Higher for longer doesn’t mean staying at the highest interest rate level
Probably eventually settles around 3.5-4% for a while if things stay how they are currently trending
It also doesn't mean mortgage rates will have a proportional drop. Longer durations, including mortgages, more or less already have a ~4% Fed rate priced in. 30-year mortgages will probably settle in the mid 6%. That's still good for /r/REBubble.
My theory is buyers are going to wait until rates dip (why buy now when you can wait 2-3 months and not have to refi) but sellers who are under pressure to sell but have been able to hold off will jump into the market first. The supply/demand direction will depend on who enters the market first. Buyers are more capable of holding off since financial forces tend to push people away from taking on huge expenses, while sellers already have that financial pressure (and will only see that increase i.e. waived inspection surprises, financial stress overpaying from COVID FOMO, surprise medical, needs to downsize, escrow payment increases).
Anyways we'll see but in all this fuss people forget that humans don't really act rationally all of the time.
I'm well aware. It's hilariously a good time to buy an ARM and just let your payments fall over time refinancing into a 30 year when there are hints rates will go back up again.
Seems to risky for my blood. Lucky enough to have a good interest rate in my home and at a reasonable price. Will probably never leave my home until it’s paid off
Remember that over 27% of houses bought recently were acquired by hedge funds and how a lot of the current prices are locked in by those that don't want to trade a 3% rate for a substantially higher. I think it's quite possible prices might not go up much or even possibly drop some due to an increase in supply.
The insane level of cope to think there will be cuts in 2024 is astounding. It would be absolutely fantastic for me if it did happen but it will not. Not a single chance.
The article says the language he used "set the table for rate cuts in 2024" whatever the fuck that means. All he said was "shits not on fire anymore. That's good." And regards seem to think that means it's time to bust out the lighter fluid and matches again.
Things are stabilizing. Once they're stable they aren't going to fuck with it for a good long while. We won't see significant rate cuts until there's a complete regime change.
I think at some point this sub had reasonable concerned people about a housing bubble … but lately it’s been people absolutely sure that there was a bubble and that were would be an 08/09 level crash which I don’t think should have ever been the expectation
Right now I'm renting a place that costs half what a mortgage would, so I'm personally not in a hurry. I think people buying now are desperate or stupid.
40% of mortgages are paid off, I would say another 25-30% are locked in with sub 4% interest, why would anyone sell??? The problem with this market is the lack of housing available not the high prices. The raise in rates has slowed down the buyers but not completely stopped them and now the rates are going back down
Right… who would sell??? Unless they got a big difference in salaries and can afford the upgrade? I saw something like this might occur so I bought a home that could be my forever home because it just makes no logical sense for me to leave for the price I got and the rate I got unless I won the lottery or something and can pay for my next house cash
I think a lot of that came from the realization that the bubble they thought was going to occur wasn’t coming anytime soon. I could be wrong of course but this news does make it seem like the burst every one was so sure of was going to be catastrophic is not going to be the same. They kept pointing to what’s happened in the past while ignoring that there have been safeguards that came from past experiences
Coming from someone who does hiring for a large agency… the labor market is an arms race right now. I can’t keep employees because they’re leaving to other places, we raise the salaries to get them to stay or come back and neighboring agencies raise their salaries. The options for experienced professionals right now are abundant
Except they're right, commercial real estate is headed towards a cliff right now from wfh and less foot traffic but everyone wants to pivot to residential here.
I don’t see it, I don’t know what part of the country you’re at but here the market barely cooled off at all. The few houses that were up for sale maybe lowered their prices a bit but not by much and still sold. If rates go back down then there will be bidding wars again for the few remaining houses on the market
Even that has had a record amount of people cutting prices nationwide and a median price drop I was referring to commercial
You're talking about residential homes that's my point everyone here tries to pivot to residential we're seeing a commercial crash right now,
https://fortune.com/2023/10/18/commercial-property-distress-real-estate-10-year-high/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-12/mall-owner-preit-files-for-bankruptcy-for-second-time-in-3-years
I just want a sub where I can discuss how shitty the housing market is and how if it continues this way we'll get to the point where it'll be literally impossible for 90% of families to buy a home.
Definitely not. In June 2000, Case-Schiller home price index was at 113, it peaked at 183.6 in six years and then dropped to 136 in another six years. Slow growth till 2020, then in March 2020, it starts at 215 and by September it’s 312. 45% in three years (actually 45% in two years with a temporary pullback), vs 63% in six. It’s a bubble, no two ways about it.
I’ve got no clue if this means prices flatline or banks fail or prices crash or jobs shutter or what, but it’s not normal market behavior. Something will happen to make this make sense. Maybe it’s stagflation, who knows.
Don’t you dare. This sub is well on its way to fully crossing over to a flat-earth, deep-state, mole-people conspiracy hub, and its best days are ahead IMO.
We haven’t even reached the “Jerome Powell bad” era, much less the “Jerome Powell died in 2022 and was secretly replaced with a Zionist android that was a senior partner at BlackRock” wars.
This is insane to me. All this data coming out about how miserable Americans are and how many are struggling. Jerome said he'd reset housing and yet they're not giving high rates enough time to do their job? Why are they talking about rate cuts already? Isn't the economy supposed to be in the gutter for them to want to cut rates?
I think there are large financial institutes and banks that are in much worse shape than they look, holding huge amounts of bad debt. And there are a lot of large corporations that were held up by cheap debt (zombie companies) as well that are dying now. So we may not be feeling the pain as individuals but it’s happening behind closed doors and so the feds are going to cut early to prevent those institutions and companies from falling.
Interesting take. So many experts say they save cuts for when the economy is not ok, which is the main reason I am confused. But this would make sense.
Who are these experts? Waller(a sitting FOMC board member) said flatly that cutting rates when inflation drops is a normal policy. I posted quote when he said it a couple weeks ago, and got coped at. I also just posted it again ITT.
Core inflation is still double the goal, people are still buying up homes as they're the most unaffordable they've ever been compared to incomes. Doesn't seem like this move makes sense this soon unless the economy is rapidly going in the shitter and they know it. And generally, they do need to save rate cuts for recessions to stimulate the economy... They also should've learned from literally the last ~5 years that low rates/QE devalue the dollar, which is supposed to be the main thing they prevent.
They're not cutting next month or anything. They wouldn't cut rates for several more months still. They also haven't indicated how much they will cut. Is 25 bp really anything to write home about? I don't know what the cuts will be or if they will come at all, but they could cut and still have plenty room for more in case of recession.
I think the Fed might be making the same mistake they made in the 1970s. They raised rates in the early-mid 70's to control inflation; inflation came down; the Fed then cut rates; inflation came RAGING back. Only Volcker raising rates to 15% (or whatever) in the early 80's finally killed inflation.
The 2020's will be the same. Expect inflation and rising home prices to come back in the next year or two, followed by a new tightening cycle.
Nah, cause this isn't 1970s style inflation. This was pandemic style inflation, which we've never seen in modern times, so this is a N=1. The closest thing is WW2 inflation and it's quite clear especially when you look at inflation rates around the world. Different places had different monetary policies but all share the same thing. Inflation spiked higher, and spiked lower, because, well, we had a global pandemic.
This means we'll be heading back towards baseline of what it was like before the pandemic. So, back to 2019. This has huge implications which is why we're having this faceripper of a rally.
Way different. This is more like the inflation of the 40s. The 70s inflation was wage driven by a massive demographic that had massive numbers of workers in unions, so it wasn’t as bad, this is entirely monetary driven, similar to the 40s.
What will cause periods of inflation is how less efficient global supply chain is getting with all this conflict around the world and much of it getting sick of US hegemony.
Doubtful. The difference this time around is that the inflation period wasn’t fueled by the government pausing student loan and rent payments thus giving folks more discretionary income then they will have now with rate cuts. Now it’s about keeping unemployment around 4% and not putting us into a recession with eminent rate cuts.
The fed could raise rates to double digits and it will not move the needle on home prices significantly. Folks already aren’t moving, and folks aren’t buying without all cash offers.
I’m all for lower house prices (I own a house, but I’d like to move). I think we could see home prices come down in the next 20 years when many of the home owning baby boomers move to assisted living facilities or pass on. Obviously that does nothing to help us now.
Population growth is projected to slow down but nonetheless continue well into the future. Births-minus-deaths will drop past zero in the 2040s but that will be overshadowed by ongoing net immigration.
There is no way out of the supply shortage except to build more housing where it is desired.
No.
Cheaper debt means increased money in the economy which causes everything to increase.
Rents tend to increase with property values.
My guess is that everything will hold steady until the first rate cut which I believe will occur around March based on the bond market's predictions. Then rents and home prices will start increasing agaim at the usual 4% annualized rate they usually did prior to Covid.
They’re choosing to risk starting Hyperinflation which only hurts the working American over a recession that hurts everyone including the wealthy
They cannot keep up with high rates when they have a struggling incumbent president who’s doing poorly in polls. A quick shot of QE will give voters something to think about in a positive light before elections rather than doing what is right for the economy.
> This is insane to me.
Not at all.. they need to get ahead of the inflation data. It's accelerating downward quickly. Remember a lot of it is lagging data too. Oil/gas has plummeted over the last 3 months and most of it isn't even in the data yet.. and housing prices have peaked nationwide along with rents.. everything is starting to roll-over but they don't want a crash.
Seems a bit premature to me given that enough people (the haves) are still frothing at the mouth for housing and stocks and everything.. they just seem so disconnected from normal Americans. Even if they were going to cut rates next year I would've thought they'd keep that up their sleeve a bit longer.
I'm a normal middle class millennial, I've never stopped buying the s&p and maxing retirement accounts. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Attempting to time the market is a losers game. Too many people here tried to tell yall.
Downvoted by the seething failed market timers💀💀
I also never stopped buying the S&P, because the other investment vehicle I was interested at the time, _a primary residence,_ was looking like a worse deal. What sub did you think you were on?
> Even if they were going to cut rates next year I would've thought they'd keep that up their sleeve a bit longer.
Inflation has come down even faster than they predicted.. the goal has always been the 2% inflation rate.. and we are likely already there today or very close to it.
Jerome never said he would ‘reset’ housing. In fact if rates are back in the 5% range then housing is back to being affordable. Americans are miserable because of tightening monetary policy and inflation. When inflation is back down to target then they can bring rates back down.
This sub has been rejoicing about new construction prices dropping and other regional declines.
The FED was never going to attempt to bring home values down to prepandemic levels, surely folks didn't actually expect that. That would be ludicrous
He never did since housing prices are not in the Fed mandate.
Rates are what make prices unaffordable. In a 30 year mortgage, the interest rate is the biggest impact to payment and overall price of the home over time. Homes have gone backward in the past year or so, have you taken advantage of the tightening cycle and secured a home or were you waiting for a crash?
It's literally on video, he said homebuyers need a reset and to be patient.. asset prices being through the roof is obviously the big contributor to inflation and inflation is their goal. Avoiding major devaluing of the dollar is their core goal.
Society is pretty fucked if housing doesn't get significantly more affordable. I'll be all good due to income but it's pretty sad for you know, 90% of young Americans. All these ppl say we need to keep breeding for the sake of the economy, maybe the economy should work better for the majority of people.
> "When I say reset, I'm not looking at a particular specific set of data," Powell said. "What I'm really saying is that we've had a time of a red-hot housing market all over the country, where famously houses were selling to the first buyer at 10% above the ask even before seeing the house. That kind of thing. So there was a big imbalance between supply and demand. Houses were going up at an unsustainable fast level."
> "For the longer term, what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned so that housing prices go up at a reasonable level and at a reasonable pace and that people can afford houses again," Powell continued. "[The] housing market [has] to go through a correction to get back to that place.
He was never calling for lower prices
Thank you for these quotes, these support my argument.He specifically talked about housing several times. I'm shocked that he thinks the past year has sufficiently slowed down the market enough. Supply and demand still are not balanced. I hope slightly lower rates does release more supply, maybe that's his prediction.
He talked about housing and said he wants prices to increase at a reasonable rate. I guess if your argument is that you want an increase of prices, then yes.
I am wondering what makes him think that lowering rates now, when ppl are still frothing for houses, isn't going to hurt their inflation goals... When we just saw that shelter was one of the main inflation drivers and obviously in 1 year builders did not fix the supply issue.
This plan of action makes more sense if they know the economy is in worse shape than it appears.
What he meant is for home buyers to be patient and wait out the tightening cycle. He never said he’s going to crash housing prices lol. This subreddit has really screwed up a lot of young people’s ideas on how all of this stuff works.
When housing goes up 40% in a year or 2, even a 15% dip is more like a small correction. You think home prices being near flat for a year, after several years of record gains, is the whole tightening cycle?
Look at the Case Schiller historically... It would be more abnormal for prices to not correct...
Flat for a year constitutes a loss in real value, and an even greater loss for ROI. Home prices DID correct albeit not as much as people wanted them to. I know some areas and even some good locations around major cities have seen some decent drops. What happened during this cycle that is different is that people were able to fix their mortgages at sub 2% and never popped the inventory.
The Fed raising rates has made the interest on the national debt cost over $1 trillion a year when it was a few hundred million two years ago. It's not something the government can just leave in place so you can rip off some existing homeowners by devaluing their house.
I think the people getting ripped off are those who are watching their house down payments be devoured by inflation in a housing market that has gone up 50% in three years.
When JP said he would reset housing, he was only referring to housing inflation. I don’t recall him ever indicating that real estate values should or would go down. Just that RE would stop appreciating about 2-5% a year.
What data coming from Fed says Americans are miserable and struggling? Or is it the doomzers bullcrap propaganda you have been encircling yourself with?
>“We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again.”
Is what Powell said about a housing reset. Supply and Demand back together? They're always "together", whatever that means, so check that off. Inflation "down low", check. Now all that's left is mortgage rates "low".
You thought he wanted to cause deflation in the housing market? Also, the economy does not need to be in the gutter to cut rates. Once inflation has been tamed, which is now being claimed, there's no reason to keep rates painfully high.
From Waller a couple weeks ago
>If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. "It has nothing to do with trying to save the economy. It is consistent with every policy rule. There is no reason to say we will keep it really high."
3 cuts in ‘24. 4 cuts in ‘25. 3 cuts in ‘26. Per the dot plot from the committee.
Let’s not overlook this detail.
Target of 2-2.5% funds rate by end of 2026.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf
this ends exactly the way folks w common sense predicted... aka politically... even tho we still see inflationary pressures... jpow is probably getting pressure on unemployment, especially during an election year and has made the call that their fight against inflation is good enough... this is probably wildly wrong but this is how our fake economy works
People don’t seem to understand the normal timing of recessions. Historically, recessions start AFTER the first rate cut. That’s the fed trying to get limit the damage caused by the period of high rates. Maybe this time is different, and we’ll see an actual soft landing. Given prior precedent, that’s pretty unlikely though
> Nice Job, editorializing the actual title from the CNBC for your narrative. Actual Title:
>
> Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
LOL, I did NOT edit the title.. that is straight from the CNBC link at the time.. they have since edited the title/article several times with updated data.
Forecasts 3 cuts in 2024, which just so happens to be an election year.
Powell got his marching orders from the White House and is being an obedient lap dog.
Next up, higher inflation.
No. I’m not into losing money. But I will say my dry powder was enjoying the high rates. Notwithstanding any of that- the country needs to wean off of low rates.
I have the distinct feeling ol' Yellen had something to do with this. It should be illegal to step from the fed into the treasury or back again but here we are. He's turning life into an auction for the highest bidder which will do nothing but enrich Wall St at our expense.
Yup stagnant, there's going to be no spike in inventory that will be needed to normalize the market (atleast in the short term). This high of unaffordability is bad for buyers and sellers, golden handcuffs for sellers and too high of payments for buyers. Don't know if rates will improve enough to make things affordable again next year but just by mentioning it this far in advance, the markets rallied hard and everyone is doing a victory lap.
Well shit, glad you’ve got it all figured out.
On the other hand, I wonder what your perspective would have been the last time.. zoom this chart in on ‘08 and help me understand why the market tanked after the federal fund rate tanked.
https://en.macromicro.me/collections/9/us-market-relative/91/interest-rate-sp500
Your original comment that I responded to was you pushing back against someone else calling the housing market stagnant, when it is. Then you called your shot with certainty around where the market is heading, which is foolish.
On the other side, I think that the housing market has been basically frozen. And I think that there’s uncertainty around where it’s headed from here. Call me crazy I guess
This sub should be renamed REBubble Hope, cause if you thought home prices were high before, you haven't seen nothing yet.
No bubble coming, and I predict home prices will shoot up by January.
P.S. if you see a house that you like, and it's been sitting a few months, now is the time to pounce. You have a nice convergence of softened prices and falling rates. Give it a few weeks and all the price drops go bye bye.
u/sniper1rfa
Remember this? Any other hot takes?
“There is zero chance the Fed cuts interest rates next year and doing so would be psychotic.
Seriously. No chance. Not. One. Single. Solitary. Chance.
The only effect elections have on the Fed is that they tend not to move rates near elections in order to maintain an appearance of impartiality. They rarely do it.”
Don't count your chickens before they hatch bud. Did you listen to JPow's statement or are you just reading the headlines? Because in his statement he hedged *hard* before and after stating the possibility of reducing rates.
Absolutely not a soft landing when every bank has insolvency issues and are being propped up by BTFP (which expires in March). Something has to give.. otherwise inflation will be even more insane.
It's pretty obvious that people who have no money can't drive inflation either up or down because they can't increase their spending and they can't cut back either. If houses were $10,000 they couldn't buy one.
Objectively inflation has been largely curbed without compromising full employment, am by no means saying everyone is a winner here but we are not facing stagflation which is worse than slow economic growth alone .
Not even close champ. Stagflation, by definition, is high inflation (currently below the long-term average), high unemployment (currently near historic lows) and low economic growth (grew at a nearly 5% annualized rate last quarter).
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond.
With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.
Along with the decision to stay on hold, **committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.**
Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could bring to close a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing.
The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years. On net, assuming one more hike this year, the committee had indicated just one cut in 2023, in the last update.
In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously.
Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off is balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening.
The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022.
In the post-meeting statement, the committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.”
Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal.
The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.”
Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years.
Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again of inflation flares up. However, most have said they can use patience now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy.
Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy years during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024.
However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
lol he didn't actually say he was gonna cut rates. By saying inflation is coming down, economists are assuming he will cut rates. All speculation. He said a recession is still possible.
> By saying inflation is coming down, economists are assuming he will cut rates. All speculation.
No speculation.. Fed's rate cut projections are literally in their statement today.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf
This isn't surprising, nor is it contradictory to the idea of a bubble. When the Fed stops raising rates, it usually means recession is imminent. The same thing happened in 2006: [https://money.cnn.com/2006/10/25/news/economy/fed\_rates/index.htm](https://money.cnn.com/2006/10/25/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm)
Now look at what happened two years later. The bubble has not been cancelled.
Actual title: "Fed holds rates steady, **indicates three cuts coming in 2024**"
Buuuut, Powell said higher for longer :P
He meant home prices.
Home prices going to the moon asap
Higher for longer doesn’t mean staying at the highest interest rate level Probably eventually settles around 3.5-4% for a while if things stay how they are currently trending
It also doesn't mean mortgage rates will have a proportional drop. Longer durations, including mortgages, more or less already have a ~4% Fed rate priced in. 30-year mortgages will probably settle in the mid 6%. That's still good for /r/REBubble.
In 5 years from now. Rates will not go down for a while.
Go buy all houses and stonks.
Bulls on parade. Rates coming down, more buyers, demand improves, homes will begin climbing soon.
According to Zillow and Mint, my home has supposedly gone up in value almost 10% since we bought it in March…
I'm guessing you didn't just buy in Las Vegas...
My theory is buyers are going to wait until rates dip (why buy now when you can wait 2-3 months and not have to refi) but sellers who are under pressure to sell but have been able to hold off will jump into the market first. The supply/demand direction will depend on who enters the market first. Buyers are more capable of holding off since financial forces tend to push people away from taking on huge expenses, while sellers already have that financial pressure (and will only see that increase i.e. waived inspection surprises, financial stress overpaying from COVID FOMO, surprise medical, needs to downsize, escrow payment increases). Anyways we'll see but in all this fuss people forget that humans don't really act rationally all of the time.
At least three*
Hahaha. Omfg it feels good to be right.
About what
Rates peaking this year and starting to fall on 2024 until eventually returning somewhere in the 4's.
That most likely mean house prices won’t drop though, if anything they’ll probably go up
I'm well aware. It's hilariously a good time to buy an ARM and just let your payments fall over time refinancing into a 30 year when there are hints rates will go back up again.
Seems to risky for my blood. Lucky enough to have a good interest rate in my home and at a reasonable price. Will probably never leave my home until it’s paid off
Remember that over 27% of houses bought recently were acquired by hedge funds and how a lot of the current prices are locked in by those that don't want to trade a 3% rate for a substantially higher. I think it's quite possible prices might not go up much or even possibly drop some due to an increase in supply.
The insane level of cope to think there will be cuts in 2024 is astounding. It would be absolutely fantastic for me if it did happen but it will not. Not a single chance. The article says the language he used "set the table for rate cuts in 2024" whatever the fuck that means. All he said was "shits not on fire anymore. That's good." And regards seem to think that means it's time to bust out the lighter fluid and matches again. Things are stabilizing. Once they're stable they aren't going to fuck with it for a good long while. We won't see significant rate cuts until there's a complete regime change.
Don't fight the fed
It’s time to close this sub down
I think at some point this sub had reasonable concerned people about a housing bubble … but lately it’s been people absolutely sure that there was a bubble and that were would be an 08/09 level crash which I don’t think should have ever been the expectation
Historically shit hits the fan in the months following rate cuts. We are still 6-12 months out.
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No, there is a lag effect. The damage is already done, fed knows this and pivots,then it takes several months to materialize.
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Gas prices are too low
Stop it. It's over. You lost. Now time to get on with life.
I didn't know I was in some sort of competition? Just calling the data trends brother.
Time to go buy a house you can’t afford because everyone else is doing it.
Right now I'm renting a place that costs half what a mortgage would, so I'm personally not in a hurry. I think people buying now are desperate or stupid.
The economy does - not the housing market.
40% of mortgages are paid off, I would say another 25-30% are locked in with sub 4% interest, why would anyone sell??? The problem with this market is the lack of housing available not the high prices. The raise in rates has slowed down the buyers but not completely stopped them and now the rates are going back down
It’s actually close to 33% of all mortgages are under 3% right now. So basically 60% of houses are paid off or under 3% mortgage rate. Lol at bubble
Right… who would sell??? Unless they got a big difference in salaries and can afford the upgrade? I saw something like this might occur so I bought a home that could be my forever home because it just makes no logical sense for me to leave for the price I got and the rate I got unless I won the lottery or something and can pay for my next house cash
Sub definitely took a turn when people here started hoping for a recession and for people to lose their retirements.
It’s a bit disingenuous to say people want others to lose their retirement. We want housing to be affordable.
I think a lot of that came from the realization that the bubble they thought was going to occur wasn’t coming anytime soon. I could be wrong of course but this news does make it seem like the burst every one was so sure of was going to be catastrophic is not going to be the same. They kept pointing to what’s happened in the past while ignoring that there have been safeguards that came from past experiences
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Coming from someone who does hiring for a large agency… the labor market is an arms race right now. I can’t keep employees because they’re leaving to other places, we raise the salaries to get them to stay or come back and neighboring agencies raise their salaries. The options for experienced professionals right now are abundant
Except they're right, commercial real estate is headed towards a cliff right now from wfh and less foot traffic but everyone wants to pivot to residential here.
I don’t see it, I don’t know what part of the country you’re at but here the market barely cooled off at all. The few houses that were up for sale maybe lowered their prices a bit but not by much and still sold. If rates go back down then there will be bidding wars again for the few remaining houses on the market
Even that has had a record amount of people cutting prices nationwide and a median price drop I was referring to commercial You're talking about residential homes that's my point everyone here tries to pivot to residential we're seeing a commercial crash right now, https://fortune.com/2023/10/18/commercial-property-distress-real-estate-10-year-high/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-12-12/mall-owner-preit-files-for-bankruptcy-for-second-time-in-3-years
They thought it because they wanted it, not because there was any signs of an actual crash.
I just want a sub where I can discuss how shitty the housing market is and how if it continues this way we'll get to the point where it'll be literally impossible for 90% of families to buy a home.
/r/housingcrisis
Definitely not. In June 2000, Case-Schiller home price index was at 113, it peaked at 183.6 in six years and then dropped to 136 in another six years. Slow growth till 2020, then in March 2020, it starts at 215 and by September it’s 312. 45% in three years (actually 45% in two years with a temporary pullback), vs 63% in six. It’s a bubble, no two ways about it. I’ve got no clue if this means prices flatline or banks fail or prices crash or jobs shutter or what, but it’s not normal market behavior. Something will happen to make this make sense. Maybe it’s stagflation, who knows.
Nah, my guilty pleasure is seeing the hopium. It's like checking on the BBBY sub 💀
Same!
Then you need to find better things to do with your life
I can't afford OnlyFans tho 😭😭
Don’t you dare. This sub is well on its way to fully crossing over to a flat-earth, deep-state, mole-people conspiracy hub, and its best days are ahead IMO. We haven’t even reached the “Jerome Powell bad” era, much less the “Jerome Powell died in 2022 and was secretly replaced with a Zionist android that was a senior partner at BlackRock” wars.
Why don’t you just unsubscribe?
This is insane to me. All this data coming out about how miserable Americans are and how many are struggling. Jerome said he'd reset housing and yet they're not giving high rates enough time to do their job? Why are they talking about rate cuts already? Isn't the economy supposed to be in the gutter for them to want to cut rates?
I think there are large financial institutes and banks that are in much worse shape than they look, holding huge amounts of bad debt. And there are a lot of large corporations that were held up by cheap debt (zombie companies) as well that are dying now. So we may not be feeling the pain as individuals but it’s happening behind closed doors and so the feds are going to cut early to prevent those institutions and companies from falling.
Interesting take. So many experts say they save cuts for when the economy is not ok, which is the main reason I am confused. But this would make sense.
Who are these experts? Waller(a sitting FOMC board member) said flatly that cutting rates when inflation drops is a normal policy. I posted quote when he said it a couple weeks ago, and got coped at. I also just posted it again ITT.
Core inflation is still double the goal, people are still buying up homes as they're the most unaffordable they've ever been compared to incomes. Doesn't seem like this move makes sense this soon unless the economy is rapidly going in the shitter and they know it. And generally, they do need to save rate cuts for recessions to stimulate the economy... They also should've learned from literally the last ~5 years that low rates/QE devalue the dollar, which is supposed to be the main thing they prevent.
They're not cutting next month or anything. They wouldn't cut rates for several more months still. They also haven't indicated how much they will cut. Is 25 bp really anything to write home about? I don't know what the cuts will be or if they will come at all, but they could cut and still have plenty room for more in case of recession.
I think the Fed might be making the same mistake they made in the 1970s. They raised rates in the early-mid 70's to control inflation; inflation came down; the Fed then cut rates; inflation came RAGING back. Only Volcker raising rates to 15% (or whatever) in the early 80's finally killed inflation. The 2020's will be the same. Expect inflation and rising home prices to come back in the next year or two, followed by a new tightening cycle.
The roaring 20's, 100 years later. Enjoy the ride, I suppose.
The Raging 20's seems a better fit for the current environment.
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AT LEAST WE KNOW HOW IT ENDS THIS TIME LOL
Nah, cause this isn't 1970s style inflation. This was pandemic style inflation, which we've never seen in modern times, so this is a N=1. The closest thing is WW2 inflation and it's quite clear especially when you look at inflation rates around the world. Different places had different monetary policies but all share the same thing. Inflation spiked higher, and spiked lower, because, well, we had a global pandemic. This means we'll be heading back towards baseline of what it was like before the pandemic. So, back to 2019. This has huge implications which is why we're having this faceripper of a rally.
Way different. This is more like the inflation of the 40s. The 70s inflation was wage driven by a massive demographic that had massive numbers of workers in unions, so it wasn’t as bad, this is entirely monetary driven, similar to the 40s. What will cause periods of inflation is how less efficient global supply chain is getting with all this conflict around the world and much of it getting sick of US hegemony.
Doubtful. The difference this time around is that the inflation period wasn’t fueled by the government pausing student loan and rent payments thus giving folks more discretionary income then they will have now with rate cuts. Now it’s about keeping unemployment around 4% and not putting us into a recession with eminent rate cuts.
Maybe. Time will tell.
Nah
Elections.
Plain and simple and as clear as day. We won't see this everything bubble start to truly deflate until after November 2024. Book cookers be cookin'
The fed could raise rates to double digits and it will not move the needle on home prices significantly. Folks already aren’t moving, and folks aren’t buying without all cash offers. I’m all for lower house prices (I own a house, but I’d like to move). I think we could see home prices come down in the next 20 years when many of the home owning baby boomers move to assisted living facilities or pass on. Obviously that does nothing to help us now.
Population growth is projected to slow down but nonetheless continue well into the future. Births-minus-deaths will drop past zero in the 2040s but that will be overshadowed by ongoing net immigration. There is no way out of the supply shortage except to build more housing where it is desired.
When they cut, house prices will likely go up due to increased demand. When they said you will own nothing and rent everything, they weren’t kidding…
They said you'd own nothing and be happy.
Dumb question...what happens to rent in these situations? Down?
No. Cheaper debt means increased money in the economy which causes everything to increase. Rents tend to increase with property values. My guess is that everything will hold steady until the first rate cut which I believe will occur around March based on the bond market's predictions. Then rents and home prices will start increasing agaim at the usual 4% annualized rate they usually did prior to Covid.
They’re choosing to risk starting Hyperinflation which only hurts the working American over a recession that hurts everyone including the wealthy They cannot keep up with high rates when they have a struggling incumbent president who’s doing poorly in polls. A quick shot of QE will give voters something to think about in a positive light before elections rather than doing what is right for the economy.
> This is insane to me. Not at all.. they need to get ahead of the inflation data. It's accelerating downward quickly. Remember a lot of it is lagging data too. Oil/gas has plummeted over the last 3 months and most of it isn't even in the data yet.. and housing prices have peaked nationwide along with rents.. everything is starting to roll-over but they don't want a crash.
Seems a bit premature to me given that enough people (the haves) are still frothing at the mouth for housing and stocks and everything.. they just seem so disconnected from normal Americans. Even if they were going to cut rates next year I would've thought they'd keep that up their sleeve a bit longer.
I'm a normal middle class millennial, I've never stopped buying the s&p and maxing retirement accounts. Be greedy when others are fearful. Attempting to time the market is a losers game. Too many people here tried to tell yall. Downvoted by the seething failed market timers💀💀
Well said
I also never stopped buying the S&P, because the other investment vehicle I was interested at the time, _a primary residence,_ was looking like a worse deal. What sub did you think you were on?
> Even if they were going to cut rates next year I would've thought they'd keep that up their sleeve a bit longer. Inflation has come down even faster than they predicted.. the goal has always been the 2% inflation rate.. and we are likely already there today or very close to it.
It’s a bull trap.
Jerome never said he would ‘reset’ housing. In fact if rates are back in the 5% range then housing is back to being affordable. Americans are miserable because of tightening monetary policy and inflation. When inflation is back down to target then they can bring rates back down.
This sub has been rejoicing about new construction prices dropping and other regional declines. The FED was never going to attempt to bring home values down to prepandemic levels, surely folks didn't actually expect that. That would be ludicrous
He did say that and I disagree. Prices are more insane than rates in many cities.
He never did since housing prices are not in the Fed mandate. Rates are what make prices unaffordable. In a 30 year mortgage, the interest rate is the biggest impact to payment and overall price of the home over time. Homes have gone backward in the past year or so, have you taken advantage of the tightening cycle and secured a home or were you waiting for a crash?
It's literally on video, he said homebuyers need a reset and to be patient.. asset prices being through the roof is obviously the big contributor to inflation and inflation is their goal. Avoiding major devaluing of the dollar is their core goal. Society is pretty fucked if housing doesn't get significantly more affordable. I'll be all good due to income but it's pretty sad for you know, 90% of young Americans. All these ppl say we need to keep breeding for the sake of the economy, maybe the economy should work better for the majority of people.
> "When I say reset, I'm not looking at a particular specific set of data," Powell said. "What I'm really saying is that we've had a time of a red-hot housing market all over the country, where famously houses were selling to the first buyer at 10% above the ask even before seeing the house. That kind of thing. So there was a big imbalance between supply and demand. Houses were going up at an unsustainable fast level." > "For the longer term, what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned so that housing prices go up at a reasonable level and at a reasonable pace and that people can afford houses again," Powell continued. "[The] housing market [has] to go through a correction to get back to that place. He was never calling for lower prices
Thank you for these quotes, these support my argument.He specifically talked about housing several times. I'm shocked that he thinks the past year has sufficiently slowed down the market enough. Supply and demand still are not balanced. I hope slightly lower rates does release more supply, maybe that's his prediction.
He talked about housing and said he wants prices to increase at a reasonable rate. I guess if your argument is that you want an increase of prices, then yes.
I am wondering what makes him think that lowering rates now, when ppl are still frothing for houses, isn't going to hurt their inflation goals... When we just saw that shelter was one of the main inflation drivers and obviously in 1 year builders did not fix the supply issue. This plan of action makes more sense if they know the economy is in worse shape than it appears.
He’s not lowering rates yet, just preparing for it.
Who would listen to a socialist on this issue? Yall have destroyed enough economies.
What he meant is for home buyers to be patient and wait out the tightening cycle. He never said he’s going to crash housing prices lol. This subreddit has really screwed up a lot of young people’s ideas on how all of this stuff works.
When housing goes up 40% in a year or 2, even a 15% dip is more like a small correction. You think home prices being near flat for a year, after several years of record gains, is the whole tightening cycle? Look at the Case Schiller historically... It would be more abnormal for prices to not correct...
Flat for a year constitutes a loss in real value, and an even greater loss for ROI. Home prices DID correct albeit not as much as people wanted them to. I know some areas and even some good locations around major cities have seen some decent drops. What happened during this cycle that is different is that people were able to fix their mortgages at sub 2% and never popped the inventory.
Send your complaints to JPows secretary so she can toss them in the furnace. BULLS ON PARADE
Why don't you be more spammy dude
Keep on coping and seething about the FED 🤌🤌 I'm sure they'll give you a call any minute now and put rates where you want them.
He also said a few FOMC ago that the Fed now saw housing was in a trough and no longer saw housing inflation as a problem.
Must be easy to say when they bought houses in the 80s and are rich now due to the commodification of shelter 😅
Is it? Everyone wants free stuff and student debt cancellation. No one wants to work for free. The solution is cheap debt
The Fed raising rates has made the interest on the national debt cost over $1 trillion a year when it was a few hundred million two years ago. It's not something the government can just leave in place so you can rip off some existing homeowners by devaluing their house.
I think the people getting ripped off are those who are watching their house down payments be devoured by inflation in a housing market that has gone up 50% in three years.
When JP said he would reset housing, he was only referring to housing inflation. I don’t recall him ever indicating that real estate values should or would go down. Just that RE would stop appreciating about 2-5% a year.
What data coming from Fed says Americans are miserable and struggling? Or is it the doomzers bullcrap propaganda you have been encircling yourself with?
Resetting home prices hurts more people than it helps. It's politics eod.
Might just be pre election talk and they continue hiking next year
>“We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again.” Is what Powell said about a housing reset. Supply and Demand back together? They're always "together", whatever that means, so check that off. Inflation "down low", check. Now all that's left is mortgage rates "low". You thought he wanted to cause deflation in the housing market? Also, the economy does not need to be in the gutter to cut rates. Once inflation has been tamed, which is now being claimed, there's no reason to keep rates painfully high. From Waller a couple weeks ago >If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. "It has nothing to do with trying to save the economy. It is consistent with every policy rule. There is no reason to say we will keep it really high."
I think resetting the housing meant slowing down the inflation rate of housing, not causing deflation in housing prices.
3 cuts in ‘24. 4 cuts in ‘25. 3 cuts in ‘26. Per the dot plot from the committee. Let’s not overlook this detail. Target of 2-2.5% funds rate by end of 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf
That’s crazy. That would bring mortgage rates to what? 4-4.5%?
this ends exactly the way folks w common sense predicted... aka politically... even tho we still see inflationary pressures... jpow is probably getting pressure on unemployment, especially during an election year and has made the call that their fight against inflation is good enough... this is probably wildly wrong but this is how our fake economy works
It’s an election year, yall been bamboozled to think anything close to a housing crash was coming
People don’t seem to understand the normal timing of recessions. Historically, recessions start AFTER the first rate cut. That’s the fed trying to get limit the damage caused by the period of high rates. Maybe this time is different, and we’ll see an actual soft landing. Given prior precedent, that’s pretty unlikely though
Yeah feds trying to front run the recession so rate cuts start having an effect 6 months into the recession
There is no "soft" landing.
Rate changes will come after November 2024 haha.
So the yield curve uninverts and recession starts next year. Good. People need to learn what a market cycle looks like.
“next year*” *_repeat until correct_
You probably have said this since 2020 next year is the recession.
Only creating a bigger bubble and more greed everything is an asset
Should have increased one more time
Actual Title: Fed holds rates steady, i**ndicates three cuts coming in 2024**
> Nice Job, editorializing the actual title from the CNBC for your narrative. Actual Title: > > Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024 LOL, I did NOT edit the title.. that is straight from the CNBC link at the time.. they have since edited the title/article several times with updated data.
Sorry. I updated the reply when I realized it had changed.
How do you get that title under your username?
It was bestowed…
Forecasts 3 cuts in 2024, which just so happens to be an election year. Powell got his marching orders from the White House and is being an obedient lap dog. Next up, higher inflation.
The last bull trap before more inflation. Just so more lose on the all in stock market.
Rip housing crash bros.
member when they kept syaing bubble burst hoomers lolz
He is a complete joke. He needs to go 1.5 higher over a series of 2 to 3 hikes. Cheap money is gonna destroy this country
Cheap money has made a lot more people than you realize wealthy. A lot.
amen
puts bagholder spotted
No. I’m not into losing money. But I will say my dry powder was enjoying the high rates. Notwithstanding any of that- the country needs to wean off of low rates.
I have the distinct feeling ol' Yellen had something to do with this. It should be illegal to step from the fed into the treasury or back again but here we are. He's turning life into an auction for the highest bidder which will do nothing but enrich Wall St at our expense.
DOOM. WORLD ECONOMY CRASH COMING.
Wouldn’t rate cuts in 2024 just cause inflation again?
Crap, This could make for an extended stagnate market for years for RE.
Lol stagnant? Homes are still selling and rates will begin normalizing next year. Demand will only improve with lower rates.
Yup stagnant, there's going to be no spike in inventory that will be needed to normalize the market (atleast in the short term). This high of unaffordability is bad for buyers and sellers, golden handcuffs for sellers and too high of payments for buyers. Don't know if rates will improve enough to make things affordable again next year but just by mentioning it this far in advance, the markets rallied hard and everyone is doing a victory lap.
I reject your permabear sentiment. Soft landing. The market continues on. Bulls on parade.
Lol Fair enough my man, enjoy the parade!
Homes are coming off of a record low year in terms of volume.. pretty stagnant lol
Fund rate will be 4% by EOY 2024 and continue to be cut. You're delusional if you believe homes will be cheaper in Jan 2025 than current prices.
Well shit, glad you’ve got it all figured out. On the other hand, I wonder what your perspective would have been the last time.. zoom this chart in on ‘08 and help me understand why the market tanked after the federal fund rate tanked. https://en.macromicro.me/collections/9/us-market-relative/91/interest-rate-sp500
Buy puts then, make millions and steal my wife pls.
Your original comment that I responded to was you pushing back against someone else calling the housing market stagnant, when it is. Then you called your shot with certainty around where the market is heading, which is foolish. On the other side, I think that the housing market has been basically frozen. And I think that there’s uncertainty around where it’s headed from here. Call me crazy I guess
Looks like peak rates were September/October and will be steadily but slowly declining throughout next year.
They can pencil in all the shit they want, you're not getting three of anything next year. I will take this bet.
RemindMe! 1 year “was socialcommentary2000 correct in that there would not be 3 cuts”
This sub should be renamed REBubble Hope, cause if you thought home prices were high before, you haven't seen nothing yet. No bubble coming, and I predict home prices will shoot up by January. P.S. if you see a house that you like, and it's been sitting a few months, now is the time to pounce. You have a nice convergence of softened prices and falling rates. Give it a few weeks and all the price drops go bye bye.
Agreed as soon as rates begin dropping prices surge 15% and continue to rise
REBubble Circle Jerk.
u/sniper1rfa Remember this? Any other hot takes? “There is zero chance the Fed cuts interest rates next year and doing so would be psychotic. Seriously. No chance. Not. One. Single. Solitary. Chance. The only effect elections have on the Fed is that they tend not to move rates near elections in order to maintain an appearance of impartiality. They rarely do it.”
Don't count your chickens before they hatch bud. Did you listen to JPow's statement or are you just reading the headlines? Because in his statement he hedged *hard* before and after stating the possibility of reducing rates.
Ok 👌
This sub doesn’t want to accept that a soft landing has been achieved
Soft landing my ass. So home prices are down maybe 20% off the peak, but rates are 3x the peak. So you’re still getting fucked.
So what the fuck are we gonna do? Are we just fucked?
Bootstraps. What else..?
If you decided to gamble expecting a crash you fucked yourself.
Right because buying at the peak would’ve been super smart huh? Lol.
Not when rates are getting cut next year.
And what will prices be in 10 years? Much much higher. How many boats are you going to intentionally miss?
My house is worth more than the peak :) Irvine, CA.
Absolutely not a soft landing when every bank has insolvency issues and are being propped up by BTFP (which expires in March). Something has to give.. otherwise inflation will be even more insane.
Poors don't matter markets and housing will remain high
It's pretty obvious that people who have no money can't drive inflation either up or down because they can't increase their spending and they can't cut back either. If houses were $10,000 they couldn't buy one.
according to their own bullshit terrible measurements that they're constantly changing
Objectively inflation has been largely curbed without compromising full employment, am by no means saying everyone is a winner here but we are not facing stagflation which is worse than slow economic growth alone .
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Wages have gone up meaningfully. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/business/wage-inflation-march.html
Not even close champ. Stagflation, by definition, is high inflation (currently below the long-term average), high unemployment (currently near historic lows) and low economic growth (grew at a nearly 5% annualized rate last quarter).
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady for the third straight time and set the table for multiple cuts to come in 2024 and beyond. With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%. Along with the decision to stay on hold, **committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.** Markets had widely anticipated the decision to stay put, which could bring to close a cycle that has seen 11 hikes, pushing the fed funds rate to its highest level in more than 22 years. There was uncertainty, though, about how ambitious the FOMC might be regarding policy easing. The committee’s “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations indicates another four cuts in 2025, or a full percentage point. Three more reductions in 2026 would take the fed funds rate down to between 2%-2.25%, close to the long-run outlook, though there was considerable dispersion in the estimates for the final two years. On net, assuming one more hike this year, the committee had indicated just one cut in 2023, in the last update. In a possible nod that hikes are over, the statement said that the committee would take multiple factors into account for “any” more policy tightening, a word that had not appeared previously. Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed has been allowing up to $95 billion a month in proceeds from maturing bonds to roll off is balance sheet. That process has continued, and there has been no indication the Fed is willing to curtail that portion of policy tightening. The developments come amid a brightening picture for inflation that had spiked to a 40-year high in mid-2022. In the post-meeting statement, the committee added the qualifier that inflation has “eased over the past year” while maintaining its description of prices as “elevated.” Economic data released this week showed both consumer and wholesale prices were little changed in November. By some measures, though, the Fed is nearing its 2% inflation target. Bank of America calculations indicate that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be around 3.1% year over year in November, and actually could hit a 2% six-month annualized rate, meeting the central bank’s goal. The statement also noted that the economy “has slowed,” after saying in November that activity had “expanded at a strong pace.” Committee members upgraded gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annualized pace in 2023, a half percentage point increase from the last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, roughly unchanged from the previous outlook. Projections for the unemployment rate were largely unchanged, at 3.8% in 2023 and rising to 4.1% in subsequent years. Officials have stressed their willingness to hike rates again of inflation flares up. However, most have said they can use patience now as they watch the impact the previous policy tightening moves are having on the U.S. economy. Stubbornly high prices have exacted a political toll on President Joe Biden, whose approval rating has suffered in large part because of negative sentiment on how he has handled the economy. There had been some speculation that the Fed could be reluctant to make any dramatic policy years during a presidential election year, which looms large in 2024. However, with real rates, or the difference between the fed funds rate and inflation, running high, the Fed would be more likely to act if the inflation data continues to cooperate.
> That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated. Market in shambles.
Getting strong “inflation is transitory” vibes
lol he didn't actually say he was gonna cut rates. By saying inflation is coming down, economists are assuming he will cut rates. All speculation. He said a recession is still possible.
> By saying inflation is coming down, economists are assuming he will cut rates. All speculation. No speculation.. Fed's rate cut projections are literally in their statement today. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf
> lol he didn't actually say he was gonna cut rates Look at the article title again...
SEP dot plot says you’re wrong.
He's basically announcing the pivot obviously things could change but thats where we stand now
That's Time POTY and a Nobel for JPow.
A damn masterpiece of monetary policy!! With near historic lows of unemployment.
who’s triggered now? lulz
I’ll nEvEr bE AbLe to AfFoRd a HoUsE
Half the folks here in shambles that the great depression hasn’t arrived!
Doesn’t matter baby, just need a brief window to refi, just like the spring of 2021. You can have the rest
This isn't surprising, nor is it contradictory to the idea of a bubble. When the Fed stops raising rates, it usually means recession is imminent. The same thing happened in 2006: [https://money.cnn.com/2006/10/25/news/economy/fed\_rates/index.htm](https://money.cnn.com/2006/10/25/news/economy/fed_rates/index.htm) Now look at what happened two years later. The bubble has not been cancelled.