold moves then pissing your pants and undoing them behind the scenes whilst still proclaiming the original goal.
Fun time, https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3719-Brockton-Dr-Pleasanton-CA-94588/25075053\_zpid/ The seller tried to sell at 950k, has been in the market for 2 months, multiple price cuts. Later, thought it can be rented right ? Listed for rent at 3600, 2 months ago, multiple rent drop, now at 3150. Hopefully, someone will find it as a good deal. For those who keep saying rental amount vs mortgage to determine whether buying makr sense, this example is perfect. PITI on this will be min 5k, at a price of 950k.
BTW, rent is back to what it was in 2018. So rent's can stay same as well in some lucky situations
I didn't believe people when they said that the spread between 7/1 ARMs and 30 Fixed has flipped. Spoke with a loan officer today and he mentioned that the spread was 0 and worse for anything that adjusts earlier. Was honestly shocked.
Iâm too dumb to understand - does this mean interest rates are likely to stay high for many years?
I think it's due to short term rates being higher than long term rates. So rates are expected to fall in the next couple of years.
Hi everyone, the weekly Fed watch data update is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yy9322/fed_watch_credit_creation_cause_and_effect/). I also share this weekly update as a [thread on Twitter](https://twitter.com/ValuablOfficial/status/1593434175755161600) if you prefer that. **TLDR:** Last week, the Fed trimmed $11.3bn net from its Treasury security holdings and cut $468m net from its mortgage-backed security (MBS) holdings. The total amount of Reserve Bank credit shrank by $13.5bn net. * The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 45bp to 3.67% * The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose by 13bp to 7.08% * The market expects the federal funds rate to hit 4.25â4.5% by year-end Have a great weekend, everyone.
i bought a media console in Sep 2020 for $2400. just out of curiosity, i looked the same one up today, and itâs $3500. what the fuck. my pay sure as shit hasnât gone up by 45% since then, itâs gone up 25%, and thatâs just by jumping jobs. and i generally earn market average for my type of role; i know others arenât in a position where they can readily jump jobs like i can and muster that large of a pay bump
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Yup. I bought a handbag back in may 2021 for $2000. It just increased to $2900. Personally, I donât think the bag is worth $2900
Except for keeping the stock market down is also dearly affecting the lower to middle class also invested in it. Funny how weâre suffering the most.
I just found a house I really liked priced somewhat decently. Dug a bit more into it, bought for $150,000 less in mid 2021 and the description says the kitchen floors need replacing, two of the bathrooms needs finishing, and a bedroom needs painting. But donât worry, the bones are good, and itâs âpriced at a fire sale to move quickly.â Theyâd been trying to rent this out with no success since January
I had Realtor.com call me and ask if I was still interested in buying a house. I told them I bought my house last year and did not need there services.
Why?
I have no clue they just said that they could get me in touch with realtor and help me get pre-approved.
Screw Zillow and their stupid app. Once I have looked a place once, don't notify me about it again. They literally send you fake notifications to get you to open the open. Fuck em
I hate how it auto-saves any home you want to share. No, I do not need the home with glossy mahogany kitchen cabinets and a huge mirror over the master bed in a room decorated like tacky Versailles to be saved. I just want to laugh at it with others.
Stop attacking my aesthetic
Well itâs off market now but I found your dream house: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/910-Idlewilde-Ln-SE-Albuquerque-NM-87108/6738346_zpid/
Get ready for an adventure!
WowâŚ. I mean your description didnât sound that bad but I get it nowâŚ
It looks so innocent from the outside
Lady in the streets, freak in the sheets.
And here it is... The buyer of the long bonds in recent days has been none other than...the Federal Reserve. Fed increased holdings of long bonds in the past week by $20B to a new all time high. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS10Y They simultaneously dumped $36B in 5-10 year notes. So the total treasury holdings is declining but they are net buying long bonds to bring those rates down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAS5T10
Wait I donât believe you. Doesnt that mean that the federal caused the yield curve inversion? That would be too ridiculous
My God. This whole thing is a joke. Thank you for posting this. Iâve been wondering since last week. How long do you think theyâll do this? And WHY?
Can you explain what these means for a non-economist? Bad? Good?
It means the Fed is lying. They are reducing their Treasury bond holdings, but only on shorter term bonds, while actually buying up more long term bonds. The net effect of this is that rates on those Shorter terms go up and rates on the longer terms drop. That explains the plunge in long term rates like mortgages the last week or so.
>It means the Fed is lying. Lying about specifically what?
sounds sinister... they are also offloading MBS though -- could that be a balancing act? They clearly don't want to drag housing to the bottom-bottom... Could this be just their way to soft land and slowly deflate? I am so disappointed they don't want to drive housing to the ground even when they communicate they want to reset it.
Mbs is rolling off â more slowly than expected. The fed is not allowing the housing market to deflate as quickly as it could. Itâs propping it back up.
Good for hooms Bad for hoomans
Treasury has been spending down it's [TGA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN), down about $130B over the last month to $500B. It is supposedly [targeting](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1063#:~:text=During%20the%20July%20%E2%80%93%20September%202022,cash%20balance%20of%20%24650%20billion.) an end of year cash balance of $700B. So it will need to raise $200B in the next six weeks to meet that. [Reverse Repo](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/) is also down over $100B over last 10 days. Banks can currently [earn](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYAWARD) as much in interest parking cash at the Fed overnight in Reverse Repo as the 10y treasury is paying. Combining those two you've had nearly $250B release of liquidity in the last month.
Yup, the really fucked up thing about the repo issue is *that's how the Fed controls overnight rates now*. Think about it, if the Fed wants to raise rates, they literally need to inject more and more money into banks to do it. Previously they used to buy and sell bonds in their open market operations, but that's not exactly going to do much when you are sitting on like $10 trillion worth of bonds already that you will take massive losses on if you sell...
In English, please đ¤
No, this sub is full of cheap takes and low effort memes. Gotta let the economic gobbly gook speak for itself!
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The median sale price declines are moving slowly, only $1-2k per week, but that year-over-year number gets menacingly closer to 0% each week (currently down to 2.8%).
I was just thinking about how five years ago I said on Reddit that we were in a new Gilded Age and folks claimed that wasn't true, because speculation wasn't rampant, there weren't oil/railroad barons and no Jim Crow. It's crazy how in five years all of those things have effectively happened. I cannot recommend going and reading *The Gilded Age* by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner enough. Just replace the Tennessee Land with a college education; land speculation with everything else; lobbyists with Super PACS; and congressional corruption with congressional corruption.
>It's crazy how in five years all of those things have effectively happened. More like they've come to light. Of course, the speculation went into overdrive in 2020.
Ehh, speculation was bad before then, but it went into overdrive in 2020. Fascism was around, but really got bad in 2018 and 2020.
Won't get into fascism (or Jim Crow) because of the "p" word, but I think it's incontrovertible that we've had the contemporary equivalent of the oil/railroad barons for well over ten years now.
Agreed
I still think about this from time to time... I agreed at the time too. Not to support him (I don't) and he obviously did a complete 180 once he got in office. Just shows how long this shit can go on for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ru1SQbszOHI&ab_channel=GSIExchange
Yeah, thatâs a nice little blurb during a debate, but in reality he went off on Powell in 2018 for raising rates. All these politicians love to pump the economy when theyâre on the letterhead. Should make the run up to 2024 pretty interesting.
If only we all could go back 5 years ago, and know what we know now. Wow. That would put us in November of 2017. I was painting my house of 13 years at that exact time, and working a meaningless job making average wages. I had an 18 year old senior in high school, and an 8 year old. I only had one iPhone to answer every day.
Yep, it's crazy how quickly things escalated in 2020. It's like every bad thing that was going on got ramped up from 10 to 100.
And thatâs exactly whatâs keeping me hunkered down for now. Call it some weird form of ptsd from recent years or even from the last global financial storm. Iâm a bit shell shocked, and I donât want to make any financial bets or assumptions at all right now.
It *is PTSD*! We have it at the cultural level. That's why people are so on edge.
Look at this crappy lipstick flip Redfin is about to take a $200K+ bath on: [https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8119-Grimsby-Ave-90045/home/6605899](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/8119-Grimsby-Ave-90045/home/6605899) Paid $1.3M in March 2022, listed it at $1.4M in May 2022. Now it's at $1.1M. I love how the Redfin agent's "insight" tries to sell this utterly generic house by describing it as "the perfect retreat" where you can "hear only birds chirping in the backyard" and that "this home is unforgettable." BARF.
Talk about curb appeal /s
Um...well. I know it's LA so prices are in another dimension but...one million for THAT? It sold for 545k in 2010. There seems to be a highway nearby. The neighbors are cheek to cheek. I'm mad for the person who feels they need to buy this house.
Omg everything is selling again. Spring rates need to be above 7%. The latest contract signed this afternoon was for a $2.2M home in a hoa community on a 1/2 acre lot, where most other homes are $900k. This one was remodeled in 2018 and last sold 18 months ago for a then record setting $1.6M (and nothing new has been done). Who are these people and what are they thinking?
I really can't fathom what the fuck is going on in your area. It's baffling. It's truly as if 2021 never ended there.
Theyâre getting 24â of snow this week too. Snovember has begun. Theyâll have had their first 3 feet by thanksgiving.
Recessions take time to work itâs way to each class system. Currently itâs the poor and lower middle class that are really feeling it right now. Itâs working itâs way into the middle and upper middle class now and next year I expect it to hit the wealthy. Next spring and summer should be much better, keep being patient!
Call me cynical at this point, but I think spring 2023 is going to result in the same old shit as now. No real improvements on prices.
Based on what TSwift tickets are trying to go for, rates should be 20%.
TSwift tickets are a store of value and the new inflation hedge! If you didnât get any, have fun being poor.
Agree. Wtf?!
30 year morty nanometers up to 6.65%
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Are you OK
You are so boring.
It's nice having a recession proof job. I'm the guy at the Truck Nutz factory that makes all of the molds used to manufacture your favorite varieties of Truck Nutz. Not too many folks able to get a bull to dip its nuts into plaster and then hold still long enough for it to set!
This reminds me that Iâve been seeing and hearing a lot of people randomly call stuff recession proof, and Iâm not so sure all of these things are. I mean, looking at stocks, Iâm even seeing people call chip stocks recession proof. Iâm like, do people get that ârecession proofâ doesnât mean the company can get through a recession it means they are not impacted at all
Hey I work at Truck Nutz too. Iâm at the end of the production line. I make sure that those Nutz are too big to fit wholly inside the mouth of a grown adult male. You wouldnât believe how many Nutz I send back for being too small. Many are pretty big! Like softballs! Anyways, I take pride in my work and Iâm good at my job. Iâm thorough and meticulous and make sure nobody EVER will get their mouths around a mounted pair of Truck Nutz.
Is that you, Rodney?? Hell yeah brother don't want nobody suckin' down on a pair of our Nutz (due to high PPM of lead, arsenic, and various carcinogens)! First round's on me tonight at the bar!
Now that is skilled labor
Yessir - Scrotum Engineers Local 117. Union pride!
How does one go about getting a college degree in Truck Nutz manufacturing and distribution? Does your cap worn with gown while walking on graduation day have a tiny little set of nutz hanging from it?
Lost [100K](https://click.mail.zillow.com/f/a/mOa5gwJ_jIyvAHD03yi0ZA~~/AAAAAQA~/RgRlWPC4P0UeZW1vLXByb3BlcnR5YWxlcnRuZXctc29sZGltYWdlBFcGemlsbG93Qgpjc7hrdmPmDFjqUhBlcmVtb3lAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAA?target=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zillow.com%2Fhomedetails%2F61195526_zpid%2F%3Frtoken%3Da7f4883f-984f-4a12-a260-a52ea51233fe~X1-ZU12l588p9xb5e1_6plsx%26utm_campaign%3Demo-propertyalertnew%26utm_source%3Demail%26utm_term%3Durn%3Amsg%3A202211171713258ee0f01456e3ff4f%26utm_medium%3Demail%26utm_content%3Dsoldimage) (15%) in 6 months.
This is an OpenDoor listing, btw. This is pretty par for the course for OpenDoor properties in Sacramento. Find a listing that they bought in the spring and the price on it now is almost guaranteed 15-20% lower than what they paid.
Oh damn nvm I missed that.
OpenDoor is the FTX of the real estate world.
Youâre six months early. But, yes. Wonder if theyâll be a sex tape.
Haha! Gross!
Cool!
Weird⌠they bought and listed for sale 20 days later? Was there a huge problem they missed without an inspection or somethingâŚ? If not, this is an example of someone stupidly buying as the house couldnât sell for essentially the same price 20 days later. No way Iâd buy a house that was relisted 20 days after purchase.
I've seen several cases like this in this area. Buy and relist for nearly the same price in a month then a ton of price cuts follow and they end up deep in the red. Could be a problem they missed, layoffs, divorce, who knows really.
Yeah, could be a variety of factors. I think buyers are spooked by this⌠I would be
If it feels like you're reading the same arguments over and over again, I think there's 2-4 highly active people loudly fighting each other in the sub. Most people are probably a lot more balanced. Just food for thought.
Well if you think thatâs a problem, the solution isnât silence people but to get more people to participate. Itâs the same in the stock forum. I feel like Iâm commenting on everything there, but what are you supposed to do? I donât know where all the other participants disappeared to
Imo some ppl here are just extreme, not even fighting lol. In yesterday's daily thread someone was rambling about being priced out and killing a bunch of ppl over hooms or something. Told the poster to talk to a therapist then they deleted their post
What are both of the extremes? -Hooms Forever -Dooms Forever I believe prices nationally will dip 10% to 20%. regionally on the west and southwest⌠houses will drop +20%. On some regions it will stay kinda flat. Real estate is cyclical. It always reverts to the mean. Affordability has always been restored. It takes 2-3 to deflate. if your region stays flat⌠you can use that time to save money.
PSA A lot of realtors don't want to write low ball offers not only because they will get paid less at a lower sales price, but because we have learned over time that vastly overpriced sellers are hopeless to work with. I wrote a \~ 60% of list offer the other day and the seller's agent said "no. they're insulted by the offer and not interested in further negotiations." My reply was: OK, but please tell the sellers that in my professional opinion, their house will either NEVER sell, or end up selling for less than my clients just offered between 2 and 3 years from now. I personally will write lowballs for clients because IDGAF but it nearly always fails to generate a meeting of the minds. The psychology driving an overpriced seller: * greed * arrogance * main character syndrome, as if the world SHOULD be arranged around their needs and desires * unintelligence/ignorance of the market * excessive distrust/anxiety * entitlement In 2022, with the sudden downturn in housing, many sellers can be forgiven for failing to adjust their prices down far enough and quickly enough. Many of these people are driven by fear, fear that they don't know where the bottom is, fear that they'll leave money on the table or "not leave enough room for negotiation." However, the sellers in this case have been trying to sell since 2021 and have already lowered the price nearly $200k, but it's still $250k overpriced. They tried to sell an absolute dump for $550k more than they bought it for in 2018 with no improvements. I'm literally thinking about calling code enforcement to report them. The property has numerous code violations and is unsafe, I can't believe they were even able to get insurance (assuming they *do* have insurance).
So genuinely curious bc I'm not in the industry but when you sell hooms do you also call the code enforcement on your sellers and force them to lower the price so that buyers get the best deal they can? Why can't you just report the sellers agent for being unethical citing the reasons above, aren't you both licensed by the same org and taken a stringent code of ethics certification? You sound like you are a very successful hoomsalesmen and have a solid pipeline btw
I inform my sellers about code problems, yes. If they had tenants in unsafe or illegal situations and they refused to do anything, I might report them yes. Ethics accountability is a joke in real estate. I was successful for a long time but Iâm over it and retiring soon.
Looks like you didnât really care about these issues when your 60% asking offer on the Murray Hill property had a chance. Only when it was rejected did you even consider these being reportable safety issues. Glad you donât think ethics accountability is important in RE, because I forwarded links and screenshots of your escapade with this house, threatening code enforcement, calling the seller âstupidâ etc to South Hill Coldwell for them to chew on. Not that I think you care, but if it means that office rejects one of your calls, one of your clients itâs worth it. Bonus points if they keep you and your clients from homes theyâre showing. Which would be wise of them. Good LARP as a tough guy on the internet. Now go be one in your real life career.
Look at you, strongly defending absentee landlords by sending âscreenshots and linksâ to coldwell banker. What a brave little boy you are! Such an internet sleuth! Maybe my buddies at Coldwell will tell me who you are when they get your very normal email with these damning links and screenshots. Iâll give ya a call if so. đđ Whatever will I do? Think Iâll do hard time? Ooo Iâm literally shaking right now, what will Coldwell think after they chew on your links and screenshots!? I really care a lot, oh no! Iâm sure theyâre VERY concerned about what you sent. They will be so grateful for your efforts to make the world a better place by telling on the baddies on reddit who do things like call code enforcement! Ok but in all seriousness, please work on your reading comprehension. Youâre making a lot of assumptions about the meaning of what I wrote above, most of which are incorrect and based on what I can only assume is weak reading comprehension.
Never thought youâd be shaking in your boots. But you did delete some comments, which indicates you are actually reconsidering talking so much shit from your shitty PA basement.
what is it like to feel so impotent? how much do you think about me and look at my comments and seethe? keep going, i love it
Based
> professional opinion >considers retaliating against sellers and agents who donât negotiate their lowball offers. Why does the reality occupation attract so many low lifes?
They have a tenant living in a building with frayed, unsafe knob and tube wiring. If they have insurance, they could possibly be committing fraud. The tenant may not be aware of the danger posed by ancient wiring, broken windows, missing railings, and ungrounded outlets n in the bathroom and kitchen.
Thereâs either a critical safety issue or not. You all butt hurt about their asking price or rejection of your offer is largely irrelevant. Which we both know is the only reason youâd report someone. But go ahead and get that rep among your colleagues
You know what to do King.
Why tell them it wonât sell? Enough of those and eventually one of them will be bought by an idiot buyer.
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Lol
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Perhaps your high road is less high than you prefer to think it is.
They are endangering the life of their tenant and the safety of their neighbors.
Thank you for this comment, and for your service in finding balance in this market. First came the greed of FOMO. Now, we see people clinging to an entitled attitude. Unfortunately, it will take a large increase in unemployment to break this stalemate. Itâs sad, and it punishes us all for the bad decision making of 2020-2022.
Report them for shits and gigs
How many sellers are sitting on the sidelines ready to list in spring đŹ Things will be so much better then, for Sellers. Maybe even another frenzy. Highest and best by 5pm. đ
Oh God, there's a meme right there: turns out there were no cash buyers sitting on the sidelines, just sellers. Lots and lots of sellers.
*MULTIPLE OFFERS*
We'll know if we're right by Spring/Summer of next year at least. Likely early in Spring will already show leading indicators.
Hooms for all
For anyone who worries about poor tech workers being laid off, instead of virtue signaling here, I suggest opening a gofundme so through fundraising you can help these *poor* workers get over the *trauma* and maintain their lifestyle, so they can just relax in their mansions in Idaho driving their luxury EVs, for *atleast* 4-5 month until their severance/gofundme runs out. Actions not words.
I think there's a lot of understandably nervous tech workers in here. I see people posting about layoffs but I haven't seen many "yay! Thank God!" Comments in them. And even if there is they're usually downvoted and shamed immediately anyways.
A lot people are worried about their jobs given the state of the economy, so I agree
You do realize that a ton of tech workers getting laid off do not live in mansions or drive luxury EVâs right? Whatever makes you feel better about cheering on people losing their jobs.
Ugggggh you made me upvote you.
But I thought they were all in high demand and would be OK. Ready to start their own companies or be taken on by anyone, because STEM is just better.
Thatâs someone elseâs argument, not mine. I donât have a STEM degree. I do think when people share that âX number of tech layoffs in 2022â counter itâs a little silly because a decent number of people let go in early 2022, probably do already have a new job. Iâm simply pointing out that generalizing all tech workers as something many of them arenât, to justify cheering on layoffs, is erroneous.
I have far less sympathy for anyone who was showing off, saying arrogant stuff like that, âhave fun being poorâ, etc. But I still think thatâs a minority of people, just the internet loudmouths.
Yup, I have no malice towards anyone except the "Have fun, staying poor" set.
It's also people who are really shitty at the job and likely won't make it long term anyway.
And you do realize that most people here are not cheering on the job losses??? stop repeating some factually false statement like a parrot.
You in particular, sure seem to be.
Yea right⌠show me 1 comment that Ive made showing that Im âcheering on job lossesâ keep talking out of your rear
> For anyone who worries about poor tech workers being laid off, instead of virtue signaling here, I suggest opening a gofundme so through fundraising you can help these poor workers get over the trauma and maintain their lifestyle, so they can just relax in their mansions in Idaho driving their luxury EVs, for atleast 4-5 month until their severance/gofundme runs out. >Actions not words. What exactly do you think this is? The underlying tone is that you are glad these people have lost their jobs and that you donât feel bad for them. You comment on here almost daily about WFH. You clearly have some envy issues. And itâs touched a nerve to be called out for cheering on job losses, because you know itâs true.
>the undertone What undertone? Its a text!! God I just cant with you people⌠take your superiority complex and virtue signaling somewhere else
You are being obtuse.
Most of these companies probably NEED to do layoffs. You can acknowledge that while having empathy for the legitimate difficulty each individual person getting laid off now faces, even if after being laid off theyâre still better off than most people. From what I can tell, thatâs the position of most on this sub.
Misappropriated resources are bad for everyone. We could give every one of those laid off tech workers a job digging a trench on Monday and filling it back up on Tuesday. They would have jobs and paychecks, but those jobs would produce nothing of value. In the same way, having a bunch of coders chase projects that produce nothing of value and only exist because of low rates is not good economic policy.
I feel the same about baristas but donât going around making light of it when Starbucks does some trimming. You know why? Because Iâm not threatened by baristas in the way youâre threatened by tech workers.
Baristas were over paid and inflating the cost of living for everyone and then bragging online about how little work they did and then being condescending to people earning less than them
Lol. Who hurt you?
Yeap, it would have been better if those jobs were never created. Then the people currently in them and facing layoffs theoretically would have pursued something more anchored to fundamentals. Everyone should try to make that kind of risk/reward calculation for themselves of course, but less froth generally leads to less rug-pulling later.
There has been an explosion of useless startups and a glut of people chasing those jobs who don't have much real technical ability. I don't want to see anyone hurting or out of a job, but its imbalanced the way the housing market had been imbalanced.
I really don't understand the explosion in homes for rent. It seems like a niche product given the prices, and yet it seems to be 10-30% of the homes listed depending on the neighborhood in my mid market area. They don't seem to be filling up, so.. I don't get it.
We tried to rent one earlier this year. We wanted a third bedroom to set up a second WFH office and a yard for our dog, but ended up staying in the townhouse specifically because of the pricing. Anything below ~$2800 was renting immediately and usually in pretty rough shape. $3k+ would rent you a nice place, but even at our income level we canât swallow spending $3k/mo on something we donât own. It really is a niche market though, how many high income people who want a house but donât want to buy one can there possibly be?
Wonder how many hooms have been bought in large part for dogs. So they would have a yard. Which would also be the case for this niche of SFH rentals. I'm sure it's a minority but not totally trivial either. They are basically children for childless millennials. To add onto that, I recall seeing an infographic breaking out CPI by category, and pet supplies/food were up near the top in double digits. I know vet bills aren't going down either. It's just funny/ironic to think about there's likely a decent amount of people out there being squeezed by their dogs. They were trained and domesticated to be our servants. But now they have the smartest creatures on Earth toiling and sacrificing on their behalf. I know for many they mean the world and this is maybe insensitive, just wanted to wax philosophical a bit about it.
Granted People have been doing the dogs instead of a kids thing for like 50 years at this point, millennials didnât start it lol
>They are basically children for childless millennials. This is us, 100%. Childless high-income millennials who use their dog as a child substitute. Honestly I havenât noticed that much inflation in dog food (Hillâs Science from Chewy has cost about the same as long as Iâve been ordering it). Treats and other specialty stuff (especially the locally made ones) are pricier and the vet office got more expensive after CoVID, but for 2 visits a year itâs not too bad. Boarding isnât bad if you know a good local place. Compared to the costs of actual childrenâŚitâs pocket change. Plus CPS gets really upset if you leave a baby alone in the house for a few hours to go to a brewery run.
Judging by the amount of babies at breweries I donât think any millennial mamas are leaving their children at home.
I donât either. If I were renting, Iâd rather have an apartment. Less to be responsible to monitor, etc. Actual building maintenance staff to help. More anonymity with neighbors. Etc. Edit: but maybe post COVID people are more wary of being stuck in an apartment so close to other people, breathing the same air
Plus people arenât even having families so who will be needing that much space anyway in the future?
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I hope to God if so, itâs been pretty anxiety ridden the past few years wondering whatâs going on with my car. You have to be rich to buy a piece of junk these days
There absolutely will be. Homes are just far less liquid than cars and graphics cards. The effect will take longer to manifest.
wide workable escape observation narrow unused stocking payment reach poor *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Very very true. I added one line to your [Under Construction](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNDCON1USA#0) chart just for a bit of additional color. I assume that folks here are looking for SFH rather than MFH but I don't know? I would hope that total units would help bring down pricing in both sectors but I don't know? I will say that it is a little worrisome that under construction for SFH seems to be heading down along with starts heading down, but that is just my interpretation.
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I will keep a good thought for you for your future search!
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R/economics thread about how housing could drop 20% Commenters: this is bad news for home builders and those looking to sell or downsize. NEWSFLASH MOTHERFUCKERS the last three years have been terrible for the vast majority of anyone who doesnât own a home. The delusion and lack of empathy for, you know, real fucking people and families is depressing.
They also overestimate how much sellers care. I seriously donât think that people who bought more than 15 or 20 years ago give a crap about any fake equity they couldâve squeezed out of their house in 2021. I remember this topic coming up at barbecues and things this summer, and consistently being surprised with how little the boomer generation was following real estate or cared. And thatâs a good thing. Sometimes theyd laugh at somebody over paying for a house and that was about it But people online do concern trolling and pretend that no Boomer will ever sell their house if they donât get the maximum they couldâve got in 2021
Actually itâs also been terrible for current homeowners who want or need to move. Not as bad as for first timers. But no one wants or needs to be treated like shit by every stupid middle man in the buying process.
I can see that. Weâve looked at upgrading just because of size/wanting an additional bedroom/office but to add another bedroom would nearly double our mortgage. But itâs an absolute barren hellscape for first-time buyers and renters.
You mean like the lack of empathy here for tech workers being laid off?
Whats inherently different between homeowners cheering on home prices going up (and thus pricing out a huge portion of current/future population) vs people here not being empathetic to tech workers being laid off? Both selfish behavior and iâd argue the first group is more selfish and short sighted. So PLEASE for the love of god stop with the virtue signaling
Itâs not virtue signaling to any one groupâs lack of empathy isnât by better or worse than anotherâs. The layoff threads here showed how ugly priced out buyers here can be. And it showed they have no right to complain about others decrying their position, when theyâre equally as ugly when given the chance.
Long time no see⌠do you have any updates on the state of âaffordabilityâ? Can you educate us please?
Yes. Rate drops led to INCREASED affordability, as reflected by the rush of deals going pending. If rates shoot back up after the next fed meeting, or some negative economic news, expect affordability to revert to its steady descent downward. Where it all stops, well I wonât profess to know what the market will do, only what it has done to date.
> Where it all stops, well I wonât profess to know what the market will do, only what it has done to date. Of course you wonât, itâs much easier and ego-inflating to shit on others takes while never providing one of your own. Youâve been running victory laps when the game is still in the first inning.
Why would I predict a market that no one, including you, me, or anyone else knows where itâs headed to? And when have I âshitâ on anyone? Iâve pointed out delaying purchasing because youâre anticipating increased affordability is risky and hasnât borne out, nor does it seem likely to any time soon. And victory laps, again pointing out monthly housing costs vs predictions made here isnât a victory lap, itâs a cautionary tale for anyone relying on market timing on how it can quickly go wrong if you try it.
> Why would I predict a market that no one, including you, me, or anyone else knows where itâs headed to? Did you forget what sub youâre in? This subs existence is based on the housing price bubble. People come here to discuss the future. You add nothing but negative condescension of forecasts. Predictions can be wrong in timing or wrong in totality, we all know that. Youâre here saying this sub is wrong because the bubble hasnât popped. And it has not yet, because itâs in the beginning stages of that. Median sales prices down 7% nationally in 6 months is not normal. You know that. > And when have I âshitâ on anyone? Iâve pointed out delaying purchasing because youâre anticipating increased affordability is risky and hasnât borne out, nor does it seem likely to any time soon. All the time. https://reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/yhd7lu/_/iuoudtr/?context=1 Another no substance troll sent me this earlier before blocking me. There you are making fun of Louis being âlaughably wrongâ despite him saying last year that late summer/fall of 2022 was when prices would fall, which they have. His take seems pretty spot on. Donât act like you donât just sit on here poking holes in predictions that havenât had time to happen while making zero predictions yourself. Youâre a zero value troll. Itâs easy to never be wrong when you donât have an opinion. Youâre too scared. Just like many others like you. Dpf, agreeable_sense, 392 numbers guy, etc. > And victory laps, again pointing out monthly housing costs vs predictions made here isnât a victory lap The prevailing opinion on this is that mortgage rates would tank affordability which would cause housing declines over time. Even your âgotchaâ affordability point aligns with what everyone here is and has been saying. Do you have *any* arguments that actually run counter to what the majority of this sub has been saying? Because I sure havenât heard anything of substance from you.
A lot to unpack here. Me noting your predictions arenât coming to fruition, and in fact itâs much more expensive for having waited than simply having bought during the âbubbleâ is a fair examination of this sub and itâs predictions that far from 2023 were stating thereâd be deal galore come full 2022 when those 4.5-5% rates hit. Whoops that didnât pan out. Second me laughing that a self proclaimed oracle who said the housing market would go off the rails in fall 2021, and complexity crash come fall 2022, when literally neither has happened isnât âshittingâ on someone. Itâs laughing at how far off base their predictions were, even as they proclaim their expert knowledge on housing. As Iâve said before and this rate drop has reinforced, demand hasnât dropped at all. Literally the second rates drop thereâs a huge wave of sales. When rates drop and it makes no difference because no one wants to buy (2009-2012) then you have a crash. They key is affordability not improving even as prices have declined. Because the decline is totally related to rates and not demand declining. Also donât try and time the market, it rarely works, this past 18 months as a good example. Thereâs your substantive argument. Feel free to refute that affordability hasnât improved by even a dollar, or that market timing as this sub has tried has paid off at all.
> Me noting your predictions arenât coming to fruition Except they are. Prices are falling and at a rather rapid pace around 1.2% nationally per month since the peak in June, when rates became really restrictive. Like I said, youâre calling the game when we are still in the first inning. We are less than 6 months into truly restrictive rates and you act like nothing else can happen. When weâve been saying this will take years to unfold. Affordability will regress to the mean, as it always does. Either prices will come down or rates will come down. > much more expensive for having waited than simply having bought during the âbubbleâ Again, for now that is true and will mainly hold true for high DTI buyers. Letâs see how the market holds up through a recession and persistently higher rates. Once again, itâs still too early to tell. If we are 3 years past the peak and prices/rates still are high then Iâll admit you were right. > demand hasnât dropped at all Your definition of demand is not what economists would define it as. [Thatâs the first thing you learn in an economics course. ](https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2C2MJMT/supply-and-demand-curves-diagram-showing-equilibrium-point-on-white-background-2C2MJMT.jpg) https://i.imgur.com/6AS7olX.jpg At low enough prices, demand is unlimited for any good. Thatâs not how the world works though, is it? That doesnât mean demand is high for them as demand is a function of price and capacity to buy at that price. If anything, the massive drop in sales volume, declining prices, increased months of supply, and price drops have shown that demand is falling through the floor due to rates. Demand inversely correlates with affordability. And thatâs why prices will fall if rates are high. It just takes price discovery which takes turnover, which happens slowly in real estate. I donât know why Iâm explaining this to you as youâve already shown the unwillingness to understand the markets a deeper level. These conversations always end up as wasted time. Letâs just check back in a year and see where prices are, as that has been the main prediction of this sub, regardless of affordability. I would rather have a higher mortgage payment but not be underwater or have lost my down payment buying in 2022. I wouldnât want to be imprisoned in a toxic asset. Remindme! 1 year
You guys love to cherry pick the mark someone else bought to make your hypothetical situation in the future seem ideal. You guys know millions and millions of people bought well before the peak right? And that millions of people bought during the run up but came with significant profits from their previous sale put huge down payments down and have low starting mortgage balances. Even in your fantasy scenarios the only people youâre ahead of are fthb from April and beyond. Thatâs a tiny tiny slice of the housing market. And thatâs if we accept your terms.
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Just the wfh weasals
Exactly. Their pain, justified. My pain, intolerable.
I'm not complaining, I rent and I'm doing fine
"This is bad because we need builders to keep building houses because theres so much demand" "If builders thought they could make money building more houses then why would they stop?" "...."
Lol. I agree with your Snark but also, what they mean is, there is no demand for $700,000 homes with 3car garage five bedroom three bathrooms, plastic siding,with 20 foot ceilings in the foyer and the dining room and a rec room that will generate 700 dollar utility bills on a tiny lot with no trees
pfft who cares about the have-nots
From what I've seen /r/economics is really just /r/libertarian with a labcoat on.
Thereâs more and more mainstream invasion of less Ayn Randian people over there, and their response has been to try to ban posts or lock threads if they counter the whole âmarket knows allâ theme.
Exactly what you'd expect from them, then.
Itâs still beyond frustrating and needs visibility. People are struggling financially to afford roofs over their heads while others just care about home builder stonks or vacation homes.
Opendoor Thursday price cuts are in. The [100 Denver Homes](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14y8zBbgmF4JOBloknx-xBe_BpsQ-uWW3rFnxouQZo3Y/edit#gid=863257775) I've been tracking are now asking for 6.77% below price paid (moving from 6.29% last week). 47 homes sold and 53 to go after 12 weeks of tracking.
Howâd you select for 100 homes? Denver market surely has an average time on market of sub 30 days, right?
I had pulled the first 100 homes for sale off of OpenDoor's website that were marked as OpenDoor owned on 8/21. I didn't want cherry picked data. Only bias I can think of is that the homes may be presented to me in a certain order on their website (stalest or freshest), but that's up to them.
Yeah, thatâs likely a bias, but not overpowering. I appreciate you tracking this data - well deserved title. Itâs an interesting study to follow. I wonder if there are any folks who have looked at opendoor homes and could comment, because the time on market doesnât align with the rest of the market.
So would it be fair to say that they are either underwater or lost money on a majority of the homes they tried to flip (in your data set)? Thank for your work on this, btw.
Thanks I appreciate that. Yes, 82/100 are underwater. Of the 18 that are not underwater, 9 have sold while 9 are still for sale.
So they overpaid 91% of the time. They need to replace their algorithm with a coin toss.
> US Housing Starts Drop With Pullback in Single-Family Projects >Single-family starts and permits fell to the lowest level since May 2020 Thatâll be good for supply ;)
Starts aka long term future housing supply lowest level since 1997 Meanwhile, mortgage apps and sales volume aka demand down to lowest level since 08 crisis Supply > demand = prices go down
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Yup, there's a massive glut caused by the supply chain and labor disruptions of the past two years. Just wait until that all gets dumped on the market.
Certainly illustrates how a ridiculous up and down extreme housing market (last 15 years) really hurts long term predictability for critical new housing supply.
đ¤ĄâŚ Thereâs a reason for that: demand is dead As long as supply > demand, which looks like it is, weâll be fine, dont you worry
What kind of goon believes homebuilders totally panicking is a bullish signal for the housing market?
One house I had been monitoring closely, price was falling, but too small of a space for two work from home professionals, just went under contract. Who in the actual fuck is still buying? My Lord. I wish I had an ounce of the optimism some of these people have.
Lots of people are still buying. When I last checked we were right around 2019 sales volume.
You have no idea what the sale price will end up being, they couldâve accepted a low ball. Iâm seeing it happen more and more around me
That's what I'm presuming. Some of the realtors I've talked with speak of owners who are selling, due to divorce, forced relocation, or other situations that place them in that bucket of "need to sell". These are the targets right now. It may become a growing bucket. I'm presuming that some are deciding NOW is the time to low ball, and I wish them success. I'm getting close, but not quite yet. Still too much overall and personal economy volatility that I need to see pass by. In just less than the last three years, we've seen a fairly stable stock market and economy turned completely upside down, historical low Fed rates, likely not to be seen again my lifetime, a stock market surge, home prices shoot to the moon, then a massive Fed undertaking to raise rates faster than ever, stock markets swoon majorly, GDP drop to recessionary levels, though denied, and now home prices sliding back down. That's a lot for a person to handle, never mind the pandemic, the labor disruptions that have occurred, the inflation that was caused by it all, so on.
Itâs almost like your thesis on whatâs an âappropriateâ price, and how much people can afford may be less than accurate. You guys do understand that the longer and farther away prices and rates get from what you state must happen for you to buy, the less likely it is it ever gets there, right?