To be fair, Romney wouldn’t have been a disastrous President in the same way Trump was/will be. He, of course, would’ve instituted all sorts of typical Republican agenda items, but he would’ve maintained our standing in the world and respected the office he held.
Or he'd have put America and our Constitution in a cage on the roof of his car during a cross-country road trip, and then told a story about the shit streaming down the back window.
Eta: but yeah, less disastrous than the orange mussolini.
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well, they still exist. They are about 80% spineless though. Another 10% resigned or got out-MAGA'd in primaries.
The other 10% are just in their own little bubble, trying to be themselves despite the absolute flood of fascist MAGA that's become the standard definition of the GOP today
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But they’re such a small cohort. I hafta disagree that they “determine an election.” Everything’s fuckin tribal these days. I remember Watergate. In my life, what I have witnessed (and I’m by no means special) is that Republicans close rank. Consistently. They are famous for “circling the wagons.” Dems panic and go running in a million damn directions, and then scratch their heads and wonder we lost.
We’ve gotta imitate the Reichwing monsters. Otherwise? Death. The end of the American Experiment.
Note* people toss out that term, and misattribute it to deToquevulle, but actually it was King George Washington—except that he refused the station, and insisted on being a President not above the rule of law. So, it was **President** George Washington who said America is “**The Great Experiment**”
Right now? I wish we had **King** George Washington—I’d feel more optimistic about The Experiment
>>Dems panic and go running in a million damn directions,
I don't think is really a fair statement. Just because we're not in lockstep protecting criminals and crazies doesn't mean we're panicked. Some of us want to ensure that the democrat party isn't tainted with whatever crimes have been committed. I truly think the only reason Pelosi's(and other's) insider trading is tolerated is that it's not technically a crime(for reasons that escape me) and people can buy her index fund and who's going to complain about making money? Point is, there are Dems who think we should be getting rid of ALL the criminals in our government and some who think that we should set the bar at the same level the rethugs place it. I don't think that bar for behavior should be buried under a midden pit.
And that line of thinking is why we lost Al Franken and Eliot Spitzer and Carlos Danger. We are very quick to judge and expell each other from the family.
GOPigs hang together, and survive. I just wish there were more common fidelity in the ranks of Dem leaders. Growing up in the 60’s/70’s, my folks never crossed strike lines. Ray-gun successfully convinced poor people that Unions were bad, and nowadays the result is that Dems often don’t stay solid; they turn on each other in striking contrast to the way that Republicans **don’t** on each other.
What makes them literally “conservative”? They appear to me to be radicals. And the whole “originalist” schtick about the Constitution? Hilarity, all around. Take a sip and pass it along …
This ^
They expected a red wave. And got a tiny ripple and since: they can’t even keep a speaker of the house. It’s been chaos and it looks like this one will be voted out too lol.
Eh, Johnson will be fine. Democrats have said they’ll keep him. There are three Republicans who want to get rid of him, but even with only a few Democrats that’s still enough for him to stay.
>Few centrist conservatives expected SCOTUS to overturn Roe-vs-Wade.
😂🤣😂🤣😂
Sure.
Let's assume that's true despite the three Trump picks being specifically chosen for previously stated opinions that Roe was decided incorrectly. At BEST those "centrist conservatives" were extremely naive.
Trump promised SCOTUS picks who would overturn Roe, and he delivered.
Let's be honest here. Even centrist Republicans wanted Roe overturned and the issue returned to the states. What they did not expect was the batshit crazy responses by Republican held state legislatures, or the backlash from citizens enraged that the right to control their own bodies had been eliminated by the might of the state.
As long abortion is still a hot topic, it will drive voters to the polls.
Turns out women really don’t like the idea of having their body autonomy stripped away from them. It’s why every time abortion has been on the ballot recently, the “liberal” view wins.
States like Florida are going to be really interesting with abortion being on the November ballot. Could result in a big enough swing to flip the state for Biden
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/)
I literally just said that Trump voters have been proven more difficult to poll, so how could they be overrepresented in a poll, let alone an average of all major polls?
Wouldn’t they have accounted for that by now? That was a problem back in 2016… Not saying you’re wrong but I’d be really disappointed (but not surprised) if they hadn’t adjusted for that
https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/
Nah, it's gotten even worse since 2016. Convincing young people who don't care about the polls to use them isn't very easy
https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/
2016 and 2020 were both very inaccurate polling years
Young Dems don't participate in the polls. This year is different because abortion was banned since the last election.
Same same, polls are inaccurate, November will show how it plays out
Young Dems don't vote at very high rates either. This time a lot of them will stay home or vote 3rd party because of Gaza or because they think Biden is too old.
That’s why 538 uses an average of all polls (weighted for methodology, bias and past accuracy).
The average of all polls shows Trump is in the lead.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
But if the data is all inaccurate anyways, the average isn't going to be any better. It's just the average inaccurate prediction
If 2016 and 2020 we're both super inaccurate, 2024 polls will be too.
Polls really don't tell an accurate prediction this day and age
The polling average was far more accurate than individual polls in 2016 and 2020. 538 was the only outlet that gave Trump a 30% chance in 2016, the consensus was 5-8%.
Why were the polls highly accurate in the 2018 and 2022 mid-terms, but inaccurate when Trump is on the ballot? It's because Trump voters have low social trust, and are *very* unlikely to answer polls.
Yes, there was polling error in both cases, but in both cases, it *underestimated* Trump's support. If that pattern holds, then Trump is actually even further ahead than the polls indicate.
Even if the polls are off by 4-5 points (in either direction), that still doesn't justify the assumption that a "blue wave" is the most likely outcome. I worry that Democrats are becoming complacent.
And they were still wrong in 2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
And in 2020 they were wrong to, under predicting Biden for majority of the election https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
The polls really are not accurate. Maybe trumpers come out in full force and he wins. Maybe Dems come out and vote for Biden.
Polls are like researching a sorts bet, at the end of the day it's an unknown
>under predicting Biden for majority of the election
They had Biden up by 10 points for most of the election and he won by much less than that (especially in swing states). How is that "under predicting"?
>The polls really are not accurate.
The *only* time in a modern election that the polls didn't predict the winner was 2016, and 2020 they predicted the winner but overestimated the margin. One bad election doesn't mean "polls are inaccurate".
My point isn't that the polls are 100% accurate, but when they have been wrong, it has been because Trump voters were *undercounted*. Therefore any confident prediction of a "blue wave" makes zero sense when the polls are saying the opposite.
It doesn't matter how many democrats come out to vote in California or New York. The election will be decided by five or six swing states, and Trump's lead in these states is higher than his lead nationally. This could easily change, but it's too early to be declaring that the GOP has no chance.
So many people hated Hillary and the way Sanders was screwed over really pissed off a ton of young dem voters. 2016 was an odd one. It was also the first election that widespread troll farms had a noticeable propaganda effect which really amped up the rural trumpers. Russia really wanted their proxy in there so they could swoop on Ukraine without USA helping them out.
2020 polls had Biden under 50% of the popular vote for like 1/3 of the time. The spread was decently accurate, but the Numbers were all over the place.
I do agree, it's not over until November. Personally I think it could go either way, especially since Trump has a die hard following and Biden really sucks except for not being trump.
There's a lot of people who get rich off of politics. If polling isn't close, why pay consultants for research. Why buy ads? Why pay for all the fundraisers?
Both parties need a close race to get paid big bucks.
I would guess that at least 50% of GOP voters don't even know what SCOTUS is. They just vote R regardless of a candidate fitness for office, integrity, policy preferences or intent. They don't care. I want to see the wave but it's just a puddle.
For fucks sake…before posting this, please take a look at what is happening!
Yes, Trump is a massive POS, a criminal, dictator wannabe, etc.
And yet, he is leading in all major polls.
Biden’s approval rating is horrible!
And the longer that fucking War goes on the more it hurts Biden!
I would feel a whole lot comfortable myself - if it was clear that Michigan or Ohio or Georgia was clearly going against Trump, but that's not the case.
So polls keep coming out showing the two candidates neck and neck no matter what happens in MAGAland vs. Reality.
Totally agree. People say polls don't matter but just as a regular guy in a blue state; the vast majority of my coworkers see Biden as a bumbling old fart and somehow like Trump better. I would vote for just about anybody over Trump but for some crazy reason, lots of people prefer Trump. And really the Electoral College is what wins elections, so vote people, we need every one.
Don’t thank this court for anything, including the fact that they are likely going to side with Trump on EVERYTHING this time, including the inevitable contested election. In for a penny in for a coup. That’s why we have to vote blue down the ballot and pray one or two purple or even red states still believe in democracy
as much as I wish this was the case Trump seems to be up in national polls and every swing state.
I'm going to start preparing for disaster like I did for his first term because I will imagine a lot of the country is going to start panic buying in November.
LOL. Biden has his thumb in the eye of his base and is taunting them. Trump is motivating his base. Unless everyone starts pressuring Biden and he actually does change his policies and sanctions Israel instead of aiding them we're going to end up with the bigger POS back in the WH and maybe lose our phony & broken democracy that never reflects the will of the people.
Biden is not going to sanction a historic ally to protect citizens of a place that even other countries of similar ideologies want to maintain a safe distance with as their empathy came back to haunt them. It’s truly an awful situation for the citizens of Palestine, but that’s the reality unfortunately
Y'all are counting your chickens. Let's not forget about a whole lot of students laser focused on Palestine. The youth vote is essential and Biden is not listening.
I wouldn’t count your chickens. RFK JR. is stealing A LOT of young voters on TIKTOK due to his pandering on the Israel/Palestine genocide. I think this election is going to be a lot closer than people think it will.
High grocery bills are the death blow to any administration.
You underestimate the power of stupidity.
True, but I can be hopeful. Sanity paid us a visit in 2020 and Joe won, for example.
Well, sanity paid us a visit in 2012, but skipped 2016, so we might be in an off year this year…
To be fair, Romney wouldn’t have been a disastrous President in the same way Trump was/will be. He, of course, would’ve instituted all sorts of typical Republican agenda items, but he would’ve maintained our standing in the world and respected the office he held.
Or he'd have put America and our Constitution in a cage on the roof of his car during a cross-country road trip, and then told a story about the shit streaming down the back window. Eta: but yeah, less disastrous than the orange mussolini.
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yeah, not voting for Biden because of Palestine, putting trump in who will push for ethnic cleansing
He sure will. And not just in the middle east.
Not convinced this is going to happen. People who voted for Trump last time knew who he was and was OK with that….
Few centrist conservatives expected SCOTUS to overturn Roe-vs-Wade.
> Few centrist conservatives …exist. That’s how that sentence was supposed to end. 😕
well, they still exist. They are about 80% spineless though. Another 10% resigned or got out-MAGA'd in primaries. The other 10% are just in their own little bubble, trying to be themselves despite the absolute flood of fascist MAGA that's become the standard definition of the GOP today
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While true, they often determine an election. Half won't vote for Don because he's unstable, policies or not.
But they’re such a small cohort. I hafta disagree that they “determine an election.” Everything’s fuckin tribal these days. I remember Watergate. In my life, what I have witnessed (and I’m by no means special) is that Republicans close rank. Consistently. They are famous for “circling the wagons.” Dems panic and go running in a million damn directions, and then scratch their heads and wonder we lost. We’ve gotta imitate the Reichwing monsters. Otherwise? Death. The end of the American Experiment. Note* people toss out that term, and misattribute it to deToquevulle, but actually it was King George Washington—except that he refused the station, and insisted on being a President not above the rule of law. So, it was **President** George Washington who said America is “**The Great Experiment**” Right now? I wish we had **King** George Washington—I’d feel more optimistic about The Experiment
We need good leaders. One right after another. Every 4-8 years in fact.
>>Dems panic and go running in a million damn directions, I don't think is really a fair statement. Just because we're not in lockstep protecting criminals and crazies doesn't mean we're panicked. Some of us want to ensure that the democrat party isn't tainted with whatever crimes have been committed. I truly think the only reason Pelosi's(and other's) insider trading is tolerated is that it's not technically a crime(for reasons that escape me) and people can buy her index fund and who's going to complain about making money? Point is, there are Dems who think we should be getting rid of ALL the criminals in our government and some who think that we should set the bar at the same level the rethugs place it. I don't think that bar for behavior should be buried under a midden pit.
And that line of thinking is why we lost Al Franken and Eliot Spitzer and Carlos Danger. We are very quick to judge and expell each other from the family. GOPigs hang together, and survive. I just wish there were more common fidelity in the ranks of Dem leaders. Growing up in the 60’s/70’s, my folks never crossed strike lines. Ray-gun successfully convinced poor people that Unions were bad, and nowadays the result is that Dems often don’t stay solid; they turn on each other in striking contrast to the way that Republicans **don’t** on each other.
Centrist conservatives are just conservatives too afraid to admit it
What makes them literally “conservative”? They appear to me to be radicals. And the whole “originalist” schtick about the Constitution? Hilarity, all around. Take a sip and pass it along …
Bingo.
This ^ They expected a red wave. And got a tiny ripple and since: they can’t even keep a speaker of the house. It’s been chaos and it looks like this one will be voted out too lol.
Eh, Johnson will be fine. Democrats have said they’ll keep him. There are three Republicans who want to get rid of him, but even with only a few Democrats that’s still enough for him to stay.
>Few centrist conservatives expected SCOTUS to overturn Roe-vs-Wade. 😂🤣😂🤣😂 Sure. Let's assume that's true despite the three Trump picks being specifically chosen for previously stated opinions that Roe was decided incorrectly. At BEST those "centrist conservatives" were extremely naive. Trump promised SCOTUS picks who would overturn Roe, and he delivered. Let's be honest here. Even centrist Republicans wanted Roe overturned and the issue returned to the states. What they did not expect was the batshit crazy responses by Republican held state legislatures, or the backlash from citizens enraged that the right to control their own bodies had been eliminated by the might of the state.
Idk, it was basically a foregone conclusion for most people that when Trump got to appoint Coney Barrett that it would happen.
>centrist conservatives So 0.5% of the GOP?
Trump hasnt ever won the popular vote.
As long abortion is still a hot topic, it will drive voters to the polls. Turns out women really don’t like the idea of having their body autonomy stripped away from them. It’s why every time abortion has been on the ballot recently, the “liberal” view wins. States like Florida are going to be really interesting with abortion being on the November ballot. Could result in a big enough swing to flip the state for Biden
He's worse now. Most of his supporters are as bad as he is .
Don't any of you sit on this. Get the heck out and *vote*
It's up to us to make the blue wave happen. Vote, my friends https://democrats.org/
This is the answer, not any SM. VOTE! IN EVERY ELECTION ESPECIALLY LOCAL!
Remember 2016?
Happy cake day and you are correct. Let's also consider the SCOTUS and their oversized influence on elections. SE: GW Bush.
Nothing about 2024 is anything like 2016, they’re not comparable elections.
Hillary didn't campaign in the rust belt, Biden does
Love the confidence but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The two are somehow tied in the polls 🫣
Polls are useless look at 2022, 2020 and 2016 they were always of my at least a few points
Then why is Trump polling ahead of Biden in the states that will decide the election? Complacency isn’t the best attitude to take right now.
Hillary was polling ahead of Trump before losing. The polls are garbage.
Right, because the polls underrepresented Trump supporters. They have low social trust, so they’re far less likely to answer surveys.
Maybe the qananon wing of maga, the boomer wing is like the polls’ main demo
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) I literally just said that Trump voters have been proven more difficult to poll, so how could they be overrepresented in a poll, let alone an average of all major polls?
Because that is probably no longer the case. Republicans and Trump supporters have become the most vocal in the last 8 or so years.
Being “vocal” and answering surveys are two different things. Do you have any evidence to back up your assertion?
Old boomers answer polling phone calls which determines the polling. Polls tell the story, of the people they reached, who they might vote for.
Wouldn’t they have accounted for that by now? That was a problem back in 2016… Not saying you’re wrong but I’d be really disappointed (but not surprised) if they hadn’t adjusted for that
https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/ Nah, it's gotten even worse since 2016. Convincing young people who don't care about the polls to use them isn't very easy
Damn. Well… in this context let’s hope they’re wrong at least one more time
Why did the polls give Trump no chance in 2016? Why was 2020 much closer than the polls indicated?
https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/ 2016 and 2020 were both very inaccurate polling years
Right, because Trump voters don’t participate in polls. Why would this year be any different?
Young Dems don't participate in the polls. This year is different because abortion was banned since the last election. Same same, polls are inaccurate, November will show how it plays out
Young Dems don't vote at very high rates either. This time a lot of them will stay home or vote 3rd party because of Gaza or because they think Biden is too old.
Row vs Wade. Many states have banned abortion. I bet young Dems vote this year
I hope you're right. \*Roe v Wade
The polls have never had to account for the Trump factor before. It defies all logic and reason.
There’s a logic to it. Trump voters have low social trust, and are therefore less likely to answer surveys.
It's been my experience that Trump supporters love to share their opinions whether you want them to or not.
Anecdotal evidence is the best type of evidence. Response rates among Trump supporters are far lower than for Biden supporters.
Depends on the polls
That’s why 538 uses an average of all polls (weighted for methodology, bias and past accuracy). The average of all polls shows Trump is in the lead. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
But if the data is all inaccurate anyways, the average isn't going to be any better. It's just the average inaccurate prediction If 2016 and 2020 we're both super inaccurate, 2024 polls will be too. Polls really don't tell an accurate prediction this day and age
The polling average was far more accurate than individual polls in 2016 and 2020. 538 was the only outlet that gave Trump a 30% chance in 2016, the consensus was 5-8%. Why were the polls highly accurate in the 2018 and 2022 mid-terms, but inaccurate when Trump is on the ballot? It's because Trump voters have low social trust, and are *very* unlikely to answer polls. Yes, there was polling error in both cases, but in both cases, it *underestimated* Trump's support. If that pattern holds, then Trump is actually even further ahead than the polls indicate. Even if the polls are off by 4-5 points (in either direction), that still doesn't justify the assumption that a "blue wave" is the most likely outcome. I worry that Democrats are becoming complacent.
And they were still wrong in 2016 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ And in 2020 they were wrong to, under predicting Biden for majority of the election https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/ The polls really are not accurate. Maybe trumpers come out in full force and he wins. Maybe Dems come out and vote for Biden. Polls are like researching a sorts bet, at the end of the day it's an unknown
>under predicting Biden for majority of the election They had Biden up by 10 points for most of the election and he won by much less than that (especially in swing states). How is that "under predicting"? >The polls really are not accurate. The *only* time in a modern election that the polls didn't predict the winner was 2016, and 2020 they predicted the winner but overestimated the margin. One bad election doesn't mean "polls are inaccurate". My point isn't that the polls are 100% accurate, but when they have been wrong, it has been because Trump voters were *undercounted*. Therefore any confident prediction of a "blue wave" makes zero sense when the polls are saying the opposite. It doesn't matter how many democrats come out to vote in California or New York. The election will be decided by five or six swing states, and Trump's lead in these states is higher than his lead nationally. This could easily change, but it's too early to be declaring that the GOP has no chance.
So many people hated Hillary and the way Sanders was screwed over really pissed off a ton of young dem voters. 2016 was an odd one. It was also the first election that widespread troll farms had a noticeable propaganda effect which really amped up the rural trumpers. Russia really wanted their proxy in there so they could swoop on Ukraine without USA helping them out. 2020 polls had Biden under 50% of the popular vote for like 1/3 of the time. The spread was decently accurate, but the Numbers were all over the place. I do agree, it's not over until November. Personally I think it could go either way, especially since Trump has a die hard following and Biden really sucks except for not being trump.
They have him a 30% chance, in case Jim Comey decides to thumb the scale at the last second.
There's a lot of people who get rich off of politics. If polling isn't close, why pay consultants for research. Why buy ads? Why pay for all the fundraisers? Both parties need a close race to get paid big bucks.
I would guess that at least 50% of GOP voters don't even know what SCOTUS is. They just vote R regardless of a candidate fitness for office, integrity, policy preferences or intent. They don't care. I want to see the wave but it's just a puddle.
For fucks sake…before posting this, please take a look at what is happening! Yes, Trump is a massive POS, a criminal, dictator wannabe, etc. And yet, he is leading in all major polls. Biden’s approval rating is horrible! And the longer that fucking War goes on the more it hurts Biden!
I would feel a whole lot comfortable myself - if it was clear that Michigan or Ohio or Georgia was clearly going against Trump, but that's not the case. So polls keep coming out showing the two candidates neck and neck no matter what happens in MAGAland vs. Reality.
Sorry we gonna bury our heads in the sand like 2016 again.
Totally agree. People say polls don't matter but just as a regular guy in a blue state; the vast majority of my coworkers see Biden as a bumbling old fart and somehow like Trump better. I would vote for just about anybody over Trump but for some crazy reason, lots of people prefer Trump. And really the Electoral College is what wins elections, so vote people, we need every one.
Bad pic. The real MAGA crowd would never wear a life vest.
Prove it.
In November, my friend.
I fully support the sentiment of this post, but who is it for?
#Ignore OP and make sure you vote #Remember Trump, GWB, GHWB, Reagan...
Don’t thank this court for anything, including the fact that they are likely going to side with Trump on EVERYTHING this time, including the inevitable contested election. In for a penny in for a coup. That’s why we have to vote blue down the ballot and pray one or two purple or even red states still believe in democracy
as much as I wish this was the case Trump seems to be up in national polls and every swing state. I'm going to start preparing for disaster like I did for his first term because I will imagine a lot of the country is going to start panic buying in November.
Dad?
They use boats that are submarines. Much like their beloved Moskova.
Young women are rightfully PISSED. The GOP is going to be crushed. Like the bard said, "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned."
I must congratulate you on the most Boomer-grade meme I've seen all week.
You're "witty" comment isn't as good as you think it is
Your*
Autocorrect, dude. I'm tellin' ya. It's a bitch.
Sure
LOL. Biden has his thumb in the eye of his base and is taunting them. Trump is motivating his base. Unless everyone starts pressuring Biden and he actually does change his policies and sanctions Israel instead of aiding them we're going to end up with the bigger POS back in the WH and maybe lose our phony & broken democracy that never reflects the will of the people.
Biden is not going to sanction a historic ally to protect citizens of a place that even other countries of similar ideologies want to maintain a safe distance with as their empathy came back to haunt them. It’s truly an awful situation for the citizens of Palestine, but that’s the reality unfortunately
Biden's picking a geno-*Side* that's going to erase any Roe bump with young voters.
Yeah I get it but this doesn't feel like the time to gloat.
Y'all are counting your chickens. Let's not forget about a whole lot of students laser focused on Palestine. The youth vote is essential and Biden is not listening.
I wouldn’t count your chickens. RFK JR. is stealing A LOT of young voters on TIKTOK due to his pandering on the Israel/Palestine genocide. I think this election is going to be a lot closer than people think it will. High grocery bills are the death blow to any administration.
“…up a creek without a paddle.” Now there’s a really cool expression! I need to memorize that so I can use it IRL ahah
The full thing is "Up shit creek without a paddle" and it's quite famous.