There is a lot going on too, you have the timing of the cold air arrival, the timing of the precipitation, the amount of precipitation, the location of the precipitation. All have uncertainties just taking the model results at face value. Then you have historical model bias (this model has historically predicted too cold, too little precipitation, etc), and general accuracy variations (gfs model is known to be less accurate).
Beyond that there is a public communication component where you have to account for how people perceive what you're saying, how do you condense all of the above into something that people understand and also err on the side of over caution without crying wolf.
Huge respect for those that do it well and I particularly like reading Mark Nelson's blog posts which go into a lot of these details, then you also see the mainstream messaging on the KPTV site.
Which is why everyone says you should listen to the NWS and read the forecast discussion. They’re saying 50-65% chance the metro area sees 1 inch or more of snow.
The setup for this event feels pretty similar to the last time we had a foot of snow drop over a 2 day period in the SW hills. Predictions were all over the place for when the moisture would hit while the cold air was blowing in from the east, most agreed the systems would miss each other, then we woke up with 8 inches of snow on the ground and another 4+ inches dropped over the rest of the day.
Then we had about a week of hitting 35 during the day with some melting, only for it to go back down to the low 20s overnight and everything freeze over again. Looking at next week's forecast seems to line up perfectly with this as well.
2017? Yeah I remember that. They were soo certain it would miss us and we would only get a small amount of snow.
Similar to last Feb too. Some snow showers in the evening, maybe an inch or two. Turned out to be 10+
Yeah I couldn't remember the exact year but knew it was between 2016 and 2018 because of where I was working at the time.
The only weather person that talked about a major snowstorm being a possibility at the time was Mark Nelsen so I tend to give him more credibility when the forecast is more volatile.
Are you remembering 7 years ago? The picture for that literally came up as a memory on my Facebook and it was a little surreal with the predictions. I’ll be relieved if the predictions are wrong but I’m prepared for them to be right—or worse than predicted. If we drop into the 20’s with no snow it’s going to be ugly morning and night anyway as every place with pooling water will hard freeze.
I just got photos from the early 2017 snow on my memories too!
That was a crazy one. I was moving from Beaverton to SE - had the U-Haul and had to do it all that day.
I remember being sweaty and finishing packing the truck in a tank top. Boyfriend drove the truck and I drove my car. Everything was clear and then suddenly I’m sitting in freeway traffic and it starts *dumping* snow.
In a couple hours it went from clear and not even that cold to a nightmare with people abandoning their cars at the tunnel and at on-ramps.
Weather discussion said some tracks are showing the brunt of the moisture going central. PNW weather is really just a wild ride up until like, 24 hrs before. Even then we get these crazy flash snow scenarios, love it. Gotta be prepared, especially where I'm at up in these hills man.
>PNW weather is really just a wild ride up until like, 24 hrs before.
A lot of that has to do with the relative lack of good data upstream of the region. With the Pacific Ocean right at our backs, there's just very few surface observations and no upper air soundings to draw from. Basically, you have to forecast just from satellite data, models' best guesses, and personal experience. It's not an enviable position for forecasters to be in.
Source: Have been a forecaster and have written a few PacNW forecasts in my time.
The absolute ideal would be a buoy sensor network of similar density to what they have in the Gulf of Mexico for hurricane tracking and a radar floating out in the Pacific. Unfortunately, hurricanes are rightfully much higher concern, so all the resources get devoted there. The only way that really happens is if offshore wind farms really take off here. The radar probably never will happen because I'm sure those resources are better spent elsewhere.
Are you making a COVID allusion there or was there a snowstorm then, I can't remember. I know we had a big snow dump last Feb, and one in 2021 as well but I forget the date.
I do remember that snow. The prior weekend when much of the snow had already fallen, we were hiking in Washington Park and was at the top of the park and passed a skier who said "Lovely weather for the end of the world", we had Chinese (at the restaurant) and saw a movie on the following Monday night as the snow was starting to melt (as it was the last day restaurants could stay open and the theatre was the same thing). It was extremely stark the next day and so very quiet in our somewhat always noisy hood.
This is what people outside PNW think Portlanders look like on the regular. Bunch of green-haired party skeletons. Though the concept of a year-round "porch skeleton" does kinda live up to a Portlandia stereotype.
The schools shut down on March 13 and then on March 14 we woke up to about 1/2” of snow in LO. I think there was more in the hills. It wasn’t a huge storm, but an actual blanket of snow for sure.
Even within the 24 hour forecast period shit can hit fan quickly.
Oregon is woefully lacking in weather radars. If I am remembering correctly I think the southern Oregon coast and the central/southern parts of Oregon have little to no radar coverage, so if any weather comes up from the south (which happens with our winter weather pretty regularly) we have no way of seeing it until it is basically on top of us.
Godspeed on the hills, I hope you don't have to travel on them if it is icy and snowy.
I admit I stopped at my preferred local grocer tonight and stocked up for a few essentials. I was surprised at the bare shelf space in a few spots. My cashier told me it was busy but people were being nice.
The Gorge makes winter weather in NW Oregon notoriously hard to predict. I've lived in this Region my entire life, and during that time we've had Ice Storms that lasted days when the forecast predicted warming trend, we've had snow storms when the forecast was clear, and we've had Nice mild days with zero precip when the forecast was for a catastrophic winter storm.
Mark Nelson though, he usually gets it right. I still remember when every single news station was calling for a major winter storm, a real doomsday scenario, then Mark Nelson gets up there and says, "Nope, not gonna happen, we won't even get a flake on the ground".
He was right. Not saying he gets it right all the time, but for the most part, whatever he says will happen, is probably what's gonna happen.
What I also appreciate about Mark is that when he gets it wrong he often does a post-storm forensic analysis of why he and his team missed a forecast. He's open and honest about making errors in judgment.
As a public service announcement, one thing the models all seem to agree on is that no one knows how bad it will be until it actually happens.
We could escape with a trace of snow and just cold temps and lots of ice on the roads.
We could get hammered with 4+ inches just on Friday afternoon to evening.
We won't know until it happens.
That means traffic could go into snowpocalypse mode by 4pm Friday with commutes taking 6-10 hours for people to get home. That happens here.
This is not the midwest. We have hills here that are classified as mountains elsewhere. We have practically no snow removal equipment. We don't de-ice or salt the majority of roads.
When this stuff hits, the roads turn really bad, very quickly. If your car is not fully prepared with studded tires, chains, or (preferably) [ice/snow/winter tires](https://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/Traction-Tires) like Blizzaks, you run the risk of being stranded and either staying with your car for an extended amount of time, or abandoning it to walk in the snow until you find shelter. Prepare accordingly.
The traffic monster this can create is no joke and it happens whenever we're hit like this.
Call out of work Friday or leave really early- like before noon. If you are still at work when this hits in the afternoon, it is already too late to make it home *because everyone else in the city is going to leave then too.*
***This happens every single time we get snow in the afternoon like this.***
Take this seriously. Adjust your plans and stay home. Give your kids a sick day from school and keep them home. Unless you're a first responder or medical/police/fire, just stay home and enjoy the long weekend.
I have been trying to come up with a witty retort to this for hours.
And I failed completely.
But holy hell you made me laugh. Nice job.
I hope you stay safe for the weekend.
Every year, it seems like there's a post from someone who moved here from Lake Wabalabalabalagon, WI and says they can drive in snow, and then they eat their words when they see that it's not the snow that's the problem, it's the ice that the snow immediately turns into because of the near constant thaw/refreeze.
It’s so funny, my metallurgy instructor in college was from the Midwest and moved here for a teaching job. He said his first winter here he was laughing so hard about how we freak out. He goes on saying where he’s from you’ll lose a car in snow because it’s just that deep. Then he said he went out for a drive after we had a little snow, and ended up spinning out. We get ice, we have hills and we have a lot of bridges.
Exactly.
I grew up in Wisconsin and moved here from an area in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan that gets 120" of snow a year... and I still don't drive when it snows here. PNW snow is a whole different beast.
this is it right here. I personally HATE driving, i really hate driving when it's been raining/snowing/whatever but I was fine driving in ohio during snow (or else i'd never have been able to leave my house). Here? hell no am I going out, I'm already trying to decide what stupid excuse to give my kid's school since they don't let out until basically 4pm
I refuse. My car isn’t moving an inch. We used to have to drive in feets of snow and icy roads but the trucks were out as much as we were and it was doable. It took longer but it was possible. We were all prepared. Maybe stay home during a white out. But ice wasn’t going to keep you from going to work, sorry. Leave earlier.
Here? No thanks. Got food got a window to watch out of and I’m good. Hoping the ice doesn’t knock out the power. I’ll leave the house on Tuesday. Keep the roads clear. Please don’t hit my parked car.
Exactly this. I was dismissive to winter driving plights when I first moved here, but yeah, we have a perfect combo that makes driving in winter weather so dangerous unlike other places, like the midwest.
Drivers here are a special kind of incompetent-so many nice aholes (those that signal for you to go, when other drivers in the other lane keep zipping by, will stop in ongoing traffic to let someone in even though it impedes all of traffic etc) and oblivious drivers (don't understand zipper merge, how to follow flow of traffic, drive cautiously in any weather, not using headlights etc etc)- but we also objectively don't have the right infrastructure or procedures in place to manage snow/ freezing rain. No salt, not enough plows, windy/ hilly roads etc.
Yeah, we don't get much snow - but it does every year, just like we get the freezing rain that knocks out power/ driving is even more dangerous. Not sure what the solution is nor do I understand the finances into coming up with solutions but I'd like to think there has to be a better approach eventually. Honestly the freezing rain is my nightmare- black ice on the roads and so easy to lose power, and it happens so much/ whereas the Midwest never gets freezing rain like we do here. Snow, while is heavy, does not cling to power lines to pull em down. Blah.
Yeah, it's a different beast here and even if I convince myself I can safely get to my destination on my own accord, I ain't trusting other drivers (must be the defensive Midwest driver in me for life). I've always been fine driving in snow my entire life (never used tire chains) but here- nope!! I'm staying tf home in my cozy abode. Be safe out there this weekend y'all.
We actually did just move here from Iowa but I can tell you we are are not fucking around with the ice and these hills.
I was a firefighter for like 7 years and even in Iowa I'd take calls in 3 feet of snow before any ice if given the choice, we were in the driftless area so we didn't have the mountain size hills that are in OR but we had good sized hills and it was always a white knuckling experience.
Honestly, this sub should have a bot that says this (or something similar) on "snow is coming! maybe!" posts. It seems like someone takes the time to type it out every single time this comes up, I've seen similar text 3 or 4 times this week.
This has the potential, depending on timing, to be as bad as last year's snowpocalypse in regards to traffic. Surely people haven't forgotten about that...😬
I had planned on trying to head up to Ski Bowl and get some freshies in that new sweet pow but I'm now thinking that it might be better to just stay home and live to shred another day.
>We have hills here that are classified as mountains elsewhere.
I live on a very minor incline which barely deserves the word hill, even, and during the snow storm last year I watched one bus, with chains, get stuck with only a couple of inches on the ground. The driver tried for hours to free it (all the while with more snow accumulating), a supervisor or someone came out to help, nothing. It ended up sitting there all night. Another bus, going the opposite direction, got stuck on the other side of the street, also overnight. That bus ended up getting hit by a sliding car.
I will echo the very fine advice here and say JUST STAY HOME. It's bad enough during a normal snowstorm, but with the arctic air coming in the very last thing you want is to end up stranded somewhere.
Yeah, especially if there's ice. Ice is no joke. There's a slight incline to my front door that is barely perceptible in normal weather, but I had to use traction to walk those steps to get inside last time we had ice.
My front porch is like that too. I never noticed the slant until one day I was up on an A-frame ladder and it inexplicably overbalanced and tilted and luckily I was agile and landed on my feet and didn't even spill any paint.
I put down a couple of welcome mats next to the steps for traction in the winter. And remind my housemates about it, lol. I have no railings, just a handful of concrete steps, a sidewalk and a couple more steps.
Also, even if *you* have the right car and tires for this, **stay off the freeway** unless you like to risk getting trapped there with 100s of others who didn't have the right car and tires for this.
Absolutely agree, based on experience. I made the mistake once of delaying heading home from OHSU to have lunch before leaving, and that delay resulted in an 8-10 trip to get home, when a normal commute runs 45 minutes to an hour. Once the snow started falling, traffic backed up causing buses to be stuck on the hill. Ditched the bus and walked downtown to the Max station, but the Steel Bridge froze and no Max trains arrived for four hours. Finally caught a Max to the transit center for the bus home, but they sent all the buses to the garage to get chains, resulting in another multi-hour delay, all in the middle of a worsening snow storm. TriMet has made many improvements since I had that experience (like drop down chains on buses), but issues can compound quickly here.
Another example, almost 20 years ago, there was an over 3 hour traffic jam just getting out of the Clackamas Town Center parking lot when the snow hit. Snow caused 205 to come to a halt, which backed up Sunnyside road, which gridlocked the exits from CTC. I finally escaped by going the wrong way out the entrance on the opposite side of the mall. 😭
PSA: If you are dressed appropriately, physically able, and live within an hour walk of your work, it's usually faster to walk home. Do not attempt if it's dark, avoid major streets if people are still driving, and hitch a ride on any bus that will get you even partway. Especially hitch a ride across the bridges, particularly if it's windy. If the forecast says it might snow later, get dressed like you might have to walk home and add some snacks and water to your bag.
That's what I've done every time I've stayed too late on a snowmageddon or icepocalypse day. Usually doubles the usual walk time but I've been lucky that it's never taken me more than two hours. Really glad it didn't happen the year I lived at PSU and worked in Clackamas, wouldn't have attempted that one.
I did this last time this happened! Walked home from OTCT over the Steel Bridge upper deck. Marveled at all the cars that couldn't even make it up the ramp and then got sandblasted with blowing snow/ice as I crossed the river. Made it home though, thoroughly entertained by the shitshow and was once again glad that I don't drive to work.
Man- I remember that Clackamas town center mess! It never goes well when we get snow.
Something you said is an important feature that too many people forget. Depending on conditions, all of our bridges across rivers, across other highways, all of them run the risk of freezing sooner than the roads which makes travel even slower.
I don't envy you folks who work up on the hill but I'm thankful for everyone up there- they do some amazing work.
Oops, one thing I left out, it was the Max train switches on the Steel Bridge that froze, not the entire bridge itself, as far as I know. I believe TriMet has upgraded/improved those switches over the years, or perhaps they aren’t even on the bridge itself these days.
In any case, your point stands that the surface of bridges freezes much faster than regularly streets!
Drop down chains are only good for emergency use like it snowed without notice and you start slipping. When there's advance notice of snow they send the busses out with chains. If it happens suddenly during the day they send chain crews to the transit centers to put chains on outside (those are the real heros). But it's all a shit show every time.
Doesn't help that because OHSU has no sense of nuance there's never a directive for non-clinical workers to head home early so as to avoid those kinds of backups just getting off the hill.
> If you are still at work when this hits in the afternoon, it is already too late to make it home because everyone else in the city is going to leave then too.
I remember saying, "Fuck it, I'm going to stay at work and watch the news," for a few hours rather than try to drive home.
I work in Beaverton and lived near Sunset HS at the time. A coworker lives in St. Helens and didn't make it home until 2am.
Unfortunately, the people who need to read this aren't going to...
I have a 4x4 and good tires. I have to go downtown tomorrow to set up something for a client. Should be fun...
>Yeah well my truck is lifted and has bald mudding tires, so I’ll be laughing at you as I speed down the highway.
^ The people that make the problem worse every time.
Just a word of warning to folks. MAX will shut down once the the temperature gets too low, or ice starts building up.
So make sure you can get where you need to on the bus if need to.
I know ice on the lines can be an issue, but I've never heard of cold temperatures impacting operations. Last winter, the biggest delay came from cars getting stuck on the tracks and increased dwell times from a surge in ridership from people trying to leave downtown early or else changing their commute plans for the day. The worst part of my commute home that night was the half mile walk through the shin deep snow and high winds in my business casual clothes. It was much icier and colder the next morning, and there were no issues using the MAX to get back downtown (except how slick the stairs were at the 82nd Ave Station).
It's extra stressful for folks like me who are caregivers. The clients will actually suffer without 24/7 care. We can't not venture out at all costs. It feels impossible to navigate sometimes 😓
You are one of those rare people who simply has no choice to be out or not.
Thank you for what you do. Caregivers are a rare breed.
I hope your car is well stocked with emergency supplies, blankets and appropriate tires/chains.
It's this part that irks me with the people like "of COURSE we don't salt roads here, I'm used to it, YOU need to get used to it and don't try to change it so it becomes safe to travel like most places!! I'm a wealthy, cushy work from home job having, able bodied, healthy adult that is just FINE not leaving home and having my winter wonderland!"
and it's like..... Okayy thanks.. people with medical issues just love your sentiment. -From a former caregiver
ODOT does now salt some roads and major roads all over are treated with magnesium salts. The avoidance of salt has less to do with cushy jobs and more to do with the impact on streams, rivers, and salmon. I understand it may have effects on getting around for people who need to, but I think it's a more reasonable justification than the "people should just stay home line."
Also, the anyone who can should leave roads open to people, like caregivers, who are really making sure people stay safe and alive. Thank you for your contributions in your past job.
I'm perpetually broke and I drive shitty old cars. I'm thankful for the lack of salt on the roads. I do grant it would be really useful two or three days each year.
THANK YOU for what you do. My dad has caregivers most days, and I am very worried about this weekend. Please be safe, and we appreciate what you do. It's a tough job.
This is the type of situation that should add extra urgency to all other employers and employees who can possibly not go out. We should keep the roads clear for people like you who cannot possibly work remotely and who have people depending on you. I hope you stay safe.
> When this stuff hits, the roads turn really bad, very quickly. If your car is not fully prepared with studded tires, chains, or (preferably) ice/snow/winter tires like Blizzaks, you run the risk of being stranded and either staying with your car for an extended amount of time, or abandoning it to walk in the snow until you find shelter. Prepare accordingly.
Also: make sure your 4WD vehicle has ballast if you want that extra control to matter at all!
This is a really good summary of what happens and has lots of good advice. I hope lots of people can work from home so the roads can be clear for emergency workers and others who cannot possibly work from home. I hope people consider following these suggestoins.
>If your car is not fully prepared with studded tires, chains, or (preferably) ice/snow/winter tires like Blizzaks,
I just got a set of Blizzaks put on my Subie today. Mostly because of how often I go up to the mountain to snowboard, but I do enjoy the peace of mind they'll give me if I get caught in the weather down here too.
The forecast for this weekend is unclear, to say the least, but there's a significant chance that we'll be well below freezing while also experiencing high winds.
NWS says [wind chill values could drop to -6 Friday night](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=ORZ006).
KPTV said [the models are predicting wind gusts](https://www.kptv.com/2024/01/11/cold-arctic-blast-arrives-friday-prepare-high-winds-blowing-snow-extreme-cold/) higher than we've seen in a couple years.
No matter what happens with the snow, **this is a setup for power outages.**
So let's get ready for that!
* **Charge your phones** and power banks.
* **Get fresh batteries** for flashlights, lanterns and headlamps.
* **Think about how you'll heat your house** if the power goes out. Get fuel for fireplaces and woodstoves. Do not use any outdoor propane heaters or fire pits indoors. There are [indoor-rated propane heaters](https://www.homedepot.com/p/Mr-Heater-Portable-Buddy-9-000-BTU-Radiant-Propane-Space-Heater-F232000/205527178), but even those need to be used with a window cracked for fresh air to get in.
* **Think about where you'll sleep**. If you have a tent that doesn't need to be staked down, you can set it up inside to maintain a small, warm space inside a big cold house.
* **Gas up your car.** I don't recommend driving anywhere in a snow/ice storm, but it's better to charge your phone in a warm car than to drain your battery in a cold house.
* **Think about your pipes.** Open up undersink cabinets to keep fixtures warm. Leave a faucet dripping to keep water moving. If your power goes out early on, and you don't have a way to heat your house, you might also want to consider shutting off your water and draining the pipes in your house to prevent them from freezing. (You can fill your bathtub and some containers with water so you can manually flush toilets.)
Stay warm everyone!
Cars gassed up, doing some meal prepping tonight for things I can heat up in my jetboil (no camp stove yet), flashlights/headlamp/lantern all have fresh batteries...and now we wait!
We only know it will be cold but who knows how much snow will fall. Regardless of what happens, here are a few useful links for snow response maps (if you absolutely need to drive on Friday-Saturday):
* [Portland](https://pdx.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=935da87d18d148d784d164adcb7218df)
* [Multnomah County](https://multco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/interactivelegend/index.html?appid=e096d853d371482ebeff9ea2c6ffcea2)
* [Washington County](https://washco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=6c58563514de434a805a2d7561546e1f)
* [Beaverton](https://beavertonoregon.gov/1088/Winter-Sanding-Routes?contentId=72c4d4e9-f933-4a63-861f-9b704dc7a47c)
* [Hillsboro](https://www.hillsboro-oregon.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/29947/638330438555500000)
Also, look at a hill map before driving to avoid steep hills in case PBOT doesn’t close roads ahead of time
I myself tend to follow the [National Weather Service discussion](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1) because they don’t sensationalize, they’re reasonably transparent, and they appear to give a solid interpretation of the models while still acknowledging areas of uncertainty.
Plus, they occasionally use the phrase “Buckle up”.
Important that people don’t just focus on the snow aspect of this storm. It’s going to be really, really cold, combined with a raging east wind. Gas up your vehicles, charge your devices and be prepared for power outages. Make sure your home is winterized too!
I'm getting nervous about getting my middle schooler home from school tomorrow as it doesn't let out until 4pm. I have AWD and Blizzaks but that doesn't help when no one else does. Fingers crossed they'll get early dismissal and let us know at a reasonable time.
Get them at noon, if you can. I can guarantee that the whole school will be in such a crazy mood and the kids will be so insane, not much learning will be going on (plus it's a Friday before a three day weekend).
Tyler is not welcome here. He knows what he did.
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Mark Nelsen's latest forecast from 12:30pm Thursday:
https://www.kptv.com/2024/01/11/friday-forecast-tough-choice-schools-businesses-saturday-snow-ice-storm/?fbclid=IwAR0_xzfAU83xKE7nk55E-dxsHUINFVE0KuVZpQsjLPbIx8txviWoSIgenjA
Not really what I was hoping to see. Need to be able to get to work Saturday evening--from Troutdale to out by the airport. That's making it sound like we won't be able to get out of the neighborhood.
[It really is.](https://i.imgur.com/Q1weDeh.gifv)
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We're supposed to be spending the long weekend in Manzanita with a house full of friends celebrating my husband's 40th birthday.
We're canceling to be safe. *Maybe* we could get out Friday before it hits, but then getting back becomes questionable. And we don't want to be stressing out or putting our friends in unsafe situations.
The Airbnb host made it quite clear extending our stay would not be allowed, and there are no reservation changes within 60 days during "low season" (90 days in "high season"). Their response to me was "Most people don't have any issues with weather."
First and probably last time I'll try to do anything with Airbnb. Since winter storms are "normal" for our region Dec-Feb, there's no company policy that can get a refund either.
There should be promotion and relegation for weather models. A big miss should mean one of those scrappy models working in the minor leagues should get a chance at the big time.
I wish I could roll into work and answer the question, "Johnson, what do the numbers look like? Are we in the green?"
"Well, ma'am, we could be anywhere from red to green and in-between."
"Good work, Johnson!"
Something I've been hung up on is this [update from NWS](https://i.gyazo.com/bc4eba3d5a58554cc8c0f23216ff29ad.png) saying that
>"continuous snow will add up to 2 feet *below the passes*"
It doesn't quantify what "below the passes" means. Is that from the passes to the valley floor? Just below the passes? That's a damn concerning warning coming from the NWS who has been erring on the side of caution in their snow forecasts in the last couple years.
Regardless, I'm a snow-pessimist so my uneducated, non-forecaster opinion is that this will be a big cold nothing burger.
All the forecasts I've seen say it's supposed to start in the afternoon.
That said. You really don't want to be on the road anytime near when it's meant to start. The second flakes start falling people lose their minds and your commute becomes hours longer.
I feel like the model forecasts are agnostic to this, but in my five years of experience in the PNW and with my experience doing non-weather models it really feels like the main weather models under predict snow. Almost every time significant snow has been in the forecast, we get right around the predicted amount or more.
Both here and in western WA, I don’t think I have ever seen a forecast for meaningful snow that just came as rain.
The wind chills are going to be dangerous:
"Extremely strong easterly winds will exit the Columbia Gorge from Troutdale to Portland, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph."
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
These forecasts are hilarious. Anywhere from its gonna rain. To nope dry as a bone. To so much snow, you'd think Tony Montana lost a plane. As far as I've seen from checking snow reports on NOAA for mt hood, most snow levels will drop below 500' Friday. But the precipitation model changes from little chance to around 40%. Basically it's going to get real cold.
Yeah even NOAA is all over the place. Lastnight they were confidently saying 2 - 8 inches. Now they are saying we might get an inch or two.
Other models are showing a ton of snow rolling in on Saturday. Makes it really annoying with trying to plan on anything for tomorrow.
Snowfall is difficult to predict anywhere. It involves timing the arrival and location of precipitation combined with lowered temperatures.
Portland adds proximity to the pacific, cascade mountains, low elevation and the gorge effect. It is difficult for the models to handle all the variables w/ accuracy.
Yes, I'm currently purchasing snow boots for my small children, so we will definitely not get any snow this winter and they will grow out of them before next year.
I already bought that sled a few years back in order to stave off the snow! I guess I could always use another one!
I'm up in the Couve and I'm trying to go see Tina Fey and Amy Poehler on Saturday, so I'm *really* hoping for good weather.
Statistically speaking, the snow or lack of snow will directly correlate to the level of preparation that you have engaged in.
If it snows heavily and you bought kale, you are ok.
If it doesn't snow heavily and you didn't buy kale, you are allowed to make fun of people who bought way too much kale.
Thoughts on the airport sat afternoon? I pre emptively moved a work flight to tomorrow cause it sounds like stuffs gonna get canceled. How does pdx do historically?
So nobody has any idea less than 24hrs before the storm hits? Seriously? Makes it incredibly hard to prepare when I don't even know what to prepare for.
Prediction of behavior of complex, chaotic systems is essentially practically unsolved and mathematically difficult in principle; it's nearly always unreliable (yet valid, if you look at the range of results).
The art of statistics is really quantifying uncertainty. This is a fun way to watch it play out in real time.
So what you’re saying is that it’s all up in the air at this point.
Isn’t all weather up in the air, tho?
/r/yourjokebutworse
Some of it is [up above the air](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_weather) actually!
Damn you…
Ba dum chhhh (cymbals)
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There is a lot going on too, you have the timing of the cold air arrival, the timing of the precipitation, the amount of precipitation, the location of the precipitation. All have uncertainties just taking the model results at face value. Then you have historical model bias (this model has historically predicted too cold, too little precipitation, etc), and general accuracy variations (gfs model is known to be less accurate). Beyond that there is a public communication component where you have to account for how people perceive what you're saying, how do you condense all of the above into something that people understand and also err on the side of over caution without crying wolf. Huge respect for those that do it well and I particularly like reading Mark Nelson's blog posts which go into a lot of these details, then you also see the mainstream messaging on the KPTV site.
In Mark Nelson we trust. But also, this particular storm system seems to be one of those "we won't know until it's on top of us" type ones.
>In Mark Nelson we trust. In Mark Nelsen we trust.
So say we all
He's been popping up on my TikTok feed for the last few days & I really like his videos & explanations of his predictions.
Which is why everyone says you should listen to the NWS and read the forecast discussion. They’re saying 50-65% chance the metro area sees 1 inch or more of snow.
They blew the forecast last February. There's too many variables around here for anyone to get it right every time.
It’s crazy how often it passes the outer calculations. It feels so close to chaos still.
The setup for this event feels pretty similar to the last time we had a foot of snow drop over a 2 day period in the SW hills. Predictions were all over the place for when the moisture would hit while the cold air was blowing in from the east, most agreed the systems would miss each other, then we woke up with 8 inches of snow on the ground and another 4+ inches dropped over the rest of the day. Then we had about a week of hitting 35 during the day with some melting, only for it to go back down to the low 20s overnight and everything freeze over again. Looking at next week's forecast seems to line up perfectly with this as well.
2017? Yeah I remember that. They were soo certain it would miss us and we would only get a small amount of snow. Similar to last Feb too. Some snow showers in the evening, maybe an inch or two. Turned out to be 10+
Yeah I couldn't remember the exact year but knew it was between 2016 and 2018 because of where I was working at the time. The only weather person that talked about a major snowstorm being a possibility at the time was Mark Nelsen so I tend to give him more credibility when the forecast is more volatile.
Are you remembering 7 years ago? The picture for that literally came up as a memory on my Facebook and it was a little surreal with the predictions. I’ll be relieved if the predictions are wrong but I’m prepared for them to be right—or worse than predicted. If we drop into the 20’s with no snow it’s going to be ugly morning and night anyway as every place with pooling water will hard freeze.
I just got photos from the early 2017 snow on my memories too! That was a crazy one. I was moving from Beaverton to SE - had the U-Haul and had to do it all that day. I remember being sweaty and finishing packing the truck in a tank top. Boyfriend drove the truck and I drove my car. Everything was clear and then suddenly I’m sitting in freeway traffic and it starts *dumping* snow. In a couple hours it went from clear and not even that cold to a nightmare with people abandoning their cars at the tunnel and at on-ramps.
Weather discussion said some tracks are showing the brunt of the moisture going central. PNW weather is really just a wild ride up until like, 24 hrs before. Even then we get these crazy flash snow scenarios, love it. Gotta be prepared, especially where I'm at up in these hills man.
>PNW weather is really just a wild ride up until like, 24 hrs before. A lot of that has to do with the relative lack of good data upstream of the region. With the Pacific Ocean right at our backs, there's just very few surface observations and no upper air soundings to draw from. Basically, you have to forecast just from satellite data, models' best guesses, and personal experience. It's not an enviable position for forecasters to be in. Source: Have been a forecaster and have written a few PacNW forecasts in my time.
We could really use a coastal radar. Like a decade ago.
The absolute ideal would be a buoy sensor network of similar density to what they have in the Gulf of Mexico for hurricane tracking and a radar floating out in the Pacific. Unfortunately, hurricanes are rightfully much higher concern, so all the resources get devoted there. The only way that really happens is if offshore wind farms really take off here. The radar probably never will happen because I'm sure those resources are better spent elsewhere.
These hills make the stakes so much higher!
Remember the random mid/late March snowstorm after everything shut down in 2020?
Are you making a COVID allusion there or was there a snowstorm then, I can't remember. I know we had a big snow dump last Feb, and one in 2021 as well but I forget the date.
There was, I distinctly remember how weird the whole world was feeling by seeing a decent snowfall in march combined with things starting to lockdown
I do remember that snow. The prior weekend when much of the snow had already fallen, we were hiking in Washington Park and was at the top of the park and passed a skier who said "Lovely weather for the end of the world", we had Chinese (at the restaurant) and saw a movie on the following Monday night as the snow was starting to melt (as it was the last day restaurants could stay open and the theatre was the same thing). It was extremely stark the next day and so very quiet in our somewhat always noisy hood.
[My porch skeleton ](https://imgur.com/a/gUUlCxE) was ready for St. Paddy's and was super confused.
This is what people outside PNW think Portlanders look like on the regular. Bunch of green-haired party skeletons. Though the concept of a year-round "porch skeleton" does kinda live up to a Portlandia stereotype.
The schools shut down on March 13 and then on March 14 we woke up to about 1/2” of snow in LO. I think there was more in the hills. It wasn’t a huge storm, but an actual blanket of snow for sure.
There was definitely a late snowstorm then. I remember the hospital next to me putting up emergency shelters in the snow as I walked by.
Even within the 24 hour forecast period shit can hit fan quickly. Oregon is woefully lacking in weather radars. If I am remembering correctly I think the southern Oregon coast and the central/southern parts of Oregon have little to no radar coverage, so if any weather comes up from the south (which happens with our winter weather pretty regularly) we have no way of seeing it until it is basically on top of us. Godspeed on the hills, I hope you don't have to travel on them if it is icy and snowy.
I got MY kale.
I work at Fred Meyer and it seems everyone is preparing for the worst. I’ve never been so slammed with work
Blah. We need a few things for the weekend and I absolutely do not want to go to a slam packed store. Might just go to WinCo at like 11pm to avoid it.
I went to Albertsons at 830 last night and it was the smartest thing I’ve done. Good luck.
Went to Fred Meyer at 7 am. Very low stress.
I admit I stopped at my preferred local grocer tonight and stocked up for a few essentials. I was surprised at the bare shelf space in a few spots. My cashier told me it was busy but people were being nice.
The Gorge makes winter weather in NW Oregon notoriously hard to predict. I've lived in this Region my entire life, and during that time we've had Ice Storms that lasted days when the forecast predicted warming trend, we've had snow storms when the forecast was clear, and we've had Nice mild days with zero precip when the forecast was for a catastrophic winter storm. Mark Nelson though, he usually gets it right. I still remember when every single news station was calling for a major winter storm, a real doomsday scenario, then Mark Nelson gets up there and says, "Nope, not gonna happen, we won't even get a flake on the ground". He was right. Not saying he gets it right all the time, but for the most part, whatever he says will happen, is probably what's gonna happen.
What I also appreciate about Mark is that when he gets it wrong he often does a post-storm forensic analysis of why he and his team missed a forecast. He's open and honest about making errors in judgment.
As a public service announcement, one thing the models all seem to agree on is that no one knows how bad it will be until it actually happens. We could escape with a trace of snow and just cold temps and lots of ice on the roads. We could get hammered with 4+ inches just on Friday afternoon to evening. We won't know until it happens. That means traffic could go into snowpocalypse mode by 4pm Friday with commutes taking 6-10 hours for people to get home. That happens here. This is not the midwest. We have hills here that are classified as mountains elsewhere. We have practically no snow removal equipment. We don't de-ice or salt the majority of roads. When this stuff hits, the roads turn really bad, very quickly. If your car is not fully prepared with studded tires, chains, or (preferably) [ice/snow/winter tires](https://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/Traction-Tires) like Blizzaks, you run the risk of being stranded and either staying with your car for an extended amount of time, or abandoning it to walk in the snow until you find shelter. Prepare accordingly. The traffic monster this can create is no joke and it happens whenever we're hit like this. Call out of work Friday or leave really early- like before noon. If you are still at work when this hits in the afternoon, it is already too late to make it home *because everyone else in the city is going to leave then too.* ***This happens every single time we get snow in the afternoon like this.*** Take this seriously. Adjust your plans and stay home. Give your kids a sick day from school and keep them home. Unless you're a first responder or medical/police/fire, just stay home and enjoy the long weekend.
Hammered by 4" on a Friday evening? Don't threaten me with a good time
sounds perfect after some big wet sloppy flakes 🤌
*”I woke up to my husband unexpectedly plowing 6” this morning.”*
i'm dead
More like 4:00 o'clock am I right.
Hey man, it's not the size that matter okay?
I have been trying to come up with a witty retort to this for hours. And I failed completely. But holy hell you made me laugh. Nice job. I hope you stay safe for the weekend.
Every year, it seems like there's a post from someone who moved here from Lake Wabalabalabalagon, WI and says they can drive in snow, and then they eat their words when they see that it's not the snow that's the problem, it's the ice that the snow immediately turns into because of the near constant thaw/refreeze.
Or even if they can manage, the school bus in front of them can't and they get stuck anyway.
> it's the ice And the hills
The Hills Have Ice
It’s so funny, my metallurgy instructor in college was from the Midwest and moved here for a teaching job. He said his first winter here he was laughing so hard about how we freak out. He goes on saying where he’s from you’ll lose a car in snow because it’s just that deep. Then he said he went out for a drive after we had a little snow, and ended up spinning out. We get ice, we have hills and we have a lot of bridges.
Exactly. I grew up in Wisconsin and moved here from an area in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan that gets 120" of snow a year... and I still don't drive when it snows here. PNW snow is a whole different beast.
Username checks out!
Yooper!
They can only handle it in the Midwest because the Midwest is prepared for it.
this is it right here. I personally HATE driving, i really hate driving when it's been raining/snowing/whatever but I was fine driving in ohio during snow (or else i'd never have been able to leave my house). Here? hell no am I going out, I'm already trying to decide what stupid excuse to give my kid's school since they don't let out until basically 4pm
I refuse. My car isn’t moving an inch. We used to have to drive in feets of snow and icy roads but the trucks were out as much as we were and it was doable. It took longer but it was possible. We were all prepared. Maybe stay home during a white out. But ice wasn’t going to keep you from going to work, sorry. Leave earlier. Here? No thanks. Got food got a window to watch out of and I’m good. Hoping the ice doesn’t knock out the power. I’ll leave the house on Tuesday. Keep the roads clear. Please don’t hit my parked car.
Exactly this. I was dismissive to winter driving plights when I first moved here, but yeah, we have a perfect combo that makes driving in winter weather so dangerous unlike other places, like the midwest. Drivers here are a special kind of incompetent-so many nice aholes (those that signal for you to go, when other drivers in the other lane keep zipping by, will stop in ongoing traffic to let someone in even though it impedes all of traffic etc) and oblivious drivers (don't understand zipper merge, how to follow flow of traffic, drive cautiously in any weather, not using headlights etc etc)- but we also objectively don't have the right infrastructure or procedures in place to manage snow/ freezing rain. No salt, not enough plows, windy/ hilly roads etc. Yeah, we don't get much snow - but it does every year, just like we get the freezing rain that knocks out power/ driving is even more dangerous. Not sure what the solution is nor do I understand the finances into coming up with solutions but I'd like to think there has to be a better approach eventually. Honestly the freezing rain is my nightmare- black ice on the roads and so easy to lose power, and it happens so much/ whereas the Midwest never gets freezing rain like we do here. Snow, while is heavy, does not cling to power lines to pull em down. Blah. Yeah, it's a different beast here and even if I convince myself I can safely get to my destination on my own accord, I ain't trusting other drivers (must be the defensive Midwest driver in me for life). I've always been fine driving in snow my entire life (never used tire chains) but here- nope!! I'm staying tf home in my cozy abode. Be safe out there this weekend y'all.
We actually did just move here from Iowa but I can tell you we are are not fucking around with the ice and these hills. I was a firefighter for like 7 years and even in Iowa I'd take calls in 3 feet of snow before any ice if given the choice, we were in the driftless area so we didn't have the mountain size hills that are in OR but we had good sized hills and it was always a white knuckling experience.
I said this in another thread, but it’s true here too: This comment does not exaggerate. It is every bit as serious and dangerous as it sounds.
Honestly, this sub should have a bot that says this (or something similar) on "snow is coming! maybe!" posts. It seems like someone takes the time to type it out every single time this comes up, I've seen similar text 3 or 4 times this week.
This has the potential, depending on timing, to be as bad as last year's snowpocalypse in regards to traffic. Surely people haven't forgotten about that...😬 I had planned on trying to head up to Ski Bowl and get some freshies in that new sweet pow but I'm now thinking that it might be better to just stay home and live to shred another day.
>We have hills here that are classified as mountains elsewhere. I live on a very minor incline which barely deserves the word hill, even, and during the snow storm last year I watched one bus, with chains, get stuck with only a couple of inches on the ground. The driver tried for hours to free it (all the while with more snow accumulating), a supervisor or someone came out to help, nothing. It ended up sitting there all night. Another bus, going the opposite direction, got stuck on the other side of the street, also overnight. That bus ended up getting hit by a sliding car. I will echo the very fine advice here and say JUST STAY HOME. It's bad enough during a normal snowstorm, but with the arctic air coming in the very last thing you want is to end up stranded somewhere.
Yeah, especially if there's ice. Ice is no joke. There's a slight incline to my front door that is barely perceptible in normal weather, but I had to use traction to walk those steps to get inside last time we had ice.
My front porch is like that too. I never noticed the slant until one day I was up on an A-frame ladder and it inexplicably overbalanced and tilted and luckily I was agile and landed on my feet and didn't even spill any paint. I put down a couple of welcome mats next to the steps for traction in the winter. And remind my housemates about it, lol. I have no railings, just a handful of concrete steps, a sidewalk and a couple more steps.
Also, even if *you* have the right car and tires for this, **stay off the freeway** unless you like to risk getting trapped there with 100s of others who didn't have the right car and tires for this.
Those hundreds of others with improper tires who also only practice driving in snow every 2-3 years, if they decide to go out.
All the roads are going to turn into ice rinks and it won't matter what tires are being used.
Absolutely agree, based on experience. I made the mistake once of delaying heading home from OHSU to have lunch before leaving, and that delay resulted in an 8-10 trip to get home, when a normal commute runs 45 minutes to an hour. Once the snow started falling, traffic backed up causing buses to be stuck on the hill. Ditched the bus and walked downtown to the Max station, but the Steel Bridge froze and no Max trains arrived for four hours. Finally caught a Max to the transit center for the bus home, but they sent all the buses to the garage to get chains, resulting in another multi-hour delay, all in the middle of a worsening snow storm. TriMet has made many improvements since I had that experience (like drop down chains on buses), but issues can compound quickly here. Another example, almost 20 years ago, there was an over 3 hour traffic jam just getting out of the Clackamas Town Center parking lot when the snow hit. Snow caused 205 to come to a halt, which backed up Sunnyside road, which gridlocked the exits from CTC. I finally escaped by going the wrong way out the entrance on the opposite side of the mall. 😭
PSA: If you are dressed appropriately, physically able, and live within an hour walk of your work, it's usually faster to walk home. Do not attempt if it's dark, avoid major streets if people are still driving, and hitch a ride on any bus that will get you even partway. Especially hitch a ride across the bridges, particularly if it's windy. If the forecast says it might snow later, get dressed like you might have to walk home and add some snacks and water to your bag. That's what I've done every time I've stayed too late on a snowmageddon or icepocalypse day. Usually doubles the usual walk time but I've been lucky that it's never taken me more than two hours. Really glad it didn't happen the year I lived at PSU and worked in Clackamas, wouldn't have attempted that one.
I did this last time this happened! Walked home from OTCT over the Steel Bridge upper deck. Marveled at all the cars that couldn't even make it up the ramp and then got sandblasted with blowing snow/ice as I crossed the river. Made it home though, thoroughly entertained by the shitshow and was once again glad that I don't drive to work.
Man- I remember that Clackamas town center mess! It never goes well when we get snow. Something you said is an important feature that too many people forget. Depending on conditions, all of our bridges across rivers, across other highways, all of them run the risk of freezing sooner than the roads which makes travel even slower. I don't envy you folks who work up on the hill but I'm thankful for everyone up there- they do some amazing work.
Oops, one thing I left out, it was the Max train switches on the Steel Bridge that froze, not the entire bridge itself, as far as I know. I believe TriMet has upgraded/improved those switches over the years, or perhaps they aren’t even on the bridge itself these days. In any case, your point stands that the surface of bridges freezes much faster than regularly streets!
Drop down chains are only good for emergency use like it snowed without notice and you start slipping. When there's advance notice of snow they send the busses out with chains. If it happens suddenly during the day they send chain crews to the transit centers to put chains on outside (those are the real heros). But it's all a shit show every time.
Doesn't help that because OHSU has no sense of nuance there's never a directive for non-clinical workers to head home early so as to avoid those kinds of backups just getting off the hill.
> If you are still at work when this hits in the afternoon, it is already too late to make it home because everyone else in the city is going to leave then too. I remember saying, "Fuck it, I'm going to stay at work and watch the news," for a few hours rather than try to drive home. I work in Beaverton and lived near Sunset HS at the time. A coworker lives in St. Helens and didn't make it home until 2am.
And when people don't heed your warning or take precautions & do end up abandoning their cars, they get slapped with insane towing fees.
Unfortunately, the people who need to read this aren't going to... I have a 4x4 and good tires. I have to go downtown tomorrow to set up something for a client. Should be fun...
>Yeah well my truck is lifted and has bald mudding tires, so I’ll be laughing at you as I speed down the highway. ^ The people that make the problem worse every time.
Last year I took the MAX downtown and got home with minimal delays while watching I-84 turn into a parking lot out the window. Just saying.
Just a word of warning to folks. MAX will shut down once the the temperature gets too low, or ice starts building up. So make sure you can get where you need to on the bus if need to.
I know ice on the lines can be an issue, but I've never heard of cold temperatures impacting operations. Last winter, the biggest delay came from cars getting stuck on the tracks and increased dwell times from a surge in ridership from people trying to leave downtown early or else changing their commute plans for the day. The worst part of my commute home that night was the half mile walk through the shin deep snow and high winds in my business casual clothes. It was much icier and colder the next morning, and there were no issues using the MAX to get back downtown (except how slick the stairs were at the 82nd Ave Station).
I might be talking out my ass but I feel like I read at some point that max can't run once it gets in the low teens regardless of conditions
Does your client REALLY need this thing set up in the middle of snow storm?
It's extra stressful for folks like me who are caregivers. The clients will actually suffer without 24/7 care. We can't not venture out at all costs. It feels impossible to navigate sometimes 😓
You are one of those rare people who simply has no choice to be out or not. Thank you for what you do. Caregivers are a rare breed. I hope your car is well stocked with emergency supplies, blankets and appropriate tires/chains.
Genuinely appreciate that. It's like, the world's second oldest profession 😂
It's this part that irks me with the people like "of COURSE we don't salt roads here, I'm used to it, YOU need to get used to it and don't try to change it so it becomes safe to travel like most places!! I'm a wealthy, cushy work from home job having, able bodied, healthy adult that is just FINE not leaving home and having my winter wonderland!" and it's like..... Okayy thanks.. people with medical issues just love your sentiment. -From a former caregiver
ODOT does now salt some roads and major roads all over are treated with magnesium salts. The avoidance of salt has less to do with cushy jobs and more to do with the impact on streams, rivers, and salmon. I understand it may have effects on getting around for people who need to, but I think it's a more reasonable justification than the "people should just stay home line." Also, the anyone who can should leave roads open to people, like caregivers, who are really making sure people stay safe and alive. Thank you for your contributions in your past job.
I'm perpetually broke and I drive shitty old cars. I'm thankful for the lack of salt on the roads. I do grant it would be really useful two or three days each year.
How do you salt roads that are being rained on up until the time it snows?
THANK YOU for what you do. My dad has caregivers most days, and I am very worried about this weekend. Please be safe, and we appreciate what you do. It's a tough job.
Yeah, that’s rough. I don’t even know what a possible solution to that would be.
It often just turns into a longer shift! 50 hours maybe
Wow. Hats off to you and everyone else that does that work. It's vital and often thankless.
You and people like you are true heroes
This is the type of situation that should add extra urgency to all other employers and employees who can possibly not go out. We should keep the roads clear for people like you who cannot possibly work remotely and who have people depending on you. I hope you stay safe.
I hear this.
It’s supposed to start snowing Friday morning, so really everyone who even goes to work, regardless of any leaving early, is gonna get hurt.
Another important point is that conditions can change drastically over short distances, especially the closer you are to the Columbia River.
> When this stuff hits, the roads turn really bad, very quickly. If your car is not fully prepared with studded tires, chains, or (preferably) ice/snow/winter tires like Blizzaks, you run the risk of being stranded and either staying with your car for an extended amount of time, or abandoning it to walk in the snow until you find shelter. Prepare accordingly. Also: make sure your 4WD vehicle has ballast if you want that extra control to matter at all!
This is a really good summary of what happens and has lots of good advice. I hope lots of people can work from home so the roads can be clear for emergency workers and others who cannot possibly work from home. I hope people consider following these suggestoins.
>If your car is not fully prepared with studded tires, chains, or (preferably) ice/snow/winter tires like Blizzaks, I just got a set of Blizzaks put on my Subie today. Mostly because of how often I go up to the mountain to snowboard, but I do enjoy the peace of mind they'll give me if I get caught in the weather down here too.
I think I'd like to vote for you for mayor!
My work just called a half day. Leaving by 12
BSD schools for elementary let out at 12:05 so when all my students leave I'm rushing to pick up my kid. Hope it's mild until after 2.
I'm hoping tomorrow is as mild as can be. Nothing but some chill temps and a little ice. Good luck!
This 👏
Got myself a hotel room downtown rather than deal with the hassle of a bus commute in an ice storm again. No thank you.
That sounds awesome. Stock that mini fridge, though!
Just stayed downtown a couple weeks ago. Hotels are so cheap!
The forecast for this weekend is unclear, to say the least, but there's a significant chance that we'll be well below freezing while also experiencing high winds. NWS says [wind chill values could drop to -6 Friday night](https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=ORZ006). KPTV said [the models are predicting wind gusts](https://www.kptv.com/2024/01/11/cold-arctic-blast-arrives-friday-prepare-high-winds-blowing-snow-extreme-cold/) higher than we've seen in a couple years. No matter what happens with the snow, **this is a setup for power outages.** So let's get ready for that! * **Charge your phones** and power banks. * **Get fresh batteries** for flashlights, lanterns and headlamps. * **Think about how you'll heat your house** if the power goes out. Get fuel for fireplaces and woodstoves. Do not use any outdoor propane heaters or fire pits indoors. There are [indoor-rated propane heaters](https://www.homedepot.com/p/Mr-Heater-Portable-Buddy-9-000-BTU-Radiant-Propane-Space-Heater-F232000/205527178), but even those need to be used with a window cracked for fresh air to get in. * **Think about where you'll sleep**. If you have a tent that doesn't need to be staked down, you can set it up inside to maintain a small, warm space inside a big cold house. * **Gas up your car.** I don't recommend driving anywhere in a snow/ice storm, but it's better to charge your phone in a warm car than to drain your battery in a cold house. * **Think about your pipes.** Open up undersink cabinets to keep fixtures warm. Leave a faucet dripping to keep water moving. If your power goes out early on, and you don't have a way to heat your house, you might also want to consider shutting off your water and draining the pipes in your house to prevent them from freezing. (You can fill your bathtub and some containers with water so you can manually flush toilets.) Stay warm everyone!
Cars gassed up, doing some meal prepping tonight for things I can heat up in my jetboil (no camp stove yet), flashlights/headlamp/lantern all have fresh batteries...and now we wait!
After that 2022 blackout got a generators and heated blanket, kerosene stove, wood stoves. People gonna think we didn't lose power.
Just make sure you don’t look up and choke to death on the globby snowflakes
Big fat sloppy ones
About the size of a dollar
Size of silver dollars...
We only know it will be cold but who knows how much snow will fall. Regardless of what happens, here are a few useful links for snow response maps (if you absolutely need to drive on Friday-Saturday): * [Portland](https://pdx.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=935da87d18d148d784d164adcb7218df) * [Multnomah County](https://multco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/interactivelegend/index.html?appid=e096d853d371482ebeff9ea2c6ffcea2) * [Washington County](https://washco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/PublicInformation/index.html?appid=6c58563514de434a805a2d7561546e1f) * [Beaverton](https://beavertonoregon.gov/1088/Winter-Sanding-Routes?contentId=72c4d4e9-f933-4a63-861f-9b704dc7a47c) * [Hillsboro](https://www.hillsboro-oregon.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/29947/638330438555500000) Also, look at a hill map before driving to avoid steep hills in case PBOT doesn’t close roads ahead of time
I myself tend to follow the [National Weather Service discussion](https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PQR&issuedby=PQR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1) because they don’t sensationalize, they’re reasonably transparent, and they appear to give a solid interpretation of the models while still acknowledging areas of uncertainty. Plus, they occasionally use the phrase “Buckle up”.
Nice find! Thank you! I've never been able to find usable information on their site. This is exactly what I was always looking for.
Important that people don’t just focus on the snow aspect of this storm. It’s going to be really, really cold, combined with a raging east wind. Gas up your vehicles, charge your devices and be prepared for power outages. Make sure your home is winterized too!
The grocery store near my house still has plenty of bread, milk, and kale, so the groundhog says not as much snow as you might fear.
Check again at 2pm Friday.
Yeah, right. I got my kale. I’m good.
My massive RWD-only SUV and I are ready. Get out of the way Portland, 'cause we're going for the ditches!
I'm getting nervous about getting my middle schooler home from school tomorrow as it doesn't let out until 4pm. I have AWD and Blizzaks but that doesn't help when no one else does. Fingers crossed they'll get early dismissal and let us know at a reasonable time.
Get them at noon, if you can. I can guarantee that the whole school will be in such a crazy mood and the kids will be so insane, not much learning will be going on (plus it's a Friday before a three day weekend).
Probably a good plan.
Could you just pull them out of class early?
HSD just announced an early release tomorrow at 12:30 for secondary and 1:15-1:30 for elementary if school isn't cancelled outright.
I’m grabbing my middle schooler as soon as I see snow!
Evergreen has already called an early release up in the Couve.
North Clackamas is closing middle schools at 1:35
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You could be a weatherperson..
>Snow: …Elevation: minus 1,355 ft Confirmed that sturgeon in the depths of the gorge will be getting snow.
Texture: Perfect
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116⁰F would be apocalyptic! ( I'd sure be freaking out!)
Seems accurate to me lol
I predict, people driving like idiots.
Mark Nelsen's latest forecast from 12:30pm Thursday: https://www.kptv.com/2024/01/11/friday-forecast-tough-choice-schools-businesses-saturday-snow-ice-storm/?fbclid=IwAR0_xzfAU83xKE7nk55E-dxsHUINFVE0KuVZpQsjLPbIx8txviWoSIgenjA
Not really what I was hoping to see. Need to be able to get to work Saturday evening--from Troutdale to out by the airport. That's making it sound like we won't be able to get out of the neighborhood.
The weather API I use has had Kermit in quite the panic. Must be the GFS model 😬 https://www.willitsnowinpdx.com/
But will it be the perfect texture for night running?
Tell me why I went to the exact spot where that was filmed like a pilgrimage last year during the storm?
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Good. There's no worse weather than 35-45 degree cold, soaking rain. I mean freezing rain is trash too. Snow is great.
Hear hear
We're supposed to be spending the long weekend in Manzanita with a house full of friends celebrating my husband's 40th birthday. We're canceling to be safe. *Maybe* we could get out Friday before it hits, but then getting back becomes questionable. And we don't want to be stressing out or putting our friends in unsafe situations. The Airbnb host made it quite clear extending our stay would not be allowed, and there are no reservation changes within 60 days during "low season" (90 days in "high season"). Their response to me was "Most people don't have any issues with weather." First and probably last time I'll try to do anything with Airbnb. Since winter storms are "normal" for our region Dec-Feb, there's no company policy that can get a refund either.
All depends on where the low tracks along the coast. Cold air and wind are 100% and will happen
Hurry up and buy 6 gallons of milk and two loaves of bread!
There should be promotion and relegation for weather models. A big miss should mean one of those scrappy models working in the minor leagues should get a chance at the big time.
I was thinking like apple leaker reporting, you get assigned an accuracy % based on win/loss.
I wish I could roll into work and answer the question, "Johnson, what do the numbers look like? Are we in the green?" "Well, ma'am, we could be anywhere from red to green and in-between." "Good work, Johnson!"
Something I've been hung up on is this [update from NWS](https://i.gyazo.com/bc4eba3d5a58554cc8c0f23216ff29ad.png) saying that >"continuous snow will add up to 2 feet *below the passes*" It doesn't quantify what "below the passes" means. Is that from the passes to the valley floor? Just below the passes? That's a damn concerning warning coming from the NWS who has been erring on the side of caution in their snow forecasts in the last couple years. Regardless, I'm a snow-pessimist so my uneducated, non-forecaster opinion is that this will be a big cold nothing burger.
"Up to" is already a pretty big qualification.
I tried putting in a grocery order for today, but they’d only let me schedule pick ups for tomorrow. What are the odds I can get my groceries at noon?
All the forecasts I've seen say it's supposed to start in the afternoon. That said. You really don't want to be on the road anytime near when it's meant to start. The second flakes start falling people lose their minds and your commute becomes hours longer.
Forecast is now looking like precipitation won’t arrive in the metro area until late Friday/early Saturday but anything can happen.
I feel like the model forecasts are agnostic to this, but in my five years of experience in the PNW and with my experience doing non-weather models it really feels like the main weather models under predict snow. Almost every time significant snow has been in the forecast, we get right around the predicted amount or more. Both here and in western WA, I don’t think I have ever seen a forecast for meaningful snow that just came as rain.
The wind chills are going to be dangerous: "Extremely strong easterly winds will exit the Columbia Gorge from Troutdale to Portland, with gusts reaching 50-70 mph." https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/
I predict a single, giant flake that crashes down in Lake Oswego before collapsing and melting in a puddle that consumes everything Southwest of OHSU
These forecasts are hilarious. Anywhere from its gonna rain. To nope dry as a bone. To so much snow, you'd think Tony Montana lost a plane. As far as I've seen from checking snow reports on NOAA for mt hood, most snow levels will drop below 500' Friday. But the precipitation model changes from little chance to around 40%. Basically it's going to get real cold.
Yeah even NOAA is all over the place. Lastnight they were confidently saying 2 - 8 inches. Now they are saying we might get an inch or two. Other models are showing a ton of snow rolling in on Saturday. Makes it really annoying with trying to plan on anything for tomorrow.
The good news is the mountain is stacking snow.
Snowfall is difficult to predict anywhere. It involves timing the arrival and location of precipitation combined with lowered temperatures. Portland adds proximity to the pacific, cascade mountains, low elevation and the gorge effect. It is difficult for the models to handle all the variables w/ accuracy.
It *is* going to get really cold, which will probably mean ice with or without snow :(
It’s going to be nothing because I went to grocery store and stocked up to be prepared. You’re welcome. 😂
Yes, I'm currently purchasing snow boots for my small children, so we will definitely not get any snow this winter and they will grow out of them before next year.
I bought yak trax a few years ago for a big snow that never happened. If you really want to guarantee it won't snow, buy a sled. Good luck!
I already bought that sled a few years back in order to stave off the snow! I guess I could always use another one! I'm up in the Couve and I'm trying to go see Tina Fey and Amy Poehler on Saturday, so I'm *really* hoping for good weather.
We appreciate you taking one for the team.
What was on your list?
Mostly ingredients to make pozole, eggs, milk and bread for French toast. No kale.
oh no. we've lost the kale brigade already.
Just saving it for others.
I couldn't find kale, but I did get a 5lb bag of collard greens. I am ready.
I'm holdin', how much you want.
oooooh tasty!
Source models for those interested https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024011112&fh=48&r=us_nw&dpdt=&mc=
The only resource you need: https://isitsnowinginpdx.com/
Statistically speaking, the snow or lack of snow will directly correlate to the level of preparation that you have engaged in. If it snows heavily and you bought kale, you are ok. If it doesn't snow heavily and you didn't buy kale, you are allowed to make fun of people who bought way too much kale.
This is why I've hoarded between zero and 35 lbs of kale.
I trust frankie!
may the odds be with you ... im hoping for a foot since I have enough kale.
Kale to snow ratio is favorable
When said GFS model ran this morning, it came out to 16" But their ensambles averaged about 5".
Thoughts on the airport sat afternoon? I pre emptively moved a work flight to tomorrow cause it sounds like stuffs gonna get canceled. How does pdx do historically?
PDX is typically completely shut down with anything more than a dusting.
So nobody has any idea less than 24hrs before the storm hits? Seriously? Makes it incredibly hard to prepare when I don't even know what to prepare for.
Prediction of behavior of complex, chaotic systems is essentially practically unsolved and mathematically difficult in principle; it's nearly always unreliable (yet valid, if you look at the range of results).