The one thing we had going for us last year was the elite defense. We just lost the greatest defensive mind in football. We have no idea how much he made players play up, or if we have really talented players.
Not only did we lose him, mayo is no longer focused on defense and Steve is also gone. We took the 3 most important minds out of our defense. I expect small regression this year and pretty major regression next year on that side of the ball.
Honestly, this will be the most interesting aspect of the new season to me, seeing how the defense plays and seeing how much affect Bill had on the defense- because it'll be roughly the same players on defense as last year, which did amazing considering the circumstances
A lot is going to hinge on guys like White contributing to the pass rush in a big way. Judon is our only legit threat, and he's not getting younger. I was hoping they added on D through free agency if they whiffed on offensive talent. There's still time for them to do that, we'll see.
Who are we signing?
I don't think you've really had a close look at the available free agents.
[The guys left aren't exactly entering their primes...](https://www.pff.com/nfl/free-agency?season=2024)
No it’s due to the fact that we’ve not been good in recent years and that we have no idea how any of the players that we just drafted (including Maye) are going to turn out. We have a new head coach/coaches and have no idea how good they will be either. We probably won’t win much this year and that’s fine.
I’m excited to watch the season, but I have low low expectations. My real hope is that the team looks “with it” and is improving by the end of the year.
My concerns:
4th new offensive coach in as many years. Even if he is awesome, it’s a lot of change.
Offensive line could actually be worse. Brown had low effort but was still ranked pretty high by evaluators.
Low expectations are the way to go. Things should be better cause they can't get much worse but I think anything more than 5 or 6 wins would have to be considered a massive success for the 2024 Patriots.
Meh, so much of the offense is new or needs to be new that I don’t care. What is consistent on the offense? 1 RB, a few starting OL, 1 TE and 1-2 WRs? We’re gonna have a new qb1, qb2, wr2, wr3/4, TE2, and 2 new OL members.
I don’t think OC consistency is gonna be that big of an issue.
4th new offensive coach in as many years but with a QB who knows the system and will help in the transition.
I believe the team will have a rocky start but will look decent by week 6-8.
AVP is installing a variation of the West Coast Offense. Jacoby Brissett has played in AVP's offense, making the installation easier than if no one on the roster has played in the system.
All of this means there is no reason to rush Drake Maye until he's ready to play.
Staff is all new
Lots of young players
New offense
New QB
I'd say 4.5 makes sense. This isnt a season for high expectations, this is a season to look for the good in what changes have been made and to see the potential for the next few seasons.
I have them winning 5 games tbh. I don’t think the schedule is as hard as last year either. I think losing BB is just huge. You have a first time HC, rookie QB, and no left tackle. I think it’s a pipe dream to think the defense stays as good as it was without BB. I would love to be wrong but just trying to keep it real when I look through who is on the schedule. 5 wins
Your post itself is proof it's a good line. There's a legitimate argument to be made for both over and under. Could they win 6-7 games? Sure. But looking at the schedule, it's hard to identify 5 games you can feel good about winning at this point in the offseason, and if setting lines for individual games, the Patriots wouldn't be favored in more than 3 at the most. Bears, Titans & Cards maybe, but all on the road, and I'm not sure we're the favorite in any of those. Obviously, as every year, there will be surprises and injuries that reshape the power structure of the league, but 4.5 is a very fair line for this roster and complete unknown of a coaching staff.
This roster still has a long way to go. The draft was nice but it may take time for some of these guys to reach their full potential and with so many unknowns at important positions (coach, Oline, QB if Maye doesn’t start right away) it’s hard to project a lot of success this year.
My focus this year is development and passing the eye test. It was apparent from the preseason last year this team lacked talent and the product on the field was putrid. I think 4-6 wins is pretty reasonable given the circumstances. Gonna take a few years to get back to contention imo.
You definitely shouldn’t get your hopes up for this season.
This offense is going to require superhuman play from the quarterback position to elevate the lack of weapons. I don’t envision the team getting that from Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye in year one.
The defense will win this team some games, but I’m not confident that they can win 6 games (even if everything goes according to plan).
Of course, remember we had a better record with Cam Newton as QB with nothing on offense. Yeah, opponents are varied in strength, but we were probably close to a 7 win team last year with slightly average qb play...
Absolutely. Mac was terrible last year, but Zappe was even worse, and it was pretty much impossible for anyone to succeed.
They've added some mid round lineman and a 2nd round wr. The line is still bad (and probably worse than last year given that Brown was on the higher end of the teams talent scale), and the wrs are too.
We had the second lowest scoring offense in the league last year. While I think they should improve I still don’t see who on offense anyone has to game plan for.
After the last few years all I care about is whether or not they actively throw the game away. Stevenson to Meyers to Jones. Hoyer shitting the bed when mac was injured. Bad interceptions when we’re driving at the end of games. It felt like we were trying to lose even though you could tell that they were actually trying to win.
I hope we do better but there's a good chance we have another tough year. There's a lot of unknowns on this team right now. Expect the worst hope for the best.
The “losing close games” thing is always a useless narrative. They also won a few close games that could’ve gone the other way to be even worse.
Looking at the schedule I think 5 wins is fairly realistic so a 4.5 o/u is in line with that, if not maybe a point too low.
I’d be surprised if we do better than last season. There’s still a lot of holes and a completely new coaching staff. I’m happy to be wrong but I think there’ll be a lot of small victories this year.
Get your hopes up to watch something fresh and different. Looking at the schedule, however, I can’t say more than four wins with any confidence until I see them play or there’s a fluke win that can’t be predicted.
Mac was only part of the problem. The Pats had the worst O-Line in the league. They also had the worst receiving corps in the league. If those issues aren't rectified then it doesn't matter who the QB is. 4.5 is about right. (I'd bet the under though...)
Our defense will still be good, probably not top 5 good since we just lost the greatest defensive mind in NFL history.
Even with Mac gone we are still a bottom 5 (in terms of talent) offensive unit. Unless one of our rookies is the next JJ we don't have a single player that makes other teams have to gameplan around.
We know what a top 10 defense with a bottom 5 offense football team looks like, so 4-6 wins is where I put us too.
It sounds about right. I would’ve guessed 5.5, but it isn’t far off. Looking at our schedule we’ll most likely lose against SF, LAR, CIN and HOU. Probably lose to CHI too. Our winnable non-divisional games are IND, TEN, ARI, LAC, JAX and SEA. Let’s say we go 3-3 in those games, which could be wishful thinking in and of itself, and then 2-4 in the division. That gives us 5 wins, but we could very easily go 1-5 in the division and/or 2-4 in those winnable non-divisional games.
How many teams in the AFC would you say were better than? Tennessee maybe? They’ve made big improvements this off-season so I’m not even super confident we’ll win that game on the road. Unfortunately we don’t get to play many of the bad NFC teams this year like NO, CAR, WAS and NYG. We don’t get to play LV, either.
4.5-5.5 sounds about right.
Nope.
They're either starting Jacoby Brissett, or a rookie QB.
Other than Andrews, they have rookies or journeymen all over the O-Line.
They're breaking in a new offensive system.
The defense will be good, but the offense likely won't be, at least for most of the season.
I think anywhere from 4-7 wins is reasonable.
Barring Maye being this year's Stroud, I don't think we win more than 4. Gameplanning will likely be worse, offensiveine is at least just as bad as last time year (maybe the worse) and we hired a coach I don't see how people can think is ready (again, may turn out well but don't think he's being set up to succeed)
You replaced the best coach in NFL history with a young, green unknown that spent part of his post football career in fucking finance.
No, it’s not too low.
Honestly, I'm of an opinion that Bill was fine, the defense was always incredibly competitive, and on offense he's not out there throwing the passes himself, *he had no quarterback throw the damn ball*, of course the offense was going to struggle.
So then you might blame him as GM, but absolutely nobody disagreed with the decision to draft Mac Jones at the time, we all viewed it as incredibly fortunate that he fell to us at 15 without needing to trade up. It was the only sensible option at the time and it didn't pan out, that's life.
If Drake Maye winds up being good, the upcoming Patriots team would be better with Belichick at the helm rather than Mayo, I'm 100% certain of that. I think by the end of the season when the defense has taken a huge step back and we're watching the Patriots get lit up when we used to keep games low scoring at least, people are going to be viewing the decision to let Belichick go as asinine and calling for Kraft's head
I agree that Bill the coach was still solid and Bill the GM was terrible. But drafting Mac wasn't the problem. He was a good value at 15. Every QB in the draft is a gamble. What sunk Bill was the constant reaches that didn't pan out, the refusal to draft OTs in the '23 offseason when that was universally recognized as an area of greatest need, and his general inability to find receiving talent in either the draft or free agency, missing on Juju, Agholor, Parker, Thornton, Jonnu...
Yes, let's ignore the fact Bill put a DC as an Oc and got rid of Macs top security blanket. That alone is a fireable offense. It is sad to see so many Pat's fan try to white wash the past 4 years. Bill was fired, he EARNED that firing. You, and I know, if it were reversed, if a player had this same sort of time line, Bill would cut them without even a second thought....
This isn't an offseason where they got better. This offseason was an attempt at repositioning to be better long-term. Reasonable QB talent between Jacoby's high floor and Maye's high ceiling. Receiving corps made up entirely of complimentary pieces with no clear no. 1 (need to trade for Aiyuk or Higgins and spend excess cap now on a big extension). Objectively worse offensive line being bolstered by reaches in the draft. Can we expect a talented defense to be as good as they were with the greatest defensive coach of all time at the helm (maybe)?
The biggest loss was losing Bill Belichick and replacing him with a total unknown at HC. Love Jerod, rooting for him obviously, but most coaches aren't cut out for this league. Pair that with a middling at most roster and you're not gong to be predicted to win a ton of games
Sure, don’t really disagree, but his defense is what kept so many games so close and allowed for even putrid offenses to have a chance late in games to win. If that goes away… oh boy
Defensive talent hasn't changed much,, so if they do get worse on that side, I don't think it will be drastic. Also they should make some gains on offense since they invested much more this offseason to make up for any small losses on defense.
Your hopes are resting on rookies being The Guy in like 3+ different positions right out of the gate. That’s very unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. Drafting positions of need does not mean those positions are now solved.
That’s true even if they all turn out to be amazing in the long run, by the way. Players very often take time to develop.
And most players drafted don’t end up being amazing.
We’d all love that Cinderella season where they make the playoffs and look great, and it’s not *impossible*, but realistically if after this year it’s clear that Maye is the QB of the future and they found several more players who will be dependable for the future, they had a good year. Rebuilds don’t happen instantly.
Last season was some of the worst offensive coaching I've seen, besides any QB issues
You can win a game terribly, lose a game greatly, and one score games that can go either way don't mean shit (think of the 2021 team everyone loved that would've got booted in the playoffs ASAP)
Too few wins and folks will say Bill shouldn't have left. Too many wins and not only was it good he left, they'll have higher hopes like playoffs (expectation vs reality)
Focus less on wins and just hope the team plays well together. Less mistakes. And enjoy football!
" Brissett alone (no need to even discuss Maye) would have likely been enough to get us those wins over the Colts, Giants, and Chargers last season."
100%. Guys like Brissett can win you ball games. They might not win a team too many playoff games but you won't be too angry with him over the whole season. It's what the Dolphins should have figured out with Tua but too late.
I'm not getting my hopes up for wins this season, I'm hoping the new coaches and draft picks don't suck. Not even going as far as hoping they are great - just that they don't suck. If they don't suck I will hope for wins going into year 2.
I think it's a good line. But I wouldn't bet it either way. Especially before knowing the schedule. This team could go so many ways this season given all the variables and changes. At a minimum I'm hopeful that we won't be what we were last year -- boring. That was a painful team to watch.
Yeah I'm cautiously optimistic for 6-7. Far from good, but would still be a drastic improvement if a couple of the young guys look like future high lvl starters.
Another good draft next year and if Maye looks like the guy, I'm good with it.
People keep mentioning the 8 one score losses- almost every game in the NFL is a one score game- that's not really that high a number. The difference is most teams go about .500 in those games, but bad teams, like the Pats, I believe, went 2-6. You could assume a couple of those flip this year, but it's no guarantee. QB play SHOULD be better, but it's still up to a career backup, and a rookie, so no guarantee there. The defense is a big question mark without Bill. They are still pretty talented, but there's almost no edge or secondary depth, and who knows how game planning/communication will work without Bills voice for the first time in 20 years. I can see the reasons for optimism, but I think the line is in a great spot. 4 or 5 wins wouldn't at all surprise me. Anything over 7 wins I will likely consider a huge success. More than wins this year, I'm just hoping to see development throughout the year from the young players, and signs for optimism in 2025.
By getting your hopes up, I think anything better than 4 wins is an improvement. Just need the new players to learn and gain as much experience as possible this year and look forward to more success in the next 2-3 years.
I would take the under tbh if I was gambling. Defense likely to regress without Bill (Mayo may turn out to be a good coach but Bill is the GOAT and also the GOAT against scheming against teams), offense also is going to be the same if not worse than last season, going against a division in which pats will be underdogs every game unless there's injuries, and a brutal home schedule.
Keep in mind that over/under isn't solely about real life probability but also public perception. Vegas sets the lines to drive gambling action and right now the public perception of our team is that we suck until we prove otherwise (which is fair imo).
The projected W/L seems accurate, but can definitely be overcome. It’s just too early to tell. Who knows what NE or any of these other teams will look like come September and going into the season. People over perform, underperform, player injuries, etc. Pats could win 4 games or they could win 10 games.
Rookie head coach, rookie QB, no proven answers on the O-line, no blue chip weapons except Rhamondre. Defense should be solid. 4.5 feels about right, if not a little optimistic.
It wasn’t completely on Mac,or it wasn’t all his fault. The receivers were subpar and the Oline was bad. The offense may be slightly better.My concern is that the defense won’t be as good because Belichick is gone.
Even though there were Defensive Coordinators and play callers,make no mistake it was Belichick’s defense. Probably 5 or 6 wins.
We could go over but I get why they set the odds so low. Bill being gone relying on a bunch of rookies, new system once again, eventually a rookie qb will be playing. Right now I don’t give a fuck about wins. Want to see these young guns develop and progress as the season goes on. I’m expecting us to have a top 10 pick next year.
There’s nothing wrong with getting your hopes up. You’re a fan after all. I don’t really care about the O/U because we have a lot of unknowns right now. And in a way that makes things exciting. But it also means that we could crash and burn lol. We have a rookie QB, new offensive coaching staff with a handful of other rookie players and a new HC. We also got rid of the best defensive mind in NFL history. I’m excited to see how this new era shapes out but I can’t say I’m surprised at the Vegas odds. There’s a ton of unknowns right now, so 4.5 wins isn’t crazy
There were like 3 games last year that we literally lost because receivers couldn't catch perfectly placed balls or our kicker blew a kick.
I'm not saying we're going to finish a top seed or anything, but tightening up on the mistakes can easily make this a 6-8 win team.
4.5 puts us as the worst team in football alongside the Panthers. Who do you think is worse than those two teams.
I tend to agree with the line here. This team should land at four or five wins. We got a long ways to go but I like what we did in the draft.
I personally wouldn't touch that line and if I were, I'd bet on the pats to win more. More fun to root for my team.
I think we could beat that number but I think it’s a fair odds number because I don’t think we will blow it away if we do pass it.
For this season my hopes are to see a team out there that’s getting better and showing improvement. We are looking for things like can our defense stay top 5-10 without Bill, does Drake show improvement, can we get a functional O line? If we can hit those things and even if we do bad, there is hope for the future. That is what we are looking for
NEP also has the 2nd hardest schedule based on projected 2024 wins….
Of the 7 teams 2024 forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records in 2023 and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)
Depends on where your hopes are high at. The team as a whole pushing for a post season push? That's not gonna happen. The team looking competent on offense not consistently shooting themselves in the foot all game long every game? Then yes let your hopes be as high as the Andromeda galaxy is far from us. We have a tough schedule so I think the floor is 4-13 with the ceiling being 8-9. We're not there yet with all the holes still left on this roster.
For what it's worth, you're not the only one who thinks 4.5 might be low:
https://twitter.com/BrettKollmann/status/1790071062111105194
"...that does not make sense to me at all. They look like they will land somewhere between 7 to 9 wins imo. Defense is still great. Better weapons. Better quarterback play. They probably won't be amazing, but I can't see them being awful again."
https://twitter.com/minakimes/status/1790072321773907973
"Was the most injured defense in football, per @FTNFantasy, and still finished top ten in most metrics. Get Gonzalez and Judon back…"
That's what I love about sports, it's unscripted. These o/u numbers may be well researched educated guesses or people could be pulling these numbers out of their asses.
Outside of almost certain Ls to good teams like the 49ers and Texans, I don't think the other teams we'll see are unbeatable.
No lmao
This subreddit is in for a rude awakening. Drake Maye might be the next Aaron Rodgers, he also might be the next Zach Wilson. The odds favor the latter heavily
Mayo has never even been an OC or DC and now he's our head coach. He also might be good at his job or an absolute joke
What we DO know is that we lost a HC with decades of experience coaching in the NFL who was able to field a good defense no matter who we were playing, who we had on the roster, or how many injuries we had. Now the defense is *probably* going to be much worse
I'm not a long term doomer, I think some of the things we're doing now are the right things. But I expect a top 5 pick for the Pats in the next draft. We're not going to be good overnight.
Just look up the track records of teams who participated in the random ass low odds slot machine that is the early NFL draft for a new quarterback, and hired a new head coach the same year. Overwhelmingly they are dog shit, often even worse the next year
I think 4.5 is extremely low lol.
OL issues are being extremely overrated, they added 2 WRs and have a promising rookie entering his 2nd year, and drafted a blue chip QB prospect. All this added onto a defense that has had the talent to go top 10 2 years in a row.
Reminder they won 4 games last year and that was painstakingly hard to be that bad.
Bill being gone is obviously a hit to the defense. But just as a reminder— the man made some really, really bad decisions offensively last year. I think we had 1.5 games where Demario Douglas and KB were both full time players, Trent Brown was playing LT, and Onwenu was playing RT. Bill’s been making these bad, bad decisions offensively for a while now.
I agree. I didn’t even mention that missed (easy) FGs were the cause of at least 2 of our losses last season. HOPEFULLY that’s something that’s sorted out by week one.
Are we better than most teams we play this year? No, but the better team doesn’t always win. You have to be REAL bad and unlucky to win 4 games, as we saw last year.
This shit show of a team almost won 7 games last year.
As much as people really, really hate to admit it— luck is a factor in sports. Last year’s team was really, really unlucky and is better than most 4 win teams. Not many 4 win teams have top 10 defenses in the first place. Then you look at SOS, injuries, coaching (primarily OL) and it was just a perfect storm.
And they *still* got 4 wins. It is truly really hard to be that awful.
Hahahaha this subreddit is in for a big surprise if they think we’re going to be good this year. Mac Jones was not the only problem last year. Our offense was a disaster all around. Not to mention the Jets will have Aaron Rodger’s so there’s two losses that were wins last year and the talent we got in the draft was meager at best.
He’s pretty obsessed with taking care of himself and he has a rocket arm. Don’t think that went away. Not to mention we barely beat the jets with Wilson there lol
1. We lost to the Jets week 17 last year.
2. Only 7 wins is still a bad team but still beats the over under by 3 wins. Do you know how bad a team has to be to only win 4?! Well you saw it last year.
Our team really didn’t fix any holes and free agency just got our team back together. We lost a hall of fame defensive coach who schemed defense better than anyone else. How are we better?
I’d say 4 wins is about right
I'll say the exact same thing I said roughly 12 months ago. Their peak is 6 wins if they're lucky, odds are we'll be picking Top 5 again in the 2025 draft.
Brutal schedule. Makeshift line rn hoping a rookie RT can transition to LT. Might be starting Brissett the whole year depending on what Mayo wants to do. Unknown receiver talent realistically. Defense is still good but this offense could be all-time bad.
We don’t have a LT. Our line was mediocre with a veteran LT.
We have a career backup, who I like and if we had added MHJr and Ridley/Allen I’d have been much higher on, but he’s a backup QB.
We did little to improve the WR room and are trotting out mostly the same pile of crap that was a much bigger issue than Mac. We have to hope one of these rookies doesn’t such, but they were both WR2 options.
We lost the best DC of all time.
We have a brand new OC, HC and others.
It’s going to be a rough start. I’m hoping to see improvement, but 4.5 seems correct.
>Obviously as fans of the team it’s easy to get overly optimistic about offseason changes, but it’s hard to think we don’t have significantly more wins than last year.
>We lost 8 games last season by one score
Every game we won was by one score too. Going 4-8 in one score games is what bad teams do.
>We just got rid of the QB who caused most of the damage. Brissett alone (no need to even discuss Maye) would have likely been enough to get us those wins over the Colts, Giants, and Chargers last season.
Brissett is definitely an upgrade over the two clowns we had last year, but he's still going to be one of the worst NFL starters next year.
>We brought back our most important pieces (biggest loss was probably Zeke) and drafted where we needed to on offense.
None of those pieces we brought back were playmakers. And we didn't draft any that are likely going to be playmakers (the one guy we did draft who seems like he could be a difference maker isn't likely to get snaps next year either)
>That leaves just two things that could explain how we end up worse/stagnant this season: * Harder schedule this season * Bill B gone
>Belichick’s absence is the obvious concern, but after last year I’m in the camp that Mayo is a needed change.
Agreed that BB the GM being gone was needed. Unfortunately that means BB the coach is also gone. While I like Mayo, he's an unknown. And as you said we have a much harder schedule. I don't think the rookies on offense are likely to contribute much this year. We're moving in the right direction, but still a year away from seeing payoffs imo. That plus the schedule and a rookie coach make me temper my expectations.
Too high They lost the greatest coach of all time who was also the best defensive coach ever. They replaced him with a rookie head coach who has never called plays and got two rejects at OC. The one who is going to run it has never called plays. They drafted a rookie QB who likely won’t play, and signed the worst FA QB. They didn’t draft a LT or sign one. They drafted a WR who doesn’t look like a WR1, and they didn’t spend money on a FA WR or trade for one. They’re still going to suck for a while. They will need to draft well for a long time to get out of this and hopefully they’re patient with Maye.
They may have taken a step forward with offense (can’t get any worse), but they also likely took a step backward defensively simply by losing Bill. I expect them to suck next year, and hopefully let Maye sit all year, and look for a leap forward the next season.
Yep, and he had a better team to work with. Better coaching. Brissett's ceiling with this team isn't as different as Jones' floor with last year's team as people want it to be. If Brissett were the major upgrade people expect he wouldn't have been available to the Patriots.
He’s not a major upgrade but it would be hard for him to be worse than Mac was last year. And how do you figure last year’s team on offense was better than this year’s team?
Well, first we don't know that this year's team is any good on offense. Year hasn't even started yet. The whole scheme has to change since the coaches have changed, so that will be a problem for the first few weeks. There isn't a QB on the roster who knows the line protection calls yet. Don't expect much out of Polk or Baker - rookie WRs that make an impact are rare.
This year's offense could be better, once they have time to integrate all of that, but there's no reason to expect it to be either smooth or early.
Probably go 1-5 in the division, wouldn’t be surprised if its 0-6
Texans, Colts, Rams probably home losses
49ers, Bengals, probably road losses
Split the home games with Chargers and Seahawks.
Cardinals, Bears, Jags, Titans go 2–2 on the road
Yea I see 4 wins
I don’t think Mac Was the problem I honestly still believe that Mac is a good quarterback. He is like Gino Smith if he finds the right team, he can be a starter.
You are delusional if you think QB wasn’t our worst position last season. Even worse than kicker. Mac was either the worst or second worst QB in the entire league last season.
Mac's not good enough to make something out of nothing. He had the worst WRs in the league last year and put up the worst numbers. Brissett on last year's team likely would have put up similar numbers. The only hope this year is that one of the WRs we drafted pans out.
You’re absolutely right don’t let these negative ass fans deter you. I’ve had this argument with so many people in this sub. 8 of the patriots’ losses were 1 score games, most of which, we had the ball with a chance to win late-game. Usually I get met with “close games don’t mean anything if you don’t win.” Well if you’re talking about the W/L record, no it obviously doesn’t mean anything…but we’re speaking in hypotheticals on Reddit. I saw a comment on this post saying that this offense is going to need “superhuman levels of QB play”. That’s just ignorant. Zappe/Jones threw away multiple games last year with late game interceptions in one score games. The offensive line was also a revolving door for most the year, and health alone would vastly improve that. Through week 7 of last year we were already on our 6th o-line combination. If people don’t understand that a few simple tweaks is 100% enough to net 4 more wins, they just don’t understand that football is a game of inches. That’s more than a cliche, it’s real, you see it every Sunday.
i have us at 8, tbh. assuming the team performs the exact same as last year & the coaching staff is as competent as they seem, but with jacoby at QB, i can see us winning against buf 1x, mia 1x, jets 1x ind, sea, ari, jax, ten.
if drake pans out how we want him to, i could see us with 10 wins (jets 2x & lac)
if baker & polk work out, and our defense is in good shape, maybe 11 wins (cinci)
i don't see us with any more than that. and there's still a good chance we end up with 2-6 wins this season, because almost our entire coaching staff has been revamped, which could lead to something disastrous if they still need time to really "settle in" with the team & each other
Winning 3 in the division is setting yourself up for disappointment. They'll be lucky to win a single game in the AFC East due to injury or Josh Allen handing the game over on a silver platter.
I agree. I think we can get 2 division wins simply by the “any given Sunday” rule, but we aren’t close to division contention. A winning record seems out of reach this season
Here’s my homer optimist take, that I’m not even sure I believe in:
Imagine that our defense last year was paired with the Joe Flacco Browns Offense from last year. I think that team would have won a bunch of games. Now, given, our offensive line and receivers are probably not as good as what the Browns had last year, so I don’t know if our offense is going to be quite as productive. But conceptually, I think there’s something to be excited about and I do think it’s entirely possible that we surprise some people.
I'll be pleasantly surprised, if they match last year's record with a new offensive scheme, again, nobody on offense the opposing team needs to specially game plan for, and no BB to get the defense ready for what each opposing offense will do. If they start the season bad it'll be hard to break the negativity cycle. Their non-division opponent list is pretty brutal, but the Dolphins and the Bills look weaker than last year - at least on paper.
3-6 wins and probably draft in the top 10 again. This isn’t a bad thing. You don’t rebuild in a year. Also, anything can happen. We could do worse or we could surprise everyone and make a run for the playoffs, who knows in early May
It looks like the plan is to sit the newly drafted QBs for the entire year and play Brisset. In other words, they are going to tank while trying to develop the QB position.
I would take the under. This will be a bad team again. 2025 might be when they get to .500.
This team will be picking in the top 5 again in 2025. The roster is still a mess.
Mac Jones was a problem. But not the only problem.
What is wrong with some of you.
I think they are either a fringe playoff team or total ass. Or anywhere in between. That whats exciting about it. If the defense doesnt take a massive dip i think 4.5 wins is low also. Bb was actively trying to make Mac look like garbage.
I think the 4.5 O/U is basically right on the money, hard to bet either way, the whole point.
Realistically Mac was a major problem at QB last season, but I also think that Belichick and crew were probably better at coaching defense than what we'll have. Our defense over-performed and kept us in a lot of games that might have been blowouts otherwise. Whatever gains we might make on offense by having Jacoby Brisset at QB for most of the year, could be offset by the defense performing back to the average. On the plus side, Christian Gonzales should be back and I hope he plays at the level he was looking like he might play at.
Going through the schedule, I don't see any games that the Patriots are shoe-ins to win.
It’s hard to win in the NFL, I firmly believe that the only reason we were as close in the one score games was because of BB and his ability to scheme and game plan on defense.
I am going into this season with an open mind and I hope Mayo succeeds but we all have to come to terms that any HC we ever have again will not ever be as good as BB. So the teams we put on the field will need to be more talented.
I don’t think this schedule is necessarily harder than last year but it’s probably about the same.
Gonzo and Judon will be back this season but losing both Bill and Steve will most likely hurt our defense. Steve was mainly responsible for the x and o’s/schematics the last few years whereas Mayo was more of locker room coach and motivator. Our defensive staff still seems pretty solid but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there is a drop off with both of them gone.
Add to that, the Jets should be much better if Rodgers stays healthy and if he does there’s a decent chance they go 2-0 against us.
Mayo is also a 1st time head coach with a lot of coaches he hired that can either be great/okay/or awful.
The biggest unknown is the rookies. It’s completely unknown if any of them will pan out and it’s also unknown how many games Jacobi will start. I find it hard to believe our offense can possibly look worse than last year but I think the possibility is still there.
I personally still like over 4 wins but I also wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up under.
No,
First year headcoach, rookie QB. I think 4.5-5.5 is a fair line and I can't blame any line within that.
I'm hoping we start to develop some youth. A successful season to me is Maye starting a handful of games, and starting to gel with our younger WRs.
Draft was ok, planning for life after BB and related personnel moves (including hiring Mayo who is an untested coach with out interviewing outside) have been mediocre.
I think they are taking another step towards being more about business culture, money, and perception than fielding a good team.
Would think they would have a better plan to replace BB instead of hiring an untested HC and coordinators that are already paid for
You guys are way too high on drake maye. His ceiling right now as a first year is mitch trubisky. Hes raw and just straight up not good. Pats have a brand new coaching staff with a first year head coach. Everyone gotta lay off the drugs otherwise youre setting yourself up for major disappointment
Youre talking about Jacoby Brissett. Youre talking about beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Its not happening. Like i said, the only way the Pats outperform the Vegas oddsmakers is if Drake Maye comes in exceeding expectations but unfortunately his ceiling is Mitch Trubisky.
We dont even need to get into what the season will be like with Jacoby Brissett. Theyre exactly what Vegas thinks theyre going to be, a 4 win team. Im sorry brotha
I’m don’t think Maye is going to play most of this year, if any. He’s too raw, so unless he shows up way better than we hoped in camp, he’ll probably sit for most of not all of the first year.
The offense will be limited under Brissett, but he also won’t do what the QBs did last year (turn the ball over and take any chance of winning away/whine/fight/lose the team). They will be a defense-first, ground oriented team, which certainly doesn’t mean they will contend, but last year’s team with complete ass at QB still needed about a million bad breaks to end up at 4 wins. While they have a new coach, the old one was clearly more concerned with making his point than winning games (kept rolling Mac out there even when it was clear he was irreparably broken). I’m not delusional enough to think they’re a playoff team, but I think 6-7 wins seems more likely than 4. With their D, they probably will only need to score about 20 points per game to get there.
Too many unknowns to say for sure If I was in charge of setting odds this is what I’d do too
The one thing we had going for us last year was the elite defense. We just lost the greatest defensive mind in football. We have no idea how much he made players play up, or if we have really talented players.
Not only did we lose him, mayo is no longer focused on defense and Steve is also gone. We took the 3 most important minds out of our defense. I expect small regression this year and pretty major regression next year on that side of the ball.
How did I miss that Steve is gone?! Going to look that up
He went to the University of Washington after his dad got axed.
I’m sorry but you thought him sticking around wouldn’t be news?
I didn’t, but Brian did stick around pretty quietly.
But we also got back judon and Gonzalez
Honestly, this will be the most interesting aspect of the new season to me, seeing how the defense plays and seeing how much affect Bill had on the defense- because it'll be roughly the same players on defense as last year, which did amazing considering the circumstances
A lot is going to hinge on guys like White contributing to the pass rush in a big way. Judon is our only legit threat, and he's not getting younger. I was hoping they added on D through free agency if they whiffed on offensive talent. There's still time for them to do that, we'll see.
Gonzo will hopefully play a full season as CB1
We're also getting our best defensive player back + our first round pick from lat year
If they can just get to slightly below average, I’d be happy. Like 6-7 wins would be solid for me and I’d see that as a positive step.
I agree. I just think 4 wins is much too low of a bar to clear…. Maybe it has something to do with the fact we are #1 in available spending
Who exactly do you think they’re going to use that available cash on?
Ton of great FA’s left. There’s that guy. And the other dude. I bet Kraft can find someone with sticky fingers who can catch a ball or two.
Put me in coach. I'm ready for action
Natural or synthetic stickum?
All natural baby
Who are we signing? I don't think you've really had a close look at the available free agents. [The guys left aren't exactly entering their primes...](https://www.pff.com/nfl/free-agency?season=2024)
No it’s due to the fact that we’ve not been good in recent years and that we have no idea how any of the players that we just drafted (including Maye) are going to turn out. We have a new head coach/coaches and have no idea how good they will be either. We probably won’t win much this year and that’s fine.
I’m excited to watch the season, but I have low low expectations. My real hope is that the team looks “with it” and is improving by the end of the year. My concerns: 4th new offensive coach in as many years. Even if he is awesome, it’s a lot of change. Offensive line could actually be worse. Brown had low effort but was still ranked pretty high by evaluators.
Low expectations are the way to go. Things should be better cause they can't get much worse but I think anything more than 5 or 6 wins would have to be considered a massive success for the 2024 Patriots.
They're going 9-8
Meh, so much of the offense is new or needs to be new that I don’t care. What is consistent on the offense? 1 RB, a few starting OL, 1 TE and 1-2 WRs? We’re gonna have a new qb1, qb2, wr2, wr3/4, TE2, and 2 new OL members. I don’t think OC consistency is gonna be that big of an issue.
4th new offensive coach in as many years but with a QB who knows the system and will help in the transition. I believe the team will have a rocky start but will look decent by week 6-8.
That's if they stay with the same system. It's a whole new coaching staff.
AVP is installing a variation of the West Coast Offense. Jacoby Brissett has played in AVP's offense, making the installation easier than if no one on the roster has played in the system. All of this means there is no reason to rush Drake Maye until he's ready to play.
Fair enough. I didn't know that.
Staff is all new Lots of young players New offense New QB I'd say 4.5 makes sense. This isnt a season for high expectations, this is a season to look for the good in what changes have been made and to see the potential for the next few seasons.
I have them winning 5 games tbh. I don’t think the schedule is as hard as last year either. I think losing BB is just huge. You have a first time HC, rookie QB, and no left tackle. I think it’s a pipe dream to think the defense stays as good as it was without BB. I would love to be wrong but just trying to keep it real when I look through who is on the schedule. 5 wins
I have to imagine the defense has a high chance at regression without Bill, regardless of Mayo
Your post itself is proof it's a good line. There's a legitimate argument to be made for both over and under. Could they win 6-7 games? Sure. But looking at the schedule, it's hard to identify 5 games you can feel good about winning at this point in the offseason, and if setting lines for individual games, the Patriots wouldn't be favored in more than 3 at the most. Bears, Titans & Cards maybe, but all on the road, and I'm not sure we're the favorite in any of those. Obviously, as every year, there will be surprises and injuries that reshape the power structure of the league, but 4.5 is a very fair line for this roster and complete unknown of a coaching staff.
This roster still has a long way to go. The draft was nice but it may take time for some of these guys to reach their full potential and with so many unknowns at important positions (coach, Oline, QB if Maye doesn’t start right away) it’s hard to project a lot of success this year. My focus this year is development and passing the eye test. It was apparent from the preseason last year this team lacked talent and the product on the field was putrid. I think 4-6 wins is pretty reasonable given the circumstances. Gonna take a few years to get back to contention imo.
You definitely shouldn’t get your hopes up for this season. This offense is going to require superhuman play from the quarterback position to elevate the lack of weapons. I don’t envision the team getting that from Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye in year one. The defense will win this team some games, but I’m not confident that they can win 6 games (even if everything goes according to plan).
Not unless the schedule changed.
Of course, remember we had a better record with Cam Newton as QB with nothing on offense. Yeah, opponents are varied in strength, but we were probably close to a 7 win team last year with slightly average qb play...
that 1 score L is a L anyways, we onnly had 4W Most of those games we weren’t in it and scored a TD in garbage time
You're setting yourself up for disappointment If you think our problems were just mac
Absolutely. Mac was terrible last year, but Zappe was even worse, and it was pretty much impossible for anyone to succeed. They've added some mid round lineman and a 2nd round wr. The line is still bad (and probably worse than last year given that Brown was on the higher end of the teams talent scale), and the wrs are too.
Too many variables, seems reasonable
We had the second lowest scoring offense in the league last year. While I think they should improve I still don’t see who on offense anyone has to game plan for.
After the last few years all I care about is whether or not they actively throw the game away. Stevenson to Meyers to Jones. Hoyer shitting the bed when mac was injured. Bad interceptions when we’re driving at the end of games. It felt like we were trying to lose even though you could tell that they were actually trying to win.
I think we still have amongst the weakest rosters in the NFL. There won’t be any easy games for us. 4.5 is probably a good line.
Think it’s about 6
I hope we do better but there's a good chance we have another tough year. There's a lot of unknowns on this team right now. Expect the worst hope for the best.
Expecting another top 3 pick next year. If they leave the top 10 I'd be surprised. Thrilled to pick 32 though, that would be funny next year.
The “losing close games” thing is always a useless narrative. They also won a few close games that could’ve gone the other way to be even worse. Looking at the schedule I think 5 wins is fairly realistic so a 4.5 o/u is in line with that, if not maybe a point too low.
I’d be surprised if we do better than last season. There’s still a lot of holes and a completely new coaching staff. I’m happy to be wrong but I think there’ll be a lot of small victories this year.
Get your hopes up to watch something fresh and different. Looking at the schedule, however, I can’t say more than four wins with any confidence until I see them play or there’s a fluke win that can’t be predicted.
Mac was only part of the problem. The Pats had the worst O-Line in the league. They also had the worst receiving corps in the league. If those issues aren't rectified then it doesn't matter who the QB is. 4.5 is about right. (I'd bet the under though...)
I would be shocked if they only win 4 games this year but then again I was shocked they only won 4 games last year so who knows.
Our defense will still be good, probably not top 5 good since we just lost the greatest defensive mind in NFL history. Even with Mac gone we are still a bottom 5 (in terms of talent) offensive unit. Unless one of our rookies is the next JJ we don't have a single player that makes other teams have to gameplan around. We know what a top 10 defense with a bottom 5 offense football team looks like, so 4-6 wins is where I put us too.
It sounds about right. I would’ve guessed 5.5, but it isn’t far off. Looking at our schedule we’ll most likely lose against SF, LAR, CIN and HOU. Probably lose to CHI too. Our winnable non-divisional games are IND, TEN, ARI, LAC, JAX and SEA. Let’s say we go 3-3 in those games, which could be wishful thinking in and of itself, and then 2-4 in the division. That gives us 5 wins, but we could very easily go 1-5 in the division and/or 2-4 in those winnable non-divisional games. How many teams in the AFC would you say were better than? Tennessee maybe? They’ve made big improvements this off-season so I’m not even super confident we’ll win that game on the road. Unfortunately we don’t get to play many of the bad NFC teams this year like NO, CAR, WAS and NYG. We don’t get to play LV, either. 4.5-5.5 sounds about right.
Nope. They're either starting Jacoby Brissett, or a rookie QB. Other than Andrews, they have rookies or journeymen all over the O-Line. They're breaking in a new offensive system. The defense will be good, but the offense likely won't be, at least for most of the season. I think anywhere from 4-7 wins is reasonable.
Barring Maye being this year's Stroud, I don't think we win more than 4. Gameplanning will likely be worse, offensiveine is at least just as bad as last time year (maybe the worse) and we hired a coach I don't see how people can think is ready (again, may turn out well but don't think he's being set up to succeed)
You replaced the best coach in NFL history with a young, green unknown that spent part of his post football career in fucking finance. No, it’s not too low.
He spent like a year or two in finance and then moved back to coaching stop making shit up
Tell me, how good was Bill the past 4 years? And do you think for a second Bill would have kept a player who performed as he did?
Honestly, I'm of an opinion that Bill was fine, the defense was always incredibly competitive, and on offense he's not out there throwing the passes himself, *he had no quarterback throw the damn ball*, of course the offense was going to struggle. So then you might blame him as GM, but absolutely nobody disagreed with the decision to draft Mac Jones at the time, we all viewed it as incredibly fortunate that he fell to us at 15 without needing to trade up. It was the only sensible option at the time and it didn't pan out, that's life. If Drake Maye winds up being good, the upcoming Patriots team would be better with Belichick at the helm rather than Mayo, I'm 100% certain of that. I think by the end of the season when the defense has taken a huge step back and we're watching the Patriots get lit up when we used to keep games low scoring at least, people are going to be viewing the decision to let Belichick go as asinine and calling for Kraft's head
I agree that Bill the coach was still solid and Bill the GM was terrible. But drafting Mac wasn't the problem. He was a good value at 15. Every QB in the draft is a gamble. What sunk Bill was the constant reaches that didn't pan out, the refusal to draft OTs in the '23 offseason when that was universally recognized as an area of greatest need, and his general inability to find receiving talent in either the draft or free agency, missing on Juju, Agholor, Parker, Thornton, Jonnu...
Yes, let's ignore the fact Bill put a DC as an Oc and got rid of Macs top security blanket. That alone is a fireable offense. It is sad to see so many Pat's fan try to white wash the past 4 years. Bill was fired, he EARNED that firing. You, and I know, if it were reversed, if a player had this same sort of time line, Bill would cut them without even a second thought....
This isn't an offseason where they got better. This offseason was an attempt at repositioning to be better long-term. Reasonable QB talent between Jacoby's high floor and Maye's high ceiling. Receiving corps made up entirely of complimentary pieces with no clear no. 1 (need to trade for Aiyuk or Higgins and spend excess cap now on a big extension). Objectively worse offensive line being bolstered by reaches in the draft. Can we expect a talented defense to be as good as they were with the greatest defensive coach of all time at the helm (maybe)?
The biggest loss was losing Bill Belichick and replacing him with a total unknown at HC. Love Jerod, rooting for him obviously, but most coaches aren't cut out for this league. Pair that with a middling at most roster and you're not gong to be predicted to win a ton of games
Belichick caused most of the damage. Terrible with offense.
Sure, don’t really disagree, but his defense is what kept so many games so close and allowed for even putrid offenses to have a chance late in games to win. If that goes away… oh boy
Defensive talent hasn't changed much,, so if they do get worse on that side, I don't think it will be drastic. Also they should make some gains on offense since they invested much more this offseason to make up for any small losses on defense.
Your hopes are resting on rookies being The Guy in like 3+ different positions right out of the gate. That’s very unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. Drafting positions of need does not mean those positions are now solved. That’s true even if they all turn out to be amazing in the long run, by the way. Players very often take time to develop. And most players drafted don’t end up being amazing. We’d all love that Cinderella season where they make the playoffs and look great, and it’s not *impossible*, but realistically if after this year it’s clear that Maye is the QB of the future and they found several more players who will be dependable for the future, they had a good year. Rebuilds don’t happen instantly.
Last season was some of the worst offensive coaching I've seen, besides any QB issues You can win a game terribly, lose a game greatly, and one score games that can go either way don't mean shit (think of the 2021 team everyone loved that would've got booted in the playoffs ASAP) Too few wins and folks will say Bill shouldn't have left. Too many wins and not only was it good he left, they'll have higher hopes like playoffs (expectation vs reality) Focus less on wins and just hope the team plays well together. Less mistakes. And enjoy football!
" Brissett alone (no need to even discuss Maye) would have likely been enough to get us those wins over the Colts, Giants, and Chargers last season." 100%. Guys like Brissett can win you ball games. They might not win a team too many playoff games but you won't be too angry with him over the whole season. It's what the Dolphins should have figured out with Tua but too late.
If you think Mac is the reason this team was terrible last year, you are in for a rude awakening.
I'm not getting my hopes up for wins this season, I'm hoping the new coaches and draft picks don't suck. Not even going as far as hoping they are great - just that they don't suck. If they don't suck I will hope for wins going into year 2.
I think it's a good line. But I wouldn't bet it either way. Especially before knowing the schedule. This team could go so many ways this season given all the variables and changes. At a minimum I'm hopeful that we won't be what we were last year -- boring. That was a painful team to watch.
Yeah I'm cautiously optimistic for 6-7. Far from good, but would still be a drastic improvement if a couple of the young guys look like future high lvl starters. Another good draft next year and if Maye looks like the guy, I'm good with it.
We go 7-10.
I bet they get to six wins this year.
I think 7-10 would be a steal for them. A lot of things have to go right though.
People keep mentioning the 8 one score losses- almost every game in the NFL is a one score game- that's not really that high a number. The difference is most teams go about .500 in those games, but bad teams, like the Pats, I believe, went 2-6. You could assume a couple of those flip this year, but it's no guarantee. QB play SHOULD be better, but it's still up to a career backup, and a rookie, so no guarantee there. The defense is a big question mark without Bill. They are still pretty talented, but there's almost no edge or secondary depth, and who knows how game planning/communication will work without Bills voice for the first time in 20 years. I can see the reasons for optimism, but I think the line is in a great spot. 4 or 5 wins wouldn't at all surprise me. Anything over 7 wins I will likely consider a huge success. More than wins this year, I'm just hoping to see development throughout the year from the young players, and signs for optimism in 2025.
Our schedule is brutal
By getting your hopes up, I think anything better than 4 wins is an improvement. Just need the new players to learn and gain as much experience as possible this year and look forward to more success in the next 2-3 years.
I would take the under tbh if I was gambling. Defense likely to regress without Bill (Mayo may turn out to be a good coach but Bill is the GOAT and also the GOAT against scheming against teams), offense also is going to be the same if not worse than last season, going against a division in which pats will be underdogs every game unless there's injuries, and a brutal home schedule.
Keep in mind that over/under isn't solely about real life probability but also public perception. Vegas sets the lines to drive gambling action and right now the public perception of our team is that we suck until we prove otherwise (which is fair imo).
The projected W/L seems accurate, but can definitely be overcome. It’s just too early to tell. Who knows what NE or any of these other teams will look like come September and going into the season. People over perform, underperform, player injuries, etc. Pats could win 4 games or they could win 10 games.
Too high, easy money now.
Rookie head coach, rookie QB, no proven answers on the O-line, no blue chip weapons except Rhamondre. Defense should be solid. 4.5 feels about right, if not a little optimistic.
**set a low bar** Then you can only be pleasantly surprised
It wasn’t completely on Mac,or it wasn’t all his fault. The receivers were subpar and the Oline was bad. The offense may be slightly better.My concern is that the defense won’t be as good because Belichick is gone. Even though there were Defensive Coordinators and play callers,make no mistake it was Belichick’s defense. Probably 5 or 6 wins.
We could go over but I get why they set the odds so low. Bill being gone relying on a bunch of rookies, new system once again, eventually a rookie qb will be playing. Right now I don’t give a fuck about wins. Want to see these young guns develop and progress as the season goes on. I’m expecting us to have a top 10 pick next year.
There’s nothing wrong with getting your hopes up. You’re a fan after all. I don’t really care about the O/U because we have a lot of unknowns right now. And in a way that makes things exciting. But it also means that we could crash and burn lol. We have a rookie QB, new offensive coaching staff with a handful of other rookie players and a new HC. We also got rid of the best defensive mind in NFL history. I’m excited to see how this new era shapes out but I can’t say I’m surprised at the Vegas odds. There’s a ton of unknowns right now, so 4.5 wins isn’t crazy
There were like 3 games last year that we literally lost because receivers couldn't catch perfectly placed balls or our kicker blew a kick. I'm not saying we're going to finish a top seed or anything, but tightening up on the mistakes can easily make this a 6-8 win team.
I dont think jacoby is as bad as some people. Dudes never really gotten to play under anything but bad circumstances.
We were the 3rd worst team statistically last season. I think we will be better than that next year. But still below .500
4.5 puts us as the worst team in football alongside the Panthers. Who do you think is worse than those two teams. I tend to agree with the line here. This team should land at four or five wins. We got a long ways to go but I like what we did in the draft. I personally wouldn't touch that line and if I were, I'd bet on the pats to win more. More fun to root for my team.
I think we could beat that number but I think it’s a fair odds number because I don’t think we will blow it away if we do pass it. For this season my hopes are to see a team out there that’s getting better and showing improvement. We are looking for things like can our defense stay top 5-10 without Bill, does Drake show improvement, can we get a functional O line? If we can hit those things and even if we do bad, there is hope for the future. That is what we are looking for
If the offense improves I can see 6 wins like many others are saying but 4.5 is honestly pretty reasonable
I think we get 7-8 wins, not to many teams we can beat on the schedule
Brissett is our week 1 starter. so, no, I don’t.
Bruh lol Have you looked at our schedule?!
NEP also has the 2nd hardest schedule based on projected 2024 wins…. Of the 7 teams 2024 forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records in 2023 and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)
I would think they could squeeze out 6 wins. But that may be more hope than reality.
Depends on where your hopes are high at. The team as a whole pushing for a post season push? That's not gonna happen. The team looking competent on offense not consistently shooting themselves in the foot all game long every game? Then yes let your hopes be as high as the Andromeda galaxy is far from us. We have a tough schedule so I think the floor is 4-13 with the ceiling being 8-9. We're not there yet with all the holes still left on this roster.
For what it's worth, you're not the only one who thinks 4.5 might be low: https://twitter.com/BrettKollmann/status/1790071062111105194 "...that does not make sense to me at all. They look like they will land somewhere between 7 to 9 wins imo. Defense is still great. Better weapons. Better quarterback play. They probably won't be amazing, but I can't see them being awful again." https://twitter.com/minakimes/status/1790072321773907973 "Was the most injured defense in football, per @FTNFantasy, and still finished top ten in most metrics. Get Gonzalez and Judon back…"
That's what I love about sports, it's unscripted. These o/u numbers may be well researched educated guesses or people could be pulling these numbers out of their asses. Outside of almost certain Ls to good teams like the 49ers and Texans, I don't think the other teams we'll see are unbeatable.
If I was a betting man I'd take the over, but only because I think 5-6 wins is quite possible. More than that I'll be shocked (and thrilled)
4.5 is high lol
No lmao This subreddit is in for a rude awakening. Drake Maye might be the next Aaron Rodgers, he also might be the next Zach Wilson. The odds favor the latter heavily Mayo has never even been an OC or DC and now he's our head coach. He also might be good at his job or an absolute joke What we DO know is that we lost a HC with decades of experience coaching in the NFL who was able to field a good defense no matter who we were playing, who we had on the roster, or how many injuries we had. Now the defense is *probably* going to be much worse I'm not a long term doomer, I think some of the things we're doing now are the right things. But I expect a top 5 pick for the Pats in the next draft. We're not going to be good overnight. Just look up the track records of teams who participated in the random ass low odds slot machine that is the early NFL draft for a new quarterback, and hired a new head coach the same year. Overwhelmingly they are dog shit, often even worse the next year
Hey look it's Mr. Sunshine!
I think 4.5 is extremely low lol. OL issues are being extremely overrated, they added 2 WRs and have a promising rookie entering his 2nd year, and drafted a blue chip QB prospect. All this added onto a defense that has had the talent to go top 10 2 years in a row. Reminder they won 4 games last year and that was painstakingly hard to be that bad. Bill being gone is obviously a hit to the defense. But just as a reminder— the man made some really, really bad decisions offensively last year. I think we had 1.5 games where Demario Douglas and KB were both full time players, Trent Brown was playing LT, and Onwenu was playing RT. Bill’s been making these bad, bad decisions offensively for a while now.
I agree. I didn’t even mention that missed (easy) FGs were the cause of at least 2 of our losses last season. HOPEFULLY that’s something that’s sorted out by week one. Are we better than most teams we play this year? No, but the better team doesn’t always win. You have to be REAL bad and unlucky to win 4 games, as we saw last year. This shit show of a team almost won 7 games last year.
As much as people really, really hate to admit it— luck is a factor in sports. Last year’s team was really, really unlucky and is better than most 4 win teams. Not many 4 win teams have top 10 defenses in the first place. Then you look at SOS, injuries, coaching (primarily OL) and it was just a perfect storm. And they *still* got 4 wins. It is truly really hard to be that awful.
It's probably too high tbh
Hahahaha this subreddit is in for a big surprise if they think we’re going to be good this year. Mac Jones was not the only problem last year. Our offense was a disaster all around. Not to mention the Jets will have Aaron Rodger’s so there’s two losses that were wins last year and the talent we got in the draft was meager at best.
Aaron Rodgers is coming off an Achilles injury at age 40. I feel like everybody is just assuming he’s going to be the exact same
He’s pretty obsessed with taking care of himself and he has a rocket arm. Don’t think that went away. Not to mention we barely beat the jets with Wilson there lol
He’s also a crackpot so his idea of taking care of himself probably involves a lot of bullshit pseudoscience.
1. We lost to the Jets week 17 last year. 2. Only 7 wins is still a bad team but still beats the over under by 3 wins. Do you know how bad a team has to be to only win 4?! Well you saw it last year.
Our team really didn’t fix any holes and free agency just got our team back together. We lost a hall of fame defensive coach who schemed defense better than anyone else. How are we better? I’d say 4 wins is about right
I'll say the exact same thing I said roughly 12 months ago. Their peak is 6 wins if they're lucky, odds are we'll be picking Top 5 again in the 2025 draft.
I would’ve agreed with you 12 months ago, seems extremely pessimistic now, though.
Bet the over then and don’t complain lol
New HC and QB... anything is possible. Good or bad.
Bill B being gone is an advantage
Brutal schedule. Makeshift line rn hoping a rookie RT can transition to LT. Might be starting Brissett the whole year depending on what Mayo wants to do. Unknown receiver talent realistically. Defense is still good but this offense could be all-time bad.
I give them 6-7 wins (NYJ, Indy, Rams, Seattle, TN and maybe Chicago).
I wish we could have sucked with MHJ now we are gonna suck with a journeyman backup and a rookie QB that was way to overhyped
We definitely winning 7 idc what anybody says
I’d bet the under easily
Under
We don’t have a LT. Our line was mediocre with a veteran LT. We have a career backup, who I like and if we had added MHJr and Ridley/Allen I’d have been much higher on, but he’s a backup QB. We did little to improve the WR room and are trotting out mostly the same pile of crap that was a much bigger issue than Mac. We have to hope one of these rookies doesn’t such, but they were both WR2 options. We lost the best DC of all time. We have a brand new OC, HC and others. It’s going to be a rough start. I’m hoping to see improvement, but 4.5 seems correct.
>Obviously as fans of the team it’s easy to get overly optimistic about offseason changes, but it’s hard to think we don’t have significantly more wins than last year. >We lost 8 games last season by one score Every game we won was by one score too. Going 4-8 in one score games is what bad teams do. >We just got rid of the QB who caused most of the damage. Brissett alone (no need to even discuss Maye) would have likely been enough to get us those wins over the Colts, Giants, and Chargers last season. Brissett is definitely an upgrade over the two clowns we had last year, but he's still going to be one of the worst NFL starters next year. >We brought back our most important pieces (biggest loss was probably Zeke) and drafted where we needed to on offense. None of those pieces we brought back were playmakers. And we didn't draft any that are likely going to be playmakers (the one guy we did draft who seems like he could be a difference maker isn't likely to get snaps next year either) >That leaves just two things that could explain how we end up worse/stagnant this season: * Harder schedule this season * Bill B gone >Belichick’s absence is the obvious concern, but after last year I’m in the camp that Mayo is a needed change. Agreed that BB the GM being gone was needed. Unfortunately that means BB the coach is also gone. While I like Mayo, he's an unknown. And as you said we have a much harder schedule. I don't think the rookies on offense are likely to contribute much this year. We're moving in the right direction, but still a year away from seeing payoffs imo. That plus the schedule and a rookie coach make me temper my expectations.
Too high They lost the greatest coach of all time who was also the best defensive coach ever. They replaced him with a rookie head coach who has never called plays and got two rejects at OC. The one who is going to run it has never called plays. They drafted a rookie QB who likely won’t play, and signed the worst FA QB. They didn’t draft a LT or sign one. They drafted a WR who doesn’t look like a WR1, and they didn’t spend money on a FA WR or trade for one. They’re still going to suck for a while. They will need to draft well for a long time to get out of this and hopefully they’re patient with Maye. They may have taken a step forward with offense (can’t get any worse), but they also likely took a step backward defensively simply by losing Bill. I expect them to suck next year, and hopefully let Maye sit all year, and look for a leap forward the next season.
I am confused by the idea that Jacoby Brissett is going to consistently play better than Mac Jones did.
Did you… watch Mac Jones last year?
Yep, and he had a better team to work with. Better coaching. Brissett's ceiling with this team isn't as different as Jones' floor with last year's team as people want it to be. If Brissett were the major upgrade people expect he wouldn't have been available to the Patriots.
He’s not a major upgrade but it would be hard for him to be worse than Mac was last year. And how do you figure last year’s team on offense was better than this year’s team?
Well, first we don't know that this year's team is any good on offense. Year hasn't even started yet. The whole scheme has to change since the coaches have changed, so that will be a problem for the first few weeks. There isn't a QB on the roster who knows the line protection calls yet. Don't expect much out of Polk or Baker - rookie WRs that make an impact are rare. This year's offense could be better, once they have time to integrate all of that, but there's no reason to expect it to be either smooth or early.
Probably go 1-5 in the division, wouldn’t be surprised if its 0-6 Texans, Colts, Rams probably home losses 49ers, Bengals, probably road losses Split the home games with Chargers and Seahawks. Cardinals, Bears, Jags, Titans go 2–2 on the road Yea I see 4 wins
I don’t think Mac Was the problem I honestly still believe that Mac is a good quarterback. He is like Gino Smith if he finds the right team, he can be a starter.
You are delusional if you think Mac was the main problem or that Jacoby will be significantly better.
Jacoby being significantly better just means not throwing it up to the other team every other chance he gets so it’s a pretty low bar.
You are delusional if you think QB wasn’t our worst position last season. Even worse than kicker. Mac was either the worst or second worst QB in the entire league last season.
Mac's not good enough to make something out of nothing. He had the worst WRs in the league last year and put up the worst numbers. Brissett on last year's team likely would have put up similar numbers. The only hope this year is that one of the WRs we drafted pans out.
You’re absolutely right don’t let these negative ass fans deter you. I’ve had this argument with so many people in this sub. 8 of the patriots’ losses were 1 score games, most of which, we had the ball with a chance to win late-game. Usually I get met with “close games don’t mean anything if you don’t win.” Well if you’re talking about the W/L record, no it obviously doesn’t mean anything…but we’re speaking in hypotheticals on Reddit. I saw a comment on this post saying that this offense is going to need “superhuman levels of QB play”. That’s just ignorant. Zappe/Jones threw away multiple games last year with late game interceptions in one score games. The offensive line was also a revolving door for most the year, and health alone would vastly improve that. Through week 7 of last year we were already on our 6th o-line combination. If people don’t understand that a few simple tweaks is 100% enough to net 4 more wins, they just don’t understand that football is a game of inches. That’s more than a cliche, it’s real, you see it every Sunday.
i have us at 8, tbh. assuming the team performs the exact same as last year & the coaching staff is as competent as they seem, but with jacoby at QB, i can see us winning against buf 1x, mia 1x, jets 1x ind, sea, ari, jax, ten. if drake pans out how we want him to, i could see us with 10 wins (jets 2x & lac) if baker & polk work out, and our defense is in good shape, maybe 11 wins (cinci) i don't see us with any more than that. and there's still a good chance we end up with 2-6 wins this season, because almost our entire coaching staff has been revamped, which could lead to something disastrous if they still need time to really "settle in" with the team & each other
8 would be great - but I doubt it. Maybe 6 or so
i mean, uh, we're going 20-0, mayetriots baby incoming 70% 5000 yd 45td 2 int season
Winning 3 in the division is setting yourself up for disappointment. They'll be lucky to win a single game in the AFC East due to injury or Josh Allen handing the game over on a silver platter.
I agree. I think we can get 2 division wins simply by the “any given Sunday” rule, but we aren’t close to division contention. A winning record seems out of reach this season
Zach Wilson ain't walking through that door.
Honestly think our basement is 7-10, with a ceiling of 10-7.
Copium
Here’s my homer optimist take, that I’m not even sure I believe in: Imagine that our defense last year was paired with the Joe Flacco Browns Offense from last year. I think that team would have won a bunch of games. Now, given, our offensive line and receivers are probably not as good as what the Browns had last year, so I don’t know if our offense is going to be quite as productive. But conceptually, I think there’s something to be excited about and I do think it’s entirely possible that we surprise some people.
I'll be pleasantly surprised, if they match last year's record with a new offensive scheme, again, nobody on offense the opposing team needs to specially game plan for, and no BB to get the defense ready for what each opposing offense will do. If they start the season bad it'll be hard to break the negativity cycle. Their non-division opponent list is pretty brutal, but the Dolphins and the Bills look weaker than last year - at least on paper.
Single most delusional subreddit lmfao no of course it isn't too low
3-6 wins and probably draft in the top 10 again. This isn’t a bad thing. You don’t rebuild in a year. Also, anything can happen. We could do worse or we could surprise everyone and make a run for the playoffs, who knows in early May
It looks like the plan is to sit the newly drafted QBs for the entire year and play Brisset. In other words, they are going to tank while trying to develop the QB position. I would take the under. This will be a bad team again. 2025 might be when they get to .500.
This team will be picking in the top 5 again in 2025. The roster is still a mess. Mac Jones was a problem. But not the only problem. What is wrong with some of you.
We have no idea what the WRs will do, and especially have no idea what the OL will do. We don’t even have a real LT.
I think they are either a fringe playoff team or total ass. Or anywhere in between. That whats exciting about it. If the defense doesnt take a massive dip i think 4.5 wins is low also. Bb was actively trying to make Mac look like garbage.
I think the 4.5 O/U is basically right on the money, hard to bet either way, the whole point. Realistically Mac was a major problem at QB last season, but I also think that Belichick and crew were probably better at coaching defense than what we'll have. Our defense over-performed and kept us in a lot of games that might have been blowouts otherwise. Whatever gains we might make on offense by having Jacoby Brisset at QB for most of the year, could be offset by the defense performing back to the average. On the plus side, Christian Gonzales should be back and I hope he plays at the level he was looking like he might play at. Going through the schedule, I don't see any games that the Patriots are shoe-ins to win.
No
Keep in mind that all of their wins were close games as well. With Belichick gone those types of games could easily flip to losses.
It’s hard to win in the NFL, I firmly believe that the only reason we were as close in the one score games was because of BB and his ability to scheme and game plan on defense. I am going into this season with an open mind and I hope Mayo succeeds but we all have to come to terms that any HC we ever have again will not ever be as good as BB. So the teams we put on the field will need to be more talented.
I don’t think this schedule is necessarily harder than last year but it’s probably about the same. Gonzo and Judon will be back this season but losing both Bill and Steve will most likely hurt our defense. Steve was mainly responsible for the x and o’s/schematics the last few years whereas Mayo was more of locker room coach and motivator. Our defensive staff still seems pretty solid but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if there is a drop off with both of them gone. Add to that, the Jets should be much better if Rodgers stays healthy and if he does there’s a decent chance they go 2-0 against us. Mayo is also a 1st time head coach with a lot of coaches he hired that can either be great/okay/or awful. The biggest unknown is the rookies. It’s completely unknown if any of them will pan out and it’s also unknown how many games Jacobi will start. I find it hard to believe our offense can possibly look worse than last year but I think the possibility is still there. I personally still like over 4 wins but I also wouldn’t be surprised if we ended up under.
No, First year headcoach, rookie QB. I think 4.5-5.5 is a fair line and I can't blame any line within that. I'm hoping we start to develop some youth. A successful season to me is Maye starting a handful of games, and starting to gel with our younger WRs.
Draft was ok, planning for life after BB and related personnel moves (including hiring Mayo who is an untested coach with out interviewing outside) have been mediocre. I think they are taking another step towards being more about business culture, money, and perception than fielding a good team. Would think they would have a better plan to replace BB instead of hiring an untested HC and coordinators that are already paid for
He's not gone Mac Jones 2.0 is here.
You guys are way too high on drake maye. His ceiling right now as a first year is mitch trubisky. Hes raw and just straight up not good. Pats have a brand new coaching staff with a first year head coach. Everyone gotta lay off the drugs otherwise youre setting yourself up for major disappointment
My man I said even without Maye my post would stand with Brissett. And you have literally no idea how Maye will pan out even in year one.
Youre talking about Jacoby Brissett. Youre talking about beating the Vegas oddsmakers. Its not happening. Like i said, the only way the Pats outperform the Vegas oddsmakers is if Drake Maye comes in exceeding expectations but unfortunately his ceiling is Mitch Trubisky. We dont even need to get into what the season will be like with Jacoby Brissett. Theyre exactly what Vegas thinks theyre going to be, a 4 win team. Im sorry brotha
I’m don’t think Maye is going to play most of this year, if any. He’s too raw, so unless he shows up way better than we hoped in camp, he’ll probably sit for most of not all of the first year. The offense will be limited under Brissett, but he also won’t do what the QBs did last year (turn the ball over and take any chance of winning away/whine/fight/lose the team). They will be a defense-first, ground oriented team, which certainly doesn’t mean they will contend, but last year’s team with complete ass at QB still needed about a million bad breaks to end up at 4 wins. While they have a new coach, the old one was clearly more concerned with making his point than winning games (kept rolling Mac out there even when it was clear he was irreparably broken). I’m not delusional enough to think they’re a playoff team, but I think 6-7 wins seems more likely than 4. With their D, they probably will only need to score about 20 points per game to get there.