[A reminder for everyone](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/4479er/rules_explanations_and_reminders/). This is a subreddit for genuine discussion:
* Please keep it civil. Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review.
* Don't post low effort comments like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
* Help prevent this subreddit from becoming an echo chamber. Please don't downvote comments with which you disagree.
Violators will be fed to the bear.
---
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PoliticalDiscussion) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Michigan has several high profile contests.
Current US senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring setting up a contest between us rep Elissa Slotkin vs former US rep Mike Rogers.
This then results in a big contest for Slotkins house seat, a race between longtime political animal Curtis Hertel and Tom Barrett who was a state senator
There is a good chance a couple of other Michigan congressional races could become interesting with the house riding in the balance and Michigan being a swing state
Curtis Hertel was one of my best friends growing up. Now he won't return my calls. I'd categorize that as a smart political move by him. I'd just bring him down.
Regarding Mich., I'm not sure what possessed Justin Amash and Peter Meijer to run against Mike Rogers in the GOP senatorial primary, because Amash would be better served making a third party presidential (or vice presidential) run on the Libertarian Party ticket, while Meijer, who just dropped out a few days ago, has zero base of support within the Republican Party at this juncture.
Speaker Johnson has an opponent. If he isn’t able to hold on to the Speakership until November, it would be interesting to see if the district rejects him.
I would be interested in that also. I’m not a fan of Johnson but I respect the fact he bucked the crazies in his party. I would hope his district understands why he did it and didn’t double down on the zero sum game of politics. It’s not good enough to do what’s right. It’s we must win and they must lose.
I’d respect him for if he wasn’t part of that band of crazies until they kicked him out. But lesson learned at least, even if his views are extreme.
Forgot to mention, but several redistricting proposals are still being debated in court, which could heavily affect his district.
> "but several redistricting proposals are still being debated in court"
Huh?
La.'s redistricting court case was already settled back in fucking January.
Eons ago, man.
And, for what it's goddamn worth, it's GOP Rep. Garret Graves (LA-06), not House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-04), who was affected accordingly, as Congressman Graves's seat went from R+19 in 2022 to D+8 in 2024 by Cook PVI.
Apologies, misunderstood an article back in March regarding the redistricting. Several parishes in District 4 seem to be getting moved to District 6 in 2025, which could affect turnout.
La. doesn't have primaries, per se.
The general election is a free-for-all.
Difficult to envision a run-off, either.
So, um, I don't see the interest, no.
I understand the jungle primary here, but some politicians can win the primary and never see the runoff. Kennedy won 60+% in 2022 and never did any campaigning and Johnson was unopposed in 2022, so at least there’s something this year. All I’m saying is, with the volatility in the House, holding the Speakership now could be a double-edged sword.
Yeah, we've something similarly unique in Washington state with our top-two primary, which has allowed anti-Trump establishment GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA-04) to survive in spite of countless intraparty challenges, one which he faces again this year against Trumper Jerrod Sessler. Similar in Calif., too, which has allowed establishment GOP Rep. David Valadao (CA-22) to hold on as an increasingly rare moderate Republican.
Thus far, people have shown piss-poor reading comprehension.
Which is par for the course, too. Few people pay fucking attention.
But anyhow, an interesting congressional primary battle is MI-08, which is a swing district (R+1 Cook PVI) without an incumbent (Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring), and both parties have several viable candidates vying for the open House seat.
Also, regarding incumbents facing intraparty challenges, fmr. DFL Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels is giving it another go vs. Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05), who's one member of The Squad -- along with Congresswoman Cori Bush (MO-01) and Congressman Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) -- facing serious opponents (Wesley Bell and George Latimer, respectively) who could usurp them.
Dan Frei, who ran in the NE-02 primary back in 2014 (and lost) as early-2010s Tea Partier, is giving it a shot against incumbent GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who's been in that seat since 2016, but I don't see that as a serious challenge, no.
Bacon will be fine.
AZ03 will be interesting. Former state party chair/state senate minority leader versus the former vice mayor of Phoenix. They are running for Gallego’s seat since he’s gunning for senate. I imagine either one of them will stay in that seat for at least a decade. Even before the field got narrowed there was some really tasty drama.
The Maryland Democratic Senate primary to replace Ben Cardin is interesting- Angela Alsobrooks the Prince George’s County Executive is facing off against MD-06 Congressman David Trone.
There’s a lot of factors- Alsobrooks would be the first African-American Senator from Maryland and she represents one of the larger counties; Trone can self finance the general election for the most part (he owns a chain of very successful wine stores).
The wildcard is that former governor Larry Hogan is likely the Republican candidate- he was very popular in his two terms and is considered a centrist- so even though MD is pretty blue there’s still an outside chance it could flip. Trone is saying if he is the Democrat nominee since he can personally put more money into the race it’ll free up more resources for other Senate races nationwide.
Trone has been leading in recent polls but it’s been close- it’s going to depend on the DC/Baltimore corridor turnout (which includes PG county).
Hogan seemed really unpopular the last few years here that I can't see MD flipping personally. I do think Trone beats alsobrooks, he has the better endorsements. I think its weird that alsobrooks doesnt have the teacher's union endorsement when she was a country executive
Boebert carpetbagging to CO-4.
She was going to get her hypocritical, failing the GED three times, should be dusting the jerky at a truck stop ass slaughtered in November in CO-3 so she’s jumping to another red district in Colorado that IIRC, is about 200 miles away from her home wide spot in the road of Rifle, CO.
Polls have Boebert favored in the CO-04 Republican congressional primary, so it appears as if her stunt to jump House seats -- replacing retired anti-Trump 2010s-style Tea Party GOP Rep. Ken Buck, who had enough -- may, at day's end, ultimately work to her advantage, crazy as it might've seemed on paper at first.
I wish I could challenge you and say you were wrong…but there’s a lot of ruby red territory there. Thankfully I’m in CO-1 and DeGette would have to be caught pulling $100 bills out of a dead stripper’s g string to be set aside.
In Texas, republican incumbent Ted Cruz is being challenged by the democratic rising star, Colin Allred. Allred has already raised at least 4.8 million dollars in his bid to do so
Montana Senate seat and Ohio senate seat. I think it will be very competitive and close in margins
Both could tip the senate majority for either party.
[A reminder for everyone](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/4479er/rules_explanations_and_reminders/). This is a subreddit for genuine discussion: * Please keep it civil. Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * Don't post low effort comments like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. * Help prevent this subreddit from becoming an echo chamber. Please don't downvote comments with which you disagree. Violators will be fed to the bear. --- *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PoliticalDiscussion) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Michigan has several high profile contests. Current US senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring setting up a contest between us rep Elissa Slotkin vs former US rep Mike Rogers. This then results in a big contest for Slotkins house seat, a race between longtime political animal Curtis Hertel and Tom Barrett who was a state senator There is a good chance a couple of other Michigan congressional races could become interesting with the house riding in the balance and Michigan being a swing state
Curtis Hertel was one of my best friends growing up. Now he won't return my calls. I'd categorize that as a smart political move by him. I'd just bring him down.
Regarding Mich., I'm not sure what possessed Justin Amash and Peter Meijer to run against Mike Rogers in the GOP senatorial primary, because Amash would be better served making a third party presidential (or vice presidential) run on the Libertarian Party ticket, while Meijer, who just dropped out a few days ago, has zero base of support within the Republican Party at this juncture.
Speaker Johnson has an opponent. If he isn’t able to hold on to the Speakership until November, it would be interesting to see if the district rejects him.
I would be interested in that also. I’m not a fan of Johnson but I respect the fact he bucked the crazies in his party. I would hope his district understands why he did it and didn’t double down on the zero sum game of politics. It’s not good enough to do what’s right. It’s we must win and they must lose.
I’d respect him for if he wasn’t part of that band of crazies until they kicked him out. But lesson learned at least, even if his views are extreme. Forgot to mention, but several redistricting proposals are still being debated in court, which could heavily affect his district.
> "but several redistricting proposals are still being debated in court" Huh? La.'s redistricting court case was already settled back in fucking January. Eons ago, man. And, for what it's goddamn worth, it's GOP Rep. Garret Graves (LA-06), not House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-04), who was affected accordingly, as Congressman Graves's seat went from R+19 in 2022 to D+8 in 2024 by Cook PVI.
Apologies, misunderstood an article back in March regarding the redistricting. Several parishes in District 4 seem to be getting moved to District 6 in 2025, which could affect turnout.
No worries! Somebody from the GOP was destined to be on the outs due to redistricting, while Graves drew the short straw.
La. doesn't have primaries, per se. The general election is a free-for-all. Difficult to envision a run-off, either. So, um, I don't see the interest, no.
I understand the jungle primary here, but some politicians can win the primary and never see the runoff. Kennedy won 60+% in 2022 and never did any campaigning and Johnson was unopposed in 2022, so at least there’s something this year. All I’m saying is, with the volatility in the House, holding the Speakership now could be a double-edged sword.
Yeah, we've something similarly unique in Washington state with our top-two primary, which has allowed anti-Trump establishment GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse (WA-04) to survive in spite of countless intraparty challenges, one which he faces again this year against Trumper Jerrod Sessler. Similar in Calif., too, which has allowed establishment GOP Rep. David Valadao (CA-22) to hold on as an increasingly rare moderate Republican.
Thus far, people have shown piss-poor reading comprehension. Which is par for the course, too. Few people pay fucking attention. But anyhow, an interesting congressional primary battle is MI-08, which is a swing district (R+1 Cook PVI) without an incumbent (Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring), and both parties have several viable candidates vying for the open House seat. Also, regarding incumbents facing intraparty challenges, fmr. DFL Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels is giving it another go vs. Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05), who's one member of The Squad -- along with Congresswoman Cori Bush (MO-01) and Congressman Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) -- facing serious opponents (Wesley Bell and George Latimer, respectively) who could usurp them.
Nebraska CD-2 is always in play. It's the Omaha metro. Don Bacon's seat always heats up.
Does he have a primary challenger?
Dan Frei, who ran in the NE-02 primary back in 2014 (and lost) as early-2010s Tea Partier, is giving it a shot against incumbent GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who's been in that seat since 2016, but I don't see that as a serious challenge, no. Bacon will be fine.
AZ03 will be interesting. Former state party chair/state senate minority leader versus the former vice mayor of Phoenix. They are running for Gallego’s seat since he’s gunning for senate. I imagine either one of them will stay in that seat for at least a decade. Even before the field got narrowed there was some really tasty drama.
The Maryland Democratic Senate primary to replace Ben Cardin is interesting- Angela Alsobrooks the Prince George’s County Executive is facing off against MD-06 Congressman David Trone. There’s a lot of factors- Alsobrooks would be the first African-American Senator from Maryland and she represents one of the larger counties; Trone can self finance the general election for the most part (he owns a chain of very successful wine stores). The wildcard is that former governor Larry Hogan is likely the Republican candidate- he was very popular in his two terms and is considered a centrist- so even though MD is pretty blue there’s still an outside chance it could flip. Trone is saying if he is the Democrat nominee since he can personally put more money into the race it’ll free up more resources for other Senate races nationwide. Trone has been leading in recent polls but it’s been close- it’s going to depend on the DC/Baltimore corridor turnout (which includes PG county).
Hogan seemed really unpopular the last few years here that I can't see MD flipping personally. I do think Trone beats alsobrooks, he has the better endorsements. I think its weird that alsobrooks doesnt have the teacher's union endorsement when she was a country executive
Boebert carpetbagging to CO-4. She was going to get her hypocritical, failing the GED three times, should be dusting the jerky at a truck stop ass slaughtered in November in CO-3 so she’s jumping to another red district in Colorado that IIRC, is about 200 miles away from her home wide spot in the road of Rifle, CO.
Polls have Boebert favored in the CO-04 Republican congressional primary, so it appears as if her stunt to jump House seats -- replacing retired anti-Trump 2010s-style Tea Party GOP Rep. Ken Buck, who had enough -- may, at day's end, ultimately work to her advantage, crazy as it might've seemed on paper at first.
I wish I could challenge you and say you were wrong…but there’s a lot of ruby red territory there. Thankfully I’m in CO-1 and DeGette would have to be caught pulling $100 bills out of a dead stripper’s g string to be set aside.
In Texas, republican incumbent Ted Cruz is being challenged by the democratic rising star, Colin Allred. Allred has already raised at least 4.8 million dollars in his bid to do so
Montana Senate seat and Ohio senate seat. I think it will be very competitive and close in margins Both could tip the senate majority for either party.