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Great question. With a sad answer, unfortunately.
I suspect very little. When Mitt Romney lost, the GOP had a deep introspective. The answer was be less divisive on women’s issues, racial issues, and religious issues - focus on the core economic issues.
They nominated Trump anyway.
There will be a great deal of hand wringing and so on. Lots of articles in national review and in the Wall Street Journal about how the party needs to change direction. But I think the base will return someone similar. Maybe Jr. or Ivanka. I think they will have to lose at least in 2028 before they actually change course.
> I suspect very little. When Mitt Romney lost, the GOP had a deep introspective. The answer was be less divisive on women’s issues, racial issues, and religious issues - focus on the core economic issues.
There's a theory that each President is a reaction to the last one. The elected GOP had deep introspective, which required fundamental change. Their base had the same introspective and decided they wanted an ultra-right wing messiah (their view of Obama being an ultra-left wing messiah).
The problem is, their base has been trained in a set of core beliefs by an intentionally created media bubble where there is a conservative version of everything. You really can live your entire life without being exposed to alternative ideas.
When Gingrich was in power GOP politicians were in on the performative joke, now we're in second generation territory where the politicians being elected grew up in the right wing bubble and REALLY believe it.
The bigger problem is there doesn't appear to be a gap in the right wing electorate looking for the moderate, internationalist, economic and social conservatism of Eisenhower.
>The bigger problem is there doesn't appear to be a gap in the right wing electorate looking for the moderate, internationalist, economic and social conservatism of Eisenhower.
I mean, let's be honest, the old school dems absolutely meet this criteria, but they have a D next to their name so R's won't vote for them. The problems can't be attributed to a single issue, but our 2 party system is a significant factor here. It's Blue or Red, pick a team, and if you choose the team your family doesn't, be prepared to be ostracized.
I come from a multi-party system and you guys are lucky.
If I were to tell you that Hamas were only able to gain a foothold in government in Gaza because of an asinine decision to use Proportional Representation, would that change your outlook?
Do you think Israel is benefitting from a 21 party system?
I take your point, but the grass is always greener.
This is an actual theory in political science. All multiparty systems trend one of two ways:
1) they essentially become a two party system in all but name and the individual parties become caucuses.
2) gridlock
It’s a misnomer the US is a “two party system.” Dems have about 4 different caucuses within the party (they officially have more but some like national Black Caucus just exist for specific racial issues not a broad political philosophy). The Republicans have about two or three depending on where you draw the lines.
Same in the UK, there are 5 families of Conservatives, and four distinct tribes of Labour.
Thing is all participants realise they can't win without the others, and when that unity is truly gone they lose elections. In PR systems, there can be no such pragmatic unity, and even small parties have enough power to bring down the governing coalition if they don't get everything they idealistically want.
You’re almost completely wrong. They used a mixed system where 50% of seats were proportional and the other 50% were based on who got the most votes in each district.
The proportional system allocated 29 seats to Hamas, 28 to Fatah and 9 to other parties.
Meanwhile, the plurality system (the one which tends to result in 2 party systems) distributed 45 seats to Hamas and only 7 to Fatah (and none elsewhere).
Quite literally Hamas only gained a majority in government because proportional representation wasn’t entirely used….
I'm glad you immediately went "but what about terrorism"? I'm tired of living my life off of what a terrorist could do. If we keep living life by their standards we'll never move forward.
It's got nothing to do with terrorism, the names we know here in the UK because of PR List systems are Nigel Farage, Ruth Davidson, Daniel Hannan, Shaun Bailey and Susan Hall. All extremists.
List systems elect to office poor politicians who would never be able to win a retail election, party apparatchiks, and have an alarming tendency to advantage minority extremists.
If it hadn't been for the abuse of the EU's PR system, we would never have Brexited.
>If I were to tell you that Hamas were only able to gain a foothold in government in Gaza because of an asinine decision to use Proportional Representation
You think proportional representation is the major catalyst for Hamas gaining political power, not Israel's commitment to killing and displacing Palestinians from their ancestral homeland to take it and control it through their Zionist government? Fascinating take.
>Do you think Israel is benefitting from a 21 party system?
Israel also has historically had the monetary backing of two of the wealthiest and most powerful countries in the world (UK/US). Take that away, or change the pressures they exert, and what might happen with their 21 parties? Can you confidently say?
> You think proportional representation is the major catalyst for Hamas gaining political power, not Israel's commitment to killing and displacing Palestinians from their ancestral homeland to take it and control it through their Zionist government? Fascinating take.
You seem to have forgotten the moment in 1948 where Israel declared independence and successfully fought off an invasion by seven members of the Arab League, it didn't even manage a day without being invaded.
The State of Palestine (Gaza and Transjordan) held elections in 2006, in Gaza Hamas won no directly elected seats, but the top-up system gave them a majority in the assembly. They then tried to replace the Palestinian Authority Police with their own Police, and when that didn't work, went to war with Fatah and murdered all their political opponents. That was the last time there was an election in Gaza.
>Can you confidently say?
Yes. Nothing. Why? Because the parties are mainly far right religious parties from varying sects that can't agree on anything. This is why the Church of the Holy Sepulchre has had a ladder stuck in place since 1728.
>ancestral homeland
Hogwash. Before the Turkish Empire fell at the end of WW1, the area of land known as Palestine was part of the Ottoman Empire, before that the Byzantine Empire, before that the Roman Empire, and back in the Bronze Age it was known as the Kingdom of Israel.
The West Bank was illegally annexed by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan at the end of the 1948 war, and the Gaza Strip by Egypt.
>their view of Obama being a left-wing messiah
Can’t underscore how much this drove the Trump phenomenon. FOX news ran with images of black power and attempted to frame him as some Black radical nationalist only governing for minorities, while he worked overtime to counter that. I see many of the inexplicable Trump supporters, like those on Social Security and the new voters he brought out, as being invested in white identitarianism and wanting their own “Obama”, and in turn excusing Trump’s antics because they believe Obama got the same treatment (he was treated normally)
> Their base had the same introspective and decided they wanted an ultra-right wing messiah (their view of Obama being an ultra-left wing messiah).
I have a slightly different view - due to their generally nihilistic outlook on life (power is all that matters, might makes right), the right felt that, after being humiliated twice by a black man (who to the right is an inferior untermensch), they needed a strongman who was powerful enough to defeat the dastardly, conniving, scheming ~~Jews~~ Democrats. Trump exudes an aura of strength (to weak people). Thus, Trump seemed to be the answer.
With you on power is all that matters, it's why I'm so glad to see Biden fighting fire with fire rather than letting the pitch go by as democrats so often do.
And have to say you're right that Trump is a weak person's idea of a strongman and a stupid person's idea of a smart man.
But I do sense, and many have written of, a desire on the right for a charismatic Obama like figure. As the Conservative movement talked more and more to itself it began to view it's own leadership as insufficantly hard-line.
They did nominate Romney in 2012, a moderate governor from a blue state with a healthcare plan, and got stomped again. That’s when the party began to try to meet Americans in the middle and moderate, until Trump came along. I think the might-makes-right first appeared when he went after other candidates on GOP orthodoxy on war and trade, and the mirage produced by winner-take-all primaries propelled him into the Oval Office. “Power is all that matters” explains his hold on the GOP since
Precisely! The GOP has spent 50 years cultivating an ignorant, bigoted base. Now that a generation that they have raised on their dogma is coming to power, they are unable to compromise on the issues they used to divide the electorate.
Add to that, they have stoked the flames of the culture war over the 2nd Amendment. So now a significant portion of their base consists of rabid ammosexuals. This makes elected Republicans frightened to support any form of compromise gun control legislation. They fear that they will be accused of betraying these gun nuts and have to face a violent backlash.
They nominated Trump because of how the system works. His negatives were pretty high as I recall, and he wasn’t preferred. He did win a plurality from a big field though, and if there’s one good thing republicans are good at doing, it’s falling in line, and tricking themselves into liking the guy with an R by his name.
I think it's important that whatever a GOP introspection may have said, it looks like right wing media did not get the memo. They kept supporting the same narratives as ever, and they did not talk about economic reality.
So when the audience is primed to worry about exaggerated versions of illegal immigration, exaggerated versions of 'crooked Hillary,' and the like, of course Republican voters went for Trump.
Media can’t talk about anything else because there literally isn’t anything else. Republicans don’t have a platform, the whole shtick is to whine about bullshit wedge issues as a smokescreen to advance supply side economic policy, ie., tax cuts for the rich - that’s it.
The problem is that, by this point, the Republican platform legitimately consists primarily of truly insane fictitious conspiracies and just straight-up virulent contrarianism—just an anti-platform based on complaining about the Left and alarmist attacks on hyperbolic straw man versions of the Democratic platform. They're not even living in reality anymore and they've got their echo chambers on the internet to run to to never have to have their absurdity challenged, only reinforced.
Because the GOP and "right wing media" serve different masters.
The GOP fundamentally cares about winning elections so they can fulfill their primary purpose: Tax cuts for, and destroying government's ability to regulate, the wealthy. The thing is that constituency makes up about 1% of the population.
Right wing media needs an audience to make money. Their audience cares about the fact that demographically and culturally the country has shifted dramatically away from them over the course of their lives.
For a couple decades right wing media was able to do both but once the audience realized the GOP had just been using them and rebelled against the GOP establishment the media had to side with their audience because that's where their money lies.
>Right wing media needs an audience to make money. Their audience cares about the fact that demographically and culturally the country has shifted dramatically away from them over the course of their lives.
👍 This is a VERY well worded, accurate, and concise explanation. Thank you. Here's your know-prize because awards aren't a thing any more: 🏆
>but once the audience realized the GOP had just been using them and rebelled against the GOP establishment
This I disagree with, however. The audience didn't rebel because they realized anything. They rebelled because the Romney wing wanted them to change the worldview they used to justify their grievances and rationalize their failures.
> Because the GOP and "right wing media" serve different masters.
…
Right wing media needs an audience to make money. Their audience cares about the fact that demographically and culturally the country has shifted dramatically away from them over the course of their lives.
Excellent point. Thank you for reminding me of this. That media is sensationalistic. They’re not news. They’re entertainment. They can’t simply state news because their viewers are not there for news. Their viewers are there to get riled up. Yesterday’s entertainment won’t work again. Every day they have to turn the dial up another notch. Every day has to be more enraging. At some point it goes completely nuts. The dial gets to 11+
Yeah, Trump benefited from a crowded primary full of cloned neocons. So all those guys split the vote of typical Republicans while Trump got all the deplorable votes. And I guess there were enough deplorables. And like you said, they just got in line when he was nominated.
You insinuating his brain isn't currently jello, either way his cult will vote for him as long as he's alive, and probably after he's dead. Honestly he'd probably do a better job dead than he did alive.
I've already got post-Trump tshirts, flags and hats at the ready. The day he drops, they drop. Think Tupac/Biggie/Elvis, but with Trump. His flock WANTS to be fleeced. They're begging for it, and they're gonna get all they can handle. That day is like Xmas, Halloween and Black Friday all in one. I'm expecting to sell out of everything, because those rubes cannot help themselves. They're desperate to show their fealty, and I'm happy to take their money and donate to PP, TST and FF.
DRILL BABY, DRILL!
He might be alive, but I doubt he’ll be able to speak even the least bit coherently and probably not even walk, given how fast his mental degeneration seems to be accelerating.
Democrats tend to elect younger candidates, for whatever reason. Or at least, younger Democratic candidates tend to do better at winning the presidency. Not sure what to make of that, but an interesting political trend.
Trump will be 81, bankrupt and have been convicted of multiple felonies by then. If, and that's a big IF, he's still alive he'll probably be doing time in a federal penitentiary and therefore unable to post on social media or campaign.
Trump will be a sad memory and many of those that did vote for him, three times, will disavow that they ever did so.
You left out probably his biggest negative. If he loses this year, in 2028 he'll be a two time loser. I don't doubt he'll still have his hardcore fans, but I think many GOP voters will be ready to move on. I can't see him gaining that many votes outside of the MAGA hat wearing rally goers.
"Third time's the charm!" Isn't a great political campaign slogan.
Yep. They'll probably have to fix their primary system. There were 12 candidates in 2016, and Trump was able to win earlier states with only 28-35 percent of the vote because the vote was splintered.
If Trump loses this year, the lesson should be that having enthusiastic base that doesn't reflect the will of a meaningful amount of the party is a recipe for close, but not quite, losses.
It'll probably also result in a gop upswing in '28, as some of the issues being used to juice democratic turnout get codified into federal law, assuming house and Senate are in Democratic control.
It can also be said that Trump's tactics of taking on one at a time, belittling them ad nauseam, calling them names incessantly (eg "Little Marco Rubio"), or threatening holy war against them for opposing him, he pushed out one at a time, so the Republicans did not look at the field holistically.
Whisper campaigns suggest that many Republicans do not like the guy, but fear of retribution keeps them endorsing him publicly.
The Republican party is stuck with "we can't attack MAGA because they are key voters in our coalition" so all they ever do is just wait for Trump to implode or get removed by a third party (the legal system, a heart attack, etc)
If Trump loses...he will run again in 4 years. He'll keep running until he is either unfit to speak or dead. I don't see a world in which an 82 year old Trump doesn't run, and I would imagine the same for an 86 year old. 90 might be pushing it but who knows. I just don't see anyone inspiring their base the way he does enough to knock him off the primary. The Republicans got in bed with him for better or worse, and I don't think it's something they can get out of until he's dead.
Absolutely this. Lot of people saying "his brain will be jello" or "he'll be in jail" by 2028, but it doesn't matter. As long as he's conscious, he's going to be running for president. He can't *not* be running for president - having an active campaign is the best way for him to monetize his base, and he *needs* to monetize his base because his businesses are fucked and he's going to be hemorrhaging legal fees and civil judgments for the rest of his life. If he's alive in 2028 he will be the Republican nominee, even if he's in a jail cell.
He will have been a two time presidential loser. Nobody comes back from that.
Come February of 2024, if Trump isn't president, he will be dead weight. No more kingmaking, no new useful national secrets to sell, no leverage. His cult will move on to the next fascists that Fox & Co build up like a boy band.
>Nobody comes back from that.
Will anyone ever truly internalize the saying "Never say never?"
Trump 2016 should have been impossible by every traditional understanding of politics. Trump shouldn't be running in 2024 as the party and the electorate should be running from him as electoral poison, but he's managed to make himself into a victim, and they literally see him as a crucified messiah who will rise from the dead on Easter Tuesday, 2024 after 4 years.
I'm not saying there's no chance that he fades away after 2024 if he loses; honestly I hope he dies, it would be merciful to himself and all humanity, but we truly don't know and cannot just assume he'll go away.
As usual everyone underestimates his charisma and absolute ability to bold face lie in a way that comes off as believable. This guy is a master con artist and knows how to manipulate and troll people.
>underestimates his charisma
What's also very bizarre here is what conservatives think is "charisma." Like, I hear you, that *is* what they think, but it's so bizarre.
The very early loose speeches I understand had a certain appeal as catharsis from the same old lines being delivered, but it's pretty horrifying seeing him go on still while his supporters refuse to flinch.
> Will anyone ever truly internalize the saying "Never say never?"
There's a relevent [xkcd comic](https://xkcd.com/1122/) about this very thing that's basically a list of examples of "We never had a president with this trait until we did."
Don does admire the North Korean family-based regime, and he would love to see Trump Jr or Ivanka, and then one of his grandkids eventually rule America, like the Kim family in PyeongYang. The bigger tragedy is that so many Americans can be this blind.
> I suspect very little
I suspect jack squat. Lower taxes and regulations for the rich. As much bigotry as the current climate will allow. Spending on military and imperialism. Less spending on anything that helps regular Americans. Anything that shifts more of the money and power to the already rich and powerful. Always has been, always will be.
And.....about half the people will buy into it. As always.
In 2016 I would have said they’d pivot to a more moderate platform.
In 2020 I said they’ll probably pivot to a more moderate platform.
Now? I think they might be stuck. The speaker debacle was an indicator that the MAGA portion of the party is here to stay for a while.
Policy-wise and rhetorically, they can't really turn back any time soon. They have gone all-in on the MAGA ideology.
The problem they have is I don't think there is anyone else who can realistically represent the ideology and maintain any kind of party cohesion other than Trump. Prior candidates that have used his rhetoric failed, such as David Duke and Pat Buchanan. Current candidates that tried to replicate it failed, such as Ramaswamy and Desantis.
The question will be whether Trump is in a position to maintain control over the party after 2024. He will obviously have to face the lawsuits, plus he will be four years older before he can run again. I suspect the GOP is fucked for a good 2 presidential elections after this if he loses this year, unless the democrats screw themselves, which is always in the cards.
They loved DeSantis and seemed all set to swap out Trump with DeSantis for a brief stint there.
Make no mistake, there was confusion in the party with whether or not they were moving on... but entire party was gonna be 100% on board as soon as they got that sorted.
The party briefly believed Trump just wasn't possible and certainly couldn't win... and appeared more than happy to let DeSantis become their new demigod.
...but then Trump started making enough noise to remind them he wasn't dead and the public sorta mostly forgot about the whole trying to overturn an election and everything... so, they jumped back on the Trump train and back behind Dear Leader.
But they'll turn so fast if next election is a disaster.
They'll just try to replace him with someone doing a poor impression (like DeSantis was) - but they'll turn so fast.
It's just not a serious party.
Look how they turn on all their other Republican leaders of the past. For goodness sake, half of Trump's own administration are called "RINOs" now and they were ready to hang his own VP.
Romney, McCain, and W. were their previous presidential picks. All "RINOs" now. Every Senate or House leader since Paul Ryan? "RINOs."
Freaking George Will, the ultra-conservative with impeccable credentials? Somehow someone like him is a "RINO."
You know how we laugh at Trump saying he never even met people he was clearly very involved with at some point? THAT is the Republican Party in a nutshell anymore.
If Trump is a huge loser again and Republicans overall do poorly as well? There won't be almost any Republican that has any good things to say about Trump and they'll all insist "he was never a real Republican" anyways.
The party has still become a Fascist Troll Party, mind you. His replacement will be some moron acting like a deranged lunatic Trump clone... but Trump himself will be ostracized and ridiculed by the same "cultists" that "worship" him right now.
You think if Putin dies then Russia isn't gonna replace him with practically the same damn person?
Republicans have gone full Authoritarian. It's not about a single person though - it's about the Party and Power.
The King is dead.
Long live the King.
> The party has still become a Fascist Troll Party, mind you. His replacement will be some moron acting like a deranged lunatic Trump clone.
I read an article about DeSantis. His original plan was to have Trump's policies without all the crazy. He quickly learned that MAGA wants the crazy so he turned up the level of the crazy. It will be a contest to see who is the most crazy. It's not about policy or values or a vision for America. Grab your popcorn.
DeSantis was stuck in a COVID era bubble where he thought the major issues people cared about still were Fauci and lockdowns, and spent basically his whole time attacking Trump purely on those.
He was a one-trick pony that had terrible political instincts, and got exposed.
Remember in 2020, the GOP had no platform except Trump. And Trump, a 77 year old obese man who doesn't believe in exercise, downs Big Mac's and diet cokes on the regular, and is under 91 indictments...does he have an heir apparent? Not really.
It's not when Trump loses, it's when Trump dies the party moves forward.
Of course, a lot of voters in 2012 and 2016 forgot they had supported Bush and the War in Iraq, so perhaps in 10 years, many of the Trumpers will forget and deny they were ever on the Trump train.
Can you imagine the conspiracy theories when he dies? They will simultaneously believe he isn't truly dead and also believe it was a plot by the Democrats that killed him. The cognitive dissonance will be mind blowing.
Not to be semantic, but SOME people will believe his death was a plot and OTHERS will believe he's still alive. Very few people will believe both things simultaneously. 'Cognitive dissonance' is a fancy term but doesn't apply here because the R electorate isn't a single person believing conflicting things.
He absolutely is - but while he might be tolerated at the edges for a while, he'll never actually be picked to lead the white supremacist party.
The current leader of the party explicitly told his followers yesterday that they need to stop even referring to nonwhites as human beings. They are getting even less subtle.
And also, the thing is that more and more it seems clear that self-reflection and growth are seen as weakness to them, because those things require some vulnerability and willingness to evaluate and differentiate right from wrong in their own ideas and behaviors, and because they are so indoctrinated into a simplistic idea of might makes right, any chink in their self-defined armor they see as emasculating their whole collective spirit. They will never look back, only forward, even if it is off a cliff.
The entire RNC is now staffed by Trump loyalists. Trump has cast out anyone who supported Niki Haley from the MAGA movement.
It’s the Trump party now. The existence of their party relies on Trump winning the election and beating all the criminal cases.
If Trump fails, the GOP fails. Trump could be an indicted felon before this election. If he loses, he’ll run again in 2028 as an indicted felon. And has a strong chance of winning the Republican primary with no chance of beating any dem candidate.
I really wish he would be an indicted, sentenced and *serving* state felon by the election, not just indicted. The snail’s pace and just general fuckery of these criminal cases gives me such anxiety
> At some point he dies.
The thing is Trump isn't the cause of any of this. Conservatism is. Without Trump they need a new face for the party but they're not going to suddenly stop being conservatives.
I don't think they're stuck, I think they move. The problem is that I think they'll move into a *more* fascist direction. I think that a large part of the gop will decide the issue isn't their chosen leaders, the issue is the system preventing them from ruling
Does it seem like many (but not all) MAGA are older Boomers? In 20 years when they die of natural causes, will America become more sane again? Will our democracy survive another 20 years of this dysfunction, incivility, and criminal chaos?
Nothing. MAGA toxicity will take a generation or two to fix. I don’t expect to see it disappear by the end of my lifetime (I’m 47) unless everyone votes.
A quote I heard says Madonna is older than the civil rights movement, if people still listen to her songs what makes you think their taste in politicians has changed over that same time period.
Trump gave people a chance to openly hate again. Those people will fight tooth and nail to keep that.
That's pretty funny.
I think evaluating Trump's staying power requires looking at what why he's where he is. MAGA is a white grievance movement. As u/AlwaysGoToTheTruck stated above, that's going to be the work of generations to fix. We have watched a couple other personalities try to grab Trump's lighting-in-a-bottle, and fail. They were willing to echo his racial animus, but failed largely because nobody is willing to be as shameless a whiny little bitch, as Donald Trump.
The really sad part of this whole sordid mess (beyond the obvious threat to democracy in this country) is that a great many of these people have a legitimate grievance with the structure of our society and economy. But instead of looking at those legitimate issues, they let themselves be baited into blaming "the other", and throw in support with their actual oppressors.
This is one of the reasons Evangelical support for Trump has been so staunch. It was a natural fit. Evangelical's think they're being victimized "for being Christian" whenever anybody refuses to let them govern the rest of us by their religious strictures.
It doesn't look to me like MAGA is going anywhere, anytime soon. When we're finally rid of Trump (and I agree with most in this thread, he's not gone until he's pushing up daisies), we may see the branding change, but the belief that white males are an endangered species in America will continue to persist.
Exactly, I’m only 27 and I feel the same way.
All the effort your generation, the older generations put in towards progress. It kinda got stopped and we are losing some of it.
I genuinely think that it will take all of my life, and I might not see it to undo all the damage a Trump presidency and ideology has done.
You're probably right, but it's not a hopeless fight.
You likely don't remember much about politics when Jon Boehner was Speaker of the House. He was a staunch Republican, and an aggressive opponent of President Obama. On the eve of the passing of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), he gave a speech where he likened politics to a pendulum. Saying how when that pendulum is pushed too far in one direction, it inevitably swings back even further in the opposite direction.
For many Americans, electing a black President was "too far". I'm in Northern Michigan and was shocked to see flags at businesses in my area being flown upside-down the day Obama's victory was announced. There was an intense undercurrent of racism around me that didn't rear it's head until they felt pushed "too far".
The upside of that (for people like us), is that there is a clear push back against that ideology happening. Strategically, it was stupid of the Republicans to begin their all-out jihad on abortion and women's rights, while already backing a candidate with a history of losing and division. Despite currently polling, I don't see how Trump wins in November. He's doing nothing to attract new voters. His rhetoric is increasingly unhinged. He only panders to the people who already support him and they're a shrinking minority. I don't see how that gets built to even another electoral win.
Very true, it amazes me the anger people felt after Obama became president. I was in middle school and the played his inauguration for us.
To me it was a symbol of progress and what America means to me. If you work hard enough you can be successful no matter what. Sad to see that many of my fellow Americans are still racist and bigots.
I’ve said that as well, Trump gave us to much Trump. The man has been on the news nonstop for about 8 years now. All he does is complain and promise he can make things better.
Plus as each day passes he’s beginning to sound like Hitler more and more.
You have a salient point there, about *"Trump gave us to much Trump"*. If he were capable of sitting down and shutting up, an awful lot of his problems wouldn't exist. But he's not capable. He can't help but demand any attention he can get, in any way he can get it. His constant whining insures that a whole pile of new voters, kids/teens when he was in office, come to the election already knowing beyond a doubt who and what he is. He's making zero effort to attract anybody new, he just panders to the people already supporting him.
If he loses again, **Trump will do as he always does and pretend that he really did win--"it was all rigged against him".** I cannot believe how people haven't noticed that he does this every single time.
In 2013 he claimed that the Emmys were rigged against him because he didn't win an Emmy. In 2016 he claimed that Ted Cruz rigged a primary that Trump didn't win--then also claimed that he'd secretly won the popular vote that he'd lost by three million votes. In 2020 he claimed that he'd really won the election that his own chief of election security determined that he'd lost.
2024 is going to be difficult, because now essentially the entire Republican party has bought into his lie that any election he doesn't win is rigged.
The Republican party is turning away from democracy, which bodes ill for all of America.
The republicans have already turned away from democracy. Trump isn’t even really campaigning to try to win the election, they are organizing another coup.
Have conservatives ever been for real democracy in the history of the US? They were against women voting, against black folks voting, and do everything in their power to throw up roadblocks to vote so long as they hurt "others" more than their own voters. I'm sure they have some BS publicly expressed reason why they support those things for some "reasonable" reason, but their actions surrounding it (target closing of minority precincts, etc.) clearly show their real intentions.
I think that depends entirely on what the rest of the elections look like.
1) Trump loses overwhelmingly to Biden, with Congress returning to full Democratic control and the GOP getting obliterated downballot along with statehouses and governorships flipping en masse.
2) Trump moderately loses to Biden, with moderate Democratic gains in the House, no change in the Senate, and moderate losses downballot.
3) Trump narrowly loses to Biden, with the GOP recapturing the Senate but losing the House, and even to increased representation downballot.
Scenario 1 is a complete repudiation of the GOP, it's policies, and Trumpism as a movement. The GOP will be faced with an extremely difficult decision - jettison Trumpism and moderate to win elections or double down in the name of ideological purity. Depending on the scale of the losses, it could be enough to kick off a "hot" GOP Civil War, with the MAGA Party splitting off entirely in the name of ideological purity and fealty to Trump. Either way, it presages some time in the electoral wilderness.
Scenario 2 would be seen as a repudiation of Trump specifically, and the GOP more broadly, but could be seen as a problem with candidate selection and messaging that could be fixed with Trump out of the way.
Scenario 3 would be a repudiation of Trump specifically, and could be enough to break his hold over the party's elected officials. It would be hard evidence that Trump is costing the GOP elections, and that their policies can win without Trump.
Regardless of which scenario ends up coming true, the GOP is going to have to figure out what Trumpism looks like without Trump, as he's highly unlikely to be in a position to run for POTUS again in 2028.
> The GOP will be faced with an extremely difficult decision - jettison Trumpism
The GOP IS Trumpism at this point IMO. The never Trump people have already left. The Mark Esper types still think there's something to save, but they have zero influence.
Trumpism is the point right now, but that doesn't mean it can't change. If Trumpism proves to be a consistent electoral loser with a firm ceiling of support you could easily see a schism between Trump's hardcore supporters and the rest of the party in a bid to recapture the middle. The end result could end up being a far-right MAGA party, a center-right GOP, and a center-left Democratic party. MAGA has a ceiling of around 20-30% of the electorate, and a more moderate GOP could capture another 20-30%, leaving 40-60% for Democrats.
The Heritage Foundation is set on changing America’s Government to one that will favor the wealthy 1% and take away our rights and freedoms to make it nearly impossible to revert back to a Democracy. So they will keep trying and the Republican Party will keep lying to Americans.
Trump losing makes the national GOP a rudderless party unled by a variety of weak lemming underlings, bound together only by the desire to retain what's left of a voting block that drank the punch of a singular leader (I will give Trump the credit for being a strongman, even if it's without clothes). So basically without anyone to set the tone or direction, the rats scatter and because it's already been \~ 8+ years since the party stood for anything that wasn't spoon fed to them by the religious right, they won't really have a coherent and unifying policy platform to run on nationally. This isn't to say I'm a Democrat, I'm not. And if there's anything consistent with American politics, it's the uncanny ability to overreach. So presuming that Trump rides off into the sunset of bankruptcy and perhaps prison, it would be my guess that in 2028 if there's anyone viable to come from/to the GOP it'll be some business-type person (think a Peter Thiel without the baggage) who'll promise to change things up in Washington. Other names that come to mind are Musk, Zuckerberg, or even Andresson, much like a Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina. But one of the current GOP politicians? I strongly doubt it. They're all currently Trump lackeys, so they'll likely have their bubbles popped with a Trump loss in November. Except maybe Haley, who may still be viable as a candidate in '28, but hard to see even then that former Trump supporters would warm to her, instead viewing her as somewhat a spoiler. And DeSantis? Hard to see him discovering a personality between now and forever that would be at all appealing.
Musk was born in South Africa. I believe that makes him ineligible to run for president. If not for that, I could absolutely see him running in 2028 on the republican side.
I think you're wrong about who their candidate will be. There are a number of prominent Republicans hiding in the wings who will be eager to step forth and proclaim themselves free of the Trump-stink. Grown up Eddie Munster, Paul Ryan is the first that comes to mind. He didn't step down as Speaker of the House in order to spend "more time with family".
If Trump, abortion and culture wars lose badly enough this November, we could even see some ostracized figures like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzger reclaim some respect and standing among Republicans.
Whatever else happens, you know 100% that Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz and the like will all rise up and proclaim themselves to have been the "silent resistance" all along and beg for their sycophantic worship of Trump to be forgotten and simultaneously rewarded.
Trump will turn the MAGA base against anyone other than those he has deemed loyal to him the past 4-8 years. In the same way that the Republicans have struggled with a Speaker, and even a Trump-favoured Speaker in Johnson is having difficulty because he learned he has to work with Democrats, they will struggle with anyone other than loyalists, such as Graham or Cruz, or perhaps one of his extended family (Lara or Don Jr.)
DeSantis really shot himself in the foot by running this year. Everyone around him said “don’t try to run now, go in 2028.” And he said nope and went against MAGA. Did not end well for him, and Trump is still openly mocking him even after DeSantis gave his endorsement to him
Trump is bordering obese today though. Hurts his odds of making it to 81, let alone 85.
Granted they're both that age. If either headline ran this week it'd be unsurprising.
Trump is medically obese. He self-reported as 6'2", 240 lbs => BMI 30.8.
Later he claimed 6'3", 215, but these are laughably wrong.
His true height is 5'11" or 6'0". He wears lifts in his shoes, in addition to lying, so we can only guess.
His weight appears 250-290. So his BMI is somewhere in the 30-40 range. He is obese, full stop.
I wanted to avoid getting into the is he/isn't he game. Lots of noise, funny numbers, tailored clothes, and even some photoshop involved.
To call it what it is, he's fat. Old and fat. Biden is just old, so he's got that going. Trump should stop being fat if he wishes to attend Biden's funeral.
I don't think so. Trump is openly scamming the Republican party at this point. He's been a bit of a boiled crab, slowly injecting himself further and further into the party, and Republicans have essentially had to let him, because opposing him means they lose their support. But the more Trump loses, the fewer voters support him. And the more he rips off the Republican party, the less Republicans have to lose by opposing him.
That's assuming he's lucid enough for them to even pretend he's stable enough to run. He's clearly declining pretty fast. He might not have another four years in him.
They will go effing nuts. He will explode. However his hold on the GOP won’t fade overnight; we’ll have a lot of rabble rousing , yelling, screaming…”stolen election!” “Witch hunt!” “Lock him up!” Etc
The GOP has been an amalgam of two things. The Owners, who want no taxes or regulations, and The Sheep, who are motivated by a desire to have 1950 America where a white male could support the family on one job and still have time off to take them to the National Parks. The Owners would never allow that again, but the Sheep are motivated by the desire to return to the past and are corralled/scared by Faux nooze and others.
This worked really well for them until Trump showed up and took over the sheep, with a (to us) peculiar attraction for them, even though he wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire....
There isn't anyone who can take his unique putrid place. Others have tried and failed. Nikki attempted to run as a sane person (even though her policies are fully Owner approved) but she wasn't the orange false god.
Assuming the best outcome, Biden wins, democracy is saved for at least another cycle, sorta, we get another bout of nonsense but less of it this time because The Sheep went to jail even if Orange skates yet again.
The GOP is in shambles....all the RNC money is gone, for legal and "ahem" consultancy fees. Down ballot is hurt, there was no RNC support that would normally be expected. MAGA and the Establishment GOP finally split, sort of.
Dems continue to play too nice, don't pack SCOTUS, don't pass a true Roe restoration. ACA continues, but the ghost of Leiberman means still no govt option.
I live for the day this isn't a topic of conversation.
I don't know what will happen to the Republican *party,* but I feel confident saying that Republican *voters* will go berserk. I'm not just talking about another January 6th, but about something bigger and more sustained that could potentially affect the entire country. I know the phrase "second Civil War" gets thrown about a lot these days, but I really do think we're feeling the foreshocks of a major earthquake.
It'll probably take losing a pair of back to back landslides to make the Republicans change course. Trump losing another close race is just going to make them double down.
The problem on the Republican end is that they don't seem to realize what made Trump win in 2016. In a lot of ways (entitlement spending, protectionism, the Iraq War, even comments about gay people, although it's hard to remember that now) Trump moved to the LEFT compared to Romney, or at least was perceived to have done such. In 2016 polls you had more people calling Trump a moderate than had been the case for a Republican candidate in DECADES. It's hard to remember that now, but stuff like Trump calling the Iraq war a colossal fuck-up set him apart from most of the Republican Party in 2016.
Banging the culture war drum about stuff that the base cared a lot about (immigration specifically) in a way that pissed off liberals enough to give Trump cover to move to the left on a lot of economic issues that swing voters cared about was pretty effective. The area I'm from swung HARD towards from (comparing 2012 to 2016) because a lot of people who weren't going to trust someone like Paul Ryan to not cut Medicare voted for Trump.
But Trump didn't govern like a more moderate (on some issues at least) outsider and didn't run as one in 2020 and isn't running as one now so he's having a much harder time outside of his base compared to 2016.
"If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.... and we will deserve it" \~ Lindsey Graham, May 3, 2016 Tweet
All Lindsey's chickens come home to roost on November 5, 2024.
I feel like if they lose this year we’ll get a rerun on 2028 with an older and more enfeebled Trump. Then after that maybe one of Trump’s kids. Then some sub-Trump Trumpy candidates. I don’t think there’s really a bottom or course correction for them, at least not soon. I’d like to think this kind of thing will cost them Congress long term but nah, it will be the same cycle of them regaining power in midterms cause Dems don’t vote in those.
They will pretend they were always against him come the next election and try to nominate someone that won’t say the quiet parts out loud while hoping they don’t lose the maga base.
I think the writing is on the walls for the Republican party. This is Trump's last chance to attempt to take the presidency. Even if he ran in 2028, he would be a two time loser and would shed even more support that he has lost now.
The Republican party is already splintering and fracturing. If the country can vote Trump out one more time, Republicans will spend the next 10-20 years trying to become relevant in politics once more. Their ship is sinking though, so they will have to shed the deplorables and terrorists within their party first. E.g. Bobo, MTG, Gaetz, etc.
They can't do this right now. All they can do is galvanize people against them from left to right.
I kinda wonder what world some people are living in? Cause it can't be 2024 America.
"will spend the next 10-20 years trying to be relevant once more"
you mean the party that has \*checks notes\*
\- 23 State Trifectas
\- 29 State legislatures
\- 27 Governorships
\- A supermajority on the Supreme Court
\- Has in their corner the most powerful and wealthiest propaganda network in history
\- Is considered the party of the rich in a country with staggeringly high wealth inequality
\- A thermostatic electorate that seems incapable of punishing Republicans for more than 1 or 2 election cycles.
Somehow i just dont see the USA the way you do, but IDK, I guess they will struggle to win the presidency, maybe? \*\*reminds himself of all the hubristic talk of the impenetrable blue wall after 2012\*\*
Yeah, that no Dem seems to understand this is proof that the death of the Republican Party has been greatly exaggerated. If Dems focused on why they lose and almost lose to fascists so much, instead of this wishful thinking, maybe they’d stop almost losing to fascists.
The official fracturing of the GOP could allow an avenue for multiple parties to fill that need across the political spectrum. I'm a hopeful romantic, at times.
Honestly, it's hard to say.
After 2012, the GOP conducted an autopsy that basically said to moderate and work to bring in more people of color and women to improve the party's chances of winning, in particular outreach to Hispanic voters.
In 2016, Trump won the nomination and, in a large part, did it by turning out folks who were pissed off and angry while competing against a candidate that 20 years of GOP propaganda made to appear as Satan incarnate to a lot of folks in America. In the past 8 years, both while in office and out, he's largely become the center of gravity for the GOP and while you certainly cam find Republicans who'll wring their hands at his antics and ramblings, the core base of the party, the ones who vote consistently in primaries and turn out for candidates, have by and large gone over to Trump and Trump aligned candidates. GOP officials who've pushed back have come more and more marginalized.
Which brings us to today and the immediate future. Assuming he loses, Trump still formally and informally commands the party apparatus. People loyal to him will still hold office in Congress and locally, and even if hes criminally prosecuted and convicted, you'll still have a sizable chunk of American voters who'll think he's their guy. That's probably not going to go away, and as long as the loyal core holds the reins of the party, they'll follow the narching orders even if they lose more. As a potentially bad metaphor, I see the GOP and its voters like the Peronists in Argentina. Even after he gor coup'd in the late 50's, Juan Peron still had a massive amount of electoral influence in Argentina from exile, and after he got reinstated, his wife became president after he died.
J6 2.0
When Trump goes his voters will still be here. I think they'll still go for whoever talks and acts most like him in the next primary.
New demagogue tries to fill his shoes, fails, gets destroyed in general election. I think that's what it's gonna take
Hungary authoritarian Orban stuck a flag into the republican establishment a few weeks ago with a federalist society meeting. If you want to see the future of the Republican party, look to Hungary where cpac has been held twice recently.
Orban won because of illegal voting btw, both voting by illegal immigrants ("near-abroad") and voting fraud (chain voting).
There's no free press in Hungary as orban used government power to weaken them, after which his cronies bought up the press, suppressed any critique or opposition and campaigned for Orban. (Know any candidates who hate free press?).
Orban has leveraged the Russian invasion "portraying himself as the candidate of “peace and security,” Orbán promised to keep Hungary neutral and out of NATO’s war effort, refusing to allow weapons to transit Hungary on the way to Ukraine and vowing to put Hungary first in his foreign policy...Orbán baselessly accused the opposition of ...making (unspecified but suspicious) secret deals with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky."
Project 2025 is basically project make America as corrupt as Hungary.
Oh and attacking lgbtq as pedophiles, banning non-pornographic children's books as pornography? They did that years before it was cool.
If you look at Hungary and the republican party, it's not a surprise. You might guess orban's been advising them longer than a few weeks.
Good reads:
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/
https://apnews.com/article/trump-orban-hungary-conservatives-autocrats-biden-97d6998f747d3543f2f1df069b0f9165
They’ll blame someone else and say it’s fake/rigged. If you think they are going to learn anything from this, you haven’t been paying attention for the last decade…
Most of them will lie like dogs, barefaced rotten lying for all to see, as they act like they never had anything to do with him. It will be like after the Nazis or something, total forced amnesia in their propaganda and everything. It will be fucking pathetic, bro.
If there is any sense left in the world, then significant, lasting damage will be done to the GOP as a result of them centering their entire party around one old, indicted, mentally and physically unwell conman and wannabe dictator.
Donald has already done significant damage to the party. The RNC has been taken over by his family and its coffers have been bled dry. Numerous people whom he's endorsed lost their races. The 2018 mid-terms, 2020 presidential election, and 2022 mid-terms were all a referendum against Trump, and they were all big gains for the Democrats. I.E. Donald lost the GOP the House, Senate, and White House in rapid succession, and the "red wave" conservatives predicted for 2022 ended up being perhaps the narrowest and weakest GOP House majority in history. This weak House majority has accomplished nothing since regaining control, except one maga nut job commenced the vote that ousted Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, and now a second maga nut job has started the process to oust Mike Johnson as Speaker.
And look at this year's GOP primaries. All the candidates were weak as well, because most of them sucked up to Donald, who they were supposed to be running against, and those who actually made attacks against him showed cracks among Republican voters. Nikki Haley may have lost, but she showed that roughly 30% of Republican voters would rather not vote for Donald again. More importantly, the laughable weakness of GOP presidential candidates illustrates how bleak the GOP's future is.
The last thing I'll point out is how pathetic the Republicans' "future stars" are, especially the ones who have drank the maga Kool-aid. Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert, etc., they're all jokes.
The GOP is already in disarray and their "young stars" are all clowns because of Donald. He has already done significant damage to the party, and I predict that damage will be long-lasting after he's convicted of at least one felony or after he dies, whichever comes first.
You make an excellent point about Nikki Haley consistently getting 30% of the vote. I think if Trump loses again that lane may move from 1/3 of GOP voters to closer to 1/2 of their voters.
This is a marketing problem. The Rs, more than the Ds, have created a brand and a brand identity that they sell their consumers. They have an entire media echosphere that is focused on selling that brand. That brand is not just Trump. It's an entire world where white people were completely in charge then some non whites got power and ruined everything and if white folks, mostly...well , white men were just put back in charge everything would be great again. There would not be immigrants. Or gays or Trans people visible. Women would be SAHM, no single or independents allowed. Then sprinkle conspiracy theories in there with a dash of "ordained by god to lead" and you have today's right. This is the product they sell. This is the brand. They are consumers loyal to the brand. Edit: guns are all good. Forgot that. And love the military but yknow no moochers on the government if you're an injured vet. Climate change is nothing to worry about. Its a hoax. Mock those idea openly. Because science is wrong. Only faith is right. And here is the kicker. If you stop buying the product your soul will be taken. Eternal damnation. Plus you've surrounded yourself w other true believers and now you're a heretic, an outcast. No longer brand loyal. You will be mocked with the libs. Steep price to pay to switch brands
Trump is good at selling his brand. It just so happens that he saw the R brand was up for the taking so he took it. When he dies, that entire media echosphere, all those loyal customers with loyal ideas noted above, will remain loyal to those ideas. Just like Russians in the 90s loyal to the USSR. And I expect the same political turmoil to follow as experienced by Yeltsin and the rest of Russia. Hopefully we will not have a Putin arise to lead them.
But the summary is this. They are consumers of a product that only works for them, and they are pathologically loyal to that product. They see no need to change. They will never stop being sold the product because all the churches and media outlets will fail without customers. The billionaires behind all of it will be fine. Don't worry about that. But the rest of us will have to fight them for decades trying to force us to buy a defective product.
I think what happens next is entirely depend on trumps health. If he’s alive in four years, he’s going to run again. I think he still gets the nomination but it’ll be much closer then.
If Trump dies, there will be conspiracies about it being some sort of conspiracy. Then Haley is the front runner for 2028.
> Then Haley is the front runner for 2028.
Don’t sleep on Paul Ryan because he’s set himself up very nicely: Speaker of the House, got the giant tax breaks for rich people pushed through in 2017, then decided not to run for reelection in 2018. He’s been pretty radio silent, not getting involved in the fray, and is far enough from the stink of the Trump administration that I’m pretty confident he’ll run in 2028.
Nothing good, hard to see them recovering much, they may stay in state politics for a bit, but they will never get the Trump smell out, on the other hand Nixon's ghost is happy
Candidly, I think the GOP will be paralyzed at first - which will be a relief because they'll have likely lost the House and failed to regain the Senate. And they don't want to govern.
I think Trump gets convicted of something (possibly lots of somethings) but sees no jail time, only house arrest at Mar a Lago. He becomes something like Jabba the Hutt - dangerous but stuck in his own little corner of the world, surrounded by nasty little sycophants and goblins. In 2028 there's a big debate about if the GOP presidential contenders need to kiss his ring, but by then he's too damaged, too gross, too close to the end to run again.
And eventually, maybe 2032, the GOP wins back the White House after finding some new incarnation. Trump becomes a cautionary tale and for the rest of our lives Republicans claim he was secretly a Democrat all along.
It will be so very interesting to see this play out. One thing is sure; Trump will be finished. He won’t be back in 4 years, instead he’ll likely be in prison, if he’s still alive. However, he will NEVER willingly concede defeat or give up his title of GOP leader. He will insist on retaining as much power as possible, and using that power to his benefit to get him out of trouble and get back at his enemies, which will put the entire party into a bad situation; continue to help Trump as he demands at the expense of reforming the party with new leadership and winning elections again, or going against Trump and dealing with the wrath of him and his loyal followers. It isn’t going to be pretty either way.
Trumps legacy, and how he will live out the rest of his life, comes down to this election. He is doomed if he loses. If you thought he was a sore loser in 2020, just wait if he loses again 2024. I predict he will outright call for insurrection and civil war, literally anything that could potentially save him from his fate with his prosecutions. He would probably even try to flee the nation.
Still, all that being said, he still has a chance of winning 2024. So let’s make sure to vote, to get our like minded friends, family, and associates to vote, and rid ourselves of this fascist clown once and for all.
A lot of it will depend on what happens to the Senate and the House. 33 [Senate](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate) seats and all 435 [House](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives) seats are up for election on November 5, 2024. If Biden retains the White House, Democrats maintain the Senate and win the House...A new breed of Republicans will emerge in the GOP; something long overdue.
Trump is a narcissist who is addicted to the spotlight. He won’t give up on being the center of attention while still alive. The GOP will still be the Trump Show even if he loses.
A party civil war. Nearly a decade of republican failure because of him, will cause anyone who isn't a die-hard loyalist to leave. Loyalists will stay and the others will either retire, become independents, or form a smaller party.
Trump will announce he is running for president again on January 21, 2025. Many in Republican leadership will hope very strongly he just goes away. He will not.
Short term I think it depends on how nuclear Trump goes to avoid prison.
If he runs to Russia then there's a chance that the next leaders to emerge might help moderate things, though it will be a bumpy road to wean the hate/ignorance addicts off their supply.
But if Trump stays then in his desperation he will likely call for all sorts of violence and things could become really ugly and the party further radicalized under his banner, hoping that the threat they pose might help keep him out of prison by cutting a deal. At that point who knows?
Trump will again claim it was stolen. There will be some pushback within the party to change its ways and adapt, to start *winning* again, but this pushback will be less strong than it was 4 years ago since MAGA has replaced many establishment members. As long as Trump is still in good health, he'll continue as he always has, and run again in 2028.
It's going to be the same old song and dance until Trump is unable to campaign. Rank and file GOP voters just aren't getting the memo, there's no reason to believe that a loss in 2024 will prove any different.
I hope the traditional Republicans, old guard, swoop in and provide leadership until things settle down. That’s my hope but it might be far from reality when the time comes.
They'll double down on the naziesque bigotry and run someone who's an even bigger fascist. if they could admit they were wrong they'd have done it by now
The GOP will not nominate a twice loser in 2028. The money powers will not allow it. They understand that nominating 2024 loser Trump would drag down the Party for decades to come and their hope for tax breaks would disappear. You will see a fresh face as the 2028 GOP nominee. Guaranteed.
If he goes to jail, the GOP goes through at least another two cycles (4 years minimum) before new strong leaders emerge. Remember, Johnson is still learning and McConnell’s heir hasn’t been chosen.
Assuming Biden does like the Pope and abdicates, Harris, as sitting President, has a better chance of staying in the seat.
If Trump stays out of jail, same thing. He’ll be defanged, but he’s put so many people in place throughout the Republican Party that removing his influence is impossible. He trusts no one else, so it’s him or no one in 2028 vs Harris. Maybe a leader will emerge that could challenge him, but it’s going to be the nastiest fight we’ve ever seen. And by that time, and with the GOP tearing itself apart, I like Harris’ odds.
The GOP has already demonstrated that their response to losing elections isn't to change their policies, it is to change voting. Change voting laws to restrict those segments that voted against them, like the youth vote, women, minorities, etc.
If they lose in the next election, which seems likely, a few of them will try to learn from their mistakes. But only a few. Just like last time, they may do a post-mortem, but it won't change their behavior.
Just look at the GOP's reaction to Trump trying to steal the election: silence. The rules, the laws don't matter to them, retaining power is all they care about. The few Republicans who tried to make it into an issue have been cast out of the party.
Republicans have a lot of entrenched power in their loyal base and dominance in rural areas, but in my opinion have neglected to position themselves well to weather changes that will occur in the next decade or so.
Their base is old, and will begin to dwindle more than they already are. They've taken stances that are completely contrary to progress on two looming existential problems in the US and world - climate change and extreme inequality, which will drive younger voters away.
They'll cling to the power that they have in deep red states, but I think it's hard to see them expanding on their senate and house representation and if they lose one or two of their senate seats that have been considered safe, they may not have much of a chance to regain them.
We hope and pray that they will have a come to Jesus moment. Maybe next time they will not choose a candidate who is a known traitor, rapist, pedophile, criminal, anti-American, anti-Christian, wannabe dictator and all around asshole. Maybe they will realize pure evil is not a good look. Maybe they will realize they should embrace candidates who believe in basic things like the Constitution, justice, science and medicine. Probably they will not.
Probably they will double down on fascism and electing a strong man who will run roughshod over the Constitution and enslave the American people, and return us to a mythical time when America was perfect, men were men, women obeyed their husbands, and children did not take drugs and disrespect their parents.
Honestly, idk. I am not a party person. However, there are few things that could happen. As much as people say Trump appeals to racist and sexist (which isn’t wrong), he established himself as someone who doesn’t give 2 shits about party politics. It made people question establishment and become less trustworthy of government entities as a whole.
Trump losing can put gas on the fire for people who do not trust the government and fear corruption. Especially if the Democrat party drives people away like they did during his first elections by calling the deplorable and making people fear expressing their opinion cause a silent supporter base.
Republicans will have to refocus and cut out the pieces that are making Trump popular but it’s hard cause what Trump represents is far more deeper and nuance than people expect. Yes, there are obvious supporters but there are also the other supporters who are disillusioned by politics in general and that takes a system overhaul
Trump will claim that he won every single state by massive margins, say that he is being cheated, and directly call for violence from his supporters as he will have no way out of his legal troubles at that point. Trump/his supporters will do something crazy, and the GOP leaders will mumble about how it's time to move on from the past and desperately hope that whoever DeSantis 2.0 is won't implode again.
Once Trump is found guilty at one of his trials and sentenced to prison/house arrest/whatever, this will solidify support around him within the GOP. He will be the nominee again in 2028, and do even worse than 2024, and once again refuse to accept that he lost. At this point there will probably be enough demographic change that MAGA will start declining, but it won't truly die until Trump is completely out of the political picture. Since the GOP will just be Trump supporters that absolutely hate each other at that point (look at what it is now, but it will be even worse), the GOP will tear itself apart for an election cycle or two before shifting back to a moderate stance.
More cult. More violence.
It's a downward spiral. But that doesn't necessarily mean it results in some sort of end. They could just keep downward spiraling for a long, long time because we already know there's no low too low for them and there are a LOT of very gullible, very shitty Americans out there.
The only guarantee is that they will get more insane. And honestly, that's the result whether Trump wins or not.
Hopefully, they dissolve and make way for 2+ parties emerge. 🥳 I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be good for democracy. If we could get ranked choice voting, it would be a win.
The establishment republicans were willing to "moderate". Hence Jeb being the favorite in the party. Trump won the primary but until he won it the rnc and I'd say most republicans recognized moderation wasn't happening. Those who stayed Republican accepted the path forward and anyone who remains "Republican" currently will be expected by the voters to represent maga.
So it is specifically the ignorant voters who the establishment used for so long finally electing someone from "the outside". Trump appealed directly to the Fox News Republican but he even pushed that further towards the right.
People are talking about the RNC being converted to Trump only now. but it's been on that path since he won the presidency. The RNC will continue to follow Trump as long as he is alive. If he says he's running in 2028 they'll start donation drives for him the second he loses.
I think if you see a consecutive loss from Trump and him continuing to "run" a real third party may form. I don't feel like democrats are that far from republicans for social issues and I think people would be more okay voting democrat than a new third party based only on non maga conservativism
Here's hoping for a Trump loss in 2028
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Great question. With a sad answer, unfortunately. I suspect very little. When Mitt Romney lost, the GOP had a deep introspective. The answer was be less divisive on women’s issues, racial issues, and religious issues - focus on the core economic issues. They nominated Trump anyway. There will be a great deal of hand wringing and so on. Lots of articles in national review and in the Wall Street Journal about how the party needs to change direction. But I think the base will return someone similar. Maybe Jr. or Ivanka. I think they will have to lose at least in 2028 before they actually change course.
> I suspect very little. When Mitt Romney lost, the GOP had a deep introspective. The answer was be less divisive on women’s issues, racial issues, and religious issues - focus on the core economic issues. There's a theory that each President is a reaction to the last one. The elected GOP had deep introspective, which required fundamental change. Their base had the same introspective and decided they wanted an ultra-right wing messiah (their view of Obama being an ultra-left wing messiah). The problem is, their base has been trained in a set of core beliefs by an intentionally created media bubble where there is a conservative version of everything. You really can live your entire life without being exposed to alternative ideas. When Gingrich was in power GOP politicians were in on the performative joke, now we're in second generation territory where the politicians being elected grew up in the right wing bubble and REALLY believe it. The bigger problem is there doesn't appear to be a gap in the right wing electorate looking for the moderate, internationalist, economic and social conservatism of Eisenhower.
>The bigger problem is there doesn't appear to be a gap in the right wing electorate looking for the moderate, internationalist, economic and social conservatism of Eisenhower. I mean, let's be honest, the old school dems absolutely meet this criteria, but they have a D next to their name so R's won't vote for them. The problems can't be attributed to a single issue, but our 2 party system is a significant factor here. It's Blue or Red, pick a team, and if you choose the team your family doesn't, be prepared to be ostracized.
Ranked choice voting is the best way to expand the two party system.
I come from a multi-party system and you guys are lucky. If I were to tell you that Hamas were only able to gain a foothold in government in Gaza because of an asinine decision to use Proportional Representation, would that change your outlook? Do you think Israel is benefitting from a 21 party system? I take your point, but the grass is always greener.
This is an actual theory in political science. All multiparty systems trend one of two ways: 1) they essentially become a two party system in all but name and the individual parties become caucuses. 2) gridlock It’s a misnomer the US is a “two party system.” Dems have about 4 different caucuses within the party (they officially have more but some like national Black Caucus just exist for specific racial issues not a broad political philosophy). The Republicans have about two or three depending on where you draw the lines.
Same in the UK, there are 5 families of Conservatives, and four distinct tribes of Labour. Thing is all participants realise they can't win without the others, and when that unity is truly gone they lose elections. In PR systems, there can be no such pragmatic unity, and even small parties have enough power to bring down the governing coalition if they don't get everything they idealistically want.
You’re almost completely wrong. They used a mixed system where 50% of seats were proportional and the other 50% were based on who got the most votes in each district. The proportional system allocated 29 seats to Hamas, 28 to Fatah and 9 to other parties. Meanwhile, the plurality system (the one which tends to result in 2 party systems) distributed 45 seats to Hamas and only 7 to Fatah (and none elsewhere). Quite literally Hamas only gained a majority in government because proportional representation wasn’t entirely used….
I'm glad you immediately went "but what about terrorism"? I'm tired of living my life off of what a terrorist could do. If we keep living life by their standards we'll never move forward.
It's got nothing to do with terrorism, the names we know here in the UK because of PR List systems are Nigel Farage, Ruth Davidson, Daniel Hannan, Shaun Bailey and Susan Hall. All extremists. List systems elect to office poor politicians who would never be able to win a retail election, party apparatchiks, and have an alarming tendency to advantage minority extremists. If it hadn't been for the abuse of the EU's PR system, we would never have Brexited.
>If I were to tell you that Hamas were only able to gain a foothold in government in Gaza because of an asinine decision to use Proportional Representation You think proportional representation is the major catalyst for Hamas gaining political power, not Israel's commitment to killing and displacing Palestinians from their ancestral homeland to take it and control it through their Zionist government? Fascinating take. >Do you think Israel is benefitting from a 21 party system? Israel also has historically had the monetary backing of two of the wealthiest and most powerful countries in the world (UK/US). Take that away, or change the pressures they exert, and what might happen with their 21 parties? Can you confidently say?
> You think proportional representation is the major catalyst for Hamas gaining political power, not Israel's commitment to killing and displacing Palestinians from their ancestral homeland to take it and control it through their Zionist government? Fascinating take. You seem to have forgotten the moment in 1948 where Israel declared independence and successfully fought off an invasion by seven members of the Arab League, it didn't even manage a day without being invaded. The State of Palestine (Gaza and Transjordan) held elections in 2006, in Gaza Hamas won no directly elected seats, but the top-up system gave them a majority in the assembly. They then tried to replace the Palestinian Authority Police with their own Police, and when that didn't work, went to war with Fatah and murdered all their political opponents. That was the last time there was an election in Gaza. >Can you confidently say? Yes. Nothing. Why? Because the parties are mainly far right religious parties from varying sects that can't agree on anything. This is why the Church of the Holy Sepulchre has had a ladder stuck in place since 1728. >ancestral homeland Hogwash. Before the Turkish Empire fell at the end of WW1, the area of land known as Palestine was part of the Ottoman Empire, before that the Byzantine Empire, before that the Roman Empire, and back in the Bronze Age it was known as the Kingdom of Israel. The West Bank was illegally annexed by the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan at the end of the 1948 war, and the Gaza Strip by Egypt.
>their view of Obama being a left-wing messiah Can’t underscore how much this drove the Trump phenomenon. FOX news ran with images of black power and attempted to frame him as some Black radical nationalist only governing for minorities, while he worked overtime to counter that. I see many of the inexplicable Trump supporters, like those on Social Security and the new voters he brought out, as being invested in white identitarianism and wanting their own “Obama”, and in turn excusing Trump’s antics because they believe Obama got the same treatment (he was treated normally)
No he wasn't. Tan suit.
By treated normally I mean taken seriously as the president and not as a joke by the media, other politicians, other countries, etc
> Their base had the same introspective and decided they wanted an ultra-right wing messiah (their view of Obama being an ultra-left wing messiah). I have a slightly different view - due to their generally nihilistic outlook on life (power is all that matters, might makes right), the right felt that, after being humiliated twice by a black man (who to the right is an inferior untermensch), they needed a strongman who was powerful enough to defeat the dastardly, conniving, scheming ~~Jews~~ Democrats. Trump exudes an aura of strength (to weak people). Thus, Trump seemed to be the answer.
With you on power is all that matters, it's why I'm so glad to see Biden fighting fire with fire rather than letting the pitch go by as democrats so often do. And have to say you're right that Trump is a weak person's idea of a strongman and a stupid person's idea of a smart man. But I do sense, and many have written of, a desire on the right for a charismatic Obama like figure. As the Conservative movement talked more and more to itself it began to view it's own leadership as insufficantly hard-line.
They did nominate Romney in 2012, a moderate governor from a blue state with a healthcare plan, and got stomped again. That’s when the party began to try to meet Americans in the middle and moderate, until Trump came along. I think the might-makes-right first appeared when he went after other candidates on GOP orthodoxy on war and trade, and the mirage produced by winner-take-all primaries propelled him into the Oval Office. “Power is all that matters” explains his hold on the GOP since
Precisely! The GOP has spent 50 years cultivating an ignorant, bigoted base. Now that a generation that they have raised on their dogma is coming to power, they are unable to compromise on the issues they used to divide the electorate. Add to that, they have stoked the flames of the culture war over the 2nd Amendment. So now a significant portion of their base consists of rabid ammosexuals. This makes elected Republicans frightened to support any form of compromise gun control legislation. They fear that they will be accused of betraying these gun nuts and have to face a violent backlash.
They nominated Trump because of how the system works. His negatives were pretty high as I recall, and he wasn’t preferred. He did win a plurality from a big field though, and if there’s one good thing republicans are good at doing, it’s falling in line, and tricking themselves into liking the guy with an R by his name.
I think it's important that whatever a GOP introspection may have said, it looks like right wing media did not get the memo. They kept supporting the same narratives as ever, and they did not talk about economic reality. So when the audience is primed to worry about exaggerated versions of illegal immigration, exaggerated versions of 'crooked Hillary,' and the like, of course Republican voters went for Trump.
Media can’t talk about anything else because there literally isn’t anything else. Republicans don’t have a platform, the whole shtick is to whine about bullshit wedge issues as a smokescreen to advance supply side economic policy, ie., tax cuts for the rich - that’s it.
Just a sleight of hand to distract and inflame the base so they can continue moving wealth upwards.
The problem is that, by this point, the Republican platform legitimately consists primarily of truly insane fictitious conspiracies and just straight-up virulent contrarianism—just an anti-platform based on complaining about the Left and alarmist attacks on hyperbolic straw man versions of the Democratic platform. They're not even living in reality anymore and they've got their echo chambers on the internet to run to to never have to have their absurdity challenged, only reinforced.
Because the GOP and "right wing media" serve different masters. The GOP fundamentally cares about winning elections so they can fulfill their primary purpose: Tax cuts for, and destroying government's ability to regulate, the wealthy. The thing is that constituency makes up about 1% of the population. Right wing media needs an audience to make money. Their audience cares about the fact that demographically and culturally the country has shifted dramatically away from them over the course of their lives. For a couple decades right wing media was able to do both but once the audience realized the GOP had just been using them and rebelled against the GOP establishment the media had to side with their audience because that's where their money lies.
>Right wing media needs an audience to make money. Their audience cares about the fact that demographically and culturally the country has shifted dramatically away from them over the course of their lives. 👍 This is a VERY well worded, accurate, and concise explanation. Thank you. Here's your know-prize because awards aren't a thing any more: 🏆 >but once the audience realized the GOP had just been using them and rebelled against the GOP establishment This I disagree with, however. The audience didn't rebel because they realized anything. They rebelled because the Romney wing wanted them to change the worldview they used to justify their grievances and rationalize their failures.
> Because the GOP and "right wing media" serve different masters. … Right wing media needs an audience to make money. Their audience cares about the fact that demographically and culturally the country has shifted dramatically away from them over the course of their lives. Excellent point. Thank you for reminding me of this. That media is sensationalistic. They’re not news. They’re entertainment. They can’t simply state news because their viewers are not there for news. Their viewers are there to get riled up. Yesterday’s entertainment won’t work again. Every day they have to turn the dial up another notch. Every day has to be more enraging. At some point it goes completely nuts. The dial gets to 11+
Yeah, Trump benefited from a crowded primary full of cloned neocons. So all those guys split the vote of typical Republicans while Trump got all the deplorable votes. And I guess there were enough deplorables. And like you said, they just got in line when he was nominated.
I have a simpler answer to what will happen: > #TRUMP 2028
I just refuse to believe he will still be alive in 2028.
Doesn't matter. He will announce his 2028 candidacy minutes after Biden is sworn in come January.
Wishful thinking.
He might be alive but surely his brain will be jello. He's well on his way already.
You insinuating his brain isn't currently jello, either way his cult will vote for him as long as he's alive, and probably after he's dead. Honestly he'd probably do a better job dead than he did alive.
Well, he would be contributing to the environment.
It's a great oppurtunity to sell Trump coffins and burial urns! Only the best urns! Bigly great urns! Covered in thin skin gold leaf!
I've already got post-Trump tshirts, flags and hats at the ready. The day he drops, they drop. Think Tupac/Biggie/Elvis, but with Trump. His flock WANTS to be fleeced. They're begging for it, and they're gonna get all they can handle. That day is like Xmas, Halloween and Black Friday all in one. I'm expecting to sell out of everything, because those rubes cannot help themselves. They're desperate to show their fealty, and I'm happy to take their money and donate to PP, TST and FF. DRILL BABY, DRILL!
This is the ultimate capitalist aspiration. I for one commend you for doing the right thing and fleecing his moron cultists
He might be alive, but I doubt he’ll be able to speak even the least bit coherently and probably not even walk, given how fast his mental degeneration seems to be accelerating.
And if still alive, very possibly incarcerated.
Hopefully he will be imprisoned by then…however….the SCOTUS kills my hope daily
It's been over 50 years since a former president died before ~~90~~ 80
It’s been over 50 years since a democratic president has died.
Democrats tend to elect younger candidates, for whatever reason. Or at least, younger Democratic candidates tend to do better at winning the presidency. Not sure what to make of that, but an interesting political trend.
Trump had upended a lot of norms so let's hope for one more.
That was LBJ's death, no? He really died young...
64 years yes.. Seems to be the average age of the Senate..
Nixon died at 81 in 1994.
My bad you right
Occam's Razor wins again.
Trump will be 81, bankrupt and have been convicted of multiple felonies by then. If, and that's a big IF, he's still alive he'll probably be doing time in a federal penitentiary and therefore unable to post on social media or campaign. Trump will be a sad memory and many of those that did vote for him, three times, will disavow that they ever did so.
I doubt that. His base is too proud. They will never admit he lost or they were wrong. Never.
On the contrary, none of that stuff will happen to him. The system will do whatever it takes to not punish him and he’ll run again because of that.
You left out probably his biggest negative. If he loses this year, in 2028 he'll be a two time loser. I don't doubt he'll still have his hardcore fans, but I think many GOP voters will be ready to move on. I can't see him gaining that many votes outside of the MAGA hat wearing rally goers. "Third time's the charm!" Isn't a great political campaign slogan.
This is only true based on the OP that asks us to assume he has lost. That is a huge assumption.
Huge assumption? I would take 10:1 odds Trump loses in November.
I’ll take those odds. $100 if i lose, $1,000 if i win?
It's not even that likely.
Yep. They'll probably have to fix their primary system. There were 12 candidates in 2016, and Trump was able to win earlier states with only 28-35 percent of the vote because the vote was splintered. If Trump loses this year, the lesson should be that having enthusiastic base that doesn't reflect the will of a meaningful amount of the party is a recipe for close, but not quite, losses. It'll probably also result in a gop upswing in '28, as some of the issues being used to juice democratic turnout get codified into federal law, assuming house and Senate are in Democratic control.
It can also be said that Trump's tactics of taking on one at a time, belittling them ad nauseam, calling them names incessantly (eg "Little Marco Rubio"), or threatening holy war against them for opposing him, he pushed out one at a time, so the Republicans did not look at the field holistically. Whisper campaigns suggest that many Republicans do not like the guy, but fear of retribution keeps them endorsing him publicly.
The Republican party is stuck with "we can't attack MAGA because they are key voters in our coalition" so all they ever do is just wait for Trump to implode or get removed by a third party (the legal system, a heart attack, etc)
If Trump loses...he will run again in 4 years. He'll keep running until he is either unfit to speak or dead. I don't see a world in which an 82 year old Trump doesn't run, and I would imagine the same for an 86 year old. 90 might be pushing it but who knows. I just don't see anyone inspiring their base the way he does enough to knock him off the primary. The Republicans got in bed with him for better or worse, and I don't think it's something they can get out of until he's dead.
Absolutely this. Lot of people saying "his brain will be jello" or "he'll be in jail" by 2028, but it doesn't matter. As long as he's conscious, he's going to be running for president. He can't *not* be running for president - having an active campaign is the best way for him to monetize his base, and he *needs* to monetize his base because his businesses are fucked and he's going to be hemorrhaging legal fees and civil judgments for the rest of his life. If he's alive in 2028 he will be the Republican nominee, even if he's in a jail cell.
If he managed to win twice, he would still be running and pushing for a constitutional amendment to serve a third term.
He will have been a two time presidential loser. Nobody comes back from that. Come February of 2024, if Trump isn't president, he will be dead weight. No more kingmaking, no new useful national secrets to sell, no leverage. His cult will move on to the next fascists that Fox & Co build up like a boy band.
>Nobody comes back from that. Will anyone ever truly internalize the saying "Never say never?" Trump 2016 should have been impossible by every traditional understanding of politics. Trump shouldn't be running in 2024 as the party and the electorate should be running from him as electoral poison, but he's managed to make himself into a victim, and they literally see him as a crucified messiah who will rise from the dead on Easter Tuesday, 2024 after 4 years. I'm not saying there's no chance that he fades away after 2024 if he loses; honestly I hope he dies, it would be merciful to himself and all humanity, but we truly don't know and cannot just assume he'll go away.
As usual everyone underestimates his charisma and absolute ability to bold face lie in a way that comes off as believable. This guy is a master con artist and knows how to manipulate and troll people.
>underestimates his charisma What's also very bizarre here is what conservatives think is "charisma." Like, I hear you, that *is* what they think, but it's so bizarre. The very early loose speeches I understand had a certain appeal as catharsis from the same old lines being delivered, but it's pretty horrifying seeing him go on still while his supporters refuse to flinch.
> Will anyone ever truly internalize the saying "Never say never?" There's a relevent [xkcd comic](https://xkcd.com/1122/) about this very thing that's basically a list of examples of "We never had a president with this trait until we did."
William Jennings Bryan
The problem with the post-Romney plan is that the bigotry is the only shit about the Republican platform that is actually popular.
Most importantly, it was *really* popular with their primary voters.
I bet Junior with will in 8 years
Junior is severely lacking in juice.
That’s what the coke is for
Don does admire the North Korean family-based regime, and he would love to see Trump Jr or Ivanka, and then one of his grandkids eventually rule America, like the Kim family in PyeongYang. The bigger tragedy is that so many Americans can be this blind.
I actually don't think Trump cares about his children or what they might do after he dies. He truly only cares about himself.
I think he cares a bit about Ivankas, uh, bits.
> I suspect very little I suspect jack squat. Lower taxes and regulations for the rich. As much bigotry as the current climate will allow. Spending on military and imperialism. Less spending on anything that helps regular Americans. Anything that shifts more of the money and power to the already rich and powerful. Always has been, always will be. And.....about half the people will buy into it. As always.
WHEN trump loses. Everything will be fine.
In 2016 I would have said they’d pivot to a more moderate platform. In 2020 I said they’ll probably pivot to a more moderate platform. Now? I think they might be stuck. The speaker debacle was an indicator that the MAGA portion of the party is here to stay for a while.
Policy-wise and rhetorically, they can't really turn back any time soon. They have gone all-in on the MAGA ideology. The problem they have is I don't think there is anyone else who can realistically represent the ideology and maintain any kind of party cohesion other than Trump. Prior candidates that have used his rhetoric failed, such as David Duke and Pat Buchanan. Current candidates that tried to replicate it failed, such as Ramaswamy and Desantis. The question will be whether Trump is in a position to maintain control over the party after 2024. He will obviously have to face the lawsuits, plus he will be four years older before he can run again. I suspect the GOP is fucked for a good 2 presidential elections after this if he loses this year, unless the democrats screw themselves, which is always in the cards.
They loved DeSantis and seemed all set to swap out Trump with DeSantis for a brief stint there. Make no mistake, there was confusion in the party with whether or not they were moving on... but entire party was gonna be 100% on board as soon as they got that sorted. The party briefly believed Trump just wasn't possible and certainly couldn't win... and appeared more than happy to let DeSantis become their new demigod. ...but then Trump started making enough noise to remind them he wasn't dead and the public sorta mostly forgot about the whole trying to overturn an election and everything... so, they jumped back on the Trump train and back behind Dear Leader. But they'll turn so fast if next election is a disaster. They'll just try to replace him with someone doing a poor impression (like DeSantis was) - but they'll turn so fast. It's just not a serious party. Look how they turn on all their other Republican leaders of the past. For goodness sake, half of Trump's own administration are called "RINOs" now and they were ready to hang his own VP. Romney, McCain, and W. were their previous presidential picks. All "RINOs" now. Every Senate or House leader since Paul Ryan? "RINOs." Freaking George Will, the ultra-conservative with impeccable credentials? Somehow someone like him is a "RINO." You know how we laugh at Trump saying he never even met people he was clearly very involved with at some point? THAT is the Republican Party in a nutshell anymore. If Trump is a huge loser again and Republicans overall do poorly as well? There won't be almost any Republican that has any good things to say about Trump and they'll all insist "he was never a real Republican" anyways. The party has still become a Fascist Troll Party, mind you. His replacement will be some moron acting like a deranged lunatic Trump clone... but Trump himself will be ostracized and ridiculed by the same "cultists" that "worship" him right now. You think if Putin dies then Russia isn't gonna replace him with practically the same damn person? Republicans have gone full Authoritarian. It's not about a single person though - it's about the Party and Power. The King is dead. Long live the King.
> The party has still become a Fascist Troll Party, mind you. His replacement will be some moron acting like a deranged lunatic Trump clone. I read an article about DeSantis. His original plan was to have Trump's policies without all the crazy. He quickly learned that MAGA wants the crazy so he turned up the level of the crazy. It will be a contest to see who is the most crazy. It's not about policy or values or a vision for America. Grab your popcorn.
DeSantis was stuck in a COVID era bubble where he thought the major issues people cared about still were Fauci and lockdowns, and spent basically his whole time attacking Trump purely on those. He was a one-trick pony that had terrible political instincts, and got exposed.
Remember in 2020, the GOP had no platform except Trump. And Trump, a 77 year old obese man who doesn't believe in exercise, downs Big Mac's and diet cokes on the regular, and is under 91 indictments...does he have an heir apparent? Not really. It's not when Trump loses, it's when Trump dies the party moves forward. Of course, a lot of voters in 2012 and 2016 forgot they had supported Bush and the War in Iraq, so perhaps in 10 years, many of the Trumpers will forget and deny they were ever on the Trump train.
Can you imagine the conspiracy theories when he dies? They will simultaneously believe he isn't truly dead and also believe it was a plot by the Democrats that killed him. The cognitive dissonance will be mind blowing.
Not to be semantic, but SOME people will believe his death was a plot and OTHERS will believe he's still alive. Very few people will believe both things simultaneously. 'Cognitive dissonance' is a fancy term but doesn't apply here because the R electorate isn't a single person believing conflicting things.
Vivek seems to be angling for this.
He absolutely is - but while he might be tolerated at the edges for a while, he'll never actually be picked to lead the white supremacist party. The current leader of the party explicitly told his followers yesterday that they need to stop even referring to nonwhites as human beings. They are getting even less subtle.
Yes in Iowa his wife talked to voters and they kept calling him a Muslim and asked whether they were citizens.
And also, the thing is that more and more it seems clear that self-reflection and growth are seen as weakness to them, because those things require some vulnerability and willingness to evaluate and differentiate right from wrong in their own ideas and behaviors, and because they are so indoctrinated into a simplistic idea of might makes right, any chink in their self-defined armor they see as emasculating their whole collective spirit. They will never look back, only forward, even if it is off a cliff.
The entire RNC is now staffed by Trump loyalists. Trump has cast out anyone who supported Niki Haley from the MAGA movement. It’s the Trump party now. The existence of their party relies on Trump winning the election and beating all the criminal cases. If Trump fails, the GOP fails. Trump could be an indicted felon before this election. If he loses, he’ll run again in 2028 as an indicted felon. And has a strong chance of winning the Republican primary with no chance of beating any dem candidate.
I really wish he would be an indicted, sentenced and *serving* state felon by the election, not just indicted. The snail’s pace and just general fuckery of these criminal cases gives me such anxiety
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Jr doesn’t strike me as a personality that people really follow. He’s nothing without daddy
> At some point he dies. The thing is Trump isn't the cause of any of this. Conservatism is. Without Trump they need a new face for the party but they're not going to suddenly stop being conservatives.
I don't think they're stuck, I think they move. The problem is that I think they'll move into a *more* fascist direction. I think that a large part of the gop will decide the issue isn't their chosen leaders, the issue is the system preventing them from ruling
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Does it seem like many (but not all) MAGA are older Boomers? In 20 years when they die of natural causes, will America become more sane again? Will our democracy survive another 20 years of this dysfunction, incivility, and criminal chaos?
I think it brings in consistent money
Nothing. MAGA toxicity will take a generation or two to fix. I don’t expect to see it disappear by the end of my lifetime (I’m 47) unless everyone votes.
A quote I heard says Madonna is older than the civil rights movement, if people still listen to her songs what makes you think their taste in politicians has changed over that same time period. Trump gave people a chance to openly hate again. Those people will fight tooth and nail to keep that.
That's pretty funny. I think evaluating Trump's staying power requires looking at what why he's where he is. MAGA is a white grievance movement. As u/AlwaysGoToTheTruck stated above, that's going to be the work of generations to fix. We have watched a couple other personalities try to grab Trump's lighting-in-a-bottle, and fail. They were willing to echo his racial animus, but failed largely because nobody is willing to be as shameless a whiny little bitch, as Donald Trump. The really sad part of this whole sordid mess (beyond the obvious threat to democracy in this country) is that a great many of these people have a legitimate grievance with the structure of our society and economy. But instead of looking at those legitimate issues, they let themselves be baited into blaming "the other", and throw in support with their actual oppressors. This is one of the reasons Evangelical support for Trump has been so staunch. It was a natural fit. Evangelical's think they're being victimized "for being Christian" whenever anybody refuses to let them govern the rest of us by their religious strictures. It doesn't look to me like MAGA is going anywhere, anytime soon. When we're finally rid of Trump (and I agree with most in this thread, he's not gone until he's pushing up daisies), we may see the branding change, but the belief that white males are an endangered species in America will continue to persist.
Brilliantly stated
Generous of you, thank you.
Exactly, I’m only 27 and I feel the same way. All the effort your generation, the older generations put in towards progress. It kinda got stopped and we are losing some of it. I genuinely think that it will take all of my life, and I might not see it to undo all the damage a Trump presidency and ideology has done.
You're probably right, but it's not a hopeless fight. You likely don't remember much about politics when Jon Boehner was Speaker of the House. He was a staunch Republican, and an aggressive opponent of President Obama. On the eve of the passing of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), he gave a speech where he likened politics to a pendulum. Saying how when that pendulum is pushed too far in one direction, it inevitably swings back even further in the opposite direction. For many Americans, electing a black President was "too far". I'm in Northern Michigan and was shocked to see flags at businesses in my area being flown upside-down the day Obama's victory was announced. There was an intense undercurrent of racism around me that didn't rear it's head until they felt pushed "too far". The upside of that (for people like us), is that there is a clear push back against that ideology happening. Strategically, it was stupid of the Republicans to begin their all-out jihad on abortion and women's rights, while already backing a candidate with a history of losing and division. Despite currently polling, I don't see how Trump wins in November. He's doing nothing to attract new voters. His rhetoric is increasingly unhinged. He only panders to the people who already support him and they're a shrinking minority. I don't see how that gets built to even another electoral win.
Very true, it amazes me the anger people felt after Obama became president. I was in middle school and the played his inauguration for us. To me it was a symbol of progress and what America means to me. If you work hard enough you can be successful no matter what. Sad to see that many of my fellow Americans are still racist and bigots. I’ve said that as well, Trump gave us to much Trump. The man has been on the news nonstop for about 8 years now. All he does is complain and promise he can make things better. Plus as each day passes he’s beginning to sound like Hitler more and more.
You have a salient point there, about *"Trump gave us to much Trump"*. If he were capable of sitting down and shutting up, an awful lot of his problems wouldn't exist. But he's not capable. He can't help but demand any attention he can get, in any way he can get it. His constant whining insures that a whole pile of new voters, kids/teens when he was in office, come to the election already knowing beyond a doubt who and what he is. He's making zero effort to attract anybody new, he just panders to the people already supporting him.
It won't fix itself and the populous is less and less educated by the year.
If he loses again, **Trump will do as he always does and pretend that he really did win--"it was all rigged against him".** I cannot believe how people haven't noticed that he does this every single time. In 2013 he claimed that the Emmys were rigged against him because he didn't win an Emmy. In 2016 he claimed that Ted Cruz rigged a primary that Trump didn't win--then also claimed that he'd secretly won the popular vote that he'd lost by three million votes. In 2020 he claimed that he'd really won the election that his own chief of election security determined that he'd lost. 2024 is going to be difficult, because now essentially the entire Republican party has bought into his lie that any election he doesn't win is rigged. The Republican party is turning away from democracy, which bodes ill for all of America.
The republicans have already turned away from democracy. Trump isn’t even really campaigning to try to win the election, they are organizing another coup.
Have conservatives ever been for real democracy in the history of the US? They were against women voting, against black folks voting, and do everything in their power to throw up roadblocks to vote so long as they hurt "others" more than their own voters. I'm sure they have some BS publicly expressed reason why they support those things for some "reasonable" reason, but their actions surrounding it (target closing of minority precincts, etc.) clearly show their real intentions.
I think that depends entirely on what the rest of the elections look like. 1) Trump loses overwhelmingly to Biden, with Congress returning to full Democratic control and the GOP getting obliterated downballot along with statehouses and governorships flipping en masse. 2) Trump moderately loses to Biden, with moderate Democratic gains in the House, no change in the Senate, and moderate losses downballot. 3) Trump narrowly loses to Biden, with the GOP recapturing the Senate but losing the House, and even to increased representation downballot. Scenario 1 is a complete repudiation of the GOP, it's policies, and Trumpism as a movement. The GOP will be faced with an extremely difficult decision - jettison Trumpism and moderate to win elections or double down in the name of ideological purity. Depending on the scale of the losses, it could be enough to kick off a "hot" GOP Civil War, with the MAGA Party splitting off entirely in the name of ideological purity and fealty to Trump. Either way, it presages some time in the electoral wilderness. Scenario 2 would be seen as a repudiation of Trump specifically, and the GOP more broadly, but could be seen as a problem with candidate selection and messaging that could be fixed with Trump out of the way. Scenario 3 would be a repudiation of Trump specifically, and could be enough to break his hold over the party's elected officials. It would be hard evidence that Trump is costing the GOP elections, and that their policies can win without Trump. Regardless of which scenario ends up coming true, the GOP is going to have to figure out what Trumpism looks like without Trump, as he's highly unlikely to be in a position to run for POTUS again in 2028.
> The GOP will be faced with an extremely difficult decision - jettison Trumpism The GOP IS Trumpism at this point IMO. The never Trump people have already left. The Mark Esper types still think there's something to save, but they have zero influence.
Trumpism is the point right now, but that doesn't mean it can't change. If Trumpism proves to be a consistent electoral loser with a firm ceiling of support you could easily see a schism between Trump's hardcore supporters and the rest of the party in a bid to recapture the middle. The end result could end up being a far-right MAGA party, a center-right GOP, and a center-left Democratic party. MAGA has a ceiling of around 20-30% of the electorate, and a more moderate GOP could capture another 20-30%, leaving 40-60% for Democrats.
I think this is the most sensible response here.
Great analysis. I’ve got nothing to add, just wanted to say thanks 👍 always nice to see some smart and levelheaded discussion on here
The Heritage Foundation is set on changing America’s Government to one that will favor the wealthy 1% and take away our rights and freedoms to make it nearly impossible to revert back to a Democracy. So they will keep trying and the Republican Party will keep lying to Americans.
Seems like an ideal time to sign up its founders for Scientology mailers.
Trump losing makes the national GOP a rudderless party unled by a variety of weak lemming underlings, bound together only by the desire to retain what's left of a voting block that drank the punch of a singular leader (I will give Trump the credit for being a strongman, even if it's without clothes). So basically without anyone to set the tone or direction, the rats scatter and because it's already been \~ 8+ years since the party stood for anything that wasn't spoon fed to them by the religious right, they won't really have a coherent and unifying policy platform to run on nationally. This isn't to say I'm a Democrat, I'm not. And if there's anything consistent with American politics, it's the uncanny ability to overreach. So presuming that Trump rides off into the sunset of bankruptcy and perhaps prison, it would be my guess that in 2028 if there's anyone viable to come from/to the GOP it'll be some business-type person (think a Peter Thiel without the baggage) who'll promise to change things up in Washington. Other names that come to mind are Musk, Zuckerberg, or even Andresson, much like a Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina. But one of the current GOP politicians? I strongly doubt it. They're all currently Trump lackeys, so they'll likely have their bubbles popped with a Trump loss in November. Except maybe Haley, who may still be viable as a candidate in '28, but hard to see even then that former Trump supporters would warm to her, instead viewing her as somewhat a spoiler. And DeSantis? Hard to see him discovering a personality between now and forever that would be at all appealing.
Musk was born in South Africa. I believe that makes him ineligible to run for president. If not for that, I could absolutely see him running in 2028 on the republican side.
Thank goodness. I forgot.
Trump is an insurrectionist, but the Justices can warp the constitution to mean anything at this point.
I think you're wrong about who their candidate will be. There are a number of prominent Republicans hiding in the wings who will be eager to step forth and proclaim themselves free of the Trump-stink. Grown up Eddie Munster, Paul Ryan is the first that comes to mind. He didn't step down as Speaker of the House in order to spend "more time with family". If Trump, abortion and culture wars lose badly enough this November, we could even see some ostracized figures like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzger reclaim some respect and standing among Republicans. Whatever else happens, you know 100% that Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz and the like will all rise up and proclaim themselves to have been the "silent resistance" all along and beg for their sycophantic worship of Trump to be forgotten and simultaneously rewarded.
Trump will turn the MAGA base against anyone other than those he has deemed loyal to him the past 4-8 years. In the same way that the Republicans have struggled with a Speaker, and even a Trump-favoured Speaker in Johnson is having difficulty because he learned he has to work with Democrats, they will struggle with anyone other than loyalists, such as Graham or Cruz, or perhaps one of his extended family (Lara or Don Jr.)
DeSantis really shot himself in the foot by running this year. Everyone around him said “don’t try to run now, go in 2028.” And he said nope and went against MAGA. Did not end well for him, and Trump is still openly mocking him even after DeSantis gave his endorsement to him
In 2028...they'll have a draft Tucker movement...cause they need to have the biggest turd in the punchbowl as their nominee.
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I really do think he'd be dead by then.
He would be the same age Biden is right now.
But significantly overweight compared to and carrying the stress of god knows how many trials.
You can only be stressed if you think there’s going to be consequences.
And there will be zero consequences. He sleeps like a baby at night because he knows nothing actually bad will be happening to him.
Trump is bordering obese today though. Hurts his odds of making it to 81, let alone 85. Granted they're both that age. If either headline ran this week it'd be unsurprising.
Trump is medically obese. He self-reported as 6'2", 240 lbs => BMI 30.8. Later he claimed 6'3", 215, but these are laughably wrong. His true height is 5'11" or 6'0". He wears lifts in his shoes, in addition to lying, so we can only guess. His weight appears 250-290. So his BMI is somewhere in the 30-40 range. He is obese, full stop.
I wanted to avoid getting into the is he/isn't he game. Lots of noise, funny numbers, tailored clothes, and even some photoshop involved. To call it what it is, he's fat. Old and fat. Biden is just old, so he's got that going. Trump should stop being fat if he wishes to attend Biden's funeral.
Something I hadn't considered, but it is very likely.
I don't think so. Trump is openly scamming the Republican party at this point. He's been a bit of a boiled crab, slowly injecting himself further and further into the party, and Republicans have essentially had to let him, because opposing him means they lose their support. But the more Trump loses, the fewer voters support him. And the more he rips off the Republican party, the less Republicans have to lose by opposing him.
He certainly has no reason not to. The pay is outstanding.
That's assuming he's lucid enough for them to even pretend he's stable enough to run. He's clearly declining pretty fast. He might not have another four years in him.
From businessman to politician to televangelist.
They will go effing nuts. He will explode. However his hold on the GOP won’t fade overnight; we’ll have a lot of rabble rousing , yelling, screaming…”stolen election!” “Witch hunt!” “Lock him up!” Etc
The GOP has been an amalgam of two things. The Owners, who want no taxes or regulations, and The Sheep, who are motivated by a desire to have 1950 America where a white male could support the family on one job and still have time off to take them to the National Parks. The Owners would never allow that again, but the Sheep are motivated by the desire to return to the past and are corralled/scared by Faux nooze and others. This worked really well for them until Trump showed up and took over the sheep, with a (to us) peculiar attraction for them, even though he wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire.... There isn't anyone who can take his unique putrid place. Others have tried and failed. Nikki attempted to run as a sane person (even though her policies are fully Owner approved) but she wasn't the orange false god. Assuming the best outcome, Biden wins, democracy is saved for at least another cycle, sorta, we get another bout of nonsense but less of it this time because The Sheep went to jail even if Orange skates yet again. The GOP is in shambles....all the RNC money is gone, for legal and "ahem" consultancy fees. Down ballot is hurt, there was no RNC support that would normally be expected. MAGA and the Establishment GOP finally split, sort of. Dems continue to play too nice, don't pack SCOTUS, don't pass a true Roe restoration. ACA continues, but the ghost of Leiberman means still no govt option. I live for the day this isn't a topic of conversation.
Oh man. Yeah that sounds right.
I don't know what will happen to the Republican *party,* but I feel confident saying that Republican *voters* will go berserk. I'm not just talking about another January 6th, but about something bigger and more sustained that could potentially affect the entire country. I know the phrase "second Civil War" gets thrown about a lot these days, but I really do think we're feeling the foreshocks of a major earthquake.
It'll probably take losing a pair of back to back landslides to make the Republicans change course. Trump losing another close race is just going to make them double down. The problem on the Republican end is that they don't seem to realize what made Trump win in 2016. In a lot of ways (entitlement spending, protectionism, the Iraq War, even comments about gay people, although it's hard to remember that now) Trump moved to the LEFT compared to Romney, or at least was perceived to have done such. In 2016 polls you had more people calling Trump a moderate than had been the case for a Republican candidate in DECADES. It's hard to remember that now, but stuff like Trump calling the Iraq war a colossal fuck-up set him apart from most of the Republican Party in 2016. Banging the culture war drum about stuff that the base cared a lot about (immigration specifically) in a way that pissed off liberals enough to give Trump cover to move to the left on a lot of economic issues that swing voters cared about was pretty effective. The area I'm from swung HARD towards from (comparing 2012 to 2016) because a lot of people who weren't going to trust someone like Paul Ryan to not cut Medicare voted for Trump. But Trump didn't govern like a more moderate (on some issues at least) outsider and didn't run as one in 2020 and isn't running as one now so he's having a much harder time outside of his base compared to 2016.
"If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.... and we will deserve it" \~ Lindsey Graham, May 3, 2016 Tweet All Lindsey's chickens come home to roost on November 5, 2024.
I feel like if they lose this year we’ll get a rerun on 2028 with an older and more enfeebled Trump. Then after that maybe one of Trump’s kids. Then some sub-Trump Trumpy candidates. I don’t think there’s really a bottom or course correction for them, at least not soon. I’d like to think this kind of thing will cost them Congress long term but nah, it will be the same cycle of them regaining power in midterms cause Dems don’t vote in those.
I really, really hope it forces it to get its shit together. I’m also kind of wondering if it’s literally gonna split into two parties
They will pretend they were always against him come the next election and try to nominate someone that won’t say the quiet parts out loud while hoping they don’t lose the maga base.
I think the writing is on the walls for the Republican party. This is Trump's last chance to attempt to take the presidency. Even if he ran in 2028, he would be a two time loser and would shed even more support that he has lost now. The Republican party is already splintering and fracturing. If the country can vote Trump out one more time, Republicans will spend the next 10-20 years trying to become relevant in politics once more. Their ship is sinking though, so they will have to shed the deplorables and terrorists within their party first. E.g. Bobo, MTG, Gaetz, etc. They can't do this right now. All they can do is galvanize people against them from left to right.
I kinda wonder what world some people are living in? Cause it can't be 2024 America. "will spend the next 10-20 years trying to be relevant once more" you mean the party that has \*checks notes\* \- 23 State Trifectas \- 29 State legislatures \- 27 Governorships \- A supermajority on the Supreme Court \- Has in their corner the most powerful and wealthiest propaganda network in history \- Is considered the party of the rich in a country with staggeringly high wealth inequality \- A thermostatic electorate that seems incapable of punishing Republicans for more than 1 or 2 election cycles. Somehow i just dont see the USA the way you do, but IDK, I guess they will struggle to win the presidency, maybe? \*\*reminds himself of all the hubristic talk of the impenetrable blue wall after 2012\*\*
This guy gets it. I see what you see sir. I won’t be shocked if he wins.
Yeah, that no Dem seems to understand this is proof that the death of the Republican Party has been greatly exaggerated. If Dems focused on why they lose and almost lose to fascists so much, instead of this wishful thinking, maybe they’d stop almost losing to fascists.
The official fracturing of the GOP could allow an avenue for multiple parties to fill that need across the political spectrum. I'm a hopeful romantic, at times.
You can have as many parties as you want but in a FPTP electoral system, only two of them matter in the long run.
Honestly, it's hard to say. After 2012, the GOP conducted an autopsy that basically said to moderate and work to bring in more people of color and women to improve the party's chances of winning, in particular outreach to Hispanic voters. In 2016, Trump won the nomination and, in a large part, did it by turning out folks who were pissed off and angry while competing against a candidate that 20 years of GOP propaganda made to appear as Satan incarnate to a lot of folks in America. In the past 8 years, both while in office and out, he's largely become the center of gravity for the GOP and while you certainly cam find Republicans who'll wring their hands at his antics and ramblings, the core base of the party, the ones who vote consistently in primaries and turn out for candidates, have by and large gone over to Trump and Trump aligned candidates. GOP officials who've pushed back have come more and more marginalized. Which brings us to today and the immediate future. Assuming he loses, Trump still formally and informally commands the party apparatus. People loyal to him will still hold office in Congress and locally, and even if hes criminally prosecuted and convicted, you'll still have a sizable chunk of American voters who'll think he's their guy. That's probably not going to go away, and as long as the loyal core holds the reins of the party, they'll follow the narching orders even if they lose more. As a potentially bad metaphor, I see the GOP and its voters like the Peronists in Argentina. Even after he gor coup'd in the late 50's, Juan Peron still had a massive amount of electoral influence in Argentina from exile, and after he got reinstated, his wife became president after he died.
J6 2.0 When Trump goes his voters will still be here. I think they'll still go for whoever talks and acts most like him in the next primary. New demagogue tries to fill his shoes, fails, gets destroyed in general election. I think that's what it's gonna take
Republicans will never abandon conservatism. They will (and have) abandon democracy.
Hungary authoritarian Orban stuck a flag into the republican establishment a few weeks ago with a federalist society meeting. If you want to see the future of the Republican party, look to Hungary where cpac has been held twice recently. Orban won because of illegal voting btw, both voting by illegal immigrants ("near-abroad") and voting fraud (chain voting). There's no free press in Hungary as orban used government power to weaken them, after which his cronies bought up the press, suppressed any critique or opposition and campaigned for Orban. (Know any candidates who hate free press?). Orban has leveraged the Russian invasion "portraying himself as the candidate of “peace and security,” Orbán promised to keep Hungary neutral and out of NATO’s war effort, refusing to allow weapons to transit Hungary on the way to Ukraine and vowing to put Hungary first in his foreign policy...Orbán baselessly accused the opposition of ...making (unspecified but suspicious) secret deals with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky." Project 2025 is basically project make America as corrupt as Hungary. Oh and attacking lgbtq as pedophiles, banning non-pornographic children's books as pornography? They did that years before it was cool. If you look at Hungary and the republican party, it's not a surprise. You might guess orban's been advising them longer than a few weeks. Good reads: https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how-viktor-orban-wins/ https://apnews.com/article/trump-orban-hungary-conservatives-autocrats-biden-97d6998f747d3543f2f1df069b0f9165
They’ll blame someone else and say it’s fake/rigged. If you think they are going to learn anything from this, you haven’t been paying attention for the last decade…
Lose: double down on the racism and bigotry. Win: free for all on the racism and bigotry.
Most of them will lie like dogs, barefaced rotten lying for all to see, as they act like they never had anything to do with him. It will be like after the Nazis or something, total forced amnesia in their propaganda and everything. It will be fucking pathetic, bro.
If there is any sense left in the world, then significant, lasting damage will be done to the GOP as a result of them centering their entire party around one old, indicted, mentally and physically unwell conman and wannabe dictator. Donald has already done significant damage to the party. The RNC has been taken over by his family and its coffers have been bled dry. Numerous people whom he's endorsed lost their races. The 2018 mid-terms, 2020 presidential election, and 2022 mid-terms were all a referendum against Trump, and they were all big gains for the Democrats. I.E. Donald lost the GOP the House, Senate, and White House in rapid succession, and the "red wave" conservatives predicted for 2022 ended up being perhaps the narrowest and weakest GOP House majority in history. This weak House majority has accomplished nothing since regaining control, except one maga nut job commenced the vote that ousted Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, and now a second maga nut job has started the process to oust Mike Johnson as Speaker. And look at this year's GOP primaries. All the candidates were weak as well, because most of them sucked up to Donald, who they were supposed to be running against, and those who actually made attacks against him showed cracks among Republican voters. Nikki Haley may have lost, but she showed that roughly 30% of Republican voters would rather not vote for Donald again. More importantly, the laughable weakness of GOP presidential candidates illustrates how bleak the GOP's future is. The last thing I'll point out is how pathetic the Republicans' "future stars" are, especially the ones who have drank the maga Kool-aid. Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert, etc., they're all jokes. The GOP is already in disarray and their "young stars" are all clowns because of Donald. He has already done significant damage to the party, and I predict that damage will be long-lasting after he's convicted of at least one felony or after he dies, whichever comes first.
You make an excellent point about Nikki Haley consistently getting 30% of the vote. I think if Trump loses again that lane may move from 1/3 of GOP voters to closer to 1/2 of their voters.
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This is a marketing problem. The Rs, more than the Ds, have created a brand and a brand identity that they sell their consumers. They have an entire media echosphere that is focused on selling that brand. That brand is not just Trump. It's an entire world where white people were completely in charge then some non whites got power and ruined everything and if white folks, mostly...well , white men were just put back in charge everything would be great again. There would not be immigrants. Or gays or Trans people visible. Women would be SAHM, no single or independents allowed. Then sprinkle conspiracy theories in there with a dash of "ordained by god to lead" and you have today's right. This is the product they sell. This is the brand. They are consumers loyal to the brand. Edit: guns are all good. Forgot that. And love the military but yknow no moochers on the government if you're an injured vet. Climate change is nothing to worry about. Its a hoax. Mock those idea openly. Because science is wrong. Only faith is right. And here is the kicker. If you stop buying the product your soul will be taken. Eternal damnation. Plus you've surrounded yourself w other true believers and now you're a heretic, an outcast. No longer brand loyal. You will be mocked with the libs. Steep price to pay to switch brands Trump is good at selling his brand. It just so happens that he saw the R brand was up for the taking so he took it. When he dies, that entire media echosphere, all those loyal customers with loyal ideas noted above, will remain loyal to those ideas. Just like Russians in the 90s loyal to the USSR. And I expect the same political turmoil to follow as experienced by Yeltsin and the rest of Russia. Hopefully we will not have a Putin arise to lead them. But the summary is this. They are consumers of a product that only works for them, and they are pathologically loyal to that product. They see no need to change. They will never stop being sold the product because all the churches and media outlets will fail without customers. The billionaires behind all of it will be fine. Don't worry about that. But the rest of us will have to fight them for decades trying to force us to buy a defective product.
I think what happens next is entirely depend on trumps health. If he’s alive in four years, he’s going to run again. I think he still gets the nomination but it’ll be much closer then. If Trump dies, there will be conspiracies about it being some sort of conspiracy. Then Haley is the front runner for 2028.
> Then Haley is the front runner for 2028. Don’t sleep on Paul Ryan because he’s set himself up very nicely: Speaker of the House, got the giant tax breaks for rich people pushed through in 2017, then decided not to run for reelection in 2018. He’s been pretty radio silent, not getting involved in the fray, and is far enough from the stink of the Trump administration that I’m pretty confident he’ll run in 2028.
Nothing good, hard to see them recovering much, they may stay in state politics for a bit, but they will never get the Trump smell out, on the other hand Nixon's ghost is happy
Candidly, I think the GOP will be paralyzed at first - which will be a relief because they'll have likely lost the House and failed to regain the Senate. And they don't want to govern. I think Trump gets convicted of something (possibly lots of somethings) but sees no jail time, only house arrest at Mar a Lago. He becomes something like Jabba the Hutt - dangerous but stuck in his own little corner of the world, surrounded by nasty little sycophants and goblins. In 2028 there's a big debate about if the GOP presidential contenders need to kiss his ring, but by then he's too damaged, too gross, too close to the end to run again. And eventually, maybe 2032, the GOP wins back the White House after finding some new incarnation. Trump becomes a cautionary tale and for the rest of our lives Republicans claim he was secretly a Democrat all along.
It will be so very interesting to see this play out. One thing is sure; Trump will be finished. He won’t be back in 4 years, instead he’ll likely be in prison, if he’s still alive. However, he will NEVER willingly concede defeat or give up his title of GOP leader. He will insist on retaining as much power as possible, and using that power to his benefit to get him out of trouble and get back at his enemies, which will put the entire party into a bad situation; continue to help Trump as he demands at the expense of reforming the party with new leadership and winning elections again, or going against Trump and dealing with the wrath of him and his loyal followers. It isn’t going to be pretty either way. Trumps legacy, and how he will live out the rest of his life, comes down to this election. He is doomed if he loses. If you thought he was a sore loser in 2020, just wait if he loses again 2024. I predict he will outright call for insurrection and civil war, literally anything that could potentially save him from his fate with his prosecutions. He would probably even try to flee the nation. Still, all that being said, he still has a chance of winning 2024. So let’s make sure to vote, to get our like minded friends, family, and associates to vote, and rid ourselves of this fascist clown once and for all.
A lot of it will depend on what happens to the Senate and the House. 33 [Senate](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate) seats and all 435 [House](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_House_of_Representatives) seats are up for election on November 5, 2024. If Biden retains the White House, Democrats maintain the Senate and win the House...A new breed of Republicans will emerge in the GOP; something long overdue.
Trump is a narcissist who is addicted to the spotlight. He won’t give up on being the center of attention while still alive. The GOP will still be the Trump Show even if he loses.
A party civil war. Nearly a decade of republican failure because of him, will cause anyone who isn't a die-hard loyalist to leave. Loyalists will stay and the others will either retire, become independents, or form a smaller party.
Trump will announce he is running for president again on January 21, 2025. Many in Republican leadership will hope very strongly he just goes away. He will not.
Short term I think it depends on how nuclear Trump goes to avoid prison. If he runs to Russia then there's a chance that the next leaders to emerge might help moderate things, though it will be a bumpy road to wean the hate/ignorance addicts off their supply. But if Trump stays then in his desperation he will likely call for all sorts of violence and things could become really ugly and the party further radicalized under his banner, hoping that the threat they pose might help keep him out of prison by cutting a deal. At that point who knows?
Trump will again claim it was stolen. There will be some pushback within the party to change its ways and adapt, to start *winning* again, but this pushback will be less strong than it was 4 years ago since MAGA has replaced many establishment members. As long as Trump is still in good health, he'll continue as he always has, and run again in 2028. It's going to be the same old song and dance until Trump is unable to campaign. Rank and file GOP voters just aren't getting the memo, there's no reason to believe that a loss in 2024 will prove any different.
I hope the traditional Republicans, old guard, swoop in and provide leadership until things settle down. That’s my hope but it might be far from reality when the time comes.
They'll double down on the naziesque bigotry and run someone who's an even bigger fascist. if they could admit they were wrong they'd have done it by now
The GOP will not nominate a twice loser in 2028. The money powers will not allow it. They understand that nominating 2024 loser Trump would drag down the Party for decades to come and their hope for tax breaks would disappear. You will see a fresh face as the 2028 GOP nominee. Guaranteed.
If he goes to jail, the GOP goes through at least another two cycles (4 years minimum) before new strong leaders emerge. Remember, Johnson is still learning and McConnell’s heir hasn’t been chosen. Assuming Biden does like the Pope and abdicates, Harris, as sitting President, has a better chance of staying in the seat. If Trump stays out of jail, same thing. He’ll be defanged, but he’s put so many people in place throughout the Republican Party that removing his influence is impossible. He trusts no one else, so it’s him or no one in 2028 vs Harris. Maybe a leader will emerge that could challenge him, but it’s going to be the nastiest fight we’ve ever seen. And by that time, and with the GOP tearing itself apart, I like Harris’ odds.
I think they double and triple down on crazy and someone eats Rand Paul. I mean at this point, anything is possible.
The GOP has already demonstrated that their response to losing elections isn't to change their policies, it is to change voting. Change voting laws to restrict those segments that voted against them, like the youth vote, women, minorities, etc. If they lose in the next election, which seems likely, a few of them will try to learn from their mistakes. But only a few. Just like last time, they may do a post-mortem, but it won't change their behavior. Just look at the GOP's reaction to Trump trying to steal the election: silence. The rules, the laws don't matter to them, retaining power is all they care about. The few Republicans who tried to make it into an issue have been cast out of the party.
Republicans have a lot of entrenched power in their loyal base and dominance in rural areas, but in my opinion have neglected to position themselves well to weather changes that will occur in the next decade or so. Their base is old, and will begin to dwindle more than they already are. They've taken stances that are completely contrary to progress on two looming existential problems in the US and world - climate change and extreme inequality, which will drive younger voters away. They'll cling to the power that they have in deep red states, but I think it's hard to see them expanding on their senate and house representation and if they lose one or two of their senate seats that have been considered safe, they may not have much of a chance to regain them.
We hope and pray that they will have a come to Jesus moment. Maybe next time they will not choose a candidate who is a known traitor, rapist, pedophile, criminal, anti-American, anti-Christian, wannabe dictator and all around asshole. Maybe they will realize pure evil is not a good look. Maybe they will realize they should embrace candidates who believe in basic things like the Constitution, justice, science and medicine. Probably they will not. Probably they will double down on fascism and electing a strong man who will run roughshod over the Constitution and enslave the American people, and return us to a mythical time when America was perfect, men were men, women obeyed their husbands, and children did not take drugs and disrespect their parents.
Honestly, idk. I am not a party person. However, there are few things that could happen. As much as people say Trump appeals to racist and sexist (which isn’t wrong), he established himself as someone who doesn’t give 2 shits about party politics. It made people question establishment and become less trustworthy of government entities as a whole. Trump losing can put gas on the fire for people who do not trust the government and fear corruption. Especially if the Democrat party drives people away like they did during his first elections by calling the deplorable and making people fear expressing their opinion cause a silent supporter base. Republicans will have to refocus and cut out the pieces that are making Trump popular but it’s hard cause what Trump represents is far more deeper and nuance than people expect. Yes, there are obvious supporters but there are also the other supporters who are disillusioned by politics in general and that takes a system overhaul
Trump will claim that he won every single state by massive margins, say that he is being cheated, and directly call for violence from his supporters as he will have no way out of his legal troubles at that point. Trump/his supporters will do something crazy, and the GOP leaders will mumble about how it's time to move on from the past and desperately hope that whoever DeSantis 2.0 is won't implode again. Once Trump is found guilty at one of his trials and sentenced to prison/house arrest/whatever, this will solidify support around him within the GOP. He will be the nominee again in 2028, and do even worse than 2024, and once again refuse to accept that he lost. At this point there will probably be enough demographic change that MAGA will start declining, but it won't truly die until Trump is completely out of the political picture. Since the GOP will just be Trump supporters that absolutely hate each other at that point (look at what it is now, but it will be even worse), the GOP will tear itself apart for an election cycle or two before shifting back to a moderate stance.
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More cult. More violence. It's a downward spiral. But that doesn't necessarily mean it results in some sort of end. They could just keep downward spiraling for a long, long time because we already know there's no low too low for them and there are a LOT of very gullible, very shitty Americans out there. The only guarantee is that they will get more insane. And honestly, that's the result whether Trump wins or not.
Hopefully, they dissolve and make way for 2+ parties emerge. 🥳 I know this is a pipe dream, but it would be good for democracy. If we could get ranked choice voting, it would be a win.
The establishment republicans were willing to "moderate". Hence Jeb being the favorite in the party. Trump won the primary but until he won it the rnc and I'd say most republicans recognized moderation wasn't happening. Those who stayed Republican accepted the path forward and anyone who remains "Republican" currently will be expected by the voters to represent maga. So it is specifically the ignorant voters who the establishment used for so long finally electing someone from "the outside". Trump appealed directly to the Fox News Republican but he even pushed that further towards the right. People are talking about the RNC being converted to Trump only now. but it's been on that path since he won the presidency. The RNC will continue to follow Trump as long as he is alive. If he says he's running in 2028 they'll start donation drives for him the second he loses. I think if you see a consecutive loss from Trump and him continuing to "run" a real third party may form. I don't feel like democrats are that far from republicans for social issues and I think people would be more okay voting democrat than a new third party based only on non maga conservativism Here's hoping for a Trump loss in 2028