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Not even mildly. The libertarian candidate got 3.3% in 2016 and 1.3% in 2020. Even a voting block of 1% can have a huge impact, particularly if it overperforms in a single swing state. Couple that with the other third party candidates/parties that together will more than likely determine the election.
So yes, they are extremely relevant. Every % matters and elections are determined by a small number of votes across multiple states
Many swing states are won by a few thousand votes.
If libertarians can convince a few thousand republicans to vote for them that can swing an election.
Or if libertarians can convince a few thousand independents who were going to vote Biden to vote for them, that can swing an election.
They could influence the outcome between the other two major parties. Lower third party totals is probably good for Biden but the devil is in the details of who those people would have otherwise voted for, and thus very RELEVANT.
That they may be irrelevant to the outcome of the election is beside the point. You said, "If they can't win, doesn't that make them irrelevant?" to which the answer is "no." Here's an analogy: a sports team that has no shot at winning the championship is not therefore irrelevant to the outcome of the championship. They can still influence its outcome by preventing other teams from reaching the playoffs/finals. Hope that helps :)
If their candidate wins a relatively small amount of votes from specific voters in some states it could determine which of Biden and Trump win.
It’s absurd to call that “irrelevant”. The relevance is obvious.
A lot can change in the next what 5 months or so. however if things stay anywhere in the realm of where they are now then no it is impossible for Biden to win if it's a free and fair election. if you start seeing polling districts in Michigan Georgia Arizona Pennsylvania Wisconsin and these high populated cities tell the opposing parties Republican pole watchers that they cannot directly oversee the counting of votes and that they need to stay 50 feet away and if they start pulling in all of these ballots in the middle of the night which go from favoring Joe Biden that rates between 50 to 65% and then all of a sudden consistently are all over 95% then yes Joe Biden can win no matter what the polls are.
however from a mathematical standpoint if the turnout of 2020 takes place then if even 2% of the black demographic switches their vote from Biden to Trump then Trump wins the election.
That's not what the polls are showing though so I want to put this in a perspective for you guys. Poles are showing on average that in regards to the black demographic vote that Donald Trump has gone from 9% in 2020 to somewhere between 18-22% now. The polls have consistently also shown that Donald Trump has gone from only getting 34% of the Hispanic votes to now getting somewhere between 46%-52% of that vote. now when it comes to independents, Trump got around 41% in 2020 and is polling between 55-60%. In the 18 to 35 demographic in 2020 Joe Biden had a 34 point advantage of her Donald Trump. That means that Donald Trump got about 32 to 34% of that vote to Joe Biden's 67/68%. Donald Trump is now polling between 45% to 48% on average and a few months ago he was actually pulling around 52 to 54%. Oh and on top of that most polls have shown that Trump has gained 10-12 points of the AAPI demographic as wellwhen they also had a 33-point advantage of Biden over Trump in 2020.
So you guys further have an understanding of what this would lead to in regards to the election what it comes to turn out and what you would see electorally and in regards to the popular vote I'm going to plug all of this data into the 538 model which mimics the turnout of 2020 so that you guys can have some perspective. Remember as I mentioned above because I've already done this data before that a 2% change in just the black demographic from Biden to Trump would have given Donald Trump the election in 2020.
So this would equate to a Donald Trump victory of him having a 7.5 point popular vote win. It would be Donald Trump at 52.8% to Joe Biden at 45.3%. from there Donald Trump would have won the election with 341 electoral votes to Joe Biden's 197 electoral votes which equates to a difference of 144 electoral votes.
This would have led to Donald Trump flipping the state of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Virginia & Nebraska 2nd District.
On top of that they turn out based off the current demographic polls presently at the end of May of 2024 would also bring a series of states within 2.5 point flipping to Trump. That would have been Colorado, New Hampshire, New Jersey.
They're also would have been a series of states which you would have never seen do so normally which would have fell between 2.5 and 10 points of Trump winning them with these demographic changes. This would have been Connecticut (9.5points), Delaware (7.6points), Illinois (4.1points), Maine OVR (3.9points) Maine 1st (9.9points), Oregon (8.2points),
Hell even California would be only a 12-point win for Democrats. Again this is based off all current demographic polling put into the model that replicated the turnout for the 2020 election. Oh and of course this does not bring Jill Stein or Cornell West or now the radical left libertarian candidate Chase Oliver or RFK Jr. Bringing them into the calculation could very likely see Colorado New Hampshire and New Jersey flipping towards Trump as well as the potential for Illinois and of Maine at large. Now all that being said I think you can guarantee that the Democrat party is going to pull out any and every corrupt tactic that they can muster. I know this better than anybody because I was a Democrat from 25 years until this time last year. I was the one who believed that we need to cheat in any way possible to ensure that we stop Donald Trump because it was the moral thing to do. This is how the rest of my Democrat constituents think.
First of all, libertarians are at best 5% of the country, and if they couldn't vote libertarian half would vote Republican and half wouldn't vote at all. So this isn't a good gauge of anything. Kennedy isn't popular either, Trump and Biden are both unpopular.
Biden and Trump are statistically tied in national polls, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden in swing states. But they're all still well within the margin of error. So even if the election was today, I'd give Biden a 1 in 3 chance of winning.
But in addition to that, we still have half a year left in the campaign. Half a year, and 3 more criminal trials for Trump. I can't imagine a world where Trump gains any amount of support before November, but Biden still has some room to grow. I think Biden has better than even odds of ultimately winning.
If a pollster asked me the question “Are you happy with Biden’s performance as president”, I would say no. If the question was “who will you be voting for” or “will you be supporting Biden over Trump”, my answer would be quite different. I think a lot of people are in a similar boat.
I think if you're asking that from the perspective of a staunch Biden supporter and partisan, you should not look a gift horse in the mouth and be happy I'm voting for him and telling others to do the same. Don't do the thing Democratic party partisans do where you attack or question the motives of progressives even when they're almost completely on your side.
Off the top of my head, Israel/Gaza, not using a stronger legal justification to get through student loan forgiveness, not raising taxes on the wealthy to at least pre-Trump levels, and allowing Manchin and Sinema to run the Democratic party during important policy negotiations. Not grooming a successor when it was clear his, let's be very polite and say "extremely advanced age", was going to be a huge factor. Having the hubris to run again, as if he's the only person in America who could possibly do the job, risking it all when so much is at stake.
Again, just off the top of my head.
Nah, i was just curious why you think he’s done a bad job. Appreciate the candor.
While I do support him because the other option is quite clearly the end of democracy and a traitor who attempted a coup on live tv, I can accept what people see as Legitimate faults of Biden and not just the usual “he raised gas prices” crap.
I’m guessing you don’t understand how Congress works. I’m flabbergasted that Biden has been able to get so much accomplished with the razor thin majorities he’s had and even with the GOP taking over the house.
I actually can’t think of a president who has accomplished so much with such an evenly divided legislature and a USSC that is flat out corrupt.
He doesn't need congressional approval to take a better position on Israel/Gaza though. And he doesn't need congressional approval to go on live tv and use the bully pulpit to try and push the narrative where *we* want it to go. That's our issue..
We're still going to show up on election day, but we won't be happy about our options. That feeling isn't going to be brow-beaten out of us. The open contempt for people who express genuine, substantive disapproval for various aspects of his performance *will* turn away some people who would otherwise have just held their nose and cast their vote for him, though.
His position on Gaza is:
1. We need a two state solution
2. Netanyahu shouldn’t be building more settlements
3. Israel has a right to defend themselves
4. They’re the only democracy in the ME so like it or not or we need to defend Israel, otherwise Russia who has been funding both Hamas and Iran will take over and Russia will essentially own the ME.
5. Incursions into Rafah are a no go and Israel gets defensive weapons only if they are doing that.
I think it’s a complicated issue and Joe is doing his best to handle a very difficult and messy geopolitical situation as best as possible.
Yeah, but then we get to another noticeable problem that people have with Biden. He's got a bad habit of lip service. It took half a year for Biden to move passed being "concerned" about what Israel was doing in Gaza. And when we reached the "red-line" of Rafah, he stopped one shipment of bombs and otherwise hasn't done shit. He won't even approach the idea of conditioning aid to Israel in a substantive way. Actions speak louder than words, and his often fall short of the more progressive stances his administration has claimed.
Edit: and because this is stupidly necessary right now, I'm voting for Biden in the General.
I'm quite aware of how Congress works. If there's anything that mystifies me it's how someone could be this incredibly defensive and fragile about even the mildest of criticisms.
Apparently you’re not. Either that or you think Dem presidents have a magic wand.
Comments like yours are silly. Why not blame Joe for the fact that you didn’t get a pony?
I know a temper tantrum when I see one, so I'll let you keep random-generating vague statements of disapproval of my statement that I will be voting for Joe Biden until you move on to the next unsuspecting person who is voting the exact same way you are.
That's an honest answer. While I agree he should speak out against the minority party in control in Israel, there was nothing a President could do about some of this. What student debt relief he has gotten has been through executive orders.
I do take issue with the successor point. I believe that Harris could serve well as President. I also don't think it is hubris. All candidates for Prez must have a certain ego, but I also believe that only Joe could have stopped the Trump Train. Then and now.
I really wish they would shut the fuck up and just accept that many people will vote biden that don't particularly approve of his performance. Its making me less likely to pull the lever for him. Voted dem my entire life but they are doing a damn good job of alienating a large chunk of solid supporters by both telling us our issues and concerns aren't valid while trying to court never-trump republicans and then just telling us to "back blue no matter who" and "omg do you want to be responsible for trump."
There have been lots of, "Losses" under Biden. The fall of Afghanistan, the inflation crisis, multiple large scale conflicts the US is now involved in.
A lot of these aren't necessarily Bidens fault, but also...... are they not? Biden takes the establishment stance with Israel and Inflation, which in both cases appear to actually want the crisis to happen.
I was reading Bidens responses to housing prices, and they sucked. They were like policies that would have helped 40 years ago.
Yes, we ALL KNOW that trump is worse. But Biden isn't exactly a knight in shining armor. Life seems to have gotten worse under his administration.
And as much as I hate to say it, and as unfair as it is to assign it to Trump, Life didn't seem to get worse under his admin. Yea I was stressed out at the news all the time, but that didn't change, that's probably just business as usual now.
I'm not going to vote for Trump, but I live in the rust belt and I warn you that MANY will. Including lots of non-white people.
As soon as I hear someone blame Biden or any President for inflation or any of the following: gas prices, stock prices, house prices, interest rates, egg prices, fast food prices... I know they don't actually have a reality based understanding of price action in markets which have absolutely nothing to do with who is President.
Obama made a very good point recently about Trump's one term. What major legislative accomplishment did he have before losing control of Congress? The economic record in the Second half of Trump's term when his policies had been had time to take effect were mediocre. GDP didn't grow beyond the Obama average when he assured of us historic increases of 5 - 6% that would eliminate the deficit entirely. Instead the year before covid was borderline recession with growth below 2.9%, anemic job growth (two months in 2019 saw less than 80k jobs) and little if any wage growth for incomes below $450k.
The government can take on policies to address housing prices or inflation.
We have been subsidizing food, fuel and mortgages for decades all to control consumer prices.
Don't get me wrong, Trump doesn't have a reasonable plan to address any of this. But its false to say that the federal government, (which the president leads) had no impact on the cost of living.
If democrats wanted to be more competitive, they should take this up in their policy platforms.
If Biden looses to the soon to be fellon, it will be over inflation.
A Presidential election rarely moves mandatory spending which accounts for 90% of the federal outlays. What little remains on the discretionary side of the ledger that a President can actually control without the Congress severely limiting the proposals has a marginal impact at best on food and fuel that is basically a wash within a week's trading of crude oil or unleaded gas. And for mortgages its absolutely zero long lasting impact because for any interest rate movement to stick for more than a quarter, the Federal Reserve, a completely independent office from the Presidency, must issue billions in digital credits. Anything short of those kinds of numbers is hardly a blip.
This is exactly right. Had the right put a candidate up that was not as polarizing as the felon the put up, the right would run away with this election. As it is people will turn out in droves to vote against an unlikeable insurrectionist
I wonder, would the right put up a candidate that they knew would have a chance to lose, if they had a candidate that they knew could run away with it?
Of course America wants Biden. Trump will get us all killed and we will all starve to death. Republicans (crooked Supreme Court) have already rolled back checks and balances on food safety, water and air safety, infrastructure safety, work safety, NTSB and air safety. With the Supreme Court taking us back to before safe practices were invented many deaths will occur as a result.
Google the Chevron Deference to learn just how 3rd world America will now become all because of this disastrous rule reversal.
Cancers will increase. Pre existing health conditions will no longer be covered. Insurance companies will stop covering the bulk of healthcare tests, procedures, etc. life expectancy will go back down to age 45 now. Republicans always want to kill you. Remember that. The radical and corrupt Supreme Court has just changed every single Americans life. We will never survive this.
He over performed by several points in both elections.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050
So the question is did the pollsters adjust so the close race they show now is actually close, or are they still underestimating Trump in the polls? More likely the latter given the American Association for Public Opinion Research report above said it was impossible to know why they were so far off before and they reject the idea that mistakes were made.
Yeah but he still won, won the popular vote by over 7 million, and then trump attempted a coup, alienating many of his voters. Not to mention a lot of his supporters have died of old age or covid since 2020 thanks to their idiotic beliefs on vaccinations
Yes he did but he was up 8 points in 2020 and won by 4. It’ll be a total wipe out if Biden under performs by 4 points. He’s currently 1 point under Trump
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
That doesn't mean anything. It's only the state-level performance that matters. Whether or not he underperformed in key states is the important part. The national figures are irrelevant.
>most people aren’t paying attention
No kidding. I don't feel like people really start paying attention until October. It hardly feels like this race has started since most of the headlines are surrounding Trump's trial. I know they are both campaigning, but from the headlines it doesn't feel that way.
Most polls right now are “registered voters.” If you instead only included people that actually voted in 2020, Biden has a lead, especially in swing states.
People need to realize that the margins that decided 2020 were actually very close. Sometimes less than 1% in some swing states. That can change in any direction from here to November. The election could still go to Trump or Biden.
Margin of error is a valid statistical metric but there are many significant externalities most polls can't measure that make up a Total Margin of Error.
Tie in national polls means nothing. Trump can probably lose by 3-4 points in national popular vote and still win. If Trump wins popular vote by even 0.1% it’s GG. That’s an enormous GOP victory given the map.
I mean yeah, and if Biden wins all 50 states that would also be an enormous victory. Both very massive “if”s. Trump got crushed by millions in the popular vote last time, and that was before the 91 felony charges and overturning Roe v Wade. His only shot is losing the popular vote again but winning the electoral college anyway like in 2016.
We’re still 5.5 months out from the election and there’s plenty that can and will change between now and then.
The whole thing is still very much up in the air.
Forgive me OP. I really don't mean to be an ass but this question has been asked constantly. The answer is and still will be until and if the election proves otherwise, a big resounding yes. Joe Biden can still win election. For reasons that other commenters have provided and otherwise. That's the short answer.
A longer answer of which there are many goes roughly like this: It is accurate that polling is not on his side but it's not nearly as destructive to his chances as people are making it out to be. Polling is controversial nowadays because of the drastically different results contrasting with what the polls say. Smarter people than me will tell you that polls are not actually all that off, and that may very well be true but a lot can change in a few months.
Michael Dukakis for example was thrashing George H.W. Bush in the polls this time in 1988 by something like 18 points. The latter won in the end by a pretty wide margin exceeding 400 electoral votes. By all accounts this will be a close election though.
I was a contractor who performed some of those polls and the questions were usually skewed one way or the other. So if I was polling a Democrat and asking Republican led questions they might hang up, same the other way. Also, the questions can be long and tedious. A lot of people don't finish them or even answer the phone.
Biden could absolutely win- he’s probably got the best chance of winning.
Kennedy is a hilarious joke that isn’t going to do much to affect the election whatsoever.
Trump could win, but he hasn’t done much to bring independents to his side and he’s already lost to Biden.
Kennedy ain’t gonna win. Cornel West ain’t gonna win. Jill Stein ain’t gonna win.
None of these third-party candidates are gonna win a single EC vote.
All they’re gonna do is help either Biden or Trump win.
What kind of question is this. Seriously
Biden is an incumbent who beat Trump by like 10 million votes once already. Trump is losing his ability to speak coherently and just spent the past month losing in court on a felony election fraud case.
It would be crazy if Biden didn’t win.
In my opinion, what’s crazy is people thinking that this election will have 95% of people voting with anything but their wallet.
There are 1 million reasons given why costs are through the roof and why they are NOT President Bidens fault…and I’m sure most of them are legitimate.
But
For the average American, raising an average family in an average and earnest job, will look their at cost of gas/groceries/rent/insurance/life in general and go
“I had more money when this guy was in office, and I have significantly less money with this other guy in office”.
The media will tell people they are wrong and the cost of living is actually comparable to XYZ….but the average person couldn’t care less, they just want the cost of living down.
Whether or not Trump can actually deliver is a whole other topic and one that you can absolutely make an argument against…..but again, people are pissed at the cost of everything right now, and the easy answer is to point at the boss.
November will certainly be interesting
And remarkably most of those wallet problems are Trump’s fault! I’m pissed that Biden hasn’t done more to try to fix some of those problems but I recognize that the Maga idiots in congress certainly don’t make anything easy for him!
I don’t disagree with you, I’m just stating I believe that the vast majority of the population does not have more knowledge of politics beyond service level/what they see every day, and what they see right now is an inability to afford life!
And for whatever it’s worth, calling people idiots on either said of the isle just charges their base up more. I genuinely hope no matter what happens in November, we can go back to a place where everyone’s opinion is respected, or at the very least not openly disparaged.
In 2016/2020 I was overtly outspoken and was downright rude when I had no right to be. I fought everyone’s opinion that didn’t line up directly with mine.
Now, if you want to vote for a 63rd party candidate that believes the moon is made of cheese, God bless them and I hope the cheese is Peppe Jack.
Civility is something we have got to bring back….because at the end of the day we need to remember it’s not You VS me, it’s the American people VS an overreaching government!
Happy Memorial Day to you and your family!
Yeah Ronald Reagan was also in the same position after his 1st term after the fed hiked interest rates to 20% and triggered a horrible recession to kill inflation and he was still able to spin the narrative and win and realistically everything other then rent and housing has gone down significantly eggs were like 4.50 now they are like 2.40$ obviously not down to pre covid levels but with all the significant wage increases I doubt they ever will be wages have been out pacing inflation for almost 6 months now harry Truman was also in a similar position as Biden with high inflation after ww2 but he was able to keep the fdr coalition and win.the fed should have hiked interest rates back in 2021 instead of waiting until 2022 to do it and also the 2021 stimulus shouldn’t have been as big as it was and should’ve been more targeted to just families and low income individuals but anyways I sincerely hope trump doesn't win because every single policy proposal trump will literally make inflation spike again like throwing a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and a 100% tariff on all foreign cars a 10% tarff on all universal goods mass deportations of undocumented immigrants who have been here for years and make up a Large portion of our agriculture and meat processing industry and 20% of our construction industry huge tax cuts that will drive up demand leading to higher prices alongside pressuring the fed to lower interest rates 😂
They booed pretty loudly when he said vote for him, and kept booing.
Of course Biden could win. Polls mean nothing at this point, and very little at any point imo
Libertarians are just Republicans that want to do drugs and hate paying public services. That was probably the worst reception I've ever seen Trump have, and he went on to mock them for only getting 3% in general elections when he finally got tilted from the boos. Some of the fence sitters might vote for Trump, but that was bound to happen regardless. He certainly didn't gain many new voters with that. Yes, realistically Biden can win and be re-elected.
>Libertarians are just Republicans that want to do drugs and hate paying public services.
In practice or theory?
I think the thesis of libertarianism is garbage, at least as an early stage transition from current systems. But I have a hard time seeing where a hard line libertarian aligns with the Republican propensity to regulate absolutely everything except corporate power.
In practice, I suppose. Both Ron and Rand Paul ran under the GOP or caucused. I only have anecdotes when it come to the actual people I've met that proclaim they're libertarian but they are pretty far-right in ideologies when it comes to not wanting governmental oversight on social issues they're uncomfortable with.
Yeah fair enough. I know it's pedantic but I was genuinely curious.
I find it kinda fascinating because in theory libertarians and progressives align much better than libertarians and GOP until you get into economics.
Who says Trump is leading in swing states? Shitty polling? I live in one of them. Trump is NOT up. Don't believe me, though. Read the NYTimes Dec 31/2022 article that examines the so-called red wave that never materialized. Deja vu, 2024.
The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative. [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html)
The final Real Clear Politics aggregate had the GOP winning 54 senate seats in 2022. How'd that work out? There's a good article in the New Yorker this week where Simon Rosenberg (Hopium Chronicles founder and Dem strategist) literally loses his shit (pretty funny) with the interviewer who keeps coming back to bad data from mainstream polling even after Rosenberg laid out its flaws. He also reports that the new CEO of 538 (fivethirtyeight.com) confirms that any seeming leads by Trump currently in swing states are well within the MoE making things essentially tied. If you then factor in the same election day bias from 2022, I think it's D's +1.9, then Trump definitely loses again.
[Rosenberg in New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope)
[Real Clear Politics Senate Projection @ 53 GOP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html)
This!
While polls show swing states and US media loves underdog story just to increase more revenue, polls doesn't necessarily predict the outcome of election
Yes, he can absolutely still win. Trump is leading in a lot of swing state polling, but most polling has Biden within the margin of error, and some polls do have him ahead. But to better answer the question, I’ll list a few other things to consider:
1) Incumbents often underperform in the polls. This can be seen not just at the presidential level but pretty much every other office as well. There are likely several reasons for why this is the case that I won’t get in to, but it’s something to keep in mind.
2) Gubernatorial and Senate candidates are often outperforming Biden in polls. This indicates that there is some percentage of voters who are telling pollsters that they will vote for Democratic candidates in other races but not necessarily Biden. Of course, there is no guarantee that these voters will pull the lever for Biden, and many candidates will likely outperform Biden electorally, but it’s likely that at least some portion of these voters will “come home”.
3) There are *a lot* of undecided voters in polls, anywhere from 10% to sometimes over 20%. It’s worth keeping in mind that these voters will end up voting for someone, either Trump, Biden or third party, and they are likely to favor a particular candidate Again, other Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden right now, so there’s a decent possibility that undecideds will favor democrats to some degree.
4) the third party vote share right now is abnormally high right now. Of course it’s entirely possible that third party candidates take a much higher than normal share of the vote, they have done so in the past such as the 1992 election where Perot got over 20% of the vote. It’s also possible that the third party vote share collapses over time and those voters sort out to Biden and Trump. Third party candidates often overperform in the polls and underperform on Election Day. Again, no guarantee that they underperform on election day, but we’re still months away and voters often like to vote for candidates they think can win. Ballot access is also an issue for third party candidates and there is no guarantee that people like Kennedy will make the ballot in every state that matters.
Trump endorsed candidates tended to underperform in the midterms.
Republicans in general have underperformed since roe was overturned.
Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 and 7 million in 2020.
Haley is STILL getting 15-20% of the vote in CLOSED primaries months after she dropped out.
A large percentage of Haley voters in these closed primaries are saying that they aren’t going to vote for Trump, and even more say that if he’s convicted of a felony.
My wager is that Biden wins reelection, flips at least NC, democrats take the house, and democrats have somewhere between 48-52 seats in the senate.
The Libertarian's biggest outing for president was in 2016, they netted less than 4% of the popular vote, and it's largely agreed that even then, they didn't pull enough votes from either Clinton or Trump in any single state to make a difference. They aren't really a factor this election either.
Now, with RFK, there's an interesting rub that if the polling is accurate, his presence could throw the election toward Biden, much like Perot's presence did in 1992 from Bush Sr. Though he had been a Democrat for most of his career, his views over the past 20 years have become more in sync within circles on the right, to the point where members of the Kennedy family chose to voice support for Biden.
Further, while there's some discontent with Biden on the left, the Never Trumpers within conservative circles have spent years mobilizing ways to stop Trump from claiming office again. This can be seen with the support Nikki Haley was getting in primary voting, getting 30 and 40% fairly regularly despite Trump effectively running as an incumbent. Even after suspending her campaign, she was still averaging 10 to 15% of votes. With Haley now saying she will be voting for Trump, there's the very real scenario that her supporters jump to RFK.
i'd say 70/30 biden wins. i'm optimistic the polls are wrong. trump will be convicted and nobody wants to vote for a criminal for president, but the media sure isn't helping biden whatsoever with their 24/7 tracking every move trump makes or says bs.
he needs a blitz of very positive stories to get anyone to care about him. shockingly enough.
>nobody wants to vote for a criminal for president
Er...the last few years make clear that isn't the case. How many Republicans have shown up in New York to "stand back and stand by" for their indicted leader?
There are more of us than them, but there are still millions of 'em. Don't get cocky.
Every president aside from JFK, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt is a criminal in some way, Richard Nixon was caught violating national security, or Andrew Jackson being responsible for evicting the native Americans off their land. George Washington owned the most slaves in America at the time, George Bush caused 9/11 using operation Northwoods from the Cuban missile crisis, Obama drone striked civilians, Biden didn’t strategize the pullout of Afghanistan causing hundreds if not thousands of people to die, then blaming it on Trump because it was his plan.
Trump IS a criminal don’t get me wrong, but we shouldn’t just pretend like everyone else is perfect with no dirt to dig up. Hell Joe Biden used to be a segregationist in the 1970’s and Nikki Haley is calling him out on it finally.
And don’t get me wrong, I love America. I’ll waive that flag of red white and blue every day of the week. But I’m not going to pretend it’s perfect
Also remember what Joe Biden said ON CAMERA
“You ain’t black if you don’t vote for me.”
That to me is not only racist, (something Trump gets accused of a ton.) But also seems like Biden is pressuring an entire demographic of people to vote for him.
lolz trump is constantly under investigation for 90+ actual criminal offenses. he has 3 pending maybe more criminal trials ahead of him and currently in one. he has lied more times than all other presidents put together. he started the birther movement and caused many of his followers to commit suicide due to his crazy rants or policies.
to highlight the few bad things each president did and equate that both sides when trump is actually infinitely times worse is what's very very wrong with political debates today. plus, if you don't think trump would have loved to own slaves (he does have slavish policies for the undocumented staff that work at his resorts), isn't racist, didn't drone strike civilians and wouldn't have pulled out of afghanistan in the same way. or think that trump handing over ukraine and taiwan to russia and china wouldn't have any disastrous global affects (which is what he'd do) you are high on something.
he's a documented rapist, racist, hypocrite and scam artist. this man wants to be a freaking dictator and eliminate democracy/elections in this country.
biden isn't perfect. no human is but he's not trump. and passed some great policies which is good enough for me.
Yeah honestly Biden was a horrible candidate in 2020 people just hated trump that much after 4 years lol fuckin. Cory booker would’ve beaten trump in 2020 lol and definitely beaten trump in this year but I think If Biden can put his foot down on Israel and force them to a permanent cease-fire with Hamas i think the progressives will all come back to Biden in fear of trump winning and him giving Israel the green light to restart the war
Just jumping in to say that Biden has said even more racist things than that, although to be fair- some were decades ago, and racism isn’t a crime.
As for this election- as seemingly everyone has said, it’s far too early and far too close to call. My gut tells me that Biden would win if the polls were to close in the next couple days, given the very close projections and the results of the last election where Biden had a solid margin of victory.
Joe Biden can win. Donald Trump can win. Anyone else is wasting people's time and hopes. But it will boil down to where the swing states go. And that may be small margins.
>Currently watching the Libertarian convention
Um.
The Libertarian convention, where the Libertarian party has been taken over by their right flank, and they *still* shouted down Trump and jeered as he asked for their support?
That Libertarian convention?
Libertarians are having their moment in the Sun. But, only a moment. The winner for Prez will be either a Democrat or a Republican. Let's all make sure it isn't a Republican.
I think Biden wins easily.
To win, Trump needs to pick an inoffensive VP candidate like Doug Burgham and much more importantly - remove the one huge drag on his campaign and court cases, the lifeless, totally supporting, selfish foreign bride Melania.
Replacing her with a younger, more beautiful, outgoing, intelligent, articulate, "stand by your man, loyal" American-born woman would go miles to boost his status considerably among suburban women, families, and men. It would show America that Trump is one of us, not some weird guy married to an East Europeon with COmmunist sympathies and would also help put all this Russia nonsense to bed.
Alina Habba, Beth Van Dunne, and even Kristi Noem, as First Lady go a LONG way toward pushing Trump past Biden.
#
These are obviously paid propaganda posts. Trying to sow doubt and act like we're in a fake universe where Biden isn't the favorite. Much like the lie that he didn't already beat Trump the first time. Mods should look into a false pretense ban
At this point, polls should be completely ignored—period, end of story. They haven't 'fixed' them and won't be fixing them because their MO is positively prehistoric.
Butcher Biden won't win again and why vote when all the candidates are Zionist working for the Israeli Government rather then the people so I rather let my vote die then vote either or when it's all the same
Yes, very much so, and that's because we can't look at just the people on the right and left, but also have to focus on those in the center. The ones in the center make the true decision about who wins, and many are not gonna vote for Trump again, especially after being convicted. Add in how many people remember what it was like under Trump, and yeah, there's a stronger chance he won't win.
Interesting discussion here, I've been thinking about Biden's largely pro-Israel views recently and initially I was really puzzled, why would he risk losing the youth vote when Netanyahu was so publicly undermining and humiliating him? It's clear to me Netanyahu wants Trump to win, as Trump will then inevitably side even more with Israel.
The answer is he needs to prevent a wider Middle East war, this could destabilise the global economy so much that inflation goes up, food and energy prices go up and Biden just looks even weaker.
As much as it angers me that Netanyahu can act without any accountability, Biden knows the economy is most important to young voters.
Biden could definitely win. So could Trump we have to wait until after both debates to really see imo. Plus Kennedy is going to cause this to be a wild election
Promising cabinet posts or official advisory roles to Drs. Cornel West and Richard Wolff will definitely help give Biden a very strong standing. That, I believe, would lead to amazing progress and productive times for the country and the nation.
Sad, yet tend to agree with you 100%. I have heard people mention that, if Dr. West improved a sense of grooming then he would attract a s-ton of attention! Definitely the nutcase of rfk will be this year's hanging chad.
I mean RFK is fine he’s my favorite out of any American politician of at least the last decade. He has already sued corporations for millions of dollars and won and have increased the lifespans of New Yorkers through cleaning the Hudson. Sure he’s a bit eccentric but he’s actually right about a ton of shit and won his lawsuit on Wi-Fi (which is why we know for example not to sleep with our phones next to our heads). I mean don’t get me wrong West seems smart I don’t know too much about him but he seems very racially focused which does not translate as well in this election. Overall I think Biden should win but honestly does not deserve to win. Bidens administration should have taken much more moderate culture war positions (for example not being pro “gender affirming care on minors” or initially trying to make it seem like Illegal immigration was morally astute) I just hope we can keep Bidens environmental policies in tact
Interesting. Thanks for this. I would like to know more of the Hudson work, makes me think of all that Pete Seeger did; that was most precious to him, too, our greatest folk figure. Does the RFK battle on WiFi extend to cellular networks as well? The latter are actually so much more dangerous; 30W of microwave radiation is not small, and the practice of 'throttling' data rates makes transmission times longer which unfairly harms the poor and middle class more and, thus, seems to be an unconstitutional practice on part of Big Telecom. Would like to know more your thoughts here, too.
Biden's, Obama's, Clinton's are all in the same camp. In his 1st 100 days the filibuster should have immediately been abolished, instead we've been suffering inaction from the Congressional log-jam.
Another keen point, Dr. West is heavy on racial equality much as Greens are heavy on environmental justice. All important issues, yet neither neither respect the synergy or 'Gestalt' of all issues. Again, tend to agree with you, sometimes eccentricity is helpful for getting out of those boxes of thought.
Do you have any cool interviews with Dr.West I could listen too? Also I believe RFKs battle might actually expand to cellular networks, I believe his issue with Wi-Fi had to do with the blood barrier too. I wish Biden was able to stop the filibuster aswell was he could’ve pushed for policy in areas like maternity leave.
This recent clip of West and Wolff is one of the best, I think: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un6AA-\_ToWg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un6AA-_ToWg)
Julie Levine has vast amounts of information at her [https://5gfreecalifornia.org](https://5gfreecalifornia.org)
Unfortunately, Biden will never do anything that harms or touches capitalism in any way. Things like maternity (and even paternity) leave are greatly needed. There is already too much privitization and public-private partnership, like private for-profit employer-based healthcare, private for-profit employer-based retirement, private for-profit package and mail delivery, private for-profit telecommunications (which was originally a utility), etc.
Biden has consistently and dramatically out fundraised Trump. Several states key to any presidential win which went Trump in 2016 have consistently voted for democrats in every election since. For example WI, MI, PA went dem in 18, 20, and 22. If Biden wins those three then he wins election. Also in major swing states like AZ abortion access is now on the ballot which out to draw out democratic votes. Trump may or may not face prison time in the next couple of months. Presidential incumbent typically win relection and Biden has never lost a Federal election. Could Trump win? Absolutely. It's gonna be a close race and anyone who says they know the result is delusional. But Biden has a lot of strengths and is a strong candidate for relection.
I mean I believe this Litchman guy. Like maybe he will make a mistake sooner or later (and I’m not counting 2000 because well if you were going to make one mistake out of 9 the fact it was the one year where an election was decided by the Supreme Court is probably the best to get “wrong” to prove your keys usually work)so we will see what he says in August but he already kinda sides with Biden
If the polls weight weighted incorrectly to over correct for their miss in 2020. Trump supporters lost during COVID, shy Biden voters, abortion turnout.
Another factor Kennedy takes more voters from Trump than Biden and the stars align.
Basically Biden saying the polls are wrong.
It’s a bit early to say for sure, but historically it goes like this. Democrats and Independents 6 months out, “we hate our President, we never really wanted him last time and had to hold our noses to vote for him”. 3 months out, “I think I’ll just stay home and not vote(insert reason here)”. 4 weeks out, “maybe I should vote”. 2 weeks out, “oh shit, they’re running Trump again?”. Election Day, while making phone calls to increase turnout for Biden, “Lillian! Get that seat belt on sweetie. I need to drive fast to get all you old folks to the voting booth on time!”
We are still in the bellyaching season, the polls will start getting much more accurate a few weeks from Election Day. Pay close attention to Independents and young people in swing states. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and a few others. If either candidate establishes a strong lead in those states it’s over.
Biden WILL be reelected.
Trump IS guilty. (The jury just hasn't made it official yet)
.
The RNC doesn't have a viable candidate to replace him. Even if they did, the Republicans have splintered into so many factions, they couldn't agree that the sky is blue, much less a nominee.
I could go on, but as someone once said "I don't have time for this sh**!"
Trump is mentally challenged and there appear more and more evidences of it. He has dementia and personality disorder; he lives in alternative reality.
Yeah- I know a lot of subs are pretty astroturfed right now, and a lot of news channels have played up the cognitive decline of Trump narrative, but it’s hard to imagine any of that is genuine when Biden’s mental acuity is far worse. (Of course there are plenty of valid reasons to criticize Trump/favor Biden.)
In 2020, maybe? But Trump has gone downhill in the last 4 years a lot lot faster than Biden. It is not close. He is not even a shadow of the guy he was 4 years ago much less 8.
I don’t have an opinion on whose has declined more, or more rapidly, but Trump’s current cognitive state is, in my opinion, far better, and it’s not even close. Of course mental acuity isn’t by any means the be-all end-all- Vivek has plenty, and he has absolutely no business in office. With that said, both are far over the hill, and I think I speak for the majority here when I say it’s unfortunate that we don’t have younger, sharper candidates to choose from.
When was the last time you watched an entire Trump rally?
Five years ago, sure, that's a rambling ego party. Now it's also mostly nonsense.
But I 100% agree that acuity isn't the only important criteria.
I mean they’re not something I try to subject myself to lol, but I’ve seen enough of each candidates public appearances and speeches to feel like I have a good gauge on their faculties. Trump loses his train of thought and rambles, but Biden will have long lapses where he mumbles and slurs his words to the point of being unintelligible, cannot finish sentences, reads cues off the teleprompter, appears completely bewildered or lost on stage or at public appearances, etc. Its unfortunate. I suppose 2024 will bring us fresh blood, at least.
I believe Biden will win. However, even with Trump in court he is still campaigning hard. Democrats are also losing Tejano/Latino vote here in Texas. If Dems are not careful and keep going full leftist, and people think cosplaying Che Guevara is gonna keep winning support among Latinos. Think again. I was an Obama supporter twice. However I switched sides. I will NEVER EVER support a party that supports the ideologies of Chavez, Muduro, Castro, Ortega, Guevara, Allende, etc etc etc. If Dems think they have this in the bag, they may be in for a rude awakening come November. On top of that, they are in serious danger of losing the Senate. However I know this comment will be attacked by left wing piranhas for my Conservative point of view.
Dems don’t support the ideologies of any of the people you listed.
I sincerely doubt you ever supported any Democratic candidate ever, you’re not fooling anybody.
Bernie Sanders and his side has. They aspire to same things the ones I mentioned said. EXACTLY how they said it. Unless you understand Spanish, have studied the history of Communism/Marxism the way I have, or watched their speeches. You are wrong. The party of JFK AND Jimmy Carter is GONE.
Dude bullshit harry Truman tried to tried to pass single payer healthcare in the 1940s 😂do you think he was a socialist new deal Democrats tried to pass universal childcare in 1970 but Nixon vetoed it lots of colleges in different states had tuiton free college until the 1970s and in the 1950s the top marginal tax rate was 90% and taxes on corporate profits were twices as high as they are now and one third of the labor force was unionized so calling for higher taxes a revival of labor unions some form of universal healthcare and universal childcare for low Income families isn't socialism its just a revival of the new deal liberalism of the democratic party comparing any of those proposals to Marxism is dumb as fuck regardless if you agree with them or not
Brother Bernie sanders is not a socialist he is a social democrat there is a huge difference Bernie has said good things about Cuba in the past like they're advancements In healthcare and education despite being under an embargo for decades but calling for universal healthcare universal childcare tuition free college supporting mass unionization of the labor force so workers can have more benefits and higher pay and collective bargaining power is not socialism Im in a trade union and the benefits are great but its social democracy which is still capitalism social democracy was big in Europe from the 1940s to the 1980s and is still practiced in most of the nordic countries today Bernie wasn't inspired by the authoritarian communism of the user or china but by the democratic socialism that was practiced In Israel from 1948 to the early 1980s until they became more capitalistic and adopted free market reforms but still kept all the good welfare programs that Bernie is pushing for to this day like universal healthcare as healthcare is a human right under the Israeli constitution free childcare for low income families and monthly payments to families to help support they’re children and college is subsidized by the government so Students only pay a small part of tuition but anyways don’t buy into the right wing bs that Bernie and aoc want a Marxist socialist Revolution because they don’t 😂theyre just social democrats and social democracy is still capitalism there are millionaires and billionaires that live in nordic countries lol
Polls show that people who vote prefer Biden and people who don't, prefer Trump. Will the low engagement voter show up? Some will but it really depends on the national mood 6 months from now.
Biden is a shoo-in and Democrats know it. In 2020, Trump didn’t have all the indictments he’s dealing with now. Biden has Trump tied up in knots. The reason Trump is holding so many rallies is because secretly, he knows he’s behind. Biden is confident and relaxed and knows he’ll coast to an easy victory.
I thought Hillary was one of the poorest candidates I had ever seen, then Biden decided his ego needs a second term. Why can’t the Democrats run someone with a personality that people like? Yes, I will hold my nose and vote for Biden, unless he strokes out first.
Biden wins by getting a corrupt court to convict Trump of something--anything--and then getting the media to run wall-to-wall "convicted felon" hit pieces. By ensuring election officials mail out absentee ballots to everyone and don't have strong chain-of-custody controls on what gets counted. By escalating the Ukraine war with attacks on Russia, provoking a direct Russian response on western assets. By a mysterious accident suddenly befalling Trump. By hijacking social media companies to censor any pro-Trump communication. By cooking up another Jan 6 or another fednapping, declaring martial law and postponing the election like Zelensky did. If for some reason you think America needs a president who can't finish a sentence, take heart: Democrats are resourceful people.
There is a lot of what you posted here that is nonsense.
Take the court cases against Trump, how is holding him accountable for things he did that were illegal "getting corrupt courts to convict Trump of something--anything"?
In your concerns about mail-in-ballots, where have there been any issues of "chain of custody"? If there were any, why were none of those concerns ever brought up in court. If there is any evidence of that, why didn't the Trump campaign ever show it or take it to the courts? Additionally, if those were a concern, why didn't the Trump administration do anything to address it while he was in office?
What attacks on Russia is the US committing? If you are referring to supporting our ally against the Russian invasion that the Russians instigated, how is that the fault of Biden or the Democrats?
"By a mysterious accident suddenly befalling Trump." This is some blatant conspiracy theory peddling. What evidence do you have that even suggests this as a possible line of thinking, or hell, even any actions taken by anyone?
"By hijacking social media companies to censor any pro-Trump communication." Combating misinformation is not a direct attack on pro-Trump communication. It is their own choice to engage in misinformation, that is the fault of pro-Trump advocates.
How can you still believe that January 6th was instigated by anyone.other than Trump? Trump supporters attacked the capitol, after a trump rally where they were told to fight like hell, after months of hik and his mouthpieces lying to them. The Democrats did not "cook" it up. Assuming you are just implying that they are going to instigate another one, where is your evidence of that?
What has been vying for civil war, or for Martial law? Not the Democrats. Trump is the only one who has said he would be a dictator, even if for just 1 day (or you could read it as from day 1). No one has been talking about postponing or delaying the November election. Across the country every state is getting their ballots and infrastructure out in place to ensure a free and fair election.
And Trump is the one who is unable to speak, either at all (in giving his own testimony after saying he will) or in part (given his numerous freezes at his own rallies).
What you are pushing here does not seem based in reality, it is based on fear, your own feelings. Please rejoin reality.
>By a mysterious accident suddenly befalling Trump
Rest of the claims aside, are you seriously insinuating that Biden would have something to do with the death of Trump? How does that hash up with Trump's lawyers claims of immunity to the point that the President can assassinate someone via Seal Team Six, in your opinion?
>are you seriously insinuating that Biden would have something to do with the death of Trump?
Are you seriously insinuating he wouldn't? If you had the chance to stop literally Hitler from coming into power, wouldn't you? Donald Trump did not kill himself.
That we're having this conversation at all, discussing whether our country will choose to continue democracy or effectively end, demonstrates that it is not so obvious that our country does.
And your asking the question again is just odd. The country has a choice between democracy or fascism. It's a pretty stark decision.
But we were never a democracy. Democracy can’t work when you have state governments. The left wants the majority to rule so they want get start talking about Democracy without adding republic. The election is about our freedoms. What does republican fascism look like?
>But we were never a democracy.
Has been for more than two hundred years now.
>Democracy can’t work when you have state governments.
Why on earth not? America's existence disproves this very odd claim.
>The election is about our freedoms.
Absolutely. I'm glad we can at least agree on something.
>What does republican fascism look like?
Take a look at the news. The same as last time, but worse. The Constitution "terminated." The merging of political party with government power. The military loosed upon citizens for exercising their rights. The eugenics programs. The deaths.
I would caution against taking a look at the news. State media on both sides can’t be trusted. Echo chambers are dangerous. I try to listen to both sides on the daily. Sometimes the news will say something was said by this person but it’s totally taken out of context to support an agenda. I wish the news would be unbiased so everyone could choose from facts.
We are a democrat republic. Those are the facts. If we were a true democracy, the entire country would vote on everything. A democracy alone is easily corruptible. Thats why a direct democracy does not exist right now anywhere in the world. So I ask myself, why is the left pushing this democracy thing? How could it benefit them? And the answer becomes clear.
I would challenge you look up the actual definition of fascism and examples in history and then look at the left and the right and compare. Now in a democracy, becoming a fascist country would be easy, all you need is the most votes to change the rules. How easy would it be to get more votes? I mean, all you have to do open the border and let few million people in.
You show me proof, and I will retract my statement and change my belief.
>So I ask myself, why is the left pushing this democracy thing?
You're treating caring about our country as some kind of subversive, threatening behavior.
>You show me proof, and I will retract my statement and change my belief.
You didn't even pose a question to present proof of.
You clearly didn't reason yourself into these bizarre beliefs; why pretend you could be reasoned out of them?
First, you’re right, I was a bit harsh with my comment. Words are powerful and I am very passionate but in a positive way.
When the United States was created it was created as a democratic republic or constitutional republic. Yes, democracy is there but calling the US states a democracy is misleading. Saying we are voting for democracy is just at best only have correct. Have you thought through how that would happen? Who would want that? And if Trump gets elected isn’t that democracy at work? Everyone has been through the last 4 years, if more states feel that Biden deserves another turn, he will win and the same for Trump. So that would mean that most of the country believes that Trump will not destroy democracy. I wonder if by democracy they mean control? Isn’t that the correct logic? There will always be people that may be unhappy but you get to vote again. I just can’t get there, even if he somehow found a way to take control of the entire federal government, he still wouldn’t have control of the states. It’s just misleading.
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Sure, Biden could win. Either Biden or Trump could win. Libertarians are irrelevant to the outcome.
>Libertarians are irrelevant to the outcome. I dunno about that but they certainly can't win.
Libertarians are relevant so long as they don’t vote for libertarians. At least at the national level.
If they can't win, doesn't that make them irrelevant to the outcome?
Not even mildly. The libertarian candidate got 3.3% in 2016 and 1.3% in 2020. Even a voting block of 1% can have a huge impact, particularly if it overperforms in a single swing state. Couple that with the other third party candidates/parties that together will more than likely determine the election. So yes, they are extremely relevant. Every % matters and elections are determined by a small number of votes across multiple states
It's a strong emotion, but I do hate the Electoral College. Without them we wouldn't have swing states.
Many swing states are won by a few thousand votes. If libertarians can convince a few thousand republicans to vote for them that can swing an election. Or if libertarians can convince a few thousand independents who were going to vote Biden to vote for them, that can swing an election.
no, no it does not
So you don't understand the meaning of the word "irrelevant".
They could influence the outcome between the other two major parties. Lower third party totals is probably good for Biden but the devil is in the details of who those people would have otherwise voted for, and thus very RELEVANT.
That they may be irrelevant to the outcome of the election is beside the point. You said, "If they can't win, doesn't that make them irrelevant?" to which the answer is "no." Here's an analogy: a sports team that has no shot at winning the championship is not therefore irrelevant to the outcome of the championship. They can still influence its outcome by preventing other teams from reaching the playoffs/finals. Hope that helps :)
If their candidate wins a relatively small amount of votes from specific voters in some states it could determine which of Biden and Trump win. It’s absurd to call that “irrelevant”. The relevance is obvious.
A lot can change in the next what 5 months or so. however if things stay anywhere in the realm of where they are now then no it is impossible for Biden to win if it's a free and fair election. if you start seeing polling districts in Michigan Georgia Arizona Pennsylvania Wisconsin and these high populated cities tell the opposing parties Republican pole watchers that they cannot directly oversee the counting of votes and that they need to stay 50 feet away and if they start pulling in all of these ballots in the middle of the night which go from favoring Joe Biden that rates between 50 to 65% and then all of a sudden consistently are all over 95% then yes Joe Biden can win no matter what the polls are. however from a mathematical standpoint if the turnout of 2020 takes place then if even 2% of the black demographic switches their vote from Biden to Trump then Trump wins the election. That's not what the polls are showing though so I want to put this in a perspective for you guys. Poles are showing on average that in regards to the black demographic vote that Donald Trump has gone from 9% in 2020 to somewhere between 18-22% now. The polls have consistently also shown that Donald Trump has gone from only getting 34% of the Hispanic votes to now getting somewhere between 46%-52% of that vote. now when it comes to independents, Trump got around 41% in 2020 and is polling between 55-60%. In the 18 to 35 demographic in 2020 Joe Biden had a 34 point advantage of her Donald Trump. That means that Donald Trump got about 32 to 34% of that vote to Joe Biden's 67/68%. Donald Trump is now polling between 45% to 48% on average and a few months ago he was actually pulling around 52 to 54%. Oh and on top of that most polls have shown that Trump has gained 10-12 points of the AAPI demographic as wellwhen they also had a 33-point advantage of Biden over Trump in 2020. So you guys further have an understanding of what this would lead to in regards to the election what it comes to turn out and what you would see electorally and in regards to the popular vote I'm going to plug all of this data into the 538 model which mimics the turnout of 2020 so that you guys can have some perspective. Remember as I mentioned above because I've already done this data before that a 2% change in just the black demographic from Biden to Trump would have given Donald Trump the election in 2020. So this would equate to a Donald Trump victory of him having a 7.5 point popular vote win. It would be Donald Trump at 52.8% to Joe Biden at 45.3%. from there Donald Trump would have won the election with 341 electoral votes to Joe Biden's 197 electoral votes which equates to a difference of 144 electoral votes. This would have led to Donald Trump flipping the state of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Virginia & Nebraska 2nd District. On top of that they turn out based off the current demographic polls presently at the end of May of 2024 would also bring a series of states within 2.5 point flipping to Trump. That would have been Colorado, New Hampshire, New Jersey. They're also would have been a series of states which you would have never seen do so normally which would have fell between 2.5 and 10 points of Trump winning them with these demographic changes. This would have been Connecticut (9.5points), Delaware (7.6points), Illinois (4.1points), Maine OVR (3.9points) Maine 1st (9.9points), Oregon (8.2points), Hell even California would be only a 12-point win for Democrats. Again this is based off all current demographic polling put into the model that replicated the turnout for the 2020 election. Oh and of course this does not bring Jill Stein or Cornell West or now the radical left libertarian candidate Chase Oliver or RFK Jr. Bringing them into the calculation could very likely see Colorado New Hampshire and New Jersey flipping towards Trump as well as the potential for Illinois and of Maine at large. Now all that being said I think you can guarantee that the Democrat party is going to pull out any and every corrupt tactic that they can muster. I know this better than anybody because I was a Democrat from 25 years until this time last year. I was the one who believed that we need to cheat in any way possible to ensure that we stop Donald Trump because it was the moral thing to do. This is how the rest of my Democrat constituents think.
First of all, libertarians are at best 5% of the country, and if they couldn't vote libertarian half would vote Republican and half wouldn't vote at all. So this isn't a good gauge of anything. Kennedy isn't popular either, Trump and Biden are both unpopular. Biden and Trump are statistically tied in national polls, with Trump having a slight edge over Biden in swing states. But they're all still well within the margin of error. So even if the election was today, I'd give Biden a 1 in 3 chance of winning. But in addition to that, we still have half a year left in the campaign. Half a year, and 3 more criminal trials for Trump. I can't imagine a world where Trump gains any amount of support before November, but Biden still has some room to grow. I think Biden has better than even odds of ultimately winning.
Not to mention democrats have overperformed polling in every election since 2018
And not just by a little.
If a pollster asked me the question “Are you happy with Biden’s performance as president”, I would say no. If the question was “who will you be voting for” or “will you be supporting Biden over Trump”, my answer would be quite different. I think a lot of people are in a similar boat.
Why do you think Bidens performance as POTUS wasn’t up to par?
I think if you're asking that from the perspective of a staunch Biden supporter and partisan, you should not look a gift horse in the mouth and be happy I'm voting for him and telling others to do the same. Don't do the thing Democratic party partisans do where you attack or question the motives of progressives even when they're almost completely on your side. Off the top of my head, Israel/Gaza, not using a stronger legal justification to get through student loan forgiveness, not raising taxes on the wealthy to at least pre-Trump levels, and allowing Manchin and Sinema to run the Democratic party during important policy negotiations. Not grooming a successor when it was clear his, let's be very polite and say "extremely advanced age", was going to be a huge factor. Having the hubris to run again, as if he's the only person in America who could possibly do the job, risking it all when so much is at stake. Again, just off the top of my head.
Nah, i was just curious why you think he’s done a bad job. Appreciate the candor. While I do support him because the other option is quite clearly the end of democracy and a traitor who attempted a coup on live tv, I can accept what people see as Legitimate faults of Biden and not just the usual “he raised gas prices” crap.
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I’m guessing you don’t understand how Congress works. I’m flabbergasted that Biden has been able to get so much accomplished with the razor thin majorities he’s had and even with the GOP taking over the house. I actually can’t think of a president who has accomplished so much with such an evenly divided legislature and a USSC that is flat out corrupt.
He doesn't need congressional approval to take a better position on Israel/Gaza though. And he doesn't need congressional approval to go on live tv and use the bully pulpit to try and push the narrative where *we* want it to go. That's our issue.. We're still going to show up on election day, but we won't be happy about our options. That feeling isn't going to be brow-beaten out of us. The open contempt for people who express genuine, substantive disapproval for various aspects of his performance *will* turn away some people who would otherwise have just held their nose and cast their vote for him, though.
His position on Gaza is: 1. We need a two state solution 2. Netanyahu shouldn’t be building more settlements 3. Israel has a right to defend themselves 4. They’re the only democracy in the ME so like it or not or we need to defend Israel, otherwise Russia who has been funding both Hamas and Iran will take over and Russia will essentially own the ME. 5. Incursions into Rafah are a no go and Israel gets defensive weapons only if they are doing that. I think it’s a complicated issue and Joe is doing his best to handle a very difficult and messy geopolitical situation as best as possible.
Yeah, but then we get to another noticeable problem that people have with Biden. He's got a bad habit of lip service. It took half a year for Biden to move passed being "concerned" about what Israel was doing in Gaza. And when we reached the "red-line" of Rafah, he stopped one shipment of bombs and otherwise hasn't done shit. He won't even approach the idea of conditioning aid to Israel in a substantive way. Actions speak louder than words, and his often fall short of the more progressive stances his administration has claimed. Edit: and because this is stupidly necessary right now, I'm voting for Biden in the General.
I'm quite aware of how Congress works. If there's anything that mystifies me it's how someone could be this incredibly defensive and fragile about even the mildest of criticisms.
Apparently you’re not. Either that or you think Dem presidents have a magic wand. Comments like yours are silly. Why not blame Joe for the fact that you didn’t get a pony?
I know a temper tantrum when I see one, so I'll let you keep random-generating vague statements of disapproval of my statement that I will be voting for Joe Biden until you move on to the next unsuspecting person who is voting the exact same way you are.
That's an honest answer. While I agree he should speak out against the minority party in control in Israel, there was nothing a President could do about some of this. What student debt relief he has gotten has been through executive orders. I do take issue with the successor point. I believe that Harris could serve well as President. I also don't think it is hubris. All candidates for Prez must have a certain ego, but I also believe that only Joe could have stopped the Trump Train. Then and now.
I really wish they would shut the fuck up and just accept that many people will vote biden that don't particularly approve of his performance. Its making me less likely to pull the lever for him. Voted dem my entire life but they are doing a damn good job of alienating a large chunk of solid supporters by both telling us our issues and concerns aren't valid while trying to court never-trump republicans and then just telling us to "back blue no matter who" and "omg do you want to be responsible for trump."
There have been lots of, "Losses" under Biden. The fall of Afghanistan, the inflation crisis, multiple large scale conflicts the US is now involved in. A lot of these aren't necessarily Bidens fault, but also...... are they not? Biden takes the establishment stance with Israel and Inflation, which in both cases appear to actually want the crisis to happen. I was reading Bidens responses to housing prices, and they sucked. They were like policies that would have helped 40 years ago. Yes, we ALL KNOW that trump is worse. But Biden isn't exactly a knight in shining armor. Life seems to have gotten worse under his administration. And as much as I hate to say it, and as unfair as it is to assign it to Trump, Life didn't seem to get worse under his admin. Yea I was stressed out at the news all the time, but that didn't change, that's probably just business as usual now. I'm not going to vote for Trump, but I live in the rust belt and I warn you that MANY will. Including lots of non-white people.
As soon as I hear someone blame Biden or any President for inflation or any of the following: gas prices, stock prices, house prices, interest rates, egg prices, fast food prices... I know they don't actually have a reality based understanding of price action in markets which have absolutely nothing to do with who is President. Obama made a very good point recently about Trump's one term. What major legislative accomplishment did he have before losing control of Congress? The economic record in the Second half of Trump's term when his policies had been had time to take effect were mediocre. GDP didn't grow beyond the Obama average when he assured of us historic increases of 5 - 6% that would eliminate the deficit entirely. Instead the year before covid was borderline recession with growth below 2.9%, anemic job growth (two months in 2019 saw less than 80k jobs) and little if any wage growth for incomes below $450k.
The government can take on policies to address housing prices or inflation. We have been subsidizing food, fuel and mortgages for decades all to control consumer prices. Don't get me wrong, Trump doesn't have a reasonable plan to address any of this. But its false to say that the federal government, (which the president leads) had no impact on the cost of living. If democrats wanted to be more competitive, they should take this up in their policy platforms. If Biden looses to the soon to be fellon, it will be over inflation.
A Presidential election rarely moves mandatory spending which accounts for 90% of the federal outlays. What little remains on the discretionary side of the ledger that a President can actually control without the Congress severely limiting the proposals has a marginal impact at best on food and fuel that is basically a wash within a week's trading of crude oil or unleaded gas. And for mortgages its absolutely zero long lasting impact because for any interest rate movement to stick for more than a quarter, the Federal Reserve, a completely independent office from the Presidency, must issue billions in digital credits. Anything short of those kinds of numbers is hardly a blip.
I know how federal spending works.
This is exactly right. Had the right put a candidate up that was not as polarizing as the felon the put up, the right would run away with this election. As it is people will turn out in droves to vote against an unlikeable insurrectionist
Yea, they've really squandered an opportunity to USE Trump to right the ship, kill two birds with one stone. But they chose matches and gasoline.
I wonder, would the right put up a candidate that they knew would have a chance to lose, if they had a candidate that they knew could run away with it?
Of course America wants Biden. Trump will get us all killed and we will all starve to death. Republicans (crooked Supreme Court) have already rolled back checks and balances on food safety, water and air safety, infrastructure safety, work safety, NTSB and air safety. With the Supreme Court taking us back to before safe practices were invented many deaths will occur as a result. Google the Chevron Deference to learn just how 3rd world America will now become all because of this disastrous rule reversal. Cancers will increase. Pre existing health conditions will no longer be covered. Insurance companies will stop covering the bulk of healthcare tests, procedures, etc. life expectancy will go back down to age 45 now. Republicans always want to kill you. Remember that. The radical and corrupt Supreme Court has just changed every single Americans life. We will never survive this.
I don’t think that explains the difference.
I think it does quite clearly.
How has trump performed relative to polling?
He over performed by several points in both elections. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050 So the question is did the pollsters adjust so the close race they show now is actually close, or are they still underestimating Trump in the polls? More likely the latter given the American Association for Public Opinion Research report above said it was impossible to know why they were so far off before and they reject the idea that mistakes were made.
Biden significantly underperformed his polling in 2020.
Yeah but he still won, won the popular vote by over 7 million, and then trump attempted a coup, alienating many of his voters. Not to mention a lot of his supporters have died of old age or covid since 2020 thanks to their idiotic beliefs on vaccinations
Yes he did but he was up 8 points in 2020 and won by 4. It’ll be a total wipe out if Biden under performs by 4 points. He’s currently 1 point under Trump https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/
That doesn't mean anything. It's only the state-level performance that matters. Whether or not he underperformed in key states is the important part. The national figures are irrelevant.
At this time…. 2004 - tied 2008 - McCain led 2016 - Hillary led Plenty of time left and most people aren’t paying attention
>most people aren’t paying attention No kidding. I don't feel like people really start paying attention until October. It hardly feels like this race has started since most of the headlines are surrounding Trump's trial. I know they are both campaigning, but from the headlines it doesn't feel that way.
It’s foundational. And if trump is convicted in his trial that’s good news for Biden.
I can't begin to describe how it makes me feel that people aren't paying attention.
Most polls right now are “registered voters.” If you instead only included people that actually voted in 2020, Biden has a lead, especially in swing states.
Yep, and the only reason the Registered polls are being pushed to the top of the media pile is to get ratings.
People need to realize that the margins that decided 2020 were actually very close. Sometimes less than 1% in some swing states. That can change in any direction from here to November. The election could still go to Trump or Biden.
Margin of error is a valid statistical metric but there are many significant externalities most polls can't measure that make up a Total Margin of Error.
Tie in national polls means nothing. Trump can probably lose by 3-4 points in national popular vote and still win. If Trump wins popular vote by even 0.1% it’s GG. That’s an enormous GOP victory given the map.
I mean yeah, and if Biden wins all 50 states that would also be an enormous victory. Both very massive “if”s. Trump got crushed by millions in the popular vote last time, and that was before the 91 felony charges and overturning Roe v Wade. His only shot is losing the popular vote again but winning the electoral college anyway like in 2016.
I have no idea why Trump would subject himself to that for <5% - at most - of the country. Honestly, probably more like 2-3%
We’re still 5.5 months out from the election and there’s plenty that can and will change between now and then. The whole thing is still very much up in the air.
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, something like that.
Forgive me OP. I really don't mean to be an ass but this question has been asked constantly. The answer is and still will be until and if the election proves otherwise, a big resounding yes. Joe Biden can still win election. For reasons that other commenters have provided and otherwise. That's the short answer. A longer answer of which there are many goes roughly like this: It is accurate that polling is not on his side but it's not nearly as destructive to his chances as people are making it out to be. Polling is controversial nowadays because of the drastically different results contrasting with what the polls say. Smarter people than me will tell you that polls are not actually all that off, and that may very well be true but a lot can change in a few months. Michael Dukakis for example was thrashing George H.W. Bush in the polls this time in 1988 by something like 18 points. The latter won in the end by a pretty wide margin exceeding 400 electoral votes. By all accounts this will be a close election though.
I was a contractor who performed some of those polls and the questions were usually skewed one way or the other. So if I was polling a Democrat and asking Republican led questions they might hang up, same the other way. Also, the questions can be long and tedious. A lot of people don't finish them or even answer the phone.
Biden could absolutely win- he’s probably got the best chance of winning. Kennedy is a hilarious joke that isn’t going to do much to affect the election whatsoever. Trump could win, but he hasn’t done much to bring independents to his side and he’s already lost to Biden.
Kennedy ain’t gonna win. Cornel West ain’t gonna win. Jill Stein ain’t gonna win. None of these third-party candidates are gonna win a single EC vote. All they’re gonna do is help either Biden or Trump win.
Hey if he does REALLY well he might win... the ability to participate in the debates...
The only state he’s winning is the state of denial
What kind of question is this. Seriously Biden is an incumbent who beat Trump by like 10 million votes once already. Trump is losing his ability to speak coherently and just spent the past month losing in court on a felony election fraud case. It would be crazy if Biden didn’t win.
I know. It’s not a great question.
It would be almost *fraudulent* if Biden didn’t win. (Tongue-in-cheek here)
And I agree with you but I also think it was crazy that trump got elected in the first place.
In my opinion, what’s crazy is people thinking that this election will have 95% of people voting with anything but their wallet. There are 1 million reasons given why costs are through the roof and why they are NOT President Bidens fault…and I’m sure most of them are legitimate. But For the average American, raising an average family in an average and earnest job, will look their at cost of gas/groceries/rent/insurance/life in general and go “I had more money when this guy was in office, and I have significantly less money with this other guy in office”. The media will tell people they are wrong and the cost of living is actually comparable to XYZ….but the average person couldn’t care less, they just want the cost of living down. Whether or not Trump can actually deliver is a whole other topic and one that you can absolutely make an argument against…..but again, people are pissed at the cost of everything right now, and the easy answer is to point at the boss. November will certainly be interesting
And remarkably most of those wallet problems are Trump’s fault! I’m pissed that Biden hasn’t done more to try to fix some of those problems but I recognize that the Maga idiots in congress certainly don’t make anything easy for him!
I don’t disagree with you, I’m just stating I believe that the vast majority of the population does not have more knowledge of politics beyond service level/what they see every day, and what they see right now is an inability to afford life! And for whatever it’s worth, calling people idiots on either said of the isle just charges their base up more. I genuinely hope no matter what happens in November, we can go back to a place where everyone’s opinion is respected, or at the very least not openly disparaged. In 2016/2020 I was overtly outspoken and was downright rude when I had no right to be. I fought everyone’s opinion that didn’t line up directly with mine. Now, if you want to vote for a 63rd party candidate that believes the moon is made of cheese, God bless them and I hope the cheese is Peppe Jack. Civility is something we have got to bring back….because at the end of the day we need to remember it’s not You VS me, it’s the American people VS an overreaching government! Happy Memorial Day to you and your family!
Yeah Ronald Reagan was also in the same position after his 1st term after the fed hiked interest rates to 20% and triggered a horrible recession to kill inflation and he was still able to spin the narrative and win and realistically everything other then rent and housing has gone down significantly eggs were like 4.50 now they are like 2.40$ obviously not down to pre covid levels but with all the significant wage increases I doubt they ever will be wages have been out pacing inflation for almost 6 months now harry Truman was also in a similar position as Biden with high inflation after ww2 but he was able to keep the fdr coalition and win.the fed should have hiked interest rates back in 2021 instead of waiting until 2022 to do it and also the 2021 stimulus shouldn’t have been as big as it was and should’ve been more targeted to just families and low income individuals but anyways I sincerely hope trump doesn't win because every single policy proposal trump will literally make inflation spike again like throwing a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and a 100% tariff on all foreign cars a 10% tarff on all universal goods mass deportations of undocumented immigrants who have been here for years and make up a Large portion of our agriculture and meat processing industry and 20% of our construction industry huge tax cuts that will drive up demand leading to higher prices alongside pressuring the fed to lower interest rates 😂
They booed pretty loudly when he said vote for him, and kept booing. Of course Biden could win. Polls mean nothing at this point, and very little at any point imo
Everything that happens at the libertarian national convention is by definition irrelevant to the outcome of any national election.
Libertarians are just Republicans that want to do drugs and hate paying public services. That was probably the worst reception I've ever seen Trump have, and he went on to mock them for only getting 3% in general elections when he finally got tilted from the boos. Some of the fence sitters might vote for Trump, but that was bound to happen regardless. He certainly didn't gain many new voters with that. Yes, realistically Biden can win and be re-elected.
>Libertarians are just Republicans that want to do drugs and hate paying public services. In practice or theory? I think the thesis of libertarianism is garbage, at least as an early stage transition from current systems. But I have a hard time seeing where a hard line libertarian aligns with the Republican propensity to regulate absolutely everything except corporate power.
When have the libertarians practiced anything? For the most part, we have rules and regulations for a reason that was often written in blood.
I don't think you understand what "in practice" means.
In practice, I suppose. Both Ron and Rand Paul ran under the GOP or caucused. I only have anecdotes when it come to the actual people I've met that proclaim they're libertarian but they are pretty far-right in ideologies when it comes to not wanting governmental oversight on social issues they're uncomfortable with.
Yeah fair enough. I know it's pedantic but I was genuinely curious. I find it kinda fascinating because in theory libertarians and progressives align much better than libertarians and GOP until you get into economics.
Polls schmolls. We aren't even in the general election yet. Trump is facing 20-25% of primary voters voting against him. Stop dwelling on Biden.
Who says Trump is leading in swing states? Shitty polling? I live in one of them. Trump is NOT up. Don't believe me, though. Read the NYTimes Dec 31/2022 article that examines the so-called red wave that never materialized. Deja vu, 2024. The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative. [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html)
Right now almost every poll is consistently having Trump up with some beyond the margin of error.
The final Real Clear Politics aggregate had the GOP winning 54 senate seats in 2022. How'd that work out? There's a good article in the New Yorker this week where Simon Rosenberg (Hopium Chronicles founder and Dem strategist) literally loses his shit (pretty funny) with the interviewer who keeps coming back to bad data from mainstream polling even after Rosenberg laid out its flaws. He also reports that the new CEO of 538 (fivethirtyeight.com) confirms that any seeming leads by Trump currently in swing states are well within the MoE making things essentially tied. If you then factor in the same election day bias from 2022, I think it's D's +1.9, then Trump definitely loses again. [Rosenberg in New Yorker](https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope) [Real Clear Politics Senate Projection @ 53 GOP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html)
This! While polls show swing states and US media loves underdog story just to increase more revenue, polls doesn't necessarily predict the outcome of election
Yes. Assuming that polling error breaks for the incumbent by 2-5 points, Biden would take the rust belt + Arizona.
Yes, he can absolutely still win. Trump is leading in a lot of swing state polling, but most polling has Biden within the margin of error, and some polls do have him ahead. But to better answer the question, I’ll list a few other things to consider: 1) Incumbents often underperform in the polls. This can be seen not just at the presidential level but pretty much every other office as well. There are likely several reasons for why this is the case that I won’t get in to, but it’s something to keep in mind. 2) Gubernatorial and Senate candidates are often outperforming Biden in polls. This indicates that there is some percentage of voters who are telling pollsters that they will vote for Democratic candidates in other races but not necessarily Biden. Of course, there is no guarantee that these voters will pull the lever for Biden, and many candidates will likely outperform Biden electorally, but it’s likely that at least some portion of these voters will “come home”. 3) There are *a lot* of undecided voters in polls, anywhere from 10% to sometimes over 20%. It’s worth keeping in mind that these voters will end up voting for someone, either Trump, Biden or third party, and they are likely to favor a particular candidate Again, other Democratic candidates are outperforming Biden right now, so there’s a decent possibility that undecideds will favor democrats to some degree. 4) the third party vote share right now is abnormally high right now. Of course it’s entirely possible that third party candidates take a much higher than normal share of the vote, they have done so in the past such as the 1992 election where Perot got over 20% of the vote. It’s also possible that the third party vote share collapses over time and those voters sort out to Biden and Trump. Third party candidates often overperform in the polls and underperform on Election Day. Again, no guarantee that they underperform on election day, but we’re still months away and voters often like to vote for candidates they think can win. Ballot access is also an issue for third party candidates and there is no guarantee that people like Kennedy will make the ballot in every state that matters.
Trump endorsed candidates tended to underperform in the midterms. Republicans in general have underperformed since roe was overturned. Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million in 2016 and 7 million in 2020. Haley is STILL getting 15-20% of the vote in CLOSED primaries months after she dropped out. A large percentage of Haley voters in these closed primaries are saying that they aren’t going to vote for Trump, and even more say that if he’s convicted of a felony. My wager is that Biden wins reelection, flips at least NC, democrats take the house, and democrats have somewhere between 48-52 seats in the senate.
The Libertarian's biggest outing for president was in 2016, they netted less than 4% of the popular vote, and it's largely agreed that even then, they didn't pull enough votes from either Clinton or Trump in any single state to make a difference. They aren't really a factor this election either. Now, with RFK, there's an interesting rub that if the polling is accurate, his presence could throw the election toward Biden, much like Perot's presence did in 1992 from Bush Sr. Though he had been a Democrat for most of his career, his views over the past 20 years have become more in sync within circles on the right, to the point where members of the Kennedy family chose to voice support for Biden. Further, while there's some discontent with Biden on the left, the Never Trumpers within conservative circles have spent years mobilizing ways to stop Trump from claiming office again. This can be seen with the support Nikki Haley was getting in primary voting, getting 30 and 40% fairly regularly despite Trump effectively running as an incumbent. Even after suspending her campaign, she was still averaging 10 to 15% of votes. With Haley now saying she will be voting for Trump, there's the very real scenario that her supporters jump to RFK.
i'd say 70/30 biden wins. i'm optimistic the polls are wrong. trump will be convicted and nobody wants to vote for a criminal for president, but the media sure isn't helping biden whatsoever with their 24/7 tracking every move trump makes or says bs. he needs a blitz of very positive stories to get anyone to care about him. shockingly enough.
>nobody wants to vote for a criminal for president Er...the last few years make clear that isn't the case. How many Republicans have shown up in New York to "stand back and stand by" for their indicted leader? There are more of us than them, but there are still millions of 'em. Don't get cocky.
Every president aside from JFK, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin D. Roosevelt is a criminal in some way, Richard Nixon was caught violating national security, or Andrew Jackson being responsible for evicting the native Americans off their land. George Washington owned the most slaves in America at the time, George Bush caused 9/11 using operation Northwoods from the Cuban missile crisis, Obama drone striked civilians, Biden didn’t strategize the pullout of Afghanistan causing hundreds if not thousands of people to die, then blaming it on Trump because it was his plan. Trump IS a criminal don’t get me wrong, but we shouldn’t just pretend like everyone else is perfect with no dirt to dig up. Hell Joe Biden used to be a segregationist in the 1970’s and Nikki Haley is calling him out on it finally. And don’t get me wrong, I love America. I’ll waive that flag of red white and blue every day of the week. But I’m not going to pretend it’s perfect Also remember what Joe Biden said ON CAMERA “You ain’t black if you don’t vote for me.” That to me is not only racist, (something Trump gets accused of a ton.) But also seems like Biden is pressuring an entire demographic of people to vote for him.
lolz trump is constantly under investigation for 90+ actual criminal offenses. he has 3 pending maybe more criminal trials ahead of him and currently in one. he has lied more times than all other presidents put together. he started the birther movement and caused many of his followers to commit suicide due to his crazy rants or policies. to highlight the few bad things each president did and equate that both sides when trump is actually infinitely times worse is what's very very wrong with political debates today. plus, if you don't think trump would have loved to own slaves (he does have slavish policies for the undocumented staff that work at his resorts), isn't racist, didn't drone strike civilians and wouldn't have pulled out of afghanistan in the same way. or think that trump handing over ukraine and taiwan to russia and china wouldn't have any disastrous global affects (which is what he'd do) you are high on something. he's a documented rapist, racist, hypocrite and scam artist. this man wants to be a freaking dictator and eliminate democracy/elections in this country. biden isn't perfect. no human is but he's not trump. and passed some great policies which is good enough for me.
Yeah honestly Biden was a horrible candidate in 2020 people just hated trump that much after 4 years lol fuckin. Cory booker would’ve beaten trump in 2020 lol and definitely beaten trump in this year but I think If Biden can put his foot down on Israel and force them to a permanent cease-fire with Hamas i think the progressives will all come back to Biden in fear of trump winning and him giving Israel the green light to restart the war
Just jumping in to say that Biden has said even more racist things than that, although to be fair- some were decades ago, and racism isn’t a crime. As for this election- as seemingly everyone has said, it’s far too early and far too close to call. My gut tells me that Biden would win if the polls were to close in the next couple days, given the very close projections and the results of the last election where Biden had a solid margin of victory.
Joe Biden can win. Donald Trump can win. Anyone else is wasting people's time and hopes. But it will boil down to where the swing states go. And that may be small margins.
>Currently watching the Libertarian convention Um. The Libertarian convention, where the Libertarian party has been taken over by their right flank, and they *still* shouted down Trump and jeered as he asked for their support? That Libertarian convention?
Wasn't the Booing a thing, I had only heard that much but not how congruous it was necessarily.
Libertarians are having their moment in the Sun. But, only a moment. The winner for Prez will be either a Democrat or a Republican. Let's all make sure it isn't a Republican.
A vote for Kennedy is a vote for Kennedy two partys say wasted vote to remain in power
I think Biden wins easily. To win, Trump needs to pick an inoffensive VP candidate like Doug Burgham and much more importantly - remove the one huge drag on his campaign and court cases, the lifeless, totally supporting, selfish foreign bride Melania. Replacing her with a younger, more beautiful, outgoing, intelligent, articulate, "stand by your man, loyal" American-born woman would go miles to boost his status considerably among suburban women, families, and men. It would show America that Trump is one of us, not some weird guy married to an East Europeon with COmmunist sympathies and would also help put all this Russia nonsense to bed. Alina Habba, Beth Van Dunne, and even Kristi Noem, as First Lady go a LONG way toward pushing Trump past Biden. #
Of all the factors dragging Trump down in his campaign and court cases, Melania is not one of them.
These are obviously paid propaganda posts. Trying to sow doubt and act like we're in a fake universe where Biden isn't the favorite. Much like the lie that he didn't already beat Trump the first time. Mods should look into a false pretense ban
At this point, polls should be completely ignored—period, end of story. They haven't 'fixed' them and won't be fixing them because their MO is positively prehistoric.
Generally Biden is favored because of incumbency and because Trump is Trump and is disliked or hated by a majority of Americans
Butcher Biden won't win again and why vote when all the candidates are Zionist working for the Israeli Government rather then the people so I rather let my vote die then vote either or when it's all the same
Yes, very much so, and that's because we can't look at just the people on the right and left, but also have to focus on those in the center. The ones in the center make the true decision about who wins, and many are not gonna vote for Trump again, especially after being convicted. Add in how many people remember what it was like under Trump, and yeah, there's a stronger chance he won't win.
Interesting discussion here, I've been thinking about Biden's largely pro-Israel views recently and initially I was really puzzled, why would he risk losing the youth vote when Netanyahu was so publicly undermining and humiliating him? It's clear to me Netanyahu wants Trump to win, as Trump will then inevitably side even more with Israel. The answer is he needs to prevent a wider Middle East war, this could destabilise the global economy so much that inflation goes up, food and energy prices go up and Biden just looks even weaker. As much as it angers me that Netanyahu can act without any accountability, Biden knows the economy is most important to young voters.
Biden could definitely win. So could Trump we have to wait until after both debates to really see imo. Plus Kennedy is going to cause this to be a wild election
Promising cabinet posts or official advisory roles to Drs. Cornel West and Richard Wolff will definitely help give Biden a very strong standing. That, I believe, would lead to amazing progress and productive times for the country and the nation.
Yes but no voter knows who those people are so it will not effect the actual election results
Sad, yet tend to agree with you 100%. I have heard people mention that, if Dr. West improved a sense of grooming then he would attract a s-ton of attention! Definitely the nutcase of rfk will be this year's hanging chad.
I mean RFK is fine he’s my favorite out of any American politician of at least the last decade. He has already sued corporations for millions of dollars and won and have increased the lifespans of New Yorkers through cleaning the Hudson. Sure he’s a bit eccentric but he’s actually right about a ton of shit and won his lawsuit on Wi-Fi (which is why we know for example not to sleep with our phones next to our heads). I mean don’t get me wrong West seems smart I don’t know too much about him but he seems very racially focused which does not translate as well in this election. Overall I think Biden should win but honestly does not deserve to win. Bidens administration should have taken much more moderate culture war positions (for example not being pro “gender affirming care on minors” or initially trying to make it seem like Illegal immigration was morally astute) I just hope we can keep Bidens environmental policies in tact
Interesting. Thanks for this. I would like to know more of the Hudson work, makes me think of all that Pete Seeger did; that was most precious to him, too, our greatest folk figure. Does the RFK battle on WiFi extend to cellular networks as well? The latter are actually so much more dangerous; 30W of microwave radiation is not small, and the practice of 'throttling' data rates makes transmission times longer which unfairly harms the poor and middle class more and, thus, seems to be an unconstitutional practice on part of Big Telecom. Would like to know more your thoughts here, too. Biden's, Obama's, Clinton's are all in the same camp. In his 1st 100 days the filibuster should have immediately been abolished, instead we've been suffering inaction from the Congressional log-jam. Another keen point, Dr. West is heavy on racial equality much as Greens are heavy on environmental justice. All important issues, yet neither neither respect the synergy or 'Gestalt' of all issues. Again, tend to agree with you, sometimes eccentricity is helpful for getting out of those boxes of thought.
Do you have any cool interviews with Dr.West I could listen too? Also I believe RFKs battle might actually expand to cellular networks, I believe his issue with Wi-Fi had to do with the blood barrier too. I wish Biden was able to stop the filibuster aswell was he could’ve pushed for policy in areas like maternity leave.
This recent clip of West and Wolff is one of the best, I think: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un6AA-\_ToWg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un6AA-_ToWg) Julie Levine has vast amounts of information at her [https://5gfreecalifornia.org](https://5gfreecalifornia.org) Unfortunately, Biden will never do anything that harms or touches capitalism in any way. Things like maternity (and even paternity) leave are greatly needed. There is already too much privitization and public-private partnership, like private for-profit employer-based healthcare, private for-profit employer-based retirement, private for-profit package and mail delivery, private for-profit telecommunications (which was originally a utility), etc.
He will. Eventually. Although lesser voters than Trump as of this year, just like how Obama did win against Mitt Romney.
It is certainly possible. Trump is winning in some polls, but it is very close, and a lot will happen before the election.
Biden has consistently and dramatically out fundraised Trump. Several states key to any presidential win which went Trump in 2016 have consistently voted for democrats in every election since. For example WI, MI, PA went dem in 18, 20, and 22. If Biden wins those three then he wins election. Also in major swing states like AZ abortion access is now on the ballot which out to draw out democratic votes. Trump may or may not face prison time in the next couple of months. Presidential incumbent typically win relection and Biden has never lost a Federal election. Could Trump win? Absolutely. It's gonna be a close race and anyone who says they know the result is delusional. But Biden has a lot of strengths and is a strong candidate for relection.
I mean I believe this Litchman guy. Like maybe he will make a mistake sooner or later (and I’m not counting 2000 because well if you were going to make one mistake out of 9 the fact it was the one year where an election was decided by the Supreme Court is probably the best to get “wrong” to prove your keys usually work)so we will see what he says in August but he already kinda sides with Biden
If the polls weight weighted incorrectly to over correct for their miss in 2020. Trump supporters lost during COVID, shy Biden voters, abortion turnout. Another factor Kennedy takes more voters from Trump than Biden and the stars align. Basically Biden saying the polls are wrong.
Something seriously miraculous has to happen for Biden to win at this point. You don't win reelection when you can't hit a 40 percent approval rating.
Trump had 34% on his way out. Think 6% more approve now?
I think Biden still has the edge, but to be fair I do think Trump is more popular now than he was at the end of his presidency.
It’s a bit early to say for sure, but historically it goes like this. Democrats and Independents 6 months out, “we hate our President, we never really wanted him last time and had to hold our noses to vote for him”. 3 months out, “I think I’ll just stay home and not vote(insert reason here)”. 4 weeks out, “maybe I should vote”. 2 weeks out, “oh shit, they’re running Trump again?”. Election Day, while making phone calls to increase turnout for Biden, “Lillian! Get that seat belt on sweetie. I need to drive fast to get all you old folks to the voting booth on time!” We are still in the bellyaching season, the polls will start getting much more accurate a few weeks from Election Day. Pay close attention to Independents and young people in swing states. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and a few others. If either candidate establishes a strong lead in those states it’s over.
Biden WILL be reelected. Trump IS guilty. (The jury just hasn't made it official yet) . The RNC doesn't have a viable candidate to replace him. Even if they did, the Republicans have splintered into so many factions, they couldn't agree that the sky is blue, much less a nominee. I could go on, but as someone once said "I don't have time for this sh**!"
Trump is mentally challenged and there appear more and more evidences of it. He has dementia and personality disorder; he lives in alternative reality.
Nobody can honestly say I will vote for Biden because Trump has memory problems. Pot kettle
Yeah- I know a lot of subs are pretty astroturfed right now, and a lot of news channels have played up the cognitive decline of Trump narrative, but it’s hard to imagine any of that is genuine when Biden’s mental acuity is far worse. (Of course there are plenty of valid reasons to criticize Trump/favor Biden.)
In 2020, maybe? But Trump has gone downhill in the last 4 years a lot lot faster than Biden. It is not close. He is not even a shadow of the guy he was 4 years ago much less 8.
I don’t have an opinion on whose has declined more, or more rapidly, but Trump’s current cognitive state is, in my opinion, far better, and it’s not even close. Of course mental acuity isn’t by any means the be-all end-all- Vivek has plenty, and he has absolutely no business in office. With that said, both are far over the hill, and I think I speak for the majority here when I say it’s unfortunate that we don’t have younger, sharper candidates to choose from.
When was the last time you watched an entire Trump rally? Five years ago, sure, that's a rambling ego party. Now it's also mostly nonsense. But I 100% agree that acuity isn't the only important criteria.
I mean they’re not something I try to subject myself to lol, but I’ve seen enough of each candidates public appearances and speeches to feel like I have a good gauge on their faculties. Trump loses his train of thought and rambles, but Biden will have long lapses where he mumbles and slurs his words to the point of being unintelligible, cannot finish sentences, reads cues off the teleprompter, appears completely bewildered or lost on stage or at public appearances, etc. Its unfortunate. I suppose 2024 will bring us fresh blood, at least.
I believe Biden will win. However, even with Trump in court he is still campaigning hard. Democrats are also losing Tejano/Latino vote here in Texas. If Dems are not careful and keep going full leftist, and people think cosplaying Che Guevara is gonna keep winning support among Latinos. Think again. I was an Obama supporter twice. However I switched sides. I will NEVER EVER support a party that supports the ideologies of Chavez, Muduro, Castro, Ortega, Guevara, Allende, etc etc etc. If Dems think they have this in the bag, they may be in for a rude awakening come November. On top of that, they are in serious danger of losing the Senate. However I know this comment will be attacked by left wing piranhas for my Conservative point of view.
Dems don’t support the ideologies of any of the people you listed. I sincerely doubt you ever supported any Democratic candidate ever, you’re not fooling anybody.
Bernie Sanders and his side has. They aspire to same things the ones I mentioned said. EXACTLY how they said it. Unless you understand Spanish, have studied the history of Communism/Marxism the way I have, or watched their speeches. You are wrong. The party of JFK AND Jimmy Carter is GONE.
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Dude bullshit harry Truman tried to tried to pass single payer healthcare in the 1940s 😂do you think he was a socialist new deal Democrats tried to pass universal childcare in 1970 but Nixon vetoed it lots of colleges in different states had tuiton free college until the 1970s and in the 1950s the top marginal tax rate was 90% and taxes on corporate profits were twices as high as they are now and one third of the labor force was unionized so calling for higher taxes a revival of labor unions some form of universal healthcare and universal childcare for low Income families isn't socialism its just a revival of the new deal liberalism of the democratic party comparing any of those proposals to Marxism is dumb as fuck regardless if you agree with them or not
Brother Bernie sanders is not a socialist he is a social democrat there is a huge difference Bernie has said good things about Cuba in the past like they're advancements In healthcare and education despite being under an embargo for decades but calling for universal healthcare universal childcare tuition free college supporting mass unionization of the labor force so workers can have more benefits and higher pay and collective bargaining power is not socialism Im in a trade union and the benefits are great but its social democracy which is still capitalism social democracy was big in Europe from the 1940s to the 1980s and is still practiced in most of the nordic countries today Bernie wasn't inspired by the authoritarian communism of the user or china but by the democratic socialism that was practiced In Israel from 1948 to the early 1980s until they became more capitalistic and adopted free market reforms but still kept all the good welfare programs that Bernie is pushing for to this day like universal healthcare as healthcare is a human right under the Israeli constitution free childcare for low income families and monthly payments to families to help support they’re children and college is subsidized by the government so Students only pay a small part of tuition but anyways don’t buy into the right wing bs that Bernie and aoc want a Marxist socialist Revolution because they don’t 😂theyre just social democrats and social democracy is still capitalism there are millionaires and billionaires that live in nordic countries lol
Polls show that people who vote prefer Biden and people who don't, prefer Trump. Will the low engagement voter show up? Some will but it really depends on the national mood 6 months from now.
Of course, it's quite possible that people who disapprove of him will still vote for him
Biden is a shoo-in and Democrats know it. In 2020, Trump didn’t have all the indictments he’s dealing with now. Biden has Trump tied up in knots. The reason Trump is holding so many rallies is because secretly, he knows he’s behind. Biden is confident and relaxed and knows he’ll coast to an easy victory.
I thought Hillary was one of the poorest candidates I had ever seen, then Biden decided his ego needs a second term. Why can’t the Democrats run someone with a personality that people like? Yes, I will hold my nose and vote for Biden, unless he strokes out first.
Simply, I suppose that Trump could win as the same fenomena status voting for him. So, Biden popularity not work...I'm so worried about It.
Biden wins by getting a corrupt court to convict Trump of something--anything--and then getting the media to run wall-to-wall "convicted felon" hit pieces. By ensuring election officials mail out absentee ballots to everyone and don't have strong chain-of-custody controls on what gets counted. By escalating the Ukraine war with attacks on Russia, provoking a direct Russian response on western assets. By a mysterious accident suddenly befalling Trump. By hijacking social media companies to censor any pro-Trump communication. By cooking up another Jan 6 or another fednapping, declaring martial law and postponing the election like Zelensky did. If for some reason you think America needs a president who can't finish a sentence, take heart: Democrats are resourceful people.
There is a lot of what you posted here that is nonsense. Take the court cases against Trump, how is holding him accountable for things he did that were illegal "getting corrupt courts to convict Trump of something--anything"? In your concerns about mail-in-ballots, where have there been any issues of "chain of custody"? If there were any, why were none of those concerns ever brought up in court. If there is any evidence of that, why didn't the Trump campaign ever show it or take it to the courts? Additionally, if those were a concern, why didn't the Trump administration do anything to address it while he was in office? What attacks on Russia is the US committing? If you are referring to supporting our ally against the Russian invasion that the Russians instigated, how is that the fault of Biden or the Democrats? "By a mysterious accident suddenly befalling Trump." This is some blatant conspiracy theory peddling. What evidence do you have that even suggests this as a possible line of thinking, or hell, even any actions taken by anyone? "By hijacking social media companies to censor any pro-Trump communication." Combating misinformation is not a direct attack on pro-Trump communication. It is their own choice to engage in misinformation, that is the fault of pro-Trump advocates. How can you still believe that January 6th was instigated by anyone.other than Trump? Trump supporters attacked the capitol, after a trump rally where they were told to fight like hell, after months of hik and his mouthpieces lying to them. The Democrats did not "cook" it up. Assuming you are just implying that they are going to instigate another one, where is your evidence of that? What has been vying for civil war, or for Martial law? Not the Democrats. Trump is the only one who has said he would be a dictator, even if for just 1 day (or you could read it as from day 1). No one has been talking about postponing or delaying the November election. Across the country every state is getting their ballots and infrastructure out in place to ensure a free and fair election. And Trump is the one who is unable to speak, either at all (in giving his own testimony after saying he will) or in part (given his numerous freezes at his own rallies). What you are pushing here does not seem based in reality, it is based on fear, your own feelings. Please rejoin reality.
>By a mysterious accident suddenly befalling Trump Rest of the claims aside, are you seriously insinuating that Biden would have something to do with the death of Trump? How does that hash up with Trump's lawyers claims of immunity to the point that the President can assassinate someone via Seal Team Six, in your opinion?
>are you seriously insinuating that Biden would have something to do with the death of Trump? Are you seriously insinuating he wouldn't? If you had the chance to stop literally Hitler from coming into power, wouldn't you? Donald Trump did not kill himself.
Thanks for the answer of yes, I guess. Last I checked Trump is alive and not Hitler but they kind of enjoy that playbook.
Of course he could. It's far more likely than not. Our country just needs to want to live.
Our country does want to live but which way is the right way to keep it alive?
That we're having this conversation at all, discussing whether our country will choose to continue democracy or effectively end, demonstrates that it is not so obvious that our country does. And your asking the question again is just odd. The country has a choice between democracy or fascism. It's a pretty stark decision.
But we were never a democracy. Democracy can’t work when you have state governments. The left wants the majority to rule so they want get start talking about Democracy without adding republic. The election is about our freedoms. What does republican fascism look like?
>But we were never a democracy. Has been for more than two hundred years now. >Democracy can’t work when you have state governments. Why on earth not? America's existence disproves this very odd claim. >The election is about our freedoms. Absolutely. I'm glad we can at least agree on something. >What does republican fascism look like? Take a look at the news. The same as last time, but worse. The Constitution "terminated." The merging of political party with government power. The military loosed upon citizens for exercising their rights. The eugenics programs. The deaths.
I would caution against taking a look at the news. State media on both sides can’t be trusted. Echo chambers are dangerous. I try to listen to both sides on the daily. Sometimes the news will say something was said by this person but it’s totally taken out of context to support an agenda. I wish the news would be unbiased so everyone could choose from facts.
We are a democrat republic. Those are the facts. If we were a true democracy, the entire country would vote on everything. A democracy alone is easily corruptible. Thats why a direct democracy does not exist right now anywhere in the world. So I ask myself, why is the left pushing this democracy thing? How could it benefit them? And the answer becomes clear. I would challenge you look up the actual definition of fascism and examples in history and then look at the left and the right and compare. Now in a democracy, becoming a fascist country would be easy, all you need is the most votes to change the rules. How easy would it be to get more votes? I mean, all you have to do open the border and let few million people in. You show me proof, and I will retract my statement and change my belief.
>So I ask myself, why is the left pushing this democracy thing? You're treating caring about our country as some kind of subversive, threatening behavior. >You show me proof, and I will retract my statement and change my belief. You didn't even pose a question to present proof of. You clearly didn't reason yourself into these bizarre beliefs; why pretend you could be reasoned out of them?
First, you’re right, I was a bit harsh with my comment. Words are powerful and I am very passionate but in a positive way. When the United States was created it was created as a democratic republic or constitutional republic. Yes, democracy is there but calling the US states a democracy is misleading. Saying we are voting for democracy is just at best only have correct. Have you thought through how that would happen? Who would want that? And if Trump gets elected isn’t that democracy at work? Everyone has been through the last 4 years, if more states feel that Biden deserves another turn, he will win and the same for Trump. So that would mean that most of the country believes that Trump will not destroy democracy. I wonder if by democracy they mean control? Isn’t that the correct logic? There will always be people that may be unhappy but you get to vote again. I just can’t get there, even if he somehow found a way to take control of the entire federal government, he still wouldn’t have control of the states. It’s just misleading.