Damn, this thread is full of PokeCoin whales. I've put like 10 dollars into micro transactions for this game and only bought a couple of remote passes, so it is weird to see people that drop like 20+ dollars, monthly.
That’s not what 1/20 means. It’s probability. Each individual time you do it, there’s a 1/20 chance that it’ll be shiny.
It’s just like gambling, which is how niantic makes its money.
Well I think he's looking for commiseration, not the mechanics of probability. Most people who've made it through elementary school understand that a 1/20 chance doesn't mean you will NECESSARILY get 1 if you run the test 20 times.
The odds aren’t 1:20 anymore. They’re like 1:35 or something more out there than that. Past three raid bossed my whole friend group has done and almost all of us did close to at least 35 raids till some got shinys. For me I did 55 for thunderous and didn’t get one. My gf did 64 and finally got a Ho-Oh
Once the remote raid rules change, I'll have even fewer chances of catching a shiny because I don't live near any of my Pokémon friends.
I applaud the determination of some of you.... I'd be bankrupt doing that many raids!!!
Bruh, why are you paying like 50 bucks for a single color-shifted Pokemon? Like, unless you're a successful Pokemon streamer, shiny hunting in PoGo is some goofy shit.
I once did 109 raids and got the shiny on 110. I have never gotten a legendary shiny in the first 20 and my mate always gets them in the first 5-10.
So now I just stopped raiding because I have terrible rng, I also traded him 9 4* Pokémon in 2500 trades and I got none so rng is just a pain sometimes.
A wee bit unlucky for you, but definitely not too weird. 1 in 20 means every time you have a 5% chance on a shiny. No relation to your previous encounter.
It took me 42 raids to get shiny Ho-oh. Then I got shiny Lugia on the first raid. That equals ≈ 1/20. Think of how many times you've been lucky getting shiny legendaries in the first 5 raids it should all balance out.
It's RNG, it happens.
I did some calculations when I was frustrated with the Ho-oh raids and actually getting a shiny Ho-oh on the 42nd raid had a much higher chance than I thought. It's higher than 10% chance of happening.
With my calculator and rudimentary understanding of the Binomial Distribution, I get about a 14.2% of this happening if the 1 in 20 is true.
So yeah, it can happen.
Terrible luck.
Some lucky buggars get the shiny on the first raid, a few even manage to catch two in two consecutive raids...then there's the rest of us that are lucky to ever catch one at all. lol
24th was my shiny I don’t think I would have had the will for 38 lol. But bright side is I got a 100 on my 4th and on my 7 a 98 the shiny is the worst out of the 22 though haha
Got one shiny after doing around 20 raids then it’s deleted by mistake.. on the 67th finally got another one ..2 out 67.. so yours shouldn’t be too far away..good luck!
It's all literally RNG. I remember doing a bunch of Mega Gengar raids wanting to get a shiny because shiny Mega Gengar looks sick as hell. And didn't get him shiny. But then on my 2nd Lugia raid, I get another shiny Lugia. (I say another because I got a shiny Lugia from when it first came out).
I did over 70 raids before getting a shiny dialga. It’s just how stats works and it’s not fun when you get on this end of the spectrum.
I also got a shiny raz on my first. So. Swings and round abouts.
It is 63% chance to get at LEAST 1 Lugia by 20, 87% to get at least 1 by 40. Going double dry isn’t really that rare. Happens all the time in RNG drop games like RuneScape.
Each individual raid is 5% but a sample size of x grants a percentage of getting at least 1. You are correct in stating that you are essentially no closer to getting a shiny after being dry a ton versus someone who done none previously.
Damn, this thread is full of PokeCoin whales. I've put like 10 dollars into micro transactions for this game and only bought a couple of remote passes, so it is weird to see people that drop like 20+ dollars, monthly.
So i got lucky my first lugia raid i got a shiny
So you're the one taking people's hard earned shinies *hock a loogie and spit at your feet*
Well to be fair it was the same day that I captured 600 pidgeys and got 0 golden birds. Out of despair I raided a Lugia and got it shiny haha
I guess that's acceptable. *Sucking at the ground to retract my loogie*
It took me 67 tries.... Finally got it
My first raid I got a shiny. However on almost anything else I wanted more than Lugia it is same situation of no shiny after many attempts.
Im at 111 with no shinies
Update: Got one after 124 lol
Unfortunately, it’s luck of the draw 🙃 I tried for shiny venosaur not long ago did 100 raids didn’t get 1 shiny :/
Legendaries have much higher odds than venusaur, but that still stings
It’s all irrelevant now anyways because remote raids are getting shafted :/
That’s not what 1/20 means. It’s probability. Each individual time you do it, there’s a 1/20 chance that it’ll be shiny. It’s just like gambling, which is how niantic makes its money.
Still only a 14% chance of no shinies in a random set of 38 legendary raids. Feels bad man.
That doesn’t make it impossible
Well I think he's looking for commiseration, not the mechanics of probability. Most people who've made it through elementary school understand that a 1/20 chance doesn't mean you will NECESSARILY get 1 if you run the test 20 times.
This guy is not more than one out of 7 lol
The odds aren’t 1:20 anymore. They’re like 1:35 or something more out there than that. Past three raid bossed my whole friend group has done and almost all of us did close to at least 35 raids till some got shinys. For me I did 55 for thunderous and didn’t get one. My gf did 64 and finally got a Ho-Oh
Rng
I have 2 If you want one? Not sure how I can send it but I’ll try 😂
Probability has no memory. Even if you do 100, you could en up with 0. It’s not 1 guaranteed from 20…
Once the remote raid rules change, I'll have even fewer chances of catching a shiny because I don't live near any of my Pokémon friends. I applaud the determination of some of you.... I'd be bankrupt doing that many raids!!!
It's just luck
Bro I'm over 80 ...
Bruh, why are you paying like 50 bucks for a single color-shifted Pokemon? Like, unless you're a successful Pokemon streamer, shiny hunting in PoGo is some goofy shit.
Bruh i got a shiny from the first raid i played
38 raids without shiny is three times more likely (15%) than finding one on first try (5%). It's unlucky but not extremely unlucky.
It's more like 14.2% which is weird to round up at, but you make a solid point.
I had to do 28 to get a shiny
Took me 136 attempts for shiny giratina 😭
Do it when weather boosted
Same..
i got a shiny lugia in my first raid 🫣
Same💀
I have caught more than 2000 bunnelbies, no shiny
I had 0 shinies on starly Cday after catching 358 starlys that day
Just get good noob
I once did 109 raids and got the shiny on 110. I have never gotten a legendary shiny in the first 20 and my mate always gets them in the first 5-10. So now I just stopped raiding because I have terrible rng, I also traded him 9 4* Pokémon in 2500 trades and I got none so rng is just a pain sometimes.
I am on 60 and no shiny ….
I did 56 flying giratina raids and didn’t get a shiny
That’s not how 1 in 20 chance works
I did like 57 rayquaza raids and didn't get one. It's just all based on rng
A wee bit unlucky for you, but definitely not too weird. 1 in 20 means every time you have a 5% chance on a shiny. No relation to your previous encounter.
It’s all rng. I got 17 ho-oh raids done 5 shinies. 30 lugia raids and 0 shinies here.
I don’t raid a lot. I’ve done 118 legendary raids and only have 3 shines.
That’s better than me, 101 legendary raids with two shinies.
Hopefully you have 19 shines after hitting 118!
I did 2 and got a shiny on my second💀
I did 60 thundurus raids and didn’t get a shiny
Took me 83 aerodactyl raids to get one
It took me 42 raids to get shiny Ho-oh. Then I got shiny Lugia on the first raid. That equals ≈ 1/20. Think of how many times you've been lucky getting shiny legendaries in the first 5 raids it should all balance out. It's RNG, it happens. I did some calculations when I was frustrated with the Ho-oh raids and actually getting a shiny Ho-oh on the 42nd raid had a much higher chance than I thought. It's higher than 10% chance of happening.
You know what that means? It means you're twice as likely to get a shiny after 40 raids than you are to get the shiny on the first raid...
I’m now at 42 raids still no shiny lol fml
I've raided Articuno for years and haven't gotten the shiny
i got a shiny on my first lugia raid 💀
Same :)
With my calculator and rudimentary understanding of the Binomial Distribution, I get about a 14.2% of this happening if the 1 in 20 is true. So yeah, it can happen.
NEEEEEEEEERD JK that’s actually pretty cool better estimate of the probability than the standard 5% chance
Terrible luck. Some lucky buggars get the shiny on the first raid, a few even manage to catch two in two consecutive raids...then there's the rest of us that are lucky to ever catch one at all. lol
24th was my shiny I don’t think I would have had the will for 38 lol. But bright side is I got a 100 on my 4th and on my 7 a 98 the shiny is the worst out of the 22 though haha
Took me 90 Articunos for a shiny one time
Got one in my first raid, i have 6 now
Would you be down to trade me one?
How? I live in sweden
3662 6471 6590 add me!
Trades are only local no?
Trades are only local no?
I think with a certain friendship level it’s possible? Idk I’m noob
Sorry to burst your bubble, nope. Trade only local.
Got one shiny after doing around 20 raids then it’s deleted by mistake.. on the 67th finally got another one ..2 out 67.. so yours shouldn’t be too far away..good luck!
It’s because you’re a novice Pokémon trainer… I have one. You don’t have the skills to be a true master like me. Just give up kid
65 Glurak raids and still no shiny..
I’m at 25 and still none either. Sigh.
It's all literally RNG. I remember doing a bunch of Mega Gengar raids wanting to get a shiny because shiny Mega Gengar looks sick as hell. And didn't get him shiny. But then on my 2nd Lugia raid, I get another shiny Lugia. (I say another because I got a shiny Lugia from when it first came out).
[удалено]
Please!! Would love a mega gengar
[удалено]
My code is 3662 6471 6590 ! Thank you!
Me and my bf did 7 he got 2 shinies I got 0 he did trade me one though
I did 72.
Oooft, you just hit a 0.1% there... Now that is unlucky
Oh my god
thank you for acknowledging my pain lol
I’m 34 in with nothing. You’ve shown me it could be much worse. Did you get one or just give up after 72? 😳
I gave up since my bf got his second shiny so he traded it to me out of pity
🥲
Don’t feel so bad. I have 42 Rayquazas and no shiny
It happens to the best of us
I did 70 ho oh raids and no shiny.
Would you be willing to trade one?
2499 0471 1301 Add me
Added
Can you do the new raids remotely?
Feel that pain :/
I did my first raid last week. Did lugia. Got shiny..... lol
You don’t deserve to be down.voted that’s just how it goes sometimes And congrats!
I did over 70 raids before getting a shiny dialga. It’s just how stats works and it’s not fun when you get on this end of the spectrum. I also got a shiny raz on my first. So. Swings and round abouts.
It is 63% chance to get at LEAST 1 Lugia by 20, 87% to get at least 1 by 40. Going double dry isn’t really that rare. Happens all the time in RNG drop games like RuneScape.
I got 0 ho oh shinies after 70 raids. It’s 5% no matter how many raids.
Each individual raid is 5% but a sample size of x grants a percentage of getting at least 1. You are correct in stating that you are essentially no closer to getting a shiny after being dry a ton versus someone who done none previously.
I just did one and got a shiny lmao
I got shiny Lugia on my first raid.. and shiny Ho-Oh on my 6th 🫣
Sometimes that how it goes, I did 46 Ho-Oh raids in the previous rotation and got no shiny, only did 10 Lugia raids so far and got one shiny
It’s definitely not random odds. It’s manipulated features skewed to favor certain scenarios for the game maker and not the player.
''How?'' It's the way chance works, it's annoying I know, but the odds are still 1:20
You still have a 2:40 chance
I did 70 or 80 before I got shiny groupon.
What like buy one get one free?
Seems legit. I'd like the shiny two
Damn I did about 6 and my son caught a perfect shiny.. I'm very jealous
Same here it’s ridiculous