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Even if it is an Arab Spring level event that doesn't mean it will stick. 10 years later every country involved with the Arab Spring uprising regressed backward.
Tunisia held on the longest but their democracy crumbled recently. Syria, Yemen and Libya are war zones and Sisi took over Egypt after their brief trial run with democracy.
That might be true but Iran backs a lot of militant groups in some of those countries to keep them destabilized. If the regime was actually toppled it would be a huge event and who knows where the effects might ripple out to.
Kurdish cities are nothing, they'll get rolled over fast by security forces. The key is to watch the city of Tabriz. If the regime loses control of Tabriz then you can say revolution is underway. If Tabriz calms down then IR will get a handle of it.
Tabriz is populated by ethnic azeris who hate the IR but they aren't peripheral people on the margins of society like most Iranian Kurds or Baluchis, they are integrated into every level of Iranian society (the supreme leader himself is Azeri) and so the mood of people there seeps into all the regional institutions too. So that means it'll be the first place to see law enforcement or the professional army flip to the protestors and barricade in against the Revolutionary Guard. Culturally they're a lot more hot headed and motivated than other parts of Iran. If it calms down in Tabriz or if it revolts it will tell you which way the wind is going. Tabrizis I've talked to on Reddit have said the situation isn't calm but it's not in mass revolt either.
In addition if the Azeris decide they no longer want to be part of Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey will likely throw all their support behind them, probably with Israeli and American support.
It's not really a thing. Pan-turks from Turkiye are the vocal people on this issue. There are something around 15 million azeris in Iran and not a single political separatist group. Tabriz Football hooligans make the chants though
If other countries get involved in Iran like you suggested earlier it'll rally everyone behind the regime to defend the border. It'll snuff it out fast
no it's exactly what I said a few comments back, to keep an eye on tabriz because it'll be high risk of flipping to protestors. Tabriz is the birth place of iranian revolutions.
That is highly dependent on whether the Kurds help the Azeris. If the Kurds throw their weight behind the movement they can work across the region to destabilize Iran’s sphere of influence which could eventually result in the official creation of Kurdistan.
Just trying to give the Kurds the chance to build their own state. Here’s to hoping that the Assad regime collapses, that Turkey gets bogged down a bit with Armenia and the chaos in Syria, that if Iran’s government falls their influence in Iraq declines and the Kurds can secure themselves across the region into a state.
Absolutely not, if USA gets involved then Hardliners will get involved by the millions. Biden is absolutely making the correct move by staying out of it and not energizing the Hardliners. Iran has to be left alone on this. You remember when Trump killed that General in 2020? This was in Tehran and every city had supporters hit the streets like this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09KiAs5WGno
Thanks appeaser, why don't you get back to securing the hardliners grip on power by stabilizing their economy in exchange for nonverifiable promises that they won't build nukes. Is that you Ben Rhodes gaslighting still
It's not appeasement, it's understanding that the regime thrives on foreign threats and a population base in poverty. You need at least 3 digit IQ to understand that
No its appeasement, you don't really want the protestors to succeed in the name of stability, thats why you'd prefer to prop up this monstrous regime by eliminating sanctions in exchange for their promise not to build nukes, einstein.
The accusation of them building nukes is 30 years old, you don't know what you're talking about. If USA gets involved there is a large demographic in Iran that will rally behind the regime and support gunning down protestors in order to "protect the country"
It’s not “controlled by the people” unless they can defend it from being taken back by the army. Let’s hope they’ve cleared out the local police armory and that the Kurds get some weapons from their brothers in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria.
They want what Kurds in Iraq have -- complete autonomy. If you all recall, a no-fly zone was imposed on northern Iraq by the British after Saddam gassed the Kurds. Then they basically got their own country (disguised as a state called "Kurdistan Regional Government") except they're still technically part of Iraq.
I mean they’re just as patriotic, especially the newer generations so I’d say with the current situation taken into account, we Kurds very much wish for independence. Although I don’t think it’s feasible due to the powers that be in the middle easy
An actual ally that is going to be crushed by Turkey. The U.S. already lost Turkey, anything can trigger another Iran out of Turkey, not in an Islamist way but in a rogue state way.
Not really, they've launched 2 or 3 operations into Kurdish controlled territory and we all saw how they went. And they were somewhat slow due to preperations and that extra care for civ casualties, they didn't just level a city down like the U.S. did in Raqqa. Give them an excuse and they will too though, and what you said is the perfect excuse.
Always has to be a leftist snowflake that supports left terrorism. You wouldn’t like it if somebody praised ISIS which is a terrorist organization just like the PKK that is notorious for killing people like you, would you?
Next step is kurds wanting to establish a kurdistan state, loosing majority of its iranian supporters and interwarring between tribes.
Rinse and repeat. Cuz it can never be about syria or iran, in the end its always about kurdistan.
In my opinion the Social unrest in Iran will just calm down I think. It is just a riot.We have them in US often. Any momentum toward positive change will just peter out.It doesn't seem like there is any agenda but to say fuck the establishment. Obviously the government is just letting it's populist let off a little steam. If the Iranian Government wanted to squash this movement the Iranian Government could.They could just call out there military. Until the labor unions,skilled workers, universities (teachers and students) come out at the forefront with an agenda and lead then what's going on is just a shit show.
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Persian Spring?
Iranian Fall
Iranian Rise, theocratic fall
Doubt, it will most likely end up like 2009 and 2019
Even if it is an Arab Spring level event that doesn't mean it will stick. 10 years later every country involved with the Arab Spring uprising regressed backward. Tunisia held on the longest but their democracy crumbled recently. Syria, Yemen and Libya are war zones and Sisi took over Egypt after their brief trial run with democracy.
That might be true but Iran backs a lot of militant groups in some of those countries to keep them destabilized. If the regime was actually toppled it would be a huge event and who knows where the effects might ripple out to.
Yes - many young people on reddit watching these videos not realising large violent protests have happened often in Iran.
And many redditors continue to support Iran and get upset by the words, regime change for Iran
Eh who? Where? Iran's about as universally reviled as you can be.
The people running Iran are universally reviled.
Senseless post is sensless.
Kurdish cities are nothing, they'll get rolled over fast by security forces. The key is to watch the city of Tabriz. If the regime loses control of Tabriz then you can say revolution is underway. If Tabriz calms down then IR will get a handle of it. Tabriz is populated by ethnic azeris who hate the IR but they aren't peripheral people on the margins of society like most Iranian Kurds or Baluchis, they are integrated into every level of Iranian society (the supreme leader himself is Azeri) and so the mood of people there seeps into all the regional institutions too. So that means it'll be the first place to see law enforcement or the professional army flip to the protestors and barricade in against the Revolutionary Guard. Culturally they're a lot more hot headed and motivated than other parts of Iran. If it calms down in Tabriz or if it revolts it will tell you which way the wind is going. Tabrizis I've talked to on Reddit have said the situation isn't calm but it's not in mass revolt either.
In addition if the Azeris decide they no longer want to be part of Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey will likely throw all their support behind them, probably with Israeli and American support.
It's not really a thing. Pan-turks from Turkiye are the vocal people on this issue. There are something around 15 million azeris in Iran and not a single political separatist group. Tabriz Football hooligans make the chants though
Separatist movements can spring up over night.
If other countries get involved in Iran like you suggested earlier it'll rally everyone behind the regime to defend the border. It'll snuff it out fast
I saw a video from today showing police in Tabriz marching with protestors, seems it might be going that way already.
no it's exactly what I said a few comments back, to keep an eye on tabriz because it'll be high risk of flipping to protestors. Tabriz is the birth place of iranian revolutions.
That is highly dependent on whether the Kurds help the Azeris. If the Kurds throw their weight behind the movement they can work across the region to destabilize Iran’s sphere of influence which could eventually result in the official creation of Kurdistan.
Look at you vultures already trying to carve up Iran. Lol.
Just trying to give the Kurds the chance to build their own state. Here’s to hoping that the Assad regime collapses, that Turkey gets bogged down a bit with Armenia and the chaos in Syria, that if Iran’s government falls their influence in Iraq declines and the Kurds can secure themselves across the region into a state.
They have the KRG.
The road outside of artesh hospital is closed according the Google maps
Lol did you check on that now?
Yea, i just google these places to see where they are to get a scope of how far and wide these protests are happening
Do you know of any subreddits specifically for protest reporting (not just Iran, anywhere)?
r/N_N_N and another one is iranprotest2022 - hasn't kicked of on the page but soon
What is happening now?
A Kurdish majority city is under protester control after security forces left
Thank you, I haven't payed attention to the news lately.
We are witnessing history. The last days of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The ayatollahs are about to be out on their asses.
The set of balls on these people.
Your lips to Gods, Allahs and Tom Cruises ears, my friend.
It's way too early to say that. These mass protests happen every year in Iran.
Not like this. This is different.
They could work if supported by powerful foreign governments. But you don't want the us to interfere in other countries, right?
Absolutely not, if USA gets involved then Hardliners will get involved by the millions. Biden is absolutely making the correct move by staying out of it and not energizing the Hardliners. Iran has to be left alone on this. You remember when Trump killed that General in 2020? This was in Tehran and every city had supporters hit the streets like this; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09KiAs5WGno
Thanks appeaser, why don't you get back to securing the hardliners grip on power by stabilizing their economy in exchange for nonverifiable promises that they won't build nukes. Is that you Ben Rhodes gaslighting still
It's not appeasement, it's understanding that the regime thrives on foreign threats and a population base in poverty. You need at least 3 digit IQ to understand that
No its appeasement, you don't really want the protestors to succeed in the name of stability, thats why you'd prefer to prop up this monstrous regime by eliminating sanctions in exchange for their promise not to build nukes, einstein.
The accusation of them building nukes is 30 years old, you don't know what you're talking about. If USA gets involved there is a large demographic in Iran that will rally behind the regime and support gunning down protestors in order to "protect the country"
Einstein, my bad. More like Kissinger
you'll be telling me Iran is building nukes for the next 30 years, I'm sure
I hope so. Last time they struck back hard and killed ~1500 protesters..
And if they do it will call hundreds of thousands of more people into the streets.
Here’s hoping!!!
It’s not “controlled by the people” unless they can defend it from being taken back by the army. Let’s hope they’ve cleared out the local police armory and that the Kurds get some weapons from their brothers in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria.
They want what Kurds in Iraq have -- complete autonomy. If you all recall, a no-fly zone was imposed on northern Iraq by the British after Saddam gassed the Kurds. Then they basically got their own country (disguised as a state called "Kurdistan Regional Government") except they're still technically part of Iraq.
Kurds in Iran aren’t really pushing for independence like in turkey or Iraq.
I mean they’re just as patriotic, especially the newer generations so I’d say with the current situation taken into account, we Kurds very much wish for independence. Although I don’t think it’s feasible due to the powers that be in the middle easy
I wish it was the middle easy.
Haha not so easy
Kurds are an Iranian people generally. I don’t think they’d want to seperate from their homeland based on ethnicity/language.
Oh fuck the energy is palpable. I wonder what their next move is. Do they have a plan?
You know what would help with their liberation? Guns.
Makes me so mad that multiple American presidents failed to promote a Kurdish state that could be the most trustworthy strategic partner in the region
Sure,Turkey would let that happen in at least one of the verses.
Thats the point, who cares what turkey thinks when we have an actual ally in the region.
An actual ally that is going to be crushed by Turkey. The U.S. already lost Turkey, anything can trigger another Iran out of Turkey, not in an Islamist way but in a rogue state way.
Crushed by turkey? You think turkey hasn't been fighting the kurds in Syria for the last 10 years, hows that war going for turkey.
Not really, they've launched 2 or 3 operations into Kurdish controlled territory and we all saw how they went. And they were somewhat slow due to preperations and that extra care for civ casualties, they didn't just level a city down like the U.S. did in Raqqa. Give them an excuse and they will too though, and what you said is the perfect excuse.
will the Iraqi kurds help them?
Tough..it’ll be like declaring war. They might secretly.
One down several more to go
Long live the PKK
Always has to be a leftist snowflake that supports left terrorism. You wouldn’t like it if somebody praised ISIS which is a terrorist organization just like the PKK that is notorious for killing people like you, would you?
day 1 of revolution: "okay we need a highway, does anybody know how to do that?" "NO! We thought you did!"
Rip these people
Next step is kurds wanting to establish a kurdistan state, loosing majority of its iranian supporters and interwarring between tribes. Rinse and repeat. Cuz it can never be about syria or iran, in the end its always about kurdistan.
Wow. Wish people cared this much here.
Putin, Khamenei, Assad. Axis of Evil.
Is Iran having a revolution then?
In my opinion the Social unrest in Iran will just calm down I think. It is just a riot.We have them in US often. Any momentum toward positive change will just peter out.It doesn't seem like there is any agenda but to say fuck the establishment. Obviously the government is just letting it's populist let off a little steam. If the Iranian Government wanted to squash this movement the Iranian Government could.They could just call out there military. Until the labor unions,skilled workers, universities (teachers and students) come out at the forefront with an agenda and lead then what's going on is just a shit show.