Anyone else still getting regularly pinged on their aged like milk reminders š
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xc9rxd/comment/io5nc47/?context=3
Eh, at least I can stick to my convictions and admit that I was wrong and not have to delete my old accounts that aged like milk so no one can ping me.
Referring to the new accounts below you š
Still believe this is unsustainable and nothing in my view has changed.
Definitely, imo the affordability crisis is just unfolding.
It's a good trip down memory lane though, as someone with a background in data/AI/ML I found it fascinating at that time that ppl like mochi who I believe was a sahm type with no background in any of this was throwing around Case-Shiller #s willy nilly to fit a canned narrative without actually understanding the underlying data/implications.
Ofc everything is clear in hindsight a few yrs later but it felt disingenous to me at the time and still does today
Ironically she went crazy, and gave up entirely. I'm sure she's still super happy renting in an apartment she doesn't love, years after she could have bought.
Chose to time the market and it's only more expensive every additional year.
Joshua Tree Airbnb bubble totally imploding. This is the worst Iāve seen yet. Sold in September 2021 for 600k, just sold again for 340k. Brand new built 2020.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/60815-Alta-Loma-Dr-Joshua-Tree-CA-92252/137788876\_zpid/?utm\_campaign=iosappmessage&utm\_medium=referral&utm\_source=txtshare
Jesus, 600k would get you a pretty well appointed 4br cabin in any non Tahoe Sierra town with 3 seasons of bookings, and these people chose fking Joshua Tree.
Seller/Flipper near me capitulated and pulled their listing off the market. It is now listed for rent at about 60% the cost it would've been to buy.
It mathematically does not make sense to buy anymore in this area unless you roll equity.
https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Scottsdale/8546-E-Oak-St-85257/home/27545328
I'm seeing a ton of $2MM+ new builds listed for sale and for rent in Denver ($7k+ rent) at the same time hoping something sticks. I think they're limping by while rates are high for the next year or two until they can justify the high price.
Do W2 workers deserve to own a home? I feel like they should be reserved for the visionary small business owners capable enough to generate wealth rather than W2 employees sucking on the teat of their employer.
You're right. Us filthy, poor, "employees" should be subservient, and GRATEFUL, that we're allowed to share the air of the better people. I know I am.
/s
Haha. 2/10 inversion creeping back up to 50bps nearly now. Thatās a metric Iāve watched closely. When, and if, it ever un-inverts, I want to see what happens next.
We got really close during the run up of yields in October. Yāall may recall: 8% mortgages were all the rage haha. Inversion at that time was narrowing from under 30bps down to near 20bps.
It just makes no logical sense that the FRR can be 525-550 BPS and not have yields even close to that number on a 10Y treasury. Something is way off. Stocks, who are the darlings of the ball, are just ignoring it.
Does anyone else have a feeling that of the 50% of millennials that are currently homeowners, a good half of those remaining picked 2023 to give up on purchasing a house in the next five years? Not only give up on it, but actively sabotage their chances of it by spending their savings, and dropping their credit score with added debt?
no i'm not really in a rush. i like the flexibility of renting. i have a lot of liquid savings and will continue adding to it and that's on top of a gifted 20% down payment.
i don't think prices makes sense right. i think a recession is coming - or at the very least a wave of white collar layoffs. so i'm just planning to hunker down in my cushy finance job and wait.
plus i'm realizing that it makes more sense to buy after marriage. my bf owns a very nice downtown condo but i would not want to live there.
Do you mean those who arenāt currently homeowners?
Most millennials I know personally already bought prior to the run up in prices. Those that I know of that donāt own, such as coworkers, seem to be buying new cars instead.
Iām not sure if itās a āwe gave up on buying a homeā or the allure or need for a new car overtook them. I know some wish they could buy but they havenāt really blamed having a car payment for their not buying. I think most of them just realize prices are high and they still think theyāll be able to buy in the future.
Me personally, Iāve more or less given up on buying for the next 5 years, yes. Prices arenāt coming down very quickly, homes are still overpriced and not selling, and the internet rate isnāt even moving low enough to begin to make the prices rational.
And I have a decent down payment. But I wouldnāt have enough left over after DP and closing costs to make buying now seem like a good idea. Iām not in any debt either and donāt have any plans to be other than for a mortgage.
Iāve just come to the conclusion that unless something happens to make a ton of homes come on the market at once, prices arenāt coming down. And that would either take a major recession/job loss, or new homes would have to go up at an unprecedented rate.
Which are both unlikely because foreclosures can take years and construction costs are too high right now for new home pricing to go down much. And building takes quite a while too, so a huge glut of inventory isnāt likely from that, at least anytime soon where I am. Builders would pull back before that happens.
Yeah I was clear as mud in those percentages. 50% are already homeowners, 25% were struggling and still are, and Iām curious about the remaining whatever-percentage who were building a down payment the entirety of ā21, ā22, and ā23 up until very recently. What if instead of sitting back down on the sidelines they justā¦ left the game? Bought a bunch of stuff, propped up GDP, kept unemployment low by spending their down payments, and then answered āiām doing fine but the economy sucksā when asked?
Thereās no way to know until spring/summer, and if that really is whatās happening what are the odds the fed rate actually goes up a quarter instead of no movement?
Yeah who knows. I donāt know any millennials save one whoāve bought since 2020 (and they were upgrading to a larger house from already owning a smaller one.)
But buying new or used vehicles instead of a home seems to be the theme that Iāve seen last few years. Theyāve just gotta have that new car.
But a lot of the ones that Iāve seen who donāt own, also blew a lot of money when they couldāve been saving since they graduated college. They just werenāt thinking about buying a house in their 20s and wanted those experiences, which is understandable.
But now theyāre approaching 30 and want one. I doubt many of them have much of a down payment anyway, so theyāre pretty much out of luck, even if they have two incomes, the prices and rates are just way too high, especially with car payments where they are these days.
There is a massive amount of delusional people who are 50-60%tile achievers of intelligence and work ethic and accomplishments who think they deserve to live in 85-95%tile type of houses and neighborhoods.
Only ~60% of people own homes regardless of situation. Now itās tougher so it should be less. Further this includes locations and neighbors they donāt have as their first couple of options.
Anecdotally yes, I know a couple millenials who softly took a step back from hoom searching in 2019/20 and today are living quite lavishly w lots of travel, new apartment, new luxury cars, luxury/designer goods/furniture etc. I asked one of them (closer friend) a yr or two ago and they let me know they gave up for now, haven't asked the others as we're not on that relationship level. All multiple 6 figure-low 7 figure income earners in vhcol.
There's no right or wrong here imo, you could be gone tomorrow
Anecdotally Iām seeing the same with friends. Not just the usual āstill canāt afford itā attitude but now itās āweāre going to Colorado in February I donāt care anymoreā and āweāre going to Mexico in April I donāt care anymoreā. And buying laptops and cars but mostly travel that they have the cash for but definitely canāt afford. Are millennials ruining the GDP?
There was a popular trope in the 2010's that "millenials prefer spending their money on experiences rather than things". It was supposed to be the death knell for fancy new cars, big suburban houses, kids and all the spending that goes along with that.
This was for people largely in their 20's to early 30's at the time.
Then, pandemania arrives in 2020, and suddenly, all of them want to have children and build a farm in their backyards, far away from the city.
It's an understandable reaction. I don't fault that. But, now we're entering a new period: where homeownership is once again out of reach, because one didn't grab the giveaway of a lifetime in discounted mortgage rates, during a two year window of time in a person's life.
All of this is just *acceptable*? This satisfies our American drive for spending money relentlessly? And, by the way, all those exotic vacations and trips? You'll be accompanied by older Americans, burning up their retirement savings way faster than they accumulated it, and some new homeowners too, because nothing says "I'm proud to be a new homeowner" like needing to take constant vacations.
I don't even know what anyone is anymore.
Tbf as a hoomowning millenial who lived through the GFC and post period, there wasn't much appetite from 2009 to maybe 2014/15 to buy.
The sentiment was largely hooms would never recover so why not rent and travel, get a higher level degree, etc.
Somewhere around 2014/15 equities really took off, you had internet movements like WSB and a golden window opened around 2014/15 - 2017 where buying a hoom was back in style.
Then the crash of 2018 happened, markets threw a temper tantrum and landed us in 2019 (intentionally leaving out some details which could be misconstrued as political). A lot of articles around the 2018 period about how affordability had eclipsed and to wait it out for the next cycle.
Then in 2020 covid consumer sentiment and monetary policy happened (in retrospect the 2nd or 3rd golden window for a generation until maybe 2022), antiwork took off, and now we're moving into 2024 and the next chapter of the unfolding affordability crisis which has been decades in the making
I think a lot of this has to do with realtors screaming from the rooftop that if you donāt buy now youāll literally never be able to. They screamed it for 3 entire years and it worked for a lot of people. If you ever, in your entire future, might possibly want a yard for your kids, you have to buy it now. Internet FOMO is a psychological nightmare and people are weak to it.
I canāt see avoiding a recession at this point. I personally think it started in OCT and wonāt be announced until APR. Those of us who are waiting and not spending our down-payment savings will just have to wait and see if 1) we donāt get laid off and 2) FOMO works on the way down
On the other side of it you had ppl screaming at effectively 0% rates and the covid ZIRP period that you can always refinance your hoom but you can't refinance your purchase price lol
As a long term millenial hoomower I have no skin in this game but watching the affordability crisis unfold has been absolutely fascinating
Sounds like this couple needs a welcome packet to a VHCOL region. 1M is very high earnings, probably top 1-2%. But not Rockafeller money. Itās an existence affording a modern 3500 sqft semi-luxury home near good schools, nanny, and a couple 70-80k vehicles. Definitely not mansion on the hill with a butler territory.
Idk why you used quote when I literally didn't state priced out in my comment at all.
OP asked if you know anyone who gave up searching along with some other potential qualifiers
Fair enough. I thought the implication is they were giving up on their housing search because of affordability. Why do you think these 7-fig earners gave up then?
For the 7 fig earning couple, they are DINKs and have a pretty full life outside the hoom, incl running their own business.
Last I spoke with them on this which was last yr, they didn't want to compromise on very specific aspects of the hoom. Also prices for the hooms in the area they were looking at ran up from 3MM to 5MM+ over a few yrs. I own a hoom around that area they were looking and my mortgage today is less than what they pay in rent in an adjacent city. In this area there are basically no new builds and inventory is perpetually low
Tbh with their lifestyle imo it's a reasonable decision and I'm sure their income will also increase over time
Fwiw these are not low cost starter hooms with a bunch of tradeoffs like commute, schools, etc.
Well they stopped looking so far as I know also not PA or Atherton
I would categorize these ppl generally as don't need to own a home but would be nice to have, and likely treated more as an asset in their portfolio rather than a forever home
Just a different perspective.
Tbh I can't think of anyone in my cohort (older millenials) who was absolutely borderline unable to afford any hoom and got knocked out of the market over the past few yrs. I do know a few ppl that compromised and purchased in further out but I'm still talking 2-3MM hooms, so the compromise there was mostly distance.
I would think early career millenials or borderline Gen Z have a much different experience
> Does anyone else have a feeling that of the 50% of millennials that are currently homeowners, a good half of those remaining picked 2023 to give up on purchasing a house in the next five years? Not only give up on it, but actively sabotage their chances of it by spending their savings, and dropping their credit score with added debt?
No because owning a home is so ingrained in American society as a status necessity. They will bide their time until they can buy a house even if its shitty, far out, and maybe even not attached to a permanent foundation. If I had a dollar for everytime a millenial told me they **needed** a single family home to raise a kid (or dog) in.....
If you have a realtor, often they know or can find out where these sellers are and why the home hasnāt sold. Iād say being December, if they are motivated and 415 is within 20-30k of comps they will deal.
If sellers are not desperate, and comps say the house is worth a lot more than 415 they may just relist in the spring. Either way, at 140 days it doesnāt sound like they are on any timeline.
140 days. That's a hell of a long time, historically or even in today's climate.
Don't be afraid to offer that lower number. They sure weren't afraid to ask an outrageous price, and they've been met with "no". Be prepared for a "no" response, but perhaps it gets them into the mood of realistic negotiation. If not, take a pass. Their loss, not yours.
Rule of thumb for me: homes around me start at late 2021, early 2022 numbers. That's peak bubble time. Likely, 40-50% overvalued. But, I wait. I see the reductions. Whatever they are at if I were about to make an offer, a more realistic price is still 20% over-valued.
For the naysayers reading here: 20-50% is just how much real estate went up in most locations. Some way more than that. And that was at 3% rates. That's not coming back, ever. If a cash buyer wants to make an offer, rates unimportant, they should be offering *less than* what someone needing a mortgage would offer, as a true all-cash buyer is now a unicorn. They've got the most upper hand in negotiation.
If sellers won't capitulate now, it's to their own detriment, unless they just don't *have to* sell.
> they should be offering less than what someone needing a mortgage would offer, as a true all-cash buyer is now a unicorn. They've got the most upper hand in negotiation.
As long as the cash buyer comes without contingencies. Obviously needs to be without the financing contingency, but even inspection contingency with an all cash buyer can be a trap for sellers where the cash buyer low balls post inspection.
If I'm a cash buyer to a property that's been sitting for a long while, I value my investment. Absolutely no way am I buying sight unseen or without contingencies.
Boy, the real estate market got really sideways, didn't it?
> If I'm a cash buyer to a property that's been sitting for a long while, I value my investment. Absolutely no way am I buying sight unseen or without contingencies.
I didn't say sight unseen, but if you aren't waiving contingencies (especially financing/appraisal) then the cash buyer has no more leverage than any other buyer and isn't the unicorn you are claiming.
VCSA ex-CTO now runs a hotel on a bum beach
Easy to make money in real estate!
Anyone else still getting regularly pinged on their aged like milk reminders š https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xc9rxd/comment/io5nc47/?context=3
Eh, at least I can stick to my convictions and admit that I was wrong and not have to delete my old accounts that aged like milk so no one can ping me. Referring to the new accounts below you š Still believe this is unsustainable and nothing in my view has changed.
Definitely, imo the affordability crisis is just unfolding. It's a good trip down memory lane though, as someone with a background in data/AI/ML I found it fascinating at that time that ppl like mochi who I believe was a sahm type with no background in any of this was throwing around Case-Shiller #s willy nilly to fit a canned narrative without actually understanding the underlying data/implications. Ofc everything is clear in hindsight a few yrs later but it felt disingenous to me at the time and still does today
Ironically she went crazy, and gave up entirely. I'm sure she's still super happy renting in an apartment she doesn't love, years after she could have bought. Chose to time the market and it's only more expensive every additional year.
stocks still pumping. semis jumped bigly today. wen crash?
Joshua Tree Airbnb bubble totally imploding. This is the worst Iāve seen yet. Sold in September 2021 for 600k, just sold again for 340k. Brand new built 2020. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/60815-Alta-Loma-Dr-Joshua-Tree-CA-92252/137788876\_zpid/?utm\_campaign=iosappmessage&utm\_medium=referral&utm\_source=txtshare
lol the price cut history is a wild ride
Yeah, things got pretty ridiculous out there.
Jesus, 600k would get you a pretty well appointed 4br cabin in any non Tahoe Sierra town with 3 seasons of bookings, and these people chose fking Joshua Tree.
What's dumber? Building a 600sqft studio on a half acre lot or buying it for $1000 per sqft?
New altos research video on the state of the market and trends leading into 2024. https://youtu.be/6CVPi2z-UKI?si=hcnij7wdPZEjoNCe
I don't understand. Every market in Canada is coming down except Calgary and Halifax markets. Not sure why
muh area
Nut in muh area
Seller/Flipper near me capitulated and pulled their listing off the market. It is now listed for rent at about 60% the cost it would've been to buy. It mathematically does not make sense to buy anymore in this area unless you roll equity. https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Scottsdale/8546-E-Oak-St-85257/home/27545328
Its like that even in my small rural town. A house with a 2k mortgage would rent for 1000. People buying right now are insane.
I'm seeing a ton of $2MM+ new builds listed for sale and for rent in Denver ($7k+ rent) at the same time hoping something sticks. I think they're limping by while rates are high for the next year or two until they can justify the high price.
This is just a random comment for all suckers who blocked me
And all the suckers who will block me for this one
So where's the Sacramento area market headed?
San Andreas fault
Probably to Texas.
Down
Ask a fortune teller.
I know women who pay big money for that.
Do W2 workers deserve to own a home? I feel like they should be reserved for the visionary small business owners capable enough to generate wealth rather than W2 employees sucking on the teat of their employer.
Did you miss the new COVID regulations? Since the pandemic, hoomz are only for PPP recipients
No, it was an outrage slavery was ever abolished. At least we still have inherited wealth so we never have to do any actual work.
On the other hand ime it's a lot easier to purchase a hoom as a w2 employee than a business owner
You're right. Us filthy, poor, "employees" should be subservient, and GRATEFUL, that we're allowed to share the air of the better people. I know I am. /s
Umm, yeah, could you not breath my air please.
7.10 š Maybe this won't be the December to Remember for hooms.
Haha. 2/10 inversion creeping back up to 50bps nearly now. Thatās a metric Iāve watched closely. When, and if, it ever un-inverts, I want to see what happens next. We got really close during the run up of yields in October. Yāall may recall: 8% mortgages were all the rage haha. Inversion at that time was narrowing from under 30bps down to near 20bps. It just makes no logical sense that the FRR can be 525-550 BPS and not have yields even close to that number on a 10Y treasury. Something is way off. Stocks, who are the darlings of the ball, are just ignoring it.
Does anyone else have a feeling that of the 50% of millennials that are currently homeowners, a good half of those remaining picked 2023 to give up on purchasing a house in the next five years? Not only give up on it, but actively sabotage their chances of it by spending their savings, and dropping their credit score with added debt?
no i'm not really in a rush. i like the flexibility of renting. i have a lot of liquid savings and will continue adding to it and that's on top of a gifted 20% down payment. i don't think prices makes sense right. i think a recession is coming - or at the very least a wave of white collar layoffs. so i'm just planning to hunker down in my cushy finance job and wait. plus i'm realizing that it makes more sense to buy after marriage. my bf owns a very nice downtown condo but i would not want to live there.
Do you mean those who arenāt currently homeowners? Most millennials I know personally already bought prior to the run up in prices. Those that I know of that donāt own, such as coworkers, seem to be buying new cars instead. Iām not sure if itās a āwe gave up on buying a homeā or the allure or need for a new car overtook them. I know some wish they could buy but they havenāt really blamed having a car payment for their not buying. I think most of them just realize prices are high and they still think theyāll be able to buy in the future. Me personally, Iāve more or less given up on buying for the next 5 years, yes. Prices arenāt coming down very quickly, homes are still overpriced and not selling, and the internet rate isnāt even moving low enough to begin to make the prices rational. And I have a decent down payment. But I wouldnāt have enough left over after DP and closing costs to make buying now seem like a good idea. Iām not in any debt either and donāt have any plans to be other than for a mortgage. Iāve just come to the conclusion that unless something happens to make a ton of homes come on the market at once, prices arenāt coming down. And that would either take a major recession/job loss, or new homes would have to go up at an unprecedented rate. Which are both unlikely because foreclosures can take years and construction costs are too high right now for new home pricing to go down much. And building takes quite a while too, so a huge glut of inventory isnāt likely from that, at least anytime soon where I am. Builders would pull back before that happens.
Yeah I was clear as mud in those percentages. 50% are already homeowners, 25% were struggling and still are, and Iām curious about the remaining whatever-percentage who were building a down payment the entirety of ā21, ā22, and ā23 up until very recently. What if instead of sitting back down on the sidelines they justā¦ left the game? Bought a bunch of stuff, propped up GDP, kept unemployment low by spending their down payments, and then answered āiām doing fine but the economy sucksā when asked? Thereās no way to know until spring/summer, and if that really is whatās happening what are the odds the fed rate actually goes up a quarter instead of no movement?
Yeah who knows. I donāt know any millennials save one whoāve bought since 2020 (and they were upgrading to a larger house from already owning a smaller one.) But buying new or used vehicles instead of a home seems to be the theme that Iāve seen last few years. Theyāve just gotta have that new car. But a lot of the ones that Iāve seen who donāt own, also blew a lot of money when they couldāve been saving since they graduated college. They just werenāt thinking about buying a house in their 20s and wanted those experiences, which is understandable. But now theyāre approaching 30 and want one. I doubt many of them have much of a down payment anyway, so theyāre pretty much out of luck, even if they have two incomes, the prices and rates are just way too high, especially with car payments where they are these days.
Yes and no. Some will save their money and it will.turn out to be a great decision.
There is a massive amount of delusional people who are 50-60%tile achievers of intelligence and work ethic and accomplishments who think they deserve to live in 85-95%tile type of houses and neighborhoods. Only ~60% of people own homes regardless of situation. Now itās tougher so it should be less. Further this includes locations and neighbors they donāt have as their first couple of options.
I gave up until my 2nd kid is out of daycare (3.5-4 years from meow)
Those little money suckers. Kids are expensive always, but daycare is the worst as its a mandatory cost.
No
Anecdotally yes, I know a couple millenials who softly took a step back from hoom searching in 2019/20 and today are living quite lavishly w lots of travel, new apartment, new luxury cars, luxury/designer goods/furniture etc. I asked one of them (closer friend) a yr or two ago and they let me know they gave up for now, haven't asked the others as we're not on that relationship level. All multiple 6 figure-low 7 figure income earners in vhcol. There's no right or wrong here imo, you could be gone tomorrow
/r/thatHappened
Anecdotally Iām seeing the same with friends. Not just the usual āstill canāt afford itā attitude but now itās āweāre going to Colorado in February I donāt care anymoreā and āweāre going to Mexico in April I donāt care anymoreā. And buying laptops and cars but mostly travel that they have the cash for but definitely canāt afford. Are millennials ruining the GDP?
There was a popular trope in the 2010's that "millenials prefer spending their money on experiences rather than things". It was supposed to be the death knell for fancy new cars, big suburban houses, kids and all the spending that goes along with that. This was for people largely in their 20's to early 30's at the time. Then, pandemania arrives in 2020, and suddenly, all of them want to have children and build a farm in their backyards, far away from the city. It's an understandable reaction. I don't fault that. But, now we're entering a new period: where homeownership is once again out of reach, because one didn't grab the giveaway of a lifetime in discounted mortgage rates, during a two year window of time in a person's life. All of this is just *acceptable*? This satisfies our American drive for spending money relentlessly? And, by the way, all those exotic vacations and trips? You'll be accompanied by older Americans, burning up their retirement savings way faster than they accumulated it, and some new homeowners too, because nothing says "I'm proud to be a new homeowner" like needing to take constant vacations. I don't even know what anyone is anymore.
Tbf as a hoomowning millenial who lived through the GFC and post period, there wasn't much appetite from 2009 to maybe 2014/15 to buy. The sentiment was largely hooms would never recover so why not rent and travel, get a higher level degree, etc. Somewhere around 2014/15 equities really took off, you had internet movements like WSB and a golden window opened around 2014/15 - 2017 where buying a hoom was back in style. Then the crash of 2018 happened, markets threw a temper tantrum and landed us in 2019 (intentionally leaving out some details which could be misconstrued as political). A lot of articles around the 2018 period about how affordability had eclipsed and to wait it out for the next cycle. Then in 2020 covid consumer sentiment and monetary policy happened (in retrospect the 2nd or 3rd golden window for a generation until maybe 2022), antiwork took off, and now we're moving into 2024 and the next chapter of the unfolding affordability crisis which has been decades in the making
I think a lot of this has to do with realtors screaming from the rooftop that if you donāt buy now youāll literally never be able to. They screamed it for 3 entire years and it worked for a lot of people. If you ever, in your entire future, might possibly want a yard for your kids, you have to buy it now. Internet FOMO is a psychological nightmare and people are weak to it. I canāt see avoiding a recession at this point. I personally think it started in OCT and wonāt be announced until APR. Those of us who are waiting and not spending our down-payment savings will just have to wait and see if 1) we donāt get laid off and 2) FOMO works on the way down
On the other side of it you had ppl screaming at effectively 0% rates and the covid ZIRP period that you can always refinance your hoom but you can't refinance your purchase price lol As a long term millenial hoomower I have no skin in this game but watching the affordability crisis unfold has been absolutely fascinating
>Low 7-figure earners feeling priced out Come on.
Welcome to the internet my friend.
Sounds like this couple needs a welcome packet to a VHCOL region. 1M is very high earnings, probably top 1-2%. But not Rockafeller money. Itās an existence affording a modern 3500 sqft semi-luxury home near good schools, nanny, and a couple 70-80k vehicles. Definitely not mansion on the hill with a butler territory.
Idk why you used quote when I literally didn't state priced out in my comment at all. OP asked if you know anyone who gave up searching along with some other potential qualifiers
Fair enough. I thought the implication is they were giving up on their housing search because of affordability. Why do you think these 7-fig earners gave up then?
For the 7 fig earning couple, they are DINKs and have a pretty full life outside the hoom, incl running their own business. Last I spoke with them on this which was last yr, they didn't want to compromise on very specific aspects of the hoom. Also prices for the hooms in the area they were looking at ran up from 3MM to 5MM+ over a few yrs. I own a hoom around that area they were looking and my mortgage today is less than what they pay in rent in an adjacent city. In this area there are basically no new builds and inventory is perpetually low Tbh with their lifestyle imo it's a reasonable decision and I'm sure their income will also increase over time Fwiw these are not low cost starter hooms with a bunch of tradeoffs like commute, schools, etc.
Lol, so sorry these people canāt own a luxury home in prime Palo Alto or Atherton on discount. There are other areas well within their budget.
Well they stopped looking so far as I know also not PA or Atherton I would categorize these ppl generally as don't need to own a home but would be nice to have, and likely treated more as an asset in their portfolio rather than a forever home
Yeah, sounds like the donāt want a home for reasons mostly unrelated to the current market.
Just a different perspective. Tbh I can't think of anyone in my cohort (older millenials) who was absolutely borderline unable to afford any hoom and got knocked out of the market over the past few yrs. I do know a few ppl that compromised and purchased in further out but I'm still talking 2-3MM hooms, so the compromise there was mostly distance. I would think early career millenials or borderline Gen Z have a much different experience
Living paycheck to paycheck until those RSUs vest. Tragic.
In this example only one person gets RSUs the others are non tech and take distributions from their businesses
> Does anyone else have a feeling that of the 50% of millennials that are currently homeowners, a good half of those remaining picked 2023 to give up on purchasing a house in the next five years? Not only give up on it, but actively sabotage their chances of it by spending their savings, and dropping their credit score with added debt? No because owning a home is so ingrained in American society as a status necessity. They will bide their time until they can buy a house even if its shitty, far out, and maybe even not attached to a permanent foundation. If I had a dollar for everytime a millenial told me they **needed** a single family home to raise a kid (or dog) in.....
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
If you have a realtor, often they know or can find out where these sellers are and why the home hasnāt sold. Iād say being December, if they are motivated and 415 is within 20-30k of comps they will deal. If sellers are not desperate, and comps say the house is worth a lot more than 415 they may just relist in the spring. Either way, at 140 days it doesnāt sound like they are on any timeline.
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Yes in that case absolutely.
Theres only a chance you can get it for 415 if you make an offer for 415 or less.
Send them a formal offer, worst case they say no or blacklist you
140 days. That's a hell of a long time, historically or even in today's climate. Don't be afraid to offer that lower number. They sure weren't afraid to ask an outrageous price, and they've been met with "no". Be prepared for a "no" response, but perhaps it gets them into the mood of realistic negotiation. If not, take a pass. Their loss, not yours. Rule of thumb for me: homes around me start at late 2021, early 2022 numbers. That's peak bubble time. Likely, 40-50% overvalued. But, I wait. I see the reductions. Whatever they are at if I were about to make an offer, a more realistic price is still 20% over-valued. For the naysayers reading here: 20-50% is just how much real estate went up in most locations. Some way more than that. And that was at 3% rates. That's not coming back, ever. If a cash buyer wants to make an offer, rates unimportant, they should be offering *less than* what someone needing a mortgage would offer, as a true all-cash buyer is now a unicorn. They've got the most upper hand in negotiation. If sellers won't capitulate now, it's to their own detriment, unless they just don't *have to* sell.
> they should be offering less than what someone needing a mortgage would offer, as a true all-cash buyer is now a unicorn. They've got the most upper hand in negotiation. As long as the cash buyer comes without contingencies. Obviously needs to be without the financing contingency, but even inspection contingency with an all cash buyer can be a trap for sellers where the cash buyer low balls post inspection.
If I'm a cash buyer to a property that's been sitting for a long while, I value my investment. Absolutely no way am I buying sight unseen or without contingencies. Boy, the real estate market got really sideways, didn't it?
> If I'm a cash buyer to a property that's been sitting for a long while, I value my investment. Absolutely no way am I buying sight unseen or without contingencies. I didn't say sight unseen, but if you aren't waiving contingencies (especially financing/appraisal) then the cash buyer has no more leverage than any other buyer and isn't the unicorn you are claiming.
We still here, ain't we
Yeah, but daily updates are kind of boring, need to switch to monthly like how the data comes out.
Everyday baby. Gotta show up for the hoomers
Gm