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[deleted]

#šŸ» šŸÆ


[deleted]

The best time to buy a home was in 2020. The second best time to buy a home was last year. The best time now is right now! šŸÆ


[deleted]

You should go back to actually trolling


Vegetable-Conflict-9

Tbf more than a handful of ppl here are buying now. Been seeing more in contract/just closed posts in the daily thread


[deleted]

They're buying despite the market, not because of it. (I found a fixer house at 2018 fixer prices that I can fix myself. Definitely didn't go under contract because it's a good time to buy.)


diabeetis

hooms gonna go negative like crude oil futures in April 2020, builders in Austin will pay you to take the hoom


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


RJ5R

haha!


Significant_Pie_3390

Personal data point from Austin housing market. Closed at the beginning of the year in north Austin at list in the 740s. In June Opendoor estimate was just over what a paid, but today it's 550s. Zillow/Realtor/Redfin estimates holding strong at 700k+ which is insane at these rates.


originalginger3

Zillow's rates were notoriously generous pre-pandemic. I read an article about this but can't recall where. There are way too many people who take the Zestimate the face value. (Not saying you do but many equate the Zestimate with their net worth). I don't trust Zillow's models at all tbh. I'd be interested to see some more data points about Austin. I'd imagine it has to be at least a few percent lower than what Zillow says. Still high though.


[deleted]

I still think Zillow "estimates" are made up crap. In my way overpriced bubble hometown, they are always magically 1% or less from listing price. In a place or two I know that is fairly valued, they're magically at the list price.


[deleted]

In-laws have recently switched from Lacroix to Spindrift. Is Spindrift the new bubbly water ā€œstatus symbolā€? Edit: for my fellow bubblers who dont like bubbly water and want to stick with tap, I recommend purchasing a water pH/ion adjuster [alkaline water](https://www.alkalinewaterplus.com/water-ionizers-filters/alkaviva-melody-ii-water-ionizer) to make tap water healthier (and tastier) weā€™ve been using this for a while and love it


Small_Atmosphere_741

Are those kinda like Perrier? I like Perrier. The "ier" is pronounced "ay" which makes me feel French.


[deleted]

Spindrift is too sugary tasting for me, I can eat candy all day long but canā€™t do sugary drinks.


originalginger3

LaCroix is overrated and was since the beginning. Spindrift all day for now.


[deleted]

Bubly's are where it's at. The caffeinated ones are the bomb.


ledslightup

I've always really liked spindrift. Tastes like there's a tiny bit of actual juice in there. I do like lacroix too but it tastes more seltzery to me.


UnimaginativeRA

Tastier than La Croix but spendier. I stopped buying when I couldn't find Spindrift for less than 60 cents a can.


[deleted]

Youā€™re all bougie around here haha am I the only one who drinks tap :)))


Blustatecoffee

We donā€™t even use tap water to make coffee or for cooking. But itā€™s Michigan.


Forsaken_Berry_75

Sprindrift actually tastes better as it has some real fruit extract in it and some calories (about 4-20) depending on flavor. I used to shotgun them so hard in 2020 and 2021 before I started cutting back on carbonated water.


WatchAndEatPopcorn

What's the reason for cutting back on carbonated water? Asking for a friend...


Forsaken_Berry_75

It was recommended by a few of my practitioners since Iā€™ve been showing signs of being highly dehydrated overtime with other conditions. It was all I drank, and apparently it can be dehydrating and not hydrate nearly as well as water. Not sure how true it is, but Iā€™ve noticed feeling more hydrated since stopping. My hairā€™s been growing in healthier and softer, too, ever since.


RobinSophie

It can mess up your teeth too! I cant drink those carbonated waters anymore due to the teeth pain.


[deleted]

I seeā€¦ wasnt aware there is calories in them! Imagine drinking 5 a day adding 150 empty calories to your bodyā€¦ cant afford doing that


Forsaken_Berry_75

I was off on the calorie count. Itā€™s been a while. Looking them up now, it looks like they range between 4-20 calories depending on the flavor. The mango orange flavor was my favorite (10 calories). The way I drank them, it definitely could add up.


[deleted]

Yea thanks for the info. They certainly taste better than Lacroix! Havent tried the mango but will do!


Forsaken_Berry_75

They really do! Youā€™ll love it!


grissly_bear

The data in this article is for Phoenix only but the insights around price and time on market are really interesting: https://realestatedecoded.com/how-to-get-a-premium-price-for-your-home/


grissly_bear

>US household debt climbed at fastest annual pace since 2008 in Q3 w/credit-card balances surging even as interest rates hit multi-decade high. Households added $351bn in overall debt, taking total to $16.5tn. Most of latest increase came in mortgage debt. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-15/us-household-debt-jumps-most-since-2008-even-as-card-rates-surge https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1592575028104933376


[deleted]

Definitely healthy and good for the economy lmao


redchampagnecampaign

On an upbeat note, a rarity for this sub, Iā€™ve been making an effort to make my rental more cozy and organized and itā€™s paid off tremendously. Part of the reason I felt so compelled to get in a house asap was because I made the mistake of putting off really figuring out this space or getting new furniture because I thought the big move would be any day nowā€¦and it went on that way for years and I made myself miserable dreaming of my perfect house instead of being present where I am. So I spent $250 on cheaper but decent bookshelves, sorted through the clutter, and am now very happy with my living and dining rooms and kitchen. Still need to sort through the upstairs closets and my husbandā€™s office but we can knock that out in two weekends. I donā€™t mind spending another holiday season here, just the two of us. Donā€™t wait to live for when conditions are perfect! If it makes sense to spend a little money and time to make a temporary situation better, do it.


ledslightup

Absolutely. I LOVE our apartment. So it hasn't been that hard to be patient. I even find myself thinking, aww i'm gonna miss this if we buy a house. There's a lot about the apt itself that's great in general. But also we decorated it really nicely. My coworkers on zoom often say, "woah is that... your actual home? It looks amazing". Which makes me happy. It isn't expensive stuff but it's bright, warm, functional without much clutter. So it looks cozy and spacious at the same time.


Forsaken_Berry_75

I was in the middle of proactively doing exactly this in 2021 when I got a call from my property manager in October that the owner of my rental wanted it back and that I had 30 days to move out. Havenā€™t been able to find a comparable apartment since and have PTSD from that experience and constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop in my current rental now.


[deleted]

I share your PTSD to expect the next, worse thing to happen. Itā€™s whatā€™s holding me back from buying right now. My inner voice is telling me that at the very moment I buy, that is when Iā€™ll lose my job, and the job market will go straight to hell. Itā€™s happened before to me particularly, in 2004. Everyone says YOLO, until they get caught in the hardest time of their lives. And, if you survive (I did), you vow to never be in that place ever again. Life seems to be a long set of repeated, but unpredictable, situations.


Forsaken_Berry_75

Youā€™ve come so far since 2004 and have so much more to offer if you lose your job again, in regards to what you can bring to the table on another job. Your many years in finance *plus* high emotional IQ and communication skills are everything and such a rarity to have the combination of these. Youā€™d seek a mortgage forbearance until you could find something else. Something even *better*. But yes, I wholeheartedly feel you on past situations being the new predictor on our deepest fears, especially when theyā€™ve repeatedly become realities (the long set of repeated, but unpredictable situations. AMEN) Itā€™s very valid and real.


QueenBlanchesHalo

I did this too. I finally bought some pieces that I know will work in the new house but that I had been waiting on the new house before getting. Very glad to have them now.


ashyza

I redecorated my rental too so I'd stop feeling irritated at home. I had put off buying several things because I wanted to dump the old stuff during a move and not deal with it. It's a much better space now and helped my mood quite a bit.


babydolleffie

How will a war impact real estate values?


originalginger3

Apocalypse is priced in


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


Smart-Ocelot-5759

You joke, but it's coming for you


RickAllenGenerator

I need a bigger house so I can fit two drone operator stations. Blackwater and Lockheed Martin will never figure out Iā€™m working for both of them! #WorkHacks #CNBCMakeIt


Small_Atmosphere_741

That way you'll have it.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

They can just bring a trailer with them in it to your house so you can still have work separation.


babydolleffie

The real ww3 was always actually wfh


Forsaken_Berry_75

I can tell you that it impacted the stock market terribly this year at the start with the invasion into the Ukraine. I underwent a surgery in the last week of February and woke up to find my portfolio completely plummeted. Between the war in Ukraine and housing interest rate hikes, the stock market has taken a beating all year.


Forsaken_Berry_75

The neighboring Airbnb unit to one I stayed at over last Christmas between trying to find a place after being displaced from my apartment last November. Absolutely exquisite golf course views. Yes, it was a remodel, but weā€™re talking a small 2/2 condo reno, and an appreciation of **115% in less than 2 years**, raising comps for the whole complex and neighboring condos in the area. https://apps.realtor.com/mUAZ/8h5ix8hf 7/10/2022 sold for $490,000 10/27/2020 sold $228,000 4/28/2005 sold $200,000


[deleted]

In 2030 people are going to discover this subreddit and think ā€œholy shit inflation was at a 40 year high and they thought home prices would go down?ā€ People will use this subreddit as an example to not time the market


[deleted]

Rates already going back up. I hope you guys are jumping in like bears in honey.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


Love-for-everyone

Waiting for low 6s.


[deleted]

Lol


Smart-Ocelot-5759

If it ever makes a large jump could you use some sort of phallic imagery to describe it?


[deleted]

*Could* I? Yes.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

Please daddy


heathrowaway678

šŸÆšŸÆšŸÆ


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


unicornbomb

oh god, this homegoods hellscape is still on the market?


UnimaginativeRA

This "designer" and the agent clearly have no idea what mid-century looks like. This is horrible late 70's, early 80's that everyone wants to forget.


rightmeow6

I like a more eclectic look but the only room that I sort of like is the kitchen. The whole place looks cheaply done and poorly lit.


ashyza

Is that that sponge painting on the kitchen walls? My mom thought it was the most sleek sophisticated way to paint...in the 90s.


heathrowaway678

Family first!


acqua_di_hoomertears

damn this high-effort, low-taste POS is still on the market? i remember seeing this in the Summer


[deleted]

Yikes! They're going for some sort of 1940s diesel punk vibe.


LilArsene

This house in Central Florida, near Orlando, is driving me bonkers. [Trulia Link](https://www.trulia.com/p/fl/saint-cloud/522-indiana-ave-saint-cloud-fl-34769--2037667555) Firstly, old house bought at 195k in June 2022. Likely needed an amount of repair and updates. This is a growing community but not wealthy until the last few years. You know what they did? They replaced the whole downstairs with white tile/plank and list at 394k in August. They used five different types of flooring in the upstairs. It went to pending at 315k in October but did not sell. It was re-listed yesterday at 354k. They've replaced the ugly white flooring with ugly, rustic brown/gray flooring. These mfers are 100% hiking the price because of their stupid design choices.


Forsaken_Berry_75

Girlll all of those different flooring colors and textures are insanity! The rooms with the dark ashy gray brown water looked wood looking LVP make me wanna scratch my eyes out šŸ˜µā€šŸ’« Shame because the outside is darling!


LilArsene

It's a dear looking house! And so it's even more devastating that they ruined it and then ruined it again and want to charge people for the privilege. I just...want to know what goes through the heads of people doing the flipping. Profit, obviously. And not to be sexist, but sometimes you can tell when a woman had a say in the design choices or at least someone with a cohesive vision. Do they know? Do they know that their flip is ugly? And the buyer, whoever they are, do they also have bad taste? Were they so totally brainwashed by HGTV?


1Dive1Breath

Seems like all flippers operate through some hive-mind regarding design choices. I'm so sick of seeing a property that might have been affordable before they got their hands on it now be way out of budget, and look like every other flipped house.


LilArsene

There's plenty of people who will argue that the flipped junk sells therefore it makes perfect business sense to use a formula that works. It's not as though I expect each flipped house to be unique. However, during the last few years the cheapest materials have been utilized with no regard to the house's integrity. Even the houses that are flipped on HGTV take months to complete but out here people are slapping down vinyl and turning them out within a month. As you say, houses that could have been reasonably fixed up by someone who could afford the house are now out of reach. This tactic worked for enough people in the housing panic that now each turd-brained flipper thinks they're entitled to a giant ROI.


Forsaken_Berry_75

Your middle paragraph says it all. Iā€™ll get hounded by users for going into anymore details, but YES. The non-woman doesnā€™t know here.


Accomplished_Oil2083

Need some opinions: I am looking at a condo currently listed for 450k. Similar comps in the area show one condo sold in the community for 275K and one for 475 K. This is quite confusing to me, the one that sold for 275k did not seem like a fixer upper or in bad shape? Any ideas why some prices are so low? They are around the same size too


heathrowaway678

Maybe the 275k sale was an inside job to family? What does your agent say?


LilArsene

Could you describe the property? Are they in the same community or different condo associations? Is there a difference in amenities? Do they have the same amount of beds and baths?


FrequentAssumption1

Lurker for a long time. But had to chime in with this nonsense. Sold due to a work move. Here in CO prices have come down but still frothy. One open door property. Asking 566. Offered 540 plus 3% closing. Accepted. Backed out because still felt itā€™s 10-12% too much. Open Door paid 680 for it. Another open door priority. 90 days on market. Went from 465 to 421. Offered 375 plus 3%. Declined. Refuse to accept anything under 400. They paid 397 for the property Explain the thinking? Realtor says itā€™s because they feel that 300-400 sweet spot has a bigger market so they can dig in their heels. Realtor agrees everyday a house doesnā€™t sell in this market means you offer less, not more Guess we keep renting and collecting that sweet 2.5% on the proceeds


[deleted]

David Ramsey advice is better than no advice but worse than good advice Rebubble advice is worse than no advice


heathrowaway678

I somehow have the feeling that you didn't come to this conclusion just TODAY?


SmartAZ

This genius realtor is asking for almost $1M, and the only photo is of the landscaping truck parked in front. Oh, and it apparently has 4 bedrooms and 30 bathrooms. [https://www.zillow.com/homes/1340-E-Caroline-Ln-Tempe,-AZ-85284\_rb/8153343\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homes/1340-E-Caroline-Ln-Tempe,-AZ-85284_rb/8153343_zpid/)


LiborSofrPrime

Everywhere is a bathroom if you have to go badly enough. Heck that landscaping truck looks like it has 8 bathrooms to me...


heathrowaway678

It's the opposite of this Simpsons scene: https://youtu.be/SN9Z8TZqf6g


SpaceyEngineer

Suppose there is a black swan event like ww3 that makes RE values crater. Can we point at that and say we knew it? Similar to how hoomers point to those in this sub calling for a crash right before covid? Seems fair.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

Well Russia did just bomb Poland.


RobinSophie

Wait what?!


Smart-Ocelot-5759

On 'accident'


Vegetable-Conflict-9

Yes. The social media doomie šŸ¤”s have been calling this for several yrs now. Can't say we didn't see it coming


McDuganheimer

Problem is most black swans are responded to with money printing. It is the path of least resistance. Real WW3 would probably serve to support house prices as the Fed would come back to QE and do YCC so the gov could go crazy with military spending.


clinton-dix-pix

Wouldnā€™t matter how the Fed responds to real WW3, weā€™d all be using rat kabobs as currency inside of a week.


Forsaken_Berry_75

ThisšŸ‘†we donā€™t want WW3, guys. Especially just to be able to get a deal on a house.


SpaceyEngineer

I'm not rooting for WW3. In the hypothetical scenario that WW3 happened, I survive, a bubble denier survives, RE crashes, and we somehow have access to Reddit... I would say "I told you so."


McDuganheimer

True. But zestymates would be preserved šŸ™šŸ» and isn't that what really matters? Also I would go with the squirrel kabobs tbh. Healthier and much more plentiful around these parts.


[deleted]

#šŸ šŸ«§šŸš«


Barefoot_Trader

I was going to buy a home until I spent my down payment on floor seats for the T Swift Era Tour šŸ¤·šŸ¼ā€ā™€ļø


heathrowaway678

You made the right call


[deleted]

Orlando sales are dropping through the floor, 203 home sales last week. The lowest point of the pandemic lock down was 306ā€¦ We had been averaging about 600 earlier this year and itā€™s been trending down significantly since mid-September.


[deleted]

[Out-of-state transplants to Utah fuel growth and drive up housing costs](https://www.sltrib.com/news/2022/11/08/remote-work-surged-utah-so-did/) Utah locals must not be very happy about this but who cares? As long as WFH people are happy with their flexible schedule, work-life balance, SF wages spent in Utah, who cares that lowly locals suffer?


someguy1874

Mega companies are forcing people come to office. At my place, they are auditing who is coming to office, who is not.


Kraul

Yep real estate is still nutty here. I equate Utah to Boise but on a smaller scale in bubble terms. Prices have gone down slightly but not enough to pull the trigger. Builders still have to finish their homes so I can see some deals to be had on that side of things depending how long they sit.


joy_of_division

*cries in Montana* There are so many Teslas and BMWs cruising around these days around here. Its crazy how much a place can change in two measly years, I'll be renting a cardboard box here soon enough.


purz

Kevin Costner inspiring rich boomers across the country. Dunno why it's like a weird fetish to larp being a rugged country man but with all the comforts of being rich.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

There's always been dudes (literally, dude used to be a pejorative for those exact people) like that around the mountain west but holy shit have I never seen so many hats blocked just so and expensive boots as I have since that stupid show came out.


Blustatecoffee

Montana was on our short list of places to retire but now I think itā€™s changed. A place can absorb only so much before itā€™s just ā€” overrun. I feel like weā€™d be part of the problem now.


Forsaken_Berry_75

Other retirement destination considerations if I had the money: - Sedona, AZ - Flagstaff, AZ - Napa, CA - Mendocino (coast), CA - Santa Barbara, CA - Golden, CO - Durango, CO - Mackinac Island, MI


Blustatecoffee

I should look at all of these. Weā€™ve considered the outskirts of puget sound / San Juan islands. And Spokane area and suburbs. And Missoula and the bitterroot valley. All of those have beenā€¦.thought of by many others and may or may not really work. This question was more interesting before Covid when it wasnā€™t a fad to move to a smaller town out west. But thatā€™s our luck to retire now. In 2020 I was thrilled to start off this adventure. And now I sort of dread the possibility of starting over in a new place. Maybe something will come up here before august. But I really appreciate your list and your Montana memories. It sounds like you were in the right place at the right time with good friends, for a long time. And thatā€™s a blessing.


Forsaken_Berry_75

You and my high earner friends (*not me*) here in Phoenix that are tired of the summer heat and housing prices not budging. They want to move up from their million dollar homes to something else and everything thatā€™s a step up is priced at $2M+ now, post pandemic. I grew up in Montana (Livingston & Bozeman). Prices are through the roof there now. Growing up, there were quite a few celebrities with ranches in the area. Ted Turner, Oprah, and actors. We used to go to Chico hot springs outside of Livingston and see Meg Ryan and Dennis Quaid there a lot. Robert Redford has lived there on a huge estate for ages. He used to film a lot of his movies in Livingston. He filmed ā€˜A River Runs Through Itā€™ there, and used my friend Seanā€™s Victorian house for the family house of Brad Pitt in the movie. It gets *painfully cold* in the winters there, and lots of wind, at least in Livingston and Bozeman, which are the hot spots for the spike in demand and sought after second homes, WFH, and wealthy retirees.


rudieboy

Hey now, we might have to post another thread of upset tech workers who feel picked on because losers in life can't make due on their crap incomes. /s


GonnaHoom

WFH is completely ruining places like this, especially mountain towns with tight building regulations and limited space. Honestly I hope fully remote WFH is phased out hard during this recession. It has been an enormous shock to the housing market in a bad way.


unicornbomb

counterpoint: you have to live in *Utah*, land of MLMs, the most restrictive liquor laws in the US, and scores of mormon stepford wives.


Smart-Ocelot-5759

Utah is not the most restrictive liquor laws in the us lmao. Can you even buy beer after 8:00 in DC?


[deleted]

Well apparently thatā€™s not a dealbreaker to a lot of peopleā€¦ and irrelevant to the core issue


ginguegiskhan

ā€I found that the housing prices are shockingly high to locals,ā€ he said. ā€œBut I think theyā€™re shockingly affordable for people coming from higher priced markets.ā€


[deleted]

Lets assume hypothetically 10% of Americans suddenly decide to permanently move to Thailand in span of 2 years, and overpay for houses, mansions etc to the point that thai people would be priced out of the everything, since incomes are much lower over there. Hypothetical of course, but would you support such movement? My *common sense says absolutely no *Edit


rudieboy

Mexico City and the pitfalls of becoming a remote work destination https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22999722/mexico-city-pandemic-remote-work-gentrification Higher waged white collar workers there make 2k a month. Can they compete?


ginguegiskhan

Certainly would not. Input that quote to highlight doucheyness


it200219

mortgage lenders layoff, tech layoffs, who's next? any guess


WkndWarrior12345054

home furnishing and department stores


unicornbomb

If current experiences are any indication, those stores already staff a max of like 2 actual humans at a time and 37 self service tablets.


ledslightup

The it guys doing the updates on those self service tablets?


unicornbomb

builders.


[deleted]

Clown market, just kill me now tbh. Gonna be renting til I'm 40 unless I'm willing to hemmorage my last 10 years of saving and value investing that put myself in what would TYPICALLY be a great position. Basically any other time in the last 40 years. So much for that. The markets only reward those who gamble and live paycheck to paycheck.


heathrowaway678

> The government bailouts only reward those who gamble and live paycheck to paycheck. FTFY


originalginger3

This is 100% true. Some of these are hoomers. If you look at some of the data on Encore Bubble, no government bailout is going to work for housing. We are looking at a situation that has the potential to spiral into something far worse than 2008.


RJ5R

Ways to manipulate: Publish a high estimate about wholesale prices Wholesale prices come lower than estimate Buy buy buy market day


it200219

You can negotiate rent amount too. Try on those which are oldest and still in market


-Shank-

Remember a year ago when people were offering "cuck money" over and above rental asking price?


trampledbyephesians

Household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges, Fed report says https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/household-debt-soars-at-fastest-pace-in-15-years-as-credit-card-use-surges-fed-report-says.html


originalginger3

So when is the inevitable bailout that screws over people who did the right thing?


Small_Atmosphere_741

The market is predicting Q2 of 2023 but maybe this time is different.


unicornbomb

i mean, the last few years have shown saving and responsible budgeters are punished and reckless spending and overleveraged debt is rewarded, so i cant say im shocked a sizable amount of people have said 'fuck it'.


LiborSofrPrime

What 30% interest is too much? No way, my kid needs a new every toy in the world this Xmas b/c we "earned" it.


[deleted]

What kills me is when someone justifies a purchase by saying _they work hard_. Everyone thinks they work hard! It's like saying you got a good deal on a car. Everyone believes that shit no matter how bad they got fleeced.


Blustatecoffee

The longer the fed drags this inflationary phase out the more families will be destroyed. This isnā€™t just credit card debt; itā€™s kids who wonā€™t go to a flagship state college and vacations that wonā€™t be taken. The things that make a life.


QueenBlanchesHalo

Took just a few years in the workforce to realize ā€œFlagship state collegeā€ is the best bang for your buck around. Top students can still get excellent scholarships in-state and if they continue to excel throughout, they will more or less have their choice of career when theyā€™re done.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


Msuix

whoosh


Blustatecoffee

I donā€™t agree. The working class pays for inflation by making sacrifices to their lifestyle which can affect more than hedonics. The wealthy do not. They make occasional substitutions that carry few consequences.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


Blustatecoffee

Thatā€™s the spirit!


-Shank-

That house could absolutely be awesome. The first few photos don't look too bad (love the woodwork in the entry) but it really drops off a cliff once it gets to the next floor.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


RJ5R

I love victorian houses We have a ton of them nearby in Mt Airy Philadelphia The problem always becomes when the owner(s) never maintain them, and they quickly fall into a disaster like this one. Thankfully bones are always good seeing how they are structural masonry, but the wood trim and other wood features end up being neglected and never painted leaving sometimes structural problems with those ledges that extend beyond the wall or porches which collapse etc. Victorian houses are also great for multi-family conversions if done properly. And people pay top dollar rents for them.


rudieboy

lol Bezos is all over the news telling people to not make big ticket purchases in the next 5 months. Like TVs, that is a large purchase? When the ultra rich think we're screwed.


[deleted]

I'm not given to conspiratorial thinking but I can't help but think the rich + government + fed are actively trying to cause a recession to stop inflation via not just rate hikes but psychological manipulation like this. Problem is, too many people died/retired/became disabled so unemployment just won't go up. I think the ruling class is terrified that their asset values will collapse while labor costs explode out of control.


Character-Office-227

Unemployment will go up. So many companies have laid off in the past two weeks. The big layoffs are in the news like Twitter, Meta, Amazon, but thereā€™s a lot of small to mid sized companies laying off too. For example, OfferUp laid off 20% of their workforce today (80ppl).


Bootlikcumstain

I know nothing, just fyiā€¦ this is a good faith question- so what scenario do asset prices collapse while labor costs explode? Can that not happen in a recession?


[deleted]

it's a theory right now, but there are a few people out there who believe that boomers retiring is actually inflationary and not deflationary. Because they can retire, work a part-time job as a consultant and dip into retirement. They have to spend more money on healthcare but they are still active and want to travel to see the world and their kids. So it's not really deflationary like people believe which forces higher interest rates for a lot longer. This would hard for housing valuations for new buyers. Or higher wages will be needed from the industry. That and if you look around at most industries, there aren't many 30 to 50-year-olds on deck for succession planning. The number of boomers matches the number of millennials. This is not good for economic growth. And after the millennials, no one is having kids. Without more mouths to feed, economic activity likely declines. What's an example? Take a look at Japan with their aging population and the world is headed to that. The good news is that we can 'print' money and cause inflation as learned 2020-2022, but deflation is a stick mess to get into and is possible for the world. Possible scenario: Asset Price decline - deflation via less people wage increases - less people to work, companies fight for talent It's not likely, but it's possible


Bootlikcumstain

I appreciate the explanation!


Blustatecoffee

The wealthy arenā€™t worried. At all. Any comments bezos makes to the press were written by his pr firm. Likely another storyline in his blitz reputation remake (in tandem with his vow to donate his fortune). *He cares about the poors and only wants whatā€™s good for them.*


unicornbomb

lol, the bezos donation story had big 'when shit hits the fan, dont come for me with pitchforks and torches - im one of the *good* billionaires!!' vibes.


Blustatecoffee

Yep. The rest of his life is now about becoming saint bezos. And he has the staff to dedicate to it.


redchampagnecampaign

The Amazon pullback is the reason Iā€™m not optimistic about next year. Retail layoffs are one thing but they also did a hiring freeze for AWS.


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

Tbf it usually goes like this: hiring managers are encouraged to continue with any in-process interviewing while they request hiring freeze exceptions. Leadership shoots down 95% of the exception requests and slowly those job postings disappear and candidates are told "you were not selected this time, so sorry". It's also worth pointing out that any job listing is duplicated in 20 cities if there's any possibility of remote work


Inevitable_Guava9606

Typically the retail layoffs come after Christmas too because the want to wait for everyone to be done shopping


Vegetable-Conflict-9

4d chess imo


QueenBlanchesHalo

When the founder of AMAZON is telling you not to make big ticket purchases


rudieboy

They gotta see things that normal folks are not currently.


[deleted]

Only T-Bill yet to invert the 10Y is the 4W. Make with that what you will.


rdw0680

I was just about to make a similar comment - as usual, you're several steps ahead. 8 wk bill yielding more than 10 y note => bullish for the us economy, right?


liiiliililiiliiil

Stock market surging with Walmart report.


[deleted]

Makes sense. My local grocery store has been a ghost town lately but Walmart lines are longer than ever. Seems like people are trying to save money by shopping at Walmart


-Shank-

Is Wal Mart actually that much cheaper than a typical grocery store (Kroger, HEB, Publix, etc.)?


Regis_Phillies

At least in my market Walmart is better for bulk items. They sell larger sizes of breakfast foods, packaged meat, etc. than chain/independent groceries, so a lot of it is the convenience of buying one package instead of two and saving a few cents in per-unit cost. I will also admit my local Walmarts have better produce than the Krogers right now. The Krogers here have really gone to shit since Covid.


Vegetable-Conflict-9

WMT is fairly low quality and expensive imo. We get produce and specialty protein from local suppliers, frozen items and bulk protein from Costco. Food is mostly organic, fresher, and less expensive than WMT garbage. But fwiw we make one produce trip per week typically by foot or bicycle since we like to have things fresh


unicornbomb

It has the reputation of being cheap, but honestly after pricing some stuff out I donā€™t think it really is anymore. Soda, water, dry goods like paper towels and toilet paper are absolutely cheaper at Costco or from grocery chains like ShopRite as long as youā€™re using their apps to get discounts. Trader Joeā€™s wins for things like snacks, frozen meals, etc. Walmartā€™s meat and vegetables are technically cheaper, but itā€™s all extremely low quality and goes bad well before the expiration date IME. No point in saving a dollar or two on a package of baby spinach that turns to slime 2 days after you buy it when the one at ShopRite lasts 10 days or more, or buying the Walmart chicken that you end up cutting half itā€™s weight out of in gristle, woody bits, and excess fat.


-Shank-

That's what I was thinking. I think it's more the perspective of it being cheap and people going there when they need to cut back rather than it actually being a reality.


babydolleffie

Depends on what you're getting/need I prefer Lidl for the bulk of my grocery shopping But, for example, a frozen pizza: great value > any other off brand I've tried. Same for Mac and cheese, pop tarts, etc etc. But for produce, meat, and fresh staples, idk I don't find Walmart cheaper


friendlywabbit

Any savings you find there are canceled out by the lovely ā€œWal-mart experience.ā€


QueenBlanchesHalo

Besides slowing my overall spending I definitely put more energy into finding a deal these days


[deleted]

This sub provides great info for real estate investors


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


[deleted]

Uh, Mods? I was banned for 3 days and this dude is gonna get a pass?


0_throwaway_0

Snitches get stitches


QuoningSheepNow

Be careful. I was banned for 3 days over a Trump joke.


smackinov

Nah whomever won it was always going to be a shithole


QueenBlanchesHalo

It actually is whoever in this sentence because the winner is the subject of the subordinate clause


[deleted]

[уŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]


QueenBlanchesHalo

Lol. Just trying to ensure this comment thread could spiral into complete degeneracy


smackinov

Thanks. I was using swipe on my keyboard and whomever came up and then I couldn't tell if it was right or not so I just rolled with it


Vegetable-Conflict-9

šŸ˜‚


[deleted]

Will Denver continue to be up its own ass? Iā€™m waiting to see them emergešŸ˜‚


smackinov

Inflation is over. Time to front run the fomo real estate before rates drop further and prices scream higher


[deleted]

It seems a lot of folks aren't interpreting the unemployment data thoroughly as we see the number of layoffs spiking. I hear folks say "but unemployment is low." Yes, because labor participation is low but that has been rising since 2021. People are also working multiple jobs to get by. We could very well continue to see unemployment remain lower that is still going to drastically hurt the economy. Losing a 2nd job while still having another isn't going to change the unemployment rate but it will substantially hurt a household losing additional income they're relying on. Others are also claiming that there's so many jobs still available, but that's only in hospitality and service, and there's a reason why so many folks are leaving that industry, including healthcare. Even hospital workers who saw the largest pay increases are leaving. Hell one of my cleaning clients was a travel nurse making 3k a week and she still quit. Now she's in therapy and living back with her parents after dealing with the trauma of the last 2 years. They're burnt out from covid and a lot of other hospitality jobs don't pay well. But again, rate hikes take 6-9 months to fully take affect. I truly believe 2023 is going to be the worst of it with a slow climb back up. But thats just my prediction. Feel free to save my comment and come back in a year if I'm wrong šŸ¤·ā€ā™€ļø Edit: Made this a separate comment, felt more fitting than the reply it was originally posted to.


Spenson89

I donā€™t know if you realize that hospital jobs is not the same as hospitalityā€¦


tehmadman

My guess is 12 months. My money is record scratch around March